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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first voting poll since TMay’s “not a quitter” assertion h

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  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,215

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Despite...

    2006: 4.3
    2009: 4.7
    2013: 4.9
    2016: 5.1 (January)
    2016: 5.3 (September)
    2017: 6.3

    A 6.3 implies a 10 fold amplitude increase over the previous test, with the energy released (assuming the conditions of the test were similiar) being to the power 1.5 means the test was 31 times as powerful as the last test, and 1000 times the power of the 2006 1st test..

    They wouldn't be the first to explode a very big fission bomb in a bid to impress the yanks....
    The bods that be reckon it is around 100 kilotons, ~ 5 times Nagasaki yield or thereabouts.
    So easily still a fission bomb.....
    Forgive my ignorance but is that thing Kim and co. are pictured with actually big enough to be a nuclear bomb? I assume so, but in my naivety I hadn't realised how compact they can be.

    As the Donald might say: Scary!
    When we were having an interesting discussion on here about WWII planes being able to deliver 10 tonne bombs 70 years ago there is absolutely no need for miniaturisation for that purpose. But the point of this one is that it is supposed to be capable of being on one of their missiles which have been shown to be capable of reaching Japan if not the US.

    I suspect in reality they are quite a long way from being capable of delivering a nuclear device by an accurate missile that will explode at the right time. But like Saddam they are certainly playing up the uncertainty factor.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    Charles said:

    stodge said:

    Mr. B, yeah. Just like the tax question. Taxes should go up for the rich to pay for vital services, where 'the rich' are people who earn more than me, and 'vital services' are ones that I use.

    There' s a much deeper question and that's how capitalism operates. Two examples from the week's news - Sky TV gouging an Alzheimer's sufferer for money for Broadband and other services he doesn't have and can't use and 888's huge fine for not doing enough to help problem gamblers.

    To take the latter first and it's not surprising bookmakers are courting the support of MPs. They are frankly parasites and their High Street FOBTs are despicable. Gambling is a serious addiction yet whereas we try with smoking to warn people of the risks, successive Governments have liberalised gambling. The shops in East Ham open from 8am to 10pm and are places where I see people spending all day every day.

    As for the former, companies need to be in the forefront of promoting a more caring and compassionate capitalism and not just paying lip service to customer service charters. Some firms are no doubt very good at this but there are others (and I suspect it's employees given unreasonable sales targets) who take the opportunity to prey on the vulnerable. That cannot be condoned.

    How would you propose Sky should have figured out he had Alzheimer's?
    The bank I work for has in the past two years introduced a lot of mandatory staff training on identifying and supporting vulnerable customers. I don't say they get it right all the time, and there have certainly been terrible incidents in the past but at least they are making an effort. I wonder how much training the Sky sales teams get? - it can be done.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    edited September 2017
    HYUFD said:

    The key reason the Tories are on 38% in this Survation poll is that UKIP are on 4%, up 3% on the 1% they got at the last general election. The priority for the Tories then must be to squeeze back the UKIP vote, if they did that they would be on 41% and would then only need to take 1% from Labour to be back to level pegging.

    Been drinking some of that wishful-thinking brew again?

    (I can spot it, 'cos I do it myself occasionally :lol:)
  • HYUFD said:

    The key reason the Tories are on 38% in this Survation poll is that UKIP are on 4%, up 3% on the 1% they got at the last general election. The priority for the Tories then must be to squeeze back the UKIP vote, if they did that they would be on 41% and would then only need to take 1% from Labour to be back to level pegging.

    Utter nonsense. The priority for the Tories is not the 4% of the population that 'may be squeezed' but the 58% of the nation that is neither voting Tory nor UKIP. A vote won off Labour is worth two votes from anyone else and there are a lot more of them that can be swung. Address housing, the NHS, education etc - don't go banging on about immigrants or whatever that the purple BNP now bang on about now that Brexit is real.
  • HYUFD said:

    The key reason the Tories are on 38% in this Survation poll is that UKIP are on 4%, up 3% on the 1% they got at the last general election. The priority for the Tories then must be to squeeze back the UKIP vote, if they did that they would be on 41% and would then only need to take 1% from Labour to be back to level pegging.

    Been drinking some of that wishful-thinking brew again?

    (I can spot it, 'cos I do it myself occasionally :lol:)
    Like your bracketted comment
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,215

    While May is under attack from many* in her own party, a special poll on leadership by BritainThinks, published in the Observer, finds that far more people believe the prime minister will get the best deal for Britain out of Brexit negotiations (46%) than think Corbyn would (25%).

    https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/02/tory-mps-threaten-theresa-may-over-brexit-votes

    * Only Soubry named...

    The Grauniad is probably including all the PB tories who keep slating her in their 'many' :smile:
    Morning Ben - thought you were on your way to your cruise. Go and have a great sail, (I am sure we will all be here when you return), and come back refreshed by the pleasure of spending time at sea , being well fed and looked after
    Ah yes - we board at 3pm at Southampton, which is only 90 mins away from us, so Mrs Pointer is currently packing. It's our first cruise so we are slightly unsure as to whether we will like it but most people who have actually done one seem to be positive. Looking foreward to it. Thanks!
    We have enjoyed over 10 cruises varying from the Med , Vancouver to Beijing, Antarctica with ice landings, Norway, Iceland, Greenland, experienced wonderful sunsets and sunrises, seen the most amazing wildlife, been in hurricane seas for days on end, sailed seven days in total daylight, and yet never tire of being on board. May have something to do with our families connection with the sea over generations but you will have a great time I am sure
    Have to say that being stuck on a boat in hurricane seas for days strikes me as hell. 45 years ago now I was on a ferry from Hamburg to Hull overnight in what turned out to be one of the worst summer storms in 100 years (no doubt winter ones are even worse). It is not an episode I recall with affection although it was undeniably dramatic and memorable.

    Last week I went to Holland and back and other than wash the highest waves I saw were about a foot. That was fine.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,103
    edited September 2017

    HYUFD said:

    The key reason the Tories are on 38% in this Survation poll is that UKIP are on 4%, up 3% on the 1% they got at the last general election. The priority for the Tories then must be to squeeze back the UKIP vote, if they did that they would be on 41% and would then only need to take 1% from Labour to be back to level pegging.

    Utter nonsense. The priority for the Tories is not the 4% of the population that 'may be squeezed' but the 58% of the nation that is neither voting Tory nor UKIP. A vote won off Labour is worth two votes from anyone else and there are a lot more of them that can be swung. Address housing, the NHS, education etc - don't go banging on about immigrants or whatever that the purple BNP now bang on about now that Brexit is real.
    Housing, NHS, student fees and young people must be the conservatives top priority together with dealing with the fat cats, both in the public and private sectors, to achieve the centre ground and win in 2022
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,215

    HYUFD said:

    The key reason the Tories are on 38% in this Survation poll is that UKIP are on 4%, up 3% on the 1% they got at the last general election. The priority for the Tories then must be to squeeze back the UKIP vote, if they did that they would be on 41% and would then only need to take 1% from Labour to be back to level pegging.

    Utter nonsense. The priority for the Tories is not the 4% of the population that 'may be squeezed' but the 58% of the nation that is neither voting Tory nor UKIP. A vote won off Labour is worth two votes from anyone else and there are a lot more of them that can be swung. Address housing, the NHS, education etc - don't go banging on about immigrants or whatever that the purple BNP now bang on about now that Brexit is real.
    Housing, NHS, student fees and young people must be the conservatives top priority together with dealing with the fat cats, both in the public and private sectors, to achieve the centre ground and win in 2022
    Completely agree.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    stodge said:

    Mr. B, yeah. Just like the tax question. Taxes should go up for the rich to pay for vital services, where 'the rich' are people who earn more than me, and 'vital services' are ones that I use.

    There' s a much deeper question and that's how capitalism operates. Two examples from the week's news - Sky TV gouging an Alzheimer's sufferer for money for Broadband and other services he doesn't have and can't use and 888's huge fine for not doing enough to help problem gamblers.

    To take the latter first and it's not surprising bookmakers are courting the support of MPs. They are frankly parasites and their High Street FOBTs are despicable. Gambling is a serious addiction yet whereas we try with smoking to warn people of the risks, successive Governments have liberalised gambling. The shops in East Ham open from 8am to 10pm and are places where I see people spending all day every day.

    As for the former, companies need to be in the forefront of promoting a more caring and compassionate capitalism and not just paying lip service to customer service charters. Some firms are no doubt very good at this but there are others (and I suspect it's employees given unreasonable sales targets) who take the opportunity to prey on the vulnerable. That cannot be condoned.

    How would you propose Sky should have figured out he had Alzheimer's?
    The bank I work for has in the past two years introduced a lot of mandatory staff training on identifying and supporting vulnerable customers. I don't say they get it right all the time, and there have certainly been terrible incidents in the past but at least they are making an effort. I wonder how much training the Sky sales teams get? - it can be done.
    Sure it can be done. But as I understand it he ordered the package (and used it) for 2 years before he was diagnosed.

    I suppose you could argue that if a subscription product is not used for 12 months then companies should have a duty to revalidate the customer's needs, but in absence of a legal obligation that would be quite a burden for a company to voluntarily assume
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    DavidL said:

    While May is under attack from many* in her own party, a special poll on leadership by BritainThinks, published in the Observer, finds that far more people believe the prime minister will get the best deal for Britain out of Brexit negotiations (46%) than think Corbyn would (25%).

    https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/02/tory-mps-threaten-theresa-may-over-brexit-votes

    * Only Soubry named...

    The Grauniad is probably including all the PB tories who keep slating her in their 'many' :smile:
    Morning Ben - thought you were on your way to your cruise. Go and have a great sail, (I am sure we will all be here when you return), and come back refreshed by the pleasure of spending time at sea , being well fed and looked after
    Ah yes - we board at 3pm at Southampton, which is only 90 mins away from us, so Mrs Pointer is currently packing. It's our first cruise so we are slightly unsure as to whether we will like it but most people who have actually done one seem to be positive. Looking foreward to it. Thanks!
    We have enjoyed over 10 cruises varying from the Med , Vancouver to Beijing, Antarctica with ice landings, Norway, Iceland, Greenland, experienced wonderful sunsets and sunrises, seen the most amazing wildlife, been in hurricane seas for days on end, sailed seven days in total daylight, and yet never tire of being on board. May have something to do with our families connection with the sea over generations but you will have a great time I am sure
    Have to say that being stuck on a boat in hurricane seas for days strikes me as hell. 45 years ago now I was on a ferry from Hamburg to Hull overnight in what turned out to be one of the worst summer storms in 100 years (no doubt winter ones are even worse). It is not an episode I recall with affection although it was undeniably dramatic and memorable.

    Last week I went to Holland and back and other than wash the highest waves I saw were about a foot. That was fine.
    Yes we've done a few very rough channel crossings in our past (once stuck outside Dover for 3 hours waiting for the waves to die sufficiently). But generally we don't get too seasick (fingers-crossed!).

    If you'd asked me years ago, a cruise would not have been on my list but most people who have actually done one seem to like them (including a few friends who are recent converts, which has swayed us).

    Good grief, we'll be considering caravanning next! (Oh - apparently not, according to Mrs. P!)
  • DavidL said:

    While May is under attack from many* in her own party, a special poll on leadership by BritainThinks, published in the Observer, finds that far more people believe the prime minister will get the best deal for Britain out of Brexit negotiations (46%) than think Corbyn would (25%).

    https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/02/tory-mps-threaten-theresa-may-over-brexit-votes

    * Only Soubry named...

    The Grauniad is probably including all the PB tories who keep slating her in their 'many' :smile:
    Morning Ben - thought you were on your way to your cruise. Go and have a great sail, (I am sure we will all be here when you return), and come back refreshed by the pleasure of spending time at sea , being well fed and looked after
    Ah yes - we board at 3pm at Southampton, which is only 90 mins away from us, so Mrs Pointer is currently packing. It's our first cruise so we are slightly unsure as to whether we will like it but most people who have actually done one seem to be positive. Looking foreward to it. Thanks!
    We have enjoyed over 10 cruises varying from the Med , Vancouver to Beijing, Antarctica with ice landings, Norway, Iceland, Greenland, experienced wonderful sunsets and sunrises, seen the most amazing wildlife, been in hurricane seas for days on end, sailed seven days in total daylight, and yet never tire of being on board. May have something to do with our families connection with the sea over generations but you will have a great time I am sure
    Have to say that being stuck on a boat in hurricane seas for days strikes me as hell. 45 years ago now I was on a ferry from Hamburg to Hull overnight in what turned out to be one of the worst summer storms in 100 years (no doubt winter ones are even worse). It is not an episode I recall with affection although it was undeniably dramatic and memorable.

    Last week I went to Holland and back and other than wash the highest waves I saw were about a foot. That was fine.
    The hurricane seas were on our trip to the Southern Ocean but we did have a rough passage back from Greenland across the Atlantic as we tried to stay in front of a very deep depression. Also we had an unbelievable ferry crossing from Zeebrugge to Hull many years ago when the captain took the ship up to the Norwegian coast before turning for Hull. Most passengers stayed on their bunks but we enjoyed a goood breakfast in between the ships pitching and rolling.

    However, not to cause alarm to Ben most sailings only experience a gentle swell due to modern ships stabilisers
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    stodge said:

    Mr. B, yeah. Just like the tax question. Taxes should go up for the rich to pay for vital services, where 'the rich' are people who earn more than me, and 'vital services' are ones that I use.

    There' s a much deeper question and that's how capitalism operates. Two examples from the week's news - Sky TV gouging an Alzheimer's sufferer for money for Broadband and other services he doesn't have and can't use and 888's huge fine for not doing enough to help problem gamblers.

    To take the latter first and it's not surprising bookmakers are courting the support of MPs. They are frankly parasites and their High Street FOBTs are despicable. Gambling is a serious addiction yet whereas we try with smoking to warn people of the risks, successive Governments have liberalised gambling. The shops in East Ham open from 8am to 10pm and are places where I see people spending all day every day.

    As for the former, companies need to be in the forefront of promoting a more caring and compassionate capitalism and not just paying lip service to customer service charters. Some firms are no doubt very good at this but there are others (and I suspect it's employees given unreasonable sales targets) who take the opportunity to prey on the vulnerable. That cannot be condoned.

    How would you propose Sky should have figured out he had Alzheimer's?
    The bank I work for has in the past two years introduced a lot of mandatory staff training on identifying and supporting vulnerable customers. I don't say they get it right all the time, and there have certainly been terrible incidents in the past but at least they are making an effort. I wonder how much training the Sky sales teams get? - it can be done.
    Sure it can be done. But as I understand it he ordered the package (and used it) for 2 years before he was diagnosed.

    I suppose you could argue that if a subscription product is not used for 12 months then companies should have a duty to revalidate the customer's needs, but in absence of a legal obligation that would be quite a burden for a company to voluntarily assume
    Yes, fair enough - I don't know the individual circumstances and there are often two sides, but free market capitalism encourages all sorts of exploitation.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,215

    DavidL said:

    We have enjoyed over 10 cruises varying from the Med , Vancouver to Beijing, Antarctica with ice landings, Norway, Iceland, Greenland, experienced wonderful sunsets and sunrises, seen the most amazing wildlife, been in hurricane seas for days on end, sailed seven days in total daylight, and yet never tire of being on board. May have something to do with our families connection with the sea over generations but you will have a great time I am sure
    Have to say that being stuck on a boat in hurricane seas for days strikes me as hell. 45 years ago now I was on a ferry from Hamburg to Hull overnight in what turned out to be one of the worst summer storms in 100 years (no doubt winter ones are even worse). It is not an episode I recall with affection although it was undeniably dramatic and memorable.

    Last week I went to Holland and back and other than wash the highest waves I saw were about a foot. That was fine.
    Yes we've done a few very rough channel crossings in our past (once stuck outside Dover for 3 hours waiting for the waves to die sufficiently). But generally we don't get too seasick (fingers-crossed!).

    If you'd asked me years ago, a cruise would not have been on my list but most people who have actually done one seem to like them (including a few friends who are recent converts, which has swayed us).

    Good grief, we'll be considering caravanning next! (Oh - apparently not, according to Mrs. P!)
    I think we are waiting until its just me and my better half. Taking grown kids on a cruise really doesn't appeal.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,215

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    stodge said:

    Mr. B, yeah. Just like the tax question. Taxes should go up for the rich to pay for vital services, where 'the rich' are people who earn more than me, and 'vital services' are ones that I use.

    There' s a much deeper question and that's how capitalism operates. Two examples from the week's news - Sky TV gouging an Alzheimer's sufferer for money for Broadband and other services he doesn't have and can't use and 888's huge fine for not doing enough to help problem gamblers.

    To take the latter first and it's not surprising bookmakers are courting the support of MPs. They are frankly parasites and their High Street FOBTs are despicable. Gambling is a serious addiction yet whereas we try with smoking to warn people of the risks, successive Governments have liberalised gambling. The shops in East Ham open from 8am to 10pm and are places where I see people spending all day every day.

    As for the former, companies need to be in the forefront of promoting a more caring and compassionate capitalism and not just paying lip service to customer service charters. Some firms are no doubt very good at this but there are others (and I suspect it's employees given unreasonable sales targets) who take the opportunity to prey on the vulnerable. That cannot be condoned.

    How would you propose Sky should have figured out he had Alzheimer's?
    The bank I work for has in the past two years introduced a lot of mandatory staff training on identifying and supporting vulnerable customers. I don't say they get it right all the time, and there have certainly been terrible incidents in the past but at least they are making an effort. I wonder how much training the Sky sales teams get? - it can be done.
    Sure it can be done. But as I understand it he ordered the package (and used it) for 2 years before he was diagnosed.

    I suppose you could argue that if a subscription product is not used for 12 months then companies should have a duty to revalidate the customer's needs, but in absence of a legal obligation that would be quite a burden for a company to voluntarily assume
    Yes, fair enough - I don't know the individual circumstances and there are often two sides, but free market capitalism encourages all sorts of exploitation.
    There must be clues you could pick up on. Like tuning into Mrs Brown's Boys, for example.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    We have enjoyed over 10 cruises varying from the Med , Vancouver to Beijing, Antarctica with ice landings, Norway, Iceland, Greenland, experienced wonderful sunsets and sunrises, seen the most amazing wildlife, been in hurricane seas for days on end, sailed seven days in total daylight, and yet never tire of being on board. May have something to do with our families connection with the sea over generations but you will have a great time I am sure
    Have to say that being stuck on a boat in hurricane seas for days strikes me as hell. 45 years ago now I was on a ferry from Hamburg to Hull overnight in what turned out to be one of the worst summer storms in 100 years (no doubt winter ones are even worse). It is not an episode I recall with affection although it was undeniably dramatic and memorable.

    Last week I went to Holland and back and other than wash the highest waves I saw were about a foot. That was fine.
    Yes we've done a few very rough channel crossings in our past (once stuck outside Dover for 3 hours waiting for the waves to die sufficiently). But generally we don't get too seasick (fingers-crossed!).

    If you'd asked me years ago, a cruise would not have been on my list but most people who have actually done one seem to like them (including a few friends who are recent converts, which has swayed us).

    Good grief, we'll be considering caravanning next! (Oh - apparently not, according to Mrs. P!)
    I think we are waiting until its just me and my better half. Taking grown kids on a cruise really doesn't appeal.
    Er no, but if they're grown up can't you leave them behind?
  • Mr. L, the laugh is like a seal pup being machine-gunned. It's bloody horrendous,
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,215

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    We have enjoyed over 10 cruises varying from the Med , Vancouver to Beijing, Antarctica with ice landings, Norway, Iceland, Greenland, experienced wonderful sunsets and sunrises, seen the most amazing wildlife, been in hurricane seas for days on end, sailed seven days in total daylight, and yet never tire of being on board. May have something to do with our families connection with the sea over generations but you will have a great time I am sure
    Have to say that being stuck on a boat in hurricane seas for days strikes me as hell. 45 years ago now I was on a ferry from Hamburg to Hull overnight in what turned out to be one of the worst summer storms in 100 years (no doubt winter ones are even worse). It is not an episode I recall with affection although it was undeniably dramatic and memorable.

    Last week I went to Holland and back and other than wash the highest waves I saw were about a foot. That was fine.
    Yes we've done a few very rough channel crossings in our past (once stuck outside Dover for 3 hours waiting for the waves to die sufficiently). But generally we don't get too seasick (fingers-crossed!).

    If you'd asked me years ago, a cruise would not have been on my list but most people who have actually done one seem to like them (including a few friends who are recent converts, which has swayed us).

    Good grief, we'll be considering caravanning next! (Oh - apparently not, according to Mrs. P!)
    I think we are waiting until its just me and my better half. Taking grown kids on a cruise really doesn't appeal.
    Er no, but if they're grown up can't you leave them behind?
    One is only 14. Not far away now.
  • How long will Trump's Chief of Staff endure the hardest job he has ever done?


    "The question now is how long Mr. Kelly will stay, with estimates ranging from a month to a year at the most."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/01/us/politics/john-kelly-trump.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    DavidL said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    stodge said:

    Mr. B, yeah. Just like the tax question. Taxes should go up for the rich to pay for vital services, where 'the rich' are people who earn more than me, and 'vital services' are ones that I use.

    There' s a much deeper question and that's how capitalism operates. Two examples from the week's news - Sky TV gouging an Alzheimer's sufferer for money for Broadband and other services he doesn't have and can't use and 888's huge fine for not doing enough to help problem gamblers.

    To take the latter first and it's not surprising bookmakers are courting the support of MPs. They are frankly parasites and their High Street FOBTs are despicable. Gambling is a serious addiction yet whereas we try with smoking to warn people of the risks, successive Governments have liberalised gambling. The shops in East Ham open from 8am to 10pm and are places where I see people spending all day every day.

    As for the former, companies need to be in the forefront of promoting a more caring and compassionate capitalism and not just paying lip service to customer service charters. Some firms are no doubt very good at this but there are others (and I suspect it's employees given unreasonable sales targets) who take the opportunity to prey on the vulnerable. That cannot be condoned.

    How would you propose Sky should have figured out he had Alzheimer's?
    The bank I work for has in the past two years introduced a lot of mandatory staff training on identifying and supporting vulnerable customers. I don't say they get it right all the time, and there have certainly been terrible incidents in the past but at least they are making an effort. I wonder how much training the Sky sales teams get? - it can be done.
    Sure it can be done. But as I understand it he ordered the package (and used it) for 2 years before he was diagnosed.

    I suppose you could argue that if a subscription product is not used for 12 months then companies should have a duty to revalidate the customer's needs, but in absence of a legal obligation that would be quite a burden for a company to voluntarily assume
    Yes, fair enough - I don't know the individual circumstances and there are often two sides, but free market capitalism encourages all sorts of exploitation.
    There must be clues you could pick up on. Like tuning into Mrs Brown's Boys, for example.
    That's on freeview - I daren't tell you how I know that :lol:
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682

    HYUFD said:

    The key reason the Tories are on 38% in this Survation poll is that UKIP are on 4%, up 3% on the 1% they got at the last general election. The priority for the Tories then must be to squeeze back the UKIP vote, if they did that they would be on 41% and would then only need to take 1% from Labour to be back to level pegging.

    Utter nonsense. The priority for the Tories is not the 4% of the population that 'may be squeezed' but the 58% of the nation that is neither voting Tory nor UKIP. A vote won off Labour is worth two votes from anyone else and there are a lot more of them that can be swung. Address housing, the NHS, education etc - don't go banging on about immigrants or whatever that the purple BNP now bang on about now that Brexit is real.
    No you are sprouting nonsense. The Tories won 42% at the last general election and are now on 38% down 4% while UKIP are on 4% up 3% on the last general election so the priority must be to regain that 3% to get the Tories back over 40%.

    Labour got 40% at the last general election and only a percentage or two of those will likely even consider switching to the Tories next time and most of those will be Labour Leavers who want free movement to end and backed Labour last time when he promised Labour would do so and would not do so again if he promised to let it continue unchecked next time.

    Of course ending free movement also reduces pressure on housing, public services etc.

    The other potential gains from Labour will be those who switched to them over the dementia tax and who voted Tory in 2015, those voters can be won back by scrapping the dementia tax and emphasising Corbyn and McDonnell would reverse Osborne's inheritance tax cut
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,849
    DavidL said:

    While May is under attack from many* in her own party, a special poll on leadership by BritainThinks, published in the Observer, finds that far more people believe the prime minister will get the best deal for Britain out of Brexit negotiations (46%) than think Corbyn would (25%).

    https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/02/tory-mps-threaten-theresa-may-over-brexit-votes

    * Only Soubry named...

    The Grauniad is probably including all the PB tories who keep slating her in their 'many' :smile:
    Morning Ben - thought you were on your way to your cruise. Go and have a great sail, (I am sure we will all be here when you return), and come back refreshed by the pleasure of spending time at sea , being well fed and looked after
    Ah yes - we board at 3pm at Southampton, which is only 90 mins away from us, so Mrs Pointer is currently packing. It's our first cruise so we are slightly unsure as to whether we will like it but most people who have actually done one seem to be positive. Looking foreward to it. Thanks!
    We have enjoyed over 10 cruises varying from the Med , Vancouver to Beijing, Antarctica with ice landings, Norway, Iceland, Greenland, experienced wonderful sunsets and sunrises, seen the most amazing wildlife, been in hurricane seas for days on end, sailed seven days in total daylight, and yet never tire of being on board. May have something to do with our families connection with the sea over generations but you will have a great time I am sure
    Have to say that being stuck on a boat in hurricane seas for days strikes me as hell. 45 years ago now I was on a ferry from Hamburg to Hull overnight in what turned out to be one of the worst summer storms in 100 years (no doubt winter ones are even worse). It is not an episode I recall with affection although it was undeniably dramatic and memorable.

    Last week I went to Holland and back and other than wash the highest waves I saw were about a foot. That was fine.
    The worst sea state I ever saw was in the North sea when I was doing my watchkeeping certificate on a T23. Sea State 9 for over 9 hours with about 2,5m visibility. Even the old salts were losing their customary sangfroid. Carriers were much more civilised as we drove around the weather.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    edited September 2017

    HYUFD said:

    The key reason the Tories are on 38% in this Survation poll is that UKIP are on 4%, up 3% on the 1% they got at the last general election. The priority for the Tories then must be to squeeze back the UKIP vote, if they did that they would be on 41% and would then only need to take 1% from Labour to be back to level pegging.

    Been drinking some of that wishful-thinking brew again?

    (I can spot it, 'cos I do it myself occasionally :lol:)
    It is a fact though, if Labour was on 38% and say the Greens on 4% I would equally advise Corbyn to squeeze the Green vote first but he has already successfully done that
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    stodge said:

    Mr. B, yeah. Just like the tax question. Taxes should go up for the rich to pay for vital services, where 'the rich' are people who earn more than me, and 'vital services' are ones that I use.

    There' s a much deeper question and that's how capitalism operates. Two examples from the week's news - Sky TV gouging an Alzheimer's sufferer for money for Broadband and other services he doesn't have and can't use and 888's huge fine for not doing enough to help problem gamblers.

    To take the latter first and it's not surprising bookmakers are courting the support of MPs. They are frankly parasites and their High Street FOBTs are despicable. Gambling is a serious addiction yet whereas we try with smoking to warn people of the risks, successive Governments have liberalised gambling. The shops in East Ham open from 8am to 10pm and are places where I see people spending all day every day.

    As for the former, companies need to be in the forefront of promoting a more caring and compassionate capitalism and not just paying lip service to customer service charters. Some firms are no doubt very good at this but there are others (and I suspect it's employees given unreasonable sales targets) who take the opportunity to prey on the vulnerable. That cannot be condoned.

    How would you propose Sky should have figured out he had Alzheimer's?
    The bank I work for has in the past two years introduced a lot of mandatory staff training on identifying and supporting vulnerable customers. I don't say they get it right all the time, and there have certainly been terrible incidents in the past but at least they are making an effort. I wonder how much training the Sky sales teams get? - it can be done.
    Sure it can be done. But as I understand it he ordered the package (and used it) for 2 years before he was diagnosed.

    I suppose you could argue that if a subscription product is not used for 12 months then companies should have a duty to revalidate the customer's needs, but in absence of a legal obligation that would be quite a burden for a company to voluntarily assume
    Yes, fair enough - I don't know the individual circumstances and there are often two sides, but free market capitalism encourages all sorts of exploitation.
    Unlike state control where there is no corruption, exploitation, or human rights violations and everyone is happy - Maduro/Kim /Castro rules ok!
  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    edited September 2017
    We could position a trident submarine along the track of a missile fired from NK, and put a nuclear bomb on Brussels with plausible denialability - just a suggestion.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    edited September 2017

    HYUFD said:

    The key reason the Tories are on 38% in this Survation poll is that UKIP are on 4%, up 3% on the 1% they got at the last general election. The priority for the Tories then must be to squeeze back the UKIP vote, if they did that they would be on 41% and would then only need to take 1% from Labour to be back to level pegging.

    Utter nonsense. The priority for the Tories is not the 4% of the population that 'may be squeezed' but the 58% of the nation that is neither voting Tory nor UKIP. A vote won off Labour is worth two votes from anyone else and there are a lot more of them that can be swung. Address housing, the NHS, education etc - don't go banging on about immigrants or whatever that the purple BNP now bang on about now that Brexit is real.
    Housing, NHS, student fees and young people must be the conservatives top priority together with dealing with the fat cats, both in the public and private sectors, to achieve the centre ground and win in 2022
    Who is the only Tory promising to increase public sector pay for nurses and the police and teachers etc? Boris

    Which Tory polls best with UKIP voters? Boris

    He kills two birds with one stone
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,885
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The key reason the Tories are on 38% in this Survation poll is that UKIP are on 4%, up 3% on the 1% they got at the last general election. The priority for the Tories then must be to squeeze back the UKIP vote, if they did that they would be on 41% and would then only need to take 1% from Labour to be back to level pegging.

    Utter nonsense. The priority for the Tories is not the 4% of the population that 'may be squeezed' but the 58% of the nation that is neither voting Tory nor UKIP. A vote won off Labour is worth two votes from anyone else and there are a lot more of them that can be swung. Address housing, the NHS, education etc - don't go banging on about immigrants or whatever that the purple BNP now bang on about now that Brexit is real.
    Housing, NHS, student fees and young people must be the conservatives top priority together with dealing with the fat cats, both in the public and private sectors, to achieve the centre ground and win in 2022
    Who is the only Tory promising to increase public sector pay for nurses and the police and teachers etc? Boris

    Which Tory polls best with UKIP voters? Boris

    He kills two birds with one stone
    Yes, but you can’t believe a word he says!
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    edited September 2017
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The key reason the Tories are on 38% in this Survation poll is that UKIP are on 4%, up 3% on the 1% they got at the last general election. The priority for the Tories then must be to squeeze back the UKIP vote, if they did that they would be on 41% and would then only need to take 1% from Labour to be back to level pegging.

    Been drinking some of that wishful-thinking brew again?

    (I can spot it, 'cos I do it myself occasionally :lol:)
    It is a fact though, if Labour was on 38% and say the Greens on 4% I would equally advise Corbyn to squeeze the Green vote first but he has already successfully done that
    The problem is that there is not an automatic Tory 2nd pref for UKIP voters, as we saw at the GE. Where uKIP collapsed, the Tories benefited, but by much less than they expected, as many Kippers reverted to former Labour voting.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    felix said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    stodge said:

    Mr. B, yeah. Just like the tax question. Taxes should go up for the rich to pay for vital services, where 'the rich' are people who earn more than me, and 'vital services' are ones that I use.

    There' s a much deeper question and that's how capitalism operates. Two examples from the week's news - Sky TV gouging an Alzheimer's sufferer for money for Broadband and other services he doesn't have and can't use and 888's huge fine for not doing enough to help problem gamblers.

    To take the latter first and it's not surprising bookmakers are courting the support of MPs. They are frankly parasites and their High Street FOBTs are despicable. Gambling is a serious addiction yet whereas we try with smoking to warn people of the risks, successive Governments have liberalised gambling. The shops in East Ham open from 8am to 10pm and are places where I see people spending all day every day.

    As for the former, companies need to be in the forefront of promoting a more caring and compassionate capitalism and not just paying lip service to customer service charters. Some firms are no doubt very good at this but there are others (and I suspect it's employees given unreasonable sales targets) who take the opportunity to prey on the vulnerable. That cannot be condoned.

    How would you propose Sky should have figured out he had Alzheimer's?
    The bank I work for has in the past two years introduced a lot of mandatory staff training on identifying and supporting vulnerable customers. I don't say they get it right all the time, and there have certainly been terrible incidents in the past but at least they are making an effort. I wonder how much training the Sky sales teams get? - it can be done.
    Sure it can be done. But as I understand it he ordered the package (and used it) for 2 years before he was diagnosed.

    I suppose you could argue that if a subscription product is not used for 12 months then companies should have a duty to revalidate the customer's needs, but in absence of a legal obligation that would be quite a burden for a company to voluntarily assume
    Yes, fair enough - I don't know the individual circumstances and there are often two sides, but free market capitalism encourages all sorts of exploitation.
    Unlike state control where there is no corruption, exploitation, or human rights violations and everyone is happy - Maduro/Kim /Castro rules ok!
    Yes indeed and of course those are the only two options - all or nothing. Oh, wait...
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    The key reason the Tories are on 38% in this Survation poll is that UKIP are on 4%, up 3% on the 1% they got at the last general election. The priority for the Tories then must be to squeeze back the UKIP vote, if they did that they would be on 41% and would then only need to take 1% from Labour to be back to level pegging.

    UKIP actually got 1.8% - but only contested circa 350 seats.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,215
    Dura_Ace said:

    DavidL said:

    While May is under attack from many* in her own party, a special poll on leadership by BritainThinks, published in the Observer, finds that far more people believe the prime minister will get the best deal for Britain out of Brexit negotiations (46%) than think Corbyn would (25%).

    https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/02/tory-mps-threaten-theresa-may-over-brexit-votes

    * Only Soubry named...

    The Grauniad is probably including all the PB tories who keep slating her in their 'many' :smile:
    Morning Ben - thought you were on your way to your cruise. Go and have a great sail, (I am sure we will all be here when you return), and come back refreshed by the pleasure of spending time at sea , being well fed and looked after
    Ah yes - we board at 3pm at Southampton, which is only 90 mins away from us, so Mrs Pointer is currently packing. It's our first cruise so we are slightly unsure as to whether we will like it but most people who have actually done one seem to be positive. Looking foreward to it. Thanks!
    Have to say that being stuck on a boat in hurricane seas for days strikes me as hell. 45 years ago now I was on a ferry from Hamburg to Hull overnight in what turned out to be one of the worst summer storms in 100 years (no doubt winter ones are even worse). It is not an episode I recall with affection although it was undeniably dramatic and memorable.

    Last week I went to Holland and back and other than wash the highest waves I saw were about a foot. That was fine.
    The worst sea state I ever saw was in the North sea when I was doing my watchkeeping certificate on a T23. Sea State 9 for over 9 hours with about 2,5m visibility. Even the old salts were losing their customary sangfroid. Carriers were much more civilised as we drove around the weather.
    We must have been something like sea state 9. It was a huge ferry, maybe 10 decks, and the front quarter of the boat was actually coming out of the sea and then falling into it again with waves sweeping over the top deck. It was awesome to see but not a lot of fun for a sea sick person like me. We must have had about 9-10 hours of it too as it went on all night. I am sure Ben's cruise will be nothing like that of course.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    edited September 2017
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The key reason the Tories are on 38% in this Survation poll is that UKIP are on 4%, up 3% on the 1% they got at the last general election. The priority for the Tories then must be to squeeze back the UKIP vote, if they did that they would be on 41% and would then only need to take 1% from Labour to be back to level pegging.

    Been drinking some of that wishful-thinking brew again?

    (I can spot it, 'cos I do it myself occasionally :lol:)
    It is a fact though, if Labour was on 38% and say the Greens on 4% I would equally advise Corbyn to squeeze the Green vote first but he has already successfully done that

    Labour will win the next GE by squeezing the tory vote further and getting more young people to vote. Simple as that.

    (Health warning - I'm only guessing - who knows?!)
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Same old arguments on show today here.


    @afneil
    Negotiators! Trying to cherrypick!! How very dare they. It'll never catch on.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    DavidL said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    DavidL said:

    While May is under attack from many* in her own party, a special poll on leadership by BritainThinks, published in the Observer, finds that far more people believe the prime minister will get the best deal for Britain out of Brexit negotiations (46%) than think Corbyn would (25%).

    https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/02/tory-mps-threaten-theresa-may-over-brexit-votes

    * Only Soubry named...

    The Grauniad is probably including all the PB tories who keep slating her in their 'many' :smile:
    Morning Ben - thought you were on your way to your cruise. Go and have a great sail, (I am sure we will all be here when you return), and come back refreshed by the pleasure of spending time at sea , being well fed and looked after
    Ah yes - we board at 3pm at Southampton, which is only 90 mins away from us, so Mrs Pointer is currently packing. It's our first cruise so we are slightly unsure as to whether we will like it but most people who have actually done one seem to be positive. Looking foreward to it. Thanks!
    Have to say that being stuck on a boat in hurricane seas for days strikes me as hell. 45 years ago now I was on a ferry from Hamburg to Hull overnight in what turned out to be one of the worst summer storms in 100 years (no doubt winter ones are even worse). It is not an episode I recall with affection although it was undeniably dramatic and memorable.

    Last week I went to Holland and back and other than wash the highest waves I saw were about a foot. That was fine.
    The worst sea state I ever saw was in the North sea when I was doing my watchkeeping certificate on a T23. Sea State 9 for over 9 hours with about 2,5m visibility. Even the old salts were losing their customary sangfroid. Carriers were much more civilised as we drove around the weather.
    We must have been something like sea state 9. It was a huge ferry, maybe 10 decks, and the front quarter of the boat was actually coming out of the sea and then falling into it again with waves sweeping over the top deck. It was awesome to see but not a lot of fun for a sea sick person like me. We must have had about 9-10 hours of it too as it went on all night. I am sure Ben's cruise will be nothing like that of course.
    Hee hee - feeling queasy already!

    In reality though, if I get sick it will probably be too much rich food!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,215

    DavidL said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    DavidL said:

    While May is under attack from many* in her own party, a special poll on leadership by BritainThinks, published in the Observer, finds that far more people believe the prime minister will get the best deal for Britain out of Brexit negotiations (46%) than think Corbyn would (25%).

    https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/02/tory-mps-threaten-theresa-may-over-brexit-votes

    * Only Soubry named...

    The Grauniad is probably including all the PB tories who keep slating her in their 'many' :smile:
    Morning Ben - thought you were on your way to your cruise. Go and have a great sail, (I am sure we will all be here when you return), and come back refreshed by the pleasure of spending time at sea , being well fed and looked after
    Ah yes - we board at 3pm at Southampton, which is only 90 mins away from us, so Mrs Pointer is currently packing. It's our first cruise so we are slightly unsure as to whether we will like it but most people who have actually done one seem to be positive. Looking foreward to it. Thanks!
    Have to say that being stuck on a boat in hurricane seas for days strikes me as hell. 45 years ago now I was on a ferry from Hamburg to Hull overnight in what turned out to be one of the worst summer storms in 100 years (no doubt winter ones are even worse). It is not an episode I recall with affection although it was undeniably dramatic and memorable.

    Last week I went to Holland and back and other than wash the highest waves I saw were about a foot. That was fine.
    The worst sea state I ever saw was in the North sea when I was doing my watchkeeping certificate on a T23. Sea State 9 for over 9 hours with about 2,5m visibility. Even the old salts were losing their customary sangfroid. Carriers were much more civilised as we drove around the weather.
    We must have been something like sea state 9. It was a huge ferry, maybe 10 decks, and the front quarter of the boat was actually coming out of the sea and then falling into it again with waves sweeping over the top deck. It was awesome to see but not a lot of fun for a sea sick person like me. We must have had about 9-10 hours of it too as it went on all night. I am sure Ben's cruise will be nothing like that of course.
    Hee hee - feeling queasy already!

    In reality though, if I get sick it will probably be too much rich food!
    Have a great time.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The key reason the Tories are on 38% in this Survation poll is that UKIP are on 4%, up 3% on the 1% they got at the last general election. The priority for the Tories then must be to squeeze back the UKIP vote, if they did that they would be on 41% and would then only need to take 1% from Labour to be back to level pegging.

    Utter nonsense. The priority for the Tories is not the 4% of the population that 'may be squeezed' but the 58% of the nation that is neither voting Tory nor UKIP. A vote won off Labour is worth two votes from anyone else and there are a lot more of them that can be swung. Address housing, the NHS, education etc - don't go banging on about immigrants or whatever that the purple BNP now bang on about now that Brexit is real.
    Housing, NHS, student fees and young people must be the conservatives top priority together with dealing with the fat cats, both in the public and private sectors, to achieve the centre ground and win in 2022
    Who is the only Tory promising to increase public sector pay for nurses and the police and teachers etc? Boris

    Which Tory polls best with UKIP voters? Boris

    He kills two birds with one stone
    Yes, but you can’t believe a word he says!
    Ideally suited to lead the Cons then! :lol:
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The key reason the Tories are on 38% in this Survation poll is that UKIP are on 4%, up 3% on the 1% they got at the last general election. The priority for the Tories then must be to squeeze back the UKIP vote, if they did that they would be on 41% and would then only need to take 1% from Labour to be back to level pegging.

    Been drinking some of that wishful-thinking brew again?

    (I can spot it, 'cos I do it myself occasionally :lol:)
    It is a fact though, if Labour was on 38% and say the Greens on 4% I would equally advise Corbyn to squeeze the Green vote first but he has already successfully done that

    Labour will win the next GE by squeezing the tory vote further and getting more young people to vote. Simple as that.

    (Health warning - I'm only guessing - who knows?!)
    I would expect the Tory vote share to fall back next time with some loss to both the LibDems and UKIP.In addition, a fair number of 2017 Tory voters will simply stay away.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    DavidL said:

    The Grauniad is probably including all the PB tories who keep slating her in their 'many' :smile:
    Morning Ben - thought you were on your way to your cruise. Go and have a great sail, (I am sure we will all be here when you return), and come back refreshed by the pleasure of spending time at sea , being well fed and looked after
    Ah yes - we board at 3pm at Southampton, which is only 90 mins away from us, so Mrs Pointer is currently packing. It's our first cruise so we are slightly unsure as to whether we will like it but most people who have actually done one seem to be positive. Looking foreward to it. Thanks!
    Have to say that being stuck on a boat in hurricane seas for days strikes me as hell. 45 years ago now I was on a ferry from Hamburg to Hull overnight in what turned out to be one of the worst summer storms in 100 years (no doubt winter ones are even worse). It is not an episode I recall with affection although it was undeniably dramatic and memorable.

    Last week I went to Holland and back and other than wash the highest waves I saw were about a foot. That was fine.
    The worst sea state I ever saw was in the North sea when I was doing my watchkeeping certificate on a T23. Sea State 9 for over 9 hours with about 2,5m visibility. Even the old salts were losing their customary sangfroid. Carriers were much more civilised as we drove around the weather.
    We must have been something like sea state 9. It was a huge ferry, maybe 10 decks, and the front quarter of the boat was actually coming out of the sea and then falling into it again with waves sweeping over the top deck. It was awesome to see but not a lot of fun for a sea sick person like me. We must have had about 9-10 hours of it too as it went on all night. I am sure Ben's cruise will be nothing like that of course.
    Hee hee - feeling queasy already!

    In reality though, if I get sick it will probably be too much rich food!
    Have a great time.
    Thanks, will do.

    And here's hoping Kim and Donald haven't fried us all by the time we get back!
  • Torby_FennelTorby_Fennel Posts: 438
    edited September 2017


    If you'd asked me years ago, a cruise would not have been on my list but most people who have actually done one seem to like them (including a few friends who are recent converts, which has swayed us).

    Good grief, we'll be considering caravanning next! (Oh - apparently not, according to Mrs. P!)

    My grandad and my late grandma used to love going on cruises. They saw so much and enjoyed it every time. Even to this day my grandad, now almost 90, talks very fondly about those memories. He's tried to persuade me that I might enjoy a cruise but I told him that it's not an option for me because I get very seasick on any boat. I can't even handle standing up on a cross channel ferry! His reply to that is "Oh, not on a cruise. You don't see anyone feeling ill on a cruise ship". I'm convinced that's more to do with the fact that people prone to sea sickness don't choose cruising holidays to begin with. ;) But who knows?

    Anyway, I hope you have a terrific time. :D

    By the way... when I was a kid in the 1980s we always went on caravaning holidays. Great memories! :D

  • DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    The key reason the Tories are on 38% in this Survation poll is that UKIP are on 4%, up 3% on the 1% they got at the last general election. The priority for the Tories then must be to squeeze back the UKIP vote, if they did that they would be on 41% and would then only need to take 1% from Labour to be back to level pegging.

    Utter nonsense. The priority for the Tories is not the 4% of the population that 'may be squeezed' but the 58% of the nation that is neither voting Tory nor UKIP. A vote won off Labour is worth two votes from anyone else and there are a lot more of them that can be swung. Address housing, the NHS, education etc - don't go banging on about immigrants or whatever that the purple BNP now bang on about now that Brexit is real.
    Housing, NHS, student fees and young people must be the conservatives top priority together with dealing with the fat cats, both in the public and private sectors, to achieve the centre ground and win in 2022
    Completely agree.
    +1
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The key reason the Tories are on 38% in this Survation poll is that UKIP are on 4%, up 3% on the 1% they got at the last general election. The priority for the Tories then must be to squeeze back the UKIP vote, if they did that they would be on 41% and would then only need to take 1% from Labour to be back to level pegging.

    Utter nonsense. The priority for the Tories is not the 4% of the population that 'may be squeezed' but the 58% of the nation that is neither voting Tory nor UKIP. A vote won off Labour is worth two votes from anyone else and there are a lot more of them that can be swung. Address housing, the NHS, education etc - don't go banging on about immigrants or whatever that the purple BNP now bang on about now that Brexit is real.
    Housing, NHS, student fees and young people must be the conservatives top priority together with dealing with the fat cats, both in the public and private sectors, to achieve the centre ground and win in 2022
    Who is the only Tory promising to increase public sector pay for nurses and the police and teachers etc? Boris

    Which Tory polls best with UKIP voters? Boris

    He kills two birds with one stone
    Yes, but you can’t believe a word he says!
    Well so what, the same pretty much applies to Corbyn!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    edited September 2017

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The key reason the Tories are on 38% in this Survation poll is that UKIP are on 4%, up 3% on the 1% they got at the last general election. The priority for the Tories then must be to squeeze back the UKIP vote, if they did that they would be on 41% and would then only need to take 1% from Labour to be back to level pegging.

    Been drinking some of that wishful-thinking brew again?

    (I can spot it, 'cos I do it myself occasionally :lol:)
    It is a fact though, if Labour was on 38% and say the Greens on 4% I would equally advise Corbyn to squeeze the Green vote first but he has already successfully done that
    The problem is that there is not an automatic Tory 2nd pref for UKIP voters, as we saw at the GE. Where uKIP collapsed, the Tories benefited, but by much less than they expected, as many Kippers reverted to former Labour voting.
    There are even a few Green to Tory voters believe it or not (my sister being one who voted Green in 2015 and Tory in 2017) but most clearly prefer Labour and of the fall in the Green vote from 3.8% in 2015 to 1.6% in 2017 most of it went to Corbyn

    However while Corbyn did indeed manage to win 20% of 2015 UKIP voters the Tories won over 50% of 2015 UKIP voters so the fact remains that more UKIP voters would switch to the Tories than would switch to Labour
  • HYUFD said:

    The key reason the Tories are on 38% in this Survation poll is that UKIP are on 4%, up 3% on the 1% they got at the last general election. The priority for the Tories then must be to squeeze back the UKIP vote, if they did that they would be on 41% and would then only need to take 1% from Labour to be back to level pegging.

    Utter nonsense. The priority for the Tories is not the 4% of the population that 'may be squeezed' but the 58% of the nation that is neither voting Tory nor UKIP. A vote won off Labour is worth two votes from anyone else and there are a lot more of them that can be swung. Address housing, the NHS, education etc - don't go banging on about immigrants or whatever that the purple BNP now bang on about now that Brexit is real.
    Housing, NHS, student fees and young people must be the conservatives top priority together with dealing with the fat cats, both in the public and private sectors, to achieve the centre ground and win in 2022
    Housing - situation made worse by Cameron and Osborne
    NHS - situation made worse by Cameron and Osborne
    Student fees - situation made worse by Cameron and Osborne
    Young people - situation made worse by Cameron and Osborne
    Fatcats - situation made worse by Cameron and Osborne

    You were warned, repeatedly.

    Yet Conservative supporters here ra-ra-raad as Cameron and Osborne shifted the Conservatives from promoting aspiration to defending privilege.
  • While May is under attack from many* in her own party, a special poll on leadership by BritainThinks, published in the Observer, finds that far more people believe the prime minister will get the best deal for Britain out of Brexit negotiations (46%) than think Corbyn would (25%).

    https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/02/tory-mps-threaten-theresa-may-over-brexit-votes

    * Only Soubry named...

    The Grauniad is probably including all the PB tories who keep slating her in their 'many' :smile:
    Morning Ben - thought you were on your way to your cruise. Go and have a great sail, (I am sure we will all be here when you return), and come back refreshed by the pleasure of spending time at sea , being well fed and looked after
    Ah yes - we board at 3pm at Southampton, which is only 90 mins away from us, so Mrs Pointer is currently packing. It's our first cruise so we are slightly unsure as to whether we will like it but most people who have actually done one seem to be positive. Looking foreward to it. Thanks!
    Bin voyage! Who are you sailing with?
    P and O - adventurous eh! :wink:
    Fun! Haven't sailed on them (not counting British India 45 years ago!) - I'm told the atmosphere can vary quite a lot between ships. If it's a bit "lively" I'm a big Cunard fan - especially a trans Atlantic
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The key reason the Tories are on 38% in this Survation poll is that UKIP are on 4%, up 3% on the 1% they got at the last general election. The priority for the Tories then must be to squeeze back the UKIP vote, if they did that they would be on 41% and would then only need to take 1% from Labour to be back to level pegging.

    Been drinking some of that wishful-thinking brew again?

    (I can spot it, 'cos I do it myself occasionally :lol:)
    It is a fact though, if Labour was on 38% and say the Greens on 4% I would equally advise Corbyn to squeeze the Green vote first but he has already successfully done that

    Labour will win the next GE by squeezing the tory vote further and getting more young people to vote. Simple as that.

    (Health warning - I'm only guessing - who knows?!)
    Why? The Tories still won 42% last time despite an abysmal campaign and the vast majority of those voted Tory in large part to keep Corbyn out, with most of the rest doing so in large part to deliver Brexit. Youth turnout in 2017 was already significantly up on 2015 and Corbyn still lost
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The key reason the Tories are on 38% in this Survation poll is that UKIP are on 4%, up 3% on the 1% they got at the last general election. The priority for the Tories then must be to squeeze back the UKIP vote, if they did that they would be on 41% and would then only need to take 1% from Labour to be back to level pegging.

    Been drinking some of that wishful-thinking brew again?

    (I can spot it, 'cos I do it myself occasionally :lol:)
    It is a fact though, if Labour was on 38% and say the Greens on 4% I would equally advise Corbyn to squeeze the Green vote first but he has already successfully done that

    Labour will win the next GE by squeezing the tory vote further and getting more young people to vote. Simple as that.

    (Health warning - I'm only guessing - who knows?!)
    I would expect the Tory vote share to fall back next time with some loss to both the LibDems and UKIP.In addition, a fair number of 2017 Tory voters will simply stay away.
    Why? Any dieheard Tory Remainers will already have switched to the LDs in 2017 if they were going to do so and if the Tories deliver a Brexit which ends free movement why would those voters switch back to UKIP if they risk letting Corbyn in and continuing free movement for years?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    stodge said:

    Mr. B, yeah. Just like the tax question. Taxes should go up for the rich to pay for vital services, where 'the rich' are people who earn more than me, and 'vital services' are ones that I use.

    There' s a much deeper question and that's how capitalism operates. Two examples from the week's news - Sky TV gouging an Alzheimer's sufferer for money for Broadband and other services he doesn't have and can't use and 888's huge fine for not doing enough to help problem gamblers.

    To take the latter first and it's not surprising bookmakers are courting the support of MPs. They are frankly parasites and their High Street FOBTs are despicable. Gambling is a serious addiction yet whereas we try with smoking to warn people of the risks, successive Governments have liberalised gambling. The shops in East Ham open from 8am to 10pm and are places where I see people spending all day every day.

    As for the former, companies need to be in the forefront of promoting a more caring and compassionate capitalism and not just paying lip service to customer service charters. Some firms are no doubt very good at this but there are others (and I suspect it's employees given unreasonable sales targets) who take the opportunity to prey on the vulnerable. That cannot be condoned.

    How would you propose Sky should have figured out he had Alzheimer's?
    The bank I work for has in the past two years introduced a lot of mandatory staff training on identifying and supporting vulnerable customers. I don't say they get it right all the time, and there have certainly been terrible incidents in the past but at least they are making an effort. I wonder how much training the Sky sales teams get? - it can be done.
    Sure it can be done. But as I understand it he ordered the package (and used it) for 2 years before he was diagnosed.

    I suppose you could argue that if a subscription product is not used for 12 months then companies should have a duty to revalidate the customer's needs, but in absence of a legal obligation that would be quite a burden for a company to voluntarily assume
    Yes, fair enough - I don't know the individual circumstances and there are often two sides, but free market capitalism encourages all sorts of exploitation.
    So does socialism.

    The commonality? Human beings.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    edited September 2017

    HYUFD said:

    The key reason the Tories are on 38% in this Survation poll is that UKIP are on 4%, up 3% on the 1% they got at the last general election. The priority for the Tories then must be to squeeze back the UKIP vote, if they did that they would be on 41% and would then only need to take 1% from Labour to be back to level pegging.

    Utter nonsense. The priority for the Tories is not the 4% of the population that 'may be squeezed' but the 58% of the nation that is neither voting Tory nor UKIP. A vote won off Labour is worth two votes from anyone else and there are a lot more of them that can be swung. Address housing, the NHS, education etc - don't go banging on about immigrants or whatever that the purple BNP now bang on about now that Brexit is real.
    Housing, NHS, student fees and young people must be the conservatives top priority together with dealing with the fat cats, both in the public and private sectors, to achieve the centre ground and win in 2022
    Housing - situation made worse by Cameron and Osborne
    NHS - situation made worse by Cameron and Osborne
    Student fees - situation made worse by Cameron and Osborne
    Young people - situation made worse by Cameron and Osborne
    Fatcats - situation made worse by Cameron and Osborne

    You were warned, repeatedly.

    Yet Conservative supporters here ra-ra-raad as Cameron and Osborne shifted the Conservatives from promoting aspiration to defending privilege.
    It is now no surprise that the Tory who polls worst against Corbyn (according to last month's Survation), Hammond, is also the senior Tory most closely backed by Osborne. Apart from his inheritance tax cut there isn't much Osborne was promoting Corbyn could not capitalise on in June 2017

  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The key reason the Tories are on 38% in this Survation poll is that UKIP are on 4%, up 3% on the 1% they got at the last general election. The priority for the Tories then must be to squeeze back the UKIP vote, if they did that they would be on 41% and would then only need to take 1% from Labour to be back to level pegging.

    Been drinking some of that wishful-thinking brew again?

    (I can spot it, 'cos I do it myself occasionally :lol:)
    It is a fact though, if Labour was on 38% and say the Greens on 4% I would equally advise Corbyn to squeeze the Green vote first but he has already successfully done that

    Labour will win the next GE by squeezing the tory vote further and getting more young people to vote. Simple as that.

    (Health warning - I'm only guessing - who knows?!)
    I would expect the Tory vote share to fall back next time with some loss to both the LibDems and UKIP.In addition, a fair number of 2017 Tory voters will simply stay away.
    Why? Any dieheard Tory Remainers will already have switched to the LDs in 2017 if they were going to do so and if the Tories deliver a Brexit which ends free movement why would those voters switch back to UKIP if they risk letting Corbyn in and continuing free movement for years?
    It's justin. Because short straws.

  • If you'd asked me years ago, a cruise would not have been on my list but most people who have actually done one seem to like them (including a few friends who are recent converts, which has swayed us).

    Good grief, we'll be considering caravanning next! (Oh - apparently not, according to Mrs. P!)

    "Oh, not on a cruise. You don't see anyone feeling ill on a cruise ship". I'm convinced that's more to do with the fact that people prone to sea sickness don't choose cruising holidays to begin with. ;) But who knows?
    Agree with your grandfather- cruise ships are generally much bigger and slower- and (with one exception - the Trans Atlantic) have itinerary and timetable flexibility- unlike a ferry which has to try to keep to time - so they hammer on through bad weather, unlike a cruise ship which can slow down or sail round bad weather. On the Trans Atlantic the QM2 has vast reserves of speed so can slow down in bad weather and speed up to catch up later.
  • Dura_Ace said:


    The worst sea state I ever saw was in the North sea when I was doing my watchkeeping certificate on a T23. Sea State 9 for over 9 hours with about 2,5m visibility. Even the old salts were losing their customary sangfroid. Carriers were much more civilised as we drove around the weather.

    My last tour offshore in October 2013 was on the Wil Phoenix West of Shetlands. She was one of the old pacesetter rigs which bobbed like a cork. She would heave around 30-35 ft over a period of about 10-15 seconds.

    When we worked the Byford Dolphin in the Norwegian Sea we had a tradition whereby whenever we got into really bad weather and all work stopped we would congregate in the TV room which was in one of the pontoon legs and watch Perfect Storm. The added effect of the rig heaving up and down added a certain something to the film.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    I would expect the Tory vote share to fall back next time with some loss to both the LibDems and UKIP.In addition, a fair number of 2017 Tory voters will simply stay away.

    Why? Any dieheard Tory Remainers will already have switched to the LDs in 2017 if they were going to do so and if the Tories deliver a Brexit which ends free movement why would those voters switch back to UKIP if they risk letting Corbyn in and continuing free movement for years?
    Really? The present Conservative Government is now so incompetent, hard-hearted and generally dire, that even a Corbyn government might be an improvement. This particular threat is losing its power.

    You Tories need to find another strategy.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    PClipp said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    I would expect the Tory vote share to fall back next time with some loss to both the LibDems and UKIP.In addition, a fair number of 2017 Tory voters will simply stay away.

    Why? Any dieheard Tory Remainers will already have switched to the LDs in 2017 if they were going to do so and if the Tories deliver a Brexit which ends free movement why would those voters switch back to UKIP if they risk letting Corbyn in and continuing free movement for years?
    Really? The present Conservative Government is now so incompetent, hard-hearted and generally dire, that even a Corbyn government might be an improvement. This particular threat is losing its power.

    You Tories need to find another strategy.
    Did you vote Tory in 2017? No.

    42% did and keeping them is the priority and adding a few 2015 Tories who went to Labour over the dementia tax and a few Labour Leave voters who stuck with Corbyn in 2017
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,215

    HYUFD said:

    Housing, NHS, student fees and young people must be the conservatives top priority together with dealing with the fat cats, both in the public and private sectors, to achieve the centre ground and win in 2022
    Housing - situation made worse by Cameron and Osborne
    NHS - situation made worse by Cameron and Osborne
    Student fees - situation made worse by Cameron and Osborne
    Young people - situation made worse by Cameron and Osborne
    Fatcats - situation made worse by Cameron and Osborne

    You were warned, repeatedly.

    Yet Conservative supporters here ra-ra-raad as Cameron and Osborne shifted the Conservatives from promoting aspiration to defending privilege.
    Just one example: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/housing-starts-and-completions-hit-7-year-high
    Of course there is more to do but housing is affected by both supply and demand and it is hardly surprising that post 2008 demand for houses for purchase fell off a cliff. Government policies have tried to address that as well as suppressing the BTL market. These are both good things.

    How has protecting and indeed increasing the NHS budget made things worse? The reforms do seem to have reduced admin costs in the NHS, albeit at a price and are now settled down.

    Osborne significantly increased the tax take from fat cats both in absolute terms and as a share of the overall tax.

    The one area where things have gone backward is student fees which are both too high and now having an excessive interest rate applied to them. As a result a significant proportion of the young are going into adult life already carrying their first mortgage. This is bad for them and, I fear, bad for the country going forward.

    But you always moan that the deficit was not addressed more aggressively. Its hard to see how addressing that is compatible with such a wish.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    edited September 2017
    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The key reason the Tories are on 38% in this Survation poll is that UKIP are on 4%, up 3% on the 1% they got at the last general election. The priority for the Tories then must be to squeeze back the UKIP vote, if they did that they would be on 41% and would then only need to take 1% from Labour to be back to level pegging.

    Been drinking some of that wishful-thinking brew again?

    (I can spot it, 'cos I do it myself occasionally :lol:)
    It is a fact though, if Labour was on 38% and say the Greens on 4% I would equally advise Corbyn to squeeze the Green vote first but he has already successfully done that

    Labour will win the next GE by squeezing the tory vote further and getting more young people to vote. Simple as that.

    (Health warning - I'm only guessing - who knows?!)
    I would expect the Tory vote share to fall back next time with some loss to both the LibDems and UKIP.In addition, a fair number of 2017 Tory voters will simply stay away.
    Why? Any dieheard Tory Remainers will already have switched to the LDs in 2017 if they were going to do so and if the Tories deliver a Brexit which ends free movement why would those voters switch back to UKIP if they risk letting Corbyn in and continuing free movement for years?
    It's justin. Because short straws.
    Yes, the usual


  • Agree with your grandfather- cruise ships are generally much bigger and slower- and (with one exception - the Trans Atlantic) have itinerary and timetable flexibility- unlike a ferry which has to try to keep to time - so they hammer on through bad weather, unlike a cruise ship which can slow down or sail round bad weather. On the Trans Atlantic the QM2 has vast reserves of speed so can slow down in bad weather and speed up to catch up later.

    You and my grandad may well both be correct. But it's still too much of gamble to part with that kind of money if there's a chance I'd find the experience hellish. ;)

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    stodge said:

    Mr. B, yeah. Just like the tax question. Taxes should go up for the rich to pay for vital services, where 'the rich' are people who earn more than me, and 'vital services' are ones that I use.

    There' s a much deeper question and that's how capitalism operates. Two examples from the week's news - Sky TV gouging an Alzheimer's sufferer for money for Broadband and other services he doesn't have and can't use and 888's huge fine for not doing enough to help problem gamblers.

    To take the latter first and it's not surprising bookmakers are courting the support of MPs. They are frankly parasites and their High Street FOBTs are despicable. Gambling is a serious addiction yet whereas we try with smoking to warn people of the risks, successive Governments have liberalised gambling. The shops in East Ham open from 8am to 10pm and are places where I see people spending all day every day.

    As for the former, companies need to be in the forefront of promoting a more caring and compassionate capitalism and not just paying lip service to customer service charters. Some firms are no doubt very good at this but there are others (and I suspect it's employees given unreasonable sales targets) who take the opportunity to prey on the vulnerable. That cannot be condoned.

    How would you propose Sky should have figured out he had Alzheimer's?
    The bank I work for has in the past two years introduced a lot of mandatory staff training on identifying and supporting vulnerable customers. I don't say they get it right all the time, and there have certainly been terrible incidents in the past but at least they are making an effort. I wonder how much training the Sky sales teams get? - it can be done.
    Sure it can be done. But as I understand it he ordered the package (and used it) for 2 years before he was diagnosed.

    I suppose you could argue that if a subscription product is not used for 12 months then companies should have a duty to revalidate the customer's needs, but in absence of a legal obligation that would be quite a burden for a company to voluntarily assume
    Yes, fair enough - I don't know the individual circumstances and there are often two sides, but free market capitalism encourages all sorts of exploitation.
    Your argument seems to be "the facts don't support me but I'm still right!" ...

    (It is also why we have regulated market capitalism rather than free market capitalism...)
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    We have enjoyed over 10 cruises varying from the Med , Vancouver to Beijing, Antarctica with ice landings, Norway, Iceland, Greenland, experienced wonderful sunsets and sunrises, seen the most amazing wildlife, been in hurricane seas for days on end, sailed seven days in total daylight, and yet never tire of being on board. May have something to do with our families connection with the sea over generations but you will have a great time I am sure
    Have to say that being stuck on a boat in hurricane seas for days strikes me as hell. 45 years ago now I was on a ferry from Hamburg to Hull overnight in what turned out to be one of the worst summer storms in 100 years (no doubt winter ones are even worse). It is not an episode I recall with affection although it was undeniably dramatic and memorable.

    Last week I went to Holland and back and other than wash the highest waves I saw were about a foot. That was fine.
    Yes we've done a few very rough channel crossings in our past (once stuck outside Dover for 3 hours waiting for the waves to die sufficiently). But generally we don't get too seasick (fingers-crossed!).

    If you'd asked me years ago, a cruise would not have been on my list but most people who have actually done one seem to like them (including a few friends who are recent converts, which has swayed us).

    Good grief, we'll be considering caravanning next! (Oh - apparently not, according to Mrs. P!)
    I think we are waiting until its just me and my better half. Taking grown kids on a cruise really doesn't appeal.
    Er no, but if they're grown up can't you leave them behind?
    One is only 14. Not far away now.
    We've only ever done a crossing (to young for a cruise!) but dressing up for dinner in the same restaurant with a limited menu got old very quickly
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The key reason the Tories are on 38% in this Survation poll is that UKIP are on 4%, up 3% on the 1% they got at the last general election. The priority for the Tories then must be to squeeze back the UKIP vote, if they did that they would be on 41% and would then only need to take 1% from Labour to be back to level pegging.

    Been drinking some of that wishful-thinking brew again?

    (I can spot it, 'cos I do it myself occasionally :lol:)
    It is a fact though, if Labour was on 38% and say the Greens on 4% I would equally advise Corbyn to squeeze the Green vote first but he has already successfully done that

    Labour will win the next GE by squeezing the tory vote further and getting more young people to vote. Simple as that.

    (Health warning - I'm only guessing - who knows?!)
    I would expect the Tory vote share to fall back next time with some loss to both the LibDems and UKIP.In addition, a fair number of 2017 Tory voters will simply stay away.
    Why? Any dieheard Tory Remainers will already have switched to the LDs in 2017 if they were going to do so and if the Tories deliver a Brexit which ends free movement why would those voters switch back to UKIP if they risk letting Corbyn in and continuing free movement for years?
    It's justin. Because short straws.
    Sorry I forgot that you read the polls at the last election so much better than I did. My repeated suggestions that many of the polls were likely to be exaggerating the Tory lead did turn out to be pure fantasy on my part.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    justin124 said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The key reason the Tories are on 38% in this Survation poll is that UKIP are on 4%, up 3% on the 1% they got at the last general election. The priority for the Tories then must be to squeeze back the UKIP vote, if they did that they would be on 41% and would then only need to take 1% from Labour to be back to level pegging.

    Been drinking some of that wishful-thinking brew again?

    (I can spot it, 'cos I do it myself occasionally :lol:)
    It is a fact though, if Labour was on 38% and say the Greens on 4% I would equally advise Corbyn to squeeze the Green vote first but he has already successfully done that

    Labour will win the next GE by squeezing the tory vote further and getting more young people to vote. Simple as that.

    (Health warning - I'm only guessing - who knows?!)
    I would expect the Tory vote share to fall back next time with some loss to both the LibDems and UKIP.In addition, a fair number of 2017 Tory voters will simply stay away.
    Why? Any dieheard Tory Remainers will already have switched to the LDs in 2017 if they were going to do so and if the Tories deliver a Brexit which ends free movement why would those voters switch back to UKIP if they risk letting Corbyn in and continuing free movement for years?
    It's justin. Because short straws.
    Sorry I forgot that you read the polls at the last election so much better than I did. My repeated suggestions that many of the polls were likely to be exaggerating the Tory lead did turn out to be pure fantasy on my part.
    You also said Brexit wouldn't matter to a future election. What did the BES study indicate?

    You seem to think history is an indicator of the future. The idea that UKIP vote will rise is hilarious. More likely the party will have disappeared.
  • Charles said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    We have enjoyed over 10 cruises varying from the Med , Vancouver to Beijing, Antarctica with ice landings, Norway, Iceland, Greenland, experienced wonderful sunsets and sunrises, seen the most amazing wildlife, been in hurricane seas for days on end, sailed seven days in total daylight, and yet never tire of being on board. May have something to do with our families connection with the sea over generations but you will have a great time I am sure
    Have to say that being stuck on a boat in hurricane seas for days strikes me as hell. 45 years ago now I was on a ferry from Hamburg to Hull overnight in what turned out to be one of the worst summer storms in 100 years (no doubt winter ones are even worse). It is not an episode I recall with affection although it was undeniably dramatic and memorable.

    Last week I went to Holland and back and other than wash the highest waves I saw were about a foot. That was fine.
    Yes we've done a few very rough channel crossings in our past (once stuck outside Dover for 3 hours waiting for the waves to die sufficiently). But generally we don't get too seasick (fingers-crossed!).

    If you'd asked me years ago, a cruise would not have been on my list but most people who have actually done one seem to like them (including a few friends who are recent converts, which has swayed us).

    Good grief, we'll be considering caravanning next! (Oh - apparently not, according to Mrs. P!)
    I think we are waiting until its just me and my better half. Taking grown kids on a cruise really doesn't appeal.
    Er no, but if they're grown up can't you leave them behind?
    One is only 14. Not far away now.
    We've only ever done a crossing (to young for a cruise!) but dressing up for dinner in the same restaurant with a limited menu got old very quickly
    A while back? The best description I've read of a Trans Atlantic was "nothing to do, and not enough time to do it in"
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,885
    edited September 2017



    Agree with your grandfather- cruise ships are generally much bigger and slower- and (with one exception - the Trans Atlantic) have itinerary and timetable flexibility- unlike a ferry which has to try to keep to time - so they hammer on through bad weather, unlike a cruise ship which can slow down or sail round bad weather. On the Trans Atlantic the QM2 has vast reserves of speed so can slow down in bad weather and speed up to catch up later.

    You and my grandad may well both be correct. But it's still too much of gamble to part with that kind of money if there's a chance I'd find the experience hellish. ;)

    Our first cruise was down to Cadiz and the Canaries and it was a bit rough crossing the Bay of Biscay. Quite notable that there were quite a few more people for dinner on the third night, when we were well across the Bay, than the previous one.
    And no, there was none of this ‘dressing for dinner’ lark. Although I did wear a suit! We also did a cruise on an American ship round New Zealand and across to Australia and there was certainly no formality.
    Horrendously expensive wifi though, which was a shock after the 'couple of hours for a Kiwi$' in NZ internet cafes!
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
  • North Korea, Harvey and Climate Breakdown, US withdrawal from the South Korean trade deal or even NAFTA, Trump's latest lurch towards collapse and resignation. What we appear to be seeing is " The Brexit Paradox. "

    Brexit can only happen in global circumstances too extreme to allow Brexit to succeed.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    HYUFD said:

    PClipp said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    I would expect the Tory vote share to fall back next time with some loss to both the LibDems and UKIP.In addition, a fair number of 2017 Tory voters will simply stay away.

    Why? Any dieheard Tory Remainers will already have switched to the LDs in 2017 if they were going to do so and if the Tories deliver a Brexit which ends free movement why would those voters switch back to UKIP if they risk letting Corbyn in and continuing free movement for years?
    Really? The present Conservative Government is now so incompetent, hard-hearted and generally dire, that even a Corbyn government might be an improvement. This particular threat is losing its power.

    You Tories need to find another strategy.
    Did you vote Tory in 2017? No.

    42% did and keeping them is the priority and adding a few 2015 Tories who went to Labour over the dementia tax and a few Labour Leave voters who stuck with Corbyn in 2017
    Keeping them might not be that easy. It is hard to see how even an efficient and well executed Brexit performed by a united team who were clear about what they wanted would be that much of a vote winner. The unfolding shambles is going to put at least some off. It may well put a lot off. Add in an uninspiring leadership election, the normal wear and tear of being in government and a few more unpredictable events like Grenfell. Tory support might well resemble a slow puncture for the next couple of years.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    Andrew Neil is by far the best politics presenter on the TV today, this is a ridiculous tweet
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    HYUFD said:

    Andrew Neil is by far the best politics presenter on the TV today, this is a ridiculous tweet

    He got badly pwned on FTA

    https://twitter.com/profchalmers/status/904287398401626113
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    We have enjoyed over 10 cruises varying from the Med , Vancouver to Beijing, Antarctica with ice landings, Norway, Iceland, Greenland, experienced wonderful sunsets and sunrises, seen the most amazing wildlife, been in hurricane seas for days on end, sailed seven days in total daylight, and yet never tire of being on board. May have something to do with our families connection with the sea over generations but you will have a great time I am sure
    Have to say that being stuck on a boat in hurricane seas for days strikes me as hell. 45 years ago now I was on a ferry from Hamburg to Hull overnight in what turned out to be one of the worst summer storms in 100 years (no doubt winter ones are even worse). It is not an episode I recall with affection although it was undeniably dramatic and memorable.

    Last week I went to Holland and back and other than wash the highest waves I saw were about a foot. That was fine.
    Yes we've done a few very rough channel crossings in our past (once stuck outside Dover for 3 hours waiting for the waves to die sufficiently). But generally we don't get too seasick (fingers-crossed!).

    If you'd asked me years ago, a cruise would not have been on my list but most people who have actually done one seem to like them (including a few friends who are recent converts, which has swayed us).

    Good grief, we'll be considering caravanning next! (Oh - apparently not, according to Mrs. P!)
    I think we are waiting until its just me and my better half. Taking grown kids on a cruise really doesn't appeal.
    Er no, but if they're grown up can't you leave them behind?
    One is only 14. Not far away now.
    We've only ever done a crossing (to young for a cruise!) but dressing up for dinner in the same restaurant with a limited menu got old very quickly
    A while back? The best description I've read of a Trans Atlantic was "nothing to do, and not enough time to do it in"
    I'm not sure when it was - except that OBL was killed mid way through the voyage and I was without news for 2 days... (6 years ago I think)
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180

    felix said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    stodge said:

    Mr. B, yeah. Just like the tax question. Taxes should go up for the rich to pay for vital services, where 'the rich' are people who earn more than me, and 'vital services' are ones that I use.

    There' s a much deeper question and that's how capitalism operates. Two examples from the week's news - Sky TV gouging an Alzheimer's sufferer for money for Broadband and other services he doesn't have and can't use and 888's huge fine for not doing enough to help problem gamblers.

    To take the latter first and it's not surprising bookmakers are courting the support of MPs. They are frankly parasites and their High Street FOBTs are despicable. Gambling is a serious addiction yet whereas we try with smoking to warn people of the risks, successive Governments have liberalised gambling. The shops in East Ham open from 8am to 10pm and are places where I see people spending all day every day.



    How would you propose Sky should have figured out he had Alzheimer's?
    The bank I work for has in the past two years introduced a lot of mandatory staff training on identifying and supporting vulnerable customers. I don't say they get it right all the time, and there have certainly been terrible incidents in the past but at least they are making an effort. I wonder how much training the Sky sales teams get? - it can be done.
    Sure it can be done. But as I understand it he ordered the package (and used it) for 2 years before he was diagnosed.

    I suppose you could argue that if a subscription product is not used for 12 months then companies should have a duty to revalidate the customer's needs, but in absence of a legal obligation that would be quite a burden for a company to voluntarily assume
    Yes, fair enough - I don't know the individual circumstances and there are often two sides, but free market capitalism encourages all sorts of exploitation.
    Unlike state control where there is no corruption, exploitation, or human rights violations and everyone is happy - Maduro/Kim /Castro rules ok!
    Yes indeed and of course those are the only two options - all or nothing. Oh, wait...
    And yet you are silent about state control until prompted. Funny that....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682

    HYUFD said:

    PClipp said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    I would expect the Tory vote share to fall back next time with some loss to both the LibDems and UKIP.In addition, a fair number of 2017 Tory voters will simply stay away.

    Why? Any dieheard Tory Remainers will already have switched to the LDs in 2017 if they were going to do so and if the Tories deliver a Brexit which ends free movement why would those voters switch back to UKIP if they risk letting Corbyn in and continuing free movement for years?
    Really? The present Conservative Government is now so incompetent, hard-hearted and generally dire, that even a Corbyn government might be an improvement. This particular threat is losing its power.

    You Tories need to find another strategy.
    Did you vote Tory in 2017? No.

    42% did and keeping them is the priority and adding a few 2015 Tories who went to Labour over the dementia tax and a few Labour Leave voters who stuck with Corbyn in 2017
    Keeping them might not be that easy. It is hard to see how even an efficient and well executed Brexit performed by a united team who were clear about what they wanted would be that much of a vote winner. The unfolding shambles is going to put at least some off. It may well put a lot off. Add in an uninspiring leadership election, the normal wear and tear of being in government and a few more unpredictable events like Grenfell. Tory support might well resemble a slow puncture for the next couple of years.
    Why? The vast majority of 2017 Tory voters wanted to end free movement and leave the single market.

    Boris is a more charismatic and inspiring leader than May and Corbyn also still has a big negative rating with 2017 Tory voters.

    Grenfell was a tragedy and I attended the match yesterday to raise money for survivors but Kensington where it was is already a Labour seat now
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited September 2017
    Mortimer said:

    justin124 said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The key reason the Tories are on 38% in this Survation poll is that UKIP are on 4%, up 3% on the 1% they got at the last general election. The priority for the Tories then must be to squeeze back the UKIP vote, if they did that they would be on 41% and would then only need to take 1% from Labour to be back to level pegging.

    Been drinking some of that wishful-thinking brew again?

    (I can spot it, 'cos I do it myself occasionally :lol:)
    It is a fact though, if Labour was on 38% and say the Greens on 4% I would equally advise Corbyn to squeeze the Green vote first but he has already successfully done that

    Labour will win the next GE by squeezing the tory vote further and getting more young people to vote. Simple as that.

    (Health warning - I'm only guessing - who knows?!)
    I would expect the Tory vote share to fall back next time with some loss to both the LibDems and UKIP.In addition, a fair number of 2017 Tory voters will simply stay away.
    Why? Any dieheard Tory Remainers will already have switched to the LDs in 2017 if they were going to do so and if the Tories deliver a Brexit which ends free movement why would those voters switch back to UKIP if they risk letting Corbyn in and continuing free movement for years?
    It's justin. Because short straws.
    Sorry I forgot that you read the polls at the last election so much better than I did. My repeated suggestions that many of the polls were likely to be exaggerating the Tory lead did turn out to be pure fantasy on my part.
    You also said Brexit wouldn't matter to a future election. What did the BES study indicate?

    You seem to think history is an indicator of the future. The idea that UKIP vote will rise is hilarious. More likely the party will have disappeared.
    I don't believe for one second that the 2017 election was determined by Brexit . Had it been the key salient issue Theresa May would have won very decisively. Corbyn managed to change the subject - and voters turned out to be much more receptive to his message than expected.
    And yes I do believe that history provides an indication of the future - albeit not a firm prediction because it never exactly repeats itself.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    Scott_P said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andrew Neil is by far the best politics presenter on the TV today, this is a ridiculous tweet

    He got badly pwned on FTA

    https://twitter.com/profchalmers/status/904287398401626113
    Is the UK seeking single market membership, no, so anything else will be a FTA of some form


  • Agree with your grandfather- cruise ships are generally much bigger and slower- and (with one exception - the Trans Atlantic) have itinerary and timetable flexibility- unlike a ferry which has to try to keep to time - so they hammer on through bad weather, unlike a cruise ship which can slow down or sail round bad weather. On the Trans Atlantic the QM2 has vast reserves of speed so can slow down in bad weather and speed up to catch up later.

    You and my grandad may well both be correct. But it's still too much of gamble to part with that kind of money if there's a chance I'd find the experience hellish. ;)

    And no, there was none of this ‘dressing for dinner’ lark. Although I did wear a suit! We also did a cruise on an American ship round New Zealand and across to Australia and there was certainly no formality.
    Horrendously expensive wifi though, which was a shock after the 'couple of hours for a Kiwi$' in NZ internet cafes!
    There is very little formality in cruising these days - with only Cunard doing the "dressing up" bit - while most are very informal to the point of "Butlins at Sea"
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    justin124 said:

    Mortimer said:

    justin124 said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The key reason the Tories are on 38% in this Survation poll is that UKIP are on 4%, up 3% on the 1% they got at the last general election. The priority for the Tories then must be to squeeze back the UKIP vote, if they did that they would be on 41% and would then only need to take 1% from Labour to be back to level pegging.

    Been drinking some of that wishful-thinking brew again?

    (I can spot it, 'cos I do it myself occasionally :lol:)
    It is a fact though, if Labour was on 38% and say the Greens on 4% I would equally advise Corbyn to squeeze the Green vote first but he has already successfully done that

    Labour will win the next GE by squeezing the tory vote further and getting more young people to vote. Simple as that.

    (Health warning - I'm only guessing - who knows?!)
    I would expect the Tory vote share to fall back next time with some loss to both the LibDems and UKIP.In addition, a fair number of 2017 Tory voters will simply stay away.
    Why? Any dieheard Tory Remainers will already have switched to the LDs in 2017 if they were going to do so and if the Tories deliver a Brexit which ends free movement why would those voters switch back to UKIP if they risk letting Corbyn in and continuing free movement for years?
    It's justin. Because short straws.
    Sorry I forgot that you read the polls at the last election so much better than I did. My repeated suggestions that many of the polls were likely to be exaggerating the Tory lead did turn out to be pure fantasy on my part.
    You also said Brexit wouldn't matter to a future election. What did the BES study indicate?

    You seem to think history is an indicator of the future. The idea that UKIP vote will rise is hilarious. More likely the party will have disappeared.
    I don't believe for one second that the 2017 election was determined by Brexit . Had it been the key salient issue Theresa May would have won very decisively. Corbyn managed to change the subject - and voters turned out to be much more receptive to his message than expected.
    He changed the subject because he backed Brexit, leaving the single market and ending free movement
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    The usual left strategy - stifle free speech. When will he be writing to the BBC/Sky/Ch4 about all their pro-remain broadcasters?
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    PClipp said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    I would expect the Tory vote share to fall back next time with some loss to both the LibDems and UKIP.In addition, a fair number of 2017 Tory voters will simply stay away.

    Why? Any dieheard Tory Remainers will already have switched to the LDs in 2017 if they were going to do so and if the Tories deliver a Brexit which ends free movement why would those voters switch back to UKIP if they risk letting Corbyn in and continuing free movement for years?
    Really? The present Conservative Government is now so incompetent, hard-hearted and generally dire, that even a Corbyn government might be an improvement. This particular threat is losing its power.

    You Tories need to find another strategy.
    May fighting the next election is the strategy apparently.I love to smell bullshit on a Sunday morning.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    HYUFD said:

    PClipp said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    I would expect the Tory vote share to fall back next time with some loss to both the LibDems and UKIP.In addition, a fair number of 2017 Tory voters will simply stay away.

    Why? Any dieheard Tory Remainers will already have switched to the LDs in 2017 if they were going to do so and if the Tories deliver a Brexit which ends free movement why would those voters switch back to UKIP if they risk letting Corbyn in and continuing free movement for years?
    Really? The present Conservative Government is now so incompetent, hard-hearted and generally dire, that even a Corbyn government might be an improvement. This particular threat is losing its power.
    You Tories need to find another strategy.
    Did you vote Tory in 2017? No.
    42% did and keeping them is the priority and adding a few 2015 Tories who went to Labour over the dementia tax and a few Labour Leave voters who stuck with Corbyn in 2017
    Quite right. I have never voted Tory. But the problem with your thinking is that "everybody" voted Tory because they were frightened by the prospect of a Corbyn-led government - not because they wanted a hard-line Tory government.

    And yet we have ended up with an useless hard-line Tory government. There is no way that people can be fooled again by the usual Tory tricks.

    The sooner we get back to proper three-party politics in England, the better.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    Mortimer said:

    justin124 said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The key reason the Tories are on 38% in this Survation poll is that UKIP are on 4%, up 3% on the 1% they got at the last general election. The priority for the Tories then must be to squeeze back the UKIP vote, if they did that they would be on 41% and would then only need to take 1% from Labour to be back to level pegging.

    Been drinking some of that wishful-thinking brew again?

    (I can spot it, 'cos I do it myself occasionally :lol:)
    It is a fact though, if Labour was on 38% and say the Greens on 4% I would equally advise Corbyn to squeeze the Green vote first but he has already successfully done that

    Labour will win the next GE by squeezing the tory vote further and getting more young people to vote. Simple as that.

    (Health warning - I'm only guessing - who knows?!)
    I would expect the Tory vote share to fall back next time with some loss to both the LibDems and UKIP.In addition, a fair number of 2017 Tory voters will simply stay away.
    Why? Any dieheard Tory Remainers will already have switched to the LDs in 2017 if they were going to do so and if the Tories deliver a Brexit which ends free movement why would those voters switch back to UKIP if they risk letting Corbyn in and continuing free movement for years?
    It's justin. Because short straws.
    Sorry I forgot that you read the polls at the last election so much better than I did. My repeated suggestions that many of the polls were likely to be exaggerating the Tory lead did turn out to be pure fantasy on my part.
    You also said Brexit wouldn't matter to a future election. What did the BES study indicate?

    You seem to think history is an indicator of the future. The idea that UKIP vote will rise is hilarious. More likely the party will have disappeared.
    I don't believe for one second that the 2017 election was determined by Brexit . Had it been the key salient issue Theresa May would have won very decisively. Corbyn managed to change the subject - and voters turned out to be much more receptive to his message than expected.
    He changed the subject because he backed Brexit, leaving the single market and ending free movement
    The point is that Brexit was not the key salient talking point of the capaign - unlike the dementia tax and tuition fees. In addition, May's leadership ratings collapsed.
  • Charles said:

    Charles said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    W wildlife, been in hurricane seas for days on end, sailed seven days in total daylight, and yet never tire of being on board. May have something to do with our families connection with the sea over generations but you will have a great time I am sure
    Have to say that being stuck on a boat in hurricane seas for days strikes me as hell. 45 years ago now I was on a ferry from Hamburg to Hull overnight in what turned out to be one of the worst summer storms in 100 years (no doubt winter ones are even worse). It is not an episode I recall with affection although it was undeniably dramatic and memorable.

    Last week I went to Holland and back and other than wash the highest waves I saw were about a foot. That was fine.
    Yes we've done a few very rough channel crossings in our past (once stuck outside Dover for 3 hours waiting for the waves to die sufficiently). But generally we don't get too seasick (fingers-crossed!).

    If you'd asked me years ago, a cruise would not have been on my list but most people who have actually done one seem to like them (including a few friends who are recent converts, which has swayed us).

    Good grief, we'll be considering caravanning next! (Oh - apparently not, according to Mrs. P!)
    I think we are waiting until its just me and my better half. Taking grown kids on a cruise really doesn't appeal.
    Er no, but if they're grown up can't you leave them behind?
    One is only 14. Not far away now.
    We've only ever done a crossing (to young for a cruise!) but dressing up for dinner in the same restaurant with a limited menu got old very quickly
    A while back? The best description I've read of a Trans Atlantic was "nothing to do, and not enough time to do it in"
    I'm not sure when it was - except that OBL was killed mid way through the voyage and I was without news for 2 days... (6 years ago I think)
    Queen Mary then - the QE2 had a group of dedicated crossers called the "Winter Crossing Club" who'd take the January crossing in expectation of bad weather- had a force 9 one year- she rode it like she was born to it.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    felix said:

    The usual left strategy - stifle free speech. When will he be writing to the BBC/Sky/Ch4 about all their pro-remain broadcasters?
    Andrew Adonis left ?
  • CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    edited September 2017
    felix said:

    The usual left strategy - stifle free speech. When will he be writing to the BBC/Sky/Ch4 about all their pro-remain broadcasters?
    The BBC and C4 would have few presenters left if they had to take out their blatantly pro-EU lot.
  • DavidL said:



    Housing - situation made worse by Cameron and Osborne
    NHS - situation made worse by Cameron and Osborne
    Student fees - situation made worse by Cameron and Osborne
    Young people - situation made worse by Cameron and Osborne
    Fatcats - situation made worse by Cameron and Osborne

    You were warned, repeatedly.

    Yet Conservative supporters here ra-ra-raad as Cameron and Osborne shifted the Conservatives from promoting aspiration to defending privilege.

    Just one example: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/housing-starts-and-completions-hit-7-year-high
    Of course there is more to do but housing is affected by both supply and demand and it is hardly surprising that post 2008 demand for houses for purchase fell off a cliff. Government policies have tried to address that as well as suppressing the BTL market. These are both good things.

    How has protecting and indeed increasing the NHS budget made things worse? The reforms do seem to have reduced admin costs in the NHS, albeit at a price and are now settled down.

    Osborne significantly increased the tax take from fat cats both in absolute terms and as a share of the overall tax.

    The one area where things have gone backward is student fees which are both too high and now having an excessive interest rate applied to them. As a result a significant proportion of the young are going into adult life already carrying their first mortgage. This is bad for them and, I fear, bad for the country going forward.

    But you always moan that the deficit was not addressed more aggressively. Its hard to see how addressing that is compatible with such a wish.
    And why do fatcats pay more tax ?

    Because their incomes have increased so much.

    And have they earned that extra increase in income ?

    Think about these things for once David instead of bleating the party line.

    As to deficits Cameron and Osborne increased the current account deficit to a cumulative half a trillion quid over the last five years.

    Do you not regard that as shocking ? Do you consider that in any way acceptable ?

    That is the consequence of an unbalanced economy which has become even more unbalanced.

    Do you remember when Osborne would say "Britain is borrowing money from China to buy things made in China" ?

    That was before GE2010 and all faithfully echoed by PB Tories at the time. Yet under Cameron and Osborne the UK's current account deficit swelled to record amounts, both historically and in comparison to other countries. And the PB Tories were silent.
  • HYUFD said:

    Andrew Neil is by far the best politics presenter on the TV today, this is a ridiculous tweet
    By a ridiculous man. Who isn't an elected representative of course.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    PClipp said:

    HYUFD said:

    PClipp said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    I would expect the Tory vote share to fall back next time with some loss to both the LibDems and UKIP.In addition, a fair number of 2017 Tory voters will simply stay away.

    Why? Any dieheard Tory Remainers will already have switched to the LDs in 2017 if they were going to do so and if the Tories deliver a Brexit which ends free movement why would those voters switch back to UKIP if they risk letting Corbyn in and continuing free movement for years?
    Really? The present Conservative Government is now so incompetent, hard-hearted and generally dire, that even a Corbyn government might be an improvement. This particular threat is losing its power.
    You Tories need to find another strategy.
    Did you vote Tory in 2017? No.
    42% did and keeping them is the priority and adding a few 2015 Tories who went to Labour over the dementia tax and a few Labour Leave voters who stuck with Corbyn in 2017
    Quite right. I have never voted Tory. But the problem with your thinking is that "everybody" voted Tory because they were frightened by the prospect of a Corbyn-led government - not because they wanted a hard-line Tory government.

    And yet we have ended up with an useless hard-line Tory government. There is no way that people can be fooled again by the usual Tory tricks.

    The sooner we get back to proper three-party politics in England, the better.
    Most people voted Tory in a combination of fear of Corbyn and support for Brexit. The vast majority of those support the core policies of this supposedly 'hard-line' Tory government.

    The few who left the Tories mainly did so over the dementia tax.

    As for proper 'three-party' politics, the LDs have fallen from 23% in 2010 to 7% in 2017 and UKIP from 12% in 2015 to just over 1% in 2017 and the Greens and SNP also fell from 2015 to 2017, there is no prospect of any return to it soon


  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    Mortimer said:

    justin124 said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The key reason the Tories are on 38% in this Survation poll is that UKIP are on 4%, up 3% on the 1% they got at the last general election. The priority for the Tories then must be to squeeze back the UKIP vote, if they did that they would be on 41% and would then only need to take 1% from Labour to be back to level pegging.

    Been drinking some of that wishful-thinking brew again?

    (I can spot it, 'cos I do it myself occasionally :lol:)
    It is a fact though, if Labour was on 38% and say the Greens on 4% I would equally advise Corbyn to squeeze the Green vote first but he has already successfully done that

    Labour will win the next GE by squeezing the tory vote further and getting more young people to vote. Simple as that.

    (Health warning - I'm only guessing - who knows?!)
    I would expect the Tory vote share to fall back next time with some loss to both the LibDems and UKIP.In addition, a fair number of 2017 Tory voters will simply stay away.
    Why? Any dieheard Tory Remainers will already have switched to the LDs in 2017 if they were going to do so and if the Tories deliver a Brexit which ends free movement why would those voters switch back to UKIP if they risk letting Corbyn in and continuing free movement for years?
    It's justin. Because short straws.
    Sorry I forgot that you read the polls at the last election so much better than I did. My repeated suggestions that many of the polls were likely to be exaggerating the Tory lead did turn out to be pure fantasy on my part.
    You also said Brexit wouldn't matter to a future election. What did the BES study indicate?

    You seem to think history is an indicator of the future. The idea that UKIP vote will rise is hilarious. More likely the party will have disappeared.
    I don't .
    He changed the subject because he backed Brexit, leaving the single market and ending free movement
    The point is that Brexit was not the key salient talking point of the capaign - unlike the dementia tax and tuition fees. In addition, May's leadership ratings collapsed.
    Only because Corbyn neutralised the Brexit issue by effectively backing May's position on it enabling him to then capitalise on the dementia tax etc
  • GIN1138 said:
    From the Sunday not Daily politics
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682

    HYUFD said:

    Andrew Neil is by far the best politics presenter on the TV today, this is a ridiculous tweet
    By a ridiculous man. Who isn't an elected representative of course.
    Nor has he ever been elected
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    edited September 2017
    GIN1138 said:
    No, though he should have replaced David Dimbleby as host of election night and QT years ago, leaving Dimbleby just to do big State occasions
  • HYUFD said:


    HYUFD said:

    Andrew Neil is by far the best politics presenter on the TV today, this is a ridiculous tweet
    By a ridiculous man. Who isn't an elected representative of course.
    Nor has he ever been elected
    Wasn't he a local councillor somewhere once (Oxford?)?
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The key reason the Tories are on 38% in this Survation poll is that UKIP are on 4%, up 3% on the 1% they got at the last general election. The priority for the Tories then must be to squeeze back the UKIP vote, if they did that they would be on 41% and would then only need to take 1% from Labour to be back to level pegging.

    Utter nonsense. The priority for the Tories is not the 4% of the population that 'may be squeezed' but the 58% of the nation that is neither voting Tory nor UKIP. A vote won off Labour is worth two votes from anyone else and there are a lot more of them that can be swung. Address housing, the NHS, education etc - don't go banging on about immigrants or whatever that the purple BNP now bang on about now that Brexit is real.
    Housing, NHS, student fees and young people must be the conservatives top priority together with dealing with the fat cats, both in the public and private sectors, to achieve the centre ground and win in 2022
    Housing - situation made worse by Cameron and Osborne
    NHS - situation made worse by Cameron and Osborne
    Student fees - situation made worse by Cameron and Osborne
    Young people - situation made worse by Cameron and Osborne
    Fatcats - situation made worse by Cameron and Osborne

    You were warned, repeatedly.

    Yet Conservative supporters here ra-ra-raad as Cameron and Osborne shifted the Conservatives from promoting aspiration to defending privilege.
    It is now no surprise that the Tory who polls worst against Corbyn (according to last month's Survation), Hammond, is also the senior Tory most closely backed by Osborne. Apart from his inheritance tax cut there isn't much Osborne was promoting Corbyn could not capitalise on in June 2017

    The robbing of the young
    The funding of vanity projects while public services were cut
    The trashing of "we're all in this together"
    The doom and disaster predictions which were shown to be false

    Now if you look at the mentality behind Osborne's policies they make sense on a short term tactical basis - old people vote and the young don't, people like their houses to rise in value, keep people spending on consumer tat and foreign holidays.

    But in a longer term strategic sense they're disastrous for the Conservatives and not good for the country.

  • HYUFD said:


    HYUFD said:

    Andrew Neil is by far the best politics presenter on the TV today, this is a ridiculous tweet
    By a ridiculous man. Who isn't an elected representative of course.
    Nor has he ever been elected
    Wasn't he a local councillor somewhere once (Oxford?)?
    Lol probably co-opted..
  • HYUFD said:


    HYUFD said:

    Andrew Neil is by far the best politics presenter on the TV today, this is a ridiculous tweet
    By a ridiculous man. Who isn't an elected representative of course.
    Nor has he ever been elected
    Wasn't he a local councillor somewhere once (Oxford?)?
    Lol probably co-opted..
    Oxford City councillor, late 80s for SDP. Switched to LibDems at some point.

    Tried to run for a seat in Wiltshire.

    [all from Wikipedia]
This discussion has been closed.