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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The good news for TMay’s successor is that her party’s are due to exceed expectations next time
One of the great things about monitoring election betting is that it gives you a good indication of what expectations were at a particular time and these can be interesting to look back at.
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But, it's probably just faces in the clouds.
I'm not even sure we can predict that the average error is likely to be any different in future elections, let alone use past form to predict the direction of the error next time.
Constellations are perhaps the best example of the phenomenon. It is very hard to grasp that Orion looks the way it does purely by chance.
Hague won 1% more of the vote in 2001 but only 1 extra seat, Howard won 0.7% more of the vote in 2005 by contrast but 33 extra seats because of Labour voters switching to the LDs over Iraq
Apparently, the statue glows in the dark.
We all tend to fight the last war. If so, this kind of alternating pattern may indeed be meaningful and expected. We shouldn't benchmark our expectations by our most recent experience. But we do.
Labour's successful ground campaign in 2017 is likely to mean that punters in 2022 (or whenever) will guess that Labour will again be particularly effective in turning out its vote where it counts. The blogposts and the op-eds will write themselves. I'll probably be writing some of them, to be honest. Please quote this post back to me if and when I do.
Incidentally a doctor's spokesperson was on sort of claiming there's no significant difference between weekends and weekdays. There's fewer staff on duty at weekends so taken at face value, why have so many on duty on week days then?. A self-defeating argument if ever I've heard one.
There's less use of expensive analytical machines too at weekends.
Facts are, I suspect, that it is difficult to show significant effects with so many confounding factors. But we assume more staff are better, a not unreasonable claim, but a subjective one.
Oh, I forgot to get to the point. OGH obviously cherry-picking data for thread. Naughty.
I wonder if a similar bar chart for the Lib Dems, UKIP or SNP would indicate a more stable picture. It seems recently electoral polls have been mostly good for smaller parties, and a bit wonky for the big two.
It's a lazy assumption, but it may have some impact. Thing is it's most likely to help them in the university seats that fell this time and not in places like Newcastle under Lyme where they need more support.
A more plausible suggestion is that the Conservatives drop votes and Labour holds steady, winning by default.
We might see the Labour Party fracture into two. We might see the LibDems disappear to be replaced by "The Democrats". We may see the oil price revive, and with it the economic case for Scottish independence. We may see war in the East - either in the Baltics, or the Korean peninsular.
Or we might see the Conservative Party fail to pass a Brexit bill and the government could fall in just 18 months time.
At this point, it's all just probabilities.
Admittedly that is about the same probability as TSE ordering a Hawaiin pizza with extra pineapple, but it is a possibility.
Still seems bongkers, if true.
I'll get my light fawn-coloured summer jacket...
"Unmasking the leftist Antifa movement: Activists seek peace through violence"
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/08/18/us/unmasking-antifa-anti-fascists-hard-left/index.html
Thank you for the bar chart, which I found interesting. May I ask for the betting figures you used for this graph, and the sources you used to get them?
https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/898892844257214464
Isn't it Vince Cable when he was Sec of State in the coalition?
For the record, Tacitus is acceptable.
My interpretation of Mike's SPIN barchart is that political bettors are not very good at predicting election results accurately. Better or worse than the polls? I haven't done those sums, but there doesn't seem to be much in it, perhaps because punters bet on polls...
More likely is that there will never be consensus on whether Brexit has been a good or a bad thing.
Not nessicarily. Labour could take SCon seats by squeezing the SNP, and there is plenty of potential to have anti Tory tactical voting in England benefiting both Lab and LD. Kippers may well dislike the Tory deal and want to kick the Tories for the betrayal, while similtaneously Con Remain voters may not be willing to turn out to vote for Brexit, but instead vote LD. Surely as someone defeated by an LD this very week you can see that the threat of further defeat is real?
I am untroubled by Tory complacency, but I am surprised that you are so confident.
We all tend to fight the last war. If so, this kind of alternating pattern may indeed be meaningful and expected. We shouldn't benchmark our expectations by our most recent experience. But we do.
Labour's successful ground campaign in 2017 is likely to mean that punters in 2022 (or whenever) will guess that Labour will again be particularly effective in turning out its vote where it counts. The blogposts and the op-eds will write themselves. I'll probably be writing some of them, to be honest. Please quote this post back to me if and when I do.
Yes, plus if you failed to vote for Corbyn in 2017 why should you do so in 2019 or 2020 or 2022? He has already maxed out the student, public sector and city vote
Who knows what the government might do to push more people Labour's way by the next election. If Brexit is the mess some peopke are saying especially... The 2017 vote was neither a ceiling nor a floor, we don't know what it was.
If you voted Tory in 2017 you were not only very likely to have voted Leave but also to be ideologically committed to seeing Brexit through. Corbyn needs to win 2017 Tory voters to get an overall majority
Not necessarily. Corbyn could do that, but there are many other routes to esurgent, just months after a Tory election debacle.
My interpretation of Mike's SPIN barchart is that political bettors are not very good at predicting election results accurately. Better or worse than the polls? I haven't done those sums, but there doesn't seem to be much in it, perhaps because punters bet on polls...
Agreed re Corbyn's possible routes to power. You could also add: Labour may get some benefit from the current 14-17 year olds replacing a similar cohort of older voters. The influence of the right-wing press will continue to decline as circulation falls. Labour do not need to demotivate Tories from voting; the Conservative party will do that themselves if the next 5 years go badly.
The next general election will likely be in 2019 or 2020 not enough time to see much demographic change from 2017 but provided the Tories keep the dementia tax on the scrap heap they should be able to win back some 30 to 50 year olds
The problem the tories have is that by the next election people will think its time to give the other lot a go. They won't take notice of the "fake" news about corbyn, they wont even consirer why brexit is a success or failure. If they don't reinvent themselves I think they are toast, quite rightly. How does this block quote work?
Who knows what the government might do to push more people Labour's way by the next election. If Brexit is the mess some peopke are saying especially... The 2017 vote was neither a ceiling nor a floor, we don't know what it was.
If you voted Tory in 2017 you were not only very likely to have voted Leave but also to be ideologically committed to seeing Brexit through. Corbyn needs to win 2017 Tory voters to get an overall majority
Not necessarily. Corbyn could do that, but there are many other routes to esurgent, just months after a Tory election debacle.
My interpretation of Mike's SPIN barchart is that political bettors are not very good at predicting election results accurately. Better or worse than the polls? I haven't done those sums, but there doesn't seem to be much in it, perhaps because punters bet on polls...
Agreed re Corbyn's possible routes to power. You could also add: Labour may get some benefit from the current 14-17 year olds replacing a similar cohort of older voters. The influence of the right-wing press will continue to decline as circulation falls. Labour do not need to demotivate Tories from voting; the Conservative party will do that themselves if the next 5 years go badly.
The next general election will likely be in 2019 or 2020 not enough time to see much demographic change from 2017 but provided the Tories keep the dementia tax on the scrap heap they should be able to win back some 30 to 50 year olds
The problem the tories have is that by the next election people will think its time to give the other lot a go. They won't take notice of the "fake" news about corbyn, they wont even consirer why brexit is a success or failure. If they don't reinvent themselves I think they are toast, quite rightly. How does this block quote work?'
People said the same about Kinnock in 1992 when he also was fighting for one more heave and Labour had lost 3 previous general elections
Depending on who the new Tory leader is two-thirds or even more of the leaders of the three national parties could be over 70 by then - for the first time since 1955.
Not very well. Try to keep one ending for each username.
People said the same about Kinnock in 1992 when he also was fighting for one more heave and Labour had lost 3 previous general elections.
Although in fairness Kinnock was starting from much further back in both votes and seats and was facing a new, popular PM.
But Botham was of course a much better batsman and fielder.
So all of them, then....
If there is a new election, and to be honest I suspect a new leader would be happy enough to be in power for at least 9 months, I would expect months and months of softening up. Not a walking holiday and keeping it all a surprise.
Final wedding of the summer tomorrow as well which is a relief, I think that makes 7 in total.
Only Brexiteers could be so worked up about a bell ringing, on the wrong date...
West Indies have no batsmen, only six players who are not specialist bowlers or fielders.
Discuss.