Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If Jared O’Mara had been in Farage’s UKIP he’d have been boote

13»

Comments

  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,290
    Corbyn on front page of Guardian for a change.

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/922574354038345730
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,290
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,015
    dr_spyn said:
    Honestly not a bad attempt, although not sure it is worth the effort - the best impressions need not be the most accurate.
  • Options
    GIN1138 said:

    Did I hear correctly on the news that the government is blaming the Universal Credit balls up on Boy George?

    Shirley not!!!!! ;)

    Universal Crud-it!
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    dr_spyn said:
    Even for someone who’s spent their whole working life in the make-up artist’s chair, that’s an impressive look.
  • Options
    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Does the criticism of Trump speaking to the families of fallen soldiers have similarities to the Sun's campaign against Gordon Brown.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,953
    JWisemann said:

    The other point is -- if a teacher had made these remarks, or a policeman, or a University lecturer -- would they not now be facing disciplinary action?

    You think anyone in the above roles should be made to answer disciplinary proceedings for something they said in a relatively private sphere half a lifetime ago, long before they were employed there? That a pretty terrifying view of the world you have there, and I want no part of it!
    I agree with you, but I think that you and I are very much out of touch with the times we live in.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,953

    Cookie said:

    blueblue said:

    JWisemann said:

    What the actual F? I think NOT having said a few stupid things as a youth in another decade entirely on a niche forum of the type devoted to flippant chat should be a greater bar to office, as that would be very suspicious indeed ;)

    This sorry episode really is bringing out the worst of the unholy, wretched Stasi-esque alliance between the Jess Phillipses and Guido Fawkeses of this world.

    Beyond satire.

    Er, the Labour Party and the left in general live and breathe the social justice warrior creed. Pointing out their gross hypocrisy is valuable precisely because it exposes what an anti-human plague that creed is.
    Somehow, I don’t think this O’Mara thing is going to change minds in terms of political affiliation and voting intention.

    Particularly when many people still see the Conservatives as problematic on issues like these as well (such as their ongoing issues with ethnic minorities not voting Conservative in significant/large numbers).

    And they aren’t ‘social justice warriors’.
    I was under the iumpression that - the Islamic vote apart - there is no longer any massive imbalance in the ethnic minority vote? Certainly I think most or all non-Muslim ethnic minorities voted Conservative over Labour in 2015. Not sure about 2017. To the extent that there is an imbalance, it can be explained by age - that is, the age profile of the white population is older, and hence tends to be more strongly Conservative. The Islamic vote is strongly Labour, but the Islamic vote <> the ethnic minority vote.
    The Conservatives did pretty badly with ethnic minorities this year: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/29/failing-win-ethnic-minority-vote-cost-theresa-may-28-seats-2017/

    With those numbers, they can’t only be doing badly with Muslim voters.

    Also this from 2015 doesn’t support most non-Muslim voters voting Conservative over Labour:
    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/06/12/are-conservatives-really-breaking-through-ethnic-m/

    I don’t think age explains it either. There is little evidence that hordes of older minorities vote Conservative over Labour.
    Most ethnic minority voters are left wing. That's true of all Western countries.
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,290
    @sandpit @kle4 Need to re-calibrate my prescription - note to OGH good image for tomorrows first thread. .
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,790
    kle4 said:

    dr_spyn said:
    Honestly not a bad attempt, although not sure it is worth the effort - the best impressions need not be the most accurate.
    Tracey will have to go some to beat her Angela Merkel!
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,953

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    JWisemann said:

    The other point is -- if a teacher had made these remarks, or a policeman, or a University lecturer -- would they not now be facing disciplinary action?

    You think anyone in the above roles should be made to answer disciplinary proceedings for something they said in a relatively private sphere half a lifetime ago, long before they were employed there? That a pretty terrifying view of the world you have there, and I want no part of it!
    I am saying that if a policeman or a teacher or a university lecturer were found to have made those remarks, they would be facing disciplinary action.

    I am stating what would happen, that is all. Neither agreeing, nor disagreeing, just stating.

    If you or Jared think the web is a "relatively private sphere", then you are guilty of nuclear-grade stupidity. There is no known cure.
    Had they made such remarks before they were either teachers or policemen, how could they possibly be facing disciplinary action - unless they had lied on application for the job ?

    I don't take the view that time heals everything - but equally *if* it's an isolated youthful mistake, subsequently regretted, then it ought not to condemn someone forever.
    I think it is likely that a teacher or policeman or university lecturer would be facing disciplinary action.

    If the remarks were made before they were in the job, the disciplinary action would probably take that into account & demand evidence of change of heart, or recommend attending suitable courses.

    Look at it the other way. If a policeman, or teacher, carried out homophobic bullying in their job, and there was history on the web of this before they were appointed, the institution would face an shit-avalanche along the lines ... "You knew he was a homophobe, there is material on the web, you did nothing about it and X was able to continue with this activity as a teacher .."
    Then the responsibility would surely be on the employer to conduct better pre-employment screening - which might include social media ?
    AFAIK, absent any criminal conviction, there is no obligation on a prospective employee to disclose indiscretions of this nature - unless specifically requested to do so.
    If information comes to light after a teacher has been employed that she or he had made sexist/homophobic remarks, then the institution would be in dereliction of its duty of care to students if they did not investigate.
    That sounds totalitarian.
  • Options
    brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    Sandpit said:

    dr_spyn said:
    Even for someone who’s spent their whole working life in the make-up artist’s chair, that’s an impressive look.
    She also does an amazing impression of Angela Merkel and a power crazed Nicola Sturgeon seeking Scottish global domination!

    https://youtu.be/Fin6aP1WbaA
  • Options
    Sean_F said:

    Cookie said:

    blueblue said:

    JWisemann said:

    What the actual F? I think NOT having said a few stupid things as a youth in another decade entirely on a niche forum of the type devoted to flippant chat should be a greater bar to office, as that would be very suspicious indeed ;)

    This sorry episode really is bringing out the worst of the unholy, wretched Stasi-esque alliance between the Jess Phillipses and Guido Fawkeses of this world.

    Beyond satire.

    Er, the Labour Party and the left in general live and breathe the social justice warrior creed. Pointing out their gross hypocrisy is valuable precisely because it exposes what an anti-human plague that creed is.
    Somehow, I don’t think this O’Mara thing is going to change minds in terms of political affiliation and voting intention.

    Particularly when many people still see the Conservatives as problematic on issues like these as well (such as their ongoing issues with ethnic minorities not voting Conservative in significant/large numbers).

    And they aren’t ‘social justice warriors’.
    I was under the iumpression that - the Islamic vote apart - there is no longer any massive imbalance in the ethnic minority vote? Certainly I think most or all non-Muslim ethnic minorities voted Conservative over Labour in 2015. Not sure about 2017. To the extent that there is an imbalance, it can be explained by age - that is, the age profile of the white population is older, and hence tends to be more strongly Conservative. The Islamic vote is strongly Labour, but the Islamic vote <> the ethnic minority vote.
    The Conservatives did pretty badly with ethnic minorities this year: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/29/failing-win-ethnic-minority-vote-cost-theresa-may-28-seats-2017/

    With those numbers, they can’t only be doing badly with Muslim voters.

    Also this from 2015 doesn’t support most non-Muslim voters voting Conservative over Labour:
    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/06/12/are-conservatives-really-breaking-through-ethnic-m/

    I don’t think age explains it either. There is little evidence that hordes of older minorities vote Conservative over Labour.
    Most ethnic minority voters are left wing. That's true of all Western countries.
    Yet India has a right-wing government.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,953
    blueblue said:

    blueblue said:

    JWisemann said:

    What the actual F? I think NOT having said a few stupid things as a youth in another decade entirely on a niche forum of the type devoted to flippant chat should be a greater bar to office, as that would be very suspicious indeed ;)

    This sorry episode really is bringing out the worst of the unholy, wretched Stasi-esque alliance between the Jess Phillipses and Guido Fawkeses of this world.

    Beyond satire.

    Er, the Labour Party and the left in general live and breathe the social justice warrior creed. Pointing out their gross hypocrisy is valuable precisely because it exposes what an anti-human plague that creed is.
    Somehow, I don’t think this O’Mara thing is going to change minds in terms of political affiliation and voting intention.

    Particularly when many people still see the Conservatives as problematic on issues like these as well (such as their ongoing issues with ethnic minorities not voting Conservative in significant/large numbers).

    And they aren’t ‘social justice warriors’.
    The difference is that the Conservatives aren't hypocrites - everyone knows we're for freedom of speech, not its suppression. Labour and the left are the exact opposite.

    But of course it won't move a single vote, since no one cares about the hypocrisy of people on their own side.
    I would like to think that the Conservatives are for freedom of speech.

    But, I don't.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144

    Yet India has a right-wing government.

    Maybe because on a show of hands, Hindu Gods are always going to win out.....

  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,953

    Sean_F said:

    Cookie said:

    blueblue said:

    JWisemann said:

    What the actual F? I think NOT having said a few stupid things as a youth in another decade entirely on a niche forum of the type devoted to flippant chat should be a greater bar to office, as that would be very suspicious indeed ;)

    This sorry episode really is bringing out the worst of the unholy, wretched Stasi-esque alliance between the Jess Phillipses and Guido Fawkeses of this world.

    Beyond satire.

    Er, the Labour Party and the left in general live and breathe the social justice warrior creed. Pointing out their gross hypocrisy is valuable precisely because it exposes what an anti-human plague that creed is.
    Somehow, I don’t think this O’Mara thing is going to change minds in terms of political affiliation and voting intention.

    Particularly when many people still see the Conservatives as problematic on issues like these as well (such as their ongoing issues with ethnic minorities not voting Conservative in significant/large numbers).

    And they aren’t ‘social justice warriors’.
    I was under the iumpression that - the Islamic vote apart - there is no longer any massive imbalance in the ethnic minority vote? Certainly I think most or all non-Muslim ethnic minorities voted Conservative over Labour in 2015. Not sure about 2017. To the extent that there is an imbalance, it can be explained by age - that is, the age profile of the white population is older, and hence tends to be more strongly Conservative. The Islamic vote is strongly Labour, but the Islamic vote <> the ethnic minority vote.
    The Conservatives did pretty badly with ethnic minorities this year: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/29/failing-win-ethnic-minority-vote-cost-theresa-may-28-seats-2017/

    With those numbers, they can’t only be doing badly with Muslim voters.

    Also this from 2015 doesn’t support most non-Muslim voters voting Conservative over Labour:
    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/06/12/are-conservatives-really-breaking-through-ethnic-m/

    I don’t think age explains it either. There is little evidence that hordes of older minorities vote Conservative over Labour.
    Most ethnic minority voters are left wing. That's true of all Western countries.
    Yet India has a right-wing government.
    BME voters vote differently in Western countries. I agree that many African and Asian countries have right wing governments.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2017
    Sean_F said:

    Cookie said:

    blueblue said:

    JWisemann said:

    What the actual F? I think NOT having said a few stupid things as a youth in another decade entirely on a niche forum of the type devoted to flippant chat should be a greater bar to office, as that would be very suspicious indeed ;)

    This sorry episode really is bringing out the worst of the unholy, wretched Stasi-esque alliance between the Jess Phillipses and Guido Fawkeses of this world.

    Beyond satire.

    Er, the Labour Party and the left in general live and breathe the social justice warrior creed. Pointing out their gross hypocrisy is valuable precisely because it exposes what an anti-human plague that creed is.
    Somehow, I don’t think this O’Mara thing is going to change minds in terms of political affiliation and voting intention.

    Particularly when many people still see the Conservatives as problematic on issues like these as well (such as their ongoing issues with ethnic minorities not voting Conservative in significant/large numbers).

    And they aren’t ‘social justice warriors’.
    I was under the iumpression that - the Islamic vote apart - there is no longer any massive imbalance in the ethnic minority vote? Certainly I think most or all non-Muslim ethnic minorities voted Conservative over Labour in 2015. Not sure about 2017. To the extent that there is an imbalance, it can be explained by age - that is, the age profile of the white population is older, and hence tends to be more strongly Conservative. The Islamic vote is strongly Labour, but the Islamic vote <> the ethnic minority vote.
    The Conservatives did pretty badly with ethnic minorities this year: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/29/failing-win-ethnic-minority-vote-cost-theresa-may-28-seats-2017/

    With those numbers, they can’t only be doing badly with Muslim voters.

    Also this from 2015 doesn’t support most non-Muslim voters voting Conservative over Labour:
    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/06/12/are-conservatives-really-breaking-through-ethnic-m/

    I don’t think age explains it either. There is little evidence that hordes of older minorities vote Conservative over Labour.
    Most ethnic minority voters are left wing. That's true of all Western countries.
    I think that's a misreading of the situation. They vote for left-wing parties not because they're left-wing per se but because they think they're most sympathetic to the interests of migrants.
  • Options
    nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    Sean_F said:

    JWisemann said:

    The other point is -- if a teacher had made these remarks, or a policeman, or a University lecturer -- would they not now be facing disciplinary action?

    You think anyone in the above roles should be made to answer disciplinary proceedings for something they said in a relatively private sphere half a lifetime ago, long before they were employed there? That a pretty terrifying view of the world you have there, and I want no part of it!
    I agree with you, but I think that you and I are very much out of touch with the times we live in.
    I think in private many people are fed up with this stuff. I don't care what someone said twenty years ago. But then again, that is a guess. Who knows what peoples private thoughts are. Everything you say is by default now public.

    Trouble is, which party is going to change this culture? no doubt it was one reason behind trumps success.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,953
    nielh said:

    Sean_F said:

    JWisemann said:

    The other point is -- if a teacher had made these remarks, or a policeman, or a University lecturer -- would they not now be facing disciplinary action?

    You think anyone in the above roles should be made to answer disciplinary proceedings for something they said in a relatively private sphere half a lifetime ago, long before they were employed there? That a pretty terrifying view of the world you have there, and I want no part of it!
    I agree with you, but I think that you and I are very much out of touch with the times we live in.
    I think in private many people are fed up with this stuff. I don't care what someone said twenty years ago. But then again, that is a guess. Who knows what peoples private thoughts are. Everything you say is by default now public.

    Trouble is, which party is going to change this culture? no doubt it was one reason behind trumps success.
    I think that many people are fed up to the back teeth with policing speech. But pressure groups are obsessed with it.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,953
    AndyJS said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cookie said:

    blueblue said:

    JWisemann said:

    What the actual F? I think NOT having said a few stupid things as a youth in another decade entirely on a niche forum of the type devoted to flippant chat should be a greater bar to office, as that would be very suspicious indeed ;)

    This sorry episode really is bringing out the worst of the unholy, wretched Stasi-esque alliance between the Jess Phillipses and Guido Fawkeses of this world.

    Beyond satire.

    Er, the Labour Party and the left in general live and breathe the social justice warrior creed. Pointing out their gross hypocrisy is valuable precisely because it exposes what an anti-human plague that creed is.
    Somehow, I don’t think this O’Mara thing is going to change minds in terms of political affiliation and voting intention.

    Particularly when many people still see the Conservatives as problematic on issues like these as well (such as their ongoing issues with ethnic minorities not voting Conservative in significant/large numbers).

    And they aren’t ‘social justice warriors’.
    I was under the iumpression that - the Islamic vote apart - there is no longer any massive imbalance in the ethnic minority vote? Certainly I think most or all non-Muslim ethnic minorities voted Conservative over Labour in 2015. Not sure about 2017. To the extent that there is an imbalance, it can be explained by age - that is, the age profile of the white population is older, and hence tends to be more strongly Conservative. The Islamic vote is strongly Labour, but the Islamic vote <> the ethnic minority vote.
    The Conservatives did pretty badly with ethnic minorities this year: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/29/failing-win-ethnic-minority-vote-cost-theresa-may-28-seats-2017/

    With those numbers, they can’t only be doing badly with Muslim voters.

    Also this from 2015 doesn’t support most non-Muslim voters voting Conservative over Labour:
    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/06/12/are-conservatives-really-breaking-through-ethnic-m/

    I don’t think age explains it either. There is little evidence that hordes of older minorities vote Conservative over Labour.
    Most ethnic minority voters are left wing. That's true of all Western countries.
    I think that's a misreading of the situation. They vote for left-wing parties not because they're left-wing per se but because they think they're most sympathetic to the interests of migrants.
    It's self reinforcing. Left wing parties see mass migration as a way of outnumbering their opponents.
  • Options
    brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    Scott_P said:
    Which government does she fear collapsing - hers or May's. She doesn't have a coalition deal yet and I expect the DUP are in this to the bitter end and for everything they can get including a hard Brexit (except with the Republic) so May may well be around for some time yet.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,160
    Sean_F said:

    Cookie said:

    blueblue said:

    JWisemann said:

    What the actual F? I think NOT having said a few stupid things as a youth in another decade entirely on a niche forum of the type devoted to flippant chat should be a greater bar to office, as that would be very suspicious indeed ;)

    This sorry episode really is bringing out the worst of the unholy, wretched Stasi-esque alliance between the Jess Phillipses and Guido Fawkeses of this world.

    Beyond satire.

    Er, the Labour Party and the left in general live and breathe the social justice warrior creed. Pointing out their gross hypocrisy is valuable precisely because it exposes what an anti-human plague that creed is.
    Somehow, I don’t think this O’Mara thing is going to change minds in terms of political affiliation and voting intention.

    Particularly when many people still see the Conservatives as problematic on issues like these as well (such as their ongoing issues with ethnic minorities not voting Conservative in significant/large numbers).

    And they aren’t ‘social justice warriors’.
    I was under the iumpression that - the Islamic vote apart - there is no longer any massive imbalance in the ethnic minority vote? Certainly I think most or all non-Muslim ethnic minorities voted Conservative over Labour in 2015. Not sure about 2017. To the extent that there is an imbalance, it can be explained by age - that is, the age profile of the white population is older, and hence tends to be more strongly Conservative. The Islamic vote is strongly Labour, but the Islamic vote <> the ethnic minority vote.
    The Conservatives did pretty badly with ethnic minorities this year: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/29/failing-win-ethnic-minority-vote-cost-theresa-may-28-seats-2017/

    With those numbers, they can’t only be doing badly with Muslim voters.

    Also this from 2015 doesn’t support most non-Muslim voters voting Conservative over Labour:
    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/06/12/are-conservatives-really-breaking-through-ethnic-m/

    I don’t think age explains it either. There is little evidence that hordes of older minorities vote Conservative over Labour.
    Most ethnic minority voters are left wing. That's true of all Western countries.
    Chinese and Hindu and Sikh voters do sometimes vote for rightwing parties, in 2015 for example the Tories won 29% of Asian voters, not miles behind the 37% they won nationwide.

    It is black, Muslim and Hispanic voters who tend to most consistently vote for leftwing parties.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,953
    brendan16 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Which government does she fear collapsing - hers or May's. She doesn't have a coalition deal yet and I expect the DUP are in this to the bitter end and for everything they can get including a hard Brexit (except with the Republic) so May may well be around for some time yet.
    It's hard to see any coherent government emerging in Germany.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,227
    Labour can’t or won’t kick out anti-Semites or Holocaust deniers. Why would they be bothered by a homophobe?
  • Options

    Sandpit said:

    As a Girls Aloud fan, I'm particularly angered by his comments.

    I saw Girls Aloud live six times, including their final ever gig.

    This might be the finest cover version ever

    ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GFVzQ9SaEj0

    No chance. This is the finest cover version ever.
    https://youtube.com/watch?v=wDe60CbIagg
    "I'm a bilingual illiterate - I can't read in two languages"
    Correct. Superb version. Always in my house mix too.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,064
    Sean_F said:

    Cookie said:

    blueblue said:

    JWisemann said:

    What the actual F? I think NOT having said a few stupid things as a youth in another decade entirely on a niche forum of the type devoted to flippant chat should be a greater bar to office, as that would be very suspicious indeed ;)

    This sorry episode really is bringing out the worst of the unholy, wretched Stasi-esque alliance between the Jess Phillipses and Guido Fawkeses of this world.

    Beyond satire.

    Er, the Labour Party and the left in general live and breathe the social justice warrior creed. Pointing out their gross hypocrisy is valuable precisely because it exposes what an anti-human plague that creed is.
    Somehow, I don’t think this O’Mara thing is going to change minds in terms of political affiliation and voting intention.

    Particularly when many people still see the Conservatives as problematic on issues like these as well (such as their ongoing issues with ethnic minorities not voting Conservative in significant/large numbers).

    And they aren’t ‘social justice warriors’.
    I was under the iumpression that - the Islamic vote apart - there is no longer any massive imbalance in the ethnic minority vote? Certainly I think most or all non-Muslim ethnic minorities voted Conservative over Labour in 2015. Not sure about 2017. To the extent that there is an imbalance, it can be explained by age - that is, the age profile of the white population is older, and hence tends to be more strongly Conservative. The Islamic vote is strongly Labour, but the Islamic vote <> the ethnic minority vote.
    The Conservatives did pretty badly with ethnic minorities this year: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/29/failing-win-ethnic-minority-vote-cost-theresa-may-28-seats-2017/

    With those numbers, they can’t only be doing badly with Muslim voters.

    Also this from 2015 doesn’t support most non-Muslim voters voting Conservative over Labour:
    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/06/12/are-conservatives-really-breaking-through-ethnic-m/

    I don’t think age explains it either. There is little evidence that hordes of older minorities vote Conservative over Labour.
    Most ethnic minority voters are left wing. That's true of all Western countries.
    Is that a consequence of them being (on average relatively) poor, or of them being ethnic minority?
  • Options
    AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869
    Cyclefree said:

    Labour can’t or won’t kick out anti-Semites or Holocaust deniers. Why would they be bothered by a homophobe?

    What puzzles me is, the circles I move in, people who aren't polite to others don't get very far. Who needs all this nastiness anyway? Reading the comments here, it seems lots of us think rudeness is normal.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,953
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cookie said:

    blueblue said:

    JWisemann said:

    What the actual F? I think NOT having said a few stupid things as a youth in another decade entirely on a niche forum of the type devoted to flippant chat should be a greater bar to office, as that would be very suspicious indeed ;)

    This sorry episode really is bringing out the worst of the unholy, wretched Stasi-esque alliance between the Jess Phillipses and Guido Fawkeses of this world.

    Beyond satire.

    Er, the Labour Party and the left in general live and breathe the social justice warrior creed. Pointing out their gross hypocrisy is valuable precisely because it exposes what an anti-human plague that creed is.
    Somehow, I don’t think this O’Mara thing is going to change minds in terms of political affiliation and voting intention.

    Particularly when many people still see the Conservatives as problematic on issues like these as well (such as their ongoing issues with ethnic minorities not voting Conservative in significant/large numbers).

    And they aren’t ‘social justice warriors’.
    I was under the iumpression that - the Islamic vote apart - there is no longer any massive imbalance in the ethnic minority vote? Certainly I think most or all non-Muslim ethnic minorities voted Conservative over Labour in 2015. Not sure about 2017. To the extent that there is an imbalance, it can be explained by age - that is, the age profile of the white population is older, and hence tends to be more strongly Conservative. The Islamic vote is strongly Labour, but the Islamic vote <> the ethnic minority vote.
    The Conservatives did pretty badly with ethnic minorities this year: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/29/failing-win-ethnic-minority-vote-cost-theresa-may-28-seats-2017/

    With those numbers, they can’t only be doing badly with Muslim voters.

    Also this from 2015 doesn’t support most non-Muslim voters voting Conservative over Labour:
    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/06/12/are-conservatives-really-breaking-through-ethnic-m/

    I don’t think age explains it either. There is little evidence that hordes of older minorities vote Conservative over Labour.
    Most ethnic minority voters are left wing. That's true of all Western countries.
    Is that a consequence of them being (on average relatively) poor, or of them being ethnic minority?
    I think both. That may shift. After all, 50 years ago, Jewish voters were massively Labour.
  • Options
    Cyclefree said:

    Labour can’t or won’t kick out anti-Semites or Holocaust deniers. Why would they be bothered by a homophobe?

    Nicely put.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    Scott_P said:
    Sounds sensible. The idea that we are not going to have a form of customs association with the EU, for goods, was always for the birds.

  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,953
    AnneJGP said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Labour can’t or won’t kick out anti-Semites or Holocaust deniers. Why would they be bothered by a homophobe?

    What puzzles me is, the circles I move in, people who aren't polite to others don't get very far. Who needs all this nastiness anyway? Reading the comments here, it seems lots of us think rudeness is normal.
    It is, on much of social media.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,160
    New Zealand's new Foreign Minister, Winston Peters, says a trade deal with the UK is 'an absolute priority.'
    "We already have the model of Closer Economic Relations (CER) with Australia... adding the UK would begin to transform this into Closer Commonwealth Economic Relations."
    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11663367
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2017
    AnneJGP said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Labour can’t or won’t kick out anti-Semites or Holocaust deniers. Why would they be bothered by a homophobe?

    What puzzles me is, the circles I move in, people who aren't polite to others don't get very far. Who needs all this nastiness anyway? Reading the comments here, it seems lots of us think rudeness is normal.
    The problem is the anonymity the internet grant to people. They can be nasty and get away with it.
  • Options
    AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869
    Sean_F said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Labour can’t or won’t kick out anti-Semites or Holocaust deniers. Why would they be bothered by a homophobe?

    What puzzles me is, the circles I move in, people who aren't polite to others don't get very far. Who needs all this nastiness anyway? Reading the comments here, it seems lots of us think rudeness is normal.
    It is, on much of social media.
    Antisocial media? I see ... How does that not feed through into face-to-face interactions?
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    blueblue said:

    JWisemann said:

    kle4 said:

    JWisemann said:

    Guido Fawkes isnt an equal opportunities hater. Staines is very well documented explaining how extreme his right wing views are. That he has somehow forged an unholy alliance with right wingers in Labour is much to the latter's discredit. His cosy symbiosis with the feral westminster media is less shocking.

    No one disputes he is right wing. But he does and has criticised Tories and UKIP on many occasions. Not as much as Labour, true, but it isn't the case that he is some reliable pro-Tory attack dog.
    He attacks the right a fraction of the time he attacks the left.

    His sociopathic attraction to any form of power, no matter how lowly and debased, means this doesn't preclude a few pops at individuals supposedly on his side.

    The overall effect is clear though - he is a pathetic peddler of sub-tabloid tittle-tattle of which the absolute vast majority is aimed at left wingers, in an attempt to debase the debate and distract from any sensible discussion of potentially popular left-leaning policies and the dIsintegration of Thatcherism.
    Well, obviously any tactic is justified if it helps keep the crazy commies from gaining ground. Duh!
    Which reminds me - the Vietnam series has been absolutely brilliant!
    It has indeed been superb. Plenty of lessons applicable today.
  • Options
    archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612
    HYUFD said:
    Why on earth is this bad news? A Canada type deal would mean no need to discuss FOM, no need to discuss ECJ, no need to discuss ongoing fees. Zero tariffs on virtually all items, UK free to make trade deals with whomever they like. This is exactly what the country voted for.

    The worst case, by far, is a deal where we try and replicate the SM and end up conceding on core matters of sovereignty. Why does anyone think that SM access is so much better than CETA?

    The real reason that we are being bullied into believing that we need to remain 'close' to the SM is so that the referendum result can one day be reversed. Once the UK has complete freedom, as achieved in a Canada style FTA, it will never be given up again.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,160

    blueblue said:

    JWisemann said:

    kle4 said:

    JWisemann said:

    Guido Fawkes isnt an equal opportunities hater. Staines is very well documented explaining how extreme his right wing views are. That he has somehow forged an unholy alliance with right wingers in Labour is much to the latter's discredit. His cosy symbiosis with the feral westminster media is less shocking.

    No one disputes he is right wing. But he does and has criticised Tories and UKIP on many occasions. Not as much as Labour, true, but it isn't the case that he is some reliable pro-Tory attack dog.
    He attacks the right a fraction of the time he attacks the left.

    His sociopathic attraction to any form of power, no matter how lowly and debased, means this doesn't preclude a few pops at individuals supposedly on his side.

    The overall effect is clear though - he is a pathetic peddler of sub-tabloid tittle-tattle of which the absolute vast majority is aimed at left wingers, in an attempt to debase the debate and distract from any sensible discussion of potentially popular left-leaning policies and the dIsintegration of Thatcherism.
    Well, obviously any tactic is justified if it helps keep the crazy commies from gaining ground. Duh!
    Which reminds me - the Vietnam series has been absolutely brilliant!
    It has indeed been superb. Plenty of lessons applicable today.
    Just watched the final 2 episodes, it was an excellent series.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,962
    AnneJGP said:

    What puzzles me is, the circles I move in, people who aren't polite to others don't get very far. Who needs all this nastiness anyway? Reading the comments here, it seems lots of us think rudeness is normal.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Online_disinhibition_effect

    It's a fair point. A few years ago I worked out I was getting a bit ranty, and these days I try to pull myself back. PB is difficult because it's sometimes difficult to separate the position
    from the person: for example was my discussion with @Hyufd about (my genuinely held opinion of) the ineptness of the current administration initiated by his defence of it, the fact that he's a Conservative party member, or simply my need to vent frustration at the government? Some of those stances are legitimate, some are not, and policing oneself is consequently difficult. Best to step away occasionally, I think.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,160
    edited October 2017

    HYUFD said:
    Why on earth is this bad news? A Canada type deal would mean no need to discuss FOM, no need to discuss ECJ, no need to discuss ongoing fees. Zero tariffs on virtually all items, UK free to make trade deals with whomever they like. This is exactly what the country voted for.

    The worst case, by far, is a deal where we try and replicate the SM and end up conceding on core matters of sovereignty. Why does anyone think that SM access is so much better than CETA?

    The real reason that we are being bullied into believing that we need to remain 'close' to the SM is so that the referendum result can one day be reversed. Once the UK has complete freedom, as achieved in a Canada style FTA, it will never be given up again.
    A Canada style FTA as the ultimate destination is neither complete hard Brexit nor Norway style single market and EEA so a middle way in some sense. Though I still think we may eventually rejoin EFTA albeit not the full EU.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,962

    Scott_P said:
    Why on earth is this bad news? A Canada type deal would mean no need to discuss FOM, no need to discuss ECJ, no need to discuss ongoing fees. Zero tariffs on virtually all items, UK free to make trade deals with whomever they like. This is exactly what the country voted for.

    The worst case, by far, is a deal where we try and replicate the SM and end up conceding on core matters of sovereignty. Why does anyone think that SM access is so much better than CETA?
    Unfortunately, it's not a simple as that (is it ever?). The question is not just which is best, but also which is achievable in the time remaining. We have, what, seventeen months left? We need to know what are the holes we need to plug, which are most important, how long would it take to plug them, and which ones do we need to do first. So although you may well be correct, if it can't get done in time, it's a problem.


  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,423
    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cookie said:

    blueblue said:

    JWisemann said:

    What the actual F? I think NOT having said a few stupid things as a youth in another decade entirely on a niche forum of the type devoted to flippant chat should be a greater bar to office, as that would be very suspicious indeed ;)

    This sorry episode really is bringing out the worst of the unholy, wretched Stasi-esque alliance between the Jess Phillipses and Guido Fawkeses of this world.

    Beyond satire.

    Er, the Labour Party and the left in general live and breathe the social justice warrior creed. Pointing out their gross hypocrisy is valuable precisely because it exposes what an anti-human plague that creed is.
    Somehow, I don’t think this O’Mara thing is going to change minds in terms of political affiliation and voting intention.

    Particularly when many people still see the Conservatives as problematic on issues like these as well (such as their ongoing issues with ethnic minorities not voting Conservative in significant/large numbers).

    And they aren’t ‘social justice warriors’.
    I was under the iumpression that - the Islamic vote apart - there is no longer any massive imbalance in the ethnic minority vote? Certainly I think most or all non-Muslim ethnic minorities voted Conservative over Labour in 2015. Not sure about 2017. To the extent that there is an imbalance, it can be explained by age - that is, the age profile of the white population is older, and hence tends to be more strongly Conservative. The Islamic vote is strongly Labour, but the Islamic vote <> the ethnic minority vote.
    The Conservatives did pretty badly with ethnic minorities this year: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/29/failing-win-ethnic-minority-vote-cost-theresa-may-28-seats-2017/

    With those numbers, they can’t only be doing badly with Muslim voters.

    Also this from 2015 doesn’t support most non-Muslim voters voting Conservative over Labour:
    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/06/12/are-conservatives-really-breaking-through-ethnic-m/

    I don’t think age explains it either. There is little evidence that hordes of older minorities vote Conservative over Labour.
    Most ethnic minority voters are left wing. That's true of all Western countries.
    Chinese and Hindu and Sikh voters do sometimes vote for rightwing parties, in 2015 for example the Tories won 29% of Asian voters, not miles behind the 37% they won nationwide.

    It is black, Muslim and Hispanic voters who tend to most consistently vote for leftwing parties.
    Sikhs are solidly Labour.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2017
    Correction to a comment I made earlier: I said the proposed boundaries made Sheffield Hallam a much safer Labour seat whereas in fact it's only slightly safer.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,160
    viewcode said:

    Scott_P said:
    Why on earth is this bad news? A Canada type deal would mean no need to discuss FOM, no need to discuss ECJ, no need to discuss ongoing fees. Zero tariffs on virtually all items, UK free to make trade deals with whomever they like. This is exactly what the country voted for.

    The worst case, by far, is a deal where we try and replicate the SM and end up conceding on core matters of sovereignty. Why does anyone think that SM access is so much better than CETA?
    Unfortunately, it's not a simple as that (is it ever?). The question is not just which is best, but also which is achievable in the time remaining. We have, what, seventeen months left? We need to know what are the holes we need to plug, which are most important, how long would it take to plug them, and which ones do we need to do first. So although you may well be correct, if it can't get done in time, it's a problem.


    The only 1 achievable in that timeframe is staying permanently in the single market and customs union and leaving free movement uncontrolled which is not going to happen. So most likely it will be a transition period for 2 years+ while a FTA is negotiated.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,160
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cookie said:

    blueblue said:

    JWisemann said:

    What the actual F? I think NOT having said a few stupid things as a youth in another decade entirely on a niche forum of the type devoted to flippant chat should be a greater bar to office, as that would be very suspicious indeed ;)

    This sorry episode really is bringing out the worst of the unholy, wretched Stasi-esque alliance between the Jess Phillipses and Guido Fawkeses of this world.

    Beyond satire.

    Er, the Labour Party and the left in general live and breathe the social justice warrior creed. Pointing out their gross hypocrisy is valuable precisely because it exposes what an anti-human plague that creed is.
    Somehow, I don’t think this O’Mara thing is going to change minds in terms of political affiliation and voting intention.

    Particularly when many people still see the Conservatives as problematic on issues like these as well (such as their ongoing issues with ethnic minorities not voting Conservative in significant/large numbers).

    And they aren’t ‘social justice warriors’.
    I was under the iumpression that - the Islamic vote apart - there is no longer any massive imbalance in the ethnic minority vote? Certainly I think most or all non-Muslim ethnic minorities voted Conservative over Labour in 2015. Not sure about 2017. To the extent that there is an imbalance, it can be explained by age - that is, the age profile of the white population is older, and hence tends to be more strongly Conservative. The Islamic vote is strongly Labour, but the Islamic vote <> the ethnic minority vote.
    The Conservatives did pretty badly with ethnic minorities this year: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/29/failing-win-ethnic-minority-vote-cost-theresa-may-28-seats-2017/

    With those numbers, they can’t only be doing badly with Muslim voters.

    Also this from Labour.
    Most ethnic minority voters are left wing. That's true of all Western countries.
    Chinese and Hindu and Sikh voters do sometimes vote for rightwing parties, in 2015 for example the Tories won 29% of Asian voters, not miles behind the 37% they won nationwide.

    It is black, Muslim and Hispanic voters who tend to most consistently vote for leftwing parties.
    Sikhs are solidly Labour.
    A 2015 survey had 31% of Sikhs voting Labour, 16% Tory though 40% were undecided.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31863060
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    HYUFD said:

    blueblue said:

    JWisemann said:

    kle4 said:

    JWisemann said:

    Guido Fawkes isnt an equal opportunities hater. Staines is very well documented explaining how extreme his right wing views are. That he has somehow forged an unholy alliance with right wingers in Labour is much to the latter's discredit. His cosy symbiosis with the feral westminster media is less shocking.

    No one disputes he is right wing. But he does and has criticised Tories and UKIP on many occasions. Not as much as Labour, true, but it isn't the case that he is some reliable pro-Tory attack dog.
    He attacks the right a fraction of the time he attacks the left.

    His sociopathic attraction to any form of power, no matter how lowly and debased, means this doesn't preclude a few pops at individuals supposedly on his side.

    The overall effect is clear though - he is a pathetic peddler of sub-tabloid tittle-tattle of which the absolute vast majority is aimed at left wingers, in an attempt to debase the debate and distract from any sensible discussion of potentially popular left-leaning policies and the dIsintegration of Thatcherism.
    Well, obviously any tactic is justified if it helps keep the crazy commies from gaining ground. Duh!
    Which reminds me - the Vietnam series has been absolutely brilliant!
    It has indeed been superb. Plenty of lessons applicable today.
    Just watched the final 2 episodes, it was an excellent series.
    A cousin of mine was there for 2 years with the Australian forces. He developed a very strange neurological condotion, which he blamed on exposure to agent orange.

    He was a changed person. From gung ho soldier to peacenik.
  • Options
    Also, I saw this tweet a few weeks ago which made me think once again, why do some think that this ‘new generation’ of Tories will win over the under 40s:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/hugogye/status/917816543714693120

    I don’t see a message of ‘we need less regulation’ winning over young voters.
  • Options
    brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited October 2017
    HYUFD said:

    New Zealand's new Foreign Minister, Winston Peters, says a trade deal with the UK is 'an absolute priority.'
    "We already have the model of Closer Economic Relations (CER) with Australia... adding the UK would begin to transform this into Closer Commonwealth Economic Relations."
    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11663367

    Quite interesting to see Winston Peters as foreign minister - it's a bit like Nigel Farage getting the job here.

    Will the new government also listen to the 82 per cent of Kiwis who when polled wanted freedom of movement with the UK. We already are the only nation bar the Aussies which has a reciprocal health agreement with New Zealand. Bring it on Winston and give new Zealanders what they want?!
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,797

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    JWisemann said:

    The other point is -- if a teacher had made these remarks, or a policeman, or a University lecturer -- would they not now be facing disciplinary action?

    You think anyone in the above roles should be made to answer disciplinary proceedings for something they said in a relatively private sphere half a lifetime ago, long before they were employed there? That a pretty terrifying view of the world you have there, and I want no part of it!
    I am saying that if a policeman or a teacher or a university lecturer were found to have made those remarks, they would be facing disciplinary action.

    I am stating what would happen, that is all. Neither agreeing, nor disagreeing, just stating.

    If you or Jared think the web is a "relatively private sphere", then you are guilty of nuclear-grade stupidity. There is no known cure.
    Had they made such remarks before they were either teachers or policemen, how could they possibly be facing disciplinary action - unless they had lied on application for the job ?

    I don't take the view that time heals everything - but equally *if* it's an isolated youthful mistake, subsequently regretted, then it ought not to condemn someone forever.
    I think it is likely that a teacher or policeman or university lecturer would be facing disciplinary action.

    If the remarks were made before they were in the job, the disciplinary action would probably take that into account & demand evidence of change of heart, or recommend attending suitable courses.

    Look at it the other way. If a policeman, or teacher, carried out homophobic bullying in their job, and there was history on the web of this before they were appointed, the institution would face an shit-avalanche along the lines ... "You knew he was a homophobe, there is material on the web, you did nothing about it and X was able to continue with this activity as a teacher .."
    Then the responsibility would surely be on the employer to conduct better pre-employment screening - which might include social media ?
    AFAIK, absent any criminal conviction, there is no obligation on a prospective employee to disclose indiscretions of this nature - unless specifically requested to do so.
    If information comes to light after a teacher has been employed that she or he had made sexist/homophobic remarks, then the institution would be in dereliction of its duty of care to students if they did not investigate.
    I don't disagree with that - but that's hardly the same thing as facing disciplinary action for something said a decade ago, before they were employed.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,132
    brendan16 said:

    HYUFD said:

    New Zealand's new Foreign Minister, Winston Peters, says a trade deal with the UK is 'an absolute priority.'
    "We already have the model of Closer Economic Relations (CER) with Australia... adding the UK would begin to transform this into Closer Commonwealth Economic Relations."
    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11663367

    Quite interesting to see Winston Peters as foreign minister - it's a bit like Nigel Farage getting the job here.

    Will the new government also listen to the 82 per cent of Kiwis who when polled wanted freedom of movement with the UK. We already are the only nation bar the Aussies which has a reciprocal health agreement with New Zealand. Bring it on Winston and give new Zealanders what they want?!
    Not sure he'd go down well with the Tory right.
    https://twitter.com/winstonpeters/status/883470195896983552
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,797
    Given that he has - apparently at least - disavowed these views, the case does also raise the issue of the "right to be forgotten".
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Right_to_be_forgotten
  • Options
    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited October 2017
    Nigelb said:



    I don't disagree with that - but that's hardly the same thing as facing disciplinary action for something said a decade ago, before they were employed.

    Well, I am not quite sure what you expect a school or University to do.

    They would probably suspend someone on full pay while they investigate. They would come to a decision, which for mild offences might be attendance at some compulsory training.

    To be honest, I am less concerned about what the rules are. I just want the same rules for MPs as teachers, policemen, lecturers, etc -- or at least the same standards.

    I just don't like MPs giving themselves all the breaks.

  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,029
    brendan16 said:

    HYUFD said:

    New Zealand's new Foreign Minister, Winston Peters, says a trade deal with the UK is 'an absolute priority.'
    "We already have the model of Closer Economic Relations (CER) with Australia... adding the UK would begin to transform this into Closer Commonwealth Economic Relations."
    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11663367

    Quite interesting to see Winston Peters as foreign minister - it's a bit like Nigel Farage getting the job here.

    Will the new government also listen to the 82 per cent of Kiwis who when polled wanted freedom of movement with the UK. We already are the only nation bar the Aussies which has a reciprocal health agreement with New Zealand. Bring it on Winston and give new Zealanders what they want?!
    Peters wants immigration reduced by 85% and Ardern campaigned on reducing it by about 40% so I really doubt FoM with the UK is on the agenda.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,797

    Nigelb said:



    I don't disagree with that - but that's hardly the same thing as facing disciplinary action for something said a decade ago, before they were employed.

    Well, I am not quite sure what you expect a school or University to do.

    They would probably suspend someone on full pay while they investigate. They would come to a decision, which for mild offences might be attendance at some compulsory training...

    Should the individual in question have explicitly apologised for, and disavowed comments they made fifteen years ago, before they were employed in the profession (as appears to be the case here), I don't see that there could have all that much to investigate.
    Had they made the comments while employed as a teacher, then it would be a different matter.

    The court of public opinion is,of course, something else.
    FWIW, I hold no brief for this guy - but it does seem reasonable that he should be entitled to be judged on whether he's a dickhead today, as opposed to fifteen years ago, before he was an active politician.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    No doubt we’ve all said or done foolish things in the past - and as long as it stays in the past then I have difficulty getting worked up over it. Would Labour have been better off getting rid of Ed Balls?

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1286627/Ed-Balls-forgets-Tory-Oxford-dressed-Nazi.html

    It’s his recent record and comments I’d be more interested in - not something from 15 years ago....
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:



    I don't disagree with that - but that's hardly the same thing as facing disciplinary action for something said a decade ago, before they were employed.

    Well, I am not quite sure what you expect a school or University to do.

    They would probably suspend someone on full pay while they investigate. They would come to a decision, which for mild offences might be attendance at some compulsory training...

    he should be entitled to be judged on whether he's a dickhead today, as opposed to fifteen years ago, before he was an active politician.
    Agree - if there are more contemporary comments in a similar vein he’s a dead man walking and his “folly of youth” defence is blown out of the water....

This discussion has been closed.