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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The PB Cynic’s Dictionary especially complied for the times

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    Should France embrace gender-neutral words? Bien sur!

    The French Academy is railing against moves towards a gender-neutral style, but language always blends and changes without any loss of expressive power.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/shortcuts/2017/nov/06/france-embrace-gender-neutral-language-academy?CMP=twt_gu


    He said, she said.

    They said, they said.

    "It said" is gender neutral.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,774
    TOPPING said:

    Lis' pt. 32 is the one I would be looking at if I were in govt. Extend A50 for a year or two. Still time before the GE and the pressure is lifted and we can make amends for the false start we have had these past few months.

    Exit in 2021, in triumph, and fight tooth and nail at GE2022.

    Lab meanwhile would have nowhere to go because "we are taking more time to get it right" can only be countered by "why aren't we leaving more quickly" which I think Lab would have a big problem espousing.

    It's risky but the least bad option for the country I can see atm.

    It seems a full transition arrangement is legally tricky for the EU. Extending A50 is the only kosher way of doing it. It needs the unanimous agreement of the other 27 member states, each and every one of whom will demand their pound of flesh. 27 pounds of flesh.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    edited November 2017

    Should France embrace gender-neutral words? Bien sur!

    The French Academy is railing against moves towards a gender-neutral style, but language always blends and changes without any loss of expressive power.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/shortcuts/2017/nov/06/france-embrace-gender-neutral-language-academy?CMP=twt_gu


    He said, she said.

    They said, they said.

    "It said" is gender neutral.
    There is about 30 different sets of gender neutral pronouns.....R5 interviewed an individual, born as a woman, now identifying as neither, who would only respond to sentencies with "they" as the pronoun to address "they".

    When challenged that they is plural, they went off the deep end.
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    Scott_P said:

    But just imagine the forces that would be unleashed in a Tory leadership contest. The candidates would fall over themselves to trash the EU in order to appeal to the dinosaurs in the constituencies. The talks would be over, hard Brexit would become unavoidable, the DUP could well decide that it was time to abandon the sinking ship and it's by no means clear that the eventual victor could command a majority in the Commons.

    And that is different from now, how exactly?

    Tezza falls over herself to criticise the EU in order to appeal to the dinosaurs in the constituencies.

    The talks are nearly over, hard Brexit is probably unavoidable

    And it's by no means clear she could command a majority in the Commons for any concrete proposals.
    TM will not hard Brexit
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    VA State races.

    Over the weekend, all 9 published polls went for Dem Northam over GOP Gillespie, but by margins of just 1% to 6%, with one outlier at 9%.

    I think this makes it too close to call and I do not think that looking at past voter performances helps that much either. Each election seems to be sui generis these days. But I think the case for this one being more equal than the others is strong - we frankly have never had an election with a sitting President like Trump, and with so many incidents involving white on black killings featured prominently in the media over a very prolonged period. So traditional wisdom that low voter turnout favours the GOP may well be wrong (though it still may be right), as there are some reports that the black community in VA is extremely fired up about voting.

    Consequently, I will be surprised neither by Gillespie winning against the odds, nor by a Northam landslide, with a huge black turnout.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    TM will not hard Brexit

    Every speech she has ever given on Brexit says hard
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    Boris is Boris, isn’t he hilarious, really doesn’t cut it when his crass stupidity puts British citizens in direct peril. How can the PM possibly allow him to continue in a job he is clearly not fit to do?
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    If I was TM I would say I am going on a walk with Philip and the rest of you can just get on with it
    You do wonder how much more she can take.

    But just imagine the forces that would be unleashed in a Tory leadership contest. The candidates would fall over themselves to trash the EU in order to appeal to the dinosaurs in the constituencies. The talks would be over, hard Brexit would become unavoidable, the DUP could well decide that it was time to abandon the sinking ship and it's by no means clear that the eventual victor could command a majority in the Commons.
    As a member I would expect several candidates would stand and go through the hustings. The MP's would select the final two and as it stands now David Davis and JRM are possible and JRM could take the membership vote. Boris and Patel are not going to be in the frame, nor Leadsom
    The MPs are not going to nominate JRM, who has never been a minister. But today's news is good for other Leavers, as you suggest.

    FWIW, if the contest goes to the members I don't actually think we will vote strictly on Brexit lines. But it might be politic of the MPs to offer two Leavers to make sure of that (assuming Ruth hasn't found a way to stand).
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    Terry-Thomas had the right phrase for this government.
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    Scott_P said:

    But just imagine the forces that would be unleashed in a Tory leadership contest. The candidates would fall over themselves to trash the EU in order to appeal to the dinosaurs in the constituencies. The talks would be over, hard Brexit would become unavoidable, the DUP could well decide that it was time to abandon the sinking ship and it's by no means clear that the eventual victor could command a majority in the Commons.

    And that is different from now, how exactly?

    Tezza falls over herself to criticise the EU in order to appeal to the dinosaurs in the constituencies.

    The talks are nearly over, hard Brexit is probably unavoidable

    And it's by no means clear she could command a majority in the Commons for any concrete proposals.
    TM will not hard Brexit
    So how do you reconcile that with her 'No deal is better than a bad deal' mantra?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited November 2017

    Boris is Boris, isn’t he hilarious, really doesn’t cut it when his crass stupidity puts British citizens in direct peril. How can the PM possibly allow him to continue in a job he is clearly not fit to do?

    By sacrificing shame and good sense on the altar of Brexit
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,399

    Scott_P said:

    But just imagine the forces that would be unleashed in a Tory leadership contest. The candidates would fall over themselves to trash the EU in order to appeal to the dinosaurs in the constituencies. The talks would be over, hard Brexit would become unavoidable, the DUP could well decide that it was time to abandon the sinking ship and it's by no means clear that the eventual victor could command a majority in the Commons.

    And that is different from now, how exactly?

    Tezza falls over herself to criticise the EU in order to appeal to the dinosaurs in the constituencies.

    The talks are nearly over, hard Brexit is probably unavoidable

    And it's by no means clear she could command a majority in the Commons for any concrete proposals.
    TM will not hard Brexit
    So how do you reconcile that with her 'No deal is better than a bad deal' mantra?
    The biggest fallacy of recent times was that Tezza called the election so that an increased majority would mean she didn't have to listen to the Brexit loons. It was nothing of the sort; she wanted a bigger majority and she wanted a loon Brexit.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,119
    Scott_P said:

    TM will not hard Brexit

    Every speech she has ever given on Brexit says hard
    In the Orwellian doublespeak of Brexit, hard Brexit = no Brexit.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,119

    Scott_P said:

    But just imagine the forces that would be unleashed in a Tory leadership contest. The candidates would fall over themselves to trash the EU in order to appeal to the dinosaurs in the constituencies. The talks would be over, hard Brexit would become unavoidable, the DUP could well decide that it was time to abandon the sinking ship and it's by no means clear that the eventual victor could command a majority in the Commons.

    And that is different from now, how exactly?

    Tezza falls over herself to criticise the EU in order to appeal to the dinosaurs in the constituencies.

    The talks are nearly over, hard Brexit is probably unavoidable

    And it's by no means clear she could command a majority in the Commons for any concrete proposals.
    TM will not hard Brexit
    So how do you reconcile that with her 'No deal is better than a bad deal' mantra?
    No deal normally means the status quo. It does in this case too, but nobody is yet willing to say so.
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    Wikileaks founder Julian Assange has praised the Paradise Papers leak, from his quarters at the Ecuadorian embassy - but he suggested that the files hadn't been published widely enough.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,894
    edited November 2017
    I predicted a few months ago that Pritti Patel was likely to be next out. Today she's been shown to be another victim of the Foreign office back stabbers. This time I have to say deserved. 12 meetings with Netanyahu and associates without FO approval in the company of an Israeli lobbyist and claiming Boris knew about it which she has now admitted is a lie.

    If May doesn't sack her it'll be extraordinary.
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    Scott_P said:

    Boris is Boris, isn’t he hilarious, really doesn’t cut it when his crass stupidity puts British citizens in direct peril. How can the PM possibly allow him to continue in a job he is clearly not fit to do?

    By sacrificing shame and good sense on the altar of Brexit

    It is the most flagrant example possible of party before country. Of course, if Boris had even a shred of integrity he would resign. How can anyone consider him PM material?

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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @AllieHBNews: On Priti Patel's future in Cabinet, @BBCJLandale says - 'we have a fragile Govt & Mrs May will not want to lose another colleague'

    Too weak to govern.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,117
    MTimT said:

    VA State races.

    Over the weekend, all 9 published polls went for Dem Northam over GOP Gillespie, but by margins of just 1% to 6%, with one outlier at 9%.

    I think this makes it too close to call and I do not think that looking at past voter performances helps that much either. Each election seems to be sui generis these days. But I think the case for this one being more equal than the others is strong - we frankly have never had an election with a sitting President like Trump, and with so many incidents involving white on black killings featured prominently in the media over a very prolonged period. So traditional wisdom that low voter turnout favours the GOP may well be wrong (though it still may be right), as there are some reports that the black community in VA is extremely fired up about voting.

    Consequently, I will be surprised neither by Gillespie winning against the odds, nor by a Northam landslide, with a huge black turnout.

    Based on historical precedent for the VA and NJ governors races the year after the election of a nee President I expect the Dems to narrowly win VA but comfortably win NJ.
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    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578
    Scott_P said:

    But just imagine the forces that would be unleashed in a Tory leadership contest. The candidates would fall over themselves to trash the EU in order to appeal to the dinosaurs in the constituencies. The talks would be over, hard Brexit would become unavoidable, the DUP could well decide that it was time to abandon the sinking ship and it's by no means clear that the eventual victor could command a majority in the Commons.

    And that is different from now, how exactly?

    Tezza falls over herself to criticise the EU in order to appeal to the dinosaurs in the constituencies.

    The talks are nearly over, hard Brexit is probably unavoidable

    And it's by no means clear she could command a majority in the Commons for any concrete proposals.
    May has the DUP on board and she has some claim to an electoral mandate as leader of the largest party. A new Tory leader may not have either of those. And a leadership contest would be bitter and divisive - ultras on both sides might not accept the result. Would Anna Soubry agree to be led by JRM or Boris? And would Peter Bone and John Redwood agree to be led by Amber Rudd or Philip Hammond?
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Scott_P said:

    Thread...

    twitter.com/jonlis1/status/927551446186450944

    That looks like a very plausible account of EU thinking, and of how things might pan out.

    I remain mystified that the financial markets are so nonchalant about the risk.
    I would not worry about. Give them a few weeks and their view of it will soon clear up. :dizzy:
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,117
    edited November 2017
    Roger said:

    I predicted a few months ago that Pritti Patel was likely to be next out. Today she's been shown to be another victim of the Foreign office back stabbers. This time I have to say deserved. 12 meetings with Netanyahu and associates without FO approval in the company of an Israeli lobbyist and claiming Boris knew about it which she has now admitted is a lie.

    If May doesn't sack her it'll be extraordinary.

    May won't sack her as there are a lot of big Jewish donors to the party, Conservative Friends of Israel is influential and she knows the only way the Tories will hold Barnet next year in the London council elections is through the Jewish vote.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    May has the DUP on board

    Not really

    May suffers humiliation as DUP backs Labour on NHS pay and tuition fees

    Party propping up May’s minority government breaks with Tories for first time since election deal, voting to increase NHS workers’ pay and scrap tuition fee rise
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    Scott_P said:

    But just imagine the forces that would be unleashed in a Tory leadership contest. The candidates would fall over themselves to trash the EU in order to appeal to the dinosaurs in the constituencies. The talks would be over, hard Brexit would become unavoidable, the DUP could well decide that it was time to abandon the sinking ship and it's by no means clear that the eventual victor could command a majority in the Commons.

    And that is different from now, how exactly?

    Tezza falls over herself to criticise the EU in order to appeal to the dinosaurs in the constituencies.

    The talks are nearly over, hard Brexit is probably unavoidable

    And it's by no means clear she could command a majority in the Commons for any concrete proposals.
    May has the DUP on board and she has some claim to an electoral mandate as leader of the largest party. A new Tory leader may not have either of those. And a leadership contest would be bitter and divisive - ultras on both sides might not accept the result. Would Anna Soubry agree to be led by JRM or Boris? And would Peter Bone and John Redwood agree to be led by Amber Rudd or Philip Hammond?
    For that reason, you can probably strike all four of those off the list of possible successors to Theresa May. As of now, there only look like two plausible candidates: David Davis and Michael Gove. Maybe Jeremy Hunt as well.
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    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Scott_P said:

    @AllieHBNews: On Priti Patel's future in Cabinet, @BBCJLandale says - 'we have a fragile Govt & Mrs May will not want to lose another colleague'

    Too weak to govern.


    Still infinitely better than the Corbyn alternative.

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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited November 2017

    Should France embrace gender-neutral words? Bien sur!

    The French Academy is railing against moves towards a gender-neutral style, but language always blends and changes without any loss of expressive power.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/shortcuts/2017/nov/06/france-embrace-gender-neutral-language-academy?CMP=twt_gu


    He said, she said.

    They said, they said.

    Oh la la!

    Oh les, les!

    No... not quite the same. Plus ca change....
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,117

    Scott_P said:

    But just imagine the forces that would be unleashed in a Tory leadership contest. The candidates would fall over themselves to trash the EU in order to appeal to the dinosaurs in the constituencies. The talks would be over, hard Brexit would become unavoidable, the DUP could well decide that it was time to abandon the sinking ship and it's by no means clear that the eventual victor could command a majority in the Commons.

    And that is different from now, how exactly?

    Tezza falls over herself to criticise the EU in order to appeal to the dinosaurs in the constituencies.

    The talks are nearly over, hard Brexit is probably unavoidable

    And it's by no means clear she could command a majority in the Commons for any concrete proposals.
    May has the DUP on board and she has some claim to an electoral mandate as leader of the largest party. A new Tory leader may not have either of those. And a leadership contest would be bitter and divisive - ultras on both sides might not accept the result. Would Anna Soubry agree to be led by JRM or Boris? And would Peter Bone and John Redwood agree to be led by Amber Rudd or Philip Hammond?
    For that reason, you can probably strike all four of those off the list of possible successors to Theresa May. As of now, there only look like two plausible candidates: David Davis and Michael Gove. Maybe Jeremy Hunt as well.
    It will be Davis, Gove is a capable minister but polls abysmally.

    At the moment MPs would put Davis and Rudd to the membership and Davis would win.
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    Scott_P said:

    But just imagine the forces that would be unleashed in a Tory leadership contest. The candidates would fall over themselves to trash the EU in order to appeal to the dinosaurs in the constituencies. The talks would be over, hard Brexit would become unavoidable, the DUP could well decide that it was time to abandon the sinking ship and it's by no means clear that the eventual victor could command a majority in the Commons.

    And that is different from now, how exactly?

    Tezza falls over herself to criticise the EU in order to appeal to the dinosaurs in the constituencies.

    The talks are nearly over, hard Brexit is probably unavoidable

    And it's by no means clear she could command a majority in the Commons for any concrete proposals.
    TM will not hard Brexit
    So how do you reconcile that with her 'No deal is better than a bad deal' mantra?
    Negotiating tactic as those of us who have had a career negotiating deals know
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Still infinitely better than the Corbyn alternative.

    Not objectively true.

    Look at the CBI this morning. They would rather have Corbyn than this fiasco.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,894
    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    I predicted a few months ago that Pritti Patel was likely to be next out. Today she's been shown to be another victim of the Foreign office back stabbers. This time I have to say deserved. 12 meetings with Netanyahu and associates without FO approval in the company of an Israeli lobbyist and claiming Boris knew about it which she has now admitted is a lie.

    If May doesn't sack her it'll be extraordinary.

    May won't sack her as there are a lot of big Jewish donors to the party, Conservative Friends of Israel is influential and she knows the only way the Tories will hold Barnet next year in the London council elections is through the Jewish vote.
    That is almost anti semitic. Are you suggesting Jewish money is used to swing government policy?
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    If I was TM I would say I am going on a walk with Philip and the rest of you can just get on with it
    You do wonder how much more she can take.

    But just imagine the forces that would be unleashed in a Tory leadership contest. The candidates would fall over themselves to trash the EU in order to appeal to the dinosaurs in the constituencies. The talks would be over, hard Brexit would become unavoidable, the DUP could well decide that it was time to abandon the sinking ship and it's by no means clear that the eventual victor could command a majority in the Commons.
    As a member I would expect several candidates would stand and go through the hustings. The MP's would select the final two and as it stands now David Davis and JRM are possible and JRM could take the membership vote. Boris and Patel are not going to be in the frame, nor Leadsom
    The MPs are not going to nominate JRM, who has never been a minister. But today's news is good for other Leavers, as you suggest.

    FWIW, if the contest goes to the members I don't actually think we will vote strictly on Brexit lines. But it might be politic of the MPs to offer two Leavers to make sure of that (assuming Ruth hasn't found a way to stand).
    Looks as if there could be several by elections on offer for Ruth
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    Mr. Observer, it's completely unacceptable.

    Hmm, thought I'd already posted this. But Boris is still unacceptable.
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    OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469

    Scott_P said:

    @AllieHBNews: On Priti Patel's future in Cabinet, @BBCJLandale says - 'we have a fragile Govt & Mrs May will not want to lose another colleague'

    Too weak to govern.


    Still infinitely better than the Corbyn alternative.

    It is close to the stage where absolutely anything is better than a Conservative Government.....
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,117
    edited November 2017
    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    I predicted a few months ago that Pritti Patel was likely to be next out. Today she's been shown to be another victim of the Foreign office back stabbers. This time I have to say deserved. 12 meetings with Netanyahu and associates without FO approval in the company of an Israeli lobbyist and claiming Boris knew about it which she has now admitted is a lie.

    If May doesn't sack her it'll be extraordinary.

    May won't sack her as there are a lot of big Jewish donors to the party, Conservative Friends of Israel is influential and she knows the only way the Tories will hold Barnet next year in the London council elections is through the Jewish vote.
    That is almost anti semitic. Are you suggesting Jewish money is used to swing government policy?
    No I am saying the Tories got their highest share of the Jewish vote in June and a clear majority of it because of Corbyn which was pivotal in keeping Finchley and Golders Green, Hendon, Harrow East and Chipping Barnet as Tory seats. They will not want to undermine their support with the Jewish community.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,894

    Terry-Thomas had the right phrase for this government.

    I think Johnny Rotten's was better
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    Scott_P said:

    Still infinitely better than the Corbyn alternative.

    Not objectively true.

    Look at the CBI this morning. They would rather have Corbyn than this fiasco.
    Do you really believe that. They are using him to put pressure on TM but when push comes to shove they will ditch him
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,894
    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    I predicted a few months ago that Pritti Patel was likely to be next out. Today she's been shown to be another victim of the Foreign office back stabbers. This time I have to say deserved. 12 meetings with Netanyahu and associates without FO approval in the company of an Israeli lobbyist and claiming Boris knew about it which she has now admitted is a lie.

    If May doesn't sack her it'll be extraordinary.

    May won't sack her as there are a lot of big Jewish donors to the party, Conservative Friends of Israel is influential and she knows the only way the Tories will hold Barnet next year in the London council elections is through the Jewish vote.
    That is almost anti semitic. Are you suggesting Jewish money is used to swing government policy?
    No I am saying the Tories got their highest share of the Jewish vote in June and a clear majority of it because of Corbyn which was pivotal in keeping Finchley for example as a Tory seat. They will not want to undermine their support with the Jewish community.
    Do you have evidence that there's a 'Jewish vote' as in Jews vote as a block?
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    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578
    Scott_P said:

    Still infinitely better than the Corbyn alternative.

    Not objectively true.

    Look at the CBI this morning. They would rather have Corbyn than this fiasco.
    Extraordinary but true.

    Business is desperate to avoid the cliff edge and Corbyn might just be able to do that. There is probably a majority in the HoC for the Labour policy of a "no change" transition period and the EU would be so relieved to see the back of the Tories they might be persuaded to sign up.
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    Scott_P said:

    But just imagine the forces that would be unleashed in a Tory leadership contest. The candidates would fall over themselves to trash the EU in order to appeal to the dinosaurs in the constituencies. The talks would be over, hard Brexit would become unavoidable, the DUP could well decide that it was time to abandon the sinking ship and it's by no means clear that the eventual victor could command a majority in the Commons.

    And that is different from now, how exactly?

    Tezza falls over herself to criticise the EU in order to appeal to the dinosaurs in the constituencies.

    The talks are nearly over, hard Brexit is probably unavoidable

    And it's by no means clear she could command a majority in the Commons for any concrete proposals.
    May has the DUP on board and she has some claim to an electoral mandate as leader of the largest party. A new Tory leader may not have either of those. And a leadership contest would be bitter and divisive - ultras on both sides might not accept the result. Would Anna Soubry agree to be led by JRM or Boris? And would Peter Bone and John Redwood agree to be led by Amber Rudd or Philip Hammond?
    For that reason, you can probably strike all four of those off the list of possible successors to Theresa May. As of now, there only look like two plausible candidates: David Davis and Michael Gove. Maybe Jeremy Hunt as well.
    Oh please let it be Hunt! Payday for me! :-)
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited November 2017
    rpjs said:

    Given the state of the present British government and the government in waiting, maybe it wouldn't be a bad thing for the UK to stop being an independent country. It's certainly not showing much sign of being capable of governing itself the way things are going.

    The shambles of the last six months in particular has caused me to think in a similar way. I cannot believe that a country which was such a leading light in so many ways is now about as well governed as Zimbabwe.

    Horrifying and astounding at the same time. We have a ringside seat for a rare historical event - the reputational destruction of a once great nation.
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    OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    Pong said:

    Scott_P said:

    The PM is too weak to sack Ministers who deserve to be sacked.

    Is this what the "Take Back Control" team had in mind?

    Brexit is an existential threat to good governance.

    STRONG AND STABLE

    I still can't quite believe "Sir" Lynton charged the tories £4m for that pathetic joke of a campaign.
    Lynton didn't want May to call a GE, and according to reports was sidelined until it was too late.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,774

    Scott_P said:

    Thread...

    twitter.com/jonlis1/status/927551446186450944

    That looks like a very plausible account of EU thinking, and of how things might pan out.

    I remain mystified that the financial markets are so nonchalant about the risk.
    People in the UK who talk about politics versus economics don't realise the EU is above all a legal construct. Which is a major reason why it's difficult to leave. The EU owns the European and, increasingly the international, legal and regulatory systems. Whether we like it or not, they decide how things are done. We can either be a part of that system or be told what to do by it.

    It's also the EU greatest weakness. Using the rule book to decide things removes the emotion and fractiousness in a continent with multiple peoples, cultures and languages. It allows things to be done. But it also alienates the rulers from the governed, who don't feel they have a say in how things are done.

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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Scott_P said:

    Still infinitely better than the Corbyn alternative.

    Not objectively true.

    Look at the CBI this morning. They would rather have Corbyn than this fiasco.
    Do you really believe that. They are using him to put pressure on TM but when push comes to shove they will ditch him
    Please wake up Mr G - it is time to smell the lilies...
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    QUOTE OF THE DAY
    Lord Ashcroft:

    “Dear, dear, dear, dear, dear, dear, dear, dear, dear, dear, dear, dear, dear, dear, dear, dear, dear, dear, dear, dear, dear, dear…”
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    OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    Scott_P said:

    May sacked Fallon.

    He resigned
    May to Fallon "I will accept your letter of resignation this afternoon" type resignation?
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    Rebourne_FluffyRebourne_Fluffy Posts: 225
    edited November 2017
    Off-topic: Most meaningless post ever...

    http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/1763190/#Comment_1763190

    Scotland was an independent country for most of its history.

    And...? No history under the Picts; now maintained externally. I know you try to mean well but please think, post and then edit your fauxes.

    :tumbleweed:
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    calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    News overload BBC plays it safe with leading with Mrs Browns boys.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,119
    FF43 said:

    It's also the EU greatest weakness. Using the rule book to decide things removes the emotion and fractiousness in a continent with multiple peoples, cultures and languages. It allows things to be done. But it also alienates the rulers from the governed, who don't feel they have a say in how things are done.

    Doesn't the same argument apply to any form of written constitution? It's not specifically a weakness of the EU.
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    Off-topic: Most meaningless post ever...

    I'll have to raise my game.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,913

    rpjs said:

    Given the state of the present British government and the government in waiting, maybe it wouldn't be a bad thing for the UK to stop being an independent country. It's certainly not showing much sign of being capable of governing itself the way things are going.

    The shambles of the last six months in particular has caused me to think in a similar way. I cannot believe that a country which was such a leading light in so many ways is now about as well governed as Zimbabwe.

    Horrifying and astounding at the same time. We have a ringside seat for a rare historical event - the reputational destruction of a once great nation.
    This country can survive a poor government. It's had poor governments in the past.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Scott_P said:

    But just imagine the forces that would be unleashed in a Tory leadership contest. The candidates would fall over themselves to trash the EU in order to appeal to the dinosaurs in the constituencies. The talks would be over, hard Brexit would become unavoidable, the DUP could well decide that it was time to abandon the sinking ship and it's by no means clear that the eventual victor could command a majority in the Commons.

    And that is different from now, how exactly?

    Tezza falls over herself to criticise the EU in order to appeal to the dinosaurs in the constituencies.

    The talks are nearly over, hard Brexit is probably unavoidable

    And it's by no means clear she could command a majority in the Commons for any concrete proposals.
    TM will not hard Brexit
    So how do you reconcile that with her 'No deal is better than a bad deal' mantra?
    Negotiating tactic as those of us who have had a career negotiating deals know
    Though telling people it is a negotiating tactic rather does spoil its utility.!
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    Scott_P said:

    Still infinitely better than the Corbyn alternative.

    Not objectively true.

    Look at the CBI this morning. They would rather have Corbyn than this fiasco.
    Do you really believe that. They are using him to put pressure on TM but when push comes to shove they will ditch him
    Please wake up Mr G - it is time to smell the lilies...
    There is no way the CBI will back a Marxist PM and worse McDonnell
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,774
    edited November 2017

    FF43 said:

    It's also the EU greatest weakness. Using the rule book to decide things removes the emotion and fractiousness in a continent with multiple peoples, cultures and languages. It allows things to be done. But it also alienates the rulers from the governed, who don't feel they have a say in how things are done.

    Doesn't the same argument apply to any form of written constitution? It's not specifically a weakness of the EU.
    No. Because the EU is the only supranational legal system of its type. The US and China are powerful states but they don't implement international systems and systems of law for other countries to adhere to.

    And edit because I didn't get your point. The EU uses legalism as a subsitute for political decision-making. To some extent they have to. It's not a superstate and no-one wants it to be.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,913

    Scott_P said:

    Still infinitely better than the Corbyn alternative.

    Not objectively true.

    Look at the CBI this morning. They would rather have Corbyn than this fiasco.
    Do you really believe that. They are using him to put pressure on TM but when push comes to shove they will ditch him
    Please wake up Mr G - it is time to smell the lilies...
    There is no way the CBI will back a Marxist PM and worse McDonnell
    They did back Labour in the early 1980s.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    calum said:

    News overload BBC plays it safe with leading with Mrs Browns boys.

    Has it been cancelled? It would be just the buck up that the country needs.
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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Did anyone have any bets on Damian Green becoming PM ? I know there was some discussion he might when he became first secretary of state.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    There is no way the CBI will back a Marxist PM and worse McDonnell

    That's straight from the "BMW will force Merkel to give us a good deal" book of Brexit fantasy
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    calum said:

    News overload BBC plays it safe with leading with Mrs Browns boys.

    Has it been cancelled? It would be just the buck up that the country needs.
    Don't be so mean. It's not my cup of tea either but it gives a lot of innocent pleasure to a lot of people.
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    Yorkcity said:

    Did anyone have any bets on Damian Green becoming PM ? I know there was some discussion he might when he became first secretary of state.

    Yes I did at 70/1
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,561
    edited November 2017
    Yorkcity said:

    Did anyone have any bets on Damian Green becoming PM ? I know there was some discussion he might when he became first secretary of state.

    Mike and myself did, Mike got 70/1 I think.
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    OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    Roger said:

    I predicted a few months ago that Pritti Patel was likely to be next out. Today she's been shown to be another victim of the Foreign office back stabbers. This time I have to say deserved. 12 meetings with Netanyahu and associates without FO approval in the company of an Israeli lobbyist and claiming Boris knew about it which she has now admitted is a lie.

    If May doesn't sack her it'll be extraordinary.

    What has probably annoyed May more, is being told by Netanyahu on Friday of the meetings in Israel.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BBCJLandale: Extraordinary: @theresa_may met @Netanyahu at No10 last week without knowing @patel4witham had seen him secretly in August
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    OchEye said:

    Pong said:

    Scott_P said:

    The PM is too weak to sack Ministers who deserve to be sacked.

    Is this what the "Take Back Control" team had in mind?

    Brexit is an existential threat to good governance.

    STRONG AND STABLE

    I still can't quite believe "Sir" Lynton charged the tories £4m for that pathetic joke of a campaign.
    Lynton didn't want May to call a GE, and according to reports was sidelined until it was too late.
    The problem was not enough lynton, rather than too much?

    It's a view, I suppose.
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    Yorkcity said:

    Did anyone have any bets on Damian Green becoming PM ? I know there was some discussion he might when he became first secretary of state.

    I do, following OGH's suggestion. It's not a bet I'm expecting to collect on.
  • Options

    calum said:

    News overload BBC plays it safe with leading with Mrs Browns boys.

    Has it been cancelled? It would be just the buck up that the country needs.
    It is a total mystery why that show is so popular.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @aljwhite: Really, really tough to say whether No10 has been weaker on Boris or Patel this evening. Chapeau
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    Yorkcity said:

    Did anyone have any bets on Damian Green becoming PM ? I know there was some discussion he might when he became first secretary of state.

    I am on him at 25. I have bets all over the possible leadership candidates as nobody has any idea who it will be in the end.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Yorkcity said:

    Did anyone have any bets on Damian Green becoming PM ? I know there was some discussion he might when he became first secretary of state.

    I had him, Fallon and Priti. My Tory leadership book is a horrorshow.

    Particularly now Ministers are acting as if they are auditioning for a political revival of Mel Brooks "The Producers"
  • Options
    Pong said:

    OchEye said:

    Pong said:

    Scott_P said:

    The PM is too weak to sack Ministers who deserve to be sacked.

    Is this what the "Take Back Control" team had in mind?

    Brexit is an existential threat to good governance.

    STRONG AND STABLE

    I still can't quite believe "Sir" Lynton charged the tories £4m for that pathetic joke of a campaign.
    Lynton didn't want May to call a GE, and according to reports was sidelined until it was too late.
    The problem was not enough lynton, rather than too much?

    It's a view, I suppose.
    That was exactly the problem. There is no way in the world that Lynton would have approved the manifesto.
  • Options
    Mr. City, I have a small amount on Green.
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Sean_F said:

    rpjs said:

    Given the state of the present British government and the government in waiting, maybe it wouldn't be a bad thing for the UK to stop being an independent country. It's certainly not showing much sign of being capable of governing itself the way things are going.

    The shambles of the last six months in particular has caused me to think in a similar way. I cannot believe that a country which was such a leading light in so many ways is now about as well governed as Zimbabwe.

    Horrifying and astounding at the same time. We have a ringside seat for a rare historical event - the reputational destruction of a once great nation.
    This country can survive a poor government. It's had poor governments in the past.
    "This country can survive..." - I am sure it can survive, but that allows for a lot of sub-optimal scenarios to occur and they can all count as "survival".
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    calum said:

    News overload BBC plays it safe with leading with Mrs Browns boys.

    Has it been cancelled? It would be just the buck up that the country needs.
    It is a total mystery why that show is so popular.
  • Options

    Pong said:

    OchEye said:

    Pong said:

    Scott_P said:

    The PM is too weak to sack Ministers who deserve to be sacked.

    Is this what the "Take Back Control" team had in mind?

    Brexit is an existential threat to good governance.

    STRONG AND STABLE

    I still can't quite believe "Sir" Lynton charged the tories £4m for that pathetic joke of a campaign.
    Lynton didn't want May to call a GE, and according to reports was sidelined until it was too late.
    The problem was not enough lynton, rather than too much?

    It's a view, I suppose.
    That was exactly the problem. There is no way in the world that Lynton would have approved the manifesto.
    Almost like Sir Lynton's mantra is “Barnacles Off The Boat”
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,375

    Yorkcity said:

    Did anyone have any bets on Damian Green becoming PM ? I know there was some discussion he might when he became first secretary of state.

    I had him, Fallon and Priti. My Tory leadership book is a horrorshow.

    Particularly now Ministers are acting as if they are auditioning for a political revival of Mel Brooks "The Producers"
    Your fault for going for safe pairs of hands. And Priti.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956

    calum said:

    News overload BBC plays it safe with leading with Mrs Browns boys.

    Has it been cancelled? It would be just the buck up that the country needs.
    It is a total mystery why that show is so popular.
    Indeed. I've yet to find a single person in my (quite diverse on most subjects) group of friends who likes it....
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,783
    Pong said:

    Scott_P said:

    The PM is too weak to sack Ministers who deserve to be sacked.

    Is this what the "Take Back Control" team had in mind?

    Brexit is an existential threat to good governance.

    STRONG AND STABLE

    I still can't quite believe "Sir" Lynton charged the tories £4m for that pathetic joke of a campaign.
    He was probably not relying on repeat business ?
  • Options

    Yorkcity said:

    Did anyone have any bets on Damian Green becoming PM ? I know there was some discussion he might when he became first secretary of state.

    I had him, Fallon and Priti. My Tory leadership book is a horrorshow.

    Particularly now Ministers are acting as if they are auditioning for a political revival of Mel Brooks "The Producers"
    Generally I lay rather than back in such markets. I make exceptions for some long odds bets.

    My big losers are:

    (next Prime Minister): Jeremy Corbyn
    Jacob Rees-Mogg
    Philip Hammond

    At present, anyone else is a winner for me. I win big with Michael Gove, Jeremy Hunt, Amber Rudd and Damian Green.
  • Options

    Sean_F said:

    rpjs said:

    Given the state of the present British government and the government in waiting, maybe it wouldn't be a bad thing for the UK to stop being an independent country. It's certainly not showing much sign of being capable of governing itself the way things are going.

    The shambles of the last six months in particular has caused me to think in a similar way. I cannot believe that a country which was such a leading light in so many ways is now about as well governed as Zimbabwe.

    Horrifying and astounding at the same time. We have a ringside seat for a rare historical event - the reputational destruction of a once great nation.
    This country can survive a poor government. It's had poor governments in the past.
    "This country can survive..." - I am sure it can survive, but that allows for a lot of sub-optimal scenarios to occur and they can all count as "survival".
    There is a lot of ruin in a country.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,119
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    It's also the EU greatest weakness. Using the rule book to decide things removes the emotion and fractiousness in a continent with multiple peoples, cultures and languages. It allows things to be done. But it also alienates the rulers from the governed, who don't feel they have a say in how things are done.

    Doesn't the same argument apply to any form of written constitution? It's not specifically a weakness of the EU.
    No. Because the EU is the only supranational legal system of its type. The US and China are powerful states but they don't implement international systems and systems of law for other countries to adhere to.

    And edit because I didn't get your point. The EU uses legalism as a subsitute for political decision-making. To some extent they have to. It's not a superstate and no-one wants it to be.
    In the case of the Article 50 negotiations it seems that the British government made the mistake of believing that the EU was using legalism as a subsitute for political decision making, when in fact upholding the system was the political decision.

    The 'system' is only alienating if you don't accept its legitimacy, and if you don't accept its legitimacy, that's not the system's fault.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @bbcnickrobinson: That’s some clarification from Priti Patel. When said Boris knew about freelance trip to meet Israeli PM she meant Boris did not know ...
  • Options
    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited November 2017
    IanB2 said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Did anyone have any bets on Damian Green becoming PM ? I know there was some discussion he might when he became first secretary of state.

    I had him, Fallon and Priti. My Tory leadership book is a horrorshow.

    Particularly now Ministers are acting as if they are auditioning for a political revival of Mel Brooks "The Producers"
    Your fault for going for safe pairs of hands. And Priti.
    If she was PM, would that be a Priti safe pair of hands? :innocent:
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,359
    lol! The Government does deserve an award for thinking up some new weird eye-rolling precedent every day.

    That said, it does seem to me that Boris's latest outing, and his refusal to withdraw it, constitute grounds for dismissal - or at least a direct order from Number 10 to withdraw it. If you can't trust the Foreign Secretary not to go out of his way to put British citizens at risk, we'd be better off not having a Foreign Secretary.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,399
    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    I predicted a few months ago that Pritti Patel was likely to be next out. Today she's been shown to be another victim of the Foreign office back stabbers. This time I have to say deserved. 12 meetings with Netanyahu and associates without FO approval in the company of an Israeli lobbyist and claiming Boris knew about it which she has now admitted is a lie.

    If May doesn't sack her it'll be extraordinary.

    May won't sack her as there are a lot of big Jewish donors to the party, Conservative Friends of Israel is influential and she knows the only way the Tories will hold Barnet next year in the London council elections is through the Jewish vote.
    Yeah those Jews, eh. Got to keep them onside. If only there was an easier way to recognise them.
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693

    QUOTE OF THE DAY
    Lord Ashcroft:

    “Dear, dear, dear, dear, dear, dear, dear, dear, dear, dear, dear, dear, dear, dear, dear, dear, dear, dear, dear, dear, dear, dear…”

    Amusingly, Ashcroft found someone willing to write a pro-tax avoidance piece for his website;

    https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2017/11/diego-zuluaga-the-paradise-papers-the-rich-are-paying-more-tax-than-ever-and-tax-havens-are-a-force-for-good.html
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    calum said:

    News overload BBC plays it safe with leading with Mrs Browns boys.

    Didnt mention it's pension funds are invested in a tax haven, as is labour's HQ rented from an offshore trust and as is John McDonnells pension managed offshore. And as for the Guardian. One word for it

    'Hypocrisy'
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    TOPPING said:

    Yeah those Jews, eh. Got to keep them onside. If only there was an easier way to recognise them.

    Oh, Oh, I've got an idea !!
  • Options

    lol! The Government does deserve an award for thinking up some new weird eye-rolling precedent every day.

    That said, it does seem to me that Boris's latest outing, and his refusal to withdraw it, constitute grounds for dismissal - or at least a direct order from Number 10 to withdraw it. If you can't trust the Foreign Secretary not to go out of his way to put British citizens at risk, we'd be better off not having a Foreign Secretary.
    I doubt the Cabinet Sec will have time to do anything else in next few months other than constantly updating the cabinet guidelines.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Meanwhile...

    @EdKrassen: The Russian Troll farms are now pushin a fake Hillary Clinton sex tape in which they hired a Hillary-lookalike to have sex with a man on film.
    My guess is that this is to help counter a soon-to-break story by the MSM about a Trump sex scandal. I’m hearing there are witnesses!
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    Scott_P said:

    Meanwhile...

    @EdKrassen: The Russian Troll farms are now pushin a fake Hillary Clinton sex tape in which they hired a Hillary-lookalike to have sex with a man on film.
    My guess is that this is to help counter a soon-to-break story by the MSM about a Trump sex scandal. I’m hearing there are witnesses!

    When they said extreme porn on a pc in Damien Green's office, was this the kind of stuff they meant?
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    Scott_P said:

    Meanwhile...

    @EdKrassen: The Russian Troll farms are now pushin a fake Hillary Clinton sex tape in which they hired a Hillary-lookalike to have sex with a man on film.
    My guess is that this is to help counter a soon-to-break story by the MSM about a Trump sex scandal. I’m hearing there are witnesses!

    theyre clearly slipping up

    it should have been another woman
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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Yorkcity said:

    Did anyone have any bets on Damian Green becoming PM ? I know there was some discussion he might when he became first secretary of state.

    I am on him at 25. I have bets all over the possible leadership candidates as nobody has any idea who it will be in the end.
    Very true .It looks a very difficult call.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,894

    Pong said:

    OchEye said:

    Pong said:

    Scott_P said:

    The PM is too weak to sack Ministers who deserve to be sacked.

    Is this what the "Take Back Control" team had in mind?

    Brexit is an existential threat to good governance.

    STRONG AND STABLE

    I still can't quite believe "Sir" Lynton charged the tories £4m for that pathetic joke of a campaign.
    Lynton didn't want May to call a GE, and according to reports was sidelined until it was too late.
    The problem was not enough lynton, rather than too much?

    It's a view, I suppose.
    That was exactly the problem. There is no way in the world that Lynton would have approved the manifesto.
    That's a new one. Blame your crap product.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,117
    edited November 2017
    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    I predicted a few months ago that Pritti Patel was likely to be next out. Today she's been shown to be another victim of the Foreign office back stabbers. This time I have to say deserved. 12 meetings with Netanyahu and associates without FO approval in the company of an Israeli lobbyist and claiming Boris knew about it which she has now admitted is a lie.

    If May doesn't sack her it'll be extraordinary.

    May won't sack her as there are a lot of big Jewish donors to the party, Conservative Friends of Israel is influential and she knows the only way the Tories will hold Barnet next year in the London council elections is through the Jewish vote.
    That is almost anti semitic. Are you suggesting Jewish money is used to swing government policy?
    No I am saying the Tories got their highest share of the Jewish vote in June and a clear majority of it because of Corbyn which was pivotal in keeping Finchley for example as a Tory seat. They will not want to undermine their support with the Jewish community.
    Do you have evidence that there's a 'Jewish vote' as in Jews vote as a block?
    They certainly voted as a block in June against Corbyn.

    Labour got just 13% of the Jewish vote. Pre Thatcher Labour won the Jewish vote, as did Blair.
    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2017/07/can-jeremy-corbyns-labour-win-back-jewish-vote
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    edited November 2017
    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/bbcbreaking/status/927596760666603520

    It is like somebody at the BBC or the Guardian gave Jezza a heads-up for last weeks PMQ's....but wouldn't give the same to the HMRC.

    Again Lewis Hamilton and tax efficiency are about as commonly used a multiple world champ.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137
    Scott_P said:
    The BBC getting all het up that the cast of Mrs Brown's Boys got paid into an account in Mauritius.

    By, er, the BBC......
This discussion has been closed.