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  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    it's by no means impossible that the Tory Party destroys itself over the EU. It would be ironic that after a civil war starting in the '70's they should wait till the eve of leaving to finally self destruct. listening to the news it's a toss up who's reputation is faring worse. The Tories or Harvey Weinstein
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307

    47% think democracy is wrong? :lol:

    42% leave
    58% remain
  • Ishmael_Z said:

    Nigelb said:

    Elliot said:

    Sandpit said:

    J-C Drunker obviously had something in his breakfast tea today:
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jRpXH4XjG5I

    Juncker's position here is very reasonable. Paying for our commitments under the last budget agreements (the buying a round analogy) is a fair enough position. What is unreasonable is paying for things we haven't agreed to already like unfunded liabilities. Or demand an EU court to have ongoing jurisdiction but no reciprocity.
    Yes, we don't mind paying for the last round... but funding Juncker's bar tab for the next decade is well beyond what should be expected of anyone.

    Juncker is a serious embarrassment and in this country wouldn't have been left in place as chairman of the local Rotary Club. The fact that he is where he is in the EU is one of the best arguments for leaving.

    Boris Johnson is foreign secretary!!!!

    Liam Fox and Andrea Leadsom are in the cabinet!!!!!

  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Nigelb said:

    Elliot said:

    Sandpit said:

    J-C Drunker obviously had something in his breakfast tea today:
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jRpXH4XjG5I

    Juncker's position here is very reasonable. Paying for our commitments under the last budget agreements (the buying a round analogy) is a fair enough position. What is unreasonable is paying for things we haven't agreed to already like unfunded liabilities. Or demand an EU court to have ongoing jurisdiction but no reciprocity.
    Yes, we don't mind paying for the last round... but funding Juncker's bar tab for the next decade is well beyond what should be expected of anyone.

    Juncker is a serious embarrassment and in this country wouldn't have been left in place as chairman of the local Rotary Club. The fact that he is where he is in the EU is one of the best arguments for leaving.

    Boris Johnson is foreign secretary!!!!

    Liam Fox and Andrea Leadsom are in the cabinet!!!!!

    Juncker is in another class altogether.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    Sandpit said:

    MTimT said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    TGOHF said:


    Once we leave and sign up a few trade deals - we would then be in the position of having to cancel them to come back into the EU.

    Not going to happen.

    If and only if those deals give us more advantageous terms than the EU has with markets where we have a considerable trade surplus. A couple of those would be enough to constitute a successful Brexit. But I have a feeling they might not be that easy to come by.

    That’s a surprising list of countries, that’s changed rapidly in the last few years as the oil price has come down.

    In 2016, United Kingdom incurred the highest trade surpluses with the following countries:
    United Arab Emirates: US$7.4 billion (country-specific trade surplus in 2016)
    Ireland: $5.3 billion
    Saudi Arabia: $4.2 billion
    Singapore: $3.8 billion
    United States: $1.3 billion
    Hong Kong: $1.1 billion
    Macedonia: $832.3 million
    Egypt: $780.3 million
    Qatar: $688.9 million
    Oman: $539.3 million
    http://www.worldstopexports.com/united-kingdoms-top-import-partners/

    Without spending all night drilling into the data, I’d say that to those countries the surpluses will be in oil & gas services, financial services, construction services & equipment, and motor vehicles.
    Surely a lot of those surpluses are our gun-running to Middle East absolutists, on top of the other things that you mention.
    Well the BAe Systems and RAF marketing departments are currently touring nine red Hawks around the region, if that’s what you mean ;)

    More Jaguars, McLarens, JCBs and oil diggers though - and lots of financial services.
    Sandpit, you're forgetting all the Cadbury's ...
    Ah yes, although I think my wife single handedly accounts for a measurable amount of the UAE’s chocolate sales!

    And the visitors from the US, who can’t get the proper stuff there any more. :)
    Outside a restaurant in Villefranche last week there was a white McLaren with the number plate 'Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Royal 1'. That's quite a journey!
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Nigelb said:

    Elliot said:

    Sandpit said:

    J-C Drunker obviously had something in his breakfast tea today:
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jRpXH4XjG5I

    Juncker's position here is very reasonable. Paying for our commitments under the last budget agreements (the buying a round analogy) is a fair enough position. What is unreasonable is paying for things we haven't agreed to already like unfunded liabilities. Or demand an EU court to have ongoing jurisdiction but no reciprocity.
    Yes, we don't mind paying for the last round... but funding Juncker's bar tab for the next decade is well beyond what should be expected of anyone.

    Juncker is a serious embarrassment and in this country wouldn't have been left in place as chairman of the local Rotary Club. The fact that he is where he is in the EU is one of the best arguments for leaving.

    Boris Johnson is foreign secretary!!!!

    Liam Fox and Andrea Leadsom are in the cabinet!!!!!

    Juncker is in another class altogether.
    All remedial though
  • Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Nigelb said:

    Elliot said:

    Sandpit said:

    J-C Drunker obviously had something in his breakfast tea today:
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jRpXH4XjG5I

    Juncker's position here is very reasonable. Paying for our commitments under the last budget agreements (the buying a round analogy) is a fair enough position. What is unreasonable is paying for things we haven't agreed to already like unfunded liabilities. Or demand an EU court to have ongoing jurisdiction but no reciprocity.
    Yes, we don't mind paying for the last round... but funding Juncker's bar tab for the next decade is well beyond what should be expected of anyone.

    Juncker is a serious embarrassment and in this country wouldn't have been left in place as chairman of the local Rotary Club. The fact that he is where he is in the EU is one of the best arguments for leaving.

    Boris Johnson is foreign secretary!!!!

    Liam Fox and Andrea Leadsom are in the cabinet!!!!!

    Juncker is in another class altogether.

    Not when viewed from Europe. Those who do not laugh at Johnson hold him in total contempt. Many do both.

  • nielh said:

    47% think democracy is wrong? :lol:

    42% leave
    58% remain
    The question was about the EU vote :p
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,639
    edited October 2017
    Roger said:

    it's by no means impossible that the Tory Party destroys itself over the EU. It would be ironic that after a civil war starting in the '70's they should wait till the eve of leaving to finally self destruct. listening to the news it's a toss up who's reputation is faring worse. The Tories or Harvey Weinstein

    What really would destroy the Tories over Europe would be backing staying in the single market post Brexit and a transition period longer than 2 years with uncontrolled free movement during that time and large payments to the EU. The Tories would then see mass defections of voters and members to UKIP.

    Once Brexit is completed, deal or no deal, Boris will probably take over as PM, Gove as Chancellor, maybe Davis or Fox as Foreign Secretary to lead post-Brexit Britain, May and Hammond will leave the scene and the Leavers will take over the key roles of government better reflecting the 80% of Tory voters who now back Brexit, rather than having a PM and Chancellor who both backed Remain as is the case now.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,520
    edited October 2017
    Roger said:

    Sandpit said:

    MTimT said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    TGOHF said:



    Without spending all night drilling into the data, I’d say that to those countries the surpluses will be in oil & gas services, financial services, construction services & equipment, and motor vehicles.
    Surely a lot of those surpluses are our gun-running to Middle East absolutists, on top of the other things that you mention.
    Well the BAe Systems and RAF marketing departments are currently touring nine red Hawks around the region, if that’s what you mean ;)

    More Jaguars, McLarens, JCBs and oil diggers though - and lots of financial services.
    Sandpit, you're forgetting all the Cadbury's ...
    Ah yes, although I think my wife single handedly accounts for a measurable amount of the UAE’s chocolate sales!

    And the visitors from the US, who can’t get the proper stuff there any more. :)
    Outside a restaurant in Villefranche last week there was a white McLaren with the number plate 'Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Royal 1'. That's quite a journey!
    Yeah, the rich kids of the Gulf often fly with their cars to Europe for the summer, it’s something like $10k each way to air freight the car. They have a bad reputation in Knightsbridge for bad parking and driving like idiots, to the point where the UAE govt have started charging them with dangerous driving when they get back home - based on their own posted videos! They’ve also started giving community service as punishments, as they don’t care about fines.

    I actually brokered a deal last year to buy a McLaren here for a British customer and ship it back to the UK - expensive cars depreciate much faster in the Gulf, as there’s so many of them around and everyone wants this year’s model. A 3 year old Ferrari F12 goes for about a third of the new price here, compared to more than half the new price in Europe. Both McLaren and Ferrari are making absolutely stunning cars at the moment, the British startup has come from nowhere in six years to competing hard with the Italians.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 29,439

    In the hard- Brexiteer's mind he envisions a misty eyed post-Brexit world of rolling hills, red telephone kiosks and half-timbered Morris Minors.

    I see empty factories, grounded aircraft and tumbleweed rolling through the City of London.

    Both might be extreme views, but at least mine has at least a grain of possibility about it!

    No it doesn't.
    We shall no doubt see whether I am wrong and you are right. Sooner than you think if Davis reveals these studies he has so far been reluctant to show us.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Another day, another loads of remainers calling anyone with a different opinion "nutjobs".

    And they wonder why they lost the referendum.

    I think it was mike who wanted the name calling to stop,especially the remoaners comment but it seems the remain side can say what they want.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,520

    In the hard- Brexiteer's mind he envisions a misty eyed post-Brexit world of rolling hills, red telephone kiosks and half-timbered Morris Minors.

    I see empty factories, grounded aircraft and tumbleweed rolling through the City of London.

    Both might be extreme views, but at least mine has at least a grain of possibility about it!

    No it doesn't.
    We shall no doubt see whether I am wrong and you are right. Sooner than you think if Davis reveals these studies he has so far been reluctant to show us.
    It’ll be 30 years before we see papers like that, right now they’ll be classified secret - and with bloody good reason.
  • HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    it's by no means impossible that the Tory Party destroys itself over the EU. It would be ironic that after a civil war starting in the '70's they should wait till the eve of leaving to finally self destruct. listening to the news it's a toss up who's reputation is faring worse. The Tories or Harvey Weinstein

    What really would destroy the Tories over Europe would be backing staying in the single market post Brexit and a transition period longer than 2 years with uncontrolled free movement during that time and large payments to the EU. The Tories would then see mass defections of voters and members to UKIP.

    Once Brexit is completed, deal or no deal, Boris will probably take over as PM, Gove as Chancellor, maybe Davis or Fox as Foreign Secretary to lead post-Brexit Britain, May and Hammond will leave the scene and the Leavers will take over the key roles of government better reflecting the 80% of Tory voters who now back Brexit, rather than having a PM and Chancellor who both backed Remain as is the case now.

    And that will be the last Tory government of my lifetime. If I live long enough to see it! Liam Fox as foreign secretary :-D

  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    If labour were in power,the EU would run all over us if we get anything from this interview.

    Let's just say labour haven't a clue what to do.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=faARZjOcQww
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,139
    Now the first has been successfully bagged.... new thread!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,639
    edited October 2017

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    it's by no means impossible that the Tory Party destroys itself over the EU. It would be ironic that after a civil war starting in the '70's they should wait till the eve of leaving to finally self destruct. listening to the news it's a toss up who's reputation is faring worse. The Tories or Harvey Weinstein

    What really would destroy the Tories over Europe would be backing staying in the single market post Brexit and a transition period longer than 2 years with uncontrolled free movement during that time and large payments to the EU. The Tories would then see mass defections of voters and members to UKIP.

    Once Brexit is completed, deal or no deal, Boris will probably take over as PM, Gove as Chancellor, maybe Davis or Fox as Foreign Secretary to lead post-Brexit Britain, May and Hammond will leave the scene and the Leavers will take over the key roles of government better reflecting the 80% of Tory voters who now back Brexit, rather than having a PM and Chancellor who both backed Remain as is the case now.

    And that will be the last Tory government of my lifetime. If I live long enough to see it! Liam Fox as foreign secretary :-D

    Not necessarily as long as Corbyn remains Tory leader the Tories may have 1 more election victory in them provided they get their Leave voters out for them and go hard on tax
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    Opinion polls after referenda are pointless and certainly un-actable upon. The only poll that mattered was the one on referendum day, when many people who were factored into the Yougov poll -especially the young -chose to disenfranchise themselves and not vote. You cannot change a referendum result because polling companies have changed their methodology after the general election, and decided that the young would definitely vote for Remain if it happened all over again. This is almost certainly what has happened. There has been no change among those who voted. The polls are just deciding that the young should be factored in more heavily. Whatever these polls now say is irrelevant.
This discussion has been closed.