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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New leader ratings in 3 state key to Trump’s 2016 victory have
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New leader ratings in 3 state key to Trump’s 2016 victory have him with big favourability deficits
Those of us who stayed up all night for the White House election last November will recall the huge focus on Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan – states won by Obama in 2012 which went to the Republican last year.
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I can't think of any historical parallel. Is there one?
I can't think of a sitting President being pushed out as his party had lost faith in him, rather than on grounds of ill health, corruption or death.
How about this for a long-shot? Trump fires Pence, installs Kushner or Ivanka as Vice- President. Trump resigns!
If the GOP want him gone, theyll do it. James Murdoch's criticism last week is telling. No guarantee fox news will keep up their support of him now
They might be declared ineligible via the 25th Amendment route.
I suspect not being President but being in control of the Presidency would suit Trump perfectly. Under such circumstances he could use any old trusted lackey!
Is there any example (modern or historic) of Presidents being forced out during their term akin to Thatcher or Blair.
Or did the Russians really fiddle it?
None have successfully been impeached, and only Nixon resigned.
Otherwise death is the only way a presidential term has been terminated early.
https://www.axios.com/why-top-white-house-officials-wont-quit-trump-2475045237.html
If he doesn’t want to resign there’s really no way to remove him. The 25th amendment was intended for use when the President was in a coma and unable to work, it’s a very long shot to try and use it to get rid of someone they just don’t like and the Supreme Court would probably intervene if it was attempted.
They belong in casinos, not on high streets.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-40993651
http://insideevs.com/excluding-tesla-global-automakers-demand-that-china-eases-impossible-electric-car-regulations/
Can anyone (legally!) explain how you actually get them to 'explode' (i.e. detonate) as opposed to just conflagrate rapidly? Surely the pressure relief valves would be difficult to defeat if you wanted to create a bleve?
Cylinder bombs were tried by the Glasgow airport bombers, and the 'bomb' failed, as did their attempt in London a few days earlier. Both failed to cause much damage, although they had potential. ISTR some US high school attackers (Columbine?) also failed to get them to explode.
So, how easy would it be to create an explosion in theory, as it seems more high-profile attempts have failed than succeeded?
Needless to say, I have no intent to do this ...
MSmithson is assuming that it would have remained a DJP/HRC fight.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15483952.Revealed__Westminster_and_the_big_lie_about_Scotland_s_oil/
Because it ignores this:
http://graphics.wsj.com/oil-barrel-breakdown/
Why does Norway make more money from North Sea oil than the UK?
Because production costs are a quarter of the UKs - and total extraction costs under half....
'Business' (sic) For Scotland displaying their business (sic) expertise.....
Classic pre-GERS distraction chaff......
If you go deeper into the counterfactual, were the Presidency itself to be decided on a nationwide vote, would the primaries switch to the same structure? And would party primaries with more than two candidates have had to have some kind of AV system, or French style head-to-head final round? That kind of change to the electoral structure might have been a bigger roadblock to Trump than the final election.
https://www.indy100.com/article/european-countriesracist-study-european-union-map-prejudice-survey-7893106
Does it include twitter 'experts' like Three Names Dave?
Wonder who long before Jared is referred to as a 'Globalist'?
https://twitter.com/singharj/status/899296320577581056
The Democrats will then try and push impeachment proceedings which will pass the House but get nowhere near the 2/3 majority needed in the Senate. Trump meanwhile will have to have moved back to the centre to work with Congress and Speaker Pelosi to get anything done, the Democrats meanwhile will see the mid-terms as vindication of a left/liberal agenda, pick Warren in 2020 (who Sanders will endorse after flirting with another run) and who Trump will then narrowly beat. Though I think Warren will do better in the Electoral College than Hillary without doing well enough to vote she will do worse in the popular vote
And yes, Javanka are out of control. We'll end up with a globalist-Democrat White House without a change in President if he doesn't turn this tide. McMaster has to go.
(I also STR that cylinders are designed to 'unzip' rather than explode into pieces, reducing shrapnel. I've no idea where I got that from, though.)
https://twitter.com/big_ben_clock
Carry on in the face of bombs, stiff upper lip, eh?
And you think he will run for relection and win if there are impeachment proceedings against him which passes the House?
https://twitter.com/big_ben_clock/status/899300002530553862
You also missed 'and we have charging points outside every home'
Impeachment proceedings will have failed by 2020 as they will have been blocked by the Senate, so until the Democrats take the Senate they will not be an issue again.
There are 33 Senators up for re-election, and only 8 of them are Republicans. Now, Nevada could flip to the Dems, and there are some suggestions that Arizona could go too.
But against that, the Democrats are defending West Virginia (R+20 in latest poll), North Dakota (R+16), and Montana (R+11).
The most likely outcome, I suspect is that the Dems pick up Nevada, and (maybe) Arizona, but drop West Virginia, North Dakota and Montana.
youtube.com/watch?v=jbreKn4PoAc
It's possible, but even for experts, quite difficult.
It's almost like you pick your enemies first, and then the rest of your views follow.
More seriously, the price and efficiency of batteries (which is the only thing that matters) is coming down all the time. I've seen presentations from various battery manufacturers, and they all seem confident that we'll continue to see the same steady progress in terms of energy density and cost.
I got a Tesla Roadster seven years ago when it first came out. The battery pack did 210 miles. They'll now swap it out for a cheaper, identically dimensioned one, that will do 340 miles.
We've now at the stage where every president of every stripe will be threatened with impeachment just for breathing. There have been Articles drafted and threats made against every President since at least GHWB. Sooner or later - and based on nothing more pivotal than simply Congress mathematics, it'll hit one president or another.
Javanka will eventually tame DJT and drain his mojo, bringing him the the centre and then to vapid pointless failure. Let's just hope he's finished arranging the Supremes before that happens.
Only one Vice President has ever resigned over clashing with the President (of two total, Agnew being the other) - John C. Calhoun, who resigned over Jackson's Nullification Policy, amongst other things. That happened as long ago as 1832 and is an even less happy precedent for Pence as it is thought to have cost Calhoun the presidential nomination for that year. It went instead to the notoriously incompetent Polk.
I also agree with Bannon and the Mooch gone and Ivanka, Kushner and John Kelly now running the show the long slow march of the Donald to the centre has begun and it will be accelerated when the Democrats take the House next year. Don't forget Trump has never been that ideological, he was a Democrat in the Clinton years for starters, he just cares about winning, that was why he ran as a populist nationalist in 2016 to beat the GOP establishment in the primaries and the centrist, tainted establishment Hillary in the general election (who let us not forget still beat him in the popular vote). If the Democrats, as is likely, pick a populist left liberal against him in 2020 he will shift to the vacant centre if it offers him the best path of victory then
I wasn't making a point about his views or conclusions in this case - in favour or against - at all. Sorry if it came across differently.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xIJORBRpOPM
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CLH_Pipeline_System
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_oil_pipeline_network
How much did your Roadster cost?
The new Tesla model 3 highlights the problem. It's expensive compared to the everyday cars most people run, and the low-cost base model is fairly knobbled.
As for having seen presentations from battery manufacturers that are confident ... well, yes, they would. You are, AIUI, involved in finance, and they want finance. I've been around and about the industry for a couple of decades, and every year must have seen several claims of improved battery tech. Yet the tech just dribbles improvements slowly.
I'm hopeful that one of the new techs that are regularly splurted over the media will fix all energy storage problems. But they may not, and then it's a case of choosing which one of all the myriad of contenders is the real deal.
http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/
You can make the argument that we're moving from petrol to natural gas*; but that's still the right move because natural gas is incredibly abundant relative to oil.
* And that ignores the fact that renewables are getting cheaper all the time too. And that they are a perfect fit for recharging batteries.
Tester is a very good fit for Montana, I don't think he'll lose. Heitkamp's a toss up but I think she's popular enough. I'd suggest McCaskill is more vulnerable than either of those two.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Propane_bomb
(I feel typing things like 'gas cylinder bomb' into Google is going to get me on certain watch lists ...)