And how the hell is Obama`s decision got anything to do with Miliband.PB gets worse everyday with a bunch of posters wearing blinders making the most bizarre comments ever,an example being the author of this thread who seems to think the glass is always half-full.
Fraser Nelson@frasernelson10m Obama’s decision to recall Congress before a Syria strike pays David Cameron the highest compliment. My blog: http://specc.ie/1dwjNPL
HAHAHAHA - Another one...Fraser Nelson....are we going for the full house.....has anyone got anything from any of the Sun journo's? Surely a quote from that independent columnist Trevor Kavanagh explaining how David Cameron is now in the strongest political shape of his life must be forthcoming.
Oh yeah,the Sun editorial this morning savaged Miliband as `the real villain`.They are desperate for Dave to win a second term but unfortunately he keeps f...... up.
If Cameron had really done so well, he wouldn't need so many of his supporters in the press writing articles and so many of his party on Twitter trying to convince everyone that the vote defeat was actually a victory. Still doesn't stop the PB Hodges repeating it though.
@Roger Very late to this thread so someone else has probably already made my comment for me: There's a big difference between persuading and over-persuading. IMHO, Mr Blair used his undoubted persuasive skills beyond the dividing line. I ended up feeling I'd been conned, and I very much doubt I was alone.
Camerons statement that there is no majority in the house for military action is going to look like one of his dimmer statements, reverse ferret on that one I think.
You can't mess Cameron around, tim.
He showed that on the Leveson cross-party talks when Miliband couldn't make up his mind and kept wibbling and obstructing.
And he showed that on the Syrian Intervention vote when Miliband couldn't make up his mind and kept wibbling and obstructing.
As I said downthread, if Miliband regrets his action and shows proper remorse, Cameron may be sympathetic to him introducing a Private Members Bill authorising military action.
Otherwise the matter is closed and everyone hopes Miliband won't make the same mistake for a third time.
Camerons statement that there is no majority in the house for military action is going to look like one of his dimmer statements, reverse ferret on that one I think.
That's just not how that's going to go down, tim. Cameron isn't going to put it back to the house without Labour support and at that point it isn't going to look like a U-turn - and there won't be anyone to really push the point either.
I mean, if I am wrong and he goes back to the house without Labour support, then he's going to find it much tougher to show things have changed. But I think this course highly unlikely and I'm sure you do.
WRT US , I think the Republicans hold much the same attitude as UKIP and the Tory right towards Syrian intervention.
While respecting your personal views, Sean, I think Obama will have sought undertakings on support from the Republicans before agreeing to congressional approval.
And in the US, when the leader of an opposition party agrees to support a President, their word is their bond. As indeed is the case in most advanced democracies.
Survation @Survation 11m Survation for The Mail on Sunday - Voting Intention (Change since August 4th) CON 29% (+1) LAB 37% (+1) UKIP 17% (-1) LD 11% (NC) AP 7% (NC)
All the summer hysteria from the PB Tories and no movement.
Labours percentage yet again within the Fort Knox style bracket. The rest is just noise.
Camerons statement that there is no majority in the house for military action is going to look like one of his dimmer statements, reverse ferret on that one I think.
No tim - it'll just come across that Miliband has changed his mind and how on earth was Cameron to know that Miliband would change his mind.
Survation @Survation 11m Survation for The Mail on Sunday - Voting Intention (Change since August 4th) CON 29% (+1) LAB 37% (+1) UKIP 17% (-1) LD 11% (NC) AP 7% (NC)
All the summer hysteria from the PB Tories and no movement.
Labours percentage yet again within the Fort Knox style bracket. The rest is just noise.
UKIP ain't budging either. Oh dear !
And here lies the Tory problem. They like Avery LP/PB Hodges/Dan Hodges can repeat the weak, weak, weak line until they are quite literally blue in the face. It has not effected the Labour percentage. I just hope they realise this some time during July 2015.
So Hollande can now prove what a macho guy he is. I can't wait for their only missile to be launched. I hope the submarine doesn't sink while launching the damn thing !
Survation @Survation 11m Survation for The Mail on Sunday - Voting Intention (Change since August 4th) CON 29% (+1) LAB 37% (+1) UKIP 17% (-1) LD 11% (NC) AP 7% (NC)
All the summer hysteria from the PB Tories and no movement.
Labours percentage yet again within the Fort Knox style bracket. The rest is just noise.
UKIP ain't budging either. Oh dear !
And here lies the Tory problem. They like Avery LP/PB Hodges/Dan Hodges can repeat the weak, weak, weak line until they are quite literally blue in the face. It has not effected the Labour percentage. I just hope they realise this some time during July 2015.
They won't. THen it will become the British peopel's fault. In all their Ed bashing in the last two days, they have not reflected one moment on what the British public were saying.
Toffs , after all, don't worry about what the plebs think !
Labour thinks that planning ahead for a nano second is a long time...This vote on Thursday will come back and rip their butt off.. Relax Surb.. you will never notice.. it will need intelligence.. so dont worry
And how the hell is Obama`s decision got anything to do with Miliband.PB gets worse everyday with a bunch of posters wearing blinders making the most bizarre comments ever,an example being the author of this thread who seems to think the glass is always half-full.
Fraser Nelson@frasernelson10m Obama’s decision to recall Congress before a Syria strike pays David Cameron the highest compliment. My blog: http://specc.ie/1dwjNPL
HAHAHAHA - Another one...Fraser Nelson....are we going for the full house.....has anyone got anything from any of the Sun journo's? Surely a quote from that independent columnist Trevor Kavanagh explaining how David Cameron is now in the strongest political shape of his life must be forthcoming.
I think you may be new to this game - Nelson is a Conservative but he has been often highly critical of Cameron.
"Nelson is a Conservative", that's all that matters. So when people say "Ed's day just got worse" it should have read...."Yet another Conservative supporter thinks Cameron done well from Thursday night and has wrote an article/made a quote on Twitter about it".
Partisans post as such on all sides - some on here perhaps more quick-witted than I might suspect you have left-wing tendencies - nothing wrong with that - chill, people have different views and this is a site on which to express them.
He only lost the govt vote through massive incompetence, even the Baronets and Etonians can't cock it up on that scale again. Even Justine may have finished her Rwandan cupboard discussion in time for the bell next time.
If Obama won`t attack till September 9,why was Cameron in a hurry to recall the UK Parliament.Do you think he got bored of subathing in Polzeath?
Survation @Survation 11m Survation for The Mail on Sunday - Voting Intention (Change since August 4th) CON 29% (+1) LAB 37% (+1) UKIP 17% (-1) LD 11% (NC) AP 7% (NC)
All the summer hysteria from the PB Tories and no movement.
Labours percentage yet again within the Fort Knox style bracket. The rest is just noise.
UKIP ain't budging either. Oh dear !
And here lies the Tory problem. They like Avery LP/PB Hodges/Dan Hodges can repeat the weak, weak, weak line until they are quite literally blue in the face. It has not effected the Labour percentage. I just hope they realise this some time during July 2015.
They won't. THen it will become the British peopel's fault. In all their Ed bashing in the last two days, they have not reflected one moment on what the British public were saying.
Toffs , after all, don't worry about what the plebs think !
I keep fearing that one day it will dawn on them, but it hasn't and it hasn't for quite a long time, so when I come on here and they keep saying it, then see the quotes they post backing it up, I am quite relieved. Long may it last.
Survation @Survation 11m Survation for The Mail on Sunday - Voting Intention (Change since August 4th) CON 29% (+1) LAB 37% (+1) UKIP 17% (-1) LD 11% (NC) AP 7% (NC)
All the summer hysteria from the PB Tories and no movement.
Labours percentage yet again within the Fort Knox style bracket. The rest is just noise.
UKIP ain't budging either. Oh dear !
And here lies the Tory problem. They like Avery LP/PB Hodges/Dan Hodges can repeat the weak, weak, weak line until they are quite literally blue in the face. It has not effected the Labour percentage. I just hope they realise this some time during July 2015.
They won't. THen it will become the British peopel's fault. In all their Ed bashing in the last two days, they have not reflected one moment on what the British public were saying.
Toffs , after all, don't worry about what the plebs think !
Oh dear - back to the class war. In fact Labour's poll lead has shrunk in recent weeks/months - for a multitude of reasons including the Miliband factor. The GE is still some distance away - no need for you to panic - quite yet:)
Survation @Survation 11m Survation for The Mail on Sunday - Voting Intention (Change since August 4th) CON 29% (+1) LAB 37% (+1) UKIP 17% (-1) LD 11% (NC) AP 7% (NC)
All the summer hysteria from the PB Tories and no movement.
Labours percentage yet again within the Fort Knox style bracket. The rest is just noise.
UKIP ain't budging either. Oh dear !
And here lies the Tory problem. They like Avery LP/PB Hodges/Dan Hodges can repeat the weak, weak, weak line until they are quite literally blue in the face. It has not effected the Labour percentage. I just hope they realise this some time during July 2015.
You think that 37% of the population will vote for Ed Miliband's finger to be on the nuclear button in 2015?
Chief of Defence Staff Birmingham has been obliterated in a nuclear attack launched from Iran, Prime Minister. What are you instructions?
PM Miliband Are you sure it is Iran, Chief?
Chief of Defence Staff The intelligence assessment shows the highest level of confidence, Prime Minister.
PM Miliband But what about French intelligence reports? What do they say?
Chief of Defence Staff Manchester has now been hit , Prime Minister. Shall we respond?
PM Miliband I need to consult my shadow cabinet, Chief. And wait for tomorrow's YouGov polls.
Chief of Defence Staff Liverpool,has now been hit Prime Minister. I urge you to make a quick decision. London is sure to be next.
PM Miliband Will it affect Islington and Brewers Green?
Chief of Defence Staff It is sure to, Prime Minister. Glasgow and Faslane now gone, Sir.
PM Miliband Let me sleep on it, Chief.
[Prime Minister exits Cabinet Room and runs upstairs]
"The world does not suddenly become a nicer or safer place just because a small majority of MPs decide that Britain should sit on its hands and watch on from the sidelines. Britain remains one of a very small number of democratic nations with the military and diplomatic capability to help to defend international law.”
It seems Cameron is now getting criticism on the timetabling of this as well as the recall. A few thoughts on this:
The time pressure came from Obama; it seems he wanted to launch before or at this weekend, before he went away on an international trip. Obama does not have to get congressional approval before ordering strikes. As the senior member of any coalition, he has the final say on the timetable.
Cameron wanted (rightly IMHO) for parliament's will to be known. For that to happen, he had to recall parliament with all the problems and inconvenience that entails.
He could only release the analysis of intelligence information that the UK had. He could not press the US to release their analysis earlier than Obama wanted. As Obama did not need congressional approval, the best time to release the US's information was shortly before the planned strikes. There is also a danger that such a combined move may have made it looks as though it was a concerted effort, devaluing both in some people's eyes. (*)
It is hard to see what else Cameron could have done to stop this, aside from choosing not to respond to the use of chemical weapons in Syria. That was a very difficult moral and political decision.
(*) It is obvious that for many of our parliamentarians, no amount of evidence would be enough. That belief seems to be echoed by some on here.
He only lost the govt vote through massive incompetence, even the Baronets and Etonians can't cock it up on that scale again. Even Justine may have finished her Rwandan cupboard discussion in time for the bell next time.
If Obama won`t attack till September 9,why was Cameron in a hurry to recall the UK Parliament.Do you think he got bored of subathing in Polzeath?
Cameron's error was to trust ReD. With Parly in recess and MPs scattered around the world but with Cameron attempting to put together a consensual motion which he believed ReD would support, there seemed not too much incentive to fire up the government whips. But ReD wanted to play politics, changed his mind to not support the government. Too late to gather the government troops. And ReD said he didn't want the outcome!
WRT US , I think the Republicans hold much the same attitude as UKIP and the Tory right towards Syrian intervention.
While respecting your personal views, Sean, I think Obama will have sought undertakings on support from the Republicans before agreeing to congressional approval.
And in the US, when the leader of an opposition party agrees to support a President, their word is their bond. As indeed is the case in most advanced democracies.
In the USA the President is also Commander-in-Chief and commands huge respect in that rank.
Following AveryLP's admirable plan. Here's my own contribution...
Chief of Defence Staff: Birmingham has been obliterated in a nuclear attack launched from Iran, Prime Minister. What are you instructions?
PM Miliband: Where in the world is Birmingham?
Chief of Defence Staff: It's our city, Chief. A bit north.
PM Miliband: My God, you mean our voters?
Chief of Defence Staff : Yes
PM Miliband: They live, or lived in Birmingham did they? I never knew.
Chief of Defence Staff: Manchester too now, Prime Minister. Shall we respond?
PM Miliband: Why, what have the Tories said?
Chief of Defence Staff: No Sir, I mean Manchester has been obliterated too.
PM Miliband: Well it had so much to answer for. My voters like the Smiths. Do you think the line will play well?
Chief of Defence Staff: Sir!?
PM Miliband: Yes?.. Oh my word I forgot to ask you how your weekend in Kent went. Did you meet my friend Trevor?
Chief of Defence Staff: No Sir, our response?
PM Miliband: Well just pooh-pooh anything the Tories have said, and make sure that we're not agreeing with Tony.
Chief of Defence Staff: Sir, I don't think you understand the gravity of the situation. This is your big test!
PM Miliband: Oh why didn't you tell me Yvette was here before! I have a big red button that I can press you know. It'll quieten down you defence types I tell you.
Looks like PM Erdogan of Turkey was right. Last night I reported that he said that action would occur in the next two weeks. Yesterday, from a military perspective at least, this appeared plain nuts. Delays in launching the attacks has already given Assad's forces plenty of prep time (so much so the Pentagon is having to redo its lists) so more delay didn't make sense. Perhaps Erdogan had picked up the straws in the wind.
Many speculations here. Is Obama looking a get out of jail free card? He has habit in domestic politics of hitching people to the wagon to take the return fire when things get difficult so this may be the same move. He might be looking Congress to say no and get out of overt action full stop.
If you take the view he's genuine and not playing a very cynical game domestically, then you have to assume that he thinks he has this nailed down. The Administration was due consultations with Congressional types this afternoon. Is it possible he had them in the immediate minutes before his statement?
The most significant part of the speech. He talked about private support around the World that he wanted to be public. If you are a Gulf State in particular you'll know what he is getting at. They back it, they host bases, but they have yet to come out and say, 'yes we support such action'. Other countries have been similar. Like Obama's own leading from behind approach, a lot of people want to hide behind someone else's skirt. If they all start doing it, its a bit awkward. US officials don't want private, 'we'll back you', they want it in public
4 nations have actually stepped up to the plate and said do something and mean it, Israel, Turkey, France & South Korea. South Korea? Like Israel, they have plenty to fear as regards US security guarantees if the US doesn't cow Assad or anyone else from using this gear again.
On the ground its made for awkwardness for Assads forces. They have scattered, officials have got out of the way,command buildings have been left. How does this play out for them knowing something might occur but they have to wait with already a partially impacted military infrastructure stuck like that until a bomb drops? Will it negatively affect them or will they think that the US will bottle it or that they can make strikes irrelevant and roll on?
Same for insurgents, if Assads military capabilities have been a bit thrown out of sync, can they take advantage?
Now Obama has passed the parcel to congress both Cerise and Cameron are okay as long as they stand on Obama's coat-tails.
Especially if it turns out some of the rebels were stock-piling chemical weapons in some tunnels and they got detonated by Assad's shelling.
Your scenario of weapons in tunnels does not stand up against Kerry's statement of the intelligence.
Syrian state TV has been running stories about this weapons in tunnels business, funnily enough after the attack in the Damascus suburbs. All depends whether you believe State TV.
'Syrian state TV has been running stories about this weapons in tunnels business, funnily enough after the attack in the Damascus suburbs. All depends whether you believe State TV'
The same people that believed the Iraq minister of Information.
Comments
You really could not make this up.
He showed that on the Leveson cross-party talks when Miliband couldn't make up his mind and kept wibbling and obstructing.
And he showed that on the Syrian Intervention vote when Miliband couldn't make up his mind and kept wibbling and obstructing.
As I said downthread, if Miliband regrets his action and shows proper remorse, Cameron may be sympathetic to him introducing a Private Members Bill authorising military action.
Otherwise the matter is closed and everyone hopes Miliband won't make the same mistake for a third time.
I mean, if I am wrong and he goes back to the house without Labour support, then he's going to find it much tougher to show things have changed. But I think this course highly unlikely and I'm sure you do.
Especially if it turns out some of the rebels were stock-piling chemical weapons in some tunnels and they got detonated by Assad's shelling.
And in the US, when the leader of an opposition party agrees to support a President, their word is their bond. As indeed is the case in most advanced democracies.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dDZoVmdlVXBEQVNvcUNfR294UXo0S3c&usp=drive_web#gid=0
Ross Hawkins @rosschawkins
Lord Ashdown tells me Obama decision means UK Parliament could reconsider its position. Says opens all sorts of new possibilities.
Nigel nelson
http://www.mirror.co.uk/opinion/news-opinion/were-wrong-syria---im-2241445
But then you knew that already didn't you?
Toffs , after all, don't worry about what the plebs think !
Relax Surb.. you will never notice.. it will need intelligence.. so dont worry
Thanks for that. Very useful like your other spreadsheets.
Partisans post as such on all sides - some on here perhaps more quick-witted than I might suspect you have left-wing tendencies - nothing wrong with that - chill, people have different views and this is a site on which to express them.
Yes - so has it led to a big poll boost for Labour?
[Averaging eight consecutive polls as shown on this Wikipedia page]
Chief of Defence Staff Birmingham has been obliterated in a nuclear attack launched from Iran, Prime Minister. What are you instructions?
PM Miliband Are you sure it is Iran, Chief?
Chief of Defence Staff The intelligence assessment shows the highest level of confidence, Prime Minister.
PM Miliband But what about French intelligence reports? What do they say?
Chief of Defence Staff Manchester has now been hit , Prime Minister. Shall we respond?
PM Miliband I need to consult my shadow cabinet, Chief. And wait for tomorrow's YouGov polls.
Chief of Defence Staff Liverpool,has now been hit Prime Minister. I urge you to make a quick decision. London is sure to be next.
PM Miliband Will it affect Islington and Brewers Green?
Chief of Defence Staff It is sure to, Prime Minister. Glasgow and Faslane now gone, Sir.
PM Miliband Let me sleep on it, Chief.
[Prime Minister exits Cabinet Room and runs upstairs]
PM Miliband Justine! Justine!
"The world does not suddenly become a nicer or safer place just because a small majority of MPs decide that Britain should sit on its hands and watch on from the sidelines. Britain remains one of a very small number of democratic nations with the military and diplomatic capability to help to defend international law.”
http://www.stephencrabb.com/displaynews.aspx?ArticleID=295
It seems Cameron is now getting criticism on the timetabling of this as well as the recall. A few thoughts on this:
The time pressure came from Obama; it seems he wanted to launch before or at this weekend, before he went away on an international trip. Obama does not have to get congressional approval before ordering strikes. As the senior member of any coalition, he has the final say on the timetable.
Cameron wanted (rightly IMHO) for parliament's will to be known. For that to happen, he had to recall parliament with all the problems and inconvenience that entails.
He could only release the analysis of intelligence information that the UK had. He could not press the US to release their analysis earlier than Obama wanted. As Obama did not need congressional approval, the best time to release the US's information was shortly before the planned strikes. There is also a danger that such a combined move may have made it looks as though it was a concerted effort, devaluing both in some people's eyes. (*)
It is hard to see what else Cameron could have done to stop this, aside from choosing not to respond to the use of chemical weapons in Syria. That was a very difficult moral and political decision.
(*) It is obvious that for many of our parliamentarians, no amount of evidence would be enough. That belief seems to be echoed by some on here.
Is Cousin Seth back from Cleethorpes yet ? The local Conservative MPs opposed giving succor to Al Qaeda it should be noted.
Chief of Defence Staff: Birmingham has been obliterated in a nuclear attack launched from Iran, Prime Minister. What are you instructions?
PM Miliband: Where in the world is Birmingham?
Chief of Defence Staff: It's our city, Chief. A bit north.
PM Miliband: My God, you mean our voters?
Chief of Defence Staff : Yes
PM Miliband: They live, or lived in Birmingham did they? I never knew.
Chief of Defence Staff: Manchester too now, Prime Minister. Shall we respond?
PM Miliband: Why, what have the Tories said?
Chief of Defence Staff: No Sir, I mean Manchester has been obliterated too.
PM Miliband: Well it had so much to answer for. My voters like the Smiths. Do you think the line will play well?
Chief of Defence Staff: Sir!?
PM Miliband: Yes?.. Oh my word I forgot to ask you how your weekend in Kent went. Did you meet my friend Trevor?
Chief of Defence Staff: No Sir, our response?
PM Miliband: Well just pooh-pooh anything the Tories have said, and make sure that we're not agreeing with Tony.
Chief of Defence Staff: Sir, I don't think you understand the gravity of the situation. This is your big test!
PM Miliband: Oh why didn't you tell me Yvette was here before! I have a big red button that I can press you know. It'll quieten down you defence types I tell you.
Looks like PM Erdogan of Turkey was right. Last night I reported that he said that action would occur in the next two weeks. Yesterday, from a military perspective at least, this appeared plain nuts. Delays in launching the attacks has already given Assad's forces plenty of prep time (so much so the Pentagon is having to redo its lists) so more delay didn't make sense. Perhaps Erdogan had picked up the straws in the wind.
Many speculations here. Is Obama looking a get out of jail free card? He has habit in domestic politics of hitching people to the wagon to take the return fire when things get difficult so this may be the same move. He might be looking Congress to say no and get out of overt action full stop.
If you take the view he's genuine and not playing a very cynical game domestically, then you have to assume that he thinks he has this nailed down. The Administration was due consultations with Congressional types this afternoon. Is it possible he had them in the immediate minutes before his statement?
The most significant part of the speech. He talked about private support around the World that he wanted to be public. If you are a Gulf State in particular you'll know what he is getting at. They back it, they host bases, but they have yet to come out and say, 'yes we support such action'. Other countries have been similar. Like Obama's own leading from behind approach, a lot of people want to hide behind someone else's skirt. If they all start doing it, its a bit awkward. US officials don't want private, 'we'll back you', they want it in public
4 nations have actually stepped up to the plate and said do something and mean it, Israel, Turkey, France & South Korea. South Korea? Like Israel, they have plenty to fear as regards US security guarantees if the US doesn't cow Assad or anyone else from using this gear again.
On the ground its made for awkwardness for Assads forces. They have scattered, officials have got out of the way,command buildings have been left. How does this play out for them knowing something might occur but they have to wait with already a partially impacted military infrastructure stuck like that until a bomb drops? Will it negatively affect them or will they think that the US will bottle it or that they can make strikes irrelevant and roll on?
Same for insurgents, if Assads military capabilities have been a bit thrown out of sync, can they take advantage?
'Syrian state TV has been running stories about this weapons in tunnels business, funnily enough after the attack in the Damascus suburbs. All depends whether you believe State TV'
The same people that believed the Iraq minister of Information.