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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Just two months left for Corbyn to achieve his Glastonbury boast – becoming PM by Christmas
Just on four months ago, after the LAB leader’s extraordinary reception at Glastonbury, the festival chief, Michael Eavis, reported that Corbyn had told him that he’d be PM within six months and that he would scrap Britain’s Trident nuclear defence system as soon as he could.
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Unless the Tories find a magic money tree north of the border, which of course is what will happen.
Corbyn continually makes promises that are unrealistic/undeliverable obviously.
So far the calculations of Kahn and Burnham that it was better to give up on Parliament and get a position where you could actually do things have been vindicated, albeit by much smaller margins than they anticipated. Will they look to get back to Westminster some time before 2021? Will they be allowed to? I think these will be important questions in the larger question of what happens next.
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/more-red-faces-scottish-labour-11391658
Mr Gravity came calling rather abruptly on Mrs May....he’ll be getting around to Mr Corbyn sooner or later....
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/jubilant-corbyn-celebrates-defeat-by-an-idiot-20170609129135
From the 1850s to the 1980s we greatly produced milk until eventually we were grossly over producing. The regime in the CAP was very conducive to producing milk - indeed that was why many farmers supported going into the Common Market. The changes to the CAP from 1983 EVENTUALLY ended that. When I was growing up in the 1970s there were towards 100 dairy cows entered most weeks in Hawes, now they can hardly raise three decent beef sales in the year.
So, you ask ?? All this land went mainly but not entirely into sheep production. My late father and I went more into beef but that is more labour intensive.
Quite frankly I do not believe the view that we are not able to be self sufficient in red meat production, pigmeat, sheepmeat, beef very quickly. I think you all know that I was and am a moderately enthusiastic leaver. However the farming industry did and does have very real worries. IF there is even a short term shortage of redmeat then we were all worrying unnecessarily.
I am concerned by the level of sheep meat production in the UK - it is too high. Some of this edge can be taken off very quickly - it will have to be - by movement into beef. This is NOT unreasonable - the areas which would move were producing milk and dairy cattle even into the 1990s. You do see some movement perhaps occurring - centred around the resurgent Beef Shorthorn. These things come full circle - how we celebrated in 1968 when we got rid of our last shorthorn cow ! There is some investment in cattle handling sheds - that has been helped outside national parks by the very wise planning policy of allowing traditional farm buildings to be converted into houses. It is unfortunate that our national parks have so strongly resisted this change.
http://www.leeds.ac.uk/download/481/british_food_makers_report
What I found surprising was how few orchards are left. Given that many in Gloucestershire are still standing, the loss elsewhere must have been dramatic.
It was a very eventful and exciting race yesterday. Because I knew I'd forget most of the detail overnight I made notes during the race so the post-race tosh may be a bit more precise than usual. One bet came off, the other didn't but that was a bit unlucky.
The early tips all failed, but that was mostly because Verstappen had a huge penalty and Ricciardo had a DNF (the Vettel DNF was just wrong, though not without reason).
The challenge I see to UK farming is that without significant subsidies there is a lot of land that cannot compete in the world market producing anything. In industry we simply stop making such things but are we really willing to let a lot of our marginal land fall out of production and be neglected?
better for the environment and wildlife
For the poultry sector the situation is more complex that it is portrayed on the nice media. Even when I grew up many if not most farms had a small flock of hens and perhaps ducks, geese and turkeys. As well as egg production there was also some meat for the autumn and Christmas trades. This was completely throttled and killed off by Bernard Matthews et al who built enormous sheds and stuffed them with chicken and turkeys. They couldn't find enough employees to do the plucking, gutting and post-production stuff so they brought them in from Europe. Unbelievably there are still a few family producers just about around. You won't see them interviewed on Countryfile but it can only be good for them if the big producers can't import their labour as that will stop them undercutting them for the first time in a generation.
I can give you my views on agricultural support after Brexit as well if you want - but only if you want it !
The current moves are a reflection of the lack of confidence or direction in this government but if we do get more radical steps taken on housing, for example, that will be a good thing.
Firstly, noone won the election. Secondly, it is all about direction of travel, and any analysis of Corbyn's performance has to be taken in the round of its overall context, as a battle in a movement to chamge the political landscape rather than the narrow and puerile view of 'red teams' and 'blue teams'.
In a political landscape where the (convenient for the minority doing very well out of the current setup) prevailing view in the westminster bubble at least was that anything to the left of Thatcher was completely unelectable, the 2017 was a stupendous step forward for those believing otherwise -
The largest increase in vote since 1945 (after a 2 yr parliament)
The second largest number of votes and third highest vote share in at least 4 decades
The crippling of a supposedly resurgent tory government below the waterline
The critical wounding of the post-Thatcherite cross-party consensus
A stake through the heart of the supposed power of the UK's feral right-wing press
All of these facts are why Corbyn supporters see 2017 as victory in a key battle of a longer war.
He might have more influence on Brexit negotiations if he could sort out exactly what his own policy is - but with his own shadow cabinet even more confused than the actual cabinet that seems unlikely.
I'd be pissed off if I'd tipped Verstappen for a podium.
I do not expect starving Britons, but fresh vegetables, fruit, salad, and meats may be disrupted. Calorie wise it will be fine. In the longer term our farmers can fill some of the gaps, but if a thaw occured in EU trade and those supplies were restored, their investment would be down the drain.
Is all this disruption worthwhile? to what end? We lose more than we gain.
Certainly a reversion to scrub would not be good for wildlife. Just look at the under-owned land adjoining the west coast main line through the south of England. Otherwise look at what happended to the cleared farms in the Foot and Mouth year of 2001. No, we don't want to go down that route.
That gets us into agricultural support and I wasn't wanting to go there today - I haven't the time. If you are willing to let farmers build on their land then the market will balance itself.
Are you ?
However, it is also worth remembering that Labour still failed to get 40% of the vote (polls that show them doing so are because of a rounding error at 39.99%) and still need to win 64 seats to command a majority. They have only done that once since 1945 (in 1997, although they came very close in 1964 which is probably a better parallel). So it is a tall ask.
You also wonder a bit whether voters who were put off by all the baggage Corbyn carries will be convinced by him next time when he will be even older and may have lost some of his remarkable energy. Moreover, the longer this parliament goes on the longer some potentially really damaging scandals about two of his shadow cabinet colleagues have to emerge. Even if they were to emerge without damaging Corbyn's personal image, he's more or less run or of potential replacements given the grudges he is holding against Ed Miliband's shadow cabinet.
So although Labour are in a much better position than anyone expected, they still have a lot of work to do.
I’d be mightily peeved if I’d backed Max for a podium.
UKIP drove the national agenda from outside parliament, now Jezza is doing the same. This is a Tory government in office, but not in power.
Miliband's tragedy was that he often had pretty good ideas, but couldn't clearly explain how or why they should be put into practice or what effect they would have. His much bigger tragedy however, and what killed his career, was the referendum in Scotland. He did make a net gain of twelve seats in England and Wales, but the Ajockalypse made him look (unfairly) like a worse loser than Brown.
2007 - Brown (see Sion Simon)
2008 - Cameron (see Tatler Tories)
2009 - David Miliband
2010 - Clegg
2012 - Ed Miliband
2015 - Osborne
2016 - May
2017 - Corbyn
Plus similar things relating to Scotland, USA etc.
I doubt the end of history has arrived yet so I wonder who the next big thing will be.
@REWearmouth: If parliament rejects the Brexit deal then second ref should be an option, Sadiq Khan tells #R4Today
The consequence of voting it down would be leaving with no deal. There is no mechanism for us to unilaterally extend Article 50. We are leaving whether we like it or not now - we're committed. If we reject the deal, we leave on WTO terms.
Whether Labour have twigged that simple truth yet is another question.
Likewise, the infamous bikiniphobe is trying to curry favour with Londoners.
Mr. Roger, even as a silly comment, that's not the kind of thing an adult should be writing. Get back to me when Leave voters support the crucifixion of children and burning people alive.
Mr. Doethur, hmm. You may be correct. But the second referendum line is one that Labour is pushing, and I do wonder if the friend of Hamas asked the eurocrats about this when he was busy undermining British interests in Brussels recently.
Jezza faced the bullies and was able to offer a clear alternative which the Tories are now enacting. Jezza ended austerity.
This is of course also true of any deal we reach.
1. Some of our elderly population who haven't spent much time at school don't have to listen to foreigners speaking foreign on British soil.
2. Pass
3. Pass
4. Pass
Ed Miliband was bad at explaining things, but while some of his proposals were undesirable none were ludicrous. Corbyn deliberately promised the moon on a stick, and unless he was actually as stupid as he looks then he must have known it was undeliverable (and please do not repeat that his manifesto was costed - that was the most transparent political lie since Hitler described himself as satisfied by the Munich agreeement). It did however win him support by those feeling the squeeze and that is why some slackening is now inevitable.
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/922214615139971072
Morning all.
The likelihood of those long term optimists hanging on to those view if/when we take a short term painful hit post Brexit seems pretty slim.
And in any event, the electorate gets to take a view every five years.
Can't see that figure turning round particularly soon, if ever.
Corbyn is quite within his rights to visit Brussels if invited and it's not a question of undermining anyone. He represents a strong strand of opinion and may well be the Prime Minister of the Government left to deal with the consequences of A50.
Once again people fall into the easy trap of belittling the notion of the "Second Referendum". Calling it that as an attempted pejorative doesn't alter the fact it's not a "Second" anything. What is being argued for (quite rightly) is the right to have a say on whatever Treaty David Davis brings back from the A50 negotiations.
The other widely held assumption worth challenging is that A50 cannot be stopped. If both the EU27 and the UK wanted it stopped, paused or extended, I suspect they could fashion an agreement to that end.
In that context, a decision to reject the Treaty could be linked to a request to extend the A50 period for further negotiation or to put the whole process on hold pending, for example, a General Election. Conversely, there are those who argue rejecting the A50 Treaty means leaving the EU with no agreement (this is an option favoured by those, who, to borrow from the song, would say, to the EU (slightly falsetto I might add) "We owe you nothing, ooer, nothing at all".
So, just as those who voted LEAVE on 23/6/16 did so for a wide range of reasons, those seeking to reject the A50 Treaty come from a number of differing viewpoints. The clarity, as before, will come from explaining what a rejection of the A50 Treaty will mean as distinct from what it could mean or what you'd like it to mean.
There's also the not unreasonable prospect that even if the A50 Treaty negotiated by Davis is passed, a future Government might seek to re-negotiate elements of it without of course seeking to re-join the EU - as an example, May herself said guarantees on workers' rights and conditions were only valid during her leadership and a future Conservative leader might seek to change those.
Of course ever increasing imports 'paid' for with borrowed money is regarded as a sign of economic strength by the Osborne cheerleaders.
That said, I've been complaining about the absurd hubris and anti facts/history/reality politics of His disciples for months - too many of the new members think only one moon on a stick is too little, we should offer at least two moons on a nationalised stick. They genuinely do this k the Tories will collapse and Jezbollah will be PM and the Tories will be banished. It's stupid, and the longer this doesn't happen the more agitated they feel about how the system has stolen their victory.
The Tories may well collapse - their coalition (i mean internal, not with the DUP) is increasingly flaky - so an early election is not impossible especially if Events Dear Boy conspire against the government. But like OGH I've come to the view that the election will likely be in 2022. Which will be JCs age by then...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41717394
Mr. Stodge, there's plenty of incompetence and naked self-interest on the Conservative side (I've repeatedly disparaged the ambitious cretin that is Boris Johnson). That doesn't make Starmer's idiocy (we'll accept any deal the EU offers) any better.
Its always worth remembering that the under 40s who were so enthusiastic about staying in the EC in 1975 became the over 60s who were so enthusaiastic about leaving the EU in 2016.
http://www.elperiodico.com/es/politica/20171022/encuesta-elecciones-cataluna-6371299
This comes on the back of other polling published in the same newspaper which shows majority opposition to UDI and strong support for a negotiated settlement that leaves Catalonia inside Spain.
http://www.elperiodico.com/es/politica/20171020/encuesta-cataluna-6368599
However, another poll shows a fall in support for parties backing independence:
http://www.electograph.com/2017/10/cataluna-sondeo-nc-report-autonomicas.html
Basically, it's nip and tuck.
The trick is how to get to the point where Catalans are voting in a referendum on more autonomy rather than in an election about independence. If the PP had any sense whatsoever - which it has demonstrated time and again it doesn't - it would be using the next few months to work out a new constitutional settlement with the other major Spanish parties that would mean the next Catalan election was framed around an offer of Basque-level self-government for Catalonia, rather than separation. This is what PSOE had agreed with the Catalans 10 years ago and which they back overwhelmingly in a referendum before PP scuppered it.
Meanwhile, Spain-wide polling continues to show that PP is getting no benefit from the Catalonia crisis.
https://twitter.com/Electograph/status/922022699672784898
That's why Labour's suggestion that they would block a 'no deal Brexit' in Parliament is either dishonest or insane - it's not up to us to decide whether we revoke A50 or not.
https://twitter.com/MartinSelmayr/status/922347332531900416
That level of authoritarianism coupled with technical ignorance is alarming, and mirrors precisely the moronic pronouncements of May and Rudd. Technology isn't magic. As someone halfway to being a Luddite, it's disconcerting and disturbing when I seem to have a better understanding of technology than politicians seeking to pass laws and regulations governing said technology.
Going into the next election, the party with the massive structural issues at its heart will be Labour.
Perhaps you think that wasn't high enough ?
Maybe ever more imported consumer tat is a good thing when the UK had a £115bn current account deficit in 2016.
Or perhaps we should listen to what Geoerge Osborne said in 2010 about 'borrowing money from China to buy things made in China'.
I just ask because I imagine Morocco would be less than thrilled by such a provision being enforced should the two cities vote to return to it.
IF the A50 Treaty is rejected, we could walk away OR we could go back to the EU, ask to pause or extend A50 and re-commence negotiations with a view to finding a better deal. This notion there's a two-year time limit and that's it has to be challenged. There's absolutely nothing to stop an extension by mutual agreement (we're already being softened up for it by use of words like "transition") and I don't know why, if further negotiations couldn't achieve a workable outcome, that time wouldn't be available.
Labour's stance isn't without some credibility - IF Davis comes back with a deal, Labour will support it (even if some Conservatives won't). If Davis comes back without a deal, what would there be a vote on ?
To say Labour would support "any deal" is simplistic partisan sniping. Let's turn it round - would Conservatives support "any deal" brought back by a Conservative Prime Minister ? I suspect most would especially if the vote was seen as effectively a vote of Confidence in May and the Government so disparaging Labour for suspending their critical faculties is one thing - let's see the Conservative response.