Must confess to being a bit of a Rachel Reeves man, personally. And Stella Creasey...
The few members of the business community who have heard of Reeves loathe her after the attacks she made on them over the past year. The woman has no grasp of reality.
Some of us pointed out in 2010 that the public were ahead of the politicians on this. But the unnamed adviser is being a bit complacent. The cuts have not finished biting yet, and there's plenty of time for the public's mood to turn.
Top marks, however, for the picture at the top of the page. If you read no further, you're not missing much. The only other noteworthy thing I spotted was this:
"Earlier in the week I was talking to one of David Cameron’s advisers. “Labour’s biggest mistake was the way they misjudged the mood of the voters on the cuts,” he said. “Basically, the public were ahead of the politicians on this one. They knew after the crash we were in for hard times. But Ed Miliband thought when they finally arrived, people would recoil. Instead, they’ve just said 'we don’t like it, but we know there’s not really any alternative'.” "
Some of us pointed out in 2010 that the public were ahead of the politicians on this. But the unnamed adviser is being a bit complacent. The cuts have not finished biting yet, and there's plenty of time for the public's mood to turn.
People get message fatigue though. We've had 3 years of 'evil bad cuts' nonstop, and after a while that simply doesn't go in anymore.. even more so when people start thinking 'hmmm i'm not actually doing so badly' anyway, which given the current polling, they are.
'hmmm i'm not actually doing so badly' anyway, which given the current polling, they are.
One economist I read recently said real incomes will start to rise next year. Couple that with a tax cut for the low paid and the government is really in business.
Must confess to being a bit of a Rachel Reeves man, personally. And Stella Creasey...
The few members of the business community who have heard of Reeves loathe her after the attacks she made on them over the past year. The woman has no grasp of reality.
Top marks, however, for the picture at the top of the page. If you read no further, you're not missing much. The only other noteworthy thing I spotted was this:
"Earlier in the week I was talking to one of David Cameron’s advisers. “Labour’s biggest mistake was the way they misjudged the mood of the voters on the cuts,” he said. “Basically, the public were ahead of the politicians on this one. They knew after the crash we were in for hard times. But Ed Miliband thought when they finally arrived, people would recoil. Instead, they’ve just said 'we don’t like it, but we know there’s not really any alternative'.” "
Some of us pointed out in 2010 that the public were ahead of the politicians on this. But the unnamed adviser is being a bit complacent. The cuts have not finished biting yet, and there's plenty of time for the public's mood to turn.
People get message fatigue though. We've had 3 years of 'evil bad cuts' nonstop, and after a while that simply doesn't go in anymore.. even more so when people start thinking 'hmmm i'm not actually doing so badly' anyway, which given the current polling, they are.
I felt this very strongly with Tony in about 1995/96 - it was endless carping and moaning and nit-picking. I recall hearing his voice and just thinking - SHUT UP.
Then he actually found something constructive to say and I started to listen again but it took a while. He was a master of this stuff and still annoyed me enough to remember it over a decade later. EdM doesn't have that luxury of talent.
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges P.Toynbee: "I have a pretty good notion of what Miliband would like to do, if freed of the need to win all kinds of voters". Pesky voters...
Interesting that none of the usual suspects comment on the fact the Tories held all 3 council by-election seats they were defending last night. Turnout may have been low but there is a discernible change in the narrative. How long until we get the first "outlier" which displays a Tory lead in the polls?
Must confess to being a bit of a Rachel Reeves man, personally. And Stella Creasey...
The few members of the business community who have heard of Reeves loathe her after the attacks she made on them over the past year. The woman has no grasp of reality.
"The answer – and you won’t like this – are stunts. In fact I’ve said this before – Ed Miliband doesn’t need more speeches, he needs interventions. Interventions are somewhat different in that they don’t contain any policy detail that people can get their teeth into. But they make people sit up and take notice. He could do a Tony Blair: making a big ideologically symbolic move such as ditching Clause 4. The party wasn’t going to implement Clause 4 anyway, but the move was played as a way to signal its new business-friendly attitude.
Cameron, instead, hugged huskies and hoodies. He rode around in bicycles and embraced homosexuals – he needed to signal that he was a modernising Conservative. Of course, he didn’t manage to detoxify the brand enough to win the election outright, but he grabbed attention.
The problem is two-fold: First, Ed Miliband’s team hate doing stunts; they think they won’t work and are inauthentic (I think they’re not being imaginative enough). The second problem is that the intervention they have chosen – changing Labour’s relationship with the unions for e.g. – is only of interest to Labour members. And people aren’t sure how it relates to the economic agenda.
At this stage the Labour party doesn’t need more policy, it actually needs imaginative interventions to show what Ed Miliband is about. The two are not the same... >>
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges P.Toynbee: "I have a pretty good notion of what Miliband would like to do, if freed of the need to win all kinds of voters". Pesky voters...
That's precisely the sort of thing she used to write about Brown. Either she is incapable of learning from experience, or she knows the target audience she is writing for - just as Dan Hodges.
According to Reuters, Miliband's attack theme will be
"They're out of touch. You're out of pocket."
Can't recall seeing that being posted here. Is it old news?
It's a good pithy slogan. Will Ed Miliband show the discipline to repeat it ad nauseam? I doubt it.
I think the bigger problem is that voters already accept both parts of the slogan, but don't necessarily believe that the two Eds have any better ideas. Thus, it's addressing the wrong bit of the target.
Interesting that none of the usual suspects comment on the fact the Tories held all 3 council by-election seats they were defending last night. Turnout may have been low but there is a discernible change in the narrative. How long until we get the first "outlier" which displays a Tory lead in the polls?
I noticed a certain *just held on* tone, and Populus within 3pts is *within margin of error* from a certain site host.
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 2h CON holds Hungerford by election with much reduced majority over LDs CON 810 LD 751 LAB 86 UPP 28 Con maj 59 - was 235 in 2011
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 3h Oddschecker chart showing nobody betting on CON to retain 3-way marginal of Watford at GE2015 pic.twitter.com/02DVSky395
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 3h The Tories might be closer with Populus today but they need to be eating into the LAB share. See chart pic.twitter.com/JCOWCRJFo0
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 4h All the changes in today's Populus online poll are within margin of error. LAB remains solid with firm in the 38-40 area
Interesting that none of the usual suspects comment on the fact the Tories held all 3 council by-election seats they were defending last night. Turnout may have been low but there is a discernible change in the narrative. How long until we get the first "outlier" which displays a Tory lead in the polls?
Agreed - in the same way both YG and POPULUS polls today have been studiously ignored.
@RichardNabavi There is that, but Labour have the chance to develop some policies to fill that gap. As I said a few days ago, Labour need to campaign on themes which are of extreme relevance to the public, given how low the public's confidence is in politicians as a whole and Labour in particular.
This slogan seems to recognise this, though it's a bit too general for my liking. But it can be fleshed out more later.
I think the bigger problem is that voters already accept both parts of the slogan...
The polling shows that a substantial percentage the public still quite rightly blame Nick Palmer's mob for wrecking the economy and causing the need for cuts slowing down growth in spending. So the response to hearing that slogan is "yes, and we remember why".
Interesting that none of the usual suspects comment on the fact the Tories held all 3 council by-election seats they were defending last night. Turnout may have been low but there is a discernible change in the narrative. How long until we get the first "outlier" which displays a Tory lead in the polls?
The Conservatives may have held their 3 seats but their vote share was down on the 2011/2012 results in all 4 seats yesterday . Conservative support still going down so not much of a discernible change in their favour .
Interesting that none of the usual suspects comment on the fact the Tories held all 3 council by-election seats they were defending last night. Turnout may have been low but there is a discernible change in the narrative. How long until we get the first "outlier" which displays a Tory lead in the polls?
You have also studiously ignored that in Hungerford there was massive swing against the Tories. The governing party meme won't work here since the swing was to the Lib Dems. In fact, the evidence in the last few months shows, in straight fights between the Tories and Lib Dems, the Yellows do quite well.
"Leaning heavily on a stick but with his characteristic wit intact, Andrew Marr has returned to live performance with a crisp dissection of the Scottish independence debate and a boast that he had “known Alex Salmond when he was thin”....
Throughout an hour-long discussion, Marr, born in Glasgow, emphasised his deep Scottish roots, touching on aspects of the current independence debate that troubled him, notably a “very strong” anti-Englishness” which occasionally broke through in Scotland. His interviewer, Gavin Hewitt, raised the memory of Nigel Farage, the UKIP leader, who in May was barricaded in an Edinburgh pub and subjected to anti-English chanting.
“If you go back into the origins of the SNP, Anglophobia was as well entrenched then as it is now,” said Marr. “I don’t think it can become particularly serious most of the time but it can become serious and toxic.” http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/scotland/article3844877.ece
That slogan also won't work if Osborne bungs some tax cuts in as a sweetener..
I'm not sure more tax cuts for those earning over £150k is a good idea...
I'm sure the 2014 and the 2015 budget will be pretty interesting...
As public sector debt is projected to still be rising as a proportion of GDP in 2014 and 2015 there wont be a heck of a lot of room for manoeuvre in those budgets.
Mark Wallace @wallaceme Interesting to see via @BBCMarkDenten that in NE council by-elections this year, Labour in 1st place, Tories 2nd, UKIP 3rd, Lib Dems 4th
Mark Denten @BBCMarkDenten Just over 23,000 votes have been cast in the regions council by elections so far this year...10,014 of them to labour...
Followed by other parties 4,810,Conservative 4,085 Ukip 1897,Lib dems 1,750,Green 382 and BNP 146
I hope our galloping guru Hunsman doesn't have too many followers on here? After his brief moment in the sun yesterday the market's going up again. He's definitely a couple of olives short of a pizza
Interesting that none of the usual suspects comment on the fact the Tories held all 3 council by-election seats they were defending last night. Turnout may have been low but there is a discernible change in the narrative. How long until we get the first "outlier" which displays a Tory lead in the polls?
Agreed - in the same way both YG and POPULUS polls today have been studiously ignored.
I hope you’re not implying that the general sour tone wrt +ve poll moves and complete lack of any threads regarding Andy Burnham’s leadership attacks, Chris Bryan’s melt down and recent local council success are connected in anyway…! – why shame on you.
"My own misery-guts view is that the 2015 general election has already happened. We just don’t know the result yet. Elections do not take place on the day of the vote. That’s just when the counting happens. The election of 2010 happened when Gordon Brown succeeded Tony Blair. The 1997 election happened on Black Wednesday in 1992. The 1979 election happened in the winter of 1978. That does not mean people always decide on that day. It means that when they do cast politics a fleeting glance that moment will supply their reasoning. A lot of people may, right now, say that their vote is undecided but that doesn’t mean the information on which they will base their decision isn’t already in...
"My own misery-guts view is that the 2015 general election has already happened. We just don’t know the result yet. Elections do not take place on the day of the vote. That’s just when the counting happens. The election of 2010 happened when Gordon Brown succeeded Tony Blair. The 1997 election happened on Black Wednesday in 1992. The 1979 election happened in the winter of 1978. That does not mean people always decide on that day. It means that when they do cast politics a fleeting glance that moment will supply their reasoning. A lot of people may, right now, say that their vote is undecided but that doesn’t mean the information on which they will base their decision isn’t already in...
Interesting that none of the usual suspects comment on the fact the Tories held all 3 council by-election seats they were defending last night. Turnout may have been low but there is a discernible change in the narrative. How long until we get the first "outlier" which displays a Tory lead in the polls?
The Conservatives may have held their 3 seats but their vote share was down on the 2011/2012 results in all 4 seats yesterday . Conservative support still going down so not much of a discernible change in their favour .
In 1995 we were losing council by-elections hand over fist. None of last night's wards were exactly rock solid beforehand. If we had lost any you and others would have been quick to jump on it.
"My own misery-guts view is that the 2015 general election has already happened. We just don’t know the result yet. Elections do not take place on the day of the vote. That’s just when the counting happens. The election of 2010 happened when Gordon Brown succeeded Tony Blair. The 1997 election happened on Black Wednesday in 1992. The 1979 election happened in the winter of 1978. That does not mean people always decide on that day. It means that when they do cast politics a fleeting glance that moment will supply their reasoning. A lot of people may, right now, say that their vote is undecided but that doesn’t mean the information on which they will base their decision isn’t already in...
The [probable - if any] main error of Rod's use of the Monte Carlo method would have been in his choice of error model for the uncertainties in PM approval and two-party share this far out from the election.
I use a SD of 2.5 on the adjusted PM approval rating [100*(PM app/2P vote)-50], which is slightly larger than L&N use in their model.
I take on all your points, and have indeed stated them already at various times in discussing this model.
There is no election in the immediate future, so the PM approval and model's output should be treated with as much caution as current opinion polls (we do treat them with caution, don't we?).
However, I suspect the model is closer to the truth of what will happen in 2015.
I have always believed and endorse what Lebo & Norpoth said in 2005:- "In between elections, when pollsters ask about vote intentions and government approval, it is comparatively easy for a respondent to report dissatisfaction with the government and threaten to vote for another party. Yet, as the election approaches, the vote intention question becomes more closely aligned with the eventual vote itself, and, as it does so, the threat of voting for another party may be harder to follow through on for identifiers of the governing party. Thus, as the election approaches, people who identify with the governing party will find themselves unable to seriously consider voting for another party and will announce a vote intention in line with a government of which they disapprove. With an election further off in time, these voters are much more comfortable making the empty threat of voting for a party for which they would never actually cast a vote."
PM approval is an accurate proxy variable for what voters really intend to do at the next election, irrespective of the Voting Intention they tell the pollsters...
I think the bigger problem is that voters already accept both parts of the slogan...
The polling shows that a substantial percentage the public still quite rightly blame Nick Palmer's mob for wrecking the economy and causing the need for cuts slowing down growth in spending. So the response to hearing that slogan is "yes, and we remember why".
A substantial proportion of the public would blame Labour whoever's fault it is/was . They are the conservative core voters . Similarly a substantial proportion would blame the Conservatives for anything - they are the Labour core voters . In the same way these core voters would not accept that the party they support can do anything wrong whatsover despite it being patently obvious to the majority of non partisan voters . To give just one example look at the attempts of Conservative partisans to rename Black Wednesday to White Wednesday .
That's unfair - taking on Murdoch and other media interests wasnt an easy target.
It was an incredibly easy target, it just required following the Guardian (and BBC, of course) in hypocritically kicking the wounded beast, which had no defences.
Interesting that none of the usual suspects comment on the fact the Tories held all 3 council by-election seats they were defending last night. Turnout may have been low but there is a discernible change in the narrative. How long until we get the first "outlier" which displays a Tory lead in the polls?
The Conservatives may have held their 3 seats but their vote share was down on the 2011/2012 results in all 4 seats yesterday . Conservative support still going down so not much of a discernible change in their favour .
In 1995 we were losing council by-elections hand over fist. None of last night's wards were exactly rock solid beforehand. If we had lost any you and others would have been quick to jump on it.
No one is saying that 2013 is like 1995 . 1995 led to a Labour landslide in 1997 . 2013 may or may not lead to a Labour win in 2015 , noone is saying it will lead to a Labour landslide .
He was the first political leader to call for an independent inquiry into newspaper practices and regulation. His intervention on this point had a significant impact. It was discussed a lot at the time (some people agreed with him others didnt but it's not right to pretend it didnt happen).
Come on, Richard, the implications of what he did were obvious at the time.
Yes, but that's not what I mean (FWIW, I think Ed M isn't lacking courage in that sense).
I mean that, politically, it was easy in the sense of getting lots of short-term kudos, at least from the party and from the Guardian-reading classes, without having to face up to any difficult decisions.
Similarly, banker-bashing is easy, but not necessarily wise if you hope one day to run the one major economy for which financial services are such a key sector.
He was the first political leader to call for an independent inquiry into newspaper practices and regulation. His intervention on this point had a significant impact. It was discussed a lot at the time (some people agreed with him others didnt but it's not right to pretend it didnt happen).
"Remember Ed Miliband's "laser-like focus on welfare spending"? Or Ed Balls' sudden conversion to "iron discipline" on the budget? How about Miliband's repeated insistence that his party wouldn't commit to reversing any cut in spending unless it was "fully funded".
I do, if only slightly, but it appears the Labour leader has completely forgotten them during the course of the summer holidays. In the heat, he's taken off his welfare cap and donned flip-flops instead.
The New Statesman reports that Miliband will pledge to reverse the so-called "bedroom tax" in the approach to the 2015 election - scrapping a welfare reform that saves over £450m a year. Apparently, this is an element of One Nation Labour - a nation united under debt.
He was the first political leader to call for an independent inquiry into newspaper practices and regulation. His intervention on this point had a significant impact. It was discussed a lot at the time (some people agreed with him others didnt but it's not right to pretend it didnt happen).
He was the first political leader to call for an independent inquiry into newspaper practices and regulation. His intervention on this point had a significant impact. It was discussed a lot at the time (some people agreed with him others didnt but it's not right to pretend it didnt happen).
I beg to differ - Hiding behind the Guardian and Tom Watson until public opinion was known, then calling for yet another inquiry at no cost to himself politically, is the very definition of an ‘easy-target imho.
He was the first political leader to call for an independent inquiry into newspaper practices and regulation. His intervention on this point had a significant impact. It was discussed a lot at the time (some people agreed with him others didnt but it's not right to pretend it didnt happen).
Neil fancies Ed
He's out of my league, Sunil.
Apparently that's what Brian Coleman says about you.
He was the first political leader to call for an independent inquiry into newspaper practices and regulation. His intervention on this point had a significant impact. It was discussed a lot at the time (some people agreed with him others didnt but it's not right to pretend it didnt happen).
Neil fancies Ed
He's out of my league, Sunil.
Apparently that's what Brian Coleman says about you.
Making middle lane 'hogging' an offence is daft. For a start its hightly subjective and ,more importantly probably safer than constant lane changing imo
Making middle lane 'hogging' an offence is daft. For a start its hightly subjective and ,more importantly probably safer than constant lane changing imo
Depends if you're doing 40mph and holding up a stream or cars as far as the eye can see. Being done for 'careless driving' takes the whole situation in to account; they're not black-and-white offences.
Making middle lane 'hogging' an offence is daft. For a start its hightly subjective and ,more importantly probably safer than constant lane changing imo
Sorry, you're wrong. Hogging the middle lane causes accidents. If you're unable to read the road sufficiently well to execute a simple manoeuvre, you shouldn't be on the motorway.
Making middle lane 'hogging' an offence is daft. For a start its hightly subjective and ,more importantly probably safer than constant lane changing imo
It's daft while the speed limit remains at 70mph. "Middle lane hoggers" in my experience tend to drive at exactly that speed. How can they be illegally obstructing the lane if it's breaking the law to overtake them?
Making middle lane 'hogging' an offence is daft. For a start its hightly subjective and ,more importantly probably safer than constant lane changing imo
It's daft while the speed limit remains at 70mph. "Middle lane hoggers" in my experience tend to drive at exactly that speed. How can they be illegally obstructing the lane if it's breaking the law to overtake them?
Making middle lane 'hogging' an offence is daft. For a start its hightly subjective and ,more importantly probably safer than constant lane changing imo
It's daft while the speed limit remains at 70mph. "Middle lane hoggers" in my experience tend to drive at exactly that speed. How can they be illegally obstructing the lane if it's breaking the law to overtake them?
Making middle lane 'hogging' an offence is daft. For a start its hightly subjective and ,more importantly probably safer than constant lane changing imo
It's daft while the speed limit remains at 70mph. "Middle lane hoggers" in my experience tend to drive at exactly that speed. How can they be illegally obstructing the lane if it's breaking the law to overtake them?
Your experience of ‘middle lane hoggers’ is very different from mine then – they normally travel at well under the speed limit, despite an empty inside lane, forcing those coming up behind to move from there to the outside lane and back again, so as not to overtake on the inside. For lorries doing the same it's a bloddy nightmare.
On saying that, I think it a rather daft proposal and very difficult to impose fairly.
Good Evening. A word of warning into the shell like of Cammo comforters who think that Merkel and Cammo are in tune on the EU:
@AlbertoNardelli Interpretation of Merkel's words on EU powers in UK press very different to interpretation (based on Chancellery briefings) in German press.
Mark Wallace @wallaceme Interesting to see via @BBCMarkDenten that in NE council by-elections this year, Labour in 1st place, Tories 2nd, UKIP 3rd, Lib Dems 4th
Mark Denten @BBCMarkDenten Just over 23,000 votes have been cast in the regions council by elections so far this year...10,014 of them to labour...
Followed by other parties 4,810,Conservative 4,085 Ukip 1897,Lib dems 1,750,Green 382 and BNP 146
Surprising to see the Greens so close to the LD numbers.
Good Evening. A word of warning into the shell like of Cammo comforters who think that Merkel and Cammo are in tune on the EU:
@AlbertoNardelli Interpretation of Merkel's words on EU powers in UK press very different to interpretation (based on Chancellery briefings) in German press.
Making middle lane 'hogging' an offence is daft. For a start its hightly subjective and ,more importantly probably safer than constant lane changing imo
It's daft while the speed limit remains at 70mph. "Middle lane hoggers" in my experience tend to drive at exactly that speed. How can they be illegally obstructing the lane if it's breaking the law to overtake them?
Your experience of ‘middle lane hoggers’ is very different from mine then – they normally travel at well under the speed limit, despite an empty inside lane, forcing those coming up behind to move from there to the outside lane and back again, so as not to overtake on the inside. For lorries doing the same it's a bloddy nightmare.
On saying that, I think it a rather daft proposal and very difficult to impose fairly.
On the subject of motoring, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23717575 Beware of acting on another driver flashing, and using it as a signal to proceed. They may ram your car, and claim whiplash.
... he is trying to get me arrested by the Met Police for "hate crime" against atheists.
Why just against atheists?
He needs a good lawyer.
Indeed. I so hope the Met Police actually come and arrest me for being mean to atheists. The publicity would be priceless, and the comedy value stratospheric.
Sadly, I fear the police will resist his importunings.
Don't write anything rude about Liverpool mind - @OldHolborn has had over a dozen twitter accounts attacked by vile Scouse trolls who tried to get him sacked by his boss, and his wife and posted photos of his children. And sent death threats. Nice.
Dawkins wasn't calling Muslims mentally ill. He noted that there weren't many Muslim Nobel winners compared to their global numbers and made a crass comparison with a single Oxbridge college.
And included Economics Nobel winners so the nit-pickers could have a pop. He then clarified that Muslims had their Englightened Period about 500yrs ago.
He can be an arse and arrogant but much of the outrage was fauxrage.
The response? One atheist is so incensed he is trying to get me arrested by the Met Police for "hate crime" against atheists.
The multiple ironies are utterly delicious.
If you'd written a blog on why, say, Muslims were mentally ill, I think you'd have already been charged with a hate crime
Probably. Though I note Dawkins has been quite conspicuously mean about Muslim culture of late, and still walks the streets.
But it has been quite eye-opening to see the angry, affronted, frothing, spittle-freckled, eye-popping fury from atheists who read my blogpost. I've been called every name there is, and several are trying to get me arrested.
And these are, let us remember, ATHEISTS.
It's fecking hilarious. They remind me of one or two other minority groups who are very easily offended, and very deeply insecure. Yet the comparison, and the irony, entirely escapes the atheists themselves.
I'm sure you would have been really disappointed if no atheists had responded.
It's interesting how the people on High Streets who want to give out flyers about bonkers things - like the dangers of magnetism, quantum dynamics, the virtues of a land value tax, being saved by Jesus - are entirely ignored, but put something up on the internet and people will manage to become irrationally enraged by it.
@SeanT - I'm sure that, when your case comes up, we can put together a bunch of character witnesses willing to testify that it's not just atheists you've insulted.
Making middle lane 'hogging' an offence is daft. For a start its hightly subjective and ,more importantly probably safer than constant lane changing imo
It's daft while the speed limit remains at 70mph. "Middle lane hoggers" in my experience tend to drive at exactly that speed. How can they be illegally obstructing the lane if it's breaking the law to overtake them?
Your experience of ‘middle lane hoggers’ is very different from mine then – they normally travel at well under the speed limit, despite an empty inside lane, forcing those coming up behind to move from there to the outside lane and back again, so as not to overtake on the inside. For lorries doing the same it's a bloddy nightmare.
On saying that, I think it a rather daft proposal and very difficult to impose fairly.
On the subject of motoring, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23717575 Beware of acting on another driver flashing, and using it as a signal to proceed. They may ram your car, and claim whiplash.
Cheers for the heads up GerryM – I’d already caught the article this morning and thought ‘there goes another driving courtesy’ to add to the daily grind…!
Probably. Though I note Dawkins has been quite conspicuously mean about Muslim culture of late, and still walks the streets.
But it has been quite eye-opening to see the angry, affronted, frothing, spittle-freckled, eye-popping fury from atheists who read my blogpost. I've been called every name there is, and several are trying to get me arrested.
And these are, let us remember, ATHEISTS.
It's fecking hilarious. They remind me of one or two other minority groups who are very easily offended, and very deeply insecure. Yet the comparison, and the irony, entirely escapes the atheists themselves.
I don't know if you have ever browsed reddit (the self-proclaimed front page of the internet), but their atheism section was always a sight to behold. So much self-righteous pomposity, it was hard not to laugh.
It's interesting how the people on High Streets who want to give out flyers about bonkers things - like the dangers of magnetism, quantum dynamics, the virtues of a land value tax, being saved by Jesus - are entirely ignored, but put something up on the internet and people will manage to become irrationally enraged by it.
If I'm on the High Street, no doubt I have something I want to do, or places to be. That, and the internet is so much more anonymous.
"Leaning heavily on a stick but with his characteristic wit intact, Andrew Marr has returned to live performance with a crisp dissection of the Scottish independence debate and a boast that he had “known Alex Salmond when he was thin”....
Throughout an hour-long discussion, Marr, born in Glasgow, emphasised his deep Scottish roots, touching on aspects of the current independence debate that troubled him, notably a “very strong” anti-Englishness” which occasionally broke through in Scotland. His interviewer, Gavin Hewitt, raised the memory of Nigel Farage, the UKIP leader, who in May was barricaded in an Edinburgh pub and subjected to anti-English chanting.
“If you go back into the origins of the SNP, Anglophobia was as well entrenched then as it is now,” said Marr. “I don’t think it can become particularly serious most of the time but it can become serious and toxic.” http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/scotland/article3844877.ece
Marr is a fanny , deep Scottish roots "my ar*e, London unionist poodle. I have yet to hear or see any anti - Englishness but perhaps that is because I live in Scotland and don't view it via the Daily Mail.
Good Evening. A word of warning into the shell like of Cammo comforters who think that Merkel and Cammo are in tune on the EU:
@AlbertoNardelli Interpretation of Merkel's words on EU powers in UK press very different to interpretation (based on Chancellery briefings) in German press.
Kippers obviously don't like any measure of success by Cameron in dealing with the EU. One would have thought any success would have suited their aims.
Good Evening. A word of warning into the shell like of Cammo comforters who think that Merkel and Cammo are in tune on the EU:
@AlbertoNardelli Interpretation of Merkel's words on EU powers in UK press very different to interpretation (based on Chancellery briefings) in German press.
Kippers obviously don't like any measure of success by Cameron in dealing with the EU. One would have thought any success would have suited their aims.
Well, we don't live in a fools paradise or a never-never land like some on PB, thats true. The fact that you believe that Cammo is having success in this matter says it all.
Comments
http://www.libdems.org.uk/siteFiles/resources/docs/conference/2013 Autumn/Policy/111 - Fairer Taxes.pdf
One economist I read recently said real incomes will start to rise next year. Couple that with a tax cut for the low paid and the government is really in business.
Then he actually found something constructive to say and I started to listen again but it took a while. He was a master of this stuff and still annoyed me enough to remember it over a decade later. EdM doesn't have that luxury of talent.
P.Toynbee: "I have a pretty good notion of what Miliband would like to do, if freed of the need to win all kinds of voters". Pesky voters...
He simply does not look serious.
"The answer – and you won’t like this – are stunts. In fact I’ve said this before – Ed Miliband doesn’t need more speeches, he needs interventions. Interventions are somewhat different in that they don’t contain any policy detail that people can get their teeth into. But they make people sit up and take notice. He could do a Tony Blair: making a big ideologically symbolic move such as ditching Clause 4. The party wasn’t going to implement Clause 4 anyway, but the move was played as a way to signal its new business-friendly attitude.
Cameron, instead, hugged huskies and hoodies. He rode around in bicycles and embraced homosexuals – he needed to signal that he was a modernising Conservative. Of course, he didn’t manage to detoxify the brand enough to win the election outright, but he grabbed attention.
The problem is two-fold: First, Ed Miliband’s team hate doing stunts; they think they won’t work and are inauthentic (I think they’re not being imaginative enough). The second problem is that the intervention they have chosen – changing Labour’s relationship with the unions for e.g. – is only of interest to Labour members. And people aren’t sure how it relates to the economic agenda.
At this stage the Labour party doesn’t need more policy, it actually needs imaginative interventions to show what Ed Miliband is about. The two are not the same... >>
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 2h
CON holds Hungerford by election with much reduced majority over LDs CON 810 LD 751 LAB 86 UPP 28 Con maj 59 - was 235 in 2011
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 3h
Oddschecker chart showing nobody betting on CON to retain 3-way marginal of Watford at GE2015 pic.twitter.com/02DVSky395
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 3h
The Tories might be closer with Populus today but they need to be eating into the LAB share. See chart pic.twitter.com/JCOWCRJFo0
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 4h
All the changes in today's Populus online poll are within margin of error. LAB remains solid with firm in the 38-40 area
Egg van Dyke - cor blimey guvnor -am out of pocket !
This slogan seems to recognise this, though it's a bit too general for my liking. But it can be fleshed out more later.
Throughout an hour-long discussion, Marr, born in Glasgow, emphasised his deep Scottish roots, touching on aspects of the current independence debate that troubled him, notably a “very strong” anti-Englishness” which occasionally broke through in Scotland. His interviewer, Gavin Hewitt, raised the memory of Nigel Farage, the UKIP leader, who in May was barricaded in an Edinburgh pub and subjected to anti-English chanting.
“If you go back into the origins of the SNP, Anglophobia was as well entrenched then as it is now,” said Marr. “I don’t think it can become particularly serious most of the time but it can become serious and toxic.” http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/scotland/article3844877.ece
Interesting to see via @BBCMarkDenten that in NE council by-elections this year, Labour in 1st place, Tories 2nd, UKIP 3rd, Lib Dems 4th
Mark Denten @BBCMarkDenten
Just over 23,000 votes have been cast in the regions council by elections so far this year...10,014 of them to labour...
Followed by other parties 4,810,Conservative 4,085 Ukip 1897,Lib dems 1,750,Green 382 and BNP 146
“I’m delighted to back the Record’s campaign to make the Scotland-England match a regular fixture once again.
“Wednesday night’s game was a great advert for football, despite the result.
“I’m sure everyone on both sides of the Border would welcome the return of the world’s oldest international match.”
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/bring-back-daily-record-campaign-2173550
"My own misery-guts view is that the 2015 general election has already happened. We just don’t know the result yet. Elections do not take place on the day of the vote. That’s just when the counting happens. The election of 2010 happened when Gordon Brown succeeded Tony Blair. The 1997 election happened on Black Wednesday in 1992. The 1979 election happened in the winter of 1978. That does not mean people always decide on that day. It means that when they do cast politics a fleeting glance that moment will supply their reasoning. A lot of people may, right now, say that their vote is undecided but that doesn’t mean the information on which they will base their decision isn’t already in...
Mr Miliband presents a puzzle that baffles pundits and public. He is the leader who is often cold but sometimes bold. Long periods of drift are punctuated by sudden, effective rapid fire at phone hacking or bankers... http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/philipcollins/article3844110.ece
I take on all your points, and have indeed stated them already at various times in discussing this model.
There is no election in the immediate future, so the PM approval and model's output should be treated with as much caution as current opinion polls (we do treat them with caution, don't we?).
However, I suspect the model is closer to the truth of what will happen in 2015.
I have always believed and endorse what Lebo & Norpoth said in 2005:-
"In between elections, when pollsters ask about vote intentions and government approval, it is comparatively easy for a respondent to report dissatisfaction with the government and threaten to vote for another party. Yet, as the election approaches, the vote intention question becomes more closely aligned with the eventual vote itself, and, as it does so, the threat of voting for another party may be harder to follow through on for identifiers of the governing party. Thus, as the election approaches, people who identify with the governing party will find themselves unable to seriously consider voting for another party and will announce a vote intention in line with a government of which they disapprove. With an election further off in time, these voters are much more comfortable making the empty threat of voting for a party for which they would never actually cast a vote."
PM approval is an accurate proxy variable for what voters really intend to do at the next election, irrespective of the Voting Intention they tell the pollsters...
I mean that, politically, it was easy in the sense of getting lots of short-term kudos, at least from the party and from the Guardian-reading classes, without having to face up to any difficult decisions.
Similarly, banker-bashing is easy, but not necessarily wise if you hope one day to run the one major economy for which financial services are such a key sector.
I do, if only slightly, but it appears the Labour leader has completely forgotten them during the course of the summer holidays. In the heat, he's taken off his welfare cap and donned flip-flops instead.
The New Statesman reports that Miliband will pledge to reverse the so-called "bedroom tax" in the approach to the 2015 election - scrapping a welfare reform that saves over £450m a year. Apparently, this is an element of One Nation Labour - a nation united under debt.
By my count, this is Labour's third position on welfare policy - first they were going to lead a national uprising against the idea of living within our national means. Then they were pushing their own, severely flawed, welfare cap. Now they're trying to win votes by offering expensive giveaways... >> http://conservativehome.blogs.com/leftwatch/2013/08/ed-milibands-back-from-holiday-which-explains-his-welfare-flip-flops.html
Brian is used to the Premier League of Arsenal strikers ... I'm sure he wouldnt lower himself to a mere Sunday league hoofer
THE SITE IS NOT ACCEPTING COMMENTS ABOUT PHONE HACKING IN GENERAL< NOR OPERATION MOTORMAN> NOR ANY OTHER ASSOCIATED ENQUIRY.
THANK YOU
On saying that, I think it a rather daft proposal and very difficult to impose fairly.
The ONS bulletin has a map of England and Wales showing which areas of the country have been most efficient in saving energy.
It shows the heart of the country (and Lancashire) beats cooler than the periphery.
Plato's unheated house even turns the Eastbourne hinterland a darker shade of appropriate blue.
Link: http://bit.ly/1bCrKzx
@AlbertoNardelli
Interpretation of Merkel's words on EU powers in UK press very different to interpretation (based on Chancellery briefings) in German press.
Would have required a visit to the local Registration Office to check for birth data.
He needs a good lawyer.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/20509659@N00/1141508725/
Beware of acting on another driver flashing, and using it as a signal to proceed. They may ram your car, and claim whiplash.
It's on his blog.
Dawkins wasn't calling Muslims mentally ill. He noted that there weren't many Muslim Nobel winners compared to their global numbers and made a crass comparison with a single Oxbridge college.
And included Economics Nobel winners so the nit-pickers could have a pop. He then clarified that Muslims had their Englightened Period about 500yrs ago.
He can be an arse and arrogant but much of the outrage was fauxrage.
It's interesting how the people on High Streets who want to give out flyers about bonkers things - like the dangers of magnetism, quantum dynamics, the virtues of a land value tax, being saved by Jesus - are entirely ignored, but put something up on the internet and people will manage to become irrationally enraged by it.
Today's ICM Wisdom Index has LAB dropping 11% since end June
Con+2, 31
Lab-11, 32
LD+1, 16
UKIP-1, 13