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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New YouGov CON members poll finds fewer than a third wanting T

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  • Not really

    See Carney has said this morning rates will rise as soon as November.

    I think it was Pong last night who was saying there will be no rate rises for a long time.

    Seems within 2 months a small rate rise will happen and no doubt the pound will strengthen on the news
    The pound has already strengthened in anticipation of a rate rise from 0.25% to 0.5%. Don't expect further strengthening.
  • TOPPING said:

    The shame is that the result, rather than lancing the boil, instead just opened the wound but this time within the country, not just the Conservative Party.

    Was that foreseeable? Perhaps. But these are old discussions; to use 2017's phrase of the year: it is what it is.
    Cameron called the referendum to dish the Eurosceptics in the Tory Party, anchor the UK firmly in the EU and secure his legacy as the man who resolved the European question for a generation. But he ended up making the most catastrophic political misjudgment in post-war history and instead of resolving anything the referendum has made the problem much worse for both his party and his country.

  • It does seem as if those on the left think Jeremy is virtually home and dry but on listening to question time last night it did not come over all 'Jeremy' and when Lavery said 'they were a Government in waiting' the audience laughed at him. On the subsequent Steven Nolan 5 live phone in there was similar resistance to Jeremy

    I am not an expert (missed Mark Senior) on last night locals but labour seem to have improved in their areas, but so did the conservatives in theirs.

    The question for Corbyn supporters is not how he extends his base but how, in the end, he gets middle England to vote for him and so far there is little evidence they will

    Don't want to place too much weight on this, but the Mumsnet (i.e. left-ish middle class Middle England) reaction to Corbyn's performance has been extremely encouraging for his opponents!

    https://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/3045998-AIBU-to-think-the-singing-of-the-Jeremy-Corbyn-song-was-quite-sweet?pg=1

    "I find all that uncritical adulation a bit creepy not to say Trumpesque."

    "I found it all creepy and culty. I also looked at some MPs joining in the singing and thought it showed just what they will do for power."

    "It made me want to puke tbh. I have to switch over when I see his face."

    "I am deeply uncomfortable that JC does not seem to be truly committed to routing out antisemitism in his party. The platitudes about racism being unacceptable ring rather hollow when you look at the fact that he was absent from the Labour Friends of Israel meeting. Given all of the very real problems his party has had with antisemitism, why would you skip it?"

    "One line chanted over and over by a bunch of idiots isn't "singing". It's at best toe-curlingly awful, at worst fucking creepy.

    Personality cult is about right - all the swivel eyed hard left wingers are throwing everything they can at this man who has neither the skills nor personality to lead a Scout troop never mind the country."

    "The many are for the feudal."

    LOL!
  • NEW THREAD

  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    TOPPING said:

    The shame is that the result, rather than lancing the boil, instead just opened the wound but this time within the country, not just the Conservative Party.

    Was that foreseeable? Perhaps. But these are old discussions; to use 2017's phrase of the year: it is what it is.
    Very true as I said before the result is to leave , hope it works out well .
  • HHemmeligHHemmelig Posts: 617
    edited September 2017
    MattW said:

    Alex Salmond held seats in both Holyrood and Westminster Parliaments simultaneously for a total of 4 years or more.

    There would be a barrage of sanctimonious wibble from the other parties, but the precedent is there for a party leader and in the shorter term (9 months?) for a First Minister, if not a PM.
    Salmond's two constituencies were next door to each other, and indeed had a small overlap IIRC. Davidson's problem is that if she is to be installed as an MP there is nowhere in Scotland where a by-election could realistically be engineered and the Tories would have a 90% plus chance of holding the seat. That would mean a safe seat having to be found for her somewhere in middle England, where an ageing centrist incumbent is willing to make way (incidentally I could envisage my own MP Soames in Mid Sussex making way for her in return for a peerage). But that would reflect exceptionally badly on both the Scottish Tories and Davidson herself....and of course there's no guarantee either of winning the by-election or the leadership contest. I don't think there's any realistic way around Davidson stepping down as an MSP and standing as an MP at the next GE.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Not really

    See Carney has said this morning rates will rise as soon as November.

    I think it was Pong last night who was saying there will be no rate rises for a long time.

    Seems within 2 months a small rate rise will happen and no doubt the pound will strengthen on the news
    The pound has strengthened in anticipation of a rate rise and probably will not move much higher. If rates fail to go up sterling is likely to fall back again.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,746

    Cameron called the referendum to dish the Eurosceptics in the Tory Party, anchor the UK firmly in the EU and secure his legacy as the man who resolved the European question for a generation. But he ended up making the most catastrophic political misjudgment in post-war history and instead of resolving anything the referendum has made the problem much worse for both his party and his country.

    Except, without the referendum he would have gone down with probability one as a never-was prime minister because he wouldn't have got back into power.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Sandpit said:

    As I understand it the US government are paying for services, ie to launch satellites for the government - mainly because they’re cheaper than NASA for certain payloads.

    When we leave the EU it will be easier for the British government to buy British without the pesky EU procurement rules, although I’m not sure that was your point ;)
    It is by no means just putting business his way: the LA Times thinks he has had $4.9bn in subsidies http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-hy-musk-subsidies-20150531-story.html
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited September 2017
    TOPPING said:

    @MattW

    I yesterday made the analogy of the payday lenders where you can show, pretty simply, that taking into account likely default rates, together with other cost factors, you can get to a "reasonable" interest rate of around 300% without too much trouble.

    Likewise landbanks - as both Shelter and (more predictably, but no less validly) the HBF point out - there are many reasons for the developers to have such a landbank as they do, including as you say newts and TPOs and whatnot.

    Interest rate calculations on payday loans don’t make sense in the real world.

    As an example, if I borrow £20 from you in the pub tonight, and agree that next week I pay you back the £20 next Friday and buy you a £3 pint to say thanks, that works out as an APR of something like 140,000% if compounded weekly, I’d owe you £28k after 52 weeks. :o
  • With about 3/4 of the annual trade deficit being accounted for by the UK's net imports from the EU (circa £70bn per annum), and about 30% from Germany alone.

    A state of affairs which we are, inexplicably, so desparate to keep in place that we are prepared to pay the EU for the privilege.
    Thanks, there's at least two of us here who can see that state of affairs cannot go on forever.
This discussion has been closed.