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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If you’ve been betting on Farage as next UKIP leader then look

SystemSystem Posts: 12,260
edited July 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If you’ve been betting on Farage as next UKIP leader then look away now

Looks like Farage has decided against becoming leader of the amateur shambles that is UKIP. https://t.co/pZrWoVZk3t pic.twitter.com/ViHtPxxIp3

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    edited July 2017
    Looks like Farage has decided against becoming leader...This month...
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Rats don't rejoin sinking ships.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,963
    Damn, I got £50 on him at 13/8 right after Nuttall resigned.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Be confidant to POTUS

    Or lead a sinking political party.

    Hmmm. Choices.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I also note that Brexit is continuing to fail to convince. I hope that Leavers have a plan for reviving the popularity of their obsession.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    edited July 2017
    Does the narcissist say what he does plan to do?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,853
    60% want to keep EU citizenship.

    https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/01/poll-european-eu-rights-brexit
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,924
    AlastairMeeks said:

    I also note that Brexit is continuing to fail to convince. I hope that Leavers have a plan for reviving the popularity of their obsession.

    And Remoaners are failing to convince.

    Not that it matters either way.

    The only thing that people are convinced of is their right to more stuff to be paid for by someone else.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    williamglenn said:

    60% want to keep EU citizenship.

    https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/01/poll-european-eu-rights-brexit

    Not surprised. The Daily Mail will love that!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    I admire his modesty and circumspection. He'd fit right in on here.

    My own decision to stand down as party leader last year was bound to leave a big hole. When you are such a dominant figure, it is always going to be tough for anyone to follow.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    Charles said:

    I admire his modesty and circumspection. He'd fit right in on here.

    My own decision to stand down as party leader last year was bound to leave a big hole. When you are such a dominant figure, it is always going to be tough for anyone to follow.

    Was that piece ghostwritten by seanT?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345
    Charles said:

    I admire his modesty and circumspection. He'd fit right in on here.

    My own decision to stand down as party leader last year was bound to leave a big hole. When you are such a dominant figure, it is always going to be tough for anyone to follow.

    I don't like to brag, it is one of my many many many many fine qualities.
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    Benpointer said:

    williamglenn said:

    60% want to keep EU citizenship.

    https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/01/poll-european-eu-rights-brexit

    Not surprised. The Daily Mail will love that!
    People willing to pay £400 to keep their EU citizenship.
    I think I've spent that already on the documentation for my irish citizenship application.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    another_richard said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I also note that Brexit is continuing to fail to convince. I hope that Leavers have a plan for reviving the popularity of their obsession.

    And Remoaners are failing to convince.

    Not that it matters either way.

    The only thing that people are convinced of is their right to more stuff to be paid for by someone else.
    There won't be a rethink at 54:46.

    I wonder what the Remain lead would need to be before the political weather would change.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,439
    Surprised that Farage has decided to pull the plug on UKIP.

    Wonder what he's up to?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    edited July 2017
    GIN1138 said:

    Surprised that Farage has decided to pull the plug on UKIP.

    Wonder what he's up to?

    Well fox news have lost a tv anchor or two recently...And they pay very very well.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345
    AlastairMeeks said:

    another_richard said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I also note that Brexit is continuing to fail to convince. I hope that Leavers have a plan for reviving the popularity of their obsession.

    And Remoaners are failing to convince.

    Not that it matters either way.

    The only thing that people are convinced of is their right to more stuff to be paid for by someone else.
    There won't be a rethink at 54:46.

    I wonder what the Remain lead would need to be before the political weather would change.
    It won't be opinion polls, it'll be economics that changes the weather, this might help as well

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/881256835570966529
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Charles said:

    I admire his modesty and circumspection. He'd fit right in on here.

    My own decision to stand down as party leader last year was bound to leave a big hole. When you are such a dominant figure, it is always going to be tough for anyone to follow.

    I don't like to brag, it is one of my many many many many fine qualities.
    Your humility does you credit - only The Donald is humbler
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/881265098593116162
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    edited July 2017
    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/joncstone/status/881265098593116162

    Makes conference sound like it could be better punch-up than Pacman one in a few hours.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/881265098593116162

    "...just a week after Labour overturned Theresa May’s majority..." ??
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    another_richard said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I also note that Brexit is continuing to fail to convince. I hope that Leavers have a plan for reviving the popularity of their obsession.

    And Remoaners are failing to convince.

    Not that it matters either way.

    The only thing that people are convinced of is their right to more stuff to be paid for by someone else.
    There won't be a rethink at 54:46.

    I wonder what the Remain lead would need to be before the political weather would change.
    It won't be opinion polls, it'll be economics that changes the weather, this might help as well

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/881256835570966529
    It's the ineptness of the tactics that is so depressing. Don't pre-announce stunts.
  • DeClareDeClare Posts: 483
    AlastairMeeks said:

    I also note that Brexit is continuing to fail to convince. I hope that Leavers have a plan for reviving the popularity of their obsession.

    Leavers don't have to do anything, we won, we've collected the trophy and are still celebrating.

    Some remaindermen are still on the field refusing to accept the result and asking for a replay, but they are talking amongst themselves, nobody else is listening.

    THE GAME IS OVER!
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    AlastairMeeks said:

    another_richard said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I also note that Brexit is continuing to fail to convince. I hope that Leavers have a plan for reviving the popularity of their obsession.

    And Remoaners are failing to convince.

    Not that it matters either way.

    The only thing that people are convinced of is their right to more stuff to be paid for by someone else.
    There won't be a rethink at 54:46.

    I wonder what the Remain lead would need to be before the political weather would change.
    You just need to be patient and wait for Brexit to become the status quo, its not happened yet. It is still the insurgency, and there are still saboteurs plotting against it.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/881265098593116162

    If their Machiavellian masterstroke is to recruit more members, they don't strike me as fearsome tacticians.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    another_richard said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I also note that Brexit is continuing to fail to convince. I hope that Leavers have a plan for reviving the popularity of their obsession.

    And Remoaners are failing to convince.

    Not that it matters either way.

    The only thing that people are convinced of is their right to more stuff to be paid for by someone else.
    There won't be a rethink at 54:46.

    I wonder what the Remain lead would need to be before the political weather would change.
    It won't be opinion polls, it'll be economics that changes the weather, this might help as well

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/881256835570966529
    It's the ineptness of the tactics that is so depressing. Don't pre-announce stunts.
    FPT:

    Looking at the part of the Telegraph article I can see without paying it says:
    "A senior Downing Street figure briefed industry and City bosses... ...the briefing took place at a point after the general election was held last month and the figure has since left in the recent overhaul of Downing Street."

    So that's Nick Timothy presumably? Suspect it should just be filed under 'fake news' given the current Westminster situation.

    I can't believe even someone with Theresa May's emotional intelligence deficit would think that having a hissy fit would be very sensible in the current situation.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345
    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    another_richard said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I also note that Brexit is continuing to fail to convince. I hope that Leavers have a plan for reviving the popularity of their obsession.

    And Remoaners are failing to convince.

    Not that it matters either way.

    The only thing that people are convinced of is their right to more stuff to be paid for by someone else.
    There won't be a rethink at 54:46.

    I wonder what the Remain lead would need to be before the political weather would change.
    It won't be opinion polls, it'll be economics that changes the weather, this might help as well

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/881256835570966529
    It's the ineptness of the tactics that is so depressing. Don't pre-announce stunts.
    I would have thought they'd learned from the election that pre-announcing things like you were targeting Tom Watson, Denis Skinner, Richard Burgon et al was counter productive.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,381
    isam for UKIP Leader!
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,924
    AlastairMeeks said:

    another_richard said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I also note that Brexit is continuing to fail to convince. I hope that Leavers have a plan for reviving the popularity of their obsession.

    And Remoaners are failing to convince.

    Not that it matters either way.

    The only thing that people are convinced of is their right to more stuff to be paid for by someone else.
    There won't be a rethink at 54:46.

    I wonder what the Remain lead would need to be before the political weather would change.
    In or Out barely matters.

    Britain has chosen the magic money tree.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345
    Benpointer said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    another_richard said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I also note that Brexit is continuing to fail to convince. I hope that Leavers have a plan for reviving the popularity of their obsession.

    And Remoaners are failing to convince.

    Not that it matters either way.

    The only thing that people are convinced of is their right to more stuff to be paid for by someone else.
    There won't be a rethink at 54:46.

    I wonder what the Remain lead would need to be before the political weather would change.
    It won't be opinion polls, it'll be economics that changes the weather, this might help as well

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/881256835570966529
    It's the ineptness of the tactics that is so depressing. Don't pre-announce stunts.
    FPT:

    Looking at the part of the Telegraph article I can see without paying it says:
    "A senior Downing Street figure briefed industry and City bosses... ...the briefing took place at a point after the general election was held last month and the figure has since left in the recent overhaul of Downing Street."

    So that's Nick Timothy presumably? Suspect it should just be filed under 'fake news' given the current Westminster situation.

    I can't believe even someone with Theresa May's emotional intelligence deficit would think that having a hissy fit would be very sensible in the current situation.
    There's a lot of people who have left No 10 since election day, so it might not be Rasputin
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    DeClare said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I also note that Brexit is continuing to fail to convince. I hope that Leavers have a plan for reviving the popularity of their obsession.

    Leavers don't have to do anything, we won, we've collected the trophy and are still celebrating.

    Some remaindermen are still on the field refusing to accept the result and asking for a replay, but they are talking amongst themselves, nobody else is listening.

    THE GAME IS OVER!
    If you think the game is over presumably you don't care what happens next :smile:
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,405
    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    another_richard said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I also note that Brexit is continuing to fail to convince. I hope that Leavers have a plan for reviving the popularity of their obsession.

    And Remoaners are failing to convince.

    Not that it matters either way.

    The only thing that people are convinced of is their right to more stuff to be paid for by someone else.
    There won't be a rethink at 54:46.

    I wonder what the Remain lead would need to be before the political weather would change.
    It won't be opinion polls, it'll be economics that changes the weather, this might help as well

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/881256835570966529
    It's the ineptness of the tactics that is so depressing. Don't pre-announce stunts.
    Pretend no deal is better than people realising just how bad the real deal is - seems to be the idea.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    FPT:
    Mortimer said:

    nielh said:

    I've started questioning what the point of the last twenty years of economic growth were. I live in a pretty average town in the south east.

    From my own perspective as a public sector worker, housing and living costs would have been less in 1997. I would have earned about 26k per year, and a 3 bed semi would in a nice part of town would cost £70k. Interest rates were about 6%. So even with a retail mortgage at 9% interest on a 75% LTV mortgage, the total monthly repayments would be about £420. I would need to save up a deposit of £17500. I would be taking home £1600 per month, no student loan etc to pay. Do-able.

    Now I earn £41k reflecting inflation over the last 20 years. But the same house would cost £300k. If I was to take out a mortgage qt 3% interest, the monthly repayments would be £1050. I would need to save a deposit of £75000. Where am I going to find that from? My monthly take home pay is £2400 (less student loan deductions that will go on forever)

    So in 1997 housing cost as a proportion of income would be 26%. In 2017 it is 43% (if I could ever save up for the deposit)

    But then you also have to think about two areas of enormous volatility and risk:
    1) my job is nowhere near as stable as it would have been in 1997. In the public sector as in the private sector there is no job security to the extent that there used to be. In the current environment you have to factor in some kind of default position where your income drops enormously.
    2) If I borrow £225k on a low rate mortgage there is a high probability that the interest rates will rise in the future, so that is an enormous risk, as is the risk that house prices will fall.

    It seems to me that, from my own point of view I would be better off going back in 1997, as that way I would be able to at least move to a nice house with decent schools etc nearby, which I cannot afford to do now.

    So it follows that killing the economy, and taxing property wealth etc, is actually in my own economic self interest. Maybe I should be voting for Corbyn after all.


    Meanwhile rentiers have done incredibly well.

    The BTLers must be stopped now. They're doing irreparable damage to our social settlement.

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,439
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    isam for UKIP Leader!

    :D
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    DeClare said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I also note that Brexit is continuing to fail to convince. I hope that Leavers have a plan for reviving the popularity of their obsession.

    Leavers don't have to do anything, we won, we've collected the trophy and are still celebrating.

    Some remaindermen are still on the field refusing to accept the result and asking for a replay, but they are talking amongst themselves, nobody else is listening.

    THE GAME IS OVER!
    I fear your confidence is misplaced. The British people rejected imperial unity in 1906 because of the impact of tariff reform on their wallets. If they turn against Brexit it wouldn't be unprecedented.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345
    Looks like the awful Islamophobe Anne Marie Waters is looking to be UKIP leader, even Kippers think she's batshit crazy.
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/881265098593116162

    Total non story. I think it alludes to the right wing of the party organising at CLP level to get moderate candidates elected to the NEC, which is what they do all the time anyway.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    another_richard said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    another_richard said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I also note that Brexit is continuing to fail to convince. I hope that Leavers have a plan for reviving the popularity of their obsession.

    And Remoaners are failing to convince.

    Not that it matters either way.

    The only thing that people are convinced of is their right to more stuff to be paid for by someone else.
    There won't be a rethink at 54:46.

    I wonder what the Remain lead would need to be before the political weather would change.
    In or Out barely matters.

    Britain has chosen the magic money tree.
    That choice was confirmed on the night of the referendum, when those nominally pledged to sound money decided that they preferred to spend magic money instead. Since then, the Argentinification of Britain has looked inevitable.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,381
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Looks like the awful Islamophobe Anne Marie Waters is looking to be UKIP leader, even Kippers think she's batshit crazy.

    Infidelophobe! :lol:
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,963
    AlastairMeeks said:

    I also note that Brexit is continuing to fail to convince. I hope that Leavers have a plan for reviving the popularity of their obsession.

    a) One poll
    b) Brexit convinced when it mattered
    c) Verhofstadt will no doubt provide ammo as negotiations get going
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Benpointer said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    another_richard said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I also note that Brexit is continuing to fail to convince. I hope that Leavers have a plan for reviving the popularity of their obsession.

    And Remoaners are failing to convince.

    Not that it matters either way.

    The only thing that people are convinced of is their right to more stuff to be paid for by someone else.
    There won't be a rethink at 54:46.

    I wonder what the Remain lead would need to be before the political weather would change.
    It won't be opinion polls, it'll be economics that changes the weather, this might help as well

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/881256835570966529
    It's the ineptness of the tactics that is so depressing. Don't pre-announce stunts.
    FPT:

    Looking at the part of the Telegraph article I can see without paying it says:
    "A senior Downing Street figure briefed industry and City bosses... ...the briefing took place at a point after the general election was held last month and the figure has since left in the recent overhaul of Downing Street."

    So that's Nick Timothy presumably? Suspect it should just be filed under 'fake news' given the current Westminster situation.

    I can't believe even someone with Theresa May's emotional intelligence deficit would think that having a hissy fit would be very sensible in the current situation.
    There's a lot of people who have left No 10 since election day, so it might not be Rasputin
    Fair point but in any event are they likely to be able to reflect today's plans? I could well imagine this was on the agenda pre-election when May was expecting a stonking majority, but surely her 'difficult woman' act is going to be kept under control by the cabinet now given the GE debacle?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345
    Benpointer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Benpointer said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    another_richard said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I also note that Brexit is continuing to fail to convince. I hope that Leavers have a plan for reviving the popularity of their obsession.

    And Remoaners are failing to convince.

    Not that it matters either way.

    The only thing that people are convinced of is their right to more stuff to be paid for by someone else.
    There won't be a rethink at 54:46.

    I wonder what the Remain lead would need to be before the political weather would change.
    It won't be opinion polls, it'll be economics that changes the weather, this might help as well

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/881256835570966529
    It's the ineptness of the tactics that is so depressing. Don't pre-announce stunts.
    FPT:

    Looking at the part of the Telegraph article I can see without paying it says:
    "A senior Downing Street figure briefed industry and City bosses... ...the briefing took place at a point after the general election was held last month and the figure has since left in the recent overhaul of Downing Street."

    So that's Nick Timothy presumably? Suspect it should just be filed under 'fake news' given the current Westminster situation.

    I can't believe even someone with Theresa May's emotional intelligence deficit would think that having a hissy fit would be very sensible in the current situation.
    There's a lot of people who have left No 10 since election day, so it might not be Rasputin
    Fair point but in any event are they likely to be able to reflect today's plans? I could well imagine this was on the agenda pre-election when May was expecting a stonking majority, but surely her 'difficult woman' act is going to be kept under control by the cabinet now given the GE debacle?
    To be fair to Nick Timothy he's kept his gob shut since he left Downing Street, bar his score settling with Sir Lynton Crosby.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    edited July 2017
    Mortimer said:

    FPT:

    Mortimer said:

    nielh said:

    I've started questioning what the point of the last twenty years of economic growth were. I live in a pretty average town in the south east.

    From my own perspective as a public sector worker, housing and living costs would have been less in 1997. I would have earned about 26k per year, and a 3 bed semi would in a nice part of town would cost £70k. Interest rates were about 6%. So even with a retail mortgage at 9% interest on a 75% LTV mortgage, the total monthly repayments would be about £420. I would need to save up a deposit of £17500. I would be taking home £1600 per month, no student loan etc to pay. Do-able.

    Now I earn £41k reflecting inflation over the last 20 years. But the same house would cost £300k. If I was to take out a mortgage qt 3% interest, the monthly repayments would be £1050. I would need to save a deposit of £75000. Where am I going to find that from? My monthly take home pay is £2400 (less student loan deductions that will go on forever)

    So in 1997 housing cost as a proportion of income would be 26%. In 2017 it is 43% (if I could ever save up for the deposit)

    But then you also have to think about two areas of enormous volatility and risk:
    1) my job is nowhere near as stable as it would have been in 1997. In the public sector as in the private sector there is no job security to the extent that there used to be. In the current environment you have to factor in some kind of default position where your income drops enormously.
    2) If I borrow £225k on a low rate mortgage there is a high probability that the interest rates will rise in the future, so that is an enormous risk, as is the risk that house prices will fall.

    It seems to me that, from my own point of view I would be better off going back in 1997, as that way I would be able to at least move to a nice house with decent schools etc nearby, which I cannot afford to do now.

    So it follows that killing the economy, and taxing property wealth etc, is actually in my own economic self interest. Maybe I should be voting for Corbyn after all.


    Meanwhile rentiers have done incredibly well.

    The BTLers must be stopped now. They're doing irreparable damage to our social settlement.

    Quite right. Too many Tories have forgotten that for capitalism to be popular you need capitalists.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Mortimer said:

    FPT:

    Mortimer said:

    nielh said:

    I've started questioning what the point of the last twenty years of economic growth were. I live in a pretty average town in the south east.

    From my own perspective as a public sector worker, housing and living costs would have been less in 1997. I would have earned about 26k per year, and a 3 bed semi would in a nice part of town would cost £70k. Interest rates were about 6%. So even with a retail mortgage at 9% interest on a 75% LTV mortgage, the total monthly repayments would be about £420. I would need to save up a deposit of £17500. I would be taking home £1600 per month, no student loan etc to pay. Do-able.

    Now I earn £41k reflecting inflation over the last 20 years. But the same house would cost £300k. If I was to take out a mortgage qt 3% interest, the monthly repayments would be £1050. I would need to save a deposit of £75000. Where am I going to find that from? My monthly take home pay is £2400 (less student loan deductions that will go on forever)

    So in 1997 housing cost as a proportion of income would be 26%. In 2017 it is 43% (if I could ever save up for the deposit)

    But then you also have to think about two areas of enormous volatility and risk:
    1) my job is nowhere near as stable as it would have been in 1997. In the public sector as in the private sector there is no job security to the extent that there used to be. In the current environment you have to factor in some kind of default position where your income drops enormously.
    2) If I borrow £225k on a low rate mortgage there is a high probability that the interest rates will rise in the future, so that is an enormous risk, as is the risk that house prices will fall.

    It seems to me that, from my own point of view I would be better off going back in 1997, as that way I would be able to at least move to a nice house with decent schools etc nearby, which I cannot afford to do now.

    So it follows that killing the economy, and taxing property wealth etc, is actually in my own economic self interest. Maybe I should be voting for Corbyn after all.


    Meanwhile rentiers have done incredibly well.

    The BTLers must be stopped now. They're doing irreparable damage to our social settlement.

    The solution to the pressure on housing is to build more housing. Anything else is a sideshow.
  • DeClareDeClare Posts: 483
    Benpointer said:

    DeClare said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I also note that Brexit is continuing to fail to convince. I hope that Leavers have a plan for reviving the popularity of their obsession.

    Leavers don't have to do anything, we won, we've collected the trophy and are still celebrating.

    Some remaindermen are still on the field refusing to accept the result and asking for a replay, but they are talking amongst themselves, nobody else is listening.

    THE GAME IS OVER!
    If you think the game is over presumably you don't care what happens next :smile:
    What's that? project fear again? that worked so well last year didn't it?

    If the EU was worth staying in they would have been concerned that one of their biggest members was so unhappy that they were contemplating leaving.

    They would have been campaigning for us to stay, they would have said 'look we hear you and here's what we're going to do to address your concerns'

    They would have been reminding what the EU has done for us and what it was going to do for us in the future, but nope! the Europeans kept well out of it and left it up to George and Dave wo made the classic mistake of trying to sell a negative.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345
    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/881254998910304256
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    DeClare said:

    Benpointer said:

    DeClare said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I also note that Brexit is continuing to fail to convince. I hope that Leavers have a plan for reviving the popularity of their obsession.

    Leavers don't have to do anything, we won, we've collected the trophy and are still celebrating.

    Some remaindermen are still on the field refusing to accept the result and asking for a replay, but they are talking amongst themselves, nobody else is listening.

    THE GAME IS OVER!
    If you think the game is over presumably you don't care what happens next :smile:
    What's that? project fear again? that worked so well last year didn't it?

    If the EU was worth staying in they would have been concerned that one of their biggest members was so unhappy that they were contemplating leaving.

    They would have been campaigning for us to stay, they would have said 'look we hear you and here's what we're going to do to address your concerns'

    They would have been reminding what the EU has done for us and what it was going to do for us in the future, but nope! the Europeans kept well out of it and left it up to George and Dave wo made the classic mistake of trying to sell a negative.
    I do totally agree with these comments - project fear was a big mistake and the EU should have done more to sell the benefits of memmbership.

    But... my point is that you won the referendum but we are still in the EU today. I am 95% certain we will leave but the shape of that leave can be very different. That is what is at stake now.

    Just one final point re "GAME OVER" - I know its been said before but had the result been 52-48 the other way, very few committed Leavers would have been accepting that it was game over.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/881254998910304256

    Form an orderly queue in front of the magic money tree :smile:
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Looks like the awful Islamophobe Anne Marie Waters is looking to be UKIP leader, even Kippers think she's batshit crazy.

    She must be important. I had never heard of her.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Please tell me that gay donkey rape man is standing again for the UKIP leadership.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120
    DeClare said:

    Benpointer said:

    DeClare said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I also note that Brexit is continuing to fail to convince. I hope that Leavers have a plan for reviving the popularity of their obsession.

    Leavers don't have to do anything, we won, we've collected the trophy and are still celebrating.

    Some remaindermen are still on the field refusing to accept the result and asking for a replay, but they are talking amongst themselves, nobody else is listening.

    THE GAME IS OVER!
    If you think the game is over presumably you don't care what happens next :smile:
    What's that? project fear again? that worked so well last year didn't it?

    If the EU was worth staying in they would have been concerned that one of their biggest members was so unhappy that they were contemplating leaving.

    They would have been campaigning for us to stay, they would have said 'look we hear you and here's what we're going to do to address your concerns'

    They would have been reminding what the EU has done for us and what it was going to do for us in the future, but nope! the Europeans kept well out of it and left it up to George and Dave wo made the classic mistake of trying to sell a negative.
    Project fear mate worked well for May didn't it. There are too many people who have sweet fuck all and will vote for any kind of flannel...whether the 350m to the NHS or Corbyn's corporation tax increase to pay for anything and everything....

    There are a only very small minority of people who give a toss about the EU...and most of those seem to post on pbCOM......there are many more people who want change from what we have now....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345
    edited July 2017
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Please tell me that gay donkey rape man is standing again for the UKIP leadership.

    I'm fairly certain he said a few weeks ago that he would if Farage didn't, but I David Coburn is standing, and I want him to win.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    edited July 2017
    Tour de France started today. I was amazed to hear that in both the UK and Australia Phil Ligett and Paul Sherwin have been relegated to secondary roles.

    These guys are great - they appear on the NBCSN set before the race, commentate and appear on the post race show too, along with Jens Voigt, Christian Van de velde and Bob Roll.

    Couldn't imagine a TDF without them.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    nielh said:

    Benpointer said:

    williamglenn said:

    60% want to keep EU citizenship.

    https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/01/poll-european-eu-rights-brexit

    Not surprised. The Daily Mail will love that!
    People willing to pay £400 to keep their EU citizenship.
    I think I've spent that already on the documentation for my irish citizenship application.
    I will definitely pay £400 pa to keep my red passport.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    surbiton said:

    nielh said:

    Benpointer said:

    williamglenn said:

    60% want to keep EU citizenship.

    https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/01/poll-european-eu-rights-brexit

    Not surprised. The Daily Mail will love that!
    People willing to pay £400 to keep their EU citizenship.
    I think I've spent that already on the documentation for my irish citizenship application.
    I will definitely pay £400 pa to keep my red passport.
    +1
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/881254998910304256

    TM's authority is trashed.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    edited July 2017
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/881254998910304256

    If the Tories need any advice on how to spend the fruits of the newly-discovered magic money tree, here is a document they might find helpful:

    labour.org.uk/page/-/Images/manifesto-2017/Labour%20Manifesto%202017.pdf
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,971
    DeClare said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I also note that Brexit is continuing to fail to convince. I hope that Leavers have a plan for reviving the popularity of their obsession.

    Leavers don't have to do anything, we won, we've collected the trophy and are still celebrating.

    Some remaindermen are still on the field refusing to accept the result and asking for a replay, but they are talking amongst themselves, nobody else is listening.

    THE GAME IS OVER!
    Are you a child ?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Please tell me that gay donkey rape man is standing again for the UKIP leadership.

    Is he from the fruitcake or the closet racist wing of the party?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345
    https://twitter.com/JamesKanag/status/881275228797710336
    https://twitter.com/JamesKanag/status/804643509730942976
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    foxinsoxuk said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Please tell me that gay donkey rape man is standing again for the UKIP leadership.

    Is he from the fruitcake or the closet racist wing of the party?
    There is a place for Venn diagrams.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    AlastairMeeks said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Please tell me that gay donkey rape man is standing again for the UKIP leadership.

    Is he from the fruitcake or the closet racist wing of the party?
    There is a place for Venn diagrams.
    I put a quid on Aker at 66/1. UKIP leader is a hard one to call, but Aker got twice as many votes as any other smoked fish flavoured politician, so I thought worth a punt.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Survation putting the Tories narrowly in the lead is interesting. It suggest SouthamObserver's recent thread about Labour hubris may be on to something.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120
    AndyJS said:

    Survation putting the Tories narrowly in the lead is interesting. It suggest SouthamObserver's recent thread about Labour hubris may be on to something.

    Or...it could mean that opinion polls are a complete and utter waste of time....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345
    tyson said:

    AndyJS said:

    Survation putting the Tories narrowly in the lead is interesting. It suggest SouthamObserver's recent thread about Labour hubris may be on to something.

    Or...it could mean that opinion polls are a complete and utter waste of time....
    Survation are the gold standard though.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345
    https://twitter.com/BDStanley/status/881271485838524416
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,963
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tyson said:

    AndyJS said:

    Survation putting the Tories narrowly in the lead is interesting. It suggest SouthamObserver's recent thread about Labour hubris may be on to something.

    Or...it could mean that opinion polls are a complete and utter waste of time....
    Survation are the gold standard though.
    Like ICM were the 'gold standard' before they predicted a comfortable Tory majority in June...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    edited July 2017
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tyson said:

    AndyJS said:

    Survation putting the Tories narrowly in the lead is interesting. It suggest SouthamObserver's recent thread about Labour hubris may be on to something.

    Or...it could mean that opinion polls are a complete and utter waste of time....
    Survation are the gold standard though.
    I find it very hard not to value opinion polls that support my preferences and dismiss those that don't. I reckon most people fall into the same trap to some extent. Theresa did make one perceptive comment during the campaign, namely that there is only one poll that count; sadly for her, it proved to be an outlier.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    nielh said:

    Benpointer said:

    williamglenn said:

    60% want to keep EU citizenship.

    https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/01/poll-european-eu-rights-brexit

    Not surprised. The Daily Mail will love that!
    People willing to pay £400 to keep their EU citizenship.
    I think I've spent that already on the documentation for my irish citizenship application.
    What on Earth have you been paying for? I spent £70 (?? I cannot remember the exact amount) and £5 for some photos. The form was free and incredibly simple to fill in.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    Beverley_C said:

    nielh said:

    Benpointer said:

    williamglenn said:

    60% want to keep EU citizenship.

    https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/01/poll-european-eu-rights-brexit

    Not surprised. The Daily Mail will love that!
    People willing to pay £400 to keep their EU citizenship.
    I think I've spent that already on the documentation for my irish citizenship application.
    What on Earth have you been paying for? I spent £70 (?? I cannot remember the exact amount) and £5 for some photos. The form was free and incredibly simple to fill in.
    £325 spent on buying some Irish ancestors?

    (If so, it was great value!)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345
    Benpointer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tyson said:

    AndyJS said:

    Survation putting the Tories narrowly in the lead is interesting. It suggest SouthamObserver's recent thread about Labour hubris may be on to something.

    Or...it could mean that opinion polls are a complete and utter waste of time....
    Survation are the gold standard though.
    I find it very hard not to value opinion polls that support my preferences and dismiss those that don't. I reckon most people fall into the same trap to some extent. Theresa did make one perceptive comment during the campaign, namely that there is only one poll that count; sadly for her, it proved to be an outlier.
    Look at the global picture.

    Labour ahead on VI and leadership, Tories ahead on the economy.

    That probably indicates a Labour lead of around 3%
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Mortimer said:

    FPT:

    Mortimer said:

    nielh said:

    I've started questioning what the point of the last twenty years of economic growth were. I live in a pretty average town in the south east.

    From my own perspective as a public sector worker, housing and living costs would have been less in 1997. I would have earned about 26k per year, and a 3 bed semi would in a nice part of town would cost £70k. Interest rates were about 6%. So even with a retail mortgage at 9% interest on a 75% LTV mortgage, the total monthly repayments would be about £420. I would need to save up a deposit of £17500. I would be taking home £1600 per month, no student loan etc to pay. Do-able.

    Now I earn £41k reflecting inflation over the last 20 years. But the same house would cost £300k. If I was to take out a mortgage qt 3% interest, the monthly repayments would be £1050. I would need to save a deposit of £75000. Where am I going to find that from? My monthly take home pay is £2400 (less student loan deductions that will go on forever)

    So in 1997 housing cost as a proportion of income would be 26%. In 2017 it is 43% (if I could ever save up for the deposit)

    But then you also have to think about two areas of enormous volatility and risk:
    1) my job is nowhere near as stable as it would have been in 1997. In the public sector as in the private sector there is no job security to the extent that there used to be. In the current environment you have to factor in some kind of default position where your income drops enormously.
    2) If I borrow £225k on a low rate mortgage there is a high probability that the interest rates will rise in the future, so that is an enormous risk, as is the risk that house prices will fall.

    It seems to me that, from my own point of view I would be better off going back in 1997, as that way I would be able to at least move to a nice house with decent schools etc nearby, which I cannot afford to do now.

    So it follows that killing the economy, and taxing property wealth etc, is actually in my own economic self interest. Maybe I should be voting for Corbyn after all.


    Meanwhile rentiers have done incredibly well.

    The BTLers must be stopped now. They're doing irreparable damage to our social settlement.

    The solution to the pressure on housing is to build more housing. Anything else is a sideshow.
    :+1::+1::+1::+1::+1::+1::+1::+1::+1::+1::+1::+1::+1::+1::+1::+1::+1:

    I have been saying that for years
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Benpointer said:

    Beverley_C said:

    nielh said:

    Benpointer said:

    williamglenn said:

    60% want to keep EU citizenship.

    https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/01/poll-european-eu-rights-brexit

    Not surprised. The Daily Mail will love that!
    People willing to pay £400 to keep their EU citizenship.
    I think I've spent that already on the documentation for my irish citizenship application.
    What on Earth have you been paying for? I spent £70 (?? I cannot remember the exact amount) and £5 for some photos. The form was free and incredibly simple to fill in.
    £325 spent on buying some Irish ancestors?

    (If so, it was great value!)
    I do not need any. I was born there.
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    Beverley_C said:

    nielh said:

    Benpointer said:

    williamglenn said:

    60% want to keep EU citizenship.

    https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/01/poll-european-eu-rights-brexit

    Not surprised. The Daily Mail will love that!
    People willing to pay £400 to keep their EU citizenship.
    I think I've spent that already on the documentation for my irish citizenship application.
    What on Earth have you been paying for? I spent £70 (?? I cannot remember the exact amount) and £5 for some photos. The form was free and incredibly simple to fill in.
    Main cost is in notarisation fees. That and getting copies of certificates. I have 2x Irish grandparents (both dead) but my parents never became Irish citizens, so it becomes more complicated.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    40-41 sounds about right. Probably the same score you'd get if you just polled labour MPs.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    another_richard said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I also note that Brexit is continuing to fail to convince. I hope that Leavers have a plan for reviving the popularity of their obsession.

    And Remoaners are failing to convince.

    Not that it matters either way.

    The only thing that people are convinced of is their right to more stuff to be paid for by someone else.
    There won't be a rethink at 54:46.

    I wonder what the Remain lead would need to be before the political weather would change.
    It won't be opinion polls, it'll be economics that changes the weather, this might help as well

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/881256835570966529
    I think this is the Telegraph stirring up trouble more than anything else. The story doesn't appear to have that much substance aside from one single source (which is contradicted by another source in that story). Not even May is this much of an idiot, and if she is she is going to get told to go and do one by her cabinet who know that if they ever want to avoid a Corbyn government this 'no deal' nonsesnse has to end.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Essexit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tyson said:

    AndyJS said:

    Survation putting the Tories narrowly in the lead is interesting. It suggest SouthamObserver's recent thread about Labour hubris may be on to something.

    Or...it could mean that opinion polls are a complete and utter waste of time....
    Survation are the gold standard though.
    Like ICM were the 'gold standard' before they predicted a comfortable Tory majority in June...
    Survation actually got the result near spot on though. Unlike ICM....
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/881265098593116162

    Where are they going to find these members?
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    nielh said:

    Beverley_C said:

    nielh said:

    Benpointer said:

    williamglenn said:

    60% want to keep EU citizenship.

    https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/01/poll-european-eu-rights-brexit

    Not surprised. The Daily Mail will love that!
    People willing to pay £400 to keep their EU citizenship.
    I think I've spent that already on the documentation for my irish citizenship application.
    What on Earth have you been paying for? I spent £70 (?? I cannot remember the exact amount) and £5 for some photos. The form was free and incredibly simple to fill in.
    Main cost is in notarisation fees. That and getting copies of certificates. I have 2x Irish grandparents (both dead) but my parents never became Irish citizens, so it becomes more complicated.
    That is a more complicated route via the Foreign Births register IIRC. I read all the form and documentation and so I was glad that I could do the simple thing. Both my kids intend to take out Irish citizenship so maybe my grandkids (if I ever have any) will have a simpler time :)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    Beverley_C said:

    Benpointer said:

    Beverley_C said:

    nielh said:

    Benpointer said:

    williamglenn said:

    60% want to keep EU citizenship.

    https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/01/poll-european-eu-rights-brexit

    Not surprised. The Daily Mail will love that!
    People willing to pay £400 to keep their EU citizenship.
    I think I've spent that already on the documentation for my irish citizenship application.
    What on Earth have you been paying for? I spent £70 (?? I cannot remember the exact amount) and £5 for some photos. The form was free and incredibly simple to fill in.
    £325 spent on buying some Irish ancestors?

    (If so, it was great value!)
    I do not need any. I was born there.
    Not you, Nielh :smile:
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275
    The_Apocalypse said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    another_richard said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I also note that Brexit is continuing to fail to convince. I hope that Leavers have a plan for reviving the popularity of their obsession.

    And Remoaners are failing to convince.

    Not that it matters either way.

    The only thing that people are convinced of is their right to more stuff to be paid for by someone else.
    There won't be a rethink at 54:46.

    I wonder what the Remain lead would need to be before the political weather would change.
    It won't be opinion polls, it'll be economics that changes the weather, this might help as well

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/881256835570966529
    I think this is the Telegraph stirring up trouble more than anything else. The story doesn't appear to have that much substance aside from one single source (which is contradicted by another source in that story). Not even May is this much of an idiot, and if she is she is going to get told to go and do one by her cabinet who know that if they ever want to avoid a Corbyn government this 'no deal' nonsesnse has to end.
    'No deal' may be nonsense as an intended policy, but remember that it is the default outcome now that A50 is activated. If there is no deal then there is no deal. And no deal means either crashing out, extending (possibly) or revoking.
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    Beverley_C said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Mortimer said:

    FPT:

    Mortimer said:

    nielh said:

    I've started questioning what the point of the last twenty years of economic growth were. I live in a pretty average town in the south east.

    snip

    So in 1997 housing cost as a proportion of income would be 26%. In 2017 it is 43% (if I could ever save up for the deposit)

    But then you also have to think about two areas of enormous volatility and risk:
    1) my job is nowhere near as stable as it would have been in 1997. In the public sector as in the private sector there is no job security to the extent that there used to be. In the current environment you have to factor in some kind of default position where your income drops enormously.
    2) If I borrow £225k on a low rate mortgage there is a high probability that the interest rates will rise in the future, so that is an enormous risk, as is the risk that house prices will fall.

    It seems to me that, from my own point of view I would be better off going back in 1997, as that way I would be able to at least move to a nice house with decent schools etc nearby, which I cannot afford to do now.

    So it follows that killing the economy, and taxing property wealth etc, is actually in my own economic self interest. Maybe I should be voting for Corbyn after all.


    Meanwhile rentiers have done incredibly well.

    The BTLers must be stopped now. They're doing irreparable damage to our social settlement.

    The solution to the pressure on housing is to build more housing. Anything else is a sideshow.
    :+1::+1::+1::+1::+1::+1::+1::+1::+1::+1::+1::+1::+1::+1::+1::+1::+1:

    I have been saying that for years
    Increasing housing supply is not a silver bullet.
    It is a distraction from a bigger problem of inequality of outcomes.
    People who are just essentially lucky enough to have access to property wealth, vs those who don't.
    It is a situation that has to be overturned, some way or another, preferably through taxation, but alternatively through devaluation of assets. Some sort of rebalancing is inevitable.
    This is a situation that has been entirely created by successive governments over 20 years. It is a uniquely British (English) problem. It just doesn't exist in other countries, at least not to any where near the same extent.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,106
    The report in the Mail on Sunday re Grenfell is scary if true and seems to involve the tenants management committee. I may be wrong but wasn't the new labour MP on that committee in 2012. The tenants management committee are refusing to provide documentation under freedom of information.

  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    Beverley_C said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Mortimer said:

    FPT:

    Mortimer said:

    nielh said:

    I've started questioning what the point of the last twenty years of economic growth were. I live in a pretty average town in the south east.

    From my own perspective as a public sector worker, housing and living costs would have been less in 1997. I would have earned about 26k per year, and a 3 bed semi would in a nice part of town would cost £70k. Interest rates were about 6%. So even with a retail mortgage at 9% interest on a 75% LTV mortgage, the total monthly repayments would be about £420. I would need to save up a deposit of £17500. I would be taking home £1600 per month, no student loan etc to pay. Do-able.

    Now I earn £41k reflecting inflation over the last 20 years. But the same house would cost £300k. If I was to take out a mortgage qt 3% interest, the monthly repayments would be £1050. I would need to save a deposit of £75000. Where am I going to find that from? My monthly take home pay is £2400 (less student loan deductions that will go on forever)

    So in 1997 housing cost as a proportion of income would be 26%. In 2017 it is 43% (if I could ever save up for the deposit)

    But then you also have to think about two areas of enormous volatility and risk:
    1) my job is nowhere near as stable as it would have been in 1997. In the public sector as in the private sector there is no job security to the extent that there used to be. In the current environment you have to factor in some kind of default position where your income drops enormously.
    2) If I borrow £225k on a low rate mortgage there is a high probability that the interest rates will rise in the future, so that is an enormous risk, as is the risk that house prices will fall.

    It seems to me that, from my own point of view I would be better off going back in 1997, as that way I would be able to at least move to a nice house with decent schools etc nearby, which I cannot afford to do now.

    So it follows that killing the economy, and taxing property wealth etc, is actually in my own economic self interest. Maybe I should be voting for Corbyn after all.


    Meanwhile rentiers have done incredibly well.

    The BTLers must be stopped now. They're doing irreparable damage to our social settlement.

    The solution to the pressure on housing is to build more housing. Anything else is a sideshow.
    :+1::+1::+1::+1::+1::+1::+1::+1::+1::+1::+1::+1::+1::+1::+1::+1::+1:

    I have been saying that for years
    The Brexodus should free up some houses, well at least the twenty or thirty houses in East London that several hundred EU workers have been staying in.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    tyson said:

    AndyJS said:

    Survation putting the Tories narrowly in the lead is interesting. It suggest SouthamObserver's recent thread about Labour hubris may be on to something.

    Or...it could mean that opinion polls are a complete and utter waste of time....
    Weren't Survation one of the few pollsters who got the election result right?
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Beverley_C said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Mortimer said:

    FPT:

    Mortimer said:

    nielh said:

    snip


    Meanwhile rentiers have done incredibly well.

    The BTLers must be stopped now. They're doing irreparable damage to our social settlement.

    The solution to the pressure on housing is to build more housing. Anything else is a sideshow.
    :+1::+1::+1::+1::+1::+1::+1::+1::+1::+1::+1::+1::+1::+1::+1::+1::+1:

    I have been saying that for years
    "As James Kanagasooriam of Populus explains, home ownership is part of a complex of life markers that tend to be associated with Tory voting: being married, having a fairly high earning job, owning multiple cars."

    https://capx.co/without-more-houses-tomorrow-belongs-to-labour/
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,853
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Benpointer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tyson said:

    AndyJS said:

    Survation putting the Tories narrowly in the lead is interesting. It suggest SouthamObserver's recent thread about Labour hubris may be on to something.

    Or...it could mean that opinion polls are a complete and utter waste of time....
    Survation are the gold standard though.
    I find it very hard not to value opinion polls that support my preferences and dismiss those that don't. I reckon most people fall into the same trap to some extent. Theresa did make one perceptive comment during the campaign, namely that there is only one poll that count; sadly for her, it proved to be an outlier.
    Look at the global picture.

    Labour ahead on VI and leadership, Tories ahead on the economy.

    That probably indicates a Labour lead of around 3%
    The global picture is that the Tories always lose when the Eurosceptics become too influential. The only way to create a majority against the left is for the Tories to be once again pro-EU. The idea that 'reuniting the right' through Brexit would pay electoral dividends has been proven to be false.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    Just catching up. Now 46-54 for Remain. Scenarios are starting to open up where we reverse the Brexit decision. I can't see any reason why we will be forced to commit hara-kiri because some politicians feel we are obliged to be too inflexible to change course
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    tyson said:

    AndyJS said:

    Survation putting the Tories narrowly in the lead is interesting. It suggest SouthamObserver's recent thread about Labour hubris may be on to something.

    Or...it could mean that opinion polls are a complete and utter waste of time....
    Yawn
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,106
    Roger said:

    Just catching up. Now 46-54 for Remain. Scenarios are starting to open up where we reverse the Brexit decision. I can't see any reason why we will be forced to commit hara-kiri because some politicians feel we are obliged to be too inflexible to change course

    How do you think it could happen Roger
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    Benpointer said:

    surbiton said:

    nielh said:

    Benpointer said:

    williamglenn said:

    60% want to keep EU citizenship.

    https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/01/poll-european-eu-rights-brexit

    Not surprised. The Daily Mail will love that!
    People willing to pay £400 to keep their EU citizenship.
    I think I've spent that already on the documentation for my irish citizenship application.
    I will definitely pay £400 pa to keep my red passport.
    +1
    +1
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Roger said:

    Just catching up. Now 46-54 for Remain. Scenarios are starting to open up where we reverse the Brexit decision. I can't see any reason why we will be forced to commit hara-kiri because some politicians feel we are obliged to be too inflexible to change course

    How do you think it could happen Roger
    Through a referendum, of course.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    Survation details http://survation.com/conservative-party-voting-intention-steadies-public-mood-continues-shift-soft-brexit/

    The fact that Remain is now leading Leave by 9% shows how the narrative has been so pro-EU in the last few months. Quite an amazing turnaround, and does leave the Tories (and Corbyn) dressed in splendid Emperor's New Clothes.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,106
    surbiton said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Roger said:

    Just catching up. Now 46-54 for Remain. Scenarios are starting to open up where we reverse the Brexit decision. I can't see any reason why we will be forced to commit hara-kiri because some politicians feel we are obliged to be too inflexible to change course

    How do you think it could happen Roger
    Through a referendum, of course.
    Lets have a sensible proposition
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    Benpointer said:



    I find it very hard not to value opinion polls that support my preferences and dismiss those that don't. I reckon most people fall into the same trap to some extent. Theresa did make one perceptive comment during the campaign, namely that there is only one poll that count; sadly for her, it proved to be an outlier.

    Lol - yes, after 2015 I used to claim that the election result was a biased sample. So are all elections with non-compulsory voting, really.

    I think we're going to have to get used to crises, walkouts, showndowns, last-minute tlaks, etc. over the next 12 months - it's how EU negotiations work. It's best not to get too excited by the twists and turns, many of which will be to impress one or another electorate or interest group.
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275
    edited July 2017
    williamglenn said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Benpointer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tyson said:

    AndyJS said:

    Survation putting the Tories narrowly in the lead is interesting. It suggest SouthamObserver's recent thread about Labour hubris may be on to something.

    Or...it could mean that opinion polls are a complete and utter waste of time....
    Survation are the gold standard though.
    I find it very hard not to value opinion polls that support my preferences and dismiss those that don't. I reckon most people fall into the same trap to some extent. Theresa did make one perceptive comment during the campaign, namely that there is only one poll that count; sadly for her, it proved to be an outlier.
    Look at the global picture.

    Labour ahead on VI and leadership, Tories ahead on the economy.

    That probably indicates a Labour lead of around 3%
    The global picture is that the Tories always lose when the Eurosceptics become too influential. The only way to create a majority against the left is for the Tories to be once again pro-EU. The idea that 'reuniting the right' through Brexit would pay electoral dividends has been proven to be false.
    Corbynism is barking. A well led moderate centre right party should be wiping the floor with Corbyn.
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275
    edited July 2017
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    surbiton said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Roger said:

    Just catching up. Now 46-54 for Remain. Scenarios are starting to open up where we reverse the Brexit decision. I can't see any reason why we will be forced to commit hara-kiri because some politicians feel we are obliged to be too inflexible to change course

    How do you think it could happen Roger
    Through a referendum, of course.
    Lets have a sensible proposition
    Negotiations end without agreement. We are faced with the choice of crashing out or revoking.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,106
    PeterC said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    surbiton said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Roger said:

    Just catching up. Now 46-54 for Remain. Scenarios are starting to open up where we reverse the Brexit decision. I can't see any reason why we will be forced to commit hara-kiri because some politicians feel we are obliged to be too inflexible to change course

    How do you think it could happen Roger
    Through a referendum, of course.
    Lets have a sensible proposition
    Negotiations end without agreement. We are faced with the choice of crashing out or revoking.
    My concern with another referendum results in the same result causing more chaos than we have now
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Roger said:

    Just catching up. Now 46-54 for Remain. Scenarios are starting to open up where we reverse the Brexit decision. I can't see any reason why we will be forced to commit hara-kiri because some politicians feel we are obliged to be too inflexible to change course

    How do you think it could happen Roger
    The first step is for the polls to show it's the will of the people. That's already begun. Next is a vote in parliament to call another Referendum. I can see several scenarios which could bring that about. The economy tanks. A rapid recession. A repeat of 2008. With Parliament in disarray it could happen.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,106
    Roger said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Roger said:

    Just catching up. Now 46-54 for Remain. Scenarios are starting to open up where we reverse the Brexit decision. I can't see any reason why we will be forced to commit hara-kiri because some politicians feel we are obliged to be too inflexible to change course

    How do you think it could happen Roger
    The first step is for the polls to show it's the will of the people. That's already begun. Next is a vote in parliament to call another Referendum. I can see several scenarios which could bring that about. The economy tanks. A rapid recession. A repeat of 2008. With Parliament in disarray it could happen.
    Lets be honest the whole thing is a mess and we need a coalition of the moderates across the parties to drive a sensible compromise , maybe EEA or similar
This discussion has been closed.