politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Thirteen Saturdays ago the money was going on TMay’s Tories getting 400+ seats
Commons spreads from Spreadex sees CON at 400+CON 402-408LAB 145-151LD 21.5-24.5UKIP 0.25-1.25SNP 43-46https://t.co/m9B2DFvQv3 …
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F1: I was all set to just stick with my No Safety Car bet. But some odds look wrong, so...
Backed Vandoorne to win group C at Ladbrokes (10). It includes Sainz, Kvyat and Grosjean. Kvyat's demoted three places so he and Grosjean start a long way back. Sainz is right behind Vandoorne, both men have 40% DNF rates. I think it's (if they all finish) a two hose race, so 10 is just too long.
Also backed Bottas at 11 each way to win. Strange that he has the longest odds of the top four to win.
Anyway, more rambling and thoughts in the article:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/07/hungary-pre-race-2017.html
On-topic: don't remind me. I spurned the chance to hedge 350-399 at 1.7 or so a few hours before 10pm.
Anyway, I've been staring at a screen too long. Time to sod off.
As I waited for the exit poll on June 8th I was concerned about my 393 CON seats sell bet.
I'd like to see the change in votes per constituency between May and June.
Now Penistone was a good Conservative performance - perhaps their best in Yorkshire - but Ealing Acton had a huge swing to Labour.
Certainly those of us knocking doors in Chester felt very confident we were going to hold the seat by the last few days (as I said here at the time), despite the doom and gloom in the media about Labour's chances.
And today everyone is expecting Corbyn to be prime minister. Maybe another surprise is on the way.
ed miliband would have walked it, except he wouldn't because May would not have called the election.
But a Labour led by EdM would have done worse in the general election because they wouldn't have offered change on tuition fees and would have seemed a realistic threat to potential Conservative voters.
The issue is that the pension trustees have a fiducary responsibility to the pensioners, the regulators have an obligation to force companies to fill the deficits, the companies have little room for manoeuvre, the unions will fight for the maximum benefit for their members regardless of systemic damage and the politicians don;t want to touch the issue
I don't do well on Tory leaders markets, because the mind of Tory backbenchers is so alien to me.
Labour's mid-price on the morning of the 2015 general election was 265 seats, overestimating Labour by 33 seats.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/06/04/the-polling-that-should-worry-mrs-may-and-all-tories/
As soon as they got a proper look at her during the election campaign (the first time since becoming PM that May was in situations where she and her media management weren't able to carefully prepare soundbite clips), people's illusions of what kind of leader May was crumbled quickly.
But I also made up for the losses by heavily laying the Lib Dems on the Betfair 28.5 seats and 37.5 seats markets. So swings and roundabouts.
http://www.melaniephillips.com/cruel-ignorant-campaign/
Were we, in this instance, the victims of American cultural imperialism?
See tw*tter idiot Paul Watson @PrisonPlanet for example.
He was at a loss to explain how a bunch of Europeans ended up in America a few hundred years ago.
"...............As Bill Clinton once put it, “People the world over have always been more impressed by the power of our example than by the example of our power.”
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jul/28/trump-disgust-president-repulsive-behaviour
Commissioner for Agriculture Phil Hogan: UK still has to come to terms with negotiating mandate
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/british-lack-of-co-ordination-on-brexit-beggars-belief-1.3171292
Was she a LEAVE supporter or a closet REMAIN fan ?
Was she a laissez-faire Thatcherite or a Heseltine-style interventionist ? Some of what she said could have come from Heath, other parts from Thatcher. She tried to woo Labour by being the friend of the workers while at the same time trying to suggest she was pro-business.
Instead of trying to be everything, the truth was she was nothing. I still don't know what her core beliefs and principals are - she does tactics, I don't see any evidence of a strategy.
https://mobile.twitter.com/henryolsenEPPC/status/891323182350819328
One betting slip full of what I thought would end up good value LAB losers in and around the M25 turned a betting horror show into an extremely labour-intensive way of making a 7% profit in two months.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/891334360401661957
Oh, wait...
It's a view.
Good politics. Bad leadership.
Basically, she got found out.
Has Brexit castrated Boris?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/07/29/police-investigate-potential-collusion-witnesses-ted-heath-sex/
Hammond's plan was quite canny from a Tory point of view. Negotiate Brexit, then get the next election over before the transition period ends (and before the Brexshit actually hits the fan).
Some things are more important than majorities.
But I think the extra 2 years will prove to be useful. 2020 would be an awful time in have an election.
Tories up circa 5%, Labour up circa 10%
Who knew banging on about grammar schools and the EU would cost the Tories seats.
Cameron alienated much of the right to the extent that they wouldn't vote for him.
There's a lesson in that for you.
He really is the source of all disharmony through his continual daft wet nonsense.
Worst thing about the minority govt is the poor mans Alaistair Darling carrying on as CoTE.
I would defy anyone with a heart to watch the rare interview he gave when he talked about his long lost love and not feel a wave of empathy for a man clearly very uncomfortable on such ground.
https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/891409382361231360
But the decisions that he took, on issues like student fees, or the triple lock, have come back to haunt the Conservatives.
Step by step we will end up with a glorious fudge that sees us effectively still in the EU but with less clout.
And Farage will probably come back for a brief but ultimately pointless encore like Napoleon from Elba...
And in 10 years time we'll all scratch our heads and say wtf was that Brexit nonsense all about?!
Not that it is on offer, of course...
I love how REAMINERS are taking everything that comes out of the EU as the gospel truth lol!