Are there any hard Brexit backers on PB though, apart from maybe yourself and Alanbrooke? Certainly there are a number of Leave backers like RCS and SeanT and Richard Tyndall but most of those backed soft Brexit.
40-45% of the country backs hard Brexit, I would say barely 10% of PBers at best
Even I'm on the fence, to be honest....
We could certainly do with a few more posters who take that view to ensure it is properly represented, perhaps OGH should put an up an advert in Thanet or Clacton!
Do you have any evidence to back up the claim that 40-45% back hard Brexit?
Portillo seems to have shifted his view significantly on Brexit. He's now saying we didn't need to have the referendum because being out of the Euro was sufficiently detached from 'the project'.
Are there any hard Brexit backers on PB though, apart from maybe yourself and Sunil and Alanbrooke? Certainly there are a number of other former Leave voters like RCS and SeanT and Richard Tyndall but most of those back soft Brexit.
40-45% of the country backs hard Brexit, I would say barely 10% of PBers at best
Are there any hard Brexit backers on PB though, apart from maybe yourself and Alanbrooke? Certainly there are a number of Leave backers like RCS and SeanT and Richard Tyndall but most of those backed soft Brexit.
40-45% of the country backs hard Brexit, I would say barely 10% of PBers at best
Even I'm on the fence, to be honest....
We could certainly do with a few more posters who take that view to ensure it is properly represented, perhaps OGH should put an up an advert in Thanet or Clacton!
Do you have any evidence to back up the claim that 40-45% back hard Brexit?
Chris Grayling again showing that when Brexiteers talk about "no deal", they don't actually MEAN "no deal". He just blithely asserted that planes will keep flying no matter what, even though that will require some kind of deal to achieve that.
You write as though the EU would treat the UK as some sort of pariah state on a par with Syria or North Korea, rather than say Canada.
I'm not assuming that at all. It may well be that the EU are more than willing to do a standalone deal with us on airspace. But it would still be a deal, which is why it's disingenuous for people like Grayling to simultaneously say "no deal" will be fine but that the planes will still keep flying.
Chris Grayling again showing that when Brexiteers talk about "no deal", they don't actually MEAN "no deal". He just blithely asserted that planes will keep flying no matter what, even though that will require some kind of deal to achieve that.
Don't planes currently fly between non-EU nations?
Indeed they do because there is a deal. So we would be talking about No Deal with rather a lot of deals attached. A No Deal Deal if you will. The question is whether a No Deal Deal No Deal is better than a bad deal.
Even if there is no deal on an FTA, there will still need to be some A50 deal. Citizens rights will need to be done and there will need to be agreements on a whole host of issues that relate to trade under WTO rules.
Best option right now is to tell the EU that we will run two sets of talks - preparations for WTO (which will not involve any discussion of the Brexit Bill) and, if they like, a second strand to talk about a better outcome with an FTA with a possible transition period and discussion of the Brexit bill.
It is only the endless fear mongering of the remainers that has prevented the Government facing the reality that we have to look at WTO as the default outcome.
Are there any hard Brexit backers on PB though, apart from maybe yourself and Sunil and Alanbrooke? Certainly there are a number of other former Leave voters like RCS and SeanT and Richard Tyndall but most of those back soft Brexit.
40-45% of the country backs hard Brexit, I would say barely 10% of PBers at best
There's no such thing as "soft Brexit". The EU don't want to negotiate on anything and won't budge until the UK stumps up a load of money for nothing whatsoever, which of course is completely unacceptable.
Best get the things sorted so we won't have our planes grounded etc. and just get on with it.
Guess I can add you to the hard Brexit tent in the PB camp then.
It's not that I want it, I just can't see how it is possible to avoid it. The EU won't negotiate ANYTHING at all. What exactly is the government supposed to do?
Are there any hard Brexit backers on PB though, apart from maybe yourself and Alanbrooke? Certainly there are a number of Leave backers like RCS and SeanT and Richard Tyndall but most of those backed soft Brexit.
40-45% of the country backs hard Brexit, I would say barely 10% of PBers at best
Even I'm on the fence, to be honest....
We could certainly do with a few more posters who take that view to ensure it is properly represented, perhaps OGH should put an up an advert in Thanet or Clacton!
Do you have any evidence to back up the claim that 40-45% back hard Brexit?
Are there any hard Brexit backers on PB though, apart from maybe yourself and Sunil and Alanbrooke? Certainly there are a number of other former Leave voters like RCS and SeanT and Richard Tyndall but most of those back soft Brexit.
40-45% of the country backs hard Brexit, I would say barely 10% of PBers at best
Are there any hard Brexit backers on PB though, apart from maybe yourself and Alanbrooke? Certainly there are a number of Leave backers like RCS and SeanT and Richard Tyndall but most of those backed soft Brexit.
40-45% of the country backs hard Brexit, I would say barely 10% of PBers at best
Even I'm on the fence, to be honest....
We could certainly do with a few more posters who take that view to ensure it is properly represented, perhaps OGH should put an up an advert in Thanet or Clacton!
Do you have any evidence to back up the claim that 40-45% back hard Brexit?
It would be nice to get a poll on how many people support us walking away from negotiations until the EU start being reasonable.
Indeed, walk away and pay nothing would be incredibly popular and not just with leavers.
Not so popular when the consequences impact on the same people though
No indeed, but the current negotiations are just embarrassing to national morale. A walkout and a replay of "up yours delors" would boost the Tories by close to 10 points.
Are there any hard Brexit backers on PB though, apart from maybe yourself and Alanbrooke? Certainly there are a number of Leave backers like RCS and SeanT and Richard Tyndall but most of those backed soft Brexit.
40-45% of the country backs hard Brexit, I would say barely 10% of PBers at best
Even I'm on the fence, to be honest....
We could certainly do with a few more posters who take that view to ensure it is properly represented, perhaps OGH should put an up an advert in Thanet or Clacton!
Do you have any evidence to back up the claim that 40-45% back hard Brexit?
It would be nice to get a poll on how many people support us walking away from negotiations until the EU start being reasonable.
Indeed, walk away and pay nothing would be incredibly popular and not just with leavers.
A further risk in the EU's negotiating stance is that UK public opinion hardens in favour of an attitude of good riddance in response to being so blatantly messed about.
I hate to interrupt the Brexit fest, but if I wanted to place a bet in the thousands of pounds range, how would I go about it?
As previously discussed, I distrust online betting. So previously I've done my betting by going into a betting shop like a proper grownup and going up to the counter to fill out the slip. That was fine in the days of Brexit ref & 2015 GE, but these days all the election bets are on foreign elections and the girl/guy behind the counter gets confused by that foreign muck (it was a total arse placing a bet on Macron: she had to call in the manager). I don't want to be waving a bunch of fifties in front of somebody who gets flustered, betting is scary enough as is. Is there a shop or something that has a politics-savvy frontperson?
Are there any hard Brexit backers on PB though, apart from maybe yourself and Sunil and Alanbrooke? Certainly there are a number of other former Leave voters like RCS and SeanT and Richard Tyndall but most of those back soft Brexit.
40-45% of the country backs hard Brexit, I would say barely 10% of PBers at best
Chris Grayling again showing that when Brexiteers talk about "no deal", they don't actually MEAN "no deal". He just blithely asserted that planes will keep flying no matter what, even though that will require some kind of deal to achieve that.
You write as though the EU would treat the UK as some sort of pariah state on a par with Syria or North Korea, rather than say Canada.
But let's assume you're right. Just as with the trade in goods, the trade in tourism is currently massively imbalanced in the EU's favour. In the case of Spain, the collapse of tourist flights between the UK and EU would cause a huge economic collapse of a key industry and an associated weakening of property prices in resorts that could have wider ramifications. The same risks apply in varying degrees to the likes of Greece, Cyprus, Malta, Italy, France, Austria..... etc. By contrast, reverse risks to UK tourism would be more than offset by the numbers choosing to take staycations here.
Effects like that would take months to show up, and therefore wouldn't have time to. The cessation of air travel to and from the entire country would cause the government to fall within days, ushering in a labour govt which would have no choice other than unconditional surrender to the EU and probably calling in the IMF.
Chris Grayling again showing that when Brexiteers talk about "no deal", they don't actually MEAN "no deal". He just blithely asserted that planes will keep flying no matter what, even though that will require some kind of deal to achieve that.
You write as though the EU would treat the UK as some sort of pariah state on a par with Syria or North Korea, rather than say Canada.
I'm not assuming that at all. It may well be that the EU are more than willing to do a standalone deal with us on airspace. But it would still be a deal, which is why it's disingenuous for people like Grayling to simultaneously say "no deal" will be fine but that the planes will still keep flying.
Right - so the issue of access to airspace is another overblown red herring courtesy of scaremongering Remainers.
Are there any hard Brexit backers on PB though, apart from maybe yourself and Sunil and Alanbrooke? Certainly there are a number of other former Leave voters like RCS and SeanT and Richard Tyndall but most of those back soft Brexit.
40-45% of the country backs hard Brexit, I would say barely 10% of PBers at best
Are there any hard Brexit backers on PB though, apart from maybe yourself and Sunil and Alanbrooke? Certainly there are a number of other former Leave voters like RCS and SeanT and Richard Tyndall but most of those back soft Brexit.
40-45% of the country backs hard Brexit, I would say barely 10% of PBers at best
There's no such thing as "soft Brexit". The EU don't want to negotiate on anything and won't budge until the UK stumps up a load of money for nothing whatsoever, which of course is completely unacceptable.
Best get the things sorted so we won't have our planes grounded etc. and just get on with it.
Guess I can add you to the hard Brexit tent in the PB camp then.
It's not that I want it, I just can't see how it is possible to avoid it. The EU won't negotiate ANYTHING at all. What exactly is the government supposed to do?
Either cough up £65 billion or walk I agree
But cough up £65bn for what? They just want us to pay it and then we might get something or might get nothing at all. That's not a negotiation it's a mugging.
The EU are acting like coming up with a reasonable deal isn't in the best interests of both parties. They really are a bunch of wankers.
How the fuck did our spineless politicians sign us up to being in this organisation in the first place against the wishes of the majority of voters.
Chris Grayling again showing that when Brexiteers talk about "no deal", they don't actually MEAN "no deal". He just blithely asserted that planes will keep flying no matter what, even though that will require some kind of deal to achieve that.
Don't planes currently fly between non-EU nations?
Yes, but, as far as I know, it requires "deals" of some kind.
Such as?
I saw an expert talking about this in summer 2016 she thought flights wouldn't be a problem because of the European Common Aviation Area. I can't remember her name, but it was on either Victoria Derbyshire or Daily Politics, I think, if someone can find it.
Over to the lawyers, but it doesn't appear to be the case that by leaving the EU we automatically leave this Agreement. Article 50 seems to take you out "Treaties" which seems to be defined as TEU and TFEU. On first glance neither seem to supercede this agreement?
The ECAA has a separate termination mechanism of its own (Article 31), so unless by triggering Article 50 we are implied to have triggered the termination mechanism here, presumably this agreement continues in force? The sting in the tail is that the ECJ is the arbiter on disputes.
In any case, even if we do leave this agreement in the future - Article 31 seems to give us a grace period to put in place new arrangements:
Article 31: Each Contracting Party may denounce this Agreement by notifying the depository. [...] If this Agreement is denounced by any other Contracting Party it shall cease to be in force only with respect to such Contracting Party one year after the date of notification. However, air services operated at the date of expiry of this Agreement may continue until the end of the International Air Transport Association (IATA) scheduling season into which that date of expiry falls.
Are there any hard Brexit backers on PB though, apart from maybe yourself and Sunil and Alanbrooke? Certainly there are a number of other former Leave voters like RCS and SeanT and Richard Tyndall but most of those back soft Brexit.
40-45% of the country backs hard Brexit, I would say barely 10% of PBers at best
There's no such thing as "soft Brexit". The EU don't want to negotiate on anything and won't budge until the UK stumps up a load of money for nothing whatsoever, which of course is completely unacceptable.
Best get the things sorted so we won't have our planes grounded etc. and just get on with it.
Guess I can add you to the hard Brexit tent in the PB camp then.
It's not that I want it, I just can't see how it is possible to avoid it. The EU won't negotiate ANYTHING at all. What exactly is the government supposed to do?
Either cough up £65 billion or walk I agree
But cough up £65bn for what? They just want us to pay it and then we might get something or might get nothing at all. That's not a negotiation it's a mugging.
The EU are acting like coming up with a reasonable deal isn't in the best interests of both parties. They really are a bunch of wankers.
How the fuck did our spineless politicians sign us up to being in this organisation in the first place against the wishes of the majority of voters.
Even if we do pay the £65 billion if Canada is anything to go by it will take 7 years to get a deal.
Chris Grayling again showing that when Brexiteers talk about "no deal", they don't actually MEAN "no deal". He just blithely asserted that planes will keep flying no matter what, even though that will require some kind of deal to achieve that.
You write as though the EU would treat the UK as some sort of pariah state on a par with Syria or North Korea, rather than say Canada.
I think the point Danny565 was making was that an agreement of some sort is necessary for the flights to take place, so the situation is not imposed by the EU as revenge for leaving, it's created by the fact of the UK leaving
But let's assume you're right. Just as with the trade in goods, the trade in tourism is currently massively imbalanced in the EU's favour. In the case of Spain, the collapse of tourist flights between the UK and EU would cause a huge economic collapse of a key industry and an associated weakening of property prices in resorts that could have wider ramifications. The same risks apply in varying degrees to the likes of Greece, Cyprus, Malta, Italy, France, Austria..... etc. By contrast, reverse risks to UK tourism would be more than offset by the numbers choosing to take staycations here.
I had a look at this earlier in the year. From memory the UK tourist industry to the EU27 is between 7-15% of any given state's input. If every UK tourist failed to leave the UK, it would result in a drop in that state's tourism of 15% max: hard, but not critical, and would be somewhat (tho' not wholly) compensated for by other country's tourists filling the gap. And it has to be gently pointed out that a weak pound makes British tourism less attractive
If you doubt this point, I must fall back on the riposte that I usually give to RichardNabavi of this parish when he makes similar points: if we are so vital to the EU, why are they stalling? If we are so insouciant about a deal, why are we urging speed?
Are there any hard Brexit backers on PB though, apart from maybe yourself and Sunil and Alanbrooke? Certainly there are a number of other former Leave voters like RCS and SeanT and Richard Tyndall but most of those back soft Brexit.
40-45% of the country backs hard Brexit, I would say barely 10% of PBers at best
Chris Grayling again showing that when Brexiteers talk about "no deal", they don't actually MEAN "no deal". He just blithely asserted that planes will keep flying no matter what, even though that will require some kind of deal to achieve that.
Don't planes currently fly between non-EU nations?
Yes, but, as far as I know, it requires "deals" of some kind.
Such as?
I saw an expert talking about this in summer 2016 she thought flights wouldn't be a problem because of the European Common Aviation Area. I can't remember her name, but it was on either Victoria Derbyshire or Daily Politics, I think, if someone can find it.
Over to the lawyers, but it doesn't appear to be the case that by leaving the EU we automatically leave this Agreement. Article 50 seems to take you out "Treaties" which seems to be defined as TEU and TFEU. On first glance neither seem to supercede this agreement?
The ECAA has a separate termination mechanism of its own (Article 31), so unless by triggering Article 50 we are implied to have triggered the termination mechanism here, presumably this agreement continues in force? The sting in the tail is that the ECJ is the arbiter on disputes.
In any case, even if we do leave this agreement in the future - Article 31 seems to give us a grace period to put in place new arrangements:
Article 31: Each Contracting Party may denounce this Agreement by notifying the depository. [...] If this Agreement is denounced by any other Contracting Party it shall cease to be in force only with respect to such Contracting Party one year after the date of notification. However, air services operated at the date of expiry of this Agreement may continue until the end of the International Air Transport Association (IATA) scheduling season into which that date of expiry falls.
Chris Grayling again showing that when Brexiteers talk about "no deal", they don't actually MEAN "no deal". He just blithely asserted that planes will keep flying no matter what, even though that will require some kind of deal to achieve that.
You write as though the EU would treat the UK as some sort of pariah state on a par with Syria or North Korea, rather than say Canada.
I think the point Danny565 was making was that an agreement of some sort is necessary for the flights to take place, so the situation is not imposed by the EU as revenge for leaving, it's created by the fact of the UK leaving
But let's assume you're right. Just as with the trade in goods, the trade in tourism is currently massively imbalanced in the EU's favour. In the case of Spain, the collapse of tourist flights between the UK and EU would cause a huge economic collapse of a key industry and an associated weakening of property prices in resorts that could have wider ramifications. The same risks apply in varying degrees to the likes of Greece, Cyprus, Malta, Italy, France, Austria..... etc. By contrast, reverse risks to UK tourism would be more than offset by the numbers choosing to take staycations here.
I had a look at this earlier in the year. From memory the UK tourist industry to the EU27 is between 7-15% of any given state's input. If every UK tourist failed to leave the UK, it would result in a drop in that state's tourism of 15% max: hard, but not critical, and would be somewhat (tho' not wholly) compensated for by other country's tourists filling the gap. And it has to be gently pointed out that a weak pound makes British tourism less attractive
If you doubt this point, I must fall back on the riposte that I usually give to RichardNabavi of this parish when he makes similar points: if we are so vital to the EU, why are they stalling? If we are so insouciant about a deal, why are we urging speed?
The point I'm making is that rather than get hung up on semantics we should all accept that there is no prospect whatsoever of the EU putting in place any meaningful curtailment of flights between the EU and UK. And that it's therefore scaremongering to suggest otherwise.
I don't accept your maths re tourists at all. Spain etc would suffer. The UK tourism industry won't.
And on your final point, if the UK is so superfluous to the EU, why were they so desperate for us not to leave in the first place?
Chris Grayling again showing that when Brexiteers talk about "no deal", they don't actually MEAN "no deal". He just blithely asserted that planes will keep flying no matter what, even though that will require some kind of deal to achieve that.
Don't planes currently fly between non-EU nations?
Yes, but, as far as I know, it requires "deals" of some kind.
Such as?
I saw an expert talking about this in summer 2016 she thought flights wouldn't be a problem because of the European Common Aviation Area. I can't remember her name, but it was on either Victoria Derbyshire or Daily Politics, I think, if someone can find it.
Over to the lawyers, but it doesn't appear to be the case that by leaving the EU we automatically leave this Agreement. Article 50 seems to take you out "Treaties" which seems to be defined as TEU and TFEU. On first glance neither seem to supercede this agreement?
The ECAA has a separate termination mechanism of its own (Article 31), so unless by triggering Article 50 we are implied to have triggered the termination mechanism here, presumably this agreement continues in force? The sting in the tail is that the ECJ is the arbiter on disputes.
In any case, even if we do leave this agreement in the future - Article 31 seems to give us a grace period to put in place new arrangements:
Article 31: Each Contracting Party may denounce this Agreement by notifying the depository. [...] If this Agreement is denounced by any other Contracting Party it shall cease to be in force only with respect to such Contracting Party one year after the date of notification. However, air services operated at the date of expiry of this Agreement may continue until the end of the International Air Transport Association (IATA) scheduling season into which that date of expiry falls.
Useful post, Anna: thank you.
Found the video - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hnV_uWpP3g4 . There's a scene-setting piece the BBC sets out and then she starts talking at 4:10. I don't know if she is right and some of the airlines seem to be worried about it, so maybe she was wrong.... She gets to the EU open skies agreement at 6.06.
Are there any hard Brexit backers on PB though, apart from maybe yourself and Alanbrooke? Certainly there are a number of Leave backers like RCS and SeanT and Richard Tyndall but most of those backed soft Brexit.
40-45% of the country backs hard Brexit, I would say barely 10% of PBers at best
Even I'm on the fence, to be honest....
We could certainly do with a few more posters who take that view to ensure it is properly represented, perhaps OGH should put an up an advert in Thanet or Clacton!
Do you have any evidence to back up the claim that 40-45% back hard Brexit?
It would be nice to get a poll on how many people support us walking away from negotiations until the EU start being reasonable.
Indeed, walk away and pay nothing would be incredibly popular and not just with leavers.
Not so popular when the consequences impact on the same people though
No indeed, but the current negotiations are just embarrassing to national morale. A walkout and a replay of "up yours delors" would boost the Tories by close to 10 points.
You might be right. I keep bringing up the concept of "failing and blaming": the concept that it is OK to fail provided that somebody else (EU in this case) can be blamed. In this case it's the hard variant: that it is actively preferable to "fail and blame" because it is electorally advantageous.
I hate to interrupt the Brexit fest, but if I wanted to place a bet in the thousands of pounds range, how would I go about it?
As previously discussed, I distrust online betting. So previously I've done my betting by going into a betting shop like a proper grownup and going up to the counter to fill out the slip. That was fine in the days of Brexit ref & 2015 GE, but these days all the election bets are on foreign elections and the girl/guy behind the counter gets confused by that foreign muck (it was a total arse placing a bet on Macron: she had to call in the manager). I don't want to be waving a bunch of fifties in front of somebody who gets flustered, betting is scary enough as is. Is there a shop or something that has a politics-savvy frontperson?
Telephone betting sounds like the service you need. Before internet, it used to be a very common way for people to place bets.
Here's just one example from a bookmaker of repute;
AIUI, all of the major bookies have telephone betting services, usually with a minimum stake of at least £10, usually £25, but sometimes £50 or £100. I know betfair also take bets on their exchange over the phone, or at least that was the case a couple of years ago when I last tried.
You generally (always?) have to set up an account over the phone and there will be kyc ("know your customer") verification either when you sign up, or before you withdraw any winnings.
Unfortunately, in my experience the maximum bet stake on many politics markets these days is quite low - often not much more than their minimum telephone bet, so in order to get a decent stake on, it's best to call in your bet during sane office-type hours and hope that the telephone betting person is able to call through for authorization from the actual traders who price up the market.
The point I'm making is that rather than get hung up on semantics we should all accept that there is no prospect whatsoever of the EU putting in place any meaningful curtailment of flights between the EU and UK. And that it's therefore scaremongering to suggest otherwise.
With the caveat that "no prospect whatsoever" is impossibly strong (I doubt the probability is zero), that's a fair point
And on your final point, if the UK is so superfluous to the EU, why were they so desperate for us not to leave in the first place?
If I recall correctly, the months-long efforts by Cameron to obtain a renegotiation produced results so anodyne that many voters who were waiting for the results turned to LEAVE in disappointment/disgust. That's not the behavior of a EU desperate for the UK to REMAIN, an observation borne out by the dog that didn't bark - the lack of a second offer from the EU post-referendum.
I hate to interrupt the Brexit fest, but if I wanted to place a bet in the thousands of pounds range, how would I go about it?
As previously discussed, I distrust online betting. So previously I've done my betting by going into a betting shop like a proper grownup and going up to the counter to fill out the slip. That was fine in the days of Brexit ref & 2015 GE, but these days all the election bets are on foreign elections and the girl/guy behind the counter gets confused by that foreign muck (it was a total arse placing a bet on Macron: she had to call in the manager). I don't want to be waving a bunch of fifties in front of somebody who gets flustered, betting is scary enough as is. Is there a shop or something that has a politics-savvy frontperson?
Telephone betting sounds like the service you need. Before internet, it used to be a very common way for people to place bets.
Here's just one example from a bookmaker of repute;
AIUI, all of the major bookies have telephone betting services, usually with a minimum stake of at least £10, usually £25, but sometimes £50 or £100. I know betfair also take bets on their exchange over the phone, or at least that was the case a couple of years ago when I last tried.
You generally (always?) have to set up an account over the phone and there will be kyc ("know your customer") verification either when you sign up, or before you withdraw any winnings.
Unfortunately, in my experience the maximum bet stake on many politics markets these days is quite low - often not much more than their minimum telephone bet, so in order to get a decent stake on, it's best to call in your bet during sane office-type hours and hope that the telephone betting person is able to call through for authorization from the actual traders who price up the market.
Hope this helps.
Thank you, that might be the way forward. The requirement for an account may be a sticking point but it's certainly something that should be considered. Very kind of you, thank you.
Found the video - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hnV_uWpP3g4 . There's a scene-setting piece the BBC sets out and then she starts talking at 4:10. I don't know if she is right and some of the airlines seem to be worried about it, so maybe she was wrong.... She gets to the EU open skies agreement at 6.06.
If I understand her (Jacquelene Foster MEP) correctly, there are EU open-skies deals (plural) but they are laid on top of existing bilateral arrangements which will still apply to the UK post-Brexit. So the worst-case scenario is that we revert to those pre-existing arrangements: some inconvenience but not tumbleweed-in-Heathrow bad.
It would be nice to get a poll on how many people support us walking away from negotiations until the EU start being reasonable.
Indeed, walk away and pay nothing would be incredibly popular and not just with leavers.
Not so popular when the consequences impact on the same people though
No indeed, but the current negotiations are just embarrassing to national morale. A walkout and a replay of "up yours delors" would boost the Tories by close to 10 points.
You might be right. I keep bringing up the concept of "failing and blaming": the concept that it is OK to fail provided that somebody else (EU in this case) can be blamed. In this case it's the hard variant: that it is actively preferable to "fail and blame" because it is electorally advantageous.
I'm not sure when this irresponsible fantasy started (I mostly blame the likes of the Mail and Sun who can throw this shit around with impunity), but it needs to stop.
The impasse is caused by the government having unreasonable expectations. The EU can't treat the UK as a special case - doing so would undermine the whole organisation. The "best" that can be hoped for is a Norway deal - that's if the government wants to have its cake and eat it. Getting the perks of EU membership for free is not on the table. The government has the option of going for hard Brexit - not what any main UK political party wants, not what the UK public wants, not what the EU wants - but the consequences would be grave for the UK and grave for the Tory party. We can already see that the crap negotiating is causing a slip in Tory support and a slip in Brexit support, and a total failure in the negotiations is more likely to see the Tories down to the mid-30% range rather than a "10-point boost".
Leaver orthodoxy on this is that we just don't police our side of the 26-6 border. It's called taking back control, apparently.
Leaver orthodoxy is that we treat it exactly the same way as the border between Norway and Sweden, or the borders between the EEA states (who are not in the customs union) and the rest of the EU.
It would be nice to get a poll on how many people support us walking away from negotiations until the EU start being reasonable.
Indeed, walk away and pay nothing would be incredibly popular and not just with leavers.
Not so popular when the consequences impact on the same people though
No indeed, but the current negotiations are just embarrassing to national morale. A walkout and a replay of "up yours delors" would boost the Tories by close to 10 points.
You might be right. I keep bringing up the concept of "failing and blaming": the concept that it is OK to fail provided that somebody else (EU in this case) can be blamed. In this case it's the hard variant: that it is actively preferable to "fail and blame" because it is electorally advantageous.
I'm not sure when this irresponsible fantasy started (I mostly blame the likes of the Mail and Sun who can throw this shit around with impunity), but it needs to stop.
The impasse is caused by the government having unreasonable expectations. The EU can't treat the UK as a special case - doing so would undermine the whole organisation. The "best" that can be hoped for is a Norway deal - that's if the government wants to have its cake and eat it. Getting the perks of EU membership for free is not on the table. The government has the option of going for hard Brexit - not what any main UK political party wants, not what the UK public wants, not what the EU wants - but the consequences would be grave for the UK and grave for the Tory party. We can already see that the crap negotiating is causing a slip in Tory support and a slip in Brexit support, and a total failure in the negotiations is more likely to see the Tories down to the mid-30% range rather than a "10-point boost".
The spin won't work. What we need is results.
You don’t think it works both ways? The EU is being totally unreasonable expecting ECJ juseidivtion over EU citizens in the UK.
The point I'm making is that rather than get hung up on semantics we should all accept that there is no prospect whatsoever of the EU putting in place any meaningful curtailment of flights between the EU and UK. And that it's therefore scaremongering to suggest otherwise.
With the caveat that "no prospect whatsoever" is impossibly strong (I doubt the probability is zero), that's a fair point
And on your final point, if the UK is so superfluous to the EU, why were they so desperate for us not to leave in the first place?
If I recall correctly, the months-long efforts by Cameron to obtain a renegotiation produced results so anodyne that many voters who were waiting for the results turned to LEAVE in disappointment/disgust. That's not the behavior of a EU desperate for the UK to REMAIN, an observation borne out by the dog that didn't bark - the lack of a second offer from the EU post-referendum.
Cameron failed for the same reason that Davies is failing now - it was all about image and lacking in honesty. The monolithic EU has very little wiggle room. And anyway what was the point the EU offering things to Cameron when he and May weren't using the powers they already had? No registering of foreign nationals, no checks on use of public funds, no restricting immigration from new member states, no enforcement of limiting stay for the unemployed, and so on. The "renegotiation" seemed to the EU like the PR exercise that it was. An exercise that was destined to backfire, obviously.
I'm not sure when this irresponsible fantasy started (I mostly blame the likes of the Mail and Sun who can throw this shit around with impunity), but it needs to stop.
The impasse is caused by the government having unreasonable expectations. The EU can't treat the UK as a special case - doing so would undermine the whole organisation. The "best" that can be hoped for is a Norway deal - that's if the government wants to have its cake and eat it. Getting the perks of EU membership for free is not on the table. The government has the option of going for hard Brexit - not what any main UK political party wants, not what the UK public wants, not what the EU wants - but the consequences would be grave for the UK and grave for the Tory party. We can already see that the crap negotiating is causing a slip in Tory support and a slip in Brexit support, and a total failure in the negotiations is more likely to see the Tories down to the mid-30% range rather than a "10-point boost".
The spin won't work. What we need is results.
You are not really addressing the issue. We are not arguing with the EU over a trade deal, we are arguing over a bill that has no legal basis. In this case, the EU has unreasonable expectations - they think the UK should pay money that is not required under the treaties in return for a chat about trade. The EU cannot sign a trade deal as part of A50 so basically we are paying for nothing. They will take the money and renege on the trade deal.
We don't want the 'perks' of membership. All most leavers want is a Canada style FTA where we don't have any other entanglement in EU law or policy. And that is not unrealistic at all.
Chris Grayling again showing that when Brexiteers talk about "no deal", they don't actually MEAN "no deal". He just blithely asserted that planes will keep flying no matter what, even though that will require some kind of deal to achieve that.
You write as though the EU would treat the UK as some sort of pariah state on a par with Syria or North Korea, rather than say Canada.
But let's assume you're right. Just as with the trade in goods, the trade in tourism is currently massively imbalanced in the EU's favour. In the case of Spain, the collapse of tourist flights between the UK and EU would cause a huge economic collapse of a key industry and an associated weakening of property prices in resorts that could have wider ramifications. The same risks apply in varying degrees to the likes of Greece, Cyprus, Malta, Italy, France, Austria..... etc. By contrast, reverse risks to UK tourism would be more than offset by the numbers choosing to take staycations here.
Spain would take a max hit equal to 2.5% of GDP with no UK visitors, less what they could recoup from the rest of the EU- which is is twice as big a market for them.
We don't want the 'perks' of membership. All most leavers want is a Canada style FTA where we don't have any other entanglement in EU law or policy. And that is not unrealistic at all.
It is unrealistic if you want to maintain the territorial integrity of the UK as it stands because it's not compatible with the Good Friday Agreement. If that's what you want, you need to persuade the DUP that the time has come for de facto reunification.
We don't want the 'perks' of membership. All most leavers want is a Canada style FTA where we don't have any other entanglement in EU law or policy. And that is not unrealistic at all.
It is unrealistic if you want to maintain the territorial integrity of the UK as it stands because it's not compatible with the Good Friday Agreement. If that's what you want, you need to persuade the DUP that the time has come for de facto reunification.
Which parts of the agreement require we stay in the EU?
We don't want the 'perks' of membership. All most leavers want is a Canada style FTA where we don't have any other entanglement in EU law or policy. And that is not unrealistic at all.
It is unrealistic if you want to maintain the territorial integrity of the UK as it stands because it's not compatible with the Good Friday Agreement. If that's what you want, you need to persuade the DUP that the time has come for de facto reunification.
Which parts of the agreement require we stay in the EU?
Creating a customs border where none exists currently goes fundamentally against the aim of facilitating north/south cooperation and there are provisions in the GFA to ensure representation within the EU.
We don't want the 'perks' of membership. All most leavers want is a Canada style FTA where we don't have any other entanglement in EU law or policy. And that is not unrealistic at all.
It is unrealistic if you want to maintain the territorial integrity of the UK as it stands because it's not compatible with the Good Friday Agreement. If that's what you want, you need to persuade the DUP that the time has come for de facto reunification.
Which parts of the agreement require we stay in the EU?
Creating a customs border where none exists currently goes fundamentally against the aim of facilitating north/south cooperation and there are provisions in the GFA to ensure representation within the EU.
The UK Parliament report on this states "While the evidence we received did not suggest that the legal framework of the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement would be substantially undermined by Brexit, we note the potential psychological impact of Brexit in undermining confidence in the Agreement and in subsequent agreements."
Are there any hard Brexit backers on PB though, apart from maybe yourself and Alanbrooke? Certainly there are a number of Leave backers like RCS and SeanT and Richard Tyndall but most of those backed soft Brexit.
40-45% of the country backs hard Brexit, I would say barely 10% of PBers at best
Even I'm on the fence, to be honest....
We could certainly do with a few more posters who take that view to ensure it is properly represented, perhaps OGH should put an up an advert in Thanet or Clacton!
Do you have any evidence to back up the claim that 40-45% back hard Brexit?
It would be nice to get a poll on how many people support us walking away from negotiations until the EU start being reasonable.
Indeed, walk away and pay nothing would be incredibly popular and not just with leavers.
Not so popular when the consequences impact on the same people though
No indeed, but the current negotiations are just embarrassing to national morale. A walkout and a replay of "up yours delors" would boost the Tories by close to 10 points.
Yep - this is all about what’s best for the Tories, not what’s best for the UK. The challenge for the Tories, though, is what happens after the flags are packed away. They still have to deliver the sunlit uplands and no downside Brexit voters were promised. That’ll be a tough ask once we’ve jumped off the cliff.
Are there any hard Brexit backers on PB though, apart from maybe yourself and Alanbrooke? Certainly there are a number of Leave backers like RCS and SeanT and Richard Tyndall but most of those backed soft Brexit.
40-45% of the country backs hard Brexit, I would say barely 10% of PBers at best
Even I'm on the fence, to be honest....
We could certainly do with a few more posters who take that view to ensure it is properly represented, perhaps OGH should put an up an advert in Thanet or Clacton!
Do you have any evidence to back up the claim that 40-45% back hard Brexit?
It would be nice to get a poll on how many people support us walking away from negotiations until the EU start being reasonable.
Indeed, walk away and pay nothing would be incredibly popular and not just with leavers.
Not so popular when the consequences impact on the same people though
No indeed, but the current negotiations are just embarrassing to national morale. A walkout and a replay of "up yours delors" would boost the Tories by close to 10 points.
Yep - this is all about what’s best for the Tories, not what’s best for the UK. The challenge for the Tories, though, is what happens after the flags are packed away. They still have to deliver the sunlit uplands and no downside Brexit voters were promised. That’ll be a tough ask once we’ve jumped off the cliff.
We don't want the 'perks' of membership. All most leavers want is a Canada style FTA where we don't have any other entanglement in EU law or policy. And that is not unrealistic at all.
It is unrealistic if you want to maintain the territorial integrity of the UK as it stands because it's not compatible with the Good Friday Agreement. If that's what you want, you need to persuade the DUP that the time has come for de facto reunification.
Which parts of the agreement require we stay in the EU?
Creating a customs border where none exists currently goes fundamentally against the aim of facilitating north/south cooperation and there are provisions in the GFA to ensure representation within the EU.
That's your slant. It's certainly not a term of the GFA that the UK has to remain in the EU.
Are there any hard Brexit backers on PB though, apart from maybe yourself and Alanbrooke? Certainly there are a number of Leave backers like RCS and SeanT and Richard Tyndall but most of those backed soft Brexit.
40-45% of the country backs hard Brexit, I would say barely 10% of PBers at best
Even I'm on the fence, to be honest....
We could certainly do with a few more posters who take that view to ensure it is properly represented, perhaps OGH should put an up an advert in Thanet or Clacton!
Do you have any evidence to back up the claim that 40-45% back hard Brexit?
It would be nice to get a poll on how many people support us walking away from negotiations until the EU start being reasonable.
Indeed, walk away and pay nothing would be incredibly popular and not just with leavers.
Not so popular when the consequences impact on the same people though
No indeed, but the current negotiations are just embarrassing to national morale. A walkout and a replay of "up yours delors" would boost the Tories by close to 10 points.
Yep - this is all about what’s best for the Tories, not what’s best for the UK. The challenge for the Tories, though, is what happens after the flags are packed away. They still have to deliver the sunlit uplands and no downside Brexit voters were promised. That’ll be a tough ask once we’ve jumped off the cliff.
you forgot to mention Thatcher
Not sure she’s relevant. I’m just looking forward to the no downsides of jumping off a cliff.
We don't want the 'perks' of membership. All most leavers want is a Canada style FTA where we don't have any other entanglement in EU law or policy. And that is not unrealistic at all.
It is unrealistic if you want to maintain the territorial integrity of the UK as it stands because it's not compatible with the Good Friday Agreement. If that's what you want, you need to persuade the DUP that the time has come for de facto reunification.
Which parts of the agreement require we stay in the EU?
Creating a customs border where none exists currently goes fundamentally against the aim of facilitating north/south cooperation and there are provisions in the GFA to ensure representation within the EU.
Why haven’t the ROI started building customs posts on the EU side of the border ?
What sort of fine / sanctions can they expect from the EU if they don’t set up sufficient controls in time for Brexit ?
We don't want the 'perks' of membership. All most leavers want is a Canada style FTA where we don't have any other entanglement in EU law or policy. And that is not unrealistic at all.
It is unrealistic if you want to maintain the territorial integrity of the UK as it stands because it's not compatible with the Good Friday Agreement. If that's what you want, you need to persuade the DUP that the time has come for de facto reunification.
Which parts of the agreement require we stay in the EU?
Creating a customs border where none exists currently goes fundamentally against the aim of facilitating north/south cooperation and there are provisions in the GFA to ensure representation within the EU.
Why haven’t the ROI started building customs posts on the EU side of the border ?
What sort of fine / sanctions can they expect from the EU if they don’t set up sufficient controls in time for Brexit ?
It doesn’t take long to build a customs post. The RoI has made clear it understands a hard border will deliver chaos. It’s the Tory loons who say there’ll be no problems.
We don't want the 'perks' of membership. All most leavers want is a Canada style FTA where we don't have any other entanglement in EU law or policy. And that is not unrealistic at all.
It is unrealistic if you want to maintain the territorial integrity of the UK as it stands because it's not compatible with the Good Friday Agreement. If that's what you want, you need to persuade the DUP that the time has come for de facto reunification.
Which parts of the agreement require we stay in the EU?
Creating a customs border where none exists currently goes fundamentally against the aim of facilitating north/south cooperation and there are provisions in the GFA to ensure representation within the EU.
Why haven’t the ROI started building customs posts on the EU side of the border ?
What sort of fine / sanctions can they expect from the EU if they don’t set up sufficient controls in time for Brexit ?
It doesn’t take long to build a customs post. The RoI has made clear it understands a hard border will deliver chaos. It’s the Tory loons who say there’ll be no problems.
There will be queues all the way back to Dublin.
Why does the EU want to build a new border at all ?
We don't want the 'perks' of membership. All most leavers want is a Canada style FTA where we don't have any other entanglement in EU law or policy. And that is not unrealistic at all.
It is unrealistic if you want to maintain the territorial integrity of the UK as it stands because it's not compatible with the Good Friday Agreement. If that's what you want, you need to persuade the DUP that the time has come for de facto reunification.
Which parts of the agreement require we stay in the EU?
Creating a customs border where none exists currently goes fundamentally against the aim of facilitating north/south cooperation and there are provisions in the GFA to ensure representation within the EU.
Why haven’t the ROI started building customs posts on the EU side of the border ?
What sort of fine / sanctions can they expect from the EU if they don’t set up sufficient controls in time for Brexit ?
It doesn’t take long to build a customs post. The RoI has made clear it understands a hard border will deliver chaos. It’s the Tory loons who say there’ll be no problems.
There will be queues all the way back to Dublin.
Why does the EU want to build a new border at all ?
Yep, the queues north and south will be long and immensely damaging.
WTO rules, the ones the loons want to revert to, compel a border.
We don't want the 'perks' of membership. All most leavers want is a Canada style FTA where we don't have any other entanglement in EU law or policy. And that is not unrealistic at all.
It is unrealistic if you want to maintain the territorial integrity of the UK as it stands because it's not compatible with the Good Friday Agreement. If that's what you want, you need to persuade the DUP that the time has come for de facto reunification.
Which parts of the agreement require we stay in the EU?
Creating a customs border where none exists currently goes fundamentally against the aim of facilitating north/south cooperation and there are provisions in the GFA to ensure representation within the EU.
Why haven’t the ROI started building customs posts on the EU side of the border ?
What sort of fine / sanctions can they expect from the EU if they don’t set up sufficient controls in time for Brexit ?
It doesn’t take long to build a customs post. The RoI has made clear it understands a hard border will deliver chaos. It’s the Tory loons who say there’ll be no problems.
I guess the RoI should have done a lot more to help Cameron when he needed allies
We don't want the 'perks' of membership. All most leavers want is a Canada style FTA where we don't have any other entanglement in EU law or policy. And that is not unrealistic at all.
It is unrealistic if you want to maintain the territorial integrity of the UK as it stands because it's not compatible with the Good Friday Agreement. If that's what you want, you need to persuade the DUP that the time has come for de facto reunification.
Which parts of the agreement require we stay in the EU?
Creating a customs border where none exists currently goes fundamentally against the aim of facilitating north/south cooperation and there are provisions in the GFA to ensure representation within the EU.
Why haven’t the ROI started building customs posts on the EU side of the border ?
What sort of fine / sanctions can they expect from the EU if they don’t set up sufficient controls in time for Brexit ?
It doesn’t take long to build a customs post. The RoI has made clear it understands a hard border will deliver chaos. It’s the Tory loons who say there’ll be no problems.
There will be queues all the way back to Dublin.
Why does the EU want to build a new border at all ?
Yep, the queues north and south will be long and immensely damaging.
WTO rules, the ones the loons want to revert to, compel a border.
Sounds expensive for the ROI - hope they will get funds from Brussels to pay for all this - how much have they asked for ?
Also will no one think of the poor Republican gangs who will face disruptionmoving their narcotics around ?
We don't want the 'perks' of membership. All most leavers want is a Canada style FTA where we don't have any other entanglement in EU law or policy. And that is not unrealistic at all.
It is unrealistic if you want to maintain the territorial integrity of the UK as it stands because it's not compatible with the Good Friday Agreement. If that's what you want, you need to persuade the DUP that the time has come for de facto reunification.
Which parts of the agreement require we stay in the EU?
Creating a customs border where none exists currently goes fundamentally against the aim of facilitating north/south cooperation and there are provisions in the GFA to ensure representation within the EU.
Why haven’t the ROI started building customs posts on the EU side of the border ?
What sort of fine / sanctions can they expect from the EU if they don’t set up sufficient controls in time for Brexit ?
It doesn’t take long to build a customs post. The RoI has made clear it understands a hard border will deliver chaos. It’s the Tory loons who say there’ll be no problems.
There will be queues all the way back to Dublin.
Why does the EU want to build a new border at all ?
Yep, the queues north and south will be long and immensely damaging.
WTO rules, the ones the loons want to revert to, compel a border.
Sounds expensive for the ROI - hope they will get funds from Brussels to pay for all this - how much have they asked for ?
Also will no one think of the poor Republican gangs who will face disruptionmoving their narcotics around ?
We don't want the 'perks' of membership. All most leavers want is a Canada style FTA where we don't have any other entanglement in EU law or policy. And that is not unrealistic at all.
It is unrealistic if you want to maintain the territorial integrity of the UK as it stands because it's not compatible with the Good Friday Agreement. If that's what you want, you need to persuade the DUP that the time has come for de facto reunification.
Which parts of the agreement require we stay in the EU?
Creating a customs border where none exists currently goes fundamentally against the aim of facilitating north/south cooperation and there are provisions in the GFA to ensure representation within the EU.
Why haven’t the ROI started building customs posts on the EU side of the border ?
What sort of fine / sanctions can they expect from the EU if they don’t set up sufficient controls in time for Brexit ?
It doesn’t take long to build a customs post. The RoI has made clear it understands a hard border will deliver chaos. It’s the Tory loons who say there’ll be no problems.
I guess the RoI should have done a lot more to help Cameron when he needed allies
short sighted of them
We are where we are. The UK will jump off a cliff and take Ireland with us. That may satisfy you and a few others, but it won’t deliver the sunlit uplands with no downsides we were promised. Still, as an EU citizen you’ll have your choice of countries to escape to!
We don't want the 'perks' of membership. All most leavers want is a Canada style FTA where we don't have any other entanglement in EU law or policy. And that is not unrealistic at all.
It is unrealistic if you want to maintain the territorial integrity of the UK as it stands because it's not compatible with the Good Friday Agreement. If that's what you want, you need to persuade the DUP that the time has come for de facto reunification.
Which parts of the agreement require we stay in the EU?
Creating a customs border where none exists currently goes fundamentally against the aim of facilitating north/south cooperation and there are provisions in the GFA to ensure representation within the EU.
Why haven’t the ROI started building customs posts on the EU side of the border ?
What sort of fine / sanctions can they expect from the EU if they don’t set up sufficient controls in time for Brexit ?
It doesn’t take long to build a customs post. The RoI has made clear it understands a hard border will deliver chaos. It’s the Tory loons who say there’ll be no problems.
There will be queues all the way back to Dublin.
Why does the EU want to build a new border at all ?
Yep, the queues north and south will be long and immensely damaging.
WTO rules, the ones the loons want to revert to, compel a border.
Sounds expensive for the ROI - hope they will get funds from Brussels to pay for all this - how much have they asked for ?
Also will no one think of the poor Republican gangs who will face disruptionmoving their narcotics around ?
that;s unfair
there are cigarettes and diesel too
I’d imagine this new Brussels Border will be so watertight that Bear Grylls will get a outdoor jacket made out of it.
We don't want the 'perks' of membership. All most leavers want is a Canada style FTA where we don't have any other entanglement in EU law or policy. And that is not unrealistic at all.
It is unrealistic if you want to maintain the territorial integrity of the UK as it stands because it's not compatible with the Good Friday Agreement. If that's what you want, you need to persuade the DUP that the time has come for de facto reunification.
Which parts of the agreement require we stay in the EU?
Creating a customs border where none exists currently goes fundamentally against the aim of facilitating north/south cooperation and there are provisions in the GFA to ensure representation within the EU.
Why haven’t the ROI started building customs posts on the EU side of the border ?
What sort of fine / sanctions can they expect from the EU if they don’t set up sufficient controls in time for Brexit ?
It doesn’t take long to build a customs post. The RoI has made clear it understands a hard border will deliver chaos. It’s the Tory loons who say there’ll be no problems.
There will be queues all the way back to Dublin.
Why does the EU want to build a new border at all ?
Yep, the queues north and south will be long and immensely damaging.
WTO rules, the ones the loons want to revert to, compel a border.
Sounds expensive for the ROI - hope they will get funds from Brussels to pay for all this - how much have they asked for ?
Also will no one think of the poor Republican gangs who will face disruptionmoving their narcotics around ?
Expensive for them, expensive for us. But the Irish will get by. As will we, no doubt. No more Tory governments, though.
We don't want the 'perks' of membership. All most leavers want is a Canada style FTA where we don't have any other entanglement in EU law or policy. And that is not unrealistic at all.
It is unrealistic if you want to maintain the territorial integrity of the UK as it stands because it's not compatible with the Good Friday Agreement. If that's what you want, you need to persuade the DUP that the time has come for de facto reunification.
Which parts of the agreement require we stay in the EU?
Creating a customs border where none exists currently goes fundamentally against the aim of facilitating north/south cooperation and there are provisions in the GFA to ensure representation within the EU.
Why haven’t the ROI started building customs posts on the EU side of the border ?
What sort of fine / sanctions can they expect from the EU if they don’t set up sufficient controls in time for Brexit ?
It doesn’t take long to build a customs post. The RoI has made clear it understands a hard border will deliver chaos. It’s the Tory loons who say there’ll be no problems.
I guess the RoI should have done a lot more to help Cameron when he needed allies
short sighted of them
We are where we are. The UK will jump off a cliff and take Ireland with us. That may satisfy you and a few others, but it won’t deliver the sunlit uplands with no downsides we were promised. Still, as an EU citizen you’ll have your choice of countries to escape to!
Irish PM doesnt agree with you
Mr Varadkar said he disagreed with remarks made by European Commissioner Phil Hogan that the cliff edge of a hard Brexit is so close "we can see the drop almost in front of us". The Taoiseach said: "I think we have a way to go yet."
"Brexit doesn't happen until April 2019, so we're quite far back from the cliff edge".
We don't want the 'perks' of membership. All most leavers want is a Canada style FTA where we don't have any other entanglement in EU law or policy. And that is not unrealistic at all.
It is unrealistic if you want to maintain the territorial integrity of the UK as it stands because it's not compatible with the Good Friday Agreement. If that's what you want, you need to persuade the DUP that the time has come for de facto reunification.
Which parts of the agreement require we stay in the EU?
Creating a customs border where none exists currently goes fundamentally against the aim of facilitating north/south cooperation and there are provisions in the GFA to ensure representation within the EU.
Why haven’t the ROI started building customs posts on the EU side of the border ?
What sort of fine / sanctions can they expect from the EU if they don’t set up sufficient controls in time for Brexit ?
It doesn’t take long to build a customs post. The RoI has made clear it understands a hard border will deliver chaos. It’s the Tory loons who say there’ll be no problems.
There will be queues all the way back to Dublin.
Why does the EU want to build a new border at all ?
Yep, the queues north and south will be long and immensely damaging.
WTO rules, the ones the loons want to revert to, compel a border.
Sounds expensive for the ROI - hope they will get funds from Brussels to pay for all this - how much have they asked for ?
Also will no one think of the poor Republican gangs who will face disruptionmoving their narcotics around ?
Expensive for them, expensive for us. But the Irish will get by. As will we, no doubt. No more Tory governments, though.
We don't want the 'perks' of membership. All most leavers want is a Canada style FTA where we don't have any other entanglement in EU law or policy. And that is not unrealistic at all.
It is unrealistic if you want to maintain the territorial integrity of the UK as it stands because it's not compatible with the Good Friday Agreement. If that's what you want, you need to persuade the DUP that the time has come for de facto reunification.
Which parts of the agreement require we stay in the EU?
Creating a customs border where none exists currently goes fundamentally against the aim of facilitating north/south cooperation and there are provisions in the GFA to ensure representation within the EU.
Why haven’t the ROI started building customs posts on the EU side of the border ?
What sort of fine / sanctions can they expect from the EU if they don’t set up sufficient controls in time for Brexit ?
It doesn’t take long to build a customs post. The RoI has made clear it understands a hard border will deliver chaos. It’s the Tory loons who say there’ll be no problems.
I guess the RoI should have done a lot more to help Cameron when he needed allies
short sighted of them
We are where we are. The UK will jump off a cliff and take Ireland with us. That may satisfy you and a few others, but it won’t deliver the sunlit uplands with no downsides we were promised. Still, as an EU citizen you’ll have your choice of countries to escape to!
Irish PM doesnt agree with you
Mr Varadkar said he disagreed with remarks made by European Commissioner Phil Hogan that the cliff edge of a hard Brexit is so close "we can see the drop almost in front of us". The Taoiseach said: "I think we have a way to go yet."
"Brexit doesn't happen until April 2019, so we're quite far back from the cliff edge".
I think he’s probably right. There are enough patriotic Tories to get a deal done that the Commons will approve. But it isn’t going to happen on anything other than the EU’s terms. It’ll be the deal they can live with, not the one voters were told they would get.
We don't want the 'perks' of membership. All most leavers want is a Canada style FTA where we don't have any other entanglement in EU law or policy. And that is not unrealistic at all.
It is unrealistic if you want to maintain the territorial integrity of the UK as it stands because it's not compatible with the Good Friday Agreement. If that's what you want, you need to persuade the DUP that the time has come for de facto reunification.
Which parts of the agreement require we stay in the EU?
Creating a customs border where none exists currently goes fundamentally against the aim of facilitating north/south cooperation and there are provisions in the GFA to ensure representation within the EU.
Why haven’t the ROI started building customs posts on the EU side of the border ?
What sort of fine / sanctions can they expect from the EU if they don’t set up sufficient controls in time for Brexit ?
It doesn’t take long to build a customs post. The RoI has made clear it understands a hard border will deliver chaos. It’s the Tory loons who say there’ll be no problems.
I guess the RoI should have done a lot more to help Cameron when he needed allies
short sighted of them
We are where we are. The UK will jump off a cliff and take Ireland with us. That may satisfy you and a few others, but it won’t deliver the sunlit uplands with no downsides we were promised. Still, as an EU citizen you’ll have your choice of countries to escape to!
Irish PM doesnt agree with you
Mr Varadkar said he disagreed with remarks made by European Commissioner Phil Hogan that the cliff edge of a hard Brexit is so close "we can see the drop almost in front of us". The Taoiseach said: "I think we have a way to go yet."
"Brexit doesn't happen until April 2019, so we're quite far back from the cliff edge".
I think he’s probably right. There are enough patriotic Tories to get a deal done that the Commons will approve. But it isn’t going to happen on anything other than the EU’s terms. It’ll be the deal they can live with, not the one voters were told they would get.
the voters werent told what deal they would get in the referendum
you said that ad nauseam during the campaign
they simply voted to come out and take their chances
We don't want the 'perks' of membership. All most leavers want is a Canada style FTA where we don't have any other entanglement in EU law or policy. And that is not unrealistic at all.
It is unrealistic if you want to maintain the territorial integrity of the UK as it stands because it's not compatible with the Good Friday Agreement. If that's what you want, you need to persuade the DUP that the time has come for de facto reunification.
Which parts of the agreement require we stay in the EU?
Creating a customs border where none exists currently goes fundamentally against the aim of facilitating north/south cooperation and there are provisions in the GFA to ensure representation within the EU.
Why haven’t the ROI started building customs posts on the EU side of the border ?
What sort of fine / sanctions can they expect from the EU if they don’t set up sufficient controls in time for Brexit ?
It doesn’t take long to build a customs post. The RoI has made clear it understands a hard border will deliver chaos. It’s the Tory loons who say there’ll be no problems.
I guess the RoI should have done a lot more to help Cameron when he needed allies
short sighted of them
We are where we are. The to escape to!
Irish PM doesnt agree with you
Mr Varadkar said hego yet."
"Brexit doesn't happen until April 2019, so we're quite far back from the cliff edge".
I think he’s probably right. There are enough patriotic Tories to get a deal done that the Commons will approve. But it isn’t going to happen on anything other than the EU’s terms. It’ll be the deal they can live with, not the one voters were told they would get.
the voters werent told what deal they would get in the referendum
you said that ad nauseam during the campaign
they simply voted to come out and take their chances
They were promised sunlit uplands and no downsides - low immigration, higher wages, lower taxes, more public spending, no changes to the rights they have to travel, live and work in the EU. Time to deliver.
We don't want the 'perks' of membership. All most leavers want is a Canada style FTA where we don't have any other entanglement in EU law or policy. And that is not unrealistic at all.
It is unrealistic if you want to maintain the territorial integrity of the UK as it stands because it's not compatible with the Good Friday Agreement. If that's what you want, you need to persuade the DUP that the time has come for de facto reunification.
Which parts of the agreement require we stay in the EU?
Creating a customs border where none exists currently goes fundamentally against the aim of facilitating north/south cooperation and there are provisions in the GFA to ensure representation within the EU.
Why haven’t the ROI started building customs posts on the EU side of the border ?
What sort of fine / sanctions can they expect from the EU if they don’t set up sufficient controls in time for Brexit ?
It doesn’t take long to build a customs post. The RoI has made clear it understands a hard border will deliver chaos. It’s the Tory loons who say there’ll be no problems.
I guess the RoI should have done a lot more to help Cameron when he needed allies
short sighted of them
We are where we are. The to escape to!
Irish PM doesnt agree with you
Mr Varadkar said hego yet."
"Brexit doesn't happen until April 2019, so we're quite far back from the cliff edge".
I think he’s probably right. There are enough patriotic Tories to get a deal done that the Commons will approve. But it isn’t going to happen on anything other than the EU’s terms. It’ll be the deal they can live with, not the one voters were told they would get.
the voters werent told what deal they would get in the referendum
you said that ad nauseam during the campaign
they simply voted to come out and take their chances
They were promised sunlit uplands and no downsides - low immigration, higher wages, lower taxes, more public spending, no changes to the rights they have to travel, live and work in the EU. Time to deliver.
We don't want the 'perks' of membership. All most leavers want is a Canada style FTA where we don't have any other entanglement in EU law or policy. And that is not unrealistic at all.
It is unrealistic if you want to maintain the territorial integrity of the UK as it stands because it's not compatible with the Good Friday Agreement. If that's what you want, you need to persuade the DUP that the time has come for de facto reunification.
Which parts of the agreement require we stay in the EU?
Creating a customs border where none exists currently goes fundamentally against the aim of facilitating north/south cooperation and there are provisions in the GFA to ensure representation within the EU.
Why haven’t the ROI started building customs posts on the EU side of the border ?
What sort of fine / sanctions can they expect from the EU if they don’t set up sufficient controls in time for Brexit ?
It doesn’t take long to build a customs post. The RoI has made clear it understands a hard border will deliver chaos. It’s the Tory loons who say there’ll be no problems.
There will be queues all the way back to Dublin.
Why does the EU want to build a new border at all ?
Yep, the queues north and south will be long and immensely damaging.
WTO rules, the ones the loons want to revert to, compel a border.
Sounds expensive for the ROI - hope they will get funds from Brussels to pay for all this - how much have they asked for ?
Also will no one think of the poor Republican gangs who will face disruptionmoving their narcotics around ?
Expensive for them, expensive for us. But the Irish will get by. As will we, no doubt. No more Tory governments, though.
now youre just trolling
The only way to get to a deal is to do one on the EU’s terms. That will split the Tories. If we don’t do a deal the resulting economic damage will see them lose power for a generation, with a left-wing Labour government able to blame the Tory Brexit for all its own mistakes.
We don't want the 'perks' of membership. All most leavers want is a Canada style FTA where we don't have any other entanglement in EU law or policy. And that is not unrealistic at all.
It is unrealistic if you want to maintain the territorial integrity of the UK as it stands because it's not compatible with the Good Friday Agreement. If that's what you want, you need to persuade the DUP that the time has come for de facto reunification.
Which parts of the agreement require we stay in the EU?
Creating a customs border where none exists currently goes fundamentally against the aim of facilitating north/south cooperation and there are provisions in the GFA to ensure representation within the EU.
Why haven’t the ROI started building customs posts on the EU side of the border ?
What sort of fine / sanctions can they expect from the EU if they don’t set up sufficient controls in time for Brexit ?
It doesn’t take long to build a customs post. The RoI has made clear it understands a hard border will deliver chaos. It’s the Tory loons who say there’ll be no problems.
There will be queues all the way back to Dublin.
Why does the EU want to build a new border at all ?
Yep, the queues north and south will be long and immensely damaging.
WTO rules, the ones the loons want to revert to, compel a border.
Sounds expensive for the ROI - hope they will get funds from Brussels to pay for all this - how much have they asked for ?
Also will no one think of the poor Republican gangs who will face disruptionmoving their narcotics around ?
Expensive for them, expensive for us. But the Irish will get by. As will we, no doubt. No more Tory governments, though.
now youre just trolling
The only way to get to a deal is to do one on the EU’s terms. That will split the Tories. If we don’t do a deal the resulting economic damage will see them lose power for a generation, with a left-wing Labour government able to blame the Tory Brexit for all its own mistakes.
in case you missed it the tories were already split
We don't want the 'perks' of membership. All most leavers want is a Canada style FTA where we don't have any other entanglement in EU law or policy. And that is not unrealistic at all.
It is unrealistic if you want to maintain the territorial integrity of the UK as it stands because it's not compatible with the Good Friday Agreement. If that's what you want, you need to persuade the DUP that the time has come for de facto reunification.
Which parts of the agreement require we stay in the EU?
Creating a customs border where none exists currently goes fundamentally against the aim of facilitating north/south cooperation and there are provisions in the GFA to ensure representation within the EU.
Why haven’t the ROI started building customs posts on the EU side of the border ?
What sort of fine / sanctions can they expect from the EU if they don’t set up sufficient controls in time for Brexit ?
It doesn’t take long to build a customs post. The RoI has made clear it understands a hard border will deliver chaos. It’s the Tory loons who say there’ll be no problems.
I guess the RoI should have done a lot more to help Cameron when he needed allies
short sighted of them
We are where we are. The to escape to!
Irish PM doesnt agree with you
Mr Varadkar said hego yet."
"Brexit doesn't happen until April 2019, so we're quite far back from the cliff edge".
I think he’s probably right. There are enough patriotic Tories to get a deal done that the Commons will approve. But it isn’t going to happen on anything other than the EU’s terms. It’ll be the deal they can live with, not the one voters were told they would get.
the voters werent told what deal they would get in the referendum
you said that ad nauseam during the campaign
they simply voted to come out and take their chances
They were promised sunlit uplands and no downsides - low immigration, higher wages, lower taxes, more public spending, no changes to the rights they have to travel, live and work in the EU. Time to deliver.
I'm pretty sure that most people who voted Leave expected an end to free migration.
We don't want the 'perks' of membership. All most leavers want is a Canada style FTA where we don't have any other entanglement in EU law or policy. And that is not unrealistic at all.
It is unrealistic if you want to maintain the territorial integrityo reunification.
Which parts of the agreement require we stay in the EU?
Creating a customs border where none exists currently goes fundamentally against the aim of facilitating north/south cooperation and there are provisions in the GFA to ensure representation within the EU.
Why haven’t the ROI started building customs posts on the EU side of the border ?
What sort of fine / sanctions can they expect from the EU if they don’t set up sufficient controls in time for Brexit ?
It doesn’t take long to build a customs post. The RoI has made clear it understands a hard border will deliver chaos. It’s the Tory loons who say there’ll be no problems.
I guess the RoI should have done a lot more to help Cameron when he needed allies
short sighted of them
We are where we are. The to escape to!
Irish PM doesnt agree with you
Mr Varadkar said hego yet."
"Brexit doesn't happen until April 2019, so we're quite far back from the cliff edge".
I think he’s probably right. There are enough patriotic Tories to get a deal done that the Commons will approve. But it isn’t going to happen on anything other than the EU’s terms. It’ll be the deal they can live with, not the one voters were told they would get.
the voters werent told what deal they would get in the referendum
you said that ad nauseam during the campaign
they simply voted to come out and take their chances
They were promised sunlit uplands and no downsides - low immigration, higher wages, lower taxes, more public spending, no changes to the rights they have to travel, live and work in the EU. Time to deliver.
only in your head
you forgot the bus and £350 million by the way
No need to mention it. But, of course, that was one of the promises made - £350 million a werk extra to spend.
We don't want the 'perks' of membership. All most leavers want is a Canada style FTA where we don't have any other entanglement in EU law or policy. And that is not unrealistic at all.
It is unrealistic if you want to maintain the territorial integrity of the UK as it stands because it's not compatible with the Good Friday Agreement. If that's what you want, you need to persuade the DUP that the time has come for de facto reunification.
Which parts of the agreement require we stay in the EU?
Creating a customs border where none exists currently goes fundamentally against the aim of facilitating north/south cooperation and there are provisions in the GFA to ensure representation within the EU.
Why haven’t the ROI started building customs posts on the EU side of the border ?
What sort of fine / sanctions can they expect from the EU if they don’t set up sufficient controls in time for Brexit ?
It doesn’t take long to build a customs post. The RoI has made clear it understands a hard border will deliver chaos. It’s the Tory loons who say there’ll be no problems.
I guess the RoI should have done a lot more to help Cameron when he needed allies
short sighted of them
We are where we are. The to escape to!
Irish PM doesnt agree with you
Mr Varadkar said hego yet."
"Brexit doesn't happen until April 2019, so we're quite far back from the cliff edge".
the voters werent told what deal they would get in the referendum
you said that ad nauseam during the campaign
they simply voted to come out and take their chances
They were promised sunlit uplands and no downsides - low immigration, higher wages, lower taxes, more public spending, no changes to the rights they have to travel, live and work in the EU. Time to deliver.
I'm pretty sure that most people who voted Leave expected an end to free migration.
We don't want the 'perks' of membership. All most leavers want is a Canada style FTA where we don't have any other entanglement in EU law or policy. And that is not unrealistic at all.
It is unrealistic if you want to maintain the territorial integrity of the UK as it stands because it's not compatible with the Good Friday Agreement. If that's what you want, you need to persuade the DUP that the time has come for de facto reunification.
Which parts of the agreement require we stay in the EU?
Creating a customs border where none exists currently goes fundamentally against the aim of facilitating north/south cooperation and there are provisions in the GFA to ensure representation within the EU.
Why haven’t the ROI started building customs posts on the EU side of the border ?
What sort of fine / sanctions can they expect from the EU if they don’t set up sufficient controls in time for Brexit ?
It doesn’t take long to build a customs post. The RoI has made clear it understands a hard border will deliver chaos. It’s the Tory loons who say there’ll be no problems.
There will be queues all the way back to Dublin.
Why does the EU want to build a new border at all ?
Yep, the queues north and south will be long and immensely damaging.
WTO rules, the ones the loons want to revert to, compel a border.
Sounds expensive for the ROI - hope they will get funds from Brussels to pay for all this - how much have they asked for ?
Also will no one think of the poor Republican gangs who will face disruptionmoving their narcotics around ?
Expensive for them, expensive for us. But the Irish will get by. As will we, no doubt. No more Tory governments, though.
I'd caution very carefully at drawing firm conclusions on the politics of the next few decades by extrapolating from today's events.
How quickly and suddenly has everything changed over the last few years?
We don't want the 'perks' of membership. All most leavers want is a Canada style FTA where we don't have any other entanglement in EU law or policy. And that is not unrealistic at all.
It is.
Which parts of the agreement require we stay in the EU?
Creating
Why
It doesn’t take long to build a customs post. The RoI has made clear it understands a hard border will deliver chaos. It’s the Tory loons who say there’ll be no problems.
I guess the RoI should have done a lot more to help Cameron when he needed allies
short sighted of them
We are where we are. The to escape to!
Irish PM doesnt agree with you
Mr Varadkar said hego yet."
"Brexit doesn't happen until April 2019, so we're quite far back from the cliff edge".
I think he’s probably right. There are enough patriotic Tories to get a deal done that the Commons will approve. But it isn’t going to happen on anything other than the EU’s terms. It’ll be the deal they can live with, not the one voters were told they would get.
the voters werent told what deal they would get in the referendum
you said that ad nauseam during the campaign
they simply voted to come out and take their chances
They were promised sunlit uplands and no downsides - low immigration, higher wages, lower taxes, more public spending, no changes to the rights they have to travel, live and work in the EU. Time to deliver.
I'm pretty sure that most people who voted Leave expected an end to free migration.
What struck me is how Sir Ivan Rogers struggled to get the EU to see immigration as that during the pre-Ref negotiation.
They kept saying, "but that's free movement, not immigration."
We don't want the 'perks' of membership. All most leavers want is a Canada style FTA where we don't have any other entanglement in EU law or policy. And that is not unrealistic at all.
It is unrealistic if you want to maintain the territorial integrity of the UK as it stands because it's not compatible with the Good Friday Agreement. If that's what you want, you need to persuade the DUP that the time has come for de facto reunification.
Which parts of the agreement require we stay in the EU?
Creating a customs border where none exists currently goes fundamentally against the aim of facilitating north/south cooperation and there are provisions in the GFA to ensure representation within the EU.
Why haven’t the ROI started building customs posts on the EU side of the border ?
What sort of fine / sanctions can they expect from the EU if they don’t set up sufficient controls in time for Brexit ?
It doesn’t take long to build a customs post. The RoI has made clear it understands a hard border will deliver chaos. It’s the Tory loons who say there’ll be no problems.
There will be queues all the way back to Dublin.
Why does the EU want to build a new border at all ?
Yep, the queues north and south will be long and immensely damaging.
WTO rules, the ones the loons want to revert to, compel a border.
Sounds expensive for the ROI - hope they will get funds from Brussels to pay for all this - how much have they asked for ?
Also will no one think of the poor Republican gangs who will face disruptionmoving their narcotics around ?
Expensive for them, expensive for us. But the Irish will get by. As will we, no doubt. No more Tory governments, though.
I'd caution very carefully at drawing firm conclusions on the politics of the next few decades by extrapolating from today's events.
How quickly and suddenly has everything changed over the last few years?
A fair point. Events happen. But as things stand I don’t see how the Tories can fail to be seen as the owners of Brexit. Perhaps their best chance is to lose an election before its effects kick in.
We don't want the 'perks' of membership. All most leavers want is a Canada style FTA where we don't have any other entanglement in EU law or policy. And that is not unrealistic at all.
It is unrealistic if you want to maintain the territorial integrity of the UK as it stands because it's not compatible with the Good Friday Agreement. If that's what you want, you need to persuade the DUP that the time has come for de facto reunification.
Which parts of the agreement require we stay in the EU?
Creating a customs border where none exists currently goes fundamentally against the aim of facilitating north/south cooperation and there are provisions in the GFA to ensure representation within the EU.
Why haven’t the ROI started building customs posts on the EU side of the border ?
What trols in time for Brexit ?
It doesn’t take long to build a customs post. The RoI has made clear it understands a hard border will deliver chaos. It’s the Tory loons who say there’ll be no problems.
I guess the RoI should have done a lot more to help Cameron when he needed allies
short sighted of them
We are where we are. The to escape to!
Irish PM doesnt agree with you
Mr Varadkar said hego yet."
"Brexit doesn't happen until April 2019, so we're quite far back from the cliff edge".
the voters werent told what deal they would get in the referendum
you said that ad nauseam during the campaign
they simply voted to come out and take their chances
They were promised sunlit uplands and no downsides - low immigration, higher wages, lower taxes, more public spending, no changes to the rights they have to travel, live and work in the EU. Time to deliver.
I'm pretty sure that most people who voted Leave expected an end to free migration.
Yep, consequence free.
No, I think most people who voted Leave would have been well aware that they were voting for immigration controls.
Creating a customs border where none exists currently goes fundamentally against the aim of facilitating north/south cooperation and there are provisions in the GFA to ensure representation within the EU.
Why haven’t the ROI started building customs posts on the EU side of the border ?
What sort of fine / sanctions can they expect from the EU if they don’t set up sufficient controls in time for Brexit ?
It doesn’t take long to build a customs post. The RoI has made clear it understands a hard border will deliver chaos. It’s the Tory loons who say there’ll be no problems.
I guess the RoI should have done a lot more to help Cameron when he needed allies
short sighted of them
We are where we are. The to escape to!
Irish PM doesnt agree with you
Mr Varadkar said hego yet."
"Brexit doesn't happen until April 2019, so we're quite far back from the cliff edge".
I think he’s probably right. There are enough patriotic Tories to get a deal done that the Commons will approve. But it isn’t going to happen on anything other than the EU’s terms. It’ll be the deal they can live with, not the one voters were told they would get.
the voters werent told what deal they would get in the referendum
you said that ad nauseam during the campaign
they simply voted to come out and take their chances
They were promised sunlit uplands and no downsides - low immigration, higher wages, lower taxes, more public spending, no changes to the rights they have to travel, live and work in the EU. Time to deliver.
They were alternatively promised all the daemons escaping from Hell as per the brilliant Private Eye cover.
The only obvious miscalculation that was made was that I certainly didn't expect a vocal minority who opposed what had been agreed getting so much airtime.
Our European colleagues are being remarkably unconstructive over the negotiations - I think that possibiltity was half-expected. I do think the endless negativity from within the UK has given then a false sense of hope.
Personally I know that we have to go through the negotiations but they are very draining and if nothing is to be gained then the sooner we cut to the endgame the better. The beef mountain in Ireland, the wine lake in Italy and the car mountain in France will soon bring Johnny Foreigner to his senses.
We don't want the 'perks' of membership. All most leavers want is a Canada style FTA where we don't have any other entanglement in EU law or policy. And that is not unrealistic at all.
It is.
Which parts of the agreement require we stay in the EU?
Creating
Why
It doesn’t take long to build a customs post. The RoI has made clear it understands a hard border will deliver chaos. It’s the Tory loons who say there’ll be no problems.
I guess the RoI should have done a lot more to help Cameron when he needed allies
short sighted of them
We are where we are. The to escape to!
Irish PM doesnt agree with you
Mr Varadkar said hego yet."
"Brexit doesn't happen until April 2019, so we're quite far back from the cliff edge".
I think he’s probably right. There are enough patriotic Tories to get a deal done that the Commons will approve. But it isn’t going to happen on anything other than the EU’s terms. It’ll be the deal they can live with, not the one voters were told they would get.
the voters werent told what deal they would get in the referendum
you said that ad nauseam during the campaign
they simply voted to come out and take their chances
They were promised sunlit uplands and no downsides - low immigration, higher wages, lower taxes, more public spending, no changes to the rights they have to travel, live and work in the EU. Time to deliver.
I'm pretty sure that most people who voted Leave expected an end to free migration.
What struck me is how Sir Ivan Rogers struggled to get the EU to see immigration as that during the pre-Ref negotiation.
They kept saying, "but that's free movement, not immigration."
It’s been sold in the UK as ‘immigration’ though. Either that or people retiring to the Costa whatever. The idea of Brits working elsewhere in Europe hardly gets a mention.
We don't want the 'perks' of membership. All most leavers want is a Canada style FTA where we don't have any other entanglement in EU law or policy. And that is not unrealistic at all.
It is unrealistic if you want to maintain the territorial integrity of the UK as it stands because it's not compatible with the Good Friday Agreement. If that's what you want, you need to persuade the DUP that the time has come for de facto reunification.
Which parts of the agreement require we stay in the EU?
Creating a customs border where none exists currently goes fundamentally against the aim of facilitating north/south cooperation and there are provisions in the GFA to ensure representation within the EU.
Why haven’t the ROI started building customs posts on the EU side of the border ?
What trols in time for Brexit ?
It doesn’t take long to build a customs post. The RoI has made clear it understands a hard border will deliver chaos. It’s the Tory loons who say there’ll be no problems.
I guess the RoI should have done a lot more to help Cameron when he needed allies
short sighted of them
We are where we are. The to escape to!
Irish PM doesnt agree with you
Mr Varadkar said hego yet."
"Brexit doesn't happen until April 2019, so we're quite far back from the cliff edge".
Creating a customs border where none exists currently goes fundamentally against the aim of facilitating north/south cooperation and there are provisions in the GFA to ensure representation within the EU.
Why haven’t the ROI started building customs posts on the EU side of the border ?
What sort of fine / sanctions can they expect from the EU if they don’t set up sufficient controls in time for Brexit ?
It doesn’t take long to build a customs post. The RoI has made clear it understands a hard border will deliver chaos. It’s the Tory loons who say there’ll be no problems.
I guess the RoIen he needed allies
short sighted of them
We are where we are. The to escape to!
Irish PM doesnt agree with you
Mr Varadkar said hego yet."
"Brexit doesn't happen until April 2019, so we're quite far back from the cliff edge".
I think he’s probably rightan live with, not the one voters were told they would get.
the voters werent told what deal they would get in the referendum
you said that ad nauseam during the campaign
they simply voted to come out and take their chances
They were promised sunlit uplandse EU. Time to deliver.
They were alternatively promised all the daemons escaping from Hell as per the brilliant Private Eye cover.
The only obvious miscalculation that was made was that I certainly didn't expect a vocal minority who opposed what had been agreed getting so much airtime.
Our European colleagues are being remarkably unconstructive over the negotiations - I think that possibiltity was half-expected. I do think the endless negativity from within the UK has given then a false sense of hope.
Personally I know that we have to go through the negotiations but they are very draining and if nothing is to be gained then the sooner we cut to the endgame the better. The beef mountain in Ireland, the wine lake in Italy and the car mountain in France will soon bring Johnny Foreigner to his senses.
So were those who told us doing a deal would be the easiest thing in the world and that German car manufacturers would be demanding one lying or just stupid?
On topic, because Brexit is discussed quite enough: evens on Donald Trump completing a full term looks like a very good bet to me. Of course it's risky and of course it depends on his unpredictable actions and personality. But for all the sound and fury, there's nothing very concrete yet to suggest that he won't.
Could the bet fail or look terrible in weeks? Of course it could. People are overestimating an obvious risk to an evens bet because it's obvious.
We don't want the 'perks' of membership. All most leavers want is a Canada style FTA where we don't have any other entanglement in EU law or policy. And that is not unrealistic at all.
It is.
Which parts of the agreement require we stay in the EU?
Creating
Why
It doesn’t take long to build a customs post. The RoI has made clear it understands a hard border will deliver chaos. It’s the Tory loons who say there’ll be no problems.
I guess the RoI should have done a lot more to help Cameron when he needed allies
short sighted of them
We are where we are. The to escape to!
Irish PM doesnt agree with you
Mr Varadkar said hego yet."
"Brexit doesn't happen until April 2019, so we're quite far back from the cliff edge".
the voters werent told what deal they would get in the referendum
you said that ad nauseam during the campaign
they simply voted to come out and take their chances
They were promised sunlit uplands and notravel, live and work in the EU. Time to deliver.
I'm pretty sure that most people who voted Leave expected an end to free migration.
What struck me is how Sir Ivan Rogers struggled to get the EU to see immigration as that during the pre-Ref negotiation.
They kept saying, "but that's free movement, not immigration."
It’s been sold in the UK as ‘immigration’ though. Either that or people retiring to the Costa whatever. The idea of Brits working elsewhere in Europe hardly gets a mention.
Brits aren’t immigrants, they’re ex-pats!!
Free movement is more accurate than immigration: people do emigrate using free movement provisions, but they also live and work temporarily in locations before returning home. The UK pensioners that winter in Spain don’t emigrate there; neither do the young Europeans who do a year or two here emigrate to the UK.
On topic, because Brexit is discussed quite enough: evens on Donald Trump completing a full term looks like a very good bet to me. Of course it's risky and of course it depends on his unpredictable actions and personality. But for all the sound and fury, there's nothing very concrete yet to suggest that he won't.
Could the bet fail or look terrible in weeks? Of course it could. People are overestimating an obvious risk to an evens bet because it's obvious.
Laying 2018 exit is value I think. Short of him quitting I can't see how he goes.
2019 I expect there will be evidence and political will for Dems to start impeachment.
On topic, because Brexit is discussed quite enough: evens on Donald Trump completing a full term looks like a very good bet to me. Of course it's risky and of course it depends on his unpredictable actions and personality. But for all the sound and fury, there's nothing very concrete yet to suggest that he won't.
Could the bet fail or look terrible in weeks? Of course it could. People are overestimating an obvious risk to an evens bet because it's obvious.
Laying 2018 exit is value I think. Short of him quitting I can't see how he goes.
2019 I expect there will be evidence and political will for Dems to start impeachment.
Laying 2018 looks safe. Backing him completing a full term is undeniably risky but, I suggest, nothing like as risky as to justify odds as long as evens.
Chris Grayling again showing that when Brexiteers talk about "no deal", they don't actually MEAN "no deal". He just blithely asserted that planes will keep flying no matter what, even though that will require some kind of deal to achieve that.
Don't planes currently fly between non-EU nations?
Yes, but, as far as I know, it requires "deals" of some kind.
What struck me is how Sir Ivan Rogers struggled to get the EU to see immigration as that during the pre-Ref negotiation.
They kept saying, "but that's free movement, not immigration."
It’s been sold in the UK as ‘immigration’ though. Either that or people retiring to the Costa whatever. The idea of Brits working elsewhere in Europe hardly gets a mention.
Perhaps because so few do so.
It might be interesting to compare the ratio of people who retire abroad to people who work abroad for each country.
And how many British people who do work abroad do so in the USA, Canada, Australia or even places like Dubai and Singapore rather than in other European countries ?
The ratio of people living in outside the EU to living in other EU countries would also be interesting.
We don't want the 'perks' of membership. All most leavers want is a Canada style FTA where we don't have any other entanglement in EU law or policy. And that is not unrealistic at all.
.
the voters werent told what deal they would get in the referendum
you said that ad nauseam during the campaign
they simply voted to come out and take their chances
They were promised sunlit uplands and no downsides - low immigration, higher wages, lower taxes, more public spending, no changes to the rights they have to travel, live and work in the EU. Time to deliver.
I'm pretty sure that most people who voted Leave expected an end to free migration.
Yep, consequence free.
No, I think most people who voted Leave would have been well aware that they were voting for immigration controls.
Have you read the recent Ipsos/Mori report in the FT on the six tribes of Brexit. Google "six tribes of Brexit".
Three of the tribes are Leavers. The Leaver tribe most present on this blog is the "British Values Leavers". These are mostly elderly, Tory/UKIP, very anti-immigration, hanker after the old British culture, ideological and immune to argument. They are only 10% of the population but they have loud voices.
The corresponding Remainer tribe is "Older Liberal Remainer". These are also mostly older types, university educated, comfortable lifestyle, insulated from the problems of the angry disadvantaged, ideological and also immune to argument. They are 15% of the population and also make a lot of noise. I'm in this tribe.
The "Working Class or Red Leavers", 15% of the population, are not so much anti-immigration as anti-establishment. They are mostly young, disadvantaged in the working class towns and cities of Labour heartlands. They support Corbyn as anti-establishment. The establishment is now Brexit so this 15% could switch to Remain.
We don't want the 'perks' of membership. All most leavers want is a Canada style FTA where we don't have any other entanglement in EU law or policy. And that is not unrealistic at all.
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the voters werent told what deal they would get in the referendum
you said that ad nauseam during the campaign
they simply voted to come out and take their chances
They were promised sunlit uplands and no downsides - low immigration, higher wages, lower taxes, more public spending, no changes to the rights they have to travel, live and work in the EU. Time to deliver.
I'm pretty sure that most people who voted Leave expected an end to free migration.
Yep, consequence free.
No, I think most people who voted Leave would have been well aware that they were voting for immigration controls.
Have you read the recent Ipsos/Mori report in the FT on the six tribes of Brexit. Google "six tribes of Brexit".
Three of the tribes are Leavers. The Leaver tribe most present on this blog is the "British Values Leavers". These are mostly elderly, Tory/UKIP, very anti-immigration, hanker after the old British culture, ideological and immune to argument. They are only 10% of the population but they have loud voices.
The corresponding Remainer tribe is "Older Liberal Remainer". These are also mostly older types, university educated, comfortable lifestyle, insulated from the problems of the angry disadvantaged, ideological and also immune to argument. They are 15% of the population and also make a lot of noise. I'm in this tribe.
The "Working Class or Red Leavers", 15% of the population, are not so much anti-immigration as anti-establishment. They are mostly young, disadvantaged in the working class towns and cities of Labour heartlands. They support Corbyn as anti-establishment. The establishment is now Brexit so this 15% could switch to Remain.
The latter was actually more anti immigration than the first, it was sovereignty which motivated the first.
Comments
Best option right now is to tell the EU that we will run two sets of talks - preparations for WTO (which will not involve any discussion of the Brexit Bill) and, if they like, a second strand to talk about a better outcome with an FTA with a possible transition period and discussion of the Brexit bill.
It is only the endless fear mongering of the remainers that has prevented the Government facing the reality that we have to look at WTO as the default outcome.
As previously discussed, I distrust online betting. So previously I've done my betting by going into a betting shop like a proper grownup and going up to the counter to fill out the slip. That was fine in the days of Brexit ref & 2015 GE, but these days all the election bets are on foreign elections and the girl/guy behind the counter gets confused by that foreign muck (it was a total arse placing a bet on Macron: she had to call in the manager). I don't want to be waving a bunch of fifties in front of somebody who gets flustered, betting is scary enough as is. Is there a shop or something that has a politics-savvy frontperson?
The EU are acting like coming up with a reasonable deal isn't in the best interests of both parties. They really are a bunch of wankers.
How the fuck did our spineless politicians sign us up to being in this organisation in the first place against the wishes of the majority of voters.
https://twitter.com/rnz_news/status/921154324046135296
Full text of the ECAA Agreement here:
http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=CELEX:22006A1016(01):EN:HTML
As a side note, she pointed out that the EU itself only has observer status in this agreement anyway. http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/documents-publications/agreements-conventions/agreement/?aid=2006052
Over to the lawyers, but it doesn't appear to be the case that by leaving the EU we automatically leave this Agreement. Article 50 seems to take you out "Treaties" which seems to be defined as TEU and TFEU. On first glance neither seem to supercede this agreement?
The ECAA has a separate termination mechanism of its own (Article 31), so unless by triggering Article 50 we are implied to have triggered the termination mechanism here, presumably this agreement continues in force? The sting in the tail is that the ECJ is the arbiter on disputes.
In any case, even if we do leave this agreement in the future - Article 31 seems to give us a grace period to put in place new arrangements:
Article 31: Each Contracting Party may denounce this Agreement by notifying the depository. [...] If this Agreement is denounced by any other Contracting Party it shall cease to be in force only with respect to such Contracting Party one year after the date of notification. However, air services operated at the date of expiry of this Agreement may continue until the end of the International Air Transport Association (IATA) scheduling season into which that date of expiry falls.
If you doubt this point, I must fall back on the riposte that I usually give to RichardNabavi of this parish when he makes similar points: if we are so vital to the EU, why are they stalling? If we are so insouciant about a deal, why are we urging speed?
I don't accept your maths re tourists at all. Spain etc would suffer. The UK tourism industry won't.
And on your final point, if the UK is so superfluous to the EU, why were they so desperate for us not to leave in the first place?
http://www.thetrumpybear.com/
Here's just one example from a bookmaker of repute;
http://helpcentre.ladbrokes.com/app/answers/detail/a_id/237/~/other-ways-to-bet
AIUI, all of the major bookies have telephone betting services, usually with a minimum stake of at least £10, usually £25, but sometimes £50 or £100. I know betfair also take bets on their exchange over the phone, or at least that was the case a couple of years ago when I last tried.
You generally (always?) have to set up an account over the phone and there will be kyc ("know your customer") verification either when you sign up, or before you withdraw any winnings.
Unfortunately, in my experience the maximum bet stake on many politics markets these days is quite low - often not much more than their minimum telephone bet, so in order to get a decent stake on, it's best to call in your bet during sane office-type hours and hope that the telephone betting person is able to call through for authorization from the actual traders who price up the market.
Hope this helps.
The impasse is caused by the government having unreasonable expectations. The EU can't treat the UK as a special case - doing so would undermine the whole organisation. The "best" that can be hoped for is a Norway deal - that's if the government wants to have its cake and eat it. Getting the perks of EU membership for free is not on the table. The government has the option of going for hard Brexit - not what any main UK political party wants, not what the UK public wants, not what the EU wants - but the consequences would be grave for the UK and grave for the Tory party. We can already see that the crap negotiating is causing a slip in Tory support and a slip in Brexit support, and a total failure in the negotiations is more likely to see the Tories down to the mid-30% range rather than a "10-point boost".
The spin won't work. What we need is results.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/921164208066170881
We don't want the 'perks' of membership. All most leavers want is a Canada style FTA where we don't have any other entanglement in EU law or policy. And that is not unrealistic at all.
https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201617/ldselect/ldeucom/76/7607.htm
No one wants to rip up the agreement, so why make it into an issue?
What sort of fine / sanctions can they expect from the EU if they don’t set up sufficient controls in time for Brexit ?
Why does the EU want to build a new border at all ?
http://www.lefigaro.fr/conso/2017/10/20/20010-20171020ARTFIG00019-la-production-de-miel-francais-a-l-arret.php
WTO rules, the ones the loons want to revert to, compel a border.
short sighted of them
Also will no one think of the poor Republican gangs who will face disruptionmoving their narcotics around ?
http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/crime/we-couldnt-put-rosary-beads-in-his-hands-they-smashed-him-up-so-badly-mum-of-man-murdered-by-ira-gang-36244412.html
there are cigarettes and diesel too
Mr Varadkar said he disagreed with remarks made by European Commissioner Phil Hogan that the cliff edge of a hard Brexit is so close "we can see the drop almost in front of us". The Taoiseach said: "I think we have a way to go yet."
"Brexit doesn't happen until April 2019, so we're quite far back from the cliff edge".
http://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/eu-throws-down-gauntlet-with-eightweek-deadline-on-brexit-36244790.html
you said that ad nauseam during the campaign
they simply voted to come out and take their chances
you forgot the bus and £350 million by the way
anyway off to work
How quickly and suddenly has everything changed over the last few years?
They kept saying, "but that's free movement, not immigration."
"The old in Britain have stolen the future from the young''
https://www.channel4.com/news/wim-wenders-on-trump-brexit-and-harvey-weinstein
They were alternatively promised all the daemons escaping from Hell as per the brilliant Private Eye cover.
The only obvious miscalculation that was made was that I certainly didn't expect a vocal minority who opposed what had been agreed getting so much airtime.
Our European colleagues are being remarkably unconstructive over the negotiations - I think that possibiltity was half-expected. I do think the endless negativity from within the UK has given then a false sense of hope.
Personally I know that we have to go through the negotiations but they are very draining and if nothing is to be gained then the sooner we cut to the endgame the better. The beef mountain in Ireland, the wine lake in Italy and the car mountain in France will soon bring Johnny Foreigner to his senses.
The only obvious miscalculation that was made was that I certainly didn't expect a vocal minority who opposed what had been agreed getting so much airtime.
Our European colleagues are being remarkably unconstructive over the negotiations - I think that possibiltity was half-expected. I do think the endless negativity from within the UK has given then a false sense of hope.
Personally I know that we have to go through the negotiations but they are very draining and if nothing is to be gained then the sooner we cut to the endgame the better. The beef mountain in Ireland, the wine lake in Italy and the car mountain in France will soon bring Johnny Foreigner to his senses.
So were those who told us doing a deal would be the easiest thing in the world and that German car manufacturers would be demanding one lying or just stupid?
Could the bet fail or look terrible in weeks? Of course it could. People are overestimating an obvious risk to an evens bet because it's obvious.
Free movement is more accurate than immigration: people do emigrate using free movement provisions, but they also live and work temporarily in locations before returning home. The UK pensioners that winter in Spain don’t emigrate there; neither do the young Europeans who do a year or two here emigrate to the UK.
Short of him quitting I can't see how he goes.
2019 I expect there will be evidence and political will for Dems to start impeachment.
In general every time a airline wants to fly from home country X to country You coy tries X and Y have to sign a agreement at the government level.
Europe has the most liberal open skies policy in the world, it is a massive boon for air transport.
It might be interesting to compare the ratio of people who retire abroad to people who work abroad for each country.
And how many British people who do work abroad do so in the USA, Canada, Australia or even places like Dubai and Singapore rather than in other European countries ?
The ratio of people living in outside the EU to living in other EU countries would also be interesting.
NEW THREAD
Three of the tribes are Leavers. The Leaver tribe most present on this blog is the "British Values Leavers". These are mostly elderly, Tory/UKIP, very anti-immigration, hanker after the old British culture, ideological and immune to argument. They are only 10% of the population but they have loud voices.
The corresponding Remainer tribe is "Older Liberal Remainer". These are also mostly older types, university educated, comfortable lifestyle, insulated from the problems of the angry disadvantaged, ideological and also immune to argument. They are 15% of the population and also make a lot of noise. I'm in this tribe.
The "Working Class or Red Leavers", 15% of the population, are not so much anti-immigration as anti-establishment. They are mostly young, disadvantaged in the working class towns and cities of Labour heartlands. They support Corbyn as anti-establishment. The establishment is now Brexit so this 15% could switch to Remain.