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YouGov have published some findings about what the voters remember about the campaign, they find that

Read the full story here

CarlottaVance

First!

IanB2

Second!

CarlottaVance

"Fox hunting killed them" - 2%......But the Tories are crossest about the Tory campaign....which might make for an uncomfortable Conference

What's striking is how low in general all the specific numbers are - if only one in 20 recall Theresa May not turning up to a debate I doubt that will bind the hands of her successor.

Interestingly 'Abolition of Tuition Fees' is only remembered by 9% of the 18-24 demographic, and only 3% of them think Labour targeted the 'Youth Vote' while 17% of the 65+ recall Labour promises as 'Empty/unaffordable'.......all in all two campaigns relying on 'Star quality' - and only one of them had a (not very bright) 'Star'.....

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/dpepbcwjta/InternalResults_170613_Coding_RememberaboutParties_W.pdf

CarlottaVance

FPT:

The Conservatives are finished....part 976....

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/885627426738507776
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/885623358074875905
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/885623127727800320

Meanwhile, back in the real world.....

DecrepitJohnL

CarlottaVance said:

"Fox hunting killed them" - 2%......But the Tories are crossest about the Tory campaign....which might make for an uncomfortable Conference

What's striking is how low in general all the specific numbers are - if only one in 20 recall Theresa May not turning up to a debate I doubt that will bind the hands of her successor.

Interestingly 'Abolition of Tuition Fees' is only remembered by 9% of the 18-24 demographic, and only 3% of them think Labour targeted the 'Youth Vote' while 17% of the 65+ recall Labour promises as 'Empty/unaffordable'.......all in all two campaigns relying on 'Star quality' - and only one of them had a (not very bright) 'Star'.....

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/dpepbcwjta/InternalResults_170613_Coding_RememberaboutParties_W.pdf

Low numbers are not striking at all if respondents are asked to name only ONE thing from a long list.

IanB2

DecrepitJohnL said:

CarlottaVance said:

"Fox hunting killed them" - 2%......But the Tories are crossest about the Tory campaign....which might make for an uncomfortable Conference

What's striking is how low in general all the specific numbers are - if only one in 20 recall Theresa May not turning up to a debate I doubt that will bind the hands of her successor.

Interestingly 'Abolition of Tuition Fees' is only remembered by 9% of the 18-24 demographic, and only 3% of them think Labour targeted the 'Youth Vote' while 17% of the 65+ recall Labour promises as 'Empty/unaffordable'.......all in all two campaigns relying on 'Star quality' - and only one of them had a (not very bright) 'Star'.....

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/dpepbcwjta/InternalResults_170613_Coding_RememberaboutParties_W.pdf

Low numbers are not striking at all if respondents are asked to name only ONE thing from a long list.

I am not even sure there was a list - it looks like an unprompted write in survey to me (hence the catch-all categories May/Corbyn neutral, etc.). Write in surveys will always get a lower response because it requires effort, and is best interpreted as "what is the top thing you remember" about each campaign, as few respondents will scour their memory for every detail. It's also asking for recall a month or two later; something that influenced people then isn't necessarily remembered now, most people being distinctly uninvolved and uninterested by the antics of our politicians.

IanB2

FPT: Result of the Chorleywood South and Maple Cross by-election

UK Independence Party (UK I P) 28

Labour Party 162

The Green Party 27

Conservative Party 597

Liberal Democrat 1,428

CarlottaVance

IanB2 said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

CarlottaVance said:

"Fox hunting killed them" - 2%......But the Tories are crossest about the Tory campaign....which might make for an uncomfortable Conference

What's striking is how low in general all the specific numbers are - if only one in 20 recall Theresa May not turning up to a debate I doubt that will bind the hands of her successor.

Interestingly 'Abolition of Tuition Fees' is only remembered by 9% of the 18-24 demographic, and only 3% of them think Labour targeted the 'Youth Vote' while 17% of the 65+ recall Labour promises as 'Empty/unaffordable'.......all in all two campaigns relying on 'Star quality' - and only one of them had a (not very bright) 'Star'.....

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/dpepbcwjta/InternalResults_170613_Coding_RememberaboutParties_W.pdf

Low numbers are not striking at all if respondents are asked to name only ONE thing from a long list.

I am not even sure there was a list - it looks like an unprompted write in survey to me (hence the catch-all categories May/Corbyn neutral, etc.). Write in surveys will always get a lower response because it requires effort, and is best interpreted as "what is the top thing you remember" about each campaign, as few respondents will scour their memory for every detail. It's also asking for recall a month or two later; something that influenced people then isn't necessarily remembered now, most people being distinctly uninvolved and uninterested by the antics of our politicians.

Quite - voters pay much less attention to politics than we do and asking the question over a month after the event (rather than immediately after) risks significant pollution of responses - since then we've had the Grenfell fire & pretty unrelenting poor coverage for the PM & government, so while this poll tells us something I'm not sure it tells us much we didn't already know - apart from political anoraks pay MUCH more attention than voters...

CarlottaVance

DecrepitJohnL said:

CarlottaVance said:

"Fox hunting killed them" - 2%......But the Tories are crossest about the Tory campaign....which might make for an uncomfortable Conference

What's striking is how low in general all the specific numbers are - if only one in 20 recall Theresa May not turning up to a debate I doubt that will bind the hands of her successor.

Interestingly 'Abolition of Tuition Fees' is only remembered by 9% of the 18-24 demographic, and only 3% of them think Labour targeted the 'Youth Vote' while 17% of the 65+ recall Labour promises as 'Empty/unaffordable'.......all in all two campaigns relying on 'Star quality' - and only one of them had a (not very bright) 'Star'.....

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/dpepbcwjta/InternalResults_170613_Coding_RememberaboutParties_W.pdf

Low numbers are not striking at all if respondents are asked to name only ONE thing from a long list.

That's true, but 'Diane Abbott' ranks as well as or higher than 'Tuition Fees', 'For the Many not the Few' and 'Youth Targeting' for Labour - so very little (verging on 'nothing') 'cut through'. Even the detested 'Strong & Stable' only gets 11%.....though if the 'product' had matched the 'claim' it might have done better.....

CarlottaVance

IanB2 said:

FPT: Result of the Chorleywood South and Maple Cross by-election

UK Independence Party (UK I P) 28

Labour Party 162

The Green Party 27

Conservative Party 597

Liberal Democrat 1,428

Not much change vs 2016 - LD hold, Government hit a bit, no Corbynmania.....UKIP RIP

May 2016 result LD 1418 C 687 Lab 171 UKIP 125

IanB2

CarlottaVance said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

CarlottaVance said:

"Fox hunting killed them" - 2%......But the Tories are crossest about the Tory campaign....which might make for an uncomfortable Conference

What's striking is how low in general all the specific numbers are - if only one in 20 recall Theresa May not turning up to a debate I doubt that will bind the hands of her successor.

Interestingly 'Abolition of Tuition Fees' is only remembered by 9% of the 18-24 demographic, and only 3% of them think Labour targeted the 'Youth Vote' while 17% of the 65+ recall Labour promises as 'Empty/unaffordable'.......all in all two campaigns relying on 'Star quality' - and only one of them had a (not very bright) 'Star'.....

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/dpepbcwjta/InternalResults_170613_Coding_RememberaboutParties_W.pdf

Low numbers are not striking at all if respondents are asked to name only ONE thing from a long list.

That's true, but 'Diane Abbott' ranks as well as or higher than 'Tuition Fees', 'For the Many not the Few' and 'Youth Targeting' for Labour - so very little (verging on 'nothing') 'cut through'. Even the detested 'Strong & Stable' only gets 11%.....though if the 'product' had matched the 'claim' it might have done better.....

And I see that the survey does indeed only ask for one thing. Your fox hunting - 2% does nevertheless suggest that for somewhere around a million people, asked one month later the Tory fox hunting proposal is the single most prominent thing they remember from the Conservative campaign - which given all the other things they could have said does sugges that this issue was salient. There aren't that many policy issues mentioned at all.

RobD

IanB2 said:

CarlottaVance said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

CarlottaVance said:

"Fox hunting killed them" - 2%......But the Tories are crossest about the Tory campaign....which might make for an uncomfortable Conference

What's striking is how low in general all the specific numbers are - if only one in 20 recall Theresa May not turning up to a debate I doubt that will bind the hands of her successor.

Interestingly 'Abolition of Tuition Fees' is only remembered by 9% of the 18-24 demographic, and only 3% of them think Labour targeted the 'Youth Vote' while 17% of the 65+ recall Labour promises as 'Empty/unaffordable'.......all in all two campaigns relying on 'Star quality' - and only one of them had a (not very bright) 'Star'.....

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/dpepbcwjta/InternalResults_170613_Coding_RememberaboutParties_W.pdf

Low numbers are not striking at all if respondents are asked to name only ONE thing from a long list.

That's true, but 'Diane Abbott' ranks as well as or higher than 'Tuition Fees', 'For the Many not the Few' and 'Youth Targeting' for Labour - so very little (verging on 'nothing') 'cut through'. Even the detested 'Strong & Stable' only gets 11%.....though if the 'product' had matched the 'claim' it might have done better.....

And I see that the survey does indeed only ask for one thing. Your fox hunting - 2% does nevertheless suggest that for somewhere around a million people, asked one month later the Tory fox hunting proposal is the single most prominent thing they remember from the Conservative campaign - which given all the other things they could have said does sugges that this issue was salient. There aren't that many policy issues mentioned at all.

A million plus or minus a million.

Icarus

"the Tories are crossest about the Tory campaign....which might make for an uncomfortable ConferenceI". Who is going to manage the Tory conference this year? Indeed who is running the Tory party these days?

Perhaps a book on the slogan behind the podium? My bet would be no slogan just the party name, on the basis that they won't be able to agree on one.

IanB2

RobD said:

IanB2 said:

CarlottaVance said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

CarlottaVance said:

"Fox hunting killed them" - 2%......But the Tories are crossest about the Tory campaign....which might make for an uncomfortable Conference

What's striking is how low in general all the specific numbers are - if only one in 20 recall Theresa May not turning up to a debate I doubt that will bind the hands of her successor.

Interestingly 'Abolition of Tuition Fees' is only remembered by 9% of the 18-24 demographic, and only 3% of them think Labour targeted the 'Youth Vote' while 17% of the 65+ recall Labour promises as 'Empty/unaffordable'.......all in all two campaigns relying on 'Star quality' - and only one of them had a (not very bright) 'Star'.....

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/dpepbcwjta/InternalResults_170613_Coding_RememberaboutParties_W.pdf

Low numbers are not striking at all if respondents are asked to name only ONE thing from a long list.

That's true, but 'Diane Abbott' ranks as well as or higher than 'Tuition Fees', 'For the Many not the Few' and 'Youth Targeting' for Labour - so very little (verging on 'nothing') 'cut through'. Even the detested 'Strong & Stable' only gets 11%.....though if the 'product' had matched the 'claim' it might have done better.....

And I see that the survey does indeed only ask for one thing. Your fox hunting - 2% does nevertheless suggest that for somewhere around a million people, asked one month later the Tory fox hunting proposal is the single most prominent thing they remember from the Conservative campaign - which given all the other things they could have said does sugges that this issue was salient. There aren't that many policy issues mentioned at all.

A million plus or minus a million.

There must be at least 33.

Tories I have met said that it came up quite often on doorsteps and in correspondence. I doubt we will ever see the proposal re-emerge again; it's almost the only issue that the election has actually settled for good.

IanB2

Icarus said:

"the Tories are crossest about the Tory campaign....which might make for an uncomfortable ConferenceI". Who is going to manage the Tory conference this year? Indeed who is running the Tory party these days?

Perhaps a book on the slogan behind the podium? My bet would be no slogan just the party name, on the basis that they won't be able to agree on one.

Staggering on with Theresa?

DecrepitJohnL

IanB2 said:

Icarus said:

"the Tories are crossest about the Tory campaign....which might make for an uncomfortable ConferenceI". Who is going to manage the Tory conference this year? Indeed who is running the Tory party these days?

Perhaps a book on the slogan behind the podium? My bet would be no slogan just the party name, on the basis that they won't be able to agree on one.

Staggering on with Theresa?

Brexit means ... no popery here?

OldKingCole

A fox-hunting thread. Makes a change from AV!

DecrepitJohnL

From OP: given the opprobrium the Tories heaped upon Jeremy Corbyn the fact he was recalled as more of a positive than a negative must really alarm the Tories.

Someone (sorry -- forgotten who) suggested on pb (after the election) that perhaps the Conservative anti-Corbyn video actually made Jeremy look charismatic. Maybe next time, as well as cheering its record number of views, CCHQ will check it is having the desired effect.

IanB2

DecrepitJohnL said:

From OP: given the opprobrium the Tories heaped upon Jeremy Corbyn the fact he was recalled as more of a positive than a negative must really alarm the Tories.

Someone (sorry -- forgotten who) suggested on pb (after the election) that perhaps the Conservative anti-Corbyn video actually made Jeremy look charismatic. Maybe next time, as well as cheering its record number of views, CCHQ will check it is having the desired effect.

The most striking figure to leap out of the subsamples - noting of course the significant MOE - is that a full 25% of younger voters remembered something about Corbyn that was classified as a "neutral" statement as the most notable thing from the Labour campaign. Indeed positive statements about Corbyn scored only 4% among younger voters; the lowest of any age demographic (and the same as the proportion of Tory voters for whom something positive about Corbyn was their top recall). Which suggests that Corbyn did exceptionally well in getting noticed by younger voters, but without the adoration that some of the media reports would have us believe.

Edit/ although TBF as per the lead, if many of these were simply write in "Jeremy Corbyn"s it isn't unreasonable to assume many of these were actually intended as positive recollections.

CarlottaVance

IanB2 said:

Icarus said:

"the Tories are crossest about the Tory campaign....which might make for an uncomfortable ConferenceI". Who is going to manage the Tory conference this year? Indeed who is running the Tory party these days?

Perhaps a book on the slogan behind the podium? My bet would be no slogan just the party name, on the basis that they won't be able to agree on one.

Staggering on with Theresa?

Strong & Stable Marriage

If two want to be petty & vindictive......

Casino_Royale

So, most people don't remember anything about either campaign?

Interesting lesson there.

Alanbrooke

Macron steps up to his new world role by cutting defence expenditure

http://www.lefigaro.fr/actualite-france/2017/07/13/01016-20170713ARTFIG00283-la-defense-sous-le-choc-des-reductions-budgetaires.php

IanB2

Casino_Royale said:

So, most people don't remember anything about either campaign?

Interesting lesson there.

6% "nothing" plus 6/7% "don't know/not applicable" is hardly "most people".

AlastairMeeks

62% of respondents named something negative or unflattering as the one thing they remembered about the Conservatives' campaign (treating the Dementia Tax as negative but ascribing no steer to fox hunting, Brexit or "other policies", which seems cautious). Only 23% of respondents named something unambiguously negative about Labour's campaign - you can up that to 28% if you include Diane Abbott. In other words, as is received wisdom, the Conservatives had a truly awful campaign.

AlastairMeeks

Casino_Royale said:

So, most people don't remember anything about either campaign?

Interesting lesson there.

They're asked to name one thing, apparently unprompted. It's not surprising there's quite a scatter.

IanB2

I see Balls got repeated spankings from Neil for being a poorly behaved guest on TW last night,

CarlottaVance

But we haven't left yet

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/brexit-trading-slump-blamed-for-closure-of-gastropub-loved-by-nigella-lawson-a3586996.html

Jonathan

The 2017 campaign was remarkable. Busted forever the idea that campaigns don't matter.

Scott_P

£350m a week for the NHS...

https://twitter.com/jameschappers/status/885582891996127232

Sean_F

Jonathan said:

The 2017 campaign was remarkable. Busted forever the idea that campaigns don't matter.

The conventional wisdom has been completely busted in so many ways.

OldKingCole

AlastairMeeks said:

62% of respondents named something negative or unflattering as the one thing they remembered about the Conservatives' campaign (treating the Dementia Tax as negative but ascribing no steer to fox hunting, Brexit or "other policies", which seems cautious). Only 23% of respondents named something unambiguously negative about Labour's campaign - you can up that to 28% if you include Diane Abbott. In other words, as is received wisdom, the Conservatives had a truly awful campaign.

Not entirely sure you can treat reference to Diane Abbott as Labour negative. I thought she was a car crash at first but when it appeared her diabetes had gone out of control I was more sympathetic, and the attacks on her began to seem ‘nasty Tory’.
In other words, I remember the way she was treeated.

IanB2

Jonathan said:

The 2017 campaign was remarkable. Busted forever the idea that campaigns don't matter.

Probably. Although if the YouGov model is right in indicating that the Tory lead may only have been around 4-6% before the GE was called (rising to 6-8% instantly it was called), the final 2% margin doesn't look as big a shift as the contrast between the other polls and the result apparently suggests.

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

Mr. Eagles, actually, I'd assess the Corbyn positive/negative stats in precisely the opposite way.

May had a terrible campaign. She was seen as negative. The campaign was seen poorly.

Labour had a good campaign. Corbyn was pretty neutral overall.

Result of terrible blue campaign and great red campaign? Labour 50-60 seats behind.

It's obvious to see where Conservatives could improve. Not being shit would be the starting point. Attacking opposition policies instead of letting them get free airtime. Proposing policies that aren't designed specifically to frighten off the Conservative core vote.

Where does Labour go? I'm not saying they can't improve just that it's much harder than for the Conservatives. Not only that, whilst the Government will take an EU hit whatever happens, Corbyn can't do the hokey-cokey whilst the bills are going through the Commons. He's going to have to nail his position down and that will also put some voters off.

The next result could credibly range from a blue to a red majority, but we shouldn't let assessment of the last campaign lead us to assume Corbyn/Labour are a shoo-in.

Mortimer

Scott_P said:

£350m a week for the NHS...

https://twitter.com/jameschappers/status/885582891996127232

My old principal!

not_on_fire

Scott_P said:

£350m a week for the NHS...

https://twitter.com/jameschappers/status/885582891996127232

But we will have taken back control of our isotopes

Casino_Royale

IanB2 said:

Casino_Royale said:

So, most people don't remember anything about either campaign?

Interesting lesson there.

6% "nothing" plus 6/7% "don't know/not applicable" is hardly "most people".

Ah. Misread it. Thanks.

Sean_F

IanB2 said:

Jonathan said:

The 2017 campaign was remarkable. Busted forever the idea that campaigns don't matter.

Probably. Although if the YouGov model is right in indicating that the Tory lead may only have been around 4-6% before the GE was called (rising to 6-8% instantly it was called), the final 2% margin doesn't look as big a shift as the contrast between the other polls and the result apparently suggests.

The local election results suggest that the Conservative lead was bigger.

Admittedly, even a lead of 4-6% would have given the Conservatives a working majority.

Casino_Royale

IanB2 said:

I see Balls got repeated spankings from Neil for being a poorly behaved guest on TW last night,

What did Balls do?

Casino_Royale

IanB2 said:

Jonathan said:

The 2017 campaign was remarkable. Busted forever the idea that campaigns don't matter.

Probably. Although if the YouGov model is right in indicating that the Tory lead may only have been around 4-6% before the GE was called (rising to 6-8% instantly it was called), the final 2% margin doesn't look as big a shift as the contrast between the other polls and the result apparently suggests.

The trouble with that is the local election results, and the parliamentary by elections, validated a very substantial Conservative lead.

freetochoose

So 4% of tory voters and 0% of labour voters mention Brexit but on here its ubiquitous.

What should that tell the Remoaners?

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/d_g_alexander/status/885754292388470784

Scott_P

@BBCNormanS: Quitting single market will impoverish millions of working people - @Andrew_Adonis

@BBCNormanS: Labour will end up backing continued membership of single market - @Andrew_Adonis @BBCr4today

TonyE

The problem with any analysis of this being a 'Bad Tory Campaign' is that the Conservatives received a greater share of the vote than at any election in decades.

The real story is the rise of Corbynomics, free stuff for everyone, that dragged a lot of voters to his platform, and the fact that nobody thought he could win so the idea of running a negative campaign was pointless. He was the ultimate 'free hit' vote.

Casino_Royale

Scott_P said:

@BBCNormanS: Quitting single market will impoverish millions of working people - @Andrew_Adonis

@BBCNormanS: Labour will end up backing continued membership of single market - @Andrew_Adonis @BBCr4today

Yaaaaaaaaawwwwnnn.

kyf_100

Casino_Royale said:

IanB2 said:

Jonathan said:

The 2017 campaign was remarkable. Busted forever the idea that campaigns don't matter.

Probably. Although if the YouGov model is right in indicating that the Tory lead may only have been around 4-6% before the GE was called (rising to 6-8% instantly it was called), the final 2% margin doesn't look as big a shift as the contrast between the other polls and the result apparently suggests.

The trouble with that is the local election results, and the parliamentary by elections, validated a very substantial Conservative lead.

Could it be that Corbyn was really reaching the parts of the electorate other politicians couldn't reach - the young, the disaffected non-voters etc - who therefore had no interest at all in the May locals but all came out to vote for their man in June?

IanB2

Casino_Royale said:

IanB2 said:

I see Balls got repeated spankings from Neil for being a poorly behaved guest on TW last night,

What did Balls do?

He did a Tim Farron and continued talking about stuff Neil didn't want to hear. And got into a shouting match with Farage. Neil doesn't take kindly to challenges to his being in charge on his own show!

freetochoose

Scott_P said:

@BBCNormanS: Quitting single market will impoverish millions of working people - @Andrew_Adonis

@BBCNormanS: Labour will end up backing continued membership of single market - @Andrew_Adonis @BBCr4today

Give it up mate, there must be something else you can do with your life

IanB2

freetochoose said:

So 4% of tory voters and 0% of labour voters mention Brexit but on here its ubiquitous.

What should that tell the Remoaners?

That neither side in the election actually campaigned on Brexit. Hardly news.

freetochoose

IanB2 said:

freetochoose said:

So 4% of tory voters and 0% of labour voters mention Brexit but on here its ubiquitous.

What should that tell the Remoaners?

That neither side in the election actually campaigned on Brexit. Hardly news.

More to the point outside of a few weirdos on here nobody gives a fuck.

You do get that don't you - 0% of Labour voters mentioned Brexit.

YBarddCwsc

Scott_P said:

@BBCNormanS: Quitting single market will impoverish millions of working people - @Andrew_Adonis

@BBCNormanS: Labour will end up backing continued membership of single market - @Andrew_Adonis @BBCr4today

Out of interest, who will listen to Adonis?

Bill Rammell (former Labour MP, now Vice Chancellor of Uni of Bedfordshire) was left defending tuition fees against its architect.

I imagine that Bill is fuming.

Momentum hate Adonis anyhow. New Labour hate him for being a turncoat.

What influence do you think Adonis has now? His former friends are left defending his former policy. His new friends despise him.

Scott_P

TonyE said:

The problem with any analysis of this being a 'Bad Tory Campaign' is that the Conservatives received a greater share of the vote than at any election in decades.

The real story is the rise of Corbynomics, free stuff for everyone, that dragged a lot of voters to his platform, and the fact that nobody thought he could win so the idea of running a negative campaign was pointless. He was the ultimate 'free hit' vote.

https://twitter.com/_hanimustafa/status/885597305314971648

IanB2

TonyE said:

The problem with any analysis of this being a 'Bad Tory Campaign' is that the Conservatives received a greater share of the vote than at any election in decades.

The real story is the rise of Corbynomics, free stuff for everyone, that dragged a lot of voters to his platform, and the fact that nobody thought he could win so the idea of running a negative campaign was pointless. He was the ultimate 'free hit' vote.

The analysis is based on comparing reality with expectations. Maybe the principal problem is with the expectations - the Tories never were, and probably never will, be on to poll up near 50% of the vote.

Nevertheless the Tory campaign was surely already too negative. People who think the answer is more negativity really are missing the point.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Royale,

Adonis Alert! - Leaving the EU will cause trains on the tube to be up to 7 minutes late.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/885759519522832384

DecrepitJohnL

freetochoose said:

IanB2 said:

freetochoose said:

So 4% of tory voters and 0% of labour voters mention Brexit but on here its ubiquitous.

What should that tell the Remoaners?

That neither side in the election actually campaigned on Brexit. Hardly news.

More to the point outside of a few weirdos on here nobody gives a fuck.

You do get that don't you - 0% of Labour voters mentioned Brexit.

It is odd, though, don't you think, that Theresa May said she called the election to win a mandate for her vision of Brexit and then never mentioned it again?

Here is Theresa May's statement explaining why she was calling an election:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39630009

Monksfield

Scott_P said:

TonyE said:

The problem with any analysis of this being a 'Bad Tory Campaign' is that the Conservatives received a greater share of the vote than at any election in decades.

The real story is the rise of Corbynomics, free stuff for everyone, that dragged a lot of voters to his platform, and the fact that nobody thought he could win so the idea of running a negative campaign was pointless. He was the ultimate 'free hit' vote.

https://twitter.com/_hanimustafa/status/885597305314971648

Will the £400B plus of QE 'found' for the banks ever be paid back? No, it was created from thin air and will be rolled over.

Pulpstar

YBarddCwsc said:

Scott_P said:

@BBCNormanS: Quitting single market will impoverish millions of working people - @Andrew_Adonis

@BBCNormanS: Labour will end up backing continued membership of single market - @Andrew_Adonis @BBCr4today

Out of interest, who will listen to Adonis?

Bill Rammell (former Labour MP, now Vice Chancellor of Uni of Bedfordshire) was left defending tuition fees against its architect.

I imagine that Bill is fuming.

Momentum hate Adonis anyhow. New Labour hate him for being a turncoat.

What influence do you think Adonis has now? His former friends are left defending his former policy. His new friends despise him.

Least he's kept himself in shape:

https://twitter.com/Pulpstar/status/885760231761997826

Morris_Dancer

Good news, everyone.

Traitor's Prize, the sequel to the highly rated Kingdom Asunder, is up for pre-order. Release date is 28 July:
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Traitors-Prize-Bloody-Crown-Trilogy-ebook/dp/B073WGRF3W/

It's a grim/mostly realistic brand of fantasy (broadly comparable to Game of Thrones but less sprawling, and released early rather than late...).

Traitor's Prize is full of treachery and betrayal, backstabbing and sly manoeuvring [not unlike a Conservative leadership election], brimming with lovely violence and battles.

Nigelb

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Mr. Eagles, actually, I'd assess the Corbyn positive/negative stats in precisely the opposite way.

May had a terrible campaign. She was seen as negative. The campaign was seen poorly.

Labour had a good campaign. Corbyn was pretty neutral overall.

Result of terrible blue campaign and great red campaign? Labour 50-60 seats behind.

It's obvious to see where Conservatives could improve. Not being shit would be the starting point. Attacking opposition policies instead of letting them get free airtime. Proposing policies that aren't designed specifically to frighten off the Conservative core vote.

Where does Labour go? I'm not saying they can't improve just that it's much harder than for the Conservatives. Not only that, whilst the Government will take an EU hit whatever happens, Corbyn can't do the hokey-cokey whilst the bills are going through the Commons. He's going to have to nail his position down and that will also put some voters off.

The next result could credibly range from a blue to a red majority, but we shouldn't let assessment of the last campaign lead us to assume Corbyn/Labour are a shoo-in.

Good morning, Mr.D.

I don't think too many are assuming Corbyn is a shoo-in at the next election, but equally, I think it a bit of a mistake to rely only on the election result and extrapolate from there while positing an improved Try campaign next time round.

Judging by the polls since, things were probably still moving Labour's way so that, had the election been a week later, it's possible that the result might have been very different. Corbyn's profile has, if anything, improved further since the election, while May has looked increasingly hapless
It's not obvious how and when a new leader will take charge of the Conservatives to remedy the situation, or who that as yet unheralded paragon might be.

And I don't think your Brexit argument makes a whole lot of sense, either. Unless Brexit is seen as a great success ahead of the next election - something which appears extremely unlikely at present - any hit the government takes will be an order of magnitude larger than that which Labour is likely to take for sniping from the sidelines.

To say that I am not thrilled by the prospect of Corbyn in government would be an understatement, but it is a real prospect.

Nigelb

Morris_Dancer said:

Good news, everyone.

Traitor's Prize, the sequel to the highly rated Kingdom Asunder, is up for pre-order. Release date is 28 July:
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Traitors-Prize-Bloody-Crown-Trilogy-ebook/dp/B073WGRF3W/

It's a grim/mostly realistic brand of fantasy (broadly comparable to Game of Thrones but less sprawling, and released early rather than late...).

Traitor's Prize is full of treachery and betrayal, backstabbing and sly manoeuvring [not unlike a Conservative leadership election], brimming with lovely violence and battles.

I hope the outcome is less depressing ?

freetochoose

DecrepitJohnL said:

freetochoose said:

IanB2 said:

freetochoose said:

So 4% of tory voters and 0% of labour voters mention Brexit but on here its ubiquitous.

What should that tell the Remoaners?

That neither side in the election actually campaigned on Brexit. Hardly news.

More to the point outside of a few weirdos on here nobody gives a fuck.

You do get that don't you - 0% of Labour voters mentioned Brexit.

It is odd, though, don't you think, that Theresa May said she called the election to win a mandate for her vision of Brexit and then never mentioned it again?

Here is Theresa May's statement explaining why she was calling an election:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39630009

You make my point well, she called an election on Brexit, 4% of tory voters and 0% of labour voters mention it. This place is a parallel universe, the general public voted and have moved on.

Scott_P

The famous Vote Leave bus was clear: "We send the EU £350 million a week ... let's fund our NHS instead."

Now, there is a semantic debate to be had about whether this meant the money would or just could be spent on the NHS and how much might be involved.

But what was clear was that money that used to go to Brussels could be spent on other things "instead".

So it was quite a big moment yesterday when the government committed to sending money across the Channel not just until the moment we leave the EU, nor just during some as-yet-unspecified transition process, but ongoing payments which will "survive the UK's withdrawal".

https://twitter.com/timesredbox/status/885760456241106948

CarlottaVance

From over a year ago - Osborne & splits:

She says: “We were conveying our concern that the divisions over Europe could damage the party and George snarled, ‘I don’t give a **** if the party splits’.

“That’s just one of a raft of examples of George’s dyspeptic temper we’ve all had to deal with. He seems to have lost it somewhat.”

A Treasury colleague suggests that George’s irascibility may lie closer to home, citing “tension” with his wife Frances, a writer who can be somewhat aloof.

http://www.express.co.uk/comment/columnists/adam-helliker/661726/George-Osbourne-Rosanna-davison-hacked-off-jeremy-paxman-basil-fawlty

Nigelb

freetochoose said:

IanB2 said:

freetochoose said:

So 4% of tory voters and 0% of labour voters mention Brexit but on here its ubiquitous.

What should that tell the Remoaners?

That neither side in the election actually campaigned on Brexit. Hardly news.

More to the point outside of a few weirdos on here nobody gives a fuck.

You do get that don't you - 0% of Labour voters mentioned Brexit.

Rather extraordinary how many voted in the referendum, if that's the case.
Or has everyone miraculously lost interest ?

freetochoose

Nigelb said:

freetochoose said:

IanB2 said:

freetochoose said:

So 4% of tory voters and 0% of labour voters mention Brexit but on here its ubiquitous.

What should that tell the Remoaners?

That neither side in the election actually campaigned on Brexit. Hardly news.

More to the point outside of a few weirdos on here nobody gives a fuck.

You do get that don't you - 0% of Labour voters mentioned Brexit.

Rather extraordinary how many voted in the referendum, if that's the case.
Or has everyone miraculously lost interest ?

Yes they have, you need to accept it. A few on here are obsessed, nobody else is in the slightest bit interested.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. B, well... those battling for the throne are mostly ruthless, pragmatic and very competent. Theresa May wouldn't last five minutes against Karena Penmere or Stuart Esden.

DecrepitJohnL

OT Macron's great-grandfather was a British tommy at the Somme.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/french-president-emmanuel-macrons-great-10794502

The Mirror has a whole page in its print edition, I noticed on the bus home this morning.

TonyE

@Scott_P Yes - I saw that, did have a wry chuckle to myself!

@IanB2 Agree entirely, expectations were way too high.

@Monksfield Eventually, yes that money will have to be found. It can either be raised in taxes, or inflated away from people in the ordinary manner of state theft - and in the meantime the people carry the cost of the interest paid while the banks (who should have gone to the wall) still pretend they are the masters of the bloody universe.

rottenborough

Nigelb said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Mr. Eagles, actually, I'd assess the Corbyn positive/negative stats in precisely the opposite way.

May had a terrible campaign. She was seen as negative. The campaign was seen poorly.

Labour had a good campaign. Corbyn was pretty neutral overall.

Result of terrible blue campaign and great red campaign? Labour 50-60 seats behind.

It's obvious to see where Conservatives could improve. Not being shit would be the starting point. Attacking opposition policies instead of letting them get free airtime. Proposing policies that aren't designed specifically to frighten off the Conservative core vote.

Where does Labour go? I'm not saying they can't improve just that it's much harder than for the Conservatives. Not only that, whilst the Government will take an EU hit whatever happens, Corbyn can't do the hokey-cokey whilst the bills are going through the Commons. He's going to have to nail his position down and that will also put some voters off.

The next result could credibly range from a blue to a red majority, but we shouldn't let assessment of the last campaign lead us to assume Corbyn/Labour are a shoo-in.

Good morning, Mr.D.

I don't think too many are assuming Corbyn is a shoo-in at the next election, but equally, I think it a bit of a mistake to rely only on the election result and extrapolate from there while positing an improved Try campaign next time round.

Judging by the polls since, things were probably still moving Labour's way so that, had the election been a week later, it's possible that the result might have been very different. Corbyn's profile has, if anything, improved further since the election, while May has looked increasingly hapless
It's not obvious how and when a new leader will take charge of the Conservatives to remedy the situation, or who that as yet unheralded paragon might be.

And I don't think your Brexit argument makes a whole lot of sense, either. Unless Brexit is seen as a great success ahead of the next election - something which appears extremely unlikely at present - any hit the government takes will be an order of magnitude larger than that which Labour is likely to take for sniping from the sidelines.

To say that I am not thrilled by the prospect of Corbyn in government would be an understatement, but it is a real prospect.

The clock is ticking. Heseltine reckons 2% of the older voters die per year. They vote massively Tory, whereas we have just seen the under 45s are Corbyn now:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/conservative-voters-dying-off-lord-michael-heseltine-tory-part-elderly-support-base-pensioners-a7798386.html

currystar

In every election there is a huge protest vote. In 2010 it was for the Lib Dems, in 2015 it was for UKIP, in 2017 it was for Labour.

rottenborough

Monksfield said:

Scott_P said:

TonyE said:

The problem with any analysis of this being a 'Bad Tory Campaign' is that the Conservatives received a greater share of the vote than at any election in decades.

The real story is the rise of Corbynomics, free stuff for everyone, that dragged a lot of voters to his platform, and the fact that nobody thought he could win so the idea of running a negative campaign was pointless. He was the ultimate 'free hit' vote.

https://twitter.com/_hanimustafa/status/885597305314971648

Will the £400B plus of QE 'found' for the banks ever be paid back? No, it was created from thin air and will be rolled over.

No, the QE will be rolled back (eventually). The assets that QE bought (mainly bonds) will be sold back to the banks and other institutions. The real money that the banks pay for these assets will then be electronically destroyed by Bank of England. Eventually the £400b or whatever it is will no longer exist.

That's the theory anyway.

Tons of issues with this massive economic experiment and I fear there is trouble ahead.

Sean_F

rottenborough said:

Nigelb said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Mr. Eagles, actually, I'd assess the Corbyn positive/negative stats in precisely the opposite way.

May had a terrible campaign. She was seen as negative. The campaign was seen poorly.

Labour had a good campaign. Corbyn was pretty neutral overall.

Result of terrible blue campaign and great red campaign? Labour 50-60 seats behind.

It's obvious to see where Conservatives could improve. Not being shit would be the starting point. Attacking opposition policies instead of letting them get free airtime. Proposing policies that aren't designed specifically to frighten off the Conservative core vote.

Where does Labour go? I'm not saying they can't improve just that it's much harder than for the Conservatives. Not only that, whilst the Government will take an EU hit whatever happens, Corbyn can't do the hokey-cokey whilst the bills

The next result could credibly range from a blue to a red majority, but we shouldn't let assessment of the last campaign lead us to assume Corbyn/Labour are a shoo-in.

Good morning, Mr.D.

I don't think too many are assuming Corbyn is a shoo-in at the next election, but equally, I think it a bit of a mistake to rely only on the election result and extrapolate from there while positing an improved Try campaign next time round.

Judging by the polls since, things were probably still moving Labour's way so that, had the election been a week later, it's possible that the result might have been very different. Corbyn's profile has, if anything, improved further since the election, while May has looked increasingly hapless
It's not obvious how and when a new leader will take charge of the Conservatives to remedy the situation, or who that as yet unheralded paragon might be.

And I don't think your Brexit argument makes a whole lot of sense, either. Unless Brexit is seen as a great success ahead of the next election - something which appears extremely unlikely at present - any hit the government takes will be an order of magnitude larger than that which Labour is likely to take for sniping from the sidelines.

To say that I am not thrilled by the prospect of Corbyn in government would be an understatement, but it is a real prospect.

The clock is ticking. Heseltine reckons 2% of the older voters die per year. They vote massively Tory, whereas we have just seen the under 45s are Corbyn now:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/conservative-voters-dying-off-lord-michael-heseltine-tory-part-elderly-support-base-pensioners-a7798386.html

People have been saying Conservative support is dying off as long as I've been voting. In 1997, Labour led 48/29 among 25-34 year olds, but 20 years on, the same group were 43/40 Conservative.

AllyPally_Rob

currystar said:

In every election there is a huge protest vote. In 2010 it was for the Lib Dems, in 2015 it was for UKIP, in 2017 it was for Labour.

The LibDem vote went up 1% in 2010, and they lost seats compared to 2005. Think you might be confusing campaign narrative with actual results in this case.

GeoffM

Nigelb said:

freetochoose said:

IanB2 said:

freetochoose said:

So 4% of tory voters and 0% of labour voters mention Brexit but on here its ubiquitous.

What should that tell the Remoaners?

That neither side in the election actually campaigned on Brexit. Hardly news.

More to the point outside of a few weirdos on here nobody gives a fuck.

You do get that don't you - 0% of Labour voters mentioned Brexit.

Rather extraordinary how many voted in the referendum, if that's the case.
Or has everyone miraculously lost interest ?

They didn't really all vote. It was all an MI5 sting operation.

I, personally, had a bundle of voting slips delivered to my house. How else do you think there were 823 Leave votes counted in Gib?

Without MI5, Remain would have won by about 75/25.

stodge

currystar said:

In every election there is a huge protest vote. In 2010 it was for the Lib Dems, in 2015 it was for UKIP, in 2017 it was for Labour.

In every election there is an anti-Labour vote, an anti-Conservative vote, an anti-Lib Dem vote and an anti-all the above vote. These votes vary greatly in size and eventual destination.

Are you trying to suggest one day there will be a protest vote for the Conservatives ?

GeoffM

Morris_Dancer said:

Good news, everyone.

Traitor's Prize, the sequel to the highly rated Kingdom Asunder, is up for pre-order. Release date is 28 July:
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Traitors-Prize-Bloody-Crown-Trilogy-ebook/dp/B073WGRF3W/

It's a grim/mostly realistic brand of fantasy (broadly comparable to Game of Thrones but less sprawling, and released early rather than late...).

Traitor's Prize is full of treachery and betrayal, backstabbing and sly manoeuvring [not unlike a Conservative leadership election], brimming with lovely violence and battles.

I will order it the next time I win some money on your F1 tips

Casino_Royale

IanB2 said:

Casino_Royale said:

IanB2 said:

I see Balls got repeated spankings from Neil for being a poorly behaved guest on TW last night,

What did Balls do?

He did a Tim Farron and continued talking about stuff Neil didn't want to hear. And got into a shouting match with Farage. Neil doesn't take kindly to challenges to his being in charge on his own show!

Sounds like Balls let himself down showing the worst part of his personality - I thought he'd now got this under control.

Why do virtually all politicians turn out to be such disappointments?

Sean_F

kyf_100 said:

Casino_Royale said:

IanB2 said:

Jonathan said:

The 2017 campaign was remarkable. Busted forever the idea that campaigns don't matter.

Probably. Although if the YouGov model is right in indicating that the Tory lead may only have been around 4-6% before the GE was called (rising to 6-8% instantly it was called), the final 2% margin doesn't look as big a shift as the contrast between the other polls and the result apparently suggests.

The trouble with that is the local election results, and the parliamentary by elections, validated a very substantial Conservative lead.

Could it be that Corbyn was really reaching the parts of the electorate other politicians couldn't reach - the young, the disaffected non-voters etc - who therefore had no interest at all in the May locals but all came out to vote for their man in June?

Overall turnout, at 68%, wasn't especially high on June 8th. It was higher than usual among younger voters, and slightly lower than usual among older voters, which made the difference between the Conservatives winning 318 seats and winning perhaps 335.

Casino_Royale

Sean_F said:

rottenborough said:

Nigelb said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Mr. Eagles, actually, I'd assess the Corbyn positive/negative stats in precisely the opposite way.

May had a terrible campaign. She was seen as negative. The campaign was seen poorly.

Labour had a good campaign. Corbyn was pretty neutral overall.

Result of terrible blue campaign and great red campaign? Labour 50-60 seats behind.

It's obvious to see where Conservatives could improve. Not being shit would be the starting point. Attacking opposition policies instead of letting them get free airtime. Proposing policies that aren't designed specifically to frighten off the Conservative core vote.

Where does Labour go? I'm not saying they can't improve just that it's much harder than for the Conservatives. Not only that, whilst the Government will take an EU hit whatever happens, Corbyn can't do the hokey-cokey whilst

Good morning, Mr.D.

I don't think too many are assuming Corbyn is a shoo-in at the next election, but equally, I think it a bit of a mistake to rely only on the election result and extrapolate from there while positing an improved Try campaign next time round.

Judging by the polls since, things were probably still moving Labour's way so that, had the election been a week later, it's possible that the result might have been very different. Corbyn's profile has, if anything, improved further since the election, while May has looked increasingly hapless
It's not obvious how and when a new leader will take charge of the Conservatives to remedy the situation, or who that as yet unheralded paragon might be.

And I don't think your Brexit argument makes a whole lot of sense, either. Unless Brexit is seen as a great success ahead of the next election - something which appears extremely unlikely at present - any hit the government takes will be an order of magnitude larger than that which Labour is likely to take for sniping from the sidelines.

To say that I am not thrilled by the prospect of Corbyn in government would be an understatement, but it is a real prospect.

The clock is ticking. Heseltine reckons 2% of the older voters die per year. They vote massively Tory, whereas we have just seen the under 45s are Corbyn now:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/conservative-voters-dying-off-lord-michael-heseltine-tory-part-elderly-support-base-pensioners-a7798386.html

People have been saying Conservative support is dying off as long as I've been voting. In 1997, Labour led 48/29 among 25-34 year olds, but 20 years on, the same group were 43/40 Conservative.

Many of today's Corbynites will turn out to be tomorrow's Tories.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/885563406954229764

foxinsoxuk

Sean_F said:

rottenborough said:

Nigelb said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Mr. Eagles, actually, I'd assess the Corbyn positive/negative stats in precisely the opposite way.

May had a terrible campaign. She was seen as negative. The campaign was seen poorly.

Labour had a good campaign. Corbyn was pretty neutral overall.

Result of terrible blue campaign and great red campaign? Labour 50-60 seats behind.

It's obvious to see where Conservatives could improve. Not being shit would be the starting point. Attacking opposition policies instead of letting them get free airtime. Proposing policies that aren't designed specifically to frighten off the Conservative core vote.

Where does Labour go? I'm not saying they can't improve just that it's much harder than for the Conservatives. Not only that, whilst the Government will take an EU hit whatever happens, Corbyn can't do the hokey-cokey whilst the bills

The next result could credibly range from a blue to a red majority, but we shouldn't let assessment of the last campaign lead us to assume Corbyn/Labour are a shoo-in.

Good morning, Mr.D.

I don't think too many are assuming Corbyn is a shoo-in at the next election, but equally, I think it a bit of a mistake to rely only on the election result and extrapolate from there while positing an improved Try campaign next time round.

Judging by the polls

To say that I am not thrilled by the prospect of Corbyn in government would be an understatement, but it is a real prospect.

The clock is ticking. Heseltine reckons 2% of the older voters die per year. They vote massively Tory, whereas we have just seen the under 45s are Corbyn now:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/conservative-voters-dying-off-lord-michael-heseltine-tory-part-elderly-support-base-pensioners-a7798386.html

People have been saying Conservative support is dying off as long as I've been voting. In 1997, Labour led 48/29 among 25-34 year olds, but 20 years on, the same group were 43/40 Conservative.

That process (and I am in that generation) was led by people becoming established in careers with prospects, owning houses that appreciate and having money left over to invest or spend as they chose. It is rash to believe that the next generation with insecure jobs, poor access to housing, and heavy debts rather than disposeable income will follow the same trajectory.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. M, that's hardly fair!

F1: first practice is in quarter of an hour. I've backed, with tiny sums, Raikkonen for pole each way at 26, and Ricciardo for a podium at 3.5.

GeoffM

stodge said:

currystar said:

In every election there is a huge protest vote. In 2010 it was for the Lib Dems, in 2015 it was for UKIP, in 2017 it was for Labour.

In every election there is an anti-Labour vote, an anti-Conservative vote, an anti-Lib Dem vote and an anti-all the above vote. These votes vary greatly in size and eventual destination.

Are you trying to suggest one day there will be a protest vote for the Conservatives ?

Yes - for example at the end of the 1970's against post-War economic mismanagement.

foxinsoxuk

Scott_P said:

twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/885563406954229764

Not the only interesting story in the FT. Something is afoot at the Student Loans company. 70% will never pay off the debt, meaning significant writeoffs. It is sub prime loans, without a property to back it up.

https://twitter.com/jpraft/status/885606031908384768

Sean_F

foxinsoxuk said:

Sean_F said:

rottenborough said:

Nigelb said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Mr. Eagles, actually, I'd assess the Corbyn positive/negative stats in precisely the opposite way.

May had a terrible campaign. She was seen as negative. The campaign was seen poorly.

Labour had a good campaign. Corbyn was pretty neutral overall.

Result of terrible blue campaign and great red campaign? Labour 50-60 seats behind.

It's obvious to see where Conservatives could improve. Not being shit would be the starting point. Attacking opposition policies instead of letting them get free airtime. Proposing policies that aren't designed specifically to frighten off the Conservative core vote.

Where does Labour go? I'm not saying they can't improve just that it's much harder than for the Conservatives. Not only that, whilst the Government will take an EU hit whatever happens, Corbyn can't do the hokey-cokey whilst the bills

The next result could credibly range from a blue to a red majority, but we shouldn't let assessment of the last campaign lead us to assume Corbyn/Labour are a shoo-in.

Good morning, Mr.D.

I don't think too many are assuming Corbyn is a shoo-in at the next election, but equally, I think it a bit of a mistake to rely only on the election result and extrapolate from there while positing an improved Try campaign next time round.

Judging by the polls

To say that I am not thrilled by the prospect of Corbyn in government would be an understatement, but it is a real prospect.

The clock is ticking. Heseltine reckons 2% of the older voters die per year. They vote massively Tory, whereas we have just seen the under 45s are Corbyn now:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/conservative-voters-dying-off-lord-michael-heseltine-tory-part-elderly-support-base-pensioners-a7798386.html

People have been saying Conservative support is dying off as long as I've been voting. In 1997, Labour led 48/29 among 25-34 year olds, but 20 years on, the same group were 43/40 Conservative.

That process (and I am in that generation) was led by people becoming established in careers with prospects, owning houses that appreciate and having money left over to invest or spend as they chose. It is rash to believe that the next generation with insecure jobs, poor access to housing, and heavy debts rather than disposeable income will follow the same trajectory.

Maybe yes, maybe no. Inability to afford housing is more of a London problem than a countrywide problem. Plenty of people still will see their circumstances improve, as they get older.

fitalass

'That people also recall Mrs May not attending the debate probably ensures the next Tory leader won’t be chickening out of the debates at the next general election.'

And yet in the last two GE's neither Cameron or May attended 'the debate' and both were re-elected as PM.... I suspect that the next Tory Leader will like their predecessors consider the risks and their position in the polls before deciding to participate in any political debates dictated by the TV media rather than their advisors...

The fact that those polled have a very 'media orientated' memory of the last GE is no surprise. Its now up to the Theresa May and her Government to prove the media wrong, and how long before Corbyn and his cronies prove the electorate were right in not electing them to Government despite the media behaving as if they had won?!

TOPPING

Let's nail the foxhunting thing once and for all. Hunting people provide a large number of footsoldiers for the Cons throughout the country, delivering leaflets, canvassing, knocking up, etc.

As per previous GE campaigns (since 2005), it is Cons policy to get these people out on the street to help. To do this, something has to be done about repeal of the Hunting Act.

No one was more surprised than me to see a commitment to a free vote on repeal pre-announced. Previously there has been no such explicit announcement. But it was made to get those hunting people out on the street.

It is also a mark of the naivety/idiocy/hubris of the campaign first that they thought they could make the commitment bold and brash with no fallout, and then, critically, that once they had got this part on track, they then proceeded to show fuck all urgency in most of the remainder of the campaign in terms of usual Cons activists, effort and activity.

foxinsoxuk

Pulpstar said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Scott_P said:

@BBCNormanS: Quitting single market will impoverish millions of working people - @Andrew_Adonis

@BBCNormanS: Labour will end up backing continued membership of single market - @Andrew_Adonis @BBCr4today

Out of interest, who will listen to Adonis?

Bill Rammell (former Labour MP, now Vice Chancellor of Uni of Bedfordshire) was left defending tuition fees against its architect.

I imagine that Bill is fuming.

Momentum hate Adonis anyhow. New Labour hate him for being a turncoat.

What influence do you think Adonis has now? His former friends are left defending his former policy. His new friends despise him.

Least he's kept himself in shape:

https://twitter.com/Pulpstar/status/885760231761997826

That is David, not Adonis, surely?

dyedwoolie

Sean_F said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Sean_F said:

rottenborough said:

Nigelb said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Mr. Eagles, actually, I'd assess the Corbyn positive/negative stats in precisely the opposite way.

May had a terrible campaign. She was seen as negative. The campaign was seen poorly.

Labour had a good campaign. Corbyn was pretty neutral overall.

Result of terrible blue campaign and great red campaign? Labour 50-60 seats behind.

It's
Where does Labour go? I'm not saying they can't improve just that it's much harder than for the Conservatives. Not only that, whilst the Government will take an EU hit whatever happens, Corbyn can't do the hokey-cokey whilst the bills

The next result could credibly range from a blue to a red majority, but we shouldn't let assessment of the last campaign lead us to assume Corbyn/Labour are a shoo-in.

Good morning, Mr.D.

I don't think too many are assuming Corbyn is a shoo-in at the next election, but equally, I think it a bit of a mistake to rely only on the election result and extrapolate from there while positing an improved Try campaign next time round.

Judging by the polls

To say that I am not thrilled by the prospect of Corbyn in government would be an understatement, but it is a real prospect.

The clock is ticking. Heseltine reckons 2% of the older voters die per year. They vote massively Tory, whereas we have just seen the under 45s are Corbyn now:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/conservative-voters-dying-off-lord-michael-heseltine-tory-part-elderly-support-base-pensioners-a7798386.html

People have been saying Conservative support is dying off as long as I've been voting. In 1997, Labour led 48/29 among 25-34 year olds, but 20 years on, the same group were 43/40 Conservative.

That process (and I am in that generation) was led by people becoming established in careers with prospects, owning houses that appreciate and having money left over to invest or spend as they chose. It is rash to believe that the next generation with insecure jobs, poor access to housing, and heavy debts rather than disposeable income will follow the same trajectory.

Maybe yes, maybe no. Inability to afford housing is more of a London problem than a countrywide problem. Plenty of people still will see their circumstances improve, as they get older.

The problem facing them is people's circumstances in the current climate improve despite the Tories (fiscal restraint etc) not because of them (right to buy etc)

DecrepitJohnL

CarlottaVance said:

But we haven't left yet

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/brexit-trading-slump-blamed-for-closure-of-gastropub-loved-by-nigella-lawson-a3586996.html

The gastropubs' closures are blamed on Brexit, lower takings, 50% rent rises and the last straw was the election result, so I think we can all agree it is Theresa May's fault.

IanB2

TOPPING said:

Let's nail the foxhunting thing once and for all. Hunting people provide a large number of footsoldiers for the Cons throughout the country, delivering leaflets, canvassing, knocking up, etc.

As per previous GE campaigns (since 2005), it is Cons policy to get these people out on the street to help. To do this, something has to be done about repeal of the Hunting Act.

No one was more surprised than me to see a commitment to a free vote on repeal pre-announced. Previously there has been no such explicit announcement. But it was made to get those hunting people out on the street.

It is also a mark of the naivety/idiocy/hubris of the campaign first that they thought they could make the commitment bold and brash with no fallout, and then, critically, that once they had got this part on track, they then proceeded to show fuck all urgency in most of the remainder of the campaign in terms of usual Cons activists, effort and activity.

Nailing it once and for all is what the 2017 GE has just done. It ain't coming back, ever.

TheScreamingEagles

fitalass said:

'That people also recall Mrs May not attending the debate probably ensures the next Tory leader won’t be chickening out of the debates at the next general election.'

And yet in the last two GE's neither Cameron or May attended 'the debate' and both were re-elected as PM.... I suspect that the next Tory Leader will like their predecessors consider the risks and their position in the polls before deciding to participate in any political debates dictated by the TV media rather than their advisors...

The fact that those polled have a very 'media orientated' memory of the last GE is no surprise. Its now up to the Theresa May and her Government to prove the media wrong, and how long before Corbyn and his cronies prove the electorate were right in not electing them to Government despite the media behaving as if they had won?!

Cameron attended the seven way debate in 2015, in 2017 Mrs May didn't and sent Amber Rudd instead.

foxinsoxuk

Sean_F said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Sean_F said:

rottenborough said:

Nigelb said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Mr. Eagles, actually, I'd assess the Corbyn positive/negative stats in precisely the opposite way.

May had a terrible campaign. She was seen as negative. The campaign was seen poorly.

Labour had a good campaign. Corbyn was pretty neutral overall.

Result of terrible blue campaign and great red campaign? Labour 50-60 seats behind.

It's obvious to see where Conservatives could improve. Not being shit would be the starting point. Attacking opposition policies instead of letting them get free airtime. Proposing policies that aren't designed specifically to frighten off the Conservative core vote.

Where does Labour go? I'm not saying they can't improve just that it's much harder than for the Conservatives. Not only that, whilst the Government will take an EU hit whatever happens, Corbyn can't do the hokey-cokey whilst the bills

The next result could credibly range from a blue to a red majority, but we shouldn't let assessment of the last campaign lead us to assume Corbyn/Labour are a shoo-in.

Good morning, Mr.D.

I don't think too many are assuming Corbyn is a shoo-in at the next election, but equally, I think it a bit of a mistake to rely only on the election result and extrapolate from there while positing an improved Try campaign next time round.

Judging by the polls

To say that I am not thrilled by the prospect of Corbyn in government would be an understatement, but it is a real prospect.

The clock is ticking. Heseltine reckons 2% of the older voters die per year. They vote massively Tory, whereas we have just seen the under 45s are Corbyn now:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/conservative-voters-dying-off-lord-michael-heseltine-tory-part-elderly-support-base-pensioners-a7798386.html

People have been saying Conservative support is dying off as long as I've been voting. In 1997, Labour led 48/29 among 25-34 year olds, but 20 years on, the same group were 43/40 Conservative.

That process (and I

Maybe yes, maybe no. Inability to afford housing is more of a London problem than a countrywide problem. Plenty of people still will see their circumstances improve, as they get older.

Insecure jobs, falling real wages and large debts are still going to be issues, even in places where housing costs are more reasonable.

Leicester is second bottom (Nottingham is bottom) in disposeable income per capita, for example. These people do not see much benefit from voting Tory.

Sean_F

DecrepitJohnL said:

CarlottaVance said:

But we haven't left yet

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/brexit-trading-slump-blamed-for-closure-of-gastropub-loved-by-nigella-lawson-a3586996.html

The gastropubs' closures are blamed on Brexit, lower takings, 50% rent rises and the last straw was the election result, so I think we can all agree it is Theresa May's fault.

Or it may have been a badly run business.

IanB2

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

rottenborough said:

Nigelb said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

.

Result of terrible blue campaign and great red campaign? Labour 50-60 seats behind.

It's obvious to see where Conservatives could improve. Not being shit would be the starting point. Attacking opposition policies instead of letting them get free airtime. Proposing policies that aren't designed specifically to frighten off the Conservative core vote.

Where does Labour go? I'm not saying they can't improve just that it's much harder than for the Conservatives. Not only that, whilst the Government will take an EU hit whatever happens, Corbyn can't do the hokey-cokey whilst

Good morning, Mr.D.

I don't think too many are assuming Corbyn is a shoo-in at the next election, but equally, I think it a bit of a mistake to rely only on the election result and extrapolate from there while positing an improved Try campaign next time round.

Judging by the polls since, things were probably still moving Labour's way so that, had the election been a week later, it's possible that the result might have been very different. Corbyn's profile has, if anything, improved further since the election, while May has looked increasingly hapless
It's not obvious how and when a new leader will take charge of the Conservatives to remedy the situation, or who that as yet unheralded paragon might be.

And I don't think your Brexit argument makes a whole lot of sense, either. Unless Brexit is seen as a great success ahead of the next election - something which appears extremely unlikely at present - any hit the government takes will be an order of magnitude larger than that which Labour is likely to take for sniping from the sidelines.

To say that I am not thrilled by the prospect of Corbyn in government would be an understatement, but it is a real prospect.

The clock is ticking. Heseltine reckons 2% of the older voters die per year. They vote massively Tory, whereas we have just seen the under 45s are Corbyn now:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/conservative-voters-dying-off-lord-michael-heseltine-tory-part-elderly-support-base-pensioners-a7798386.html

People have been saying Conservative support is dying off as long as I've been voting. In 1997, Labour led 48/29 among 25-34 year olds, but 20 years on, the same group were 43/40 Conservative.

Many of today's Corbynites will turn out to be tomorrow's Tories.

Not if levels of owner occupation continue to sink and the numbers of dodgy BTL landlords continues to rise, they won't.

TOPPING

IanB2 said:

TOPPING said:

Let's nail the foxhunting thing once and for all. Hunting people provide a large number of footsoldiers for the Cons throughout the country, delivering leaflets, canvassing, knocking up, etc.

As per previous GE campaigns (since 2005), it is Cons policy to get these people out on the street to help. To do this, something has to be done about repeal of the Hunting Act.

No one was more surprised than me to see a commitment to a free vote on repeal pre-announced. Previously there has been no such explicit announcement. But it was made to get those hunting people out on the street.

It is also a mark of the naivety/idiocy/hubris of the campaign first that they thought they could make the commitment bold and brash with no fallout, and then, critically, that once they had got this part on track, they then proceeded to show fuck all urgency in most of the remainder of the campaign in terms of usual Cons activists, effort and activity.

Nailing it once and for all is what the 2017 GE has just done. It ain't coming back, ever.

I think you are right; which also meets with agreement from a decent corpus of opinion within the hunting community.

tlg86

CarlottaVance said:

But we haven't left yet

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/brexit-trading-slump-blamed-for-closure-of-gastropub-loved-by-nigella-lawson-a3586996.html

Great comment BTL:

It was the editor of this paper pushing up business rates affecting hundreds of businesses. What's he going to do next . Blame the cuts he made to welfare benefits on Brexit . Maybe it was a rubbish pub ?

Pubs have been closing for years, but the good ones seem to keep going somehow.

dyedwoolie

DecrepitJohnL said:

CarlottaVance said:

But we haven't left yet

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/brexit-trading-slump-blamed-for-closure-of-gastropub-loved-by-nigella-lawson-a3586996.html

The gastropubs' closures are blamed on Brexit, lower takings, 50% rent rises and the last straw was the election result, so I think we can all agree it is Theresa May's fault.

The pub industry is in fatal decline. It goes back to the changes in the late 80s, coupled now with cheap supermarket booze. The pub companies that replaced the old breweries are further killing the industry with their tied products policies and idiotic rents. The only way to make money in a pub now is to own the freehold or be a chain like Wetherspoons with managers rather than landlords and bulk purchase power. Community pubs are finished in the main.

foxinsoxuk

TheScreamingEagles said:

fitalass said:

'That people also recall Mrs May not attending the debate probably ensures the next Tory leader won’t be chickening out of the debates at the next general election.'

And yet in the last two GE's neither Cameron or May attended 'the debate' and both were re-elected as PM.... I suspect that the next Tory Leader will like their predecessors consider the risks and their position in the polls before deciding to participate in any political debates dictated by the TV media rather than their advisors...

The fact that those polled have a very 'media orientated' memory of the last GE is no surprise. Its now up to the Theresa May and her Government to prove the media wrong, and how long before Corbyn and his cronies prove the electorate were right in not electing them to Government despite the media behaving as if they had won?!

Cameron attended the seven way debate in 2015, in 2017 Mrs May didn't and sent Amber Rudd instead.

Who did pretty well, despite losing her father days before.

Rudd is about the only one of the senior Tory MP's that properly listens to people, then actually answers the question. If the Tories want to recover a connection with the people, then they should elect her leader. Her small majority is not that big of a problem, in that if she wins seats it would become safer, and if she loses seats she is toast anyway. A small majority concentrates the mind.

Roger

Banksy spots the cracks

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C_OrOmvXsAAs3Lw.jpg