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We just need to hope that Vince can steady the ship and make an effective mentor for Swinson and the newer MPs. However, given his renowned self importance I am not overly hopeful that he won't enjoy being in charge rather too much to hand on after a year or two.
The one piece of better news is that it is hard to see either of the main parties rising toward 50% of the vote, which means that if they can position themselves better, the LDs stand to pick up support from whichever major party falls out of favour first.
Do they even have 30 realistic target seats at the GE? If major boundary changes go ahead, they will be badly affected, as seat targetting will be much more difficult.
Worth considering how this would go if either major party got a big lead. If the Conservatives decline then it seems natural the Lib Dems would prosper. But what if Labour declines?
The Conservative vote share remains high and they're led by someone unpopular who is unlikely to be there at the next election.
Why is it wrong to overturn the ‘decision’, by a tiny majority, of last year when it was right to overturn the decision of 1975, which was by a much, much larger majority.
He didn't and we're not, it doesn't matter how much you claim otherwise.
Frankly I despair of our politicians, rarely, if ever, has the HOC been weaker.
He speaks with the passion and authenticity of Corbyn, but without the financial insanity or seedy past associates.
Coronating Cable is just treading water, and the party needs more than that.
Conservatives - went into an unnecessary early election, took the electorate for granted, issued an uncosted manifesto offering nothing new, apart from telling old people they were going to share more in austerity. Have a leader in Theresa May that is a stubborn robot, with an increasingly unhappy support team, who want to get on with the job, without Maybot saying 'strong and stable' or any other phrase that says nothing. Perhaps Maybots talents should have remained at the Home Office.
Labour - Jeremy Corbyn has managed with the help of Momentum to get Labour grassroots back up and running, with many young people now interested in politics as a way of helping them achieve a better life and changing the world. Labours manifesto was very expensive and required people to believe that others would pay tax to help the country. The Tories never really challenged Labour, as they were too busy with Maybots 'strong and stable'. As a party there is still a massive divide between Corbyns shadow cabinet/labour membership and most backbench Labour MP's. The question is whether Labour can unite as a party behind policies most MP's are happy to promote.
Lib Dems- The Lib Dems have been quietly rebuilding in parts of the country and doing quite well against the Tories. But they have been doing this without much money and without a leader that was well known throughout the country, The Lib Dems policies were never really discussed at the election, apart from being pro EU. Unfortunately, the media questionned whether Farron as a devout Christian could be a leader of a party, where his religious beliefs were totally opposite to his parties values. The question is whether Sir Vince as leader (if it happens) as a well known senior politician can motivate people around the country to become Lib Dem activists or at least vote Lib Dem where they can win.
UKIP- The Nigel Farage party are a cult without a personality. What is their point in existing at the moment, with the Brexit discussion dominated by everyone else apart from UKIP ? UKIP might have helped achieve Brexit in blaming anything negative on the EU, but following the triggering of Article 50, there is very little interest in what UKIP have got to say. Very few TV politics shows now invite UKIP to take part. They are not interested in UKIP, unless it is Nigel Farage, who no longer seems to want a role with UKIP.
SNP- Having lost many seats at the election to other parties, Nicola Sturgeon is no longer in such a strong position to argue indyref 2. The SNP seem to have lost their position as the 'effective opposition' to the Tories at Westminster. Because Labour now seem a much more powerful force and Corbyn is being taken seriously, the SNP have been sidelined a bit. This does not bode well for future Westminster elections, where SNP support might show a continuing decline, as people move back to Labour or Tories.
My point is that this site contains an element that is capable of persuading itself that black is white which surprises me. I keep reading of increasingly odd scenarios where the tories will roll over. One oddbod suggested it will be when disenchanted MPs defect to UKIP.
Survation:
(Normal Weighting and LTV with undecided and refused removed)
Imagine there was a referendum tomorrow with the question “Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?” How would you vote?
Net Leave: 19 June - 1 July
OA: -2 / -9
18-34: -37 / -19
35-54: -12 / -14
55+ : +33 / +4
Thinking about it, it's really quite interesting how my generation has swung towards Corbyn to the extent they have. Two years ago, while more young voters tended to vote Labour, Labour did not have a monopoly on young voters to the extent they do now. On top of that prior to this GE, you had studies like this: https://www.sheffield.ac.uk/faculty/social-sciences/news/young-britons-more-right-wing-previous-generations-1.678149 which basically concluded that young voters were fiscally conservative but socially liberal. So basically what we've seen at the last GE is many young voters vote for someone who is nowhere near fiscally conservative, and not that liberal either. Which rather says how badly the Tories have messed up in regard to younger voters more than anything else. In America, they have also found that Generation Z is fiscally conservative/socially liberal. However quite a few appear to be concluding that this means they will be Republicans, such as this recent article: http://nypost.com/2017/07/01/why-the-next-generation-after-millennials-will-vote-republican/
A conclusion I'm not sure about given that moderate Republicans don't really have a place in the GOP anymore. They've gone very hardline Conservative on social issues in recent years, and there appears to be an assumption that those views won't turn off Generation Zers. Also, not sure about them implying that having a good relationship with parents, a sceptical view of celebrity and fame, and not wanting to get yourself into tonnes of credit card means you're a Conservative. Gen Z sounds very libertarian minded more than anything else. A shame libertarian in the states had only Gary Johnson to vote for in 2016, with his Aleppo comments and all. I did find Bauer's comments on the Dems losing younger voters in swing states more interesting though - though I'm not sure about his conclusion that it's down to Gen Z voters. IIRC in an Atlantic article, I read a few months ago, the Dems losing points with younger voters in swing states was down to young millennial WWC voters going for Trump. I'd expect to see this demographic continue to go GOP for Gen Zers, too.
"Coronating Cable is just treading water, and the party needs more than that."
But that is what they will do. It's Brexitosis - their wits have gone. I would probably return to voting LD as the least of all evils (like many LD voters do) with Lamb as leader.
Alas, not to be.
I am interested though, as to why, despite considering his beliefs 'financial insanity' you're quite a fan of Corbyn.
We expect the young to be socially left-wing, and often economically left-wing (especially when so many go to university now). They will change.
In the late 1960s, I went to a demo in Grosvenor Square with many thousands of young committed left-wing activists. How many of those are now Jezzarites? Far fewer than you'd think. Probably more accountants than anarchists now.
Corbyn is a cross between Wolfie Smith and Tom Good, both characters that I like, and recognise in myself.
I suspectb that, apart from, ,to quote 'the wailing of a few’ there wouldn’t be too much fuss if said politicians came back in a couple of years time and said; ‘Sorry, Brexit is far too complicated and indeed dangerous. We’re not doing it.'
In regard to being socially left-wing - society on issues like abortion and LGBT rights has been trending in a more socially liberal direction since the 1990s, so I don't think young voters will suddenly become very socially conservative on these issues when they get older. The very recent Social Attitudes Survey backs up this trend.
Survation's final poll before the EU referendum had remain 3 per cent ahead - Leave won by 4. It may have got the general election right but that may not hold.
What was striking about the poll was also the huge differences by sex. Leave had a solid lead with men but remain had a large lead with women. I wonder what the causes of that are - of course women's share of the population increases in the older generations
If we believe this poll why are women shifting to remain - but men still backing leave?
And of course we have a Tory government and the voters overwhelmingly back leave. So why would the government change course and upset it's voters.
In the end it's academic - we had a referendum. Perhaps the question is better framed as we voted to leave should we hold a second referendum to reverse that.
"Corbyn is a cross between Wolfie Smith and Tom Good, both characters that I like, and recognise in myself"
I think you're right. Totally unsuitable for PM, but I'll concede well-meaning.
Meanwhile, in free speech news:
https://twitter.com/SergeantFrisky/status/881210406584365058
The risk of the far right comes from the suppression of understandable and genuine concerns being crushed by brute authority wielded by the ideologically politically correct. If there is no other avenue for such real concerns to be expressed, because mainstream politics (as per Rotherham) refuses to acknowledge or address them, then they'll go for more extreme routes.
We see this in the Netherlands, where many think Wilders goes too far, but they prefer, as it were, strong medicine to none at all.
You seriously believe that if politicians say they can't be bothered to follow the will of the majority there "Wouldn't be too much fuss"?
I find myself shaking my head at this site most days. That said election predictions/outcomes show just how out of touch most on here are.
None of this ends well, it probably ends up in an economic crash landing/ bankruptcy /rejoining the EU on deeply unfavourable terms. That is where we seem to be headed.
As per my comments yesterday, but from my own perspective such a crash is actually in my economic self interest as whilst my living standards would probably fall (no more foreign holidays etc) it makes it more likely that I can afford to buy a house in a nice area. I rather suspect that this is the case for a large majority of people under 45, and almost every month that goes by more young people register to vote, and older people die. Peoples experience of economic growth over the last 20 years is simply that it enriches one part of society at the expense of the other, so in the end it doesn't really matter.
Good luck with that suspicion.
One person asked me why I voted to Leave, given that it brings so much uncertainty and turmoil. I explained that the EU goes beyond trade and it would be like Japan joining a 28 nation alliance in Asia, which has political power and is based in Seoul and despite being one of the major nations, you never really get your way despite paying $17bn per year in membership fees. He then understood, I think the knowledge of the EU outside of Europe is very limited, most people think it is like NAFTA or ASEAN, or a more integrated WTO for Europe. I just don't think they realise just how much power that nations hand over. I asked this guy whether he would ever vote for Japan to join anything like that in the future and he flatly declined in a "are you crazy" kind of way.
I agree that the "funded" economic platform has some heroic assumptions (I've rarely seen a platform that didn't, from any party). Controversially, perhaps, I think you should feel reassured by McDonnell on that. Jeremy is a pure idealist and will struggle to bring himself to push for the unpleasant decisions affecting ordinary people that every government has to take. McDonnell really is not - he is less nice but tough, intelligent and very keen to make a left-wing government work - he vetoed a number of generous ideas before the election and will no doubt do so again. The team is basically heart and head and the strongest since Blair-Brown, without the personal vendetta to undermine it.
Here's what to do: put the RAIB or AAIB in charge of the investigation. They're about the only people I'd trust to produce a comprehensive, good and non-political report on the technicalities of what happened that we can move on from.
Any organisation involved with the building industry or standards is already too deeply within the mire.
There are other strands too that go in the opposite direction. In particular youngsters are much more materialistic in ambitions, though one should bear in mind that materialism does not mean Toryism. Socialism is a very materialistic philosophy that believes that the problem is the way materialist goods are distributed is the issue, rather than whether they matter.
Ms Apocalypse does have many Tory sympathetic ideas, I suspect she will soon be welcome at the PB Tory baby roast.
The tory challenge is to explain this to the electorate, I'm not sure they can.
I suspect you will be soon welcome at the Corbynista get-together.
Brexit is neither dangerous or too complicated to achieve if done competently.
If it doesn't happen there will be such discontent with the system which will have been proved beynd doubt to not be democratic. Remainers won't mind that of course as being in the EU requires democracy to be curtailed anyway.
And then there is housing. You need to be earning £80k these days to think about buying a house in Dagenham - twenty years ago someone on the equivalent of minimum wage could have bought there. Average house prices are eight times average wages - and the average age of an FTB is late 30s.
The sort of aspirational issues that made people move from young socialism to voting Tory - getting a well paid job and getting a mortgage on a nice house just isn't available to many if not most young people.
Home owners vote Tory - private renters won't. Unless they solve the housing mess (which means letting prices fall through ending the Osborne props) it will finish the Tories in the medium term.
All you are pointing out is the large gap in the centre of British politics. The idea that a team of Corbyn and McDonnell can appeal to pragmatic centrists' head or heart is an amusing notion.
The whole thing has got out of control. Ultimately it is a disaster, like a plane crash, and before you can work out what actions to take in response you need to establish a cause.
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/881286498896760832
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/881288430306689024
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/881293029918867456
I have a deeply ingrained dislike of debt, which is the biggest obstacle. Our children have enough burdens already with unaffordable housing, no pensions, student debt and an increasing dependency ratio. We should not add public debt to that.
If you support or acquiesce with this you are not a democrat.
Basically if you have a 100k hand down from your parents you can buy a nice house on a low rate mortgage and you are basically set.
But this situation doesn't apply to the majority of young people.
Funny idea of democracy...
Please price up the odds on a Referendum being held in the next 5 years or so in order that the punters on here can relieve you of money.
Parties who win with FPTP sadly never change the system, even when they've promised to. See Trudeau in Canada, for example.
To many of us who do not like TMay's Conservative Party, there are still many flaws with the Labour Party right now.
Chuka Ummuna briefy touched its erogenous zone last week exciting 100 MPs despite some brutal whipping
There is a cross party baton to be picked up and a youth movement waiting to be mobilized. I find it very difficult to imagine some ambitious MP/MPs not picking it up during the next two years as the referendum becomes more distant and we get bogged down in some really heavy sludge.
Could it involve the Lib Dems? After soiling themselves from 2010-2015 it's difficult to imagine but under new leadership they are at least likely to get a hearing..
My view on Brexit is the same as Tusk's "There is only hard Brexit or no Brexit".
I think our country needs proper preparation for that hard Brexit in concrete form such as posting WTO tariffs as the UK default, recruiting customs officers in their thousands and seeking planning permission for large customs parks on our borders with Ireland and the continent.
We risk turning hard Brexit into car crash Brexit by arguing the toss over trivialities. We cannot leave the customs union without building customs posts.
I have to say, I can't recall you expressing that view on Brexit pre-GE, but if that's the way you see Brexit, then that's the way you see it.
For the sake of the country I hope we make the best of this situation. But I have my doubts.
There is only hard Brexit or no Brexit. The important objectives of the negotiations with the EU27 are to get a move on and settle the divorce terms, and then agree sensible future trading arrangements outwith the Single Market and Customs Union.
The adjective is redundant .
After a period of hard Brexit I think that the mood in the UK would swing in the direction of EEA membership, but the route there is from outside the EU not directly.
I think Brexit is a wilful act of self harm comparable to Suez, but the risk to our democracy of not going through with it is even graver.
– Holyrood uses STV.
If it is, even two years of determined preparation as you suggest aren't going to do a great deal to mitigate the economic damage. And just as significantly, it's an outcome the probably has at best the support of 30% of the electorate.
UK politics is an unmitigated mess at the moment.
I think you'd need to explain how Corbyn's Labour would address the trade deficit.
The only thing that matters for us in the Article 50 talks is maintaining continuity. AKA transition arrangements. We need a plausible final destination for those continuity arrangements. ie the closer the final destination is to what we have already the more continuity we get. Not Leaving at all gives the greatest continuity. Just saying. We also need to bite the bullet on citizen rights, payments and Ireland to get to square one on the continuity arrangements part of the talks.
There is as yet no obvious means that majority might be demonstrated in a national vote, but it's becoming increasingly clear that most of the country doesn't want that hard Brexit, however inevitable you might think it.
What is absolutely undeniable is that the referendum was not fought on those terms.
I think that the LD's had the soundest economic policy in the GE, though was impressed by John McDonnell, who I find rather witty and charming albeit in a different style to Corbyns.
Off out to church shortly.
Although the idea of Boris being dragged through Traitors Gate had a certain appeal.
I'd agree that that's pragmatic rather than idealistic in this case, but it needs to be in this critical situation.
(though not to everyone)
http://g8fip1kplyr33r3krz5b97d1.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/GettyImages-693064906-1-1160x773.jpg
I am happy for us to change our mind on Brexit, which at the very best has no practical benefits for us, doesn't solve a single real problem and will be a massive distraction from dealing with those problems. But we are nowhere near having a collective change of heart. We're pretty much all in denial.
Miss Acopolypse is a bit of an outlier, morphing from Corbynite to baby eater in the space of a year. I find it a bit strange to be honest.
It was Brown who ended boom and bust, the other bloke who left a note saying all the money had gone. The next election will be all about the economy, the tories will guarantee that, as usual Labour will fall short.