In seats terms only, she has done better owe her the same level of duty.
There seems this inbuilt assumption among Conservatives that they will always have the support of 40%
As I have said before, one or
If the Tories don't tack significantly back to the centre, they will be the ones to leak votes to any resurgent centrist party. Being out of government gives Corbyn's Labour something of a free pass.
They are tacking to the centre. The Conservatives are supporting energy caps, apprenticeship schemes, limiting immigration and Brexit. These are all positions that are supported by the middle of public opinion.
The Tories are a super pragmatic party with a very strong survival instinct. I ments.
That used to be true of the Tories, but they lose that pragmatism when it gets to the subject of Europe. A centrist revival is more likely to hit the Tories than Labour.
Which party will have the best run up to the conference season? my money is on Labour. May must be bricking it about facing conference.
A Vince Cable led LDs is more likely to win over Labour voters than Tory, a Normal Lamb led LDs would have been the reverse
We will see.
I think the Tories will struggle to hold onto their new voters, and also the pragmatic europhiles.
If the next general election is something like Tories 42% Labour 38% LDs 10% the Tories could even get a tiny majority if they hold their seats in Scotland without winning over a single voter who voted for Corbyn last time or winning back a single Europhile who voted for Cameron in 2015 but went Labour or LD this time
Conservatives will be nearer 32% next GE after 4 years of misgovernment .
So you keep saying but 42% voted against Corbyn this time, they are quite likely to do so again
You keep pushing this rosie Conservative scenario but 42% will not vote against Corbyn again when the alternative is a Conservative government that has demonstrated its ineptitude over the 4/5 years that they did so previously .
So you keep saying but as a partisan LD and anti Tory I would expect you to say that
In seats terms only, she has done better owe her the same level of duty.
There seems this inbuilt assumption among
If the Tories don't tack significantly back to the centre, they will be the ones to leak votes to any resurgent centrist party. Being out of government gives Corbyn's Labour something of a free pass.
They are tacking to the centre. The Conservatives are supporting energy caps, apprenticeship schemes, limiting immigration and Brexit. These are all positions that are supported by the middle of public opinion.
The Tories are a super pragmatic party with a very strong survival instinct. I ments.
That used to be true of the Tories, but they lose that pragmatism when
A Vince Cable led LDs is more likely to win over Labour voters than Tory, a Normal Lamb led LDs would have been the reverse
We will see.
I think the Tories will struggle to hold onto their new voters, and also the pragmatic europhiles.
If the next general election is something like Tories 42% Labour 38% LDs 10% ime
Equally there are Tory seats Labour could win on a similar swing to them (which is more likely).
The scenario I put forward was a Cable led LDs taking 2% off Labour, Tories unchanged relative to 2017
Why do you think a Cable (Part of the coalition govt) will take votes of Corbyns Labour? Hes already defended tuition fees.
Hell, he is just as likely to win Lib dem seats im Richmond etc against Tories. And you think all Tory voters from last month will be ok with the DUP pact or wont be willing to switch to a more leaderlike Corbyn? Or that places like Putney or Amber Rudds seat wont have more non-3rd party voters vote to get rid of them?
Why do you think a Cable (Part of the coalition govt) will take votes of Corbyns Labour? Hes already defended tuition fees.
Hell, he is just as likely to win Lib dem seats im Richmond etc against Tories. And you think all Tory voters from last month will be ok with the DUP pact or wont be willing to switch to a more leaderlike Corbyn? Or that places like Putney or Amber Rudds seat wont have more non-3rd party voters vote to get rid of them?
In seats terms only, she has done better owe her the same level of duty.
There seems this inbuilt assumption among Conservatives that they will always have the support of 40%
As I have said before, one or
If the Tories don't tack significantly back to the centre, they will be the ones to leak votes to any resurgent centrist party. Being out of government gives Corbyn's Labour something of a free pass.
They are tacking to the centre. The Conservatives are supporting energy caps, apprenticeship schemes, limiting immigration and Brexit. These are all positions that are supported by the middle of public opinion.
The Tories are a super pragmatic party with a very strong survival instinct. I ments.
That used to be true of the Tories, but they lose that pragmatism when it gets to the subject of Europe. A centrist revival is more likely to hit the Tories than Labour.
Which party will have the best run up to the conference season? my money is on Labour. May must be bricking it about facing conference.
A Vince Cable led LDs is more likely to win over Labour voters than Tory, a Normal Lamb led LDs would have been the reverse
We will see.
I think the Tories will struggle to hold onto their new voters, and also the pragmatic europhiles.
If the next general election is something like Tories 42% Labour 38% LDs 10% the Tories could even get a tiny majority if they hold their seats in Scotland without winning over a single voter who voted for Corbyn last time or winning back a single Europhile who voted for Cameron in 2015 but went Labour or LD this time
Conservatives will be nearer 32% next GE after 4 years of misgovernment .
So you keep saying but 42% voted against Corbyn this time, they are quite likely to do so again
So you keep saying but as a partisan LD and anti Tory I would expect you to say that
So you think the current govt will be uber competent and will make a massive success of Brexit?
Why do you think a Cable (Part of the coalition govt) will take votes of Corbyns Labour? Hes already defended tuition fees.
Hell, he is just as likely to win Lib dem seats im Richmond etc against Tories. And you think all Tory voters from last month will be ok with the DUP pact or wont be willing to switch to a more leaderlike Corbyn? Or that places like Putney or Amber Rudds seat wont have more non-3rd party voters vote to get rid of them?
Thats a lot of assumption.
Cable is a left winger (a former Labour candidate) and a number of soft Brexiteers/Remainers who are relatively moderate voted for Corbyn rather than a social conservative like Farron, they could switch to a Cable led LDs. A 2% swing from Labour to LDs would see the Tories pick up 12 Labour seats, lose 2 to the LDs and the LDs regain Sheffield Hallam from Labour.
It is quite possible as I said in 2019 Boris will take over shortly after Brexit is completed and call an election and Tories would have the chance to vote to give him a small overall majority free of the shackles of the DUP!
One new factor introduced by Vince Cable is a reasonably persuasive voice attacking the Corbyn McDonnell economic programme. Combine that with the Tories actually campaigning on the economy and more media scrutiny and I believe that Labour will be on the defensive and unable to defend effectively. One of Farron's errors was no serious attacking of McDonell's credibility.
Why do you think a Cable (Part of the coalition govt) will take votes of Corbyns Labour? Hes already defended tuition fees.
Hell, he is just as likely to win Lib dem seats im Richmond etc against Tories. And you think all Tory voters from last month will be ok with the DUP pact or wont be willing to switch to a more leaderlike Corbyn? Or that places like Putney or Amber Rudds seat wont have more non-3rd party voters vote to get rid of them?
Thats a lot of assumption.
Cable is a left winger (a former Labour candidate) and a number of soft Brexiteers/Remainers who are relatively moderate voted for Corbyn rather than a social conservative like Farron, they could switch to a Cable led LDs. A 2% swing from Labour to LDs would see the Tories pick up 12 Labour seats, lose 2 to the LDs and the LDs regain Sheffield Hallam from Labour.
It is quite possible as I said in 2019 Boris will take over shortly after Brexit is completed and call an election and Tories would have the chance to vote to give him a small overall majority free of the shackles of the DUP!
I think the polling doesnt favour Boris. His lack of sincerity wont play well vs Corbyn.
That assumes the Tories stay at 42%. BIG assumption.
One new factor introduced by Vince Cable is a reasonably persuasive voice attacking the Corbyn McDonnell economic programme. Combine that with the Tories actually campaigning on the economy and more media scrutiny and I believe that Labour will be on the defensive and unable to defend effectively. One of Farron's errors was no serious attacking of McDonell's credibility.
Indeed - but it also opens the way for Labour to remind voters how the LibDems acted in support of the Tory austerity policies during the Coalition years.
Why do you think a Cable (Part of the coalition govt) will take votes of Corbyns Labour? Hes already defended tuition fees.
Hell, he is just as likely to win Lib dem seats im Richmond etc against Tories. And you think all Tory voters from last month will be ok with the DUP pact or wont be willing to switch to a more leaderlike Corbyn? Or that places like Putney or Amber Rudds seat wont have more non-3rd party voters vote to get rid of them?
Thats a lot of assumption.
Cable is a left winger (a former Labour candidate) and a number of soft Brexiteers/Remainers who are relatively moderate voted for Corbyn rather than a social conservative like Farron, they could switch to a Cable led LDs. A 2% swing from Labour to LDs would see the Tories pick up 12 Labour seats, lose 2 to the LDs and the LDs regain Sheffield Hallam from Labour.
It is quite possible as I said in 2019 Boris will take over shortly after Brexit is completed and call an election and Tories would have the chance to vote to give him a small overall majority free of the shackles of the DUP!
I think the polling doesnt favour Boris. His lack of sincerity wont play well vs Corbyn.
That assumes the Tories stay at 42%. BIG assumption.
Boris has charisma, May did not. Boris also still tops every poll amongst all voters of who they want as next Tory leader, the left and hardcore Remainers hate him now but they would not vote Tory anyway while his support for a public sector pay rise shows he still can smell what the swing voters are saying. Could we see Berlusconi making a comeback in Italy next year and Borisconi in the UK in 2019?
One new factor introduced by Vince Cable is a reasonably persuasive voice attacking the Corbyn McDonnell economic programme. Combine that with the Tories actually campaigning on the economy and more media scrutiny and I believe that Labour will be on the defensive and unable to defend effectively. One of Farron's errors was no serious attacking of McDonell's credibility.
Indeed - but it also opens the way for Labour to remind voters how the LibDems acted in support of the Tory austerity policies during the Coalition years.
It does, but one of the critical factors in the next election (assuming the current Labour leadership stay in position) is going to be the credibility of Labour's economic policy. THey will now be viewed as likely or possible winners. Scared voters could go in many directions but the net result will be less support for Labour. I actually think the LDs will revive, probably taking more votes frm Labour than from the Tories.
Why do you think a Cable (Part of the coalition govt) will take votes of Corbyns Labour? Hes already defended tuition fees.
Hell, he is just as likely to win Lib dem seats im Richmond etc against Tories. And you think all Tory voters from last month will be ok with the DUP pact or wont be willing to switch to a more leaderlike Corbyn? Or that places like Putney or Amber Rudds seat wont have more non-3rd party voters vote to get rid of them?
Thats a lot of assumption.
Cable is a left winger (a former Labour candidate) and a number of soft Brexiteers/Remainers who are relatively moderate voted for Corbyn rather than a social conservative like Farron, they could switch to a Cable led LDs. A 2% swing from Labour to LDs would see the Tories pick up 12 Labour seats, lose 2 to the LDs and the LDs regain Sheffield Hallam from Labour.
It is quite possible as I said in 2019 Boris will take over shortly after Brexit is completed and call an election and Tories would have the chance to vote to give him a small overall majority free of the shackles of the DUP!
I think the polling doesnt favour Boris. His lack of sincerity wont play well vs Corbyn.
That assumes the Tories stay at 42%. BIG assumption.
It is very hard to see a reason for Tories to gain votes, and there are plenty of reasons for them to shed them.
All subject to change of course. Just look how different the political world looks compared to 3 months ago.
One new factor introduced by Vince Cable is a reasonably persuasive voice attacking the Corbyn McDonnell economic programme. Combine that with the Tories actually campaigning on the economy and more media scrutiny and I believe that Labour will be on the defensive and unable to defend effectively. One of Farron's errors was no serious attacking of McDonell's credibility.
Indeed - but it also opens the way for Labour to remind voters how the LibDems acted in support of the Tory austerity policies during the Coalition years.
It does, but one of the critical factors in the next election (assuming the current Labour leadership stay in position) is going to be the credibility of Labour's economic policy. THey will now be viewed as likely or possible winners. Scared voters could go in many directions but the net result will be less support for Labour. I actually think the LDs will revive, probably taking more votes frm Labour than from the Tories.
Why do you think a Cable (Part of the coalition govt) will take votes of Corbyns Labour? Hes already defended tuition fees.
Hell, he is just as likely to win Lib dem seats im Richmond etc against Tories. And you think all Tory voters from last month will be ok with the DUP pact or wont be willing to switch to a more leaderlike Corbyn? Or that places like Putney or Amber Rudds seat wont have more non-3rd party voters vote to get rid of them?
Thats a lot of assumption.
Cable is a left winger (a former Labour candidate) and a number of soft Brexiteers/Remainers who are relatively moderate voted for Corbyn rather than a social conservative like Farron, they could switch to a Cable led LDs. A 2% swing from Labour to LDs would see the Tories pick up 12 Labour seats, lose 2 to the LDs and the LDs regain Sheffield Hallam from Labour.
It is quite possible as I said in 2019 Boris will take over shortly after Brexit is completed and call an election and Tories would have the chance to vote to give him a small overall majority free of the shackles of the DUP!
I think the polling doesnt favour Boris. His lack of sincerity wont play well vs Corbyn.
That assumes the Tories stay at 42%. BIG assumption.
Boris has charisma, May did not. Boris also still tops every poll amongst all voters of who they want as next Tory leader, the left and hardcore Remainers hate him now but they would not vote Tory anyway while his support for a public sector pay rise shows he still can smell what the swing voters are saying. Could we see Berlusconi making a comeback in Italy next year and Borisconi in the UK in 2019?
Assuming Boris gets enough votes from other Tory Mps who hate him.
Borisconi would not be a flattering nickname
He also had his seat majority cut in half, so i dont buy him as an election winner anymore
Why do you think a Cable (Part of the coalition govt) will take votes of Corbyns Labour? Hes already defended tuition fees.
Hell, he is just as likely to win Lib dem seats im Richmond etc against Tories. And you think all Tory voters from last month will be ok with the DUP pact or wont be willing to switch to a more leaderlike Corbyn? Or that places like Putney or Amber Rudds seat wont have more non-3rd party voters vote to get rid of them?
Thats a lot of assumption.
Cable is a left winger (a former Labour candidate) and a number of soft Brexiteers/Remainers who are relatively moderate voted for Corbyn rather than a social conservative like Farron, they could switch to a Cable led LDs. A 2% swing from Labour to LDs would see the Tories pick up 12 Labour seats, lose 2 to the LDs and the LDs regain Sheffield Hallam from Labour.
It is quite possible as I said in 2019 Boris will take over shortly after Brexit is completed and call an election and Tories would have the chance to vote to give him a small overall majority free of the shackles of the DUP!
I think the polling doesnt favour Boris. His lack of sincerity wont play well vs Corbyn.
That assumes the Tories stay at 42%. BIG assumption.
It is very hard to see a reason for Tories to gain votes, and there are plenty of reasons for them to shed them.
All subject to change of course. Just look how different the political world looks compared to 3 months ago.
Difficult though it is to see at present, particularly when enjoying the "Brexit Bulldog" sketch on Dead Ringers, it is still possible that Brexit negotiations will proceed to a successful conclusion, or at least to one perceived to be a success.
Perfectly set up for England; priceless half century from Bairstow, a demanding target on a wearing pitch for SA, and plenty of overs left to ensure a result.
But there was no prevailing Conservative narrative by June 8: by election day this had long since dissipated. A lot of May's poor ratings are the result of Tory voters who will vote Tory next time but cannot forgive her for losing the Tory majority to Jeremy Corbyn who they will never vote for. In any case, May will not be allowed to lead the Tories into another election. Much more worrying for the Tories is that there does not appear to be an electorally attractive successor. Just aging Brexiteers, buffoons and hard faced champions of Austerity. The Tories need to get themselves a young dynamic voter friendly leader. They need to do something shocking like abolish tuition fees. Failing that, they will have to take the view that Corbyn should eventually form a government, for there is no doubt that nothing will aid the Tories more than a Corbyn government which would be so disastrous and let down so many people that it will provide the Tories with that eleusive landslide that May promised and failed to deliver.
Why the assumption corbyn will be a disaster as PM?
Everyone seemed to think he would be a disaster as leader for the last election..
What if he turns out to be a very popular PM and wins a second term?
I actually think he will play it safe in his first term and probably won't do anything too radical... But the second term is the one that will be "pure" socialism" let loose.
On the other hand it depends how eager he is to get on with things... He's not getting any younger so he must decide to go for broke in his first term.
Because his strength is in striking postures and in campaigning against the unfairnesses of the system. He is good at the poetry of campaigning, but I suspect hopeless at the prose of governing. He is economically illiterate, very poor at handling the media, and the realities of government would destroy him. He is conning lot of people in suggesting that he can create a socialist society without raising tax for most people, and pay for it by putting up corporation tax so that the revenue available to him will be about the same as that available to Blair and Brown, without the economic boom. He will be too old for a second term, which I dont think he would achieve anyway. He has raised expectations, made promises he cant fund, shown an astonishing ignorance of economics, his presentational skills are dire -a Corbyn government would bring about a Tory landslide at the ensuing election.
Why do you think a Cable (Part of the coalition govt) will take votes of Corbyns Labour? Hes already defended tuition fees.
Hell, he is just as likely to win Lib dem seats im Richmond etc against Tories. And you think all Tory voters from last month will be ok with the DUP pact or wont be willing to switch to a more leaderlike Corbyn? Or that places like Putney or Amber Rudds seat wont have more non-3rd party voters vote to get rid of them?
Thats a lot of assumption.
Cable is a left winger (a former Labour candidate) and a number of soft Brexiteers/Remainers who are relatively moderate voted for Corbyn rather than a social conservative like Farron, they could switch to a Cable led LDs. A 2% swing from Labour to LDs would see the Tories pick up 12 Labour seats, lose 2 to the LDs and the LDs regain Sheffield Hallam from Labour.
It is quite possible as I said in 2019 Boris will take over shortly after Brexit is completed and call an election and Tories would have the chance to vote to give him a small overall majority free of the shackles of the DUP!
I think the polling doesnt favour Boris. His lack of sincerity wont play well vs Corbyn.
That assumes the Tories stay at 42%. BIG assumption.
Boris has charisma, May did not. Boris also still tops every poll amongst all voters of who they want as next Tory leader, the left and hardcore Remainers hate him now but they would not vote Tory anyway while his support for a public sector pay rise shows he still can smell what the swing voters are saying. Could we see Berlusconi making a comeback in Italy next year and Borisconi in the UK in 2019?
Assuming Boris gets enough votes from other Tory Mps who hate him.
Borisconi would not be a flattering nickname
He also had his seat majority cut in half, so i dont buy him as an election winner anymore
There were larger swings against the Tories in London than in Uxbridge and Boris still held the seat. Enough Tory MPs would probably get him to the final 2 if polls continue to show he is the favoured candidate of the public as a whole. He is the only frontrank Tory with charisma, in my view he can beat Corbyn in 2019 once Brexit is done
I note your discussion about GB vs UK and Survation. Please note the following:
1) Area. When discussion about poll vote share takes place, the area should be specified and if it is not then GB is assumed. This is because the majority of vote share GE polls are done of GB people, not UK.
2) Accuracy. Accuracy is measured against GB results, not UK results. Please see below for the links
3) Survation. Survation did a UK poll for the Daily Mail but it was not its final poll. Its final poll was four days later and was GB only. It is this poll that was measured and was accurate.
Will set about writing the post-race ramble promptly. Interesting end and start to the race, but not fantastic in between.
Had we seen a couple of overtakes at the end, I think it would have transformed our view of a rather dull race. Did you have money on Bottas, Mr.D ? Pretty good weekend for him, and he might just have an outside chance of the championship if Hamilton has any more mechanical issues.
Why do you think a Cable (Part of the coalition govt) will take votes of Corbyns Labour? Hes already defended tuition fees.
Hell
Thats a lot of assumption.
Cable is a left winger
It is quite possible as I said in 2019 Boris will take over shortly after Brexit is completed and call an election and Tories would have the chance to vote to give him a small overall majority free of the shackles of the DUP!
I think the polling doesnt favour Boris. His lack of sincerity wont play well vs Corbyn.
That assumes the Tories stay at 42%. BIG assumption.
It is very hard to see a reason for Tories to gain votes, and there are plenty of reasons for them to shed them.
All subject to change of course. Just look how different the political world looks compared to 3 months ago.
Difficult though it is to see at present, particularly when enjoying the "Brexit Bulldog" sketch on Dead Ringers, it is still possible that Brexit negotiations will proceed to a successful conclusion, or at least to one perceived to be a success.
The negotiations have very little chance of being perceived to be a success. If the 52% who voted for it all wanted the same thing there would have been a chance, but as it is there are several quite different visions of what it should achieve.
I happened to be in a meeting in factory on the south coast last week. A consultant was advising the company on some engineering issues. Business done we had a bit of a chat. He assumed, wrongly but quite reasonably given the demographics of the people present that we would be Brexit supporters. He then went on to give an opinion about how the EU prevented industrial renewal in the North (he was from Yorkshire). Now we could have our own industrial and trade policies there were a lot of new options. He made some very good points in fact.
I still don't think I'd buy it, but it was a form of Brexit that was a lot more appealing than the Danial Hannan Singapore in the Atlantic idea. I hadn't looked at it that way before but I can see how people who tend towards the left might go for it. The trouble is there is simply no way that is what the Tories have in mind, particularly the likes of Hammond and May who have never felt the need to give the consequences of Brexit a moment's thought before the vote.
I think if we get through Brexit without one of the major parties splitting we'll be lucky. Both splitting isn't impossible. The outcome is likely to about as popular as a gerbil in a document archive.
One new factor introduced by Vince Cable is a reasonably persuasive voice attacking the Corbyn McDonnell economic programme. Combine that with the Tories actually campaigning on the economy and more media scrutiny and I believe that Labour will be on the defensive and unable to defend effectively. One of Farron's errors was no serious attacking of McDonell's credibility.
Indeed - but it also opens the way for Labour to remind voters how the LibDems acted in support of the Tory austerity policies during the Coalition years.
It does, but one of the critical factors in the next election (assuming the current Labour leadership stay in position) is going to be the credibility of Labour's economic policy. THey will now be viewed as likely or possible winners. Scared voters could go in many directions but the net result will be less support for Labour. I actually think the LDs will revive, probably taking more votes frm Labour than from the Tories.
The credibility of Labour's economic policy will be less important than how the economy performs under the Tories in the period leading up to it. If we are back in recession after a decade or more of Tory rule, the detail of Labour's policies will probably matter much less than many are inclined to assume.
Why do you think a Cable (Part of the coalition govt) will take votes of Corbyns Labour? Hes already defended tuition fees.
Hell, he is just as likely to win Lib dem seats im Richmond etc against Tories. And you think all Tory voters from last month will be ok with the DUP pact or wont be willing to switch to a more leaderlike Corbyn? Or that places like Putney or Amber Rudds seat wont have more non-3rd party voters vote to get rid of them?
Thats a lot of assumption.
Cable is a left winger (a former Labour candidate) and a number of soft Brexiteers/Remainers who are relatively moderate voted for Corbyn rather than a social conservative like Farron, they could switch to a Cable led LDs. A 2% swing from Labour to LDs would see the Tories pick up 12 Labour seats, lose 2 to the LDs and the LDs regain Sheffield Hallam from Labour.
It is quite possible as I said in 2019 Boris will take over shortly after Brexit is completed and call an election and Tories would have the chance to vote to give him a small overall majority free of the shackles of the DUP!
I think the polling doesnt favour Boris. His lack of sincerity wont play well vs Corbyn.
That assumes the Tories stay at 42%. BIG assumption.
Boris has charisma, May did not. Boris also still tops every poll amongst all voters of who they want as next Tory leader, the left and hardcore Remainers hate him now but they would not vote Tory anyway while his support for a public sector pay rise shows he still can smell what the swing voters are saying. Could we see Berlusconi making a comeback in Italy next year and Borisconi in the UK in 2019?
Assuming Boris gets enough votes from other Tory Mps who hate him.
Borisconi would not be a flattering nickname
He also had his seat majority cut in half, so i dont buy him as an election winner anymore
There were larger swings against the Tories in London than in Uxbridge and Boris still held the seat. Enough Tory MPs would probably get him to the final 2 if polls continue to show he is the favoured candidate of the public as a whole. He is the only frontrank Tory with charisma, in my view he can beat Corbyn in 2019 once Brexit is done
I think Boris is too divisive. Funnily enough I think that the Tories can win a majority against Corbyn, as long as the leader is reassuring and competent. They can also do it on a reduced vote. That would be because the perception of Corbyn as now being a potenial PM and the financial perils involved will sink in. If enough voters think that their jobs and mortgages are at stake then the Corbyn bubble will deflate.
I note your discussion about GB vs UK and Survation. Please note the following:
1) Area. When discussion about poll vote share takes place, the area should be specified and if it is not then GB is assumed. This is because the majority of vote share GE polls are done of GB people, not UK.
2) Accuracy. Accuracy is measured against GB results, not UK results. Please see below for the links
3) Survation. Survation did a UK poll for the Daily Mail but it was not its final poll. Its final poll was four days later and was GB only. It is this poll that was measured and was accurate.
One new factor introduced by Vince Cable is a reasonably persuasive voice attacking the Corbyn McDonnell economic programme. Combine that with the Tories actually campaigning on the economy and more media scrutiny and I believe that Labour will be on the defensive and unable to defend effectively. One of Farron's errors was no serious attacking of McDonell's credibility.
Indeed - but it also opens the way for Labour to remind voters how the LibDems acted in support of the Tory austerity policies during the Coalition years.
It does, but one of the critical factors in the next election (assuming the current Labour leadership stay in position) is going to be the credibility of Labour's economic policy. THey will now be viewed as likely or possible winners. Scared voters could go in many directions but the net result will be less support for Labour. I actually think the LDs will revive, probably taking more votes frm Labour than from the Tories.
The credibility of Labour's economic policy will be less important than how the economy performs under the Tories in the period leading up to it. If we are back in recession after a decade or more of Tory rule, the detail of Labour's policies will probably matter much less than many are inclined to assume.
Why do you think a Cable (Part of the coalition govt) will take votes of Corbyns Labour? Hes already defended tuition fees.
Hell, he is just as likely to win Lib dem seats im Richmond etc against Tories. And you think all Tory voters from last month will be ok with the DUP pact or wont be willing to switch to a more leaderlike Corbyn? Or that places like Putney or Amber Rudds seat wont have more non-3rd party voters vote to get rid of them?
Thats a lot of assumption.
Cable is a left winger (a former Labour candidate) and a number of soft Brexiteers/Remainers who are relatively moderate voted for Corbyn rather than a social conservative like Farron, they could switch to a Cable led LDs. A 2% swing from Labour to LDs would see the Tories pick up 12 Labour seats, lose 2 to the LDs and the LDs regain Sheffield Hallam from Labour.
It is quite possible as I said in 2019 Boris will take over shortly after Brexit is completed and call an election and Tories would have the chance to vote to give him a small overall majority free of the shackles of the DUP!
I think the polling doesnt favour Boris. His lack of sincerity wont play well vs Corbyn.
That assumes the Tories stay at 42%. BIG assumption.
Boris has charisma, May did not. Boris also still tops every poll amongst all making a comeback in Italy next year and Borisconi in the UK in 2019?
Assuming Boris gets enough votes from other Tory Mps who hate him.
Borisconi would not be a flattering nickname
He also had his seat majority cut in half, so i dont buy him as an election winner anymore
There were larger swings against the Tories in London than in Uxbridge and Boris still held the seat. Enough Tory MPs would probably get him to the final 2 if polls continue to show he is the favoured candidate of the public as a whole. He is the only frontrank Tory with charisma, in my view he can beat Corbyn in 2019 once Brexit is done
I think Boris is too divisive. Funnily enough I think that the Tories can win a majority against Corbyn, as long as the leader is reassuring and competent. They can also do it on a reduced vote. That would be because the perception of Corbyn as now being a potenial PM and the financial perils involved will sink in. If enough voters think that their jobs and mortgages are at stake then the Corbyn bubble will deflate.
That was the original argument for May. Leftwingers and hardcore Remainers hate Boris but they are not going to vote Tory, Leavers love him and he still polls well with Tories
One new factor introduced by Vince Cable is a reasonably persuasive voice attacking the Corbyn McDonnell economic programme. Combine that with the Tories actually campaigning on the economy and more media scrutiny and I believe that Labour will be on the defensive and unable to defend effectively. One of Farron's errors was no serious attacking of McDonell's credibility.
Indeed - but it also opens the way for Labour to remind voters how the LibDems acted in support of the Tory austerity policies during the Coalition years.
It does, but one of the critical factors in the next election (assuming the current Labour leadership stay in position) is going to be the credibility of Labour's economic policy. THey will now be viewed as likely or possible winners. Scared voters could go in many directions but the net result will be less support for Labour. I actually think the LDs will revive, probably taking more votes frm Labour than from the Tories.
The credibility of Labour's economic policy will be less important than how the economy performs under the Tories in the period leading up to it. If we are back in recession after a decade or more of Tory rule, the detail of Labour's policies will probably matter much less than many are inclined to assume.
The Tories won in 1992 despite a recession
Only because John Major had outstanding personal ratings at the time (in fact, they were far better than Thatcher's personal ratings had been in 1987, despite the latter being a much more emphatic Tory victory).
Do the Tories have a potential leader on the bench who can punch above the party's weight and drag them to a win even despite the 'fundamentals' being so poor, as Major could in 1992?
One new factor introduced by Vince Cable is a reasonably persuasive voice attacking the Corbyn McDonnell economic programme. Combine that with the Tories actually campaigning on the economy and more media scrutiny and I believe that Labour will be on the defensive and unable to defend effectively. One of Farron's errors was no serious attacking of McDonell's credibility.
Indeed - but it also opens the way for Labour to remind voters how the LibDems acted in support of the Tory austerity policies during the Coalition years.
It does, but one of the critical factors in the next election (assuming the current Labour leadership stay in position) is going to be the credibility of Labour's economic policy. THey will now be viewed as likely or possible winners. Scared voters could go in many directions but the net result will be less support for Labour. I actually think the LDs will revive, probably taking more votes frm Labour than from the Tories.
The credibility of Labour's economic policy will be less important than how the economy performs under the Tories in the period leading up to it. If we are back in recession after a decade or more of Tory rule, the detail of Labour's policies will probably matter much less than many are inclined to assume.
The Tories won in 1992 despite a recession
Only because John Major had outstanding personal ratings at the time (in fact, they were far better than Thatcher's personal ratings had been in 1987, despite the latter being a much more emphatic Tory victory).
Do the Tories have a potential leader on the bench who can punch above the party's weight and drag them to a win even despite the 'fundamentals' being so poor, as Major could in 1992?
Corbyn has had far worse ratings than Kinnock in the past too
There isn’t much point in debating the likely outcome in 2019 or even 2022 - do any of us feel confident that we know what will happen a year from now, let alone 2-5 years? What matters now in political terms is immediate - do the Tories unseat Theresa May or not? If they don't do it by the Conference, they won’t do it before 2019: changing the governing party leadership in the middle of Brexit negotiations with a prolonged and divisive internal election would be seriously damaging to Britain’s interests, and however much we may criticise each other, nobody really wants that.
But if Brexit can be presented as a success, will they overthrow her then either? Would the argument be that the Tories had somehow achieved it despite their PM? Wouldn't that be ridiculous?
But if it can't be presented other than as a failure, then it'll be easy to remove her, but hard to find someone who isn't associated with it, in the same way as the party needed to find a clear alternative when Chamberlain’s efforts ran into the sand. The choice then was obvious, at present rather less so.
Would the elastic Boris contrive to transform himself again into someone who really knew Brexit was a mistake all along?
Difficult. So perhaps they’d need a hardcore defiant Remainer. Ken Clarke? He’ll be 82 in 2022.
One new factor introduced by Vince Cable is a reasonably persuasive voice attacking the Corbyn McDonnell economic programme. Combine that with the Tories actually campaigning on the economy and more media scrutiny and I believe that Labour will be on the defensive and unable to defend effectively. One of Farron's errors was no serious attacking of McDonell's credibility.
Indeed - but it also opens the way for Labour to remind voters how the LibDems acted in support of the Tory austerity policies during the Coalition years.
It does, but one of the critical factors in the next election (assuming the current Labour leadership stay in position) is going to be the credibility of Labour's economic policy. THey will now be viewed as likely or possible winners. Scared voters could go in many directions but the net result will be less support for Labour. I actually think the LDs will revive, probably taking more votes frm Labour than from the Tories.
The credibility of Labour's economic policy will be less important than how the economy performs under the Tories in the period leading up to it. If we are back in recession after a decade or more of Tory rule, the detail of Labour's policies will probably matter much less than many are inclined to assume.
The Tories won in 1992 despite a recession
Only because John Major had outstanding personal ratings at the time (in fact, they were far better than Thatcher's personal ratings had been in 1987, despite the latter being a much more emphatic Tory victory).
Do the Tories have a potential leader on the bench who can punch above the party's weight and drag them to a win even despite the 'fundamentals' being so poor, as Major could in 1992?
Corbyn has had far worse ratings than Kinnock in the past too
So? The point still remains that Kinnock's unpopularity was only one part of the story of why 1992 unfolded as it did; the other part was that the Tories had a genuinely popular leader. Major always rated in positive territory in approval with IPSOS-MORI right up until Black Wednesday, and even in polls in the run-up to the '92 election, despite the voting intention polls being wrong, Major always had thumping leads over Kinnock in "best PM" polling.
So again, do the Tories have anyone who can be as popular as Major in '92?
Mr. B, it's cool. Bottas is about 16 for the title on Betfair. I'm going to have to think about whether to put something on that. I suspect this is a blip, but I might run through recent races and see how much of his superior performance is due to Hamilton misfortune than his own excellence.
Comments
Hell, he is just as likely to win Lib dem seats im Richmond etc against Tories. And you think all Tory voters from last month will be ok with the DUP pact or wont be willing to switch to a more leaderlike Corbyn? Or that places like Putney or Amber Rudds seat wont have more non-3rd party voters vote to get rid of them?
Thats a lot of assumption.
It is quite possible as I said in 2019 Boris will take over shortly after Brexit is completed and call an election and Tories would have the chance to vote to give him a small overall majority free of the shackles of the DUP!
That assumes the Tories stay at 42%. BIG assumption.
All subject to change of course. Just look how different the political world looks compared to 3 months ago.
Borisconi would not be a flattering nickname
He also had his seat majority cut in half, so i dont buy him as an election winner anymore
Will set about writing the post-race ramble promptly. Interesting end and start to the race, but not fantastic in between.
I note your discussion about GB vs UK and Survation. Please note the following:
1) Area. When discussion about poll vote share takes place, the area should be specified and if it is not then GB is assumed. This is because the majority of vote share GE polls are done of GB people, not UK.
2) Accuracy. Accuracy is measured against GB results, not UK results. Please see below for the links
3) Survation. Survation did a UK poll for the Daily Mail but it was not its final poll. Its final poll was four days later and was GB only. It is this poll that was measured and was accurate.
Links
* Survation final poll, 7 June
* BPC 2010
* BPC 2015
* BPC 2017
* Exit poll explainer
* Nick Sparrow on 2015 debacle
Did you have money on Bottas, Mr.D ? Pretty good weekend for him, and he might just have an outside chance of the championship if Hamilton has any more mechanical issues.
A great wit, but deciding whether to use Trident? Not in a million years.
As it happens, yes. I put a tiny sum on him, and tipped him, at 26 each way for the title (1/5 odds top 3).
I happened to be in a meeting in factory on the south coast last week. A consultant was advising the company on some engineering issues. Business done we had a bit of a chat. He assumed, wrongly but quite reasonably given the demographics of the people present that we would be Brexit supporters. He then went on to give an opinion about how the EU prevented industrial renewal in the North (he was from Yorkshire). Now we could have our own industrial and trade policies there were a lot of new options. He made some very good points in fact.
I still don't think I'd buy it, but it was a form of Brexit that was a lot more appealing than the Danial Hannan Singapore in the Atlantic idea. I hadn't looked at it that way before but I can see how people who tend towards the left might go for it. The trouble is there is simply no way that is what the Tories have in mind, particularly the likes of Hammond and May who have never felt the need to give the consequences of Brexit a moment's thought before the vote.
I think if we get through Brexit without one of the major parties splitting we'll be lucky. Both splitting isn't impossible. The outcome is likely to about as popular as a gerbil in a document archive.
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/07/austria-post-race-analysis-2017.html
Do the Tories have a potential leader on the bench who can punch above the party's weight and drag them to a win even despite the 'fundamentals' being so poor, as Major could in 1992?
But if Brexit can be presented as a success, will they overthrow her then either? Would the argument be that the Tories had somehow achieved it despite their PM? Wouldn't that be ridiculous?
But if it can't be presented other than as a failure, then it'll be easy to remove her, but hard to find someone who isn't associated with it, in the same way as the party needed to find a clear alternative when Chamberlain’s efforts ran into the sand. The choice then was obvious, at present rather less so.
Would the elastic Boris contrive to transform himself again into someone who really knew Brexit was a mistake all along?
Difficult. So perhaps they’d need a hardcore defiant Remainer. Ken Clarke? He’ll be 82 in 2022.
So: hello, Prime Minister Anna Soubry?
The intention was rather to salute your prescience.
So again, do the Tories have anyone who can be as popular as Major in '92?
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/07/watch-kensington-mps-bad-turn-sunday-politics/