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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Thirteen Saturdays ago the money was going on TMay’s Tories getting 400+ seats

Commons spreads from Spreadex sees CON at 400+CON 402-408LAB 145-151LD 21.5-24.5UKIP 0.25-1.25SNP 43-46https://t.co/m9B2DFvQv3 …

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Morris_Dancer

FPT: Betting Post

F1: I was all set to just stick with my No Safety Car bet. But some odds look wrong, so...

Backed Vandoorne to win group C at Ladbrokes (10). It includes Sainz, Kvyat and Grosjean. Kvyat's demoted three places so he and Grosjean start a long way back. Sainz is right behind Vandoorne, both men have 40% DNF rates. I think it's (if they all finish) a two hose race, so 10 is just too long.

Also backed Bottas at 11 each way to win. Strange that he has the longest odds of the top four to win.

Anyway, more rambling and thoughts in the article:

http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/07/hungary-pre-race-2017.html

On-topic: don't remind me. I spurned the chance to hedge 350-399 at 1.7 or so a few hours before 10pm.

Anyway, I've been staring at a screen too long. Time to sod off.

Sean_F

Despite all the pratfalls, the Tories still led 44/36 in the polls on polling day, enough to win a 40 seat majority. Yet, this lead did not materialise on the day. I'm still a bit dumbfounded by it.

bigjohnowls

Remember it well got on Lab over 165

MikeSmithson

Sean_F said:

Despite all the pratfalls, the Tories still led 44/36 in the polls on polling day, enough to win a 40 seat majority. Yet, this lead did not materialise on the day. I'm still a bit dumbfounded by it.

I'm still dumbfounded as well. It wasn't just the polls but all the rumours of what was happening with the postal vote added to the same picture.

As I waited for the exit poll on June 8th I was concerned about my 393 CON seats sell bet.

Sean_F

Even Labour were expecting a hefty defeat , before the Exit Poll, presumably because their own pollster, BMG, had them 13% behind.

Sean_F

MikeSmithson said:

Sean_F said:

Despite all the pratfalls, the Tories still led 44/36 in the polls on polling day, enough to win a 40 seat majority. Yet, this lead did not materialise on the day. I'm still a bit dumbfounded by it.

I'm still dumbfounded as well. It wasn't just the polls but all the rumours of what was happening with the postal vote added to the same picture.

As I waited for the exit poll on June 8th I was concerned about my 393 CON seats sell bet.

My final prediction was 345, and I was very comfortable with that.

another_richard

Sean_F said:

Despite all the pratfalls, the Tories still led 44/36 in the polls on polling day, enough to win a 40 seat majority. Yet, this lead did not materialise on the day. I'm still a bit dumbfounded by it.

With all the focus on the failing of May and the Conservative campaign there's been too little interest in where all the extra Labour voters came from.

I'd like to see the change in votes per constituency between May and June.

IanB2

Sean_F said:

Despite all the pratfalls, the Tories still led 44/36 in the polls on polling day, enough to win a 40 seat majority. Yet, this lead did not materialise on the day. I'm still a bit dumbfounded by it.

Really the word "adjusted" should be inserted in advance of "polls".

another_richard

Sean_F said:

Even Labour were expecting a hefty defeat , before the Exit Poll, presumably because their own pollster, BMG, had them 13% behind.

Plus their GOTV efforts concentrated in the likes of Tooting and Brentford rather than Battersea and Kensington.

another_richard

MikeSmithson said:

Sean_F said:

Despite all the pratfalls, the Tories still led 44/36 in the polls on polling day, enough to win a 40 seat majority. Yet, this lead did not materialise on the day. I'm still a bit dumbfounded by it.

I'm still dumbfounded as well. It wasn't just the polls but all the rumours of what was happening with the postal vote added to the same picture.

As I waited for the exit poll on June 8th I was concerned about my 393 CON seats sell bet.

The postal vote rumours were odd in themselves as both Ealing Acton and Penistone were mentioned here as said to be looking good for the Conservatives.

Now Penistone was a good Conservative performance - perhaps their best in Yorkshire - but Ealing Acton had a huge swing to Labour.

Danny565

Sean_F said:

Even Labour were expecting a hefty defeat , before the Exit Poll, presumably because their own pollster, BMG, had them 13% behind.

The Labour machine's high command thought they were going to lose heavily (I would argue partly because so many of them had spent the past couple of years convinced that Corbyn would be a failure, so they subconsciously were picking out snippets of info which backed up their pre-existing viewpoint). But I'm really not sure the same was true for Labour's activists on the ground, who were actually talking to people rather than just listening to the Westminster media's feedback loop.

Certainly those of us knocking doors in Chester felt very confident we were going to hold the seat by the last few days (as I said here at the time), despite the doom and gloom in the media about Labour's chances.

Sean_F

IanB2 said:

Sean_F said:

Despite all the pratfalls, the Tories still led 44/36 in the polls on polling day, enough to win a 40 seat majority. Yet, this lead did not materialise on the day. I'm still a bit dumbfounded by it.

Really the word "adjusted" should be inserted in advance of "polls".

True, but generally polls need to be adjusted. In almost every election but this, using data weighted by demography alone, has overstated Labour.

stevef

Corbyn gets the accolades but I think its despite Corbyn not because of him. On June 8, a lot of young people voted to end tuition fees, a lot of old people rebelled against May's perceived attack on their pensions and dementia tax, a lot of remainers voted Labour to stop the Tory hard Brexit. The Times/Yougov predicted what would happen a week before polling day so I dont get why so many people still call it a surprise.
And today everyone is expecting Corbyn to be prime minister. Maybe another surprise is on the way.

Ishmael_Z

stevef said:

Corbyn gets the accolades but I think its despite Corbyn not because of him. On June 8, a lot of young people voted to end tuition fees, a lot of old people rebelled against May's perceived attack on their pensions and dementia tax, a lot of remainers voted Labour to stop the Tory hard Brexit. The Times/Yougov predicted what would happen a week before polling day so I dont get why so many people still call it a surprise.
And today everyone is expecting Corbyn to be prime minister. Maybe another surprise is on the way.

I hadn't realised Jezza was favourite for next PM, but he is (9/4 Hill 3/1 Ladbrokes)

ed miliband would have walked it, except he wouldn't because May would not have called the election.

another_richard

Ishmael_Z said:

stevef said:

Corbyn gets the accolades but I think its despite Corbyn not because of him. On June 8, a lot of young people voted to end tuition fees, a lot of old people rebelled against May's perceived attack on their pensions and dementia tax, a lot of remainers voted Labour to stop the Tory hard Brexit. The Times/Yougov predicted what would happen a week before polling day so I dont get why so many people still call it a surprise.
And today everyone is expecting Corbyn to be prime minister. Maybe another surprise is on the way.

I hadn't realised Jezza was favourite for next PM, but he is (9/4 Hill 3/1 Ladbrokes)

ed miliband would have walked it, except he wouldn't because May would not have called the election.

A Labour still led by EdM would have been doing better before the election was called and wouldn't have been hammered in the local elections.

But a Labour led by EdM would have done worse in the general election because they wouldn't have offered change on tuition fees and would have seemed a realistic threat to potential Conservative voters.

Charles

FPT

Balrog said:

Charles said:

Benpointer said:

Dumb question on QE (which I have never really been able to get my head around): Is the £445bn the BoE has created effectively just temporary money, i.e. that will be 'erased' when/if the bonds bought by QE are every re-sold? If not, why not just use it to pay off a chunk of the deficit? Or better still, fund growth through tax cuts and higher spending?

(I said it was a dumb question!)

It's not a dumb question.

At the moment the Bank has "printed money" through QE which it has used to buy bonds from the government. The Treasury does not pay the interest on these bonds (this changed a couple of year ago).

The intention is that when the circumstances permit, the government will raise funds in the normal markets, repay the bonds and the Bank will cancel the "QE money", thus sterilising the intervention.

If the bonds were written off, or sold by the Bank, then effectively you are making the increase in the money supply permanent and non reversible. If you are a monetarist (as most economists are these days) then an increase in the money supply will lead to inflation and a breakdown of price signals in the market which is bad for the economy as a whole. Over the last 10 years this has shown up in the UK as asset price inflation (houses and equities) which may be less noticeable to the man in the street, but is potentially even more harmful than wage inflation in the long run.

What I can't understand is why, given that conditions are so historically unusual, pension providers can't be allowed to use a higher discount rate. If they use current rates then most of them are going to look as if they are bust, even though much of the money they have to pay out isn't due for decades, over which period interest rates will recover. All that the current approach does is give the impression that pensions are massively underfunded now, forcing companies to make big contributions and hence reducing money for investment, and then when interest rates / gilt yields rise, suddenly all the pension funds will be in surplus and start taking payment holidays. I'm sure half the problem at BHS was this - being forced to crystallise liabilities at the worst point.

But then I'm only an engineer so I probably have it all wrong!

They can be allowed to use a higher rate, but it requires politicians to get involved. (Politicians allow greedy companies to cut pension contributions! Fight for your pensions!)

The issue is that the pension trustees have a fiducary responsibility to the pensioners, the regulators have an obligation to force companies to fill the deficits, the companies have little room for manoeuvre, the unions will fight for the maximum benefit for their members regardless of systemic damage and the politicians don;t want to touch the issue

Stark_Dawning

Thinking back we were all terribly naive. Theresa May - an infinitely forgettable politician whose only points of interest were to have once worn garish shoes and report to the Tories a disparaging remark that their opponents were making about them. Why did we think such a mediocre figure could even have soared to such dizzying heights?

surbiton

Spread betting in every election since 2010 inclusive hugely underestimated Labour seats.

surbiton

Stark_Dawning said:

Thinking back we were all terribly naive. Theresa May - an infinitely forgettable politician whose only points of interest were to have once worn garish shoes and report to the Tories a disparaging remark that their opponents were making about them. Why did we think such a mediocre figure could even have soared to such dizzying heights?

Because you wanted to ?

foxinsoxuk

Stark_Dawning said:

Thinking back we were all terribly naive. Theresa May - an infinitely forgettable politician whose only points of interest were to have once worn garish shoes and report to the Tories a disparaging remark that their opponents were making about them. Why did we think such a mediocre figure could even have soared to such dizzying heights?

I think that you will struggle to find a positive word from me about her ever, but I did point this out a year ago consistently.

I don't do well on Tory leaders markets, because the mind of Tory backbenchers is so alien to me.

isam

surbiton said:

Spread betting in every election since 2010 inclusive hugely underestimated Labour seats.

Every election!

isam

Stark_Dawning said:

Thinking back we were all terribly naive. Theresa May - an infinitely forgettable politician whose only points of interest were to have once worn garish shoes and report to the Tories a disparaging remark that their opponents were making about them. Why did we think such a mediocre figure could even have soared to such dizzying heights?

Because people trusted the polling of the over engaged

surbiton

another_richard said:

MikeSmithson said:

Sean_F said:

Despite all the pratfalls, the Tories still led 44/36 in the polls on polling day, enough to win a 40 seat majority. Yet, this lead did not materialise on the day. I'm still a bit dumbfounded by it.

I'm still dumbfounded as well. It wasn't just the polls but all the rumours of what was happening with the postal vote added to the same picture.

As I waited for the exit poll on June 8th I was concerned about my 393 CON seats sell bet.

The postal vote rumours were odd in themselves as both Ealing Acton and Penistone were mentioned here as said to be looking good for the Conservatives.

Now Penistone was a good Conservative performance - perhaps their best in Yorkshire - but Ealing Acton had a huge swing to Labour.

Maybe the Tories did well in PV's in Ealing. It's the actual vote on the day [ in London as a whole ] that stumped them.

surbiton

another_richard said:

Sean_F said:

Even Labour were expecting a hefty defeat , before the Exit Poll, presumably because their own pollster, BMG, had them 13% behind.

Plus their GOTV efforts concentrated in the likes of Tooting and Brentford rather than Battersea and Kensington.

They did move to Battersea in the afternoon big time.

surbiton

bigjohnowls said:

Remember it well got on Lab over 165

Got your money back from 2015 ?

ThomasNashe

Painful to think of the amount of money those buying Tory seats must have lost Haven't seen anyone own up here?

TheScreamingEagles

surbiton said:

Spread betting in every election since 2010 inclusive hugely underestimated Labour seats.

Nonsense.

Labour's mid-price on the morning of the 2015 general election was 265 seats, overestimating Labour by 33 seats.

surbiton

isam said:

surbiton said:

Spread betting in every election since 2010 inclusive hugely underestimated Labour seats.

Every election!

Maybe, not in 2015. But, in 2010, it was 210 - 215. In 2017,it was 201 - 206 in the end.

TheScreamingEagles

On topic, the warning signs were there, Mrs May's Carthaginian collapse in leading ratings during the campaign, turning a 69% lead over Corbyn in leader ratings at the start of the campaign into a 3% deficit by the final weekend.

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/06/04/the-polling-that-should-worry-mrs-may-and-all-tories/

surbiton

ThomasNashe said:

Painful to think of the amount of money those buying Tory seats must have lost Haven't seen anyone own up here?

As usual with betting, nobody lost !

isam

surbiton said:

isam said:

surbiton said:

Spread betting in every election since 2010 inclusive hugely underestimated Labour seats.

Every election!

Maybe, not in 2015. But, in 2010, it was 210 - 215. In 2017,it was 201 - 206 in the end.

Every election since 2010 is two elections. Hardly a reliable trend!

ThomasNashe

stevef said:

Corbyn gets the accolades but I think its despite Corbyn not because of him. On June 8, a lot of young people voted to end tuition fees, a lot of old people rebelled against May's perceived attack on their pensions and dementia tax, a lot of remainers voted Labour to stop the Tory hard Brexit. The Times/Yougov predicted what would happen a week before polling day so I dont get why so many people still call it a surprise.
And today everyone is expecting Corbyn to be prime minister. Maybe another surprise is on the way.

I can't abide Corbyn, but you can't deny his anti-establishment, man of the people shtick did appeal to many voters whom Ed Miliband would never have attracted.

surbiton

isam said:

surbiton said:

isam said:

surbiton said:

Spread betting in every election since 2010 inclusive hugely underestimated Labour seats.

Every election!

Maybe, not in 2015. But, in 2010, it was 210 - 215. In 2017,it was 201 - 206 in the end.

Every election since 2010 is two elections. Hardly a reliable trend!

3. I wrote since 2010 inclusive.

isam

surbiton said:

ThomasNashe said:

Painful to think of the amount of money those buying Tory seats must have lost Haven't seen anyone own up here?

As usual with betting, nobody lost !

I did!

isam

surbiton said:

isam said:

surbiton said:

isam said:

surbiton said:

Spread betting in every election since 2010 inclusive hugely underestimated Labour seats.

Every election!

Maybe, not in 2015. But, in 2010, it was 210 - 215. In 2017,it was 201 - 206 in the end.

Every election since 2010 is two elections. Hardly a reliable trend!

3. I wrote since 2010 inclusive.

Fair dos. Strange way of putting it

surbiton

TheScreamingEagles said:

surbiton said:

Spread betting in every election since 2010 inclusive hugely underestimated Labour seats.

Nonsense.

Labour's mid-price on the morning of the 2015 general election was 265 seats, overestimating Labour by 33 seats.

True. All of those 33 came from Scotland.

ThomasNashe

isam said:

surbiton said:

isam said:

surbiton said:

isam said:

surbiton said:

Spread betting in every election since 2010 inclusive hugely underestimated Labour seats.

Every election!

Maybe, not in 2015. But, in 2010, it was 210 - 215. In 2017,it was 201 - 206 in the end.

Every election since 2010 is two elections. Hardly a reliable trend!

3. I wrote since 2010 inclusive.

Fair dos. Strange way of putting it

Even Meatloaf wouldn't describe two out of three as 'every'.

Danny565

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, the warning signs were there, Mrs May's Carthaginian collapse in leading ratings during the campaign, turning a 69% lead over Corbyn in leader ratings at the start of the campaign into a 3% deficit by the final weekend.

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/06/04/the-polling-that-should-worry-mrs-may-and-all-tories/

For the first 8 months, people were just projecting Thatcher's personality onto May, hence her high approval ratings.

As soon as they got a proper look at her during the election campaign (the first time since becoming PM that May was in situations where she and her media management weren't able to carefully prepare soundbite clips), people's illusions of what kind of leader May was crumbled quickly.

TheScreamingEagles

surbiton said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

surbiton said:

Spread betting in every election since 2010 inclusive hugely underestimated Labour seats.

Nonsense.

Labour's mid-price on the morning of the 2015 general election was 265 seats, overestimating Labour by 33 seats.

True. All of those 33 came from Scotland.

Nope, the SNP mid price was 46.5 seats.

TheScreamingEagles

Danny565 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, the warning signs were there, Mrs May's Carthaginian collapse in leading ratings during the campaign, turning a 69% lead over Corbyn in leader ratings at the start of the campaign into a 3% deficit by the final weekend.

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/06/04/the-polling-that-should-worry-mrs-may-and-all-tories/

For the first 8 months, people were just projecting Thatcher's personality onto May, hence her high approval ratings.

As soon as they got a proper look at her during the election campaign, people's illusions of what kind of leader May was crumbled quickly.

Well since the July 13th 2016 some of us did warn that Mrs May was more Gordon Brown than Margaret Thatcher.

Independent_Colin

I will own up as I lost a packet on Tories gaining seats like Brentford & Isleworth and Tooting.

But I also made up for the losses by heavily laying the Lib Dems on the Betfair 28.5 seats and 37.5 seats markets. So swings and roundabouts.

FrankBooth

I haven't followed the Charlie Gard case but it's not often you see Melanie Phillips giving both barrels to the American right.

http://www.melaniephillips.com/cruel-ignorant-campaign/

Were we, in this instance, the victims of American cultural imperialism?

Independent_Colin

The American right have a real issue with NHS death panels. They just hate single payer or as they call it socialized healthcare. The trouble is some alt-right Brits egg them on saying the same thing.

See tw*tter idiot Paul Watson @PrisonPlanet for example.

FrankBooth

Danny565 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, the warning signs were there, Mrs May's Carthaginian collapse in leading ratings during the campaign, turning a 69% lead over Corbyn in leader ratings at the start of the campaign into a 3% deficit by the final weekend.

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/06/04/the-polling-that-should-worry-mrs-may-and-all-tories/

For the first 8 months, people were just projecting Thatcher's personality onto May, hence her high approval ratings.

As soon as they got a proper look at her during the election campaign (the first time since becoming PM that May was in situations where she and her media management weren't able to carefully prepare soundbite clips), people's illusions of what kind of leader May was crumbled quickly.

She's certainly shown herself to be a hopeless campaigner but it's too early at the moment to tell whether she's a useless Prime minister.

foxinsoxuk

surbiton said:

ThomasNashe said:

Painful to think of the amount of money those buying Tory seats must have lost Haven't seen anyone own up here?

As usual with betting, nobody lost !

I lost on Tory seats, but gave up on SPIN markets after 2015. What saved my book was the reverse ferret on the exit poll, I believed it and backed it heavily at evens so came out slightly in the black.

TheScreamingEagles

Independent_Colin said:

The American right have a real issue with NHS death panels. They just hate single payer or as they call it socialized healthcare. The trouble is some alt-right Brits egg them on saying the same thing.

See tw*tter idiot Paul Watson @PrisonPlanet for example.

He made himself look like a right idiot the other day when he tried to argue mass immigration was a recent phenomenon.

He was at a loss to explain how a bunch of Europeans ended up in America a few hundred years ago.

isam

TheScreamingEagles said:

Independent_Colin said:

The American right have a real issue with NHS death panels. They just hate single payer or as they call it socialized healthcare. The trouble is some alt-right Brits egg them on saying the same thing.

See tw*tter idiot Paul Watson @PrisonPlanet for example.

He made himself look like a right idiot the other day when he tried to argue mass immigration was a recent phenomenon.

He was at a loss to explain how a bunch of Europeans ended up in America a few hundred years ago.

Another example of it being horrendous for the natives!

Roger

More appropriate to the last thread but Jonathan Freedland eloquently examines why Trump is disgusting and repulsive


"...............As Bill Clinton once put it, “People the world over have always been more impressed by the power of our example than by the example of our power.”

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jul/28/trump-disgust-president-repulsive-behaviour

williamglenn

British lack of co-ordination on Brexit ‘beggars belief’

Commissioner for Agriculture Phil Hogan: UK still has to come to terms with negotiating mandate

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/british-lack-of-co-ordination-on-brexit-beggars-belief-1.3171292

stodge

Danny565 said:

For the first 8 months, people were just projecting Thatcher's personality onto May, hence her high approval ratings.

No, they were projecting all their hopes and expectations on to her and she was helping by trying to be all things to all people and that's why she came up short when push came to shove.

Was she a LEAVE supporter or a closet REMAIN fan ?

Was she a laissez-faire Thatcherite or a Heseltine-style interventionist ? Some of what she said could have come from Heath, other parts from Thatcher. She tried to woo Labour by being the friend of the workers while at the same time trying to suggest she was pro-business.

Instead of trying to be everything, the truth was she was nothing. I still don't know what her core beliefs and principals are - she does tactics, I don't see any evidence of a strategy.

Allan

Independent_Colin said:

I will own up as I lost a packet on Tories gaining seats like Brentford & Isleworth and Tooting.

But I also made up for the losses by heavily laying the Lib Dems on the Betfair 28.5 seats and 37.5 seats markets. So swings and roundabouts.

Yes thank goodness for the Lib Dems. Reduced my losses to £20.

foxinsoxuk

FrankBooth said:

Danny565 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, the warning signs were there, Mrs May's Carthaginian collapse in leading ratings during the campaign, turning a 69% lead over Corbyn in leader ratings at the start of the campaign into a 3% deficit by the final weekend.

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/06/04/the-polling-that-should-worry-mrs-may-and-all-tories/

For the first 8 months, people were just projecting Thatcher's personality onto May, hence her high approval ratings.

As soon as they got a proper look at her during the election campaign (the first time since becoming PM that May was in situations where she and her media management weren't able to carefully prepare soundbite clips), people's illusions of what kind of leader May was crumbled quickly.

She's certainly shown herself to be a hopeless campaigner but it's too early at the moment to tell whether she's a useless Prime minister.

Hasn't she managed that? What has she achieved in the last year apart from a lost majority?

williamglenn

foxinsoxuk said:

Hasn't she managed that? What has she achieved in the last year apart from a lost majority?

Killed Boris's chances of winning the leadership? That appointment seems to have had the desired effect.

Sean_F

stodge said:

Danny565 said:

For the first 8 months, people were just projecting Thatcher's personality onto May, hence her high approval ratings.

No, they were projecting all their hopes and expectations on to her and she was helping by trying to be all things to all people and that's why she came up short when push came to shove.

Was she a LEAVE supporter or a closet REMAIN fan ?

Was she a laissez-faire Thatcherite or a Heseltine-style interventionist ? Some of what she said could have come from Heath, other parts from Thatcher. She tried to woo Labour by being the friend of the workers while at the same time trying to suggest she was pro-business.

Instead of trying to be everything, the truth was she was nothing. I still don't know what her core beliefs and principals are - she does tactics, I don't see any evidence of a strategy.

I don't see tactics either.

nunuone

Whilst the GOP base is much less diverse than the Dem one, there are of course subtlety.
https://mobile.twitter.com/henryolsenEPPC/status/891323182350819328

Drutt

Got on LD under 28.5, but also at under 11.5. I was out of the LAB/CON total seats market, and the spreads too. Lost on all those 'surely CON will gain here' seats and was saved only by the thought that LAB would probably hang on in London, because of age / ethnicity demographics.

One betting slip full of what I thought would end up good value LAB losers in and around the M25 turned a betting horror show into an extremely labour-intensive way of making a 7% profit in two months.

nunuone

This is absolutely astonishing. Yes American politics is increasing tribal but.......

https://mobile.twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/891334360401661957

Jonathan

There is still not enough distance between now and polling day to behold the full splendour and majesty of Theresa May's cosmic fuck up.

Benpointer

Jonathan said:

There is still not enough distance between now and polling day to behold the full splendour and majesty of Theresa May's cosmic fuck up.

Indeed, this one will grow and grow as the consequences play out.

Mortimer

Jonathan said:

There is still not enough distance between now and polling day to behold the full splendour and majesty of Theresa May's cosmic fuck up.

Amazing how Corbyn won, eh?

Oh, wait...

Jonathan

Mortimer said:

Jonathan said:

There is still not enough distance between now and polling day to behold the full splendour and majesty of Theresa May's cosmic fuck up.

Amazing how Corbyn won, eh?

Oh, wait...

Clutch those straws ever tighter Morty.

williamglenn

https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/891400187910008837

TheScreamingEagles

Mortimer said:

Jonathan said:

There is still not enough distance between now and polling day to behold the full splendour and majesty of Theresa May's cosmic fuck up.

Amazing how Corbyn won, eh?

Oh, wait...

You don't think losing Cameron's majority/making a net seat loss against the terrorist sympathising wants to make Diane Abbot Home Secretary Corbyn was a fuck up?

It's a view.

Fenster

Jonathan said:

There is still not enough distance between now and polling day to behold the full splendour and majesty of Theresa May's cosmic fuck up.

I don't think calling the GE was a fuck up, given the IndyRef threat and the polls. It was the campaign that was a fuck up.

Good politics. Bad leadership.

Basically, she got found out.

TheScreamingEagles

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/891400187910008837

Interesting that Boris hasn't got the balls to attack Hammond directly and that he's having to use outriders.

Has Brexit castrated Boris?

williamglenn

TheScreamingEagles said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/891400187910008837

Interesting that Boris hasn't got the balls to attack Hammond directly and that he's having to use outriders.

Has Brexit castrated Boris?

Are you auditioning to be Hammond's Scaramucci?

FrancisUrquhart

How many friggin months to find this out!!!!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/07/29/police-investigate-potential-collusion-witnesses-ted-heath-sex/

TheScreamingEagles

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/891400187910008837

Interesting that Boris hasn't got the balls to attack Hammond directly and that he's having to use outriders.

Has Brexit castrated Boris?

Are you auditioning to be Hammond's Scaramucci?

I'm far too subtle and nuanced to be anyone's Scaramucci.

Benpointer

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/891400187910008837

Article contains the ludicrous words: “Instead of being felt immediately, the benefits of Brexit would be phased in over a three-year period…”

Hammond's plan was quite canny from a Tory point of view. Negotiate Brexit, then get the next election over before the transition period ends (and before the Brexshit actually hits the fan).

Mortimer

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mortimer said:

Jonathan said:

There is still not enough distance between now and polling day to behold the full splendour and majesty of Theresa May's cosmic fuck up.

Amazing how Corbyn won, eh?

Oh, wait...

You don't think losing Cameron's majority/making a net seat loss against the terrorist sympathising wants to make Diane Abbot Home Secretary Corbyn was a fuck up?

It's a view.

United the right and ruined the chances of a break up of this country?

Some things are more important than majorities.

Mortimer

Jonathan said:

Mortimer said:

Jonathan said:

There is still not enough distance between now and polling day to behold the full splendour and majesty of Theresa May's cosmic fuck up.

Amazing how Corbyn won, eh?

Oh, wait...

Clutch those straws ever tighter Morty.

Not at all - it was a shame that she didn't get a majority.

But I think the extra 2 years will prove to be useful. 2020 would be an awful time in have an election.

Benpointer

Mortimer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mortimer said:

Jonathan said:

There is still not enough distance between now and polling day to behold the full splendour and majesty of Theresa May's cosmic fuck up.

Amazing how Corbyn won, eh?

Oh, wait...

You don't think losing Cameron's majority/making a net seat loss against the terrorist sympathising wants to make Diane Abbot Home Secretary Corbyn was a fuck up?

It's a view.

United the right and ruined the chances of a break up of this country?

Some things are more important than majorities.

I think the fact that you're arguing with TSE kind of disproves the "united the right" bit lol!

TheScreamingEagles

Mortimer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mortimer said:

Jonathan said:

There is still not enough distance between now and polling day to behold the full splendour and majesty of Theresa May's cosmic fuck up.

Amazing how Corbyn won, eh?

Oh, wait...

You don't think losing Cameron's majority/making a net seat loss against the terrorist sympathising wants to make Diane Abbot Home Secretary Corbyn was a fuck up?

It's a view.

United the right and ruined the chances of a break up of this country?

Some things are more important than majorities.

She's united the left more than she's united the right. I mean she's united the Tory party into thinking she's shite.

Tories up circa 5%, Labour up circa 10%

Who knew banging on about grammar schools and the EU would cost the Tories seats.

Mortimer

Benpointer said:

Mortimer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mortimer said:

Jonathan said:

There is still not enough distance between now and polling day to behold the full splendour and majesty of Theresa May's cosmic fuck up.

Amazing how Corbyn won, eh?

Oh, wait...

You don't think losing Cameron's majority/making a net seat loss against the terrorist sympathising wants to make Diane Abbot Home Secretary Corbyn was a fuck up?

It's a view.

United the right and ruined the chances of a break up of this country?

Some things are more important than majorities.

I think the fact that you're arguing with TSE kind of disproves the "united the right" bit lol!

I'm not arguing with him - it's not worth the effort.

Cameron alienated much of the right to the extent that they wouldn't vote for him.

TheScreamingEagles

Mortimer said:

Benpointer said:

Mortimer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mortimer said:

Jonathan said:

There is still not enough distance between now and polling day to behold the full splendour and majesty of Theresa May's cosmic fuck up.

Amazing how Corbyn won, eh?

Oh, wait...

You don't think losing Cameron's majority/making a net seat loss against the terrorist sympathising wants to make Diane Abbot Home Secretary Corbyn was a fuck up?

It's a view.

United the right and ruined the chances of a break up of this country?

Some things are more important than majorities.

I think the fact that you're arguing with TSE kind of disproves the "united the right" bit lol!

I'm not arguing with him - it's not worth the effort.

Cameron alienated much of the right to the extent that they wouldn't vote for him.

Yet the country voted for him to become the only Tory win a majority in the last quarter of a century.

There's a lesson in that for you.

AndyJS

Stark_Dawning said:

Thinking back we were all terribly naive. Theresa May - an infinitely forgettable politician whose only points of interest were to have once worn garish shoes and report to the Tories a disparaging remark that their opponents were making about them. Why did we think such a mediocre figure could even have soared to such dizzying heights?

She got the highest Tory share for 34 years.

Benpointer

Mortimer said:

Benpointer said:

Mortimer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mortimer said:

Jonathan said:

There is still not enough distance between now and polling day to behold the full splendour and majesty of Theresa May's cosmic fuck up.

Amazing how Corbyn won, eh?

Oh, wait...

You don't think losing Cameron's majority/making a net seat loss against the terrorist sympathising wants to make Diane Abbot Home Secretary Corbyn was a fuck up?

It's a view.

United the right and ruined the chances of a break up of this country?

Some things are more important than majorities.

I think the fact that you're arguing with TSE kind of disproves the "united the right" bit lol!

I'm not arguing with him - it's not worth the effort.

Cameron alienated much of the right to the extent that they wouldn't vote for him.

Most of the tories I know would love to have him back right now!

Mortimer

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mortimer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mortimer said:

Jonathan said:

There is still not enough distance between now and polling day to behold the full splendour and majesty of Theresa May's cosmic fuck up.

Amazing how Corbyn won, eh?

Oh, wait...

You don't think losing Cameron's majority/making a net seat loss against the terrorist sympathising wants to make Diane Abbot Home Secretary Corbyn was a fuck up?

It's a view.

United the right and ruined the chances of a break up of this country?

Some things are more important than majorities.

She's united the left more than she's united the right. I mean she's united the Tory party into thinking she's shite.

Tories up circa 5%, Labour up circa 10%

Who knew banging on about grammar schools and the EU would cost the Tories seats.

Clearing up the Posh Boys' mess was never going to be easy.

Benpointer

Mortimer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mortimer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mortimer said:

Jonathan said:

There is still not enough distance between now and polling day to behold the full splendour and majesty of Theresa May's cosmic fuck up.

Amazing how Corbyn won, eh?

Oh, wait...

You don't think losing Cameron's majority/making a net seat loss against the terrorist sympathising wants to make Diane Abbot Home Secretary Corbyn was a fuck up?

It's a view.

United the right and ruined the chances of a break up of this country?

Some things are more important than majorities.

She's united the left more than she's united the right. I mean she's united the Tory party into thinking she's shite.

Tories up circa 5%, Labour up circa 10%

Who knew banging on about grammar schools and the EU would cost the Tories seats.

Clearing up the Posh Boys' mess was never going to be easy.

Good point. Clearly it's way beyond the vicar's daughter. Make way for Jezza!

Mortimer

Benpointer said:

Mortimer said:

Benpointer said:

Mortimer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mortimer said:

Jonathan said:

There is still not enough distance between now and polling day to behold the full splendour and majesty of Theresa May's cosmic fuck up.

Amazing how Corbyn won, eh?

Oh, wait...

You don't think losing Cameron's majority/making a net seat loss against the terrorist sympathising wants to make Diane Abbot Home Secretary Corbyn was a fuck up?

It's a view.

United the right and ruined the chances of a break up of this country?

Some things are more important than majorities.

I think the fact that you're arguing with TSE kind of disproves the "united the right" bit lol!

I'm not arguing with him - it's not worth the effort.

Cameron alienated much of the right to the extent that they wouldn't vote for him.

Most of the tories I know would love to have him back right now!

He never managed 40%. I honestly think he would have lost to Corbyn in 2017.

Benpointer

Mortimer said:

Benpointer said:

Mortimer said:

Benpointer said:

Mortimer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mortimer said:

Jonathan said:

There is still not enough distance between now and polling day to behold the full splendour and majesty of Theresa May's cosmic fuck up.

Amazing how Corbyn won, eh?

Oh, wait...

You don't think losing Cameron's majority/making a net seat loss against the terrorist sympathising wants to make Diane Abbot Home Secretary Corbyn was a fuck up?

It's a view.

United the right and ruined the chances of a break up of this country?

Some things are more important than majorities.

I think the fact that you're arguing with TSE kind of disproves the "united the right" bit lol!

I'm not arguing with him - it's not worth the effort.

Cameron alienated much of the right to the extent that they wouldn't vote for him.

Most of the tories I know would love to have him back right now!

He never managed 40%. I honestly think he would have lost to Corbyn in 2017.

Not a chance! - much as I would have wished it. For one thing he'd never have called an unnecessary election.

TGOHF

"Top city economist slams inept Chancellor" would have been a more accurate headline.

He really is the source of all disharmony through his continual daft wet nonsense.

Worst thing about the minority govt is the poor mans Alaistair Darling carrying on as CoTE.

Mortimer

Benpointer said:

Mortimer said:

Benpointer said:

Mortimer said:

Benpointer said:

Mortimer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mortimer said:

Jonathan said:

There is still not enough distance between now and polling day to behold the full splendour and majesty of Theresa May's cosmic fuck up.

Amazing how Corbyn won, eh?

Oh, wait...

You don't think losing Cameron's majority/making a net seat loss against the terrorist sympathising wants to make Diane Abbot Home Secretary Corbyn was a fuck up?

It's a view.

United the right and ruined the chances of a break up of this country?

Some things are more important than majorities.

I think the fact that you're arguing with TSE kind of disproves the "united the right" bit lol!

I'm not arguing with him - it's not worth the effort.

Cameron alienated much of the right to the extent that they wouldn't vote for him.

Most of the tories I know would love to have him back right now!

He never managed 40%. I honestly think he would have lost to Corbyn in 2017.

Not a chance! - much as I would have wished it. For one thing he'd never have called an election.

Probably true - but remember he even trailed Corbyn's Labour in an opinion poll...

TheScreamingEagles

Mortimer said:

Benpointer said:

Mortimer said:

Benpointer said:

Mortimer said:

Benpointer said:

Mortimer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mortimer said:

Jonathan said:

There is still not enough distance between now and polling day to behold the full splendour and majesty of Theresa May's cosmic fuck up.

Amazing how Corbyn won, eh?

Oh, wait...

You don't think losing Cameron's majority/making a net seat loss against the terrorist sympathising wants to make Diane Abbot Home Secretary Corbyn was a fuck up?

It's a view.

United the right and ruined the chances of a break up of this country?

Some things are more important than majorities.

I think the fact that you're arguing with TSE kind of disproves the "united the right" bit lol!

I'm not arguing with him - it's not worth the effort.

Cameron alienated much of the right to the extent that they wouldn't vote for him.

Most of the tories I know would love to have him back right now!

He never managed 40%. I honestly think he would have lost to Corbyn in 2017.

Not a chance! - much as I would have wished it. For one thing he'd never have called an election.

Probably true - but remember he even trailed Corbyn's Labour in an opinion poll...

But never trailed Corbyn on the best PM/leader ratings question.

Richard_Tyndall

FrancisUrquhart said:

How many friggin months to find this out!!!!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/07/29/police-investigate-potential-collusion-witnesses-ted-heath-sex/

As a politician I couldn't stand Heath. As a human being I find him someone I feel a lot of warmth towards. A very private man who clearly had a lot of trouble talking about his emotions and his private life, someone who, unfortunately has become a prime target for smear and innuendo because he chose to keep his public and private lives separate.

I would defy anyone with a heart to watch the rare interview he gave when he talked about his long lost love and not feel a wave of empathy for a man clearly very uncomfortable on such ground.

TheScreamingEagles

Another Leaver chimes in

https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/891409382361231360

TGOHF

TheScreamingEagles said:

Another Leaver chimes in

https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/891409382361231360

Madness to delay beyond the next GE..

Sean_F

Mortimer said:

Benpointer said:

Mortimer said:

Benpointer said:

Mortimer said:

Benpointer said:

Mortimer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mortimer said:

Jonathan said:

There is still not enough distance between now and polling day to behold the full splendour and majesty of Theresa May's cosmic fuck up.

Amazing how Corbyn won, eh?

Oh, wait...

You don't think losing Cameron's majority/making a net seat loss against the terrorist sympathising wants to make Diane Abbot Home Secretary Corbyn was a fuck up?

It's a view.

United the right and ruined the chances of a break up of this country?

Some things are more important than majorities.

I think the fact that you're arguing with TSE kind of disproves the "united the right" bit lol!

I'm not arguing with him - it's not worth the effort.

Cameron alienated much of the right to the extent that they wouldn't vote for him.

Most of the tories I know would love to have him back right now!

He never managed 40%. I honestly think he would have lost to Corbyn in 2017.

Not a chance! - much as I would have wished it. For one thing he'd never have called an election.

Probably true - but remember he even trailed Corbyn's Labour in an opinion poll...

I'm sure Cameron would not have run such an inept campaign as May did. Given that a swing of 0.5% would have given the Conservatives a majority, it's a fair assumption he'd have won 326+ seats.

But the decisions that he took, on issues like student fees, or the triple lock, have come back to haunt the Conservatives.

Benpointer

TheScreamingEagles said:

Another Leaver chimes in

https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/891409382361231360

I suppose at least the argument has moved on from whether we need a transition period to the length of transition.

Step by step we will end up with a glorious fudge that sees us effectively still in the EU but with less clout.

And Farage will probably come back for a brief but ultimately pointless encore like Napoleon from Elba...

And in 10 years time we'll all scratch our heads and say wtf was that Brexit nonsense all about?!

Benpointer

TGOHF said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Another Leaver chimes in

https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/891409382361231360

Madness to delay beyond the next GE..

Au contraire - as I said earlier: Hammond's plan was quite canny from a Tory point of view. Negotiate Brexit, then get the next election over before the transition period ends (and before the Brexshit actually hits the fan).

TGOHF

Benpointer said:

TGOHF said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Another Leaver chimes in

https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/891409382361231360

Madness to delay beyond the next GE..

Au contraire - as I said earlier: Hammond's plan was quite canny from a Tory point of view. Negotiate Brexit, then get the next election over before the transition period ends (and before the Brexshit actually hits the fan).

Next up some bright spark will be suggesting the U.K. can't do trade deals until after transition.. only a matter of time.

Benpointer

Sean_F said:

Mortimer said:

Benpointer said:

Mortimer said:

Benpointer said:

Mortimer said:

Benpointer said:

Mortimer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mortimer said:

Jonathan said:

There is still not enough distance between now and polling day to behold the full splendour and majesty of Theresa May's cosmic fuck up.

Amazing how Corbyn won, eh?

Oh, wait...

You don't think losing Cameron's majority/making a net seat loss against the terrorist sympathising wants to make Diane Abbot Home Secretary Corbyn was a fuck up?

It's a view.

United the right and ruined the chances of a break up of this country?

Some things are more important than majorities.

I think the fact that you're arguing with TSE kind of disproves the "united the right" bit lol!

I'm not arguing with him - it's not worth the effort.

Cameron alienated much of the right to the extent that they wouldn't vote for him.

Most of the tories I know would love to have him back right now!

He never managed 40%. I honestly think he would have lost to Corbyn in 2017.

Not a chance! - much as I would have wished it. For one thing he'd never have called an election.

Probably true - but remember he even trailed Corbyn's Labour in an opinion poll...

I'm sure Cameron would not have run such an inept campaign as May did. Given that a swing of 0.5% would have given the Conservatives a majority, it's a fair assumption he'd have won 326+ seats.

But the decisions that he took, on issues like student fees, or the triple lock, have come back to haunt the Conservatives.

The biggest fuck-up he made was to call a referendum - that will cause the country more damage than Suez.

Sean_F

Benpointer said:

Sean_F said:

Mortimer said:

Benpointer said:

Mortimer said:

Benpointer said:

Mortimer said:

Benpointer said:

Mortimer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mortimer said:

Jonathan said:

There is still not enough distance between now and polling day to behold the full splendour and majesty of Theresa May's cosmic fuck up.

Amazing how Corbyn won, eh?

Oh, wait...

You don't think losing Cameron's majority/making a net seat loss against the terrorist sympathising wants to make Diane Abbot Home Secretary Corbyn was a fuck up?

It's a view.

United the right and ruined the chances of a break up of this country?

Some things are more important than majorities.

I think the fact that you're arguing with TSE kind of disproves the "united the right" bit lol!

I'm not arguing with him - it's not worth the effort.

Cameron alienated much of the right to the extent that they wouldn't vote for him.

Most of the tories I know would love to have him back right now!

He never managed 40%. I honestly think he would have lost to Corbyn in 2017.

Not a chance! - much as I would have wished it. For one thing he'd never have called an election.

Probably true - but remember he even trailed Corbyn's Labour in an opinion poll...

I'm sure Cameron would not have run such an inept campaign as May did. Given that a swing of 0.5% would have given the Conservatives a majority, it's a fair assumption he'd have won 326+ seats.

But the decisions that he took, on issues like student fees, or the triple lock, have come back to haunt the Conservatives.

The biggest fuck-up he made was to call a referendum - that will cause the country more damage than Suez.

I think the Referendum was his greatest achievement.

Benpointer

TGOHF said:

Benpointer said:

TGOHF said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Another Leaver chimes in

https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/891409382361231360

Madness to delay beyond the next GE..

Au contraire - as I said earlier: Hammond's plan was quite canny from a Tory point of view. Negotiate Brexit, then get the next election over before the transition period ends (and before the Brexshit actually hits the fan).

Next up some bright spark will be suggesting the U.K. can't do trade deals until after transition.. only a matter of time.

Don't worry TGOHF, transition ain't ever gonna end - the tories are just softening you up gently!

Benpointer

Sean_F said:

Benpointer said:

Sean_F said:

Mortimer said:

Benpointer said:

Mortimer said:

Benpointer said:

Mortimer said:

Benpointer said:

Mortimer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mortimer said:

Jonathan said:

There is still not enough distance between now and polling day to behold the full splendour and majesty of Theresa May's cosmic fuck up.

Amazing how Corbyn won, eh?

Oh, wait...

You don't think losing Cameron's majority/making a net seat loss against the terrorist sympathising wants to make Diane Abbot Home Secretary Corbyn was a fuck up?

It's a view.

United the right and ruined the chances of a break up of this country?

Some things are more important than majorities.

I think the fact that you're arguing with TSE kind of disproves the "united the right" bit lol!

I'm not arguing with him - it's not worth the effort.

Cameron alienated much of the right to the extent that they wouldn't vote for him.

Most of the tories I know would love to have him back right now!

He never managed 40%. I honestly think he would have lost to Corbyn in 2017.

Not a chance! - much as I would have wished it. For one thing he'd never have called an election.

Probably true - but remember he even trailed Corbyn's Labour in an opinion poll...

I'm sure Cameron would not have run such an inept campaign as May did. Given that a swing of 0.5% would have given the Conservatives a majority, it's a fair assumption he'd have won 326+ seats.

But the decisions that he took, on issues like student fees, or the triple lock, have come back to haunt the Conservatives.

The biggest fuck-up he made was to call a referendum - that will cause the country more damage than Suez.

I think the Referendum was his greatest achievement.

I'm not sure he'd agree with you!

nunuone

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/891400187910008837

Interesting that Boris hasn't got the balls to attack Hammond directly and that he's having to use outriders.

Has Brexit castrated Boris?

Are you auditioning to be Hammond's Scaramucci?

I don't think Boris would try to suck his own co**, too many blond pubes......

foxinsoxuk

TheScreamingEagles said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/891400187910008837

Interesting that Boris hasn't got the balls to attack Hammond directly and that he's having to use outriders.

Has Brexit castrated Boris?

Boris seems to be the holdout against a 3 year transition. Looks like tactics to win the swivel eyed vote to me.

Not that it is on offer, of course...

foxinsoxuk

nunuone said:

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/891400187910008837

Interesting that Boris hasn't got the balls to attack Hammond directly and that he's having to use outriders.

Has Brexit castrated Boris?

Are you auditioning to be Hammond's Scaramucci?

I don't think Boris would try to suck his own co**, too many blond pubes......

Also, he knows where its been!

TGOHF

Benpointer said:

TGOHF said:

Benpointer said:

TGOHF said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Another Leaver chimes in

https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/891409382361231360

Madness to delay beyond the next GE..

Au contraire - as I said earlier: Hammond's plan was quite canny from a Tory point of view. Negotiate Brexit, then get the next election over before the transition period ends (and before the Brexshit actually hits the fan).

Next up some bright spark will be suggesting the U.K. can't do trade deals until after transition.. only a matter of time.

Don't worry TGOHF, transition ain't ever gonna end - the tories are just softening you up gently!

Keep on dreaming ... we are out .

GIN1138

williamglenn said:

British lack of co-ordination on Brexit ‘beggars belief’

Commissioner for Agriculture Phil Hogan: UK still has to come to terms with negotiating mandate

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/british-lack-of-co-ordination-on-brexit-beggars-belief-1.3171292

Well he would say that wouldn't he?

I love how REAMINERS are taking everything that comes out of the EU as the gospel truth lol!