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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Those thinking the leave EU vote was wrong take biggest lead yet in YouGov’s Brexit Tracker
After more than a ear of producing results showing that voters were split almost down the middle over Brexit the latest YouGov tracker now has those saying it was wrong leading by 5 points
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So now come the denunciations and the show trials. This week’s enemy within is Chancellor Philip Hammond, whose behaviour, according to the former Chancellor and arch-Brexiteer Nigel Lawson, is “very close to sabotage”.
Mr Hammond’s “crime” is that he is insufficiently enthusiastic about the progress of the revolution. The fact that British business and the rest of the world regard him as one of the grown-ups in the Government grappling with the true challenges of Brexit only confirms their paranoia that he’s a fifth columnist.
https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/evening-standard-comment-brexit-hardliners-put-living-standards-at-risk-a3657926.html
I suspect this is just noise TBH.
Main opposition to Brexit still coming from LDs and Remain still cannot get to 50% let alone over it
Even then, it won’t change things, we’re leaving for good or ill.
ear, high (sb May), havw
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/918814160045199360
https://twitter.com/TelePolitics/status/918756199847288832
The government will have to cancel Brexit, or Brexit will cancel the government.
http://www.itv.com/news/update/2017-10-11/brexit-dup-fear-disaster-no-deal-border-implications/
Would show Brexit isn’t being managed very well.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/918813102682071040
Stay the single market then, dipshit.
As TSE says, it’s hard to get excited about anything less than a good double-digit lead to match the hardcore Brexiters double-digit gesture in the direction of reality. While this could be the start of a sharp move following on from increasing dissatisfaction with the government’s non-handling of negotiations it doesn’t seem that likely.
I guess the interesting point here is what happens as the government is seen as handling the negotiations badly: does it play out as decreased Tory support, increased support for removing May, or increased conviction that we shouldn’t leave. Obviously there will be an element of all three but it would be interesting to see whether any correlation can be observed.
Or an SDPer because his son joined the SDP
This is the table of all YouGov post referendum polling and I cannot see the numbers you suggest.
Wrong has never been above 45% before. Right has never been at 42% before.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/uzdpdwbul2/YG Trackers - EU Tracker Questions_W.pdf
The downside to this combination is that everyone of all political persuasions would hate it, but if you can't remove the rock and you can't get out of the hard place...
Solves this problem, and a few others too.
Seems fitting as we approach the 100th birthday of Eire.
Osborne is certainly closer ideologically now to Cable than to May and Boris on most issues
E.g. compare March - Unweighted: Leave 816, Remain 936
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/rlhcaejxm0/TimesResults_170327_VI_Trackers_W.pdf
with October - Unweighted: Leave 699, Remain 743
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ptmrf0v5kz/Timesresults_171011_VI_Trackers.pdf
The Conservatives had Heath, Thatcher and IDS all of whom represented London constituencies. WSC had constituencies on the edge of London but not actually in London.
Back to Newmarket.
Ruth & her acolytes must be disappointed after 'winning' the election in Scotland to now be in third place on 23%; not much to crow about for someone who loves a good crow.
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/918775355829301253
Malvinas to Argentina too
https://twitter.com/edconwaysky/status/918826090780610560
WSC was Epping and Woodford MP, my present abode.
Gaitskell - Leeds, Wilson - Liverpool, Callagahan - Cardiff, Foot - Ebbw Vale, Kinnock - welsh seat whose name escapes me, Smith - Glasgow, Blair - Sedgefield, Brown - Kirkaldy, Miliband - Doncaster.
It is hilarious Nats are 'celebrating' 40%, 5% less than Yes got in 2014, given before June they were expecting a clear mandate for indyref2 not losing almost half their seats
John Smith was Monklands East, not Glasgow
If the predicted economic damage comes - then that will move opinions much more obviously. But it may be too late then.
I do think it would be wise for someone to be working on a 'get back into the EU strategy' just in case public opinion shifts quickly.
If the Republic had been genuinely enthusiastic to reunify with the north the Brits would have been happy to give it to them from the early 70s onwards.
In Scotland, 8 SNP gains (5 from Con and 3 from LD incl Jo Swinson)
In GB, Con lose 37 (incl Amber Rudd and Zac Godsmith), Lab gain 31, LD lose net 1, PC lose 1, SNP gain 8.
Overall, Labour 33 short of a majority. (SNP on 43 and LDs on 11)
EDIT: He beat plenty of future Tory MPs there, it seems:
Paul Marland 1970
Tim Yeo 1974F
Peter Brooke 1974O
Robert Walter 1979
Peter Bone 1992
Very f*****ing Bed Wetty
John Redwood out did himself on the twatbadger stakes yesterday.
Check out what Foreign Office minister Nicholas Ridley - that raving Corbynite anti-imperialist - said to Falkland Islanders not long before the invasion....basically we can't afford to defend you so accept Argentina having shared sovereignty and make the best of it.
I don't really buy this us causing lots of trouble argument, Brexit isn't even that big a political issue in EU countries as far as I can see.
If we get a transition deal which takes away our voting rights but leaves everything else the same (my rough understanding of what TM proposed), then it will still be much easier to stay in at the end of the transition than to leave.
They know that as long as they stick together, the government can't be blown apart by the backbenchers. Boris just has to throw out some red meat from time to time in the form of some meaningless rhetoric to keep the more rabid Leavers happy, meanwhile they get on with quietly kicking Brexit into the long grass.
Following on from my previous at the end of the previous thread, I've done a very crude crunching of the numbers for the Wards in Boris Johnson's constituency. Boris has eight Wards and 24 Councillors which in 2014 split 23 Con and 1 Lab.
Putting in a 6% notional swing from Con to Lab, Labour win 8 seats leaving the split 14-9. The Conservatives currently run Hillingdon 42-23 so with no other changes that would make it 34-31 but I've not looked at the Wards in Nick Hurd's constituency that are in Hillingdon so it's possible there might be enough movement there for Lab to pick up a couple of extra seats.
In Boris's seat of Uxbridge & South Ruislip, I estimate Brunel, Hillingdon East and South Ruislip would become split Wards (2 Con, 1 Lab) while Labour would win both the remaining Uxbridge South seats (they already hold one) and all three in Yiewsley. This is quick and dirty number crunching with no end of caveats, assumptions and misconceptions.
If Tory tactical voting SNP to stop Labour succeeded in say ten seats, then labour would be 43 short of a majority and the SNP would be on 53. It doesn't change the high level picture much.
The idea that allowing the Chancellor to be attacked because he points out, quite reasonably, the issues involved is some sort of worthwhile tactical manoeuvre is strange, to say the least.
All it is doing is undermining the government and the country. It is also getting us nowhere in terms of an outcome which works for the majority.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyramine
Which I think accounts for the weird dreams sometimes experienced:
https://www.nature.com/scitable/blog/mind-read/sweet_dreams_are_made_of
I've never suffered from depression, and certainly have never been on meds, but I have experienced the odd seriously bad night after overindulging (Stilton, rather than Chianti - where there are perhaps confounding factors...)
But yes - no deal and then back in would be very difficult as you say.
BINO transition (needs a catchier title) largely puts off the tough decisions - I think that would be more tempting - and could be agreed quite quickly.
Britain could only rejoin once it had reached a consensus that it was signing up for the whole shebang. That would happen only if Brexit was catastrophic. So don't hold your breath.
It may be a bad idea, but I fear Brexit does indeed mean Brexit!
Whether or not we could still militarily defend the islands, our ownership of the Falklands is now an outdated colonial anachronism from which we gain zero benefit, ie it is a big waste of money. Hence Ridley's comments, and they are even more true today.
The EU have consistently said they are stronger with Britain, they regret us leaving... if we came to regret it also - they would hardly push us away if there was a route for us to rejoin/stay in easily.