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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first voting poll since TMay’s “not a quitter” assertion has LAB lead up to 5
LAB lead extend lead with Survation – most accurate pollster at GE17LAB 43% +2CON 38% =LD 7% -1UKIP 4% -2Change since mid July
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It may not just be Mrs Strong and Stable, but also Labours shift to soft Brexit proving popular.
So-called 'soft Brexit' may well be the worst of all possible worlds, on the hook for financial and regulatory responsibilities, without any voting rights (although we would, of course, be at the mercy of eurozone QMV in most areas anyway).
I do like the Survation question. Perhaps we can compare the answers to the percentages for a 'Brexit bill' of £50bn, or annual payments of £10bn?
Edited extra bit:
pre-race ramble here: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/09/italy-pre-race-2017.html
The treatment of the Rohingya is deplorable, but control of the security forces in Burma is fragile at the best of times, and in frontier districts in particular. Multiculturalism is difficult for most countries to manage, but is particularly so for a place with such a fragile embryonic democracy.
Labour's new cunning plan is that we stay in the Customs Union and Common Market, and have a slightly modified FOM. Is that correct?
Don't the EU have any say in this? They will conveniently roll over and adjust FOM as requested, thus allowing the other 27 EU countries to so too? Really? When did they lose touch with realty totally?
(They can then shout "the Tories failed, we would have given you the moon on a stick carried by a unicorn" and win votes because no one in the media will bother to challenge them)
From their point of view, what’s not to like?
Such a deal isn't a deal, it's insane. We'd be signing up to the costs and losing the voting rights. It's a deranged proposal.
And what would be the long-term political impact here? How far would ECJ rulings reach?
It wouldn't lance the EU boil and allow a fresh start (for both sides), it'd prolong and worsen anti-EU sentiment here.
The FOM issue is unlikely to be sorted by any sort of change. That's why Cameron couldn't get a deal. It's central to the ethos of the EU so the tweak will have to be invisible - the major EU countries will not allow anything more than a cosmetic alteration. I see a big problem here.
The EU will certainly be happy, but with Juncker and Barnier playing the pantomime villains, I doubt the UK population will pile all the blame on us.
I agree that those two sets of responses to Brexit questions are contradictory.
What they do seem to indicate quite clearly is that a solid majority in the country is extremely unwilling to pay a serious price for getting out of the EU - which suggests that any conceivable deal, or no deal at all, is going to seriously disappoint most people.
We may as well stay in, if that's the compromise.
And the EU has repeatedly said that it won't compromise on FoM.
The attractiveness of such a package is easy to see due to the contrast with the chaos and lack of discernable benefits from a WTO type of hard Brexit.
Miss Cyclefree, quite. Labour's flopping about like a jellyfish.
To reflect that on a similar September Sunday morning, 78 years ago, we found ourselves in a much more serious argument with one part of Europe. The machinery of "modern" warfare (at the time) was unleashed and neither Britain nor the world would be the same.
One can only hope history won't be repeating itself in Asia any time soon but another H-Bomb test and more bellicose rantings from Pyongyang and you just wonder how far that bad will stretch before it snaps.
Back here, another day and more EU arguments on here. The Labour proposals for post-EU arrangements sound like the much-derided (by some on here) "Norway" option but many will like the idea of keeping most of the economic relationship, ditching the political relationship and getting some kind of deal on Freedom of Movement.
If we see the knee-jerk response to anything proposed by Labour as typical, the question then becomes whether Conservatives will support anything and everything or indeed nothing if that is the outcome of the A50 negotiations ? Whatever Davis and Fox come back will have to be supported because the alternative is the unthinkable - political collapse and a Labour Government led by Jeremy Corbyn. That puts May and the Government in a much better position because a not insignificant minority are tethered to her out of fear and/or desperation.
Any deal will be lauded as a triumph, "Brexit Day" will probably be a national holiday and "Global Britain" will be launched on a wave of euphoria and patriotism. A few tax cuts later and it's off to the polls with a shiny new Prime Minister.
https://amp.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/sep/03/north-korea-nuclear-test-south-korea-yohap-kim-jong-un-live
Miss Vance, hard to see much being done about this, beyond wailing and gnashing of teeth.
So what if a Labour government turns out to be one of those consequences? As long as we leave the EU, that's all that matters, isn't it? That's what we voted for in the referendum.
We might lose some of the advantages of being in the Single Market eg euro clearing, even under this proposal, if - say - the EU decided that this had to be in the country of a full member and not just someone in the Single Market. It's an unstable proposal because it does not address the issues which led to the referendum result. Rather than being a thought through proposal based on a careful and agreed idea of what relationship we both want with each other, it is a proposal based on a mixture of cherry picking and short-term tactics.
The risk for the EU - and, frankly, for the rest of us - is that the whole sorry saga starts again.
This won't happen. But my preference, given where we are, is for us formally to leave but de facto stay as members as now for a longish period while we carefully work out what sort of relationship we want and how to unpick our existing one. This will take time. But that is what we need. It gives everyone a level of certainty, including the EU, on stuff like citizens, Ireland and money.
And it allows those in charge and the civil servants to do all the hard thinking and planning which has not been done until now.
Moon on a stick, obviously......
We need some immigration, but pretending that 300,000 a year is essential is silly (and I know many come from outside the EU). The extra houses needed alone seems to be beyond any of our governments.
It's likely that a Corbyn government would be happy with unlimited immigration, but it's a vote-loser, and they know that.
It's all still in its early stages though so plenty of opportunity for posturing still.
I think the way May has interpreted the result has been disastrous. I find it genuinely hard to understand what Labour's position is. I dislike much about the EU and think they are far more to blame for the mess than they are willing to admit. But Britain is simply not behaving like a serious grown up at the moment so I can understand the EU's frustrations.
Meanwhile the clock is ticking.....
Pick and choose won't be an option. Can we have all the educated ones, please? Especially if they'll work at caring jobs in the NHS? No chance, you'll get what you're given by Angela (assuming she survives).
That will keep the politicians and newspapers happy. The Guardian can highlight all the productive nurses and doctors, and the Mail can go big on all the Rumanian gypsies.
To take the latter first and it's not surprising bookmakers are courting the support of MPs. They are frankly parasites and their High Street FOBTs are despicable. Gambling is a serious addiction yet whereas we try with smoking to warn people of the risks, successive Governments have liberalised gambling. The shops in East Ham open from 8am to 10pm and are places where I see people spending all day every day.
As for the former, companies need to be in the forefront of promoting a more caring and compassionate capitalism and not just paying lip service to customer service charters. Some firms are no doubt very good at this but there are others (and I suspect it's employees given unreasonable sales targets) who take the opportunity to prey on the vulnerable. That cannot be condoned.
I think that the conferences will validate the Labour Brexit position, though the real popcorn should be saved for the Tory one.
So financial pressures will sort out FOM.
@MrsJHaitch: 2. but they don't want to face up to it. All them were keen to impress on me how important it is that I get behind Brexit now.
@MrsJHaitch: 3. As if my lack of positivity will somehow make Brexit fail. But in fact, what they really want, is for me to be like them.
@MrsJHaitch: 4. They want me to pretend everything will be OK, just like they're doing. They want me to stop talking about it because
@MrsJHaitch: 5. they don't want to face up to what's happening. They're denial and my refusal to accept Brexit makes them feel uncomfortable.
@MrsJHaitch: 6. What they want is to brush it under the carpet. They don't like the fact that we keep dragging it back out and holding it to the light.
@MrsJHaitch: 7. Leavers don't like Remainers because we insist what we are buying should be fit for purpose. When in reality Brexit is a pig in a poke.
The fruitcake Tories who have spent their whole lives dreaming of leaving the EU would have accepted a Pol Pot government if it meant getting out of Europe
This time we are going it alone
Boston has certainly changed, but the Polish seem OK. Good, Catholic boys and girls, but they do like a drink, and seem to use knives more than the locals (mostly on themselves), and the drink-drive figures have rocketed. They tend to be younger, and some of the local grannies disapprove of their antics.
It would be similar if they had an invasion of cockneys, or even worse ... Tykes.
2006: 4.3
2009: 4.7
2013: 4.9
2016: 5.1 (January)
2016: 5.3 (September)
2017: 6.3
A 6.3 implies a 10 fold amplitude increase over the previous test, with the energy released (assuming the conditions of the test were similiar) being to the power 1.5 means the test was 31 times as powerful as the last test, and 1000 times the power of the 2006 1st test..
https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/02/tory-mps-threaten-theresa-may-over-brexit-votes
* Only Soubry named...
I suspect that crashing the economy will help solve immigration to a degree, but the licence to be xenophobic is the stronger reason.
Of course, Non EU immigration remains substantially unchanged, and as largely from third world countries less affected by shifts in the UK/EZ balance of economic power. The pull of thd UK from Pakistan and Nigeria will remain unchanged.
George Osborne Awaiting Training ?
It seems Labour's current position is to give the EU what it wants, subjecting the UK to EU regulation whilst depriving us of trading opportunities and voting rights.
And if such a deal were struck it would deepen and prolong the alarmingly polarised political situation domestically, as well as being just another unsustainable UK-EU relationship.
But apart from being against the national interest, contrary to reason, and worsening the situation domestically for the sake of an unstable and unsustainable relationship, it'd be a great deal.
While hard line Brexiteers are hardly drawing the nation together as one!
Dr. Foxinsox, we were also deprived of voting rights when Brown threw away vetoes at the same time he discarded a manifesto promise for a referendum. That was contrary to the vote of the electorate rather than in accordance with it, as departure from the EU would be (assuming we do not end up with a departure in name only).
https://www.thebalance.com/world-s-largest-economy-3306044
I do agree for a two year transition deal with all the same conditions of EU membership but labour need to clarify their position at the end of this period, as Starmer didn't provide a coherent answer.
However, he did seem to be aware of the dangers of the policy being used as a means to remain in the EU. He repeatedly said that in March 2019 we will be out of the EU
most who put their trust in polls ended up badly burnt.
Whoever said they were the 'stupid party' got it absolutely right
We even had a new variant off the 'German cars' line where he sounded more like Del Boy: "Bavaria! They've got it all there: BMW, agriculture..."
The position in our media is distorted because many, perhaps most, don't want this to happen at all and want to paint a picture of incompetence and failure to undermine support for Brexit.
As the Donald might say: Scary!
What I don't want is a "permanent" deal that is likely to fall apart within a relatively brief period of time, that is unstable and which will continue the current uncertainty for UK plc almost indefinitely. That seems to me to be the worst of all worlds and no deal would, in my view, still be better than that because we would at least know where we are and could act accordingly.
I want a close and constructive relationship with the EU going forward. What I think is still unclear is whether that is what the EU wants too. They still seem to be at the scorned stage. I am not sure how much we can actually do about that.