If the memory sticks contain secret documents or even disclose the whereabouts of those documents and files Mr Miranda is in trouble and it seems likely to me that the response to the letter will be a warrant. It is time for the grandchildren of Bletchely Park to do their stuff.
In respect of the demand for the return of the seized items, I imagine the horse has already not only bolted but is grazing peacably in Virginia.
Yeah, you'd think if they were going to be able to crack the encryption they'd have done it by now. But I suppose it's just possible they need a few more days to put a huge cluster to work brute-forcing the keys to reveal the 256-bit AES-encrypted picture of Glenn Greenwald's arse or whatever it is they put on the memory stick they gave to the bloke they knew would be going through airport security.
Leaving aside the security holes in the algorithm, the possibility of intercepting the encryption key, and weak passphrases (if applicable) has brute force ever been shown to work against it?
I've heard plenty of dark insinuations that the US and GB governments have the capability, but not much proof that they have, and how it works.
Dear me, you work for a once-great newspaper, you hire a top lawyer, no doubt at ludicrously exorbitant cost, and you still get a grocer's apostrophe (para 7).
The drafting solicitor must have been educated at Dulwich College.
Cheeky git - my old man went there...!
I trust you got the reference to Alan Sked's criticism of Nigel Farage:
Is Farage a sort of British Ron Paul? “No, I think Ron Paul is more educated,” replies Sked. “Farage never went to university. When he was candidate in the very beginning in the 1990s he used to stick things through letter boxes with stuff he kind of wrote himself. And I used to get these letters from party headquarters: ‘I am very glad your candidate in Salisbury believes in education but until he learns how to spell it I am not voting for him.’ Two or three letters insinuated that Farage’s command of English was not very good. I took him to my office and tried to explain to him English grammar and spelling. For about two hours I tried to tell him the difference between ‘it’s’, with an apostrophe, and ‘its’, without an apostrophe.”
No offence intended to either Dulwich College or your father! Every school has "it's disappointments".
P.G.Woodehouse , also of Dulwich College , never went to University . Sked really is a prize ass.
Calm down, dear.
At least it is a higher class of snobbery and infighting than we get in other parties.
"That is insane. Just mental. Astonishingly good business for Spurs. Ninety three million?! What's going on with football?"
Yes and no. Depends when the payments will be made. 93 million tomorrow is one thing. 93 million over 5 years is quite another. The present value will be significantly lower, depending on what rate you choose to discount the payments.
Plus Real will use and market Bale immediately. If the payments are being spread out, its not as cashflow negative for Real as might first appear.
And of course, Spurs will have to trust Real over a long period. Personally I'd want the cash upfront. Its a good deal then. Otherwise, its just OK.
If the memory sticks contain secret documents or even disclose the whereabouts of those documents and files Mr Miranda is in trouble and it seems likely to me that the response to the letter will be a warrant. It is time for the grandchildren of Bletchely Park to do their stuff.
In respect of the demand for the return of the seized items, I imagine the horse has already not only bolted but is grazing peacably in Virginia.
Yeah, you'd think if they were going to be able to crack the encryption they'd have done it by now. But I suppose it's just possible they need a few more days to put a huge cluster to work brute-forcing the keys to reveal the 256-bit AES-encrypted picture of Glenn Greenwald's arse or whatever it is they put on the memory stick they gave to the bloke they knew would be going through airport security.
Leaving aside the security holes in the algorithm, the possibility of intercepting the encryption key, and weak passphrases (if applicable) has brute force ever been shown to work against it?
I've heard plenty of dark insinuations that the US and GB governments have the capability, but not much proof that they have, and how it works.
Nine times out of ten, the "key" will be written down in accompanying papers or 'saved' on the electronic device.
I don't pretend to know the ins and outs of the Miranda story, but I'm unhappy with the fact that anti-terrorism laws get used in such a vague manner, seemingly as punishment for Snowden.. If this happened under New Labour, PB would rightly be in uproar. What happened to Clegg's bonfire, his great repeal bill? This government is just as bad as Labour, Christ knows why the two main parties evoke so much tribalism on here. You need to have a word with yourselves.
I don't know if we have enough of the facts yet. If this man was stopped and secret material recovered before it could be distributed to third parties this becomes a fairly excellent piece of intelligence led police work. If nothing is found it really doesn't look very clever.
I just don't understand why, if it was the former, they would have let him go at all.
I don't pretend to know the ins and outs of the Miranda story, but I'm unhappy with the fact that anti-terrorism laws get used in such a vague manner, seemingly as punishment for Snowden.. If this happened under New Labour, PB would rightly be in uproar. What happened to Clegg's bonfire, his great repeal bill? This government is just as bad as Labour, Christ knows why the two main parties evoke so much tribalism on here. You need to have a word with yourselves.
I don't know if we have enough of the facts yet. If this man was stopped and secret material recovered before it could be distributed to third parties this becomes a fairly excellent piece of intelligence led police work. If nothing is found it really doesn't look very clever.
I just don't understand why, if it was the former, they would have let him go at all.
It is the DVDs which damn him, David.
If Miranda had been travelling with Bambi and The Jungle Book, I too would have considered becoming a libertarian for the day.
I don't pretend to know the ins and outs of the Miranda story, but I'm unhappy with the fact that anti-terrorism laws get used in such a vague manner, seemingly as punishment for Snowden.. If this happened under New Labour, PB would rightly be in uproar. What happened to Clegg's bonfire, his great repeal bill? This government is just as bad as Labour, Christ knows why the two main parties evoke so much tribalism on here. You need to have a word with yourselves.
I don't know if we have enough of the facts yet. If this man was stopped and secret material recovered before it could be distributed to third parties this becomes a fairly excellent piece of intelligence led police work. If nothing is found it really doesn't look very clever.
I just don't understand why, if it was the former, they would have let him go at all.
Surely the key point is that nowhere in Labour's anti-terrorist law does it say this does not apply to:
a. The Guardian b. Guardian journalists c. Partners of Guardian journalists.
If Miranda [is that his surname or camp name?] acted as courier for materials he knew not the contents of, then he must be as thick as those 2 girls in Peru.
"Usually it is annoying when you have to board an aeroplane via a shuttle bus rather than an airbridge. The exception is when the plane is a 747. That’s because, with the single exception of Lincoln Cathedral, the Boeing 747-400 is the most beautiful thing ever conceived by the mind of man. Any chance to see one at close quarters is a delight.
But aside from the engineering, the most beautiful thing about a long-haul airliner is the economic wizardry which keeps it flying. On board are a variety of seats from the sybaritic to the spartan for which people have paid wildly varying amounts of money, even though each seat will reach the same destination in the same length of time. You may find this class division offensive. However, if you were to try to make aircraft egalitarian, the system would collapse. Without the people in the front paying handsomely to sit in splendour, many of the people in the back could not afford to travel at all. An airliner is in some ways slightly socialist — it redistributes wealth through voluntary means.
This redistribution works in both directions. You can operate business-class-only flights. Indeed, if you can fill them, these are highly profitable. But there is a problem here. Business travellers prefer airlines which offer frequent flights to their destination, since they value flexibility and wish to avoid needless hours or days spent away from home. Without economy class passengers, you cannot operate sufficiently frequent flights to suit business schedules. Hence almost all long-haul airliners are symbiotically configured for mixed classes."
If the memory sticks contain secret documents or even disclose the whereabouts of those documents and files Mr Miranda is in trouble and it seems likely to me that the response to the letter will be a warrant. It is time for the grandchildren of Bletchely Park to do their stuff.
In respect of the demand for the return of the seized items, I imagine the horse has already not only bolted but is grazing peacably in Virginia.
Yeah, you'd think if they were going to be able to crack the encryption they'd have done it by now. But I suppose it's just possible they need a few more days to put a huge cluster to work brute-forcing the keys to reveal the 256-bit AES-encrypted picture of Glenn Greenwald's arse or whatever it is they put on the memory stick they gave to the bloke they knew would be going through airport security.
Leaving aside the security holes in the algorithm, the possibility of intercepting the encryption key, and weak passphrases (if applicable) has brute force ever been shown to work against it?
I've heard plenty of dark insinuations that the US and GB governments have the capability, but not much proof that they have, and how it works.
Nine times out of ten, the "key" will be written down in accompanying papers or 'saved' on the electronic device.
A farcical incident that indicates that the Guardian should not be entrusted with sensitive data. There is a small chance that this incident played a part in recent events.
Not much margin of safety on the FDP figure, though.
Incidentally, when I wrote a guest article here in Nov 2010, about the Eurozone's impact on UK politics, quite a few people commented that Angela Merkel probably wouldn't be around post-2013. For example, Nick Palmer wrote:
I doubt if it will still be Angela Merkel much longer (current poll ratings here: http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm - she and her allies have a 37%-55% deficit)
Of course he was right on the polling as it seemed then, but what a difference a couple of years makes...
"That is insane. Just mental. Astonishingly good business for Spurs. Ninety three million?! What's going on with football?"
Yes and no. Depends when the payments will be made. 93 million tomorrow is one thing. 93 million over 5 years is quite another. The present value will be significantly lower, depending on what rate you choose to discount the payments.
Plus Real will use and market Bale immediately. If the payments are being spread out, its not as cashflow negative for Real as might first appear.
And of course, Spurs will have to trust Real over a long period. Personally I'd want the cash upfront. Its a good deal then. Otherwise, its just OK.
When Bale got his trademark recently, to much coverage and speculation it could net him millions, what no-one seemed to notice was that it was awarded by the UK IP office. Thus, it is only valid in the UK and unenforceable in, say, Spain. He could have used the Community TM Office and been covered for the whole of the EU. Slightly more expensive, but in his case well worth the bother. He has been very badly advised!
As to the deal. If Spurs get £93 million plus a world class left back, that is unbelievable business. Any players Spurs bring in will be financed by that, so net spend will essentially be zero. But as we are talking about Spurs here there is no doubt something will go horribly wrong!
I adore Benedict Cumberbatch, I despise Julian Assange,
So do I go to the special advance preview screening next month of the film with Cumberbatch as Assange or not?
From the trailer I've seen, Cumberbatch does an excellent job of making Assange look bad - win win!
It'll be a blooming miracle if Cumberbatch is in anything good. From the idiotic 'The Last Enemy' to Sherlock, they have been pants. He acted well in the latest Star Trek, but the film itself was poor, especially wrt Chris Pine.
Any players Spurs bring in will be financed by that, so net spend will essentially be zero.
Exciting times SO, but here's the thing.
The financing of the deal is quite important, because if Real (say) pay around 20 million in installments over the next 5-years, then Spurs may conceivably have to borrow to finance their most recent signings (if Spurs are paying upfront), and some future ones.
Of course, Spurs can use the cash that Real owe them as security, but this is starting to look a little like the 2008 banking crisis in miniature. It might only take one default to set the whole house of cards off.
And Real do, apparently, have a good deal of debt.
I adore Benedict Cumberbatch, I despise Julian Assange,
So do I go to the special advance preview screening next month of the film with Cumberbatch as Assange or not?
From the trailer I've seen, Cumberbatch does an excellent job of making Assange look bad - win win!
It'll be a blooming miracle if Cumberbatch is in anything good. From the idiotic 'The Last Enemy' to Sherlock, they have been pants. He acted well in the latest Star Trek, but the film itself was poor, especially wrt Chris Pine.
I don't pretend to know the ins and outs of the Miranda story, but I'm unhappy with the fact that anti-terrorism laws get used in such a vague manner, seemingly as punishment for Snowden.. If this happened under New Labour, PB would rightly be in uproar. What happened to Clegg's bonfire, his great repeal bill? This government is just as bad as Labour, Christ knows why the two main parties evoke so much tribalism on here. You need to have a word with yourselves.
I don't know if we have enough of the facts yet. If this man was stopped and secret material recovered before it could be distributed to third parties this becomes a fairly excellent piece of intelligence led police work. If nothing is found it really doesn't look very clever.
I just don't understand why, if it was the former, they would have let him go at all.
He wasn't threatening to release the information himself, and he wasn't (AFAIK) involved in stealing it from the NSA. Consequently his only offence has been possession. Not sure that is worth a court case (with disclosure and martyrdom risks) vs a quick retrival of the information and letting him go on his way.
"That is insane. Just mental. Astonishingly good business for Spurs. Ninety three million?! What's going on with football?"
Yes and no. Depends when the payments will be made. 93 million tomorrow is one thing. 93 million over 5 years is quite another. The present value will be significantly lower, depending on what rate you choose to discount the payments.
Plus Real will use and market Bale immediately. If the payments are being spread out, its not as cashflow negative for Real as might first appear.
And of course, Spurs will have to trust Real over a long period. Personally I'd want the cash upfront. Its a good deal then. Otherwise, its just OK.
When Bale got his trademark recently, to much coverage and speculation it could net him millions, what no-one seemed to notice was that it was awarded by the UK IP office. Thus, it is only valid in the UK and unenforceable in, say, Spain. He could have used the Community TM Office and been covered for the whole of the EU. Slightly more expensive, but in his case well worth the bother. He has been very badly advised!
As to the deal. If Spurs get £93 million plus a world class left back, that is unbelievable business. Any players Spurs bring in will be financed by that, so net spend will essentially be zero. But as we are talking about Spurs here there is no doubt something will go horribly wrong!
Bale is too big for club like Spurs . He deserves a larger canvas.
I adore Benedict Cumberbatch, I despise Julian Assange,
So do I go to the special advance preview screening next month of the film with Cumberbatch as Assange or not?
From the trailer I've seen, Cumberbatch does an excellent job of making Assange look bad - win win!
It'll be a blooming miracle if Cumberbatch is in anything good. From the idiotic 'The Last Enemy' to Sherlock, they have been pants. He acted well in the latest Star Trek, but the film itself was poor, especially wrt Chris Pine.
(Waits for a barrage of abuse...)
You posted that to wind me up.
Would I? ;-)
In all seriousness, The Last Enemy was awful. Although Anamaria Marinca was strangely cute in it.
I don't pretend to know the ins and outs of the Miranda story, but I'm unhappy with the fact that anti-terrorism laws get used in such a vague manner, seemingly as punishment for Snowden.. If this happened under New Labour, PB would rightly be in uproar. What happened to Clegg's bonfire, his great repeal bill? This government is just as bad as Labour, Christ knows why the two main parties evoke so much tribalism on here. You need to have a word with yourselves.
I don't know if we have enough of the facts yet. If this man was stopped and secret material recovered before it could be distributed to third parties this becomes a fairly excellent piece of intelligence led police work. If nothing is found it really doesn't look very clever.
I just don't understand why, if it was the former, they would have let him go at all.
He wasn't threatening to release the information himself, and he wasn't (AFAIK) involved in stealing it from the NSA. Consequently his only offence has been possession. Not sure that is worth a court case (with disclosure and martyrdom risks) vs a quick retrival of the information and letting him go on his way.
Given the Guardian's track record with Wikileaks, he wouldn't have needed to release it for himself. Put it on their servers and wait for idiotic editors to write a book.
The more I remember the details of that pathetic series of events, the more I'm starting to believe it was part of the reason behind the Miranda story and the Guardian's hard drives allegedly being destroyed.
If journalists want to keep informants and information secure, they first need to understand security. And the same goes for Assange, who seemed to put a strange reliance in 'security through obscurity' by leaving the encrypted file on the servers.
Any players Spurs bring in will be financed by that, so net spend will essentially be zero.
Exciting times SO, but here's the thing.
The financing of the deal is quite important, because if Real (say) pay around 20 million in installments over the next 5-years, then Spurs may conceivably have to borrow to finance their most recent signings (if Spurs are paying upfront), and some future ones.
Of course, Spurs can use the cash that Real owe them as security, but this is starting to look a little like the 2008 banking crisis in miniature. It might only take one default to set the whole house of cards off.
And Real do, apparently, have a good deal of debt.
There's nothing to stop Spurs structuring their payments in a similar way to Real, so their signings are, effectively, covered by cash. No need for debt.
Spurs have got Soldado, Paulinho, Capoue, Willian, and Coentrao (have I missed anyone?). For one Bale. That's astoundingly good business.
Bale is too big for club like Spurs . He deserves a larger canvas.
Maybe.
I've recently I've felt that Real have champagne tastes on a beer budget. TV money for the Spanish league has halved whereas for the prem it only ever goes one way and it will keep going like that, because the UK's pay TV market is among the most lucrative, and soccer is the absolute key to subscribers.
Indeed, what keeps Barca and Real in the game for me is the euro. Imagine them trying to entice Bale with pesetas. Imagine the Italians trying to hang on to their best players in Lire....
It's be more secure uploading it to PirateBay where it could lurk for years before anyone noticed it given the vast size :^ )
If I were the security services, I would create vast encrypted files, give them a mythological importance, and release them. It would keep the conspiracy theorists going for a while, only for them to find out they contain shopping list and kitten YouTube videos. ;-)
''There's nothing to stop Spurs structuring their payments in a similar way to Real, so their signings are, effectively, covered by cash. No need for debt.'''
True, if Spurs can do deals like that then I guess it is good business. My point is that the sums being bandied around are not quite what they seem when the time value of money is taken into account.
Plus, as I say, Spurs will be trusting Real. Levy has already raised one eyebrow at Real's capacity to fund this deal, and I don't blame him.
"Fifty years ago Detroit had the highest per capita income in the US. Today it has filed for bankruptcy, allegedly dragged down by a leviathan public sector. Half of its $18 billion public debt is accounted for by unfunded obligations in health and pensions. In the words of Kevin Williamson, in the National Review, “the parasite has outgrown its host”. "
Any players Spurs bring in will be financed by that, so net spend will essentially be zero.
Exciting times SO, but here's the thing.
The financing of the deal is quite important, because if Real (say) pay around 20 million in installments over the next 5-years, then Spurs may conceivably have to borrow to finance their most recent signings (if Spurs are paying upfront), and some future ones.
Of course, Spurs can use the cash that Real owe them as security, but this is starting to look a little like the 2008 banking crisis in miniature. It might only take one default to set the whole house of cards off.
And Real do, apparently, have a good deal of debt.
Spurs will sign players on the same terms Real sign Bale. I don't think Real's position is that bad. They do have debt, but it is long-term and manageable. The risky clubs are the ones with smaller support that are bank-rolled by the very wealthy. Doing business with them has to be very carefully considered. TV money in Spain may be declining overall, but clubs do individual deals so the reality is that Real and Barca (and Bilbao to an extent and a long way behind) are not that badly hit. It's the others that have the trouble. All that said, the money for Bale is obscene given what is happening in Spain right now. But that won't stop Spurs taking it.
In the words of Kevin Williamson, in the National Review, “the parasite has outgrown its host”.
That is a devastating analogy Plato, and its important, because what happens in Detroit may be taken as a template for public sector pension schemes elsewhere - and not just in the US.
It's be more secure uploading it to PirateBay where it could lurk for years before anyone noticed it given the vast size :^ )
If I were the security services, I would create vast encrypted files, give them a mythological importance, and release them. It would keep the conspiracy theorists going for a while, only for them to find out they contain shopping list and kitten YouTube videos. ;-)
"but he’s probably going to need people to put their necks on the line for him and right now I’m not sure who. "
No-one could touch him while Tom was there. He could be fine, but his defences are down.
We covered this. That also implies there would be those willing to put their necks on the line to try and topple him. A small point I know, but who exactly?
We know from brother David's example it certainly won't be the Blairites no matter what Hodges says. Wee Dougie was being talked about as replacing Watson so he's not going to be rocking the boat. Murphy is involved in Falkirk and the shadow cabinet all know it so nobody will be rallying behind him while that is still fresh.
Balls? Somewhat unlikely since Yvette has future ambitions.
Darling?? LOL The former chancellor is only person as closely associated with the economic crash than Brown since it was on his watch and he was in charge.
Watson is now a free agent of sorts and little Ed won't be that displeased with him being so for the foreseeable future. Free to attack should the need arise.
Nope. Labour are quite obviously stuck with little Ed and the Hodges better get used to it. If they didn't topple Brown when he was some 26 points behind in the polls then toppling little Ed when he's ahead in the polls is a somewhat fanciful idea to say the least.
Little Ed is an electoral liability which might be more pertinent were it not for the fact that Clegg is an even bigger electoral liability and Cammie only a bit less of an electoral liability.
In the words of Kevin Williamson, in the National Review, “the parasite has outgrown its host”.
That is a devastating analogy Plato, and its important, because what happens in Detroit may be taken as a template for public sector pension schemes elsewhere - and not just in the US.
Anyone wondering why the Tories haven't benefited from economic news needs to look at this
@BobbyIpsosMORI: Labour right to focus on cost of living - key personal concern by a mile - cd miss if only look at issues for country http://t.co/0pwfGb8Pou
In fairness to Bindmans, it's not always easy picking up every typo in a lengthy letter produced at high speed. The letter is clear enough.
I'm not so sure. The relief claimed includes a quashing order, but in respect of what? The declarations that the decisions to detain etc were unlawful seem sufficient relief. It looks as if they have simply taken a template letter retrospectively challenging the issue of a search warrant, which would include a claim for an order to bring up and quash the warrant, and have used it in an inappropriate context.
I adore Benedict Cumberbatch, I despise Julian Assange,
So do I go to the special advance preview screening next month of the film with Cumberbatch as Assange or not?
From the trailer I've seen, Cumberbatch does an excellent job of making Assange look bad - win win!
It'll be a blooming miracle if Cumberbatch is in anything good. From the idiotic 'The Last Enemy' to Sherlock, they have been pants. He acted well in the latest Star Trek, but the film itself was poor, especially wrt Chris Pine.
I adore Benedict Cumberbatch, I despise Julian Assange,
So do I go to the special advance preview screening next month of the film with Cumberbatch as Assange or not?
From the trailer I've seen, Cumberbatch does an excellent job of making Assange look bad - win win!
It'll be a blooming miracle if Cumberbatch is in anything good. From the idiotic 'The Last Enemy' to Sherlock, they have been pants. He acted well in the latest Star Trek, but the film itself was poor, especially wrt Chris Pine.
" If you lose control of the big government virus the patient will slowly and painfully die. One recent global study, focusing on the trade-off between the size of government and economic growth, found that if you increase the size of the State by ten percentage points of GDP (eg from 40 per cent to 50 per cent of GDP), GDP growth is reduced by 0.5 to 1.0 percentage points every year.
Detroit is a metaphor for our times. The size of the State will be critical to economic competitiveness in the 21st century. Public spending has to be paid for and every study in the past 15 years has found that taxes have had a negative impact on long-term growth. The question of the size of the State and of the tax burden — as well as the size of the deficit — must become a central part of British politics. At the moment the focus is all on deficit reduction. This means that everybody is debating the short-term impact of fiscal policy on demand (spending) in the economy.
Hardly anybody is talking about the long-term impact of fiscal policy on supply (output) but it was the negative long-term impact of an over-sized State that dragged down Detroit and could drag down the UK...Angela Merkel has noted that while Europe accounts for only 7 per cent of the global population and 25 per cent of total GDP it accounts for 50 per cent of all global welfare spending. Detroit isn’t just a wake-up call for other indebted parts of America, such as Chicago and California. Nearly every Western government and electorate must act soon or once again hit the snooze button. The danger is that it might snooze one time too many.
" If you lose control of the big government virus the patient will slowly and painfully die. One recent global study, focusing on the trade-off between the size of government and economic growth, found that if you increase the size of the State by ten percentage points of GDP (eg from 40 per cent to 50 per cent of GDP), GDP growth is reduced by 0.5 to 1.0 percentage points every year.
Detroit is a metaphor for our times. The size of the State will be critical to economic competitiveness in the 21st century. Public spending has to be paid for and every study in the past 15 years has found that taxes have had a negative impact on long-term growth. The question of the size of the State and of the tax burden — as well as the size of the deficit — must become a central part of British politics. At the moment the focus is all on deficit reduction. This means that everybody is debating the short-term impact of fiscal policy on demand (spending) in the economy.
Hardly anybody is talking about the long-term impact of fiscal policy on supply (output) but it was the negative long-term impact of an over-sized State that dragged down Detroit and could drag down the UK...Angela Merkel has noted that while Europe accounts for only 7 per cent of the global population and 25 per cent of total GDP it accounts for 50 per cent of all global welfare spending. Detroit isn’t just a wake-up call for other indebted parts of America, such as Chicago and California. Nearly every Western government and electorate must act soon or once again hit the snooze button. The danger is that it might snooze one time too many.
It was the arguments of the last government that government borrowing of 3% a year was somehow responsible or sustainable. It just wasn't and it just isn't. Borrowing must be below our growth rate or ideally non existent for a very long time to allow our debt ratios to return to something safe. I agree with the author of the article that no politicians of any party seem willing or able to come to terms with the implications of this.
Even the tories idealise a smaller state but continuously hesitate to face the spending implications. It requires a cultural shift and the polling gives very little sign of anything like that happening.
For the record, since it seems to be pick on lawyers' grammar day, I am claiming my alternative spelling of bailout was deliberate and a reference to the more momentous news of the day.
Richard N: Merkel is a fair cop - you were right, I was wrong. She's in good shape, though not quite home and dry.
Labour Insider: greetings, comrade, but it's an odd view. For the last 20 years or so, the absolutely iron rule for ALL parties is that the leader has a good conference, often in contrast to what's expected. I can't think of an exception, and very much doubt if this year will offer one - for any of the leaders.
Nope - just logged in nothing shown under 'all bets' for her with them but then again it only shows for the last 12 months and I placed the bet well before then I think.
Richard N: Merkel is a fair cop - you were right, I was wrong. She's in good shape, though not quite home and dry.
Labour Insider: greetings, comrade, but it's an odd view. For the last 20 years or so, the sabsolutely iron rule for ALL parties is that the leader has a good conference, often in contrast to what's expected. I can't think of an exception, and very much doubt if this year will offer one - for any of the leaders.
Good evening, Nick. Good to hear from you in the crisis.
So you are expecting Ed Miliband to give his annual speech of a lifetime?
Richard N: Merkel is a fair cop - you were right, I was wrong. She's in good shape, though not quite home and dry.
Labour Insider: greetings, comrade, but it's an odd view. For the last 20 years or so, the absolutely iron rule for ALL parties is that the leader has a good conference, often in contrast to what's expected. I can't think of an exception, and very much doubt if this year will offer one - for any of the leaders.
I think there is a good argument that "the quiet man is turning up the volume" was the final straw for IDS. Far too many in the party just thought, no, I don't think so.
If Ed produces another batch of technobabble with yet another new set of buzzwords that everyone has to run around trying to define for him afterwards and if the polls were to go against him he could be in trouble. Not likely, too many ifs but far from impossible.
Anyone wondering why the Tories haven't benefited from economic news needs to look at this
@BobbyIpsosMORI: Labour right to focus on cost of living - key personal concern by a mile - cd miss if only look at issues for country http://t.co/0pwfGb8Pou
Except of course they already have....Lab leads falling from around 10% to about 5/6 now. Question is whether the trend will continue post Conferences and 3Q GDP data etc into 2014 and through to the election. You already know that but it's my noble and civic albeit tiresome duty to keep reminding you about it.
Let's see what tomorrow's boworrowing figures might bring: July is an important month for tax collection.
Richard N: Merkel is a fair cop - you were right, I was wrong. She's in good shape, though not quite home and dry.
Labour Insider: greetings, comrade, but it's an odd view. For the last 20 years or so, the absolutely iron rule for ALL parties is that the leader has a good conference, often in contrast to what's expected. I can't think of an exception, and very much doubt if this year will offer one - for any of the leaders.
I think there is a good argument that "the quiet man is turning up the volume" was the final straw for IDS. Far too many in the party just thought, no, I don't think so.
If Ed produces another batch of technobabble with yet another new set of buzzwords that everyone has to run around trying to define for him afterwards and if the polls were to go against him he could be in trouble. Not likely, too many ifs but far from impossible.
Anyone wondering why the Tories haven't benefited from economic news needs to look at this
@BobbyIpsosMORI: Labour right to focus on cost of living - key personal concern by a mile - cd miss if only look at issues for country http://t.co/0pwfGb8Pou
Except of course they already have....Lab leads falling from around 10% to about 5/6 now. Question is whether the trend will continue post Conferences and 3Q GDP data etc into 2014 and through to the election. You already know that but it's my noble and civic albeit tiresome duty to keep reminding you about it.
Let's see what tomorrow's boworrowing figures might bring: July is an important month for tax collection.
Quite right about July tax receipts. July and January are the two months of the year when cumulative net borrowing tends to fall rather than rise.
But we should be cautious about reacting too quickly to tomorrow morning's figures as the PSND ex account will only receive around £0.6 bn of cash transfers from the BoE due to a newly introduced cap of £12.3 bn for the year applying to BoE transfers. Up to date, £3.9 bn has been transferred each of April, May and June. The cap does not affect other borrowing accounts (cash borrowing and net debt figures) but will affect the headline figure normally used by the media when reporting the "deficit".
The 2013/14 annual limit has been calculated, from the 2012/13 entrepreneurial income of the Bank as £12.3 billion. This means that only part of the anticipated July transfer will impact on net borrowing. Subsequent transfers in the year will have no impact on net borrowing. However, all cash transferred during 2013/14 will impact on central government net cash requirement and net debt.
Important to get this warning in early before we have BenM and tim jumping up and down tomorrow's threads like dormant fleas confronted by a fresh kitten.
Not seen a lot of Brazil as I have only been here for a few days, but what I have seen has been spectacular and very interesting.
What Rio most reminds me of in terms of feel is Barcelona and Madrid in the 1980s. There's that same mix of absolutely decrepit and unbelievably opulent, and everywhere you go the smell of drains. But the promise is tangible - things are happening, there is building all over the place, people are optimistic. You can feel the investment flooding in and the opportunities being created. Obviously there are huge problems - endemic poverty (though nothing like the scale of India), corruption (ditto + China), major issues with primary and secondary education, poor healthcare, but - again, unlike India - you don't get the feeling that anything is intractable. The problems can be solved, even if it is going to take time. All like Spain in the 1980s - though clearly on a much bigger scale, but with lots more potential. And unlike China, Brazil has an independent judiciary, free movement of capital, people and informatin and democracy. It's a latin country so deal-making takes time, is convoluted and complex, but having never really thought about the place before, I am excited by what is here. The big test will be post World Cup and Olympics. If Brazil can ride that inevitable slowdown, the country's future is unbelievably bright. If you have not been down here, make sure you do. There's gold in them there hills. And it's just a great place to be.
Perhaps basing your economic policy on falling real wages and house price inflation after everything else failed is too transparent.
When UKIP are down to 5% Dave has a chance as we all know.
Look, slow learner (blimey O'Reilly, why am I so patient with the fool), if the election were held tomorrow you might just conceivably have a point. But you do know the date, don't you. You don't? OK, it's May 2015. Right. Now this is the complicated part. If the economic recovery extends and expands, then as the last two months have already amply demonstrated, it is very likely that the political and electoral fortunes of the party (ies) in government will also improve.
Geddit. No you don't. Poor lamb.
Oh the UKIP bit. Maybe. Could be a little more, might be slightly less. And just because you read somewhere that supposedly Dave said so, doesn't actually make it so.
Page 32 of the Right On Handbook tells me I am not allowed to respond to that. However, I would rate it as rather magnificent in both look and movement. And the LadyBoyz are pretty special too. My cab driver told me to be careful if I was inclined to do a Granty as I would not know what I was paying for until it was too late. Apparently Ronaldo got caught out a couple of years back.
Printing money and counting it against the deficit, taxpayer subsidised mortgages, and this morning you were advocating taxpayer subsidised equity release for consumer spending.
What happened to the March of the Makers, it became the Mince of the Estate Agents.
tim
1. BoE cash surpluses are cash profits made on market operations and not printed money. In many cases they are the net profits arising after paybacks of interventions. The opposite of 'printing money' or quantitative easing. There is nothing new in the arrangement whereby the BoE share its profits with the Treasury. The arrangement dates back to the 1940s.
2. As I have pointed out on a number of occasions, the mortgage market interventions are designed to arrest the decline in both prices and sales activity in the housing market; to stabilise and return the markets to growth; and to remove barriers to first time buyers and movers from starting on the property ladder. The measures are clearly succeeding, but you should note that sales activity remains at less than 50% of its 2007 peak; house prices have only just begun to reverse nominal declines in value in most regions and are still way below peak values in real terms. Mortgage lending is now increasing again but again from around 45% of mid noughties peaks. There is no boom or bubble; just a patient responding to medication and emerging out of a critical state.
3. Estate Agents don't mince. They parade. This month they were beating the retreat, but on the whole they are moving forward to the beat of a slow march.
I understand pensions deficits are usually calculated using bond rates (i.e. the least risky option). If so, does that mean that a more risky strategy would cut them?
If the economic recovery extends and expands, then as the last two months have already amply demonstrated, it is very likely that the political and electoral fortunes of the party (ies) in government will also improve.
Geddit. No you don't. Poor lamb.
Oh the UKIP bit. Maybe. Could be a little more, might be slightly less. And just because you read somewhere that supposedly Dave said so, doesn't actually make it so.
You believe that it is amply demonstrated that the governing parties have narrowed the lead in the last two months?
Waiter! Give me a glass of what that gentleman is having, please.
Not I would argue if movement is solely dependent on their hind legs.
It is interesting that one of the two referenced creatures is currently in discussion with Southam Observer on the alternative use to which various limbs could be put when in Rio di Janeiro.
Detroit is a metaphor for our times. The size of the State will be critical to economic competitiveness in the 21st century. Public spending has to be paid for and every study in the past 15 years has found that taxes have had a negative impact on long-term growth. The question of the size of the State and of the tax burden — as well as the size of the deficit — must become a central part of British politics. At the moment the focus is all on deficit reduction. This means that everybody is debating the short-term impact of fiscal policy on demand (spending) in the economy.
Hardly anybody is talking about the long-term impact of fiscal policy on supply (output) but it was the negative long-term impact of an over-sized State that dragged down Detroit and could drag down the UK...Angela Merkel has noted that while Europe accounts for only 7 per cent of the global population and 25 per cent of total GDP it accounts for 50 per cent of all global welfare spending. Detroit isn’t just a wake-up call for other indebted parts of America, such as Chicago and California. Nearly every Western government and electorate must act soon or once again hit the snooze button. The danger is that it might snooze one time too many.
It was the arguments of the last government that government borrowing of 3% a year was somehow responsible or sustainable. It just wasn't and it just isn't. Borrowing must be below our growth rate or ideally non existent for a very long time to allow our debt ratios to return to something safe. I agree with the author of the article that no politicians of any party seem willing or able to come to terms with the implications of this.
Even the tories idealise a smaller state but continuously hesitate to face the spending implications. It requires a cultural shift and the polling gives very little sign of anything like that happening.
Oh, waking up at last Plato? None of the Lab/Lin Con parties will even broach sound monetary policy; i'e, really reducing the national debt and making the land safe for investment and growth. The only party with the guts and drive to make a start on this is UKIP. UKIP is the nations hope. Vote UKIP.
If the conversations I have had are anything to go by, Boris is by far the best known politician here. It must be the Olympic effect. Everyone thinks he is hilarious. And they are all surprised to know that he is an immigrant taking jobs from a British mayor.
This is looking grim for Ed. However, if he can hold on till his conference speech he might be okay. The media - the anti-Cameron right in particular - would love to do a 'Ed confronts his critics and comes out stronger than we ever would have thought' narrative change. If a few New Labour dinosaurs could be found to praise it to the rafters that would also work wonders.
It was the arguments of the last government that government borrowing of 3% a year was somehow responsible or sustainable. It just wasn't and it just isn't. Borrowing must be below our growth rate or ideally non existent for a very long time to allow our debt ratios to return to something safe. I agree with the author of the article that no politicians of any party seem willing or able to come to terms with the implications of this.
Even the tories idealise a smaller state but continuously hesitate to face the spending implications. It requires a cultural shift and the polling gives very little sign of anything like that happening.
Oh, waking up at last Plato? None of the Lab/Lin Con parties will even broach sound monetary policy; i'e, really reducing the national debt and making the land safe for investment and growth. The only party with the guts and drive to make a start on this is UKIP. UKIP is the nations hope. Vote UKIP.
The problem, Mike, is that as soon as any main party broaches the idea of sound monetary policy and reducing the deficit faster, we just get screams of CUTS from everyone and they drop in the polls.
UKIP are currently benefiting from NOTA votes. Not convinced they are going to be solid in May 2015.
1. AVB and Bale are excellent mates and on failing to make Champs League agree to make a big last bid in 2013/14 season with extra money from Sky et al avaiable...
2. They agree Bale to keep silent and play along with a massive fee from any prospective buyers and thus appear like Spurs will lose their best player in 20 years, rivals like Arsene breathe a sigh of relief and assume top 4 is still achievable.
3. They get in a raft of top players despite not being in CL and despite fears that Bale is leaving. Selling clubs don't know if Spurs have this chunk of cash or not for Bale so prices aren't 'Torres/Carrol' inflated. What are Spurs telling these new recruits in the face of a supposed Bale exit, 'selling' club once again.
4. Bale stays one more season and plays in a team with all these new names too. Spurs odds on top 3 finish crash and suddenly even possible title contenders.
If it comes off Spurs hit big-time and the virtuous cycle of CL playing keeps attracting new talent... monies recouped, Bale may or may not then leave.
OR
It all falls apart, Spurs finish outside top 4 due to a bad pastie and chips etc, Bale and AVB move off to Barcelona or Real Mad, Spurs back in mid-table mediocrity but not in debt...
Worth a try if you are Levy!!
Not tempted to bet on Bale staying mind you despite 6-1 now.... but it's a nice dream.
Johnson was born in New York City,[11] but his family returned to Britain soon afterwards, as his mother had yet to take her Oxford University final exams.
I understand pensions deficits are usually calculated using bond rates (i.e. the least risky option). If so, does that mean that a more risky strategy would cut them?
Oddly in many cases yes - in theory. If you shifted everything into shares and away from bonds most actuaries assume a greater rate of long term return, hence the notional deficit would drop. But and it's a big but, any set of responsible trustees would wish to strike a balance between the age profile of the members of the scheme and the risks. Broadly the younger the members the greater the reasonable risk that can be taken as though shares are better long term they are more volatile, and if you are old there's less time to recover from volatility.
That said the rules of the game have been thrown into turmoil since 2008 with financial crises, Q bloody E ( cooking the books IMO ), and the demands placed on schemes by the Byzantine intricacies of the 2003 pension act, which is a masterpiece of good intentions gone seriously wrong.
At his conference speech, Ed needs to make the delegates swoon. He should take inspiration from Ozzy's legendary inheritance-tax pledge, which utterly spooked Labour and led to the long slow death of Gordon Brown's career. Seizing the railways back into state ownership has been posited, but I'd go one better - a mass compulsory purchase of all houses sold under Right-to-Buy, which are then given back to the councils. It would send shock waves!
At his conference speech, Ed needs to make the delegates swoon. He should take inspiration from Ozzy's legendary inheritance-tax pledge, which utterly spooked Labour and led to the long slow death of Gordon Brown's career. Seizing the railways back into state ownership has been posited, but I'd go one better - a mass compulsory purchase of all houses sold under Right-to-Buy, which are then given back to the councils. It would send shock waves!
I assume you jest? Please tell me you are.
Any other form of state disappropriation planned? Privitisation shares maybe? ( tell Syd to take his cash abroad quick and flee!).
Let's take from people what they've owned legally for decades, and paid for out of their tax paid wages and really screw them over eh?
At his conference speech, Ed needs to make the delegates swoon. He should take inspiration from Ozzy's legendary inheritance-tax pledge, which utterly spooked Labour and led to the long slow death of Gordon Brown's career. Seizing the railways back into state ownership has been posited, but I'd go one better - a mass compulsory purchase of all houses sold under Right-to-Buy, which are then given back to the councils. It would send shock waves!
What spooked Labour and led to the long slow death of Gordon Brown's career was not "Ozzy's legendary inheritance-tax pledge". It was the Labour Party's private polling of Scottish VI. They were heading for a total spanking.
Not seen a lot of Brazil as I have only been here for a few days, but what I have seen has been spectacular and very interesting.
What Rio most reminds me of in terms of feel is Barcelona and Madrid in the 1980s. There's that same mix of absolutely decrepit and unbelievably opulent, and everywhere you go the smell of drains. But the promise is tangible - things are happening, there is building all over the place, people are optimistic. You can feel the investment flooding in and the opportunities being created. Obviously there are huge problems - endemic poverty (though nothing like the scale of India), corruption (ditto + China), major issues with primary and secondary education, poor healthcare, but - again, unlike India - you don't get the feeling that anything is intractable. The problems can be solved, even if it is going to take time. All like Spain in the 1980s - though clearly on a much bigger scale, but with lots more potential. And unlike China, Brazil has an independent judiciary, free movement of capital, people and informatin and democracy. It's a latin country so deal-making takes time, is convoluted and complex, but having never really thought about the place before, I am excited by what is here. The big test will be post World Cup and Olympics. If Brazil can ride that inevitable slowdown, the country's future is unbelievably bright. If you have not been down here, make sure you do. There's gold in them there hills. And it's just a great place to be.
It was the arguments of the last government that government borrowing of 3% a year was somehow responsible or sustainable. It just wasn't and it just isn't. Borrowing must be below our growth rate or ideally non existent for a very long time to allow our debt ratios to return to something safe. I agree with the author of the article that no politicians of any party seem willing or able to come to terms with the implications of this.
Even the tories idealise a smaller state but continuously hesitate to face the spending implications. It requires a cultural shift and the polling gives very little sign of anything like that happening.
Oh, waking up at last Plato? None of the Lab/Lin Con parties will even broach sound monetary policy; i'e, really reducing the national debt and making the land safe for investment and growth. The only party with the guts and drive to make a start on this is UKIP. UKIP is the nations hope. Vote UKIP.
The problem, Mike, is that as soon as any main party broaches the idea of sound monetary policy and reducing the deficit faster, we just get screams of CUTS from everyone and they drop in the polls.
UKIP are currently benefiting from NOTA votes. Not convinced they are going to be solid in May 2015.
Well at least you are not scoffing at my statements. I do not know where UKIP will stand in the voters favour in May 2015, but neither does anyone else 20 months out from the election. I can only hope that more people will flock to us as they realise that none of the present main parties can pull us out of the mess they have made of Britain in the last 68 years.
The bookmakers Ladbrokes today said Mr Miliband was now 4/1, down from 9/2, to be replaced as leader before the next election.
Shadow Home Secretary Yvette Cooper remained the favourite to succeed him on 5/2, with Chuka Umunna and Jim Murphy on 8/1, Ed Balls 12/1, Douglas Alexander 12/1 and Alastair Darling 14/1.
Faites vos jeux, mesdames et messieurs, faites vos jeux.
If Leadership satisfaction ratings existed in 1945 , I wonder what those would have been just before the elections for Attlee and Churchill !
We do know what were the satisfaction ratings in May 1979.
They did exist in 1945.
See Lebo and Norporth. Using Gallup polling results they comment:
"A special adjustment had to be made for the 1945 election. With Labour having been part of the wartime government, we discounted the partisan effect of Prime Minister Churchill’s satisfaction rating by a factor of 2. His satisfaction rating prior to the 1945 election (87 per cent) thus enters as 43.5 per cent into the analysis."
Comments
I adore Benedict Cumberbatch, I despise Julian Assange,
So do I go to the special advance preview screening next month of the film with Cumberbatch as Assange or not?
http://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1279619
Leaving aside the security holes in the algorithm, the possibility of intercepting the encryption key, and weak passphrases (if applicable) has brute force ever been shown to work against it?
I've heard plenty of dark insinuations that the US and GB governments have the capability, but not much proof that they have, and how it works.
At least it is a higher class of snobbery and infighting than we get in other parties.
Yes and no. Depends when the payments will be made. 93 million tomorrow is one thing. 93 million over 5 years is quite another. The present value will be significantly lower, depending on what rate you choose to discount the payments.
Plus Real will use and market Bale immediately. If the payments are being spread out, its not as cashflow negative for Real as might first appear.
And of course, Spurs will have to trust Real over a long period. Personally I'd want the cash upfront. Its a good deal then. Otherwise, its just OK.
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm
I just don't understand why, if it was the former, they would have let him go at all.
If Miranda had been travelling with Bambi and The Jungle Book, I too would have considered becoming a libertarian for the day.
a. The Guardian b. Guardian journalists c. Partners of Guardian journalists.
If Miranda [is that his surname or camp name?] acted as courier for materials he knew not the contents of, then he must be as thick as those 2 girls in Peru.
http://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2011/09/unredacted_us_d.html
A farcical incident that indicates that the Guardian should not be entrusted with sensitive data. There is a small chance that this incident played a part in recent events.
Incidentally, when I wrote a guest article here in Nov 2010, about the Eurozone's impact on UK politics, quite a few people commented that Angela Merkel probably wouldn't be around post-2013. For example, Nick Palmer wrote:
I doubt if it will still be Angela Merkel much longer (current poll ratings here: http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm - she and her allies have a 37%-55% deficit)
Of course he was right on the polling as it seemed then, but what a difference a couple of years makes...
As to the deal. If Spurs get £93 million plus a world class left back, that is unbelievable business. Any players Spurs bring in will be financed by that, so net spend will essentially be zero. But as we are talking about Spurs here there is no doubt something will go horribly wrong!
Hard to believe that it was just 12 short months ago that arguments about Assange were stinking up the silly season.
(Waits for a barrage of abuse...)
Exciting times SO, but here's the thing.
The financing of the deal is quite important, because if Real (say) pay around 20 million in installments over the next 5-years, then Spurs may conceivably have to borrow to finance their most recent signings (if Spurs are paying upfront), and some future ones.
Of course, Spurs can use the cash that Real owe them as security, but this is starting to look a little like the 2008 banking crisis in miniature. It might only take one default to set the whole house of cards off.
And Real do, apparently, have a good deal of debt.
Please would you insert the missing word into your pass-phrase.
Jeremy Paxman's beard and Ed Miliband is crap.
In all seriousness, The Last Enemy was awful. Although Anamaria Marinca was strangely cute in it.
In conference?
End of october you say? Careful.
*tears of laughter etc.*
The more I remember the details of that pathetic series of events, the more I'm starting to believe it was part of the reason behind the Miranda story and the Guardian's hard drives allegedly being destroyed.
If journalists want to keep informants and information secure, they first need to understand security. And the same goes for Assange, who seemed to put a strange reliance in 'security through obscurity' by leaving the encrypted file on the servers.
Another link with the sorry tale:
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/leak-at-wikileaks-a-dispatch-disaster-in-six-acts-a-783778.html
Spurs have got Soldado, Paulinho, Capoue, Willian, and Coentrao (have I missed anyone?). For one Bale. That's astoundingly good business.
Wonder if Southampton had a sell-on clause?
It's be more secure uploading it to PirateBay where it could lurk for years before anyone noticed it given the vast size :^ )
Maybe.
I've recently I've felt that Real have champagne tastes on a beer budget. TV money for the Spanish league has halved whereas for the prem it only ever goes one way and it will keep going like that, because the UK's pay TV market is among the most lucrative, and soccer is the absolute key to subscribers.
Indeed, what keeps Barca and Real in the game for me is the euro. Imagine them trying to entice Bale with pesetas. Imagine the Italians trying to hang on to their best players in Lire....
True, if Spurs can do deals like that then I guess it is good business. My point is that the sums being bandied around are not quite what they seem when the time value of money is taken into account.
Plus, as I say, Spurs will be trusting Real. Levy has already raised one eyebrow at Real's capacity to fund this deal, and I don't blame him.
"Fifty years ago Detroit had the highest per capita income in the US. Today it has filed for bankruptcy, allegedly dragged down by a leviathan public sector. Half of its $18 billion public debt is accounted for by unfunded obligations in health and pensions. In the words of Kevin Williamson, in the National Review, “the parasite has outgrown its host”. "
That is a devastating analogy Plato, and its important, because what happens in Detroit may be taken as a template for public sector pension schemes elsewhere - and not just in the US.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BSIDyi1IcAAV7LN.jpg:large
No-one could touch him while Tom was there. He could be fine, but his defences are down.
We covered this. That also implies there would be those willing to put their necks on the line to try and topple him. A small point I know, but who exactly?
We know from brother David's example it certainly won't be the Blairites no matter what Hodges says. Wee Dougie was being talked about as replacing Watson so he's not going to be rocking the boat. Murphy is involved in Falkirk and the shadow cabinet all know it so nobody will be rallying behind him while that is still fresh.
Balls? Somewhat unlikely since Yvette has future ambitions.
Darling?? LOL The former chancellor is only person as closely associated with the economic crash than Brown since it was on his watch and he was in charge.
Watson is now a free agent of sorts and little Ed won't be that displeased with him being so for the foreseeable future. Free to attack should the need arise.
Nope. Labour are quite obviously stuck with little Ed and the Hodges better get used to it.
If they didn't topple Brown when he was some 26 points behind in the polls then toppling little Ed when he's ahead in the polls is a somewhat fanciful idea to say the least.
Little Ed is an electoral liability which might be more pertinent were it not for the fact that Clegg is an even bigger electoral liability and Cammie only a bit less of an electoral liability.
'They're sh** and they know they are'.. etc. ;^ )
True but as we've seen with Liverpool recently, the domestic scene seems to be of secondary interest to these clubs.
What's the news on the hotwire?
Is Ed in or out?
" If you lose control of the big government virus the patient will slowly and painfully die. One recent global study, focusing on the trade-off between the size of government and economic growth, found that if you increase the size of the State by ten percentage points of GDP (eg from 40 per cent to 50 per cent of GDP), GDP growth is reduced by 0.5 to 1.0 percentage points every year.
Detroit is a metaphor for our times. The size of the State will be critical to economic competitiveness in the 21st century. Public spending has to be paid for and every study in the past 15 years has found that taxes have had a negative impact on long-term growth. The question of the size of the State and of the tax burden — as well as the size of the deficit — must become a central part of British politics. At the moment the focus is all on deficit reduction. This means that everybody is debating the short-term impact of fiscal policy on demand (spending) in the economy.
Hardly anybody is talking about the long-term impact of fiscal policy on supply (output) but it was the negative long-term impact of an over-sized State that dragged down Detroit and could drag down the UK...Angela Merkel has noted that while Europe accounts for only 7 per cent of the global population and 25 per cent of total GDP it accounts for 50 per cent of all global welfare spending. Detroit isn’t just a wake-up call for other indebted parts of America, such as Chicago and California. Nearly every Western government and electorate must act soon or once again hit the snooze button. The danger is that it might snooze one time too many.
A third baleout for Greece. More write off of debt inevitable. Pain for German taxpayers likely. Just super confident.
Have I mentioned I've got a shed on Yvette for next LoTO.
I think I might have done...
This would even make up for Bale leaving...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9654444/Households-face-1230-bill-to-plug-public-sector-pension-black-hole.html
Even the tories idealise a smaller state but continuously hesitate to face the spending implications. It requires a cultural shift and the polling gives very little sign of anything like that happening.
If only the Greeks had some good players to sell.
Are you on Yvette too?
Labour Insider: greetings, comrade, but it's an odd view. For the last 20 years or so, the absolutely iron rule for ALL parties is that the leader has a good conference, often in contrast to what's expected. I can't think of an exception, and very much doubt if this year will offer one - for any of the leaders.
Ohhhhhh, Yvette!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nubsO07x5is
Ladbrokes.
Nope - just logged in nothing shown under 'all bets' for her with them but then again it only shows for the last 12 months and I placed the bet well before then I think.
Hurry up Ed.
ComRes/ITV News "Labour would have a better chance in 2015 without Ed Miliband" Poll- YES 44 NO 16
New poll -- not on website yet
So you are expecting Ed Miliband to give his annual speech of a lifetime?
Again?
If Ed produces another batch of technobabble with yet another new set of buzzwords that everyone has to run around trying to define for him afterwards and if the polls were to go against him he could be in trouble. Not likely, too many ifs but far from impossible.
Let's see what tomorrow's boworrowing figures might bring: July is an important month for tax collection.
I cannot see even Ed Balls and the unions wanting a bloodletting, though there will be harsh words.
Why? Any change to the prediction that Labour will win the next election?
But we should be cautious about reacting too quickly to tomorrow morning's figures as the PSND ex account will only receive around £0.6 bn of cash transfers from the BoE due to a newly introduced cap of £12.3 bn for the year applying to BoE transfers. Up to date, £3.9 bn has been transferred each of April, May and June. The cap does not affect other borrowing accounts (cash borrowing and net debt figures) but will affect the headline figure normally used by the media when reporting the "deficit".
The 2013/14 annual limit has been calculated, from the 2012/13 entrepreneurial income of the Bank as £12.3 billion. This means that only part of the anticipated July transfer will impact on net borrowing. Subsequent transfers in the year will have no impact on net borrowing. However, all cash transferred during 2013/14 will impact on central government net cash requirement and net debt.
Important to get this warning in early before we have BenM and tim jumping up and down tomorrow's threads like dormant fleas confronted by a fresh kitten.
What Rio most reminds me of in terms of feel is Barcelona and Madrid in the 1980s. There's that same mix of absolutely decrepit and unbelievably opulent, and everywhere you go the smell of drains. But the promise is tangible - things are happening, there is building all over the place, people are optimistic. You can feel the investment flooding in and the opportunities being created. Obviously there are huge problems - endemic poverty (though nothing like the scale of India), corruption (ditto + China), major issues with primary and secondary education, poor healthcare, but - again, unlike India - you don't get the feeling that anything is intractable. The problems can be solved, even if it is going to take time. All like Spain in the 1980s - though clearly on a much bigger scale, but with lots more potential. And unlike China, Brazil has an independent judiciary, free movement of capital, people and informatin and democracy. It's a latin country so deal-making takes time, is convoluted and complex, but having never really thought about the place before, I am excited by what is here. The big test will be post World Cup and Olympics. If Brazil can ride that inevitable slowdown, the country's future is unbelievably bright. If you have not been down here, make sure you do. There's gold in them there hills. And it's just a great place to be.
Just a change to who might be leading Labour to this famous victory.
Chill on.
As some might say.
Geddit. No you don't. Poor lamb.
Oh the UKIP bit. Maybe. Could be a little more, might be slightly less. And just because you read somewhere that supposedly Dave said so, doesn't actually make it so.
Therefore, new best prices:
NOM 13/8 (YouWin)
Lab Maj 22/13 (Betfair)
Con Maj 10/3 (StanJames)
1. BoE cash surpluses are cash profits made on market operations and not printed money. In many cases they are the net profits arising after paybacks of interventions. The opposite of 'printing money' or quantitative easing. There is nothing new in the arrangement whereby the BoE share its profits with the Treasury. The arrangement dates back to the 1940s.
2. As I have pointed out on a number of occasions, the mortgage market interventions are designed to arrest the decline in both prices and sales activity in the housing market; to stabilise and return the markets to growth; and to remove barriers to first time buyers and movers from starting on the property ladder. The measures are clearly succeeding, but you should note that sales activity remains at less than 50% of its 2007 peak; house prices have only just begun to reverse nominal declines in value in most regions and are still way below peak values in real terms. Mortgage lending is now increasing again but again from around 45% of mid noughties peaks. There is no boom or bubble; just a patient responding to medication and emerging out of a critical state.
3. Estate Agents don't mince. They parade. This month they were beating the retreat, but on the whole they are moving forward to the beat of a slow march.
"An acquaintance is part of a loose hacking collective. You should see what she/he does to avoid scrutiny."
Either that or I was censored...
Waiter! Give me a glass of what that gentleman is having, please.
It is interesting that one of the two referenced creatures is currently in discussion with Southam Observer on the alternative use to which various limbs could be put when in Rio di Janeiro.
But is SO "scuttling"? I think we should be told.
UKIP are currently benefiting from NOTA votes. Not convinced they are going to be solid in May 2015.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boris_Johnson
1. AVB and Bale are excellent mates and on failing to make Champs League agree to make a big last bid in 2013/14 season with extra money from Sky et al avaiable...
2. They agree Bale to keep silent and play along with a massive fee from any prospective buyers and thus appear like Spurs will lose their best player in 20 years, rivals like Arsene breathe a sigh of relief and assume top 4 is still achievable.
3. They get in a raft of top players despite not being in CL and despite fears that Bale is leaving. Selling clubs don't know if Spurs have this chunk of cash or not for Bale so prices aren't 'Torres/Carrol' inflated. What are Spurs telling these new recruits in the face of a supposed Bale exit, 'selling' club once again.
4. Bale stays one more season and plays in a team with all these new names too. Spurs odds on top 3 finish crash and suddenly even possible title contenders.
If it comes off Spurs hit big-time and the virtuous cycle of CL playing keeps attracting new talent... monies recouped, Bale may or may not then leave.
OR
It all falls apart, Spurs finish outside top 4 due to a bad pastie and chips etc, Bale and AVB move off to Barcelona or Real Mad, Spurs back in mid-table mediocrity but not in debt...
Worth a try if you are Levy!!
Not tempted to bet on Bale staying mind you despite 6-1 now.... but it's a nice dream.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boris_Johnson
Johnson was born in New York City,[11] but his family returned to Britain soon afterwards, as his mother had yet to take her Oxford University final exams.
That said the rules of the game have been thrown into turmoil since 2008 with financial crises, Q bloody E ( cooking the books IMO ), and the demands placed on schemes by the Byzantine intricacies of the 2003 pension act, which is a masterpiece of good intentions gone seriously wrong.
It's not currently in HD, which puts it down there with those awful shopping channels, as everything is in HD. It makes it tough to watch frankly.
'Labour heavyweights David Blunkett and Alistair Darling urge leader Ed Miliband to set out clear policies soon'
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/ed-miliband-david-blunkett-alistair-2193496#ixzz2cXRuWWhI
Any other form of state disappropriation planned? Privitisation shares maybe? ( tell Syd to take his cash abroad quick and flee!).
Let's take from people what they've owned legally for decades, and paid for out of their tax paid wages and really screw them over eh?
Please tell me again you're having a giraffe?
The bookmakers Ladbrokes today said Mr Miliband was now 4/1, down from 9/2, to be replaced as leader before the next election.
Shadow Home Secretary Yvette Cooper remained the favourite to succeed him on 5/2, with Chuka Umunna and Jim Murphy on 8/1, Ed Balls 12/1, Douglas Alexander 12/1 and Alastair Darling 14/1.
Faites vos jeux, mesdames et messieurs, faites vos jeux.
We do know what were the satisfaction ratings in May 1979.
See Lebo and Norporth. Using Gallup polling results they comment:
"A special adjustment had to be made for the 1945 election. With Labour having been part of the wartime government, we discounted the partisan effect of Prime Minister Churchill’s satisfaction rating by a factor of 2. His satisfaction rating prior to the 1945 election (87 per cent) thus enters as 43.5 per cent into the analysis."