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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theresa’s Tories still being hit by the GE2017 branding gamble

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  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107
    TOPPING said:

    What is it that Theresa May is going to say or do that will change people's opinions of her again? It's hard to imagine in practice.

    Something will happen before long that will give her the opportunity to re-assert herself. Whether or not she's up to it remains to be seen.

    I doubt it personally.
    You've either got the want to go for a drink with factor or you haven't.

    She transparently doesn't have it, which was fine when the perception was we need a harsh taskmistress to get us through Brexit. But this no longer applies now either - you can't be a harsh taskmistress if no one needs to listen to you and your threats.

    She now just has to soldier on.
    Oh yes, but before long an "event" will occur that is out of her hands, another Grenfell or Borough Market. Her reaction may make or break her.

    Anyway I'm not bothered tbh, she is typical of a modern politician, she stands for nothing, she could go on holiday 40 weeks of the year nothing would change.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,851

    What is it that Theresa May is going to say or do that will change people's opinions of her again? It's hard to imagine in practice.

    Something will happen before long that will give her the opportunity to re-assert herself. Whether or not she's up to it remains to be seen.

    I doubt it personally.
    I'd be surprised if Argentina invades the Falklands this side of the next General Election.

    Where else might she start a war?
    http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/638679/North-Korea-Kim-Jong-Un-Donald-Trump-war-UK-back-America-World-War-3-fears
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,074
    Mr. 619, I do recall the ITV political jester-in-chief asking the terrible and hard-hitting question: "If you become PM would you give up your allotment?"

    How Corbyn coped with that I really don't know.

    On a more serious note, I forget the precise wording but Peston had a horrendous propaganda piece where he attacked May for trying to have it both ways on terrorism after the Manchester attack (something along the lines of trying to all be together, which was broadly in line, I think, with her speech, and an invented attack that she was having a go at Muslims).

    The political media in this country is horrendous and is perhaps worse now than it's been before. Old hands here may remember, around 2009, I condemned them for blaming Brown for things that weren't his fault.
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107
    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:
    Spanish police do seem very effective. Gunning down 5 terrorists in a resort like cambrils before they got anyone was particularly so, as not a high profile area.

    Finnish plod not slouches either. About time our boys in blue got firearms as a routine.
    Did you miss the Borough Market incident ?
    The equivalent to Cambrils would perhaps be Cromer.


    You think those drunken pikeys should have been shot dead on Saturday night ?

    Not sure I'd go that far..
    If you'd had dealings with them you'd have little sympathy.
  • TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:
    Spanish police do seem very effective. Gunning down 5 terrorists in a resort like cambrils before they got anyone was particularly so, as not a high profile area.

    Finnish plod not slouches either. About time our boys in blue got firearms as a routine.
    Did you miss the Borough Market incident ?
    The equivalent to Cambrils would perhaps be Cromer.


    You think those drunken pikeys should have been shot dead on Saturday night ?

    Not sure I'd go that far..
    I have no qualms about using Pikeys as bait for potential terrorists/suicide bombers.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Not sure this fits the Remain narrative, however some of us have been saying the same for a while now:

    http://commentcentral.co.uk/brexit-negotiations-the-davis-poker-face/

    The cards are face up. Limited scope for bluffing.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,229

    619 said:

    Maybe, but she needs to crack on really. Her not condemning Trump was a mis-step: that's a free hit on an unpopular president saying stupid things.

    She did condemn him, in no uncertain terms.
    To be fair, she did unequivocally condemn the views he expressed - in no uncertain terms - without directly condemning the President of the United States - which is quite proper. Only the terminally dense could not spot what she was doing. It's one thing for Corbyn to condemn Trump - it's quite another for the PM.
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784

    What is it that Theresa May is going to say or do that will change people's opinions of her again? It's hard to imagine in practice.

    Something will happen before long that will give her the opportunity to re-assert herself. Whether or not she's up to it remains to be seen.

    I doubt it personally.
    I'd be surprised if Argentina invades the Falklands this side of the next General Election.

    Where else might she start a war?
    It could be related to the rising threat of Islam to the UK and Europe.
    Manchester and London Bridge happened pre-election. Didn't help her
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,963

    What is it that Theresa May is going to say or do that will change people's opinions of her again? It's hard to imagine in practice.

    Something will happen before long that will give her the opportunity to re-assert herself. Whether or not she's up to it remains to be seen.

    I doubt it personally.
    I'd be surprised if Argentina invades the Falklands this side of the next General Election.

    Where else might she start a war?
    Venezuela. Now that would put Corbyn in a seriously awkward position and would cause a Syria-style split in the PLP (though most foreign interventions would do the latter anyway).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    edited August 2017
    Actually both BMG and Survation and ICM have given the Tories 42% in post election polls according to the chart above ie the same as the UK share they got at the general election and only 1% below their GB score. I am also not sure the local election results were as 'superb' as OGH suggests given the Tories got 37%, 6% below the 43% they actually got at the general election.

    May's big mistake was the dementia tax, the Tories will go into the next general election in 2019/20 having dumped that and under a new leader, probably Davis, Boris or JRM.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    edited August 2017
    619 said:

    No, she can't turn it round, but she can salvage her reputation and depart with grace, if Brexit can be negotiated without total chaos. How big an 'if' that is remains to be seen.

    Although many of her woes are self-inflicted, it's also the case that the media like to knock down those that they have built up. Before the election, she was getting an over-favourable press, and a correction was inevitable. What was surprising was the speed and ferocity of that correction.

    Jeremy Corbyn has arguably followed the reverse trajectory, but Labour shouldn't kid themselves that the fundamentals have changed.

    Maybe, but she needs to crack on really. Her not condemning Trump was a mis-step: that's a free hit on an unpopular president saying stupid things.
    The President of our largest destination for exports who we need a trade deal or at least favourable trading terms with as soon as Brexit is completed, not a good idea to attack him
  • 619 said:

    What is it that Theresa May is going to say or do that will change people's opinions of her again? It's hard to imagine in practice.

    Something will happen before long that will give her the opportunity to re-assert herself. Whether or not she's up to it remains to be seen.

    I doubt it personally.
    I'd be surprised if Argentina invades the Falklands this side of the next General Election.

    Where else might she start a war?
    It could be related to the rising threat of Islam to the UK and Europe.
    Manchester and London Bridge happened pre-election. Didn't help her
    The terrorism could get a lot worse in the next few years though and require some sort of major policy response.

    Whether she will be up to the job is another matter though.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,971

    What is it that Theresa May is going to say or do that will change people's opinions of her again? It's hard to imagine in practice.

    Something will happen before long that will give her the opportunity to re-assert herself. Whether or not she's up to it remains to be seen.

    I doubt it personally.
    I'd be surprised if Argentina invades the Falklands this side of the next General Election.

    Where else might she start a war?
    Doesn't that line of thought require that she win such a conflict ?
    On current form, that's something of an heroic assumption.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682

    She's a loser, to quote a message aimed at another Tory PM..

    You have sat too long here for any good you have been doing. Depart, I say, and let us have done with you. In the name of God, go.

    If she is a loser what does that make Major 1997, Hague 2001, Howard 2005 and Cameron 2010 all of whom won fewer seats than she did? Only Cameron 2015 and Major 1992 have won more seats as Tory leader than May did
  • HYUFD said:

    619 said:

    No, she can't turn it round, but she can salvage her reputation and depart with grace, if Brexit can be negotiated without total chaos. How big an 'if' that is remains to be seen.

    Although many of her woes are self-inflicted, it's also the case that the media like to knock down those that they have built up. Before the election, she was getting an over-favourable press, and a correction was inevitable. What was surprising was the speed and ferocity of that correction.

    Jeremy Corbyn has arguably followed the reverse trajectory, but Labour shouldn't kid themselves that the fundamentals have changed.

    Maybe, but she needs to crack on really. Her not condemning Trump was a mis-step: that's a free hit on an unpopular president saying stupid things.
    The President of our largest destination for exports who we need a trade deal or at least favourable trading terms with as soon as Brexit is completed, not a good idea to attack him
    Exactly. Why the flip is virtue signaling to achieve nothing in particular more important than getting possibly the most important trade deal in our history?
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    619 said:

    What is it that Theresa May is going to say or do that will change people's opinions of her again? It's hard to imagine in practice.

    Maybe Corbyn being actually scrutinised properly as now people expect him to win the next election. The last one was all about May and Tory cock-ups.
    The sun was basically calling him a terrorist in the lead up to the election and making him out to be a total idiot.

    I don't buy this 'Corbyn was given an easy time' argument I keep seeing
    There was virtually no detailed scrutiny of Labour's economic policies for instance. I think the point is that many people voted on the assumption that Corbyn and Labour had no chance of forming a government and that won't apply next time. What impact that will have is impossible to say as there is clearly both a lot of volatility (big changes during the campaign) and Brexit looming. It could be a case of "easy come easy" go for Corbyn's increase of the Labour vote. Labour will continue to have an energised membership but with what long term impact on voting and turn out? If you add in to the mix the potential for damaging splits in both Labour and Tory parties then things are even less easy to predict than ever!
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,405
    edited August 2017

    Not sure this fits the Remain narrative, however some of us have been saying the same for a while now:

    http://commentcentral.co.uk/brexit-negotiations-the-davis-poker-face/

    The slight problem with that analysis is that Barnier isn't playing poker. Davis isn't a good player if he thinks Barnier is playing poor poker when he's actually playing a totally different game.

    PS The game Barnier is playing is Monopoly. He owns three quarters of the properties on the board. All of them have hotels on them.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,971
    HYUFD said:

    She's a loser, to quote a message aimed at another Tory PM..

    You have sat too long here for any good you have been doing. Depart, I say, and let us have done with you. In the name of God, go.

    If she is a loser what does that make Major 1997, Hague 2001, Howard 2005 and Cameron 2010 all of whom won fewer seats than she did? Only Cameron 2015 and Major 1992 have won more seats as Tory leader than May did
    And how many of those had the luxury of deciding the timing of the election, and choosing the battleground on which it was fought ?
  • HYUFD said:

    She's a loser, to quote a message aimed at another Tory PM..

    You have sat too long here for any good you have been doing. Depart, I say, and let us have done with you. In the name of God, go.

    If she is a loser what does that make Major 1997, Hague 2001, Howard 2005 and Cameron 2010 all of whom won fewer seats than she did? Only Cameron 2015 and Major 1992 have won more seats as Tory leader than May did
    All of those made net seat gains at a general election bar Major.

    But for Ruth Davidson Mrs May would have seen the loss of nearly 10% of the parliamentary party.

    All about the direction of travel in terms of seats.

    Bums on seats is what wins you elections.
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    edited August 2017

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:
    Spanish police do seem very effective. Gunning down 5 terrorists in a resort like cambrils before they got anyone was particularly so, as not a high profile area.

    Finnish plod not slouches either. About time our boys in blue got firearms as a routine.
    Did you miss the Borough Market incident ?
    The equivalent to Cambrils would perhaps be Cromer.


    You think those drunken pikeys should have been shot dead on Saturday night ?

    Not sure I'd go that far..
    If you'd had dealings with them you'd have little sympathy.
    Indeed. Anyone who has had the misfortune to bump into them in a betting related capacity would be passing out the ammunition.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682

    What is it that Theresa May is going to say or do that will change people's opinions of her again? It's hard to imagine in practice.

    Something will happen before long that will give her the opportunity to re-assert herself. Whether or not she's up to it remains to be seen.

    I doubt it personally.
    I'd be surprised if Argentina invades the Falklands this side of the next General Election.

    Where else might she start a war?
    The new Argentine President is the most reluctant to push the Falklands since Galtieri invaded so that is unlikely and Spain is not going to invade Gibraltar.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    HYUFD said:

    She's a loser, to quote a message aimed at another Tory PM..

    You have sat too long here for any good you have been doing. Depart, I say, and let us have done with you. In the name of God, go.

    If she is a loser what does that make Major 1997, Hague 2001, Howard 2005 and Cameron 2010 all of whom won fewer seats than she did? Only Cameron 2015 and Major 1992 have won more seats as Tory leader than May did
    All of those made net seat gains at a general election bar Major.

    But for Ruth Davidson Mrs May would have seen the loss of nearly 10% of the parliamentary party.

    All about the direction of travel in terms of seats.

    Bums on seats is what wins you elections.
    And May won more of them than Major 1997, Hague 2001, Howard 2005 and Cameron 2010...!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682

    HYUFD said:

    619 said:

    No, she can't turn it round, but she can salvage her reputation and depart with grace, if Brexit can be negotiated without total chaos. How big an 'if' that is remains to be seen.

    Although many of her woes are self-inflicted, it's also the case that the media like to knock down those that they have built up. Before the election, she was getting an over-favourable press, and a correction was inevitable. What was surprising was the speed and ferocity of that correction.

    Jeremy Corbyn has arguably followed the reverse trajectory, but Labour shouldn't kid themselves that the fundamentals have changed.

    Maybe, but she needs to crack on really. Her not condemning Trump was a mis-step: that's a free hit on an unpopular president saying stupid things.
    The President of our largest destination for exports who we need a trade deal or at least favourable trading terms with as soon as Brexit is completed, not a good idea to attack him
    Exactly. Why the flip is virtue signaling to achieve nothing in particular more important than getting possibly the most important trade deal in our history?
    Exactly, we need favourable trafing terms with the US (even under Trump) more than the US needs favourable trading terms with us
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,247

    What is it that Theresa May is going to say or do that will change people's opinions of her again? It's hard to imagine in practice.

    The answer to that is that she'd have to exercise a piece of leadership so extraordinary that it made people realise they'd been wrong about her during the campaign.
  • HYUFD said:

    She's a loser, to quote a message aimed at another Tory PM..

    You have sat too long here for any good you have been doing. Depart, I say, and let us have done with you. In the name of God, go.

    If she is a loser what does that make Major 1997, Hague 2001, Howard 2005 and Cameron 2010 all of whom won fewer seats than she did? Only Cameron 2015 and Major 1992 have won more seats as Tory leader than May did
    All of those made net seat gains at a general election bar Major.

    But for Ruth Davidson Mrs May would have seen the loss of nearly 10% of the parliamentary party.

    All about the direction of travel in terms of seats.

    Bums on seats is what wins you elections.
    But for winning some of the seats she would have won less seats and lost. Surely this applies to any election winner in a close contest?

    It's easier to win seats when you start off with fewer and when your party isn't starting to look tired after 7 years in government.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Scott_P said:
    What an excellent idea, if only there was a union of countries across Europe co-operating on product standards to smooth trade. It would solve the Irish border too...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,851
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    619 said:

    No, she can't turn it round, but she can salvage her reputation and depart with grace, if Brexit can be negotiated without total chaos. How big an 'if' that is remains to be seen.

    Although many of her woes are self-inflicted, it's also the case that the media like to knock down those that they have built up. Before the election, she was getting an over-favourable press, and a correction was inevitable. What was surprising was the speed and ferocity of that correction.

    Jeremy Corbyn has arguably followed the reverse trajectory, but Labour shouldn't kid themselves that the fundamentals have changed.

    Maybe, but she needs to crack on really. Her not condemning Trump was a mis-step: that's a free hit on an unpopular president saying stupid things.
    The President of our largest destination for exports who we need a trade deal or at least favourable trading terms with as soon as Brexit is completed, not a good idea to attack him
    Exactly. Why the flip is virtue signaling to achieve nothing in particular more important than getting possibly the most important trade deal in our history?
    Exactly, we need favourable trafing terms with the US (even under Trump) more than the US needs favourable trading terms with us
    It's ironic that most of the things we need for Brexit to be a success can be best delivered by remaining in the EU.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,851
    https://twitter.com/GuyVerhofstadt/status/899662378723414016

    Look at the front page of the document.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    It is, isn't it. If it's compliant today it'll still be compliant after we have Left.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    619 said:

    No, she can't turn it round, but she can salvage her reputation and depart with grace, if Brexit can be negotiated without total chaos. How big an 'if' that is remains to be seen.

    Although many of her woes are self-inflicted, it's also the case that the media like to knock down those that they have built up. Before the election, she was getting an over-favourable press, and a correction was inevitable. What was surprising was the speed and ferocity of that correction.

    Jeremy Corbyn has arguably followed the reverse trajectory, but Labour shouldn't kid themselves that the fundamentals have changed.

    Maybe, but she needs to crack on really. Her not condemning Trump was a mis-step: that's a free hit on an unpopular president saying stupid things.
    The President of our largest destination for exports who we need a trade deal or at least favourable trading terms with as soon as Brexit is completed, not a good idea to attack him
    Exactly. Why the flip is virtue signaling to achieve nothing in particular more important than getting possibly the most important trade deal in our history?
    Exactly, we need favourable trafing terms with the US (even under Trump) more than the US needs favourable trading terms with us
    It's ironic that most of the things we need for Brexit to be a success can be best delivered by remaining in the EU.
    That is the paradox. The best Brexit is no Brexit.

    Still, think of all that cheap Australian iron ore that we could import if we were free of EU shackles.
  • HYUFD said:

    She's a loser, to quote a message aimed at another Tory PM..

    You have sat too long here for any good you have been doing. Depart, I say, and let us have done with you. In the name of God, go.

    If she is a loser what does that make Major 1997, Hague 2001, Howard 2005 and Cameron 2010 all of whom won fewer seats than she did? Only Cameron 2015 and Major 1992 have won more seats as Tory leader than May did
    All of those made net seat gains at a general election bar Major.

    But for Ruth Davidson Mrs May would have seen the loss of nearly 10% of the parliamentary party.

    All about the direction of travel in terms of seats.

    Bums on seats is what wins you elections.
    But for winning some of the seats she would have won less seats and lost. Surely this applies to any election winner in a close contest?

    It's easier to win seats when you start off with fewer and when your party isn't starting to look tired after 7 years in government.
    Dave managed it but two years ago.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    619 said:

    No, she can't turn it round, but she can salvage her reputation and depart with grace, if Brexit can be negotiated without total chaos. How big an 'if' that is remains to be seen.

    Although many of her woes are self-inflicted, it's also the case that the media like to knock down those that they have built up. Before the election, she was getting an over-favourable press, and a correction was inevitable. What was surprising was the speed and ferocity of that correction.

    Jeremy Corbyn has arguably followed the reverse trajectory, but Labour shouldn't kid themselves that the fundamentals have changed.

    Maybe, but she needs to crack on really. Her not condemning Trump was a mis-step: that's a free hit on an unpopular president saying stupid things.
    The President of our largest destination for exports who we need a trade deal or at least favourable trading terms with as soon as Brexit is completed, not a good idea to attack him
    Exactly. Why the flip is virtue signaling to achieve nothing in particular more important than getting possibly the most important trade deal in our history?
    Exactly, we need favourable trafing terms with the US (even under Trump) more than the US needs favourable trading terms with us
    It's ironic that most of the things we need for Brexit to be a success can be best delivered by remaining in the EU.
    That is the paradox. The best Brexit is no Brexit.
    Too late...
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107
    midwinter said:

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:
    Spanish police do seem very effective. Gunning down 5 terrorists in a resort like cambrils before they got anyone was particularly so, as not a high profile area.

    Finnish plod not slouches either. About time our boys in blue got firearms as a routine.
    Did you miss the Borough Market incident ?
    The equivalent to Cambrils would perhaps be Cromer.


    You think those drunken pikeys should have been shot dead on Saturday night ?

    Not sure I'd go that far..
    If you'd had dealings with them you'd have little sympathy.
    Indeed. Anyone who has had the misfortune to bump into them in a betting related capacity would be passing out the ammunition.
    Why on earth would you be betting with them?
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    edited August 2017

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    619 said:

    No, she can't turn it round, but she can salvage her reputation and depart with grace, if Brexit can be negotiated without total chaos. How big an 'if' that is remains to be seen.

    Although many of her woes are self-inflicted, it's also the case that the media like to knock down those that they have built up. Before the election, she was getting an over-favourable press, and a correction was inevitable. What was surprising was the speed and ferocity of that correction.

    Jeremy Corbyn has arguably followed the reverse trajectory, but Labour shouldn't kid themselves that the fundamentals have changed.

    Maybe, but she needs to crack on really. Her not condemning Trump was a mis-step: that's a free hit on an unpopular president saying stupid things.
    The President of our largest destination for exports who we need a trade deal or at least favourable trading terms with as soon as Brexit is completed, not a good idea to attack him
    Exactly. Why the flip is virtue signaling to achieve nothing in particular more important than getting possibly the most important trade deal in our history?
    Exactly, we need favourable trafing terms with the US (even under Trump) more than the US needs favourable trading terms with us
    It's ironic that most of the things we need for Brexit to be a success can be best delivered by remaining in the EU.
    That is the paradox. The best Brexit is no Brexit.

    Still, think of all that cheap Australian iron ore that we could import if we were free of EU shackles.
    Actually, you're nearly right. It is almost a paradox: our politicians have, over the last 25 years, and totally without our consent, worked us into a position that was in itself unsustainable but where any change would be damaging in the short term, the long term or both. Any chess player would recognise this as zugzwang.

    The obvious thing to do, of course, is take the short term hit.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    edited August 2017

    HYUFD said:

    She's a loser, to quote a message aimed at another Tory PM..

    You have sat too long here for any good you have been doing. Depart, I say, and let us have done with you. In the name of God, go.

    If she is a loser what does that make Major 1997, Hague 2001, Howard 2005 and Cameron 2010 all of whom won fewer seats than she did? Only Cameron 2015 and Major 1992 have won more seats as Tory leader than May did
    All of those made net seat gains at a general election bar Major.

    But for Ruth Davidson Mrs May would have seen the loss of nearly 10% of the parliamentary party.

    All about the direction of travel in terms of seats.

    Bums on seats is what wins you elections.
    But for winning some of the seats she would have won less seats and lost. Surely this applies to any election winner in a close contest?

    It's easier to win seats when you start off with fewer and when your party isn't starting to look tired after 7 years in government.
    In that situation a less than vain PM than May would not have called an election three years early. GE2017 was a TMay vanity project which went plop.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    She's a loser, to quote a message aimed at another Tory PM..

    You have sat too long here for any good you have been doing. Depart, I say, and let us have done with you. In the name of God, go.

    If she is a loser what does that make Major 1997, Hague 2001, Howard 2005 and Cameron 2010 all of whom won fewer seats than she did? Only Cameron 2015 and Major 1992 have won more seats as Tory leader than May did
    And how many of those had the luxury of deciding the timing of the election, and choosing the battleground on which it was fought ?
    Choosing the election date makes virtually no difference and as Hague discovered in 2001 with his 'Save the Pound campaign no leader can pre determine the ground on which an election is fought
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Scott_P said:
    What an excellent idea, if only there was a union of countries across Europe co-operating on product standards to smooth trade. It would solve the Irish border too...
    Set your time machine for 1975 - they had that back then - now its a one way ticket to a federal superstate with its own army.

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    What is it that Theresa May is going to say or do that will change people's opinions of her again? It's hard to imagine in practice.

    The answer to that is that she'd have to exercise a piece of leadership so extraordinary that it made people realise they'd been wrong about her during the campaign.
    This is a woman who cannot interact with people.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    619 said:

    No, she can't turn it round, but she can salvage her reputation and depart with grace, if Brexit can be negotiated without total chaos. How big an 'if' that is remains to be seen.

    Although many of her woes are self-inflicted, it's also the case that the media like to knock down those that they have built up. Before the election, she was getting an over-favourable press, and a correction was inevitable. What was surprising was the speed and ferocity of that correction.

    Jeremy Corbyn has arguably followed the reverse trajectory, but Labour shouldn't kid themselves that the fundamentals have changed.

    Maybe, but she needs to crack on really. Her not condemning Trump was a mis-step: that's a free hit on an unpopular president saying stupid things.
    The President of our largest destination for exports who we need a trade deal or at least favourable trading terms with as soon as Brexit is completed, not a good idea to attack him
    Exactly. Why the flip is virtue signaling to achieve nothing in particular more important than getting possibly the most important trade deal in our history?
    Exactly, we need favourable trafing terms with the US (even under Trump) more than the US needs favourable trading terms with us
    It's ironic that most of the things we need for Brexit to be a success can be best delivered by remaining in the EU.
    That is the paradox. The best Brexit is no Brexit.
    Too late...
    I agree.

    The car crash unprepared Brexit is on the cards for March 2019, but it looks increasingly certain that we will be looking to rejoin (with our tail between our legs) fairly shortly afterwards.

    I expect we will be full members again before I retire in 15 years.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    edited August 2017

    HYUFD said:

    She's a loser, to quote a message aimed at another Tory PM..

    You have sat too long here for any good you have been doing. Depart, I say, and let us have done with you. In the name of God, go.

    If she is a loser what does that make Major 1997, Hague 2001, Howard 2005 and Cameron 2010 all of whom won fewer seats than she did? Only Cameron 2015 and Major 1992 have won more seats as Tory leader than May did
    All of those made net seat gains at a general election bar Major.

    But for Ruth Davidson Mrs May would have seen the loss of nearly 10% of the parliamentary party.

    All about the direction of travel in terms of seats.

    Bums on seats is what wins you elections.
    No it is absolute seat numbers which matters otherwise you end up with the absurd argument that Hague and Howard did better in 2001 and 2005 when they lost the general election than Major did in 1992 when he won the general election
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    HYUFD said:

    She's a loser, to quote a message aimed at another Tory PM..

    You have sat too long here for any good you have been doing. Depart, I say, and let us have done with you. In the name of God, go.

    If she is a loser what does that make Major 1997, Hague 2001, Howard 2005 and Cameron 2010 all of whom won fewer seats than she did? Only Cameron 2015 and Major 1992 have won more seats as Tory leader than May did
    All of those made net seat gains at a general election bar Major.

    But for Ruth Davidson Mrs May would have seen the loss of nearly 10% of the parliamentary party.

    All about the direction of travel in terms of seats.

    Bums on seats is what wins you elections.
    But for winning some of the seats she would have won less seats and lost. Surely this applies to any election winner in a close contest?

    It's easier to win seats when you start off with fewer and when your party isn't starting to look tired after 7 years in government.
    In that situation a less than vain PM than May would not have called an election three years early. GE2017 was a TMay vanity project which went plop.
    You still don't understand why she called the election, do you?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,247

    What is it that Theresa May is going to say or do that will change people's opinions of her again? It's hard to imagine in practice.

    The answer to that is that she'd have to exercise a piece of leadership so extraordinary that it made people realise they'd been wrong about her during the campaign.
    This is a woman who cannot interact with people.
    It baffles me.

    I should have listened to my gut instinct following her total failure to answer my question in 2002.

    I wanted to believe I was wrong, so I did.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    edited August 2017

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    619 said:

    No, she can't turn it round, but she can salvage her reputation and depart with grace, if Brexit can be negotiated without total chaos. How big an 'if' that is remains to be seen.

    Although many of her woes are self-inflicted, it's also the case that the media like to knock down those that they have built up. Before the election, she was getting an over-favourable press, and a correction was inevitable. What was surprising was the speed and ferocity of that correction.

    Jeremy Corbyn has arguably followed the reverse trajectory, but Labour shouldn't kid themselves that the fundamentals have changed.

    Maybe, but she needs to crack on really. Her not condemning Trump was a mis-step: that's a free hit on an unpopular president saying stupid things.
    The President of our largest destination for exports who we need a trade deal or at least favourable trading terms with as soon as Brexit is completed, not a good idea to attack him
    Exactly. Why the flip is virtue signaling to achieve nothing in particular more important than getting possibly the most important trade deal in our history?
    Exactly, we need favourable trafing terms with the US (even under Trump) more than the US needs favourable trading terms with us
    It's ironic that most of the things we need for Brexit to be a success can be best delivered by remaining in the EU.
    For most Leavers reducing immigration is what will make a success of Brexit
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:
    What an excellent idea, if only there was a union of countries across Europe co-operating on product standards to smooth trade. It would solve the Irish border too...
    Set your time machine for 1975 - they had that back then - now its a one way ticket to a federal superstate with its own army.

    The single market didn't come in until Mrs Thatcher pushed it through in the late Eighties.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,851

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    619 said:

    No, she can't turn it round, but she can salvage her reputation and depart with grace, if Brexit can be negotiated without total chaos. How big an 'if' that is remains to be seen.

    Although many of her woes are self-inflicted, it's also the case that the media like to knock down those that they have built up. Before the election, she was getting an over-favourable press, and a correction was inevitable. What was surprising was the speed and ferocity of that correction.

    Jeremy Corbyn has arguably followed the reverse trajectory, but Labour shouldn't kid themselves that the fundamentals have changed.

    Maybe, but she needs to crack on really. Her not condemning Trump was a mis-step: that's a free hit on an unpopular president saying stupid things.
    The President of our largest destination for exports who we need a trade deal or at least favourable trading terms with as soon as Brexit is completed, not a good idea to attack him
    Exactly. Why the flip is virtue signaling to achieve nothing in particular more important than getting possibly the most important trade deal in our history?
    Exactly, we need favourable trafing terms with the US (even under Trump) more than the US needs favourable trading terms with us
    It's ironic that most of the things we need for Brexit to be a success can be best delivered by remaining in the EU.
    That is the paradox. The best Brexit is no Brexit.

    Still, think of all that cheap Australian iron ore that we could import if we were free of EU shackles.
    Actually, you're nearly right. It is almost a paradox: our politicians have, over the last 25 years, and totally without our consent, worked us into a position that was in itself unsustainable but where any change would be damaging in the short term, the long term or both. Any chess player would recognise this as zugzwang.

    The obvious thing to do, of course, is take the short term hit.
    We have these things called elections in this country. You may remember a particularly crushing verdict of the people in which the following matter was at stake. You are a democrat, aren't you?

    In six weeks time, the British Prime Minister, myself or Mr Blair, will go to Amsterdam to negotiate a treaty and what’s decided there will determine whether we go down the route to a federal Europe or whether we say, “No, I don’t believe a federal Europe is right for Britain.”

    I shall say no. Mr Blair, Mr Blair will say yes.


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lLStTx7bIRk
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,941
    HYUFD said:

    Actually both BMG and Survation and ICM have given the Tories 42% in post election polls according to the chart above ie the same as the UK share they got at the general election and only 1% below their GB score. I am also not sure the local election results were as 'superb' as OGH suggests given the Tories got 37%, 6% below the 43% they actually got at the general election.

    May's big mistake was the dementia tax, the Tories will go into the next general election in 2019/20 having dumped that and under a new leader, probably Davis, Boris or JRM.

    JRM, really? Wasn't that just silly season stuff.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    619 said:

    No, she can't turn it round, but she can salvage her reputation and depart with grace, if Brexit can be negotiated without total chaos. How big an 'if' that is remains to be seen.

    Although many of her woes are self-inflicted, it's also the case that the media like to knock down those that they have built up. Before the election, she was getting an over-favourable press, and a correction was inevitable. What was surprising was the speed and ferocity of that correction.

    Jeremy Corbyn has arguably followed the reverse trajectory, but Labour shouldn't kid themselves that the fundamentals have changed.

    Maybe, but she needs to crack on really. Her not condemning Trump was a mis-step: that's a free hit on an unpopular president saying stupid things.
    The President of our largest destination for exports who we need a trade deal or at least favourable trading terms with as soon as Brexit is completed, not a good idea to attack him
    Exactly. Why the flip is virtue signaling to achieve nothing in particular more important than getting possibly the most important trade deal in our history?
    Exactly, we need favourable trafing terms with the US (even under Trump) more than the US needs favourable trading terms with us
    It's ironic that most of the things we need for Brexit to be a success can be best delivered by remaining in the EU.
    That is the paradox. The best Brexit is no Brexit.
    Too late...
    I agree.

    The car crash unprepared Brexit is on the cards for March 2019, but it looks increasingly certain that we will be looking to rejoin (with our tail between our legs) fairly shortly afterwards.

    I expect we will be full members again before I retire in 15 years.
    You should place some money on that series of events down at Ladbrokes - you could probably retire much much earlier if it comes in...



  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    619 said:

    No, she can't turn it round, but she can salvage her reputation and depart with grace, if Brexit can be negotiated without total chaos. How big an 'if' that is remains to be seen.

    Although many of her woes are self-inflicted, it's also the case that the media like to knock down those that they have built up. Before the election, she was getting an over-favourable press, and a correction was inevitable. What was surprising was the speed and ferocity of that correction.

    Jeremy Corbyn has arguably followed the reverse trajectory, but Labour shouldn't kid themselves that the fundamentals have changed.

    Maybe, but she needs to crack on really. Her not condemning Trump was a mis-step: that's a free hit on an unpopular president saying stupid things.
    The President of our largest destination for exports who we need a trade deal or at least favourable trading terms with as soon as Brexit is completed, not a good idea to attack him
    Exactly. Why the flip is virtue signaling to achieve nothing in particular more important than getting possibly the most important trade deal in our history?
    Exactly, we need favourable trafing terms with the US (even under Trump) more than the US needs favourable trading terms with us
    It's ironic that most of the things we need for Brexit to be a success can be best delivered by remaining in the EU.
    That is the paradox. The best Brexit is no Brexit.
    Too late...
    I agree.

    The car crash unprepared Brexit is on the cards for March 2019, but it looks increasingly certain that we will be looking to rejoin (with our tail between our legs) fairly shortly afterwards.

    I expect we will be full members again before I retire in 15 years.
    Being "full members" would not be "again" as we never have been. This is why the status quo ante 2016 was unsustainable.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    619 said:

    No, she can't turn it round, but she can salvage her reputation and depart with grace, if Brexit can be negotiated without total chaos. How big an 'if' that is remains to be seen.

    Although many of her woes are self-inflicted, it's also the case that the media like to knock down those that they have built up. Before the election, she was getting an over-favourable press, and a correction was inevitable. What was surprising was the speed and ferocity of that correction.

    Jeremy Corbyn has arguably followed the reverse trajectory, but Labour shouldn't kid themselves that the fundamentals have changed.

    Maybe, but she needs to crack on really. Her not condemning Trump was a mis-step: that's a free hit on an unpopular president saying stupid things.
    The President of our largest destination for exports who we need a trade deal or at least favourable trading terms with as soon as Brexit is completed, not a good idea to attack him
    Exactly. Why the flip is virtue signaling to achieve nothing in particular more important than getting possibly the most important trade deal in our history?
    Exactly, we need favourable trafing terms with the US (even under Trump) more than the US needs favourable trading terms with us
    It's ironic that most of the things we need for Brexit to be a success can be best delivered by remaining in the EU.
    That is the paradox. The best Brexit is no Brexit.

    Still, think of all that cheap Australian iron ore that we could import if we were free of EU shackles.
    Actually, you're nearly right. It is almost a paradox: our politicians have, over the last 25 years, and totally without our consent, worked us into a position that was in itself unsustainable but where any change would be damaging in the short term, the long term or both. Any chess player would recognise this as zugzwang.

    The obvious thing to do, of course, is take the short term hit.
    We have these things called elections in this country. You may remember a particularly crushing verdict of the people in which the following matter was at stake. You are a democrat, aren't you?
    Yet you want another referendum to reverse Brexit ? Lol.
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    619 said:

    No, she can't turn it round, but she can salvage her reputation and depart with grace, if Brexit can be negotiated without total chaos. How big an 'if' that is remains to be seen.

    Although many of her woes are self-inflicted, it's also the case that the media like to knock down those that they have built up. Before the election, she was getting an over-favourable press, and a correction was inevitable. What was surprising was the speed and ferocity of that correction.

    Jeremy Corbyn has arguably followed the reverse trajectory, but Labour shouldn't kid themselves that the fundamentals have changed.

    Maybe, but she needs to crack on really. Her not condemning Trump was a mis-step: that's a free hit on an unpopular president saying stupid things.
    The President of our largest destination for exports who we need a trade deal or at least favourable trading terms with as soon as Brexit is completed, not a good idea to attack him
    Exactly. Why the flip is virtue signaling to achieve nothing in particular more important than getting possibly the most important trade deal in our history?
    Exactly, we need favourable trafing terms with the US (even under Trump) more than the US needs favourable trading terms with us
    It's ironic that most of the things we need for Brexit to be a success can be best delivered by remaining in the EU.
    For most Leavers reducing immigration is what will make a success of Brexit
    I suspect that much of the immigration Leavers find so offensive comes from outside the EU.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,851

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    619 said:

    No, she can't turn it round, but she can salvage her reputation and depart with grace, if Brexit can be negotiated without total chaos. How big an 'if' that is remains to be seen.

    Although many of her woes are self-inflicted, it's also the case that the media like to knock down those that they have built up. Before the election, she was getting an over-favourable press, and a correction was inevitable. What was surprising was the speed and ferocity of that correction.

    Jeremy Corbyn has arguably followed the reverse trajectory, but Labour shouldn't kid themselves that the fundamentals have changed.

    Maybe, but she needs to crack on really. Her not condemning Trump was a mis-step: that's a free hit on an unpopular president saying stupid things.
    The President of our largest destination for exports who we need a trade deal or at least favourable trading terms with as soon as Brexit is completed, not a good idea to attack him
    Exactly. Why the flip is virtue signaling to achieve nothing in particular more important than getting possibly the most important trade deal in our history?
    Exactly, we need favourable trafing terms with the US (even under Trump) more than the US needs favourable trading terms with us
    It's ironic that most of the things we need for Brexit to be a success can be best delivered by remaining in the EU.
    That is the paradox. The best Brexit is no Brexit.
    Too late...
    I agree.

    The car crash unprepared Brexit is on the cards for March 2019, but it looks increasingly certain that we will be looking to rejoin (with our tail between our legs) fairly shortly afterwards.

    I expect we will be full members again before I retire in 15 years.
    Being "full members" would not be "again" as we never have been. This is why the status quo ante 2016 was unsustainable.
    In what sense were we not "full members" before the Euro?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,405
    edited August 2017

    It is, isn't it. If it's compliant today it'll still be compliant after we have Left.
    Equivalent isn't the same as compliant. It's compliant with EU regulations if the EU says so and they keep that discretion to themselves, as will Britain post-Brexit. That's why there's a £500 000 certification cost per product for motor vehicles, according to the article.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,851
    TGOHF said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    619 said:

    No, she can't turn it round, but she can salvage her reputation and depart with grace, if Brexit can be negotiated without total chaos. How big an 'if' that is remains to be seen.

    Although many of her woes are self-inflicted, it's also the case that the media like to knock down those that they have built up. Before the election, she was getting an over-favourable press, and a correction was inevitable. What was surprising was the speed and ferocity of that correction.

    Jeremy Corbyn has arguably followed the reverse trajectory, but Labour shouldn't kid themselves that the fundamentals have changed.

    Maybe, but she needs to crack on really. Her not condemning Trump was a mis-step: that's a free hit on an unpopular president saying stupid things.
    The President of our largest destination for exports who we need a trade deal or at least favourable trading terms with as soon as Brexit is completed, not a good idea to attack him
    Exactly. Why the flip is virtue signaling to achieve nothing in particular more important than getting possibly the most important trade deal in our history?
    Exactly, we need favourable trafing terms with the US (even under Trump) more than the US needs favourable trading terms with us
    It's ironic that most of the things we need for Brexit to be a success can be best delivered by remaining in the EU.
    That is the paradox. The best Brexit is no Brexit.

    Still, think of all that cheap Australian iron ore that we could import if we were free of EU shackles.
    Actually, you're nearly right. It is almost a paradox: our politicians have, over the last 25 years, and totally without our consent, worked us into a position that was in itself unsustainable but where any change would be damaging in the short term, the long term or both. Any chess player would recognise this as zugzwang.

    The obvious thing to do, of course, is take the short term hit.
    We have these things called elections in this country. You may remember a particularly crushing verdict of the people in which the following matter was at stake. You are a democrat, aren't you?
    Yet you want another referendum to reverse Brexit ? Lol.
    No, Brexit will be crushed by its own weight whether we have a second referendum to rubber-stamp the fact or not.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    619 said:

    No, she can't turn it round, but she can salvage her reputation and depart with grace, if Brexit can be negotiated without total chaos. How big an 'if' that is remains to be seen.

    Although many of her woes are self-inflicted, it's also the case that the media like to knock down those that they have built up. Before the election, she was getting an over-favourable press, and a correction was inevitable. What was surprising was the speed and ferocity of that correction.

    Jeremy Corbyn has arguably followed the reverse trajectory, but Labour shouldn't kid themselves that the fundamentals have changed.

    Maybe, but she needs to crack on really. Her not condemning Trump was a mis-step: that's a free hit on an unpopular president saying stupid things.
    The President of our largest destination for exports who we need a trade deal or at least favourable trading terms with as soon as Brexit is completed, not a good idea to attack him
    Exactly. Why the flip is virtue signaling to achieve nothing in particular more important than getting possibly the most important trade deal in our history?
    Exactly, we need favourable trafing terms with the US (even under Trump) more than the US needs favourable trading terms with us
    It's ironic that most of the things we need for Brexit to be a success can be best delivered by remaining in the EU.
    That is the paradox. The best Brexit is no Brexit.

    Still, think of all that cheap Australian iron ore that we could import if we were free of EU shackles.
    Actually, you're nearly right. It is almost a paradox: our politicians have, over the last 25 years, and totally without our consent, worked us into a position that was in itself unsustainable but where any change would be damaging in the short term, the long term or both. Any chess player would recognise this as zugzwang.

    The obvious thing to do, of course, is take the short term hit.
    We have these things called elections in this country. You may remember a particularly crushing verdict of the people in which the following matter was at stake. You are a democrat, aren't you?
    Yet you want another referendum to reverse Brexit ? Lol.
    No, Brexit will be crushed by its own weight whether we have a second referendum to rubber-stamp the fact or not.
    It really wont.

  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    Not sure this fits the Remain narrative, however some of us have been saying the same for a while now:

    http://commentcentral.co.uk/brexit-negotiations-the-davis-poker-face/

    The cards are face up. Limited scope for bluffing.
    Very true, and we hold 10 billion of them.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    TGOHF said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    619 said:

    No, she can't turn it round, but she can salvage her reputation and depart with grace, if Brexit can be negotiated without total chaos. How big an 'if' that is remains to be seen.

    Although many of her woes are self-inflicted, it's also the case that the media like to knock down those that they have built up. Before the election, she was getting an over-favourable press, and a correction was inevitable. What was surprising was the speed and ferocity of that correction.

    Jeremy Corbyn has arguably followed the reverse trajectory, but Labour shouldn't kid themselves that the fundamentals have changed.

    Maybe, but she needs to crack on really. Her not condemning Trump was a mis-step: that's a free hit on an unpopular president saying stupid things.
    The President of our largest destination for exports who we need a trade deal or at least favourable trading terms with as soon as Brexit is completed, not a good idea to attack him
    Exactly. Why the flip is virtue signaling to achieve nothing in particular more important than getting possibly the most important trade deal in our history?
    Exactly, we need favourable trafing terms with the US (even under Trump) more than the US needs favourable trading terms with us
    It's ironic that most of the things we need for Brexit to be a success can be best delivered by remaining in the EU.
    That is the paradox. The best Brexit is no Brexit.

    Still, think of all that cheap Australian iron ore that we could import if we were free of EU shackles.
    Actually, you're nearly right. It is almost a paradox: our politicians have, over the last 25 years, and totally without our consent, worked us into a position that was in itself unsustainable but where any change would be damaging in the short term, the long term or both. Any chess player would recognise this as zugzwang.

    The obvious thing to do, of course, is take the short term hit.
    We have these things called elections in this country. You may remember a particularly crushing verdict of the people in which the following matter was at stake. You are a democrat, aren't you?
    Yet you want another referendum to reverse Brexit ? Lol.
    I don't understand what he's talking about, anyway. There was no consent for Maastricht and no consent for Lisbon.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,851
    TGOHF said:

    No, Brexit will be crushed by its own weight whether we have a second referendum to rubber-stamp the fact or not.

    It really wont.
    The reason it really will is that it's been brought about by people who, like you, have made the mistake of believing their own propaganda. Reality doesn't care what lies you've told yourself about the way the world works and our place in it.
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107

    TGOHF said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    619 said:

    No, she can't turn it round, but she can salvage her reputation and depart with grace, if Brexit can be negotiated without total chaos. How big an 'if' that is remains to be seen.

    Although many of her woes are self-inflicted, it's also the case that the media like to knock down those that they have built up. Before the election, she was getting an over-favourable press, and a correction was inevitable. What was surprising was the speed and ferocity of that correction.

    Jeremy Corbyn has arguably followed the reverse trajectory, but Labour shouldn't kid themselves that the fundamentals have changed.

    Maybe, but she needs to crack on really. Her not condemning Trump was a mis-step: that's a free hit on an unpopular president saying stupid things.
    The President of our largest destination for exports who we need a trade deal or at least favourable trading terms with as soon as Brexit is completed, not a good idea to attack him
    Exactly. Why the flip is virtue signaling to achieve nothing in particular more important than getting possibly the most important trade deal in our history?
    Exactly, we need favourable trafing terms with the US (even under Trump) more than the US needs favourable trading terms with us
    It's ironic that most of the things we need for Brexit to be a success can be best delivered by remaining in the EU.
    That is the paradox. The best Brexit is no Brexit.

    Still, think of all that cheap Australian iron ore that we could import if we were free of EU shackles.
    Actually, you're nearly right. It is almost a paradox: our politicians have, over the last 25 years, and totally without our consent, worked us into a position that was in itself unsustainable but where any change would be damaging in the short term, the long term or both. Any chess player would recognise this as zugzwang.

    The obvious thing to do, of course, is take the short term hit.
    We have these things called elections in this country. You may remember a particularly crushing verdict of the people in which the following matter was at stake. You are a democrat, aren't you?
    Yet you want another referendum to reverse Brexit ? Lol.
    No, Brexit will be crushed by its own weight whether we have a second referendum to rubber-stamp the fact or not.
    This gets funnier all the time
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Meanwhile, the eclipse is underway here. The partial eclipse has begun over Oregon.

    We should have totality here in just over 2 hours. Highways north were gridlocked from dawn today with folks trying to get into the North georgia mountains, going to places with wonderful names like Hiawassee and Toccoa. If you saw Band of Brothers, Toccoa is where they did their basic training.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    FF43 said:

    It is, isn't it. If it's compliant today it'll still be compliant after we have Left.
    Equivalent isn't the same as compliant. It's compliant with EU regulations if the EU says so and they keep that discretion to themselves, as will Britain post-Brexit. That's why there's a £500 000 certification cost per product for motor vehicles, according to the article.
    Yet VW managed to fool them all?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    midwinter said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    619 said:

    No, she can't turn it round, but she can salvage her reputation and depart with grace, if Brexit can be negotiated without total chaos. How big an 'if' that is remains to be seen.

    Although many of her woes are self-inflicted, it's also the case that the media like to knock down those that they have built up. Before the election, she was getting an over-favourable press, and a correction was inevitable. What was surprising was the speed and ferocity of that correction.

    Jeremy Corbyn has arguably followed the reverse trajectory, but Labour shouldn't kid themselves that the fundamentals have changed.

    Maybe, but she needs to crack on really. Her not condemning Trump was a mis-step: that's a free hit on an unpopular president saying stupid things.
    The President of our largest destination for exports who we need a trade deal or at least favourable trading terms with as soon as Brexit is completed, not a good idea to attack him
    Exactly. Why the flip is virtue signaling to achieve nothing in particular more important than getting possibly the most important trade deal in our history?
    Exactly, we need favourable trafing terms with the US (even under Trump) more than the US needs favourable trading terms with us
    It's ironic that most of the things we need for Brexit to be a success can be best delivered by remaining in the EU.
    For most Leavers reducing immigration is what will make a success of Brexit
    I suspect that much of the immigration Leavers find so offensive comes from outside the EU.
    You can at least control that anyway, EU immigration you had no control over in the EU including those from outside the EU using the EU as a pathway to the UK
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,851

    TGOHF said:


    Yet you want another referendum to reverse Brexit ? Lol.

    I don't understand what he's talking about, anyway. There was no consent for Maastricht and no consent for Lisbon.
    So Amserdam and Nice were above board in your book? That covers QMV, a common foreign and security policy, criminal and police cooperation, among other things.

    Is if only when a European treaty coincides with a fag-end government that you cry foul?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited August 2017

    TGOHF said:

    No, Brexit will be crushed by its own weight whether we have a second referendum to rubber-stamp the fact or not.

    It really wont.
    The reason it really will is that it's been brought about by people who, like you, have made the mistake of believing their own propaganda. Reality doesn't care what lies you've told yourself about the way the world works and our place in it.
    If we'd believed the Remainers propaganda we'd have 5 million unemployed and in the middle of a massive recession.

    You make the mistake of underestimating the British people and their drive for innovation and ingenuity. They don't rely on the government to make things a success - they do it themselves.

    Whatever happens Britain will thrive and yes maybe there might be the odd blip like a Labour government but you seem to be stuck in a big government, SNP downer on the Uk pit of intransigence from which I doubt you can recover.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800




    Yet you want another referendum to reverse Brexit ? Lol.

    No, Brexit will be crushed by its own weight whether we have a second referendum to rubber-stamp the fact or not.

    William, do you have a job are you paid by some Remain group to spout your rubbish constantly?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    edited August 2017

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    619 said:

    No, she can't turn it round, but she can salvage her reputation and depart with grace, if Brexit can be negotiated without total chaos. How big an 'if' that is remains to be seen.

    Although many of her woes are self-inflicted, it's also the case that the media like to knock down those that they have built up. Before the election, she was getting an over-favourable press, and a correction was inevitable. What was surprising was the speed and ferocity of that correction.

    Jeremy Corbyn has arguably followed the reverse trajectory, but Labour shouldn't kid themselves that the fundamentals have changed.

    Maybe, but she needs to crack on really. Her not condemning Trump was a mis-step: that's a free hit on an unpopular president saying stupid things.
    The President of our largest destination for exports who we need a trade deal or at least favourable trading terms with as soon as Brexit is completed, not a good idea to attack him
    Exactly. Why the flip is virtue signaling to achieve nothing in particular more important than getting possibly the most important trade deal in our history?
    Exactly, we need favourable trafing terms with the US (even under Trump) more than the US needs favourable trading terms with us
    It's ironic that most of the things we need for Brexit to be a success can be best delivered by remaining in the EU.
    That is the paradox. The best Brexit is no Brexit.

    Still, think of all that cheap Australian iron ore that we could import if we were free of EU shackles.
    Actually, you're nearly right. It is almost a paradox: our politicians have, over the last 25 years, and totally without our consent, worked us into a position that was is as zugzwang.

    The obvious thing to do, of course, is take the short term hit.
    We have these things called elections in this country. You may remember a particularly crushing verdict of the people in which the following matter was at stake. You are a democrat, aren't you?

    In six weeks time, the British Prime Minister, myself or Mr Blair, ritain.”

    I shall say no. Mr Blair, Mr Blair will say yes.


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lLStTx7bIRk
    I can promise you virtually nobody voted for Blair in 1997 because they wanted a Federal Europe. Indeed the Referendum Party picked up a few million votes on an anti EU pro referendum ticket
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,851
    TGOHF said:

    Whatever happens Britain will thrive and yes maybe there might be the odd blip like a Labour government but you seem to be stuck in a big government, SNP downer on the Uk cycle of intransigence from which I doubt you can recover.

    Big government? Brexit is the biggest instance of state intervention in the economy and growth in the tentacles of government that we've seen for decades. As Adam Posen said, "Don't kid yourself that this will make Britain like Hong Kong was in the 70s. This will make Britain like Britain was in the 70s."
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    edited August 2017
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    619 said:

    Maybe, but she needs to crack on really. Her not condemning Trump was a mis-step: that's a free hit on an unpopular president saying stupid things.

    The President of our largest destination for exports who we need a trade deal or at least favourable trading terms with as soon as Brexit is completed, not a good idea to attack him
    Exactly. Why the flip is virtue signaling to achieve nothing in particular more important than getting possibly the most important trade deal in our history?
    Exactly, we need favourable trafing terms with the US (even under Trump) more than the US needs favourable trading terms with us
    It's ironic that most of the things we need for Brexit to be a success can be best delivered by remaining in the EU.
    That is the paradox. The best Brexit is no Brexit.

    Still, think of all that cheap Australian iron ore that we could import if we were free of EU shackles.
    Actually, you're nearly right. It is almost a paradox: our politicians have, over the last 25 years, and totally without our consent, worked us into a position that was is as zugzwang.

    The obvious thing to do, of course, is take the short term hit.
    We have these things called elections in this country. You may remember a particularly crushing verdict of the people in which the following matter was at stake. You are a democrat, aren't you?

    In six weeks time, the British Prime Minister, myself or Mr Blair, ritain.”

    I shall say no. Mr Blair, Mr Blair will say yes.


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lLStTx7bIRk
    I can promise you virtually nobody voted for Blair in 1997 because they wanted a Federal Europe. Indeed the Referendum Party picked up a few million votes on an anti EU pro referendum ticket
    We were already on the slippery slope to a federal Europe after Maastricht, of course.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    edited August 2017

    HYUFD said:

    She's a loser, to quote a message aimed at another Tory PM..

    You have sat too long here for any good you have been doing. Depart, I say, and let us have done with you. In the name of God, go.

    If she is a loser what does that make Major 1997, Hague 2001, Howard 2005 and Cameron 2010 all of whom won fewer seats than she did? Only Cameron 2015 and Major 1992 have won more seats as Tory leader than May did
    All of those made net seat gains at a general election bar Major.

    But for Ruth Davidson Mrs May would have seen the loss of nearly 10% of the parliamentary party.

    All about the direction of travel in terms of seats.

    Bums on seats is what wins you elections.
    But for winning some of the seats she would have won less seats and lost. Surely this applies to any election winner in a close contest?

    It's easier to win seats when you start off with fewer and when your party isn't starting to look tired after 7 years in government.
    In that situation a less than vain PM than May would not have called an election three years early. GE2017 was a TMay vanity project which went plop.
    Yet many Remainers were complaining May had 'no mandate for hard Brexit' from the referendum and demanding a general election to clarify. You cannot have it both ways
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,851
    HYUFD said:

    Indeed the Referendum Party picked up a few million votes on an anti EU pro referendum ticket

    811,849 to be precise.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682

    HYUFD said:

    Actually both BMG and Survation and ICM have given the Tories 42% in post election polls according to the chart above ie the same as the UK share they got at the general election and only 1% below their GB score. I am also not sure the local election results were as 'superb' as OGH suggests given the Tories got 37%, 6% below the 43% they actually got at the general election.

    May's big mistake was the dementia tax, the Tories will go into the next general election in 2019/20 having dumped that and under a new leader, probably Davis, Boris or JRM.

    JRM, really? Wasn't that just silly season stuff.
    He has an outside chance still
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    HYUFD said:

    Indeed the Referendum Party picked up a few million votes on an anti EU pro referendum ticket

    811,849 to be precise.
    One of which was mine.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    Whatever happens Britain will thrive and yes maybe there might be the odd blip like a Labour government but you seem to be stuck in a big government, SNP downer on the Uk cycle of intransigence from which I doubt you can recover.

    Big government? Brexit is the biggest instance of state intervention in the economy and growth in the tentacles of government that we've seen for decades.
    You've jumped the shark now ... perhaps a cup of (European) tea and a lie down may help.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    619 said:

    Maybe, but she needs to crack on really. Her not condemning Trump was a mis-step: that's a free hit on an unpopular president saying stupid things.

    The President of our largest destination for exports who we need a trade deal or at least favourable trading terms with as soon as Brexit is completed, not a good idea to attack him
    Exactly. Why the flip is virtue signaling to achieve nothing in particular more important than getting possibly the most important trade deal in our history?
    Exactly, we need favourable trafing terms with the US (even under Trump) more than the US needs favourable trading terms with us
    It's ironic that most of the things we need for Brexit to be a success can be best delivered by remaining in the EU.
    That is the paradox. The best Brexit is no Brexit.

    Still, think of all that cheap Australian iron ore that we could import if we were free of EU shackles.
    Actually, you're nearly right. It is almost a paradox: our politicians have, over the last 25 years, and totally without our consent, worked us into a position that was is as zugzwang.

    The obvious thing to do, of course, is take the short term hit.
    We have these things called elections in this country. You may remember a particularly crushing verdict of the people in which the following matter was at stake. You are a democrat, aren't you?

    In six weeks time, the British Prime Minister, myself or Mr Blair, ritain.”

    I shall say no. Mr Blair, Mr Blair will say yes.


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lLStTx7bIRk
    I can promise you virtually nobody voted for Blair in 1997 because they wanted a Federal Europe. Indeed the Referendum Party picked up a few million votes on an anti EU pro referendum ticket
    We were already on the slippery slope to a federal Europe after Maastricht, of course.
    Yet thanks to Major' s opt outs and the fact we, Sweden and Denmark were outside the Euro we were not likely to be a part of it
  • TGOHF said:

    No, Brexit will be crushed by its own weight whether we have a second referendum to rubber-stamp the fact or not.

    It really wont.
    The reason it really will is that it's been brought about by people who, like you, have made the mistake of believing their own propaganda. Reality doesn't care what lies you've told yourself about the way the world works and our place in it.
    The superiority of view that you constantly profess is very sad - I voted remain but accept we have to leave otherwise the democratic process is totally compromised.

    Indeed, it is more than likely the majority will want out as this process comes towards it end in March 2019 unless the EU accept the position and act reasonably
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,851

    HYUFD said:

    Indeed the Referendum Party picked up a few million votes on an anti EU pro referendum ticket

    811,849 to be precise.
    One of which was mine.
    James Goldsmith would have been appalled by what Euroscepticism has become. He was primarily against globalisation and saw the EU as a dangerous advocate of global free trade.

    This heady mix of ethno-nationalism and delusions about a global Britain were not at all what he stood for.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    HYUFD said:

    Indeed the Referendum Party picked up a few million votes on an anti EU pro referendum ticket

    811,849 to be precise.
    One of which was mine.
    James Goldsmith would have been appalled
    Now you can read the minds of the deceased - amazing. Not something us thick, peasant leavers could ever aspire to.

  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    619 said:

    No, she can't turn it round, but she can salvage her reputation and depart with grace, if Brexit can be negotiated without total chaos. How big an 'if' that is remains to be seen.

    Although many of her woes are self-inflicted, it's also the case that the media like to knock down those that they have built up. Before the election, she was getting an over-favourable press, and a correction was inevitable. What was surprising was the speed and ferocity of that correction.

    Jeremy Corbyn has arguably followed the reverse trajectory, but Labour shouldn't kid themselves that the fundamentals have changed.

    Maybe, but she needs to crack on really. Her not condemning Trump was a mis-step: that's a free hit on an unpopular president saying stupid things.
    The President of our largest destination for exports who we need a trade deal or at least favourable trading terms with as soon as Brexit is completed, not a good idea to attack him
    Exactly. Why the flip is virtue signaling to achieve nothing in particular more important than getting possibly the most important trade deal in our history?
    Exactly, we need favourable trafing terms with the US (even under Trump) more than the US needs favourable trading terms with us
    It's ironic that most of the things we need for Brexit to be a success can be best delivered by remaining in the EU.
    That is the paradox. The best Brexit is no Brexit.

    Still, think of all that cheap Australian iron ore that we could import if we were free of EU shackles.
    It's all been bought by the Chinese... All we would get would be the rust....
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    HYUFD said:

    Indeed the Referendum Party picked up a few million votes on an anti EU pro referendum ticket

    811,849 to be precise.
    One of which was mine.
    James Goldsmith would have been appalled by what Euroscepticism has become. He was primarily against globalisation and saw the EU as a dangerous advocate of global free trade.

    This heady mix of ethno-nationalism and delusions about a global Britain were not at all what he stood for.
    Well they haven't banned me from opening an account with his family bookmakers!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,851
    TGOHF said:

    HYUFD said:

    Indeed the Referendum Party picked up a few million votes on an anti EU pro referendum ticket

    811,849 to be precise.
    One of which was mine.
    James Goldsmith would have been appalled
    Now you can read the minds of the deceased - amazing. Not something us thick, peasant leavers could ever aspire to.
    I don't need to read his mind. He set out his views very clearly in books and debates, including sparring with Patrick Minford on this very topic.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    619 said:

    No, she can't turn it round, but she can salvage her reputation and depart with grace, if Brexit can be negotiated without total chaos. How big an 'if' that is remains to be seen.

    Although many of her woes are self-inflicted, it's also the case that the media like to knock down those that they have built up. Before the election, she was getting an over-favourable press, and a correction was inevitable. What was surprising was the speed and ferocity of that correction.

    Jeremy Corbyn has arguably followed the reverse trajectory, but Labour shouldn't kid themselves that the fundamentals have changed.

    Maybe, but she needs to crack on really. Her not condemning Trump was a mis-step: that's a free hit on an unpopular president saying stupid things.
    The President of our largest destination for exports who we need a trade deal or at least favourable trading terms with as soon as Brexit is completed, not a good idea to attack him
    Exactly. Why the flip is virtue signaling to achieve nothing in particular more important than getting possibly the most important trade deal in our history?
    Exactly, we need favourable trafing terms with the US (even under Trump) more than the US needs favourable trading terms with us
    It's ironic that most of the things we need for Brexit to be a success can be best delivered by remaining in the EU.
    That is the paradox. The best Brexit is no Brexit.

    Still, think of all that cheap Australian iron ore that we could import if we were free of EU shackles.
    You are ignoring the immigration issue, the referendum was immigration control and sovereignty v the economy and immigration control narrowly won
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,520
    Tim_B said:

    Meanwhile, the eclipse is underway here. The partial eclipse has begun over Oregon.

    We should have totality here in just over 2 hours. Highways north were gridlocked from dawn today with folks trying to get into the North georgia mountains, going to places with wonderful names like Hiawassee and Toccoa. If you saw Band of Brothers, Toccoa is where they did their basic training.

    Awesome pictures coming through, how close are you to the line of totality?
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Sandpit said:

    Tim_B said:

    Meanwhile, the eclipse is underway here. The partial eclipse has begun over Oregon.

    We should have totality here in just over 2 hours. Highways north were gridlocked from dawn today with folks trying to get into the North georgia mountains, going to places with wonderful names like Hiawassee and Toccoa. If you saw Band of Brothers, Toccoa is where they did their basic training.

    Awesome pictures coming through, how close are you to the line of totality?
    My daughter is in Blue Ridge - 100%. According to NASA I apparently will have a 98.67% eclipse. 10-15 miles north will get totality. How will I tell a 1.33% difference between me and totality?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,520
    edited August 2017
    Tim_B said:

    Sandpit said:

    Tim_B said:

    Meanwhile, the eclipse is underway here. The partial eclipse has begun over Oregon.

    We should have totality here in just over 2 hours. Highways north were gridlocked from dawn today with folks trying to get into the North georgia mountains, going to places with wonderful names like Hiawassee and Toccoa. If you saw Band of Brothers, Toccoa is where they did their basic training.

    Awesome pictures coming through, how close are you to the line of totality?
    My daughter is in Blue Ridge - 100%. According to NASA I apparently will have a 98.67% eclipse. 10-15 miles north will get totality. How will I tell a 1.33% difference between me and totality?
    Very lucky, you’re right in the path of it. 98.67% you’ll see a slit of light to one side of the moon as it is nearly but not quite covered by the moon. Something like this:
    image

    Edit: NASA live stream now up and running:
    https://youtube.com/watch?v=9eLja589E7I
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Sandpit said:

    Tim_B said:

    Meanwhile, the eclipse is underway here. The partial eclipse has begun over Oregon.

    We should have totality here in just over 2 hours. Highways north were gridlocked from dawn today with folks trying to get into the North georgia mountains, going to places with wonderful names like Hiawassee and Toccoa. If you saw Band of Brothers, Toccoa is where they did their basic training.

    Awesome pictures coming through, how close are you to the line of totality?
    Fun fact - the moon's shadow is moving across the US at an average speed of 1850 mph.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Sandpit said:

    Tim_B said:

    Sandpit said:

    Tim_B said:

    Meanwhile, the eclipse is underway here. The partial eclipse has begun over Oregon.

    We should have totality here in just over 2 hours. Highways north were gridlocked from dawn today with folks trying to get into the North georgia mountains, going to places with wonderful names like Hiawassee and Toccoa. If you saw Band of Brothers, Toccoa is where they did their basic training.

    Awesome pictures coming through, how close are you to the line of totality?
    My daughter is in Blue Ridge - 100%. According to NASA I apparently will have a 98.67% eclipse. 10-15 miles north will get totality. How will I tell a 1.33% difference between me and totality?
    Very lucky, you’re right in the path of it. 98.67% you’ll see a slit of light to one side of the moon as it is nearly but not quite covered by the moon. Something like this:
    image
    The sky is completely clear - not a cloud in the sky. Hotter than hell, but a beautiful day.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,520
    Tim_B said:

    Sandpit said:

    Tim_B said:

    Sandpit said:

    Tim_B said:

    Meanwhile, the eclipse is underway here. The partial eclipse has begun over Oregon.

    We should have totality here in just over 2 hours. Highways north were gridlocked from dawn today with folks trying to get into the North georgia mountains, going to places with wonderful names like Hiawassee and Toccoa. If you saw Band of Brothers, Toccoa is where they did their basic training.

    Awesome pictures coming through, how close are you to the line of totality?
    My daughter is in Blue Ridge - 100%. According to NASA I apparently will have a 98.67% eclipse. 10-15 miles north will get totality. How will I tell a 1.33% difference between me and totality?
    Very lucky, you’re right in the path of it. 98.67% you’ll see a slit of light to one side of the moon as it is nearly but not quite covered by the moon. Something like this:
    image
    The sky is completely clear - not a cloud in the sky. Hotter than hell, but a beautiful day.
    Awesome! Take lots of photos :D
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Sandpit said:

    Tim_B said:

    Sandpit said:

    Tim_B said:

    Sandpit said:

    Tim_B said:

    Meanwhile, the eclipse is underway here. The partial eclipse has begun over Oregon.

    We should have totality here in just over 2 hours. Highways north were gridlocked from dawn today with folks trying to get into the North georgia mountains, going to places with wonderful names like Hiawassee and Toccoa. If you saw Band of Brothers, Toccoa is where they did their basic training.

    Awesome pictures coming through, how close are you to the line of totality?
    My daughter is in Blue Ridge - 100%. According to NASA I apparently will have a 98.67% eclipse. 10-15 miles north will get totality. How will I tell a 1.33% difference between me and totality?
    Very lucky, you’re right in the path of it. 98.67% you’ll see a slit of light to one side of the moon as it is nearly but not quite covered by the moon. Something like this:
    image
    The sky is completely clear - not a cloud in the sky. Hotter than hell, but a beautiful day.
    Awesome! Take lots of photos :D
    There is a cruise ship offshore of Charleston SC full of eclipse watchers. The added attraction -honest - is that Bonnie Tyler is on board and will sing "Total eclipse of the heart" during totality.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Tim_B said:

    Sandpit said:

    Tim_B said:

    Sandpit said:

    Tim_B said:

    Sandpit said:

    Tim_B said:

    Meanwhile, the eclipse is underway here. The partial eclipse has begun over Oregon.

    We should have totality here in just over 2 hours. Highways north were gridlocked from dawn today with folks trying to get into the North georgia mountains, going to places with wonderful names like Hiawassee and Toccoa. If you saw Band of Brothers, Toccoa is where they did their basic training.

    Awesome pictures coming through, how close are you to the line of totality?
    My daughter is in Blue Ridge - 100%. According to NASA I apparently will have a 98.67% eclipse. 10-15 miles north will get totality. How will I tell a 1.33% difference between me and totality?
    Very lucky, you’re right in the path of it. 98.67% you’ll see a slit of light to one side of the moon as it is nearly but not quite covered by the moon. Something like this:
    image
    The sky is completely clear - not a cloud in the sky. Hotter than hell, but a beautiful day.
    Awesome! Take lots of photos :D
    There is a cruise ship offshore of Charleston SC full of eclipse watchers. The added attraction -honest - is that Bonnie Tyler is on board and will sing "Total eclipse of the heart" during totality.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yXKIECZpvqg
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,520
    edited August 2017
    Tim_B said:

    Sandpit said:

    Tim_B said:

    Sandpit said:

    Tim_B said:

    Sandpit said:

    Tim_B said:

    Meanwhile, the eclipse is underway here. The partial eclipse has begun over Oregon.

    We should have totality here in just over 2 hours. Highways north were gridlocked from dawn today with folks trying to get into the North georgia mountains, going to places with wonderful names like Hiawassee and Toccoa. If you saw Band of Brothers, Toccoa is where they did their basic training.

    Awesome pictures coming through, how close are you to the line of totality?
    My daughter is in Blue Ridge - 100%. According to NASA I apparently will have a 98.67% eclipse. 10-15 miles north will get totality. How will I tell a 1.33% difference between me and totality?
    Very lucky, you’re right in the path of it. 98.67% you’ll see a slit of light to one side of the moon as it is nearly but not quite covered by the moon. Something like this:
    image
    The sky is completely clear - not a cloud in the sky. Hotter than hell, but a beautiful day.
    Awesome! Take lots of photos :D
    There is a cruise ship offshore of Charleston SC full of eclipse watchers. The added attraction -honest - is that Bonnie Tyler is on board and will sing "Total eclipse of the heart" during totality.
    I heard about that one, well done to the entertainment booker!

    Obviously I’m on the other side of the world for this one (it’s dark already), but I remember vividly the total eclipse in the UK in August 1999. Unlikely we’ll ever see one again.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Sandpit said:

    Tim_B said:

    Sandpit said:

    Tim_B said:

    Sandpit said:

    Tim_B said:

    Sandpit said:

    Tim_B said:

    Meanwhile, the eclipse is underway here. The partial eclipse has begun over Oregon.

    We should have totality here in just over 2 hours. Highways north were gridlocked from dawn today with folks trying to get into the North georgia mountains, going to places with wonderful names like Hiawassee and Toccoa. If you saw Band of Brothers, Toccoa is where they did their basic training.

    Awesome pictures coming through, how close are you to the line of totality?
    My daughter is in Blue Ridge - 100%. According to NASA I apparently will have a 98.67% eclipse. 10-15 miles north will get totality. How will I tell a 1.33% difference between me and totality?
    Very lucky, you’re right in the path of it. 98.67% you’ll see a slit of light to one side of the moon as it is nearly but not quite covered by the moon. Something like this:
    image
    The sky is completely clear - not a cloud in the sky. Hotter than hell, but a beautiful day.
    Awesome! Take lots of photos :D
    There is a cruise ship offshore of Charleston SC full of eclipse watchers. The added attraction -honest - is that Bonnie Tyler is on board and will sing "Total eclipse of the heart" during totality.
    I heard about that one, well done to the entertainment booker!

    Obviously I’m on the other side of the world for this one (it’s dark already), but I remember vividly the total eclipse the in the UK in August 1999. Unlikely we’ll ever see one again.
    I was on the beach at Portreath in Cornwall for that, something I will never forget.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    619 said:

    No, she can't turn it round, but she can salvage her reputation and depart with grace, if Brexit can be negotiated without total chaos. How big an 'if' that is remains to be seen.

    Although many of her woes are self-inflicted, it's also the case that the media like to knock down those that they have built up. Before the election, she was getting an over-favourable press, and a correction was inevitable. What was surprising was the speed and ferocity of that correction.

    Jeremy Corbyn has arguably followed the reverse trajectory, but Labour shouldn't kid themselves that the fundamentals have changed.

    Maybe, but she needs to crack on really. Her not condemning Trump was a mis-step: that's a free hit on an unpopular president saying stupid things.
    The President of our largest destination for exports who we need a trade deal or at least favourable trading terms with as soon as Brexit is completed, not a good idea to attack him
    Exactly. Why the flip is virtue signaling to achieve nothing in particular more important than getting possibly the most important trade deal in our history?
    Exactly, we need favourable trafing terms with the US (even under Trump) more than the US needs favourable trading terms with us
    It's ironic that most of the things we need for Brexit to be a success can be best delivered by remaining in the EU.
    That is the paradox. The best Brexit is no Brexit.

    Still, think of all that cheap Australian iron ore that we could import if we were free of EU shackles.
    You are ignoring the immigration issue, the referendum was immigration control and sovereignty v the economy and immigration control narrowly won
    The referendum was about the NHS based on the big lie. The official campaign barely mentioned immigration which, of course, is central to a healthy economy.

    .

  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    It's started here - the moon is starting to block the sun. Everyone has cameras in Clemson SC just up the road so we can see it on TV.

    Even The Weather Channel has got tongue in cheek - "local on the 8s" has background music such as "Here comes the sun" by the Beatles or the Walker brothers "Sun aint gonna shine any more" instead of the usual muzak.

    Totality in 2 minutes in Madras OR
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Sandpit said:

    Tim_B said:

    Sandpit said:

    Tim_B said:

    Sandpit said:

    Tim_B said:

    Sandpit said:

    Tim_B said:

    Meanwhile, the eclipse is underway here. The partial eclipse has begun over Oregon.

    We should have totality here in just over 2 hours. Highways north were gridlocked from dawn today with folks trying to get into the North georgia mountains, going to places with wonderful names like Hiawassee and Toccoa. If you saw Band of Brothers, Toccoa is where they did their basic training.

    Awesome pictures coming through, how close are you to the line of totality?
    My daughter is in Blue Ridge - 100%. According to NASA I apparently will have a 98.67% eclipse. 10-15 miles north will get totality. How will I tell a 1.33% difference between me and totality?
    Very lucky, you’re right in the path of it. 98.67% you’ll see a slit of light to one side of the moon as it is nearly but not quite covered by the moon. Something like this:
    image
    The sky is completely clear - not a cloud in the sky. Hotter than hell, but a beautiful day.
    Awesome! Take lots of photos :D
    There is a cruise ship offshore of Charleston SC full of eclipse watchers. The added attraction -honest - is that Bonnie Tyler is on board and will sing "Total eclipse of the heart" during totality.
    I heard about that one, well done to the entertainment booker!

    Obviously I’m on the other side of the world for this one (it’s dark already), but I remember vividly the total eclipse the in the UK in August 1999. Unlikely we’ll ever see one again.
    12 Aug 2026 - total in Spain, 96% in Cornwall.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    The referendum was about the NHS based on the big lie. The official campaign barely mentioned immigration which, of course, is central to a healthy economy.

    .



    If you really believe that then there is no wonder you lost.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Totality finished in Madras OR. We're about an hour and 10 minutes away from it.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,919
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Sandpit said:

    Tim_B said:

    Sandpit said:

    Tim_B said:

    Sandpit said:

    Tim_B said:

    Sandpit said:

    Tim_B said:

    Meanwhile, the eclipse is underway here. The partial eclipse has begun over Oregon.

    We should have totality here in just over 2 hours. Highways north were gridlocked from dawn today with folks trying to get into the North georgia mountains, going to places with wonderful names like Hiawassee and Toccoa. If you saw Band of Brothers, Toccoa is where they did their basic training.

    Awesome pictures coming through, how close are you to the line of totality?
    My daughter is in Blue Ridge - 100%. According to NASA I apparently will have a 98.67% eclipse. 10-15 miles north will get totality. How will I tell a 1.33% difference between me and totality?
    Very lucky, you’re right in the path of it. 98.67% you’ll see a slit of light to one side of the moon as it is nearly but not quite covered by the moon. Something like this:
    image
    The sky is completely clear - not a cloud in the sky. Hotter than hell, but a beautiful day.
    Awesome! Take lots of photos :D
    There is a cruise ship offshore of Charleston SC full of eclipse watchers. The added attraction -honest - is that Bonnie Tyler is on board and will sing "Total eclipse of the heart" during totality.
    I heard about that one, well done to the entertainment booker!

    Obviously I’m on the other side of the world for this one (it’s dark already), but I remember vividly the total eclipse the in the UK in August 1999. Unlikely we’ll ever see one again.
    12 Aug 2026 - total in Spain, 96% in Cornwall.
    I was listening to a space podcast a while back that gave a story: a man chases eclipses was late getting to a remote area. Knowing he would not get onto the ground in time, he had a word with the airline on his last flight, who delayed the flight by half-an-hour which meant they flew through the eclipse.

    It's one way of guaranteeing there's no cloud cover!
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Sandpit said:

    Tim_B said:

    Sandpit said:

    Tim_B said:

    Sandpit said:

    Tim_B said:

    Sandpit said:

    Tim_B said:

    Meanwhile, the eclipse is underway here. The partial eclipse has begun over Oregon.

    We should have totality here in just over 2 hours. Highways north were gridlocked from dawn today with folks trying to get into the North georgia mountains, going to places with wonderful names like Hiawassee and Toccoa. If you saw Band of Brothers, Toccoa is where they did their basic training.

    Awesome pictures coming through, how close are you to the line of totality?
    My daughter is in Blue Ridge - 100%. According to NASA I apparently will have a 98.67% eclipse. 10-15 miles north will get totality. How will I tell a 1.33% difference between me and totality?
    Very lucky, you’re right in the path of it. 98.67% you’ll see a slit of light to one side of the moon as it is nearly but not quite covered by the moon. Something like this:
    image
    The sky is completely clear - not a cloud in the sky. Hotter than hell, but a beautiful day.
    Awesome! Take lots of photos :D
    There is a cruise ship offshore of Charleston SC full of eclipse watchers. The added attraction -honest - is that Bonnie Tyler is on board and will sing "Total eclipse of the heart" during totality.
    I heard about that one, well done to the entertainment booker!

    Obviously I’m on the other side of the world for this one (it’s dark already), but I remember vividly the total eclipse the in the UK in August 1999. Unlikely we’ll ever see one again.
    12 Aug 2026 - total in Spain, 96% in Cornwall.
    I was listening to a space podcast a while back that gave a story: a man chases eclipses was late getting to a remote area. Knowing he would not get onto the ground in time, he had a word with the airline on his last flight, who delayed the flight by half-an-hour which meant they flew through the eclipse.

    It's one way of guaranteeing there's no cloud cover!
    I'm reminded of an Irish joke from my UK schooldays in the 1960s. The Irish were planning a manned landing on the sun, but because of concerns about the heat on the sun's surface they decided to land at night.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Sandpit said:

    Tim_B said:

    Sandpit said:

    Tim_B said:

    Sandpit said:

    Tim_B said:

    Sandpit said:

    Tim_B said:

    Meanwhile, the eclipse is underway here. The partial eclipse has begun over Oregon.

    We should have totality here in just over 2 hours. Highways north were gridlocked from dawn today with folks trying to get into the North georgia mountains, going to places with wonderful names like Hiawassee and Toccoa. If you saw Band of Brothers, Toccoa is where they did their basic training.

    Awesome pictures coming through, how close are you to the line of totality?
    My daughter is in Blue Ridge - 100%. According to NASA I apparently will have a 98.67% eclipse. 10-15 miles north will get totality. How will I tell a 1.33% difference between me and totality?
    Very lucky, you’re right in the path of it. 98.67% you’ll see a slit of light to one side of the moon as it is nearly but not quite covered by the moon. Something like this:
    image
    The sky is completely clear - not a cloud in the sky. Hotter than hell, but a beautiful day.
    Awesome! Take lots of photos :D
    There is a cruise ship offshore of Charleston SC full of eclipse watchers. The added attraction -honest - is that Bonnie Tyler is on board and will sing "Total eclipse of the heart" during totality.
    I heard about that one, well done to the entertainment booker!

    Obviously I’m on the other side of the world for this one (it’s dark already), but I remember vividly the total eclipse the in the UK in August 1999. Unlikely we’ll ever see one again.
    12 Aug 2026 - total in Spain, 96% in Cornwall.
    I was listening to a space podcast a while back that gave a story: a man chases eclipses was late getting to a remote area. Knowing he would not get onto the ground in time, he had a word with the airline on his last flight, who delayed the flight by half-an-hour which meant they flew through the eclipse.

    It's one way of guaranteeing there's no cloud cover!
    I was really disappointed about the weather in 1999. As someone said at the time, you could predict the eclipse with absolute accuracy 200 years out, but the weather not 24 hours out.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    And Spain gets another one on 2 Aug 2027!!
This discussion has been closed.