Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump’s attacks on the media are simply failing to resonate an
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump’s attacks on the media are simply failing to resonate and he’s well behind in 2020 match-ups
Trump's attacks on the media not resonating. This from @ppppolls pic.twitter.com/3YRnSBrigb
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
IF he survives this term, I very much doubt he'll run again - he'll have four years to address the many challenges faced by the 'deplorables' - and he'll fail (because very few of them have easy, if any solutions) - so he'll end up as 'another Washington politician who betrayed us' - and I don't think Trump is enjoying it much - I suspect he's finding it much harder than he anticipated....
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/aug/23/trump-supporter-interviews-phoenix-arizona-rally
The emperor still has a fine suit of clothes in their eyes.
Yes, it's very, very likely that the Republicans will do badly in the mid term elections, and that Trump will be a one term president - if he makes it that far. But until he is actually gone I remain uneasy. There remains the outside chance that events conspire in his favour.
A buffoon without political or moral scruple, whom a third of the country will back without hesitation, remains dangerous.
Trump Holds Steady After Charlottesville; Supporters Think Whites, Christians Face Discrimination
PPP's newest national poll finds that Donald Trump's approval rating is pretty steady in the wake of the Charlottesville attack, probably because his supporters think that whites and Christians are the most oppressed groups of people in the country. 40% of voters approve of the job Trump is doing to 53% who disapprove, little change from the 41/55 spread we found for him in July.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2017/08/trump-holds-steady-after-charlottesville-supporters-think-whites-christians-face-discrimination.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/13/companies-have-big-plans-foroverseas-cash--if-tax-reform-ever-happens.html
Asked what racial group they think faces the most discrimination in America, 45% of Trump voters say it's white people followed by 17% for Native Americans with 16% picking African Americans, and 5% picking Latinos. Asked what religious group they think faces the most discrimination in America, 54% of Trump voters says it's Christians followed by 22% for Muslims and 12% for Jews. There is a mindset among many Trump voters that it's whites and Christians getting trampled on in America that makes it unlikely they would abandon Trump over his 'both sides' rhetoric.
https://www.ft.com/content/d9e595d0-8750-11e7-bf50-e1c239b45787
The underlying problem is that most ministers know that Brexit comes with a hefty cost, but are unwilling to confront voters with the consequences of the referendum. How, they ask, can we tell the voters they made a rotten choice?
Whilst I agree Trump's not looking great for 2020, those who dislike him now are in favour of the ephemeral, until an actual alternative emerges. Those who support him know what they're supporting.
It's a little like best successor to May polling, which is more about name recognition than a firm conviction that X, Y or Z would do a better job.
Come 2020, if he stands again (I suspect he may not) then people will not have Trump or Not Trump, but Trump or Candidate X.
I'd expect the gap to narrow a little in Trump's favour.
Give it up mate, you're as boring as fuck.
Same with London and the UK, as newsreader Jon Snow recently observed.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4818026/I-m-touch-elite-says-Channel-4-s-Jon-Snow.html
The ideal for Trump is that it helps rebuild new industries in the rust bucket marginal states. That may well happen to some extent but the price of small internet start ups is going to soar even higher as the Tech giants buy up every bit of IP they think might ever have any potential.
The issue seems to me less about whether the voters made the right or wrong choice but rather that, in the time since the referendum, politicians have not set out what the choices are which now need to be made, the costs and benefits, who bears them, what trade offs there need to be, the advantages and disadvantages of both. Rather the debate has been about whether they should have voted Leave or Remain (pointless at this stage) or about insulting the other side.
It may well be what it feels like to them - but I suspect data to back it up will be thin on the ground.
This isn’t healthcare reform, where it’s easy to identify a large and vocal group of ‘losers’, this is a truly massive amount of cash that large companies are saying they will invest in factories, R&D operations and dividends to shareholders (your pension fund!) - at the same time as allowing huge numbers of jobs to be created in replacing old bridges, roads, rail and pipelines. Maybe even a wall on the Mexican border to keep Trump’s fans happy.
The only obvious downsides are a possible dose of inflation as this cash works its way through the economy, and objections from some Democrats who think that large companies should pay their ‘fair’ share of corporation taxes on overseas income.
I’m no expert on the nuances of American congressional politics, but I’d imagine this is as close to a no-brainier as it’s possible to get.
Expect to see the bill soon, possibly at the same time as the row over the ‘debt ceiling’, a situation whereby Congreessional approval is needed to extend government borrowing. This has a hard deadline and leads to a complete shutdown of government the day the money runs out, if there’s no agreement as salaries and suppliers can’t be paid.
Money was ploughed into share buy-backs and dividends, and many of the biggest beneficiaries cut jobs.
"The CRS cited a series of reports into the benefits of repatriation, with a common theme that the 2004 program was "an ineffective means of increasing economic growth."
Maybe Trump will do better, but it seems premature to assume this will get him re-elected.
As an aside- I think the US economy is doing pretty well... yet Trump's ratings continue to decline.
It is indeed unfortunate that people are still doing the Armageddon/nirvana thing instead of focussing on minimising the undoubted minuses and accentuating the positives. So, for example, those who thought we should remain probably also think that we should remain in a customs union. They should be making that case or at least focussing on what we get out of the customs union rather than wailing about the end of times and wishing it was all not going to happen at all.
Overall (Trump Voters)
African Americans ......................................... 37% (16%)
White people...................................................21% (45%)
Native Americans ...........................................14% (17%)
AsianAmericans............................................... 2%
LatinoAmericans....................................... ..... 8% (5%)
Not sure ........................................................ 17%
Which of the following groups do you think faces the most discrimination in America today: Christians, Jews, or Muslims?
Overall (Trump Voters)
Muslims........................................................... 49% (22%)
Christians ........................................................ 29% (45%)
Jews................................................................... 8% (12%)
Not sure .......................................................... 14%
I imagine the gap between 'Trump voters' and not Trump voters will be even wider.
Which of the following groups do you think faces the most discrimination in America today: African Americans, Asian Americans, Latino Americans, Native Americans, or white people?
Clinton Voters (Trump Voters)
African Americans ......................................... 58% (16%)
White people.................................................... 5% (45%)
Native Americans ............................................ 9% (17%)
AsianAmericans............................................... 1% (3%)
LatinoAmericans.............................................. 13% (5%)
Not sure ..........................................................13% (13%)%
Which of the following groups do you think faces the most discrimination in America today: Christians, Jews, or Muslims?
Clinton Voters (Trump Voters)
Muslims........................................................... 77% (22%)
Christians .......................................................... 8% (45%)
Jews................................................................... 5% (12%)
Not sure .......................................................... 11% (12%)
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2017/PPP_Release_National_82317.pdf
It's part of the reason I voted to leave - they haven't the skill of the average Parish council, because they are increasingly engaged in issues that don't require it. And when important issues come up, they fudge them and leave the mess under the carpet for the next ill prepared minister. The only way this improves is if the standing of the job improves - and that will require the Parliament of these Islands to have real power again. They shouldn't be discussing children's lunchboxes, or five a day targets.
edit, p.s. you've answered this yourself.
The British equivalent numbers would be about £400bn brought onshore generating £40bn in tax. That’s a lot of infrastructure spending and a lot of extra money in the economy.
Wow
The reason that Westminster politicians are ill-equipped for decision making at the national level is that the country is too centralised and the political culture treats parliament as a giant parish council. Perhaps nowhere is the more apparent than in the ongoing use of the health service as a political football. If Westminster politicians were left to deal only with decisions that really need to be taken at UK level, they wouldn't be able to hide behind trivialities.
https://www.axios.com/the-white-house-reveals-a-renovated-west-wing-2476242788.html
"The Oval Office refresh featured new wallpaper and a rug used by Ronald Reagan, at least until Trump designs his own floor covering, which might necessitate more new wallpaper."
The mind boggles......
An economic migrant who survives the journey across the Mediterranean has a 73 per cent chance of remaining in the EU even if served with an order to leave, official statistics show.
Less than a third of those told to leave are removed, creating an incentive for economic migrants to join refugees striving to reach Europe.
The latest figures for migrant arrivals show a surge from African and Asian countries with historically lower rates of recognition of refugee status than states such as Syria and Eritrea, suggesting that many people may be moving for economic reasons."
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/eu-s-failure-over-illegal-migrants-fuels-crisis-7r99k5krn
Leadership surely means taking that first step and showing that you're prepared to trust people to respond to arguments. Not "we accept the vote" said in a grudging way that suggests that you're doing anything but. Nor even the stupidity of "Brexit means Brexit" since staying in the Single Market and leaving the political side would be consistent with the referendum result. But saying that given the referendum result, these are the choices which now need to be made, these are the consequences, etc.
Politicians have gone into a sulk, even those on the pro-Brexit side, and no-one is willing to think intelligently about what a post-Brexit Britain should be or do or how it should relate to its neighbours.
Even if you think that leaving the EU was the wrong thing, there was an intelligent and grown up way of going about it. If you think it was the right thing to do, you can hardly be impressed by the way we have gone about it since last June. We just don't look like a serious country. We're like a teenager who leaves home without a job or money and then sits in the street outside wailing rather than actually getting on with their independent life, hard as it may be.
https://twitter.com/dailymailuk/status/900619191627239424
I'm also unconvinced that Trump/the GOP would actually want to have much conditionality...
I suspect many of Trumps supporters will want jam today, not tomorrow or next week. And tax cuts won’t affect them, unless they are on consumer items, where, IIRC, most of the tax element is levied by the States or the municipality.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/new-labour-mp-says-she-will-not-hang-out-with-female-tory-mps-because-they-are-the-enemy-a3618456.html?amp
https://twitter.com/tarekfatah/status/900385619024674816
Presumably to get a larger share repatriated, you need to offer a lower rate.
The full 2.5tn at 5% would be $125bn of extra tax revenue.
Not to be sneezed at, but as a one-off injection that would be 3% of federal budget for one year.
But I may be suffering from naivety on this score. The attempt is surely worth doing, no?
Sheesh, your analogy was terrible. It was painful trying to work with it.
But the rest of the world is not really shouting at us with new opportunities. They see a country which will be a supplicant. So yes we might get some deals but they will come at a price and we will be the weaker party. We will no longer be the entry point for the rest of the Single Market so our existing skills / job are less attractive. We will have to pay back the money we owe so will have less to spend - at least in the short-term - and we seem currently to be asking our existing family to give us all sorts of things which are incompatible with really being independent.
All this may be worth it but there is an element of self-delusion in how we're approaching our independent life. So rubbish analogy though it may be there is, to my mind, too much of the teenager in Britain's current approach for my liking. The only way we will succeed is by behaving like a serious grown up country which has taken a serious grown up step and is getting on with it in a sober way. I look at May, Fox, Johnson and Davis and do not see people who are giving that impression to us - let alone to the outside world. I see Corbyn and McDonnell and Abbott and I see the same, only wearing Che Guevara T-shirts.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/sorry-boris-johnson-britain-has-little-to-offer-australia-20170731-gxm1di.html
"Sorry Boris Johnson, little Britain has little to offer Australia"
Kemi has friends from across parties, and is saddened but not surprised to hear that some Labour MPs wouldn’t consider it: “They genuinely believe that we are vermin.” She goes on: “I have family members who vote Labour. If you’re in a position where all the people you know think and look like you, you have a problem.”
http://www.refinery29.uk/2017/08/167058/female-mps-2017
For months now I've been saying 'watch the popularity rating'. When all is said and done, it's this which will determine whether he goes, and when. Below 40% is dangerous, below 35% and he's probably a goner. He's just dipped a fraction below 37%, close to his all time low of 36.6% - so bad, but not necessarily terminal.
There's a new factor though. Support for the Republicans in the race for Congress has suddenly fallen off a cliff - down from 39.1% to 36.4%. So it looks like the strategy of distancing the Party from Trump isn't working, and he's taking it down with him.
The Republicans have an immensly strong position in Senate for the next round of voting and it would take something cataclysmic for them to lose control but if both popularity rating drop below 35%, the Party will have to do something.
I cannot see it sleepwalking to electoral catastrophe.
And nothing to do w what I posted, but good morning anyway!
We've got a lot of making up to do... Not just to Australia but to the whole of the Commonwealth.
However the position that we have "nothing to offer" seems at odds with the PM of Australia being the first leader on the phone after the referendum saying he wants to be the first in the queue with a trade deal...
"Ms Phillips added that women were “entirely missing” from Labour’s industrial strategy because it was all about “men with shovels”."
In your comments you make snide jokes about Leavers on a daily basis, and twist every story to be bad for Brexit as do all the other hardcore Remainers. It's like watching a 70s racist blame the black bloke for everything that goes wrong. Telling each other how clever you all are is just a delaying mechanism for coming to terms w defeat. It's probably time to relax about it. Try Headspace
(I've previously recommended McDonald's to friends' children as it can provide sound training and the basis of a good career especially for non-graduates, despite the sneers it, and retail generally, often receives.)
I realised for the first time that there is a consensus of sorts in the UK about Brexit. Both Remainers and Leavers want Brexit to change things as little as possible. In the Remainers' case it's about damage limitation. In the Leavers' case it is an expectation that nothing important will change after Brexit - the absence of a Project Fear essentially. Patrick Minford's wildly misinformed report that Britain will be £135 billion better off after Brexit is predicated on us continuing to trade on exactly the same terms after Brexit as now.
I have always thought Leavers were making a mistake in thinking there would be no real change with Brexit but missed the much more important point that they don't actually want there to be change. They may talk, as Professor Minford does, of opportunities but virtually no-one is prepared to take responsibility for effecting change. Certainly none of the politicians are. I expect the job to end up with the civil servants who, in the absence of a steer from politicians, will aim not to rock the boat. The recent flurry of "position papers" are civil servants at their finest, articulating fluently about nothing much at all.
For the first time I am more concerned about the EU negotiators than the UK ones. We are waiting for them to tell us what's what - we are not going to do it ourselves - and therefore rely on the kindness of those we have estranged. I hope they are tolerant of our stupidity, give us our figleaves of control - our indirect jurisdictions, our new and special relationships - and don't screw us over just because they can. The UK is worth keeping in the EU camp.
https://twitter.com/philipoltermann/status/900305130876268545
One half angry we're leaving in name only, one half angry that we're leaving at all.
Well. I suspect it'd more like a fifth either side, with three-fifths just wanting things to be ok.
Incidentally, in the future I might start writing concise early tip posts on my blog (still mention them here, though) and other things, but that's a matter to be discussed after the Belgian Grand Prix.
I've been predicting that for months.
Still not on the ONS website. The details will be interesting.
EDIT: here it is:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/august2017
Do we have any exit checks in place yet ? Keeping an accurate tab on migration numbers is important in my opinion whether you're in favour of more migration or not.
Apparently the government had simply assumed students overstayed here but apparently they may not be doing so.
I'd have thought it might be a rather good idea to check so we can make correct service provision for hospitals etc...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24624383