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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » To add to TMay’s gloom the latest ORB Brexit trackers don’t lo

SystemSystem Posts: 12,258
edited November 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » To add to TMay’s gloom the latest ORB Brexit trackers don’t look good for her or the government

It’s been a pretty dreadful 24 hours for what we describe as the “Government”. On top of the stresses caused by the abuse scandal we now have what seems like a massive cock-up by the the Foreign Secretary and the Patel meetings in Israel.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,301
    First.

    Corbyn's hubris about to get the better of him?

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5058921/Jeremy-Corbyn-job-activist-convicted-election-fraud.html
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    You have to wonder about the 34% who approve of the Brexit negotiations.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    dr_spyn said:

    First.

    Corbyn's hubris about to get the better of him?

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5058921/Jeremy-Corbyn-job-activist-convicted-election-fraud.html

    Marsha-Jane Thompson reportedly submitted 100 fake voter registration forms and forged signatures on some of them while a housing officer in Newham, east London

    About as surprising to find that Lewis Hamilton doesn't like to pay too much tax...
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,355
    AlastairMeeks said:

    You have to wonder about the 34% who approve of the Brexit negotiations.

    Or the 48% who voted Remain?
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    dr_spyn said:

    First.

    Corbyn's hubris about to get the better of him?

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5058921/Jeremy-Corbyn-job-activist-convicted-election-fraud.html

    Marsha-Jane Thompson reportedly submitted 100 fake voter registration forms and forged signatures on some of them while a housing officer in Newham, east London

    About as surprising to find that Lewis Hamilton doesn't like to pay too much tax...
    It won't harm Corbyn in the slightest. Which is utterly wrong. This person should not be permitted anywhere near the political/democratic process ever again. But Corbyn gets away with everything at the moment.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/isabelhardman/status/927938077359779842
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    oxfordsimon said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    dr_spyn said:

    First.

    Corbyn's hubris about to get the better of him?

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5058921/Jeremy-Corbyn-job-activist-convicted-election-fraud.html

    Marsha-Jane Thompson reportedly submitted 100 fake voter registration forms and forged signatures on some of them while a housing officer in Newham, east London

    About as surprising to find that Lewis Hamilton doesn't like to pay too much tax...
    It won't harm Corbyn in the slightest. Which is utterly wrong. This person should not be permitted anywhere near the political/democratic process ever again. But Corbyn gets away with everything at the moment.
    Obviously it is a Zionist smear....
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,518
    The question arises again. Why did Fallon go? If Patel in particular, as well as Boris can stay, why him? Did he do anything much worse than we have heard?
    Or had he simply had enough?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    I do admire the irony of the electorate denying Theresa May the majority she needed to be able to negotiate effectively with the EU, and then complaining that she won't get a good deal.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @tnewtondunn: No10: the PM only learned about Priti Patel's discussions to give aid to Israeli Army this morning, from @BBCJLandale. It gets worse.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,518
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    oxfordsimon said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    dr_spyn said:

    First.

    Corbyn's hubris about to get the better of him?

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5058921/Jeremy-Corbyn-job-activist-convicted-election-fraud.html

    Marsha-Jane Thompson reportedly submitted 100 fake voter registration forms and forged signatures on some of them while a housing officer in Newham, east London

    About as surprising to find that Lewis Hamilton doesn't like to pay too much tax...
    It won't harm Corbyn in the slightest. Which is utterly wrong. This person should not be permitted anywhere near the political/democratic process ever again. But Corbyn gets away with everything at the moment.
    Obviously it is a Zionist smear....
    Or government incompetence crowding out other news?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,336
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I do admire the irony of the electorate denying Theresa May the majority she needed to be able to negotiate effectively with the EU, and then complaining that she won't get a good deal.

    Theresa May denied herself a majority, not the electorate.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,375
    Looking at the middle graph:

    CROSSOVER!!!

    Laters...
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    AlastairMeeks said:

    You have to wonder about the 34% who approve of the Brexit negotiations.

    I think they are in awe of the Jeeves and Wooster British comedy negotiations.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I do admire the irony of the electorate denying Theresa May the majority she needed to be able to negotiate effectively with the EU, and then complaining that she won't get a good deal.

    The EU have never cared about the size of her majority.

    And Tezza tried to pitch losing it as a plus in Brussels
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,287
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    dr_spyn said:

    First.

    Corbyn's hubris about to get the better of him?

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5058921/Jeremy-Corbyn-job-activist-convicted-election-fraud.html

    Marsha-Jane Thompson reportedly submitted 100 fake voter registration forms and forged signatures on some of them while a housing officer in Newham, east London

    About as surprising to find that Lewis Hamilton doesn't like to pay too much tax...
    Whatever the motivation for her crime, it can't have been political, in Newham, surely.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I do admire the irony of the electorate denying Theresa May the majority she needed to be able to negotiate effectively with the EU, and then complaining that she won't get a good deal.

    Theresa May denied herself a majority, not the electorate.
    The electorate had more than a passing influence in the matter!
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    edited November 2017
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I do admire the irony of the electorate denying Theresa May the majority she needed to be able to negotiate effectively with the EU, and then complaining that she won't get a good deal.

    She should have quit in the weekend after the election she called to get a mandate for her approach to Brexit.

    The default assumption with TMay must be that any big decision she makes is going to be wrong.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    dixiedean said:

    The question arises again. Why did Fallon go? If Patel in particular, as well as Boris can stay, why him? Did he do anything much worse than we have heard?
    Or had he simply had enough?

    Probably just had a bit more integrity and self-respect than them.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,609
    In actual fact May is now making significant progress towards a FTA having agreed to pay an exit bill

    Public opinion does not really follow the broad details of the negotiations so is largely irrelevant until March 2019 and a clear outline of the Brexit terms implementing the Brexit a majority of them voted for is agreed.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,518
    edited November 2017
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I do admire the irony of the electorate denying Theresa May the majority she needed to be able to negotiate effectively with the EU, and then complaining that she won't get a good deal.

    But they didn't. She denied herself a majority by calling a vanity election, and utterly failing to prepare to fight it.
    She had the majority...she pissed it away.
    Her fault...no one else's.
    Edit TSE is quicker and more succinct!
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    MikeSmithson said:

    She should have quit in the weekend after the election she called to get a mandate for her approach to Brexit.

    The default assumption with TMay must that any big decision she makes is going to be wrong.

    I tend to agree. Even so, effectively negotiating Brexit as a minority government would be near-impossible for any PM. It was a catastrophic election result in the circumstances.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    edited November 2017
    JonathanD said:

    dixiedean said:

    The question arises again. Why did Fallon go? If Patel in particular, as well as Boris can stay, why him? Did he do anything much worse than we have heard?
    Or had he simply had enough?

    Probably just had a bit more integrity and self-respect than them.
    It is possible to have a good resignation.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G8t6KRstWIk
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    oxfordsimon said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    dr_spyn said:

    First.

    Corbyn's hubris about to get the better of him?

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5058921/Jeremy-Corbyn-job-activist-convicted-election-fraud.html

    Marsha-Jane Thompson reportedly submitted 100 fake voter registration forms and forged signatures on some of them while a housing officer in Newham, east London

    About as surprising to find that Lewis Hamilton doesn't like to pay too much tax...
    It won't harm Corbyn in the slightest. Which is utterly wrong. This person should not be permitted anywhere near the political/democratic process ever again. But Corbyn gets away with everything at the moment.
    That's because all attention is concentrated on the government. It's incredibly gripping, a real live soap opera. Commentators have no time left to worry about the opposition. If it wasn't so tragic for the country it would be massively entertaining. You just don't know whether to laugh or cry.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,820
    HYUFD said:

    In actual fact May is now making significant progress towards a FTA having agreed to pay an exit bill

    There will be no FTA negotiations until after Brexit. May is making progress on getting to the point where we can discuss the arrangements for a continuity transition deal, which she wants to last for two years.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,336
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I do admire the irony of the electorate denying Theresa May the majority she needed to be able to negotiate effectively with the EU, and then complaining that she won't get a good deal.

    Theresa May denied herself a majority, not the electorate.
    The electorate had more than a passing influence in the matter!
    If only she hadn't called that snap election.

    I wonder what Gordon Brown's autobiography says about the snap election of 2007.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,729
    edited November 2017
    The poll does actually lead to a potential silver lining:

    The public's expectations re any Brexit deal are now very low. Thus if in fact the Govt does somehow manage to get a deal which appears even remotely reasonable then they will have exceeded most people's expectations.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/polhomeeditor/status/927941393833713669
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited November 2017
    MikeL said:

    The poll does actually lead to a potential silver lining:

    The public's expectations re any Brexit deal are now very low. Thus if in fact the Govt does somehow manage to get a deal which appears even remotely reasonable then they will have exceeded most people's expectations.

    True, except that the middle graph shows that as astonishingly high number of people think we'll be better off economically. There's zero chance of that being right for the foreseeable future.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    OK Wegenerbois, answer this one:

    "Portugal is part of Europe" is

    A. True.
    B. False.

    Think carefully.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,108
    williamglenn said:

    HYUFD said:

    In actual fact May is now making significant progress towards a FTA having agreed to pay an exit bill

    There will be no FTA negotiations until after Brexit. May is making progress on getting to the point where we can discuss the arrangements for a continuity transition deal, which she wants to last for two years.
    oooh please sir, please sir, can we have an extension of Article 50 please. Thank you sir.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,609
    https://mobile.twitter.com/YouGov/status/927931675920789505
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I do admire the irony of the electorate denying Theresa May the majority she needed to be able to negotiate effectively with the EU, and then complaining that she won't get a good deal.

    Theresa May denied herself a majority, not the electorate.
    The electorate had more than a passing influence in the matter!
    To be fair Richard the electorate were not desperately asking for an election in April 17.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,355
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I do admire the irony of the electorate denying Theresa May the majority she needed to be able to negotiate effectively with the EU, and then complaining that she won't get a good deal.

    Theresa May denied herself a majority, not the electorate.
    The electorate had more than a passing influence in the matter!
    If only she hadn't called that snap election.

    I wonder what Gordon Brown's autobiography says about the snap election of 2007.
    He still lost power in 2010.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,609
    williamglenn said:

    HYUFD said:

    In actual fact May is now making significant progress towards a FTA having agreed to pay an exit bill

    There will be no FTA negotiations until after Brexit. May is making progress on getting to the point where we can discuss the arrangements for a continuity transition deal, which she wants to last for two years.
    No, Barnier made clear negotiations for a FTA will start by Christmas.

    There do not need to be negotiations for a transition deal, all that is required is ECJ jurisdiction in the UK, payment of the exit bill and free movement continuing for that 2 year transition period.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I do admire the irony of the electorate denying Theresa May the majority she needed to be able to negotiate effectively with the EU, and then complaining that she won't get a good deal.

    Theresa May denied herself a majority, not the electorate.
    The electorate had more than a passing influence in the matter!
    If only she hadn't called that snap election.

    I wonder what Gordon Brown's autobiography says about the snap election of 2007.
    He must be the happiest man in politics right now, he can finally stop torturing himself with the what-might-have-beens.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,609
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/polhomeeditor/status/927941393833713669

    To aid Syrian war victims
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Yorkcity said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I do admire the irony of the electorate denying Theresa May the majority she needed to be able to negotiate effectively with the EU, and then complaining that she won't get a good deal.

    Theresa May denied herself a majority, not the electorate.
    The electorate had more than a passing influence in the matter!
    To be fair Richard the electorate were not desperately asking for an election in April 17.
    True, although it seemed a popular move when she called it. In fact the general feeling at the time (not least on here) from all parts of the political spectrum was that it was a political masterstroke. So it might have been, if her campaign hadn't been so awful.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,609
    edited November 2017
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I do admire the irony of the electorate denying Theresa May the majority she needed to be able to negotiate effectively with the EU, and then complaining that she won't get a good deal.

    Theresa May denied herself a majority, not the electorate.
    The electorate had more than a passing influence in the matter!
    If only she hadn't called that snap election.

    I wonder what Gordon Brown's autobiography says about the snap election of 2007.
    He might have got the 42% and 318 seats May got rather than the abysmal 29% and 258 seats he did get 3 years later you mean?
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Any chance of May asking MPs from other parties to join her in a unity government , until we have left the EU an obtained a deal ?
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited November 2017
    fpt;
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Pong said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-41900744

    That ain't justice.

    He's 90. Do you think he needs deterring?

    I expect he will be punishing himself already far more than any prison would.
    He needed deterring.

    The justice system needs to make it absolutely clear that if you get into a car and mow people down and kill them that there are consequences.

    No?

    I hope the driving after 70 rules are tightened up as a result of this. I doubt they will be.

    Full retest @ 65 & every 3 years afterwards and/or compulsory telematics monitored by DVLA.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,138
    Pong said:

    fpt;

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Pong said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-41900744

    That ain't justice.

    He's 90. Do you think he needs deterring?

    I expect he will be punishing himself already far more than any prison would.
    He needed deterring.

    The justice system needs to make it absolutely clear that if you get into a car and mow people down and kill them that there are consequences.

    No?
    If he wasn't ninety he'd probably be seeing jail time.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Pong said:

    fpt;

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Pong said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-41900744

    That ain't justice.

    He's 90. Do you think he needs deterring?

    I expect he will be punishing himself already far more than any prison would.
    He needed deterring.

    The justice system needs to make it absolutely clear that if you get into a car and mow people down and kill them that there are consequences.

    No?
    You omitted the key words 'deliberately or recklessly'.

    It was an accident, for heaven's sake.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,336
    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I do admire the irony of the electorate denying Theresa May the majority she needed to be able to negotiate effectively with the EU, and then complaining that she won't get a good deal.

    Theresa May denied herself a majority, not the electorate.
    The electorate had more than a passing influence in the matter!
    If only she hadn't called that snap election.

    I wonder what Gordon Brown's autobiography says about the snap election of 2007.
    He might have got the 42% and 318 seats May got rather than the abysmal 29% and 258 seats he did get 3 years later you mean?
    Nope, like Mrs May, Gordon Brown dabbling with a snap election (or therein) despite repeated denials that they would do such a thing damaged them both, and neither of the Premierships ever really recovered.

    Most sensible people acknowledge Mrs May was damaged by the events of June 8th.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,336
    edited November 2017
    Pong said:

    fpt;

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Pong said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-41900744

    That ain't justice.

    He's 90. Do you think he needs deterring?

    I expect he will be punishing himself already far more than any prison would.
    He needed deterring.

    The justice system needs to make it absolutely clear that if you get into a car and mow people down and kill them that there are consequences.

    No?
    He's been given a lifetime driving ban, there's no need for deterrence.

    Given the extenuating circumstances of his life, and that it was an accident, it was a proportional sentence.

    Sad to see you go all Daily Mail when it comes to sentencing and the judiciary.

    Plus as I pointed out on the previous thread, it would cost us a lot to imprison him.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Pong said:

    fpt;

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Pong said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-41900744

    That ain't justice.

    He's 90. Do you think he needs deterring?

    I expect he will be punishing himself already far more than any prison would.
    He needed deterring.

    The justice system needs to make it absolutely clear that if you get into a car and mow people down and kill them that there are consequences.

    No?
    There are consequences: he has received a suspended prison sentence and a lifetime driving ban. Duh.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I do admire the irony of the electorate denying Theresa May the majority she needed to be able to negotiate effectively with the EU, and then complaining that she won't get a good deal.

    Theresa May denied herself a majority, not the electorate.
    The electorate had more than a passing influence in the matter!
    To be fair Richard the electorate were not desperately asking for an election in April 17.
    True, although it seemed a popular move when she called it. In fact the general feeling at the time (not least on here) from all parts of the political spectrum was that it was a political masterstroke. So it might have been, if her campaign hadn't been so awful.
    Yes I agree in April 17 , there was not many predicting the actual result if any .I certainly thought she would win a Blair type landslide.It is the most surprising result in my lifetime.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,609
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I do admire the irony of the electorate denying Theresa May the majority she needed to be able to negotiate effectively with the EU, and then complaining that she won't get a good deal.

    Theresa May denied herself a majority, not the electorate.
    The electorate had more than a passing influence in the matter!
    If only she hadn't called that snap election.

    I wonder what Gordon Brown's autobiography says about the snap election of 2007.
    He might have got the 42% and 318 seats May got rather than the abysmal 29% and 258 seats he did get 3 years later you mean?
    Nope, like Mrs May, Gordon Brown dabbling with a snap election (or therein) despite repeated denials that they would do such a thing damaged them both, and neither of the Premierships ever really recovered.

    Most sensible people acknowledge Mrs May was damaged by the events of June 8th.
    Wrong. Mrs May has secured her place in the history books with the highest Tory voteshare in 34 years and the second highest number of Tory seats in 25 years. Even if she did not do as well as hoped.

    By failing to call a snap election history will record Brown got the second lowest Labour voteshare since WW2 and the lowest number of Labour seats for 23 years until Ed Miliband won even fewer in 2015. Even Corbyn outperformed Brown.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,518
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/polhomeeditor/status/927941393833713669

    To aid Syrian war victims
    Not her call to make. You may assign the most admirable motives imaginable, but she was negotiating with a foreign power without the knowledge of her superiors or the Ambassador.
    That is a clear breach of Ministerial Code.
    By contrast, Boris is guilty of only being unprepared and winging it.
    Fallon of being a bit creepy.
    Only one has gone.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,336
    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I do admire the irony of the electorate denying Theresa May the majority she needed to be able to negotiate effectively with the EU, and then complaining that she won't get a good deal.

    Theresa May denied herself a majority, not the electorate.
    The electorate had more than a passing influence in the matter!
    If only she hadn't called that snap election.

    I wonder what Gordon Brown's autobiography says about the snap election of 2007.
    He might have got the 42% and 318 seats May got rather than the abysmal 29% and 258 seats he did get 3 years later you mean?
    Nope, like Mrs May, Gordon Brown dabbling with a snap election (or therein) despite repeated denials that they would do such a thing damaged them both, and neither of the Premierships ever really recovered.

    Most sensible people acknowledge Mrs May was damaged by the events of June 8th.
    Wrong. Mrs May has secured her place in the history books with the highest Tory voteshare in 34 years and the second highest number of Tory seats in 25 years. Even if she did not do as well as hoped.

    By failing to call a snap election history will record Brown got the second lowest Labour voteshare since WW2 and the lowest number of Labour seats for 23 years until Ed Miliband won even fewer in 2015. Even Corbyn outperformed Brown.
    Simple question.

    Do you think Mrs May was enhanced by the result on June 8th?

    A simple Yes or No will do.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    She should have quit in the weekend after the election she called to get a mandate for her approach to Brexit.

    The default assumption with TMay must that any big decision she makes is going to be wrong.

    I tend to agree. Even so, effectively negotiating Brexit as a minority government would be near-impossible for any PM. It was a catastrophic election result in the circumstances.
    I doubt it would have been any easier if she had won a majority. She had already thrown away her only important negotiating card when she triggered article 50. And her rhetoric before the election was calculated to alienate the EU and make it less likely they would offer a good deal.

    The EU wants to see the UK suffer - the official line might be that this is not a punishment process but that is not the reality. We can either crash out without a deal which will have devastating economic consequences far worse than anything suggested by project fear or we can accept their terms for a transitional deal. These will be pretty much a continuation of the UK's participation in the economic structure, including budget contributions, ECJ and the four freedoms, without any say in the political structure.

    Either of these options will be humiliating, costly and a million miles from the world promised by the leave campaign. But the EU holds all the cards. If May had a majority it might have been easier for her to make the required concessions but they would still have had to be made.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,108
    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I do admire the irony of the electorate denying Theresa May the majority she needed to be able to negotiate effectively with the EU, and then complaining that she won't get a good deal.

    Theresa May denied herself a majority, not the electorate.
    The electorate had more than a passing influence in the matter!
    If only she hadn't called that snap election.

    I wonder what Gordon Brown's autobiography says about the snap election of 2007.
    He might have got the 42% and 318 seats May got rather than the abysmal 29% and 258 seats he did get 3 years later you mean?
    Nope, like Mrs May, Gordon Brown dabbling with a snap election (or therein) despite repeated denials that they would do such a thing damaged them both, and neither of the Premierships ever really recovered.

    Most sensible people acknowledge Mrs May was damaged by the events of June 8th.
    Wrong. Mrs May has secured her place in the history books with the highest Tory voteshare in 34 years and the second highest number of Tory seats in 25 years. Even if she did not do as well as hoped.

    By failing to call a snap election history will record Brown got the second lowest Labour voteshare since WW2 and the lowest number of Labour seats for 23 years until Ed Miliband won even fewer in 2015. Even Corbyn outperformed Brown.
    Giving Mohammed Saeed al-Sahaf a run for his money.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,355
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I do admire the irony of the electorate denying Theresa May the majority she needed to be able to negotiate effectively with the EU, and then complaining that she won't get a good deal.

    Theresa May denied herself a majority, not the electorate.
    The electorate had more than a passing influence in the matter!
    If only she hadn't called that snap election.

    I wonder what Gordon Brown's autobiography says about the snap election of 2007.
    He might have got the 42% and 318 seats May got rather than the abysmal 29% and 258 seats he did get 3 years later you mean?
    Nope, like Mrs May, Gordon Brown dabbling with a snap election (or therein) despite repeated denials that they would do such a thing damaged them both, and neither of the Premierships ever really recovered.

    Most sensible people acknowledge Mrs May was damaged by the events of June 8th.
    Wrong. Mrs May has secured her place in the history books with the highest Tory voteshare in 34 years and the second highest number of Tory seats in 25 years. Even if she did not do as well as hoped.

    By failing to call a snap election history will record Brown got the second lowest Labour voteshare since WW2 and the lowest number of Labour seats for 23 years until Ed Miliband won even fewer in 2015. Even Corbyn outperformed Brown.
    Simple question.

    Do you think Mrs May was enhanced by the result on June 8th?

    A simple Yes or No will do.
    YES.

    SURVIVAL IS VICTORY
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,336
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I do admire the irony of the electorate denying Theresa May the majority she needed to be able to negotiate effectively with the EU, and then complaining that she won't get a good deal.

    Theresa May denied herself a majority, not the electorate.
    The electorate had more than a passing influence in the matter!
    If only she hadn't called that snap election.

    I wonder what Gordon Brown's autobiography says about the snap election of 2007.
    He might have got the 42% and 318 seats May got rather than the abysmal 29% and 258 seats he did get 3 years later you mean?
    Nope, like Mrs May, Gordon Brown dabbling with a snap election (or therein) despite repeated denials that they would do such a thing damaged them both, and neither of the Premierships ever really recovered.

    Most sensible people acknowledge Mrs May was damaged by the events of June 8th.
    Wrong. Mrs May has secured her place in the history books with the highest Tory voteshare in 34 years and the second highest number of Tory seats in 25 years. Even if she did not do as well as hoped.

    By failing to call a snap election history will record Brown got the second lowest Labour voteshare since WW2 and the lowest number of Labour seats for 23 years until Ed Miliband won even fewer in 2015. Even Corbyn outperformed Brown.
    Giving Mohammed Saeed al-Sahaf a run for his money.
    image
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,609
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I do admire the irony of the electorate denying Theresa May the majority she needed to be able to negotiate effectively with the EU, and then complaining that she won't get a good deal.

    Theresa May denied herself a majority, not the electorate.
    The electorate had more than a passing influence in the matter!
    If only she hadn't called that snap election.

    I wonder what Gordon Brown's autobiography says about the snap election of 2007.
    He might have got the 42% and 318 seats May got rather than the abysmal 29% and 258 seats he did get 3 years later you mean?
    Nope, like Mrs May, Gordon Brown dabbling with a snap election (or therein) despite repeated denials that they would do such a thing damaged them both, and neither of the Premierships ever really recovered.

    Most sensible people acknowledge Mrs May was damaged by the events of June 8th.
    Wrong. Mrs May has secured her place in the history books with the highest Tory voteshare in 34 years and the second highest number of Tory seats in 25 years. Even if she did not do as well as hoped.

    By failing to call a snap election history will record Brown got the second lowest Labour voteshare since WW2 and the lowest number of Labour seats for 23 years until Ed Miliband won even fewer in 2015. Even Corbyn outperformed Brown.
    Simple question.

    Do you think Mrs May was enhanced by the result on June 8th?

    A simple Yes or No will do.
    In the sense that she did better than she likely would have done in a general election in 2020 yes she was in historical terms.

    Brown's failure to call a snap general election in 2007, which would also have been pre crash, meant his election record will be recorded for posterity in the history books as far worse than it could have been.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,355
    edited November 2017
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I do admire the irony of the electorate denying Theresa May the majority she needed to be able to negotiate effectively with the EU, and then complaining that she won't get a good deal.

    Theresa May denied herself a majority, not the electorate.
    The electorate had more than a passing influence in the matter!
    If only she hadn't called that snap election.

    I wonder what Gordon Brown's autobiography says about the snap election of 2007.
    He might have got the 42% and 318 seats May got rather than the abysmal 29% and 258 seats he did get 3 years later you mean?
    Nope, like Mrs May, Gordon Brown dabbling with a snap election (or therein) despite repeated denials that they would do such a thing damaged them both, and neither of the Premierships ever really recovered.

    Most sensible people acknowledge Mrs May was damaged by the events of June 8th.
    Wrong. Mrs May has secured her place in the history books with the highest Tory voteshare in 34 years and the second highest number of Tory seats in 25 years. Even if she did not do as well as hoped.

    By failing to call a snap election history will record Brown got the second lowest Labour voteshare since WW2 and the lowest number of Labour seats for 23 years until Ed Miliband won even fewer in 2015. Even Corbyn outperformed Brown.
    Giving Mohammed Saeed al-Sahaf a run for his money.
    image
    Committing suicide? Like when Arvel Crynyd crashed his A-wing into the star destroyer "Executor's" bridge?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,336
    edited November 2017
    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I do admire the irony of the electorate denying Theresa May the majority she needed to be able to negotiate effectively with the EU, and then complaining that she won't get a good deal.

    Theresa May denied herself a majority, not the electorate.
    The electorate had more than a passing influence in the matter!
    If only she hadn't called that snap election.

    I wonder what Gordon Brown's autobiography says about the snap election of 2007.
    He might have got the 42% and 318 seats May got rather than the abysmal 29% and 258 seats he did get 3 years later you mean?
    Nope, like Mrs May, Gordon Brown dabbling with a snap election (or therein) despite repeated denials that they would do such a thing damaged them both, and neither of the Premierships ever really recovered.

    Most sensible people acknowledge Mrs May was damaged by the events of June 8th.
    Wrong. Mrs May has secured her place in the history books with the highest Tory voteshare in 34 years and the second highest number of Tory seats in 25 years. Even if she did not do as well as hoped.

    By failing to call a snap election history will record Brown got the second lowest Labour voteshare since WW2 and the lowest number of Labour seats for 23 years until Ed Miliband won even fewer in 2015. Even Corbyn outperformed Brown.
    Simple question.

    Do you think Mrs May was enhanced by the result on June 8th?

    A simple Yes or No will do.
    In the sense that she did better than she likely would have done in a general election in 2020 yes she was in historical terms.

    Brown's failure to call a snap general election in 2007, which would also have been pre crash, meant his election record will be recorded for posterity in the history books as far worse than it could have been.
    image
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,609
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/polhomeeditor/status/927941393833713669

    To aid Syrian war victims
    Not her call to make. You may assign the most admirable motives imaginable, but she was negotiating with a foreign power without the knowledge of her superiors or the Ambassador.
    That is a clear breach of Ministerial Code.
    By contrast, Boris is guilty of only being unprepared and winging it.
    Fallon of being a bit creepy.
    Only one has gone.
    She is the Secretary of State for International Development, as much a Cabinet Minister as Boris is and it fell within her remit.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/johnrentoul/status/927947706529714179
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,820
    The decline in people confident we will get a good deal is precipitous. Now crossing over with the 'don't knows'...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,609
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I do admire the irony of the electorate denying Theresa May the majority she needed to be able to negotiate effectively with the EU, and then complaining that she won't get a good deal.

    Theresa May denied herself a majority, not the electorate.
    The electorate had more than a passing influence in the matter!
    If only she hadn't called that snap election.

    I wonder what Gordon Brown's autobiography says about the snap election of 2007.
    He might have got the 42% and 318 seats May got rather than the abysmal 29% and 258 seats he did get 3 years later you mean?
    Nope, like Mrs May, Gordon Brown dabbling with a snap election (or therein) despite repeated denials that they would do such a thing damaged them both, and neither of the Premierships ever really recovered.

    Most sensible people acknowledge Mrs May was damaged by the events of June 8th.
    Wrong. Mrs May has secured her place in the history books with the highest Tory voteshare in 34 years and the second highest number of Tory seats in 25 years. Even if she did not do as well as hoped.

    By failing to call a snap election history will record Brown got the second lowest Labour voteshare since WW2 and the lowest number of Labour seats for 23 years until Ed Miliband won even fewer in 2015. Even Corbyn outperformed Brown.
    Simple question.

    Do you think Mrs May was enhanced by the result on June 8th?

    A simple Yes or No will do.
    In the sense that she did better than she likely would have done in a general election in 2020 yes she was in historical terms.

    Brown's failure to call a snap general election in 2007, which would also have been pre crash, meant his election record will be recorded for posterity in the history books as far worse than it could have been.
    image
    Napoleon lost at Waterloo, May won most seats in 2017 and most votes.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    HYUFD said:

    She is the Secretary of State for International Development, as much a Cabinet Minister as Boris

    True
    HYUFD said:

    and it fell within her remit.

    Not so much
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,879
    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I do admire the irony of the electorate denying Theresa May the majority she needed to be able to negotiate effectively with the EU, and then complaining that she won't get a good deal.

    Theresa May denied herself a majority, not the electorate.
    The electorate had more than a passing influence in the matter!
    If only she hadn't called that snap election.

    I wonder what Gordon Brown's autobiography says about the snap election of 2007.
    He might have got the 42% and 318 seats May got rather than the abysmal 29% and 258 seats he did get 3 years later you mean?
    Nope, like Mrs May, Gordon Brown dabbling with a snap election (or therein) despite repeated denials that they would do such a thing damaged them both, and neither of the Premierships ever really recovered.

    Most sensible people acknowledge Mrs May was damaged by the events of June 8th.
    Wrong. Mrs May has secured her place in the history books with the highest Tory voteshare in 34 years and the second highest number of Tory seats in 25 years. Even if she did not do as well as hoped.

    By failing to call a snap election history will record Brown got the second lowest Labour voteshare since WW2 and the lowest number of Labour seats for 23 years until Ed Miliband won even fewer in 2015. Even Corbyn outperformed Brown.
    Simple question.

    Do you think Mrs May was enhanced by the result on June 8th?

    A simple Yes or No will do.
    In the sense that she did better than she likely would have done in a general election in 2020 yes she was in historical terms.

    Brown's failure to call a snap general election in 2007, which would also have been pre crash, meant his election record will be recorded for posterity in the history books as far worse than it could have been.
    You are Boris Johnson and I clain my £5
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    edited November 2017
    An MP committing suicide was so inevitable.....

    Couldn't Boris have done the decent thing.....
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/iandunt/status/927948101666697217
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,609
    edited November 2017
    williamglenn said:

    The decline in people confident we will get a good deal is precipitous. Now crossing over with the 'don't knows'...

    What is 'a good deal'? For most Leavers it is leaving the EU with a FTA and ending free movement and replacing it with a points system and ideally paying as little money as possible to the EU.

    For Remainers 'a good deal' is leaving free movement in place in order to retain membership of the single market.

    Nobody will be entirely happy whatever the deal that is agreed.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @GuardianHeather: May's spokesman also unable to say when/whether the PM had learned of the idea that Patel had discussed providing UK aid to Israeli army.

    @GuardianHeather: “As to whether or not we ever had a specific conversation about that particular aspect of foreign aid – it may well be that we didn’t".
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Scott_P said:

    //twitter.com/iandunt/status/927948101666697217

    We no longer have anything resembling a coherent British foreign policy


    I guess he wasn't around during the fiascos of the last Labour administration.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/927943166149431296
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,504
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/iandunt/status/927948101666697217

    Political scientists will spend decades analysing the total collapse of functioning government since May was sort of re-elected.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,609
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/iandunt/status/927948101666697217

    Or we have a Foreign policy which is no longer explicitly pro EU and anti Israel and left liberals can't stand it!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,879
    MarkHopkins said:

    Scott_P said:

    //twitter.com/iandunt/status/927948101666697217

    We no longer have anything resembling a coherent British foreign policy


    I guess he wasn't around during the fiascos of the last Labour administration.

    Robin Cook was good ..... 1997 Administration ...... and after that, IIRC Hague.

    We (fairly) recently lost three Scots before their time; John Smith, Robin Cook and Charles Kennedy.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,720
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    She should have quit in the weekend after the election she called to get a mandate for her approach to Brexit.

    The default assumption with TMay must that any big decision she makes is going to be wrong.

    I tend to agree. Even so, effectively negotiating Brexit as a minority government would be near-impossible for any PM. It was a catastrophic election result in the circumstances.
    If she and her MP's had any sense of purpose, they could do it. With DUP backing on major issues, the government has an effective majority similar to Churchill's in 1951.

    But, we have a PM who plainly doesn't want the job, or have any idea what she's doing in office.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,355
    edited November 2017
    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I do admire the irony of the electorate denying Theresa May the majority she needed to be able to negotiate effectively with the EU, and then complaining that she won't get a good deal.

    Theresa May denied herself a majority, not the electorate.
    The electorate had more than a passing influence in the matter!
    If only she hadn't called that snap election.

    I wonder what Gordon Brown's autobiography says about the snap election of 2007.
    He might have got the 42% and 318 seats May got rather than the abysmal 29% and 258 seats he did get 3 years later you mean?
    Nope, like Mrs May, Gordon Brown dabbling with a snap election (or therein) despite repeated denials that they would do such a thing damaged them both, and neither of the Premierships ever really recovered.

    Most sensible people acknowledge Mrs May was damaged by the events of June 8th.
    Wrong. Mrs May has secured her place in the history books with the highest Tory voteshare in 34 years and the second highest number of Tory seats in 25 years. Even if she did not do as well as hoped.

    By failing to call a snap election history will record Brown got the second lowest Labour voteshare since WW2 and the lowest number of Labour seats for 23 years until Ed Miliband won even fewer in 2015. Even Corbyn outperformed Brown.
    Simple question.

    Do you think Mrs May was enhanced by the result on June 8th?

    A simple Yes or No will do.
    In the sense that she did better than she likely would have done in a general election in 2020 yes she was in historical terms.

    Brown's failure to call a snap general election in 2007, which would also have been pre crash, meant his election record will be recorded for posterity in the history books as far worse than it could have been.
    image
    Napoleon lost at Waterloo, May won most seats in 2017 and most votes.
    I think TSE may be referring to Wavre, the same day as Waterloo, and France's last victory in 1815 campaign.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    MarkHopkins said:

    Scott_P said:

    //twitter.com/iandunt/status/927948101666697217

    We no longer have anything resembling a coherent British foreign policy


    I guess he wasn't around during the fiascos of the last Labour administration.

    But they were coherent fiascos, supported by both government and parliament. And everyone knew where we were going, even if we didn't want to get there.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    HYUFD said:

    Or we have a Foreign policy which is no longer explicitly pro EU and anti Israel and left liberals can't stand it!

    You really think funding the Israeli army is UK Government policy now?

    Wow
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/iandunt/status/927948101666697217

    Or we have a Foreign policy which is no longer explicitly pro EU and anti Israel and left liberals can't stand it!
    Were you really a failed Tory candidate at the last election or was that just Mark's sense of humour?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/telegraph/status/927952189640904705
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Ishmael_Z said:

    OK Wegenerbois, answer this one:

    "Portugal is part of Europe" is

    A. True.
    B. False.

    Think carefully.

    Too difficult, obv.

    Is this easier?

    "Portugal is part of Europe" is

    A. True.
    B. False.
    C. Yebbut.

    Take your time.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I do admire the irony of the electorate denying Theresa May the majority she needed to be able to negotiate effectively with the EU, and then complaining that she won't get a good deal.

    Theresa May denied herself a majority, not the electorate.
    The electorate had more than a passing influence in the matter!
    If only she hadn't called that snap election.

    I wonder what Gordon Brown's autobiography says about the snap election of 2007.
    He might have got the 42% and 318 seats May got rather than the abysmal 29% and 258 seats he did get 3 years later you mean?
    Nope, like Mrs May, Gordon Brown dabbling with a snap election (or therein) despite repeated denials that they would do such a thing damaged them both, and neither of the Premierships ever really recovered.

    Most sensible people acknowledge Mrs May was damaged by the events of June 8th.
    Wrong. Mrs May has secured her place in the history books with the highest Tory voteshare in 34 years and the second highest number of Tory seats in 25 years. Even if she did not do as well as hoped.

    By failing to call a snap election history will record Brown got the second lowest Labour voteshare since WW2 and the lowest number of Labour seats for 23 years until Ed Miliband won even fewer in 2015. Even Corbyn outperformed Brown.
    Simple question.

    Do you think Mrs May was enhanced by the result on June 8th?

    A simple Yes or No will do.
    In the sense that she did better than she likely would have done in a general election in 2020 yes she was in historical terms.

    Brown's failure to call a snap general election in 2007, which would also have been pre crash, meant his election record will be recorded for posterity in the history books as far worse than it could have been.
    image
    Napoleon lost at Waterloo, May won most seats in 2017 and most votes.
    I think TSE may be referring to Wavre, the same day as Waterloo, and France's last victory in 1815 campaign.
    He's more likely referring to something a little like this:

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/How-French-Won-Waterloo-Think/dp/1780893086
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    Incidentally, I still find it amazing that grown men are arguing about this.

    May won. There is literally no doubt about that - she won the most seats, most votes and has enough support to get a Queens' speech through. That she permanently and fatally damaged her standing to achieve that victory will always overshadow it and, indeed, her.

    There is a very famous saying in our language that covers this precise scenario. Can we just start using that instead of shitposting over and over and over.

    Please.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    edited November 2017
    If Prity Patel doesn't resign it will be a miracle. Even by the shoddy standards of this government she surely has no chance of remaining in office. She should be in a race with Boris but being junior and her offence being much more serious it's bound to be her.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,879
    BannedInParis said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I do admire the irony of the electorate denying Theresa May the majority she needed to be able to negotiate effectively with the EU, and then complaining that she won't get a good deal.

    Theresa May denied herself a majority, not the electorate.
    The electorate had more than a passing influence in the matter!
    If only she hadn't called that snap election.

    I wonder what Gordon Brown's autobiography says about the snap election of 2007.
    He might have got the 42% and 318 seats May got rather than the abysmal 29% and 258 seats he did get 3 years later you mean?
    Nope, like Mrs May, Gordon Brown dabbling with a snap election (or therein) despite repeated denials that they would do such a thing damaged them both, and neither of the Premierships ever really recovered.

    Most sensible people acknowledge Mrs May was damaged by the events of June 8th.
    Wrong. Mrs May has secured her place in the history books with the highest Tory voteshare in 34 years and the second highest number of Tory seats in 25 years. Even if she did not do as well as hoped.

    By failing to call a snap election history will record Brown got the second lowest Labour voteshare since WW2 and the lowest number of Labour seats for 23 years until Ed Miliband won even fewer in 2015. Even Corbyn outperformed Brown.
    Simple question.

    Do you think Mrs May was enhanced by the result on June 8th?

    A simple Yes or No will do.

    Brown's failure to call a snap general election in 2007, which would also have been pre crash, meant his election record will be recorded for posterity in the history books as far worse than it could have been.
    image
    Napoleon lost at Waterloo, May won most seats in 2017 and most votes.
    I think TSE may be referring to Wavre, the same day as Waterloo, and France's last victory in 1815 campaign.
    He's more likely referring to something a little like this:

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/How-French-Won-Waterloo-Think/dp/1780893086
    You couldn't call Dunkirk a victory, could you. Greatest ever Escape, maybe.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,518
    Sad to hear the news about Carl Sargeant.

    With all the allegations about lots of people flying around at the moment, it’s sadly unsurprising to hear that someone has taken that option.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,609
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I do admire the irony of the electorate denying Theresa May the majority she needed to be able to negotiate effectively with the EU, and then complaining that she won't get a good deal.

    Theresa May denied herself a majority, not the electorate.
    The electorate had more than a passing influence in the matter!
    If only she hadn't called that snap election.

    I wonder what Gordon Brown's autobiography says about the snap election of 2007.
    He might have got the 42% and 318 seats May got rather than the abysmal 29% and 258 seats he did get 3 years later you mean?
    Nope, like Mrs May, Gordon Brown dabbling with a snap election (or therein) despite repeated denials that they would do such a thing damaged them both, and neither of the Premierships ever really recovered.

    Most sensible people acknowledge Mrs May was damaged by the events of June 8th.
    Wrong. Mrs May has secured her place in the history books with the highest Tory voteshare in 34 years and the second highest number of Tory seats in 25 years. Even if she did not do as well as hoped.

    By failing to call a snap election history will record Brown got the second lowest Labour voteshare since WW2 and the lowest number of Labour seats for 23 years until Ed Miliband won even fewer in 2015. Even Corbyn outperformed Brown.
    Simple question.

    Do you think Mrs May was enhanced by the result on June 8th?

    A simple Yes or No will do.
    In the sense that she did better than she likely would have done in a general election in 2020 yes she was in historical terms.

    Brown's failure to call a snap general election in 2007, which would also have been pre crash, meant his election record will be recorded for posterity in the history books as far worse than it could have been.
    image
    Napoleon lost at Waterloo, May won most seats in 2017 and most votes.
    I think TSE may be referring to Wavre, the same day as Waterloo, and France's last victory in 1815 campaign.
    I think that sounds more appropriate, yes
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,355
    BannedInParis said:

    Incidentally, I still find it amazing that grown men are arguing about this.

    May won. There is literally no doubt about that - she won the most seats, most votes and has enough support to get a Queens' speech through. That she permanently and fatally damaged her standing to achieve that victory will always overshadow it and, indeed, her.

    There is a very famous saying in our language that covers this precise scenario. Can we just start using that instead of shitposting over and over and over.

    Please.

    It was Mohammed al Sahaf who drew up the original version of these graphs - I just posted them on Twitter :)

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/876894066478329857
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,737
    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I do admire the irony of the electorate denying Theresa May the majority she needed to be able to negotiate effectively with the EU, and then complaining that she won't get a good deal.

    Theresa May denied herself a majority, not the electorate.
    The electorate had more than a passing influence in the matter!
    If only she hadn't called that snap election.

    I wonder what Gordon Brown's autobiography says about the snap election of 2007.
    He might have got the 42% and 318 seats May got rather than the abysmal 29% and 258 seats he did get 3 years later you mean?
    Nope, like Mrs May, Gordon Brown dabbling with a snap election (or therein) despite repeated denials that they would do such a thing damaged them both, and neither of the Premierships ever really recovered.

    Most sensible people acknowledge Mrs May was damaged by the events of June 8th.
    Wrong. Mrs May has secured her place in the history books with the highest Tory voteshare in 34 years and the second highest number of Tory seats in 25 years. Even if she did not do as well as hoped.

    By failing to call a snap election history will record Brown got the second lowest Labour voteshare since WW2 and the lowest number of Labour seats for 23 years until Ed Miliband won even fewer in 2015. Even Corbyn outperformed Brown.

    I doubt Theresa May will be remembered for getting the highest Tory vote share in 25 years. At best, that will be a footnote.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,609
    Scott_P said:

    HYUFD said:

    Or we have a Foreign policy which is no longer explicitly pro EU and anti Israel and left liberals can't stand it!

    You really think funding the Israeli army is UK Government policy now?

    Wow
    Actually aid to Syrian civil war victims supplied by the Israeli army
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    Sean_F said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    She should have quit in the weekend after the election she called to get a mandate for her approach to Brexit.

    The default assumption with TMay must that any big decision she makes is going to be wrong.

    I tend to agree. Even so, effectively negotiating Brexit as a minority government would be near-impossible for any PM. It was a catastrophic election result in the circumstances.
    If she and her MP's had any sense of purpose, they could do it. With DUP backing on major issues, the government has an effective majority similar to Churchill's in 1951.

    But, we have a PM who plainly doesn't want the job, or have any idea what she's doing in office.
    Who is only staying in office because her party fears that the strain of a leadership election would test it to destruction.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,609
    edited November 2017
    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/iandunt/status/927948101666697217

    Or we have a Foreign policy which is no longer explicitly pro EU and anti Israel and left liberals can't stand it!
    Were you really a failed Tory candidate at the last election or was that just Mark's sense of humour?
    I increased the Tory voteshare in a town council by election in August relative to the 2016 local election result in the same ward even though I did not win yes and am on the list for the district elections next year, I have never stood in a general election.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,518
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:

    HYUFD said:

    Or we have a Foreign policy which is no longer explicitly pro EU and anti Israel and left liberals can't stand it!

    You really think funding the Israeli army is UK Government policy now?

    Wow
    Actually aid to Syrian civil war victims supplied by the Israeli army
    And explicitly stated to be NOT Govt policy in the Hof C today.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,609
    SouthamObserver said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I do admire the irony of the electorate denying Theresa May the majority she needed to be able to negotiate effectively with the EU, and then complaining that she won't get a good deal.

    Theresa May denied herself a majority, not the electorate.
    The electorate had more than a passing influence in the matter!
    If only she hadn't called that snap election.

    I wonder what Gordon Brown's autobiography says about the snap election of 2007.
    He might have got the 42% and 318 seats May got rather than the abysmal 29% and 258 seats he did get 3 years later you mean?
    Nope, like Mrs May, Gordon Brown dabbling with a snap election (or therein) despite repeated denials that they would do such a thing damaged them both, and neither of the Premierships ever really recovered.

    Most sensible people acknowledge Mrs May was damaged by the events of June 8th.
    Wrong. Mrs May has secured her place in the history books with the highest Tory voteshare in 34 years and the second highest number of Tory seats in 25 years. Even if she did not do as well as hoped.

    By failing to call a snap election history will record Brown got the second lowest Labour voteshare since WW2 and the lowest number of Labour seats for 23 years until Ed Miliband won even fewer in 2015. Even Corbyn outperformed Brown.

    I doubt Theresa May will be remembered for getting the highest Tory vote share in 25 years. At best, that will be a footnote.

    A significant footnote nonetheless
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    David Goodhart has been getting a hard time on twitter today about his Somewheres/Anywheres divide from the political scientists.
  • PeterMannionPeterMannion Posts: 712
    Roger said:

    If Prity Patel doesn't resign it will be a miracle. Even by the shoddy standards of this government she surely has no chance of remaining in office. She should be in a race with Boris but being junior and her offence being much more serious it's bound to be her.

    She won't resign and May won't sack her...
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    HYUFD said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I do admire the irony of the electorate denying Theresa May the majority she needed to be able to negotiate effectively with the EU, and then complaining that she won't get a good deal.

    Theresa May denied herself a majority, not the electorate.
    The electorate had more than a passing influence in the matter!
    If only she hadn't called that snap election.

    I wonder what Gordon Brown's autobiography says about the snap election of 2007.
    He might have got the 42% and 318 seats May got rather than the abysmal 29% and 258 seats he did get 3 years later you mean?
    Nope, like Mrs May, Gordon Brown dabbling with a snap election (or therein) despite repeated denials that they would do such a thing damaged them both, and neither of the Premierships ever really recovered.

    Most sensible people acknowledge Mrs May was damaged by the events of June 8th.
    Wrong. Mrs May has secured her place in the history books with the highest Tory voteshare in 34 years and the second highest number of Tory seats in 25 years. Even if she did not do as well as hoped.

    By failing to call a snap election history will record Brown got the second lowest Labour voteshare since WW2 and the lowest number of Labour seats for 23 years until Ed Miliband won even fewer in 2015. Even Corbyn outperformed Brown.

    I doubt Theresa May will be remembered for getting the highest Tory vote share in 25 years. At best, that will be a footnote.

    A significant footnote nonetheless
    Still bollocks and very tedious when you ignore one simple fact. CON increased vote share by 5.8% at GE17 - alas LAB went up 9.8%

  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    PeterMannion said:

    Roger said:

    If Prity Patel doesn't resign it will be a miracle. Even by the shoddy standards of this government she surely has no chance of remaining in office. She should be in a race with Boris but being junior and her offence being much more serious it's bound to be her.

    She won't resign and May won't sack her...
    am I missing something here? She offered funding for hospitals for providing medical services to refugees, and the catch is simply that the hospitals happen to be run by the army? isn't that a bit pathetic?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,609
    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I do admire the irony of the electorate denying Theresa May the majority she needed to be able to negotiate effectively with the EU, and then complaining that she won't get a good deal.

    Theresa May denied herself a majority, not the electorate.
    The electorate had more than a passing influence in the matter!
    If only she hadn't called that snap election.

    I wonder what Gordon Brown's autobiography says about the snap election of 2007.
    He might have got the 42% and 318 seats May got rather than the abysmal 29% and 258 seats he did get 3 years later you mean?
    Nope, like Mrs May, Gordon Brown dabbling with a snap election (or therein) despite repeated denials that they would do such a thing damaged them both, and neither of the Premierships ever really recovered.

    Most sensible people acknowledge Mrs May was damaged by the events of June 8th.
    Wrong. Mrs May has secured her place in the history books with the highest Tory voteshare in 34 years and the second highest number of Tory seats in 25 years. Even if she did not do as well as hoped.

    By failing to call a snap election history will record Brown got the second lowest Labour voteshare since WW2 and the lowest number of Labour seats for 23 years until Ed Miliband won even fewer in 2015. Even Corbyn outperformed Brown.

    I doubt Theresa May will be remembered for getting the highest Tory vote share in 25 years. At best, that will be a footnote.

    A significant footnote nonetheless
    Still bollocks and very tedious when you ignore one simple fact. CON increased vote share by 5.8% at GE17 - alas LAB went up 9.8%

    Even on seats alone and completely ignoring voteshare, May got the 2nd highest number of Tory seats in 25 years
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,879
    Ishmael_Z said:

    PeterMannion said:

    Roger said:

    If Prity Patel doesn't resign it will be a miracle. Even by the shoddy standards of this government she surely has no chance of remaining in office. She should be in a race with Boris but being junior and her offence being much more serious it's bound to be her.

    She won't resign and May won't sack her...
    am I missing something here? She offered funding for hospitals for providing medical services to refugees, and the catch is simply that the hospitals happen to be run by the army? isn't that a bit pathetic?
    So the resources supplied can enable the Israeli Army to use the cost of them elsewhere.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,287
    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I do admire the irony of the electorate denying Theresa May the majority she needed to be able to negotiate effectively with the EU, and then complaining that she won't get a good deal.

    Theresa May denied herself a majority, not the electorate.
    The electorate had more than a passing influence in the matter!
    If only she hadn't called that snap election.

    I wonder what Gordon Brown's autobiography says about the snap election of 2007.
    He might have got the 42% and 318 seats May got rather than the abysmal 29% and 258 seats he did get 3 years later you mean?
    Nope, like Mrs May, Gordon Brown dabbling with a snap election (or therein) despite repeated denials that they would do such a thing damaged them both, and neither of the Premierships ever really recovered.

    Most sensible people acknowledge Mrs May was damaged by the events of June 8th.
    Wrong. Mrs May has secured her place in the history books with the highest Tory voteshare in 34 years and the second highest number of Tory seats in 25 years. Even if she did not do as well as hoped.

    By failing to call a snap election history will record Brown got the second lowest Labour voteshare since WW2 and the lowest number of Labour seats for 23 years until Ed Miliband won even fewer in 2015. Even Corbyn outperformed Brown.

    I doubt Theresa May will be remembered for getting the highest Tory vote share in 25 years. At best, that will be a footnote.

    A significant footnote nonetheless
    Still bollocks and very tedious when you ignore one simple fact. CON increased vote share by 5.8% at GE17 - alas LAB went up 9.8%

    Even on seats alone and completely ignoring voteshare, May got the 2nd highest number of Tory seats in 25 years
    Most of this is more of a comment about the falling away of a third party challenge in England, for the first time since 1970, than it is of particular credit to either Tory or Labour.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/iandunt/status/927948101666697217

    Or we have a Foreign policy which is no longer explicitly pro EU and anti Israel and left liberals can't stand it!
    Were you really a failed Tory candidate at the last election or was that just Mark's sense of humour?
    I increased the Tory voteshare in a town council by election in August relative to the 2016 local election result in the same ward even though I did not win yes and am on the list for the district elections next year, I have never stood in a general election.
    Well good luck HYFUD , you always fight your corner with politeness.
This discussion has been closed.