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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This just possibly could be the moment for Yvette: A Labour insider gives his view of EdM’s prospects and what might happen
If (and it’s still a big if) Ed M leaves before election then Yvette will almost certainly take over. She’s been conspicuous by her silence this summer. Shocking really. If however Ed M disappoints at general election then Andy Burnham will also go for it and have a pretty decent chance as will Chuka Umunna.
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The silence is deafening.
He is undoubtedly isolated to the extent that he does not seem to have many (any) natural supporters. But this party couldn't revolt against Gordon Brown. Ed is better than that.
As for "they won’t do it any closer to the election", the Aussies would surely deem next autumn to be a bit early, let alone this one?
How "inside"?
Voter? Supporter? Member? Researcher? Journalist? MP? Union bigwig?
Seems to like David Miliband whoever it is...
Even professional journalists and estate agents are playing the game:
House prices continued to soar during August, despite asking prices actually dropping lower, property website Rightmove has revealed.
Although the average asking price dropped 1.8% month-on-month in August to £249,199, increases since the start of the year have meant that houses are actually still worth on average £20,000 more than they were seven months ago.
So even a 1.8% month on month price fall is being announced as a "soaring rise".
If the cows catch foot and mouth and the bottles get corked, tim still has potential as an estate agent.
If so, Ed needs to be afraid, very afraid.
Its too soon for the Chuka's and the Stellas to make their play, their time is after the next election.
The problem for Cooper is always going to be the same 'what do I do with the husband?'....
How we define terrorism:
http://www.cps.gov.uk/publications/prosecution/ctd.html Quite a bit wider than I expected, and I can see why many offences or activities can be caught up in it. It would be interesting to see definitions before TACT 2000.
So they want to keep their secrets safe??
Still, it would be fun, wouldn't it?
BBC Breaking News @BBCBreaking 1m
Correction: David #Miranda is taking legal action to stop police examining material seized from him. Guardian "supportive" - @DannyShawBBC
Doh! (link didn't work!)
Weren't the same Aussie MPs who ditched Gillard were the same ones who dumped Rudd in her favour earlier. Whatever else may be said of Labour MPs, they're neither as ruthless or panicky as their Australian counterparts. Jittery perhaps but that's not the same thing.
Means that there's more to the labour discontent than just froth.
Guardian suing the UK Home Office over David Miranda detention http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2013/aug/20/david-miranda-detention-latest-developments#block-52134ffde4b04c508c46390b …
It would appear the guardian isn't even sure themselves... unsurprisingly.
If Labour MPs are unhappy with Ed's team then maybe they should try helping by doing something useful themselves.
If we were feeling nostalgic we could repost Labour's arguments that low bond yields were a sign of economic weakness. Now it's the other way around apparently! Even when a major driver of the higher yields is the market being far more optimistic about unemployment prospects than the Bank of England.
Personally, I think Miliband will be safe (given how rubbish Labour was when it tried to axe Brown and who the potential alternatives are, though Cooper would be better than Balls).
FPT: Interesting piece by Gary Anderson on Spa: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/23754151
Spa and Suzuka will be the toughest on the tyres, he says, so there may be the possibility of delamination during the race. Perhaps something to consider when betting.
Besides, with Labour 6-10% ahead in the polls, things aren't desperate. True, Iain Gray's Scotish Labour was ahead in the polls too before it all fell apart during the campaign but lightning doesn't strike twice and in any case, there wasn't a factor like UKIP to damage the SNP in Scotland as there is for the Tories across England and Wales. Best leave things as they are and see what develops.
In any case, would any alternative leader *want* to take over from Miliband? It's not like when IDS was dumped by the Tories. Could Balls, Cooper or whoever reasonably expect to increase Labour's lead? They might be prepared to knock the party into shape (as Howard did for the Conservatives) but would that really make much difference. Any Labour politician of Miliband's generation knows that they'd be putting their entire career on the line to go up against him now, with the bet being a double as they'd have to deliver at the election too. That's a mighty big risk.
If, on the other hand, we are looking at a IDS scenario, the Howard figure is Harriet Harman. Those thinking that EdM won't see out the parliament could do worse than back her.
But you've chosen to ignore all that to obssessively pursue your latest meme.
PB is a wonderful resource of people who know lots about many things. It's worth taking advantage of that sometimes.
I'd shed no tears if Ed were to go. He has never looked like a leader.
However the size of the lead has shrunk, and Ed's dire ratings mean they run the risk of that lead slipping away once people really start focusing on the next election and the idea of labour in government, and are really faced with the possibility of Ed as PM.
He probably doesen't want them ogling his porn:)
A lot of hedging going on in the Simon Kirkby article (any relation to the Soprano Emma Kirkby?).
The conclusion:
The question is can [GDP growth] continue through this year and next? As long as wage growth continues to lag behind inflation, as long as there’s very weak export demand from the Euro Area and as long as businesses are too uncertain about the future to invest it’s going to remain quite challenging.
Valid questions for sure, but the early indications are that all will be satisfied on the upside.
Business Investment increased for the first time in months in the last BoE figures, with the main UK banks predicting strong growth in the second half of the year.
The EU and Eurozone tentatively emerged out of recession for the first time since 2011 in Q2 2013, even if second half forecasts remain flat. Trade activity is however growing faster than their economies. So the UK can expect an end to falling EU exports and, at best, a small recovery.
Real incomes growth has also stated to turn up, maybe overstated by the bonus/45% tax effect, but likely to continue at a reduced rate due to both falling inflation and output growth feeding through to increased hours worked.
No miracles predicted but just incremental improvement in all key drivers will be enough.
Even if that isn't true, enough Labour doubters will believe it to make a coup this year unlikely.
If I was convinced by "Labour insider" I'd put some pocket money on that.
But frankly, the evident David Miliband fandom in this piece makes me suspicious...
If you're so confident in Ed it's odd that you're bothering to post the nonsense about leader ratings for the umpteenth time. Believe in yourself.
Yvette in No.10 and EdBalls in No.11.
I'd laugh.
A. PM material? or
B. A pixie / not been punched enough?
QED.
Rather disturbing.
Am I right in thinking you can only do a debt for debt swap remortgage under Osborne's scheme so anyone "increasing their borrowing" can't use it? So it therefore, follows that Tim's post is nonsense.
Nothing new there. She's been conspicuous by her silence ever since joining the Shadow Cabinet as one of its least effective members. Her star (such as it ever was) is on the wane.
Politics can be quite subtle.
Clearly the underlying problem is disappointing electoral/polling performance and, unlike 2012, weak media presence this year.
For those that think Rudd and Beattie in Oz are making a difference in queensland where they come from let alone Oz wide, take a look at the latest polling.
Bringing Beattie in was supposed to be a gamechanger. The opposition is now 1.20 to win the seat of Forde where he is standing. First week after Rudd got back in he was an odds on favourite but novelty wears off and memories return.
People vote on trust, and people simply do not trust Rudd or Beattie. They may not like Abbott much but they trust him, albeit he is old fashioned and boring.
Many people vote for a candidate, many also vote against a party.
Miliband is beige and boring, therefore has some Abbott tendencies but is not as clever and does not care about people the same way* but that gives him 35% plus of the vote, which is what he needs. Posh boy tag for Miliband whereas Abbott as an ex boxing blue and Rhodes scholar.
* 15 years of spending his holidays helping aboriginals, firefighting bushfires and surf life saving on the beaches locally makes Abbott grudgingly "not bad", and not bad is good enough.
Conclusion. labour in UK need someone who is not bad, and Miliband not quite fits the tag.
Sounds like the famous scene in the Godfather when Don Corleone warns Michael where the traitor Tessio will strike.iI'm in two minds. Ed should never have been chosen but now he's there I think he could succeed. He needs to work very hard with his advertisers on his message and then with a lot of imput come up with an unassailable USP which goes further than just not being a Tory. It's definitely doable
I'm a bit puzzled as to why there's so much discontent with a leader of a party that's consistently leading in the polls, but there it is....
I'm far from convinced he'd succeed at leading the country. His track record (for instance at DECC and as leader of the party) does not bode well.
I doubt very much Ed is going anywhere, before or after conference this year. – However, the way Labour has been leaking like a sieve over the summer, I’m sure we’ll get to hear about of any future manoeuvrings soon enough.
MILIBAND, David 140
MILIBAND, Ed 122
And the fact that politics is personal, and some people see a better future for themselves if Ed were to be replaced.
Alan Rusbridger just said on BBC #wato that Guardian people destroyed the computers, not GCHQ. Huh?
This always gets me out of trouble when needed.
You can't run on a 35% wins strategy if almost half of your bedrock vote is dissatisfied with you.
It's when we get posts like Patrick's that I wish the Like button was still with us.
Not a phrase that I would use, but I doubt it was meant literally.
Apparently, Coventry North Eeast got an AWS to replace Bob Ainsworth
The two big questions for me are:
1. What difference would Yvette Cooper make to labour's economic policy? With Ed Balls at No 11, and with Labour pursuing a sensible course of continuing to reduce the deficit, I can't see why changing leaders to another sensible middle-ground type (Cooper) would make the unions-relationship any more comfy.
2. The question Labour should be asking itself, do the Tories want Ed Miliband to stay? I'd say the answer to that is an emphatic yes. The Tories think Cameron can destroy Miliband in a GE campaign, they are not scared or fussed by him, and would quite like him to lead Labour into a GE. I guess this is a problem which is greatly exercising Labour.
But as I said yesterday, the fact there is now media talk of Ed Miliband being weak/poor/possibly replaced seems a bit unfair. But then politics is a ruthless bloodsport.
theguardian.com/politics/blog/2013/aug/20/david-miranda-detention-latest-developments
ie there would have been a commercial impact on The Guardian.
That will disappoint those fans of instances of nepotism in the Labour party (even if they are a poor second in that to the Tories - the same people tend to ignore that fact). Still we have Will Straw! I mean he would *never* have had a chance if it wasnt for his dad
The local paper mentions as potential riders 3 local Cllrs, a lady working at Coventry University, a woman who stood in Burton in 2010 and a former SpAd of Harriet. I am now checking if Ainsworth has a daughter.
The full terms and conditions being applied to Banks participating in the 2014 Help of Buy guarantee scheme have not been released by the government.
My guess, and it is only a guess, is that the undisclosed guidelines constrain rather than prohibit an equity release element of a remortgage product. In other words, the Banks will have agreed in aggregrate to keep new equity release lending within prudential limits. This gives them the flexibility to allow it in for individual loans where circumstances justify.
Funding for Lending, together with the various mortgage stimulus schemes and the restructuring of bank balance sheets, have reduced the average mortgage lending rate being offered to new customers. Many current mortgage holders will benefit by remortgaging at the new lower rates.They may even be able to reduce repayments and repayment risk further, and make their mortgages more resilient to future interest rate rises, by extending the terms of their existing loans. Small amounts of equity release may also be justifiable based on individual circumstances.
In almost all cases of remortaging the economy benefits as money saved on paying interest rates becomes available for investment or consumption, thereby increasing demand and growth. For this reason there is nothing intrinsically 'wrong' with equity release loans provided its share of total lending doesn't lead it to having an inflationary effect on the economy.
The Labour party Conference is now going to be about the Labour party factions slugging it out as Ed Miliband tries to hang onto his Leadership, Ed was never in control of the party, so he always going to be pretty powerless to control events now. And Dan Hodges, take a bow. So the two clear stalking horses are Cooper and Burnham, Chukka, give me a break! Now lets see what Jim Murphy and Douglas Alexander think of it all.
Lord Hodges of Highgate would be difficult enough to bear.
Now imagine the burden on PBers of having to show due respect to Lord Thomas of Truro.
But, pointed out the presenter, some Labour councils employed workers on zero-hour contracts. The Labour council in Doncaster – part of which town is Mr Miliband’s constituency – employed about 300 of them.
Ah, replied Mr Umunna with his familiar serpentine smoothness. He hadn’t said he was opposed to all zero-hour contracts. He’d said he was opposed to their “ubiquity”. Some organisations who used zero-hour contracts were “responsible employers”.
Perhaps that could be another Labour slogan: “All Right When We Do It.” http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10254624/Sketch-Covering-up-for-the-invisible-man.html
He certainly doesn't lack the bottle.
I think it is likely that the left would object to an internal coup. Though they would struggle to muster the requisite nominations for a contest, even that process would extend the agony.
LOL.....Shame Ralph Lauren got there before him in this market.
Otherwise he could have had:-
'Polo, by Chuka'
I'll get me coat.
Which would Harman be?
The one with the waggly tail
How much is that doggie in the window?
I do hope that doggie is for sale
I read in the papers, there are Chukas
With flash smiles that shine in the dark
My love needs a doggie to protect her
And scare them away with one bark
The only realistic route is to try to create enough pressure on the leader that he'll feel obliged to stand down. Experience suggests that this ain't easy and can't be managed behind closed doors.
Perhaps they could post anonymous articles on political blogs?
In Polzeath, it comes free courtesy of the Duchy of Cornwall Homeopathy Fund.
Dave looks good on it.
"Deadline! Miranda lawyer says they'll file High Court claim Wednesday morning if Home Office/Met don't concede detention was illegal"
I trust the Home Office refer Mr Miranda to the reply given in Arkel vs Pressdram.....