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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So far so good. We might just get to the end of the week witho

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  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,650
    rkrkrk said:

    "Roads are made, streets are made, services are improved, electric light turns night into day, water is brought from reservoirs a hundred miles off in the mountains – and all the while the landlord sits still.

    Every one of those improvements is effected by the labour and cost of other people and the taxpayers. To not one of those improvements does the land monopolist, as a land monopolist, contribute, and yet by every one of them the value of his land is enhanced."

    Winston Churchill - 1909.

    Careful, we'll have @MaxPB back on here giving you a like.
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    Scott_P said:

    @AidanKerrTweets: Oh my twitter.com/ajjenkins/status/931170940674854912

    You would have thought Putin could have organized some of his bots to tweet in to not have to resort to the oldest trick in the phone-in boot.
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    Scott_P said:

    @AidanKerrTweets: Oh my twitter.com/ajjenkins/status/931170940674854912

    You would have thought Putin could have organized some of his bots to tweet in to not have to resort to the oldest trick in the phone-in boot.
    Well....

    https://twitter.com/HTScotPol/status/931129230167076864
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,163

    Scott_P said:

    RobD said:

    cut off mid sentence?

    @bbclaurak: Rumours doing the rounds that govt looking for a way of ditching the date amendment that well, doesn’t look like they are ditching the date amendment - nothing firm yet
    Hurrah for the mutineers.
    Spectacular own goal if true.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Feurle7qkfQ
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    Scott_P said:

    @AidanKerrTweets: Oh my twitter.com/ajjenkins/status/931170940674854912

    You would have thought Putin could have organized some of his bots to tweet in to not have to resort to the oldest trick in the phone-in boot.
    Well....

    twitter.com/HTScotPol/status/931129230167076864
    Confused....is that a known bot account? Or another employee of RT? or a person who never actually tweeted this?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,007
    edited November 2017
    Will the country listen to the CEO of Goldman Sachs

    @lloydblankfein: Here in UK, lots of hand-wringing from CEOs over #Brexit. Better sense of the tough and risky road ahead. Reluctant to say, but many wish for a confirming vote on a decision so monumental and irreversible. So much at stake, why not make sure consensus still there?
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,462
    Lloyd Blankfein now calling for a second referendum:
    https://twitter.com/lloydblankfein/status/931170132616974336
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 19,109
    edited November 2017
    rkrkrk said:

    "Roads are made, streets are made, services are improved, electric light turns night into day, water is brought from reservoirs a hundred miles off in the mountains – and all the while the landlord sits still.

    Every one of those improvements is effected by the labour and cost of other people and the taxpayers. To not one of those improvements does the land monopolist, as a land monopolist, contribute, and yet by every one of them the value of his land is enhanced."

    Winston Churchill - 1909.

    An excellent set of reasons for taxing the unearned gains made on the value of their owner-occupied houses by people who do not do any of the things identified by Mr Churchill !
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,230

    Alex Salmond has defended his new show on Russia Today by noting that Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell and Diane Abbott have all appeared on and supported the Putin propaganda channel. Remember when Jezza told his followers to “try Russia Today”…

    https://order-order.com/2017/11/16/salmond-russia-today-good-enough-corbyn-good-enough/

    Because there’s no difference between appearing as a contributor on a show occasionally, and having a regular slot produced by your own company taking bagfuls of roubles?
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    Scott_P said:

    @AidanKerrTweets: Oh my twitter.com/ajjenkins/status/931170940674854912

    You would have thought Putin could have organized some of his bots to tweet in to not have to resort to the oldest trick in the phone-in boot.
    Well....

    twitter.com/HTScotPol/status/931129230167076864
    Confused....is that a known bot account? Or another employee of RT? or a person who never actually tweeted this?
    The latter I think, it is all very confusing.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,061

    Lloyd Blankfein now calling for a second referendum:
    https://twitter.com/lloydblankfein/status/931170132616974336

    The losers always want another go ;)
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    RobD said:

    Lloyd Blankfein now calling for a second referendum:
    https://twitter.com/lloydblankfein/status/931170132616974336

    The losers always want another go ;)
    If Lloyd Blankfein is the definition of a loser, what is the definition of a winner?
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    RobD said:

    Lloyd Blankfein now calling for a second referendum:
    https://twitter.com/lloydblankfein/status/931170132616974336

    The losers always want another go ;)
    Technically it will be the third referendum.

    Side with the highest overall average across the three wins.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,650
    edited November 2017

    RobD said:

    Lloyd Blankfein now calling for a second referendum:
    https://twitter.com/lloydblankfein/status/931170132616974336

    The losers always want another go ;)
    If Lloyd Blankfein is the definition of a loser, what is the definition of a winner?
    haha exactly.

    *man walks into Lloyd Blankfein's bedroom: Lloyd, where did it all go wrong..?*
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,061

    RobD said:

    Lloyd Blankfein now calling for a second referendum:
    https://twitter.com/lloydblankfein/status/931170132616974336

    The losers always want another go ;)
    If Lloyd Blankfein is the definition of a loser, what is the definition of a winner?
    Not that I said that... :p
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    rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    dixiedean said:

    Here's an example of the chaos theory in action.

    Stephen Crabb's dick pics and general inability to keep the snake inside the pet store is behind the Universal Credit disaster and damage for the Tories.

    Because of his background, being raised by a working single mother who relied on benefits, he knew what universal credit recipients would be going through, so he was ironing out the kinks in universal credit that were bequeathed to him by IDS and Osborne.

    Then well his sexting stuff came out and he had to leave the cabinet.

    Indeed. If anyone ought to be able to spot a kink it would be Crabb.
    His efforts to get the railway electrified to Swansea and from Cardiff up the South Wales valleys also seem to have failed. Wikipedia says:

    'He has said his proudest moment in the post was brokering a deal between the Treasury and the devolved Welsh government to extend the electrification of the Great Western Main Line to Swansea and The Valleys.[8]'

    It's since been cancelled. Part of the de-railing of his career, I suppose.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,267

    RobD said:

    Lloyd Blankfein now calling for a second referendum:
    https://twitter.com/lloydblankfein/status/931170132616974336

    The losers always want another go ;)
    Technically it will be the third referendum.

    Side with the highest overall average across the three wins.
    Yes, but the result of the 1975 referendum was implemented. We need to implement the result of the 2016 referendum. Then you can have another go if you win a general election.
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    RobD said:

    Lloyd Blankfein now calling for a second referendum:
    https://twitter.com/lloydblankfein/status/931170132616974336

    The losers always want another go ;)
    Technically it will be the third referendum.

    Side with the highest overall average across the three wins.
    Democracy in action. Who could possibly argue with that?
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Confused....is that a known bot account? Or another employee of RT? or a person who never actually tweeted this?

    The Tweet was read out on air, 4 hours before it was Tweeted
  • Options
    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    Lloyd Blankfein now calling for a second referendum:
    https://twitter.com/lloydblankfein/status/931170132616974336

    The losers always want another go ;)
    If Lloyd Blankfein is the definition of a loser, what is the definition of a winner?
    haha exactly.

    *man walks into Lloyd Blankfein's bedroom: Lloyd, where did it all go wrong..?*
    I still maintain Lloyd Blankfein is a name dreamt up by Ian Fleming.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,061
    edited November 2017
    Anorak said:

    RobD said:

    Lloyd Blankfein now calling for a second referendum:
    https://twitter.com/lloydblankfein/status/931170132616974336

    The losers always want another go ;)
    Technically it will be the third referendum.

    Side with the highest overall average across the three wins.
    Democracy in action. Who could possibly argue with that?
    TSE has a thing for multi-round voting systems. :D
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,668
    marke09 said:

    DavidL said:

    The 6 week wait is appalling and needs to go but even 4 weeks is going to be seriously harsh for people who will end up either living on charity or stealing to eat because of the government's incompetence and inability to process things within an acceptable period of time. How long does an insurance company take to sell car insurance or a bank to rip you off with a dodgy mortgage with an interesting insurance product on the side?

    Some money to take the rough edges on this is going to need to be found in the budget.

    I went with a friend to a Job Centre today and there were leaflets about UC - it said if you cannot wait you can have an advanced payment which is half of the UC they will get repayable over 6 months for new claimants and 12 months for ths moving from another benefit. That advanced payment can be paid out same day
    Why is the entitlement not backdated to the date of the application? If that is the case then any advance could simply be set off the entitlement.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,725
    edited November 2017
    Scott_P said:

    Confused....is that a known bot account? Or another employee of RT? or a person who never actually tweeted this?

    The Tweet was read out on air, 4 hours before it was Tweeted
    Well that is quite something....they read his mind....
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,061
    edited November 2017
    Snip
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    RobD said:

    stodge said:

    Even when the financial house of cards collapsed in 2008 Britain and Germany still looked attractive propositions for those from eastern Europe. Thus can be explained the 20% depopulation of Lithuania (116,000 in the UK) and the near 400,000 (allegedly) Romanians and Bulgarians.

    The inflection point in the Baltic states' population figures was the collapse of the USSR, not EU membership.

    image
    Russia's has started to rise again though.
    They have implemented huge pro-birth rate policies. 18 months paid maternity leave for example.
  • Options
    tlg86 said:

    RobD said:

    Lloyd Blankfein now calling for a second referendum:
    https://twitter.com/lloydblankfein/status/931170132616974336

    The losers always want another go ;)
    Technically it will be the third referendum.

    Side with the highest overall average across the three wins.
    Yes, but the result of the 1975 referendum was implemented. We need to implement the result of the 2016 referendum. Then you can have another go if you win a general election.
    It has been implemented, we've triggered Article 50.
  • Options
    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited November 2017

    Scott_P said:

    Confused....is that a known bot account? Or another employee of RT? or a person who never actually tweeted this?

    The Tweet was read out on air, 4 hours before it was Tweeted
    Well that is quite something....they read his mind....
    Tinfoil hats all round!
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=urglg3WimHA
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,725
    edited November 2017

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    Lloyd Blankfein now calling for a second referendum:
    https://twitter.com/lloydblankfein/status/931170132616974336

    The losers always want another go ;)
    If Lloyd Blankfein is the definition of a loser, what is the definition of a winner?
    haha exactly.

    *man walks into Lloyd Blankfein's bedroom: Lloyd, where did it all go wrong..?*
    I still maintain Lloyd Blankfein is a name dreamt up by Ian Fleming.
    I didn't realise until recently that Blofeld is based upon Henry Blofeld father, who was at Eton with Fleming.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,462
    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    stodge said:

    Even when the financial house of cards collapsed in 2008 Britain and Germany still looked attractive propositions for those from eastern Europe. Thus can be explained the 20% depopulation of Lithuania (116,000 in the UK) and the near 400,000 (allegedly) Romanians and Bulgarians.

    The inflection point in the Baltic states' population figures was the collapse of the USSR, not EU membership.

    image
    Russia's has started to rise again though.
    They have implemented huge pro-birth rate policies. 18 months paid maternity leave for example.
    They also instigated a humanitarian crisis on their doorstep which led to nearly 3 million Ukrainians moving to Russia.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 19,109
    edited November 2017
    DavidL said:

    The 6 week wait is appalling and needs to go but even 4 weeks is going to be seriously harsh for people who will end up either living on charity or stealing to eat because of the government's incompetence and inability to process things within an acceptable period of time. How long does an insurance company take to sell car insurance or a bank to rip you off with a dodgy mortgage with an interesting insurance product on the side?

    Some money to take the rough edges on this is going to need to be found in the budget.

    If Phil has his spreadsheet on, he'll know he can get double political bubble by doing more than taking the rough edges off.

    Reasons for Visiting Foodbanks:

    image

  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,007
    edited November 2017
    RobD said:

    Anorak said:

    RobD said:

    Lloyd Blankfein now calling for a second referendum:
    https://twitter.com/lloydblankfein/status/931170132616974336

    The losers always want another go ;)
    Technically it will be the third referendum.

    Side with the highest overall average across the three wins.
    Democracy in action. Who could possibly argue with that?
    TSE has a thing for multi-round voting systems. :D
    I reckon all this division and aggro would have been avoided if the EU Referendum had been conducted under AV.

    Here's your options

    a ) Remain as we are
    b ) Remain with Dave's deal
    c ) Leave the EU, replete with our membership of the single market and customs union
    d ) EEA option

    I did suggest it to Dave.
  • Options
    Three men have been found guilty of sexually assaulting a teenage girl in the first trial to come out of the National Crime Agency's investigation into historical abuse in Rotherham.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-42003948
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    Lloyd Blankfein now calling for a second referendum:
    https://twitter.com/lloydblankfein/status/931170132616974336

    Here in the USA lots of hand-wringing from UK Wall St Bankers over #independence1776 . Better sense of the tough and risky road ahead. Reluctant to say, but many wish for a confirming vote on a decision so monumental and irreversible. So much at stake, why not make sure consensus still there?

    Bonus ball - you'd get HM Queen as CEO not the Donald!
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,061
    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    stodge said:

    Even when the financial house of cards collapsed in 2008 Britain and Germany still looked attractive propositions for those from eastern Europe. Thus can be explained the 20% depopulation of Lithuania (116,000 in the UK) and the near 400,000 (allegedly) Romanians and Bulgarians.

    The inflection point in the Baltic states' population figures was the collapse of the USSR, not EU membership.

    image
    Russia's has started to rise again though.
    They have implemented huge pro-birth rate policies. 18 months paid maternity leave for example.
    The Baltic states have similarly generous policies.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,462

    RobD said:

    Anorak said:

    RobD said:

    Lloyd Blankfein now calling for a second referendum:
    https://twitter.com/lloydblankfein/status/931170132616974336

    The losers always want another go ;)
    Technically it will be the third referendum.

    Side with the highest overall average across the three wins.
    Democracy in action. Who could possibly argue with that?
    TSE has a thing for multi-round voting systems. :D
    I reckon all this division and aggro would have been avoided if the EU Referendum had been conducted under AV.

    Here's your options

    a ) Remain as we are
    b ) Remain with Dave's deal
    c ) Leave the EU, replete with our membership of the single market and customs union
    d ) EEA option

    I did suggest it to Dave.
    They'd probably have tried to game it by adding a fifth option of leaving and implementing full socialism which would somehow have managed to win.
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    Be interesting to see if anyone else calls for another referendum. Was 6.5 on Ladbrokes a few weeks ago, small fall to 6 the other day.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,061
    edited November 2017
    MattW said:

    DavidL said:

    The 6 week wait is appalling and needs to go but even 4 weeks is going to be seriously harsh for people who will end up either living on charity or stealing to eat because of the government's incompetence and inability to process things within an acceptable period of time. How long does an insurance company take to sell car insurance or a bank to rip you off with a dodgy mortgage with an interesting insurance product on the side?

    Some money to take the rough edges on this is going to need to be found in the budget.

    If Phil has his spreadsheet on, he'll know he can get double political bubble by doing more than taking the rough edges off.

    Reasons for Visiting Foodbanks:

    image

    What’s this a graph of?

    Edit: oh, you edited it. Why has unemployment completely fallen off the charts?
  • Options
    RobD said:

    MattW said:

    DavidL said:

    The 6 week wait is appalling and needs to go but even 4 weeks is going to be seriously harsh for people who will end up either living on charity or stealing to eat because of the government's incompetence and inability to process things within an acceptable period of time. How long does an insurance company take to sell car insurance or a bank to rip you off with a dodgy mortgage with an interesting insurance product on the side?

    Some money to take the rough edges on this is going to need to be found in the budget.

    If Phil has his spreadsheet on, he'll know he can get double political bubble by doing more than taking the rough edges off.

    Reasons for Visiting Foodbanks:

    image

    What’s this a graph of?

    Edit: oh, you edited it. Why has unemployment completely fallen off the charts?
    https://www.trusselltrust.org/news-and-blog/latest-stats/end-year-stats/
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2017
    Another idea is that there could have been a clause in the referendum bill saying that if the winning side got less than say 53% there would have to be another referendum two years later to confirm the decision.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,415

    dixiedean said:

    Here's an example of the chaos theory in action.

    Stephen Crabb's dick pics and general inability to keep the snake inside the pet store is behind the Universal Credit disaster and damage for the Tories.

    Because of his background, being raised by a working single mother who relied on benefits, he knew what universal credit recipients would be going through, so he was ironing out the kinks in universal credit that were bequeathed to him by IDS and Osborne.

    Then well his sexting stuff came out and he had to leave the cabinet.

    Indeed. If anyone ought to be able to spot a kink it would be Crabb.
    His efforts to get the railway electrified to Swansea and from Cardiff up the South Wales valleys also seem to have failed. Wikipedia says:

    'He has said his proudest moment in the post was brokering a deal between the Treasury and the devolved Welsh government to extend the electrification of the Great Western Main Line to Swansea and The Valleys.[8]'

    It's since been cancelled. Part of the de-railing of his career, I suppose.
    Can't really blame Crabb for Network Rail's utter failure with the GWML electrification.

    I'll resist the temptation to point out that it's the nationalised Network Rail that's failed, not the privatised companies. I don't want to trigger anyone ... ;)
  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    tlg86 said:

    RobD said:

    Lloyd Blankfein now calling for a second referendum:
    https://twitter.com/lloydblankfein/status/931170132616974336

    The losers always want another go ;)
    Technically it will be the third referendum.

    Side with the highest overall average across the three wins.
    Yes, but the result of the 1975 referendum was implemented. We need to implement the result of the 2016 referendum. Then you can have another go if you win a general election.
    It has been implemented, we've triggered Article 50.
    Well 40 to 50 years wait for another go,leave had to wait.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,668
    MattW said:

    DavidL said:

    The 6 week wait is appalling and needs to go but even 4 weeks is going to be seriously harsh for people who will end up either living on charity or stealing to eat because of the government's incompetence and inability to process things within an acceptable period of time. How long does an insurance company take to sell car insurance or a bank to rip you off with a dodgy mortgage with an interesting insurance product on the side?

    Some money to take the rough edges on this is going to need to be found in the budget.

    If Phil has his spreadsheet on, he'll know he can get double political bubble by doing more than taking the rough edges off.

    Reasons for Visiting Foodbanks:

    image

    The proportion for benefit delays is indeed shameful. UC was supposed strip away a lot of the accretions and historic anomalies and it does seem to be doing that. It is just very sad that the opportunity has not been taken to provide a service fit for purpose at the same time.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited November 2017
    DavidL said:

    The 6 week wait is appalling and needs to go but even 4 weeks is going to be seriously harsh for people who will end up either living on charity or stealing to eat because of the government's incompetence and inability to process things within an acceptable period of time. How long does an insurance company take to sell car insurance or a bank to rip you off with a dodgy mortgage with an interesting insurance product on the side?

    Some money to take the rough edges on this is going to need to be found in the budget.

    I can't believe it would cost very much to fix the six-week problem: in the context of the welfare bill as a whole, new claimants must be a fairly small proportion of the total, it's only a cash-flow timing issue, and as we've been told there's already an advance payment system anyway. Administering the advance payments can't be cheap, and it also sounds distressing for claimants to have to go through the extra hoops to ask for an advance.

    All in all, it looks a no-brainer to fix at least this part of the concerns people have raised about UC.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 19,109
    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    DavidL said:

    The 6 week wait is appalling and needs to go but even 4 weeks is going to be seriously harsh for people who will end up either living on charity or stealing to eat because of the government's incompetence and inability to process things within an acceptable period of time. How long does an insurance company take to sell car insurance or a bank to rip you off with a dodgy mortgage with an interesting insurance product on the side?

    Some money to take the rough edges on this is going to need to be found in the budget.

    If Phil has his spreadsheet on, he'll know he can get double political bubble by doing more than taking the rough edges off.

    Reasons for Visiting Foodbanks:

    image

    The proportion for benefit delays is indeed shameful. UC was supposed strip away a lot of the accretions and historic anomalies and it does seem to be doing that. It is just very sad that the opportunity has not been taken to provide a service fit for purpose at the same time.
    +100
  • Options
    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    stodge said:

    Even when the financial house of cards collapsed in 2008 Britain and Germany still looked attractive propositions for those from eastern Europe. Thus can be explained the 20% depopulation of Lithuania (116,000 in the UK) and the near 400,000 (allegedly) Romanians and Bulgarians.

    The inflection point in the Baltic states' population figures was the collapse of the USSR, not EU membership.

    image
    Russia's has started to rise again though.
    They have implemented huge pro-birth rate policies. 18 months paid maternity leave for example.
    They also instigated a humanitarian crisis on their doorstep which led to nearly 3 million Ukrainians moving to Russia.
    How?
  • Options

    tlg86 said:

    RobD said:

    Lloyd Blankfein now calling for a second referendum:
    https://twitter.com/lloydblankfein/status/931170132616974336

    The losers always want another go ;)
    Technically it will be the third referendum.

    Side with the highest overall average across the three wins.
    Yes, but the result of the 1975 referendum was implemented. We need to implement the result of the 2016 referendum. Then you can have another go if you win a general election.
    It has been implemented, we've triggered Article 50.
    Well 40 to 50 years wait for another go,leave had to wait.
    Parliament is sovereign, a future Parliament can do whatever it likes.

    Just like the 1975 result would have been overturned eight years later by a general election result.
  • Options

    DavidL said:

    The 6 week wait is appalling and needs to go but even 4 weeks is going to be seriously harsh for people who will end up either living on charity or stealing to eat because of the government's incompetence and inability to process things within an acceptable period of time. How long does an insurance company take to sell car insurance or a bank to rip you off with a dodgy mortgage with an interesting insurance product on the side?

    Some money to take the rough edges on this is going to need to be found in the budget.

    I can't believe it would cost very much to fix the six-week problem: in the context of the welfare bill as a whole, new claimants must be a fairly small proportion of the total, it's only a cash-flow timing issue, and as we've been told there's already an advance payment system anyway. Administering the advance payments can't be cheap, and it also sound distressing for claimants to have to go through the extra hoops to ask for an advance.

    All in all, it looks a no-brainer to fix at least this part of the concerns people have raised about UC.
    The issue isn't just for new claimants, existing claimants get the six week delay too.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,776

    RobD said:

    Lloyd Blankfein now calling for a second referendum:
    https://twitter.com/lloydblankfein/status/931170132616974336

    The losers always want another go ;)
    If Lloyd Blankfein is the definition of a loser, what is the definition of a winner?
    Someone who doesn't schill for the evil world eating octopuss?
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    DavidL said:

    The 6 week wait is appalling and needs to go but even 4 weeks is going to be seriously harsh for people who will end up either living on charity or stealing to eat because of the government's incompetence and inability to process things within an acceptable period of time. How long does an insurance company take to sell car insurance or a bank to rip you off with a dodgy mortgage with an interesting insurance product on the side?

    Some money to take the rough edges on this is going to need to be found in the budget.

    I can't believe it would cost very much to fix the six-week problem: in the context of the welfare bill as a whole, new claimants must be a fairly small proportion of the total, it's only a cash-flow timing issue, and as we've been told there's already an advance payment system anyway. Administering the advance payments can't be cheap, and it also sound distressing for claimants to have to go through the extra hoops to ask for an advance.

    All in all, it looks a no-brainer to fix at least this part of the concerns people have raised about UC.
    The issue isn't just for new claimants, existing claimants get the six week delay too.
    On switch-over, yes. But it's being rolled out gradually, isn't?

    In any case, there's no justification for a sudden gap in payments for existing claimants.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,007
    edited November 2017

    DavidL said:

    The 6 week wait is appalling and needs to go but even 4 weeks is going to be seriously harsh for people who will end up either living on charity or stealing to eat because of the government's incompetence and inability to process things within an acceptable period of time. How long does an insurance company take to sell car insurance or a bank to rip you off with a dodgy mortgage with an interesting insurance product on the side?

    Some money to take the rough edges on this is going to need to be found in the budget.

    I can't believe it would cost very much to fix the six-week problem: in the context of the welfare bill as a whole, new claimants must be a fairly small proportion of the total, it's only a cash-flow timing issue, and as we've been told there's already an advance payment system anyway. Administering the advance payments can't be cheap, and it also sound distressing for claimants to have to go through the extra hoops to ask for an advance.

    All in all, it looks a no-brainer to fix at least this part of the concerns people have raised about UC.
    The issue isn't just for new claimants, existing claimants get the six week delay too.
    On switch-over, yes. But it's being rolled out gradually, isn't?

    In any case, there's no justification for a sudden gap in payments for existing claimants.
    Rolled out gradually across the country.

    The other clusterfuck is the housing benefit payment, that's the primary concern my friend at a JCP has been flagging up for months.

    Some landlords are taking action.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/nov/15/landlord-threatens-mass-evictions-ahead-of-universal-credit-rollout

    I said several months ago on here univeral credit could do to the Tories what the poll tax did, I'm not resiling from that view.

    Despite what people post on here, those affected by UC include those in work, and have voted Tory in the past.
  • Options
    Is it April 1st?

    Tommy Robinson is made a 'goodwill ambassador' at arts trust to 'oversee £100,000 of grants'
  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    tlg86 said:

    RobD said:

    Lloyd Blankfein now calling for a second referendum:
    https://twitter.com/lloydblankfein/status/931170132616974336

    The losers always want another go ;)
    Technically it will be the third referendum.

    Side with the highest overall average across the three wins.
    Yes, but the result of the 1975 referendum was implemented. We need to implement the result of the 2016 referendum. Then you can have another go if you win a general election.
    It has been implemented, we've triggered Article 50.
    Well 40 to 50 years wait for another go,leave had to wait.
    Parliament is sovereign, a future Parliament can do whatever it likes.

    Just like the 1975 result would have been overturned eight years later by a general election result.
    Same with the 2017 remain lib dems at the GE,worked out well.
  • Options

    tlg86 said:

    RobD said:

    Lloyd Blankfein now calling for a second referendum:
    https://twitter.com/lloydblankfein/status/931170132616974336

    The losers always want another go ;)
    Technically it will be the third referendum.

    Side with the highest overall average across the three wins.
    Yes, but the result of the 1975 referendum was implemented. We need to implement the result of the 2016 referendum. Then you can have another go if you win a general election.
    It has been implemented, we've triggered Article 50.
    Well 40 to 50 years wait for another go,leave had to wait.
    Parliament is sovereign, a future Parliament can do whatever it likes.

    Just like the 1975 result would have been overturned eight years later by a general election result.
    Same with the 2017 remain lib dems at the GE,worked out well.
    Either you believe in Parliamentary sovereignty, or you don't.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,650

    RobD said:

    Lloyd Blankfein now calling for a second referendum:
    https://twitter.com/lloydblankfein/status/931170132616974336

    The losers always want another go ;)
    If Lloyd Blankfein is the definition of a loser, what is the definition of a winner?
    Someone who doesn't schill for the evil world eating octopuss?
    squid
  • Options
    An octopus is no match for the might of the enormo-haddock.
  • Options
    Japanese transport crisis prompts immediate apology for failure:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-42009839
  • Options
    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,135

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    Lloyd Blankfein now calling for a second referendum:
    https://twitter.com/lloydblankfein/status/931170132616974336

    The losers always want another go ;)
    If Lloyd Blankfein is the definition of a loser, what is the definition of a winner?
    haha exactly.

    *man walks into Lloyd Blankfein's bedroom: Lloyd, where did it all go wrong..?*
    I still maintain Lloyd Blankfein is a name dreamt up by Ian Fleming.
    I didn't realise until recently that Blofeld is based upon Henry Blofeld father, who was at Eton with Fleming.
    And Goldfinger is based on the real life architect who designed Trellick Tower, amongst others. When (the real life) Goldfinger threatened to sue, Fleming told him he would change the name in his book to Goldprick...

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2005/jun/03/film.hayfestival2005

  • Options
    Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,825

    tlg86 said:

    RobD said:

    Lloyd Blankfein now calling for a second referendum:
    https://twitter.com/lloydblankfein/status/931170132616974336

    The losers always want another go ;)
    Technically it will be the third referendum.

    Side with the highest overall average across the three wins.
    Yes, but the result of the 1975 referendum was implemented. We need to implement the result of the 2016 referendum. Then you can have another go if you win a general election.
    It has been implemented, we've triggered Article 50.
    Well 40 to 50 years wait for another go,leave had to wait.
    Parliament is sovereign, a future Parliament can do whatever it likes.

    Just like the 1975 result would have been overturned eight years later by a general election result.
    Nah, we should simply follow the precedent:
    When we went in, we followed our pre-existing constitutional arrangements to go in (which, in 1973, did not involve referendums), and then, a couple of years later when we had a solid idea of what it really involved, we sought a confirmatory referendum in 1975 that either endorsed the decision or reverted to the earlier status quo.
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,947



    Despite what people post on here, those affected by UC include those in work, and have voted Tory in the past.

    It is amazingly depressing both that someone would say that, and that they would think this is a good argument for going ahead anyway.

    But I remember you having exactly that discussion on here.
  • Options

    Nah, we should simply follow the precedent:
    When we went in, we followed our pre-existing constitutional arrangements to go in (which, in 1973, did not involve referendums), and then, a couple of years later when we had a solid idea of what it really involved, we sought a confirmatory referendum in 1975 that either endorsed the decision or reverted to the earlier status quo.

    "or reverted to the earlier status quo". That is precisely the problem, that's not available.
  • Options
    kyf_100 said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    Lloyd Blankfein now calling for a second referendum:
    https://twitter.com/lloydblankfein/status/931170132616974336

    The losers always want another go ;)
    If Lloyd Blankfein is the definition of a loser, what is the definition of a winner?
    haha exactly.

    *man walks into Lloyd Blankfein's bedroom: Lloyd, where did it all go wrong..?*
    I still maintain Lloyd Blankfein is a name dreamt up by Ian Fleming.
    I didn't realise until recently that Blofeld is based upon Henry Blofeld father, who was at Eton with Fleming.
    And Goldfinger is based on the real life architect who designed Trellick Tower, amongst others. When (the real life) Goldfinger threatened to sue, Fleming told him he would change the name in his book to Goldprick...

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2005/jun/03/film.hayfestival2005

    Thanks for that, I did not know that, and I'm consider myself a Bond fan.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,415
    edited November 2017
    Who'd have thunk it?

    Tax disc: Car tax evasion triples after paper version scrapped

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42009111

    Edit: if a car is untaxed, does it also mean it is automatically uninsured? I.e. is any insurance on a car void if it is untaxed? Can you even insure an untaxed car?
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,230

    DavidL said:

    The 6 week wait is appalling and needs to go but even 4 weeks is going to be seriously harsh for people who will end up either living on charity or stealing to eat because of the government's incompetence and inability to process things within an acceptable period of time. How long does an insurance company take to sell car insurance or a bank to rip you off with a dodgy mortgage with an interesting insurance product on the side?

    Some money to take the rough edges on this is going to need to be found in the budget.

    I can't believe it would cost very much to fix the six-week problem: in the context of the welfare bill as a whole, new claimants must be a fairly small proportion of the total, it's only a cash-flow timing issue, and as we've been told there's already an advance payment system anyway. Administering the advance payments can't be cheap, and it also sound distressing for claimants to have to go through the extra hoops to ask for an advance.

    All in all, it looks a no-brainer to fix at least this part of the concerns people have raised about UC.
    The issue isn't just for new claimants, existing claimants get the six week delay too.
    So why did TCO put the six week delay into the new system?
  • Options
    If you subscribe to the Popbitch email.

    Wow, just wow.
  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    tlg86 said:

    RobD said:

    Lloyd Blankfein now calling for a second referendum:
    https://twitter.com/lloydblankfein/status/931170132616974336

    The losers always want another go ;)
    Technically it will be the third referendum.

    Side with the highest overall average across the three wins.
    Yes, but the result of the 1975 referendum was implemented. We need to implement the result of the 2016 referendum. Then you can have another go if you win a general election.
    It has been implemented, we've triggered Article 50.
    Well 40 to 50 years wait for another go,leave had to wait.
    Parliament is sovereign, a future Parliament can do whatever it likes.

    Just like the 1975 result would have been overturned eight years later by a general election result.
    Same with the 2017 remain lib dems at the GE,worked out well.
    Either you believe in Parliamentary sovereignty, or you don't.
    Which political party will offer a second referendum - labour or Tory ? For parliamentary sovereignty.
  • Options

    tlg86 said:

    RobD said:

    Lloyd Blankfein now calling for a second referendum:
    https://twitter.com/lloydblankfein/status/931170132616974336

    The losers always want another go ;)
    Technically it will be the third referendum.

    Side with the highest overall average across the three wins.
    Yes, but the result of the 1975 referendum was implemented. We need to implement the result of the 2016 referendum. Then you can have another go if you win a general election.
    It has been implemented, we've triggered Article 50.
    Well 40 to 50 years wait for another go,leave had to wait.
    Parliament is sovereign, a future Parliament can do whatever it likes.

    Just like the 1975 result would have been overturned eight years later by a general election result.
    Same with the 2017 remain lib dems at the GE,worked out well.
    Either you believe in Parliamentary sovereignty, or you don't.
    Which political party will offer a second referendum - labour or Tory ? For parliamentary sovereignty.
    Third referendum.

    I can see either of them proposing it if Brexit turns into an economic disaster.
  • Options

    If you subscribe to the Popbitch email.

    Wow, just wow.

    For some inexplicable reason I seem to have overlooked subscribing to that particular source. Anything I should know?
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,982



    Parliament is sovereign, a future Parliament can do whatever it likes.

    Just like the 1975 result would have been overturned eight years later by a general election result.

    It has surprised me how much the results of other referenda have been respected by the "losing" side.

    The Conservatives have never sought to abolish the Scottish Parliament or the Welsh Assembly or abolish the Mayor of London - yes, a Conservative has held the post but it's a very hard one for the party to win and getting harder arguably.

  • Options
    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,135
    MattW said:

    FPT:

    kyf_100 said:



    No, they won't sell, because they would be hit by CGT tax when they downsize and then hit again by IHT potentially.

    Why would anyone sell under those circumstances?

    I'm in my mid-thirties and, having bought four and bit years ago, am looking to move on soon. In those years I've saved money intended to put towards my next place.

    However if there was CGT on my main residence, I would be enormously incentivised instead to use that money saved as a deposit on a second place instead, renting out my first one, becoming a hated BTL landlord instead of freeing up a much needed starter home.
    I'm not really convinced by that. The numbers are relatively small. It depends where your starter house is and the size your capital gain.

    Picking one out of the air, on a modern 3 bed semi in Milton Keynes at 275k now (5 year price rise = 25%), you would pay perhaps 8.5k in CGT on a price increase of under 50k. Just your extra 3% Stamp Duty alone to turn it into a BTL would be as much.

    And that is without all the other associated costs, and that the financial and regulatory environment is tilted against single-property landlords compared to 5 years ago.

    And if there has been a similar change in house prices at the other end, then then there may not be that much difference.

    ...

    I think that there may be short term turbulence, but it would find a new norm - with a less distorted market.

    However, as Sean Fear said, the politics would be interesting. Richer people do not like losing their lollipops.
    The CGT on my London place would be at least 40k if not more. I know London isn't the be all and end all of the world, but it is certainly where the housing shortage is felt most acutely. 40k is a heck of an incentive not to sell.

    I used myself as an example to show how this policy could potentially affect homeowners across the board. But the thing to remember is the longer you hold on to a place, the more it appreciates in value (averaged out over 25 years, this is certainly the case). So the longer you own a place the bigger that CGT bill becomes.

    The housing market will freeze up as people simply don't want to downsize or sell up any more, particularly if they've owned their place for a while.

    The unintended consequences of restricted supply could be that prices actually go up.
  • Options
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    The 6 week wait is appalling and needs to go but even 4 weeks is going to be seriously harsh for people who will end up either living on charity or stealing to eat because of the government's incompetence and inability to process things within an acceptable period of time. How long does an insurance company take to sell car insurance or a bank to rip you off with a dodgy mortgage with an interesting insurance product on the side?

    Some money to take the rough edges on this is going to need to be found in the budget.

    I can't believe it would cost very much to fix the six-week problem: in the context of the welfare bill as a whole, new claimants must be a fairly small proportion of the total, it's only a cash-flow timing issue, and as we've been told there's already an advance payment system anyway. Administering the advance payments can't be cheap, and it also sound distressing for claimants to have to go through the extra hoops to ask for an advance.

    All in all, it looks a no-brainer to fix at least this part of the concerns people have raised about UC.
    The issue isn't just for new claimants, existing claimants get the six week delay too.
    So why did TCO put the six week delay into the new system?
    Wait for his autobiography, publicly you've only heard of one side of the story.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,007
    edited November 2017

    If you subscribe to the Popbitch email.

    Wow, just wow.

    For some inexplicable reason I seem to have overlooked subscribing to that particular source. Anything I should know?
    You're better off not knowing, it is to do with politics, but not something that should be discussed on a respectable, family friendly website like politicalbetting.com
  • Options

    If you subscribe to the Popbitch email.

    Wow, just wow.

    Osborne being hung out of a window by his ankles until he squeals "I'm a c@@t?
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,007
    edited November 2017
    stodge said:



    Parliament is sovereign, a future Parliament can do whatever it likes.

    Just like the 1975 result would have been overturned eight years later by a general election result.

    It has surprised me how much the results of other referenda have been respected by the "losing" side.

    The Conservatives have never sought to abolish the Scottish Parliament or the Welsh Assembly or abolish the Mayor of London - yes, a Conservative has held the post but it's a very hard one for the party to win and getting harder arguably.

    That's one thing I've liked about politics about this country, when we have a new government, they don't seek to tear down the achievements of their predecessors, they build upon them.

    Blair didn't undo any of the major Thatcherite reforms such as privatisation, Cameron built upon things like the minimum wage rather than there it down.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,776

    stodge said:



    Parliament is sovereign, a future Parliament can do whatever it likes.

    Just like the 1975 result would have been overturned eight years later by a general election result.

    It has surprised me how much the results of other referenda have been respected by the "losing" side.

    The Conservatives have never sought to abolish the Scottish Parliament or the Welsh Assembly or abolish the Mayor of London - yes, a Conservative has held the post but it's a very hard one for the party to win and getting harder arguably.

    That's one thing I've liked about politics about this country, when we have a new government, they don't seek to tear down the achievements of their predecessors, they build upon them.

    Blair didn't undo any of the major Thatcherite reforms such as privatisation, Cameron built upon things like the minimum wage rather than there it down.
    Unless you feel such a policy is going the wrong way, in which case successive governments are just digging holes deeper.

  • Options

    If you subscribe to the Popbitch email.

    Wow, just wow.

    Osborne being hung out of a window by his ankles until he squeals "I'm a c@@t?
    I believe that's what happened to him at Oxford, except replace 'c@@t' with 'oik'
  • Options

    If you subscribe to the Popbitch email.

    Wow, just wow.

    Osborne being hung out of a window by his ankles until he squeals "I'm a c@@t?
    I believe that's what happened to him at Oxford, except replace 'c@@t' with 'oik'
    I read that quote on Popbitch just now and it used the C word. I can imagine it happening.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,725
    edited November 2017

    If you subscribe to the Popbitch email.

    Wow, just wow.

    I presume it isn't this one? As nothing in there to make one go wow wow wow..

    http://popbitch.com/latest-email/
  • Options
    rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038

    dixiedean said:

    Here's an example of the chaos theory in action.

    Stephen Crabb's dick pics and general inability to keep the snake inside the pet store is behind the Universal Credit disaster and damage for the Tories.

    Because of his background, being raised by a working single mother who relied on benefits, he knew what universal credit recipients would be going through, so he was ironing out the kinks in universal credit that were bequeathed to him by IDS and Osborne.

    Then well his sexting stuff came out and he had to leave the cabinet.

    Indeed. If anyone ought to be able to spot a kink it would be Crabb.
    His efforts to get the railway electrified to Swansea and from Cardiff up the South Wales valleys also seem to have failed. Wikipedia says:

    'He has said his proudest moment in the post was brokering a deal between the Treasury and the devolved Welsh government to extend the electrification of the Great Western Main Line to Swansea and The Valleys.[8]'

    It's since been cancelled. Part of the de-railing of his career, I suppose.
    Can't really blame Crabb for Network Rail's utter failure with the GWML electrification.

    I'll resist the temptation to point out that it's the nationalised Network Rail that's failed, not the privatised companies. I don't want to trigger anyone ... ;)
    Both sides should read several years of the column Signal Failures, by Dr B Ching in Private Eye. Check the figures he quotes, contact their MP if they wish, let MPs make their own minds up. Then let parliament have a free vote. I won't suggest having a referendum ...
  • Options

    If you subscribe to the Popbitch email.

    Wow, just wow.

    I presume it isn't this one? As nothing in there to make one go wow wow wow..

    http://popbitch.com/latest-email/
    That's last week's edition.
  • Options

    If you subscribe to the Popbitch email.

    Wow, just wow.

    I presume it isn't this one? As nothing in there to make one go wow wow wow..

    http://popbitch.com/latest-email/
    That's last week's edition.
    I shall await this week then... :-)
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,119
    edited November 2017

    Will the country listen to the CEO of Goldman Sachs

    @lloydblankfein: Here in UK, lots of hand-wringing from CEOs over #Brexit. Better sense of the tough and risky road ahead. Reluctant to say, but many wish for a confirming vote on a decision so monumental and irreversible. So much at stake, why not make sure consensus still there?

    A company inextricably tied up with all the dubious dealings surrounding Euro membership. They are so far inside the EU's pocket they are hugging their testicles.
  • Options
    HHemmeligHHemmelig Posts: 617
    edited November 2017
    stodge said:



    Parliament is sovereign, a future Parliament can do whatever it likes.

    Just like the 1975 result would have been overturned eight years later by a general election result.

    It has surprised me how much the results of other referenda have been respected by the "losing" side.

    The Conservatives have never sought to abolish the Scottish Parliament or the Welsh Assembly or abolish the Mayor of London - yes, a Conservative has held the post but it's a very hard one for the party to win and getting harder arguably.

    A rare lapse of knowledge on your part there Stodge. Creating an elected Mayor of London was Michael Heseltine's brainchild and was in the Conservatives' 1997 manifesto. Why would they seek to abolish their own idea?
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,725
    edited November 2017

    Oh my.

    twitter.com/BuzzFeedNews/status/931194261847941120

    Where there is another hero of the American left in the big do do...
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,934
    Lady Bracknall.
  • Options
    TomsToms Posts: 2,478

    Toms said:

    Toms said:

    Just got my oldie winter fuel allowance which will go straight into my Betfair account. Wouldn't it be a smart idea if the transfer could go direct?

    I did a walk from Bedford yesterday. Anyone who lives in or near that dump deserves state compensation. ;)

    (I'm semi-serious. The walk from the bus station to main station is dreary in the extreme, yet that is the face many will see of the place.)
    The great thing about Bedford is that it leaves you alone to get on with stuff, unlike Cambridge where you are impeded by tourists at every turn under lowering grim skies.
    That sounds about right. ;)

    I have a vague rule, however: most visitors to a town or city come in via the car parks, train or bus. The areas around the bus and train stations, and the main car parks, should therefore be at least inviting. The walk between Bedford's train and bus stations are just awful, considering many people may be interchanging. DIsmal and grey.

    There was one relatively nice area, around the new bridge and cinema complex - and even that was spoilt by a concrete tower looming above a stone bridge.

    The same can be said for Cambridge to a certain extent, although I'd argue that the long walk between bus and train stations is much more interesting, and there's also a shuttle bus between the two.
    Yep. I am sure you know all about the Roman roads and paths from Biggleswade (I think) or Sandy heading north to Godmanchester.
    Done 'em. Got told off by a golfer on one once.

    Yesterday I walked the Ouse Valley Way between Bedford and St Neots. Not a good walk, as my head wasn't really in it. (and yes, I meant my head, not my body).
    I've done em too a few times with variations---on a freezing Winter day once with icicles on my mustache. I think that was the day I encountered a poacher. We hit it off.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,415

    dixiedean said:

    Here's an example of the chaos theory in action.

    Stephen Crabb's dick pics and general inability to keep the snake inside the pet store is behind the Universal Credit disaster and damage for the Tories.

    Because of his background, being raised by a working single mother who relied on benefits, he knew what universal credit recipients would be going through, so he was ironing out the kinks in universal credit that were bequeathed to him by IDS and Osborne.

    Then well his sexting stuff came out and he had to leave the cabinet.

    Indeed. If anyone ought to be able to spot a kink it would be Crabb.
    His efforts to get the railway electrified to Swansea and from Cardiff up the South Wales valleys also seem to have failed. Wikipedia says:

    'He has said his proudest moment in the post was brokering a deal between the Treasury and the devolved Welsh government to extend the electrification of the Great Western Main Line to Swansea and The Valleys.[8]'

    It's since been cancelled. Part of the de-railing of his career, I suppose.
    Can't really blame Crabb for Network Rail's utter failure with the GWML electrification.

    I'll resist the temptation to point out that it's the nationalised Network Rail that's failed, not the privatised companies. I don't want to trigger anyone ... ;)
    Both sides should read several years of the column Signal Failures, by Dr B Ching in Private Eye. Check the figures he quotes, contact their MP if they wish, let MPs make their own minds up. Then let parliament have a free vote. I won't suggest having a referendum ...
    I like Private Eye, but Dr B Ching has a certain anti-privatisation bias that (s)he rather lets intrude on the point being made.
  • Options

    Who'd have thunk it?

    Tax disc: Car tax evasion triples after paper version scrapped

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42009111

    Edit: if a car is untaxed, does it also mean it is automatically uninsured? I.e. is any insurance on a car void if it is untaxed? Can you even insure an untaxed car?

    Having no tax does not automatically invalidate your insurance. But it does provide an avenue for an insurer to try and refuse payout in case of a claim on the basis you should not have been driving the car in the first place if it wasn't taxed.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,007
    edited November 2017
    Katie Hopkins has weighed in on the Roy Moore allegations.

    Spot the difference.


    https://twitter.com/KTHopkins/status/930926399392755713
    https://twitter.com/KTHopkins/status/750214461735174145
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    stodge said:



    Parliament is sovereign, a future Parliament can do whatever it likes.

    Just like the 1975 result would have been overturned eight years later by a general election result.

    It has surprised me how much the results of other referenda have been respected by the "losing" side.

    Will the Brexit referendum join that list in time or will remainerism live on into the 2020s ?
  • Options
    HHemmeligHHemmelig Posts: 617
    edited November 2017
    kyf_100 said:

    MattW said:

    FPT:

    kyf_100 said:



    No, they won't sell, because they would be hit by CGT tax when they downsize and then hit again by IHT potentially.

    Why would anyone sell under those circumstances?

    I'm not really convinced by that. The numbers are relatively small. It depends where your starter house is and the size your capital gain.

    Picking one out of the air, on a modern 3 bed semi in Milton Keynes at 275k now (5 year price rise = 25%), you would pay perhaps 8.5k in CGT on a price increase of under 50k. Just your extra 3% Stamp Duty alone to turn it into a BTL would be as much.

    And that is without all the other associated costs, and that the financial and regulatory environment is tilted against single-property landlords compared to 5 years ago.

    And if there has been a similar change in house prices at the other end, then then there may not be that much difference.

    ...

    I think that there may be short term turbulence, but it would find a new norm - with a less distorted market.

    However, as Sean Fear said, the politics would be interesting. Richer people do not like losing their lollipops.
    The CGT on my London place would be at least 40k if not more. I know London isn't the be all and end all of the world, but it is certainly where the housing shortage is felt most acutely. 40k is a heck of an incentive not to sell.

    I used myself as an example to show how this policy could potentially affect homeowners across the board. But the thing to remember is the longer you hold on to a place, the more it appreciates in value (averaged out over 25 years, this is certainly the case). So the longer you own a place the bigger that CGT bill becomes.

    The housing market will freeze up as people simply don't want to downsize or sell up any more, particularly if they've owned their place for a while.

    The unintended consequences of restricted supply could be that prices actually go up.
    I think CGT is routinely applied to primary residences in the USA and it hasn't caused the sky to fall in there. With respect I think the arguments against it are in the end nothing more than self-interested bunk. It is only the capital gain that is taxed and presuming that it is indexed in some way and levied at a reasonable rate there is no reason why it should lead to disaster. We have got to lance the boil of people primarily viewing housing as an investment vehicle otherwise we will never solve the housing problem. As a property owner for the last 18 years I certainly stand to lose from such a policy but it is the right thing to do to give our childrens' generation a chance.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,415

    Who'd have thunk it?

    Tax disc: Car tax evasion triples after paper version scrapped

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42009111

    Edit: if a car is untaxed, does it also mean it is automatically uninsured? I.e. is any insurance on a car void if it is untaxed? Can you even insure an untaxed car?

    Having no tax does not automatically invalidate your insurance. But it does provide an avenue for an insurer to try and refuse payout in case of a claim on the basis you should not have been driving the car in the first place if it wasn't taxed.
    Thanks.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,456
    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    I like Emily Thornberry quite a lot, but I'm still not sold on her being leader. Unfortunately, her manner just lends itself too easily to the 'snooty' and 'judgemental' stereotypes - I don't think she's like that, having seen more detailed interviews with her, but unfortunately Joe Public will be going with their first impressions from the 30-second soundbites on the news, where she does come across like that. I think she'd have a hard time winning the likes of Mansfield and Stoke.

    My first choice for next leader right now would probably be Angela Rayner, but she's still about two years away from being ready I think.

    Yvette Cooper should be leader of the Labour party. Simples. They would be 10-15 points ahead by now.

    Can't happen now because of Ed M's bonkers £3 a go vote change.
    I can't see why you'd assume that, since she would basically be replicating the Miliband strategy - which, lest we forget, performed poorly against a similarly shambolic government.
    Not even close to levels of internal division, chaos and new external issues.
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    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578
    TGOHF said:

    stodge said:



    Parliament is sovereign, a future Parliament can do whatever it likes.

    Just like the 1975 result would have been overturned eight years later by a general election result.

    It has surprised me how much the results of other referenda have been respected by the "losing" side.

    Will the Brexit referendum join that list in time or will remainerism live on into the 2020s ?
    Leaverism lasted 40 years and bearing in mind the closeness of the 2016 result and the fact that the world promised by the leavers has already proved to be a fantasy I very much doubt that it will be another 40 years before the question is put again.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,456
    marke09 said:

    DavidL said:

    The 6 week wait is appalling and needs to go but even 4 weeks is going to be seriously harsh for people who will end up either living on charity or stealing to eat because of the government's incompetence and inability to process things within an acceptable period of time. How long does an insurance company take to sell car insurance or a bank to rip you off with a dodgy mortgage with an interesting insurance product on the side?

    Some money to take the rough edges on this is going to need to be found in the budget.

    I went with a friend to a Job Centre today and there were leaflets about UC - it said if you cannot wait you can have an advanced payment which is half of the UC they will get repayable over 6 months for new claimants and 12 months for ths moving from another benefit. That advanced payment can be paid out same day
    I'm confused about all this, since I've heard the same but everyone still mentions the 6 weeks as though it is immutable. If they said the advance mitigation was not sufficient that'd be different, but most don't mention it all, so I don't know if they realise it, or they do but didn't mention it.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,456

    RobD said:

    Lloyd Blankfein now calling for a second referendum:
    https://twitter.com/lloydblankfein/status/931170132616974336

    The losers always want another go ;)
    Technically it will be the third referendum.

    Side with the highest overall average across the three wins.
    Why three and not five? I'm comfortable with a rerun, free country and all that, but when presented as a solution I have doubts as to its efficacy.
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    kle4 said:

    marke09 said:

    DavidL said:

    The 6 week wait is appalling and needs to go but even 4 weeks is going to be seriously harsh for people who will end up either living on charity or stealing to eat because of the government's incompetence and inability to process things within an acceptable period of time. How long does an insurance company take to sell car insurance or a bank to rip you off with a dodgy mortgage with an interesting insurance product on the side?

    Some money to take the rough edges on this is going to need to be found in the budget.

    I went with a friend to a Job Centre today and there were leaflets about UC - it said if you cannot wait you can have an advanced payment which is half of the UC they will get repayable over 6 months for new claimants and 12 months for ths moving from another benefit. That advanced payment can be paid out same day
    I'm confused about all this, since I've heard the same but everyone still mentions the 6 weeks as though it is immutable. If they said the advance mitigation was not sufficient that'd be different, but most don't mention it all, so I don't know if they realise it, or they do but didn't mention it.
    It still leaves them without effectively a month's worth of money.
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