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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New PB/Polling Matters podcast: Support for a 2nd Brexit vote

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  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    stodge said:


    "The War" has been this country's biggest hobgoblin for decades. It has held us back because we believed that we were mega-special because "We won the war". ...

    From that perspective, we did not win the war, Hitler threw it away.

    In my view, there were three pivotal moments only one of which was relevant to Britain:

    1) The choice of Churchill over Halifax in May 1940 meant a negotiated peace between London and Berlin was impossible and Hitler's only option was the military subjugation of Britain by invasion for which he lacked the means (and to an extent, the will).

    2) The Soviet realisation Japan would attack south and east rather than north and west in 1941 - this allowed Zhukov to move the Siberian troops west and halt the German drive on Moscow. This in return meant a swift defeat of the USSR was impossible and the growing power of Russian industry combined with its resources of manpower made a German victory almost inconceivable.

    3) Hitler's declaration of war on the United States - the Pearl Harbor attack brought the US into conflict with the Japanese Empire but did not mean a war with Germany and it could have been the German-American relationship might have been akin to the Soviet-Japanese from 1941 to 1945. By declaring war, it empowered Roosevelt to send American troops, aircraft and logistical support to Britain which ensured that country's survival and made the eventual liberation of Europe inevitable.

    That's my fourpenceworth. Any other thoughts ?

    Very interesting. Out of interest, when Churchill took over from Chamberlain as PM did he also become leader of the Conservative party at the same time?

    Good job a leadership contest wasn't required!
    No, Chamberlain remained as Conservative leader until his diagnosis of terminal cancer in October.

    There's an interesting 'what if' there - what if Chamberlain dies a year / two years / three years earlier.
    Thanks.

    Of course there are lots of interesting 'what-if' moments in 1940-41. C. J. Samsome's novel Dominion is chillingly enjoyable, splitting from reality at the point that Halifax rather than Churchill becomes PM on 10 May 1940, with dire consequences for Britain and the rest of Europe.
    Yes! Read that in 48 hours. Cracking Winter read, especially if you live in London.

    Made me realise that the bus route numbers haven't changed a bit!
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    stodge said:

    To me, we either take the European option in full - surrender Sterling, immigration control and set ourselves on a probably irrevocable path to full political and fiscal union or we remain outside making our own way.

    I have to agree. I think we need to develop a vision of a Federal Europe and start pushing for that. I think that the last 5 or 10 years of politics have shown our politicians to be self-obsessed 3rd raters. Some form of external control may be a necessity to curb their worst excesses.

    No thanks. The people should be in charge, not some unelected eurocrat.
    Well then, as part of a Federal Europe, restructure to make the EU Parliament the governing body with the appointed bureaucrats doing Parliament's bidding. Just like we do in the UK.
    Becoming part of a federal Europe? I can see that going down well in the country.
    Not at the moment because we still have this delusion that we are size of Australia with the economic clout of the USA.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    The wonderful British people, in all their glory, equal at the ballot box, decided that we'll be making our own way, thank you very much.

    37% of "The wonderful British people, in all their glory, equal at the ballot box, decided that we'll be making our own way". The remaining 63% voted either to remain or could not be bothered to get off their backsides and do something.

    It was hardly a ringing endorsement.
    So instead 0% of them should get to choose and the unelected do everything?

    Riiiiight.
    Your words, not mine.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    The wonderful British people, in all their glory, equal at the ballot box, decided that we'll be making our own way, thank you very much.

    37% of "The wonderful British people, in all their glory, equal at the ballot box, decided that we'll be making our own way". The remaining 63% voted either to remain or could not be bothered to get off their backsides and do something.

    It was hardly a ringing endorsement.
    So instead 0% of them should get to choose and the unelected do everything?

    Riiiiight.
    Your words, not mine.
    Disowning 'Some form of external control may be a necessity to curb their worst excesses.' already?

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,381

    Mortimer said:

    The wonderful British people, in all their glory, equal at the ballot box, decided that we'll be making our own way, thank you very much.

    37% of "The wonderful British people, in all their glory, equal at the ballot box, decided that we'll be making our own way". The remaining 63% voted either to remain or could not be bothered to get off their backsides and do something.

    It was hardly a ringing endorsement.
    35% of "The wonderful British people, in all their glory, equal at the ballot box, decided that we'll be minions of the EU". The remaining 65% voted either to leave or could not be bothered to get off their backsides and do something.

    It was hardly a ringing endorsement.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    RobD said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    I can't WAIT for the first day we're a sovereign nation again. Out of ECJ jurisdiction. Out of the stifling and protectionist single market and the ROW-trade constraining customs union.

    Not just because of the manifold benefits it will present for the medium and long term future of this independent nation, but because it will finally wipe the smile off the 'Remain will win, oh we'll have a second referendum, nah we'll have to remain in-in-all-but-name, yeh we'll HAVE to be in Euratom' refuseniks.

    Bless, even David Davis said we were a sovereign nation whilst we were members of the EU.
    Had you gone to a decent University you'd see the error you made becoming a fervent remainer. How many PMs have you guys had, again?

    :)
    We've not had any PMs as crap as the Oxford Librarian.
    Even your fave went to Oxford....
    And he overcame that disadvantage to become the greatest PM of this century.
    Thatcher's a bloke? :o
    Thatcher was not PM in this century, just Blair, Brown, Cameron and May.

    Not a very inspired bunch, and even I would rate Dave top.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345
    RobD said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    I can't WAIT for the first day we're a sovereign nation again. Out of ECJ jurisdiction. Out of the stifling and protectionist single market and the ROW-trade constraining customs union.

    Not just because of the manifold benefits it will present for the medium and long term future of this independent nation, but because it will finally wipe the smile off the 'Remain will win, oh we'll have a second referendum, nah we'll have to remain in-in-all-but-name, yeh we'll HAVE to be in Euratom' refuseniks.

    Bless, even David Davis said we were a sovereign nation whilst we were members of the EU.
    Had you gone to a decent University you'd see the error you made becoming a fervent remainer. How many PMs have you guys had, again?

    :)
    We've not had any PMs as crap as the Oxford Librarian.
    Even your fave went to Oxford....
    And he overcame that disadvantage to become the greatest PM of this century.
    Thatcher's a bloke? :o
    Another Brexiteer who is mistakenly living in the wrong century.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    RobD said:

    Mortimer said:

    The wonderful British people, in all their glory, equal at the ballot box, decided that we'll be making our own way, thank you very much.

    37% of "The wonderful British people, in all their glory, equal at the ballot box, decided that we'll be making our own way". The remaining 63% voted either to remain or could not be bothered to get off their backsides and do something.

    It was hardly a ringing endorsement.
    Even less of a ringing endorsement of remaining :smiley:
    True, but Remaining was the status quo. To change it should have had a higher requirement than less than 2/5ths of the electorate. If the Leave vote had been 50% + 1 of the electorate rather than those voting then your point would be unassailable.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    Mortimer said:

    stodge said:


    "The War" has been this country's biggest hobgoblin for decades. It has held us back because we believed that we were mega-special because "We won the war". ...

    From that perspective, we did not win the war, Hitler threw it away.

    In my view, there were three pivotal moments only one of which was relevant to Britain:

    1) The choice of Churchill over Halifax in May 1940 meant a negotiated peace between London and Berlin was impossible and Hitler's only option was the military subjugation of Britain by invasion for which he lacked the means (and to an extent, the will).

    2) The Soviet realisation Japan would attack south and east rather than north and west in 1941 - this allowed Zhukov to move the Siberian troops west and halt the German drive on Moscow. This in return meant a swift defeat of the USSR was impossible and the growing power of Russian industry combined with its resources of manpower made a German victory almost inconceivable.

    3) Hitler's declaration of war on the United States - the Pearl Harbor attack brought the US into conflict with the Japanese Empire but did not mean a war with Germany and it could have been the German-American relationship might have been akin to the Soviet-Japanese from 1941 to 1945. By declaring war, it empowered Roosevelt to send American troops, aircraft and logistical support to Britain which ensured that country's survival and made the eventual liberation of Europe inevitable.

    That's my fourpenceworth. Any other thoughts ?

    Very interesting. Out of interest, when Churchill took over from Chamberlain as PM did he also become leader of the Conservative party at the same time?

    Good job a leadership contest wasn't required!
    No, Chamberlain remained as Conservative leader until his diagnosis of terminal cancer in October.

    There's an interesting 'what if' there - what if Chamberlain dies a year / two years / three years earlier.
    Thanks.

    Of course there are lots of interesting 'what-if' moments in 1940-41. C. J. Samsome's novel Dominion is chillingly enjoyable, splitting from reality at the point that Halifax rather than Churchill becomes PM on 10 May 1940, with dire consequences for Britain and the rest of Europe.
    Yes! Read that in 48 hours. Cracking Winter read, especially if you live in London.

    Made me realise that the bus route numbers haven't changed a bit!
    Fortunately the smogs have disappeared though!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    stodge said:

    To me, we either take the European option in full - surrender Sterling, immigration control and set ourselves on a probably irrevocable path to full political and fiscal union or we remain outside making our own way.

    I have to agree. I think we need to develop a vision of a Federal Europe and start pushing for that. I think that the last 5 or 10 years of politics have shown our politicians to be self-obsessed 3rd raters. Some form of external control may be a necessity to curb their worst excesses.

    No thanks. The people should be in charge, not some unelected eurocrat.
    Well then, as part of a Federal Europe, restructure to make the EU Parliament the governing body with the appointed bureaucrats doing Parliament's bidding. Just like we do in the UK.
    Becoming part of a federal Europe? I can see that going down well in the country.
    Not at the moment because we still have this delusion that we are size of Australia with the economic clout of the USA.
    We do? Wasn't there a poll on a question about Britain's influence in the world, and we see ourselves as others see us (i.e. no presumption of exceptionalism)?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    stodge said:

    To me, we either take the European option in full - surrender Sterling, immigration control and set ourselves on a probably irrevocable path to full political and fiscal union or we remain outside making our own way.

    I have to agree. I think we need to develop a vision of a Federal Europe and start pushing for that. I think that the last 5 or 10 years of politics have shown our politicians to be self-obsessed 3rd raters. Some form of external control may be a necessity to curb their worst excesses.

    No thanks. The people should be in charge, not some unelected eurocrat.
    Well then, as part of a Federal Europe, restructure to make the EU Parliament the governing body with the appointed bureaucrats doing Parliament's bidding. Just like we do in the UK.
    Becoming part of a federal Europe? I can see that going down well in the country.
    Not at the moment because we still have this delusion that we are size of Australia with the economic clout of the USA.
    We do? Wasn't there a poll on a question about Britain's influence in the world, and we see ourselves as others see us (i.e. no presumption of exceptionalism)?
    Questioning remainer logic with stats?!

    That'll never do young Rob, sir! Back of the queue...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142

    RobD said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    I can't WAIT for the first day we're a sovereign nation again. Out of ECJ jurisdiction. Out of the stifling and protectionist single market and the ROW-trade constraining customs union.

    Not just because of the manifold benefits it will present for the medium and long term future of this independent nation, but because it will finally wipe the smile off the 'Remain will win, oh we'll have a second referendum, nah we'll have to remain in-in-all-but-name, yeh we'll HAVE to be in Euratom' refuseniks.

    Bless, even David Davis said we were a sovereign nation whilst we were members of the EU.
    Had you gone to a decent University you'd see the error you made becoming a fervent remainer. How many PMs have you guys had, again?

    :)
    We've not had any PMs as crap as the Oxford Librarian.
    Even your fave went to Oxford....
    And he overcame that disadvantage to become the greatest PM of this century.
    Thatcher's a bloke? :o
    Another Brexiteer who is mistakenly living in the wrong century.
    LOL. Good point. :D
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,924
    Some interesting data on the changing number of public sector employees by industry (all numbers in thousands):

    Military
    Mar 2010 199
    Mar 2015 161
    Mar 2017 157

    Police
    Mar 2010 295
    Mar 2015 255
    Mar 2017 241

    Education
    Mar 2010 1,670
    Mar 2015 1,516
    May 2017 1,521

    NHS
    Mar 2010 1,559
    Mar 2015 1,545
    Mar 2017 1,604

    Other health and social work
    Mar 2010 391
    Mar 2015 295
    Mar 2017 261

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/datasets/summaryoflabourmarketstatistics

    Remember it was social care and security which caused the government difficulties in the election while the NHS played a much more minor role than normal.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849

    RobD said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    I can't WAIT for the first day we're a sovereign nation again. Out of ECJ jurisdiction. Out of the stifling and protectionist single market and the ROW-trade constraining customs union.

    Not just because of the manifold benefits it will present for the medium and long term future of this independent nation, but because it will finally wipe the smile off the 'Remain will win, oh we'll have a second referendum, nah we'll have to remain in-in-all-but-name, yeh we'll HAVE to be in Euratom' refuseniks.

    Bless, even David Davis said we were a sovereign nation whilst we were members of the EU.
    Had you gone to a decent University you'd see the error you made becoming a fervent remainer. How many PMs have you guys had, again?

    :)
    We've not had any PMs as crap as the Oxford Librarian.
    Even your fave went to Oxford....
    And he overcame that disadvantage to become the greatest PM of this century.
    Thatcher's a bloke? :o
    Thatcher was not PM in this century, just Blair, Brown, Cameron and May.

    Not a very inspired bunch, and even I would rate Dave top.
    Blair was clearly top of those four, although he screwed-up royally over Iraq. Dave's cock-up over the EU will have much longer lasting adverse consequences for this country.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    The wonderful British people, in all their glory, equal at the ballot box, decided that we'll be making our own way, thank you very much.

    37% of "The wonderful British people, in all their glory, equal at the ballot box, decided that we'll be making our own way". The remaining 63% voted either to remain or could not be bothered to get off their backsides and do something.

    It was hardly a ringing endorsement.
    So instead 0% of them should get to choose and the unelected do everything?

    Riiiiight.
    Your words, not mine.
    Disowning 'Some form of external control may be a necessity to curb their worst excesses.' already?

    No. I said that bit about "external control"

    I never mentioned 0% - you said that.

    We had "external control" and we still had our own govts who were accountable to us and the "external control" was not exactly onerous. Ensuring people's rights and that water quality was better than when we joined and that people should not be worked to death in sweatshops, etc, etc, was hardly a bad thing.

    Are you really postulating that you want total sovreign control so that we can return to filthy beaches, less rights, poorer working conditions and Labour being able to nationalise everything?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142
    calum said:

    twitter.com/TheScotsman/status/885254062043787264

    Scotland benefiting from the Long Term Economic Plan.

    (bet you thought you'd never hear that again...)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    The wonderful British people, in all their glory, equal at the ballot box, decided that we'll be making our own way, thank you very much.

    37% of "The wonderful British people, in all their glory, equal at the ballot box, decided that we'll be making our own way". The remaining 63% voted either to remain or could not be bothered to get off their backsides and do something.

    It was hardly a ringing endorsement.
    So instead 0% of them should get to choose and the unelected do everything?

    Riiiiight.
    Your words, not mine.
    Disowning 'Some form of external control may be a necessity to curb their worst excesses.' already?

    No. I said that bit about "external control"

    I never mentioned 0% - you said that.

    We had "external control" and we still had our own govts who were accountable to us and the "external control" was not exactly onerous. Ensuring people's rights and that water quality was better than when we joined and that people should not be worked to death in sweatshops, etc, etc, was hardly a bad thing.

    Are you really postulating that you want total sovreign control so that we can return to filthy beaches, less rights, poorer working conditions and Labour being able to nationalise everything?
    I'm surprised the UK made any progress on social/welfare reforms before joining the EU.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    The wonderful British people, in all their glory, equal at the ballot box, decided that we'll be making our own way, thank you very much.

    37% of "The wonderful British people, in all their glory, equal at the ballot box, decided that we'll be making our own way". The remaining 63% voted either to remain or could not be bothered to get off their backsides and do something.

    It was hardly a ringing endorsement.
    So instead 0% of them should get to choose and the unelected do everything?

    Riiiiight.
    Your words, not mine.
    Disowning 'Some form of external control may be a necessity to curb their worst excesses.' already?

    No. I said that bit about "external control"

    I never mentioned 0% - you said that.

    We had "external control" and we still had our own govts who were accountable to us and the "external control" was not exactly onerous. Ensuring people's rights and that water quality was better than when we joined and that people should not be worked to death in sweatshops, etc, etc, was hardly a bad thing.

    Are you really postulating that you want total sovreign control so that we can return to filthy beaches, less rights, poorer working conditions and Labour being able to nationalise everything?
    I want total sovereign control precisely because our own priorities should be set by our own people. No-one should have external control on our policies.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849

    RobD said:

    Mortimer said:

    The wonderful British people, in all their glory, equal at the ballot box, decided that we'll be making our own way, thank you very much.

    37% of "The wonderful British people, in all their glory, equal at the ballot box, decided that we'll be making our own way". The remaining 63% voted either to remain or could not be bothered to get off their backsides and do something.

    It was hardly a ringing endorsement.
    Even less of a ringing endorsement of remaining :smiley:
    True, but Remaining was the status quo. To change it should have had a higher requirement than less than 2/5ths of the electorate. If the Leave vote had been 50% + 1 of the electorate rather than those voting then your point would be unassailable.
    Agreed - it was a massive mistake from Cameron not to insist on that given the fundamental nature of the constitutional change at stake.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,892
    stodge said:

    My view, the sooner we leave the EU, the sooner we rejoin.

    Perhaps but on what terms could we rejoin ? Would the EU offer us the terms (including the opt-outs) on which we left in 2016 ?

    The opt-outs that are set in stone in treaties, yes. Not because they'd want to, but because changing treaties is an enormously difficult process.

    The rebate (which is not in a treaty), would I think go.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    RobD said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    I can't WAIT for the first day we're a sovereign nation again. Out of ECJ jurisdiction. Out of the stifling and protectionist single market and the ROW-trade constraining customs union.

    Not just because of the manifold benefits it will present for the medium and long term future of this independent nation, but because it will finally wipe the smile off the 'Remain will win, oh we'll have a second referendum, nah we'll have to remain in-in-all-but-name, yeh we'll HAVE to be in Euratom' refuseniks.

    Bless, even David Davis said we were a sovereign nation whilst we were members of the EU.
    Had you gone to a decent University you'd see the error you made becoming a fervent remainer. How many PMs have you guys had, again?

    :)
    We've not had any PMs as crap as the Oxford Librarian.
    Even your fave went to Oxford....
    And he overcame that disadvantage to become the greatest PM of this century.
    Thatcher's a bloke? :o
    Thatcher was not PM in this century, just Blair, Brown, Cameron and May.

    Not a very inspired bunch, and even I would rate Dave top.
    Blair was clearly top of those four, although he screwed-up royally over Iraq. Dave's cock-up over the EU will have much longer lasting adverse consequences for this country.
    Nah, they're all pretty terrible.

    None a patch on Thatcher, Mac, Atlee, Churchill, Balfour....
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    Oh god thats a desperate sounding woman.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142
    O/T... but I wonder when Corbyn is going to use the "For heaven's sake man, go" line on May. :p
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142
    619 said:

    Oh god thats a desperate sounding woman.
    As desperate as when Clinton was asking why she wasn't 20 points up in the polls? *innocent face*
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    RobD said:

    Mortimer said:

    The wonderful British people, in all their glory, equal at the ballot box, decided that we'll be making our own way, thank you very much.

    37% of "The wonderful British people, in all their glory, equal at the ballot box, decided that we'll be making our own way". The remaining 63% voted either to remain or could not be bothered to get off their backsides and do something.

    It was hardly a ringing endorsement.
    Even less of a ringing endorsement of remaining :smiley:
    True, but Remaining was the status quo. To change it should have had a higher requirement than less than 2/5ths of the electorate. If the Leave vote had been 50% + 1 of the electorate rather than those voting then your point would be unassailable.
    Agreed - it was a massive mistake from Cameron not to insist on that given the fundamental nature of the constitutional change at stake.
    Given how many times he was forced to make a u-turn on the 'rules', I'd hazard it wasn't in his power to do so.

    He wouldn't have lasted till lunchtime before Brady's postbox overflowed.
  • Essexit said:

    My view, the sooner we leave the EU, the sooner we rejoin.

    It won't bring Gideon back, you know.
    1) He's never coming back

    2) Somethings are more important than George

    Like I said last year, the Brexiteers are Juncker's fifth columnists.
    No, you REMAINERs are Juncker's fifth columnists.

    LEAVERs = RAF
    EU = Luftwaffe
    TSE = Lord Haw Haw
    Substantial numbers of our RAF aircrew were European migrants who came here as refugees.

    One cannot help but wonder if our current government would have deported them instead.
    Them Polish Spitfire pilots, comin' over 'ere, takin' our Spitfires, climbin' to angels 18 vector one nine zero in our sky, and shootin' down our Heinkels...oh.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,726

    RobD said:

    Mortimer said:

    The wonderful British people, in all their glory, equal at the ballot box, decided that we'll be making our own way, thank you very much.

    37% of "The wonderful British people, in all their glory, equal at the ballot box, decided that we'll be making our own way". The remaining 63% voted either to remain or could not be bothered to get off their backsides and do something.

    It was hardly a ringing endorsement.
    Even less of a ringing endorsement of remaining :smiley:
    True, but Remaining was the status quo. To change it should have had a higher requirement than less than 2/5ths of the electorate. If the Leave vote had been 50% + 1 of the electorate rather than those voting then your point would be unassailable.
    Agreed - it was a massive mistake from Cameron not to insist on that given the fundamental nature of the constitutional change at stake.
    That's just gerrymandering, which always poisons the well.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    Mortimer said:

    RobD said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    I can't WAIT for the first day we're a sovereign nation again. Out of ECJ jurisdiction. Out of the stifling and protectionist single market and the ROW-trade constraining customs union.

    Not just because of the manifold benefits it will present for the medium and long term future of this independent nation, but because it will finally wipe the smile off the 'Remain will win, oh we'll have a second referendum, nah we'll have to remain in-in-all-but-name, yeh we'll HAVE to be in Euratom' refuseniks.

    Bless, even David Davis said we were a sovereign nation whilst we were members of the EU.
    Had you gone to a decent University you'd see the error you made becoming a fervent remainer. How many PMs have you guys had, again?

    :)
    We've not had any PMs as crap as the Oxford Librarian.
    Even your fave went to Oxford....
    And he overcame that disadvantage to become the greatest PM of this century.
    Thatcher's a bloke? :o
    Thatcher was not PM in this century, just Blair, Brown, Cameron and May.

    Not a very inspired bunch, and even I would rate Dave top.
    Blair was clearly top of those four, although he screwed-up royally over Iraq. Dave's cock-up over the EU will have much longer lasting adverse consequences for this country.
    Nah, they're all pretty terrible.

    None a patch on Thatcher, Mac, Atlee, Churchill, Balfour....
    Surprised to see you mention Attlee - wouldn't have thought he was your cup of tea at all?!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,892

    IanB2 said:

    stodge said:

    .... we looked with envy at the West German economic "miracle" and wondered why we couldn't do the same because we had won the war and they had lost.

    "The War" has been this country's biggest hobgoblin for decades. It has held us back because we believed that we were mega-special because "We won the war". The truth is that we formed alliances that helped us win the war. We did not do it ourselves. Alone, we barely held on and even then it was mostly due to Hitler's stupidity. If he had kept bombing airfields instead of switching to cities (as revenge for the mistaken bombing of Berlin) then the RAF would have been wiped from the skies and the outcome would have been very, very different.

    From that perspective, we did not win the war, Hitler threw it away.
    The Royal Navy would still have been a menace to the (proposed) invasion fleet.

    BTW Hitler threw away the war when he invaded Soviet Russia.
    Good to see that Mrs May has a choice of role models when it comes to strategic decision making
    2016 - our declaration of war
    2017 - our Dunkirk, on the face of it a complete mess, but we live to fight another day
    2020 - D Day!
    You think we're going back into Europe in 2020? That's a bold prediction.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142
    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    stodge said:

    .... we looked with envy at the West German economic "miracle" and wondered why we couldn't do the same because we had won the war and they had lost.

    "The War" has been this country's biggest hobgoblin for decades. It has held us back because we believed that we were mega-special because "We won the war". The truth is that we formed alliances that helped us win the war. We did not do it ourselves. Alone, we barely held on and even then it was mostly due to Hitler's stupidity. If he had kept bombing airfields instead of switching to cities (as revenge for the mistaken bombing of Berlin) then the RAF would have been wiped from the skies and the outcome would have been very, very different.

    From that perspective, we did not win the war, Hitler threw it away.
    The Royal Navy would still have been a menace to the (proposed) invasion fleet.

    BTW Hitler threw away the war when he invaded Soviet Russia.
    Good to see that Mrs May has a choice of role models when it comes to strategic decision making
    2016 - our declaration of war
    2017 - our Dunkirk, on the face of it a complete mess, but we live to fight another day
    2020 - D Day!
    You think we're going back into Europe in 2020? That's a bold prediction.
    Na, he's talking about our enforcement of the Treaty of Troyes.
  • stodge said:

    .... we looked with envy at the West German economic "miracle" and wondered why we couldn't do the same because we had won the war and they had lost.

    "The War" has been this country's biggest hobgoblin for decades. It has held us back because we believed that we were mega-special because "We won the war". The truth is that we formed alliances that helped us win the war. We did not do it ourselves. Alone, we barely held on and even then it was mostly due to Hitler's stupidity. If he had kept bombing airfields instead of switching to cities (as revenge for the mistaken bombing of Berlin) then the RAF would have been wiped from the skies and the outcome would have been very, very different.

    From that perspective, we did not win the war, Hitler threw it away.
    Britain's military focus has always been to defend trade by controlling the sea. Wars on land have always required the recruitment of proxies to do the bulk land fighting, since the year dot. Essentially, if you go to war with Britain she will assemble an invincible coalition against you, however long it takes.

    In that respect all Britain's wars have been the same. There are exceptions such as colonial wars, but the above pattern is the norm. WW1 was so enervating because owing to the inadequacy of France and Russia as allies UK had to do all the heavy lifting at sea and on land and in the air. Suez was a fiasco because the coalition was inadequate.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    RobD said:

    O/T... but I wonder when Corbyn is going to use the "For heaven's sake man, go" line on May. :p

    I think you'll find "In the name of God, go" is the preferred form of words for such occasions.

    Jezza should prefer that as it is gender-neutral (although the mention of God might cause him a problem, I guess).
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,892
    Mortimer said:

    I can't WAIT for the first day we're a sovereign nation again. Out of ECJ jurisdiction. Out of the stifling and protectionist single market and the ROW-trade constraining customs union.

    Not just because of the manifold benefits it will present for the medium and long term future of this independent nation, but because it will finally wipe the smile off the 'Remain will win, oh we'll have a second referendum, nah we'll have to remain in-in-all-but-name, yeh we'll HAVE to be in Euratom' refuseniks.

    From a technical perspective, we're likely to have worse trade arrangements with the rest of the world for quite some time following Brexit.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,892
    Mortimer said:

    RobD said:

    stodge said:

    To me, we either take the European option in full - surrender Sterling, immigration control and set ourselves on a probably irrevocable path to full political and fiscal union or we remain outside making our own way.

    I have to agree. I think we need to develop a vision of a Federal Europe and start pushing for that. I think that the last 5 or 10 years of politics have shown our politicians to be self-obsessed 3rd raters. Some form of external control may be a necessity to curb their worst excesses.

    No thanks. The people should be in charge, not some unelected eurocrat.
    Well then, as part of a Federal Europe, restructure to make the EU Parliament the governing body with the appointed bureaucrats doing Parliament's bidding. Just like we do in the UK.
    Posts like this make it clear to me that there must be no option to retain some dodgy amorphous concept of 'EU Citizenship' after Brexit.

    We make a clean break of it, or the Clarke and Soubry fanbois will be forever scheming....
    I don't think that's in our hands: that's in the hands of the EU and its members.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    rcs1000 said:

    From a technical perspective, we're likely to have worse trade arrangements with the rest of the world for quite some time following Brexit.

    At least we can still export some things...

    https://twitter.com/skynews/status/885236352631091200
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142
    rcs1000 said:

    Mortimer said:

    RobD said:

    stodge said:

    To me, we either take the European option in full - surrender Sterling, immigration control and set ourselves on a probably irrevocable path to full political and fiscal union or we remain outside making our own way.

    I have to agree. I think we need to develop a vision of a Federal Europe and start pushing for that. I think that the last 5 or 10 years of politics have shown our politicians to be self-obsessed 3rd raters. Some form of external control may be a necessity to curb their worst excesses.

    No thanks. The people should be in charge, not some unelected eurocrat.
    Well then, as part of a Federal Europe, restructure to make the EU Parliament the governing body with the appointed bureaucrats doing Parliament's bidding. Just like we do in the UK.
    Posts like this make it clear to me that there must be no option to retain some dodgy amorphous concept of 'EU Citizenship' after Brexit.

    We make a clean break of it, or the Clarke and Soubry fanbois will be forever scheming....
    I don't think that's in our hands: that's in the hands of the EU and its members.
    I think it would be a very underhand thing of the EU to do if it wasn't agreed to by HMG.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Sean_F said:


    Labour are probably no better.

    It's just sad the way the Conservatives let down the millions who vote for them.

    Sorry, Sean, but this is just wrong. Like all major parties, the Conservative Party is of course a coalition of people with broadly similar views on lots of things, and a divergence of views on some issues. 'Letting down millions who vote for them' just means 'not everything people who vote for them is achievable in practice, and in any case the people who vote for them don't all want the same thing on every issue'.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,892
    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Mortimer said:

    RobD said:

    stodge said:

    To me, we either take the European option in full - surrender Sterling, immigration control and set ourselves on a probably irrevocable path to full political and fiscal union or we remain outside making our own way.

    I have to agree. I think we need to develop a vision of a Federal Europe and start pushing for that. I think that the last 5 or 10 years of politics have shown our politicians to be self-obsessed 3rd raters. Some form of external control may be a necessity to curb their worst excesses.

    No thanks. The people should be in charge, not some unelected eurocrat.
    Well then, as part of a Federal Europe, restructure to make the EU Parliament the governing body with the appointed bureaucrats doing Parliament's bidding. Just like we do in the UK.
    Posts like this make it clear to me that there must be no option to retain some dodgy amorphous concept of 'EU Citizenship' after Brexit.

    We make a clean break of it, or the Clarke and Soubry fanbois will be forever scheming....
    I don't think that's in our hands: that's in the hands of the EU and its members.
    I think it would be a very underhand thing of the EU to do if it wasn't agreed to by HMG.
    If the EU wants to offer British citizens some amorphous concept of EU Citizenship that's their business. Likewise, if the UK government wants to make it illegal to be both British and an EU Citizen then that's their business too.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,892
    Scott_P said:

    rcs1000 said:

    From a technical perspective, we're likely to have worse trade arrangements with the rest of the world for quite some time following Brexit.

    At least we can still export some things...

    https://twitter.com/skynews/status/885236352631091200
    Thank god for Radiohead.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Mortimer said:

    RobD said:

    stodge said:

    To me, we either take the European option in full - surrender Sterling, immigration control and set ourselves on a probably irrevocable path to full political and fiscal union or we remain outside making our own way.

    I have to agree. I think we need to develop a vision of a Federal Europe and start pushing for that. I think that the last 5 or 10 years of politics have shown our politicians to be self-obsessed 3rd raters. Some form of external control may be a necessity to curb their worst excesses.

    No thanks. The people should be in charge, not some unelected eurocrat.
    Well then, as part of a Federal Europe, restructure to make the EU Parliament the governing body with the appointed bureaucrats doing Parliament's bidding. Just like we do in the UK.
    Posts like this make it clear to me that there must be no option to retain some dodgy amorphous concept of 'EU Citizenship' after Brexit.

    We make a clean break of it, or the Clarke and Soubry fanbois will be forever scheming....
    I don't think that's in our hands: that's in the hands of the EU and its members.
    I think it would be a very underhand thing of the EU to do if it wasn't agreed to by HMG.
    Confused now... Are you talking about the EU offering UK citizens EU citizenship post-Brexit? (if so yes please!) But could the UK government prevent that?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822

    Thanks to the EU, same sex partners had their pension rights compulsorily backdated for all pension attributable to service before 2005 by the Supreme Court today. Its healthy progressive influence will be sorely missed after Britain has left it.

    Is that a good thing? Yes, it's a good thing because it's manifestly the fair thing to do, and consistent with same-sex marriage as a concept. No, it's a bad thing because it imposes new and unexpected retrospective liabilities on defined-benefit pension funds.

    You can argue it either way, but God only knows why the EU should have anything to do with it. It should be a decision for parliament, which is the relevant democratically-elected body.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Mortimer said:

    RobD said:

    stodge said:

    To me, we either take the European option in full - surrender Sterling, immigration control and set ourselves on a probably irrevocable path to full political and fiscal union or we remain outside making our own way.

    I have to agree. I think we need to develop a vision of a Federal Europe and start pushing for that. I think that the last 5 or 10 years of politics have shown our politicians to be self-obsessed 3rd raters. Some form of external control may be a necessity to curb their worst excesses.

    No thanks. The people should be in charge, not some unelected eurocrat.
    Well then, as part of a Federal Europe, restructure to make the EU Parliament the governing body with the appointed bureaucrats doing Parliament's bidding. Just like we do in the UK.
    Posts like this make it clear to me that there must be no option to retain some dodgy amorphous concept of 'EU Citizenship' after Brexit.

    We make a clean break of it, or the Clarke and Soubry fanbois will be forever scheming....
    I don't think that's in our hands: that's in the hands of the EU and its members.
    I think it would be a very underhand thing of the EU to do if it wasn't agreed to by HMG.
    If the EU wants to offer British citizens some amorphous concept of EU Citizenship that's their business. Likewise, if the UK government wants to make it illegal to be both British and an EU Citizen then that's their business too.
    Ok, both points make sense, but what if significant numbers of indivuduals select the EU citizenship in preference to UK citizenship? Could get interesing.
  • rawzerrawzer Posts: 189

    stodge said:

    .... we looked with envy at the West German economic "miracle" and wondered why we couldn't do the same because we had won the war and they had lost.

    "The War" has been this country's biggest hobgoblin for decades. It has held us back because we believed that we were mega-special because "We won the war". The truth is that we formed alliances that helped us win the war. We did not do it ourselves. Alone, we barely held on and even then it was mostly due to Hitler's stupidity. If he had kept bombing airfields instead of switching to cities (as revenge for the mistaken bombing of Berlin) then the RAF would have been wiped from the skies and the outcome would have been very, very different.

    From that perspective, we did not win the war, Hitler threw it away.
    Britain's military focus has always been to defend trade by controlling the sea. Wars on land have always required the recruitment of proxies to do the bulk land fighting, since the year dot. Essentially, if you go to war with Britain she will assemble an invincible coalition against you, however long it takes.

    In that respect all Britain's wars have been the same. There are exceptions such as colonial wars, but the above pattern is the norm. WW1 was so enervating because owing to the inadequacy of France and Russia as allies UK had to do all the heavy lifting at sea and on land and in the air. Suez was a fiasco because the coalition was inadequate.
    Bit harsh on the French, they racked up twice as many losses (in absolute and relative terms) in WW1 as we did
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849

    Thanks to the EU, same sex partners had their pension rights compulsorily backdated for all pension attributable to service before 2005 by the Supreme Court today. Its healthy progressive influence will be sorely missed after Britain has left it.

    Is that a good thing? Yes, it's a good thing because it's manifestly the fair thing to do, and consistent with same-sex marriage as a concept. No, it's a bad thing because it imposes new and unexpected retrospective liabilities on defined-benefit pension funds.

    You can argue it either way, but God only knows why the EU should have anything to do with it. It should be a decision for parliament, which is the relevant democratically-elected body.
    It's an overridingly good thing Richard... the numbers involved will mean minimal impact on DB schemes, most of which have already moved in this direction anyway.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited July 2017

    It's an overridingly good thing Richard... the numbers involved will mean minimal impact on DB schemes, most of which have already moved in this direction anyway.

    Fair enough. But what's it got to do with the EU?
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Sean_F said:

    RobD said:

    Mortimer said:

    The wonderful British people, in all their glory, equal at the ballot box, decided that we'll be making our own way, thank you very much.

    37% of "The wonderful British people, in all their glory, equal at the ballot box, decided that we'll be making our own way". The remaining 63% voted either to remain or could not be bothered to get off their backsides and do something.

    It was hardly a ringing endorsement.
    Even less of a ringing endorsement of remaining :smiley:
    True, but Remaining was the status quo. To change it should have had a higher requirement than less than 2/5ths of the electorate. If the Leave vote had been 50% + 1 of the electorate rather than those voting then your point would be unassailable.
    Agreed - it was a massive mistake from Cameron not to insist on that given the fundamental nature of the constitutional change at stake.
    That's just gerrymandering, which always poisons the well.
    And Brexit hasn't?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849

    It's an overridingly good thing Richard... the numbers involved will mean minimal impact on DB schemes, most of which have already moved in this direction anyway.

    Fair enough. But what's it got to do with the EU?
    No idea but I expect Alastair Meeks can explain.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    The wonderful British people, in all their glory, equal at the ballot box, decided that we'll be making our own way, thank you very much.

    37% of "The wonderful British people, in all their glory, equal at the ballot box, decided that we'll be making our own way". The remaining 63% voted either to remain or could not be bothered to get off their backsides and do something.

    It was hardly a ringing endorsement.
    So instead 0% of them should get to choose and the unelected do everything?

    Riiiiight.
    Your words, not mine.
    Disowning 'Some form of external control may be a necessity to curb their worst excesses.' already?

    No. I said that bit about "external control"

    I never mentioned 0% - you said that.

    We had "external control" and we still had our own govts who were accountable to us and the "external control" was not exactly onerous. Ensuring people's rights and that water quality was better than when we joined and that people should not be worked to death in sweatshops, etc, etc, was hardly a bad thing.

    Are you really postulating that you want total sovreign control so that we can return to filthy beaches, less rights, poorer working conditions and Labour being able to nationalise everything?
    I want total sovereign control precisely because our own priorities should be set by our own people. No-one should have external control on our policies.
    It is not a rational position to throw away the advances we have made just so we can proclaim ourselves as the architects of our own mess.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822

    It's an overridingly good thing Richard... the numbers involved will mean minimal impact on DB schemes, most of which have already moved in this direction anyway.

    Fair enough. But what's it got to do with the EU?
    No idea but I expect Alastair Meeks can explain.
    I'm very suspicious of arguments which go along the line of 'I want our democratically-elected MPs to be overruled by an unelected EU simply because I happen on this issue to disagree with what parliament has decided'. That way tyranny lies.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    rcs1000 said:

    If the EU wants to offer British citizens some amorphous concept of EU Citizenship that's their business. Likewise, if the UK government wants to make it illegal to be both British and an EU Citizen then that's their business too.

    Ok, both points make sense, but what if significant numbers of indivuduals select the EU citizenship in preference to UK citizenship? Could get interesing.
    The govt would have real trouble making Dual/EU Citizenship illegal. Start with Northern Ireland - almost every adult there has dual citizenship and it is recognised by the Good Friday Agreement.

    It would also be discriminatory in the sense that dual UK/non-EU citizenship would be legal whilst UK/EU would not and if ALL dual citizenship was banned then a lot of people might start packing their bags.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849

    It's an overridingly good thing Richard... the numbers involved will mean minimal impact on DB schemes, most of which have already moved in this direction anyway.

    Fair enough. But what's it got to do with the EU?
    No idea but I expect Alastair Meeks can explain.
    I'm very suspicious of arguments which go along the line of 'I want our democratically-elected MPs to be overruled by an unelected EU simply because I happen on this issue to disagree with what parliament has decided'. That way tyranny lies.
    I'd have more truck with your argument a) if I saw much evidence of our democratically elected MPs voting with their consciences rather than for what their party tells them or b) we had an electoral system that ensured a more proportional representation of MP numbers to electoral votes.

    I live in an ultra safe Tory seat. I don't really feel any connection to my MP; to me, he's as faceless as any EU bureaucrat tbh.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,892

    It's an overridingly good thing Richard... the numbers involved will mean minimal impact on DB schemes, most of which have already moved in this direction anyway.

    Fair enough. But what's it got to do with the EU?
    No idea but I expect Alastair Meeks can explain.
    I'm very suspicious of arguments which go along the line of 'I want our democratically-elected MPs to be overruled by an unelected EU simply because I happen on this issue to disagree with what parliament has decided'. That way tyranny lies.
    Absolutely.

    Although, personally I think we need a constitution that limits the power of the government. Democracy, all too often, is tyranny of the majority. (Or in the UK, tyranny of the plurality.)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849

    rcs1000 said:

    If the EU wants to offer British citizens some amorphous concept of EU Citizenship that's their business. Likewise, if the UK government wants to make it illegal to be both British and an EU Citizen then that's their business too.

    Ok, both points make sense, but what if significant numbers of indivuduals select the EU citizenship in preference to UK citizenship? Could get interesing.
    The govt would have real trouble making Dual/EU Citizenship illegal. Start with Northern Ireland - almost every adult there has dual citizenship and it is recognised by the Good Friday Agreement.

    It would also be discriminatory in the sense that dual UK/non-EU citizenship would be legal whilst UK/EU would not and if ALL dual citizenship was banned then a lot of people might start packing their bags.
    Yes, makes sense, thanks. I wonder if Davis and co will be trying to get the EU to agree not to offer EU-citizenship then?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822

    It's an overridingly good thing Richard... the numbers involved will mean minimal impact on DB schemes, most of which have already moved in this direction anyway.

    Fair enough. But what's it got to do with the EU?
    No idea but I expect Alastair Meeks can explain.
    I'm very suspicious of arguments which go along the line of 'I want our democratically-elected MPs to be overruled by an unelected EU simply because I happen on this issue to disagree with what parliament has decided'. That way tyranny lies.
    I'd have more truck with your argument a) if I saw much evidence of our democratically elected MPs voting with their consciences rather than for what their party tells them or b) we had an electoral system that ensured a more proportional representation of MP numbers to electoral votes.

    I live in an ultra safe Tory seat. I don't really feel any connection to my MP; to me, he's as faceless as any EU bureaucrat tbh.
    I'm unclear why you think proportional representation would be an improvement. It makes it harder to boot out the government. The great advantage of FPTP is precisely that swing voters can swing it, as we just (almost) saw.

    In any case, if you are lucky enough to live in an ultra-safe Tory seat, all that means is that the vast majority of your fellow constituents get the MP they want. I struggle to see why that's a bad thing.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,726

    It's an overridingly good thing Richard... the numbers involved will mean minimal impact on DB schemes, most of which have already moved in this direction anyway.

    Fair enough. But what's it got to do with the EU?
    No idea but I expect Alastair Meeks can explain.
    I'm very suspicious of arguments which go along the line of 'I want our democratically-elected MPs to be overruled by an unelected EU simply because I happen on this issue to disagree with what parliament has decided'. That way tyranny lies.
    I'd have more truck with your argument a) if I saw much evidence of our democratically elected MPs voting with their consciences rather than for what their party tells them or b) we had an electoral system that ensured a more proportional representation of MP numbers to electoral votes.

    I live in an ultra safe Tory seat. I don't really feel any connection to my MP; to me, he's as faceless as any EU bureaucrat tbh.
    PR is not more democratic. It gives even more power to the parties at the expense of the electorate. We should be reducing the power of the parties not increasing it.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Watching Thornberry on BBC Parliament. She is brilliant !
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    surbiton said:

    Watching Thornberry on BBC Parliament. She is brilliant !

    Brilliant is putting it a bit strongly, but in a catastrophically weak Labour front bench she's pretty good, probably the best of the bunch.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,892

    It's an overridingly good thing Richard... the numbers involved will mean minimal impact on DB schemes, most of which have already moved in this direction anyway.

    Fair enough. But what's it got to do with the EU?
    No idea but I expect Alastair Meeks can explain.
    I'm very suspicious of arguments which go along the line of 'I want our democratically-elected MPs to be overruled by an unelected EU simply because I happen on this issue to disagree with what parliament has decided'. That way tyranny lies.
    I'd have more truck with your argument a) if I saw much evidence of our democratically elected MPs voting with their consciences rather than for what their party tells them or b) we had an electoral system that ensured a more proportional representation of MP numbers to electoral votes.

    I live in an ultra safe Tory seat. I don't really feel any connection to my MP; to me, he's as faceless as any EU bureaucrat tbh.
    PR is not more democratic. It gives even more power to the parties at the expense of the electorate. We should be reducing the power of the parties not increasing it.
    The problem with elections is that they give legitimacy to politicians. Discuss.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,853
    Essexit said:

    A second referendum isn't happening. The Tories are led by a born-again Brexiteer and are largely made up of long-time/born-again Brexiteers. Labour is led by a long-time Brexiteer.

    That's precisely why it is happening. When they no longer have the answers and don't have any friends left to phone, the only thing left is to ask the audience.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,853
    Sean_F said:

    We see the EU as about trade, rather than political union. As Robert Smithson has repeatedly pointed out, we're a bad fit.

    But it is a political union, and what's more the majority of British people alive have never known anything else but to be a part of it. This lack of understanding of ourselves is why we are completely ill-equipped to perceive what is required to execute Brexit.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,726
    edited July 2017
    Repeat posting.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    edited July 2017

    It's an overridingly good thing Richard... the numbers involved will mean minimal impact on DB schemes, most of which have already moved in this direction anyway.

    Fair enough. But what's it got to do with the EU?
    No idea but I expect Alastair Meeks can explain.
    I'm very suspicious of arguments which go along the line of 'I want our democratically-elected MPs to be overruled by an unelected EU simply because I happen on this issue to disagree with what parliament has decided'. That way tyranny lies.
    I'd have more truck with your argument a) if I saw much evidence of our democratically elected MPs voting with their consciences rather than for what their party tells them or b) we had an electoral system that ensured a more proportional representation of MP numbers to electoral votes.

    I live in an ultra safe Tory seat. I don't really feel any connection to my MP; to me, he's as faceless as any EU bureaucrat tbh.
    I'm unclear why you think proportional representation would be an improvement. It makes it harder to boot out the government. The great advantage of FPTP is precisely that swing voters can swing it, as we just (almost) saw.

    In any case, if you are lucky enough to live in an ultra-safe Tory seat, all that means is that the vast majority of your fellow constituents get the MP they want. I struggle to see why that's a bad thing.
    It's a bad thing for me - my vote doesn't count towards anything. I believe one of the reasons why the EU ref brought out lots of people who didn't normally vote was because every vote counted - no one was voting in a constituency that was a foregone conclusion.

    Anyhow, we had the AV referendum, it got trounced, I don't expect to see PR in my lifetime. I'll get over it :smile:
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,726
    rcs1000 said:

    stodge said:

    My view, the sooner we leave the EU, the sooner we rejoin.

    Perhaps but on what terms could we rejoin ? Would the EU offer us the terms (including the opt-outs) on which we left in 2016 ?

    The opt-outs that are set in stone in treaties, yes. Not because they'd want to, but because changing treaties is an enormously difficult process.

    The rebate (which is not in a treaty), would I think go.
    The opt outs will remain until we actually leave the EU. Once that has happened a legal process will take place to write the UK out of all the treaties. When that is completed any reentry by the UK would be governed by an entirely new accession treaty and there would be no requirement for the EU to include any of the previous opt outs
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,726
    rcs1000 said:

    It's an overridingly good thing Richard... the numbers involved will mean minimal impact on DB schemes, most of which have already moved in this direction anyway.

    Fair enough. But what's it got to do with the EU?
    No idea but I expect Alastair Meeks can explain.
    I'm very suspicious of arguments which go along the line of 'I want our democratically-elected MPs to be overruled by an unelected EU simply because I happen on this issue to disagree with what parliament has decided'. That way tyranny lies.
    I'd have more truck with your argument a) if I saw much evidence of our democratically elected MPs voting with their consciences rather than for what their party tells them or b) we had an electoral system that ensured a more proportional representation of MP numbers to electoral votes.

    I live in an ultra safe Tory seat. I don't really feel any connection to my MP; to me, he's as faceless as any EU bureaucrat tbh.
    PR is not more democratic. It gives even more power to the parties at the expense of the electorate. We should be reducing the power of the parties not increasing it.
    The problem with elections is that they give legitimacy to politicians. Discuss.
    Actually the problem is they give legitimacy to parties as opposed to politicians.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849

    It's an overridingly good thing Richard... the numbers involved will mean minimal impact on DB schemes, most of which have already moved in this direction anyway.

    Fair enough. But what's it got to do with the EU?
    No idea but I expect Alastair Meeks can explain.
    I'm very suspicious of arguments which go along the line of 'I want our democratically-elected MPs to be overruled by an unelected EU simply because I happen on this issue to disagree with what parliament has decided'. That way tyranny lies.
    I'd have more truck with your argument a) if I saw much evidence of our democratically elected MPs voting with their consciences rather than for what their party tells them or b) we had an electoral system that ensured a more proportional representation of MP numbers to electoral votes.

    I live in an ultra safe Tory seat. I don't really feel any connection to my MP; to me, he's as faceless as any EU bureaucrat tbh.
    I'm unclear why you think proportional representation would be an improvement...

    PR would lead to more coalitions and therefore more consensual government. I think the 2010 coalition was much better than the mess we've had since 2015.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142

    It's an overridingly good thing Richard... the numbers involved will mean minimal impact on DB schemes, most of which have already moved in this direction anyway.

    Fair enough. But what's it got to do with the EU?
    No idea but I expect Alastair Meeks can explain.
    I'm very suspicious of arguments which go along the line of 'I want our democratically-elected MPs to be overruled by an unelected EU simply because I happen on this issue to disagree with what parliament has decided'. That way tyranny lies.
    I'd have more truck with your argument a) if I saw much evidence of our democratically elected MPs voting with their consciences rather than for what their party tells them or b) we had an electoral system that ensured a more proportional representation of MP numbers to electoral votes.

    I live in an ultra safe Tory seat. I don't really feel any connection to my MP; to me, he's as faceless as any EU bureaucrat tbh.
    I'm unclear why you think proportional representation would be an improvement...

    PR would lead to more coalitions and therefore more consensual government. I think the 2010 coalition was much better than the mess we've had since 2015.
    With PR you are guaranteed to get a stitch-up after the vote has taken place as the parties clobber a coalition together.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    surbiton said:

    Sean_F said:

    O/T, how the hell did the Tories lose Peterborough?

    It was 61% Leave, no big student vote, not a liberal constituency, socially similar to places like Stevenage and Harlow. It should have been a slam dunk.

    Because a lot of the 61% had more to do with punishing the Tories than with Brexit.
    There was probably a significant personal vote against Stewart Jackson.
    But is there any particular reason to believe that was bigger in 2017 as compared with 2015?
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    RobD said:

    It's an overridingly good thing Richard... the numbers involved will mean minimal impact on DB schemes, most of which have already moved in this direction anyway.

    Fair enough. But what's it got to do with the EU?
    No idea but I expect Alastair Meeks can explain.
    I'm very suspicious of arguments which go along the line of 'I want our democratically-elected MPs to be overruled by an unelected EU simply because I happen on this issue to disagree with what parliament has decided'. That way tyranny lies.
    I'd have more truck with your argument a) if I saw much evidence of our democratically elected MPs voting with their consciences rather than for what their party tells them or b) we had an electoral system that ensured a more proportional representation of MP numbers to electoral votes.

    I live in an ultra safe Tory seat. I don't really feel any connection to my MP; to me, he's as faceless as any EU bureaucrat tbh.
    I'm unclear why you think proportional representation would be an improvement...

    PR would lead to more coalitions and therefore more consensual government. I think the 2010 coalition was much better than the mess we've had since 2015.
    With PR you are guaranteed to get a stitch-up after the vote has taken place as the parties clobber a coalition together.
    And?
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052

    It's an overridingly good thing Richard... the numbers involved will mean minimal impact on DB schemes, most of which have already moved in this direction anyway.

    Fair enough. But what's it got to do with the EU?
    No idea but I expect Alastair Meeks can explain.
    I'm very suspicious of arguments which go along the line of 'I want our democratically-elected MPs to be overruled by an unelected EU simply because I happen on this issue to disagree with what parliament has decided'. That way tyranny lies.
    I'd have more truck with your argument a) if I saw much evidence of our democratically elected MPs voting with their consciences rather than for what their party tells them or b) we had an electoral system that ensured a more proportional representation of MP numbers to electoral votes.

    I live in an ultra safe Tory seat. I don't really feel any connection to my MP; to me, he's as faceless as any EU bureaucrat tbh.
    PR is not more democratic. It gives even more power to the parties at the expense of the electorate. We should be reducing the power of the parties not increasing it.
    FPTP would work if there were no party whips. But there are. So the argument that FPTP MPs are constituency representatives won't wash. They're party representatives, even if they only got 35 or 40% of the vote. Once we're honest about this it's easy to see that PR is fairer.
  • Iain Martin in The Times screams for Theresa May to go and go soon. I think just about everyone agrees (including probably La May herself) and on that basis, Coral's 5/2 against her departing this year looks like very fair value to me.
    DYOR!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142
    New thread...
This discussion has been closed.