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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » London falling – a look at next May’s elections in the capital

SystemSystem Posts: 12,260
edited August 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » London falling – a look at next May’s elections in the capital

If a week is a long time in politics and there’s plenty of evidence for that at the moment, perhaps eight months will seem a veritable eternity.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,140
    First, and thank you Stodge. :)
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited August 2017
    Hmmm, a lot can happen in a day, never mind 10 months.... bit early to be predicting Armageddon.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Good article Stodge. Lab take Wandsworth? The times are changing.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Things can only get bitter, an extraordinary yougov poll:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/892329988397117440
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,288
    edited August 2017
    The demographic trends - rising ethnicity, white and middle aged flight, influx of younger workers, all favour Labour, for sure.

    Labour's anti-semitism has held them back in Barnet, but I agree that the tide is strong enough for them to take it this time.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,885
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Things can only get bitter, an extraordinary yougov poll:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/892329988397117440

    Those figures are I suspect, only until push actually comes to shove!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,288
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Things can only get bitter, an extraordinary yougov poll:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/892329988397117440

    The issue being that people on fixed (index linked) pension income are (or think they are) largely divorced from the effects of economic performance. This has much wider electoral consequences as the proportion of pensioners amongst the electorate inexorably rises.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,247
    Good predictions, Stodge.

    I agree that Westminster and Wandsworth could be shocks of the night.

    London is operating on a entirely different political plane these days.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,766
    I think Corbyn Labour's tolerance of anti-Semitism will cost it in Barnet.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,229
    Fascinating! Thank you Stodge - who knows where we'll be next May!

    Love the way the different papers are reporting the long passport queues - in the FT its at 'Europe’s airport travellers face long security lines' (inside) with the EU only getting a look in half way down the article, while the Mail has front page "Shambles at EU Airports'
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,766
    Getting the ferry down to Bilbao today from Portsmouth. Sea conditions do not look the best. As the worst sailor in history (I oncevgot seasick on a pedalo!!) I have a terrible feeling of dread.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,712

    Diesel summit in Germany today as car industry bosses meet the Government to explain where it all went wrong


    http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/diesel-affaere/autobranche-vor-dieselgipfel-unter-druck-15132875/opel-mit-niedrigem-15131867.html
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,726
    WRT Barnet, Brian Coleman's behaviour hit the Conservatives hard in 2014.

    The Conservatives would probably have just clung on in the borough, on June 8th's numbers.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,764
    SouthamObserver said:

    Getting the ferry down to Bilbao today from Portsmouth. Sea conditions do not look the best. As the worst sailor in history (I oncevgot seasick on a pedalo!!) I have a terrible feeling of dread.

    Good luck. Let us know how you go. Off to St malo tomorrow.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,229
    SouthamObserver said:

    Getting the ferry down to Bilbao today from Portsmouth. Sea conditions do not look the best.

    Nope:

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-shipping-forecast

    Oh well, staying on deck & watching the horizon can help, I'm told. Once crossing the Atlantic on the QE2 we had a Force 9 gale - the restaurant staff formed a little tunnel passing passengers from one to the other until you were plonked down in a seat - great fun! (for those of us who don't get seasick!)
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,712
    Polytech boss says he's worth more

    I guess its all those underfunded pensions that pay for him

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/2017/08/01/university-chiefs-should-not-ashamed-salaries-says-yacht-owning/
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,712
    edited August 2017
    The Royal Palace in Berlin gets topped off today with its cross

    A remarkable transformation on the site of the old DDR parliament

    https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article167297292/Stiftung-bereut-Kreuz-auf-Berliner-Stadtschloss.html
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,766
    Jonathan said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Getting the ferry down to Bilbao today from Portsmouth. Sea conditions do not look the best. As the worst sailor in history (I oncevgot seasick on a pedalo!!) I have a terrible feeling of dread.

    Good luck. Let us know how you go. Off to St malo tomorrow.

    We did that one a couple of years ago. It was as smooth as silk.

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    SouthamObserver said:

    Getting the ferry down to Bilbao today from Portsmouth. Sea conditions do not look the best. As the worst sailor in history (I oncevgot seasick on a pedalo!!) I have a terrible feeling of dread.

    That's the best way to take your car to Spain & SW France. We do that route every couple of years. Switch your phone's mobile data off otherwise you'll get a huge bill for roaming via ship's system even if you never use it. Brittany Ferries allegedly has free WiFi
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,885
    edited August 2017
    SouthamObserver said:

    Getting the ferry down to Bilbao today from Portsmouth. Sea conditions do not look the best. As the worst sailor in history (I oncevgot seasick on a pedalo!!) I have a terrible feeling of dread.

    Take it you have some anti-nauseants. Would also suggest a a ginger drink..... tea if you can find any, ale if not.

    And all the best. Enjoy Spain. Or are you driving on to Portugal?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    OldKingCole said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Things can only get bitter, an extraordinary yougov poll:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/892329988397117440

    Those figures are I suspect, only until push actually comes to shove!
    The Swedes fought the Thirty Years War down to the bones of the last Finn. In the same way, the oldies will support Brexit no matter what the cost to those in work.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    On topic, the Conservatives campaigned against London in June. They can hardly complain if London in turn rejects them.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,766
    edited August 2017
    MikeSmithson said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Getting the ferry down to Bilbao today from Portsmouth. Sea conditions do not look the best. As the worst sailor in history (I oncevgot seasick on a pedalo!!) I have a terrible feeling of dread.

    That's the best way to take your car to Spain & SW France. We do that route every couple of years. Switch your phone's mobile data off otherwise you'll get a huge bill for roaming via ship's system even if you never use it. Brittany Ferries allegedly has free WiFi

    Yep - we've done it a few times before. When it's smooth it's fantastic. When it's not, it's not!! But it's still worth it. So much better than two or three days in the car. Especially as I'm the only driver. Goid tip on the data roaming - cheers.

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,712
    AlastairMeeks said:

    On topic, the Conservatives campaigned against London in June. They can hardly complain if London in turn rejects them.

    which of course means Londoners can hardly complain if a conservative government doesnt give them their normal preferential treatment
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Alanbrooke said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    On topic, the Conservatives campaigned against London in June. They can hardly complain if London in turn rejects them.

    which of course means Londoners can hardly complain if a conservative government doesnt give them their normal preferential treatment
    London gets fleeced by the yokels, year in, year out, and gets nothing other than abuse in return. When Brexit crashes and burns, the subsidies to the provinces should be the first thing to go.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,766
    OldKingCole said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Getting the ferry down to Bilbao today from Portsmouth. Sea conditions do not look the best. As the worst sailor in history (I oncevgot seasick on a pedalo!!) I have a terrible feeling of dread.

    Take it you have some anti-nauseants. Would also suggest a a ginger drink..... tea if you can find any, ale if not.

    And all the best. Enjoy Spain. Or are you driving on to Portugal?

    Lots of pills are on hand!! Ginger tea sounds like a good idea.

    We're doing a couple of days in the Basque country, then over the border and up to a place in the middle of nowhere in Gascony.

  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    On topic, the Conservatives campaigned against London in June. They can hardly complain if London in turn rejects them.

    which of course means Londoners can hardly complain if a conservative government doesnt give them their normal preferential treatment
    London gets fleeced by the yokels, year in, year out, and gets nothing other than abuse in return. When Brexit crashes and burns, the subsidies to the provinces should be the first thing to go.
    Regardless of which side of this exchange you sympathise with, it is hardly promising for Britain making a success of Brexit.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,712
    edited August 2017
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    On topic, the Conservatives campaigned against London in June. They can hardly complain if London in turn rejects them.

    which of course means Londoners can hardly complain if a conservative government doesnt give them their normal preferential treatment
    London gets fleeced by the yokels, year in, year out, and gets nothing other than abuse in return. When Brexit crashes and burns, the subsidies to the provinces should be the first thing to go.
    there are more of us than there are of you, thats how democracy works

    we'll ungratefully demand more and none of your lip
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,712

    for those missing their Donald fix

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/scottish-independence-would-be-terrible-says-donald-trump-1-4519872
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,726
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    On topic, the Conservatives campaigned against London in June. They can hardly complain if London in turn rejects them.

    which of course means Londoners can hardly complain if a conservative government doesnt give them their normal preferential treatment
    London gets fleeced by the yokels, year in, year out, and gets nothing other than abuse in return. When Brexit crashes and burns, the subsidies to the provinces should be the first thing to go.
    But, London would be far less important if the Bank of England were not underwriting its financial transactions and if it had not benefitted from generations of spending on it's infrastructure.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,074
    Good morning, everyone.

    What is this strange realm of urban decadence wherein dragons dwell and sly fellows scheme and dream?

    Nevertheless, thanks to Mr. Stodge for his report on the mysterious doings of this 'London', as he calls it.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,726
    AlastairMeeks said:

    OldKingCole said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Things can only get bitter, an extraordinary yougov poll:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/892329988397117440

    Those figures are I suspect, only until push actually comes to shove!
    The Swedes fought the Thirty Years War down to the bones of the last Finn. In the same way, the oldies will support Brexit no matter what the cost to those in work.
    More impressive in their way are the Remainers surveyed who'd accept significant hardship to themselves in order to reverse Brexit and/or to teach Brexit supporters a lesson. That shows real commitment to the cause.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,919
    CarlottaVance said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Getting the ferry down to Bilbao today from Portsmouth. Sea conditions do not look the best.

    Nope:

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-shipping-forecast

    Oh well, staying on deck & watching the horizon can help, I'm told. Once crossing the Atlantic on the QE2 we had a Force 9 gale - the restaurant staff formed a little tunnel passing passengers from one to the other until you were plonked down in a seat - great fun! (for those of us who don't get seasick!)
    A dear friend of mine has a place in France, but hates tunnels. She hates them so much that, when we lived in London, she would never travel by deep tube, and only reluctantly on the shallow lines. Busses were much preferable.

    Therefore the Channel Tunnel was a thing of dread for her. Yet she now uses it occasionally despite her misgivings.

    The reason? A massive storm mid-Channel on one trip, where lorries broke loose and smashed up peoples' cars. Hers was spared, but if it looks like there's going to be a storm, she considers using the Chunnel.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,712
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    What is this strange realm of urban decadence wherein dragons dwell and sly fellows scheme and dream?

    Nevertheless, thanks to Mr. Stodge for his report on the mysterious doings of this 'London', as he calls it.

    Kings Landing ?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,766
    Alanbrooke said:


    for those missing their Donald fix

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/scottish-independence-would-be-terrible-says-donald-trump-1-4519872

    The US President is the perfect example of what happens when you eat too much chlorinated chicken!

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,247
    SouthamObserver said:

    OldKingCole said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Getting the ferry down to Bilbao today from Portsmouth. Sea conditions do not look the best. As the worst sailor in history (I oncevgot seasick on a pedalo!!) I have a terrible feeling of dread.

    Take it you have some anti-nauseants. Would also suggest a a ginger drink..... tea if you can find any, ale if not.

    And all the best. Enjoy Spain. Or are you driving on to Portugal?

    Lots of pills are on hand!! Ginger tea sounds like a good idea.

    We're doing a couple of days in the Basque country, then over the border and up to a place in the middle of nowhere in Gascony.

    Best wishes, SO. Hope you have a great trip (has to be better than flying)

    Have a relaxing holiday.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,712
    SouthamObserver said:

    Alanbrooke said:


    for those missing their Donald fix

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/scottish-independence-would-be-terrible-says-donald-trump-1-4519872

    The US President is the perfect example of what happens when you eat too much chlorinated chicken!

    personally I'd have had him as a steak man

    Obama looks more the chicken sort

    both should learn to keep out of UK internal politics
  • TonyETonyE Posts: 938
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    On topic, the Conservatives campaigned against London in June. They can hardly complain if London in turn rejects them.

    which of course means Londoners can hardly complain if a conservative government doesnt give them their normal preferential treatment
    London gets fleeced by the yokels, year in, year out, and gets nothing other than abuse in return. When Brexit crashes and burns, the subsidies to the provinces should be the first thing to go.
    The 'City' and the financial markets might supply quite a large amount of money to the treasury, but looking around the East End especially, I'd be surprised if some very large parts of London weren't very much a drain on resources rather than nett contributors.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,229
    SouthamObserver said:

    OldKingCole said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Getting the ferry down to Bilbao today from Portsmouth. Sea conditions do not look the best. As the worst sailor in history (I oncevgot seasick on a pedalo!!) I have a terrible feeling of dread.

    Take it you have some anti-nauseants. Would also suggest a a ginger drink..... tea if you can find any, ale if not.

    And all the best. Enjoy Spain. Or are you driving on to Portugal?

    Lots of pills are on hand!! Ginger tea sounds like a good idea.
    Crystallised Ginger is also good - and ideally a cabin lower down and towards the middle/stern - the ones at the front will move most. Good luck!
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    On topic, the Conservatives campaigned against London in June. They can hardly complain if London in turn rejects them.

    which of course means Londoners can hardly complain if a conservative government doesnt give them their normal preferential treatment
    London gets fleeced by the yokels, year in, year out, and gets nothing other than abuse in return. When Brexit crashes and burns, the subsidies to the provinces should be the first thing to go.
    And you wonder why metropolitan liberalism has got a bad name....
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    SouthamObserver said:

    OldKingCole said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Getting the ferry down to Bilbao today from Portsmouth. Sea conditions do not look the best. As the worst sailor in history (I oncevgot seasick on a pedalo!!) I have a terrible feeling of dread.

    Take it you have some anti-nauseants. Would also suggest a a ginger drink..... tea if you can find any, ale if not.

    And all the best. Enjoy Spain. Or are you driving on to Portugal?

    Lots of pills are on hand!! Ginger tea sounds like a good idea.

    We're doing a couple of days in the Basque country, then over the border and up to a place in the middle of nowhere in Gascony.

    Enjoy! Safe travels.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,215
    Re zombies taking over, does Mrs May count?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,885
    TonyE said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    On topic, the Conservatives campaigned against London in June. They can hardly complain if London in turn rejects them.

    which of course means Londoners can hardly complain if a conservative government doesnt give them their normal preferential treatment
    London gets fleeced by the yokels, year in, year out, and gets nothing other than abuse in return. When Brexit crashes and burns, the subsidies to the provinces should be the first thing to go.
    The 'City' and the financial markets might supply quite a large amount of money to the treasury, but looking around the East End especially, I'd be surprised if some very large parts of London weren't very much a drain on resources rather than nett contributors.
    Ah, but the streets are paved with gold (R. Whittington ca 1370)!

    More seriously, I’ve read somewhere that in mediaval and possibly even Elizabethan and Jacobean times child mortality in London was so high that migration for the shires was essential to maintain the population.
    I’m sure some PB-er can correct, support or even provide a reference.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,074
    Mr. Observer, hope you see many splendid historical sights.

    King Cole, larger settlements (and London was predominant in population terms even in the 14th century, and earlier) were more prone to both disease outbreaks and fire, so that would make sense.

    Obviously the Black Death did not enhance mortality rates, but another driving factor was that it increased the value of labour which meant peasant workers were suddenly in demand. Often they'd move to a better paying lord's manor, but many, when there were too few to maintain their own manor or if their lord was dead and they needed work, migrated to urban centres for work.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,726
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Observer, hope you see many splendid historical sights.

    King Cole, larger settlements (and London was predominant in population terms even in the 14th century, and earlier) were more prone to both disease outbreaks and fire, so that would make sense.

    Obviously the Black Death did not enhance mortality rates, but another driving factor was that it increased the value of labour which meant peasant workers were suddenly in demand. Often they'd move to a better paying lord's manor, but many, when there were too few to maintain their own manor or if their lord was dead and they needed work, migrated to urban centres for work.

    For centuries, London's death rate exceeded its birthrate.

    I'd recommend Juliet Barker's book on the Peasants' revolt for its analysis of economic changes caused by the Black Death. It's a good example of a revolt occurring because things are getting better, not worse.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,111
    Sean_F said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    On topic, the Conservatives campaigned against London in June. They can hardly complain if London in turn rejects them.

    which of course means Londoners can hardly complain if a conservative government doesnt give them their normal preferential treatment
    London gets fleeced by the yokels, year in, year out, and gets nothing other than abuse in return. When Brexit crashes and burns, the subsidies to the provinces should be the first thing to go.
    But, London would be far less important if the Bank of England were not underwriting its financial transactions and if it had not benefitted from generations of spending on it's infrastructure.
    Yeah and if my uncle had tits...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,215
    Historically tired and incompetent governments have suffered a material hollowing out of their local authority base. This happened in the period post 92 to the Tories and to Labour in the latter Blair/Brown era. It is a way for people to express their frustration. One of the more remarkable achievements under Cameron was that the very strong position that the Tories had built in opposition in local government was largely retained.

    At the moment it looks very likely that this government will follow the more traditional path. If May is still staggering on at the time of these elections with anything like the current (lack of) control or purpose I suspect Stodge is seriously underestimating Tory losses. The Tories held onto to the seats in London because there were a sufficiently large number of people motivated to stop Corbyn. Without that factor there may well be carnage.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,367
    Mr Meeks,

    In the civilised parts of the UK, Londoners are regarded as the epitome of sloth and indulgence, unworthy of pity because they bring it on themselves. House prices are ludicrous, beer prices daft, and living conditions Dickensian. Yet the media believe London is the UK.

    That's why the term ....' The metropolitan elite' is so toxic.

    I've defended you. Many up here say you're not fit to live in a pig sty. I say you are.

    But there's hope for you all. I believe that at heart, you're good people deluded by your surroundings.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,726
    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    On topic, the Conservatives campaigned against London in June. They can hardly complain if London in turn rejects them.

    which of course means Londoners can hardly complain if a conservative government doesnt give them their normal preferential treatment
    London gets fleeced by the yokels, year in, year out, and gets nothing other than abuse in return. When Brexit crashes and burns, the subsidies to the provinces should be the first thing to go.
    But, London would be far less important if the Bank of England were not underwriting its financial transactions and if it had not benefitted from generations of spending on it's infrastructure.
    Yeah and if my uncle had tits...
    Sure, but it's a counter to the view that the provincials are fleecing London. London would be far less significant without the provincials.

    And it's just as well for London's prosperity that the rest of the country doesn't vote the same way as London does.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,885
    Sean_F said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Observer, hope you see many splendid historical sights.

    King Cole, larger settlements (and London was predominant in population terms even in the 14th century, and earlier) were more prone to both disease outbreaks and fire, so that would make sense.

    Obviously the Black Death did not enhance mortality rates, but another driving factor was that it increased the value of labour which meant peasant workers were suddenly in demand. Often they'd move to a better paying lord's manor, but many, when there were too few to maintain their own manor or if their lord was dead and they needed work, migrated to urban centres for work.

    For centuries, London's death rate exceeded its birthrate.

    I'd recommend Juliet Barker's book on the Peasants' revolt for its analysis of economic changes caused by the Black Death. It's a good example of a revolt occurring because things are getting better, not worse.
    Having scanned a review of the book, I’m coming to the view that our view of the Revolt is that it suffers from a common historical proble,, viz that it is written by the victors.

    As an Essex man, I’m quite proud of the fact that many of the leaders were Essex men. Indeed, in Basildon there is a ‘Wat Tyler Country Park’.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,764
    DavidL said:

    Re zombies taking over, does Mrs May count?

    The NUZ, national union of zombies, has formally complained about the offensive comparison, which undermines years of effort rolling back anti-zombie prejudice.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    CD13 said:

    Mr Meeks,

    In the civilised parts of the UK, Londoners are regarded as the epitome of sloth and indulgence, unworthy of pity because they bring it on themselves. House prices are ludicrous, beer prices daft, and living conditions Dickensian. Yet the media believe London is the UK.

    That's why the term ....' The metropolitan elite' is so toxic.

    I've defended you. Many up here say you're not fit to live in a pig sty. I say you are.

    But there's hope for you all. I believe that at heart, you're good people deluded by your surroundings.

    London is a city with many problems. They are the problems of a successful world city.

    The rest of Britain is a country with many problems. They are the problems of a country in long term decline with no understanding of how or even wish to turn that around.
  • TonyETonyE Posts: 938
    AlastairMeeks said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Meeks,

    In the civilised parts of the UK, Londoners are regarded as the epitome of sloth and indulgence, unworthy of pity because they bring it on themselves. House prices are ludicrous, beer prices daft, and living conditions Dickensian. Yet the media believe London is the UK.

    That's why the term ....' The metropolitan elite' is so toxic.

    I've defended you. Many up here say you're not fit to live in a pig sty. I say you are.

    But there's hope for you all. I believe that at heart, you're good people deluded by your surroundings.

    London is a city with many problems. They are the problems of a successful world city.

    The rest of Britain is a country with many problems. They are the problems of a country in long term decline with no understanding of how or even wish to turn that around.
    'World City'. Yes - that is the problem. It tries to pretend it represents Britain, but really it represents itself and only itself. The fact that our politicians and media are based there tend to lend weight to the feeling that they don't represent the rest of us very well either.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    edited August 2017
    Alanbrooke said:


    for those missing their Donald fix

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/scottish-independence-would-be-terrible-says-donald-trump-1-4519872

    Shit! That's them gone then......
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,726
    OldKingCole said:

    Sean_F said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Observer, hope you see many splendid historical sights.

    King Cole, larger settlements (and London was predominant in population terms even in the 14th century, and earlier) were more prone to both disease outbreaks and fire, so that would make sense.

    Obviously the Black Death did not enhance mortality rates, but another driving factor was that it increased the value of labour which meant peasant workers were suddenly in demand. Often they'd move to a better paying lord's manor, but many, when there were too few to maintain their own manor or if their lord was dead and they needed work, migrated to urban centres for work.

    For centuries, London's death rate exceeded its birthrate.

    I'd recommend Juliet Barker's book on the Peasants' revolt for its analysis of economic changes caused by the Black Death. It's a good example of a revolt occurring because things are getting better, not worse.
    Having scanned a review of the book, I’m coming to the view that our view of the Revolt is that it suffers from a common historical proble,, viz that it is written by the victors.

    As an Essex man, I’m quite proud of the fact that many of the leaders were Essex men. Indeed, in Basildon there is a ‘Wat Tyler Country Park’.
    It was mostly a middle class revolt against excessive taxation and corrupt government. Some of the rebels were really quite Thatcherite.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    TonyE said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Meeks,

    In the civilised parts of the UK, Londoners are regarded as the epitome of sloth and indulgence, unworthy of pity because they bring it on themselves. House prices are ludicrous, beer prices daft, and living conditions Dickensian. Yet the media believe London is the UK.

    That's why the term ....' The metropolitan elite' is so toxic.

    I've defended you. Many up here say you're not fit to live in a pig sty. I say you are.

    But there's hope for you all. I believe that at heart, you're good people deluded by your surroundings.

    London is a city with many problems. They are the problems of a successful world city.

    The rest of Britain is a country with many problems. They are the problems of a country in long term decline with no understanding of how or even wish to turn that around.
    'World City'. Yes - that is the problem. It tries to pretend it represents Britain, but really it represents itself and only itself. The fact that our politicians and media are based there tend to lend weight to the feeling that they don't represent the rest of us very well either.
    It's the only bit of Britain that is equipped for the 21st century. The rest simultaneously sponges off it and complains about it.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,274
    Oh good. A London v The Rest thread. Unfortunately I'm one of the many who have to commute between the two.
  • TonyETonyE Posts: 938
    AlastairMeeks said:

    TonyE said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Meeks,

    In the civilised parts of the UK, Londoners are regarded as the epitome of sloth and indulgence, unworthy of pity because they bring it on themselves. House prices are ludicrous, beer prices daft, and living conditions Dickensian. Yet the media believe London is the UK.

    That's why the term ....' The metropolitan elite' is so toxic.

    I've defended you. Many up here say you're not fit to live in a pig sty. I say you are.

    But there's hope for you all. I believe that at heart, you're good people deluded by your surroundings.

    London is a city with many problems. They are the problems of a successful world city.

    The rest of Britain is a country with many problems. They are the problems of a country in long term decline with no understanding of how or even wish to turn that around.
    'World City'. Yes - that is the problem. It tries to pretend it represents Britain, but really it represents itself and only itself. The fact that our politicians and media are based there tend to lend weight to the feeling that they don't represent the rest of us very well either.
    It's the only bit of Britain that is equipped for the 21st century. The rest simultaneously sponges off it and complains about it.
    If it is, it's because the rest of the country is under invested by the people sitting in Whitehall, in London.
    The attempt to sell the idea that London supports us all, because we aren't intelligent or modern enough to do it for ourselves is both arrogant and wrong. It's how the bubble thinks and behaves, and why it is mistrusted.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    TonyE said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    TonyE said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Meeks,

    In the civilised parts of the UK, Londoners are regarded as the epitome of sloth and indulgence, unworthy of pity because they bring it on themselves. House prices are ludicrous, beer prices daft, and living conditions Dickensian. Yet the media believe London is the UK.

    That's why the term ....' The metropolitan elite' is so toxic.

    I've defended you. Many up here say you're not fit to live in a pig sty. I say you are.

    But there's hope for you all. I believe that at heart, you're good people deluded by your surroundings.

    London is a city with many problems. They are the problems of a successful world city.

    The rest of Britain is a country with many problems. They are the problems of a country in long term decline with no understanding of how or even wish to turn that around.
    'World City'. Yes - that is the problem. It tries to pretend it represents Britain, but really it represents itself and only itself. The fact that our politicians and media are based there tend to lend weight to the feeling that they don't represent the rest of us very well either.
    It's the only bit of Britain that is equipped for the 21st century. The rest simultaneously sponges off it and complains about it.
    If it is, it's because the rest of the country is under invested by the people sitting in Whitehall, in London.
    The attempt to sell the idea that London supports us all, because we aren't intelligent or modern enough to do it for ourselves is both arrogant and wrong. It's how the bubble thinks and behaves, and why it is mistrusted.
    Run your profits, cut your losses.

    Vast sums leave London every year to prop up the provinces. It's a bit rich to complain of underinvestment.

    It turns out the Conservatives have got a magic money tree. It's called London. Unfortunately, they're salting its roots.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,074
    King Cole, it's interesting when that's not the case. Polybius being a third party (albeit one with Roman friends) may have helped make his work more objective, and, of course, Thucydides was on the losing side in the Peloponnesian War.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    I think labour gain in Kensington and Chelsea and NOC in Hillingdon. I also think Tory (just) hold Westminster.

    Overall a very bad night for the Conservatives in London, they could be wiped out in some councils like Brent and Ealing if there is enough anger at the government, even though they took control of Ealing council in 2006.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,919
    AlastairMeeks said:

    TonyE said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Meeks,

    In the civilised parts of the UK, Londoners are regarded as the epitome of sloth and indulgence, unworthy of pity because they bring it on themselves. House prices are ludicrous, beer prices daft, and living conditions Dickensian. Yet the media believe London is the UK.

    That's why the term ....' The metropolitan elite' is so toxic.

    I've defended you. Many up here say you're not fit to live in a pig sty. I say you are.

    But there's hope for you all. I believe that at heart, you're good people deluded by your surroundings.

    London is a city with many problems. They are the problems of a successful world city.

    The rest of Britain is a country with many problems. They are the problems of a country in long term decline with no understanding of how or even wish to turn that around.
    'World City'. Yes - that is the problem. It tries to pretend it represents Britain, but really it represents itself and only itself. The fact that our politicians and media are based there tend to lend weight to the feeling that they don't represent the rest of us very well either.
    It's the only bit of Britain that is equipped for the 21st century. The rest simultaneously sponges off it and complains about it.
    Big opportunity for the London Independence Party next year then.

    "Take back control from the carrot-crunchers"

    C'mon Alastair, this is your big chance.

    ;-)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,074
    Mr. Richard, saw a snippet, post-election, of the Yorkshire Party advocating voting for them next time on the basis of the DUP deal.

    A perfect example of how regional assemblies/parties would tear England into squabbling fiefdoms.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,970
    AlastairMeeks said:

    TonyE said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    TonyE said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Meeks,

    In the civilised parts of the UK, Londoners are regarded as the epitome of sloth and indulgence, unworthy of pity because they bring it on themselves. House prices are ludicrous, beer prices daft, and living conditions Dickensian. Yet the media believe London is the UK.

    That's why the term ....' The metropolitan elite' is so toxic.

    I've defended you. Many up here say you're not fit to live in a pig sty. I say you are.

    But there's hope for you all. I believe that at heart, you're good people deluded by your surroundings.

    London is a city with many problems. They are the problems of a successful world city.

    The rest of Britain is a country with many problems. They are the problems of a country in long term decline with no understanding of how or even wish to turn that around.
    'World City'. Yes - that is the problem. It tries to pretend it represents Britain, but really it represents itself and only itself. The fact that our politicians and media are based there tend to lend weight to the feeling that they don't represent the rest of us very well either.
    It's the only bit of Britain that is equipped for the 21st century. The rest simultaneously sponges off it and complains about it.
    If it is, it's because the rest of the country is under invested by the people sitting in Whitehall, in London.
    The attempt to sell the idea that London supports us all, because we aren't intelligent or modern enough to do it for ourselves is both arrogant and wrong. It's how the bubble thinks and behaves, and why it is mistrusted.
    Run your profits, cut your losses.

    Vast sums leave London every year to prop up the provinces. It's a bit rich to complain of underinvestment...
    Cites ?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,726
    AlastairMeeks said:

    TonyE said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Meeks,

    In the civilised parts of the UK, Londoners are regarded as the epitome of sloth and indulgence, unworthy of pity because they bring it on themselves. House prices are ludicrous, beer prices daft, and living conditions Dickensian. Yet the media believe London is the UK.

    That's why the term ....' The metropolitan elite' is so toxic.

    I've defended you. Many up here say you're not fit to live in a pig sty. I say you are.

    But there's hope for you all. I believe that at heart, you're good people deluded by your surroundings.

    London is a city with many problems. They are the problems of a successful world city.

    The rest of Britain is a country with many problems. They are the problems of a country in long term decline with no understanding of how or even wish to turn that around.
    'World City'. Yes - that is the problem. It tries to pretend it represents Britain, but really it represents itself and only itself. The fact that our politicians and media are based there tend to lend weight to the feeling that they don't represent the rest of us very well either.
    It's the only bit of Britain that is equipped for the 21st century. The rest simultaneously sponges off it and complains about it.
    The rest of Britain saves London from itself. If we all voted the same way as London, Corbyn would enjoy a 200 seat majority, and where would the City be then?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,215
    Jonathan said:

    DavidL said:

    Re zombies taking over, does Mrs May count?

    The NUZ, national union of zombies, has formally complained about the offensive comparison, which undermines years of effort rolling back anti-zombie prejudice.
    The government really does play up the stereotypical features in a way that the NUZ might find unhelpful: blundering around pointlessly in groups, almost complete incoherence and with a wild look in the eyes. I am sure many upstanding members of the NUZ are indeed offended.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,845
    Alanbrooke said:


    for those missing their Donald fix

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/scottish-independence-would-be-terrible-says-donald-trump-1-4519872

    “What would they do with the British Open if they ever got out? They’d no longer have the British Open"

    I hope someone explained to him why this wouldn't be a problem.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,726
    nunuone said:

    I think labour gain in Kensington and Chelsea and NOC in Hillingdon. I also think Tory (just) hold Westminster.

    Overall a very bad night for the Conservatives in London, they could be wiped out in some councils like Brent and Ealing if there is enough anger at the government, even though they took control of Ealing council in 2006.

    The leads in the South Kensington and Chelsea wards are gigantic. The Conservatives could survive a huge swing and retain control.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Sean_F said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    TonyE said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Meeks,

    In the civilised parts of the UK, Londoners are regarded as the epitome of sloth and indulgence, unworthy of pity because they bring it on themselves. House prices are ludicrous, beer prices daft, and living conditions Dickensian. Yet the media believe London is the UK.

    That's why the term ....' The metropolitan elite' is so toxic.

    I've defended you. Many up here say you're not fit to live in a pig sty. I say you are.

    But there's hope for you all. I believe that at heart, you're good people deluded by your surroundings.

    London is a city with many problems. They are the problems of a successful world city.

    The rest of Britain is a country with many problems. They are the problems of a country in long term decline with no understanding of how or even wish to turn that around.
    'World City'. Yes - that is the problem. It tries to pretend it represents Britain, but really it represents itself and only itself. The fact that our politicians and media are based there tend to lend weight to the feeling that they don't represent the rest of us very well either.
    It's the only bit of Britain that is equipped for the 21st century. The rest simultaneously sponges off it and complains about it.
    The rest of Britain saves London from itself. If we all voted the same way as London, Corbyn would enjoy a 200 seat majority, and where would the City be then?
    It's not obvious that the Conservatives' headbanger Brexit will be better for the City than a ramshackle Labour government stuffed with Remain-supporting Labour MPs would have been. Both prospects were and are grim.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,274
    williamglenn said:

    Alanbrooke said:


    for those missing their Donald fix

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/scottish-independence-would-be-terrible-says-donald-trump-1-4519872

    “What would they do with the British Open if they ever got out? They’d no longer have the British Open"

    I hope someone explained to him why this wouldn't be a problem.
    :D
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,764
    AlastairMeeks said:

    TonyE said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Meeks,

    In the civilised parts of the UK, Londoners are regarded as the epitome of sloth and indulgence, unworthy of pity because they bring it on themselves. House prices are ludicrous, beer prices daft, and living conditions Dickensian. Yet the media believe London is the UK.

    That's why the term ....' The metropolitan elite' is so toxic.

    I've defended you. Many up here say you're not fit to live in a pig sty. I say you are.

    But there's hope for you all. I believe that at heart, you're good people deluded by your surroundings.

    London is a city with many problems. They are the problems of a successful world city.

    The rest of Britain is a country with many problems. They are the problems of a country in long term decline with no understanding of how or even wish to turn that around.
    'World City'. Yes - that is the problem. It tries to pretend it represents Britain, but really it represents itself and only itself. The fact that our politicians and media are based there tend to lend weight to the feeling that they don't represent the rest of us very well either.
    It's the only bit of Britain that is equipped for the 21st century. The rest simultaneously sponges off it and complains about it.
    Don't be daft. Plenty going on outside London.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Things can only get bitter, an extraordinary yougov poll:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/892329988397117440

    Says the guy who has nothing but praise for corbyn and that must go with his economic policies.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,919
    DavidL said:

    Historically tired and incompetent governments have suffered a material hollowing out of their local authority base. This happened in the period post 92 to the Tories and to Labour in the latter Blair/Brown era. It is a way for people to express their frustration. One of the more remarkable achievements under Cameron was that the very strong position that the Tories had built in opposition in local government was largely retained.

    At the moment it looks very likely that this government will follow the more traditional path. If May is still staggering on at the time of these elections with anything like the current (lack of) control or purpose I suspect Stodge is seriously underestimating Tory losses. The Tories held onto to the seats in London because there were a sufficiently large number of people motivated to stop Corbyn. Without that factor there may well be carnage.

    The local election results from 2011 to 2014 were reminiscent of those in the mid to late 1980s.

    I remember telling IOS in 2012 that EdM had only won a Kinnock type victory when he was claiming that Labour were half way to another 1997.

    As to the London elections next year it should be remembered that in many of the boroughs the Conservatives are already actually or almost wiped out:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_local_elections,_2014

    The demographic changes in middle suburbia has already crippled them in places like Brent, Enfield, Ealing, Harrow, Redbridge and Merton.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Jonathan said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    TonyE said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Meeks,

    In the civilised parts of the UK, Londoners are regarded as the epitome of sloth and indulgence, unworthy of pity because they bring it on themselves. House prices are ludicrous, beer prices daft, and living conditions Dickensian. Yet the media believe London is the UK.

    That's why the term ....' The metropolitan elite' is so toxic.

    I've defended you. Many up here say you're not fit to live in a pig sty. I say you are.

    But there's hope for you all. I believe that at heart, you're good people deluded by your surroundings.

    London is a city with many problems. They are the problems of a successful world city.

    The rest of Britain is a country with many problems. They are the problems of a country in long term decline with no understanding of how or even wish to turn that around.
    'World City'. Yes - that is the problem. It tries to pretend it represents Britain, but really it represents itself and only itself. The fact that our politicians and media are based there tend to lend weight to the feeling that they don't represent the rest of us very well either.
    It's the only bit of Britain that is equipped for the 21st century. The rest simultaneously sponges off it and complains about it.
    Don't be daft. Plenty going on outside London.
    I'm sure there's lots of innovative jam-making if you go looking for it.
  • TonyETonyE Posts: 938
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Sean_F said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    TonyE said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Meeks,

    In the civilised parts of the UK, Londoners are regarded as the epitome of sloth and indulgence, unworthy of pity because they bring it on themselves. House prices are ludicrous, beer prices daft, and living conditions Dickensian. Yet the media believe London is the UK.

    That's why the term ....' The metropolitan elite' is so toxic.

    I've defended you. Many up here say you're not fit to live in a pig sty. I say you are.

    But there's hope for you all. I believe that at heart, you're good people deluded by your surroundings.

    London is a city with many problems. They are the problems of a successful world city.

    The rest of Britain is a country with many problems. They are the problems of a country in long term decline with no understanding of how or even wish to turn that around.
    'World City'. Yes - that is the problem. It tries to pretend it represents Britain, but really it represents itself and only itself. The fact that our politicians and media are based there tend to lend weight to the feeling that they don't represent the rest of us very well either.
    It's the only bit of Britain that is equipped for the 21st century. The rest simultaneously sponges off it and complains about it.
    The rest of Britain saves London from itself. If we all voted the same way as London, Corbyn would enjoy a 200 seat majority, and where would the City be then?
    It's not obvious that the Conservatives' headbanger Brexit will be better for the City than a ramshackle Labour government stuffed with Remain-supporting Labour MPs would have been. Both prospects were and are grim.
    Sorry to tell you this, but the official position of the Labour Party is to leave the EU, EEA and Customs Union.
    Well it was yesterday. Tomorrow is anyone's guess. Comrade Corbyn, saviour of the masses, has always been anti EU
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,726
    SouthamObserver said:

    OldKingCole said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Getting the ferry down to Bilbao today from Portsmouth. Sea conditions do not look the best. As the worst sailor in history (I oncevgot seasick on a pedalo!!) I have a terrible feeling of dread.

    Take it you have some anti-nauseants. Would also suggest a a ginger drink..... tea if you can find any, ale if not.

    And all the best. Enjoy Spain. Or are you driving on to Portugal?

    Lots of pills are on hand!! Ginger tea sounds like a good idea.

    We're doing a couple of days in the Basque country, then over the border and up to a place in the middle of nowhere in Gascony.

    Good luck SO. Just remember you are in good company. Nelson reputedly was seasick every time he set foot on a ship. And for a lesser example I have spent 25 years working on and off floating rigs and spent most of that time seasick. So I have a bottomless well of sympathy for you.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    London is the capital of England only because the say of the English people over the centuries,the people who made london what it is today.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,919
    Sean_F said:

    nunuone said:

    I think labour gain in Kensington and Chelsea and NOC in Hillingdon. I also think Tory (just) hold Westminster.

    Overall a very bad night for the Conservatives in London, they could be wiped out in some councils like Brent and Ealing if there is enough anger at the government, even though they took control of Ealing council in 2006.

    The leads in the South Kensington and Chelsea wards are gigantic. The Conservatives could survive a huge swing and retain control.
    Indeed so:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kensington_and_Chelsea_London_Borough_Council_election,_2014

    And I suspect the residents of the South Ken and Chelsea million quid properties will not be keen on Corbyn's gang setting their council tax for the next four years.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,074
    Incidentally, if we do have a recession that coincides with leaving the EU it's possible it'll cause less harm to the incumbent party of government than it otherwise would.

    We saw this with the financial crisis. We were heading for a recession anyway due to the housing bubble, but because the overriding factor was a global financial crisis (which obviously included a large British element because of our financial sector) it wasn't a purely 'Labour' problem, in the voters' minds.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,726
    another_richard said:

    DavidL said:

    Historically tired and incompetent governments have suffered a material hollowing out of their local authority base. This happened in the period post 92 to the Tories and to Labour in the latter Blair/Brown era. It is a way for people to express their frustration. One of the more remarkable achievements under Cameron was that the very strong position that the Tories had built in opposition in local government was largely retained.

    At the moment it looks very likely that this government will follow the more traditional path. If May is still staggering on at the time of these elections with anything like the current (lack of) control or purpose I suspect Stodge is seriously underestimating Tory losses. The Tories held onto to the seats in London because there were a sufficiently large number of people motivated to stop Corbyn. Without that factor there may well be carnage.

    The local election results from 2011 to 2014 were reminiscent of those in the mid to late 1980s.

    I remember telling IOS in 2012 that EdM had only won a Kinnock type victory when he was claiming that Labour were half way to another 1997.

    As to the London elections next year it should be remembered that in many of the boroughs the Conservatives are already actually or almost wiped out:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_local_elections,_2014

    The demographic changes in middle suburbia has already crippled them in places like Brent, Enfield, Ealing, Harrow, Redbridge and Merton.
    Harrow's an exception as the Conservatives enjoy lots of support among well-off Hindus in places like Kenton, Stanmore, Belmont, and Canon's Park.

    You're right about the rest. The C1/C2 home-owning voters that dependably backed the Conservatives in wards like Southbury, Turkey Street, Enfield Lock, Enfield Chase have mostly moved away.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Tykejohnno said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Things can only get bitter, an extraordinary yougov poll:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/892329988397117440

    Says the guy who has nothing but praise for corbyn and that must go with his economic policies.
    My view of Corbyn mirrors the national mood. 6 months ago I had little positive to say, now I find quite a lot of positives. I remain critical of his economic policy, but I am keen on his social policy and Brexit policy. I want a workers Brexit, not a Bosses Brexit.

    My point in posting the tweet was the amount of bitterness shown on BOTH sides. The Economy can go to hell, when deeper beliefs prevail.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,919
    Sean_F said:

    another_richard said:

    DavidL said:

    Historically tired and incompetent governments have suffered a material hollowing out of their local authority base. This happened in the period post 92 to the Tories and to Labour in the latter Blair/Brown era. It is a way for people to express their frustration. One of the more remarkable achievements under Cameron was that the very strong position that the Tories had built in opposition in local government was largely retained.

    At the moment it looks very likely that this government will follow the more traditional path. If May is still staggering on at the time of these elections with anything like the current (lack of) control or purpose I suspect Stodge is seriously underestimating Tory losses. The Tories held onto to the seats in London because there were a sufficiently large number of people motivated to stop Corbyn. Without that factor there may well be carnage.

    The local election results from 2011 to 2014 were reminiscent of those in the mid to late 1980s.

    I remember telling IOS in 2012 that EdM had only won a Kinnock type victory when he was claiming that Labour were half way to another 1997.

    As to the London elections next year it should be remembered that in many of the boroughs the Conservatives are already actually or almost wiped out:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_local_elections,_2014

    The demographic changes in middle suburbia has already crippled them in places like Brent, Enfield, Ealing, Harrow, Redbridge and Merton.
    Harrow's an exception as the Conservatives enjoy lots of support among well-off Hindus in places like Kenton, Stanmore, Belmont, and Canon's Park.

    You're right about the rest. The C1/C2 home-owning voters that dependably backed the Conservatives in wards like Southbury, Turkey Street, Enfield Lock, Enfield Chase have mostly moved away.
    A rather severe geographical divide in Harrow:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harrow_London_Borough_Council_election,_2014

    While the north of the borough votes like Hertfordshire the south has imitated Brent and Ealing.

    There are similar big divides in Hillingdon, Croydon and somewhat differently Merton.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,520
    Morning all, catching up after a week of no internet in the middle of Ukrainian nowhere.

    Some very good articles on here, including this one getting back on the subject of political betting - well done @Stodge.

    In other news: I managed to miss one White House Comms Director completely, someone on here was absolutely positive about there being no safety car, I see that @SeanT has managed not to kill himself shagging, the Remainers are still denying that it's going to happen and lapping up all the EU's spin to friendly journos who continue their prophecy of doom, the Dunkirk soundtrack is brilliant, and the number of comments here is down about 75% on a month ago so it's actually possible to catch up a week of comments without spending a week doing it!

    Oh, and Moeen Ali, what a hat trick! Outside value for SPOTY now, or wait for the athletics guys next week to push his price back out again? (Currently 10 on Betfair).
  • AllanAllan Posts: 262
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Things can only get bitter, an extraordinary yougov poll:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/892329988397117440

    Says the guy who has nothing but praise for corbyn and that must go with his economic policies.
    "I want a workers Brexit, not a Bosses Brexit. "
    We would have a workers Brexit if unskilled EU migration is radically cut back. It is the Bosses of the unskilled that would be unhappy.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    tlg86 said:

    Oh good. A London v The Rest thread. Unfortunately I'm one of the many who have to commute between the two.

    And that is worth noting. Many of the wealth creators are commuters, even from Leics. London cannot be seperated from the rest of the nation, and particularly the SE of England, economically as simply as some would have.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Allan said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Things can only get bitter, an extraordinary yougov poll:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/892329988397117440

    Says the guy who has nothing but praise for corbyn and that must go with his economic policies.
    "I want a workers Brexit, not a Bosses Brexit. "
    We would have a workers Brexit if unskilled EU migration is radically cut back. It is the Bosses of the unskilled that would be unhappy.
    I think that just one component, of a "workers Brexit". A bonfire of regulation and worker protections in some Hannanite Chlorine soaked fantasy is not what I want.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,074
    Mr. Sandpit, it's even better than that. Scaramucci's[sp] official start date was actually 15 August.
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    Alanbrooke said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    On topic, the Conservatives campaigned against London in June. They can hardly complain if London in turn rejects them.

    which of course means Londoners can hardly complain if a conservative government doesnt give them their normal preferential treatment
    Most of the tory government of course reside and work in London, so that treatment will carry on
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,726
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Allan said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Things can only get bitter, an extraordinary yougov poll:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/892329988397117440

    Says the guy who has nothing but praise for corbyn and that must go with his economic policies.
    "I want a workers Brexit, not a Bosses Brexit. "
    We would have a workers Brexit if unskilled EU migration is radically cut back. It is the Bosses of the unskilled that would be unhappy.
    I think that just one component, of a "workers Brexit". A bonfire of regulation and worker protections in some Hannanite Chlorine soaked fantasy is not what I want.
    I want Brexit to lead to the repeal of the Mines and Factories Act, 1842.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Sean_F said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Allan said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Things can only get bitter, an extraordinary yougov poll:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/892329988397117440

    Says the guy who has nothing but praise for corbyn and that must go with his economic policies.
    "I want a workers Brexit, not a Bosses Brexit. "
    We would have a workers Brexit if unskilled EU migration is radically cut back. It is the Bosses of the unskilled that would be unhappy.
    I think that just one component, of a "workers Brexit". A bonfire of regulation and worker protections in some Hannanite Chlorine soaked fantasy is not what I want.
    I want Brexit to lead to the repeal of the Mines and Factories Act, 1842.
    I am sure that you jest (not least because we have few mines or factories employing the workers nowadays!) but certainly that is the view of at least one prominent potential Tory leader:

    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-safety-standards-workers-rights-jacob-rees-mogg-a7459336.html?amp

    Notably from a family whose fortune was made off the backs of British miners!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,845
    edited August 2017
    On topic, more hubris from Boris Johnson's economic guru:

    https://twitter.com/davidyelland/status/892649521536172032
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,229
    MANY SNP supporters were “driven away” by the party’s strong anti-Brexit stance, leading to “heavy losses” at the General Election, the definitive study of the vote has confirmed.

    Academics from the British Election Study (BES) found 4 in 10 voters who backed the SNP in 2015 and then voted Leave switched to another party because of Europe.

    Professor Ed Fieldhouse and Chris Prosser of Manchester University also found the Scottish Tories prospered by picking up both Leave and Remain voters opposed to independence.</i.

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15446561.Pro_Remain_stance_behind_SNP_losses_in_General_Election/?ref=mrb&lp=14
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,885
    Sean_F said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Sean_F said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Observer, hope you see many splendid historical sights.

    King Cole, larger settlements (and London was predominant in population terms even in the 14th century, and earlier) were more prone to both disease outbreaks and fire, so that would make sense.

    Obviously the Black Death did not enhance mortality rates, but another driving factor was that it increased the value of labour which meant peasant workers were suddenly in demand. Often they'd move to a better paying lord's manor, but many, when there were too few to maintain their own manor or if their lord was dead and they needed work, migrated to urban centres for work.

    For centuries, London's death rate exceeded its birthrate.

    I'd recommend Juliet Barker's book on the Peasants' revolt for its analysis of economic changes caused by the Black Death. It's a good example of a revolt occurring because things are getting better, not worse.
    Having scanned a review of the book, I’m coming to the view that our view of the Revolt is that it suffers from a common historical proble,, viz that it is written by the victors.

    As an Essex man, I’m quite proud of the fact that many of the leaders were Essex men. Indeed, in Basildon there is a ‘Wat Tyler Country Park’.
    It was mostly a middle class revolt against excessive taxation and corrupt government. Some of the rebels were really quite Thatcherite.
    No, Thatcher was a throwback to the 14th C!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,520
    SouthamObserver said:

    Getting the ferry down to Bilbao today from Portsmouth. Sea conditions do not look the best. As the worst sailor in history (I oncevgot seasick on a pedalo!!) I have a terrible feeling of dread.

    Good luck, done that trip a few times too. Still better than three days in the car, even if it does get a little choppy. Nothing worse than arriving on holiday knackered from the drive there.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    AlastairMeeks said:

    yokels [...] abuse in return.

    Any idea why that might be?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,919
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Sean_F said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Allan said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Things can only get bitter, an extraordinary yougov poll:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/892329988397117440

    Says the guy who has nothing but praise for corbyn and that must go with his economic policies.
    "I want a workers Brexit, not a Bosses Brexit. "
    We would have a workers Brexit if unskilled EU migration is radically cut back. It is the Bosses of the unskilled that would be unhappy.
    I think that just one component, of a "workers Brexit". A bonfire of regulation and worker protections in some Hannanite Chlorine soaked fantasy is not what I want.
    I want Brexit to lead to the repeal of the Mines and Factories Act, 1842.
    I am sure that you jest (not least because we have few mines or factories employing the workers nowadays!) but certainly that is the view of at least one prominent potential Tory leader:

    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-safety-standards-workers-rights-jacob-rees-mogg-a7459336.html?amp

    Notably from a family whose fortune was made off the backs of British miners!
    Having JRM as the Bradley Hardacre of Frome would be priceless.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,726
    edited August 2017
    foxinsoxuk said:




    Notably from a family whose fortune was made off the backs of British miners!

    I was unaware of that and can find no reference to it. Could you perhaps expand on that claim?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,074
    F1: Kubica testing today. He completed the cockpit evacuation test yesterday.

    Also, I think there was a distant rumble of thunder and my internet went wonky so if I disappear suddenly, that's why.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,885
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    foxinsoxuk said:




    Notably from a family whose fortune was made off the backs of British miners!

    I was unaware of that and can find no reference to it. Could you perhaps expand on that claim?
    'A member of an established Somerset family of coal mine owners’ says Wikipedia, although the item which it quotes as a source is no longer available.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    edited August 2017
    OldKingCole said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    foxinsoxuk said:




    Notably from a family whose fortune was made off the backs of British miners!

    I was unaware of that and can find no reference to it. Could you perhaps expand on that claim?
    'A member of an established Somerset family of coal mine owners’ says Wikipedia, although the item which it quotes as a source is no longer available.
    Some evidence here, see section on Pensford basin in this article on the Somerset coalfield:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Somerset_Coalfield

This discussion has been closed.