Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Gerrymandered congressional districts could save the House for
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Gerrymandered congressional districts could save the House for the GOP
The Great Dealmaker has not had the greatest first seven months in the White House. No wall, no healthcare reform, a chaotic West Wing and innumerable self-inflicted PR gaffes are not an ideal start to a presidency. Ironically, the one president that Trump rates himself behind is perhaps the only one to have had a worse start: at least there’s been no civil war so far.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_shutdown_in_the_United_States#List_of_federal_shutdowns
Trump has pardoned racist sherriff joe arpachio
Most people thinks he is a hateful prick over the transgender militsry ban.
"Most people thinks he is a hateful prick over the transgender militsry ban."
I'd be surprised by that. I assume you have the polling data?
http://time.com/4886165/trump-transgender-ban-poll/
The poll found that 60% of Republicans said they oppose transgender service. Every other polling segment, including party affiliation, gender, education, age group and racial group, said they supported transgender service by margins of 22% points or higher, the Quinnipiac University poll found.
Nothing quite like getting up twice during the night to take the dog out (upset stomach). Mind you, her predecessor used to get terrible diarrhoea that would take 1-2 hours to clean up, so...
Mr. Herdson, interesting article but don't you think a Republican challenger might arise?
F1: plan to put the pre-qualifying article up at the usual time but there's an off-chance I might have to attend to the hound.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2017/08/26/do-meet-tory-corbynista-guide
Anyway, the UK has its own blonde buffoon from NY who is a walking disaster - the Foreign Secretary.
Look at the way Trump is toxifying fhe GOP to such a massive degree.
Says a lot about my naivety I supppose
https://twitter.com/goldengateblond/status/901303518794874880
@sahilkapur: White House official: "Sebastian Gorka did not resign, but I can confirm he no longer works at the White House."
I can't confirm part two. However, the fifth amendment is designed to stop people incriminating themselves. Logically, if they have already admitted guilt by accepting a pardon, and no longer have to fear prosecution, that clause would no longer apply.
Therefore, if questioned about the guilt of others complicit in any such admitted crimes, refusing to answer might be considered obstruction of justice.
More to the point, generalisations (on both sides) often exclude individuals who are known personally/have a high profile. Not many on the left would think of Ken Clark as evil, quite a few on the right would put someone who appeared on Press TV as a pundit in that category.
Of course, sometimes these categories are fair enough. It seems eminently reasonable to assume any member of the KKK is racist. Or that any member of MENSA is intelligent. Because those are specific requirements of the organisation. But it isn't a requirement of the Tories that you must be prejudiced. Indeed, in my experience they're much more open to new views and ideas than their Labour equivalents.
As an aside, somebody made a comment about the ire directed against Corbyn, including from me of course, as an example of prejudice. But the problem with Corbyn is there is ample evidence from way back that whatever his personal charm he is a really dodgy character. Nobody forced him to meet IRA members and then lie about it. Nobody forced him to be a patron of a quasi-Nazi organisation (Deir Yassin Remembered) for eight years and then lie about that too. Nobody forced him to be a friend of Len McCluskey. Criticism of Corbyn for these actions is not prejudice against his views - it's a fair response to what he has done in the past.
If we do get a real anti GOP wave, the losses in gerrymandered states could be significant to catastrophic.
I don't know, hoist on my own petard
Here she is, however, in her own words, which is why I took the above quote at face value
My very very initial reflections are that there are two basic types of Tory. You’ve got the ones – like Boris Johnson – who are so blinded by their own privilege and have never experienced hardship, that they genuinely seem unable to see what it’s like in our communities.
If they see someone in tears from the sheer weight of everything that’s being piled on top of them their reaction is, ‘oh you’re being very dramatic’.
The other type is completely ideologically driven. They seem genuinely to believe capitalism is the best way to improve society and it blinds them to the evidence under their nose.
I have met a couple of Tories who were genuinely really anxious for me to see that they weren’t horrible people and really believed putting everything into private enterprise will achieve better results.
Whatever type they are, I have absolutely no intention of being friends with any of them. I have friends I choose to spend time with. I go to parliament to be a mouthpiece for my constituents and class – I’m not interested in chatting on.
To pardon someone found guilty by a federal judge of criminal contempt is undoubtedly an egregious attack on the judiciary, and an assault on constitutional government, but it is not in itself unconstitutional. Trump is using the constitution against itself.
It is, also, not just a message to the racists, but to his other base in the police. Trump has the instincts of a fascist, and it is easy to dismiss him as the elderly buffon he is - but he is also dangerous.
Of course, it also makes the Governor Gerrys of this world look stupid and corrupt. But that's possibly not a significant problem for Trump at this moment, as it's rather hard to imagine he could look stupider than he already does.
https://mobile.twitter.com/RealSheriffJoe/status/901249811743035393
- Gorka resigns
- Arpaio pardoned
- Trans military ban
- Harvey now Cat4
- NK launches missiles
- Trump goes on vacation
The Dems just have to suck it up for the next 3 years and console themselves that Trump is looking like being one of the least effective presidents ever. Better that from their perspective than Trump handing over to Pence before 2020.
It's also important that at least one credible Dem POTUS candidate emerges by 2019/20. I'm slightly worried about whether they have such a candidate in the wings, but early days yet.
As the Spartans would say, "if".
She is an example of the poor quality of politicians that for whatever reason our system is turning out. God help us if Laura Pidcock is going to solve the vast, complex problems that are facing us.
Brexit. Terrorism. The deficit. Russia. Trump. Public spending. Robotic warfare. AI.
God help us all.
Gerald Ford used to carry a copy of the relevant legal ruling everywhere he went, so whenever asked him whether he thought Nixon was innocent over Watergate, he could demonstrate that in fact the pardon proved he was guilty!
Here’s how the Tories should choose leaders
The final decision must be restored to MPs because the current nonsensical system gives too much power to activists
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ce102b4a-89c0-11e7-9f10-c918952dd8f2
There are genuine arguments for this or that voting system. Any leader must have the support of both MPs and the wider party. MPs do whittle it down to two under the current system, which is more than a little influence.
We have very few on here, fortunately, but they exist.
Tories are misguided, Corbynites are misguided, LDs are now misguided because of Europe, and of course, Leavers are misguided, but that doesn't stop them being nice people. And even worse, some of my friends are misguided too. If only people would stop arguing and agree that I'm always right
It's a lesson I learned when I outgrew my teens. Burnham wearing a t-shirt saying I've never kissed a Tory is probably a sign he's not yet grown up.
Now she's lost, there's no platform for these people to strut their stuff and build up some momentum. By contrast, it's the Republicans that have locked out almost every significant post in US politics apart from 16 governorships, one of whom is an independent. And of those governors a number are too old (Jerry Brown) too conservative to appeal to the base (John Bel Edwards) or too liberal to appeal to the swing voters (Cuomo).
So they have pretty significant problems in finding a candidate. My guess would be that the primary shortlist will include Cuomo, Kaine, Edwards and Warren. It is also just possible Evan Bayh might make a comeback given the paucity of the field. But to pick a winner, and see that winner defeating the Republican candidate whom I must confess I am assuming will not be Trump (who I think will be the first incumbent Republican to be refused renomination by his party since Grant in 1876) is a much longer stretch.
However, if Obama could pop up from nowhere...
"The problem is, the Democrats chose the only candidate who could lose to Trump."
That was always my view. As they like family connections, isn't there a Kennedy lurking around for next time?
Vandoorne's grid penalty has risen from 40 to 65. There are 20 cars on the grid.
If we accept Parris's thesis, there might be a case for reversing the procedure so that the members produce a shortlist and MPs choose between the final two or three. What does Parris suggest?
"the name Bush keeps recurring on the GOP side."
Ah, those little tinkers. Just like North Korea, isn't it?
That really was awful. It was riddled with prejudice, for a start. 'I find it intimidating and I believe this is deliberate.' 'I would like them to visit my constituency.' 'Everyone in the south thinks we're savages.'
I also can't make out what the hell she was actually meant to be talking about. Was she talking about class solidarity, austerity, or random historical facts? Does she really think the Durham Miners' Gala is one of the world's great cultural items? Leaving aside the fact it's political rather than cultural, while a significant event I don't think it compares with the New Orleans Mardi Gras or the Oktoberfest.
I agree entirely with your conclusion. She is simply not up to it. I wouldn't say Neil Carmichael was a good MP, and he's no loss to the Commons, but he's a thousand times better than that.
If Labour do go for mass deselection and put in numpties like that in place of Cooper and even Chris Leslie, we're completely stuffed.
Or indeed vice versa.
Never happens!
It might be that Trump achieves more than we notice because we judge him against his own, often contradictory, moon-on-a-stick promises.
*http://www.thecommentator.com/article/3509/the_truth_about_thatcher_and_the_steel_industry
However, if Pidcock keeps this up I think his crown is under threat.
*Better known as Viscount Castlereagh.
You have my genuine sympathy for your condition.
She might have had a stronger case on the nappy factory, which closed due to unfavourable economic conditions in 1991. But the further irony is that was promoted by the Thatcher government to replace the lost jobs of steelworkers...
Aside from the Supreme Court, he has appointed judges to the federal bench at a far faster rate than Obama, and his appointments will colour US law for a generation or more. Should he get a couple more Supreme Court appointments, which is entirely possible, he will completely alter the political balance of the court, again likely for a generation.
Remember, while received wisdom suggests Trump would be beaten by a monkey on a stick on these numbers (a) we (almost) all thought that about Remain, Clinton, May etc and we were all wrong and (b) he may not be the candidate.
So it may take a long time to undo anything he does now.
Warren, in my view the likely 2020 Democratic nominee just ahead of Sanders, by contrast leads Trump by just 5% in a hypothetical 2020 race, less than half the margin the Democrats lead by for the mid terms. So in my view it is far more likely the Democrats win the House next year and maybe even get close in the Senate but Trump is re elected than the reverse. History reinforces that, it is very common for presidents to be unpopular in their first 2 terms, their party to lose the midterms and pivot to the centre to win re election, it is almost unheard of for a President's party to win the midterms and for that President to be re elected
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2017/08/trump-holds-steady-after-charlottesville-supporters-think-whites-christians-face-discrimination.html#more