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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If there were a Newton Abbot by election this year, the Tories

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  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,872
    edited July 2017

    eek said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:
    Or did she? Your Guardian link has that headline but the body text suggests she did not say that -- rather that Uber's treatment of its drivers is morally wrong, and that is why she does not use Uber.
    I was quoting the headline.
    She is merely saying what she personally does, not demanding that everyone else agrees - it's a sidebar to her main point that they should improve their employment practices.

    I think they'll need to - they've been effectively banned altogether in Denmark and I think one or two other places.
    I believe they are banned in Germany. I use them in Austria and Finland simply because they are more convenient than taxis - price is irrelevant as I expense it anyway....
    I never, ever use them in London.

    Black cab drivers have spent years doing the knowledge in their own time and at their own expense, and are by far the safest cabs to take.
    From my perspective, as a full-time wheelchair user, Uber doesn't work for me at all. Black cabs all have to be accessible (which some will see as wasteful red-tape but which makes an enourmous difference to me and others like me).

    I can see Uber driving black cabs out of business which would be a regressive step for me personally :disappointed:
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,799
    As we were discussing yesterday....looks like the Euratom rebels haven't done their homework....not misled by a Russian owned free-sheet, surely?

    https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/884720686878556160
    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/884433545187536896
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Pulpstar said:

    FF43 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Pulpstar said:

    then a Belgian mandate until independence

    OK That explains it, the Belgians were shocking colonists.
    Who were the good colonists? Let me guess...
    The Norman French?

    PS Or the Anglo Saxons?
    The Romans tamed and civilised the savages living here I think.
    So the Romans say!

  • Options
    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341

    eek said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:
    Or did she? Your Guardian link has that headline but the body text suggests she did not say that -- rather that Uber's treatment of its drivers is morally wrong, and that is why she does not use Uber.
    I was quoting the headline.
    She is merely saying what she personally does, not demanding that everyone else agrees - it's a sidebar to her main point that they should improve their employment practices.

    I think they'll need to - they've been effectively banned altogether in Denmark and I think one or two other places.
    I believe they are banned in Germany. I use them in Austria and Finland simply because they are more convenient than taxis - price is irrelevant as I expense it anyway....
    I never, ever use them in London.

    Black cab drivers have spent years doing the knowledge in their own time and at their own expense, and are by far the safest cabs to take.
    From my perspective, as a full-time wheelchair user, Uber doesn't work for me at all. Black cabs all have to be accessible (which some will see as wasteful red-tape but which makes an enourmous difference to me and others like me).

    I can see Uber driving black cabs out of business which would be a regressive step for me personally :disappointed:
    Uber are brilliant. You can see where your taxi is while you're waiting for it, you and the driver can call each other without giving out your number and no need to deal with cash.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,088

    eek said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:
    Or did she? Your Guardian link has that headline but the body text suggests she did not say that -- rather that Uber's treatment of its drivers is morally wrong, and that is why she does not use Uber.
    I was quoting the headline.
    She is merely saying what she personally does, not demanding that everyone else agrees - it's a sidebar to her main point that they should improve their employment practices.

    I think they'll need to - they've been effectively banned altogether in Denmark and I think one or two other places.
    I believe they are banned in Germany. I use them in Austria and Finland simply because they are more convenient than taxis - price is irrelevant as I expense it anyway....
    I never, ever use them in London.

    Black cab drivers have spent years doing the knowledge in their own time and at their own expense, and are by far the safest cabs to take.
    From my perspective, as a full-time wheelchair user, Uber doesn't work for me at all. Black cabs all have to be accessible (which some will see as wasteful red-tape but which makes an enourmous difference to me and others like me).

    I can see Uber driving black cabs out of business which would be a regressive step for me personally :disappointed:
    Uber are brilliant. You can see where your taxi is while you're waiting for it, you and the driver can call each other without giving out your number and no need to deal with cash.
    Still can’t use them if you’re a wheelchair user though. That’s our friends point.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,799

    eek said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:
    Or did she? Your Guardian link has that headline but the body text suggests she did not say that -- rather that Uber's treatment of its drivers is morally wrong, and that is why she does not use Uber.
    I was quoting the headline.
    She is merely saying what she personally does, not demanding that everyone else agrees - it's a sidebar to her main point that they should improve their employment practices.

    I think they'll need to - they've been effectively banned altogether in Denmark and I think one or two other places.
    I believe they are banned in Germany. I use them in Austria and Finland simply because they are more convenient than taxis - price is irrelevant as I expense it anyway....
    I never, ever use them in London.

    Black cab drivers have spent years doing the knowledge in their own time and at their own expense, and are by far the safest cabs to take.
    From my perspective, as a full-time wheelchair user, Uber doesn't work for me at all. Black cabs all have to be accessible (which some will see as wasteful red-tape but which makes an enourmous difference to me and others like me).

    I can see Uber driving black cabs out of business which would be a regressive step for me personally :disappointed:
    If you're in London, have you tried UBERWAV?

    https://newsroom.uber.com/uk/ldnwav/
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,694
    stodge said:

    Mr. Fire, those redcoats put Boney in his place ;)

    Slightly selective historical analysis there, Mr Dancer.

    The Russian efforts in the 1812 Campaign and the alliance that defeated the French at Leipzig were clearly of no importance.

    It's also accepted that even if Napoleon had beaten Wellington at Waterloo, significant Prussian and Russian forces would have been on the French in a few days.

    We shouldn't also forget the role of Blucher at Waterloo who undoubtedly ensured French victory whereas a bloody draw looked the most likely outcome had the Prussians not arrived.

    As a historian, I'm happy to acknowledge the influential role Britain has played - in WW2 the period 1940-41 was pivotal to the outcome but it can't be forgotten that ultimate victory was mainly down to the Russians and the sheer logistical superiority of the Americans which overcame the superiority, in my view, of the Germans in technology in many areas. Yes, we played a significant role but ours wasn't the only role and in the end probably not the most significant except from keeping the struggle going alone after the fall of France.
    Bletchley Park, the Royal Navy and aviation technology made a notable contribution, and the Allies wouldn't have had the same level of global reach without imperial forces.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,636
    She now knows this is the way to win majorities/make net seat gains, a pity she didn't realise before June 9th.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/884726199683092483
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,454

    eek said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:
    Or did she? Your Guardian link has that headline but the body text suggests she did not say that -- rather that Uber's treatment of its drivers is morally wrong, and that is why she does not use Uber.
    I was quoting the headline.
    She is merely saying what she personally does, not demanding that everyone else agrees - it's a sidebar to her main point that they should improve their employment practices.

    I think they'll need to - they've been effectively banned altogether in Denmark and I think one or two other places.
    I believe they are banned in Germany. I use them in Austria and Finland simply because they are more convenient than taxis - price is irrelevant as I expense it anyway....
    I never, ever use them in London.

    Black cab drivers have spent years doing the knowledge in their own time and at their own expense, and are by far the safest cabs to take.
    From my perspective, as a full-time wheelchair user, Uber doesn't work for me at all. Black cabs all have to be accessible (which some will see as wasteful red-tape but which makes an enourmous difference to me and others like me).

    I can see Uber driving black cabs out of business which would be a regressive step for me personally :disappointed:
    Uber does do wheelchair accessible cars with appropriately trained drivers.

    (That said it is a matter of putting the wheelchair in the boot and you in the car "manually".)
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,454
    TOPPING said:

    eek said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:
    Or did she? Your Guardian link has that headline but the body text suggests she did not say that -- rather that Uber's treatment of its drivers is morally wrong, and that is why she does not use Uber.
    I was quoting the headline.
    She is merely saying what she personally does, not demanding that everyone else agrees - it's a sidebar to her main point that they should improve their employment practices.

    I think they'll need to - they've been effectively banned altogether in Denmark and I think one or two other places.
    I believe they are banned in Germany. I use them in Austria and Finland simply because they are more convenient than taxis - price is irrelevant as I expense it anyway....
    I never, ever use them in London.

    Black cab drivers have spent years doing the knowledge in their own time and at their own expense, and are by far the safest cabs to take.
    From my perspective, as a full-time wheelchair user, Uber doesn't work for me at all. Black cabs all have to be accessible (which some will see as wasteful red-tape but which makes an enourmous difference to me and others like me).

    I can see Uber driving black cabs out of business which would be a regressive step for me personally :disappointed:
    Uber does do wheelchair accessible cars with appropriately trained drivers.

    (That said it is a matter of putting the wheelchair in the boot and you in the car "manually".)
    I didn't see that they also have UBERWAV as mentioned above.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,929

    She now knows this is the way to win majorities/make net seat gains, a pity she didn't realise before June 9th.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/884726199683092483

    But not to win refernda... ;)
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,636
    GIN1138 said:

    She now knows this is the way to win majorities/make net seat gains, a pity she didn't realise before June 9th.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/884726199683092483

    But not to win refernda... ;)
    George won 2 out of 3 plebiscites he was involved in.
  • Options
    nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    GIN1138 said:

    She now knows this is the way to win majorities/make net seat gains, a pity she didn't realise before June 9th.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/884726199683092483

    But not to win refernda... ;)
    Problem she was trying to fake populism when she's already had been part of a government that was undertaking some pretty harsh austerity for 7 years.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,014
    Mr. Eagles, Pyrrhus won two out of the three battles he fought against the Romans.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,903

    Pulpstar said:

    then a Belgian mandate until independence

    OK That explains it, the Belgians were shocking colonists.
    The worst period was when Leopold ran the Congo Free State as a private colony. When the Belgian government took over in 1908 things began to improve. It was a fairly well developed place, albeit heavily racist, by the time it gained independence in the 1960's and turned into a kleptocracy.
    A process aided by the Belgians/CIA conspiring to have its democratically elected leader assassinated.
    (Along with possible British collusion - the late, and rather unpleasant, Daphne Park allegedly claimed to have organised the killing.)
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,432
    Any bye election for this government would have to go on the list of mistakes made by May since her appointment (assuming that there is still room on the charge sheet).
    It would be a chance to kick this government out. It should be avoided at all costs.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,694

    Pulpstar said:

    FF43 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Pulpstar said:

    then a Belgian mandate until independence

    OK That explains it, the Belgians were shocking colonists.
    Who were the good colonists? Let me guess...
    The Norman French?

    PS Or the Anglo Saxons?
    The Romans tamed and civilised the savages living here I think.
    So the Romans say!

    Romoaners.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,811

    Mr. Eagles, Pyrrhus won two out of the three battles he fought against the Romans.

    Pyrrhus' victories weren't actually Pyrrhic victories - In the understood sense of an apparent victory that was really a defeat. They were stalemates that failed to achieve their strategic purpose.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,929

    GIN1138 said:

    She now knows this is the way to win majorities/make net seat gains, a pity she didn't realise before June 9th.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/884726199683092483

    But not to win refernda... ;)
    George won 2 out of 3 plebiscites he was involved in.

    GIN1138 said:

    She now knows this is the way to win majorities/make net seat gains, a pity she didn't realise before June 9th.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/884726199683092483

    But not to win refernda... ;)
    George won 2 out of 3 plebiscites he was involved in.
    Was found out in the end though...
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,432
    Interesting comments about Uber. Edinburgh has got itself in a bizarre situation where they refuse to issue more taxi plates. The inevitable consequence is that those plates in existence have become valuable. They are held by dormant companies (don't ask) which change hands at £40k each. Very few taxi drivers can afford this so they do a profit share with those who hold the plate, typically giving 30% or more of their earnings (plus repairs etc) to the plate holder.

    It is one of the worst and most incompetent administrative systems I have come across and those who are being ripped off in this way hate Uber with a vengeance. Uber must be regulated like a taxi company, not an internet company. Anything else is completely unfair.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,014
    Mr. 43, been a while since I read the bio, but not sure I entirely agree. The victories were Pyrrhus' but the disproportionate resources of Rome (nor helped by the fact Pyrrhus had lost many men to storms) meant the city could absorb losses far more easily than Pyrrhus could.
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    nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    calum said:
    Good for Boris.

    If the EU demand 100 billion or something stupid it would serve to galvanise the Leavers, any Remainer saying we have to pay up would be laughed at.

    It would kill Soubry and Chukkup's little party straight away.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,014
    Apologies but I must be off to perambulate in the precipitation (irksome to walk off halfway through a historical discussion, but there we are). F1 markets starting to go up on Ladbrokes, so I'll look at them properly later.
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,925
    On Uber - let me lose 2-3 billion dollars a year and I'll show you a disruptive business too.
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    DavidL said:

    Interesting comments about Uber. Edinburgh has got itself in a bizarre situation where they refuse to issue more taxi plates. The inevitable consequence is that those plates in existence have become valuable. They are held by dormant companies (don't ask) which change hands at £40k each. Very few taxi drivers can afford this so they do a profit share with those who hold the plate, typically giving 30% or more of their earnings (plus repairs etc) to the plate holder.

    It is one of the worst and most incompetent administrative systems I have come across and those who are being ripped off in this way hate Uber with a vengeance. Uber must be regulated like a taxi company, not an internet company. Anything else is completely unfair.

    Yes that's the same in Gib. In theory a licence costs £5 from the Govt. In practice they are the equivalent of a pension pot and are worth £200k

    The taxi "association" here is a cartel Mafia-like in its influence, political sway and outright intimidation.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,030

    I’d always assumed, perhaps lazily, that the mosquito nets were manufactured locally.

    One of the biggest contributors to economic advance in rural Thailand was the introduction of the cheap two-stroke motor vehicle. Another has been a rural scholarship programme, whereby, as IUI, bright lads (usually) at school were sent to agricultural college, and then back to their villages where they were given ‘royal’ land on the condition that they grew experimental crops and, if successful, encouraged their neighbours to do the same, thus diversifying a rice-dominated economy.

    IMV the way to raise people out of poverty is, to misrepresent a phrase, 'education, education, education'. Education has all sorts of benefits, both direct and indirect.

    The next most important way is to give them access to finance to start new ventures. In this manner, microfinancing / microcredit is great.
    History has shown that the best way to raise the wretched out of poverty is for them to be governed and administered by Anglo-Saxons.
    The history of India, China, Korea, Thailand etc would seem to contradict that. The history of Anglophone vs Francophone or Lusophone Africa isn't exactly a triumph either!
    We. As a rule Anglophone countries in Africa have come out of the Imperial age in a far better state than those of other former imperial holdings.
    Some have done well. Botswana is perhaps the most successful. Democracy from day one and 50 years of uninterrupted growth. Ghana is doing well now.

    But there is also Zimbabwe, Uganda, Sudan, Somaliland, Sierra Leone etc as a few examples of where things did not go well.

    Belgian decolonisation was catastrophically done, and the Portuguese collapse in 1975 too, though destabilisation by Anglophone countries didn't help these.

    The Francophone countries generally decolonised well initially, in part because of a Francophone elite and French continuing support, but more recently the rot has set in.
    The francophone countries have never really decolonised and also rank amongst the worst in Africa.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,432

    Apologies but I must be off to perambulate in the precipitation (irksome to walk off halfway through a historical discussion, but there we are). F1 markets starting to go up on Ladbrokes, so I'll look at them properly later.

    Brilliantly sunny here in Portugal once again today. Any precipitation is likely to be from mucking about in the pool.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,811

    Mr. 43, been a while since I read the bio, but not sure I entirely agree. The victories were Pyrrhus' but the disproportionate resources of Rome (nor helped by the fact Pyrrhus had lost many men to storms) meant the city could absorb losses far more easily than Pyrrhus could.

    My understanding is that Rome had captured a hill town from which they could control the Tarantum plain. Pyrrhus' aim was to recapture the town so Tarantum could reassert control over their hinterland . He won the battles but failed to shift the Romans from the town.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    It was no surprise to see Leavers so tone deaf to racist language. I see that in response pb has donned its collective pith helmet this morning.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,432
    GeoffM said:

    DavidL said:

    Interesting comments about Uber. Edinburgh has got itself in a bizarre situation where they refuse to issue more taxi plates. The inevitable consequence is that those plates in existence have become valuable. They are held by dormant companies (don't ask) which change hands at £40k each. Very few taxi drivers can afford this so they do a profit share with those who hold the plate, typically giving 30% or more of their earnings (plus repairs etc) to the plate holder.

    It is one of the worst and most incompetent administrative systems I have come across and those who are being ripped off in this way hate Uber with a vengeance. Uber must be regulated like a taxi company, not an internet company. Anything else is completely unfair.

    Yes that's the same in Gib. In theory a licence costs £5 from the Govt. In practice they are the equivalent of a pension pot and are worth £200k

    The taxi "association" here is a cartel Mafia-like in its influence, political sway and outright intimidation.
    The money laundering opportunities really should be getting closer attention too. I am not sure if the Edinburgh system is corrupt or just totally incompetent. I suspect the latter but it certainly attracts some interesting characters.
  • Options
    619619 Posts: 1,784
    GeoffM said:
    Show johnny foreigner what for. Bit of british steel and theyll go running

    RULE BRITTANIA, BRITTANIA RULES THE WAVES
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Freggles said:

    Charles said:

    619 said:

    Charles said:

    619 said:

    CD13 said:

    I heard the news reader having a fit of hysteria about "the worst possible word that can be used." Oh, I thought, she's called Corbyn a c*nt ( * for the snowflakes). She deserves what she's getting, I thought..

    Turns out it was 'n*gger' . Stupid, I thought, again she deserves what she's getting. Now I find it was an unscripted and old-fashioned figure of speech. What a let-down. Serves me right for taking notice of hysterics. Unwise, but a million miles away from being what I thought

    I'd always been curious of the derivation. Now, I suppose, with our modern censorship rules, I'll never know. You can listen to sexual expressions feely banded about on daytime TV, but non-sexual words cause the matrons to hold up their skirts and run for the hills.

    I'm still OK for religious naughty words? OK, then .... Jehovah, Jehovah. Jehovah!

    'n*gger' = 'old fashioned figure of speech'

    Right
    You're like a toddler pointing and saying "she said a bad word, Mommy" without any nuanced understanding of the context
    It doesnt really become less racist in context
    It does.

    It's outmoded, archaic and inappropriate. But not racist
    Rich old white man as gatekeeper of what's racist. You couldn't make it up.
    Less of the old please!!

    (Certainly if she had applied the phrase to an individual it would have been racist. But she didn't: she used it to describe an event that is completely unconnected to race.)
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited July 2017
    DavidL said:

    Interesting comments about Uber. Edinburgh has got itself in a bizarre situation where they refuse to issue more taxi plates. The inevitable consequence is that those plates in existence have become valuable. They are held by dormant companies (don't ask) which change hands at £40k each. Very few taxi drivers can afford this so they do a profit share with those who hold the plate, typically giving 30% or more of their earnings (plus repairs etc) to the plate holder.

    It is one of the worst and most incompetent administrative systems I have come across and those who are being ripped off in this way hate Uber with a vengeance. Uber must be regulated like a taxi company, not an internet company. Anything else is completely unfair.

    I think this is the case in many Italian cities as well. It's very difficult to become a taxi driver unless you know somebody who has a taxi permit (or whatever they call it).
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,432

    It was no surprise to see Leavers so tone deaf to racist language. I see that in response pb has donned its collective pith helmet this morning.

    Was there anyone who did not condemn this MP unequivocally yesterday? If so I must have missed it. But a bye election now would be suicidal.
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,925

    calum said:
    Good for Boris.

    If the EU demand 100 billion or something stupid it would serve to galvanise the Leavers, any Remainer saying we have to pay up would be laughed at.

    It would kill Soubry and Chukkup's little party straight away.
    Were we ever going to pay 100 billion!?

    Surely this is just Boris warming you up for the 'much reduced' new figure of xx billion.
    That and the proposed fake storm-out to show how tough we are and how we got a good deal.

    "Good for Boris" is probably the exact reaction he was looking for.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,811
    calum said:
    PS Mr Johnson also said the Government has not made any plans for a "no deal" Brexit because the UK will get a "great deal" in the negotiations.

    Talk is cheap; deals are expensive.

  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,799
    619 said:

    GeoffM said:
    RULE BRITTANIA, BRITTANIA RULES THE WAVES
    Even if she can't spell.....
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    nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    619 said:

    GeoffM said:
    Show johnny foreigner what for. Bit of british steel and theyll go running

    RULE BRITTANIA, BRITTANIA RULES THE WAVES
    Should we just bend over and give them whatever they damand?
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    DavidL said:

    It was no surprise to see Leavers so tone deaf to racist language. I see that in response pb has donned its collective pith helmet this morning.

    Was there anyone who did not condemn this MP unequivocally yesterday? If so I must have missed it. But a bye election now would be suicidal.
    She doesn't seem to have been condemned unequivocally by Bill Cash or John Redwood at the time. The original coterie of Leavers at which this view was aired seemed quite unfazed by it.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,424
    619 said:

    GeoffM said:
    Show johnny foreigner what for. Bit of british steel and theyll go running

    RULE BRITTANIA, BRITTANIA RULES THE WAVES
    Genuine question.

    Name any UK politician who would accept a divorce bill of between 60-100 billion to leave the EU.

    As I have said for days the amount of the divorce bill will be the defining moment. Boris words were undiplomatic but they could well resonate later this year throughout the UK
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    stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    Anything can happen in by elections. Neil Kinnock regularly won huge swings in by elections 1983-92, as have the Liberals for decades. No reason why Corbyn Labour could not win this seat in a by election, and then lose it again in a general election. The Tories have to lose 7 seats to lose their majority. It took John Major more than three years to lose 7 seats after 1992. So no general election before 2020.
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    nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    rkrkrk said:

    calum said:
    Good for Boris.

    If the EU demand 100 billion or something stupid it would serve to galvanise the Leavers, any Remainer saying we have to pay up would be laughed at.

    It would kill Soubry and Chukkup's little party straight away.
    Were we ever going to pay 100 billion!?

    Surely this is just Boris warming you up for the 'much reduced' new figure of xx billion.
    That and the proposed fake storm-out to show how tough we are and how we got a good deal.

    "Good for Boris" is probably the exact reaction he was looking for.
    It will be very interesting to see what figure they arrive at, I would honour the pensions of British MEP's and that's it.
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    nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    DavidL said:

    It was no surprise to see Leavers so tone deaf to racist language. I see that in response pb has donned its collective pith helmet this morning.

    Was there anyone who did not condemn this MP unequivocally yesterday? If so I must have missed it. But a bye election now would be suicidal.
    She doesn't seem to have been condemned unequivocally by Bill Cash or John Redwood at the time. The original coterie of Leavers at which this view was aired seemed quite unfazed by it.
    Have you checked all 625 MP's to gauge their reaction?
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,732
    rkrkrk said:

    calum said:
    Good for Boris.

    If the EU demand 100 billion or something stupid it would serve to galvanise the Leavers, any Remainer saying we have to pay up would be laughed at.

    It would kill Soubry and Chukkup's little party straight away.
    Were we ever going to pay 100 billion!?

    Surely this is just Boris warming you up for the 'much reduced' new figure of xx billion.
    That and the proposed fake storm-out to show how tough we are and how we got a good deal.

    "Good for Boris" is probably the exact reaction he was looking for.
    Yes Boris has got the Jingoists dangling from his puppet strings.
  • Options
    nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    619 said:

    GeoffM said:
    Show johnny foreigner what for. Bit of british steel and theyll go running

    RULE BRITTANIA, BRITTANIA RULES THE WAVES
    Genuine question.

    Name any UK politician who would accept a divorce bill of between 60-100 billion to leave the EU.

    As I have said for days the amount of the divorce bill will be the defining moment. Boris words were undiplomatic but they could well resonate later this year throughout the UK
    Clarke, Umunna, Soubry, Morgan etc they would all pay what ever is demanded.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,432

    DavidL said:

    It was no surprise to see Leavers so tone deaf to racist language. I see that in response pb has donned its collective pith helmet this morning.

    Was there anyone who did not condemn this MP unequivocally yesterday? If so I must have missed it. But a bye election now would be suicidal.
    She doesn't seem to have been condemned unequivocally by Bill Cash or John Redwood at the time. The original coterie of Leavers at which this view was aired seemed quite unfazed by it.
    I thought you meant on here. The fact May is not in a position to completely ignore those you have mentioned is one of the most distressing things about the current situation.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,424

    rkrkrk said:

    calum said:
    Good for Boris.

    If the EU demand 100 billion or something stupid it would serve to galvanise the Leavers, any Remainer saying we have to pay up would be laughed at.

    It would kill Soubry and Chukkup's little party straight away.
    Were we ever going to pay 100 billion!?

    Surely this is just Boris warming you up for the 'much reduced' new figure of xx billion.
    That and the proposed fake storm-out to show how tough we are and how we got a good deal.

    "Good for Boris" is probably the exact reaction he was looking for.
    Yes Boris has got the Jingoists dangling from his puppet strings.
    Do you think we should pay 60-100 billion to leave

    Indeed is anyone on here willing to say they would accept these sums to leave
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,799

    DavidL said:

    It was no surprise to see Leavers so tone deaf to racist language. I see that in response pb has donned its collective pith helmet this morning.

    Was there anyone who did not condemn this MP unequivocally yesterday? If so I must have missed it. But a bye election now would be suicidal.
    She doesn't seem to have been condemned unequivocally by Bill Cash or John Redwood at the time. The original coterie of Leavers at which this view was aired seemed quite unfazed by it.
    Have you checked all 625 MP's to gauge their reaction?
    Failure to unequivocally condemn in trenchant terms is definitive proof of racism. Unless you're Labour and it's Jews, in which case it's critique of Israeli oppression.....
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,424

    619 said:

    GeoffM said:
    Show johnny foreigner what for. Bit of british steel and theyll go running

    RULE BRITTANIA, BRITTANIA RULES THE WAVES
    Genuine question.

    Name any UK politician who would accept a divorce bill of between 60-100 billion to leave the EU.

    As I have said for days the amount of the divorce bill will be the defining moment. Boris words were undiplomatic but they could well resonate later this year throughout the UK
    Clarke, Umunna, Soubry, Morgan etc they would all pay what ever is demanded.
    Are you sure as they want to stay
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,432

    rkrkrk said:

    calum said:
    Good for Boris.

    If the EU demand 100 billion or something stupid it would serve to galvanise the Leavers, any Remainer saying we have to pay up would be laughed at.

    It would kill Soubry and Chukkup's little party straight away.
    Were we ever going to pay 100 billion!?

    Surely this is just Boris warming you up for the 'much reduced' new figure of xx billion.
    That and the proposed fake storm-out to show how tough we are and how we got a good deal.

    "Good for Boris" is probably the exact reaction he was looking for.
    Yes Boris has got the Jingoists dangling from his puppet strings.
    Do you think we should pay 60-100 billion to leave

    Indeed is anyone on here willing to say they would accept these sums to leave
    If that £60bn included the £40bn we are obliged to pay over the next two years and bought us the ongoing access we want, yes, absolutely.
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,060

    rkrkrk said:

    calum said:
    Good for Boris.

    If the EU demand 100 billion or something stupid it would serve to galvanise the Leavers, any Remainer saying we have to pay up would be laughed at.

    It would kill Soubry and Chukkup's little party straight away.
    Were we ever going to pay 100 billion!?

    Surely this is just Boris warming you up for the 'much reduced' new figure of xx billion.
    That and the proposed fake storm-out to show how tough we are and how we got a good deal.

    "Good for Boris" is probably the exact reaction he was looking for.
    Yes Boris has got the Jingoists dangling from his puppet strings.
    Do you think we should pay 60-100 billion to leave

    Indeed is anyone on here willing to say they would accept these sums to leave
    I would. It would be worth it just to cunt off Farage et al.
  • Options
    nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    619 said:

    GeoffM said:
    Show johnny foreigner what for. Bit of british steel and theyll go running

    RULE BRITTANIA, BRITTANIA RULES THE WAVES
    Genuine question.

    Name any UK politician who would accept a divorce bill of between 60-100 billion to leave the EU.

    As I have said for days the amount of the divorce bill will be the defining moment. Boris words were undiplomatic but they could well resonate later this year throughout the UK
    Clarke, Umunna, Soubry, Morgan etc they would all pay what ever is demanded.
    Are you sure as they want to stay
    That's true!
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,424
    DavidL said:

    rkrkrk said:

    calum said:
    Good for Boris.

    If the EU demand 100 billion or something stupid it would serve to galvanise the Leavers, any Remainer saying we have to pay up would be laughed at.

    It would kill Soubry and Chukkup's little party straight away.
    Were we ever going to pay 100 billion!?

    Surely this is just Boris warming you up for the 'much reduced' new figure of xx billion.
    That and the proposed fake storm-out to show how tough we are and how we got a good deal.

    "Good for Boris" is probably the exact reaction he was looking for.
    Yes Boris has got the Jingoists dangling from his puppet strings.
    Do you think we should pay 60-100 billion to leave

    Indeed is anyone on here willing to say they would accept these sums to leave
    If that £60bn included the £40bn we are obliged to pay over the next two years and bought us the ongoing access we want, yes, absolutely.
    Agree with that absolutely but that is not the way it is being explained at present
  • Options
    nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Dura_Ace said:

    rkrkrk said:

    calum said:
    Good for Boris.

    If the EU demand 100 billion or something stupid it would serve to galvanise the Leavers, any Remainer saying we have to pay up would be laughed at.

    It would kill Soubry and Chukkup's little party straight away.
    Were we ever going to pay 100 billion!?

    Surely this is just Boris warming you up for the 'much reduced' new figure of xx billion.
    That and the proposed fake storm-out to show how tough we are and how we got a good deal.

    "Good for Boris" is probably the exact reaction he was looking for.
    Yes Boris has got the Jingoists dangling from his puppet strings.
    Do you think we should pay 60-100 billion to leave

    Indeed is anyone on here willing to say they would accept these sums to leave
    I would. It would be worth it just to cunt off Farage et al.
    Pathetic.
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,925
    edited July 2017



    Do you think we should pay 60-100 billion to leave

    Indeed is anyone on here willing to say they would accept these sums to leave

    No. But it's hardly a negotiating triumph to avoid paying that much!

    Boris has (through a very well chosen slightly old-fashioned phrase) managed to get people saying good old Boris, when in reality he's demolished a straw man.

    This FT graphic is pretty good I think:
    https://www.ft.com/content/29fc1abc-2fe0-11e7-9555-23ef563ecf9a?mhq5j=e3

    At a glance we should be paying pensions and past commitments.
    That works out to roughly 45 billion, and we get 29.4 back... so about 16 billion net.

    Edit:
    Maybe throw in a bit extra to smooth market access?
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,424
    Dura_Ace said:

    rkrkrk said:

    calum said:
    Good for Boris.

    If the EU demand 100 billion or something stupid it would serve to galvanise the Leavers, any Remainer saying we have to pay up would be laughed at.

    It would kill Soubry and Chukkup's little party straight away.
    Were we ever going to pay 100 billion!?

    Surely this is just Boris warming you up for the 'much reduced' new figure of xx billion.
    That and the proposed fake storm-out to show how tough we are and how we got a good deal.

    "Good for Boris" is probably the exact reaction he was looking for.
    Yes Boris has got the Jingoists dangling from his puppet strings.
    Do you think we should pay 60-100 billion to leave

    Indeed is anyone on here willing to say they would accept these sums to leave
    I would. It would be worth it just to cunt off Farage et al.
    You will be in a substantial minority and it is nothing to do with Farage who I dislike with a passion
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,371
    calum said:
    Make him Prime Minister- immediately!
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,432

    DavidL said:

    rkrkrk said:

    calum said:
    Good for Boris.

    If the EU demand 100 billion or something stupid it would serve to galvanise the Leavers, any Remainer saying we have to pay up would be laughed at.

    It would kill Soubry and Chukkup's little party straight away.
    Were we ever going to pay 100 billion!?

    Surely this is just Boris warming you up for the 'much reduced' new figure of xx billion.
    That and the proposed fake storm-out to show how tough we are and how we got a good deal.

    "Good for Boris" is probably the exact reaction he was looking for.
    Yes Boris has got the Jingoists dangling from his puppet strings.
    Do you think we should pay 60-100 billion to leave

    Indeed is anyone on here willing to say they would accept these sums to leave
    If that £60bn included the £40bn we are obliged to pay over the next two years and bought us the ongoing access we want, yes, absolutely.
    Agree with that absolutely but that is not the way it is being explained at present
    Let's face it, almost nothing is being explained at the moment.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,424
    rkrkrk said:



    Do you think we should pay 60-100 billion to leave

    Indeed is anyone on here willing to say they would accept these sums to leave

    No. But it's hardly a negotiating triumph to avoid paying that much!

    Boris has (through a very well chosen slightly old-fashioned phrase) managed to get people saying good old Boris, when in reality he's demolished a straw man.

    This FT graphic is pretty good I think:
    https://www.ft.com/content/29fc1abc-2fe0-11e7-9555-23ef563ecf9a?mhq5j=e3

    At a glance we should be paying pensions and past commitments.
    That works out to roughly 45 billion, and we get 29.4 back... so about 16 billion net.
    I have no problem with 16 billion net
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,130
    Anorak said:

    Mr. Eagles, Belgium also has a splendid F1 circuit.

    Not to mention hilarious borders. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baarle-Nassau
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gtLxZiiuaXs
  • Options
    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,327
    calum said:
    It's now looking all but definite that Boris will become Tory leader and win his general election by a landslide. Think of all the political goodies he's been personally associated with: 350 million extra for the NHS, a trade deal with the EU that has all of benefits but none of the costs. And now this - a gargantuan saving running into literary hundreds of millions. I can't see any British party leader - not Churchill, not Thatcher, not Blair, certainly not Corbyn - being able to compete with this level of political capital. Boris is invincible!
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,424
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    rkrkrk said:

    calum said:
    Good for Boris.

    If the EU demand 100 billion or something stupid it would serve to galvanise the Leavers, any Remainer saying we have to pay up would be laughed at.

    It would kill Soubry and Chukkup's little party straight away.
    Were we ever going to pay 100 billion!?

    Surely this is just Boris warming you up for the 'much reduced' new figure of xx billion.
    That and the proposed fake storm-out to show how tough we are and how we got a good deal.

    "Good for Boris" is probably the exact reaction he was looking for.
    Yes Boris has got the Jingoists dangling from his puppet strings.
    Do you think we should pay 60-100 billion to leave

    Indeed is anyone on here willing to say they would accept these sums to leave
    If that £60bn included the £40bn we are obliged to pay over the next two years and bought us the ongoing access we want, yes, absolutely.
    Agree with that absolutely but that is not the way it is being explained at present
    Let's face it, almost nothing is being explained at the moment.
    Good observation - everyone needs a long summer recess - Corbyn will no doubt be doing his messiah appearances through the summer but there is plenty of sport and the start of football to ensure he is ignored
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,925
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    rkrkrk said:

    calum said:
    Good for Boris.

    If the EU demand 100 billion or something stupid it would serve to galvanise the Leavers, any Remainer saying we have to pay up would be laughed at.

    It would kill Soubry and Chukkup's little party straight away.
    Were we ever going to pay 100 billion!?

    Surely this is just Boris warming you up for the 'much reduced' new figure of xx billion.
    That and the proposed fake storm-out to show how tough we are and how we got a good deal.

    "Good for Boris" is probably the exact reaction he was looking for.
    Yes Boris has got the Jingoists dangling from his puppet strings.
    Do you think we should pay 60-100 billion to leave

    Indeed is anyone on here willing to say they would accept these sums to leave
    If that £60bn included the £40bn we are obliged to pay over the next two years and bought us the ongoing access we want, yes, absolutely.
    Agree with that absolutely but that is not the way it is being explained at present
    Let's face it, almost nothing is being explained at the moment.
    One thing that is going to be funny is when the more extreme elements of Remain say the exit bill is xx billion and it's the Brexiteers who are explaining how it's not that much because you should look at the 'net' amount since some of the money going to the EU will come back...
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,424
    rkrkrk said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    rkrkrk said:

    calum said:
    Good for Boris.

    If the EU demand 100 billion or something stupid it would serve to galvanise the Leavers, any Remainer saying we have to pay up would be laughed at.

    It would kill Soubry and Chukkup's little party straight away.
    Were we ever going to pay 100 billion!?

    Surely this is just Boris warming you up for the 'much reduced' new figure of xx billion.
    That and the proposed fake storm-out to show how tough we are and how we got a good deal.

    "Good for Boris" is probably the exact reaction he was looking for.
    Yes Boris has got the Jingoists dangling from his puppet strings.
    Do you think we should pay 60-100 billion to leave

    Indeed is anyone on here willing to say they would accept these sums to leave
    If that £60bn included the £40bn we are obliged to pay over the next two years and bought us the ongoing access we want, yes, absolutely.
    Agree with that absolutely but that is not the way it is being explained at present
    Let's face it, almost nothing is being explained at the moment.
    One thing that is going to be funny is when the more extreme elements of Remain say the exit bill is xx billion and it's the Brexiteers who are explaining how it's not that much because you should look at the 'net' amount since some of the money going to the EU will come back...
    The exit bill quoted is xxx billion not xx
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,971
    Afternoon all. Is it summer holiday time yet? Sounds like all the politicians and commentators could really do with a few weeks off with their families.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,424
    Sandpit said:

    Afternoon all. Is it summer holiday time yet? Sounds like all the politicians and commentators could really do with a few weeks off with their families.

    Few months would be better
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,432
    rkrkrk said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    rkrkrk said:

    calum said:
    Good for Boris.

    If the EU demand 100 billion or something stupid it would serve to galvanise the Leavers, any Remainer saying we have to pay up would be laughed at.

    It would kill Soubry and Chukkup's little party straight away.
    Were we ever going to pay 100 billion!?

    Surely this is just Boris warming you up for the 'much reduced' new figure of xx billion.
    That and the proposed fake storm-out to show how tough we are and how we got a good deal.

    "Good for Boris" is probably the exact reaction he was looking for.
    Yes Boris has got the Jingoists dangling from his puppet strings.
    Do you think we should pay 60-100 billion to leave

    Indeed is anyone on here willing to say they would accept these sums to leave
    If that £60bn included the £40bn we are obliged to pay over the next two years and bought us the ongoing access we want, yes, absolutely.
    Agree with that absolutely but that is not the way it is being explained at present
    Let's face it, almost nothing is being explained at the moment.
    One thing that is going to be funny is when the more extreme elements of Remain say the exit bill is xx billion and it's the Brexiteers who are explaining how it's not that much because you should look at the 'net' amount since some of the money going to the EU will come back...
    Even as a leaver I can see the irony and humour in that.

    But at the moment apples are being compared to guava fruit and literally meaningless figures are being thrown around by both sides. It's like the referendum never finished and it gets frankly tedious.
  • Options
    nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    rkrkrk said:



    Do you think we should pay 60-100 billion to leave

    Indeed is anyone on here willing to say they would accept these sums to leave

    No. But it's hardly a negotiating triumph to avoid paying that much!

    Boris has (through a very well chosen slightly old-fashioned phrase) managed to get people saying good old Boris, when in reality he's demolished a straw man.

    This FT graphic is pretty good I think:
    https://www.ft.com/content/29fc1abc-2fe0-11e7-9555-23ef563ecf9a?mhq5j=e3

    At a glance we should be paying pensions and past commitments.
    That works out to roughly 45 billion, and we get 29.4 back... so about 16 billion net.
    I have no problem with 16 billion net
    Before any amount is agreed would not the alleged debtor require copies of the fully audited and signed off accounts?
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    619 said:

    GeoffM said:
    Show johnny foreigner what for. Bit of british steel and theyll go running

    RULE BRITTANIA, BRITTANIA RULES THE WAVES
    Genuine question.

    Name any UK politician who would accept a divorce bill of between 60-100 billion to leave the EU.

    As I have said for days the amount of the divorce bill will be the defining moment. Boris words were undiplomatic but they could well resonate later this year throughout the UK
    Clarke, Umunna, Soubry, Morgan etc they would all pay what ever is demanded.
    Have any of them said anything like that?

    Not that I recall.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,424

    rkrkrk said:



    Do you think we should pay 60-100 billion to leave

    Indeed is anyone on here willing to say they would accept these sums to leave

    No. But it's hardly a negotiating triumph to avoid paying that much!

    Boris has (through a very well chosen slightly old-fashioned phrase) managed to get people saying good old Boris, when in reality he's demolished a straw man.

    This FT graphic is pretty good I think:
    https://www.ft.com/content/29fc1abc-2fe0-11e7-9555-23ef563ecf9a?mhq5j=e3

    At a glance we should be paying pensions and past commitments.
    That works out to roughly 45 billion, and we get 29.4 back... so about 16 billion net.
    I have no problem with 16 billion net
    Before any amount is agreed would not the alleged debtor require copies of the fully audited and signed off accounts?
    I like that comment - says it all about the EU
  • Options
    nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    619 said:

    GeoffM said:
    Show johnny foreigner what for. Bit of british steel and theyll go running

    RULE BRITTANIA, BRITTANIA RULES THE WAVES
    Genuine question.

    Name any UK politician who would accept a divorce bill of between 60-100 billion to leave the EU.

    As I have said for days the amount of the divorce bill will be the defining moment. Boris words were undiplomatic but they could well resonate later this year throughout the UK
    Clarke, Umunna, Soubry, Morgan etc they would all pay what ever is demanded.
    Have any of them said anything like that?

    Not that I recall.
    Do you seriously think that when the figure demanded by the EU is finally released they will say get lost, we're not paying that?
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,925
    DavidL said:



    Even as a leaver I can see the irony and humour in that.

    But at the moment apples are being compared to guava fruit and literally meaningless figures are being thrown around by both sides. It's like the referendum never finished and it gets frankly tedious.

    Completely agree.
    I feel on a kind of common sense level - most can agree we should pay for stuff we said we would pay for, and for pensions to British civil servants working for EU. We should only pay for things agreed after we leave if we want to - and I suspect we won't.

    Some kind of fee to get better access/cover our share of the costs of EU institutions regulating trade which I suspect we will still be using in some way seems reasonable - and the debate should hopefully focus on that.

    We aren't going to carry on paying into the CAP for 5 years after we've left I hope!

  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,424

    619 said:

    GeoffM said:
    Show johnny foreigner what for. Bit of british steel and theyll go running

    RULE BRITTANIA, BRITTANIA RULES THE WAVES
    Genuine question.

    Name any UK politician who would accept a divorce bill of between 60-100 billion to leave the EU.

    As I have said for days the amount of the divorce bill will be the defining moment. Boris words were undiplomatic but they could well resonate later this year throughout the UK
    Clarke, Umunna, Soubry, Morgan etc they would all pay what ever is demanded.
    Have any of them said anything like that?

    Not that I recall.
    As remainer's they would hardly accept an open cheque divorce bill
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,130

    DavidL said:

    rkrkrk said:

    calum said:
    Good for Boris.

    If the EU demand 100 billion or something stupid it would serve to galvanise the Leavers, any Remainer saying we have to pay up would be laughed at.

    It would kill Soubry and Chukkup's little party straight away.
    Were we ever going to pay 100 billion!?

    Surely this is just Boris warming you up for the 'much reduced' new figure of xx billion.
    That and the proposed fake storm-out to show how tough we are and how we got a good deal.

    "Good for Boris" is probably the exact reaction he was looking for.
    Yes Boris has got the Jingoists dangling from his puppet strings.
    Do you think we should pay 60-100 billion to leave

    Indeed is anyone on here willing to say they would accept these sums to leave
    If that £60bn included the £40bn we are obliged to pay over the next two years and bought us the ongoing access we want, yes, absolutely.
    Agree with that absolutely but that is not the way it is being explained at present
    That's because the EU is engaged in the psychological practice of anchoring, while the UK government is really keen to be able to claim a big victory by getting the number reduced.

    Assuming we come to a deal, it will likely involve:

    (a) us taking responsibility for the pensions of British MEPs and British Eurocrats (up until the cutoff point)
    (b) an adjustment for the share of the EU assets, in particularly the stake in the EIB
    and
    (c) payments we make during the transition period counting against the final sum

    So, let's say we pay £5bn/year during a four year transition arrangement. That's £20bn. The 'notional' on the pensions will be pegged at £15bn (although the real NPV is probably half that), and the share of EU assets will come in around £30bn.

    Now, have we paid £65bn? Or have we taken on a few pension liabilities that are probably worth less than £10bn at today's prices?
  • Options
    nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Following my buy of Everton points at 59 I am also considering a more speculative buy of Swansea points at 39.5, but I will wait to see what happens to Gylfi Siggurdson first.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,130

    rkrkrk said:



    Do you think we should pay 60-100 billion to leave

    Indeed is anyone on here willing to say they would accept these sums to leave

    No. But it's hardly a negotiating triumph to avoid paying that much!

    Boris has (through a very well chosen slightly old-fashioned phrase) managed to get people saying good old Boris, when in reality he's demolished a straw man.

    This FT graphic is pretty good I think:
    https://www.ft.com/content/29fc1abc-2fe0-11e7-9555-23ef563ecf9a?mhq5j=e3

    At a glance we should be paying pensions and past commitments.
    That works out to roughly 45 billion, and we get 29.4 back... so about 16 billion net.
    I have no problem with 16 billion net
    Before any amount is agreed would not the alleged debtor require copies of the fully audited and signed off accounts?
    The EU's Court of Auditors has never had any issue with calculating its assets and liabilities. The reason it does not sign off on the accounts is because the level of control on payments is not at a sufficiently high level.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,694
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    rkrkrk said:

    calum said:
    Good for Boris.

    If the EU demand 100 billion or something stupid it would serve to galvanise the Leavers, any Remainer saying we have to pay up would be laughed at.

    It would kill Soubry and Chukkup's little party straight away.
    Were we ever going to pay 100 billion!?

    Surely this is just Boris warming you up for the 'much reduced' new figure of xx billion.
    That and the proposed fake storm-out to show how tough we are and how we got a good deal.

    "Good for Boris" is probably the exact reaction he was looking for.
    Yes Boris has got the Jingoists dangling from his puppet strings.
    Do you think we should pay 60-100 billion to leave

    Indeed is anyone on here willing to say they would accept these sums to leave
    If that £60bn included the £40bn we are obliged to pay over the next two years and bought us the ongoing access we want, yes, absolutely.
    Agree with that absolutely but that is not the way it is being explained at present
    That's because the EU is engaged in the psychological practice of anchoring, while the UK government is really keen to be able to claim a big victory by getting the number reduced.

    Assuming we come to a deal, it will likely involve:

    (a) us taking responsibility for the pensions of British MEPs and British Eurocrats (up until the cutoff point)
    (b) an adjustment for the share of the EU assets, in particularly the stake in the EIB
    and
    (c) payments we make during the transition period counting against the final sum

    So, let's say we pay £5bn/year during a four year transition arrangement. That's £20bn. The 'notional' on the pensions will be pegged at £15bn (although the real NPV is probably half that), and the share of EU assets will come in around £30bn.

    Now, have we paid £65bn? Or have we taken on a few pension liabilities that are probably worth less than £10bn at today's prices?
    EU citizens rights is going to be the stickler, not the money.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,130

    619 said:

    GeoffM said:
    Show johnny foreigner what for. Bit of british steel and theyll go running

    RULE BRITTANIA, BRITTANIA RULES THE WAVES
    Genuine question.

    Name any UK politician who would accept a divorce bill of between 60-100 billion to leave the EU.

    As I have said for days the amount of the divorce bill will be the defining moment. Boris words were undiplomatic but they could well resonate later this year throughout the UK
    Clarke, Umunna, Soubry, Morgan etc they would all pay what ever is demanded.
    Have any of them said anything like that?

    Not that I recall.
    Do you seriously think that when the figure demanded by the EU is finally released they will say get lost, we're not paying that?
    I don't think it works like that. The UK and the EU are negotiating - as we speak - over the bill. The only sum that will be officially released will be the negotiated settlement, assuming there is one.
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    For me, the main problem with what this MP said is not even that she used the "n-word". It's that she was treating a horrible and shameful period of history as something to make light of.

    To me it's the equivalent of that horrible expression that kids use "sweating like a Jew in a shower" -- that expression might not explicitly use an anti-semitic slur, but the offensive part is that it's making light of something disgusting.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,811

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    rkrkrk said:

    calum said:
    Good for Boris.

    If the EU demand 100 billion or something stupid it would serve to galvanise the Leavers, any Remainer saying we have to pay up would be laughed at.

    It would kill Soubry and Chukkup's little party straight away.
    Were we ever going to pay 100 billion!?

    Surely this is just Boris warming you up for the 'much reduced' new figure of xx billion.
    That and the proposed fake storm-out to show how tough we are and how we got a good deal.

    "Good for Boris" is probably the exact reaction he was looking for.
    Yes Boris has got the Jingoists dangling from his puppet strings.
    Do you think we should pay 60-100 billion to leave

    Indeed is anyone on here willing to say they would accept these sums to leave
    If that £60bn included the £40bn we are obliged to pay over the next two years and bought us the ongoing access we want, yes, absolutely.
    Agree with that absolutely but that is not the way it is being explained at present
    That's because the EU is engaged in the psychological practice of anchoring, while the UK government is really keen to be able to claim a big victory by getting the number reduced.

    Assuming we come to a deal, it will likely involve:

    (a) us taking responsibility for the pensions of British MEPs and British Eurocrats (up until the cutoff point)
    (b) an adjustment for the share of the EU assets, in particularly the stake in the EIB
    and
    (c) payments we make during the transition period counting against the final sum

    So, let's say we pay £5bn/year during a four year transition arrangement. That's £20bn. The 'notional' on the pensions will be pegged at £15bn (although the real NPV is probably half that), and the share of EU assets will come in around £30bn.

    Now, have we paid £65bn? Or have we taken on a few pension liabilities that are probably worth less than £10bn at today's prices?
    EU citizens rights is going to be the stickler, not the money.
    EU citizen rights were supposed to be the easy one. But yes I agree. The money is a haggle. Actually the UK Government is likely to WANT to pay out large sums of money to the EU, to buy influence. It's a partial substitute for having a vote.
  • Options
    I'd liked the idea in the article that with "the Tories generally being Labour in the polls".....

    Do you mean being behind Labour?

    Or actually "being Labour" (i.e. a bit Ed Milibandy) ;-)
  • Options
    nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    rcs1000 said:

    rkrkrk said:



    Do you think we should pay 60-100 billion to leave

    Indeed is anyone on here willing to say they would accept these sums to leave

    No. But it's hardly a negotiating triumph to avoid paying that much!

    Boris has (through a very well chosen slightly old-fashioned phrase) managed to get people saying good old Boris, when in reality he's demolished a straw man.

    This FT graphic is pretty good I think:
    https://www.ft.com/content/29fc1abc-2fe0-11e7-9555-23ef563ecf9a?mhq5j=e3

    At a glance we should be paying pensions and past commitments.
    That works out to roughly 45 billion, and we get 29.4 back... so about 16 billion net.
    I have no problem with 16 billion net
    Before any amount is agreed would not the alleged debtor require copies of the fully audited and signed off accounts?
    The EU's Court of Auditors has never had any issue with calculating its assets and liabilities. The reason it does not sign off on the accounts is because the level of control on payments is not at a sufficiently high level.
    I understand but surely if things get nasty then we are entitled to see where the billions we have paid in over the years has been spent?

    If the level of control is insufficient then that is their problem not ours.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,130

    rcs1000 said:

    rkrkrk said:



    Do you think we should pay 60-100 billion to leave

    Indeed is anyone on here willing to say they would accept these sums to leave

    No. But it's hardly a negotiating triumph to avoid paying that much!

    Boris has (through a very well chosen slightly old-fashioned phrase) managed to get people saying good old Boris, when in reality he's demolished a straw man.

    This FT graphic is pretty good I think:
    https://www.ft.com/content/29fc1abc-2fe0-11e7-9555-23ef563ecf9a?mhq5j=e3

    At a glance we should be paying pensions and past commitments.
    That works out to roughly 45 billion, and we get 29.4 back... so about 16 billion net.
    I have no problem with 16 billion net
    Before any amount is agreed would not the alleged debtor require copies of the fully audited and signed off accounts?
    The EU's Court of Auditors has never had any issue with calculating its assets and liabilities. The reason it does not sign off on the accounts is because the level of control on payments is not at a sufficiently high level.
    I understand but surely if things get nasty then we are entitled to see where the billions we have paid in over the years has been spent?

    If the level of control is insufficient then that is their problem not ours.
    If it gets nasty we'll walk away without a deal. Of course, that will have its own serious complications for the UK economy, especially given Dr Fox's current failures to replicate any of the EU's existing trade relationships.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,130
    Danny565 said:

    For me, the main problem with what this MP said is not even that she used the "n-word". It's that she was treating a horrible and shameful period of history as something to make light of.

    To me it's the equivalent of that horrible expression that kids use "sweating like a Jew in a shower" -- that expression might not explicitly use an anti-semitic slur, but the offensive part is that it's making light of something disgusting.

    Showering?
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,636

    I'd liked the idea in the article that with "the Tories generally being Labour in the polls".....

    Do you mean being behind Labour?

    Or actually "being Labour" (i.e. a bit Ed Milibandy) ;-)

    I'm blaming auto-correct.

    It should be 'behind' not 'being'
  • Options
    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    rkrkrk said:

    calum said:
    Good for Boris.

    If the EU demand 100 billion or something stupid it would serve to galvanise the Leavers, any Remainer saying we have to pay up would be laughed at.

    It would kill Soubry and Chukkup's little party straight away.
    Were we ever going to pay 100 billion!?

    Surely this is just Boris warming you up for the 'much reduced' new figure of xx billion.
    That and the proposed fake storm-out to show how tough we are and how we got a good deal.

    "Good for Boris" is probably the exact reaction he was looking for.
    Yes Boris has got the Jingoists dangling from his puppet strings.
    Do you think we should pay 60-100 billion to leave

    Indeed is anyone on here willing to say they would accept these sums to leave
    If that £60bn included the £40bn we are obliged to pay over the next two years and bought us the ongoing access we want, yes, absolutely.
    Agree with that absolutely but that is not the way it is being explained at present
    That's because the EU is engaged in the psychological practice of anchoring, while the UK government is really keen to be able to claim a big victory by getting the number reduced.

    Assuming we come to a deal, it will likely involve:

    (a) us taking responsibility for the pensions of British MEPs and British Eurocrats (up until the cutoff point)
    (b) an adjustment for the share of the EU assets, in particularly the stake in the EIB
    and
    (c) payments we make during the transition period counting against the final sum

    So, let's say we pay £5bn/year during a four year transition arrangement. That's £20bn. The 'notional' on the pensions will be pegged at £15bn (although the real NPV is probably half that), and the share of EU assets will come in around £30bn.

    Now, have we paid £65bn? Or have we taken on a few pension liabilities that are probably worth less than £10bn at today's prices?
    You think a) will be resolved as us just paying for the British EU employees? I imagine the EU are pushing for it to be a percentage of the total EU pension costs related to how much liability has been built up during our time in the EU.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,176
    rcs1000 said:

    If it gets nasty we'll walk away without a deal.

    If it gets nasty the UK government will crater and a new government will to to Brussels with a new approach. The idea that the UK government would have the strength to walk away is laughable.
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    @Danny565

    Well done for shoehorning that irrelevant piece of unpleasantness into the thread. You may still be in time to delete it
  • Options
    nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rkrkrk said:



    Do you think we should pay 60-100 billion to leave

    Indeed is anyone on here willing to say they would accept these sums to leave

    No. But it's hardly a negotiating triumph to avoid paying that much!

    Boris has (through a very well chosen slightly old-fashioned phrase) managed to get people saying good old Boris, when in reality he's demolished a straw man.

    This FT graphic is pretty good I think:
    https://www.ft.com/content/29fc1abc-2fe0-11e7-9555-23ef563ecf9a?mhq5j=e3

    At a glance we should be paying pensions and past commitments.
    That works out to roughly 45 billion, and we get 29.4 back... so about 16 billion net.
    I have no problem with 16 billion net
    Before any amount is agreed would not the alleged debtor require copies of the fully audited and signed off accounts?
    The EU's Court of Auditors has never had any issue with calculating its assets and liabilities. The reason it does not sign off on the accounts is because the level of control on payments is not at a sufficiently high level.
    I understand but surely if things get nasty then we are entitled to see where the billions we have paid in over the years has been spent?

    If the level of control is insufficient then that is their problem not ours.
    If it gets nasty we'll walk away without a deal. Of course, that will have its own serious complications for the UK economy, especially given Dr Fox's current failures to replicate any of the EU's existing trade relationships.
    I agree
  • Options
    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,327
    edited July 2017
    rcs1000 said:

    619 said:

    GeoffM said:
    Show johnny foreigner what for. Bit of british steel and theyll go running

    RULE BRITTANIA, BRITTANIA RULES THE WAVES
    Genuine question.

    Name any UK politician who would accept a divorce bill of between 60-100 billion to leave the EU.

    As I have said for days the amount of the divorce bill will be the defining moment. Boris words were undiplomatic but they could well resonate later this year throughout the UK
    Clarke, Umunna, Soubry, Morgan etc they would all pay what ever is demanded.
    Have any of them said anything like that?

    Not that I recall.
    Do you seriously think that when the figure demanded by the EU is finally released they will say get lost, we're not paying that?
    I don't think it works like that. The UK and the EU are negotiating - as we speak - over the bill. The only sum that will be officially released will be the negotiated settlement, assuming there is one.
    Can that be right though? Boris was wholeheartedly agreeing with the following remark from Philip Hollobone MP:

    Since we joined the common market on January 1 1973 until the day we leave, we will have given the EU and its predecessors, in today’s money, in real terms, a total of £209bn. [...] Will you make it clear to the EU that if they want a penny piece more then they can go whistle?

    So it's now explicit: the EU won't get a bean. (Or is your analysis correct and Boris isn't in the loop?)
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited July 2017
    Ishmael_Z said:

    @Danny565

    Well done for shoehorning that irrelevant piece of unpleasantness into the thread. You may still be in time to delete it

    ?

    The thread header is about Anne Marie Morris (implicitly at least).
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    FF43 said:

    calum said:
    PS Mr Johnson also said the Government has not made any plans for a "no deal" Brexit because the UK will get a "great deal" in the negotiations.

    Talk is cheap; deals are expensive.

    No plans at all is doubly stupid. It may well happen, and certainly is a requirement for any threat of walkout to be vaguely plausible.

    Boris's "it'll be alright on the night" amateurism does not inspire confidence.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,130
    JonathanD said:

    You think a) will be resolved as us just paying for the British EU employees? I imagine the EU are pushing for it to be a percentage of the total EU pension costs related to how much liability has been built up during our time in the EU.

    Isn't it a little more complicated than that?

    Britain has been a member of the EU since 1973. We will argue that we have no responsibility for the pension liabilities accrued before its membership. They will argue that when we joined we implicitly took on those liabilities. There is also the issue that lots of countries have joined recently, but liabilities associated with their MEPs and Eurocrats will currently be small.

    Add it all together, and the desire that we limit ongoing payments, it makes much more sense for us to simply take responsibility for our MPs and Eurocrats. (Especially as the UK government's cost of capital is lower than the EU's.)
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,130

    rcs1000 said:

    619 said:

    GeoffM said:
    Show johnny foreigner what for. Bit of british steel and theyll go running

    RULE BRITTANIA, BRITTANIA RULES THE WAVES
    Genuine question.

    Name any UK politician who would accept a divorce bill of between 60-100 billion to leave the EU.

    As I have said for days the amount of the divorce bill will be the defining moment. Boris words were undiplomatic but they could well resonate later this year throughout the UK
    Clarke, Umunna, Soubry, Morgan etc they would all pay what ever is demanded.
    Have any of them said anything like that?

    Not that I recall.
    Do you seriously think that when the figure demanded by the EU is finally released they will say get lost, we're not paying that?
    I don't think it works like that. The UK and the EU are negotiating - as we speak - over the bill. The only sum that will be officially released will be the negotiated settlement, assuming there is one.
    Can that be right though? Boris was wholeheartedly agreeing with the following remark from Philip Hollobone MP:

    Since we joined the common market on January 1 1973 until the day we leave, we will have given the EU and its predecessors, in today’s money, in real terms, a total of £209bn. [...] Will you make it clear to the EU that if they want a penny piece more then they can go whistle?

    So it's now explicit: the EU won't get a bean. (Or is your analysis correct and Boris isn't in the loop?)
    I would be very surprised if we can walk away from our share of pension liabilities.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,788
    DavidL said:

    Interesting comments about Uber. Edinburgh has got itself in a bizarre situation where they refuse to issue more taxi plates. The inevitable consequence is that those plates in existence have become valuable. They are held by dormant companies (don't ask) which change hands at £40k each. Very few taxi drivers can afford this so they do a profit share with those who hold the plate, typically giving 30% or more of their earnings (plus repairs etc) to the plate holder.

    It is one of the worst and most incompetent administrative systems I have come across and those who are being ripped off in this way hate Uber with a vengeance. Uber must be regulated like a taxi company, not an internet company. Anything else is completely unfair.

    @DavidL

    Could you clarify - who are being ripped off ? Do you mean the taxi drivers by the Council?

    If so, then they are together monopolists running a dying business model, and we should not pander to them.

This discussion has been closed.