A great day for midwifery services in NI, as all those Remainers rush to Belfast so their little darlings can still have a soft maroon EU passport.....
@Mortimer Not when if we end up sticking to Single Market/Customs Union rules it isn’t.
@felix I’ll talk about what I want thanks. Weren’t you one of the Tories who thought you were going win big in June? Perhaps you aren’t the expert you think you are.
The funny thing is I've long felt that was where we would end up whatever anyone has had to say.
In the long run we will either be in EFTA, in some way associated with it, or in something almost identical. It's an outcome that should suit the largest number of people, and one that I believe would have won the most support if it had been part of the referendum.
I am interpreting this as saying basically that the DUP will have final say on whether we have full alignment or not across the whole UK, if some kind of FTA/customs agreement is not done.
It reads to me as if the DUP have been given a veto on the way forward in the longer run.
That and the firm, warm words on border was probably enough.
Nope - the Irish have the veto. They decide whether British border propisals are acceptable or we have regulatory alignment. This is a huge win for them.
Where do Labour go from here? Party of full Remain?
Lol.
Might even lead to defections of MPs, and would probably mean 5 Southern seats are gained at the expense of 45 midland/northern seats.
. It isn’t Labour who will have to deal with a potential backlash from their (mostly Remain voters). The Tories however have many Leaver ‘immigration is the worst thing to happen ever’ voters who won’t be happy that free movement isn’t ending. Tories are in some ways in the worst of both worlds - the party of Brexit which will put off the socially liberal voters, but not the party of Hard Brexit (which will anger socially conservative hardcore Leavers).
You really don't understand those that voted for Brexit. Just escaping the EU's orbit is the victory.
There really is nothing to be gained from opening up that victory to minor degrees of improvement. A huge portion of the Conservative Party - and its voters - will just think "Job done. Move on to making Brexit Britain the best it can be." Anyone that still wants more could conceivably go to UKIP. But they won't. I suspect that UKIP is dead in the water now. There simply is no "big ticket item" left for it to secure. We are an independent United Kingdom.
I think it’s you who may not understand those who voted for Brexit. I know a number of Brexiteers, the issue was immigration. Much of the research done shows that the big issue for them is immigration. That’s the big reason why they voted for Brexit.
Dan Hannan style free-marketeers are not really all that representative.
Having had a difficult couple of days back in hospital following my recent bi lateral hernia operation, and having gone through extensive tests, I have received the all clear and just need some more recovery time
I have not been following developments obviously but hearing the early morning news that Theresa had done the deaI I turned on the news and all the reporters could do was to look for bad news in the story.
Sadly it must be dawning on them that Brexit is going to happen and they are really struggling with it.
However, well done Theresa and lets all look forward to Christmas
I am interpreting this as saying basically that the DUP will have final say on whether we have full alignment or not across the whole UK, if some kind of FTA/customs agreement is not done.
It reads to me as if the DUP have been given a veto on the way forward in the longer run.
That and the firm, warm words on border was probably enough.
Nope - the Irish have the veto. They decide whether British border propisals are acceptable or we have regulatory alignment. This is a huge win for them.
Could you point out where it says that in the text?
I am interpreting this as saying basically that the DUP will have final say on whether we have full alignment or not across the whole UK, if some kind of FTA/customs agreement is not done.
It reads to me as if the DUP have been given a veto on the way forward in the longer run.
That and the firm, warm words on border was probably enough.
Does that reduce the chance of the DUP bringing down the government then? A new GE is unlikely to give them a Tory party in that sweet spot of seats needed for the DUP to have that veto after all.
"The United Kingdom remains committed to protecting North-South cooperation and to its guarantee of avoiding a hard border. Any future arrangements must be compatible with these overarching requirements. The United Kingdom's intention is to achieve these objectives through the overall EU-UK relationship. Should this not be possible, the United Kingdom will propose specific solutions to address the unique circumstances of the island of Ireland. In the absence of agreed solutions, the United Kingdom will maintain full alignment with those rules of the Internal Market and the Customs Union which, now or in the future, support North-South cooperation, the allisland economy and the protection of the 1998 Agreement."
Could be seen as a bit kicking the can down the road to be honest.
Not really. The final sentence is the agreed line in the sand. The UK either comes up with acceptable solutions or there is regulatory alignment.
That's how I read it at first blush (IAN of course AL).
So in short, it looks like we will head to a place that is not as good as we had but not as bad as it could have been.
@Mortimer Not when if we end up sticking to Single Market/Customs Union rules it isn’t.
@felix I’ll talk about what I want thanks. Weren’t you one of the Tories who thought you were going win big in June? Perhaps you aren’t the expert you think you are.
Err - wrong. I always expected a much more modest result than the polls as you will see if you check the archives. I have also never claimed to be an expert. Apart from that spot on.
Having had a difficult couple of days back in hospital following my recent bi lateral hernia operation, and having gone through extensive tests, I have received the all clear and just need some more recovery time
Yep, disastrously the Irish have got everything they wanted.
Exactly, how can it be an L (loss) for Vardakar? Or indeed Remainers (most of us wanted a Soft Brexit and were told time and time again that it wasn’t a proper Brexit and that we needed to support the hardest Brexit possible).
Yep, disastrously the Irish have got everything they wanted.
The notion this is a capitulation by the Irish is up there in terms of understanding with those thinking Ruth Davidson was demanding hard Brexit earlier this week.
Even if you were right - no-one much will know, because Labour has not been heard in this Brexit process. Mostly because Labour has a leader who talks out of both sides of his mouth on the EU.
Who cares? We’re leaving in name only!
we're heading towards what the UK wanted in 1973 a trading relationship but no integration
given the latest pronouncements of this week re USE thats quite an achievement
We have a line in the sand. We’ll be integrated, but there’ll be no more integration unless we specifically agree. It is undoubtedly a solution most can live with. There’ll be no big, bucanerring FTAs, no major deregulation, no chlorinated chicken (!!); but there’s also no chance of sleepwalking into a USE. The headbangers on both sides will be furious. But so what?
By accident, or by design, the semi-meltdown of the government (does anyone really think that David Davis has played a part of strategic genius ?) in the last few days appears to have reconciled the headbangers to a number of compromises which previously looked seriously problematic. That the DUP - the headbangiest of headbangers - are pretty well committed to this stage of the agreement doesn't leave much fertile ground for the JRM/Farage tendencies. I haven't changed my opinion of May as an inveterate prevaricator, but she deserves great credit for pulling this one out of the fire at five to midnight.
Being forced to deal with the NI issue before anything else (which both leavers and retainers have consistently complained of as unreasonableness on the EU's part) has somewhat fortuitously ended up providing a path toward the least worst Brexit.
Where do Labour go from here? Party of full Remain?
Lol.
Might even lead to defections of MPs, and would probably mean 5 Southern seats are gained at the expense of 45 midland/northern seats.
. It isn’t Labour who will have to deal with a potential backlash from their (mostly Remain voters). The Tories however have many Leaver ‘immigration is the worst thing to happen ever’ voters who won’t be happy that free movement isn’t ending. Tories are in some ways in the worst of both worlds - the party of Brexit which will put off the socially liberal voters, but not the party of Hard Brexit (which will anger socially conservative hardcore Leavers).
You really don't understand those that voted for Brexit. Just escaping the EU's orbit is the victory.
There really is nothing to be gained from opening up that victory to minor degrees of improvement. A huge portion of the Conservative Party - and its voters - will just think "Job done. Move on to making Brexit Britain the best it can be." Anyone that still wants more could conceivably go to UKIP. But they won't. I suspect that UKIP is dead in the water now. There simply is no "big ticket item" left for it to secure. We are an independent United Kingdom.
I think it’s you who may not understand those who voted for Brexit. I know a number of Brexiteers, the issue was immigration. Much of the research done shows that the big issue for them is immigration. That’s the big reason why they voted for Brexit.
Dan Hannan style free-marketeers are not really all that representative.
With respect, how much door knocking do you do to get your political insights? The issue I heard about immigration was that "we can't stop 'em coming 'ere!".
The issue will now move to the political will to stop them coming here. The politicians will now have the tools - and the voters will have the ability to remove those who they feel aren't using them. Or, they might be persuadable that we do need fruit-pickers or curry-makers or coffee baristas - on short term visas. At least there can now be a meaningful debate, with differing outcomes as options. Not so much before Brexit.
Yep, disastrously the Irish have got everything they wanted.
The notion this is a capitulation by the Irish is up there in terms of understanding with those thinking Ruth Davidson was demanding hard Brexit earlier this week.
@Mortimer Not when if we end up sticking to Single Market/Customs Union rules it isn’t.
@felix I’ll talk about what I want thanks. Weren’t you one of the Tories who thought you were going win big in June? Perhaps you aren’t the expert you think you are.
Err - wrong. I always expected a much more modest result than the polls as you will see if you check the archives. I have also never claimed to be an expert. Apart from that spot on.
Point taken on June. When you decide to patronise someone because they say things that you don’t like you behave as though you think you are an expert.
Yep, disastrously the Irish have got everything they wanted.
The notion this is a capitulation by the Irish is up there in terms of understanding with those thinking Ruth Davidson was demanding hard Brexit earlier this week.
Indeed. Davidson and the soft Brexit Scottish Tories will be very pleased with today’s news.
Well, it seems the apologists for the Prime Minister are in jovial spirits and apparently we have to stop criticising the wonderful Mrs May and look forward to Christmas.
Not very likely.
Not of course when you consider how much this small piece of pre-Christmas cheer has cost us all but no one is willing to talk about the £40 billion or £50 billion or whatever it is. Barnier looks happy enough so it's probably a big number and May looks glad to have survived another week.
As for Northern Ireland, no "hard border" so plenty of problems kicked down the road. When the UK leaves the Single Market, ends FoM and introduces some new immigration policy, there will be this big open border for people to cross if they care or dare. I'm far from convinced some wondrous piece of technology exists which could make it all seamless - if it did, the Americans would have introduced it at the Tijuana border crossing.
The migrant question remains messy and unresolved too - will giving a blanket right to stay for all EU citizens go down well ? I suspect not.
Exactly, how can it be an L (loss) for Vardakar? Or indeed Remainers (most of us wanted a Soft Brexit and were told time and time again that it wasn’t a proper Brexit and that we needed to support the hardest Brexit possible).
You could equally say that Remainers have lost as a collapse of talks is now very unlikely. We have agreed an exit, if not a future relationship. Leaving the EU now looks to be all but unstoppable.
Yep, disastrously the Irish have got everything they wanted.
Citation required.
Read the agreement.
I have - I first posted a link to it - which is I wonder whether you've read it. Cite the paragraphs you believe support the Irish have got 'everything they wanted'
I am interpreting this as saying basically that the DUP will have final say on whether we have full alignment or not across the whole UK, if some kind of FTA/customs agreement is not done.
It reads to me as if the DUP have been given a veto on the way forward in the longer run.
That and the firm, warm words on border was probably enough.
Nope - the Irish have the veto. They decide whether British border propisals are acceptable or we have regulatory alignment. This is a huge win for them.
Could you point out where it says that in the text?
Here:
49. The United Kingdom remains committed to protecting North-South cooperation and to its guarantee of avoiding a hard border. Any future arrangements must be compatible with these overarching requirements. The United Kingdom's intention is to achieve these objectives through the overall EU-UK relationship. Should this not be possible, the United Kingdom will propose specific solutions to address the unique circumstances of the island of Ireland. In the absence of agreed solutions, the United Kingdom will maintain full alignment with those rules of the Internal Market and the Customs Union which, now or in the future, support North-South cooperation, the all-island economy and the protection of the 1998 Agreement.
50. In the absence of agreed solutions, as set out in the previous paragraph, the United Kingdom will ensure that no new regulatory barriers develop between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom, unless, consistent with the 1998 Agreement, the Northern Ireland Executive and Assembly agree that distinct arrangements are appropriate for Northern Ireland. In all circumstances, the United Kingdom will continue to ensure the same unfettered access for Northern Ireland's businesses to the whole of the United Kingdom internal market.
This means: * The UK wants a deal which makes a soft border possible. If the EU fail to agree with the UK's proposals (and it's politically unthinkable that the EU27 would override Irish objections), then full alignment with the IM and CU is maintained for anything relating to Ireland., such as agriculture. * It's not possible for NI to have full alignment with the EU and to have unfettered access to the rest of the UK without the UK also being fully aligned to the IM and CU.
So, we seem to have decided that the default is full alignment with the IM and CU (which is more or less the Norway option, accepting the rules without being part of the process), unless we come up with something that Ireland and the others can accept.
Having had a difficult couple of days back in hospital following my recent bi lateral hernia operation, and having gone through extensive tests, I have received the all clear and just need some more recovery time
I have not been following developments obviously but hearing the early morning news that Theresa had done the deaI I turned on the news and all the reporters could do was to look for bad news in the story.
Sadly it must be dawning on them that Brexit is going to happen and they are really struggling with it.
However, well done Theresa and lets all look forward to Christmas
Take it easy, Big fella.
Hopefully your blood pressure can come down a few points on the back of the various pieces of news!
My guess would be that about 75% of Leavers and about 50% of Remainers will be content with this outcome.
I’d go much higher on Remainers - most of who have been worried about the kind of Brexit we’d get rather than Brexit itself. All the signs now are pointing soft to runny, so that’s very good news.
Exactly, how can it be an L (loss) for Vardakar? Or indeed Remainers (most of us wanted a Soft Brexit and were told time and time again that it wasn’t a proper Brexit and that we needed to support the hardest Brexit possible).
You could equally say that Remainers have lost as a collapse of talks is now very unlikely. We have agreed an exit, if not a future relationship. Leaving the EU now looks to be all but unstoppable.
It was always all but unstoppable. The idea that a collapse would lead to us somehow remaining was always a delusion.
"The United Kingdom remains committed to protecting North-South cooperation and to its guarantee of avoiding a hard border. Any future arrangements must be compatible with these overarching requirements. The United Kingdom's intention is to achieve these objectives through the overall EU-UK relationship. Should this not be possible, the United Kingdom will propose specific solutions to address the unique circumstances of the island of Ireland. In the absence of agreed solutions, the United Kingdom will maintain full alignment with those rules of the Internal Market and the Customs Union which, now or in the future, support North-South cooperation, the allisland economy and the protection of the 1998 Agreement."
Could be seen as a bit kicking the can down the road to be honest.
Not really. The final sentence is the agreed line in the sand. The UK either comes up with acceptable solutions or there is regulatory alignment.
My guess would be that about 75% of Leavers and about 50% of Remainers will be content with this outcome.
I'd say 90% of Remainers will be content with this outcome given where we were a few days or weeks ago. Despite what some Leavers would believe nearly all of us accept the referendum result has to be honoured.
Yep, disastrously the Irish have got everything they wanted.
Citation required.
Read the agreement.
I have - I first posted a link to it - which is I wonder whether you've read it. Cite the paragraphs you believe support the Irish have got 'everything they wanted'
Paragraph 49. The final sentence, in particular. No change to the status of the Irish border has been guaranteed in writing. That was the Irish government’s clearly stated red line.
Where do Labour go from here? Party of full Remain?
Lol.
Might even lead to defections of MPs, and would probably mean 5 Southern seats are gained at the expense of 45 midland/northern seats.
. It isn’t Labour who will have to deal with a potential backlash from their (mostly Remain voters). The Tories however have many Leaver ‘immigration is the worst thing to happen ever’ voters who won’t be happy that free movement isn’t ending. Tories are in some ways in the worst of both worlds - the party of Brexit which will put off the socially liberal voters, but not the party of Hard Brexit (which will anger socially conservative hardcore Leavers).
You really don't understand those that voted for Brexit. Just escaping the EU's orbit is the victory.
There really is nothing to be gained from opening up that victory to minor degrees of improvement. A huge portion of the Conservative Party - and its voters - will just think "Job done. Move on to making Brexit Britain the best it can be." Anyone that still wants more could conceivably go to UKIP. But they won't. I suspect that UKIP is dead in the water now. There simply is no "big ticket item" left for it to secure. We are an independent United Kingdom.
I think it’s you who may not understand those who voted for Brexit. I know a number of Brexiteers, the issue was immigration. Much of the research done shows that the big issue for them is immigration. That’s the big reason why they voted for Brexit.
Dan Hannan style free-marketeers are not really all that representative.
With respect, how much door knocking do you do to get your political insights? The issue I heard about immigration was that "we can't stop 'em coming 'ere!".
The issue will now move to the political will to stop them coming here. The politicians will now have the tools - and the voters will have the ability to remove those who they feel aren't using them. Or, they might be persuadable that we do need fruit-pickers or curry-makers or coffee baristas - on short term visas. At least there can now be a meaningful debate, with differing outcomes as options. Not so much before Brexit.
My guess would be that about 75% of Leavers and about 50% of Remainers will be content with this outcome.
I'd say 90% of Remainers will be content with this outcome given where we were a few days or weeks ago. Despite what some Leavers would believe nearly all of us accept the referendum result has to be honoured.
Indeed. Hopefully the Remainers need to now move into the 'acceptance' stage. As do that the 'Leavers' need to accept that we have to get a best of a deal means not getting everything.
Having had a difficult couple of days back in hospital following my recent bi lateral hernia operation, and having gone through extensive tests, I have received the all clear and just need some more recovery time
My guess would be that about 75% of Leavers and about 50% of Remainers will be content with this outcome.
This. No doubt @Sean_F , me, @Mortimer and @Casino_Royale (and all other true Brexit yeomen and women of PB) would like separation to be more clear cut, but the key thing is that the probability of remaining just got a lot smaller.
We are getting off the integration train. Trade will not collapse. We are leaving.
Yep, disastrously the Irish have got everything they wanted.
Citation required.
Read the agreement.
I have - I first posted a link to it - which is I wonder whether you've read it. Cite the paragraphs you believe support the Irish have got 'everything they wanted'
Paragraph 49. The final sentence, in particular. No change to the status of the Irish border has been guaranteed in writing. That was the Irish government’s clearly stated red line.
No 'border in the Irish sea' - and you seem to have skipped the second half of para 45:
The United Kingdom also recalls its commitment to preserving the integrity of its internal market and Northern Ireland's place within it, as the United Kingdom leaves the European Union's Internal Market and Customs Union.
Varadkar 'had a veto' to hold up trade talks - he's traded it for fudge and 'nothing is agreed until everything is agreed'
My guess would be that about 75% of Leavers and about 50% of Remainers will be content with this outcome.
This. No doubt @Sean_F , me, @Mortimer and @Casino_Royale (and all other true Brexit yeomen and women of PB) would like separation to be more clear cut, but the key thing is that the probability of remaining just got a lot smaller.
We are getting off the integration train. Trade will not collapse. We are leaving.
Politicians will now have the tools to stop it? We’ll see....
The demographics of the UK dictate that they can't stop it. All Brexit means is that immigration will be predominantly muslim Asians and Africans rather than Orthodox and Catholic Eastern Europeans.
Having had a difficult couple of days back in hospital following my recent bi lateral hernia operation, and having gone through extensive tests, I have received the all clear and just need some more recovery time
I have not been following developments obviously but hearing the early morning news that Theresa had done the deaI I turned on the news and all the reporters could do was to look for bad news in the story.
Sadly it must be dawning on them that Brexit is going to happen and they are really struggling with it.
However, well done Theresa and lets all look forward to Christmas
Take it easy! You want to be on top form for Christmas
Exactly, how can it be an L (loss) for Vardakar? Or indeed Remainers (most of us wanted a Soft Brexit and were told time and time again that it wasn’t a proper Brexit and that we needed to support the hardest Brexit possible).
You could equally say that Remainers have lost as a collapse of talks is now very unlikely. We have agreed an exit, if not a future relationship. Leaving the EU now looks to be all but unstoppable.
No, you couldn’t. It wasn’t Remainers who wanted a Hard Brexit (which is what the collapse of talks would have meant). Most Remainers knew Brexit was going to happen, so we wanted a Soft Brexit.
Having had a difficult couple of days back in hospital following my recent bi lateral hernia operation, and having gone through extensive tests, I have received the all clear and just need some more recovery time
I have not been following developments obviously but hearing the early morning news that Theresa had done the deaI I turned on the news and all the reporters could do was to look for bad news in the story.
Sadly it must be dawning on them that Brexit is going to happen and they are really struggling with it.
However, well done Theresa and lets all look forward to Christmas
Good to hear from you and glad you’re on the mend! Take it easy and look forward to Christmas
Having had a difficult couple of days back in hospital following my recent bi lateral hernia operation, and having gone through extensive tests, I have received the all clear and just need some more recovery time
Best wishes.
Thanks Jack
Glad to hear you are on the mend Big_G. Good news all round!
Politicians will now have the tools to stop it? We’ll see....
The demographics of the UK dictate that they can't stop it. All Brexit means is that immigration will be predominantly muslim Asians and Africans rather than Orthodox and Catholic Eastern Europeans.
I'm afraid you may be right. Afraid in the sense of what many people's reaction to that will be.
My guess would be that about 75% of Leavers and about 50% of Remainers will be content with this outcome.
The happy ones don't seem to be posting on ConHome:
"Total sell out by PM Mayhem"
"Would someone kindly summarise what the EU have conceded or given up? "
"Time for a challenge in the courts that May cannot sign this without Parliament’s agreement? "
"she has give up the big benefit of Brexit which was to allow the 94% of businesses that don’t trade with the EU the ability to deregulate. For nothing. "
"PM May must resign. This capitulation is humiliating"
"So, why are we leaving? "
"A Tory PM goes to Brussels to lick the dirt off the shoes of the EU. "
"Not sure whether to laugh or cry"
"Well, what was the point of committing time, money and effort to Leave? "
although to be fair there are one or two that recognise the PM's pragmatism.
Politicians will now have the tools to stop it? We’ll see....
The demographics of the UK dictate that they can't stop it. All Brexit means is that immigration will be predominantly muslim Asians and Africans rather than Orthodox and Catholic Eastern Europeans.
Agreed. And I bet Leavers will be so pleased about that....
My guess would be that about 75% of Leavers and about 50% of Remainers will be content with this outcome.
I'd say 90% of Remainers will be content with this outcome given where we were a few days or weeks ago. Despite what some Leavers would believe nearly all of us accept the referendum result has to be honoured.
Indeed. Hopefully the Remainers need to now move into the 'acceptance' stage. As do that the 'Leavers' need to accept that we have to get a best of a deal means not getting everything.
Until we know that the outcome of the Electoral Commission investigation into Vote Leave and Leave EU we cannot presume that the leave victory was democratic.
Yep, disastrously the Irish have got everything they wanted.
Citation required.
Read the agreement.
I have - I first posted a link to it - which is I wonder whether you've read it. Cite the paragraphs you believe support the Irish have got 'everything they wanted'
Paragraph 49. The final sentence, in particular. No change to the status of the Irish border has been guaranteed in writing. That was the Irish government’s clearly stated red line.
No 'border in the Irish sea' - and you seem to have skipped the second half of para 45:
The United Kingdom also recalls its commitment to preserving the integrity of its internal market and Northern Ireland's place within it, as the United Kingdom leaves the European Union's Internal Market and Customs Union.
Varadkar 'had a veto' to hold up trade talks - he's traded it for fudge and 'nothing is agreed until everything is agreed'
He has given it up for the ability to decide whether the UK retains regulatory alignment with the EU in order to preserve the current status of the Irish border. In other words, Ireland decides what the Irish border with the UK will look like. If you wish to see that as a defeat, so be it.
@Mortimer Not when if we end up sticking to Single Market/Customs Union rules it isn’t.
Someone who knows more about this can put me right, but is it not the case that what was agreed today was that we'd mirror rules in terms of regulations? The whole issue of FoM is still to come but I'm pretty sure we'll be leaving the Single Market so that will end FoM.
@Mortimer Not when if we end up sticking to Single Market/Customs Union rules it isn’t.
@felix I’ll talk about what I want thanks. Weren’t you one of the Tories who thought you were going win big in June? Perhaps you aren’t the expert you think you are.
Err - wrong. I always expected a much more modest result than the polls as you will see if you check the archives. I have also never claimed to be an expert. Apart from that spot on.
Point taken on June. When you decide to patronise someone because they say things that you don’t like you behave as though you think you are an expert.
What you are now an agony aunty as well? Maybe you think you're an expert.
Having had a difficult couple of days back in hospital following my recent bi lateral hernia operation, and having gone through extensive tests, I have received the all clear and just need some more recovery time
I have not been following developments obviously but hearing the early morning news that Theresa had done the deaI I turned on the news and all the reporters could do was to look for bad news in the story.
Sadly it must be dawning on them that Brexit is going to happen and they are really struggling with it.
However, well done Theresa and lets all look forward to Christmas
Take it easy, Big fella.
Hopefully your blood pressure can come down a few points on the back of the various pieces of news!
The strange thing is that through all this my blood pressure was reassuringly good but today's news should make a large part of the Country content and a big win for Theresa, after all her problems
So, was Monday's breakdown real, or all part of an elaborate dance?
As I said after I saw Theresa on Monday evening she was very upbeat
I think it was a show
I love your name dropping!
Anyway, that's not what the Queen said when I saw her Tuesday morning.
It's not meant to be name dropping - just to provide context.
People here were gloomy on Monday so I mentioned that I'd seen Theresa (quite by chance - it had been arranged for a while she'd say a few words at a drinks party I was at) and that she was more positive than I expected.
That's more useful to people on here than just saying "It'll be fine" without providing context
Yep, disastrously the Irish have got everything they wanted.
Citation required.
Read the agreement.
I have - I first posted a link to it - which is I wonder whether you've read it. Cite the paragraphs you believe support the Irish have got 'everything they wanted'
Paragraph 49. The final sentence, in particular. No change to the status of the Irish border has been guaranteed in writing. That was the Irish government’s clearly stated red line.
No 'border in the Irish sea' - and you seem to have skipped the second half of para 45:
The United Kingdom also recalls its commitment to preserving the integrity of its internal market and Northern Ireland's place within it, as the United Kingdom leaves the European Union's Internal Market and Customs Union.
Varadkar 'had a veto' to hold up trade talks - he's traded it for fudge and 'nothing is agreed until everything is agreed'
Ireland’s oft-stated objective was no change to the status if the border. Ireland has got that. You seem to think Varadker was seeking to use Brexit to unite Ireland. That was clearly not the case. He’s a Fine Gael politician, for starters.
Exactly, how can it be an L (loss) for Vardakar? Or indeed Remainers (most of us wanted a Soft Brexit and were told time and time again that it wasn’t a proper Brexit and that we needed to support the hardest Brexit possible).
You could equally say that Remainers have lost as a collapse of talks is now very unlikely. We have agreed an exit, if not a future relationship. Leaving the EU now looks to be all but unstoppable.
Not sure about that quote - but it wasn't me !!!!!
My guess would be that about 75% of Leavers and about 50% of Remainers will be content with this outcome.
I think that reflects the educational and intellectual standards of each group.
That’s probably correct, but think about why. Well educated correlates well with can get by or better in one or more European language, may have friends who live on the continent, generally able to take advantage of the benefits of the EU and probably don’t worry too much about competition from Eastern Europe for the type of jobs they do.
Just read an executive summary, I think everyone will be happy and unhappy.
I am relatively sanguine about it. Happy? That there is going to be some kind of discussion about trade, and that both sides are in compromising mood. Unhappy? Only if the hope had been for no Brexit which I don't think it was for most Remainers.
So given that we are leaving, we obviously want as much pragmatism as possible.
What that looks like for control, sovereignty, etc I have no idea and I don't think it should be looked at too closely by either side.
My guess would be that about 75% of Leavers and about 50% of Remainers will be content with this outcome.
The happy ones don't seem to be posting on ConHome:
"Total sell out by PM Mayhem"
"Would someone kindly summarise what the EU have conceded or given up? "
"Time for a challenge in the courts that May cannot sign this without Parliament’s agreement? "
"she has give up the big benefit of Brexit which was to allow the 94% of businesses that don’t trade with the EU the ability to deregulate. For nothing. "
"PM May must resign. This capitulation is humiliating"
"So, why are we leaving? "
"A Tory PM goes to Brussels to lick the dirt off the shoes of the EU. "
"Not sure whether to laugh or cry"
"Well, what was the point of committing time, money and effort to Leave? "
although to be fair there are one or two that recognise the PM's pragmatism.
Indeed. Tezza will probably do best to skip over the Torygraph letters page tomorrow too.
But these are just the headbangers. No nore than 5-10% of the country at most - they should not, and it seems have not been allowed to, dictate disaster to the rest of us.
Exactly, how can it be an L (loss) for Vardakar? Or indeed Remainers (most of us wanted a Soft Brexit and were told time and time again that it wasn’t a proper Brexit and that we needed to support the hardest Brexit possible).
You could equally say that Remainers have lost as a collapse of talks is now very unlikely. We have agreed an exit, if not a future relationship. Leaving the EU now looks to be all but unstoppable.
Not sure about that quote - but it wasn't me !!!!!
My guess would be that about 75% of Leavers and about 50% of Remainers will be content with this outcome.
I'd say 90% of Remainers will be content with this outcome given where we were a few days or weeks ago. Despite what some Leavers would believe nearly all of us accept the referendum result has to be honoured.
Indeed. Hopefully the Remainers need to now move into the 'acceptance' stage. As do that the 'Leavers' need to accept that we have to get a best of a deal means not getting everything.
Until we know that the outcome of the Electoral Commission investigation into Vote Leave and Leave EU we cannot presume that the leave victory was democratic.
Will they be investigating the government's pro-Remain propaganda sheet while they are at it?
My guess would be that about 75% of Leavers and about 50% of Remainers will be content with this outcome.
The happy ones don't seem to be posting on ConHome:
"Total sell out by PM Mayhem"
"Would someone kindly summarise what the EU have conceded or given up? "
"Time for a challenge in the courts that May cannot sign this without Parliament’s agreement? "
"she has give up the big benefit of Brexit which was to allow the 94% of businesses that don’t trade with the EU the ability to deregulate. For nothing. "
"PM May must resign. This capitulation is humiliating"
"So, why are we leaving? "
"A Tory PM goes to Brussels to lick the dirt off the shoes of the EU. "
"Not sure whether to laugh or cry"
"Well, what was the point of committing time, money and effort to Leave? "
although to be fair there are one or two that recognise the PM's pragmatism.
Con Home is not representative of the Tory party and the Tory party is not representative of most Tory voters. pretty much the same with momentum/Labour party and Labour voters. different from the LDs of course as they're all in one cab .
Today is a huge victory for the UK. Not over the EU, but over the loons who wanted No Deal. We have very sensibly given the EU27 what they wanted and can now talk trade. I struggle to see how that can be portrayed as a defeat.
Comments
@felix I’ll talk about what I want thanks. Weren’t you one of the Tories who thought you were going win big in June? Perhaps you aren’t the expert you think you are.
In the long run we will either be in EFTA, in some way associated with it, or in something almost identical. It's an outcome that should suit the largest number of people, and one that I believe would have won the most support if it had been part of the referendum.
You were the one who ran away
I was worried about you. Glad to see you got your mojo back...
Dan Hannan style free-marketeers are not really all that representative.
https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/939050192715751429
I have not been following developments obviously but hearing the early morning news that Theresa had done the deaI I turned on the news and all the reporters could do was to look for bad news in the story.
Sadly it must be dawning on them that Brexit is going to happen and they are really struggling with it.
However, well done Theresa and lets all look forward to Christmas
https://twitter.com/mikegalsworthy/status/939051300599291904
So in short, it looks like we will head to a place that is not as good as we had but not as bad as it could have been.
That the DUP - the headbangiest of headbangers - are pretty well committed to this stage of the agreement doesn't leave much fertile ground for the JRM/Farage tendencies.
I haven't changed my opinion of May as an inveterate prevaricator, but she deserves great credit for pulling this one out of the fire at five to midnight.
Being forced to deal with the NI issue before anything else (which both leavers and retainers have consistently complained of as unreasonableness on the EU's part) has somewhat fortuitously ended up providing a path toward the least worst Brexit.
The issue will now move to the political will to stop them coming here. The politicians will now have the tools - and the voters will have the ability to remove those who they feel aren't using them. Or, they might be persuadable that we do need fruit-pickers or curry-makers or coffee baristas - on short term visas. At least there can now be a meaningful debate, with differing outcomes as options. Not so much before Brexit.
https://twitter.com/vincecable/status/939053003226664960
Well, it seems the apologists for the Prime Minister are in jovial spirits and apparently we have to stop criticising the wonderful Mrs May and look forward to Christmas.
Not very likely.
Not of course when you consider how much this small piece of pre-Christmas cheer has cost us all but no one is willing to talk about the £40 billion or £50 billion or whatever it is. Barnier looks happy enough so it's probably a big number and May looks glad to have survived another week.
As for Northern Ireland, no "hard border" so plenty of problems kicked down the road. When the UK leaves the Single Market, ends FoM and introduces some new immigration policy, there will be this big open border for people to cross if they care or dare. I'm far from convinced some wondrous piece of technology exists which could make it all seamless - if it did, the Americans would have introduced it at the Tijuana border crossing.
The migrant question remains messy and unresolved too - will giving a blanket right to stay for all EU citizens go down well ? I suspect not.
49. The United Kingdom remains committed to protecting North-South cooperation and to
its guarantee of avoiding a hard border. Any future arrangements must be compatible
with these overarching requirements. The United Kingdom's intention is to achieve
these objectives through the overall EU-UK relationship. Should this not be possible,
the United Kingdom will propose specific solutions to address the unique
circumstances of the island of Ireland. In the absence of agreed solutions, the United
Kingdom will maintain full alignment with those rules of the Internal Market and the
Customs Union which, now or in the future, support North-South cooperation, the all-island
economy and the protection of the 1998 Agreement.
50. In the absence of agreed solutions, as set out in the previous paragraph, the United
Kingdom will ensure that no new regulatory barriers develop between Northern
Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom, unless, consistent with the 1998
Agreement, the Northern Ireland Executive and Assembly agree that distinct
arrangements are appropriate for Northern Ireland. In all circumstances, the United
Kingdom will continue to ensure the same unfettered access for Northern Ireland's
businesses to the whole of the United Kingdom internal market.
This means:
* The UK wants a deal which makes a soft border possible. If the EU fail to agree with the UK's proposals (and it's politically unthinkable that the EU27 would override Irish objections), then full alignment with the IM and CU is maintained for anything relating to Ireland., such as agriculture.
* It's not possible for NI to have full alignment with the EU and to have unfettered access to the rest of the UK without the UK also being fully aligned to the IM and CU.
So, we seem to have decided that the default is full alignment with the IM and CU (which is more or less the Norway option, accepting the rules without being part of the process), unless we come up with something that Ireland and the others can accept.
Hopefully your blood pressure can come down a few points on the back of the various pieces of news!
Maybe we should just have a day of patting each other (and yes, let's be fair, Theresa May) on the back?
Politicians will now have the tools to stop it? We’ll see....
We are getting off the integration train. Trade will not collapse. We are leaving.
I will settle for that.
The United Kingdom also recalls its commitment to preserving the integrity of its internal market and Northern Ireland's place within it, as the United Kingdom leaves the European Union's Internal Market and Customs Union.
Varadkar 'had a veto' to hold up trade talks - he's traded it for fudge and 'nothing is agreed until everything is agreed'
Just a thought - couldn't all UK and Irish citizens be given joint citizenship? Ireland could earn I few quid issuing 60 million extra passports.
Its a little embarrassing for her rookie PM who was discretely told off by two of his predecessors....
"Total sell out by PM Mayhem"
"Would someone kindly summarise what the EU have conceded or given up? "
"Time for a challenge in the courts that May cannot sign this without Parliament’s agreement? "
"she has give up the big benefit of Brexit which was to allow the 94% of businesses that don’t trade with the EU the ability to deregulate. For nothing. "
"PM May must resign. This capitulation is humiliating"
"So, why are we leaving? "
"A Tory PM goes to Brussels to lick the dirt off the shoes of the EU. "
"Not sure whether to laugh or cry"
"Well, what was the point of committing time, money and effort to Leave? "
although to be fair there are one or two that recognise the PM's pragmatism.
My concern is that this will linger rather than be resolved, fester, rather than mend. But we will see in time how things go.
https://twitter.com/NigelDoddsDUP/status/939053486532161536
Just the metropolitan usurpers
* not that I would know them, of course, being a humble shopkeeper
EDIT: I see that you've seen that.
What about HYUFD?
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ireland-demand-sea-border-with-uk-brexit-leo-varadkar-a7863986.html
People here were gloomy on Monday so I mentioned that I'd seen Theresa (quite by chance - it had been arranged for a while she'd say a few words at a drinks party I was at) and that she was more positive than I expected.
That's more useful to people on here than just saying "It'll be fine" without providing context
https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/939058587762118657?s=17
So given that we are leaving, we obviously want as much pragmatism as possible.
What that looks like for control, sovereignty, etc I have no idea and I don't think it should be looked at too closely by either side.
But these are just the headbangers. No nore than 5-10% of the country at most - they should not, and it seems have not been allowed to, dictate disaster to the rest of us.