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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If or when Theresa May is replaced her successor shouldn’t hold a snap election (or even think about it)
The last ten years in British politics have been the most dramatic ten years I can recall in peace time. We’ve had, inter alia, the great financial crisis, the coalition government, the Scottish Independence referendum, the SNP tsunami, the Lib Dem wipe out of 2015, which saw David Cameron become the only Tory to win a majority in the last 25 years, the rise of Corbyn, and of course Brexit.
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BTW - Love the star wars reference!
http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/the-correct-punctuation-of-donald-trump-jrs-name/amp
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-40581643
Iain Martin in The Times screams for Theresa May to go and go soon. I think just about everyone agrees (including probably La May herself) and on that basis, Coral's 5/2 against her departing this year looks like very fair value to me.
DYOR!
Unsurprisingly, Ladbrokes offer the same bet.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40581912
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/07/12/theresa-mays-government-could-come-apart-like-chocolate-orange/
This is a rather extraordinary intervention.
Going back to paying our student nurses a small wage to renumerate their far wider and longer prescence on the wards as part of the ward rotas is the answer. That and going back to providing very cheap student nurse accomadation will almost instantly relieve the current nursing shortages on our wards while providing world class hands on training for our future nurses. Problem solved.
It would also remove a now automatic negative Brexit story, what is not to like?
Can any government survive with this level of incompetence?
The one thing worse for an incoming unelected PM than a snap election, is a snap election forced by Parliament.
I don't see the finances as being the biggest threat to health care in the UK, so much as recruitment and retention.
The problem is that Brexit is built on several very false premises. One of them is that we can disconnect and everything will carry on as before. We want to continue to trade with Europe, the continent we are part of, keep our international nuclear processes going, continue to fly through open skies and so on and so on. The EU covers all this through membership and we are going back to them and saying, we don't want your membership but please replicate everything just for us and by the way we won't accept the jurisdiction of your courts, application of your laws and any other conditions you impose on us as part of the agreement.
The EU hasn't decided what it wants to do about membership. They are a membership organisation and want to keep it that way. Any associate relationship will have to be much less than full membership. They learnt their lesson on that with Brexit. In the meantime we will be the ones scrabbling to sort something out.
"Boris, though, has had it even worse than most frontrunners. His problem is that there are not one but four groups who have it in for him. The Cameron/Osborne gang will never forgive him for ending the career of both their king and their dauphin, and they are determined to stop him claiming the crown. Their desire for vengeance blinds them to the fact his liberal Toryism means he is closer to the Cameron project than nearly any of the other contenders.
"The second lot are the Tory Europhiles who blame Boris for the referendum result. Then come the May ultras, who regarded Boris as the most immediate threat and so put him in the frame for leadership in order to make him an obvious target. Then there are the men of government who are offended by his unconventional path to one of the great offices of state; I am told that Philip Hammond is ‘obsessed by Boris’. It is little wonder that even the Foreign Secretary’s friends have been reduced to declaring that ‘every-one’s out for Boris’."
https://www.spectator.co.uk/2017/07/everyones-out-for-boris/
"He has taken to waking up at 5.30 a.m. to read the papers online and, too often, also the angry comments about him, a dispiriting experience for anyone."
p.s. Good Morning, Boris, you idiot!
An outcome like that and the Tories are out of power for many years.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-40580196
The least worst option increasingly looks like humiliating climbdown, hopefully preceded by an apology to the people of Britain, ideally from Boris.
If the UK navigates a successful Brexit that allows us to thrive outside EU, the biggest loser is the EU.
No, it was a very stable government, who has resolved a lot of problems. Remember our Labour minister : 'I'm sorry, but there is no money anymore.....'. Tories are cutting. Labour is spending. If the Tories continue to shout like Mr Boris Johnson, the loser will be the UK, and not the EU. That will be a fact. Negociations, you are doing on a quiet way, not by shouting on a megaphone !
1. Who stands to get the most financial advantage out of leaving, after all most things are greed led
2. What benefits will the average person in the street get out of leaving
One non-partisan problem is that because Brexit has its own Ministry, other Departments feel that it's not their primary problem. They are doing research on how Brexit will affect them, but they are waiting to take their lead from Davis's department, whchisn't yet ready to lead in any direction.
At least we can all agree they've not been boring.
I can't see who the replacement would be. The trouble is there's no-one obvious to replace her, there isn't time to indulge in a leadership contest and the Brexit clock is ticking.
Much like Mrs May will, the coalition proved more durable - though I doubt she'll last 5 years.
If only someone ("genius" (sic) to his dwindling band of admirers) hadn't set about doing over the junior partners in the coalition we'd have had Coalition II, no referendum and no BREXIT.....
http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/ausland/macron-deutschland-muss-investitionen-in-europa-wiederbeleben-15103946.html
Cameron and Osborne called the referendum and lost it, but in TSE world theyre blameless
the worst government in living memory was Callaghan, followed by Gordon Brown
What has this govt done (in its few weeks) that is so awful?
If this is the worst govt in living memory which is the best?
Why the hell would you be enjoying it ?
It's quite hard to see how that reversal might realistically happen - however much it should - and there is a very real possibility of the immiseration of the entire UK.
6 months ago you were saying the opposition was the worst ever and then came the election
it would help if people on this board could occasionally spend some time in the real world
the big news is Andy Murray is out in case you missed it
The lesson isn't 'don't hold a snap election'. It's 'don't run the worst campaign in history'.
If May had been even underwhelming but competent she'd have a 60 seat majority.
F1: Kubica's completed another test.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/40587621
Although I don't think it's likely - a colleague saw him a few days ago and he's very happy and relaxed
“People within the organisation can feel very inhibited and fearful, particularly if there is an atmosphere of blame.
“Anyone who has worked in CCHQ during the past few months will recognise some or all of these characteristics.”
There is more.See Politics Home.The rudderless Tory party is simply falling apart at the seams and as Hezza said there's an annual depreciation via death of the oldies of 2% and a corresponding 2% increase in the 18s on the register for the 1st time.The door is open for 16 year olds voting too and this campaign is not going away.
This is terrible news for the blue team and add the total data cock-up within its electoral machine,it is going the way of the Dodo.Don't forget the failure of the daily right wing lie machine in the press too.
Any objective observer can only agree with Mr Jenkin.
The government keeps figures on property transactions, so I guess have a look at these in another quarter's time:
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/619629/UK_Tables_Jun_2017__cir_.pdf
At a time when that is an indulgence the nation can't afford.
Whether or not it is the worst in living memory will be determined in the next couple of years.
I suspect that when you say drift you really mean it hasn't spent borrowed money
As are your 'suspicions'.
When the consequences of that are properly felt then there will be profound effects politically.
But do you feel there is any such agenda, rather than just hopelessly stumbling on from day to day hoping something will turn up?
The no increases in taxation promises of 2015 stopping the proposed NI changes of 2017.
The need to reduce the long term damage triple lock pensions are doing was an extra reason - that was yet another promise from Cameron and Osborne.
To have even been born during the 1906-1910 Liberal government you would now need to be at least 107, never mind needing to be probably at least eight or nine years old during it to have had any memory of it.
Not sure who is currently the oldest living Brit - may just be possible that 1906 government is in living memory. Be interesting to find out.
I'm not in any way defending this govt simply pointing out that "drifting" whether accidentally or not, is a good thing, it means they're not interfering.
Mostly, he was a charming salesman who was incompetent and cared about headlines not governing.
That said, steps forward happened on civil partnership, and he did continue the good work of Major on Northern Ireland peace.
Edited extra bit: there was prolonged peace and prosperity under Antoninus Pius, but now hardly anybody even remembers his name. Whereas that murderous lunatic Commodus is far better-known.