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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ukip are fielding candidates in three-quarters of the local

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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,308
    edited April 2013
    In the early 1970s I was living outside Winchester. It was very pleasant. I recall Winchester got its first supermarkets at that time. I also recall power cuts and strikes dominating the news.

    In the mid 70s I was living in Germany where my dad was in the army. Even to a school boy trips home to Dundee were fairly painful. It was depressing and depressed.

    The housing was shocking to anyone used to Germany (several relatives I visited still had outside loos in the common stair), it was grimey and dirty and there seemed to be buildings in a poor state of repair everywhere.

    In the later 1970s we returned to Scotland and it was starting to improve. Presumably this was the start of new money from the north sea but a lot of the slums had gone and they even closed up the old air raid shelters we used to play in in the park. But it was still a long way short of England, let alone Germany.

    In 1980, in a wave of patriotism, my dad bought one of the first Leyland Metros. Again, having been used to German cars that was a shocker. The car reflected all the care and attention to detail you might have expected Robbo and friends to have lavished on it. Bits starting falling off from pretty much day 1. Possibly the worst car we ever had.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,325
    @Stodge

    Sorry, David who??

    :)
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    RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413

    " HMG was not constantly trying to organise peoples' lives.

    I fear you are losing your marbles, Mr Llama. Before Thatcher, you couldn't take money out of the country without government permission (even minor amounts had to be entered in your passport). You couldn't put an extension lead on your phone. The government rationed mortgages. Companies couldn't set their own prices without submitting a justification to the bureaucrats. Employers couldn't set wages without permission. You couldn't get a job in many industries without joining a politically-motivated union. You couldn't buy and sell shares except to a monopoly of jobbers, and the fees were fixed. If you wanted to know what was on the TV, you had to buy a state-approved magazine.

    When it comes to the government organising our lives, we are infinitely better off than we were then.
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    Peter_2Peter_2 Posts: 146


    . Is it a hate crime to suggest that people might not have that great a command of the English language ?

    Under NuLabour and their chinless wonder successors with their guarantees written on soggy toilet paper, yes.

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    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578

    "Had the 1980s instigated a proper savings culture and given future pension provision the attention it needed, we would not be in the mess we are today (though both the Major and Blair administrations are also at fault)."

    Legislation to promote occupational pension schemes pre-dated Thatcher and on the whole was very successful. The UK was probably the best prepared in Europe by the end of the 1980s. The rot set in when companies were allowed to take contribution holidays if their schemes were in surplus (as many were) and then Brown got his sticky mits on the levers and totally destroyed they whole thing - for the private sector.

    IIRC the Thatcher government changed the law so that employers could no longer require staff to contribute to in-house pension schemes as a condition of employment. Previously this had been the norm. The change came about at the behest of private pension providers who proceeded to mis-sell pension plans using wildly optimistic forecasts of investment growth and many people were effectively conned into leaving much better employer-sponsored pension schemes. The first of many blunders which destroyed what had been one of the world's best pension systems. Then Major allowed local authorities to underfund pension schemes as part of the "solution" to the financial losses caused by uncollected poll tax. And Brown continued the process, as you point out.
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,035
    malcolmg said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Peter_2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Hmm What a piffling matter to resign over, a few misplaced tweets. The media storm would have blown over in a day or so, in fact was it even a storm. Storm in an eggcup more likely. I wouldn't have resigned if I was in her shoes, mind you I doubt my various comments here would attract a Daily Mail journo as much as detailing my private life on Twitter would per se.

    Another victim of the intolerance of the PC-brigade. Still she is lucky. She might have gone to jail. Or is she not out of the woods yet?
    Just had a look at her tweets again. The one regarding getting drunk on her job whilst being underage is probably sackable. Why would the police bother with any of it though. Is it a hate crime to suggest that people might not have that great a command of the English language ?

    People have been jailed for less.
    I doubt they've been jailed for writing them when they are 14.

    This is just another pointer towards the fact that, in future, politicians will end up being identikit, soulless individuals who have yearned for power from the cradle, and who have never said anything that could be misconstrued in the future. Politicians of the type of Boris and Ken will be even more of an exception.

    She was 14 when she wrote them, for Pete's sake.
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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    AveryLP said:

    Take today's ONS news on Industrial production:

    UK industrial production rose by 1.0 per cent month-on-month in February, when compared with the previous month, but even so remained at the same level as in September 2012.
    ...
    George is a skilled doctor. The English patient is slowly recovering. We must be patient and keep faith.

    ALP, the great victory of your hero is that industrial production is back up to the heady heights achieved six months ago. Forgive me, but that is stagnation, not slow recovery.

    Given all the desperate pump-priming for a house price boom that there was in the budget and it is obvious that George has given up on the rebalancing that is both so necessary and to be fair difficult. He's going for debt-fuelled growth as his last best hope of keeping his job beyond 2015.
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    The rot set in when companies were allowed to take contribution holidays if their schemes were in surplus

    Legislation to tax surpluses (calculated on a fairly draconian basis) had a huge impact as many reasonable employers who wanted to ensure their pension schemes were well funded were forced into taking contribution holidays. That was under Thatcher's government.

    Thatcher's government also ended compulsory pension scheme membership and introduced personal pensions. A combination that led to the great pension miss-selling scandal down the line (but probably one that it would be unfair to blame her Government for).

    Thatcher's government also introduced legislation that protected members' benefits in many circumstances (particularly for those who left schemes early). Great news for the members concerned but, as with all legislation that turned defined benefits schemes from vague promises into guaranteed benefits, definitely a major reason for the later decline in defined benefit provision in the private sector.
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    A tasteful present - the Maggie Mug.

    http://www.maggiemug.co.uk/
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,308

    AveryLP said:

    Take today's ONS news on Industrial production:

    UK industrial production rose by 1.0 per cent month-on-month in February, when compared with the previous month, but even so remained at the same level as in September 2012.
    ...
    George is a skilled doctor. The English patient is slowly recovering. We must be patient and keep faith.

    ALP, the great victory of your hero is that industrial production is back up to the heady heights achieved six months ago. Forgive me, but that is stagnation, not slow recovery.

    Given all the desperate pump-priming for a house price boom that there was in the budget and it is obvious that George has given up on the rebalancing that is both so necessary and to be fair difficult. He's going for debt-fuelled growth as his last best hope of keeping his job beyond 2015.
    It is a slow and uncertain business but I cannot help feeling that there has been a change in direction for the economy in the last few months and that things will now start to improve. David Smith in his ST piece showed how domestic borrowing had been shrinking for some years, a quite unheard of development and domestic balance sheets are now relatively strong. http://www.economicsuk.com/blog/

    Add in the new wave of investment in the north sea and elsewhere and it seems likely to me that the growth forecast for the current year will prove to be too cautious. Whether that will do the government any good is, of course, another matter.

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    RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited April 2013
    O/T Betting post: US Presidential 2016

    I see Shadsy has wised up to the mismatch between the odds on Hillary Clinton and on the winner being female. 7/2 on the latter still available from PP and WH. It does look as though she'll run:

    http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/clinton-2016-political-pundits-hillary-presidential-run-article-1.1310037

    http://swampland.time.com/2013/04/08/clinton-insiders-hillary-needs-100-million/

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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,003
    Best post for a long time, tim!
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    JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "BBC Parliament will be re-broadcasting the BBC's 1979 election programme in full, this Saturday from 9am.

    Should be good..."



    Particularly the bit where Peregrine Worsthorne refers to the SNP, in the past tense, as a "passing fad".

    Nostradamus, eat your heart out.
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    It does look as though she'll run:

    She is certainly doing things that one would expect from someone preparing to run.

    Has noone told her about Rod Crosby's view that former SoS cant run?
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    @Neil

    "... all legislation that turned defined benefits schemes from vague promises into guaranteed benefits, definitely a major reason for the later decline in defined benefit provision in the private sector."

    I am sorry, Mr. Neil, it maybe as Mr. Navabi said that I am losing my marbles but I don't understand you there.

    What vague promises existed? Pensions schemes used to have rules that set down what members were entitled to, didn't they? I am sure they did, I remember being given a booklet when I started work which went on about 1/60th of final salary per year of employment and what would happen in case of death in service etc.. They weren't any vague promises but statements of entitlements.

    Could you explain what you meant a little more, please?
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Charles Kennedy:
    "When I started knocking on Highland doors in May 1983, two things struck me more than any other. First was the sheer depth of hostility towards the Tories in general. Second was the particular hostility towards Margaret Thatcher and her local ministerial spear-carrier, energy minister and incumbent MP of 13 years' standing, Hamish Gray. People would denounce them unequivocally, often in graphic terms. More than once the view was advanced that it was a pity the IRA had not succeeded in their ultimate objective when they bombed the Grand Hotel in Brighton. This is not the Highland way.

    And then, perversely, would come the throwaway, sign-off remark – to the effect of: "At least you know where you stand with Maggie – she hates us and we hate her.""
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/apr/09/scotland-margaret-thatcher-mission-impossible

    Anyone notice the mistake? Too many whiskies over the years maybe...
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    RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited April 2013
    Neil said:


    She is certainly doing things that one would expect from someone preparing to run.

    Has noone told her about Rod Crosby's view that former SoS cant run?

    In all seriousness, I think there's a very good chance that she'll either run herself, or, if for some reason she feels she can't, she'll put her considerable weight and fund-raising capability behind some other female candidate. I know some formidable expat Democrat women activists, amongst whom she is adored, and there's definitely a very strong feeling that a woman ought to get the gig next time (they felt she was robbed last time).
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,937
    The 70s were good, the 80s were better. I started the decade as a teenage mod going to see the Jam whenever I could and wondering whether to get into ska, and ended it as an unemployed father with a wife, a flat and two years in Spain under my belt. The flat, two bedrooms in Archway, cost £60,000; we sold it in 1994 for £80,000 and bought a three bedroomed house just off Hornsey Road for £125,000. I was on £24,000 my missus was on £20,000 - decent money but nothing special. Today, people like we were in London back then have absolutely no hope of getting on like we did. We were probably among the last of the truly blessed generations.
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    edited April 2013



    What vague promises existed? Pensions schemes used to have rules that set down what members were entitled to, didn't they? I am sure they did, I remember being given a booklet when I started work which went on about 1/60th of final salary per year of employment and what would happen in case of death in service etc.. They weren't any vague promises but statements of entitlements.

    There would have been quite a lot of vagueness about your pension benefits in the early days, HL.

    Consider just two areas: (1) pension increases and (2) benefits for early leavers

    In the early days there was no entitlement to pension increases in retirement. Schemes could make payments if they could afford them but didnt have to. So, if the scheme was underfunded, schemes just skimped on the pension increases in order to keep the costs under control (to counteract any poor investment performance or improved longevity). Now this could be considered unfair so Government's acted to require a minimum level of pension increases each year. Good news for members but this changed the nature of the liability from something that was flexible (reduce pension increases in bad times to offset other areas) to a more guaranteed benefit (less flexibility to reduce pension increases to offset other drivers of costs).

    Also in the early days your pension was a promise *if you stayed in the scheme until retirement*. It was quite possible to lose your entitlement if you had the temerity to change job. Indeed many schemes used early leavers to subsidise the cost of the scheme. Again this was unfair and Governments acted on this but again in doing so they changed the nature of defined benefit schemes and, as with changes to pension increase requirements, caused many private sector employers to ultimately abandon defined benefit schemes (when they found they couldnt cope with further longevity improvements or lower interest rates).

    I know this isnt consistent with the thesis that Gordon Brown killed off defined benefit pension schemes in the private sector but this is because he didnt.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,308
    "Anyone notice the mistake? Too many whiskies over the years maybe... "

    Talk about answering your own question.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,987
    Mr. Kelly, that's not as bad as what King Tigranes said of the approach of Lucullus immediately prior to the Battle of Tigranocerta.
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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    DavidL said:

    AveryLP said:

    Take today's ONS news on Industrial production:

    UK industrial production rose by 1.0 per cent month-on-month in February, when compared with the previous month, but even so remained at the same level as in September 2012.
    ...
    George is a skilled doctor. The English patient is slowly recovering. We must be patient and keep faith.

    ALP, the great victory of your hero is that industrial production is back up to the heady heights achieved six months ago. Forgive me, but that is stagnation, not slow recovery.

    Given all the desperate pump-priming for a house price boom that there was in the budget and it is obvious that George has given up on the rebalancing that is both so necessary and to be fair difficult. He's going for debt-fuelled growth as his last best hope of keeping his job beyond 2015.
    It is a slow and uncertain business but I cannot help feeling that there has been a change in direction for the economy in the last few months and that things will now start to improve. David Smith in his ST piece showed how domestic borrowing had been shrinking for some years, a quite unheard of development and domestic balance sheets are now relatively strong. http://www.economicsuk.com/blog/

    Add in the new wave of investment in the north sea and elsewhere and it seems likely to me that the growth forecast for the current year will prove to be too cautious. Whether that will do the government any good is, of course, another matter.

    I agree that the growth forecast for this year has a decent chance of turning out to be too pessimistic, and the effects of North Sea Oil volatility on recent years - depressing growth in the last few, perhaps not doing so for the next few - is one reason for this.

    However, we still need to find more ways of earning a living that don't depend on oil and gas or financial services. The only piece of good news on that front from the last three years is the figures on car manufacture, but the picture in aggregate has been poor. In particular there doesn't appear to be much sign of the investment that would be required to allow us to compete in new sectors.

    The news on household debt is great, though. Thanks for that link. I'm amazed that it has happened at a time of falling real incomes, but I would guess that it shows how in tune with the austerity message much of the population have been. Worth noting at this point that the OBR's first forecasts in 2010 were that household debt would continue to grow, and their failure to do so must be on the main reasons - along with the large decreases in North Sea output - that growth has fallen so far below those initial forecasts.

    Those household figures do make me feel more optimistic now. To reduce household debt by about one-sixth (relative to income) is good progress over four years. I can start to believe that we can pull through this after all.
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    JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    edited April 2013
    "Mr. Kelly, that's not as bad as what King Tigranes said of the approach of Lucullus immediately prior to the Battle of Tigranocerta."

    Yes, but King Tingranes was a blithering idiot.
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    Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    I've just made a political donation for the first time in my life - to Better Together. If they prevail a fitting legacy to Mrs T.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    @OblitusSumMe

    I do love your new screen-name ;^ )
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,864
    DavidL said:

    AveryLP said:

    Take today's ONS news on Industrial production:

    UK industrial production rose by 1.0 per cent month-on-month in February, when compared with the previous month, but even so remained at the same level as in September 2012.
    ...
    George is a skilled doctor. The English patient is slowly recovering. We must be patient and keep faith.

    ALP, the great victory of your hero is that industrial production is back up to the heady heights achieved six months ago. Forgive me, but that is stagnation, not slow recovery.

    Given all the desperate pump-priming for a house price boom that there was in the budget and it is obvious that George has given up on the rebalancing that is both so necessary and to be fair difficult. He's going for debt-fuelled growth as his last best hope of keeping his job beyond 2015.
    It is a slow and uncertain business but I cannot help feeling that there has been a change in direction for the economy in the last few months and that things will now start to improve. David Smith in his ST piece showed how domestic borrowing had been shrinking for some years, a quite unheard of development and domestic balance sheets are now relatively strong. http://www.economicsuk.com/blog/

    Add in the new wave of investment in the north sea and elsewhere and it seems likely to me that the growth forecast for the current year will prove to be too cautious. Whether that will do the government any good is, of course, another matter.

    I wish I shared people's confidence in the economy. I actually think we have taken a step back in the past two or three months. I'm not surprised that those of a Conservative disposition are desperately talking up the economy (while those on the Labour side talk it down) and I'm also reminded of the comment that the Devil can quote the Scriptures to make a point.

    I thought the US job numbers last Friday disappointing and the continuing weakness in oil also suggests to me a struggling global economy. There are those who paint a "golden" scenario of 2.5% growth in 2014 as a springboard to a successful election campaign for the Conservatives. Maybe so, but at this moment I can't see it.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,308
    edited April 2013
    @OblitusSumMe
    "Those household figures do make me feel more optimistic now. To reduce household debt by about one-sixth (relative to income) is good progress over four years. I can start to believe that we can pull through this after all."



    Well it is better than the reverse but I would not get too excited. What the figures show is that is has been very hard to get a mortgage over the last 5 years. Most domestic debt is mortgage and those paying off their mortgages have no longer been matched by first time buyers coming in. In short the decline in domestic debt is not necessarily because we have been buying less foreign tat (the evidence on that is mixed) but because the bubble on our housing market has been deflating.

    If George's scheme of guaranteeing deposits works properly this will reverse this trend. I agree with you that this does not resolve our underlying problems which are fundamentally we do not produce enough goods and services the world wants to buy.

    Improving the balance of payments remains key to our longer term success and again the evidence is at best mixed. Exports to non EU are up a rather less than staggering 0.6% now year on year (it used to be better and is volatile) while EU exports are down 5.4%. Along with the north sea it is the biggest drag on our growth figure.

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    RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    tim said:

    James Tapsfield ‏@JamesTapsfield 24s
    Potentially 7.5 hours of thatcher tributes in parly tomorrow. Oof

    I expect Dennis Skinner's will be the most entertaining.
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    JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    ChrisA -

    Without wanting to be too controversial at a time like this, in all honesty the existence of the Scottish Parliament and the very fact that we're having an independence referendum is a direct (and some would say "fitting") legacy of Thatcherism. Support for full independence essentially doubled over the 1980s, and the devolution settlement that Labour was proposing was beefed up at some speed.

    The Daily Mail's headline "The Woman Who Saved Britain" could scarcely have been more ironic. The British state was under no real threat prior to Thatcherism.
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    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,203
    UKIP are certainly putting up in a lot of our Shropshire UA contests. Although some are clearly paper candidates. As a statement of intent it is quite impressive and it will make the results very interesting.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,706
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I couldn't agree more and yet I expect some will not see it as such.

    RT @LewisCPS: Protesting a funeral is a little Westboro Baptist no?
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,706
    @JamesKelly

    Alex Massie wrote a very thoughtful piece on Thatcher & Scotland yesterday:

    "More than any other single event, the Poll Tax galvanised support for Home Rule in Scotland. Civic Scotland – whatever that is, as the Lady might have put it – united in morally-superior opposition to Thatcherism and all its works. Though John Major won a reprieve for Toryism north of the border it was but a minor flickering of a once great party. The Poll Tax plus the party’s principled but doomed opposition to devolution destroyed Toryism in Scotland."

    The rise of the nationalists was not immediate but it is telling that the SNP’s first permanent breakthroughs were in Aberdeenshire, Angus and Perthshire. None of these were or are hotbeds of socialism. They were, and remain, small-c conservative places. As Toryism was tarnished, so there was an opportunity for the Conservatives to be supplanted by a different “patriotic party”.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/alex-massie/2013/04/margaret-thatcher-and-scotland-a-story-of-mutual-incomprehension/
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Another PBer linked to this excellent prog about the fall of the Callaghan HMG a few days ago - its even more poignant now given Mrs T's passing. All because of one vote...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1WRVVdGQcN0
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    tim said:

    Paris Brown: Kent youth PCC resigns after Twitter row

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-22083032

    What a betrayal of the mandate.
    Swept to office on a huge wave of emotion, the people of Kent must be devastated.

    Why did she resign ? Didn't PBTories say she represented present day youth ? That's how they are apparently !
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    @DavidL

    "...I cannot help feeling that there has been a change in direction for the economy in the last few months..."

    I am with you on this, Mr. L.. In the two areas where I spend most of my time these days, West Sussex and the West end of London, it feels more like a boom than a recession. I cannot remember a time when there was so much building work going on. Down here thousands of houses are going up (3,000 on one site alone that I visited this morning) and on the Burgess Hill Industrial Estate new factory units are being built on a big plot that has been empty and up for sale for at least twenty years.

    Two thoughts occur though. The figures that everybody quotes are those for the nation as a whole, so is what I am seeing simply evidence that the economy of London and the South East is becoming even more decoupled from the rest of the Country?

    Secondly, what benefit is all this activity actually going to have for the ordinary Joe? Yesterday morning I was chatting to a local lad in the paper shop. He was 20, left school at 16 and had never worked, though he said he wanted to. He was living with his girlfriend and their daughter on the village council estate and doing so entirely on benefits. Nice lad, probably not very bright and with an appalling education and next to no skills that an employer would want. In the afternoon I was in Wimpole Street where an old house was being renovated, not one of the builders or tradesman working on the site was English, they were all from Eastern Europe. How do we connect this "boom" to the lad in the paper shop? What is the point of growth if it doesn't lift the likes of that boy and his young family up with it?
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    carl said:

    Ouch. Tory meltdown on the cards.

    Might Britain get its second female PM in 2013?

    I tell you, one T May should not be underestimated.

    I prefer the Dave and Oz combo !

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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    OT This made me laugh - when a dog is as disloyal as a cat - burglar discovered feeding the dog...

    http://www.happyplace.com/23012/dog-leaves-with-burglar-during-burglary
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    Peter_2Peter_2 Posts: 146
    surbiton said:

    tim said:

    Paris Brown: Kent youth PCC resigns after Twitter row

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-22083032

    What a betrayal of the mandate.
    Swept to office on a huge wave of emotion, the people of Kent must be devastated.

    Why did she resign ? Didn't PBTories say she represented present day youth ? That's how they are apparently !
    Yep, she was hounded out for not sharing the views of the metropolitan elite.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    edited April 2013
    Mr. Neil,

    Thank you for answering my question. I now understand what you were getting at. We can discuss the effect Mr. Brown's withdrawal of £5bn a year from pension schemes another time. Perhaps over a glass?
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Mr.Brooke and Mr.Pole

    Please do not confuse between Balance of Trade and Balance of Payments.

    In fact, Britain has always had [ for a long time, at least ] a BoT deficit. It is paid for by the surplus earned by invisibles. That is why you lot worship the City.

    Due to Thatcher's big bang that was further accentuated. I believe it is an unhealthy reliance and probably the main raeson why our overall GDP is still substantially lower than its 2008 peak. Those who mock the Eurozone countries, apart from the real basket cases, their GDP's have crossed 2008.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Dadge said:

    tim said:

    Paris Brown: Kent youth PCC resigns after Twitter row

    I think it's a mistake for Ann Barnes not to have apologized for not vetting her properly and thereby allowing all this to happen to the girl. https://www.kent-pcc.gov.uk/crimecommissioner-files/News/Statement-from-Ann-Barnes.pdf
    Didn't she come on Breakfast TV to show off her new recruit ?
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,706
    The Scottish Greens make the case that:

    "The survey of 1,002 people in Scotland shows that around three-fifths (58 per cent) agree that consideration of a fairer and more equal society is more important than whether they will be slightly richer or poorer."

    http://www.scotsman.com/the-scotsman/politics/independence-poll-shows-desire-for-fairer-society-1-2882134

    What they didn't mention is what support for Independence was:

    Yes: 31
    No: 49
    Undecided: 19

    Funny that......

    http://www.panelbase.com/news/GreenPartyforpublication09042013.pdf
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    RT @Maylor: 2011/12 welfare expenditure: 42.3% elderly, 20.8% low income, 18.4% families, 15.5% sick/disabled, 2.6% unemployed. Source: DWP
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    RT @nicholaswatt: Lady Thatcher story from Martin Argles: MT visited Harold Wilson privately in hosp shortly before death. Brought flowers to boost morale
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    JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    Carlotta, where are you getting those figures from? They don't appear to be contained anywhere in the Panelbase file you linked to.
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    edited April 2013
    @HurstLlama

    I hope to make it to the DDD next week if you around then, how many pints will it take to make you accept that Brown didnt unilaterally kill off defined benefit pension schemes in the private sector? ;)
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    @TGOHF

    Scary stuff indeed, Mr. Ghost, one can only hope that the author is wrong. One bit that particularly caught my attention was this:

    "This out-of-control public sector machine used easy funding conditions through the 2000s to bolster the ranks of an already bloated bureaucracy - the assumption was that such captive groups would vote for their ultimate pay -masters come election time."

    He could have truthfully written that about the UK, indeed wasn't that Brown's strategy?
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Neil said:

    It does look as though she'll run:

    She is certainly doing things that one would expect from someone preparing to run.

    Has noone told her about Rod Crosby's view that former SoS cant run?
    That is why Republican's have been begging Condi to run !

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    Sir_GeoffSir_Geoff Posts: 41
    Labour have announced shortlisting for Colne Valley and Calder Valley PCs, the former being AWS, the latter open. Applications 19 & 26 April respectively, interviews in June. Both are winnable seats with some degree of a three-way about them over recent years.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,706

    Carlotta, where are you getting those figures from? They don't appear to be contained anywhere in the Panelbase file you linked to.

    Q.8 (Right hand column)

    Totals for

    Yes (308)
    No (488)
    Undecided (192)

    Total Base (1002)
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    OT A mouse that's been living in my bedroom for over a week has just been caught by a kitty - I'm feeling a bit sorry for it after resisting capture for so long in the face of feline guards who've been pretty complacent to the nibbling of my skirting boards.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Neil said:

    @HurstLlama

    I hope to make it to the DDD next week if you around then, how many pints will it take to make you accept that Brown didnt unilaterally kill off defined benefit pension schemes in the private sector? ;)


    Not many, Mr. Neil, in fact none at all. However, either your bank balance or my liver will collapse before I'll accept that his changes didn't cause serious damage and deliver the coup de grace.

    I am up in Town on the 19th, but I am not sure if I will be able to get across to the Dirty Dicks do.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    Good to see Maggie was frugal to the last, refusing a flypast as it would be too expensive!
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    Plato said:

    OT A mouse that's been living in my bedroom for over a week has just been caught by a kitty - I'm feeling a bit sorry for it after resisting capture for so long in the face of feline guards who've been pretty complacent to the nibbling of my skirting boards.

    It's the circle of live :)
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724

    Plato said:

    OT A mouse that's been living in my bedroom for over a week has just been caught by a kitty - I'm feeling a bit sorry for it after resisting capture for so long in the face of feline guards who've been pretty complacent to the nibbling of my skirting boards.

    It's the circle of live :)
    It made the fatal mistake of moving from the wardrobe to the space behind the radiator - via under the bed. My cat with most attitude [Choo-Choo in tribute to TopCat] made the target.

    How it got up two flights of stairs in the first place is a mystery - I assume an inept kitty brought it in and then lost it.
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    Plato said:

    OT A mouse that's been living in my bedroom for over a week has just been caught by a kitty - I'm feeling a bit sorry for it after resisting capture for so long in the face of feline guards who've been pretty complacent to the nibbling of my skirting boards.

    I am surprised that the mouse wasn't put off living there by the smell of large predators.

    My flat had a mouse problem, some dried snake poo strategically placed where they gained access seems to have solved the problem.

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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,325

    Plato said:

    OT A mouse that's been living in my bedroom for over a week has just been caught by a kitty - I'm feeling a bit sorry for it after resisting capture for so long in the face of feline guards who've been pretty complacent to the nibbling of my skirting boards.

    It's the circle of live :)
    Yesterday I saw a neighbourhood cat run along our rear garden fence with a pigeon in its mouth...
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,214
    @Tim: That was his motivation, was it?

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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    Tim - would agree with that, and there is no electoral reason for it either, but it was not Maggie's decision and the Barclays paid her Ritz bill!
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    "My cat with most attitude [Choo-Choo in tribute to TopCat]"

    You have a cat that wears a polo necked sweater? Besides did Choo-Choo really have the most attitude in TC's gang? I rather thought that honour went to Fancy?
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited April 2013
    @Hertsmere_Pubgoer

    "My flat had a mouse problem, some dried snake poo strategically placed where they gained access seems to have solved the problem."

    I never knew snakes pooed. My brother had loads of them [and one kept escaping - it was a cunning cream and brown thing that ate frozen mice] and I was rather fond of slow worms but never noticed droppings - well I never, you learn all sorts on PB!

    Snakes are greatly misunderstood creatures - I guess it's a bit like spiders. You'd never get me to pick one up unless it was really small or really big and slow/didn't bite.

    This spider video is !!!

    http://video.nationalgeographic.com/video/animals/bugs-animals/spiders-and-scorpions/tarantula_goliath/
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    @HurstLlama

    Been in Paris today, catching up with old friends and clients. Gloomy bunch of people - they refer to the fact France is down 0.5% rather than flat as the "Hollande" effect. Large numbers reported to be leaving the country. One old mate who fled Somerset a decade ago is of the view he would definitely come back (still has a few fields and a shed in the old place) if it wasn't for the prospect of Miliband in 2015...
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2013
    Superb comedy from Lord Saatchi as he displays precisely why nobody should ever believe public relations wonks.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,308
    @HurstLama

    I agree. The failure of our education system to enable our children for the world of work, both in the skills that they need and in the attitude and commitment they require is undoubtedly our greatest failure of the last 30 years.

    A prizes for all culture where every bit of work gets a badge, where results inflation means real effort is not recognised or rewarded and where it is somehow ok to take as many attempts as you like to pass so many college level exams means that these poor kids are given no chance at all of competing with those from more demanding backgrounds and environments. It really depresses me that those that create such environments just will not recognise the damage that they do.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,706
    Mick_Pork said:

    Superb comedy from Lord Saatchi as he displays precisely why nobody should ever believe public relations wonks.

    No, he was actually arguing that the best advertising in the world cannot save a poor product - something Saatchi (which I worked with for two decades) fervently believed in.....

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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited April 2013

    "My cat with most attitude [Choo-Choo in tribute to TopCat]"

    You have a cat that wears a polo necked sweater? Besides did Choo-Choo really have the most attitude in TC's gang? I rather thought that honour went to Fancy?

    Fancy was terribly self -regarding - its when you get one like Benny, its all downhill...

    May I recommend @CatFoodBreath on Twitter as an amusing one to follow - he's very funny and stays in character relentlessly.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    I also see there was cheering at the NUS conference at news of Baroness Thatcher's passing, no surprise there then!
    http://thinkprogress.org/politics/2013/04/08/1832551/thatcher-dies/?mobile=n
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,214
    @Tim: So no reason for your comment then.

    BTW I agree with you that protecting wealthy pensioners is absurd given the problems we face. It would have been better to admit that that promise could not - indeed, should not - have been maintained once the coalition government was in place. He should have said that wealthy pensioners would understand the need to do the right thing vis a vis poor pensioners and the poor young and poor families.

    But I think that Cameron lacks that kind of courage.

    Plus, cynically, I suspect that Labour (and maybe even you?) would have attacked him from here to kingdom come for betraying the old etc. See, for instance, Labour's attacks when the government tried to do the right thing re the charity scam for the rich and even removing child benefit from the rich (even accepting the marginal tax rates issue you've highlighted).
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    HYUFD said:

    I also see there was cheering at the NUS conference at news of Baroness Thatcher's passing, no surprise there then!
    http://thinkprogress.org/politics/2013/04/08/1832551/thatcher-dies/?mobile=n

    I have been respectfully quiet !

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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724

    Mick_Pork said:

    Superb comedy from Lord Saatchi as he displays precisely why nobody should ever believe public relations wonks.

    No, he was actually arguing that the best advertising in the world cannot save a poor product - something Saatchi (which I worked with for two decades) fervently believed in.....

    The most memorable example of that for me was this "Would you ever buy a second Pot Noodle?"

    And exactly the same applies to PR - you can't save an organisation's eff ups using spin, its much better to fess up and then move on.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I see that the news remains dominated by Margaret Thatcher. Has she been resurrected?
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    TNS/BMRB:

    Con - 25% (-2)
    Lab - 40 (+3)
    UKIP - 14 (-3)
    Lib dems 10 (nc)

    So Tory support is currently exactly half of Mrs Thatcher's approval rating (although that was ICM).
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    OT Any of our historians know the answer to this?

    RT @DawnSunrise1: My Dad has asked me to tweet this for him: Does anyone know of any surviving pilots of the Vulcan B1, or is he the last one!? #VulcanPilot
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    IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    So it looks like Labour's response to benefit reform wasn't a total disaster.

    Osborne should be on TV more. Nasty Nasty party.
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    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    IOS said:

    So it looks like Labour's response to benefit reform wasn't a total disaster.

    Osborne should be on TV more. Nasty Nasty party.

    What response?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    Surbiton - Good for you, although from the report some students were rather critical of the most vociferous of the left!
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    OMG - Mouse Update

    He's ALIVE - I've just heard him nibbling, it was clearly another less smart mouse that I saw being transported in a kitty's mouth across the carpet earlier.

    I'm rather pleased - this is weird.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Mr L., I agree with you about the education system (save that I would argue it has been sub-standard for a lot longer than 30 years, more like 140 years). However, even if it were miraculously fixed today the effects would not be felt for another 20+ years. Meanwhile what do we do about the likes of that young lad in the paper shop?

    We can't just condemn him and his like to a life on benefits, in the hope that by about 2040 things will get better. That would be immoral and self-defeating. Yet he doesn't have the skills to get a job or the mental resources to break out form the rut he is in. Meanwhile, companies can recruit from overseas to staff the "boom" that is going on.
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    IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Philiph

    To not go bat shit crazy. A swear its a function of the blogging age. Everyone always thinks you need something there and then. And then when you don't they ALL over react saying disaster etc.

    Labour will come out with its proposals in Feb 2015. Just like it did in Feb 1997.
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    currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    Secondly, what benefit is all this activity actually going to have for the ordinary Joe? Yesterday morning I was chatting to a local lad in the paper shop. He was 20, left school at 16 and had never worked, though he said he wanted to. He was living with his girlfriend and their daughter on the village council estate and doing so entirely on benefits. Nice lad, probably not very bright and with an appalling education and next to no skills that an employer would want. In the afternoon I was in Wimpole Street where an old house was being renovated, not one of the builders or tradesman working on the site was English, they were all from Eastern Europe. How do we connect this "boom" to the lad in the paper shop? What is the point of growth if it doesn't lift the likes of that boy and his young family up with it?

    HurstLlama
    6:24PM

    This in a nutshell is the UKs problem, over the past 15 years too many young people have been poorly educated and have been convinced into believing that effort and hard work are not required to succeed, all you have to do is appear on X-factor. There is also a feeling of entitlement and laziness. We regularly take on electrical and mechanical apprentices and it is astonishing how poor their basic educational skills are, some of the CVs we receive would be laughable if they weren't so sad. At least 50% of our apprentices do not make it through their 4 year training simply through a cant be bothered attitude and lack of effort. Our starting rate of pay for a 16/17 year old is £160 per week and for a 4th year apprentice it is £400 per week. If they make is through the 4 years they have a trade for life and will always be employed.

    We are currently advertising now for more apprentices and amazingly have received just one application. We have tried the government scheme where you get £2000 towards costs if you employ someone who has been out of work for over 6 months aged 18-24. We have not had a single application through that route. How mad is that? youngsters dont seem to want the jobs we are offering.
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    RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited April 2013
    Cyclefree said:

    But I think that Cameron lacks that kind of courage.

    You mean he keeps his promises.

    The problem with that line of tim's line regarding 'protecting wealthy pensioners' is that it's not true that it would make much difference to break those promises. There are very few wealthy pensioners (IIRC, the proportion who pay higher-rate tax is less than 5%). Very few of those will make extensive use of bus passes, so there's no significant saving there. That leaves only the TV licences - but that only applies to a miniscule number of rich over-75s - and the winter fuel allowance, which is only a few hundred quid. Hardly worth setting up an entire administrative system for, given that 95% of the recipients would still get it (if we took the higher-rate band as the rough cut-off).

    What tim also never mentions is the 'granny tax', because it contradicts his attack line. Funny that.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,706
    ICM Guardian poll on 'Thatcher's Legacy':

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/apr/09/thatcher-flagship-policies-guardian-icm-poll?CMP=twt_gu

    It will be interesting to see breakouts of attitudes among those old enough to remember either significant inflation or the 'service' from nationalised industries.....
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,756

    Mr L., I agree with you about the education system (save that I would argue it has been sub-standard for a lot longer than 30 years, more like 140 years). However, even if it were miraculously fixed today the effects would not be felt for another 20+ years. Meanwhile what do we do about the likes of that young lad in the paper shop?

    We can't just condemn him and his like to a life on benefits, in the hope that by about 2040 things will get better. That would be immoral and self-defeating. Yet he doesn't have the skills to get a job or the mental resources to break out form the rut he is in. Meanwhile, companies can recruit from overseas to staff the "boom" that is going on.

    Mr L you appear to be picking up from where I left off last night. A hard topic and an abattoir full of sacred cows. As a nation our issue is increasingly how to deal with the bottom 10-20% by income and get them moving and self-supporting. It's a mixed up strata between those who can't and those who won't so really what is welfare for. In all cases we shouldn't be accepting lives spent on benefits; welfare should be a temporary measure to get people to work or to improve their skills so they can work.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    What Ho, Mr. Charles,

    If your man was happy to go and live in France a decade ago he should have no fears about living under Labour, besides I am sure he will have his assets arranged in a tax efficient manner.

    Whether we should want him back is another question.
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    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited April 2013
    currystar said:



    This in a nutshell is the UKs problem, over the past 15 years too many young people have been poorly educated and have been convinced into believing that effort and hard work are not required to succeed, all you have to do is appear on X-factor. There is also a feeling of entitlement and laziness. We regularly take on electrical and mechanical apprentices and it is astonishing how poor their basic educational skills are, some of the CVs we receive would be laughable if they weren't so sad. At least 50% of our apprentices do not make it through their 4 year training simply through a cant be bothered attitude and lack of effort. Our starting rate of pay for a 16/17 year old is £160 per week and for a 4th year apprentice it is £400 per week. If they make is through the 4 years they have a trade for life and will always be employed.

    We are currently advertising now for more apprentices and amazingly have received just one application. We have tried the government scheme where you get £2000 towards costs if you employ someone who has been out of work for over 6 months aged 18-24. We have not had a single application through that route. How mad is that? youngsters dont seem to want the jobs we are offering.

    You are back to 'Make work pay'

    Should benefit be dependant on 37 hour week of attendance for community projects and training. There is a life style that needs to be addressed in these instances. It is the reward without responsibilities.
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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @IOS

    'Labour will come out with its proposals in Feb 2015'

    And hope nobody will notice.
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    tim said:


    My comment was to illustrate the fact that Cameron is happy to pay winter fuel allowance to rich pensioners in the Ritz while hitting the disabled and telling them there is no alternative.

    I remember when you used to attack Cameron for not hitting the disabled enough.

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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,864
    john_zims said:

    @IOS

    'Labour will come out with its proposals in Feb 2015'

    And hope nobody will notice.

    I'm no friend of Labour but I wouldn't expect detailed policy specification at this stage.In turn, we've yet to know what the Conservative and Liberal Democrat and indeed UKIP proposals will be.

    Part of the juxtaposition is less to see what is being proposed than to see how close some of the parties are going to be on policy.

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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,756
    philiph said:

    currystar said:



    This in a nutshell is the UKs problem, over the past 15 years too many young people have been poorly educated and have been convinced into believing that effort and hard work are not required to succeed, all you have to do is appear on X-factor. There is also a feeling of entitlement and laziness. We regularly take on electrical and mechanical apprentices and it is astonishing how poor their basic educational skills are, some of the CVs we receive would be laughable if they weren't so sad. At least 50% of our apprentices do not make it through their 4 year training simply through a cant be bothered attitude and lack of effort. Our starting rate of pay for a 16/17 year old is £160 per week and for a 4th year apprentice it is £400 per week. If they make is through the 4 years they have a trade for life and will always be employed.

    We are currently advertising now for more apprentices and amazingly have received just one application. We have tried the government scheme where you get £2000 towards costs if you employ someone who has been out of work for over 6 months aged 18-24. We have not had a single application through that route. How mad is that? youngsters dont seem to want the jobs we are offering.

    You are back to 'Make work pay'

    Should benefit be dependant on 37 hour week of attendance for community projects and training. There is a life style that needs to be addressed in these instances. It is the reward without responsibilities.
    Yes it should and the full range of benefits should be reformed so that benefits are like a wage. Equally since this is your employment you get treated like any other employee, backed by a remedial programme for consistent offenders.
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    edited April 2013


    I am up in Town on the 19th, but I am not sure if I will be able to get across to the Dirty Dicks do.

    If you manage to make it I promise to convince you that the cost to pension schemes was far less than the 5 billion a year figure often quoted ;)

    Otherwise there is a particular talk in the Gresham College brochure that takes my fancy, I'll be sure to see if you might be interested in going too as soon as I know whether I can.

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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,756
    Neil said:


    I am up in Town on the 19th, but I am not sure if I will be able to get across to the Dirty Dicks do.

    If you manage to make it I promise to convince you that the cost to pension schemes was far less than the 5 billion a year figure often quoted ;)

    Otherwise there is a particular talk in the Gresham College brochure that takes my fancy, I'll be sure to see if you might be interested in going to as soon as I know whether I can.

    Give up Neil, us oldies remember what penison scheme were like before the "professionals" got involved. Mr Lama has it right, pensions took a kicking and Brown was the straw that broke the camel's back. If Mr L. gives in I shall personally go down to Sussex and shoot his cat.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    "We are currently advertising now for more apprentices and amazingly have received just one application. We have tried the government scheme where you get £2000 towards costs if you employ someone who has been out of work for over 6 months aged 18-24. We have not had a single application through that route. How mad is that? youngsters dont seem to want the jobs we are offering."

    Mr. Star, that is so depressing. What part of the country are you in?
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013

    AveryLP said:

    Take today's ONS news on Industrial production:

    UK industrial production rose by 1.0 per cent month-on-month in February, when compared with the previous month, but even so remained at the same level as in September 2012.
    ...
    George is a skilled doctor. The English patient is slowly recovering. We must be patient and keep faith.

    ALP, the great victory of your hero is that industrial production is back up to the heady heights achieved six months ago. Forgive me, but that is stagnation, not slow recovery.

    Given all the desperate pump-priming for a house price boom that there was in the budget and it is obvious that George has given up on the rebalancing that is both so necessary and to be fair difficult. He's going for debt-fuelled growth as his last best hope of keeping his job beyond 2015.
    What a whole load of old nonsense.

    1. You cannot conclude any general trend from two datapoints. ONS's observation that the rate of growth in February 2013 over January 2013 takes the growth index level back to its position in September 2012 is a justified observation in context. Concluding that this represents stagnation is not.

    2. How do you conclude that the mortgage support measures are "desperate pump-priming for a house price boom" ? What evidence do you have that the new schemes will cause a boom? More to the point where is your worked argument that it will? You would do well to look at recent figures from the Netherlands where house prices have fallen by 8.9% over the past year and ask yourself whether the same deflation could happen here and if not, why not.

    3. Why is it "obvious that George has given up on rebalancing"? Is this why the OBR has moved in its forecast completion dates for meeting both primary fiscal mandate targets in their latest EFO? Is this why Standard & Poor's recently reaffirmed the UK's AAA rating and stated: “We believe that the government will implement its fiscal mandate and that it has the ability and willingness to respond rapidly to economic challenges”?

    4. If George really is going for "debt-fuelled" growth can you explain why the ONS in its February Public Finances Bulletin stated that the Public Sector Net Borrowing had been reduced this fiscal year by 35.8% from £104.2bn to £66.9bn?

    Mr Detritus, you must spend more time studying published data and less time listening to pundits such as tim.
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    carlcarl Posts: 750
    25%? Lol.

    After we were told by so many Rightwing sages that the Tories had "won the debate on welfare" too. Missing the obvious: that to many people they've just reinforced the Nasty Party image with their behaviour.

    What price UKIP getting a higher score than the Tories in at least one poll before the election?
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    You hack me. I'll hack you...

    Israeli hackers and Anonymous have exchanged cyber-attacks. OpIsrael.com was hacked by Israeli hackers after the Hacktivist group Anonymous temporarily brought down the website of the Prime Minister's Office, and that of the Likud party.

    Israeli hackers have broken into the website of Anonymous, which was being used to coordinate cyber-attacks on Israeli sites. The hackers posted pro-Israel facts and videos on the website’s homepage. http://rt.com/news/israel-anonymous-website-hacked-577/
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