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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Henry G Manson says Ed needs to add grit and a touch of gla
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Henry G Manson says Ed needs to add grit and a touch of glamour in his reshuffle
Ed Miliband’s September reshuffle will be a significant affair and his last chance to form his team in the run up to the election. There is creeping frustration in the leaders’ office with the lack of new ideas among some shadow ministers and there’s a strong sense that an injection of new blood is needed.
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Oh good grief, just scanned the post. Think I'll go and make a cup of coffee or something.
Looking out to see whether Lab has edged up (i.e. both parties since the lead hasn't changed)
One Nation Labour : the Luvvy republic of Primrose hill.
The all polls average is useful for that.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png
There's definitely been movement since after the May locals. Some parties more than others and a fairly obvious correlation.
One Welsh MP.
Nine from northern England.
None from southern England.
No Scots.
It is clear where the British Labour Party is heading, and it is an uncomfortable place. Furrowed brows at Bath Street, Glasgow.
Brilliant!
This is the only sociology student I know. (and well done to your son!)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LVPAP62TvRY
Surely Miliband and Labour have to decide the long-term strategic direction before filling posts? Some appointments may be inconsistent with certain strategies, whilst others may bolster them.
I've got a lot of time for both Reeves and Coaker; both could be good in more visible positions for Labour. A friend of mine is one of Coaker's constituents, and she rates him very highly indeed.
For some reason I've never been able to stand Gloria De Piero for reasons I find hard to fathom - perhaps it's a throwback to her presenting days. In which case it's unfair.
And then she opened her mouth....
Really enjoyed catching up on yesterday's thread on Monty Carlo methods! There are some very bright and well informed posters on here.
I think they should treat the less informed posters-like myself- as they do women golfers at the better courses and give us a small slot say Tuesdays from 10pm till Midnight.
Well, not in 2013, but come October 2014... ?
I think I'd rather study the social history of fine bone china teacups than fill my brain with that particular useless information.
Well, not in 2013, but come October 2014... ?
You mean Murphy isn't quite as obvious about it as wee Dougie I presume. Murphy is about as 'loyal' to little Ed as he's ever been which isn't saying much but hasn't stopped him being Shadow Def Sec until now. What's changed? In a word, Falkirk.
Politics - Tony Benn's family fortune
Charity - The scandal over the Wedgewood Museum
Class - Milk first or not?
Well, if the Falkirk affair results in Ed Miliband sacking Jim Murphy, then the investigative journalism of the Glasgow Herald (which broke the story long before the London press cottoned on) might just end up being a contributing factor in the dissolution of the Union. Who'd've thunk it?
1) Politically reliable and loyal.
2) Good communicators.
3) Can handle the relevant brief (The Alan Johnson problem).
4) Available and willing.
5) Acceptable to the party.
That must make for a very small pool for each post, even amongst several hundred MPs. I wonder if this is why leaders sometimes look towards the Lords as well...
Con 810 LD 751 Lab 86 UPP 28
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Official_Opposition_Shadow_Cabinet_(United_Kingdom)
For what it's worth, few have completely bombed, but there are a lot who have failed to sparkle in my view. Only Chuka Umunna and Ed Balls have really taken the fight to the Conservatives. Andy Burnham remains popular with Labour supporters, though I'm not entirely clear why.
The problems really stem from the top. Yvette Cooper has been far too quiet, Ed Balls has been too hamstrung by his own past (despite his energy) and Ed Miliband has failed to set a consistent lead.
Douglas Alexander has largely sat on his hands, Stephen Twigg has failed to justify his role and Liam Byrne is permanently tarnished by the letter that was the Coalition's greatest gift. Jim Murphy is wasted at Defence - any old Labour hack could shadow that.
If I were reshuffling, I'd move Ed Balls to Health or Education - probably Health. I'd replace him with a woman, not least because George Osborne would struggle to get the tone right against a female opposite number, and given Yvette Cooper has been so quiet shadowing Home, I'd choose Rachel Reeves.
I'd sack Liam Byrne and replace him with Jim Murphy, who would make Iain Duncan Smith very uncomfortable. I'd sack Stephen Twigg and put Andy Burnham shadowing Education.
I expect that this is all impossible for a variety of arcane reasons of internal Labour party politics.
Actually, Ed needs to clear out all those tainted by the last administration and add a healthy dollop of ‘competence’ which at present is sadly lacking.
Mr Twigg's issue is that he was all in favour of free schools/academies when it was Blair's policy - so trying to oppose your own views is rather tricky. I quite like him, and admire the fact that he's not opposing for the sake of it.
If he does go it's a bit of a stretch for it to be over anything other than that though doubtless some excuse would be used. Amusingly wee Dougie is also more than a touch involved in the fun and games over Falkirk and other places, yet the talk was of him replacing Tom Watson. This would be the same Tom Watson who left over Falkirk.
Good to see Lamont stamping her authority all over scottish labour as usual though.
6) Allows for a good balance of regions/sex/other non-merit based criteria
7) Effectively balances the various factions within the party
Additionally (1) should be 'political reliable and loyal unless so powerful they can't be excluded'
Leaving aside the specific merits or otherwise of individuals, there's a dilemma which any party leader faces, of whether to emphasise 'new faces' or 'experience'. Obviously you want some balance between the two, but the dilemma is particularly acute for a leader in Ed M's position, after 13 years of his party being in government and three years after a real drubbing in the polls. The question that he really needs to ask is whether his current team is too tainted with the past, or alternatively looks too naive and inexperienced.
Looking down the current list, it's true that in theory he has plenty of experienced people (Ed Balls, Harriet Harman, Yvette Cooper, Douglas Alexander, Andy Burnham, Jim Murphy, Hilary Benn, Caroline Flint, Stephen Twigg, Liam Byrne, Sadiq Khan), even if some of those weren't seen by the public as particularly big beasts in the last government. Yet the odd thing is that the overall impression we're getting is not one of an experienced team, largely because some of those figures seem to have been unexpectedly quiet in recent months.
It's not clear to me that ditching the more experienced colleagues in favour of new faces is in his interest; the biggest risk to his electoral chances is not looking ready for government.
Sorry Stuart , I did not see that post .
A report on the by election on the Vote-2012 site from a local Conservative activist said that it was a nominations cock up leading to the LD candidate having No Description on the ballot paper . Following this they then decided not to put up any campaign at all . I have no personal knowledge if that is true or not .
An ok suggestion moving Murphy to Work and Pensions. It is going to be a key sphere at IndyRef 2014, where Murphy is one of the few big hitters on the No side. Mind you, so is Defence.
The problem is that neither Alexander nor Murphy can be moved to any of the English domestic portfolios: health, education, transport, justice etc.
By the way, thanks for the wiki link. Without it I'd never have known who the Shadow Secretary of State for Scotland was.
Coaker was a marginal (next door to Nick P) in the 90s. Perkins got back Chesterfield in 2010. So there weren't big safe seats when they were selected.
Reeves got serious competition in Leeds West selection (a local Cllr and an Yvette's aide). Berger's selection was controversial but still in hands of the CLP (she was strongly favoured by the retiring MP).
Jones is usually the one who fixes to parachute others...Miliband Sr and South Shields....Mandy and Hartlepool....
Dugher was a late selection. They left out a local Cllr from the shortlist. The same Cllr left out when Jarvis was selected. I guess they don't rate him much...
Can't recall anything about Gwynne's selection time.
Anyone who suggests that an understanding of such concepts as "hubris" is no training for the modern world of work is simply being silly.
"But, in the spirit of bipartisanship, it has to be said that the Right is guilty of a few cliches, too. See if you recognise any of these badboy Tweets from the extended Addams Family that is the conservative movement.
1. "Spent a lovely day with the women of East Hertfordshire Bridge Club collecting money to build a golf course for the widows of Anglican vicars. #BigSocietyInAction." Tory MPs will occasionally tweet from their constituency to remind us that they don't spend their all time drinking sherry or molesting the hired help – and their missives offer a fascinating insight into the archaic world that they represent. A lot of strawberry picking and renovating old castles..." http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/tobyyoung/100231048/heres-my-list-of-the-best-american-tv-series-it-doesnt-include-the-wire-now-give-me-your-suggestions/#disqus_thread
Well, not in 2013, but come October 2014... ?
maybe not as critical as you say, the Yes campaign isn't exactly firing on all cylinders. If they're all crap it's just a matter of how much.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/tvandradio/10246011/Paul-OGradys-Working-Class-Britain-BBC-One-review.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/10246325/Its-going-wrong-for-Salmond-and-its-all-his-fault.html
" the Better Together campaign has decided to cash in on the First Minister's massive unpopularity by calling next year's vote on independence "Alex Salmond's Referendum".
The pro-Union team reckon that associating the SNP leader's name with that contest can only be good news for those who oppose the Nats"
True Grit = Rooster Cogburn
In the land of the bland the one-eyed man is king.
It would have to be someone who could work well with Alistair Darling. Others would know better than me whether there is such a person.
I don't agree that Jim Murphy and Douglas Alexander are barred from shadowing "English" roles. The people it wouldn't be popular with wouldn't vote Labour in the first place. Douglas Alexander was Secretary of State for Transport for a while.
Did you assemble your list on the basis on yesterday's A level results?
However, there may be a danger in promoting people who knows something about a relevant area: a little knowledge is a dangerous thing (as I probably prove!) Going into a department with preconceived notions can be as dangerous as being led by the nose by the civil servants.
However it can work: Lord Adonis was not in the post for long, but had a real enthusiasm for transport and was making some sound decisions, hamstrung as he was by his colleagues and the upcoming election. His plan for the railways was mostly taken forward by the coalition.
If you do have people with knowledge and enthusiasm for a brief in that brief, then they need to be pragmatists.
Its always embarrassing when labour people talk about the working classes, which is why they rarely do.
New Populus VI figures: Lab 39 (↔); Cons 36 (↑3); LD 10 (↓2); UKIP 8 (↓2); Oth 8 (↑1) Tables popu.lu/s_vi160813
He's got one: "the economy when Ed Balls doesn't want to appear on TV and face the music"
And he's not very good at it.
Angela Merkel hinted she will look quite favorably on Britain's renegotiation proposal.
The biggest risk to Ed Miliband becoming Prime Minister is being forced to resign after losing the election in 2015.
He needs to signal that he intends to lead Labour for the long term, implying but not openly stating that 2020 is his realistic goal.
Bringing on the babes now would be clever tactics. The Shadow Cabinet gets fresh faces and they are allowed to grow old and battle hardened in the public eye.
Even more important, by promoting the key 2010 entries early he would buy their loyalty and help stave off a coup d'état in summer 2015.
What could go wrong. RT @GuidoFawkes: LibDems Running Class on How to Talk About Israel: bit.ly/14F6Z0f
http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/ausland/europa/sommerinterview-merkels-nationale-musik-in-britischen-ohren-12533433.html
De Piero is also a neighbour, and initially was thought a bit glamorous for a very gritty ex-mining seat. She's lived it down and former critics have changed their minds.
I'd add Creasy - one of the few MPs to be popular on both left and right for pitching in during August on issues that are quite tricky to handle well.
Re Dugher - Idon't know him well, but a factor that's easy to overlook is the solidarity of people who stand for the same seat. The winner feels guilty and tries to help the losers: a number of my best political friends are people who I went round the selections with in 1997 - we all got a seat in the end.
Panelbase Aug 08.
Q: On the basis of what you’ve personally seen and heard, which of these people do you think are telling the truth about independence?
———————————————————————————————
Alex Salmond 2.4 (-3)
Nicola Sturgeon 2.4 (-5)
Dennis Canavan 2.3 (-19)
Blair Jenkins 2.2 (-31)
Alistair Darling 2.2 (-27)
Michael Moore 2.0 (-43)
Anas Sarwar 2.0 (-47)
Blair McDougall 1.9 (-62)
I forsee an April summit in Cleethorpes to announce heads of agreement for an Anglo-German Pact.
UK - in our average of polls in mid-April, @UKLabour led the @Conservatives by around 10 points. 30 days ago by 8 points, now by 6.5 points
So Ed needs one traditional shadow cabinet, and another located elsewhere in the quantum multiverse. Either that, or he needs to employ some premiership footballers.
The model might need tweaking closer to the election, but it shows a clear direction of travel.
The reason you can't think of another "Scottish big beast" is that none exist. Well, apart from Darling (already got a job) or Brown (unemployable).
Indeed. Wondering if there's some value in the betting there...
I agree ish with Polly that Miliband has put some interesting "building blocks" of a strategy in place, but it really does need to begin being fleshed out a bit.
How much of that is down to personality, how much to leadership, how much to the perennial struggle for an opposition to be heard (exacerbated by the opposition-within-Government Coalition situation), I'm not sure.
I would love for the No side to keep thinking like that. Unfortunately, I don't think that Darling is that complacent, but Ed Miliband just might be.
Which kinda proves your point.
www.openeurope.org.uk/Content/Documents/EN-vertaling_eindrapportage_DEFINITIEF.pdf
No idea, but very few who would potentially vote conservative, I would have thought.
A report on the by election on the Vote-2012 site from a local Conservative activist said that it was a nominations cock up leading to the LD candidate having No Description on the ballot paper . Following this they then decided not to put up any campaign at all . I have no personal knowledge if that is true or not .
Thanks. That would certainly help to explain how the Lib Dem candidate managed to mislay 96% of the Lib Dem votes in that ward.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monte_Carlo_method
Say what you like about their limitations, but I seriously doubt he has just plucked the figures out of thin air. (And no, I don't think the 0% is accurate either at this stage of the electoral cycle).
Having said that, I am a great cynic when it comes to modelling such complex systems. It is all too easy for a model to be right by accident than by being a proper model. (Think of 'Paul the Octopus' getting predictions correct)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_the_Octopus
Her tenacity is perfect for an opposition coming up to an election. Stick her somewhere she can latch on to one or two key issues to take to the Tories, and let her loose.
Sarwar certainly thinks of himself as a "big beast". But not sure if his fanclub is any larger than the giant panda population.
Given Ed's stance on Europe, is he now going to publicly disagree with Merkel that something should be given back?
Are we going to have the bizarre sight of a major British politician arguing that powers should stay with Europe? We don;t want them! As you were mister bureaucrat!
LOL
Moving on, more generally, I completely agree with your last point, particularly when it comes to social "science", whether economics or politics. The behaviour of people and societies is simply too complex to reduce to a very limited set of inputs and statistical modelling techniques.
Put it this way, I bet a straw poll of the less partisan, more engaged PBers 3 months from the election will outperform any statistical model in accurately predicting seat totals.