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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Every day Mrs May remains PM she’s buying the Tories at least

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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,048
    edited September 2017

    I never would have thought I'd be cheering on Alastair Campbell, but here we are.

    http://www.alastaircampbell.org/blog/2017/09/21/speech-why-i-find-it-impossible-to-get-behind-brexit-and-why-mps-and-business-need-to-fight-harder-against-it/

    Brexiteers – and some Remainers – tell me I am wasting my time, it is going to happen, I should use my energies to try to help make it a success. But I cannot get behind something I believe to be so wrong, so incompetently handled, so against the interests of the next generation. I see no happy ending in this. I may not be wholly confident in thinking it can be stopped. But I am totally convinced it should be. And it is anything but anti democratic to say that in a democracy, people have the right to change their minds, and change course. I hope we do.

    Funny just yesterday lots of Remainers on here were claimimgbthat no one was trying to srop Brexit.
    I respect the vote last year too. It's the vote last year that will lead to the political destruction of the Brexiteers.
    A reply that is not only completely wrong but also fails to address the point i was making which is that, counter to the claims made by Remainers yesterday , there are plenty of people actively campaigning to stop Brexit by any means necessary. They may be deluded but that does not mean one can pretend they don't exist.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,024
    That says that Barnier has either seen a draft or a summary of what the PM is going to say. Looks like the adults in the room are making progress.
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    We're unaccustomed to such dynamism from Eurocrats. Barnier's badly jangled.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,468
    stevef said:

    tyson said:

    tyson said:

    On topic, it's not completely impossible for May to turn it around. Corbyn was doing a lot worse than May is now a year ago and he is now in a very strong position.

    Who knows what might happen in the next 5 years.

    Corbyn needed a few tweaks and fine tunings to get a grip of his poor ratings....not to get tetchy under scrutiny for instance....

    May needs to replace her brain with the brain of someone who isn't robotic and shows a bit of personality.
    Corbyn was practically being carried away by the men in white coats in his own party before the election. It wasn't just a case of fine tuning.
    Corbyn's ability to soldier on despite the mass resignations and press frenzy following the EU vote was one of the most remarkable pieces of political tenacity, courage and resilience shown by any leader in any democracy. To face down his internal opposition, win a resounding leadership campaign and then deprive May of a majority was quite astonishing.

    I'm no Corbynite by any stretch, but I admire him. I cannot see any Tory leader who would beat him in a GE given present circumstances.
    Corbyn has to win three times as many seats next time as he did in 2017 and to do so in seats which require a direct swing from Tory to Labour. it is unlikely. As for Corbyn's survival post Brexit, it was one of the most undemocratic events in our history as MPs with millions of votes mandating them were ignored at the expense of thousands. As for the 2017 election, Labour would be in power right now if Corbyn were not leader.
    Unless the Conservatives make a reasonable fist of Brexit Corbyn is your next PM. As it stands a pain free Brexit is less than likely.

    The Conservatives have that 1997 aroma of decay around them at present and every generation except those eligible for a Saga holiday can smell it.

    Your best hope of avoiding a Corbyn Premiership is probably divine intervention. Amen!
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    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited September 2017
    So he needs no time to consider or think.

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    MP_SE2 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    RobD said:

    If there were grown ups in the room, Juncker would have been sacked, the nations leaders all reject federalism and recognise free movement needs overhauling.

    Name one national leader who thinks free movement within the EU should end.
    Someone says they are open to compromise:

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-blair/eu-leaders-willing-to-compromise-on-freedom-of-movement-says-tony-blair-idUSKBN1A0086
    The worrying thing is, Blair is a complete chump, but there is a realistic possiblity that he has the respect of people in the eu whose respect is worth having, and the intellect and adulthood required to have a constructive discussion with them; unlike anyone in government.

    Btw whom is she addressing in Florence? I was assuming that there was some eu summity thing going on, but is there? Or has she just randomly booked a church hall to orate in like she did in the GE "campaign"?
    The rebate scandal suggests we were never respected no matter how much we played ball.
    The same goes for Major and the Social Chapter debacle.
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    PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    "I'm told negotiator EU Michel Barnier is likely to respond within 15 minutes of Theresa May making her big EU speech in Florence tomorrow" - no need to listen then.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,217
    This thread title is not really true. May is actually as popular as her party, liked by 38% ie the same as the Tories however Corbyn is less popular than his, liked by 46% compared to 54%.

    That suggests if Labour had a moderate leader they would have a bigger lead than they do now and Corbyn is still holding them back, however the Tories need someone extra special to win most seats for a 4th consecutive general election and let us not forget only Boris of the potential contendors has taken the Tory rating higher than May does in any hypothetical Tory leadership poll since the election

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9939
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    MP_SE2 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    RobD said:

    If there were grown ups in the room, Juncker would have been sacked, the nations leaders all reject federalism and recognise free movement needs overhauling.

    Name one national leader who thinks free movement within the EU should end.
    Someone says they are open to compromise:

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-blair/eu-leaders-willing-to-compromise-on-freedom-of-movement-says-tony-blair-idUSKBN1A0086
    The worrying thing is, Blair is a complete chump, but there is a realistic possiblity that he has the respect of people in the eu whose respect is worth having, and the intellect and adulthood required to have a constructive discussion with them; unlike anyone in government.

    Btw whom is she addressing in Florence? I was assuming that there was some eu summity thing going on, but is there? Or has she just randomly booked a church hall to orate in like she did in the GE "campaign"?
    The rebate scandal suggests we were never respected no matter how much we played ball.
    The same goes for Major and the Social Chapter debacle.
    I mean Blair as an individual, not us as a country.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,468
    PAW said:

    Mexicanpete - count the diesels, multiply the Volkswagens by 50 as that is the real world figure for the NO2 polution by the tdis.

    ...you have me completely lost with that calculation
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,843
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:
    A ludicrous lack of logic there. The British government ignores the courts that have the power to compel it to act, so it must be subject to the rule of other courts based abroad that have absolutely no authority over it instead?

    It's the more amusing of course as Barnier himself ignored an ECJ ruling to lift an illegal French export ban on our beef (and that blatantly political ban, in a further irony, cost us around £60 billion).
    I think logical, although maybe objectionable, depending on your view. If the Home Office doesn't behave itself, and Barnier claims it has a history of misbehaving, individual citizens can go to a court in the confidence that there is a real sanction on the UK government should the Home Office not mend its ways.
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    HYUFD said:

    This thread title is not really true.

    One would hope not. TSE is predicting that if Theresa May leads the Conservative party into an election on 7 May 2020, the Tories will be out of power for at least one hundred and thirty-six years.

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    It will be interesting to see how this plays out. If May's speech is constructive and perceived as a fair offer by the voters and Barnier dishes it within 15 minutes, the EU and remainers will become unpopular very quickly and we will be entering the walk away mode, with the support of the Nation
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,048
    edited September 2017
    FF43 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:
    A ludicrous lack of logic there. The British government ignores the courts that have the power to compel it to act, so it must be subject to the rule of other courts based abroad that have absolutely no authority over it instead?

    It's the more amusing of course as Barnier himself ignored an ECJ ruling to lift an illegal French export ban on our beef (and that blatantly political ban, in a further irony, cost us around £60 billion).
    I think logical, although maybe objectionable, depending on your view. If the Home Office doesn't behave itself, and Barnier claims it has a history of misbehaving, individual citizens can go to a court in the confidence that there is a real sanction on the UK government should the Home Office not mend its ways.
    They can do that with the UK courts as has been proved time and time again. Your point is simply wrong.
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    PAW said:

    "I'm told negotiator EU Michel Barnier is likely to respond within 15 minutes of Theresa May making her big EU speech in Florence tomorrow" - no need to listen then.

    Barnier will say the £20bn is the cost of staying in the single market/customs union for the two transition years (£10bn a year like now), but is nothing to do with the divorce bill which remains £100bn.

    In a negotiation the UK should start from a position of paying nothing and work upwards - not start by offering £20bn.
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    PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    surbiton - every TDI produces 50 times more NO2 than Volkswagen claimed. It is a deliberate, uncaring, attack on the health of the UK. Made possible only by the pretence of common standards. Why has JLR met standards in the UK, but not any German manufacturer? What should be the penalty for killing thousands on people in the UK every year?
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    eekeek Posts: 25,093
    philiph said:

    So he needs no time to consider or think.

    Or he's already seen the speech....
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,217
    edited September 2017

    HYUFD said:

    This thread title is not really true.

    One would hope not. TSE is predicting that if Theresa May leads the Conservative party into an election on 7 May 2020, the Tories will be out of power for at least one hundred and thirty-six years.

    There would have to be a political realignment for that to occur and the Tories would effectively have to cease to exist and be replaced by a new centre right party
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    HYUFD said:

    This thread title is not really true.

    One would hope not. TSE is predicting that if Theresa May leads the Conservative party into an election on 7 May 2020, the Tories will be out of power for at least one hundred and thirty-six years.

    She's a modern Asquith. Discuss.
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    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    PAW said:

    "I'm told negotiator EU Michel Barnier is likely to respond within 15 minutes of Theresa May making her big EU speech in Florence tomorrow" - no need to listen then.

    It is said that he already has the speach so 15 mins is quite reasonble as for those who believe there is no need to listen then you typify the attitude that will see us done over just to achieve a dream which i'll never understand
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    PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    Germany is the dirty country in the EU. Building lignite power stations and shouting at the USA.
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    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    This thread title is not really true.

    One would hope not. TSE is predicting that if Theresa May leads the Conservative party into an election on 7 May 2020, the Tories will be out of power for at least one hundred and thirty-six years.
    There would have to be a political realignment for that to occur and the Tories would effectively have to cease to exist and be replaced by a new centre right party
    Effectively like the Liberals being replaced by Labour, except for the fact that the Conservatives don't have any right-wing opposition in Parliament. And the Liberals went out of office in October 1922 and came back in May 2010 (88 years), so it's actually 55% worse than that.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,843

    FF43 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:
    A ludicrous lack of logic there. The British government ignores the courts that have the power to compel it to act, so it must be subject to the rule of other courts based abroad that have absolutely no authority over it instead?

    It's the more amusing of course as Barnier himself ignored an ECJ ruling to lift an illegal French export ban on our beef (and that blatantly political ban, in a further irony, cost us around £60 billion).
    I think logical, although maybe objectionable, depending on your view. If the Home Office doesn't behave itself, and Barnier claims it has a history of misbehaving, individual citizens can go to a court in the confidence that there is a real sanction on the UK government should the Home Office not mend its ways.
    They can do thstvwithnthe UK courts as has been proved time and time again. Your point is simply wrong.
    As long as UK courts implement EU law and are subject to the ECJ. Strictly speaking they are not, but if domestic courts fail to follow ECJ case law, litigants can go to the ECJ and get the judgement there.

    BTW I think jurisdiction is a difficult issue to resolve. I am guessing the EU really are looking for equivalence, but in that case it's up to the UK negotiators to make a proposal and to explain why the guarantees under the alternative system are just as good.
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    HYUFD said:

    This thread title is not really true.

    One would hope not. TSE is predicting that if Theresa May leads the Conservative party into an election on 7 May 2020, the Tories will be out of power for at least one hundred and thirty-six years.

    She's a modern Asquith. Discuss.
    A genuine questions - who would you have as PM - how should Brexit progress
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,024

    PAW said:

    "I'm told negotiator EU Michel Barnier is likely to respond within 15 minutes of Theresa May making her big EU speech in Florence tomorrow" - no need to listen then.

    Barnier will say the £20bn is the cost of staying in the single market/customs union for the two transition years (£10bn a year like now), but is nothing to do with the divorce bill which remains £100bn.

    In a negotiation the UK should start from a position of paying nothing and work upwards - not start by offering £20bn.
    If Barnier says that, we might as well walk away tomorrow and start preparing to leave with no deal.

    Our attitude to their divorce bill should be that we will discuss it only when they tell us what it is for and on what basis it is calculated.
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    It will be interesting to see how this plays out. If May's speech is constructive and perceived as a fair offer by the voters and Barnier dishes it within 15 minutes, the EU and remainers will become unpopular very quickly and we will be entering the walk away mode, with the support of the Nation

    If.
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    HYUFD said:

    This thread title is not really true.

    One would hope not. TSE is predicting that if Theresa May leads the Conservative party into an election on 7 May 2020, the Tories will be out of power for at least one hundred and thirty-six years.

    She's a modern Asquith. Discuss.
    A genuine questions - who would you have as PM - how should Brexit progress
    I'd be happy with any of the following, Hammond, Hunt, Fallon, Clark, or Liddington.

    As for how should Brexit progress? I've said we should have asked for a three to five year transitional deal and slowly decoupled from the EU, Brexit should be a process not an event.
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    Ishmael_Z said:

    It will be interesting to see how this plays out. If May's speech is constructive and perceived as a fair offer by the voters and Barnier dishes it within 15 minutes, the EU and remainers will become unpopular very quickly and we will be entering the walk away mode, with the support of the Nation

    If.
    Agreed - big word 'if' - she has to deliver the speech of her life
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,217
    edited September 2017

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    This thread title is not really true.

    One would hope not. TSE is predicting that if Theresa May leads the Conservative party into an election on 7 May 2020, the Tories will be out of power for at least one hundred and thirty-six years.
    There would have to be a political realignment for that to occur and the Tories would effectively have to cease to exist and be replaced by a new centre right party
    Effectively like the Liberals being replaced by Labour, except for the fact that the Conservatives don't have any right-wing opposition in Parliament. And the Liberals went out of office in October 1922 and came back in May 2010 (88 years), so it's actually 55% worse than that.
    The only way it would happen realistically is if May did a soft Brexit to keep the UK in the single market permanently and paid say 50 billion euros to the EU with only token controls on free movement and Farage came back to lead UKIP, they overtook the Tories at the next general election and eventually merged with them to form a new Conservative Party as happened in Canada when the Reform Party eventually took over the Progressive Conservative Party and the new party won the 2006 general election in .

    May would then be the Tories Kim Campbell, who was the last Progressive Conservative PM before losing the 1993 general election to the Liberals with the Reform Party overtaking them as the main party of the right
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    HYUFD said:

    This thread title is not really true.

    One would hope not. TSE is predicting that if Theresa May leads the Conservative party into an election on 7 May 2020, the Tories will be out of power for at least one hundred and thirty-six years.

    She's a modern Asquith. Discuss.
    A genuine questions - who would you have as PM - how should Brexit progress
    I'd be happy with any of the following, Hammond, Hunt, Fallon, Clark, or Liddington.

    As for how should Brexit progress? I've said we should have asked for a three to five year transitional deal and slowly decoupled from the EU, Brexit should be a process not an event.
    Not much I disagree with there to be honest
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    HYUFD said:

    This thread title is not really true.

    One would hope not. TSE is predicting that if Theresa May leads the Conservative party into an election on 7 May 2020, the Tories will be out of power for at least one hundred and thirty-six years.

    She's a modern Asquith. Discuss.
    Isn't it Juncker accused of being Squiffy?
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    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    HYUFD said:

    This thread title is not really true.

    One would hope not. TSE is predicting that if Theresa May leads the Conservative party into an election on 7 May 2020, the Tories will be out of power for at least one hundred and thirty-six years.

    She's a modern Asquith. Discuss.
    No, she isn't modern.
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    Brexit should be a process not an event.

    It is a process. One by which Brexiteers get presented with petards with which to hoist themselves.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,217
    edited September 2017
    Latest German poll from GMS

    CDU 37 SPD 22 AfD 10 Die Linke 9 FDP 9 Greens 8

    http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/gms.htm
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,468
    PAW said:

    surbiton - every TDI produces 50 times more NO2 than Volkswagen claimed. It is a deliberate, uncaring, attack on the health of the UK. Made possible only by the pretence of common standards. Why has JLR met standards in the UK, but not any German manufacturer? What should be the penalty for killing thousands on people in the UK every year?

    Whereas you are absolutely correct that a moral rubicon has been crossed over the diesel scandal, it was generally seen that most manufacturers were in fact cheating the figures.

    I don't believe Volkswagen's cunning plan was to succeed where the Luftwaffe failed, they just wanted to sell us more diesel cars because Tony Blair had told us they were more fuel efficient and hence good for the environment.

    So it is not VWs fault it was Tony Blair's fault. Wait...that sounds a bit too PB Tory!
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    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:
    A ludicrous lack of logic there. The British government ignores the courts that have the power to compel it to act, so it must be subject to the rule of other courts based abroad that have absolutely no authority over it instead?

    It's the more amusing of course as Barnier himself ignored an ECJ ruling to lift an illegal French export ban on our beef (and that blatantly political ban, in a further irony, cost us around £60 billion).
    I think logical, although maybe objectionable, depending on your view. If the Home Office doesn't behave itself, and Barnier claims it has a history of misbehaving, individual citizens can go to a court in the confidence that there is a real sanction on the UK government should the Home Office not mend its ways.
    They can do thstvwithnthe UK courts as has been proved time and time again. Your point is simply wrong.
    As long as UK courts implement EU law and are subject to the ECJ. Strictly speaking they are not, but if domestic courts fail to follow ECJ case law, litigants can go to the ECJ and get the judgement there.

    BTW I think jurisdiction is a difficult issue to resolve. I am guessing the EU really are looking for equivalence, but in that case it's up to the UK negotiators to make a proposal and to explain why the guarantees under the alternative system are just as good.
    Not at all. The UK has to be governed by UK law as a basic principle. The idea that UK courts are any less stringent in interpreting or enforcing law than the ECJ is just laughable. Not least because the ECJ has a specific remit to interpret law according to the EU treaties and for the benefit of Ever Closer Union. As such they are far more 'political' than any UK court.

    The ECJ should have no jurisdiction within the UK after Brexit.
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    Look at the headline, you'd London had just lost Lloyds.

    Read the article, the reality: "It is thought that initially fewer than 100 XL posts will be created in Dublin, where the Bermuda-registered company has operated since 1990."

    So a company that is already operating in Dublin, and has done for over 25 years, based in a tax haven, is creating a few dozen more jobs there.

    Good luck to them.
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    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    How do you reconcile a country that about 5o% believe we are doing the right thing by leaving but unable to define what the future will be like with the (about) 50% who think its crazy. I see no way forward
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    How awesome and eclectic am I.

    I've just written a thread for tomorrow morning about WW1 and a thread for Sunday about bikinis.
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    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:
    A ludicrous lack of logic there. The British government ignores the courts that have the power to compel it to act, so it must be subject to the rule of other courts based abroad that have absolutely no authority over it instead?

    It's the more amusing of course as Barnier himself ignored an ECJ ruling to lift an illegal French export ban on our beef (and that blatantly political ban, in a further irony, cost us around £60 billion).
    I think logical, although maybe objectionable, depending on your view. If the Home Office doesn't behave itself, and Barnier claims it has a history of misbehaving, individual citizens can go to a court in the confidence that there is a real sanction on the UK government should the Home Office not mend its ways.
    They can do thstvwithnthe UK courts as has been proved time and time again. Your point is simply wrong.
    As long as UK courts implement EU law and are subject to the ECJ. Strictly speaking they are not, but if domestic courts fail to follow ECJ case law, litigants can go to the ECJ and get the judgement there.

    BTW I think jurisdiction is a difficult issue to resolve. I am guessing the EU really are looking for equivalence, but in that case it's up to the UK negotiators to make a proposal and to explain why the guarantees under the alternative system are just as good.
    Not at all. The UK has to be governed by UK law as a basic principle. The idea that UK courts are any less stringent in interpreting or enforcing law than the ECJ is just laughable. Not least because the ECJ has a specific remit to interpret law according to the EU treaties and for the benefit of Ever Closer Union. As such they are far more 'political' than any UK court.

    The ECJ should have no jurisdiction within the UK after Brexit.
    I can tolerate virtually anything, and am relatively sanguine about payments to the EU, but the ECJ ruling upon citizens living in our own country would be an absolute red line for me.
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    HYUFD said:

    Latest German poll from GMS

    CDU 37 SPD 22 AfD 10 Die Linke 9 FDP 9 Greens 8

    http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/gms.htm

    I'm guessing on a substantial shy AfD factor. They could achieve mid teens.
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    nichomar said:

    How do you reconcile a country that about 5o% believe we are doing the right thing by leaving but unable to define what the future will be like with the (about) 50% who think its crazy. I see no way forward

    I would challenge your numbers. Most of those who voted against Brexit do not think the other half are crazy. It is only the Eurofanatics who have that warped belief.
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    HYUFD said:

    This thread title is not really true.

    One would hope not. TSE is predicting that if Theresa May leads the Conservative party into an election on 7 May 2020, the Tories will be out of power for at least one hundred and thirty-six years.

    She's a modern Asquith. Discuss.
    A genuine questions - who would you have as PM - how should Brexit progress
    I'd be happy with any of the following, Hammond, Hunt, Fallon, Clark, or Liddington.

    As for how should Brexit progress? I've said we should have asked for a three to five year transitional deal and slowly decoupled from the EU, Brexit should be a process not an event.
    I think your views are the same as Osborne's, whether you admit it or not.
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    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    How awesome and eclectic am I.

    I've just written a thread for tomorrow morning about WW1 and a thread for Sunday about bikinis.

    I hope it has a picture of "a tiny winne, yellow, polkadot bikini"!
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    edited September 2017
    FF43 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:
    A ludicrous lack of logic there. The British government ignores the courts that have the power to compel it to act, so it must be subject to the rule of other courts based abroad that have absolutely no authority over it instead?

    It's the more amusing of course as Barnier himself ignored an ECJ ruling to lift an illegal French export ban on our beef (and that blatantly political ban, in a further irony, cost us around £60 billion).
    I think logical, although maybe objectionable, depending on your view. If the Home Office doesn't behave itself, and Barnier claims it has a history of misbehaving, individual citizens can go to a court in the confidence that there is a real sanction on the UK government should the Home Office not mend its ways.
    This has unintended consequences for European Citizens in the UK written all over it. The EU will have created two classes of people before the law in the UK: Europeans who have recourse to a foreign court and everyone else who doesn't. So Europeans will have an extra right but also a burden in that anyone interacting with them legally ( buying a house, renting, business deals, employing them) will have to take that into account - or they certainly will when the first test case becomes publicised. It even extends to anyone who might be able to claim European citizenship even if they never have or want to because the Brit interacting cannot rule out that risk. So your granny might've run the Orange Lodge in East Belfast in 1896 and was not on de Valera's Xmas card list to say the least, and you might never have been anywhere near the Emerald Isle and can't stand the sight of Guinness but Barnier will have stiffed you with a potential issue you can't get rid of even if you want to.

    This is why we have equality before the law in a jurisdiction surely, to avoid awkward situations like this.
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    This is very harsh, but: Andrea Leadsom isn't that old.

    So how come she looks about 65 years old?

    Seriously, she hasn't aged well.
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    This is very harsh, but: Andrea Leadsom isn't that old.

    So how come she looks about 65 years old?

    Seriously, she hasn't aged well.

    She's a mother, it ages you.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,046

    HYUFD said:

    This thread title is not really true.

    One would hope not. TSE is predicting that if Theresa May leads the Conservative party into an election on 7 May 2020, the Tories will be out of power for at least one hundred and thirty-six years.

    She's a modern Asquith. Discuss.
    Not sure Theresa will be seducing a woman 35 years her junior! ...However, her polls could rise.
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    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    This thread title is not really true.

    One would hope not. TSE is predicting that if Theresa May leads the Conservative party into an election on 7 May 2020, the Tories will be out of power for at least one hundred and thirty-six years.

    She's a modern Asquith. Discuss.
    Not sure Theresa will be seducing a woman 35 years her junior! ...However, her polls could rise.
    An idea that doesn't make my poll rise.
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    HYUFD said:

    This thread title is not really true.

    One would hope not. TSE is predicting that if Theresa May leads the Conservative party into an election on 7 May 2020, the Tories will be out of power for at least one hundred and thirty-six years.

    She's a modern Asquith. Discuss.
    A genuine questions - who would you have as PM - how should Brexit progress
    I'd be happy with any of the following, Hammond, Hunt, Fallon, Clark, or Liddington.

    As for how should Brexit progress? I've said we should have asked for a three to five year transitional deal and slowly decoupled from the EU, Brexit should be a process not an event.
    I think your views are the same as Osborne's, whether you admit it or not.
    The number of people who watched George Osborne on ITV's election night show and said to me that listening to what he said was just like listening to me is in the dozens.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,468

    HYUFD said:

    This thread title is not really true.

    One would hope not. TSE is predicting that if Theresa May leads the Conservative party into an election on 7 May 2020, the Tories will be out of power for at least one hundred and thirty-six years.

    She's a modern Asquith. Discuss.
    A genuine questions - who would you have as PM - how should Brexit progress
    Hammond, and Brexit should mirror all the trading benefits we have now without free movement of people we don't want or like to come here from the EU although we should be allowed to travel everywhere in the EU and Schengen and still be able to use our EHIC cards.

    Sadly if that were ever to happen we would be flying to Europe not by Ryanair but by squadron of pigs.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,843

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:
    A ludicrous lack of logic there. The British government ignores the courts that have the power to compel it to act, so it must be subject to the rule of other courts based abroad that have absolutely no authority over it instead?

    It's the more amusing of course as Barnier himself ignored an ECJ ruling to lift an illegal French export ban on our beef (and that blatantly political ban, in a further irony, cost us around £60 billion).
    I think logical, although maybe objectionable, depending on your view. If the Home Office doesn't behave itself, and Barnier claims it has a history of misbehaving, individual citizens can go to a court in the confidence that there is a real sanction on the UK government should the Home Office not mend its ways.
    They can do thstvwithnthe UK courts as has been proved time and time again. Your point is simply wrong.
    As long as UK courts implement EU law and are subject to the ECJ. Strictly speaking they are not, but if domestic courts fail to follow ECJ case law, litigants can go to the ECJ and get the judgement there.

    BTW I think jurisdiction is a difficult issue to resolve. I am guessing the EU really are looking for equivalence, but in that case it's up to the UK negotiators to make a proposal and to explain why the guarantees under the alternative system are just as good.
    Not at all. The UK has to be governed by UK law as a basic principle. The idea that UK courts are any less stringent in interpreting or enforcing law than the ECJ is just laughable. Not least because the ECJ has a specific remit to interpret law according to the EU treaties and for the benefit of Ever Closer Union. As such they are far more 'political' than any UK court.

    The ECJ should have no jurisdiction within the UK after Brexit.
    The issue isn't the courts. The issue is the law that those courts are or are not implementing. The reason why the Home Office had to back down on residence muckups wasn't either because of Home Office willingness to sort things out or because of laws and regulations initiated by the UK government but because the Home Office were acting unlawfully under EU law, which no longer applies after Brexit. That's why citizen rights groups and the EU want recourse to EU law in courts that have jurisdiction for that law.
  • Options
    nichomar said:

    How awesome and eclectic am I.

    I've just written a thread for tomorrow morning about WW1 and a thread for Sunday about bikinis.

    I hope it has a picture of "a tiny winne, yellow, polkadot bikini"!
    I hadn't thought about that.
  • Options
    @Casino_Royale - You may be interested in this video about the EU's work on the ground in Sierra Leone. Agricultural imports are tariff and quota free.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DJ7KKVfmU44
  • Options
    FF43 said:


    The issue isn't the courts. The issue is the law that those courts are or are not implementing. The reason why the Home Office had to back down on residence muckups wasn't either because of Home Office willingness to sort things out or because of laws and regulations initiated by the UK government but because the Home Office were acting unlawfully under EU law, which no longer applies after Brexit. That's why citizen rights groups and the EU want recourse to EU law in courts that have jurisdiction for that law.

    Given that the whole point of the bill currently going through Parliament is to transcribe EU law into UK law there is absolutely no reason to believe that there will be any change. Indeed if your concern is about the law itself then that is something that is being discussed as part of the Brexit negotiations. There is absolutely no need for the enforcement of that law to rest with any court outside the UK.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Look at the headline, you'd London had just lost Lloyds.

    Read the article, the reality: "It is thought that initially fewer than 100 XL posts will be created in Dublin, where the Bermuda-registered company has operated since 1990."

    So a company that is already operating in Dublin, and has done for over 25 years, based in a tax haven, is creating a few dozen more jobs there.

    Good luck to them.
    Bloody immigrants driving up house prices in Germany too:

    https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/14/uk-not-the-only-victim-brexit-hits-frankfurt-housing.html
  • Options
    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    nichomar said:

    How awesome and eclectic am I.

    I've just written a thread for tomorrow morning about WW1 and a thread for Sunday about bikinis.

    I hope it has a picture of "a tiny winne, yellow, polkadot bikini"!
    I hadn't thought about that.
    Bikinis are an interseting issue in more recent spanish history because they were banned on the beaches in spain except for Benidorm. As Franco not only recognied the importance of tourism but also owned a lot of property there he made an exception . Has Benidorm benefited? Yes and although much derided by people its actualy good fun for three or four nights out of season
  • Options
    VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,438
    On real world diesel emissions, VW are by far not the worst culprits - they would appear to be actually better than most.

    See http://equaindex.com for actual data, rather than hearsay.
  • Options

    HYUFD said:

    This thread title is not really true.

    One would hope not. TSE is predicting that if Theresa May leads the Conservative party into an election on 7 May 2020, the Tories will be out of power for at least one hundred and thirty-six years.

    She's a modern Asquith. Discuss.
    A genuine questions - who would you have as PM - how should Brexit progress
    I'd be happy with any of the following, Hammond, Hunt, Fallon, Clark, or Liddington.

    As for how should Brexit progress? I've said we should have asked for a three to five year transitional deal and slowly decoupled from the EU, Brexit should be a process not an event.
    I think your views are the same as Osborne's, whether you admit it or not.
    He certainly shares the same disdain for anyone not part of the monied elite.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,217

    HYUFD said:

    Latest German poll from GMS

    CDU 37 SPD 22 AfD 10 Die Linke 9 FDP 9 Greens 8

    http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/gms.htm

    I'm guessing on a substantial shy AfD factor. They could achieve mid teens.
    If they get to the mid teens that would be the first time since WW2 a party to the right of the CDU/CSU has got over 10%
  • Options
    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    This thread title is not really true.

    One would hope not. TSE is predicting that if Theresa May leads the Conservative party into an election on 7 May 2020, the Tories will be out of power for at least one hundred and thirty-six years.

    There would have to be a political realignment for that to occur and the Tories would effectively have to cease to exist and be replaced by a new centre right party
    Where do I sign?
  • Options

    Look at the headline, you'd London had just lost Lloyds.

    Read the article, the reality: "It is thought that initially fewer than 100 XL posts will be created in Dublin, where the Bermuda-registered company has operated since 1990."

    So a company that is already operating in Dublin, and has done for over 25 years, based in a tax haven, is creating a few dozen more jobs there.

    Good luck to them.
    Bloody immigrants driving up house prices in Germany too:

    https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/14/uk-not-the-only-victim-brexit-hits-frankfurt-housing.html
    Same garbage was printed when the UK didn't join the Euro. When are you off ?
  • Options

    On real world diesel emissions, VW are by far not the worst culprits - they would appear to be actually better than most.

    See http://equaindex.com for actual data, rather than hearsay.

    They are in Greenpeace's sight in a big way at present.
  • Options

    Look at the headline, you'd London had just lost Lloyds.

    Read the article, the reality: "It is thought that initially fewer than 100 XL posts will be created in Dublin, where the Bermuda-registered company has operated since 1990."

    So a company that is already operating in Dublin, and has done for over 25 years, based in a tax haven, is creating a few dozen more jobs there.

    Good luck to them.
    Bloody immigrants driving up house prices in Germany too:

    https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/14/uk-not-the-only-victim-brexit-hits-frankfurt-housing.html
    No-one wants to live or work in Frankfurt.

    No-one. Trust me.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,843
    welshowl said:

    FF43 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:
    A ludicrous lack of logic there. The British government ignores the courts that have the power to compel it to act, so it must be subject to the rule of other courts based abroad that have absolutely no authority over it instead?

    It's the more amusing of course as Barnier himself ignored an ECJ ruling to lift an illegal French export ban on our beef (and that blatantly political ban, in a further irony, cost us around £60 billion).
    I think logical, although maybe objectionable, depending on your view. If the Home Office doesn't behave itself, and Barnier claims it has a history of misbehaving, individual citizens can go to a court in the confidence that there is a real sanction on the UK government should the Home Office not mend its ways.
    This has unintended consequences for European Citizens in the UK written all over it. The EU will have created two classes of people before the law in the UK: Europeans who have recourse to a foreign court and everyone else who doesn't. So Europeans will have an extra right but also a burden in that anyone interacting with them legally ( buying a house, renting, business deals, employing them) will have to take that into account - or they certainly will when the first test case becomes publicised. It even extends to anyone who might be able to claim European citizenship even if they never have or want to because the Brit interacting cannot rule out that risk. So your granny might've run the Orange Lodge in East Belfast in 1896 and was not on de Valera's Xmas card list to say the least, and you might never have been anywhere near the Emerald Isle and can't stand the sight of Guinness but Barnier will have stiffed you with a potential issue you can't get rid of even if you want to.

    This is why we have equality before the law in a jurisdiction surely, to avoid awkward situations like this.
    There are definitely tricky issues around jurisdiction. As I said to Richard, . I suspect the EU really are looking for equivalence, where the UK negotiators make a proposal of an alternative system and explain why the guarantees under that system are just as good. But I don't know that.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Look at the headline, you'd London had just lost Lloyds.

    Read the article, the reality: "It is thought that initially fewer than 100 XL posts will be created in Dublin, where the Bermuda-registered company has operated since 1990."

    So a company that is already operating in Dublin, and has done for over 25 years, based in a tax haven, is creating a few dozen more jobs there.

    Good luck to them.
    Bloody immigrants driving up house prices in Germany too:

    https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/14/uk-not-the-only-victim-brexit-hits-frankfurt-housing.html
    No-one wants to live or work in Frankfurt.

    No-one. Trust me.
    It seems to be booming.

    Fox jr did his school German exchange there and rather liked it.
  • Options
    PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    edited September 2017
    Big_G_NorthWales - German's sales will collapse in the UK. There is nothing they make that you cannot make yourself/
  • Options

    HYUFD said:

    This thread title is not really true.

    One would hope not. TSE is predicting that if Theresa May leads the Conservative party into an election on 7 May 2020, the Tories will be out of power for at least one hundred and thirty-six years.

    She's a modern Asquith. Discuss.
    A genuine questions - who would you have as PM - how should Brexit progress
    I'd be happy with any of the following, Hammond, Hunt, Fallon, Clark, or Liddington.

    As for how should Brexit progress? I've said we should have asked for a three to five year transitional deal and slowly decoupled from the EU, Brexit should be a process not an event.
    I think your views are the same as Osborne's, whether you admit it or not.
    The number of people who watched George Osborne on ITV's election night show and said to me that listening to what he said was just like listening to me is in the dozens.
    Yes. But, I didn't rubbish the exit poll.

    As soon as I heard it, I knew in my heart it was true.

    I didn't fail to notice the smile on Osborne's face as he saw it either.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,217
    edited September 2017
    Latest New Zealand polls from Colmar and Newshub

    Colmar
    National 46%
    Labour 37%
    Greens 8%
    NZ First 5%
    https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/watch-national-takes-huge-lead-in-bombshell-1-news-colmar-brunton-poll

    Newshub
    National 45.8%
    Labour 37.3%
    Greens 7.1%
    NZ First 7.1%
    http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/election/2017/09/newshub-election-poll-either-national-labour-could-take-power.html


  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,843

    Look at the headline, you'd London had just lost Lloyds.

    Read the article, the reality: "It is thought that initially fewer than 100 XL posts will be created in Dublin, where the Bermuda-registered company has operated since 1990."

    So a company that is already operating in Dublin, and has done for over 25 years, based in a tax haven, is creating a few dozen more jobs there.

    Good luck to them.
    Bloody immigrants driving up house prices in Germany too:

    https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/14/uk-not-the-only-victim-brexit-hits-frankfurt-housing.html
    No-one wants to live or work in Frankfurt.

    No-one. Trust me.
    They will find people to work in Frankfurt. Trust me on that.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,812
    edited September 2017

    Look at the headline, you'd London had just lost Lloyds.

    Read the article, the reality: "It is thought that initially fewer than 100 XL posts will be created in Dublin, where the Bermuda-registered company has operated since 1990."

    So a company that is already operating in Dublin, and has done for over 25 years, based in a tax haven, is creating a few dozen more jobs there.

    Good luck to them.
    Bloody immigrants driving up house prices in Germany too:

    https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/14/uk-not-the-only-victim-brexit-hits-frankfurt-housing.html
    No-one wants to live or work in Frankfurt.

    No-one. Trust me.
    It seems to be booming.

    Fox jr did his school German exchange there and rather liked it.
    I have a friend who's a senior director in Deutsche Bank in London, to which that article refers.

    No-one is moving. And no-one wants to go.

    In his own words: "I'd rather kill myself."

    PS. He voted Remain, and is very pro-EU.
  • Options
    FF43 said:

    Look at the headline, you'd London had just lost Lloyds.

    Read the article, the reality: "It is thought that initially fewer than 100 XL posts will be created in Dublin, where the Bermuda-registered company has operated since 1990."

    So a company that is already operating in Dublin, and has done for over 25 years, based in a tax haven, is creating a few dozen more jobs there.

    Good luck to them.
    Bloody immigrants driving up house prices in Germany too:

    https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/14/uk-not-the-only-victim-brexit-hits-frankfurt-housing.html
    No-one wants to live or work in Frankfurt.

    No-one. Trust me.
    They will find people to work in Frankfurt. Trust me on that.
    Locals, and administrators yes. Backroom staff.

    All the big swinging dicks are staying in London. All of them.

    I have inside information, and you are just wrong.

    Sorry
  • Options
    PAW said:

    Big_G_NorthWales - German's sales will collapse in the UK. There is nothing they make that you cannot make yourself/

    Perhaps like communist sympathisers who used to drive Ladas, the BMW will become the mark of the saboteur.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    How awesome and eclectic am I.

    I've just written a thread for tomorrow morning about WW1 and a thread for Sunday about bikinis.

    Yes but is it an itsy-bitsy-teeny-weeny yellow polka dot bikini?
  • Options

    PAW said:

    Big_G_NorthWales - German's sales will collapse in the UK. There is nothing they make that you cannot make yourself/

    Perhaps like communist sympathisers who used to drive Ladas, the BMW will become the mark of the saboteur.
    Hope not - I have a newish 520D
  • Options

    HYUFD said:

    This thread title is not really true.

    One would hope not. TSE is predicting that if Theresa May leads the Conservative party into an election on 7 May 2020, the Tories will be out of power for at least one hundred and thirty-six years.

    She's a modern Asquith. Discuss.
    A genuine questions - who would you have as PM - how should Brexit progress
    I'd be happy with any of the following, Hammond, Hunt, Fallon, Clark, or Liddington.

    As for how should Brexit progress? I've said we should have asked for a three to five year transitional deal and slowly decoupled from the EU, Brexit should be a process not an event.
    I think your views are the same as Osborne's, whether you admit it or not.
    The number of people who watched George Osborne on ITV's election night show and said to me that listening to what he said was just like listening to me is in the dozens.
    Yes. But, I didn't rubbish the exit poll.

    As soon as I heard it, I knew in my heart it was true.

    I didn't fail to notice the smile on Osborne's face as he saw it either.
    He was hurting in the inside, he still is by the result.

    He loves the Tory party and the country, and he saw his and Dave's decade long hard work undone just like that, he saw hard working colleagues and friends lose their seats because of Mrs May.

    He might not love Brexit in any shape or form, but he knows a Corbyn government will be the worst thing to happen to this country in decades.

    You only need to see Labour's plan today on what price they'll pay to re-nationalise the utilities on how bad they'll be for the country.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    FF43 said:

    Look at the headline, you'd London had just lost Lloyds.

    Read the article, the reality: "It is thought that initially fewer than 100 XL posts will be created in Dublin, where the Bermuda-registered company has operated since 1990."

    So a company that is already operating in Dublin, and has done for over 25 years, based in a tax haven, is creating a few dozen more jobs there.

    Good luck to them.
    Bloody immigrants driving up house prices in Germany too:

    https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/14/uk-not-the-only-victim-brexit-hits-frankfurt-housing.html
    No-one wants to live or work in Frankfurt.

    No-one. Trust me.
    They will find people to work in Frankfurt. Trust me on that.
    Locals, and administrators yes. Backroom staff.

    All the big swinging dicks are staying in London. All of them.

    I have inside information, and you are just wrong.

    Sorry
    House prices rising in Frankfurt and falling in London tells a different story, as does my old flatmate, a city economist.
  • Options

    FF43 said:

    Look at the headline, you'd London had just lost Lloyds.

    Read the article, the reality: "It is thought that initially fewer than 100 XL posts will be created in Dublin, where the Bermuda-registered company has operated since 1990."

    So a company that is already operating in Dublin, and has done for over 25 years, based in a tax haven, is creating a few dozen more jobs there.

    Good luck to them.
    Bloody immigrants driving up house prices in Germany too:

    https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/14/uk-not-the-only-victim-brexit-hits-frankfurt-housing.html
    No-one wants to live or work in Frankfurt.

    No-one. Trust me.
    They will find people to work in Frankfurt. Trust me on that.
    Locals, and administrators yes. Backroom staff.

    All the big swinging dicks are staying in London. All of them.

    I have inside information, and you are just wrong.

    Sorry
    House prices rising in Frankfurt and falling in London tells a different story, as does my old flatmate, a city economist.
    According to today's report they have a lot more immigrants to house
  • Options

    FF43 said:

    Look at the headline, you'd London had just lost Lloyds.

    Read the article, the reality: "It is thought that initially fewer than 100 XL posts will be created in Dublin, where the Bermuda-registered company has operated since 1990."

    So a company that is already operating in Dublin, and has done for over 25 years, based in a tax haven, is creating a few dozen more jobs there.

    Good luck to them.
    Bloody immigrants driving up house prices in Germany too:

    https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/14/uk-not-the-only-victim-brexit-hits-frankfurt-housing.html
    No-one wants to live or work in Frankfurt.

    No-one. Trust me.
    They will find people to work in Frankfurt. Trust me on that.
    Locals, and administrators yes. Backroom staff.

    All the big swinging dicks are staying in London. All of them.

    I have inside information, and you are just wrong.

    Sorry
    Indeed.

    Even before Brexit tons of jobs were being shed from the back office in London.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,843

    FF43 said:

    Look at the headline, you'd London had just lost Lloyds.

    Read the article, the reality: "It is thought that initially fewer than 100 XL posts will be created in Dublin, where the Bermuda-registered company has operated since 1990."

    So a company that is already operating in Dublin, and has done for over 25 years, based in a tax haven, is creating a few dozen more jobs there.

    Good luck to them.
    Bloody immigrants driving up house prices in Germany too:

    https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/14/uk-not-the-only-victim-brexit-hits-frankfurt-housing.html
    No-one wants to live or work in Frankfurt.

    No-one. Trust me.
    They will find people to work in Frankfurt. Trust me on that.
    Locals, and administrators yes. Backroom staff.

    All the big swinging dicks are staying in London. All of them.

    I have inside information, and you are just wrong.

    Sorry
    People may not move but if the jobs move they will find people to fill them. That applies to any industry.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,468
    edited September 2017
    PAW said:

    Big_G_NorthWales - German's sales will collapse in the UK. There is nothing they make that you cannot make yourself/

    You may be right! My father was all set to buy an Audi 80C in the mid-seventies but a price increase from a significant devauation of Sterling against the Mark rendered it too expensive for his pocket so an Austin Allegro 1750HL arrived instead. Like you say, 'There is nothing they make that you cannot make yourself'.
  • Options
    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    FF43 said:

    welshowl said:

    FF43 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:
    A ludicrous lack of logic there. The British government ignores the courts that have the power to compel it to act, so it must be subject to the rule of other courts based abroad that have absolutely no authority over it instead?

    It's the more amusing of course as Barnier himself ignored an ECJ ruling to lift an illegal French export ban on our beef (and that blatantly political ban, in a further irony, cost us around £60 billion).
    I think logical, although maybe objectionable, depending on your view. If the Home Office doesn't behave itself, and Barnier claims it has a history of misbehaving, individual citizens can go to a court in the confidence that there is a real sanction on the UK government should the Home Office not mend its ways.
    This has unintended consequences for European Citizens in the UK written all over it. The EU will have created two classes of people before the law in the UK: Europeans who have recourse to a foreign court and everyone else who doesn't. So Europeans will have an extra right but also a burden in that anyone interacting with them legally ( buying a house, renting, business deals, employing them) will have to take that into account - or they certainly will when the first test case becomes publicised. It even extends to anyone who might be able to claim European citizenship even if they never have or want to because the Brit interacting cannot rule out that risk. So your granny might've run the Orange Lodge in East Belfast in 1896 and was not on de Valera's Xmas card list to say the least, and you might never have been anywhere near the Emerald Isle and can't stand the sight of Guinness but Barnier will have stiffed you with a potential issue you can't get rid of even if you want to.

    This is why we have equality before the law in a jurisdiction surely, to avoid awkward situations like this.
    There are definitely tricky issues around jurisdiction. As I said to Richard, . I suspect the EU really are looking for equivalence, where the UK negotiators make a proposal of an alternative system and explain why the guarantees under that system are just as good. But I don't know that.
    We need a third party neutral court.
  • Options
    welshowl said:

    FF43 said:

    welshowl said:

    FF43 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:
    A ludicrous lack of logic there. The British government ignores the courts that have the power to compel it to act, so it must be subject to the rule of other courts based abroad that have absolutely no authority over it instead?

    It's the more amusing of course as Barnier himself ignored an ECJ ruling to lift an illegal French export ban on our beef (and that blatantly political ban, in a further irony, cost us around £60 billion).
    I think logical, although maybe objectionable, depending on your view. If the Home Office doesn't behave itself, and Barnier claims it has a history of misbehaving, individual citizens can go to a court in the confidence that there is a real sanction on the UK government should the Home Office not mend its ways.
    This has unintended consequences for European Citizens in the UK written all over it. The EU will have created two classes of people before the law in the UK: Europeans who have recourse to a foreign court and everyone else who doesn't. So Europeans will have an extra right but also a burden in that anyone interacting with them legally ( buying a house, renting, business deals, employing them) will have to take that into account - or they certainly will when the first test case becomes publicised. It even extends to anyone who might be able to claim European citizenship even if they never have or want to because the Brit interacting cannot rule out that risk. So your granny might've run the Orange Lodge in East Belfast in 1896 and was not on de Valera's Xmas card list to say the least, and you might never have been anywhere near the Emerald Isle and can't stand the sight of Guinness but Barnier will have stiffed you with a potential issue you can't get rid of even if you want to.

    This is why we have equality before the law in a jurisdiction surely, to avoid awkward situations like this.
    There are definitely tricky issues around jurisdiction. As I said to Richard, . I suspect the EU really are looking for equivalence, where the UK negotiators make a proposal of an alternative system and explain why the guarantees under that system are just as good. But I don't know that.
    We need a third party neutral court.
    Not a court which engages in judicial activism.
  • Options

    FF43 said:

    Look at the headline, you'd London had just lost Lloyds.

    Read the article, the reality: "It is thought that initially fewer than 100 XL posts will be created in Dublin, where the Bermuda-registered company has operated since 1990."

    So a company that is already operating in Dublin, and has done for over 25 years, based in a tax haven, is creating a few dozen more jobs there.

    Good luck to them.
    Bloody immigrants driving up house prices in Germany too:

    https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/14/uk-not-the-only-victim-brexit-hits-frankfurt-housing.html
    No-one wants to live or work in Frankfurt.

    No-one. Trust me.
    They will find people to work in Frankfurt. Trust me on that.
    Locals, and administrators yes. Backroom staff.

    All the big swinging dicks are staying in London. All of them.

    I have inside information, and you are just wrong.

    Sorry
    House prices rising in Frankfurt and falling in London tells a different story, as does my old flatmate, a city economist.
    That's your confirmation bias.
  • Options
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Look at the headline, you'd London had just lost Lloyds.

    Read the article, the reality: "It is thought that initially fewer than 100 XL posts will be created in Dublin, where the Bermuda-registered company has operated since 1990."

    So a company that is already operating in Dublin, and has done for over 25 years, based in a tax haven, is creating a few dozen more jobs there.

    Good luck to them.
    Bloody immigrants driving up house prices in Germany too:

    https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/14/uk-not-the-only-victim-brexit-hits-frankfurt-housing.html
    No-one wants to live or work in Frankfurt.

    No-one. Trust me.
    They will find people to work in Frankfurt. Trust me on that.
    Locals, and administrators yes. Backroom staff.

    All the big swinging dicks are staying in London. All of them.

    I have inside information, and you are just wrong.

    Sorry
    People may not move but if the jobs move they will find people to fill them. That applies to any industry.
    Only a handful to the extent that is absolutely essential to provide eurobond services that cannot be fully provided by London in the absence of the financial passport, and London will continue to grow and develop new markets still faster.

    The idea that Frankfurt is going to become the new "City" of the EU is fantasy.
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    HYUFD said:

    This thread title is not really true.

    One would hope not. TSE is predicting that if Theresa May leads the Conservative party into an election on 7 May 2020, the Tories will be out of power for at least one hundred and thirty-six years.

    She's a modern Asquith. Discuss.
    A genuine questions - who would you have as PM - how should Brexit progress
    I'd be happy with any of the following, Hammond, Hunt, Fallon, Clark, or Liddington.

    As for how should Brexit progress? I've said we should have asked for a three to five year transitional deal and slowly decoupled from the EU, Brexit should be a process not an event.
    I think your views are the same as Osborne's, whether you admit it or not.
    The number of people who watched George Osborne on ITV's election night show and said to me that listening to what he said was just like listening to me is in the dozens.
    Yes. But, I didn't rubbish the exit poll.

    As soon as I heard it, I knew in my heart it was true.

    I didn't fail to notice the smile on Osborne's face as he saw it either.
    He was hurting in the inside, he still is by the result.

    He loves the Tory party and the country, and he saw his and Dave's decade long hard work undone just like that, he saw hard working colleagues and friends lose their seats because of Mrs May.

    He might not love Brexit in any shape or form, but he knows a Corbyn government will be the worst thing to happen to this country in decades.

    You only need to see Labour's plan today on what price they'll pay to re-nationalise the utilities on how bad they'll be for the country.
    My reading: he was initially pleased to see May humbled, and himself vindicated, and that rapidly turned to anger.

    He isn't hard to read.
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    PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    Mexicanpete - if we weren't in the EU, the Audi couldn't be sold here - even though we were to have the same NO2 standards as the EU. Why not compare your Audi to a JLR product - which doesn't need to kill people with pollution? Rather than a car 60 years old.
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    eekeek Posts: 25,093

    FF43 said:

    Look at the headline, you'd London had just lost Lloyds.

    Read the article, the reality: "It is thought that initially fewer than 100 XL posts will be created in Dublin, where the Bermuda-registered company has operated since 1990."

    So a company that is already operating in Dublin, and has done for over 25 years, based in a tax haven, is creating a few dozen more jobs there.

    Good luck to them.
    Bloody immigrants driving up house prices in Germany too:

    https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/14/uk-not-the-only-victim-brexit-hits-frankfurt-housing.html
    No-one wants to live or work in Frankfurt.

    No-one. Trust me.
    They will find people to work in Frankfurt. Trust me on that.
    Locals, and administrators yes. Backroom staff.

    All the big swinging dicks are staying in London. All of them.

    I have inside information, and you are just wrong.

    Sorry
    House prices rising in Frankfurt and falling in London tells a different story, as does my old flatmate, a city economist.
    That's your confirmation bias.
    House prices in Munich are rising far faster than Frankfurt...
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    NEW THREAD

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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    MP_SE2 said:

    welshowl said:

    FF43 said:

    welshowl said:

    FF43 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:
    A ludicrous lack of logic there. The British government ignores the courts that have the power to compel it to act, so it must be subject to the rule of other courts based abroad that have absolutely no authority over it instead?

    It's the more amusing of course as Barnier himself ignored an ECJ ruling to lift an illegal French export ban on our beef (and that blatantly political ban, in a further irony, cost us around £60 billion).
    I think logical, although maybe objectionable, depending on your view. If the Home Office doesn't behave itself, and Barnier claims it has a history of misbehaving, individual citizens can go to a court in the confidence that there is a real sanction on the UK government should the Home Office not mend its ways.
    This has unintended consequences for European Citizens in the UK written all over it. The EU will have created two classes of people before the law in the UK: Europeans who have recourse to a foreign court and everyone else who doesn't. So Europeans will have an extra right but also a burden in that anyone interacting with them legally ( buying a house, renting, business deals, employing them) will have to take that into account - or they certainly will when the first test case becomes publicised. It even extends to anyone who might be able to claim European citizenship even if they never have or want to because the Brit interacting cannot rule out that risk. So your granny might've run the Orange Lodge in East Belfast in 1896 and was not on de Valera's Xmas card list to say the least, and you might never have been anywhere near the Emerald Isle and can't stand the sight of Guinness but Barnier will have stiffed you with a potential issue you can't get rid of even if you want to.

    This is why we have equality before the law in a jurisdiction surely, to avoid awkward situations like this.
    There are definitely tricky issues around jurisdiction. As I said to Richard, . I suspect the EU really are looking for equivalence, where the UK negotiators make a proposal of an alternative system and explain why the guarantees under that system are just as good. But I don't know that.
    We need a third party neutral court.
    Not a court which engages in judicial activism.
    Quite.
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    eekeek Posts: 25,093
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Look at the headline, you'd London had just lost Lloyds.

    Read the article, the reality: "It is thought that initially fewer than 100 XL posts will be created in Dublin, where the Bermuda-registered company has operated since 1990."

    So a company that is already operating in Dublin, and has done for over 25 years, based in a tax haven, is creating a few dozen more jobs there.

    Good luck to them.
    Bloody immigrants driving up house prices in Germany too:

    https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/14/uk-not-the-only-victim-brexit-hits-frankfurt-housing.html
    No-one wants to live or work in Frankfurt.

    No-one. Trust me.
    They will find people to work in Frankfurt. Trust me on that.
    Locals, and administrators yes. Backroom staff.

    All the big swinging dicks are staying in London. All of them.

    I have inside information, and you are just wrong.

    Sorry
    People may not move but if the jobs move they will find people to fill them. That applies to any industry.
    I suspect not many jobs are moving. The reality in the city as is true elsewhere technology is swallowing them and removing them...
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    PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    I used to work in Munich, dull and full of brothels.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,843
    welshowl said:

    FF43 said:

    welshowl said:

    FF43 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:
    A ludicrous lack of logic there. The British government ignores the courts that have the power to compel it to act, so it must be subject to the rule of other courts based abroad that have absolutely no authority over it instead?

    It's the more amusing of course as Barnier himself ignored an ECJ ruling to lift an illegal French export ban on our beef (and that blatantly political ban, in a further irony, cost us around £60 billion).
    I think logical, although maybe objectionable, depending on your view. If the Home Office doesn't behave itself, and Barnier claims it has a history of misbehaving, individual citizens can go to a court in the confidence that there is a real sanction on the UK government should the Home Office not mend its ways.
    This has unintended consequences for European Citizens in the UK written all over it. The EU will have created two classes of people before the law in the UK: Europeans who have recourse to a foreign court and everyone else who doesn't. So Europeans will have an extra right but also a burden in that anyone interacting with them legally ( buying a house, renting, business deals, employing them) will have to take that into account - or they certainly will when the first test case becomes publicised. It even extends to anyone who might be able to claim European citizenship even if they never have or want to because the Brit interacting cannot rule out that risk. So your granny might've run the Orange Lodge in East Belfast in 1896 and was not on de Valera's Xmas card list to say the least, and you might never have been anywhere near the Emerald Isle and can't stand the sight of Guinness but Barnier will have stiffed you with a potential issue you can't get rid of even if you want to.

    This is why we have equality before the law in a jurisdiction surely, to avoid awkward situations like this.
    There are definitely tricky issues around jurisdiction. As I said to Richard, . I suspect the EU really are looking for equivalence, where the UK negotiators make a proposal of an alternative system and explain why the guarantees under that system are just as good. But I don't know that.
    We need a third party neutral court.
    My personal view is that could work for citizen rights, which are likely to be static but not for
    integrated trade. The same case law needs to be applied in both the UK and the EU get a level playing field and as the EU won't change their domestic arrangements that has to be the ECJ or ECJ mirror.
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    eekeek Posts: 25,093
    PAW said:

    I used to work in Munich, dull and full of brothels.

    I was hoping to go there next week but instead have to go to their other location - that is far more of a faff to get to and from....
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,618
    edited September 2017

    PAW said:

    Big_G_NorthWales - German's sales will collapse in the UK. There is nothing they make that you cannot make yourself/

    Perhaps like communist sympathisers who used to drive Ladas, the BMW will become the mark of the saboteur.
    image
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    @David_Evershed Absolutely spot on. Another part of the disaster is the way ' Divorce Bill ' has been allowed to frame the debate. First setting the level of maintenance payments after a divorce is a better analogy. Some of these liabilities will last for years and declining sums will be paid for years. Second unlike any divorce I know we're attempting to negotiate a time limited period of cohabitation and sex after the divorce while continuing to share the Netflix account. It's more akin to giving up cigarettes by slowly cutting down then switching to vaping rather than ' Divorce '. Third even Hard Brexiteers are proposing we remain in some EU bodies in perpetuity. Those mean continued payments in perpetuity. Those certainly aren't a Divorce Bill.

    So May is offering €20bn for transition and Barnier is immediately going to say " That's great. We can discuss that in Stage 2 but as you know to get to Stage 2 we need to settle the divorce bill... "
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    @David_Evershed Absolutely spot on. Another part of the disaster is the way ' Divorce Bill ' has been allowed to frame the debate. First setting the level of maintenance payments after a divorce is a better analogy. Some of these liabilities will last for years and declining sums will be paid for years. Second unlike any divorce I know we're attempting to negotiate a time limited period of cohabitation and sex after the divorce while continuing to share the Netflix account. It's more akin to giving up cigarettes by slowly cutting down then switching to vaping rather than ' Divorce '. Third even Hard Brexiteers are proposing we remain in some EU bodies in perpetuity. Those mean continued payments in perpetuity. Those certainly aren't a Divorce Bill.

    So May is offering €20bn for transition and Barnier is immediately going to say " That's great. We can discuss that in Stage 2 but as you know to get to Stage 2 we need to settle the divorce bill... "

    UK = responsible, hard-working spouse wot pays all the bills

    EU = profligate, spendthrift gold-digger
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    FF43 said:

    Look at the headline, you'd London had just lost Lloyds.

    Read the article, the reality: "It is thought that initially fewer than 100 XL posts will be created in Dublin, where the Bermuda-registered company has operated since 1990."

    So a company that is already operating in Dublin, and has done for over 25 years, based in a tax haven, is creating a few dozen more jobs there.

    Good luck to them.
    Bloody immigrants driving up house prices in Germany too:

    https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/14/uk-not-the-only-victim-brexit-hits-frankfurt-housing.html
    No-one wants to live or work in Frankfurt.

    No-one. Trust me.
    They will find people to work in Frankfurt. Trust me on that.
    Locals, and administrators yes. Backroom staff.

    All the big swinging dicks are staying in London. All of them.

    I have inside information, and you are just wrong.

    Sorry
    My former employer tried to make me move to Frankfurt. I quit.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,912
    edited September 2017
    On topic turnout at 5pm was LT 10% Not what Lab were hoping for in Homebrook
This discussion has been closed.