politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ukip are fielding candidates in three-quarters of the local seats up on May 2nd
For Ukip to have the nationwide organisation capable of putting up candidate in three quarters of the seats is a massive achievement. They’ve nearly beaten the LD total
The Conservative MP Conor Burns, who was close to Lady Thatcher, has just been interviewed on the World at One. He had some very good anecdotes.
• Lady Thatcher thought the Tories were not doing badly enough in the polls, Burns said. That's because she felt a government in mid-term should be taking unpopular decisions, he explained.
I remember last November showing her a poll in one of the Sunday papers and it showed that we were nine points behind. And she asked when the next election was and I said it wasn't for another two and a half years. And she said: "That's not far enough behind at this stage." She took a view that to do things that were right did entail unpopularity until people saw that what you were doing was working. And she always had confidence that what she was doing would work, and coincide with the electoral cycle ... which is why she won three general elections and was in power for 11 and a half years.
My crystal ball says that Tory discipline will be sorely tested in a month's time. After reliving yesterday all the events around Margaret Thatcher's departure from Downing St, there is every chance that UKIP's surge will be confirmed, and that it will cost the Tories dozens of seats (or at least some of them will claim so.)
The party is lacking confidence in itself, not at ease with itself in Government, and various factions are convinced they are the answer. So it will be a real test of the party's strength and discipline over the summer if they do badly.
Impressive for UKIP to have found almost as many candidates as the LDs. I'd guess a large proportion are former Tory members. As others have said, this does not bode well for Tory chances on May 3rd.
+----------------------------------------------------------+ ¦ Petition to upgrade Margaret Thatcher's funeral ¦ ¦ from "ceremonial" to "full state" status ¦ ¦ ¦ ¦ http://bit.ly/17o9IzU ¦ ¦ ¦ ¦ Don't allow Maggie's 2013 Closing Ceremony to be ¦ ¦ upstaged by Danny Boy's 2012 Opening Ceremony ¦ +----------------------------------------------------------+
"And she always had confidence that what she was doing would work, and coincide with the electoral cycle ... which is why she won three general elections and was in power for 11 and a half years."
If true, that anecdote could explain a lot about how she managed to wrongly convince herself that she still had the slightest chance in an election in 1991 or 1992.
Senior managers in the NHS – who have had the fewest real-terms cuts in spending – are most positive about government plans for their sector (62%), despite also saying that dealing with reform is a major challenge.
The UKIP figures should turn a terrible night for the Tories into truly terrible night for the Tories.
I suppose no one knows just how many of these candidates are paper candidates?
Edit: Thanks to Mr Senior for these figures
It seems to have been very bottom-up - there was a note on the UKIP website which asked people to let them know if they were standing so that they could get an overview. I shouldn't think the central party has much idea of who is a paper candidate and who is really keen. Possibly some paper candidates will have a nasty surprise if they win and find themselves grappling with the details of road gritting and waste disposal.
But then the general public has only the vaguest idea of who its councillors are anyway, so the perceived distinction between hard-working Fred who has toiled for the community for 30 years and new-boy George who just popped in his nomination papers for a laugh is not as large as we might wish - especially at county level. I suspect that even some of us here would struggle to name their county councillor(s).
@JamesKelly: That's one of the great "What Ifs" of 1990's politics. Presumably she believed that once people saw the poll tax working they would come round.
I think she was wrong and, anyway, by then hubris was setting in. 10 years is the maximum a leader can sensibly be in power for. Apparently Denis T also thought this but was unable to persuade her to step down voluntarily.
Looking at East Midlands Euro candidates...could you tell me who is Khalid Hadidi?
There's a Khalid Hadadi who is the General-Secretary of the Lebanese Communist Part. There's also a Khalid Hadadi who is European Affairs Manager at Channel 4.
I guess we can rule out the former, could this KH be the latter?
The UKIP figures should turn a terrible night for the Tories into truly terrible night for the Tories.
But then the general public has only the vaguest idea of who its councillors are anyway, so the perceived distinction between hard-working Fred who has toiled for the community for 30 years and new-boy George who just popped in his nomination papers for a laugh is not as large as we might wish - especially at county level. I suspect that even some of us here would struggle to name their county councillor(s).
Name a county councillor - blimey - that is one for the anoraks. I will be impresssed if anyone can name one honestly who is not connected to local party / married to one etc.
It is unclear as to how many UKIP candidates have been drafted in to make up the numbers by standing in a ward at the other end of the county from where they live . Nor is it clear how much if any vetting of candidates has gone on . One strange example is Hynburn in Lancs where the UKIP candidate in Accrington North lives in Padiham and yet Padiham itself has no UKIP candidate .
It's not impossible that UKIP candidates (I've no idea how they are selected) will show a big upturn in quality.
If you think about a typical would-be Tory candidate, they will be weighing careers and be concerned that life and salary as a (Tory) MP will represent an income drop from one in, say, the Professions. Plus these days with AWS and the like and the need for diversity etc that the chances of being selected are small. Much better (they may think) to go for a broadly similar agenda with a smaller party where the chances of selection will be far higher.
Whether these will remain with UKIP once/if they are not selected will be interesting. They will no longer be political virgins and, knowing the ropes, return to the Cons.
But it might nevertheless mean an uptick in UKIP candidate quality (in particular for the GE rather than locals).
What that means for the price of eggs goodness only knows.
In a time of universal grief, it is with the utmost temerity that I refer you all to the latest good news on the economy.
The Visa Expenditure Index, which publishes in advance of the ONS Retail Sales statistics bulletin and is widely regarded as a strong and reliable early indicator of the ONS figures, has published its report for March.
Headline findings:
• Third successive monthly rise in consumer spending: growth of +1.3% registered in March (February: +0.9%).
• Year-on-year spending increased in March: growth of +1.2% (February: +0.1%). Best growth in this measure since October 2010.
• Underlying spending improved in March: 3m/3m growth rate at +1.3% (February: -1.1%).
• Expenditure trends across all broad sectors remained varied; solid gain in spending online.
• First increase in face-to-face spending since September 2012.
And all this in spite of the snow! All the time George and Nick have been spending on the ski slopes practising their slalom techniques is now paying dividends to us all.
what was the excuse? They said "administrative error"
No idea and not sure I wanr to! Could cover a multitude of sins ranging from submission after the deadline or errors in those signing the nomination papers.
Clearly things moving on the ground for UKIP. I noticed the other day that many more were standing in the local wards around my neck of the woods. Looks like same picture across England.
In a time of universal grief, it is with the utmost temerity that I refer you all to the latest good news on the economy.
The Visa Expenditure Index, which publishes in advance of the ONS Retail Sales statistics bulletin and is widely regarded as a strong and reliable early indicator of the ONS figures, has published its report for March.
Headline findings:
• Third successive monthly rise in consumer spending: growth of +1.3% registered in March (February: +0.9%).
• Year-on-year spending increased in March: growth of +1.2% (February: +0.1%). Best growth in this measure since October 2010.
• Underlying spending improved in March: 3m/3m growth rate at +1.3% (February: -1.1%).
• Expenditure trends across all broad sectors remained varied; solid gain in spending online.
• First increase in face-to-face spending since September 2012.
And all this in spite of the snow! All the time George and Nick have been spending on the ski slopes practising their slalom techniques is now paying dividends to us all.
Well done Mr Pole, you've helped explain the deteriorating BoP. Now tell me why debt fuelled consumption is a good thing.
@MikeSmithson: For Ukip to have the nationwide organisation capable of putting up candidate in three quarters of the seats is a massive achievement. They’ve nearly beaten the LD total
I can only hope that what you say is a fact regarding Ukip organisation, Mike. Although I support Ukip and will advance their cause as much as I'm able, I do know that in the past, organisation has been a weakness in Ukip activity.
In a time of universal grief, it is with the utmost temerity that I refer you all to the latest good news on the economy.
The Visa Expenditure Index, which publishes in advance of the ONS Retail Sales statistics bulletin and is widely regarded as a strong and reliable early indicator of the ONS figures, has published its report for March.
Headline findings:
• Third successive monthly rise in consumer spending: growth of +1.3% registered in March (February: +0.9%).
• Year-on-year spending increased in March: growth of +1.2% (February: +0.1%). Best growth in this measure since October 2010.
• Underlying spending improved in March: 3m/3m growth rate at +1.3% (February: -1.1%).
• Expenditure trends across all broad sectors remained varied; solid gain in spending online.
• First increase in face-to-face spending since September 2012.
And all this in spite of the snow! All the time George and Nick have been spending on the ski slopes practising their slalom techniques is now paying dividends to us all.
Well done Mr Pole, you've helped explain the deteriorating BoP. Now tell me why debt fuelled consumption is a good thing.
Keynsian economics, innit. When the good times return, people will pay off their debts with their new high-paying jobs. Just like Gordon did at the national level...
In a time of universal grief, it is with the utmost temerity that I refer you all to the latest good news on the economy.
The Visa Expenditure Index, which publishes in advance of the ONS Retail Sales statistics bulletin and is widely regarded as a strong and reliable early indicator of the ONS figures, has published its report for March.
Headline findings:
• Third successive monthly rise in consumer spending: growth of +1.3% registered in March (February: +0.9%).
• Year-on-year spending increased in March: growth of +1.2% (February: +0.1%). Best growth in this measure since October 2010.
• Underlying spending improved in March: 3m/3m growth rate at +1.3% (February: -1.1%).
• Expenditure trends across all broad sectors remained varied; solid gain in spending online.
• First increase in face-to-face spending since September 2012.
And all this in spite of the snow! All the time George and Nick have been spending on the ski slopes practising their slalom techniques is now paying dividends to us all.
Well done Mr Pole, you've helped explain the deteriorating BoP. Now tell me why debt fuelled consumption is a good thing.
Keynsian, innit. When the good times return, people will pay off their debts with their new high-paying jobs. Just like Gordon did at the national level...
Ah yes the ever popular "if we borrow more we can pay off our debts".
In a time of universal grief, it is with the utmost temerity that I refer you all to the latest good news on the economy.
The Visa Expenditure Index, which publishes in advance of the ONS Retail Sales statistics bulletin and is widely regarded as a strong and reliable early indicator of the ONS figures, has published its report for March.
Headline findings:
• Third successive monthly rise in consumer spending: growth of +1.3% registered in March (February: +0.9%).
• Year-on-year spending increased in March: growth of +1.2% (February: +0.1%). Best growth in this measure since October 2010.
• Underlying spending improved in March: 3m/3m growth rate at +1.3% (February: -1.1%).
• Expenditure trends across all broad sectors remained varied; solid gain in spending online.
• First increase in face-to-face spending since September 2012.
And all this in spite of the snow! All the time George and Nick have been spending on the ski slopes practising their slalom techniques is now paying dividends to us all.
Well done Mr Pole, you've helped explain the deteriorating BoP. Now tell me why debt fuelled consumption is a good thing.
Keynsian, innit. When the good times return, people will pay off their debts with their new high-paying jobs. Just like Gordon did at the national level...
Ah yes the ever popular "if we borrow more we can pay off our debts".
Indeed. A plan with no drawbacks if ever I've heard one. Given how low interest rates are you'd be stupid not to end up in hock all the way to your eyebrows.
In a time of universal grief, it is with the utmost temerity that I refer you all to the latest good news on the economy.
The Visa Expenditure Index, which publishes in advance of the ONS Retail Sales statistics bulletin and is widely regarded as a strong and reliable early indicator of the ONS figures, has published its report for March.
Headline findings:
• Third successive monthly rise in consumer spending: growth of +1.3% registered in March (February: +0.9%).
• Year-on-year spending increased in March: growth of +1.2% (February: +0.1%). Best growth in this measure since October 2010.
• Underlying spending improved in March: 3m/3m growth rate at +1.3% (February: -1.1%).
• Expenditure trends across all broad sectors remained varied; solid gain in spending online.
• First increase in face-to-face spending since September 2012.
And all this in spite of the snow! All the time George and Nick have been spending on the ski slopes practising their slalom techniques is now paying dividends to us all.
u Well done Mr Pole, you've helped explain the deteriorating BoP. Now tell me why debt fuelled consumption is a good thing.
Please, Mr. Brooke, you are intruding upon my grief. An ameliorative sop is most welcome but a spiked barb only adds insult to injury.
We need to wait some days before knowing the answer to your conundrum, but consumer spending may well be rising due to a fall in the growth of the household savings ratio or due to the increase in overall employment in the economy.
You should also take note of the underlying churn in the figures. Expenditure on Services and Miscellaneous Goods increased by 19.9% annually, compared to falls in Household Goods of -6.6% and Clothing & Footwear -2.6%.
All this rather suggests the rise is retail spending reflects increased confidence in the upturn of the economy, evidenced in increased demand for domestic services rather than a splurge on imported goods.
As spending in Restaurants & Hotels increased by 7.2%, perhaps we can conclude that the country may be recovering as a result of its occupants getting drunk. Funny that as I see no immediate reason for such celebration.
It's also reasonable to enquire why the Lib Dems are leaving so many seats unfought. The County Councils are (or ought) in many cases to be Conservative/Lib Dem contests.
It's indefensible that some Conservative councillors are being returned with no opposition at all.
Last time UKIP won 7 seats. I think they could manage 30-40 this time.
In a time of universal grief, it is with the utmost temerity that I refer you all to the latest good news on the economy.
The Visa Expenditure Index, which publishes in advance of the ONS Retail Sales statistics bulletin and is widely regarded as a strong and reliable early indicator of the ONS figures, has published its report for March.
Headline findings:
• Third successive monthly rise in consumer spending: growth of +1.3% registered in March (February: +0.9%).
• Year-on-year spending increased in March: growth of +1.2% (February: +0.1%). Best growth in this measure since October 2010.
• Underlying spending improved in March: 3m/3m growth rate at +1.3% (February: -1.1%).
• Expenditure trends across all broad sectors remained varied; solid gain in spending online.
• First increase in face-to-face spending since September 2012.
And all this in spite of the snow! All the time George and Nick have been spending on the ski slopes practising their slalom techniques is now paying dividends to us all.
u Well done Mr Pole, you've helped explain the deteriorating BoP. Now tell me why debt fuelled consumption is a good thing.
Please, Mr. Brooke, you are intruding upon my grief. An ameliorative sop is most welcome but a spiked barb only adds insult to injury.
We need to wait some days before knowing the answer to your conundrum, but consumer spending may well be rising due to a fall in the growth of the household savings ratio or due to the increase in overall employment in the economy.
You should also take note of the underlying churn in the figures. Expenditure on Services and Miscellaneous Goods increased by 19.9% annually, compared to falls in Household Goods of -6.6% and Clothing & Footwear -2.6%.
All this rather suggests the rise is retail spending reflects increased confidence in the upturn of the economy, rather than an import boom.
As spending in Restaurants & Hotels increased by 7.2%, perhaps we can conclude that the country may be recovering as a result of its occupants getting drunk. Funny that as I see no immediate reason for such celebration.
In a time of universal grief, it is with the utmost temerity that I refer you all to the latest good news on the economy.
The Visa Expenditure Index, which publishes in advance of the ONS Retail Sales statistics bulletin and is widely regarded as a strong and reliable early indicator of the ONS figures, has published its report for March.
Headline findings:
• Third successive monthly rise in consumer spending: growth of +1.3% registered in March (February: +0.9%).
• Year-on-year spending increased in March: growth of +1.2% (February: +0.1%). Best growth in this measure since October 2010.
• Underlying spending improved in March: 3m/3m growth rate at +1.3% (February: -1.1%).
• Expenditure trends across all broad sectors remained varied; solid gain in spending online.
• First increase in face-to-face spending since September 2012.
And all this in spite of the snow! All the time George and Nick have been spending on the ski slopes practising their slalom techniques is now paying dividends to us all.
u Well done Mr Pole, you've helped explain the deteriorating BoP. Now tell me why debt fuelled consumption is a good thing.
Please, Mr. Brooke, you are intruding upon my grief. An ameliorative sop is most welcome but a spiked barb only adds insult to injury.
We need to wait some days before knowing the answer to your conundrum, but consumer spending may well be rising due to a fall in the growth of the household savings ratio or due to the increase in overall employment in the economy.
You should also take note of the underlying churn in the figures. Expenditure on Services and Miscellaneous Goods increased by 19.9% annually, compared to falls in Household Goods of -6.6% and Clothing & Footwear -2.6%.
All this rather suggests the rise is retail spending reflects increased confidence in the upturn of the economy, rather than an import boom.
As spending in Restaurants & Hotels increased by 7.2%, perhaps we can conclude that the country may be recovering as a result of its occupants getting drunk. Funny that as I see no immediate reason for such celebration.
I'll put it down to grief has temporarily destroyed your ability to use reason. But when you recover the BoP has been deteriorating for about 2 years now and keeps getting worse so we are sucking in imports.
As for consumption being good news, it isn't . We've consumed too much in the last 30 years, we need to produce more if we want good news.
In a time of universal grief, it is with the utmost temerity that I refer you all to the latest good news on the economy.
The Visa Expenditure Index, which publishes in advance of the ONS Retail Sales statistics bulletin and is widely regarded as a strong and reliable early indicator of the ONS figures, has published its report for March.
Headline findings:
• Third successive monthly rise in consumer spending: growth of +1.3% registered in March (February: +0.9%).
• Year-on-year spending increased in March: growth of +1.2% (February: +0.1%). Best growth in this measure since October 2010.
• Underlying spending improved in March: 3m/3m growth rate at +1.3% (February: -1.1%).
• Expenditure trends across all broad sectors remained varied; solid gain in spending online.
• First increase in face-to-face spending since September 2012.
And all this in spite of the snow! All the time George and Nick have been spending on the ski slopes practising their slalom techniques is now paying dividends to us all.
Well done Mr Pole, you've helped explain the deteriorating BoP. Now tell me why debt fuelled consumption is a good thing.
Keynsian, innit. When the good times return, people will pay off their debts with their new high-paying jobs. Just like Gordon did at the national level...
Ah yes the ever popular "if we borrow more we can pay off our debts".
Indeed. A plan with no drawbacks if ever I've heard one. Given how low interest rates are you'd be stupid not to end up in hock all the way to your eyebrows.
Good point, historically interest rates have never gone up.
In a time of universal grief, it is with the utmost temerity that I refer you all to the latest good news on the economy.
The Visa Expenditure Index, which publishes in advance of the ONS Retail Sales statistics bulletin and is widely regarded as a strong and reliable early indicator of the ONS figures, has published its report for March.
Headline findings:
• Third successive monthly rise in consumer spending: growth of +1.3% registered in March (February: +0.9%).
• Year-on-year spending increased in March: growth of +1.2% (February: +0.1%). Best growth in this measure since October 2010.
• Underlying spending improved in March: 3m/3m growth rate at +1.3% (February: -1.1%).
• Expenditure trends across all broad sectors remained varied; solid gain in spending online.
• First increase in face-to-face spending since September 2012.
And all this in spite of the snow! All the time George and Nick have been spending on the ski slopes practising their slalom techniques is now paying dividends to us all.
Well done Mr Pole, you've helped explain the deteriorating BoP. Now tell me why debt fuelled consumption is a good thing.
Keynsian economics, innit. When the good times return, people will pay off their debts with their new high-paying jobs. Just like Gordon did at the national level...
Keynesian economics has this fairly important bit where you run a surplus through the good times.
In a time of universal grief, it is with the utmost temerity that I refer you all to the latest good news on the economy.
The Visa Expenditure Index, which publishes in advance of the ONS Retail Sales statistics bulletin and is widely regarded as a strong and reliable early indicator of the ONS figures, has published its report for March.
Headline findings:
• Third successive monthly rise in consumer spending: growth of +1.3% registered in March (February: +0.9%).
• Year-on-year spending increased in March: growth of +1.2% (February: +0.1%). Best growth in this measure since October 2010.
• Underlying spending improved in March: 3m/3m growth rate at +1.3% (February: -1.1%).
• Expenditure trends across all broad sectors remained varied; solid gain in spending online.
• First increase in face-to-face spending since September 2012.
And all this in spite of the snow! All the time George and Nick have been spending on the ski slopes practising their slalom techniques is now paying dividends to us all.
Well done Mr Pole, you've helped explain the deteriorating BoP. Now tell me why debt fuelled consumption is a good thing.
Keynsian economics, innit. When the good times return, people will pay off their debts with their new high-paying jobs. Just like Gordon did at the national level...
Keynesian economics has this fairly important bit where you run a surplus through the good times.
In a time of universal grief, it is with the utmost temerity that I refer you all to the latest good news on the economy.
The Visa Expenditure Index, which publishes in advance of the ONS Retail Sales statistics bulletin and is widely regarded as a strong and reliable early indicator of the ONS figures, has published its report for March.
Headline findings:
• Third successive monthly rise in consumer spending: growth of +1.3% registered in March (February: +0.9%).
• Year-on-year spending increased in March: growth of +1.2% (February: +0.1%). Best growth in this measure since October 2010.
• Underlying spending improved in March: 3m/3m growth rate at +1.3% (February: -1.1%).
• Expenditure trends across all broad sectors remained varied; solid gain in spending online.
• First increase in face-to-face spending since September 2012.
And all this in spite of the snow! All the time George and Nick have been spending on the ski slopes practising their slalom techniques is now paying dividends to us all.
Well done Mr Pole, you've helped explain the deteriorating BoP. Now tell me why debt fuelled consumption is a good thing.
Keynsian economics, innit. When the good times return, people will pay off their debts with their new high-paying jobs. Just like Gordon did at the national level...
Keynesian economics has this fairly important bit where you run a surplus through the good times.
Indeed ! Are you still heading down to the smoke Mr Corporeal in just over a week's time ? I've booked a bed at YHA St Pauls as I believe in trying to keep a personal surplus on my books !
It's also reasonable to enquire why the Lib Dems are leaving so many seats unfought. The County Councils are (or ought) in many cases to be Conservative/Lib Dem contests.
It's indefensible that some Conservative councillors are being returned with no opposition at all.
Not rocket science Sean. Parties (except UKIP) are losing membership and thus activists, and the Lib Dems in particular are in tough times. Plenty of activists have been turned away by coalition, others have either lost seats or seen colleagues lose seats and decided not to fight when it's unlikely to win. So hardly a shock that candidate numbers are down. While the UKIP figure is notably high, LD candidates at 78% of Tories is not bad at all.
what was the excuse? They said "administrative error"
No idea and not sure I wanr to! Could cover a multitude of sins ranging from submission after the deadline or errors in those signing the nomination papers.
UKIP have failed to field a candidate in Penkridge, Staffordshire. It ought to be a strong area for them so it must have been some sort of mess-up with the nomination papers.
what was the excuse? They said "administrative error"
No idea and not sure I wanr to! Could cover a multitude of sins ranging from submission after the deadline or errors in those signing the nomination papers.
I must admit in my Liberal Party agent days I discovered at about 1.30pm that a nomination paper had been incorrectly completed and had to dash round to get the correct version completed and in by 2.55pm!
I must admit in my Liberal Party agent days I discovered at about 1.30pm that a nomination paper had been incorrectly completed and had to dash round to get the get a correct version completed and in by 2.55pm!
I was once involved in the mother of all cock-ups in nominations at a local election (blamelessly involved, I hasten to add!). We let everyone think we werent standing in a target(ish) ward out of tactical considerations.
I was once involved in the mother of all cock-ups in nominations at a local election (blamelessly involved, I hasten to add!). We let everyone think we werent standing in a target(ish) ward out of tactical considerations.
It was more to save our own embarrassment rather than to gain advantage. Our bar charts were scrupulously accurate, I measured them to the nearest mm myself!
In a time of universal grief, it is with the utmost temerity that I refer you all to the latest good news on the economy.
The Visa Expenditure Index, which publishes in advance of the ONS Retail Sales statistics bulletin and is widely regarded as a strong and reliable early indicator of the ONS figures, has published its report for March.
Headline findings:
• Third successive monthly rise in consumer spending: growth of +1.3% registered in March (February: +0.9%).
• Year-on-year spending increased in March: growth of +1.2% (February: +0.1%). Best growth in this measure since October 2010.
• Underlying spending improved in March: 3m/3m growth rate at +1.3% (February: -1.1%).
• Expenditure trends across all broad sectors remained varied; solid gain in spending online.
• First increase in face-to-face spending since September 2012.
And all this in spite of the snow! All the time George and Nick have been spending on the ski slopes practising their slalom techniques is now paying dividends to us all.
u Well done Mr Pole, you've helped explain the deteriorating BoP. Now tell me why debt fuelled consumption is a good thing.
Please, Mr. Brooke, you are intruding upon my grief. An ameliorative sop is most welcome but a spiked barb only adds insult to injury.
We need to wait some days before knowing the answer to your conundrum, but consumer spending may well be rising due to a fall in the growth of the household savings ratio or due to the increase in overall employment in the economy.
You should also take note of the underlying churn in the figures. Expenditure on Services and Miscellaneous Goods increased by 19.9% annually, compared to falls in Household Goods of -6.6% and Clothing & Footwear -2.6%.
All this rather suggests the rise is retail spending reflects increased confidence in the upturn of the economy, rather than an import boom.
As spending in Restaurants & Hotels increased by 7.2%, perhaps we can conclude that the country may be recovering as a result of its occupants getting drunk. Funny that as I see no immediate reason for such celebration.
In a time of universal grief, it is with the utmost temerity that I refer you all to the latest good news on the economy.
The Visa Expenditure Index, which publishes in advance of the ONS Retail Sales statistics bulletin and is widely regarded as a strong and reliable early indicator of the ONS figures, has published its report for March.
Headline findings:
• Third successive monthly rise in consumer spending: growth of +1.3% registered in March (February: +0.9%).
• Year-on-year spending increased in March: growth of +1.2% (February: +0.1%). Best growth in this measure since October 2010.
• Underlying spending improved in March: 3m/3m growth rate at +1.3% (February: -1.1%).
• Expenditure trends across all broad sectors remained varied; solid gain in spending online.
• First increase in face-to-face spending since September 2012.
And all this in spite of the snow! All the time George and Nick have been spending on the ski slopes practising their slalom techniques is now paying dividends to us all.
u Well done Mr Pole, you've helped explain the deteriorating BoP. Now tell me why debt fuelled consumption is a good thing.
Please, Mr. Brooke, you are intruding upon my grief. An ameliorative sop is most welcome but a spiked barb only adds insult to injury.
We need to wait some days before knowing the answer to your conundrum, but consumer spending may well be rising due to a fall in the growth of the household savings ratio or due to the increase in overall employment in the economy.
You should also take note of the underlying churn in the figures. Expenditure on Services and Miscellaneous Goods increased by 19.9% annually, compared to falls in Household Goods of -6.6% and Clothing & Footwear -2.6%.
All this rather suggests the rise is retail spending reflects increased confidence in the upturn of the economy, rather than an import boom.
As spending in Restaurants & Hotels increased by 7.2%, perhaps we can conclude that the country may be recovering as a result of its occupants getting drunk. Funny that as I see no immediate reason for such celebration.
I'll put it down to grief has temporarily destroyed your ability to use reason. But when you recover the BoP has been deteriorating for about 2 years now and keeps getting worse so we are sucking in imports.
As for consumption being good news, it isn't . We've consumed too much in the last 30 years, we need to produce more if we want good news.
Mr. Broke, you would have made a poor minister in a Thatcher government. She showed scant respect to those Ministers who hadn't emptied their red boxes before Cabinet and who espoused opinions unsupported by fact.
The Trade figures are nowhere near as bad as being portrayed in the media and when analysed closely underpin the recent signs of a recovery in manufacturing and manufactured goods exports.
Let's take the big figures first. Oil exports are down £265 month on previous month and £654 three months rolling on previous year. This reflects the known, mainly late 2012, interruptions to North Sea production due to maintenance. Large increases in investment and development in the North Sea are underway but are not expected to reverse declining output trends until late 2013 at the earliest.
On consumer goods (other than cars), exports are down -£122m (m/pm) but imports down by more on the same meaure -£155m, so improving the trade balance.
Car sales are the obvious good news. Exports up £947m on the quarterly figures compared with imports up £435. This balance is slightly reversed in the monthly figures though.
But back to the real indicators of manufacturing revival. The increases in imports are coming in Intermediate Goods (Exp. £61, Imp. £342m month), Chemicals (Exp. -£191m, Imp. +£271) and Semi-manufactured goods other than chemicals (Exp. -40; Imp.+ £112).
What this seems to indicate is that, once oil trade is excluded, the vast bulk of the increase in imports is going to factory gates rather than shop shelves. A good not a bad sign for the economy.
It was more to save our own embarrassment rather than to gain advantage. Our bar charts were scrupulously accurate, I measured them to the nearest mm myself!
But did you make it clear that the scale was logarithmic?
Looking at East Midlands Euro candidates...could you tell me who is Khalid Hadidi?
There's a Khalid Hadadi who is the General-Secretary of the Lebanese Communist Part. There's also a Khalid Hadadi who is European Affairs Manager at Channel 4.
I guess we can rule out the former, could this KH be the latter?
Andrea, if you don't know, nobody knows! I certainly don't. But the General Secretary of the Lebanese Communist Party would be a fun choice.
In a time of universal grief, it is with the utmost temerity that I refer you all to the latest good news on the economy.
The Visa Expenditure Index, which publishes in advance of the ONS Retail Sales statistics bulletin and is widely regarded as a strong and reliable early indicator of the ONS figures, has published its report for March.
Headline findings:
• Third successive monthly rise in consumer spending: growth of +1.3% registered in March (February: +0.9%).
• Year-on-year spending increased in March: growth of +1.2% (February: +0.1%). Best growth in this measure since October 2010.
• Underlying spending improved in March: 3m/3m growth rate at +1.3% (February: -1.1%).
• Expenditure trends across all broad sectors remained varied; solid gain in spending online.
• First increase in face-to-face spending since September 2012.
And all this in spite of the snow! All the time George and Nick have been spending on the ski slopes practising their slalom techniques is now paying dividends to us all.
u Well done Mr Pole, you've helped explain the deteriorating BoP. Now tell me why debt fuelled consumption is a good thing.
Please, Mr. Brooke, you are intruding upon my grief. An ameliorative sop is most welcome but a spiked barb only adds insult to injury.
We need to wait some days before knowing the answer to your conundrum, but consumer spending may well be rising due to a fall in the growth of the household savings ratio or due to the increase in overall employment in the economy.
You should also take note of the underlying churn in the figures. Expenditure on Services and Miscellaneous Goods increased by 19.9% annually, compared to falls in Household Goods of -6.6% and Clothing & Footwear -2.6%.
All this rather suggests the rise is retail spending reflects increased confidence in the upturn of the economy, rather than an import boom.
As spending in Restaurants & Hotels increased by 7.2%, perhaps we can conclude that the country may be recovering as a result of its occupants getting drunk. Funny that as I see no immediate reason for such celebration.
In a time of universal grief, it is with the utmost temerity that I refer you all to the latest good news on the economy.
The Visa Expenditure Index, which publishes in advance of the ONS Retail Sales statistics bulletin and is widely regarded as a strong and reliable early indicator of the ONS figures, has published its report for March.
Headline findings:
• Third successive monthly rise in consumer spending: growth of +1.3% registered in March (February: +0.9%).
• Year-on-year spending increased in March: growth of +1.2% (February: +0.1%). Best growth in this measure since October 2010.
• Underlying spending improved in March: 3m/3m growth rate at +1.3% (February: -1.1%).
• Expenditure trends across all broad sectors remained varied; solid gain in spending online.
• First increase in face-to-face spending since September 2012.
And all this in spite of the snow! All the time George and Nick have been spending on the ski slopes practising their slalom techniques is now paying dividends to us all.
u Well done Mr Pole, you've helped explain the deteriorating BoP. Now tell me why debt fuelled consumption is a good thing.
Please, Mr. Brooke, you are intruding upon my grief. An ameliorative sop is most welcome but a spiked barb only adds insult to injury.
We need to wait some days before knowing the answer to your conundrum, but consumer spending may well be rising due to a fall in the growth of the household savings ratio or due to the increase in overall employment in the economy.
You should also take note of the underlying churn in the figures. Expenditure on Services and Miscellaneous Goods increased by 19.9% annually, compared to falls in Household Goods of -6.6% and Clothing & Footwear -2.6%.
All this rather suggests the rise is retail spending reflects increased confidence in the upturn of the economy, rather than an import boom.
As spending in Restaurants & Hotels increased by 7.2%, perhaps we can conclude that the country may be recovering as a result of its occupants getting drunk. Funny that as I see no immediate reason for such celebration.
I'll put it down to grief has temporarily destroyed your ability to use reason. But when you recover the BoP has been deteriorating for about 2 years now and keeps getting worse so we are sucking in imports.
As for consumption being good news, it isn't . We've consumed too much in the last 30 years, we need to produce more if we want good news.
Mr. Broke, you would have made a poor minister in a Thatcher government. She showed scant respect to those Ministers who hadn't emptied their red boxes before Cabinet and who espoused opinions unsupported by fact.
The Trade figures are nowhere near as bad as being portrayed in the media and when analysed closely underpin the recent signs of a recovery in manufacturing and manufactured goods exports.
Let's take the big figures first. Oil exports are down £265 month on previous month and £654 three months rolling on previous year. This reflects the known, mainly late 2012, interruptions to North Sea production due to maintenance. Large increases in investment and development in the North Sea are underway but are not expected to reverse declining output trends until late 2013 at the earliest.
On consumer goods (other than cars), exports are down -£122m (m/pm) but imports down by more on the same meaure -£155m, so improving the trade balance.
Car sales are the obvious good news. Exports up £947m on the quarterly figures compared with imports up £435. This trend is slightly reversed in monthly figures though.
But back to the real indicators of manufacturing revival. The increases in imports are coming in Intermediate Goods (Exp. £61, Imp. £342m month), Chemicals (Exp. -£191m, Imp. +£271) and Semi-manufactured goods other than chemicals (Exp. -40; Imp.+ £112).
What this seems to indicate is that, once oil trade is excluded, the vast bulk of the increase in imports is going to factory gates rather than shop shelves. A good not a bad sign for the economy.
I hope you're enjoying the trees Mr Pole, now stand back and look at the wood. This country has had a BoP problem for 3 decades. All of it has been fuelled by debt. So at some point we have to start earning our living again and importing crap from LCCs isn't the way to do it. Equally at some point the oil will run out and our BoP problem will just get substantially bigger. So let's not play the game of trying to say decline isn't that bad. We need a government which will stop the ship slowly sinking and which is prepared to do the things needed to get us paying our way again. Unfortunately it's just not this one.
Given the low turnouts normal in local elections and given that the UKIP vote is likely to be highly motivated, we could get strange results all over the place.
Mr. Brooke, your irrational prejudice towards the current government is blinding you. The thirty year BoP problem you correctly identify will not disappear in a single month's statistics. It will be especially difficult to reverse in a period of enforced fiscal consolidation. But the signs of proper correction are beginning to come through in the figures.
For example, we are not seeing increased trade imbalances due to a boom in imported consumer goods. We are seeing increased investment and output in our main exporting productive sectors. We are seeing manufacturing slowly recover at a time when production is plummeting in all our main European competitor countries.
Take today's ONS news on Industrial production:
UK industrial production rose by 1.0 per cent month-on-month in February, when compared with the previous month, but even so remained at the same level as in September 2012. Manufacturing output rose by 0.8 per cent on the month, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
The consensus estimate was for a gain in industrial production of 0.1% month-on-month (-2.9% year-on-year). Manufacturing output was expected to increase by 0.3% month-on-month.
An improvement was registered in all sectors, the first time this has happened since July 2012.
All sectors rose during the month in question – this last happened in July 2012. Despite the increase in production though the index is still only at the same level as in September 2012. In mining&quarrying output grew by 2.8% versus February whilst Energy supply did so by 1.3% and that of water&waste management did so by 0.8%.
The largest gains within manufacturing were those for machinery&equipment (3.3%), transport equipment (2.1%) and basic metals (1.8%).
In terms of quarterly rates of change industrial production grew by 0.3% and in manufacturing contracted by 0.2%.
You may wish for more dramatic and faster changes but this would be near impossible to deliver without causing massive corresponding distortions in the overall economy, e.g in debt levels and servicing costs.
George is a skilled doctor. The English patient is slowly recovering. We must be patient and keep faith.
Mr. Broke, your irrational prejudice towards the current government is blinding you. The thirty year BoP problem you correctly identify will not disappear in a single month's statistics. It will be especially difficult to reverse in a period of enforced fiscal consolidation. But the signs of proper correction are beginning to come through in the figures.
For example, we are not seeing increased trade imbalances due to a boom in imported consumer goods. We are seeing increased investment and output in our main exporting productive sectors. We are seeing manufacturing slowly recover at a time when production is plummeting in all our main European competitor countries.
Take today's ONS news on Industrial production:
UK industrial production rose by 1.0 per cent month-on-month in February, when compared with the previous month, but even so remained at the same level as in September 2012. Manufacturing output rose by 0.8 per cent on the month, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
The consensus estimate was for a gain in industrial production of 0.1% month-on-month (-2.9% year-on-year). Manufacturing output was expected to increase by 0.3% month-on-month.
An improvement was registered in all sectors, the first time this has happened since July 2012.
All sectors rose during the month in question – this last happened in July 2012. Despite the increase in production though the index is still only at the same level as in September 2012. In mining&quarrying output grew by 2.8% versus February whilst Energy supply did so by 1.3% and that of water&waste management did so by 0.8%.
The largest gains within manufacturing were those for machinery&equipment (3.3%), transport equipment (2.1%) and basic metals (1.8%).
In terms of quarterly rates of change industrial production grew by 0.3% and in manufacturing contracted by 0.2%.
You may wish for dramatic and faster changes but this would be near impossible to deliver without causing massive corresponding distortions in the overall economy, e.g in debt levels and servicing costs.
George is a skilled doctor. The English patient is slowly recovering
Mr Pole your irrational faith in Mr Osborne is blinding you. No sane person expects the entrenched UK problems to be reversed in a year or a single Parliament. Rather one expects that a government embark on a programme of reform and address the matter over two or maybe even three terms. However it requires HMG to make a start and as long as we have GO as CoE there is no chance of anything substantive taking place. It's a matter of vision and courage and he has neither.
I remember my dad putting the back seats down and my sister and I snoozing in the back in sleeping bags during a long journey. H&S hadn't even been invented back then!
The time-issue with Vanilla seems to be localised to particular people or devices, but as far as I could work out isn't actually based on the computer's own time (unless it takes time to kick in after a change, which I did not test). Nor could I find a preference to set it on Vanilla itself, which is what I was expecting.
I got the problem a moment ago which I resolved by purging the page.
I had an Austin 1300 in the 70s which was dogsh*t brown. BL called it 'Harvest Gold'. I later had a Ford Capri, dark brown metallic, which was called 'Roman Bronze'.
Speaking of the 70s, my wife and I emigrated from England during the winter of discontent. It was a nightmare. There was garbage everywhere, the truck drivers were on strike, so there was a fuel shortage and it meant that traveling round to say goodbye to friends and family meant renting cars, as it was the only way you could get petrol. Moving out of our house was a problem for the same reason, and getting our furniture to the docks for shipping was also a nightmare.
It was so bad that we didn't even want to visit again for over a decade. The UK in the 70s was a grim and dire place - something needed to be done.
I wasn't in the country during Thatcher's time, merely observing from afar. But love or hate her, she changed the terms of the debate.
@AveryLP – ‘spending in Restaurants & Hotels increased by 7.2%, - Funny that as I see no immediate reason for such celebration.’
Oops, sorry about that, although not responsible for the entire 7.2%, - just spent three days celebrating a family christening and get together on the south coast. – life goes on - as do such ‘celebrations’ I’m afraid.
However it requires HMG to make a start and as long as we have GO as CoE there is no chance of anything substantive taking place. It's a matter of vision and courage and he has neither.
Mr. Brooke.
I have little more to add.
May I be so bold as to suggest counselling may help?
After twenty-four hours of the effusive and vitriolic tributes to Margaret Thatcher, I'm left with a number of unconnected thoughts so here goes:
Inasmuch as can be said about anyone, Margaret Thatcher was a product of her time and her background. She was a suburban woman with suburban mores and values honed in the 40s and 50s and who came to champion a generation traumatised by the social upheavals of the 60s and 70s.
I would argue she led a countercultural revolution in which she and those like her sought to reshape the country around values of former times and policy was honed to that end. The problem was that while the economic and political battles could be fought and won, the societal and cultural war was already lost.
A consequence of that was that the essence of self-responsibility, a central tenet of the Thatcherite ethos, went largely unachieved. Indeed, while it may have been "Victorian values" that some in her Party were seeking, it was the French concept of enrichessez-vous as propounded by Guizot which came to rule the day.
To be more controversial, she enjoyed the luck that seems to find certain politicians but used good fortune to the maximum. Did she change Britain? To an extent, yes, but technological innovation played its part and I would contend that some of the structural changes might well have happened anyway. From the 80s we have the mobile phone, the personal computer and the video recorder, the descendants of which are essential to the lives of so many today.
She played a supporting role in the denouement of the Cold War though Mikhail Gorbachev's role was infinitely more important. I credit her with seeing the inherent flaws in European federalism and German re-unification and with understanding the problem of climate change and the need to safeguard the environment.
The demographic timebomb was known about in the 1980s and here again perhaps the onus on self-responsibility was an inherent failing in an economic culture predicated on consumption. Had the 1980s instigated a proper savings culture and given future pension provision the attention it needed, we would not be in the mess we are today (though both the Major and Blair administrations are also at fault).
For me, her record is mixed. The irony is that while some claim she continues to shape politics today, I'm less convinced. The more I listen to Cameron, Milliband and Clegg, the 1980s politician I hear is David Owen.
@AveryLP – ‘spending in Restaurants & Hotels increased by 7.2%, - Funny that as I see no immediate reason for such celebration.’
Oops, sorry about that, although not responsible for the entire 7.2%, - just spent three days celebrating a family christening and get together on the south coast. – life goes on - as do such ‘celebrations’ I’m afraid.
We need the warm festive weather to move North from the South Coast, SimonStClare.
Hmm What a piffling matter to resign over, a few misplaced tweets. The media storm would have blown over in a day or so, in fact was it even a storm. Storm in an eggcup more likely. I wouldn't have resigned if I was in her shoes, mind you I doubt my various comments here would attract a Daily Mail journo as much as detailing my private life on Twitter would per se.
"It was so bad that we didn't even want to visit again for over a decade. The UK in the 70s was a grim and dire place"
Yes, in many ways it was but in other ways it was much better than today. It was a freer, friendlier place, despite the problems with inflation prices for essentials were affordable for the average working bloke and HMG was not constantly trying to organise peoples' lives. I had a great time.
Hmm What a piffling matter to resign over, a few misplaced tweets. The media storm would have blown over in a day or so, in fact was it even a storm. Storm in an eggcup more likely. I wouldn't have resigned if I was in her shoes, mind you I doubt my various comments here would attract a Daily Mail journo as much as detailing my private life on Twitter would per se.
Another victim of the intolerance of the PC-brigade. Still she is lucky. She might have gone to jail. Or is she not out of the woods yet?
"It was so bad that we didn't even want to visit again for over a decade. The UK in the 70s was a grim and dire place"
Yes, in many ways it was but in other ways it was much better than today. It was a freer, friendlier place, despite the problems with inflation prices for essentials were affordable for the average working bloke and HMG was not constantly trying to organise peoples' lives. I had a great time.
Same here Hurst, was best time of my life. Housing and beer were cheap , pay rises every month. I got married later in 70's , got council house, brand new at low rent , you could afford to live on a reasonable wage in those days. Great days and certainly much better than the state the country is in now , unless you are well off.
Hmm What a piffling matter to resign over, a few misplaced tweets. The media storm would have blown over in a day or so, in fact was it even a storm. Storm in an eggcup more likely. I wouldn't have resigned if I was in her shoes, mind you I doubt my various comments here would attract a Daily Mail journo as much as detailing my private life on Twitter would per se.
Another victim of the intolerance of the PC-brigade. Still she is lucky. She might have gone to jail. Or is she not out of the woods yet?
Just had a look at her tweets again. The one regarding getting drunk on her job whilst being underage is probably sackable. Why would the police bother with any of it though. Is it a hate crime to suggest that people might not have that great a command of the English language ?
"Had the 1980s instigated a proper savings culture and given future pension provision the attention it needed, we would not be in the mess we are today (though both the Major and Blair administrations are also at fault)."
Legislation to promote occupational pension schemes pre-dated Thatcher and on the whole was very successful. The UK was probably the best prepared in Europe by the end of the 1980s. The rot set in when companies were allowed to take contribution holidays if their schemes were in surplus (as many were) and then Brown got his sticky mits on the levers and totally destroyed they whole thing - for the private sector.
"Had the 1980s instigated a proper savings culture and given future pension provision the attention it needed, we would not be in the mess we are today (though both the Major and Blair administrations are also at fault)."
Legislation to promote occupational pension schemes pre-dated Thatcher and on the whole was very successful. The UK was probably the best prepared in Europe by the end of the 1980s. The rot set in when companies were allowed to take contribution holidays if their schemes were in surplus (as many were) and then Brown got his sticky mits on the levers and totally destroyed they whole thing - for the private sector.
I've covered a bit of pensions accounting, contributions should probably be kept up whatever as the future projected values and income are somewhat variable.
Hmm What a piffling matter to resign over, a few misplaced tweets. The media storm would have blown over in a day or so, in fact was it even a storm. Storm in an eggcup more likely. I wouldn't have resigned if I was in her shoes, mind you I doubt my various comments here would attract a Daily Mail journo as much as detailing my private life on Twitter would per se.
Another victim of the intolerance of the PC-brigade. Still she is lucky. She might have gone to jail. Or is she not out of the woods yet?
Just had a look at her tweets again. The one regarding getting drunk on her job whilst being underage is probably sackable. Why would the police bother with any of it though. Is it a hate crime to suggest that people might not have that great a command of the English language ?
Comments
I suppose no one knows just how many of these candidates are paper candidates?
Edit: Thanks to Mr Senior for these figures
• Lady Thatcher thought the Tories were not doing badly enough in the polls, Burns said. That's because she felt a government in mid-term should be taking unpopular decisions, he explained.
I remember last November showing her a poll in one of the Sunday papers and it showed that we were nine points behind. And she asked when the next election was and I said it wasn't for another two and a half years. And she said: "That's not far enough behind at this stage." She took a view that to do things that were right did entail unpopularity until people saw that what you were doing was working. And she always had confidence that what she was doing would work, and coincide with the electoral cycle ... which is why she won three general elections and was in power for 11 and a half years.
The party is lacking confidence in itself, not at ease with itself in Government, and various factions are convinced they are the answer. So it will be a real test of the party's strength and discipline over the summer if they do badly.
LibDems would have won that a few years ago (it's in Guildford).
Especially if it leads to changes in attitudes to FPTP
If true, that anecdote could explain a lot about how she managed to wrongly convince herself that she still had the slightest chance in an election in 1991 or 1992.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2013/apr/09/public-sector-services-hold-up-despite-cuts?CMP=twt_fd
6 Tories unopposed in Wiltshire
1 Tory unopposed in Northumberland
A further 1 seat already guaranteed in Shropshire
6 Labour seats guaranteed in Durham
Lansley's march to victory begins.
But then the general public has only the vaguest idea of who its councillors are anyway, so the perceived distinction between hard-working Fred who has toiled for the community for 30 years and new-boy George who just popped in his nomination papers for a laugh is not as large as we might wish - especially at county level. I suspect that even some of us here would struggle to name their county councillor(s).
I think she was wrong and, anyway, by then hubris was setting in. 10 years is the maximum a leader can sensibly be in power for. Apparently Denis T also thought this but was unable to persuade her to step down voluntarily.
May I say how grateful we are for your decision to cut short your overseas travels and return to PB in its hour of need.
Looking at East Midlands Euro candidates...could you tell me who is Khalid Hadidi?
There's a Khalid Hadadi who is the General-Secretary of the Lebanese Communist Part.
There's also a Khalid Hadadi who is European Affairs Manager at Channel 4.
I guess we can rule out the former, could this KH be the latter?
One strange example is Hynburn in Lancs where the UKIP candidate in Accrington North lives in Padiham and yet Padiham itself has no UKIP candidate .
If you think about a typical would-be Tory candidate, they will be weighing careers and be concerned that life and salary as a (Tory) MP will represent an income drop from one in, say, the Professions. Plus these days with AWS and the like and the need for diversity etc that the chances of being selected are small. Much better (they may think) to go for a broadly similar agenda with a smaller party where the chances of selection will be far higher.
Whether these will remain with UKIP once/if they are not selected will be interesting. They will no longer be political virgins and, knowing the ropes, return to the Cons.
But it might nevertheless mean an uptick in UKIP candidate quality (in particular for the GE rather than locals).
What that means for the price of eggs goodness only knows.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-22077834
God, Allah or FSM?
The Visa Expenditure Index, which publishes in advance of the ONS Retail Sales statistics bulletin and is widely regarded as a strong and reliable early indicator of the ONS figures, has published its report for March.
Headline findings:
• Third successive monthly rise in consumer spending: growth of +1.3% registered in March (February: +0.9%).
• Year-on-year spending increased in March: growth of +1.2% (February: +0.1%). Best growth in this measure since October 2010.
• Underlying spending improved in March: 3m/3m growth rate at +1.3% (February: -1.1%).
• Expenditure trends across all broad sectors remained varied; solid gain in spending online.
• First increase in face-to-face spending since September 2012.
And all this in spite of the snow! All the time George and Nick have been spending on the ski slopes practising their slalom techniques is now paying dividends to us all.
what was the excuse? They said "administrative error"
No idea and not sure I wanr to! Could cover a multitude of sins ranging from submission after the deadline or errors in those signing the nomination papers.
For Ukip to have the nationwide organisation capable of putting up candidate in three quarters of the seats is a massive achievement. They’ve nearly beaten the LD total
I can only hope that what you say is a fact regarding Ukip organisation, Mike. Although I support Ukip and will advance their cause as much as I'm able, I do know that in the past, organisation has been a weakness in Ukip activity.
http://youtu.be/ufbWFqCEeZk
We need to wait some days before knowing the answer to your conundrum, but consumer spending may well be rising due to a fall in the growth of the household savings ratio or due to the increase in overall employment in the economy.
You should also take note of the underlying churn in the figures. Expenditure on Services and Miscellaneous Goods increased by 19.9% annually, compared to falls in Household Goods of -6.6% and Clothing & Footwear -2.6%.
All this rather suggests the rise is retail spending reflects increased confidence in the upturn of the economy, evidenced in increased demand for domestic services rather than a splurge on imported goods.
As spending in Restaurants & Hotels increased by 7.2%, perhaps we can conclude that the country may be recovering as a result of its occupants getting drunk. Funny that as I see no immediate reason for such celebration.
It's indefensible that some Conservative councillors are being returned with no opposition at all.
Last time UKIP won 7 seats. I think they could manage 30-40 this time.
As for consumption being good news, it isn't . We've consumed too much in the last 30 years, we need to produce more if we want good news.
http://www.guildford-dragon.com/2013/04/06/election-agents-mistake-means-no-conservative-candidate-for-shalford-in-county-elections/
And in my bit of Essex there are several BNP candidates.
I dont think I would have survived another day out there
Ps many thanks to all the PBers who advised me on what to do in Boston, I really enjoyed all the suggestions
Not all Surrey Tories have as effective a campaign team as our JohnO
Can't wait for the Euros when there can be a eurosceptic 1,2 on the ballot
The Trade figures are nowhere near as bad as being portrayed in the media and when analysed closely underpin the recent signs of a recovery in manufacturing and manufactured goods exports.
Let's take the big figures first. Oil exports are down £265 month on previous month and £654 three months rolling on previous year. This reflects the known, mainly late 2012, interruptions to North Sea production due to maintenance. Large increases in investment and development in the North Sea are underway but are not expected to reverse declining output trends until late 2013 at the earliest.
On consumer goods (other than cars), exports are down -£122m (m/pm) but imports down by more on the same meaure -£155m, so improving the trade balance.
Car sales are the obvious good news. Exports up £947m on the quarterly figures compared with imports up £435. This balance is slightly reversed in the monthly figures though.
But back to the real indicators of manufacturing revival. The increases in imports are coming in Intermediate Goods (Exp. £61, Imp. £342m month), Chemicals (Exp. -£191m, Imp. +£271) and Semi-manufactured goods other than chemicals (Exp. -40; Imp.+ £112).
What this seems to indicate is that, once oil trade is excluded, the vast bulk of the increase in imports is going to factory gates rather than shop shelves. A good not a bad sign for the economy.
http://greenparty.org.uk/assets/files/Elections/webverLE09cands.pdf
Might Britain get its second female PM in 2013?
Next time he will jump up and down when someone else posts a link first.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-22083032
Way to go Kent PCC Ann Barnes.
Mr. Brooke, your irrational prejudice towards the current government is blinding you. The thirty year BoP problem you correctly identify will not disappear in a single month's statistics. It will be especially difficult to reverse in a period of enforced fiscal consolidation. But the signs of proper correction are beginning to come through in the figures.
For example, we are not seeing increased trade imbalances due to a boom in imported consumer goods. We are seeing increased investment and output in our main exporting productive sectors. We are seeing manufacturing slowly recover at a time when production is plummeting in all our main European competitor countries.
Take today's ONS news on Industrial production:
UK industrial production rose by 1.0 per cent month-on-month in February, when compared with the previous month, but even so remained at the same level as in September 2012. Manufacturing output rose by 0.8 per cent on the month, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
The consensus estimate was for a gain in industrial production of 0.1% month-on-month (-2.9% year-on-year). Manufacturing output was expected to increase by 0.3% month-on-month.
An improvement was registered in all sectors, the first time this has happened since July 2012.
All sectors rose during the month in question – this last happened in July 2012. Despite the increase in production though the index is still only at the same level as in September 2012. In mining&quarrying output grew by 2.8% versus February whilst Energy supply did so by 1.3% and that of water&waste management did so by 0.8%.
The largest gains within manufacturing were those for machinery&equipment (3.3%), transport equipment (2.1%) and basic metals (1.8%).
In terms of quarterly rates of change industrial production grew by 0.3% and in manufacturing contracted by 0.2%.
You may wish for more dramatic and faster changes but this would be near impossible to deliver without causing massive corresponding distortions in the overall economy, e.g in debt levels and servicing costs.
George is a skilled doctor. The English patient is slowly recovering. We must be patient and keep faith.
Was that the shade used on an Austin Allegro?
Odds pls PetertP
It looked exactly like this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Chrysler_Avenger_Estate_UL.jpg
I remember my dad putting the back seats down and my sister and I snoozing in the back in sleeping bags during a long journey. H&S hadn't even been invented back then!
I got the problem a moment ago which I resolved by purging the page.
Speaking of the 70s, my wife and I emigrated from England during the winter of discontent. It was a nightmare. There was garbage everywhere, the truck drivers were on strike, so there was a fuel shortage and it meant that traveling round to say goodbye to friends and family meant renting cars, as it was the only way you could get petrol. Moving out of our house was a problem for the same reason, and getting our furniture to the docks for shipping was also a nightmare.
It was so bad that we didn't even want to visit again for over a decade. The UK in the 70s was a grim and dire place - something needed to be done.
I wasn't in the country during Thatcher's time, merely observing from afar. But love or hate her, she changed the terms of the debate.
It's in a highly active seismic area. Lord knows why they chose it, to be honest.
Oops, sorry about that, although not responsible for the entire 7.2%, - just spent three days celebrating a family christening and get together on the south coast. – life goes on - as do such ‘celebrations’ I’m afraid.
I have little more to add.
May I be so bold as to suggest counselling may help?
After twenty-four hours of the effusive and vitriolic tributes to Margaret Thatcher, I'm left with a number of unconnected thoughts so here goes:
Inasmuch as can be said about anyone, Margaret Thatcher was a product of her time and her background. She was a suburban woman with suburban mores and values honed in the 40s and 50s and who came to champion a generation traumatised by the social upheavals of the 60s and 70s.
I would argue she led a countercultural revolution in which she and those like her sought to reshape the country around values of former times and policy was honed to that end. The problem was that while the economic and political battles could be fought and won, the societal and cultural war was already lost.
A consequence of that was that the essence of self-responsibility, a central tenet of the Thatcherite ethos, went largely unachieved. Indeed, while it may have been "Victorian values" that some in her Party were seeking, it was the French concept of enrichessez-vous as propounded by Guizot which came to rule the day.
To be more controversial, she enjoyed the luck that seems to find certain politicians but used good fortune to the maximum. Did she change Britain? To an extent, yes, but technological innovation played its part and I would contend that some of the structural changes might well have happened anyway. From the 80s we have the mobile phone, the personal computer and the video recorder, the descendants of which are essential to the lives of so many today.
She played a supporting role in the denouement of the Cold War though Mikhail Gorbachev's role was infinitely more important. I credit her with seeing the inherent flaws in European federalism and German re-unification and with understanding the problem of climate change and the need to safeguard the environment.
The demographic timebomb was known about in the 1980s and here again perhaps the onus on self-responsibility was an inherent failing in an economic culture predicated on consumption. Had the 1980s instigated a proper savings culture and given future pension provision the attention it needed, we would not be in the mess we are today (though both the Major and Blair administrations are also at fault).
For me, her record is mixed. The irony is that while some claim she continues to shape politics today, I'm less convinced. The more I listen to Cameron, Milliband and Clegg, the 1980s politician I hear is David Owen.
There's a thought...
It appears Warwickshire is still covered in snow.
Yes, in many ways it was but in other ways it was much better than today. It was a freer, friendlier place, despite the problems with inflation prices for essentials were affordable for the average working bloke and HMG was not constantly trying to organise peoples' lives. I had a great time.
"I have little more to add
May I be so bold as to suggest counselling may help?"
Mr Pole,
you may have left it too late, but I will try to counsel you where I can and lead you back to the rightward paths and away from the big state.
BBC Parliament will be re-broadcasting the BBC's 1979 election programme in full, this Saturday from 9am.
Should be good...
Legislation to promote occupational pension schemes pre-dated Thatcher and on the whole was very successful. The UK was probably the best prepared in Europe by the end of the 1980s. The rot set in when companies were allowed to take contribution holidays if their schemes were in surplus (as many were) and then Brown got his sticky mits on the levers and totally destroyed they whole thing - for the private sector.