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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ex-CON leadership favourite, DDavis, slips to just 6.6% chance on Betfair
.@ChukaUmunna has written to the Speaker to initiate contempt proceedings against @DavidDavisMP for telling MPs in October Brexit impact assessments were being made, when in fact – according to Davis’s testimony today – no such risk assessments have been made
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https://medium.com/@ethanarsht/napoleon-was-the-best-general-ever-and-the-math-proves-it-86efed303eeb
Discuss.
The idea that the country's future rests on his shoulders is terrifying.
I think the excruciating detail got lost somewhere along the ough perhaps DD finds anything beyond a single sheet of A4 excruciating ?
“Assessment” of 51 Sectors
“Impact” on individual nations of the U.K......
People haven’t been listening carefully enough.....
https://medium.com/@ethanarsht/napoleon-was-the-best-general-ever-and-the-math-proves-it-86efed303eeb
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/2017/12/06/biggest-ever-golden-goodbye-paid-bath-spa-universitys-vice-chancellor/
What the actual f##k...one of the crappiest universities in the country paid off the outgoing vice chancellor this much. I wonder all those £9k fees are going?
Footy crowds at their best.
Democracy, innit.
Is that the name of their Brazilian striker?
Napoleon was a military genius, who committed dreadful political errors.
Frederick the Great was a much less successful general, who was a political genius.
Had this crap government completed the impact assessments it said it was doing, they may well have helped decide what type of Brexit was acceptable.
The false prospectus that Leave campaigned on has been utterly tested to destruction. We will not get £350 million for the NHS but have to pay tens of billions into the EU. Mass Immigration will still continue because the UK needs to expand its notional economy and population to counter the fundamental demographic changes that are only just beginning. You cannot keep paying pensions out if your working population is declining nor keep spending on the NHS with its ever increasing demand. I used to be very sceptical of the EU and very anti - immigration until I worked out why mass Immigration will have to continue. The choice at the referendum being about stopping Turkish immigrants was another falsehood. All exiting the EU will mean is less white, European immigrants who are Christian or non religious in exchange for Immigrants from countries that are non Christian and indeed maybe Muslim. The difference being the Muslim countries post Brexit we encourage to migrate to the UK maybe more open to radicalisation in the future than a hypothetical entry by Turkey to the EU would ever have been. It is now my understanding that Turkey has little chance of ever meeting even the criteria to join the EU never mind actually becoming an accession state.
The sheer contradiction at the heart of Brexit is that "we do not need" the EU yet to avoid massive damage to the economy we have to negotiate a new trading relationship with the EU. The reliance on Europe in the past and in the future is not going to disappear however much Leave supporters protest. They have mislead the public on the difficulty in negotiating new trading relationships with other states in the world unless we yield to other states negotiating position. In other words the desperate and seemingly one-sided negotiations that the UK are currently involved in will be replicated with other large economies with the same outcome, which will not be an optimal trading relationship for the UK. We will have signed away any competitive advantage we may have had because we will be perceived to be on our uppers.
I see IDS has said we should just walk away as a country and not try for a deal even with the elite Leavers in the cabinet functioning in all the relevant positions for exiting the EU. The only thing I say to a premier league arsehole like IDS is that it is time to walk away from Brexit altogether. We have tried to play the Brexit game using the most vociferous advocates of the Brexit strategy in the Conservative party and government for 18 months and have capitulated to the EU on almost everything. This process is patently unresolvable and the UK should quit A50 immediately.
https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-will-not-pay-lump-sum-brexit-bill-according-to-draft-eu-uk-brexit-agreement/
There are a few things in here that are more favourable to the UK:
1. ECJ referrals not binding and subject to an overall sunset clause. Having 'due regard' to ECJ laws and a voluntary and non binding referral system may just be on the right side of the red line.
2. UK insists on an explicit link between financial offer and trade deal.
3. UK has not agreed percentage of EU budget that it will cover, so flexibility to trade this off against the trade deal in stage 2.
Unfortunately, agreeing regulatory alignment is an absolute red line and a deal killer. Wondering if the EU now regret letting Varadkar out of his box.
(Of course at the time I didn't realise that I was being serious!)
Re "Wondering if the EU now regret letting Varadkar out of his box."
You seem not to have noticed that it's not the EU that is currently in meltdown but the UK Government. (And I am sure Varadkar does not need the EU's permission to speak.)
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/5083324/david-davis-plot-remove-replace-theresa-may-pm-prime-minister/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
Actually probably quite good as it makes me draw breath before replying to some postings and restrain my language somewhat.
What price democracy?
"Oh we know you wanted to do this but we have made a half hearted and completely cack handed attempt and now because of our own incompetence we have decided to ignore you"
You really want people to lose what last shreds of faith they have in our political system? The alternatives are not pretty at all.
I have exclusive access to the unredacted documents. The following text is repeatedly redacted:
"Results of impact assessment to go in here. Results of impact assessment to go in here. Results of impact..."
You seem to be forgetting that Remainers know better than the voters. How silly of you.
No mention in this thread anywhere that of the 4 currently ahead of Davis in the betting, Rees-Mogg, Leadsom, Boris and Rudd in that order, 3 are even firmer Brexiteers than Davis.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.125574963
@DuncanWeldon: Lack of Brexit impact assessments is staggering. Just really sinking in for me.
This matters to the economy more than any budget, but imagine if the Chancellor announced a load of tax changes and said “nah, we haven’t modelled this. It’ll be fine”.
Napoleon was a military genius, who committed dreadful political errors.
Frederick the Great was a much less successful general, who was a political genius.
Napoleon was a political genius too (indeed, one of his great legacies lies in domestic French politics), but wasn't an able diplomatist - but then that's not all that surprising if you think you can always fight yourself out of a tight spot.
Interesting that Wellington came third - that two of the top three in a list spanning two and a half centuries or so were born in the same year and ultimately faced each other.
It is just happening entirely on the EU's terms. We will probably end up being in the single market in all but name, subject to its rules albeit without being an active participant in it, and gaining few of the benefits.
Whatever leverage we had, we squandered through hubris.
Not saying that I am the Messiah (just a very naughty boy) but there is a chance that, after 40 days and 40 nights working away from home on a contract, I might actually get home to see my family tomorrow. The next few hours will tell...
http://fortune.com/2017/12/06/oliver-schmidt-vw-emissions-cheating
Really, that’s their best offer? That’s the plan? To swagger into Brussels with Union Jack pants on and say: “ ’Ello luv, you’re looking nice today. Would you like some?”
When the rest of us ask how that’s really going to work, leavers reply, with Terry-Thomas smirks, that “they’re going to still really fancy us, honest, they’re gagging for us. Possibly not Merkel, but the bosses of Mercedes and those French vintners and cheesemakers, they can’t get enough of old John Bull. Of course they’re going to want to go on making the free market with two backs after we’ve got the decree nisi. Makes sense, doesn’t it?”
That is the price for ending free movement.
Had we thought this through a bit better and not got bounced in to triggering article 50, we could have probably got a better outcome.
People will vote whatever happens. Things move on. Half the country is usually on the losing side and sometimes in the UK the losers have won and vice versa. Nothing new in this.
The people who wanted Brexit are in the cabinet and negotiating. They have had their turn and have floundered. Politics is based on a dialectical process in the UK. The Brexit/ Leave proposition has been tested. It has shown to be a vacuum with an absence of any substance.
A general election has ensued since the Brexit vote, I voted Tory despite my reluctance for the party visiting such a ridiculous situation on the country. If I can vote in an election after a decision went the wrong way I am sure others can. Leave told the electorate a crock of shite. I am more worried what will happen if the nutters get their way and have no Brexit deal at all. The pain visited on the economy could be something only normally seen in war time. The Brexit secretary has admitted this. In our darkest hour in the second world war we suspended democracy. Sometimes the people do not make a good decision - Brexit is one of those which is fundamentally flawed. Not even the people who advocate it have any clue on how to deliver it.
For the love of God, can’t Johnson be made Governor of St Helena or somewhere similar where he can do no more harm?
the idea that the Brexit proposition has been tested is a ludicrous statement that only a die hard Remainer could make.
There were and are many ways in which Brexit could work but we have the misfortune to have our future being decided by a Remain voting PM who doesn't believe in Brexit and lacks both the competence and the ability to make it work.
Of course people like you will try to claim this is because of Brexit rather than the idiocy of the people charged with seeing it through but no Leaver is going to give that argumenta minutes consideration and if you use that as an excuse to abandon the whole thing then you really are not going to like the consequences at all. We will still get Brexit but it will be a far more destructive and far more divisive result than you can imagine.
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/938534604759330816?s=17
Oh, and what the hell is David Davis up to?
Too late...the French and Russians have been doing this for ages now.
I am going to guess he was less happy about getting up at 3am to watch the cricket...I did warn him!
Sad to say BoJo as Governor of St Helena would probably accidentally insult Ascension Island leading to a military conflict.
Has she been head hunted by Harvard or Princeton ?
Eight of the 15 nations who are currently members of the UN Security Council have called for the body to hold an urgent meeting on the US decision by the end of the week.
--
I think Trump is right on Jerusalem. The West are just engaged in denial on the Middle East - there is no peace process and the Palestinians probably wasted whatever chance there ever was of a two state solution when they refused to agree to Clinton's solution. Just repeating 'two state solution' over and over again is not going to make it a reality.
The Arab world probably need to face reality - they tried to destroy Israel, they failed, they lost land in the conflict and they are not getting it back. They were offered a chance at a fair solution and they refused it. The US accepting Jerusalem as capital of Israel may help them realise that they need to deal with reality as it is now, rather than trying to re-wind the clock to where it was 50 years ago.
tbf that was the Lab strategy at the last GE campaign.
Frederick the Great was a much less successful general, who was a political genius. '
I'd say you had FtG the wrong way round - it wasn't political genius that got him fighting Austria, France, Russia, Sweden and Saxony simultaneously.
But it was military genius which saved him from defeat.
I've made the point a few times that people on here overestimate how much people are genuinely bothered about Brexit. Who are these millions of people who are going to rise up and get on to the streets to overthrow the government in the event that Brexit isn't delivered? The people who appear to be most angry about Brexit are old men, mainly posting on the internet. Are they really going to turn to violence if the will of the people isn't delivered? Most people don't care. They've got everyday life to be gettin on with.
The idea that failing to respect the referendum result will turn people against democracy and in to some kind of totalitarian belief system is another red herring. In my view, an equivalent or greater threat to social stability and our current political system is a sharp decline in living standards. People believe in the system as long as it is delivering for them. Corbyn's rise is as a product of failings in jobs, housing and inequality. If we leave the EU and these problems get worse, then that would be more harmful to the the stability of our system, than ignoring the referendum result.
Captaincy not good for him.
What do you think Davis, Johnson and Fox are doing? (I could be unkind and joke)
The fact is the A50 process is happening and the platform Leave campaigned on has crumbled as have your arguments. You see it is not about Remainer ideas anymore. What is being tested is the platform Leave advocated by politicians who now have collective responsibility for the Brexit process. None of the propositions that Leave articulated have come to pass in the negotiations. Like a bad sportsman you are blaming the tools/ equipment for the failure of the platform you support.
I am disturbed that you think an economic Dunkirk is a good thing. Leave won on the unusual platform of not being a continuation of the status quo. However, the Leave platform was rooted in falsehood and insane optimism. Sometimes Richard it is better to look at things and realise you might be wrong before the whole edifice crumbles around you. I doubt millions of families who might find their incomes further reduced will find any comfort in your democratic purism.
I've stopped donating to them.
My thanks to the PB lefties for making me a bit richer.
Incidentally, the line that the assessments were not impact assessments doesn't stand up to scrutiny. The quote found by Umunna clearly implies that they were looking at impact, since the next sentence says they'll ALSO be looking at other kinds of impact. The least evil line is probably to say sorry, the statement may have given the wrong impression, and what is actually happening is ongoing monioring, blah blah.
But the idea that the Cabinet has embarked on all this without discussing how they'd like it to end is beyond parody: One wouldn't design a bus shelter that way, let alone the country's future..
BoJo seems to think that what the Tory party needs is a few Mid East wars to take our minds off things. Anyone spotting the flaw in the plan?
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/938542629243052040
Good plan. We should all be stocking up food stores, what with the four horseman on the way...
@TGOHF - I thought labour getting tough on this kind of thing,only the other day they were telling us.
Emily Thornberry defends Israel and says anti-Semites 'will be drummed out' of the Labour party
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/foreign-affairs/news/91036/emily-thornberry-defends-israel-and-says-anti-semites-will-be
I believe they have had their hands completely tied by May. It is she who has laid down all the ground rules for this process from the UK side and it is she who has decided what is, and is not, acceptable to the public. That is not to defend the other ministers but the idea that they have had any real say in this process seems laughable to me.
These people are totally and utterly insane! And this idiot is in control of the nations finances?
#ToriesOut
Something like this would have potential and it would allow Ben Stokes to make use of his talents:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwTK7JlTP3U
There is much in that but it's a needlessly provocative move from the US. Tel Aviv is well established as the governmental base and the move to Jerusalem is purely symbollic, which is of course the problem.
I don't have a great deal of sympathy with either side but that's no reason to needlessly stir what's already a volatile situation.
http://www.montgomeryadvertiser.com/story/news/politics/southunionstreet/2017/12/06/ahead-senate-election-alabama-circuit-clerks-say-absentee-ballot-applications-up/928665001/