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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As the Brexit Bill goes into the committee stage punters remain unconvinced that UK will leave on March 29 2019
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https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/11/the-secret-correspondence-between-donald-trump-jr-and-wikileaks/545738/
I hoped he would learn some humility after the disaster of June 8th, but no
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/930199927694725120
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/837248/philip-hammond-theresa-may-brexit-nick-timothy-mark-carney-remainer-Richard-Tice-EU
I'm a bit doubtful about the family's motivations here. Sure, he's behaving unusually and it doesn't seem very wise, but why are they so desperate about it to the point of considering making their child homeless? Is he an unpleasant resident? Does their affection for him depend on his career path? Are they very short of money and need him to start earning to avoid a crisis?
I think they should continue to house him, offer a hand now and then as they've been doing, and expect that in due course he'll want to do something more. I don't get why they're hassling him.
I have a relative who the family has been supporting for decades, incidentally. We could afford it, he had modest needs, we thought it strange that he didn't want to work, but he seems happy and we could afford it, so OK.
https://twitter.com/thistlejohn/status/930200749816107009
https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/930197087526051840
I do love wishful thinking in political betting markets. Wise heads will look not at what they want to happen, but what is likely to happen. That means understanding the mechanism of any purported change of direction. In this case, there isn't one that doesn't involve heroic political and (more importantly) legal somersaults.
The reason they are desperate is because it has been going on a long time. They worry that (a) it’s a sign of unhappiness which needs addressing; (b) it may trigger a further bout of mental illness and the last one involved self harm and violence to others; (c) the child can be very unpleasant and vile, which is not nice, to put it mildly, and this has led to serious difficulties in relations with siblings. The child can also be very charming and funny and has talent and intelligence. And they think that it is no good for anyone to do nothing with their life - whether paid or voluntary work or some other purpose.
The parents are on the cusp of retirement and one has a chronic illness which does not help. The career path does not matter. But a life without work or a purpose is no good for anyone.
I have already suggested sending him to someone else in the family but it is hard to impose someone with mental health issues on others. It is not easy to understand how hard it is living with someone who can, on a hair’s trigger, turn violent.
Perhaps one shouldn’t say this to PB’ers but life is not lived in your room........
https://twitter.com/jamiedupree/status/930204183126560769
It really is as simple as that. Sure, we might in practice still be paying vast sums, be subject to EU rules and ECJ jurisdiction for a transitional period (or maybe even longer), but we won't be an EU member state. We won't have a place in the Council of Ministers and we won't have MEPs in the EU parliament. What's more, despite what Lord Kerr thinks (he claims to have written Article 50, but doesn't seem to have read it), there's no way of this being averted except with the unanimous consent of the EU27 plus the UK, and there's no realistic chance of getting that consent in the incredibly tight timescale available.
On (a) I think that forcing him out would probably make it worse - it might help, but it's too much of a gamble. (b) and (c) are serious and perhaps having him omitted for therapy might be an option if he has another violent bout. But of course it's hard to recommnd without knowing them all personally (and even then, I'm sure).
I am medical, and I have seen this mental scenario with chronic cannabis use (the sort of people who smoke several joints a day); I mention that not in any judgemental way (I would decriminalize drugs if it was up to me) and it may not be relevant here, but it is an observation that I have made far too many times over the years, and not just in the young; I have seen plenty of habitual users in their fifties and sixties, many of whom have wasted their lives.
I hope you find a way forward with your relative. It's brave of you to talk about such things.
Endearingly batshit in places, though - ambassador to Australia ???
But public opinion has barely budged.
Unless we can see a fixed majority against Brexit in polling over the next 12 months, will Parliament really vote down a Brexit agreement?
And there was one time someone concluded on this site I should be a Minister of War because of my hostility towards the current Russian government.
May's speech is politically convenient, it isn't just a PM taking care of UK security business. She did, however, omit one of our biggest problems in protecting Western liberal democracy and that is the political elites, the so called liberal progressives in particular who seem to forget that the fundamental is a free democracy and it has to be defended and fought for, not their particular hobby horses. Once Trump got elected, people soon started changing their tune.
Putin is a schemer and no more. Any disruptive forces to western liberal democracy are courted as well as individuals within political parties who can influence pro-Russian policy.
His regime has gone into murder, including overseas, on a noted scale and repression whilst spreading disruption anywhere it can, but for years we danced around it. the Russian government, however, able to get away with it because we pretended not to notice rather than confronting it.
Putin despises the soft West and its leaders, the Obamas, the Merkels. Such people that seem to gather a tremendous amount of reverence in many circles in the West but for Putin he correctly puts them down as not having the nuts to take him on. He does, however respect strength and he is afraid of it. The collective West can put his regime back in its box, if it is willing to cut the crap and stand up.
Here is a hint, when the Nordic security services, the Swedes, the Finns, the Norwegians, none of them known for hysterics, start flagging Russia as a serious problem, you listen. They have been flagging it up for years now.
Sounds bad. Mental health issues are terribly provided for.
Needs professional help. Ideally drugs to stabilise, then therapy. (Consult a professional. From a reputable list). Quacks abound. It is an unregulated profession, ie, you or I could set up,claiming to be a "therapist", BACP is good.
https://www.bacp.co.uk/
But in the end, someone has to WANT to get well. No treatment short of sectioning works without consent, Sectioning only works by stopping any deadly intent while in crisis. And thus gives enforced drugs to allow stability.
But. Needs to be viewed as an illness. You wouldn't turn a cancer sufferer out on the streets...
As discussed above, it's likely the EU27 would agree to cancel A50 should we wish to communicate it.
I don't think think it's likely.
But it's now possible.
The odds are slight, but improving.
The odds on the MPs doing that are tiny. And it would just mean a whole new raft would put themselves forward, determined to deliver Brexit come what may. Which is why at least one of the 27 will say "What's the point? They are going - this year, next year, five years down the road...."
The only way Brexit gets defeated is by rejoining.
The MPs will largely (not completely) follow the voters on this.
And I suspect, so would the EU.
If the EU were smart (about us staying) they would be throwing a bone on FOM after Christmas.
On the finances, you can get more benefits living at home with parents rather than a partner as parental income isn't assessed for JSA and so forth...
But yes I'd expect a board income to be paid in for an adult living with their parents over about 23.
I'll be sorely disappointed in Alabama if he doesn't make it.
If Theresa May leaves office fast (and the antis need only eight more signatures), she could possibly be replaced by David Davis, but I still think JRM would be more likely. He's less tainted. TM falling would be undisentanglably bound up in people's minds with Brexit incompetence. If she hangs on for a while, JRM is almost nailed on.
'Putin is a schemer and no more. Any disruptive forces to western liberal democracy are courted as well as individuals within political parties who can influence pro-Russian policy.'
I suppose I shouldn't be surprised, but I don't understand Mr Palmer's attitude at all. Being shy and retiring is not justification to be parasitic on your family and society in general. You said that he can be nasty if challenged; that makes me think he's quite aware of what he's doing. The person I describe above quite openly says he doesn't have to worry about housing because he will eventually inherit, and thinks that claiming JSA in order to fund holidays is acceptable.
I think a big part of the problem is the Internet and related media; it acts like the soma in Huxley's Brave New World. You don't need to get depressed if you endlessly stimulate yourself with new shows and games. This person, and your acquaintance, are too intelligent to not be aware of what they are doing and the consequences for others. It is a form of narcissistic selfishness.
In terms of responses, I don't think shutting the door totally is realistic. What might work is forcing them out of the house during working hours, so they can't do what they want whenever they want. Not having WiFi at home is another option to consider.
Apologies for the essay; just thought I'd share my story.
I'm not quite sure what to say here, but the impression I took from the description of this adult child was that of a self-aware individual using threats to himself and others to leverage money and shelter from parents and relatives. The advices from others of voluntary and helping services (therapy, getting friends involved) may misunderstand the problem: this is not somebody who needs help, but is a threat that needs defending against. Perhaps the time has come for involuntary or coercive measures (evict him, change the locks, contact social services, lawyers, courts or the police). If they feel threatened the parents can rent people to do the eviction. I know this is awkward and difficult but I'm not sure any other method will work.
If I've got this wrong, please feel free to tell me to bog off.
What fun he must have been to work with.
But having masterminded a cataclysmic election result, been identified as the person MPs want out for bullying behaviour etc. and yet merely months later to be laying into the chancellor and asking if he actually wants to improve people’s lives that much shows extraordinary gumption.
It’s also I guess rather unhelpful to Theresa May.
Even on the budget deficit, it is not clear that Hammond is correct. As many economists and Conservative thinkers have said, there is no need to make a fetish of running a surplus every year or even most years.
Whether such a referendum could happen is mostly a question about internal Conservative party politics. But it would serve May well to hold one, not least because the leavers would have to go easy on demagoguing her deal as a betrayal of Britain etc etc for fear of losing the referendum.
https://www.ft.com/content/49dc02dc-c637-11e7-a1d2-6786f39ef675
Other ministers are convinced that they are more committed to each other than to a British citizen unfairly locked up in a foreign prison. “They’ve just been busy conspiring for their own advancement on the back of Theresa May’s weakness,” one says. “They’re destroying the country trying to promote their own careers. Now Nazanin has become the victim of their ambition.”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/brexits-arch-plotters-care-only-for-themselves-h0lq5cmqp
But Article 68 :
A Notification or Instrument provided for in Article 65 or 67 (these deal with termination or withdrawal from treaties) may be revoked at any time before it takes effect.
Article 26 defines the idea of 'Good Faith' in treaty law. Reading the two together then one might revoke unilaterally so long as it is not an attempt to circumvent the process of the treaty in question.
https://treaties.un.org/doc/publication/unts/volume 1155/volume-1155-i-18232-english.pdf
https://blogs.sussex.ac.uk/uktpo/2017/03/17/can-a-notification-under-article-50-teu-be-unilaterally-withdrawn/
The Iranians put her in jail. The narcissistic manoeuvrings of Laurel and Hardy have not improved her lot.
They just can't. Any concession on FOM is one that MANY other states will want too.
https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/locals-were-troubled-by-roy-moores-interactions-with-teen-girls-at-the-gadsden-mall
Post-Brexit, the UK needs to detach itself from EU foreign policy and deal with foreign states and national liberation movements in a more neutral even-handed way - so more cordial relations with Russia, Iran and Hamas are desirable, but NOT in a biased manner. A Corbyn-led government would be much better placed to do this.
The Maybot is making matters worse with her latest comments about Russia, as if the West doesn't behave similarly, e.g. in the Ukraine (2004 and 2014) or Chile (1973). And as for Priti Patel, her behaviour was completely out-of-order, but it took nearly 3 months before she was exposed and she only "resigned" because she was found out.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.130766060
I do wonder if the odds are being influenced by bad wording. Although from the rules it's clear that Yes will win if the UK leaves on 29/3/19, from the title of the market, you could be forgiven for thinking that it'll be settled on whether Britain leaves before that date.
Put simply, no-one knows whether the EU - even all 28 members and the Commission and EP - could cancel Brexit by agreement because there's no provision within the treaties and an 'indefinite extension of the exit period' could be considered to run counter to the spirit of the treaties. Basically, everyone would be taking a massive flyer that the ECJ would endorse the Council agreement - because if it didn't, all hell would break loose.
But then, if Brexit were cancelled without a new mandate in Britain (for which there's getting to be precious little time), all hell would break loose here.
The only way this gets resolved is by sending a very contrite Boris to Tehran to negotiate her release - almost anything else we do, including headlines like that in the Times, are likely to only make the situation worse.
Labour are hoping to make things look as awkward as possible in the next 19 months and even longer if they can wangle a transition period. Then they want to be able to lead an MPs rebellion to say NO to whatever deal is arranged, or as a second prize to vote for a second referendum, claiming the public want it. And they always do what the public want.
They could, of course, tell the truth, and make a virtue out of honesty, but they won't.
This is school ground chicanery, and that's why I have little respect for politicians.
Boris, and Boris...