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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New PB/Polling Matters podcast: Support for a 2nd Brexit vote
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New PB/Polling Matters podcast: Support for a 2nd Brexit vote grows (plus THOSE Trump emails)
Keiran and JC discuss the political fallout in the States following scandalous revelations from emails. However, this time they are not Clinton emails but those of Donald Trump Jr. Keiran and JC also discuss what Corbyn’s surge might mean for US politics in the future and why America doesn’t have universal healthcare even though some polls suggest that the concept is more popular than you might think.
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Good evening, everyone.
Yes, you can feel it coming.
There will be no Brexit
https://twitter.com/parlyapp/status/885198057645772800
https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/tomchivers/heres-why-were-probably-going-to-have-to-leave-euratom
Plus for all the Moggmentum types, if the Moggster can't beat Nicky Morgan how can he win a general election?
But more problems for Mrs May, she really sacks people with glee and it comes back to bite her on the arse.
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/885201962656051208
...uck!
Of course there will be a referendum on the Brexit deal, with the option to remain in the EU. But not many Politicians are brave enough to admit this at the moment, because they would face attack, which might be more than just verbal.
By Autumn 2018 the country may well have changed their minds and Parliament is split on it. So a second referendum will be arranged for a final decision.
Hope you're pleased with the crumbs she throws you
She's ferocious and she knows just
What it takes to make a pro blush
All the boys think she's a spy, she's got Nicky Morgan eyes
Or they might take the view that if we wish to remain, the terms on offer will be a good deal harsher than they are now.
Barring very unusual circumstances, I think the last chance to remain in the EU was when the Commons voted on Article 50.
Regardless of her views she just doesn't have the ability to be effective in a role as important as this
we'd be better served by a can of baked beans
Trump did start as less popular than any other President (although only barely worse than Reagan or Bush Sr).
But nevertheless, Trump's rating are pretty awful. He was very, very lucky to face Hillary.
Do we see a pattern developing here
a pumpkin sat in a chair while others do the work
shes just fucking thick
and a lawyer to boot, an industry where productivity makes you poorer
(j/k, of course!)
1. A major international crisis, like Russia invading the Baltics, which means that it's put on hold.
2. A very major recession in the UK that caused opinion polls to swing to 66:33 in favour of Remain (although I suspect that a more likely outcome there would be EEA/EFTA)
3. The government being unable to pass a Brexit bill, falling, and elections being won by a pro-EU party.
I actually think the first half of 3 is quite likely - the combination of Conservative rebels and Corbyn opportunism could easily lead to a snap election. The chance of it being won by a pro-EU party (unless crossed with 2) would be slim, however.
http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_MEMO-17-2001_en.htm
What's not to love ?
Backbench Business: Mearns 305 votes Smith 263
Business etc: Reeves 277 Byrne 149 Owen 97 Lucas 50. Round II: Reeves 291 Byrne 165 Owen 109
Communites and Local Government: Betts 335 Lammy 229
Defence: Lewis 305 Mercer 265
Education: Halton 136 Boles 129 Poulter 109 Loughton 101 Metcalfe 63 Chishti 33 .
Round II: Halton 141 Boles 137 Poulter 112 Loughton 104 Metcalfe 67
Round III: Boles 153 Halton 152 Poulter 127 Loughton 116
Round IV: Halton 261 Boles 213
DEFRA: Parish 324 Wiggin 137 Goldsmith 107
Foreign: Tugendhat 317 Blunt 184 Baron 71
Norhern Ireland: Murrison 330 Mills 200
Science and Technology: Lamb 343 Swinson 222
Transport: Philipson 162 Greenwood 145 Davies 134 Shuker 74 Efford 60
Round II: Philipson 171 Greenwood 164 Davies 144 Shuker 83
Round III: Greenwood 193 Philipson 186 Davies 162
Round IV: Greenwood 233 Philipson 225
Treasury: Morgan 200 Rees 136 Elphicke 74 Bacon 65 Penrose 63 Hammond 32
Round II Morgan 207 Rees 141 Elphicke 82 Bacon 71 Penrose 68
Round III: Morgan 227 Rees 160 Elphicke 98 Bacon 75
Round IV: Morgan 254 Rees 179 Elphicke 114
Round V: Morgan 290 Rees Mogg 226
www.parliament.uk/documents/commons-committees/Select-Committee-Chair-Results-2017.pdf
Tusk said so. There are two types of Brexits: Brexit or No Brexit
The latter will happen.
*runs and hides*
"It was the decision of the United Kingdom to trigger Article 50. But once triggered, it cannot be unilaterally reversed. Article 50 does not provide for the unilateral withdrawal of the notification."
In other words, Brexit CAN be stopped if everyone agrees to stop it, but I suspect the price will be our rebate and possibly a commitment to join the Euro by some specified future date.
What happens if no agreement is reached?
The EU Treaties simply cease to apply to the UK two years after notification.
But, once we've negotiated terms of departure with the EU, I don't think it's realistic to suppose we can change our minds and return to the status quo ante.
Why are European politicians so much cooler than ours and why are ours so leaden-footed?
When my kind of Toryism was in ascendance we made net seat gains/won a majority.
Nicky Morgan represents that kinda Toryism.
the tories can only win with a broad church approach
you;d rather lose than work with the rest of your party
theres no my kind of Toryism - theres just Toryism
It's just sad the way the Conservatives let down the millions who vote for them.
That's quite an epitaph.
theyre more interested in their private wars
On the EU side, revocation of Article 50 would have to be agreed unanimously. This won't happen without us accepting terms like euro membership, pushing former Remain voters into the Leave column.
TWBABAIWBFF
Nothing in life is certain.
It was 61% Leave, no big student vote, not a liberal constituency, socially similar to places like Stevenage and Harlow. It should have been a slam dunk.
(Sorry for the late response, I was making bread dough and it really cannot be rushed. It is proving now so I have some time to respond)
Doesn't David Davis look like Max Headroom?
" You may say I'm a dreamer
But I'm not the only one "
Reference: UK can stay in the EU.
Oooohhhhhh Jeremy Corbynnnnn
If Cameron and the eu had agrees a sensible package of reforms / uk opt-outs pre-vote remain would have won easily.
2) Somethings are more important than George
Like I said last year, the Brexiteers are Juncker's fifth columnists.
Crashing out of the EU and moving to WTO rules would be the consequence if either no deal can be agreed or anyone from within the EU or the UK Parliament.
There is no provision for remaining in the EU once the A50 notice is triggered and while that doesn't rule out a future re-joining, whether that would be on any kind of terms acceptable to the UK electorate remains to be seen.
The question then becomes if the rules can or will be bent by both sides. Realpolitik dictates that if both sides decide the rules can be bent they will. Transitional periods, extensions and other flexibility might suddenly be conjured and no doubt would be changed in courts many and various.