"With growing question marks over Jim Murphy’s loyalty to Ed Miliband... "
Ho ho. Considering that SLab is the only functioning part of the Better Together campaign, and that Jim Murphy is one of the very, very few functioning parts of SLab, there is something that Ed Miliband just *cannot* afford to do, and that is sack Jim Murphy.
Well, not in 2013, but come October 2014... ?
maybe not as critical as you say, the Yes campaign isn't exactly firing on all cylinders. If they're all crap it's just a matter of how much.
I would love for the No side to keep thinking like that. Unfortunately, I don't think that Darling is that complacent, but Ed Miliband just might be.
looking at it from the outside Stuart the whole campaign to date has been a pretty miserable affair, neither side has grabbed the imagination nor landed any killer blows. Both sides seem to be using the same Ad agency Dismal Dire and Dreich.
There's 0% chance of a majority Labour government anyway so he's going to have to accommodate Lib Dems in the cabinet.
Incorrect. I've run my sophisticated Bognor Regis simulation 17 billion times, and it puts the probability of a Labour majority at 210%.
So Ed needs one traditional shadow cabinet, and another located elsewhere in the quantum multiverse. Either that, or he needs to employ some premiership footballers.
The model might need tweaking closer to the election, but it shows a clear direction of travel.
That's slightly facile - Monte Carlo methods are a well known and accepted set of statistical devices. Rod was fairly clear yesterday about the limitations of the approach, especially this far out from an election.
Say what you like about their limitations, but I seriously doubt he has just plucked the figures out of thin air. (And no, I don't think the 0% is accurate either at this stage of the electoral cycle).
Having said that, I am a great cynic when it comes to modelling such complex systems. It is all too easy for a model to be right by accident than by being a proper model. (Think of 'Paul the Octopus' getting predictions correct)
Moving on, more generally, I completely agree with your last point, particularly when it comes to social "science", whether economics or politics. The behaviour of people and societies is simply too complex to reduce to a very limited set of inputs and statistical modelling techniques.
Put it this way, I bet a straw poll of the less partisan, more engaged PBers 3 months from the election will outperform any statistical model in accurately predicting seat totals.
I actually doubt that - there are not enough of us to make a good guess. (Actually, that may be provable to a degree. A competition was held on here to predict the US election winner. We know who won that competition, but it would be interesting to see a statistical analysis of how right we were as a crowd.).
@tim - Balls to Health. Please let it be. True, he's useless as Shadow Chancellor, but he'd be even worse there, ranting and raving but still curiously inarticulate. Nice, gentle, caring Dr. Hunt with the emolient bed-side manner wouldn't belive his luck.
Yeah, you wouldn't want Balls putting a catheter in, would you?
@tim - Balls to Health. Please let it be. True, he's useless as Shadow Chancellor, but he'd be even worse there, ranting and raving but still curiously inarticulate. Nice, gentle, caring Dr. Hunt with the emolient bed-side manner wouldn't belive his luck.
Yeah, you wouldn't want Balls putting a catheter in, would you?
By implication that means you would like Mr Hunt to do it. Euugh. Mental bleach.
@tim - You should ALWAYS listen to Uncle John who as your pb carer has only your best interests at heart. When he was appointed, I did try and explain to you this was a rather sensible move (for both NHS and the Tories) and so it has proved. Naturally assisted by that strange Cambridge educated Andy Burnham still in situ, but that's more your problem than mine.
Dunno, and it's still a looming issue for us local govt/HB administering bods, but the slower and more gradual the introduction the decreased risk of it all going pear-shaped. So if the pilots are taking more time, then I ain't complaining.
You are asking thousands of people to, effectively, run an extremely sophisticated election "simulation", which inevitably takes into account many variables, some quantifiable like polling, some less quantifiable but still vital - say, the "mood" of the electorate towards local issues in certain parts of the country, the way candidates might "come across" in debates, the impact of tactical voting.
Then you add them all together to filter out "noise" like partisanship, wishful thinking, stick-any-old-number-in-I'm-not-arsed ness.
I always think "reshuffle's" make surprisingly little difference and in many respects can cause problems.
If a party is on the up it's on the up, if it's on the slide it's on the slide. Moving the deckchairs about is neither here nor' there.
Interesting that Tim has told us he wants Balls moved - Is this an admission that Balls has lost (and Osborne has won) the economic arguement? As this is how is surely how it would be interpreted by the public and the media?
"Poor Ed Miliband, he couldn’t even come out decisively against an egg being chucked at his head. He looked as if his mind had become so addled from his strategy of refusing to say he’ll reverse what his opponents are doing that he’d say that now the egg was in his hair there’s no point in washing it out. Then he’d issue a statement saying that “the real issue is that up and down the country what hard-working chickens are asking is why our economy continues to fail our shells”.
The Conservatives have noticed this attitude from Labour, which may be one reason they’ve grown more confident lately. At the moment they can announce whatever cuts they like, then dare Ed Miliband to say he’d reverse them, which he never does. George Osborne could lean across to him all day long, tasering the Shadow Cabinet, and Ed Balls would appear on Channel 4 News to say: “We will make clear proposals concerning these measures, as soon as we have fully costed them, but until then we’ll continue to wriggle on the floor screaming and will not be pressured into hasty announcements.”
When the Home Office sent vans around London, covered in messages about illegal immigration, Labour responded by saying nothing. Maybe this is a result of the Shadow Cabinet converting to a branch of Buddhism that preaches, “Treat the venom of the Tory with silence, for his hostile energy will then turn against he who delivered it, exploding his van like a million petals, sending you many per cent up in the polls.”
Hehe Mark Steel is a gem. I loved last week's on the racist UKIP bloke..
His language wasn’t in any way insulting, he kept repeating, because “as far as I know there’s no such place as Bongo-Bongo Land”. It may be that he’s missed the point, as most of us were aware he’d made it up. Similarly, if he’d given a speech about how we’re giving too much money to the disabled, saying, “We’re giving millions of pounds a month to Mrs Cripplespaz,” it might not help him if he assured us: “No one could be upset as there’s no such person as Mrs Cripplespaz.”
Or maybe he’s right, in which case he wouldn’t mind if everyone referred to Ukip as a variety of made-up names. On the news Fiona Bruce could say, “It was claimed today that immigration levels are destroying our culture, in a statement by a Buffoon-Packed Smeary Arsewipe Party.” The Times could publish headlines such as “New European Treaty Sure to Be Opposed by Smug Ponced-up Doolally Knobface Party”, and Godfrey Bloom would have no complaints, because the names were all made up.
But the strongest part of Godfrey Bloom’s defence was that his views were those “of the common man”, in particular those held “in the cricket club”. So I suggest he tries talking about Bongo-Bongo Land in a variety of cricket clubs, starting with a team of West Indies veterans, including Curtly Ambrose, Viv Richards and Joel Garner. If you’re not familiar, look them up on Google Images, and I think you’ll agree that should settle it.
"Labour High Command have not one idea of what "Working Class" actually means..to most of them it is someone with a Northern accent..."
I don;t think labour high command is alone. When there was mass industry in Britain, we knew what working class was. Now there isn't the whole concept is much more difficult to pin down.
Good call - Ian Murray MP is of the 2010 intake of new MPs, he’s still relatively young at 36 and his Wiki entry even states he had real life working experience before entering politics. – So which shadow post do you envisage him taking over ?
Hopi Sen @hopisen RT @PopulusPolls: Most noticed news stories this week. pic.twitter.com/rctbow82qr > top news stories in UK: Egypt, followed by "what news?"
Just reading that it struck me what happens Ed if he isn't PM ? he'll be 45, hit his peak and will politically then be on the scrapheap but with 25-30 working years ahead of him. its one of the side effects of putting young inexperienced politicos into key roles too early.
Taffy's.. The Conservatives and L/D's have no idea about what "Working Class " means but at least they dont claim to be members.... unlike most of the Opposition
"With growing question marks over Jim Murphy’s loyalty to Ed Miliband... "
Ho ho. Considering that SLab is the only functioning part of the Better Together campaign, and that Jim Murphy is one of the very, very few functioning parts of SLab, there is something that Ed Miliband just *cannot* afford to do, and that is sack Jim Murphy.
Well, not in 2013, but come October 2014... ?
You mean Murphy isn't quite as obvious about it as wee Dougie I presume. Murphy is about as 'loyal' to little Ed as he's ever been which isn't saying much but hasn't stopped him being Shadow Def Sec until now. What's changed? In a word, Falkirk.
Well, if the Falkirk affair results in Ed Miliband sacking Jim Murphy, then the investigative journalism of the Glasgow Herald (which broke the story long before the London press cottoned on) might just end up being a contributing factor in the dissolution of the Union. Who'd've thunk it?
If he does go it's a bit of a stretch for it to be over anything other than that though doubtless some excuse would be used. Amusingly wee Dougie is also more than a touch involved in the fun and games over Falkirk and other places, yet the talk was of him replacing Tom Watson. This would be the same Tom Watson who left over Falkirk.
Good to see Lamont stamping her authority all over scottish labour as usual though.
Lucky for Johann that CVs are excluded from the ASA's code of conduct, and therefore do not need to be "legal, decent, honest and truthful". Otherwise it would not be possible for her to refer to herself as the "Leader of the Scottish Labour Party" (sic).
Anyone who believes headlines in the Record has their brain nodules in tatters.
Policy is to stay/reapply to NATO as a non-nuclear country as Spain did as a precedent in 1982. Policy is to leave NATO if they cannot accept Trident leaving Scotland.
I would suggest that policy is agreed by the majority of Scots, let alone SNP supporters.
Good call - Ian Murray MP is of the 2010 intake of new MPs, he’s still relatively young at 36 and his Wiki entry even states he had real life working experience before entering politics. – So which shadow post do you envisage him taking over ?
In the interests of disclosure, you do know that Ian Murray MP is Roger's cousin (or some type of relative anyway).
I've only just spotted that Betfair have now opened their Indyref market. Been going since late July apparently. In fact, they currently have the best prices for both Yes and No:
"OK, there’s still a long way to go. But at the time of writing the day is 11 hours old, and as yet nothing especially disastrous has happened to Ed Miliband and the Labour party.
On Monday the Labour leader returned from his holiday. A few hours later his immigration policy imploded live on the Today programme. On Tuesday a poll was published in the Guardian showing the Tories are now soaring ahead of Labour on the key issue of economic competence. On Wednesday, Miliband got egged. Yesterday a second poll showed he is now as unpopular as Gordon Brown, and even more unpopular than Nick Clegg. Up until that point it had been widely assumed the only political leader more unpopular than Nick Clegg was Robert Mugabe..."
Good call - Ian Murray MP is of the 2010 intake of new MPs, he’s still relatively young at 36 and his Wiki entry even states he had real life working experience before entering politics. – So which shadow post do you envisage him taking over ?
In the interests of disclosure, you do know that Ian Murray MP is Roger's cousin (or some type of relative anyway).
I had an inkling there was some affiliation – but more than one MP in the past has gone on to great success - despite such family embarrassments.
"Labour loves a good crisis. Last month Liam Byrne claimed Britain was facing a “youth unemployment crisis”. Not to be outdone, Stephen Timms popped up this week and said that, actually, Britain was facing an “underemployment crisis”. Back in June it was Jack Dromey’s turn. The country was facing a “housing crisis", he warned. In January it was a “crisis in childcare” according to Stephen Twigg. Poor Andy Burnham can’t walk out of his front door without tripping over some sort of crisis in the NHS. This year alone he’s uncovered an A&E crisis, a social care crisis and a staff shortage crisis. In fact, everywhere you look – or everywhere Ed Miliband and the Labour Party looks, at least – the country is imploding.
Over the past week there have been demands from some in Labour’s ranks to “shout louder” to get their message across. But in reality Labour has done precious little over the past three years except shout. With the result that the British voters have now become tone deaf to just about everything Miliband and his party are saying.
"Ed Miliband is trying to define himself as an effective leader of the opposition. But he’s in increasing danger of looking like the leader of one of those doomsday cults, the morning after doomsday has failed to materialise."
The [probable - if any] main error of Rod's use of the Monte Carlo method would have been in his choice of error model for the uncertainties in PM approval and two-party share this far out from the election.
That said, the evidence from MORI is that incumbent Prime Ministers improve their satisfaction rating as the election approaches, which would decrease the probability of a Labour majority.
What I have done, which I thought was interesting, was to reverse the L&N model so that we can find out the level down to which Cameron's satisfaction rating would have to go for the model to predict that Labour and the Conservatives would be level on votes. The answer is that his satisfaction rating would have to decline to less than 45% of the two-party share, which on the 65% two-party share of the last election would be less than 29%, and on a large, YouGov-esque, two-party share of 75% would be 33%.
From the MORI chart it looks as though Cameron's lowest MORI satisfaction rating as Prime Minister is 31%, so it is hard to see the chances of a Labour majority as anything other than very slim - if the L&N model continues to apply.
And here it gets interesting. L&N have to divide Churchill's 1945 approval rating in half for it to fit their model, which they justify on account of him leading a wartime Coalition, and half of his approval being attributable to his Coalition partners. If we follow this example, and reduce Cameron's PM approval by the proportion settled on by the executors of a recently well-publicised will, then it reduces his satisfaction rating to 31%, around the level that would predict a Labour lead in votes.
Six month's until The Lady In The Villa decree's that Comrade Miliband be thrown over-board, I guarantee it.
Don’t be daft – No matter how bad things get for Eg, Polly will say put a peg on your nose and support him – just as she did with Gordon Brown.
Actually, despite the Polly/Gord love-in from 2005-2007 things soon went sour and between 2008 and 2010 Polly regularly demanded Brown be sacked, resign, be thrown over board, eviscertated, etc...
Six month's until The Lady In The Villa decree's that Comrade Miliband be thrown over-board, I guarantee it.
Don’t be daft – No matter how bad things get for Eg, Polly will say put a peg on your nose and support him – just as she did with Gordon Brown.
Actually, despite the Polly/Gord love-in from 2005-2007 things soon went sour and between 2008 and 2010 Polly regularly demanded Brown be sacked, resign, thrown over board, eviscertated, etc...
Polly always just projected what she wanted labour to be as to what it was.... whilst somewhat passing reality. It was always 'Gordon could be wonderful, so he will be wonderful'...
Dan Hodges and Tim Stanley have both written in the Telegraph giving advice on how to tweet like Labour (Hodges) and Tories (Stanley) So to address the balance here is my guide to tweeting like a Lib Dem
1. "Out on the streets delivering Focus leaflets and talking to local residents" ~ This tweet is mandatory and must be sent once a week if you wish to stand for office in the Lib Dems or be a Lib Dem candidate. It also good practice for MPs to send these tweets to show they are still down with the ground troops.
2. "We have a Lib Dem friends of cake can we have a Lib Dem friends of x"(red sauce, sausages, saddles etc etc) ~ Lib Dems like being friends of everything ( Apart from Nadine Dorries, UKIP and the Daily Mail)
3. "The leadership are completely ignoring the democratic wishes of the party regarding x. What's the point of conference any more" ~ to be tweeted whenever an MP departs by so much as one word from a conference motion which was voted on by 2% of party members
4. "X (Lib Dem activist) is clearly a Tory/ socialist I don't know why they don't just doesn't go and join them." ~ Normally tweeted about a Lib Dem member who suggests a policy that goes against the prevailing Lib Dem orthodoxy on most given policies or a Lib Dem who is vehemently anti coalition
"9. "We are doomed / going to do well in the general election. Look at the result in Mucking on the wold parish" ~ Tone of tweet to be determined by the result of the latest parish council by election.
And most important of all
10. Anything about #Doctorwho. Doctor Who being the official unofficial religion of Lib Dem activists."
has a battle of the sexes chess match been set up yet with Stuart Wheeler?
I think the Outrage Bus passengers were too exhausted from their trip to Bongo Bongo Land or don't play chess/bridge or poker much - Mr Wheeler seems to have largely been lost in the wash.
"9. "We are doomed / going to do well in the general election. Look at the result in Mucking on the wold parish" ~ Tone of tweet to be determined by the result of the latest parish council by election.
And most important of all
10. Anything about #Doctorwho. Doctor Who being the official unofficial religion of Lib Dem activists."
We are missing instructions to Kippers on how to tweet.
Stuart Wheeler probably did UKIP no harm at all with his comments a few days ago. Those outraged by the comments would have been people who would never have voted for the party in a million years anyway.
"9. "We are doomed / going to do well in the general election. Look at the result in Mucking on the wold parish" ~ Tone of tweet to be determined by the result of the latest parish council by election.
And most important of all
10. Anything about #Doctorwho. Doctor Who being the official unofficial religion of Lib Dem activists."
Six month's until The Lady In The Villa decree's that Comrade Miliband be thrown over-board, I guarantee it.
Don’t be daft – No matter how bad things get for Eg, Polly will say put a peg on your nose and support him – just as she did with Gordon Brown.
Actually, despite the Polly/Gord love-in from 2005-2007 things soon went sour and between 2008 and 2010 Polly regularly demanded Brown be sacked, resign, be thrown over board, eviscertated, etc...
Good point, well made Mr Gin – however when push came to shove regarding the GE, Polly reverted to type,- whatever guff she had been spouting the year or two before, all conviction and principle were cast aside and she toad the party line.
"A POLLING clerk has been jailed for her role in a fraud at local government elections in Derby last May.
Nasreen Akhtar, who was a polling station clerk at the Madeley Centre Polling Station, in Arboretum Ward, helped her nieces, Tameena Ali and Samra Ali, to cast fraudulent votes by pretending to be someone else.
Akhtar, 47, was yesterday jailed at Derby Crown Court for 14 months.
Tameena Ali cast her vote for the Labour candidate Gulfraz Nawaz in the name of Noshiela Maqsood, who is no relation, whereas Samra Ali left before marking the ballot paper.
Maqsood, 24, who lied to police saying she had personally voted, was also given an eight-month jail sentence, suspended for 18 months."
thanks jonnyjimmy - United people's party sounds like a hard left party to me . Can imagine Citizen Smith running it with Arthur Scargill waiting in the wings. Turns out to be a liberal nationalist party!! ??
thanks jonnyjimmy - United people's party sounds like a hard left party to me . Can imagine Citizen Smith running it with Arthur Scargill waiting in the wings. Turns out to be a liberal nationalist party!! ??
I could believe that Andrew Stott was running some sort of Ali G style mockumentary project with the United People's Party were it not for the fact that they've been going for nearly four years now.
thanks jonnyjimmy - United people's party sounds like a hard left party to me . Can imagine Citizen Smith running it with Arthur Scargill waiting in the wings. Turns out to be a liberal nationalist party!! ??
If you look at their electoral history page they have been unsuccessful in co-options.
How the heck can you be *unsuccessfully* co-opted? Co-option is the sort of thing that gets squared away in advance...
(Glad to see the good folk of Woolhampton kept to their senses though. these guys are clearly the local nutters)
Tories unlikely to benefit from economic Osborne with a figure like Osborne as CoE If Cameron's loyalty wasn't to his mates he'd put Theresa May in the job.
That masks Osborne's rise from 29 to 36. Before this Balls had been ahead on the measure, so there has been a recovery in the Boy's ratings. If the economy continues to improve then it will be tough for Balls to maintain his parity.
PBTories still cling on to the hope they can be brought back into their camp to fulfil Rod Crosby's hilarious 20% chance !
Actually it's more a case of tim clutching at psephological straws, in this case a weighted sample of just 136 ex-LD voters who split fairly evenly: 47 Osborne, 57 Balls, 23 Neither, 8 Dunno, and who in any case have nearly two years to change their minds.
Sure, you can tweet like a Leftie. Or you can tweet like a Rightie. But what about those of us who smugly hold ourselves above such petty tribal considerations? What if you look down your smarmy nose at frothing Right-wingers and deluded Left-wingers with equal disdain? Where is the guide for the oh-so-superior evidence-based rationalist tosspot?
Don't worry, chaps and non-chaps. Help is at hand.
1) "I think you'll find it's a bit more complicated than that". This is the heart of everything that the Self-Righteous Vacillating Centrist Stats Bore does. Take the biggest story of the day, which, with any luck, the goblin hordes of Right and Left are fighting over furiously – new ONS stats show that Tory education cuts are causing emphysema in dogs in the South East, or something. Gently show that both sides have failed to take into account some confounding variable about canine lung disorders, and suggest that they haven't really got the hang of statistics. Sit back with a look of superiority on your face.
2) "Correlation doesn't equal causation". This one's getting a bit overused, so maybe dress it up as "the third-variable problem" and draw an analogy of ice cream and drownings. Trot this one out whenever a Conservative suggests that welfare reform has got people back into work, or when a Leftie angrily points out that the number of children in poverty has gone up since the Tories got in, or something. Sit back with a look of superiority on your face.
3) "On the one hand, on the other hand": Tricky to get right, because you're trying to fit an awful lot of smug detail into a very short 140-character space. But you need to make it clear that you can see both sides of the argument here, you're not blinkered (unlike some people who we won't mention) by your ideological purity, and that yes, of course, that Charles Manson chap made a lot of mistakes, but in some ways etc etc. Sit back with a look of superiority on your face... >>
"there’s a strong sense that an injection of new blood is needed"
Labour's problem is still Gordon Brown,and will be for another few elections yet.
It's similar to the way John Major lost the 1997, 2001 and 2005 elections for the Tories. All Miliband can do is wait for the electorate to forget what Labour actually does in office.
Households in England and Wales cut their energy use by a quarter over a six year period, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
Average consumption of gas and electricity fell by 24.7% between 2005 and 2011.
Customers have faced steep increases in bills over the period, and may be economising as a result.
The regulator, Ofgem, said that bills have risen by 28% in the last three years.
But increasing use of energy efficiency measures, such as insulation, double-glazing and new boilers, may also be playing its part.
"This fall in consumption shows how effective it is to insulate your home," said a spokesman for Energy UK, which represents Britain's energy suppliers.
"Britain's homes are notoriously leaky and energy companies have been busy improving properties to make them warmer and easier to heat," he said.
The ONS said another reason for the fall in consumption might be the introduction of energy ratings for properties and for household appliances, allowing customers to make informed choices.
But it also noted the price rises.
According to Ofgem, the average dual fuel bill is now £1,420 a year.
Somebody once commented under a Chivers column that at the Labourgraph, the trolls write the blog posts and the sensible people write the comments underneath.
Our own Sean T seems to have absorbed this very quickly!
Top marks, however, for the picture at the top of the page. If you read no further, you're not missing much. The only other noteworthy thing I spotted was this:
"Earlier in the week I was talking to one of David Cameron’s advisers. “Labour’s biggest mistake was the way they misjudged the mood of the voters on the cuts,” he said. “Basically, the public were ahead of the politicians on this one. They knew after the crash we were in for hard times. But Ed Miliband thought when they finally arrived, people would recoil. Instead, they’ve just said 'we don’t like it, but we know there’s not really any alternative'.” "
Some of us pointed out in 2010 that the public were ahead of the politicians on this. But the unnamed adviser is being a bit complacent. The cuts have not finished biting yet, and there's plenty of time for the public's mood to turn.
Comments
looking at it from the outside Stuart the whole campaign to date has been a pretty miserable affair, neither side has grabbed the imagination nor landed any killer blows. Both sides seem to be using the same Ad agency Dismal Dire and Dreich.
Reminds me of Billy Connolly's tale of burying Robin Hood.
Dunno, and it's still a looming issue for us local govt/HB administering bods, but the slower and more gradual the introduction the decreased risk of it all going pear-shaped. So if the pilots are taking more time, then I ain't complaining.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2d4e9da4-058a-11e3-ad01-00144feab7de.html#axzz2c77z5rXm
Labour Press Team @labourpress
WATCH: @hilarybennmp is on @BBCNews now
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/nato-chiefs-warns-snp-barred-2173702
That's why I'm fascinated by the wisdom index.
You are asking thousands of people to, effectively, run an extremely sophisticated election "simulation", which inevitably takes into account many variables, some quantifiable like polling, some less quantifiable but still vital - say, the "mood" of the electorate towards local issues in certain parts of the country, the way candidates might "come across" in debates, the impact of tactical voting.
Then you add them all together to filter out "noise" like partisanship, wishful thinking, stick-any-old-number-in-I'm-not-arsed ness.
It would be fascinating to know what "threats" Willie Rennie thinks Scotland would be exposed to if it wasnt in NATO. An invasion by the Faroes maybe?
If a party is on the up it's on the up, if it's on the slide it's on the slide. Moving the deckchairs about is neither here nor' there.
Interesting that Tim has told us he wants Balls moved - Is this an admission that Balls has lost (and Osborne has won) the economic arguement? As this is how is surely how it would be interpreted by the public and the media?
"Poor Ed Miliband, he couldn’t even come out decisively against an egg being chucked at his head. He looked as if his mind had become so addled from his strategy of refusing to say he’ll reverse what his opponents are doing that he’d say that now the egg was in his hair there’s no point in washing it out. Then he’d issue a statement saying that “the real issue is that up and down the country what hard-working chickens are asking is why our economy continues to fail our shells”.
The Conservatives have noticed this attitude from Labour, which may be one reason they’ve grown more confident lately. At the moment they can announce whatever cuts they like, then dare Ed Miliband to say he’d reverse them, which he never does. George Osborne could lean across to him all day long, tasering the Shadow Cabinet, and Ed Balls would appear on Channel 4 News to say: “We will make clear proposals concerning these measures, as soon as we have fully costed them, but until then we’ll continue to wriggle on the floor screaming and will not be pressured into hasty announcements.”
When the Home Office sent vans around London, covered in messages about illegal immigration, Labour responded by saying nothing. Maybe this is a result of the Shadow Cabinet converting to a branch of Buddhism that preaches, “Treat the venom of the Tory with silence, for his hostile energy will then turn against he who delivered it, exploding his van like a million petals, sending you many per cent up in the polls.”
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/mark-steel-is-ed-milibands-labour-party-prepared-to-do-or-say-anything-at-all-8763544.html
His language wasn’t in any way insulting, he kept repeating, because “as far as I know there’s no such place as Bongo-Bongo Land”. It may be that he’s missed the point, as most of us were aware he’d made it up. Similarly, if he’d given a speech about how we’re giving too much money to the disabled, saying, “We’re giving millions of pounds a month to Mrs Cripplespaz,” it might not help him if he assured us: “No one could be upset as there’s no such person as Mrs Cripplespaz.”
Or maybe he’s right, in which case he wouldn’t mind if everyone referred to Ukip as a variety of made-up names. On the news Fiona Bruce could say, “It was claimed today that immigration levels are destroying our culture, in a statement by a Buffoon-Packed Smeary Arsewipe Party.” The Times could publish headlines such as “New European Treaty Sure to Be Opposed by Smug Ponced-up Doolally Knobface Party”, and Godfrey Bloom would have no complaints, because the names were all made up.
But the strongest part of Godfrey Bloom’s defence was that his views were those “of the common man”, in particular those held “in the cricket club”. So I suggest he tries talking about Bongo-Bongo Land in a variety of cricket clubs, starting with a team of West Indies veterans, including Curtly Ambrose, Viv Richards and Joel Garner. If you’re not familiar, look them up on Google Images, and I think you’ll agree that should settle it.
A job to know who's side to take. A bit like when Iraq and Iran fell out... Probably best to stay neutral. :^O
I don;t think labour high command is alone. When there was mass industry in Britain, we knew what working class was. Now there isn't the whole concept is much more difficult to pin down.
Gordon the Viking no less.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/aug/16/labour-demons-miliband-tories-nastiness
Six month's until The Lady In The Villa decree's that Comrade Miliband be thrown over-board, I guarantee it.
RT @PopulusPolls: Most noticed news stories this week. pic.twitter.com/rctbow82qr > top news stories in UK: Egypt, followed by "what news?"
Good to see Lamont stamping her authority all over scottish labour as usual though.
Lucky for Johann that CVs are excluded from the ASA's code of conduct, and therefore do not need to be "legal, decent, honest and truthful". Otherwise it would not be possible for her to refer to herself as the "Leader of the Scottish Labour Party" (sic).
Policy is to stay/reapply to NATO as a non-nuclear country as Spain did as a precedent in 1982.
Policy is to leave NATO if they cannot accept Trident leaving Scotland.
I would suggest that policy is agreed by the majority of Scots, let alone SNP supporters.
Grumpy Humpy Land.
No 1.17
Yes 6.2
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100231375/were-not-facing-tory-armageddon-not-every-problem-is-a-crisis-labour-is-in-danger-of-crying-wolf-once-too-often/
"OK, there’s still a long way to go. But at the time of writing the day is 11 hours old, and as yet nothing especially disastrous has happened to Ed Miliband and the Labour party.
On Monday the Labour leader returned from his holiday. A few hours later his immigration policy imploded live on the Today programme. On Tuesday a poll was published in the Guardian showing the Tories are now soaring ahead of Labour on the key issue of economic competence. On Wednesday, Miliband got egged. Yesterday a second poll showed he is now as unpopular as Gordon Brown, and even more unpopular than Nick Clegg. Up until that point it had been widely assumed the only political leader more unpopular than Nick Clegg was Robert Mugabe..."
55.0 Percent or fewer 8
55.01 - 60.0 Percent 5
60.01 - 65.0 Percent 3
65.01 - 70.0 Percent 2.5
70.01 - 75.0 Percent 2.5
75.01 Percent or Greater 4
Over the past week there have been demands from some in Labour’s ranks to “shout louder” to get their message across. But in reality Labour has done precious little over the past three years except shout. With the result that the British voters have now become tone deaf to just about everything Miliband and his party are saying.
"Ed Miliband is trying to define himself as an effective leader of the opposition. But he’s in increasing danger of looking like the leader of one of those doomsday cults, the morning after doomsday has failed to materialise."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X22LsJibTU4
That said, the evidence from MORI is that incumbent Prime Ministers improve their satisfaction rating as the election approaches, which would decrease the probability of a Labour majority.
What I have done, which I thought was interesting, was to reverse the L&N model so that we can find out the level down to which Cameron's satisfaction rating would have to go for the model to predict that Labour and the Conservatives would be level on votes. The answer is that his satisfaction rating would have to decline to less than 45% of the two-party share, which on the 65% two-party share of the last election would be less than 29%, and on a large, YouGov-esque, two-party share of 75% would be 33%.
From the MORI chart it looks as though Cameron's lowest MORI satisfaction rating as Prime Minister is 31%, so it is hard to see the chances of a Labour majority as anything other than very slim - if the L&N model continues to apply.
And here it gets interesting. L&N have to divide Churchill's 1945 approval rating in half for it to fit their model, which they justify on account of him leading a wartime Coalition, and half of his approval being attributable to his Coalition partners. If we follow this example, and reduce Cameron's PM approval by the proportion settled on by the executors of a recently well-publicised will, then it reduces his satisfaction rating to 31%, around the level that would predict a Labour lead in votes.
Actually, despite the Polly/Gord love-in from 2005-2007 things soon went sour and between 2008 and 2010 Polly regularly demanded Brown be sacked, resign, be thrown over board, eviscertated, etc...
Such as;
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2009/sep/25/gordon-brown-resignation-labour-conference
And;
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2009/nov/14/last-hard-choice-for-labour
There was also a fair smattering of "hope over expectation" and "keep your nerve" guff as well;
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2009/sep/07/labour-radical-ideas-electoral-reform
Most amusing.
CON 810
LD 751
LAB 86
UPP 28
Con maj 59 - was 235 in 2011
Dan Hodges and Tim Stanley have both written in the Telegraph giving advice on how to tweet like Labour (Hodges) and Tories (Stanley) So to address the balance here is my guide to tweeting like a Lib Dem
1. "Out on the streets delivering Focus leaflets and talking to local residents" ~ This tweet is mandatory and must be sent once a week if you wish to stand for office in the Lib Dems or be a Lib Dem candidate. It also good practice for MPs to send these tweets to show they are still down with the ground troops.
2. "We have a Lib Dem friends of cake can we have a Lib Dem friends of x"(red sauce, sausages, saddles etc etc) ~ Lib Dems like being friends of everything ( Apart from Nadine Dorries, UKIP and the Daily Mail)
3. "The leadership are completely ignoring the democratic wishes of the party regarding x. What's the point of conference any more" ~ to be tweeted whenever an MP departs by so much as one word from a conference motion which was voted on by 2% of party members
4. "X (Lib Dem activist) is clearly a Tory/ socialist I don't know why they don't just doesn't go and join them." ~ Normally tweeted about a Lib Dem member who suggests a policy that goes against the prevailing Lib Dem orthodoxy on most given policies or a Lib Dem who is vehemently anti coalition
5. "The party is a broad church and we should stop calling on people to leave" ~ Normally tweeted by the same person who sends the tweet above and sent after someone suggests another Lib Dem activist should go and join Labour / the Tories.... > http://carlminns.blogspot.co.uk/2013/08/how-to-tweet-like-lib-dem.html?utm_source=buffer&utm_campaign=Buffer&utm_content=buffer64c42&utm_medium=twitter
"9. "We are doomed / going to do well in the general election. Look at the result in Mucking on the wold parish" ~ Tone of tweet to be determined by the result of the latest parish council by election.
And most important of all
10. Anything about #Doctorwho. Doctor Who being the official unofficial religion of Lib Dem activists."
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/a13.stm
This may be a starting point:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/adamwilson/7533954756/
Do Wheelers and the Blooms of this world help UKIP gain supporters, lose them or no change? My gut (and optimism) says they are net vote losers.
But no UKIP candidate? the tories would surely have struggled if there had been one.
http://www.unitedpeoplesparty.org.uk/
Nasreen Akhtar, who was a polling station clerk at the Madeley Centre Polling Station, in Arboretum Ward, helped her nieces, Tameena Ali and Samra Ali, to cast fraudulent votes by pretending to be someone else.
Akhtar, 47, was yesterday jailed at Derby Crown Court for 14 months.
Tameena Ali cast her vote for the Labour candidate Gulfraz Nawaz in the name of Noshiela Maqsood, who is no relation, whereas Samra Ali left before marking the ballot paper.
Maqsood, 24, who lied to police saying she had personally voted, was also given an eight-month jail sentence, suspended for 18 months."
http://www.rottencouncil.co.uk/jail-for-polling-clerk-for-role-in-derby-election-fraud
How the heck can you be *unsuccessfully* co-opted? Co-option is the sort of thing that gets squared away in advance...
(Glad to see the good folk of Woolhampton kept to their senses though. these guys are clearly the local nutters)
The Plantagenet Alliance launched a legal challenge to the decision made by the Ministry of Justice in May."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-23726011
Sure, you can tweet like a Leftie. Or you can tweet like a Rightie. But what about those of us who smugly hold ourselves above such petty tribal considerations? What if you look down your smarmy nose at frothing Right-wingers and deluded Left-wingers with equal disdain? Where is the guide for the oh-so-superior evidence-based rationalist tosspot?
Don't worry, chaps and non-chaps. Help is at hand.
1) "I think you'll find it's a bit more complicated than that". This is the heart of everything that the Self-Righteous Vacillating Centrist Stats Bore does. Take the biggest story of the day, which, with any luck, the goblin hordes of Right and Left are fighting over furiously – new ONS stats show that Tory education cuts are causing emphysema in dogs in the South East, or something. Gently show that both sides have failed to take into account some confounding variable about canine lung disorders, and suggest that they haven't really got the hang of statistics. Sit back with a look of superiority on your face.
2) "Correlation doesn't equal causation". This one's getting a bit overused, so maybe dress it up as "the third-variable problem" and draw an analogy of ice cream and drownings. Trot this one out whenever a Conservative suggests that welfare reform has got people back into work, or when a Leftie angrily points out that the number of children in poverty has gone up since the Tories got in, or something. Sit back with a look of superiority on your face.
3) "On the one hand, on the other hand": Tricky to get right, because you're trying to fit an awful lot of smug detail into a very short 140-character space. But you need to make it clear that you can see both sides of the argument here, you're not blinkered (unlike some people who we won't mention) by your ideological purity, and that yes, of course, that Charles Manson chap made a lot of mistakes, but in some ways etc etc. Sit back with a look of superiority on your face... >>
www.youtube.com/watch?v=mhIuiXnGnls
Labour's problem is still Gordon Brown,and will be for another few elections yet.
It's similar to the way John Major lost the 1997, 2001 and 2005 elections for the Tories. All Miliband can do is wait for the electorate to forget what Labour actually does in office.
Last time this took 18 years.
UPP? Sounds like something from Northern Ireland! (cf. UUP, UUUP, DUP, PUP, UDP, etc.)
Average consumption of gas and electricity fell by 24.7% between 2005 and 2011.
Customers have faced steep increases in bills over the period, and may be economising as a result.
The regulator, Ofgem, said that bills have risen by 28% in the last three years.
But increasing use of energy efficiency measures, such as insulation, double-glazing and new boilers, may also be playing its part.
"This fall in consumption shows how effective it is to insulate your home," said a spokesman for Energy UK, which represents Britain's energy suppliers.
"Britain's homes are notoriously leaky and energy companies have been busy improving properties to make them warmer and easier to heat," he said.
The ONS said another reason for the fall in consumption might be the introduction of energy ratings for properties and for household appliances, allowing customers to make informed choices.
But it also noted the price rises.
According to Ofgem, the average dual fuel bill is now £1,420 a year.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23723385
Somebody once commented under a Chivers column that at the Labourgraph, the trolls write the blog posts and the sensible people write the comments underneath.
Our own Sean T seems to have absorbed this very quickly!
"They're out of touch. You're out of pocket."
Can't recall seeing that being posted here. Is it old news?
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100231375/were-not-facing-tory-armageddon-not-every-problem-is-a-crisis-labour-is-in-danger-of-crying-wolf-once-too-often/
Top marks, however, for the picture at the top of the page. If you read no further, you're not missing much. The only other noteworthy thing I spotted was this:
"Earlier in the week I was talking to one of David Cameron’s advisers. “Labour’s biggest mistake was the way they misjudged the mood of the voters on the cuts,” he said. “Basically, the public were ahead of the politicians on this one. They knew after the crash we were in for hard times. But Ed Miliband thought when they finally arrived, people would recoil. Instead, they’ve just said 'we don’t like it, but we know there’s not really any alternative'.” "
Some of us pointed out in 2010 that the public were ahead of the politicians on this. But the unnamed adviser is being a bit complacent. The cuts have not finished biting yet, and there's plenty of time for the public's mood to turn.
And yet Tim says the tories are spending more than labour.....??
And so the message is that the tories are nasty vicious mill owners who are also spendthrifts.
Just like the country that has an enormous obesity epidemic also has thousands relying on food banks just to eat.