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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s council by-elections

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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    In a sign that Labour’s profound splits on Brexit have not been soothed by the party’s successful election campaign, a fifth of Mr Corbyn’s MPs defied the whip to vote for an amendment to the Queen’s Speech attempting to soften Theresa May’s approach to Brexit.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/a27d460a-5d08-11e7-ad31-8e588690cd15
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,146
    Pulpstar said:

    Creasy should be 66-1+ for next Labour leader, possibly 100ish.

    She's not a leader.

    https://twitter.com/stellacreasy/status/844280476068204544
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    nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    BudG said:

    Brom said:

    Brom said:

    isam said:

    This soppy cow from The Canary on QT is embarassing

    Stella is a star though...
    "If you don't like gay marriage, don't propose to a man!!"

    "I don't like page 3, it should be banned!"
    I see why PB Tories don't like her, but savvy punters can see why she is a good punt for Labour leader.
    The last thing Labour need after Corbyn is a London MP like Creasy who has never had a real job in their life.
    I can see why the Tories are frightened by her. It was Creasy who tabled the amendment that first defeated this government.
    What have you been smoking? Clearly someone like Jarvis or Ashworth would be far more problematic for the Tories. If you're going to pick a London Leader than Starmer is a level above Creasy. Don't confuse your crushes with being a competent leader.
    I think one needs as a punter to distinguish between what is going to happen and what you want to happen politically. I think Labour is likely to have a woman leader shortly. I think that will be Thornberry,but could well be Creasy, Philippe or Nancy. Of these Creasy is likely to do well with the LP party vote.
    Please let it be Thornberry
    Of those that I mentioned, my best outcome is Jess Philipps. I am in the green on Thornberry too, who has the advantage of being close to JC politically, free of terrorist associations and who was a surprisingly effective campaigner.
    She is a rabid Remainer, so opposed to Corbyn on that issue, and the WWC hate her.

    Also a rentier having bought an ex-authority property as in investment, total Islington no idea what happens in the real world idiot.

    The media will slaughter her and rightly so, lay her for all you are worth.
    My bets are for leader not PM. I don't think the voters at GE favour your frothing worldview.
    My realistic view I think you mean.

    I sincerely hope your bet for her to be leader proves to be a winner, because Labour would be annihilated with her in charge.
    A lot of people on here said that about the guy with a beard from Islington.
    Difference is the WWC that voted Leave jumped in with Corbyn for the anti-establishment vote at the GE, Thornberry has already tweeted her disdain for the working class.
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    Derby Ward - West Lancashire Result

    Our West Lancashire 705
    Labour 596
    Conservative 362

    Our West Lancashire gain from Conservative
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    "Our West Lancashire" Gain :o
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    Fanboys?

    twitter.com/bbcthisweek/status/880572426521849857

    still needs a peerage to compete with the dearly missed Professor Lord Nuttall.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    British negotiators will begin talks with the US on a post-Brexit trade deal on 24 July, Liam Fox has revealed.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-trade-deal-liam-fox-uk-us-24-july-a7815751.html
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    British negotiators will begin talks with the US on a post-Brexit trade deal on 24 July, Liam Fox has revealed.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-trade-deal-liam-fox-uk-us-24-july-a7815751.html

    "Announcement comes despite EU rules that prohibit deals being made with third countries while UK remains a member state"

    Doesn't mean you can't do all the groundwork before hand.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    RobD said:

    British negotiators will begin talks with the US on a post-Brexit trade deal on 24 July, Liam Fox has revealed.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-trade-deal-liam-fox-uk-us-24-july-a7815751.html

    "Announcement comes despite EU rules that prohibit deals being made with third countries while UK remains a member state"

    Doesn't mean you can't do all the groundwork before hand.
    What are they going to do? Chuck us out?
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,146
    edited June 2017

    RobD said:

    British negotiators will begin talks with the US on a post-Brexit trade deal on 24 July, Liam Fox has revealed.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-trade-deal-liam-fox-uk-us-24-july-a7815751.html

    "Announcement comes despite EU rules that prohibit deals being made with third countries while UK remains a member state"

    Doesn't mean you can't do all the groundwork before hand.
    What are they going to do? Chuck us out?
    More to the point what's Fox going to discuss? It's the kind of PR coup that only works if there isn't any substance to it, because any conceivable details that could emerge from the 'scoping' talks will just open a political can of worms in Westminster.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    RobD said:

    British negotiators will begin talks with the US on a post-Brexit trade deal on 24 July, Liam Fox has revealed.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-trade-deal-liam-fox-uk-us-24-july-a7815751.html

    "Announcement comes despite EU rules that prohibit deals being made with third countries while UK remains a member state"

    Doesn't mean you can't do all the groundwork before hand.
    What are they going to do? Chuck us out?
    More to the point what's Fox going to discuss? It's the kind of PR coup that only works if their isn't any substance to it, because any conceivable details that could emerge from the 'scoping' talks will just open a political can of worms in Westminster.
    For starters they can discuss plans for different outcomes.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,146
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    British negotiators will begin talks with the US on a post-Brexit trade deal on 24 July, Liam Fox has revealed.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-trade-deal-liam-fox-uk-us-24-july-a7815751.html

    "Announcement comes despite EU rules that prohibit deals being made with third countries while UK remains a member state"

    Doesn't mean you can't do all the groundwork before hand.
    What are they going to do? Chuck us out?
    More to the point what's Fox going to discuss? It's the kind of PR coup that only works if their isn't any substance to it, because any conceivable details that could emerge from the 'scoping' talks will just open a political can of worms in Westminster.
    For starters they can discuss plans for different outcomes.
    There's the 'no deal' outcome, in which we'll be seriously desperate, the 'bad deal' outcome, in which we'll be really desperate, the 'good deal' outcome, in which we'll be desperate to put a good spin on it, or the 'cancel Brexit' outcome, in which case we'll be wasting everyone's time.

    From the US perspective the only obvious interest would be in using us as a pawn in TTIP negotiations.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    British negotiators will begin talks with the US on a post-Brexit trade deal on 24 July, Liam Fox has revealed.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-trade-deal-liam-fox-uk-us-24-july-a7815751.html

    "Announcement comes despite EU rules that prohibit deals being made with third countries while UK remains a member state"

    Doesn't mean you can't do all the groundwork before hand.
    What are they going to do? Chuck us out?
    More to the point what's Fox going to discuss? It's the kind of PR coup that only works if their isn't any substance to it, because any conceivable details that could emerge from the 'scoping' talks will just open a political can of worms in Westminster.
    For starters they can discuss plans for different outcomes.
    There's the 'no deal' outcome, in which we'll be seriously desperate, the 'bad deal' outcome, in which we'll be really desperate, the 'good deal' outcome, in which we'll be desperate to put a good spin on it, or the 'cancel Brexit' outcome, in which case we'll be wasting everyone's time.

    From the US perspective the only obvious interest would be in using us as a pawn in TTIP negotiations.
    Boy am I glad you aren't involved in the negotiations.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,146
    Some comments from Estonia's President which sum up the positive effect of Brexit on political discourse in Europe.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/29/eu-negotiator-says-ecj-should-still-be-able-to-fine-uk-after-brexit

    “Partly, I believe this is because straight after the Brexit vote everyone in Europe realised that blaming Brussels is not cheap at all.

    “You may blame your country out of the European Union, which isn’t anyone’s objective, not in the mainstream political scale at least."
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    Derby Ward - West Lancashire Result

    Our West Lancashire 705
    Labour 596
    Conservative 362

    Our West Lancashire gain from Conservative

    They should elect MP's then try to get a £1billion bung for West Lancashire.
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    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038

    Pulpstar said:

    Creasy should be 66-1+ for next Labour leader, possibly 100ish.

    She's not a leader.

    https://twitter.com/stellacreasy/status/844280476068204544
    tbf the stations in Berlin are v confusing
    (Germans probably say the same about London)
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rpjs said:

    I hope the William Morris ward voters choose someone who they know to be useful or believe to be beautiful.

    I used to live just the other side of the A12 from that ward and I can assure you that the ward itself is most certainly not beautiful. It does contain Lloyd Park, and WM's former house, now a museum of his life and work, so I suppose it is useful.
    The William Morris Gallery redevelopment was my team's first attempt to regenerate local areas through targeted intervention in the museum sector. Really pleased how it turned out - the council have really seen the value of the Gallery as an economic driver and has stepped up in a big way
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    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    justin124 said:

    OllyT said:

    Ave_it said:

    Third!

    Like LAB in #GE2022

    Who's gonna come 2nd in 2022 then?

    And who 1st, given the Tories will deffo be behind Labour :-)?
    Of all the Labour MPs we had to choose a leader that is one of the handful of anti-EU MPs and at such a critical time.

    As it dawns on people how pro-Brexit he really is I think a split in the Labour party will become highly likely and he will lose many of the new votes he gained a couple of weeks ago.

    But it was not a Brexit election - had it been so Theresa May would have won a clear majority..
    We had the Brexit election in 2016. May was stupid to try to have another one - an idea that started to unravel almost immediately.

    The next GE might be a kind of Brexit referendum though. If Brexit goes badly, it's hard to see how the Tories can do well at the next election. May's tied the party to Brexit. If it goes badly, voters won't blame themselves for making a bad choice, they'll blame the politicians who called the referendum, misled them (in their eyes), chose to go through with the whole thing even though they knew it was a bad idea, and who have been associated with the clusterf*** that is the negotiations.

    The Tories could've innoculated themselves from the negative effects by making Brexit a cross-party project. As it is, a split Labour Party is getting a free ride. It has no power, so it can snipe from the sidelines at the same time as having internal disagreements. A pleasant situation to be in. With any luck (as far as Corbyn's concerned) the next GE will be after we leave the EU, so the problems he's having will be moot.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    RobD said:

    British negotiators will begin talks with the US on a post-Brexit trade deal on 24 July, Liam Fox has revealed.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-trade-deal-liam-fox-uk-us-24-july-a7815751.html

    "Announcement comes despite EU rules that prohibit deals being made with third countries while UK remains a member state"

    Doesn't mean you can't do all the groundwork before hand.
    What are they going to do? Chuck us out?
    No. It will illegal, simple. You cannot have two valid trade deals running concurrently. Like it or not, we are still members of the EU.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    surbiton said:

    RobD said:

    British negotiators will begin talks with the US on a post-Brexit trade deal on 24 July, Liam Fox has revealed.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-trade-deal-liam-fox-uk-us-24-july-a7815751.html

    "Announcement comes despite EU rules that prohibit deals being made with third countries while UK remains a member state"

    Doesn't mean you can't do all the groundwork before hand.
    What are they going to do? Chuck us out?
    No. It will illegal, simple. You cannot have two valid trade deals running concurrently. Like it or not, we are still members of the EU.
    Negotiations, not a deal, before we leave.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Chris said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I think Labour is likely to have a woman leader shortly.

    Corbyn isn't getting rid of his meat and two veg any time soon, and neither is McDonnell.
    Well that's where you're wrong, because Jez is a vegetarian.
    And a teetotaller.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Britain Elects ‎@britainelects
    William Morris (Waltham Forest) result:

    LAB 68.4% (+11.5)
    GRN 18.6% (+1.8)
    CON 13.0% (+6.2)
    LDEM NA (-7.4)
    TUSC NA (-4.3)
    UKIP NA (-7.8)

    Hedge End Grange Park (Eastleigh):

    LDEM 56.5% (+15.5)
    CON 26.7% (-10.9)
    LAB 12.2% (+0.9)
    GRN 3.5% (+3.5)
    UKIP 1.2% (-9.0)

    Sleazy Tories and Kippers on the slide.


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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    surbiton said:

    Chris said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I think Labour is likely to have a woman leader shortly.

    Corbyn isn't getting rid of his meat and two veg any time soon, and neither is McDonnell.
    Well that's where you're wrong, because Jez is a vegetarian.
    And a teetotaller.
    I'm sure Ken could point out other vegetarian tee-total leaders from history....
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,900
    edited June 2017
    .
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,050
    surbiton said:

    Chris said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I think Labour is likely to have a woman leader shortly.

    Corbyn isn't getting rid of his meat and two veg any time soon, and neither is McDonnell.
    Well that's where you're wrong, because Jez is a vegetarian.
    And a teetotaller.

    That's why at 68 he is in remarkably good shape and will easily hold on for the next GE whenever that takes place. Jezz ain't going anywhere.
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    Can we hear from the liberal left contributors as to why this happened? "We are a government in waiting", now sounds more stupid than "strong and stable government". 20% of Labour MP's gave Corbyn the finger.
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