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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tactical voting didn’t win it for the Scottish Tories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tactical voting didn’t win it for the Scottish Tories
Jeremy Corbyn would be prime minister today if the Scottish Tories had done as badly three weeks ago as they did in 2015 (or any of the previous four elections). Without the dozen gains north of the border, a deal with the DUP wouldn’t have given her the numbers and a deal with anyone else couldn’t have been done. It would have been game over.
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So, a Labour voter who votes Tory to keep the SNP out is a tactical voter, and
a Labour voter who votes Tory is a Tory gain !!!!!!
Presumably, the voter writes his/her intention on the ballot paper !
I'd rather vote SNP to keep the Tories out.
I argued throughout the election that Scottish tactical voting in favour of the Tories would be unlikely, because people would dislike the Tories more than the possibility of another referendum, when they would be free to vote no anyway. The data suggests that Labour-Tory tactical voting was indeed low, but the LibDem vote appears to have been lent to the Tories in some seats like Gordon?
Someone needs to re-toxify the Tories in Scotland! The current limpalong government might be just the thing...
Yet, there's clearly a large minority that is both anti-EU and anti-independence, and the Tories were the party of choice for them.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-latest-british-strawberry-price-rise-fruit-farms-eu-workers-seasonal-labourers-pickers-a7802616.html
Such an one is Nicola Ferguson Sturgeon, First Minister or, in her own perception, Regent of Scotland..
https://reaction.life/tide-gone-nicola-sturgeon-struggling-snp/
It's slightly dangerous dealing in shares of vote because of differential turnout, but the point seems sound - and surprising.
Much easier to pick. Job jobbed!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4656064/Experts-engineer-new-breed-super-sized-strawberries.html
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/30/eu-states-examine-whether-uk-likely-reverse-brexit?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
As we skid towards the cliff edge Brexit, the Europeans start to wonder what we are playing at.
"An EU-based diplomat said the onus remained on the UK to come up with a plan. He cited a recent speech by the former UK ambassador to the EU Lord Kerr, who said: “It is odd, if we want a deep and special relationship with the EU, not to have proposed one. A year after the referendum, we have still put forward no plan, suggestion, outline or proposal for how one might in future organise cooperation”."
Ian Lavery told HuffPost UK that Labour will also fund an army of new “community champions” to organise at a constituency level, as the leadership eyes sweeping changes to the party’s power structure.
The former miner, who replaced deputy leader Tom Watson as chair in Jeremy Corbyn’s reshuffle, made clear “everything has got to be on the table” for reform, including the national policy forum Tony Blair founded or candidate selection.
http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/uk_59562e36e4b0da2c7322c70f?
Let the de-selections commence!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40461496
Jeremy Corbyn was facing an increasingly divided Labour party last night after Remain-supporting MPs warned they can't support his position on Brexit because their constituents do not support it.
MPs in remain-backing constituencies said they can't vote in favour of the leader's position on leaving the European Union, which is seen as increasingly hardline, for fear of losing their seats in another general election.
Their admission means the deep split is likely to widen in the coming weeks unless Labour can reconcile the two opposing viewpoints on its own benches and within its electorate.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/30/labour-supporters/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_fb
The drive for a $15 minimum wage in the US is having the opposite effect and McDonald's share price is rocketing at the moment as they roll out robot kiosks. And at the other end of the scale every train will be automated within a decade. And every Airbus wing will be built by pushing a few buttons.
We're going to need to look elsewhere for new industries and different jobs right across the spectrum - and very soon. Luddites will not be able to hold back the tide.
Meh.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/823384/jeremy-corbyn-labour-leader-plots-to-seize-full-control-general-election-popularity/amp
Some genuinely really good news:
https://bearingarms.com/jenn-j/2017/06/30/czech-republic-aims-arm-citizens-combat-terrorism/
In December, when the European Commission responded to terrorist attacks by passing stricter gun laws, only three countries stood against their impotent actions.
Now, one of them is taking matters into their own hands with a proposition to put the right to bear arms back into their Constitution and put guns into the hands of its citizens for protection.
On Wednesday, the lower house of the Czech parliament voted in favor of adding gun rights to their constitution.
“This constitutional bill is in reaction to the recent increase of security threats, especially the danger of violent acts such as isolated terrorist attacks … active attackers or other violent hybrid threats,” a draft of the bill reads.
“We don’t want to disarm our citizens at a time when the security situation in Europe is getting worse,” Interior Minister Milan Chovanec told parliament before Wednesday’s vote. “Show me a single terrorist attack in Europe perpetrated using a legally-owned weapon.”
I can actually think of one terrorist attack with a legally owned weapon ... but that just means that if those around that attack had been armed too it wouldn't have been as bad.
Anyway, good on the Czechs, I've always liked the place.
Apparently by refusing to let the EU have its courts rule on people in the UK and apply EU law to people in the UK, Davis is hamstrung.
It's a bad red line because we can't compromise on having our own laws apply in our own country, and be applied by our own courts.
....
It turns out he works for a company with a financial and political interest in the whole thing. But you have to make it to the very final sentence to learn that. Typical BiasedBBC.
:-)
And people wonder why there's declining faith in politics or the media.
Amazingly bad. Only just corrected herself from saying that Grenfell residents being charged rent was a tiny thing. Said the K&C council was doing a lot of 'hand holding'.
Banged on about how K&C had been rated an Excellent council.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40461496
A detail missing in the Russian owned London freesheet - I expect the editors too busy with his other jobs to pay attention to "details"
Early ripening ones too - June and July so perfect for Wimbledon.
Strawberry consumption will go up. There's no "problem" - just a great British opportunity.
Rejoice! We're leading the world again.
The seats in that list, which had Labour in contention - Aberdeen, Stirling, Ayr and East Renfrewshire - all saw the Labour vote share drop, in contrast to an increase across the country. The biggest surprise of the 2017 election in Scotland apart from the collapse in SNP support was Labour's return from the dead. The Conservative revival was well trailed, not least by themselves. To vote tactically you need an understanding of the relative strengths of the parties in the constituency. It's probable natural Labour voters underestimated their own party's prospects in those constituencies.
The last and maybe most important point is that people were already voting tactically in 2015.
Undoubtedly the Conservatives benefited from the collapse in SNP support, just as Labour did in the seats it won. However tactical voting was important too. Without it the Conservatives would not have won several seats they did win.
Mrs May has insisted the ECJ will have no jurisdiction over the UK.
But the EU insists that the ECJ must continue to offer legal protection for its citizens in the UK, just as it does now.
The UK is now the worst performing advanced economy on the planet.
'Xenophobes of the World Unite you have nothing to lose but your livelihood'
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/uk-economy-world-worst-performing-advanced-countries-state-g7-european-union-a7817046.html
a) The ECJ & ECHR have absolutely no control/influence over UK laws or people residing in the UK.
b) The UK has full control over its borders (including immigration) without any interference by the EU.
c) The UK determines its own tariffs and trading arrangements without any interference by the EU.
If that is considered a hard Brexit, so be it.
Cool. That's good enough for me.
Crack on - get busy doing it then.
Would you prefer daily encomiums to our great leader ?
after a year remainers have moved on from anger to bargaining, only two to go
No non EU members are subject to the ECJ - and if there's a case for the UK to be the first I've yet to see it.
How dare they want better condition and higher wages. Think of the effect on the poor consumers? There's a delicious irony here, and I can't help being amused. Am I living in an alternate universe?
No, the Labour Party has changed, it is now the party of the middle class, metropolitan elite. Bring me your posho, your advantaged journalist, your sociology lecturer, your gap-year student, your class-war warrior.
And the animals looked from pig to man ...
Does that count?
I see a few are still in denial
ps maybe you should have wasted some of that mental energy when the campaign was on
The broader picture is that the UK's recovery since 2008 remains pretty lousy compared to most other major economies, especially those which chose not to use austerity as a welcome excuse to shrink their public sectors.
Self-contradiction? I suppose the Labour Party now epitomise that. Are today's agricultural labourers the wrong sort of agricultural labourers and the Eastern European ones the right sort? And I know you don't vote Labour, so this is merely an observation.