They will notice when airlines have trouble booking slots after March 2019 and we lose access via the EU OpenSkies agreement.
So will the Cypriot, Maltese, Greek, Italian, Czech, French, Spanish and Portugese tourist businesses, who would suddenly find that demand for their services had collapsed.
Oddly, this obvious point doesn't seem to have been noticed by the Cypriot, Maltese, Greek, Italian, Czech, French, Spanish and Portugese governments. It is striking that only Ireland seems fully aware of the risks the EU27 countries are running with their negotiation (or non-negotiation) strategy.
As a point it seems to have been noticed by very few.
I've been away from this place for a few weeks, pop back in and the same people are squabbling over the same boring things. I'd be interested to see the figures re the number of regular contributors, I'm sure they must have dwindled.
Boring it may be (Boris boring? Shome mistake..) but it is at the very heart of the nation's future so understandable for a politics-orientated website, surely?
As to contributors, well I think they come and go with some degree of regularity.
I just find it strange that adults wish to bicker for months on end about the same tedious things without anybody ever changing their mind or offering an alternative view. Mr Smithson must be concerned at the falling number of hits and new members.
What would you prefer to discuss instead Freetochoose?
I've been away from this place for a few weeks, pop back in and the same people are squabbling over the same boring things. I'd be interested to see the figures re the number of regular contributors, I'm sure they must have dwindled.
Boring it may be (Boris boring? Shome mistake..) but it is at the very heart of the nation's future so understandable for a politics-orientated website, surely?
As to contributors, well I think they come and go with some degree of regularity.
I just find it strange that adults wish to bicker for months on end about the same tedious things without anybody ever changing their mind or offering an alternative view. Mr Smithson must be concerned at the falling number of hits and new members.
We are in a fallow period betting-wise, despite BoJo's manoeuvres. I don't know about you but I pop in to PB de temps en temps for a bit of light-hearted relief and use it as a stream of consciousness outlet for whatever thoughts are meandering around my head at the time.
But Brexit, that all said, is deadly serious. It will define our nation for the next generation(s). Having had the feelgood fuck you factor of voting Leave, people now understandably want to walk away from the details. But it is in that detail that, well, you know who dwells there.
So each discussion on a seemingly boring, unimportant, arcane bit of Brexitania is actually critical and vitally important to the nation's well-being.
Or at least that's why I'm still here.
It's noteworthy that all the Leavers who thought that Brexit would be awfully fun have decided that it isn't.
I used to find it funny seeing you getting worked up into a lather on here, now its just predictably dull.
I notice you're still calling us all xenophobes, that's reassuring, I wouldn't want you to change tack onto something worthwhile.
After all, it was the likes of you that won it for us.
So, basically, Boris is talking utter shite. Deceitful, intellectual lazy, unpatriotic shite.
Nothing has changed.
Honest Brexiters know there will be an economic hit from Brexit. Most EFTA Brexiters are now terrified at the likelihood of a drop out into WTO.
Honest Remainers know that there is some sacrifice of sovereignty within the EU, and that the Commission itself is inherently integrationist.
If we are serious as a country we ought to be discussing how to manage the inevitable economic fallout. There is now plenty of evidence that Brexit uncertainty has dampened the economy and that carmakers and banks are making contingency plans to deliver future growth inside the EU rather than the UK.
The Brexit process so far has seen political considerations trump economic self-interest on both the UK and EU sides. That may change, but at the moment there is absolutely no sign of it.
If the EU put economic interests first it would not have dealt with the Greek crisis in the way it did.
The Greek crisis hardly affected any single country other than Greece, and perhaps Cyprus. This will very badly hit a string of smaller EU countries - you know, those ones that have a vote. It will also hit Germany and the other export-led Northern European countries, albeit to a manageable extent. Overall, yes, it is probably true that the hit to the EU27 in aggregate wouldn't be too bad, but that isn't much consolation if you are the Maltese or Irish government.
Indeed, the hit to the EU-27 would be significant but much less bad than the hit to the UK. The EU does not, of course, officially want to punish the UK, but ...........
They will notice when airlines have trouble booking slots after March 2019 and we lose access via the EU OpenSkies agreement.
So will the Cypriot, Maltese, Greek, Italian, Czech, French, Spanish and Portugese tourist businesses, who would suddenly find that demand for their services had collapsed.
Oddly, this obvious point doesn't seem to have been noticed by the Cypriot, Maltese, Greek, Italian, Czech, French, Spanish and Portugese governments. It is striking that only Ireland seems fully aware of the risks the EU27 countries are running with their negotiation (or non-negotiation) strategy.
An odd comment from someone normally so sensible. Losing a few or even a lot of British tourists isn't exactly going to cause the tourist industry of Southern Europe to "collapse". It's even more delusional to imagine that white van man is going to exchange his 2 weeks on the Costa del Sol for a fortnight in Cleethorpes because of Brexit.
They will notice when airlines have trouble booking slots after March 2019 and we lose access via the EU OpenSkies agreement.
So will the Cypriot, Maltese, Greek, Italian, Czech, French, Spanish and Portugese tourist businesses, who would suddenly find that demand for their services had collapsed.
Oddly, this obvious point doesn't seem to have been noticed by the Cypriot, Maltese, Greek, Italian, Czech, French, Spanish and Portugese governments. It is striking that only Ireland seems fully aware of the risks the EU27 countries are running with their negotiation (or non-negotiation) strategy.
An odd comment from someone normally so sensible. Losing a few or even a lot of British tourists isn't exactly going to cause the tourist industry of Southern Europe to "collapse". It's even more delusional to imagine that white van man is going to exchange his 2 weeks on the Costa del Sol for a fortnight in Cleethorpes because of Brexit.
It's also not comparing like with like.
Brits are not going to be stopped from travelling as tourists to the Med. Any hit to Med travel would be from a falling pound.
But we are going to have obstacles put in place to hamper exports, while industries relying on Europe-wide supply chains are going to be buggered.
The Brexit process so far has seen political considerations trump economic self-interest on both the UK and EU sides. That may change, but at the moment there is absolutely no sign of it.
If the EU put economic interests first it would not have dealt with the Greek crisis in the way it did.
The Greek crisis hardly affected any single country other than Greece, and perhaps Cyprus. This will very badly hit a string of smaller EU countries - you know, those ones that have a vote. It will also hit Germany and the other export-led Northern European countries, albeit to a manageable extent. Overall, yes, it is probably true that the hit to the EU27 in aggregate wouldn't be too bad, but that isn't much consolation if you are the Maltese or Irish government.
With the possible exception of Ireland, the hit to the other EU countries will be relatively mild, the hit to ourselves will in all likelihood be many times more severe. By a huge margin, EU electorates oppose giving any concessions to Britain, see the recent polling in Germany (arguably one of the more pragmatic and pro-British EU states).
An odd comment from someone normally so sensible. Losing a few or even a lot of British tourists isn't exactly going to cause the tourist industry of Southern Europe to "collapse". It's even more delusional to imagine that white van man is going to exchange his 2 weeks on the Costa del Sol for a fortnight in Cleethorpes because of Brexit.
I suggest you look at the proportion of the tourist trade in those countries, especially Malta and Cyprus, which is accounted for by UK tourists.
As for your second point, I was replying to a post about disruption to air travel. If white van man can't get to the Costa del Sol, then there are going to be a lot of bankrupt hotels on the Costa del Sol, are there not?
More generally, any hit to the UK economy would cause a wider hit to the EU27 economies, it's not just exports of goods which would be affected.
Of course, it remains the case that a chaotic Brexit would be much worse for the UK than for the EU27 countries (except probably Ireland). But that is not going to be much consolation to those of our EU friends who are most badly hit by it.
By a huge margin, EU electorates oppose giving any concessions to Britain, see the recent polling in Germany (arguably one of the more pragmatic and pro-British EU states).
They will notice when airlines have trouble booking slots after March 2019 and we lose access via the EU OpenSkies agreement.
So will the Cypriot, Maltese, Greek, Italian, Czech, French, Spanish and Portugese tourist businesses, who would suddenly find that demand for their services had collapsed.
Oddly, this obvious point doesn't seem to have been noticed by the Cypriot, Maltese, Greek, Italian, Czech, French, Spanish and Portugese governments. It is striking that only Ireland seems fully aware of the risks the EU27 countries are running with their negotiation (or non-negotiation) strategy.
An odd comment from someone normally so sensible. Losing a few or even a lot of British tourists isn't exactly going to cause the tourist industry of Southern Europe to "collapse". It's even more delusional to imagine that white van man is going to exchange his 2 weeks on the Costa del Sol for a fortnight in Cleethorpes because of Brexit.
If there are difficulties getting slots then there may be fewer seats to get White Van Man to the Med. Supply and Demand. Scarcer resource = price increase.
Holidays will still be on offer, but with a price hike.
By a huge margin, EU electorates oppose giving any concessions to Britain, see the recent polling in Germany (arguably one of the more pragmatic and pro-British EU states).
Yes, they are as deluded as the Brexiteers.
Deluded to think that the UK can't be strong-armed into line? The experience of Suez says otherwise.
By a huge margin, EU electorates oppose giving any concessions to Britain, see the recent polling in Germany (arguably one of the more pragmatic and pro-British EU states).
Yes, they are as deluded as the Brexiteers.
Deluded to think that the UK can't be strong-armed into line? The experience of Suez says otherwise.
Yes, deluded to think that, and also deluded to think that they won't themselves be adversely affected.
The first point is part of a long-standing failure to understand the UK.
Of course, for the avoidance of doubt, this is bad news for us, as well as for them.
The problem is that Leave is, and always was, hopelessly divided. On one extreme was the 'Norway Option'/EU-membership-in-all-but-name faction; on the other was turning Britain into a kind of North Korea with bowler hats. And there were a zillion other interpretations in between. We now have the likes of Boris, jostling for position, trying to pick the best faction to further his own career. Then Theresa has to play catch up. The result is paralysis.
They will notice when airlines have trouble booking slots after March 2019 and we lose access via the EU OpenSkies agreement.
So will the Cypriot, Maltese, Greek, Italian, Czech, French, Spanish and Portugese tourist businesses, who would suddenly find that demand for their services had collapsed.
Oddly, this obvious point doesn't seem to have been noticed by the Cypriot, Maltese, Greek, Italian, Czech, French, Spanish and Portugese governments. It is striking that only Ireland seems fully aware of the risks the EU27 countries are running with their negotiation (or non-negotiation) strategy.
An odd comment from someone normally so sensible. Losing a few or even a lot of British tourists isn't exactly going to cause the tourist industry of Southern Europe to "collapse". It's even more delusional to imagine that white van man is going to exchange his 2 weeks on the Costa del Sol for a fortnight in Cleethorpes because of Brexit.
Well, if there are "no flights" (as some suggest) then he won't have a great deal of choice in the matter.
The problem is that Leave is, and always was, hopelessly divided. On one extreme was the 'Norway Option'/EU-membership-in-all-but-name faction; on the other was turning Britain into a kind of North Korea with bowler hats. And there were a zillion other interpretations in between. We now have the likes of Boris, jostling for position, trying to pick the best faction to further his own career. Then Theresa has to play catch up. The result is paralysis.
Oddjob was North Korean and already had a bowler hat.
Mr. Choose, to be fair, the F1 tipsters all had a good or great race. Mr. Sandpit had a 20something winning tip, Mr. M a 7 winner. Alas, I only had a 4 (and one loss) but came damned close to a 67.
Yesterday was awesome, thanks mainly to your early comment on a rainy day which got me looking around for value bets. Thanks for that!
The Lewis bet was at 23, so turned a £105ish profit on a fiver I was also on your 4, a lay of Vettel at 1.7, and under 14.5 finishers at 2.2.
Ended the day nearly £150 up, which goes half way towards my ticket for the season finale in Abu Dhabi.
My only loser was a quid on Alonso at 400, and he was just behind Lewis when he got somewhat unceremoniously punted off by the out of control chain reaction of undriveable cars at the first corner. Still value though.
By a huge margin, EU electorates oppose giving any concessions to Britain, see the recent polling in Germany (arguably one of the more pragmatic and pro-British EU states).
Yes, they are as deluded as the Brexiteers.
Deluded to think that the UK can't be strong-armed into line? The experience of Suez says otherwise.
Yes, deluded to think that, and also deluded to think that they won't themselves be adversely affected.
The first point is part of a long-standing failure to understand the UK.
Of course, for the avoidance of doubt, this is bad news for us, as well as for them.
If the EU plays hardball all the way to March 2019, how do you see things playing out within the UK?
The problem is that Leave is, and always was, hopelessly divided. On one extreme was the 'Norway Option'/EU-membership-in-all-but-name faction; on the other was turning Britain into a kind of North Korea with bowler hats. And there were a zillion other interpretations in between. We now have the likes of Boris, jostling for position, trying to pick the best faction to further his own career. Then Theresa has to play catch up. The result is paralysis.
As has been said on here before, if only Cameron had specified what flavour of Leave people were voting for before the ref, we'd be in a much better position.
I suspect Leave would still have won - maybe more handsomely if Leave meant a soft Brexit. At least this Tory civil war would have been avoided.
They will notice when airlines have trouble booking slots after March 2019 and we lose access via the EU OpenSkies agreement.
So will the Cypriot, Maltese, Greek, Italian, Czech, French, Spanish and Portugese tourist businesses, who would suddenly find that demand for their services had collapsed.
Oddly, this obvious point doesn't seem to have been noticed by the Cypriot, Maltese, Greek, Italian, Czech, French, Spanish and Portugese governments. It is striking that only Ireland seems fully aware of the risks the EU27 countries are running with their negotiation (or non-negotiation) strategy.
An odd comment from someone normally so sensible. Losing a few or even a lot of British tourists isn't exactly going to cause the tourist industry of Southern Europe to "collapse". It's even more delusional to imagine that white van man is going to exchange his 2 weeks on the Costa del Sol for a fortnight in Cleethorpes because of Brexit.
If there are difficulties getting slots then there may be fewer seats to get White Van Man to the Med. Supply and Demand. Scarcer resource = price increase.
Holidays will still be on offer, but with a price hike.
Yes, which means the British will be the ones taking most of the hit. People will continue to take their European holidays even if prices rise significantly.
They will notice when airlines have trouble booking slots after March 2019 and we lose access via the EU OpenSkies agreement.
So will the Cypriot, Maltese, Greek, Italian, Czech, French, Spanish and Portugese tourist businesses, who would suddenly find that demand for their services had collapsed.
Oddly, this obvious point doesn't seem to have been noticed by the Cypriot, Maltese, Greek, Italian, Czech, French, Spanish and Portugese governments. It is striking that only Ireland seems fully aware of the risks the EU27 countries are running with their negotiation (or non-negotiation) strategy.
An odd comment from someone normally so sensible. Losing a few or even a lot of British tourists isn't exactly going to cause the tourist industry of Southern Europe to "collapse". It's even more delusional to imagine that white van man is going to exchange his 2 weeks on the Costa del Sol for a fortnight in Cleethorpes because of Brexit.
Well, if there are "no flights" (as some suggest) then he won't have a great deal of choice in the matter.
They will notice when airlines have trouble booking slots after March 2019 and we lose access via the EU OpenSkies agreement.
So will the Cypriot, Maltese, Greek, Italian, Czech, French, Spanish and Portugese tourist businesses, who would suddenly find that demand for their services had collapsed.
Oddly, this obvious point doesn't seem to have been noticed by the Cypriot, Maltese, Greek, Italian, Czech, French, Spanish and Portugese governments. It is striking that only Ireland seems fully aware of the risks the EU27 countries are running with their negotiation (or non-negotiation) strategy.
An odd comment from someone normally so sensible. Losing a few or even a lot of British tourists isn't exactly going to cause the tourist industry of Southern Europe to "collapse". It's even more delusional to imagine that white van man is going to exchange his 2 weeks on the Costa del Sol for a fortnight in Cleethorpes because of Brexit.
Well, if there are "no flights" (as some suggest) then he won't have a great deal of choice in the matter.
We still have plenty of ferries and the channel tunnel. But of course there will be flights. Such a situation would hit the UK so hard the government would be forced to conclude an agreement on flights at almost any cost.
Mr. Eagles, what Lammy was saying appears rather more sensible than the reporting, which is what I was referring to (I can see why you'd confuse that, though, and I could've been clearer). It was a pleasant surprise to hear Lammy refer to things like people from minorities taking longer to offer guilty pleas and that leading to longer sentences, rather than the sentences being down to racism.
However, the reporting of such matters has been lamentable (possibly due to the confluence of journalistic incompetence on numbers [see also debt/deficit], and politically correct bullshit).
I can't imagine where the EU get the idea that this is an internal Conservative civil war from.
David Herdson was right, the Tories should have gone into opposition on June 9th.
The Tory party needs to choose. Will it go with its head? Or will it embark on an ideological, ego-fuelled flight of fantasy?
Hard to call.
The Tory party is still haunted by the ghost of UKIP and Farage. They'll be terrified of doing anything that can be painted as 'defying the will of the people' - i.e. not ultra-hard Brexit. Boris knows this and that is why his current behaviour is so astute. He's portraying himself as the only true patriot in town.
If the EU plays hardball all the way to March 2019, how do you see things playing out within the UK?
There would be economic, market and political chaos, the outcome of which is wholly unpredictable.
Part of me has to admire the way May sits in the driver's seat, not touching the wheel or pedals, heading at 100 miles an hour in no direction, waiting to see which part of the car's body breaks free and flies off first so she can "course correct".
Truth be told, it is perfectly possible to continue at high speed even without wheels. For a period.
By a huge margin, EU electorates oppose giving any concessions to Britain, see the recent polling in Germany (arguably one of the more pragmatic and pro-British EU states).
Yes, they are as deluded as the Brexiteers.
Deluded to think that the UK can't be strong-armed into line? The experience of Suez says otherwise.
Yes, deluded to think that, and also deluded to think that they won't themselves be adversely affected.
The first point is part of a long-standing failure to understand the UK.
Of course, for the avoidance of doubt, this is bad news for us, as well as for them.
If the EU plays hardball all the way to March 2019, how do you see things playing out within the UK?
Likely 'get lost' attitude to the EU and very much increased support to just do whatever is required to leave
If the EU plays hardball all the way to March 2019, how do you see things playing out within the UK?
There would be economic, market and political chaos, the outcome of which is wholly unpredictable.
But you feel confident to predict that the UK won't capitulate in one form or another?
I'm not sure what you mean by 'capitulate'. We're currently not being offered anything at all. As the clock ticks down, it will soon become administratively impossible for the EU to offer us anything, other perhaps than temporary agreements to avoid the worst chaos such as flights being grounded (and even that needs to be done at least 15 months in advance, so that airlines can plan their schedules). If the EU persist in not offering us anything, there's nothing to capitulate to, we simply crash out and in that scenario obviously we don't pay them a bean - why would we?
"If the EU plays hardball all the way to March 2019."
They may well do. They are European Toffs and they're not used to not getting their own way, so they react like a spoilt child would.
I expect our British equivalent (Cameron) told them not to worry about the referendum (he was rather good at politics) because it was in the bag. No need to toss the UK any crumbs.
They will notice when airlines have trouble booking slots after March 2019 and we lose access via the EU OpenSkies agreement.
So will the Cypriot, Maltese, Greek, Italian, Czech, French, Spanish and Portugese tourist businesses, who would suddenly find that demand for their services had collapsed.
Oddly, this obvious point doesn't seem to have been noticed by the Cypriot, Maltese, Greek, Italian, Czech, French, Spanish and Portugese governments. It is striking that only Ireland seems fully aware of the risks the EU27 countries are running with their negotiation (or non-negotiation) strategy.
An odd comment from someone normally so sensible. Losing a few or even a lot of British tourists isn't exactly going to cause the tourist industry of Southern Europe to "collapse". It's even more delusional to imagine that white van man is going to exchange his 2 weeks on the Costa del Sol for a fortnight in Cleethorpes because of Brexit.
Well, if there are "no flights" (as some suggest) then he won't have a great deal of choice in the matter.
I was not suggesting that there would be "no flights", but that there would be a reduction in the capacity in and out of the UK. Foreign airlines will still have access to the OpenSkies agreements via their treaties and some airlines that we use a lot (such as Ryanair) are EU based.
The simplest way forward may be for British airlines to relocate their head office to Europe and get all their Airworthiness stuff done abroad by EASA certified companies.
Where it gets really messy is that the UK (and France) are the hand-off / arrival points for a lot of transiting / transatlantic aircraft and that the system is working close to capacity as it stands. If the UK ATC system is "locked out" then that is another huge problem for airlines everywhere.
If the EU plays hardball all the way to March 2019, how do you see things playing out within the UK?
There would be economic, market and political chaos, the outcome of which is wholly unpredictable.
Very much as "project fear" said before the referendum. They just got the timescale wrong.
The reality is that the UK now has about 9 months to make all the key decisions on a transition deal. If a deal is not agreed, subject to dotting is and crossing ts, by next Summer there will not be time to sort out the detail and get it through the EU and UK institutions by March 2019. Given the complexity of the issues involved, of which landing rights and air safety is only one very small part, not to mention the bad blood on both sides, it is very very hard to see this happening. An "off the shelf" deal (EEA) might just about be achievable but the chances of a bespoke arrangement are pretty much zero.
I can't imagine where the EU get the idea that this is an internal Conservative civil war from.
David Herdson was right, the Tories should have gone into opposition on June 9th.
The Tory party needs to choose. Will it go with its head? Or will it embark on an ideological, ego-fuelled flight of fantasy?
Hard to call.
The Tory party is still haunted by the ghost of UKIP and Farage. They'll be terrified of doing anything that can be painted as 'defying the will of the people' - i.e. not ultra-hard Brexit. Boris knows this and that is why his current behaviour is so astute. He's portraying himself as the only true patriot in town.
A man fully prepared to sacrifice his country for his personal ambition
By a huge margin, EU electorates oppose giving any concessions to Britain, see the recent polling in Germany (arguably one of the more pragmatic and pro-British EU states).
Yes, they are as deluded as the Brexiteers.
Deluded to think that the UK can't be strong-armed into line? The experience of Suez says otherwise.
Yes, deluded to think that, and also deluded to think that they won't themselves be adversely affected.
The first point is part of a long-standing failure to understand the UK.
Of course, for the avoidance of doubt, this is bad news for us, as well as for them.
If the EU plays hardball all the way to March 2019, how do you see things playing out within the UK?
Likely 'get lost' attitude to the EU and very much increased support to just do whatever is required to leave
How far do you think people would be prepared to go?
- Accepting an immediate hit to GDP of x%? - Tanks on the streets of Northern Ireland and Edinburgh? - Harsh repression of 'Remoaners'?
The problem is that Leave is, and always was, hopelessly divided. On one extreme was the 'Norway Option'/EU-membership-in-all-but-name faction; on the other was turning Britain into a kind of North Korea with bowler hats. And there were a zillion other interpretations in between. We now have the likes of Boris, jostling for position, trying to pick the best faction to further his own career. Then Theresa has to play catch up. The result is paralysis.
As has been said on here before, if only Cameron had specified what flavour of Leave people were voting for before the ref, we'd be in a much better position.
I suspect Leave would still have won - maybe more handsomely if Leave meant a soft Brexit. At least this Tory civil war would have been avoided.
That makes sense but would have been politically impossible. Farage and co. would just have said that Dave was being mendacious and the whole referendum was a farce. And plenty of Tories would have joined the onslaught.
Mr. Sandpit, of all the bets, the most insightful was Alonso. Best judgement, but worst luck.
Glad the rain comment helped. Shame I didn't follow your tip, but these things happen. A green weekend's always good.
Indeed, green is always good!
If the chain reaction of dead cars had been moving a little faster, they’d have taken Lewis out and Alonso would have been fighting with Ricciardo for the lead after three corners. 400/1 bets will of course (almost) always lose, but once in a lifetime they come off - and a wet night race was as good a time as any to take the chance!
If the EU plays hardball all the way to March 2019, how do you see things playing out within the UK?
There would be economic, market and political chaos, the outcome of which is wholly unpredictable.
But you feel confident to predict that the UK won't capitulate in one form or another?
I'm not sure what you mean by 'capitulate'. We're currently not being offered anything at all. As the clock ticks down, it will soon become administratively impossible for the EU to offer us anything, other perhaps than temporary agreements to avoid the worst chaos such as flights being grounded (and even that needs to be done at least 15 months in advance, so that airlines can plan their schedules). If the EU persist in not offering us anything, there's nothing to capitulate to, we simply crash out and in that scenario obviously we don't pay them a bean - why would we?
I am making the assumption that no matter what happens, a 'status quo' transition where the only change is we give up political influence, possibly with higher payments, will be offered.
They will notice when airlines have trouble booking slots after March 2019 and we lose access via the EU OpenSkies agreement.
So will the Cypriot, Maltese, Greek, Italian, Czech, French, Spanish and Portugese tourist businesses, who would suddenly find that demand for their services had collapsed.
Oddly, this obvious point doesn't seem to have been noticed by the Cypriot, Maltese, Greek, Italian, Czech, French, Spanish and Portugese governments. It is striking that only Ireland seems fully aware of the risks the EU27 countries are running with their negotiation (or non-negotiation) strategy.
An odd comment from someone normally so sensible. Losing a few or even a lot of British tourists isn't exactly going to cause the tourist industry of Southern Europe to "collapse". It's even more delusional to imagine that white van man is going to exchange his 2 weeks on the Costa del Sol for a fortnight in Cleethorpes because of Brexit.
So, enough to make a big difference if UK demand falls sharply, and noticeable even if the fall is by only say 5%, which it could well be if we get a permanently low £ and tedious queues at borders. Putting it in context UK tourists are probably at least as important to most EU countries as UK motorists are to BMW.
Angela Merkel is into 1.03 on Betfair (same price as a female Chancellor, which has not always been the case).
Surely there is no debate about her being Chancellor just who she goes into coalition with.
SPD support has collapsed since March by nearly 50 per cent - the AfD seem to be moving up marginally. Perhaps another grand coalition with the AfD as official opposition or if they get enough seats a Coalition with the liberal Free Democrsts.
I am making the assumption that no matter what happens, a 'status quo' transition where the only change is we give up political influence, possibly with higher payments, will be offered.
I don't see how they could actually do that in the time available, even if they wanted to. It would require formal treaty-level EU27 unanimity, surely? And that means all the palaver of an Irish referendum, squaring the German supreme court, buying off the Walloons and all that guff.
Edit: If you mean just for the transition, then, yes, I think it is likely that we would sign up to that. In fact, I think that is exactly what we are suggesting. However, that begs the question of what follows after the transition.
BoJo's use of the gross figure leaves Sir David Norgrove "surprised and disappointed". He should make more of an effort to understand why the gross figure is indeed appropriate.
The Tory party needs to choose. Will it go with its head? Or will it embark on an ideological, ego-fuelled flight of fantasy?
Hard to call.
At the moment, it looks as though Boris has over-reached himself. However, it is an unstable situation and things could easily change.
Personally I think that the Tories need to elect Boris.
'Need' in the vertiginous compulsion sense?
"Need" in the sense that there seems to be only one way out of their current myopia - go forward, watch the disaster unfold and learn from it.
You can put out a fire by pouring water on it. Another technique is to pour more fuel on and let it burn out faster. The Tories seem to be resistant to the first method, so ...
Very revealing that the EU are still convinced this is nothing but a Tory civil war.
They need to talk outside their own echo chamber.
Sounds like spot-on analysis to me tbf.
I'm convinced that the EU don't think we're leaving/or think they can bully is into staying.
They're used to nations surrendering. They forget that we don't do that.
LOL, you still dreaming that UK is important to them. Get real, they understand how stupid you are, they remember "only dogs and Englishmen go out in the midday sun". They fully realise that UK are so petty they cut off their nose to spite their face. They don't care , they are getting on with it whilst we have 3 buffoons out their making a right hash of it, thinking that because they have union jack underpants on everyone will take them seriously.
Since he's going to work for her I suppose he still is.....
But is Davis still going to be working for her? Perhaps contrary to the popular perception, it's the cabinet who have been left in place as window dressing, while May takes advantage of their Mexican standoff to centralise power even further.
I can't imagine where the EU get the idea that this is an internal Conservative civil war from.
David Herdson was right, the Tories should have gone into opposition on June 9th.
The Tory party needs to choose. Will it go with its head? Or will it embark on an ideological, ego-fuelled flight of fantasy?
Hard to call.
The Tory party is still haunted by the ghost of UKIP and Farage. They'll be terrified of doing anything that can be painted as 'defying the will of the people' - i.e. not ultra-hard Brexit. Boris knows this and that is why his current behaviour is so astute. He's portraying himself as the only true patriot in town.
A man fully prepared to sacrifice his country for his personal ambition
Boris reminds me more and more of Anthony Wedgwood Benn, (Tony in his later incarnation).
A talented scion of the elite, public school and Oxford, photogenic, magnetic personality, charisma, rose quickly through the Party without anyone having a clear idea of what his true beliefs - beyond personal advancement - actually were.
Placed himself at the head of an internal party insurgency in the belief that it would carry him to the very top, apparently oblivious to the damage that would be caused on the way.
But at least Benn was in opposition in his most destructive phase - his insurgency threatened to destroy only the Labour Party. Bojo's megalomania could end up destroying the country.
They will notice when airlines have trouble booking slots after March 2019 and we lose access via the EU OpenSkies agreement.
So will the Cypriot, Maltese, Greek, Italian, Czech, French, Spanish and Portugese tourist businesses, who would suddenly find that demand for their services had collapsed.
Oddly, this obvious point doesn't seem to have been noticed by the Cypriot, Maltese, Greek, Italian, Czech, French, Spanish and Portugese governments. It is striking that only Ireland seems fully aware of the risks the EU27 countries are running with their negotiation (or non-negotiation) strategy.
An odd comment from someone normally so sensible. Losing a few or even a lot of British tourists isn't exactly going to cause the tourist industry of Southern Europe to "collapse". It's even more delusional to imagine that white van man is going to exchange his 2 weeks on the Costa del Sol for a fortnight in Cleethorpes because of Brexit.
Well, if there are "no flights" (as some suggest) then he won't have a great deal of choice in the matter.
I was not suggesting that there would be "no flights", but that there would be a reduction in the capacity in and out of the UK. Foreign airlines will still have access to the OpenSkies agreements via their treaties and some airlines that we use a lot (such as Ryanair) are EU based.
The simplest way forward may be for British airlines to relocate their head office to Europe and get all their Airworthiness stuff done abroad by EASA certified companies.
Where it gets really messy is that the UK (and France) are the hand-off / arrival points for a lot of transiting / transatlantic aircraft and that the system is working close to capacity as it stands. If the UK ATC system is "locked out" then that is another huge problem for airlines everywhere.
I’d do it the other way round, allowing by legislation the UK CAA to take over the certification requirements of G-registered aircraft, as it used to do before EASA. Then we have the CAA submit to IATA to ratify the agreements before joining the existing open skies agreements.
The advantages of this approach is that we can start it now (indeed we would need to start it now), it takes the big issue of aircraft certification out of the EU negotiations, and if the EU were to say they won’t allow our aircraft to transit EU skies that would look very petty indeed.
The Tory party needs to choose. Will it go with its head? Or will it embark on an ideological, ego-fuelled flight of fantasy?
Hard to call.
At the moment, it looks as though Boris has over-reached himself. However, it is an unstable situation and things could easily change.
Personally I think that the Tories need to elect Boris.
'Need' in the vertiginous compulsion sense?
"Need" in the sense that there seems to be only one way out of their current myopia - go forward, watch the disaster unfold and learn from it.
You can put out a fire by pouring water on it. Another technique is to pour more fuel on and let it burn out faster. The Tories seem to be resistant to the first method, so ...
There's also the high explosive 'blow out'. That'd be the JRM route I guess.
They will notice when airlines have trouble booking slots after March 2019 and we lose access via the EU OpenSkies agreement.
So will the Cypriot, Maltese, Greek, Italian, Czech, French, Spanish and Portugese tourist businesses, who would suddenly find that demand for their services had collapsed.
Oddly, this obvious point doesn't seem to have been noticed by the Cypriot, Maltese, Greek, Italian, Czech, French, Spanish and Portugese governments. It is striking that only Ireland seems fully aware of the risks the EU27 countries are running with their negotiation (or non-negotiation) strategy.
An odd comment from someone normally so sensible. Losing a few or even a lot of British tourists isn't exactly going to cause the tourist industry of Southern Europe to "collapse". It's even more delusional to imagine that white van man is going to exchange his 2 weeks on the Costa del Sol for a fortnight in Cleethorpes because of Brexit.
Well, if there are "no flights" (as some suggest) then he won't have a great deal of choice in the matter.
I was not suggesting that there would be "no flights", but that there would be a reduction in the capacity in and out of the UK. Foreign airlines will still have access to the OpenSkies agreements via their treaties and some airlines that we use a lot (such as Ryanair) are EU based.
The simplest way forward may be for British airlines to relocate their head office to Europe and get all their Airworthiness stuff done abroad by EASA certified companies.
Where it gets really messy is that the UK (and France) are the hand-off / arrival points for a lot of transiting / transatlantic aircraft and that the system is working close to capacity as it stands. If the UK ATC system is "locked out" then that is another huge problem for airlines everywhere.
if the EU were to say they won’t allow our aircraft to transit EU skies
I’d do it the other way round, allowing by legislation the UK CAA to take over the certification requirements of G-registered aircraft, as it used to do before EASA. Then we have the CAA submit to IATA to ratify the agreements before joining the existing open skies agreements.
The advantages of this approach is that we can start it now (indeed we would need to start it now), it takes the big issue of aircraft certification out of the EU negotiations, and if the EU were to say they won’t allow our aircraft to transit EU skies that would look very petty indeed.
Yes indeed. The expertise is still here, the same technicians are in the same jobs with the same tools, but the legal treaty aspects seem to be the issue so the sooner we get started with IATA the better
Since he's going to work for her I suppose he still is.....
EDIT - I see you edited your original post, presumably having read the article......George's headline a tad misleading eh?
Georgie Porgie's hatred clouding his judgment - this would work well if the guy were leaving to join Goldman Sachs, or the Evening Standard. But he isn't.
Even I'm beginning to get bored with teasing Remainers - I'm beginning to feel sorry for them instead. I'm sure they mean well, but to those who think we'll crawl back to the EU ... it's gone, the Rubicon has been crossed, the die has been cast.
Whether the EU negotiate nicely is up to them. We are out. The LDs are in la-la land. There's a new world coming whether they like it or not. The argument is over.
My son has taken possession of his new Irish passport and even he can joke about it now.
They will notice when airlines have trouble booking slots after March 2019 and we lose access via the EU OpenSkies agreement.
So will the Cypriot, Maltese, Greek, Italian, Czech, French, Spanish and Portugese tourist businesses, who would suddenly find that demand for their services had collapsed.
Oddly, this obvious point doesn't seem to have been noticed by the Cypriot, Maltese, Greek, Italian, Czech, French, Spanish and Portugese governments. It is striking that only Ireland seems fully aware of the risks the EU27 countries are running with their negotiation (or non-negotiation) strategy.
An odd comment from someone normally so sensible. Losing a few or even a lot of British tourists isn't exactly going to cause the tourist industry of Southern Europe to "collapse". It's even more delusional to imagine that white van man is going to exchange his 2 weeks on the Costa del Sol for a fortnight in Cleethorpes because of Brexit.
Well, if there are "no flights" (as some suggest) then he won't have a great deal of choice in the matter.
I was not suggesting that there would be "no flights", but that there would be a reduction in the capacity in and out of the UK. Foreign airlines will still have access to the OpenSkies agreements via their treaties and some airlines that we use a lot (such as Ryanair) are EU based.
The simplest way forward may be for British airlines to relocate their head office to Europe and get all their Airworthiness stuff done abroad by EASA certified companies.
Where it gets really messy is that the UK (and France) are the hand-off / arrival points for a lot of transiting / transatlantic aircraft and that the system is working close to capacity as it stands. If the UK ATC system is "locked out" then that is another huge problem for airlines everywhere.
if the EU were to say they won’t allow our aircraft to transit EU skies
I’d do it the other way round, allowing by legislation the UK CAA to take over the certification requirements of G-registered aircraft, as it used to do before EASA. Then we have the CAA submit to IATA to ratify the agreements before joining the existing open skies agreements.
The advantages of this approach is that we can start it now (indeed we would need to start it now), it takes the big issue of aircraft certification out of the EU negotiations, and if the EU were to say they won’t allow our aircraft to transit EU skies that would look very petty indeed.
Yes indeed. The expertise is still here, the same technicians are in the same jobs with the same tools, but the legal treaty aspects seem to be the issue so the sooner we get started with IATA the better
Yes, the UK CAA already deal with the licensing of pilots, inspectors, renewal of Cs of A and AOCs etc, to EASA standards.
The change required is just a paperwork exercise, which is exactly what the Repeal Bill is supposed to be doing - although I’ll guess that we’ve both at some point had a perfectly serviceable aircraft grounded by paperwork!
Why don't more indigenes want to be doctors? It has high social status and the pay is at worst pretty reasonable - not like solicitors and accountants whom everybody hates, and many of whom are working for local authorities for less than a bus driver earns.
They will notice when airlines have trouble booking slots after March 2019 and we lose access via the EU OpenSkies agreement.
So will the Cypriot, Maltese, Greek, Italian, Czech, French, Spanish and Portugese tourist businesses, who would suddenly find that demand for their services had collapsed.
Oddly, this obvious point doesn't seem to have been noticed by the Cypriot, Maltese, Greek, Italian, Czech, French, Spanish and Portugese governments. It is striking that only Ireland seems fully aware of the risks the EU27 countries are running with their negotiation (or non-negotiation) strategy.
An odd comment from someone normally so sensible. Losing a few or even a lot of British tourists isn't exactly going to cause the tourist industry of Southern Europe to "collapse". It's even more delusional to imagine that white van man is going to exchange his 2 weeks on the Costa del Sol for a fortnight in Cleethorpes because of Brexit.
Well, if there are "no flights" (as some suggest) then he won't have a great deal of choice in the matter.
I was not suggesting that there would be "no flights", but that there would be a reduction in the capacity in and out of the UK. Foreign airlines will still have access to the OpenSkies agreements via their treaties and some airlines that we use a lot (such as Ryanair) are EU based.
The simplest way forward may be for British airlines to relocate their head office to Europe and get all their Airworthiness stuff done abroad by EASA certified companies.
Where it gets really messy is that the UK (and France) are the hand-off / arrival points for a lot of transiting / transatlantic aircraft and that the system is working close to capacity as it stands. If the UK ATC system is "locked out" then that is another huge problem for airlines everywhere.
if the EU were to say they won’t allow our aircraft to transit EU skies
BoJo's use of the gross figure leaves Sir David Norgrove "surprised and disappointed". He should make more of an effort to understand why the gross figure is indeed appropriate.
The £350 million is rapidly become Leave's 'bankers' bonus' or '1p on income tax' - a magical pool of money that can fund absolutely everything. First it was the NHS, now technology. Boris had better make sure that £350 million, to the penny, is explicitly spent on something tangible. People will be sorely disappointed otherwise.
But is Davis still going to be working for her? Perhaps contrary to the popular perception, it's the cabinet who have been left in place as window dressing, while May takes advantage of their Mexican standoff to centralise power even further.
Why don't more indigenes want to be doctors? It has high social status and the pay is at worst pretty reasonable - not like solicitors and accountants whom everybody hates, and many of whom are working for local authorities for less than a bus driver earns.
They don't like the length of a medical degree.
Have to admit that's one of the reasons I didn't do medicine, that and I go all ponceyboots gay lord at the sight of blood.
Why don't more indigenes want to be doctors? It has high social status and the pay is at worst pretty reasonable - not like solicitors and accountants whom everybody hates, and many of whom are working for local authorities for less than a bus driver earns.
Because our schools aren’t up to teaching highly academic and specialised subjects in a way that encourages kids to go into them.
How many state schools teach separate sciences before A level, for example, and how many allow the children to actually to the experiments rather than watch the teacher do them?
Why don't more indigenes want to be doctors? It has high social status and the pay is at worst pretty reasonable - not like solicitors and accountants whom everybody hates, and many of whom are working for local authorities for less than a bus driver earns.
They don't like the length of a medical degree.
Have to admit that's one of the reasons I didn't do medicine, that and I go all ponceyboots gay lord at sight of blood.
Clearly we should lower the standards for white applicants, so as to ensure a more representative ethnic mix.
Why don't more indigenes want to be doctors? It has high social status and the pay is at worst pretty reasonable - not like solicitors and accountants whom everybody hates, and many of whom are working for local authorities for less than a bus driver earns.
They don't like the length of a medical degree.
Have to admit that's one of the reasons I didn't do medicine, that and I go all ponceyboots gay lord at the sight of blood.
Being a doctor is bloody hard work. Yes it’s high social status job but that’s not a lot of use if you’re working a 60 hour week.
Why don't more indigenes want to be doctors? It has high social status and the pay is at worst pretty reasonable - not like solicitors and accountants whom everybody hates, and many of whom are working for local authorities for less than a bus driver earns.
They don't like the length of a medical degree.
Have to admit that's one of the reasons I didn't do medicine, that and I go all ponceyboots gay lord at sight of blood.
Clearly we should lower the standards for white applicants, so as to ensure a more representative ethnic mix.
I have a better idea.
Exempt U.K. medical students from university fees if they agree post graduation to work for the N.H.S. for five years.
Why don't more indigenes want to be doctors? It has high social status and the pay is at worst pretty reasonable - not like solicitors and accountants whom everybody hates, and many of whom are working for local authorities for less than a bus driver earns.
Because our schools aren’t up to teaching highly academic and specialised subjects in a way that encourages kids to go into them.
How many state schools teach separate sciences before A level, for example, and how many allow the children to actually to the experiments rather than watch the teacher do them?
My grandson’s state grammar (Kent) does. At GSCE as well. Not sure about the experimentation, as he’s only just started the course.
They will notice when airlines have trouble booking slots after March 2019 and we lose access via the EU OpenSkies agreement.
So will the Cypriot, Maltese, Greek, Italian, Czech, French, Spanish and Portugese tourist businesses, who would suddenly find that demand for their services had collapsed.
Oddly, this obvious point doesn't seem to have been noticed by the Cypriot, Maltese, Greek, Italian, Czech, French, Spanish and Portugese governments. It is striking that only Ireland seems fully aware of the risks the EU27 countries are running with their negotiation (or non-negotiation) strategy.
An odd comment from someone normally so sensible. Losing a few or even a lot of British tourists isn't exactly going to cause the tourist industry of Southern Europe to "collapse". It's even more delusional to imagine that white van man is going to exchange his 2 weeks on the Costa del Sol for a fortnight in Cleethorpes because of Brexit.
Well, if there are "no flights" (as some suggest) then he won't have a great deal of choice in the matter.
I was not suggesting that there would be "no flights", but that there would be a reduction in the capacity in and out of the UK. Foreign airlines will still have access to the OpenSkies agreements via their treaties and some airlines that we use a lot (such as Ryanair) are EU based.
The simplest way forward may be for British airlines to relocate their head office to Europe and get all their Airworthiness stuff done abroad by EASA certified companies.
Where it gets really messy is that the UK (and France) are the hand-off / arrival points for a lot of transiting / transatlantic aircraft and that the system is working close to capacity as it stands. If the UK ATC system is "locked out" then that is another huge problem for airlines everywhere.
if the EU were to say they won’t allow our aircraft to transit EU skies
Presumably we could reciprocate?
More retaliate than reciprocate, no?
What are you suggesting? Ground to air missiles?
Of course not. But I think "reciprocate" is too mild for the scenario @Sandpit suggested: "if the EU were to say they won’t allow our aircraft to transit EU skies".
But is Davis still going to be working for her? Perhaps contrary to the popular perception, it's the cabinet who have been left in place as window dressing, while May takes advantage of their Mexican standoff to centralise power even further.
Sounds like DD hasn't passed muster. I must say that I've not been impressed - too many slanging matches and the impression of slackness. Nevertheless, is his role even meaningful any more? A deal with the EU looks a forlorn hope and Boris especially doesn't want one.
Sounds like DD hasn't passed muster. I must say that I've not been impressed - too many slanging matches and the impression of slackness. Nevertheless, is his role even meaningful any more? A deal with the EU looks a forlorn hope and Boris especially doesn't want one.
As far as one can tell from the outside, DD has been doing a pretty good job, I think. The position papers have been good and he's been very careful not to rise to the provocations from some on the other side. My only real criticism would be that occasionally his choice of words has been a bit flippant.
However, given that there are divisions in cabinet, it's not surprising that the PM feels she needs to take over political control. The question is: is she strong enough to do so?
Why don't more indigenes want to be doctors? It has high social status and the pay is at worst pretty reasonable - not like solicitors and accountants whom everybody hates, and many of whom are working for local authorities for less than a bus driver earns.
They don't like the length of a medical degree.
Have to admit that's one of the reasons I didn't do medicine, that and I go all ponceyboots gay lord at sight of blood.
Clearly we should lower the standards for white applicants, so as to ensure a more representative ethnic mix.
I have a better idea.
Exempt U.K. medical students from university fees if they agree post graduation to work for the N.H.S. for five years.
Yep. If we are going to have high tuition fees, we should be more flexible in our approach to certain areas. Medicine is a good starting point, as would agreements between universities and key employers in other STEM areas.
In commercial aviation, pilots often agree to a “training bond”, whereby an airline agrees to fund specific training (such as an aircraft type conversion, or captain upgrade course) in return for a commitment to length of service - with a pro-rata payment required if you leave before the period.
It’s clear that as we leave the EU, government and employers need to invest much more in training and developing careers than they have done in recent years, and employees should be more accepting of this training and less willing to change jobs every 18 months for a slightly better salary.
Sounds like DD hasn't passed muster. I must say that I've not been impressed - too many slanging matches and the impression of slackness. Nevertheless, is his role even meaningful any more? A deal with the EU looks a forlorn hope and Boris especially doesn't want one.
As far as one can tell from the outside, DD has been doing a pretty good job, I think. The position papers have been good and he's been very careful not to rise to the provocations from some on the other side. My only real criticism would be that occasionally his choice of words has been a bit flippant.
However, given that there are divisions in cabinet, it's not surprising that the PM feels she needs to take over political control. The question is: is she strong enough to do so?
If May really is going to make a very generous offer to the EU, to allow negotiations to proceed to trade, then it may well make sense as she will be leading them much more with the EU27 going forwards. And I'm sure the cross-departmental coordination is sorely needed.
PS. The last paragraph of the ES article on the future scope of Davis's role is very informative. It seems his job is now moving to a different phase, given a lot of the pre-work has been done.
Why don't more indigenes want to be doctors? It has high social status and the pay is at worst pretty reasonable - not like solicitors and accountants whom everybody hates, and many of whom are working for local authorities for less than a bus driver earns.
They don't like the length of a medical degree.
Have to admit that's one of the reasons I didn't do medicine, that and I go all ponceyboots gay lord at sight of blood.
Clearly we should lower the standards for white applicants, so as to ensure a more representative ethnic mix.
I have a better idea.
Exempt U.K. medical students from university fees if they agree post graduation to work for the N.H.S. for five years.
That's a very good idea. And, at the end of it, the 9% tax above £21k goes, which will make it much easier for NHS medics in their early 30s to buy property.
Why don't more indigenes want to be doctors? It has high social status and the pay is at worst pretty reasonable - not like solicitors and accountants whom everybody hates, and many of whom are working for local authorities for less than a bus driver earns.
Because our schools aren’t up to teaching highly academic and specialised subjects in a way that encourages kids to go into them.
How many state schools teach separate sciences before A level, for example, and how many allow the children to actually to the experiments rather than watch the teacher do them?
My grandson’s state grammar (Kent) does. At GSCE as well. Not sure about the experimentation, as he’s only just started the course.
I think it’s pretty much only grammar schools and the private sector that do it now.
Why don't more indigenes want to be doctors? It has high social status and the pay is at worst pretty reasonable - not like solicitors and accountants whom everybody hates, and many of whom are working for local authorities for less than a bus driver earns.
That stat appears to be registered docs, not just UK graduates, so reflects our mass importation of doctors particularly from the subcontinent over the decades. We have always been a big net importer of staff for the NHS.
New intake students in the UK are disproportionately BME, about 45% in Leicester, though we are a very multiculturally friendly city. 65% female too.
I have made the point at Med School interviews that as a WASP comprehensive school boy, that I am in an underserved minority. We have looked at legitimate ways of encouraging similar applications.
Comments
I notice you're still calling us all xenophobes, that's reassuring, I wouldn't want you to change tack onto something worthwhile.
After all, it was the likes of you that won it for us.
Nothing has changed.
Honest Brexiters know there will be an economic hit from Brexit. Most EFTA Brexiters are now terrified at the likelihood of a drop out into WTO.
Honest Remainers know that there is some sacrifice of sovereignty within the EU, and that the Commission itself is inherently integrationist.
If we are serious as a country we ought to be discussing how to manage the inevitable economic fallout. There is now plenty of evidence that Brexit uncertainty has dampened the economy and that carmakers and banks are making contingency plans to deliver future growth inside the EU rather than the UK.
https://twitter.com/bbcnickrobinson/status/909674462613790720
Brits are not going to be stopped from travelling as tourists to the Med. Any hit to Med travel would be from a falling pound.
But we are going to have obstacles put in place to hamper exports, while industries relying on Europe-wide supply chains are going to be buggered.
As for your second point, I was replying to a post about disruption to air travel. If white van man can't get to the Costa del Sol, then there are going to be a lot of bankrupt hotels on the Costa del Sol, are there not?
More generally, any hit to the UK economy would cause a wider hit to the EU27 economies, it's not just exports of goods which would be affected.
Of course, it remains the case that a chaotic Brexit would be much worse for the UK than for the EU27 countries (except probably Ireland). But that is not going to be much consolation to those of our EU friends who are most badly hit by it.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/16/business/economy/bump-in-us-incomes-doesnt-erase-50-years-of-pain.html
Holidays will still be on offer, but with a price hike.
She's too weak.
Likewise the Tories will not depose May.
Too scared of the alternative.
Despite all our (Brexit) rage, we are still just rats in a cage.
Having said that, unless May makes soft Brexit noises in Florence, I can see a coup by the agents of sanity/the Treasury.
The first point is part of a long-standing failure to understand the UK.
Of course, for the avoidance of doubt, this is bad news for us, as well as for them.
Hard to call.
But when 25% of prisoners are from the 14% general minority population, *that* is taken to be indicative of bigotry.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-41191311
The Lewis bet was at 23, so turned a £105ish profit on a fiver
I was also on your 4, a lay of Vettel at 1.7, and under 14.5 finishers at 2.2.
Ended the day nearly £150 up, which goes half way towards my ticket for the season finale in Abu Dhabi.
My only loser was a quid on Alonso at 400, and he was just behind Lewis when he got somewhat unceremoniously punted off by the out of control chain reaction of undriveable cars at the first corner. Still value though.
He said the CPS and their charging decisions were effectively colour blind.
I suspect Leave would still have won - maybe more handsomely if Leave meant a soft Brexit. At least this Tory civil war would have been avoided.
Glad the rain comment helped. Shame I didn't follow your tip, but these things happen. A green weekend's always good.
However, the reporting of such matters has been lamentable (possibly due to the confluence of journalistic incompetence on numbers [see also debt/deficit], and politically correct bullshit).
Truth be told, it is perfectly possible to continue at high speed even without wheels. For a period.
"If the EU plays hardball all the way to March 2019."
They may well do. They are European Toffs and they're not used to not getting their own way, so they react like a spoilt child would.
I expect our British equivalent (Cameron) told them not to worry about the referendum (he was rather good at politics) because it was in the bag. No need to toss the UK any crumbs.
Now dummies and prams are the order of the day.
The simplest way forward may be for British airlines to relocate their head office to Europe and get all their Airworthiness stuff done abroad by EASA certified companies.
Where it gets really messy is that the UK (and France) are the hand-off / arrival points for a lot of transiting / transatlantic aircraft and that the system is working close to capacity as it stands. If the UK ATC system is "locked out" then that is another huge problem for airlines everywhere.
The reality is that the UK now has about 9 months to make all the key decisions on a transition deal. If a deal is not agreed, subject to dotting is and crossing ts, by next Summer there will not be time to sort out the detail and get it through the EU and UK institutions by March 2019. Given the complexity of the issues involved, of which landing rights and air safety is only one very small part, not to mention the bad blood on both sides, it is very very hard to see this happening. An "off the shelf" deal (EEA) might just about be achievable but the chances of a bespoke arrangement are pretty much zero.
- Accepting an immediate hit to GDP of x%?
- Tanks on the streets of Northern Ireland and Edinburgh?
- Harsh repression of 'Remoaners'?
If the chain reaction of dead cars had been moving a little faster, they’d have taken Lewis out and Alonso would have been fighting with Ricciardo for the lead after three corners. 400/1 bets will of course (almost) always lose, but once in a lifetime they come off - and a wet night race was as good a time as any to take the chance!
and second only to the Boche in France
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tourism_in_France#Statistics
Can't find stats for Greece
So, enough to make a big difference if UK demand falls sharply, and noticeable even if the fall is by only say 5%, which it could well be if we get a permanently low £ and tedious queues at borders. Putting it in context UK tourists are probably at least as important to most EU countries as UK motorists are to BMW.
SPD support has collapsed since March by nearly 50 per cent - the AfD seem to be moving up marginally. Perhaps another grand coalition with the AfD as official opposition or if they get enough seats a Coalition with the liberal Free Democrsts.
Edit: If you mean just for the transition, then, yes, I think it is likely that we would sign up to that. In fact, I think that is exactly what we are suggesting. However, that begs the question of what follows after the transition.
https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/909730121854144512
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/09/why-is-the-uks-supposedly-independent-statistics-watchdog-joining-the-boris-bashing/
You can put out a fire by pouring water on it. Another technique is to pour more fuel on and let it burn out faster. The Tories seem to be resistant to the first method, so ...
EDIT - I see you edited your original post, presumably having read the article......George's headline a tad misleading eh?
A talented scion of the elite, public school and Oxford, photogenic, magnetic personality, charisma, rose quickly through the Party without anyone having a clear idea of what his true beliefs - beyond personal advancement - actually were.
Placed himself at the head of an internal party insurgency in the belief that it would carry him to the very top, apparently oblivious to the damage that would be caused on the way.
But at least Benn was in opposition in his most destructive phase - his insurgency threatened to destroy only the Labour Party. Bojo's megalomania could end up destroying the country.
The advantages of this approach is that we can start it now (indeed we would need to start it now), it takes the big issue of aircraft certification out of the EU negotiations, and if the EU were to say they won’t allow our aircraft to transit EU skies that would look very petty indeed.
Whether the EU negotiate nicely is up to them. We are out. The LDs are in la-la land. There's a new world coming whether they like it or not. The argument is over.
My son has taken possession of his new Irish passport and even he can joke about it now.
Let it go, boys and girls.
The change required is just a paperwork exercise, which is exactly what the Repeal Bill is supposed to be doing - although I’ll guess that we’ve both at some point had a perfectly serviceable aircraft grounded by paperwork!
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/909734690348814341?ref_src=twsrc^tfw&ref_url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/sep/18/boris-johnson-brexit-theresa-may-trudeau-conservatives-split-over-boris-johnsons-brexit-article-as-backlash-continues-politics-live
Have to admit that's one of the reasons I didn't do medicine, that and I go all ponceyboots gay lord at the sight of blood.
How many state schools teach separate sciences before A level, for example, and how many allow the children to actually to the experiments rather than watch the teacher do them?
Exempt U.K. medical students from university fees if they agree post graduation to work for the N.H.S. for five years.
However, given that there are divisions in cabinet, it's not surprising that the PM feels she needs to take over political control. The question is: is she strong enough to do so?
In commercial aviation, pilots often agree to a “training bond”, whereby an airline agrees to fund specific training (such as an aircraft type conversion, or captain upgrade course) in return for a commitment to length of service - with a pro-rata payment required if you leave before the period.
It’s clear that as we leave the EU, government and employers need to invest much more in training and developing careers than they have done in recent years, and employees should be more accepting of this training and less willing to change jobs every 18 months for a slightly better salary.
PS. The last paragraph of the ES article on the future scope of Davis's role is very informative. It seems his job is now moving to a different phase, given a lot of the pre-work has been done.
I think it’s pretty much only grammar schools and the private sector that do it now.
This is a pretty inspiring story about an inner-city free school in London which got a fantastic set of results. Note the ethnic mix of the students though. Not enough attention is paid to lower-class white kids whose parents show no interest in education.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4893462/Free-school-London-sends-pupils-Universities.html
New intake students in the UK are disproportionately BME, about 45% in Leicester, though we are a very multiculturally friendly city. 65% female too.
I have made the point at Med School interviews that as a WASP comprehensive school boy, that I am in an underserved minority. We have looked at legitimate ways of encouraging similar applications.