politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » London falling – a look at next May’s elections in the capital

If a week is a long time in politics and there’s plenty of evidence for that at the moment, perhaps eight months will seem a veritable eternity.
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https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/892329988397117440
Labour's anti-semitism has held them back in Barnet, but I agree that the tide is strong enough for them to take it this time.
I agree that Westminster and Wandsworth could be shocks of the night.
London is operating on a entirely different political plane these days.
Love the way the different papers are reporting the long passport queues - in the FT its at 'Europe’s airport travellers face long security lines' (inside) with the EU only getting a look in half way down the article, while the Mail has front page "Shambles at EU Airports'
Diesel summit in Germany today as car industry bosses meet the Government to explain where it all went wrong
http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/diesel-affaere/autobranche-vor-dieselgipfel-unter-druck-15132875/opel-mit-niedrigem-15131867.html
The Conservatives would probably have just clung on in the borough, on June 8th's numbers.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-shipping-forecast
Oh well, staying on deck & watching the horizon can help, I'm told. Once crossing the Atlantic on the QE2 we had a Force 9 gale - the restaurant staff formed a little tunnel passing passengers from one to the other until you were plonked down in a seat - great fun! (for those of us who don't get seasick!)
I guess its all those underfunded pensions that pay for him
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/2017/08/01/university-chiefs-should-not-ashamed-salaries-says-yacht-owning/
A remarkable transformation on the site of the old DDR parliament
https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article167297292/Stiftung-bereut-Kreuz-auf-Berliner-Stadtschloss.html
And all the best. Enjoy Spain. Or are you driving on to Portugal?
We're doing a couple of days in the Basque country, then over the border and up to a place in the middle of nowhere in Gascony.
we'll ungratefully demand more and none of your lip
for those missing their Donald fix
http://www.scotsman.com/news/scottish-independence-would-be-terrible-says-donald-trump-1-4519872
What is this strange realm of urban decadence wherein dragons dwell and sly fellows scheme and dream?
Nevertheless, thanks to Mr. Stodge for his report on the mysterious doings of this 'London', as he calls it.
Therefore the Channel Tunnel was a thing of dread for her. Yet she now uses it occasionally despite her misgivings.
The reason? A massive storm mid-Channel on one trip, where lorries broke loose and smashed up peoples' cars. Hers was spared, but if it looks like there's going to be a storm, she considers using the Chunnel.
Have a relaxing holiday.
Obama looks more the chicken sort
both should learn to keep out of UK internal politics
More seriously, I’ve read somewhere that in mediaval and possibly even Elizabethan and Jacobean times child mortality in London was so high that migration for the shires was essential to maintain the population.
I’m sure some PB-er can correct, support or even provide a reference.
King Cole, larger settlements (and London was predominant in population terms even in the 14th century, and earlier) were more prone to both disease outbreaks and fire, so that would make sense.
Obviously the Black Death did not enhance mortality rates, but another driving factor was that it increased the value of labour which meant peasant workers were suddenly in demand. Often they'd move to a better paying lord's manor, but many, when there were too few to maintain their own manor or if their lord was dead and they needed work, migrated to urban centres for work.
I'd recommend Juliet Barker's book on the Peasants' revolt for its analysis of economic changes caused by the Black Death. It's a good example of a revolt occurring because things are getting better, not worse.
At the moment it looks very likely that this government will follow the more traditional path. If May is still staggering on at the time of these elections with anything like the current (lack of) control or purpose I suspect Stodge is seriously underestimating Tory losses. The Tories held onto to the seats in London because there were a sufficiently large number of people motivated to stop Corbyn. Without that factor there may well be carnage.
In the civilised parts of the UK, Londoners are regarded as the epitome of sloth and indulgence, unworthy of pity because they bring it on themselves. House prices are ludicrous, beer prices daft, and living conditions Dickensian. Yet the media believe London is the UK.
That's why the term ....' The metropolitan elite' is so toxic.
I've defended you. Many up here say you're not fit to live in a pig sty. I say you are.
But there's hope for you all. I believe that at heart, you're good people deluded by your surroundings.
And it's just as well for London's prosperity that the rest of the country doesn't vote the same way as London does.
As an Essex man, I’m quite proud of the fact that many of the leaders were Essex men. Indeed, in Basildon there is a ‘Wat Tyler Country Park’.
The rest of Britain is a country with many problems. They are the problems of a country in long term decline with no understanding of how or even wish to turn that around.
The attempt to sell the idea that London supports us all, because we aren't intelligent or modern enough to do it for ourselves is both arrogant and wrong. It's how the bubble thinks and behaves, and why it is mistrusted.
Vast sums leave London every year to prop up the provinces. It's a bit rich to complain of underinvestment.
It turns out the Conservatives have got a magic money tree. It's called London. Unfortunately, they're salting its roots.
Overall a very bad night for the Conservatives in London, they could be wiped out in some councils like Brent and Ealing if there is enough anger at the government, even though they took control of Ealing council in 2006.
"Take back control from the carrot-crunchers"
C'mon Alastair, this is your big chance.
;-)
A perfect example of how regional assemblies/parties would tear England into squabbling fiefdoms.
I hope someone explained to him why this wouldn't be a problem.
I remember telling IOS in 2012 that EdM had only won a Kinnock type victory when he was claiming that Labour were half way to another 1997.
As to the London elections next year it should be remembered that in many of the boroughs the Conservatives are already actually or almost wiped out:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_local_elections,_2014
The demographic changes in middle suburbia has already crippled them in places like Brent, Enfield, Ealing, Harrow, Redbridge and Merton.
Well it was yesterday. Tomorrow is anyone's guess. Comrade Corbyn, saviour of the masses, has always been anti EU
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kensington_and_Chelsea_London_Borough_Council_election,_2014
And I suspect the residents of the South Ken and Chelsea million quid properties will not be keen on Corbyn's gang setting their council tax for the next four years.
We saw this with the financial crisis. We were heading for a recession anyway due to the housing bubble, but because the overriding factor was a global financial crisis (which obviously included a large British element because of our financial sector) it wasn't a purely 'Labour' problem, in the voters' minds.
You're right about the rest. The C1/C2 home-owning voters that dependably backed the Conservatives in wards like Southbury, Turkey Street, Enfield Lock, Enfield Chase have mostly moved away.
My point in posting the tweet was the amount of bitterness shown on BOTH sides. The Economy can go to hell, when deeper beliefs prevail.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harrow_London_Borough_Council_election,_2014
While the north of the borough votes like Hertfordshire the south has imitated Brent and Ealing.
There are similar big divides in Hillingdon, Croydon and somewhat differently Merton.
Some very good articles on here, including this one getting back on the subject of political betting - well done @Stodge.
In other news: I managed to miss one White House Comms Director completely, someone on here was absolutely positive about there being no safety car, I see that @SeanT has managed not to kill himself shagging, the Remainers are still denying that it's going to happen and lapping up all the EU's spin to friendly journos who continue their prophecy of doom, the Dunkirk soundtrack is brilliant, and the number of comments here is down about 75% on a month ago so it's actually possible to catch up a week of comments without spending a week doing it!
Oh, and Moeen Ali, what a hat trick! Outside value for SPOTY now, or wait for the athletics guys next week to push his price back out again? (Currently 10 on Betfair).
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-safety-standards-workers-rights-jacob-rees-mogg-a7459336.html?amp
Notably from a family whose fortune was made off the backs of British miners!
https://twitter.com/davidyelland/status/892649521536172032
Academics from the British Election Study (BES) found 4 in 10 voters who backed the SNP in 2015 and then voted Leave switched to another party because of Europe.
Professor Ed Fieldhouse and Chris Prosser of Manchester University also found the Scottish Tories prospered by picking up both Leave and Remain voters opposed to independence.</i.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15446561.Pro_Remain_stance_behind_SNP_losses_in_General_Election/?ref=mrb&lp=14
Also, I think there was a distant rumble of thunder and my internet went wonky so if I disappear suddenly, that's why.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Somerset_Coalfield