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  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    Roger said:

    Sean_F said:

    Roger said:

    DavidL said:

    I don't think I ever thought or said that negotiation with the EU was going to be easy but I have been overly optimistic about what can be achieved in the time available. It is now evident that this will be almost no time at all. May will make her speech, in October the EU will say insufficient progress has been made and it will the new year at the very earliest before trade discussions even begin.

    ...

    As I said some months ago we need to have a stripped down list of our priorities and some sort of transitional agreement that allows us to sort out the details of other matters later. Like membership itself our relationship with the EU will not be finally resolved by this deal, it will continue to evolve over time becoming closer in some areas and more distant in others.

    Having such a list is not the same as achieving it though. Hammond recently stated the Treasury were making contingency plans for a no deal Brexit. This is only common sense and really should have been started a year ago. The unreality that Alastair describes means a lot of time has been wasted.

    One final thought. It really is time we moved past remainers and leavers. There are no bonus points for I told you so on either side. We, as a country, have some serious work to do to make the best of Brexit. That requires all hands to the pumps. There will be time for the allocation of blame later, if anyone is still interested.


    Your final paragraph is asking for the impossible. Remainers believe Leavers are morons -the evidence of which is muliplying by the day-and thus will do do everything in their powers to reverse a decision which many believe is suicidal.

    And who in their right minds wouldn't try to prevent a suicide......
    If you are correct, then Remainers will remain ineffectual.
    Its more akin to parents , realising that their child is making a terrible marriage choice, but cannot do anything about it... whilst knowing down the line there will be a lot of wreckage to clear up.
    A fissure has been exposed in the country which was little thought about but perfectly illustrated by on one side the Essex man who draped his house in giant flags of the Cross of St George and on the other the politician who tweeted a photo of it.
    Indeed. Except the number backing or even thinking like the politician might only be in 6 figures....
  • A few months before the referendum I said Leave's plan was like a man who wants to divorce his wife and still expects a blowjob and dinner from her everyday after the divorce.

    I too took grief over that, but I was right.

    She was slapping the same old dinner down night after night, and they were getting worse, and she was telling the man he should be grateful for it.

    There were no blowjobs on offer, but the man had to put up with her whole family visiting night after night, deciding what he'd do in his own free time for him, and she expected big payments into her purse every month on top.

    When he objected, she offered to serve half an additional bread roll with the main course, and the man thought 'sod it', and left.
  • When he objected, she offered to serve half an additional bread roll with the main course, and the man thought 'sod it', and left.

    To take the analogy to its logical conclusion, the Brexiteers should all move to Australia or Canada and leave the 'house' to those who quite like being in Europe.
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:


    One final thought. It really is time we moved past remainers and leavers. There are no bonus points for I told you so on either side. We, as a country, have some serious work to do to make the best of Brexit. That requires all hands to the pumps. There will be time for the allocation of blame later, if anyone is still interested.

    Perhaps moving past 'remoaners' might be a more realistic target? Baby steps and all that.
    I've never used that phrase, but yes. Absolutely.
    I was pretty sure you hadn't, but I seem to recall recent enthusiastic excitement on here on how the term had become fixed in the national discourse.

    It may be too late in any case, continuity Remain seems to have adopted it as a badge of pride.
    Remoaner and Little Englander are just plain insulting and neither should be used by anyone wanting to have a fair hearing.

    There is no doubt Brexit is a complex subject and I am astonished that the one person to lay the blame on is Juncker and he is still in post. He is inept and ridiculous and even Vince Cable has called for his sacking (along with his suggestion he will be the next PM)

    I have no idea how this will pan out but as David says both the remain and leave sides need to gather around a compromise position. We are not going to stay in the EU so constantly arguing for it is a lost cause, equally a hard Brexit is not a tenable position.

    I am concerned at some evidence that TM is talking with more hesitation, and even as William suggested, and a possible stammer and it does distract from her message. I certainly hope her Florence speech is not as bad as her interview with ABC yesterday. Notwithstanding her faults, she is the best we have at present and for everyone's sake I hope she can cut through with the EU.

    However, I do not see her surviving beyond mid 2019. Possibly a resignation in July 2019 with a new leader in place for the September 2019 return of the HOC. And no, I do not have any thoughts on her successor or even Boris at this stage
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:



    One final thought. It really is time we moved past remainers and leavers. There are no bonus points for I told you so on either side. We, as a country, have some serious work to do to make the best of Brexit. That requires all hands to the pumps. There will be time for the allocation of blame later, if anyone is still interested.

    How do you propose to persuade people to get behind a project that they believe to be insanely self-harming?
    By listening to what they have to say and giving them influence in all the second order decisions: customs union or not, EEA or not, the nature of free movement with the EU, the rights of EU citizens already here, the details of what organisations we want associate membership of and a willingness to pay for that membership. Leaving all of this to the troika of Boris, Fox and Davis is really not in anyone's interests, leaver or remainer. This is complicated and we are not blessed with an excess of ability in our political class.
    Not going to happen. Brexit as campaigned for has to be seen through to its insular xenophobic conclusion. Only once the implications of that have become apparent to the meanest intellects can positive progress be made.
    Out of interest, let's say Brexit is followed along the lines you describe to the conclusion you anticipate.

    Once it has, what's the positive progress you'd then be looking for? To rejoin the EU, or to establish the UK in a closer economic relationship, like the EEA?
    Frankly even in those circumstances the chances of positive progress are poor. It must be at least as likely that Britain will blame the EU for its own misfortunes and turn further inward. Or it will decide that the answer lies in socialism in one country, taking the next spiral down the Argentine route of cannoning from extreme populist right to extreme populist left and back.

    But there would then be an outside chance that a majority in Britain could be constructed that saw the merits of closer cooperation with the EU, that saw that such cooperation could not be exclusively on the terms that Britain wished for and was willing to explore a form of détente. And then at least Britain would be back on an upward trajectory.
    I don't think the UK is going to follow the path you fear it will, but I think I understand your second point.
    When the city is reduced to rubble, you don't worry too much about what colour of marble you're going to use to clad the imperial bathroom.
    Err... Ok.
  • I don't mind the appropriate use of either Remoaner or Little Englander. There are people who abundantly justify the use of those phrases.

    The misuse is irksome, I agree.
  • F1: hmm. It's a fortnight away, and the BBC forecast doesn't even go that far, but every day Kuala Lumpur is scheduled for some rain. Putting Malaysia back in the calendar might have made rain very likely.

    Alonso win each way at 1000/1 for a tiny sum might be worth a look. Hulkenberg likewise at 500/1.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    edited September 2017


    When the city is reduced to rubble, you don't worry too much about what colour of marble you're going to use to clad the imperial bathroom.

    Err... Ok.
    I accept that these are niceties that the barbarian horde wouldn't consider as it's wrecking what used to be a good place to live in.
  • stodge said:

    <
    I would be happy with EFTA, but it's off the table because it contains free movement: the trans-European religion.

    We come back to this question which, far more than Europe, has bedevilled British politics over the past 50 years and that's immigration. Is it no more than a necessary evil for an economy to keep growing or are there deeper cultural issues ?

    Is it about "integration" or people "not like us coming here and behaving differently" ? Are we, as an insular race, naturally or culturally suspicious of outsiders?

    I don't know but that there is a problem or an issue and that it played a role in the 2016 referendum vote is for me undeniable. It's not easy to talk about it rationally or sensibly because vitriol soon gets into the mix.

    My personal position is I've no problem with planned levels of immigration - planned in terms of jobs and accommodation paid for and supplied by employers who also make an additional contribution to infrastructure costs (transport, health services etc). I also think the immigration system should be transparent and equitable from wherever you are in the world.

    We will always need and should always welcome people with skills we need and people willing to learn from us who can take those skills back to their home countries.

    I also think we need to help those in genuine need or in genuine fear for their lives but whether that support is in terms of providing asylum here or supporting other aid agencies closer to the areas affected is going to be different on a case-by-case basis. Leaving people to rot in camps is no solution either.

    The best thing you can say is that it's complex. Totally closed borders make no more sense than totally open ones. But people were told we couldn't control migration numbers whilst in the EU, so they decided to Leave the EU.

    I think i agree with virtually all of your post.
  • stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    As always, Antifrank makes some interesting points. I genuinely think a lot of people thought we would leave the EU on June 24th 2016 and based their predictions on that inaccuracy. The economic fundamentals haven't changed appreciably since the Referendum and in many ways things are going well though low productivity and a reliance on cheap labour rather than technological innovation to boost that productivity is a concern.

    After the vote, we moved into one holding pattern awaiting the triggering of the A50 notice and now we are in another as the negotiations move forward.


    I wanted EFTA membership and an opportunity for the UK to re-invent that organisation for the 2020s as a free market counterweight to the EU (and if the EU members want to move toward closer political and economic integration, that's fine, I wish them well) but that seems off the table for reasons I'm not wholly clear about.

    I would be happy with EFTA, but it's off the table because it contains free movement: the trans-European religion.
    Surely it's the British obsession with the supposed issues FoM creates that's the problem?
  • A few months before the referendum I said Leave's plan was like a man who wants to divorce his wife and still expects a blowjob and dinner from her everyday after the divorce.

    I too took grief over that, but I was right.

    She was slapping the same old dinner down night after night, and they were getting worse, and she was telling the man he should be grateful for it.

    There were no blowjobs on offer, but the man had to put up with her whole family visiting night after night, deciding what he'd do in his own free time for him, and she expected big payments into her purse every month on top.

    When he objected, she offered to serve half an additional bread roll with the main course, and the man thought 'sod it', and left.
    Sounds like married life.
  • Disgraced Kids Company founder spent £55,000 on ONE drug addict including paying for him to have a 'chocolate massage' because it was good for his 'self-esteem'

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4893478/Disgraced-Kids-Company-founder-spent-55-000-ONE-addict.html

    I expect those who got onto Kid's Company's shortlist were laughing all the way to the bank.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,520

    Disgraced Kids Company founder spent £55,000 on ONE drug addict including paying for him to have a 'chocolate massage' because it was good for his 'self-esteem'

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4893478/Disgraced-Kids-Company-founder-spent-55-000-ONE-addict.html

    Surely the Charities Commission, the Audit Commission or some other agency has the power to make a case that this charity was acting illegally with regard to their use of public funds? People like Mrs Batmanwoman give those running genuine charities supporting the vulnerable a very bad name indeed.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,786

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    As always, Antifrank makes some interesting points. I genuinely think a lot of people thought we would leave the EU on June 24th 2016 and based their predictions on that inaccuracy. The economic fundamentals haven't changed appreciably since the Referendum and in many ways things are going well though low productivity and a reliance on cheap labour rather than technological innovation to boost that productivity is a concern.

    After the vote, we moved into one holding pattern awaiting the triggering of the A50 notice and now we are in another as the negotiations move forward.


    I wanted EFTA membership and an opportunity for the UK to re-invent that organisation for the 2020s as a free market counterweight to the EU (and if the EU members want to move toward closer political and economic integration, that's fine, I wish them well) but that seems off the table for reasons I'm not wholly clear about.

    I would be happy with EFTA, but it's off the table because it contains free movement: the trans-European religion.
    Surely it's the British obsession with the supposed issues FoM creates that's the problem?
    FoM creates problems due to the way our benefit systems work. Labour really, really should have fixed those problems (for at the time their were easily fixable) before opening the doors to Eastern Europeans.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    Scott_P said:
    Surely the English language must have invented or inherited word by now to describe Gove's multiple ratting?
  • Jonathan said:

    That Tweet is a peach. David Davis really is an utter buffoon. The only thing that matches his incompetence is his ego. The way Brexit is unfolding owes much to his unique skills.


    I could have chosen a dozen other tweets from David Davis pre referendum that were equally 'prophetic'
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,970
    Roger said:

    Scott_P said:
    Surely the English language must have invented or inherited word by now to describe Gove's multiple ratting?
    I think the phrase is Lucy van Pelt ?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,520
    Roger said:

    Sean_F said:

    Roger said:

    DavidL said:


    I agree with Alastair (I think) that this is not any particularly clever strategy on the EU's part, it is simply the way that they do things. It is not in fact in their interests but Alastair is correct in pointing out that that obvious fact does not sweep all before it and will not change the mode of operation. They are what they are and it is not easy to herd 27 nations.

    As I said some months ago we need to have a stripped down list of our priorities and some sort of transitional agreement that allows us to sort out the details of other matters later. Like membership itself our relationship with the EU will not be finally resolved by this deal, it will continue to evolve over time becoming closer in some areas and more distant in others.

    Having such a list is not the same as achieving it though. Hammond recently stated the Treasury were making contingency plans for a no deal Brexit. This is only common sense and really should have been started a year ago. The unreality that Alastair describes means a lot of time has been wasted.

    One final thought. It really is time we moved past remainers and leavers. There are no bonus points for I told you so on either side. We, as a country, have some serious work to do to make the best of Brexit. That requires all hands to the pumps. There will be time for the allocation of blame later, if anyone is still interested.


    Your final paragraph is asking for the impossible. Remainers believe Leavers are morons -the evidence of which is muliplying by the day-and thus will do do everything in their powers to reverse a decision which many believe is suicidal.

    And who in their right minds wouldn't try to prevent a suicide......
    If you are correct, then Remainers will remain ineffectual.
    Its more akin to parents , realising that their child is making a terrible marriage choice, but cannot do anything about it... whilst knowing down the line there will be a lot of wreckage to clear up.
    A fissure has been exposed in the country which was little thought about but perfectly illustrated by on one side the Essex man who draped his house in giant flags of the Cross of St George and on the other the politician who tweeted a photo of it.
    Roger, I normally disagree with everything you say, but that is indeed a great metaphor for both what happened, and why.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,970

    A few months before the referendum I said Leave's plan was like a man who wants to divorce his wife and still expects a blowjob and dinner from her everyday after the divorce.

    I too took grief over that, but I was right.

    She was slapping the same old dinner down night after night, and they were getting worse, and she was telling the man he should be grateful for it.

    There were no blowjobs on offer, but the man had to put up with her whole family visiting night after night, deciding what he'd do in his own free time for him, and she expected big payments into her purse every month on top.

    When he objected, she offered to serve half an additional bread roll with the main course, and the man thought 'sod it', and left.
    You married ??
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,764

    Jonathan said:

    That Tweet is a peach. David Davis really is an utter buffoon. The only thing that matches his incompetence is his ego. The way Brexit is unfolding owes much to his unique skills.


    I could have chosen a dozen other tweets from David Davis pre referendum that were equally 'prophetic'
    Davis' unnecessary by-election should have concerned May that Davis might not have the judgement necessary for such an important job. I guess they're mates from the IDS era.

    One day we're going to have sensible people back in charge. No idea when. Until then it's all pretty depressing.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Sandpit said:

    Roger said:

    Sean_F said:

    Roger said:

    DavidL said:


    I agree with Alastair (I think) that this is not any particularly clever strategy on the EU's part, it is simply the way that they do things. It is not in fact in their interests but Alastair is correct in pointing out that that obvious fact does not sweep all before it and will not change the mode of operation. They are what they are and it is not easy to herd 27 nations.

    As I said some months ago we need to have a stripped down list of our priorities and some sort of transitional agreement that allows us to sort out the details of other matters later. Like membership itself our relationship with the EU will not be finally resolved by this deal, it will continue to evolve over time becoming closer in some areas and more distant in others.

    Having such a list is not the same as achieving it though. Hammond recently stated the Treasury were making contingency plans for a no deal Brexit. This is only common sense and really should have been started a year ago. The unreality that Alastair describes means a lot of time has been wasted.

    One final thought. It really is time we moved past remainers and leavers. There are no bonus points for I told you so on either side. We, as a country, have some serious work to do to make the best of Brexit. That requires all hands to the pumps. There will be time for the allocation of blame later, if anyone is still interested.


    Your final paragraph is asking for the impossible. Remainers believe Leavers are morons -the evidence of which is muliplying by the day-and thus will do do everything in their powers to reverse a decision which many believe is suicidal.

    And who in their right minds wouldn't try to prevent a suicide......
    If you are correct, then Remainers will remain ineffectual.
    Its more akin to parents , realising that their child is making a terrible marriage choice, but cannot do anything about it... whilst knowing down the line there will be a lot of wreckage to clear up.
    A fissure has been exposed in the country which was little thought about but perfectly illustrated by on one side the Essex man who draped his house in giant flags of the Cross of St George and on the other the politician who tweeted a photo of it.
    Roger, I normally disagree with everything you say, but that is indeed a great metaphor for both what happened, and why.
    And admirably even-handed.
  • Roger said:

    Scott_P said:
    Surely the English language must have invented or inherited word by now to describe Gove's multiple ratting?
    wiederkehrender Verräter

    A mouthful, but a strangely satisfying one.
  • Very revealing that the EU are still convinced this is nothing but a Tory civil war.

    They need to talk outside their own echo chamber.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @faisalislam: Today we launch Brexit Forensics - a deep dive into some of the issues and sectoral changes thrown up by EU Withdrawal - starting with Cars
  • stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    As always, Antifrank makes some interesting points. I genuinely think a lot of people thought we would leave the EU on June 24th 2016 and based their predictions on that inaccuracy. The economic fundamentals haven't changed appreciably since the Referendum and in many ways things are going well though low productivity and a reliance on cheap labour rather than technological innovation to boost that productivity is a concern.

    After the vote, we moved into one holding pattern awaiting the triggering of the A50 notice and now we are in another as the negotiations move forward.


    I wanted EFTA membership and an opportunity for the UK to re-invent that organisation for the 2020s as a free market counterweight to the EU (and if the EU members want to move toward closer political and economic integration, that's fine, I wish them well) but that seems off the table for reasons I'm not wholly clear about.

    I would be happy with EFTA, but it's off the table because it contains free movement: the trans-European religion.
    Surely it's the British obsession with the supposed issues FoM creates that's the problem?
    The issues aren't supposed, and the consequences are a legitimate concern.

    It's the failure of the EU to understand and engage with this that's the problem.
  • Roger said:

    Scott_P said:
    Surely the English language must have invented or inherited word by now to describe Gove's multiple ratting?
    A fellow Cameroon once called Michael Gove 'Judas Iscariot', I told them that analogy was unfair, Judas had the decency to hang himself after his betrayal*.

    *Well according to The Gospel of Matthew.
  • I don't mind the appropriate use of either Remoaner or Little Englander. There are people who abundantly justify the use of those phrases.

    The misuse is irksome, I agree.

    I just do not think they are necessary and they are used to cause annoyance by both sides
  • When he objected, she offered to serve half an additional bread roll with the main course, and the man thought 'sod it', and left.

    To take the analogy to its logical conclusion, the Brexiteers should all move to Australia or Canada and leave the 'house' to those who quite like being in Europe.
    Certainly not. Ideologues like you have no right of ownership over these islands.
  • A few months before the referendum I said Leave's plan was like a man who wants to divorce his wife and still expects a blowjob and dinner from her everyday after the divorce.

    I too took grief over that, but I was right.

    She was slapping the same old dinner down night after night, and they were getting worse, and she was telling the man he should be grateful for it.

    There were no blowjobs on offer, but the man had to put up with her whole family visiting night after night, deciding what he'd do in his own free time for him, and she expected big payments into her purse every month on top.

    When he objected, she offered to serve half an additional bread roll with the main course, and the man thought 'sod it', and left.
    Sounds like married life.
    I've obviously got this married life lark wrong ... or right. ;)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849

    Very revealing that the EU are still convinced this is nothing but a Tory civil war.

    They need to talk outside their own echo chamber.
    Sounds like spot-on analysis to me tbf.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    That Tweet is a peach. David Davis really is an utter buffoon. The only thing that matches his incompetence is his ego. The way Brexit is unfolding owes much to his unique skills.


    I could have chosen a dozen other tweets from David Davis pre referendum that were equally 'prophetic'
    Davis' unnecessary by-election should have concerned May that Davis might not have the judgement necessary for such an important job. I guess they're mates from the IDS era.

    One day we're going to have sensible people back in charge. No idea when. Until then it's all pretty depressing.
    All downhill since Major.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,764

    Roger said:

    Scott_P said:
    Surely the English language must have invented or inherited word by now to describe Gove's multiple ratting?
    A fellow Cameroon once called Michael Gove 'Judas Iscariot', I told them that analogy was unfair, Judas had the decency to hang himself after his betrayal*.

    *Well according to The Gospel of Matthew.
    Gove really is the worst kind of politician. It is all about his ego.
  • DavidL
    I think that you are right. The country is split down the middle, and until there is a sizable majority in favour of one or the other options available there will be no lasting settlement.
    It would be helpful if we had some actual figures on the likely effects of leaving. So far, there are only two scenarios, dependent on your point of view. It will all be wonderful and SS GB will sail out and take her rightful place in the world, a la Bojo, or it will be Armageddon.
    As of this moment I can’t find a consensus figure as to what % of current UK trade is dependent on the EU. It seems to be somewhere between 40% and 60%, taking account of the Amsterdam effect and the current trade deals on which we rely. Either is a very substantial proportion. How much will be placed at risk if we fail to negotiate a reasonable deal?
    Looking from outside, the alternative is WTO terms, which leavers feel will be the salvation. As I understand it, WTO terms require us to file a schedule of tariffs, and then operate these for all trade. Only two suggestions that I can see have been discussed. We set them all at Zero and let others reciprocate. The consensus is that this would be a disaster.
    The second is that we adopt the EU tariffs, and tweak these later. This seems more sensible, but we already deal with the World on these terms, without being notably successful. What would change if we lose half our trade with the EU and continue our trade with the rest of the world?
    Substitution is suggested, but in an economy where we have a shortage of skilled staff, it will take several years and substantial investment to train up staff to the levels required.
    In the meantime, we pursue an option which is not acceptable to 50% of the population and which puts the Union (which I know you support) at risk.

    Tig86
    I tried to raise this issue in my first posts last week. It seems that PB leavers cannot distinguish between Border arrangements and Custom arrangements. The Border exists, but because of the currents arrangements between the three entities involved (GB, Ireland and the EU), it does not require supervision or policing. On secession that will no longer be the case, and the Border will have to be supervised. Customs arrangements will of course be dependent on the trade deals and particularly on whether GB will remain in a (the) Custom Union.
  • Sandpit said:

    Roger said:

    Sean_F said:

    Roger said:

    DavidL said:


    I agree with Alastair (I think) that this is not any particularly clever strategy on the EU's part, it is simply the way that they do things. It is not in fact in their interests but Alastair is correct in pointing out that that obvious fact does not sweep all before it and will not change the mode of operation. They are what they are and it is not easy to herd 27 nations.

    As I said some months ago we need to have a stripped down list of our priorities and some sort of transitional agreement that allows us to sort out the details of other matters later. Like membership itself our relationship with the EU will not be finally resolved by this deal, it will continue to evolve over time becoming closer in some areas and more distant in others.

    Having such a list is not the same as achieving it though. Hammond recently stated the Treasury were making contingency plans for a no deal Brexit. This is only common sense and really should have been started a year ago. The unreality that Alastair describes means a lot of time has been wasted.

    One final thought. It really is time we moved past remainers and leavers. There are no bonus points for I told you so on either side. We, as a country, have some serious work to do to make the best of Brexit. That requires all hands to the pumps. There will be time for the allocation of blame later, if anyone is still interested.


    Your final paragraph is asking for the impossible. Remainers believe Leavers are morons -the evidence of which is muliplying by the day-and thus will do do everything in their powers to reverse a decision which many believe is suicidal.

    And who in their right minds wouldn't try to prevent a suicide......
    If you are correct, then Remainers will remain ineffectual.
    Its more akin to parents , realising that their child is making a terrible marriage choice, but cannot do anything about it... whilst knowing down the line there will be a lot of wreckage to clear up.
    A fissure has been exposed in the country which was little thought about but perfectly illustrated by on one side the Essex man who draped his house in giant flags of the Cross of St George and on the other the politician who tweeted a photo of it.
    Roger, I normally disagree with everything you say, but that is indeed a great metaphor for both what happened, and why.
    I would second that - very succinct
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    That Tweet is a peach. David Davis really is an utter buffoon. The only thing that matches his incompetence is his ego. The way Brexit is unfolding owes much to his unique skills.


    I could have chosen a dozen other tweets from David Davis pre referendum that were equally 'prophetic'
    Davis' unnecessary by-election should have concerned May that Davis might not have the judgement necessary for such an important job. I guess they're mates from the IDS era.

    One day we're going to have sensible people back in charge. No idea when. Until then it's all pretty depressing.
    Any suggestion who could be classed as sensible in this divisive matter
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    Very revealing that the EU are still convinced this is nothing but a Tory civil war.

    They need to talk outside their own echo chamber.
    Sounds like spot-on analysis to me tbf.
    I'm convinced that the EU don't think we're leaving/or think they can bully is into staying.

    They're used to nations surrendering. They forget that we don't do that.
  • Scott_P said:

    @faisalislam: Today we launch Brexit Forensics - a deep dive into some of the issues and sectoral changes thrown up by EU Withdrawal - starting with Cars

    Another pro EU non biased report by Faisal aka Scott coming
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Re that Mail article - I seriously cannot believe that Messina thought the Tories were going to win 470 seats! Not even the most optimistic predictions on here thought that anything close to that number was likely. Also, it looks like after all of mocking of Momentum (and I'm hardly innocent in this) it looks like they were a pretty effective force in the campaign and that Corbyn's Labour attracting more members really was important after all.

    I would imagine that he included a number of scenarios in his analysis and some one has chosen to leak the "rosy with bells on it" scenario to embarrass Messina. I very much doubt it was his central case.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,885
    Dubliner said:

    DavidL
    I think that you are right. The country is split down the middle, and until there is a sizable majority in favour of one or the other options available there will be no lasting settlement.
    It would be helpful if we had some actual figures on the likely effects of leaving. So far, there are only two scenarios, dependent on your point of view. It will all be wonderful and SS GB will sail out and take her rightful place in the world, a la Bojo, or it will be Armageddon.
    As of this moment I can’t find a consensus figure as to what % of current UK trade is dependent on the EU. It seems to be somewhere between 40% and 60%, taking account of the Amsterdam effect and the current trade deals on which we rely. Either is a very substantial proportion. How much will be placed at risk if we fail to negotiate a reasonable deal?
    Looking from outside, the alternative is WTO terms, which leavers feel will be the salvation. As I understand it, WTO terms require us to file a schedule of tariffs, and then operate these for all trade. Only two suggestions that I can see have been discussed. We set them all at Zero and let others reciprocate. The consensus is that this would be a disaster.
    The second is that we adopt the EU tariffs, and tweak these later. This seems more sensible, but we already deal with the World on these terms, without being notably successful. What would change if we lose half our trade with the EU and continue our trade with the rest of the world?
    Substitution is suggested, but in an economy where we have a shortage of skilled staff, it will take several years and substantial investment to train up staff to the levels required.
    In the meantime, we pursue an option which is not acceptable to 50% of the population and which puts the Union (which I know you support) at risk.

    Tig86
    I tried to raise this issue in my first posts last week. It seems that PB leavers cannot distinguish between Border arrangements and Custom arrangements. The Border exists, but because of the currents arrangements between the three entities involved (GB, Ireland and the EU), it does not require supervision or policing. On secession that will no longer be the case, and the Border will have to be supervised. Customs arrangements will of course be dependent on the trade deals and particularly on whether GB will remain in a (the) Custom Union.

    Excellent post.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,970
    Sandpit said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    After the vote, we moved into one holding pattern awaiting the triggering of the A50 notice and now we are in another as the negotiations move forward.

    ....

    We then had the farce of the GE this spring and early summer which produced, in all honesty, the worst possible result (and I exclude a Corbyn minority Government from that). May's authority was smashed (despite the continued whining of her apologists on here) and the divisions were laid bare once again.

    I am still completely unclear as to what it is the UK wants from A50 - we cannot remain in the Single Market (which I consider a pernicious mechanism) without Freedom of Movement (and as some point out the country is pretty much split down the middle on this as well). The obvious (though they never are) fault line is single market/open door migration vs control over immigration/no more single market. Both have their adherents, neither is perfect.

    I wanted EFTA membership and an opportunity for the UK to re-invent that organisation for the 2020s as a free market counterweight to the EU (and if the EU members want to move toward closer political and economic integration, that's fine, I wish them well) but that seems off the table for reasons I'm not wholly clear about.

    I would be happy with EFTA, but it's off the table because it contains free movement: the trans-European religion.
    Free movement within the EFTA area countries wouldn’t be a huge problem within the UK, but I think the agreement means we would have to accept free movement with the whole EU ie the status quo.
    It would.
    As we've explored before, there are many ways to circumscribe freedom of movement within the rules, but that is probably not sufficient to satisfy those for whom this is a defining issue.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,274
    Dubliner said:

    TLG86
    I tried to raise this issue in my first posts last week. It seems that PB leavers cannot distinguish between Border arrangements and Custom arrangements. The Border exists, but because of the currents arrangements between the three entities involved (GB, Ireland and the EU), it does not require supervision or policing. On secession that will no longer be the case, and the Border will have to be supervised. Customs arrangements will of course be dependent on the trade deals and particularly on whether GB will remain in a (the) Custom Union.

    Why does us leaving the EU (I'm not sure seceding is the right word) change anything? Surely the border is a matter for us and Ireland. The EU's only interest is the customs arrangements.
  • Very revealing that the EU are still convinced this is nothing but a Tory civil war.

    They need to talk outside their own echo chamber.
    Sounds like spot-on analysis to me tbf.
    And you'd be wrong.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    tlg86 said:

    Why does us leaving the EU (I'm not sure seceding is the right word) change anything? Surely the border is a matter for us and Ireland. The EU's only interest is the customs arrangements.

    When (if) we leave the EU, it becomes an external border. Of course they care.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849

    Roger said:

    Scott_P said:
    Surely the English language must have invented or inherited word by now to describe Gove's multiple ratting?
    wiederkehrender Verräter

    A mouthful, but a strangely satisfying one.
    Yes, but disappointing if the Germans don't just roll it up into one compound "wiederkehrenderverräter".

    Verräter is great for traitor though... if only those bloody Normans hadn't corrupted(!) our language with all that French! :lol:
  • Mortimer said:

    Very revealing that the EU are still convinced this is nothing but a Tory civil war.

    They need to talk outside their own echo chamber.
    Sounds like spot-on analysis to me tbf.
    I'm convinced that the EU don't think we're leaving/or think they can bully is into staying.

    They're used to nations surrendering. They forget that we don't do that.
    Damian Green said yesterday that we want to remain members of Europol. Only EU member states can be members of Europol. It's not surprising they think we don't really want to leave.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,274
    Scott_P said:

    tlg86 said:

    Why does us leaving the EU (I'm not sure seceding is the right word) change anything? Surely the border is a matter for us and Ireland. The EU's only interest is the customs arrangements.

    When (if) we leave the EU, it becomes an external border. Of course they care.
    Yes, but I'm struggling to understand @Dubliner's distinction.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,885

    Mortimer said:

    Very revealing that the EU are still convinced this is nothing but a Tory civil war.

    They need to talk outside their own echo chamber.
    Sounds like spot-on analysis to me tbf.
    I'm convinced that the EU don't think we're leaving/or think they can bully is into staying.

    They're used to nations surrendering. They forget that we don't do that.
    Damian Green said yesterday that we want to remain members of Europol. Only EU member states can be members of Europol. It's not surprising they think we don't really want to leave.
    Damian Green doesn’t want to leave, does he?
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Not going to happen. Brexit as campaigned for has to be seen through to its insular xenophobic conclusion. Only once the implications of that have become apparent to the meanest intellects can positive progress be made.

    Exactly correct Alastair!

    As far as being called a "Remoaner"? I could not care less what people call me.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,520

    Sandpit said:

    Roger said:

    Sean_F said:

    Roger said:

    DavidL said:


    I agree with Alastair (I think) that this is not any particularly clever strategy on the EU's part, it is simply the way that they do things. It is not in fact in their interests but Alastair is correct in pointing out that that obvious fact does not sweep all before it and will not change the mode of operation. They are what they are and it is not easy to herd 27 nations.

    As I said some months ago we need to have a stripped down list of our priorities and some sort of transitional agreement that allows us to sort out the details of other matters later. Like membership itself our relationship with the EU will not be finally resolved by this deal, it will continue to evolve over time becoming closer in some areas and more distant in others.

    Having such a list is not the same as achieving it though. Hammond recently stated the Treasury were making contingency plans for a no deal Brexit. This is only common sense and really should have been started a year ago. The unreality that Alastair describes means a lot of time has been wasted.

    One final thought. It really is time we moved past remainers and leavers. There are no bonus points for I told you so on either side. We, as a country, have some serious work to do to make the best of Brexit. That requires all hands to the pumps. There will be time for the allocation of blame later, if anyone is still interested.


    Your final paragraph is asking for the impossible. Remainers believe Leavers are morons -the evidence of which is muliplying by the day-and thus will do do everything in their powers to reverse a decision which many believe is suicidal.

    And who in their right minds wouldn't try to prevent a suicide......
    If you are correct, then Remainers will remain ineffectual.
    Its more akin to parents , realising that their child is making a terrible marriage choice, but cannot do anything about it... whilst knowing down the line there will be a lot of wreckage to clear up.
    A fissure has been exposed in the country which was little thought about but perfectly illustrated by on one side the Essex man who draped his house in giant flags of the Cross of St George and on the other the politician who tweeted a photo of it.
    Roger, I normally disagree with everything you say, but that is indeed a great metaphor for both what happened, and why.
    I would second that - very succinct
    Advertising people are very good - when they want to be - at summing up what people on all sides are thinking in a few short words.
  • Roger said:

    Scott_P said:
    Surely the English language must have invented or inherited word by now to describe Gove's multiple ratting?
    wiederkehrender Verräter

    A mouthful, but a strangely satisfying one.
    Yes, but disappointing if the Germans don't just roll it up into one compound "wiederkehrenderverräter".

    Verräter is great for traitor though... if only those bloody Normans hadn't corrupted(!) our language with all that French! :lol:
    Lots of good ver- words for the Brexiteers:

    Gove: Verräter
    Davis: Versager
    Boris: Verlogen
    Fox: Verzogen
    May: Verhext
  • I've been away from this place for a few weeks, pop back in and the same people are squabbling over the same boring things. I'd be interested to see the figures re the number of regular contributors, I'm sure they must have dwindled.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,111
    Charles said:

    Re that Mail article - I seriously cannot believe that Messina thought the Tories were going to win 470 seats! Not even the most optimistic predictions on here thought that anything close to that number was likely. Also, it looks like after all of mocking of Momentum (and I'm hardly innocent in this) it looks like they were a pretty effective force in the campaign and that Corbyn's Labour attracting more members really was important after all.

    I would imagine that he included a number of scenarios in his analysis and some one has chosen to leak the "rosy with bells on it" scenario to embarrass Messina. I very much doubt it was his central case.
    Central case at No. 10 at 9.55pm was 40-70 majority.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,970
    tlg86 said:

    Dubliner said:

    TLG86
    I tried to raise this issue in my first posts last week. It seems that PB leavers cannot distinguish between Border arrangements and Custom arrangements. The Border exists, but because of the currents arrangements between the three entities involved (GB, Ireland and the EU), it does not require supervision or policing. On secession that will no longer be the case, and the Border will have to be supervised. Customs arrangements will of course be dependent on the trade deals and particularly on whether GB will remain in a (the) Custom Union.

    Why does us leaving the EU (I'm not sure seceding is the right word) change anything? Surely the border is a matter for us and Ireland. The EU's only interest is the customs arrangements.
    No.
    http://www.europarl.europa.eu/atyourservice/en/displayFtu.html?ftuId=FTU_5.12.4.html
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,111
    Mortimer said:

    Very revealing that the EU are still convinced this is nothing but a Tory civil war.

    They need to talk outside their own echo chamber.
    Sounds like spot-on analysis to me tbf.
    I'm convinced that the EU don't think we're leaving/or think they can bully is into staying.

    They're used to nations surrendering. They forget that we don't do that.
    "We" being Normans, right?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,970

    Mortimer said:

    Very revealing that the EU are still convinced this is nothing but a Tory civil war.

    They need to talk outside their own echo chamber.
    Sounds like spot-on analysis to me tbf.
    I'm convinced that the EU don't think we're leaving/or think they can bully is into staying.

    They're used to nations surrendering. They forget that we don't do that.
    Damian Green said yesterday that we want to remain members of Europol. Only EU member states can be members of Europol. It's not surprising they think we don't really want to leave.
    It would be perfectly possible to replicate those arrangements through agreement, though.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,274
    Nigelb said:

    tlg86 said:

    Dubliner said:

    TLG86
    I tried to raise this issue in my first posts last week. It seems that PB leavers cannot distinguish between Border arrangements and Custom arrangements. The Border exists, but because of the currents arrangements between the three entities involved (GB, Ireland and the EU), it does not require supervision or policing. On secession that will no longer be the case, and the Border will have to be supervised. Customs arrangements will of course be dependent on the trade deals and particularly on whether GB will remain in a (the) Custom Union.

    Why does us leaving the EU (I'm not sure seceding is the right word) change anything? Surely the border is a matter for us and Ireland. The EU's only interest is the customs arrangements.
    No.
    http://www.europarl.europa.eu/atyourservice/en/displayFtu.html?ftuId=FTU_5.12.4.html
    I didn't realise Ireland was in Schengen.

    I think they should worry about other parts of their border first.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited September 2017
    Roger said:

    RobD said:

    Exhibit A: The kind of thing that's easily fixed if negotiations are run in a certain way but not for they are run in an other. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/18/british-expats-face-cliff-edge-in-pensions-and-insurance-after-brexit

    I thought the noises were that agreement had been reached on pensions?

    e.g. - https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/uk-s-expat-pensioners-now-safe-but-will-brexit-mean-deportation-for-others-1.3208135
    I wonder how long it will take the average Brit to notice the little things that will change when we exit? For instance that we can now use our smartphones all over the EU at the same rates we can in the UK.
    They will notice when airlines have trouble booking slots after March 2019 and we lose access via the EU OpenSkies agreement. Also, once we cease being members of EASA all UK aircraft's Airworthniess Certificates expire at their next renewal dates and we have no international treaty to verify UK inspections as standard. Without AC's we are not allowed to fly the aircraft in the airspace of other countries.

    Just one of those little bureaucratic details that do not matter ...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Nigelb said:

    It would be perfectly possible to replicate those arrangements through agreement, though.

    With reduced utility at greater cost. Or "Brexit" as it is known.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,111

    I've been away from this place for a few weeks, pop back in and the same people are squabbling over the same boring things. I'd be interested to see the figures re the number of regular contributors, I'm sure they must have dwindled.

    Boring it may be (Boris boring? Shome mistake..) but it is at the very heart of the nation's future so understandable for a politics-orientated website, surely?

    As to contributors, well I think they come and go with some degree of regularity.
  • Mr. Choose, to be fair, the F1 tipsters all had a good or great race. Mr. Sandpit had a 20something winning tip, Mr. M a 7 winner. Alas, I only had a 4 (and one loss) but came damned close to a 67.
  • Mortimer said:

    Very revealing that the EU are still convinced this is nothing but a Tory civil war.

    They need to talk outside their own echo chamber.
    Sounds like spot-on analysis to me tbf.
    I'm convinced that the EU don't think we're leaving/or think they can bully is into staying.

    They're used to nations surrendering. They forget that we don't do that.
    You need some history lessons.

    1066 and 1688 say hello.
  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    "The Director of Europol is able to enter into agreements for Europol with both countries and international organizations. Europol cooperates on an operational basis with Albania, Australia, Canada, Colombia, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Republic of Macedonia, Monaco, Montenegro, Norway, Serbia, Switzerland, the United States and Interpol."
  • Mr. Choose, to be fair, the F1 tipsters all had a good or great race. Mr. Sandpit had a 20something winning tip, Mr. M a 7 winner. Alas, I only had a 4 (and one loss) but came damned close to a 67.

    I really wish that had been a 68/1 tip, not a 66/1 tip.
  • Mortimer said:

    Very revealing that the EU are still convinced this is nothing but a Tory civil war.

    They need to talk outside their own echo chamber.
    Sounds like spot-on analysis to me tbf.
    I'm convinced that the EU don't think we're leaving/or think they can bully is into staying.

    They're used to nations surrendering. They forget that we don't do that.
    You need some history lessons.

    1066 and 1688 say hello.
    1688 was an invitation.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Harsh verdict on BoZo...

    @IanDunt: Now he's in lame David Miliband school of long carefully worded essay to friendly publication, whose implied conclusion is: I want to be PM.

    But fair.
  • Mortimer said:

    Very revealing that the EU are still convinced this is nothing but a Tory civil war.

    They need to talk outside their own echo chamber.
    Sounds like spot-on analysis to me tbf.
    I'm convinced that the EU don't think we're leaving/or think they can bully is into staying.

    They're used to nations surrendering. They forget that we don't do that.
    You need some history lessons.

    1066 and 1688 say hello.
    1688 was an invitation.
    And 2019 will be an invitation too.
  • PAW said:

    "The Director of Europol is able to enter into agreements for Europol with both countries and international organizations. Europol cooperates on an operational basis with Albania, Australia, Canada, Colombia, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Republic of Macedonia, Monaco, Montenegro, Norway, Serbia, Switzerland, the United States and Interpol."

    Not membership, which is specifically the word Green used.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    Blimey, a seven hundred year old grudge!? I must say from my limited experience in Florence the locals seemed to cover it up pretty well when dealing with we English.
  • TOPPING said:

    I've been away from this place for a few weeks, pop back in and the same people are squabbling over the same boring things. I'd be interested to see the figures re the number of regular contributors, I'm sure they must have dwindled.

    Boring it may be (Boris boring? Shome mistake..) but it is at the very heart of the nation's future so understandable for a politics-orientated website, surely?

    As to contributors, well I think they come and go with some degree of regularity.
    I just find it strange that adults wish to bicker for months on end about the same tedious things without anybody ever changing their mind or offering an alternative view. Mr Smithson must be concerned at the falling number of hits and new members.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,885

    Mortimer said:

    Very revealing that the EU are still convinced this is nothing but a Tory civil war.

    They need to talk outside their own echo chamber.
    Sounds like spot-on analysis to me tbf.
    I'm convinced that the EU don't think we're leaving/or think they can bully is into staying.

    They're used to nations surrendering. They forget that we don't do that.
    You need some history lessons.

    1066 and 1688 say hello.
    And the American War of Independence? Any time in Afghanistan? Singapore 1942? Suez 1956, although IIRC that was called a strategic withdrawal.

    We’ve probably won more than we’ve lost, but we do lose sometimes.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Scott_P said:

    Harsh verdict on BoZo...

    @IanDunt: Now he's in lame David Miliband school of long carefully worded essay to friendly publication, whose implied conclusion is: I want to be PM.

    But fair.

    I am sticking with Douglas Adams "Anyone who really wants to do the job [be leader], should on no account be allowed to do it"
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    I am sticking with Douglas Adams "Anyone who really wants to do the job [be leader], should on no account be allowed to do it"

    https://twitter.com/rbrharrison/status/909711207082414080
  • Jonathan said:

    That Tweet is a peach. David Davis really is an utter buffoon. The only thing that matches his incompetence is his ego. The way Brexit is unfolding owes much to his unique skills.

    Given the way Merkel has called the shots on most serious issues within Europe in recent years, what Davis wrote wasn't that unreasonable. If Merkel had decided she wanted a particular deal with the UK that we found agreeable then that would have almost certainly been the deal we reached.
  • They will notice when airlines have trouble booking slots after March 2019 and we lose access via the EU OpenSkies agreement.

    So will the Cypriot, Maltese, Greek, Italian, Czech, French, Spanish and Portugese tourist businesses, who would suddenly find that demand for their services had collapsed.

    Oddly, this obvious point doesn't seem to have been noticed by the Cypriot, Maltese, Greek, Italian, Czech, French, Spanish and Portugese governments. It is striking that only Ireland seems fully aware of the risks the EU27 countries are running with their negotiation (or non-negotiation) strategy.
  • Mr. Eagles, well, when it loses the odds don't matter ;)

    In 1688, if memory serves (modern stuff isn't my thing) the 'invasion' was invited and desired.

    Mr. Pointer, I think that might be a bit of a silly tweet. In the 14th century, Florence employed on a regular basis the English knight Sir John Hawkwood to commands its mercenary armies. If a city is willing to immediately employ an English mercenary after the 'offence' but grumpy about it when the British PM visits several centuries later, that does rather smack of political bullshit.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,970
    tlg86 said:

    Nigelb said:

    tlg86 said:

    Dubliner said:

    TLG86
    I tried to raise this issue in my first posts last week. It seems that PB leavers cannot distinguish between Border arrangements and Custom arrangements. The Border exists, but because of the currents arrangements between the three entities involved (GB, Ireland and the EU), it does not require supervision or policing. On secession that will no longer be the case, and the Border will have to be supervised. Customs arrangements will of course be dependent on the trade deals and particularly on whether GB will remain in a (the) Custom Union.

    Why does us leaving the EU (I'm not sure seceding is the right word) change anything? Surely the border is a matter for us and Ireland. The EU's only interest is the customs arrangements.
    No.
    http://www.europarl.europa.eu/atyourservice/en/displayFtu.html?ftuId=FTU_5.12.4.html
    I didn't realise Ireland was in Schengen.

    I think they should worry about other parts of their border first.
    Not yet - but Ireland have shown an inclination to join Schengen, prevented by the arrangements with the UK. You can see why the EU think they might have an interest here, even if you don't agree with them.
  • Mortimer said:

    Very revealing that the EU are still convinced this is nothing but a Tory civil war.

    They need to talk outside their own echo chamber.
    Sounds like spot-on analysis to me tbf.
    I'm convinced that the EU don't think we're leaving/or think they can bully is into staying.

    They're used to nations surrendering. They forget that we don't do that.
    You need some history lessons.

    1066 and 1688 say hello.
    And the American War of Independence? Any time in Afghanistan? Singapore 1942? Suez 1956, although IIRC that was called a strategic withdrawal.

    We’ve probably won more than we’ve lost, but we do lose sometimes.
    Once again the best analyst of the psychology of Brexit is relevant - https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/fintan-o-toole-brexit-resurrects-the-english-cult-of-heroic-failure-1.2947706

    Brexit is a perfect vehicle for this zombie cult. It fuses three of the archetypes of heroic English failure.

    There is the last stand, exemplified by Gen George Gordon at Khartoum, another fiasco that quickly became a byword for heroism in the face of inevitable disaster: Brexit is imperial England’s last last stand.

    There is the suicidal cavalry charge: May hilariously threatened Europe that if it does not play nice, she and Boris will destroy its economic artillery with their flashing sabres.

    And there is the doomed expedition into terra incognita to find a promised land. This kind of heroic failure is exemplified by Sir John Franklin’s fatal search for the Northwest Passage in the 1840s.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    I disagree - I think it's different for cars.

    Apparently the boss of JLR doesn't agree with you

    @faisalislam: 4/10 JLR boss tells @Skynews its investment in a massive facility in Slovakia has now become a "de facto hedge" against post-Brexit concerns

    But hey, what does he know. We have had enough of experts, right?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,111

    TOPPING said:

    I've been away from this place for a few weeks, pop back in and the same people are squabbling over the same boring things. I'd be interested to see the figures re the number of regular contributors, I'm sure they must have dwindled.

    Boring it may be (Boris boring? Shome mistake..) but it is at the very heart of the nation's future so understandable for a politics-orientated website, surely?

    As to contributors, well I think they come and go with some degree of regularity.
    I just find it strange that adults wish to bicker for months on end about the same tedious things without anybody ever changing their mind or offering an alternative view. Mr Smithson must be concerned at the falling number of hits and new members.
    We are in a fallow period betting-wise, despite BoJo's manoeuvres. I don't know about you but I pop in to PB de temps en temps for a bit of light-hearted relief and use it as a stream of consciousness outlet for whatever thoughts are meandering around my head at the time.

    But Brexit, that all said, is deadly serious. It will define our nation for the next generation(s). Having had the feelgood fuck you factor of voting Leave, people now understandably want to walk away from the details. But it is in that detail that, well, you know who dwells there.

    So each discussion on a seemingly boring, unimportant, arcane bit of Brexitania is actually critical and vitally important to the nation's well-being.

    Or at least that's why I'm still here.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,056
    Scott_P said:
    I think we should talk a lot more about tax. The carrot in Boris's intervention on Saturday was the traditional Conservative notion of lower taxes. Instead of keeping the "savings" from exiting the EU and using them to improve public services or infrastructure or paying down the Debt and reducing the Interest payments so reducing the Deficit it's the tired old nonsense of "tax cuts".

    I'd be in favour of flat taxes if consumption was based on income. What if what you paid for a loaf of bread, pint of milk or a litre of fuel wasn't based on the cost of the product but on your income ? Your national biometric ID card would contain details of your income and you'd be charged proportionately.

    The corollary is everyone would pay the same levels of tax simplifying the system and saving millions in administration costs which could then be spent on the biometric ID card system.

    I'm going to have a lie-down...

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,274
    Nigelb said:

    tlg86 said:

    Nigelb said:

    tlg86 said:

    Dubliner said:

    TLG86
    I tried to raise this issue in my first posts last week. It seems that PB leavers cannot distinguish between Border arrangements and Custom arrangements. The Border exists, but because of the currents arrangements between the three entities involved (GB, Ireland and the EU), it does not require supervision or policing. On secession that will no longer be the case, and the Border will have to be supervised. Customs arrangements will of course be dependent on the trade deals and particularly on whether GB will remain in a (the) Custom Union.

    Why does us leaving the EU (I'm not sure seceding is the right word) change anything? Surely the border is a matter for us and Ireland. The EU's only interest is the customs arrangements.
    No.
    http://www.europarl.europa.eu/atyourservice/en/displayFtu.html?ftuId=FTU_5.12.4.html
    I didn't realise Ireland was in Schengen.

    I think they should worry about other parts of their border first.
    Not yet - but Ireland have shown an inclination to join Schengen, prevented by the arrangements with the UK. You can see why the EU think they might have an interest here, even if you don't agree with them.
    Well, then I'd suggest the border is an issue for Ireland and the EU.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Why did nobody mention this before?

    @faisalislam: @SkyNews 5/10 Oxford Mini Plant has contingency to increase by 50% levels of stock reqd to run just-in-time manufacturing with 24hr customs delays

    Oh, wait...
  • TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    I've been away from this place for a few weeks, pop back in and the same people are squabbling over the same boring things. I'd be interested to see the figures re the number of regular contributors, I'm sure they must have dwindled.

    Boring it may be (Boris boring? Shome mistake..) but it is at the very heart of the nation's future so understandable for a politics-orientated website, surely?

    As to contributors, well I think they come and go with some degree of regularity.
    I just find it strange that adults wish to bicker for months on end about the same tedious things without anybody ever changing their mind or offering an alternative view. Mr Smithson must be concerned at the falling number of hits and new members.
    We are in a fallow period betting-wise, despite BoJo's manoeuvres. I don't know about you but I pop in to PB de temps en temps for a bit of light-hearted relief and use it as a stream of consciousness outlet for whatever thoughts are meandering around my head at the time.

    But Brexit, that all said, is deadly serious. It will define our nation for the next generation(s). Having had the feelgood fuck you factor of voting Leave, people now understandably want to walk away from the details. But it is in that detail that, well, you know who dwells there.

    So each discussion on a seemingly boring, unimportant, arcane bit of Brexitania is actually critical and vitally important to the nation's well-being.

    Or at least that's why I'm still here.
    It's noteworthy that all the Leavers who thought that Brexit would be awfully fun have decided that it isn't.
  • Mortimer said:

    Very revealing that the EU are still convinced this is nothing but a Tory civil war.

    They need to talk outside their own echo chamber.
    Sounds like spot-on analysis to me tbf.
    I'm convinced that the EU don't think we're leaving/or think they can bully is into staying.

    They're used to nations surrendering. They forget that we don't do that.
    You need some history lessons.

    1066 and 1688 say hello.
    1688 was an invitation.
    The FOAK says

    'The Glorious Revolution, also called the Revolution of 1688, was the overthrow of King James II of England (James VII of Scotland) by a union of English Parliamentarians with the Dutch stadtholder William III, Prince of Orange. William's successful invasion of England with a Dutch fleet and army led to his ascension to the throne as William III of England jointly with his wife, Mary II, James's daughter, after the Declaration of Right, leading to the Bill of Rights 1689.
  • Mr. Glenn, that has all the credibility of Romans decrying 'Punic faith' when Hannibal had the temerity to employ battle tactics.

    Also, the Irish Times might want to note that the Scots, Welsh and Northern Irish all voted too. This wasn't a vote by England, but by the United Kingdom. I'm disinclined to trust a piece of political psychological fantasy written by someone incapable of correctly identifying the country involved.
  • Paddy Power offers 66/1 on Ugo Ehiogu replacing Redknapp

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-41305915
  • Mr. Eagles, well, when it loses the odds don't matter ;)

    In 1688, if memory serves (modern stuff isn't my thing) the 'invasion' was invited and desired.

    Mr. Pointer, I think that might be a bit of a silly tweet. In the 14th century, Florence employed on a regular basis the English knight Sir John Hawkwood to commands its mercenary armies. If a city is willing to immediately employ an English mercenary after the 'offence' but grumpy about it when the British PM visits several centuries later, that does rather smack of political bullshit.

    It does, instead of posting

    Alas, I only had a 4 (and one loss) but came damned close to a 67.

    You would have posted

    Alas, I only had a 4 (and one loss) but came damned close to a 69.

    My inner Finbarr Saunders would have been awoken.
  • Chris Giles is well worth following on Twitter.
  • TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    I've been away from this place for a few weeks, pop back in and the same people are squabbling over the same boring things. I'd be interested to see the figures re the number of regular contributors, I'm sure they must have dwindled.

    Boring it may be (Boris boring? Shome mistake..) but it is at the very heart of the nation's future so understandable for a politics-orientated website, surely?

    As to contributors, well I think they come and go with some degree of regularity.
    I just find it strange that adults wish to bicker for months on end about the same tedious things without anybody ever changing their mind or offering an alternative view. Mr Smithson must be concerned at the falling number of hits and new members.
    We are in a fallow period betting-wise, despite BoJo's manoeuvres. I don't know about you but I pop in to PB de temps en temps for a bit of light-hearted relief and use it as a stream of consciousness outlet for whatever thoughts are meandering around my head at the time.

    But Brexit, that all said, is deadly serious. It will define our nation for the next generation(s). Having had the feelgood fuck you factor of voting Leave, people now understandably want to walk away from the details. But it is in that detail that, well, you know who dwells there.

    So each discussion on a seemingly boring, unimportant, arcane bit of Brexitania is actually critical and vitally important to the nation's well-being.

    Or at least that's why I'm still here.
    Brexit itself isn't boring, its the monotonous, myopic way its discussed on here that is so mind numbingly dull. Each to their own, its all just so futile.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,439
    Mortimer said:

    Very revealing that the EU are still convinced this is nothing but a Tory civil war.

    They need to talk outside their own echo chamber.
    Sounds like spot-on analysis to me tbf.
    I'm convinced that the EU don't think we're leaving/or think they can bully is into staying.

    They're used to nations surrendering. They forget that we don't do that.
    The vast majority of the people on here would... ;)
  • They will notice when airlines have trouble booking slots after March 2019 and we lose access via the EU OpenSkies agreement.

    So will the Cypriot, Maltese, Greek, Italian, Czech, French, Spanish and Portugese tourist businesses, who would suddenly find that demand for their services had collapsed.

    Oddly, this obvious point doesn't seem to have been noticed by the Cypriot, Maltese, Greek, Italian, Czech, French, Spanish and Portugese governments. It is striking that only Ireland seems fully aware of the risks the EU27 countries are running with their negotiation (or non-negotiation) strategy.
    The Brexit process so far has seen political considerations trump economic self-interest on both the UK and EU sides. That may change, but at the moment there is absolutely no sign of it.

    If the EU put economic interests first it would not have dealt with the Greek crisis in the way it did.
  • Mr. Glenn, that has all the credibility of Romans decrying 'Punic faith' when Hannibal had the temerity to employ battle tactics.

    Also, the Irish Times might want to note that the Scots, Welsh and Northern Irish all voted too. This wasn't a vote by England, but by the United Kingdom. I'm disinclined to trust a piece of political psychological fantasy written by someone incapable of correctly identifying the country involved.

    Not to mention that expeditions into terra incognita to find promised lands were a spectacular success for Britain.
  • The Brexit process so far has seen political considerations trump economic self-interest on both the UK and EU sides. That may change, but at the moment there is absolutely no sign of it.

    If the EU put economic interests first it would not have dealt with the Greek crisis in the way it did.

    The Greek crisis hardly affected any single country other than Greece, and perhaps Cyprus. This will very badly hit a string of smaller EU countries - you know, those ones that have a vote. It will also hit Germany and the other export-led Northern European countries, albeit to a manageable extent. Overall, yes, it is probably true that the hit to the EU27 in aggregate wouldn't be too bad, but that isn't much consolation if you are the Maltese or Irish government.
This discussion has been closed.