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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s council by-elections

Four council by-elections today: two Labour defences, one Conservative and one Lib Dem. @AndrewTeale's previews: https://t.co/sB47GgLt27 pic.twitter.com/oJECfONqkD

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Benpointer

first?

AlastairMeeks

I hope the William Morris ward voters choose someone who they know to be useful or believe to be beautiful.

Ave_it

Third!

Like LAB in #GE2022

Benpointer

Ave_it said:

Third!

Like LAB in #GE2022

Who's gonna come 2nd in 2022 then?

And who 1st, given the Tories will deffo be behind Labour :-)?

GIN1138

Ave_it said:

Third!

Like LAB in #GE2022

Who will be second though Ave It?

Scott_P

I won! (Like Jeremy Corbyn...)

TheScreamingEagles

Benpointer said:

Ave_it said:

Third!

Like LAB in #GE2022

Who's gonna come 2nd in 2022 then?

And who 1st, given the Tories will deffo be behind Labour :-)?

First will be the British En Marche, led by George Osborne.

Stark_Dawning

Seriously - the Tories should now engineer another election and get Jezza as PM. He's going to get exactly what he wants anyway - ultra-hard Brexit with Britain ignominiously dumped into WTO rules - so it may as well be him who's given responsibility for it. As it stands, Theresa, Boris and DD are being set up to look like charlatans or fools. Why suffer that humiliation?

TheScreamingEagles

There's a Survation phone poll out tomorrow.

Benpointer

Stark_Dawning said:

Seriously - the Tories should now engineer another election and get Jezza as PM. He's going to get exactly what he wants anyway - ultra-hard Brexit with Britain ignominiously dumped into WTO rules - so it may as well be him who's given responsibility for it. As it stands, Theresa, Boris and DD are being set up to look like charlatans or fools. Why suffer that humiliation?

Because politicians cling to power the way mere mortals cling to life?

FF43

Stark_Dawning said:

Seriously - the Tories should now engineer another election and get Jezza as PM. He's going to get exactly what he wants anyway - ultra-hard Brexit with Britain ignominiously dumped into WTO rules - so it may as well be him who's given responsibility for it. As it stands, Theresa, Boris and DD are being set up to look like charlatans or fools. Why suffer that humiliation?

Ironically the Tories may win after tonight's vote.

rcs1000

nunuone said:

rcs1000 said:

nunu said:

Jonathan said:

rcs1000 said:

calum said:

rcs1000 said:

Has anyone else read the Deloitte article on the UK labour market post Brexit.

They surveyed 1,200 EU and non-EU nationals living in the UK and asked them if Brexit would make any difference to their willingness to stay in the UK.

The bit that was most concerning was that Brexit appeared to be discouraging exactly those people we wish to stay, with 47% of highly skilled workers from other EU countries now expecting to leave in the next five years. A far smaller proportion of low skilled workers planned on leaving.

My guess - and this is just a guess - that perceptions matter. The UK is seen as a less attractive place to emigrate to, and therefore our immigration levels will continue the fall seen from the middle of last year.

Last week's data showing a 96% fall in nursing registration applications from the EU, indicates that not only are skilled workers thinking of leaving but they're being put off coming as well.

I've forecast that net migration would go negative by the end of 2020 many times.

I remain confident in that forecast.

(Note: falling population, plus massive quantity of new homes built = lower prices.)

They'll be talking about the brain drain soon enough.

net migration won't go negative, no chance.

No chance? So, offering me 1,000-1 odds would be like free money for you.

How much free money would you like to make by offering me a bet?

OK maybe "no chance" is overstating it........

........like a 95% chance. I think the third world won't be able to grow fast enough to create jobs for an ever increasing population. Pakistan for example needs 6% growth just to keep the unemployment rate the same. This will lead to both economic migration and migration from conflict. They will be desperate to come here. What's more the Tory party is the party for big business, they will do whatever it takes to keep their donors happy, which includes high migration.


I could see migration rules being relaxed from Commonwealth countries like India to get into their good books for possible trade MoU's.

What is your source for Pakistan needing 6% growth to keep unemployment flat? (Also, I'm not convinced that people voted to go from importing Polish plumbers to their Pakistani equivalents.)

Ultimately, though, India and Pakistan are simply not that enamored with the whole idea of free trade. Canada is keen on free trade. So is South Korea. The Mexicans are getting keener now, as is Mercosur. But India and Pakistan, really, not so much.

Ave_it

TheScreamingEagles said:

There's a Survation phone poll out tomorrow.

I think CON will be 5% clear!

Benpointer

Scott_P said:

I won! (Like Jeremy Corbyn...)

You're a dead cert for next time though!

Benpointer

FF43 said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Seriously - the Tories should now engineer another election and get Jezza as PM. He's going to get exactly what he wants anyway - ultra-hard Brexit with Britain ignominiously dumped into WTO rules - so it may as well be him who's given responsibility for it. As it stands, Theresa, Boris and DD are being set up to look like charlatans or fools. Why suffer that humiliation?

Ironically the Tories may win after tonight's vote.

Hahahaha - even GO's Britain On the Move (Britain Working ?!) is more likely than that!

Roger

FF43 said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Seriously - the Tories should now engineer another election and get Jezza as PM. He's going to get exactly what he wants anyway - ultra-hard Brexit with Britain ignominiously dumped into WTO rules - so it may as well be him who's given responsibility for it. As it stands, Theresa, Boris and DD are being set up to look like charlatans or fools. Why suffer that humiliation?

Ironically the Tories may win after tonight's vote.

I think you're right. Corbyn has exposed himself and I doubt his supporters will find it a pretty sight

Scott_P

Benpointer said:

You're a dead cert for next time though!

Soon as I sack some of my team...

Benpointer

Ave_it said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

There's a Survation phone poll out tomorrow.

I think CON will be 5% clear!

Dumb question re phone polls - do they use landline and mobile numbers?

TheScreamingEagles

Benpointer said:

Ave_it said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

There's a Survation phone poll out tomorrow.

I think CON will be 5% clear!

Dumb question re phone polls - do they use landline and mobile numbers?

Yes.

Benpointer

Roger said:

FF43 said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Seriously - the Tories should now engineer another election and get Jezza as PM. He's going to get exactly what he wants anyway - ultra-hard Brexit with Britain ignominiously dumped into WTO rules - so it may as well be him who's given responsibility for it. As it stands, Theresa, Boris and DD are being set up to look like charlatans or fools. Why suffer that humiliation?

Ironically the Tories may win after tonight's vote.

I think you're right. Corbyn has exposed himself and I doubt his supporters will find it a pretty sight

Dream on!

Benpointer

TheScreamingEagles said:

Benpointer said:

Ave_it said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

There's a Survation phone poll out tomorrow.

I think CON will be 5% clear!

Dumb question re phone polls - do they use landline and mobile numbers?

Yes.

Thanks

FrancisUrquhart

Ave_it said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

There's a Survation phone poll out tomorrow.

I think CON will be 5% clear!

Nah, we will see the Glastonbury headliner well clear.

OllyT

Benpointer said:

Ave_it said:

Third!

Like LAB in #GE2022

Who's gonna come 2nd in 2022 then?

And who 1st, given the Tories will deffo be behind Labour :-)?

Of all the Labour MPs we had to choose a leader that is one of the handful of anti-EU MPs and at such a critical time.

As it dawns on people how pro-Brexit he really is I think a split in the Labour party will become highly likely and he will lose many of the new votes he gained a couple of weeks ago.

isam

Jeremy wants Hard Brexit - where were the signs?

https://youtu.be/cZZcq25TTiQ

Danny565

Ave_it said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

There's a Survation phone poll out tomorrow.

I think CON will be 5% clear!

Funnily enough, a poll like that would've been seen as a disaster for the Cons just 2 months ago

Danny565

OllyT said:

Benpointer said:

Ave_it said:

Third!

Like LAB in #GE2022

Who's gonna come 2nd in 2022 then?

And who 1st, given the Tories will deffo be behind Labour :-)?

Of all the Labour MPs we had to choose a leader that is one of the handful of anti-EU MPs and at such a critical time.

As it dawns on people how pro-Brexit he really is I think a split in the Labour party will become highly likely and he will lose many of the new votes he gained a couple of weeks ago.

Except only 6% of Labour voters considered Brexit their #1 issue, according to Survation.

rpjs

AlastairMeeks said:

I hope the William Morris ward voters choose someone who they know to be useful or believe to be beautiful.

I used to live just the other side of the A12 from that ward and I can assure you that the ward itself is most certainly not beautiful. It does contain Lloyd Park, and WM's former house, now a museum of his life and work, so I suppose it is useful.

FrancisUrquhart

Driver arrested after trying to drive into crowd of people outside Paris mosque

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/29/car-drives-crowd-people-outside-french-mosque/

rcs1000

isam said:

Jeremy wants Hard Brexit - where were the signs?

https://youtu.be/cZZcq25TTiQ

Wow! He has his tie actually on properly.

Benpointer

OllyT said:

Benpointer said:

Ave_it said:

Third!

Like LAB in #GE2022

Who's gonna come 2nd in 2022 then?

And who 1st, given the Tories will deffo be behind Labour :-)?

Of all the Labour MPs we had to choose a leader that is one of the handful of anti-EU MPs and at such a critical time.

As it dawns on people how pro-Brexit he really is I think a split in the Labour party will become highly likely and he will lose many of the new votes he gained a couple of weeks ago.

Labour no more likely to split over Brexit than the Tories imo. Both could happen of course but I am not sure the Remain elements of Con and Lab have enough in common to form a new party.

glw

Roger said:

FF43 said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Seriously - the Tories should now engineer another election and get Jezza as PM. He's going to get exactly what he wants anyway - ultra-hard Brexit with Britain ignominiously dumped into WTO rules - so it may as well be him who's given responsibility for it. As it stands, Theresa, Boris and DD are being set up to look like charlatans or fools. Why suffer that humiliation?

Ironically the Tories may win after tonight's vote.

I think you're right. Corbyn has exposed himself and I doubt his supporters will find it a pretty sight

It's fairly obvious that most Corbyn supporters were projecting their views onto Jezza, he remains the same stubborn old fool.

FrancisUrquhart

rcs1000 said:

isam said:

Jeremy wants Hard Brexit - where were the signs?

https://youtu.be/cZZcq25TTiQ

Wow! He has his tie actually on properly.

Mum must have done it for him.

FrancisUrquhart

glw said:

Roger said:

FF43 said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Seriously - the Tories should now engineer another election and get Jezza as PM. He's going to get exactly what he wants anyway - ultra-hard Brexit with Britain ignominiously dumped into WTO rules - so it may as well be him who's given responsibility for it. As it stands, Theresa, Boris and DD are being set up to look like charlatans or fools. Why suffer that humiliation?

Ironically the Tories may win after tonight's vote.

I think you're right. Corbyn has exposed himself and I doubt his supporters will find it a pretty sight

It's fairly obvious that most Corbyn supporters were projecting their views onto Jezza, he remains the same stubborn old fool.

This...I have seen loads of it on Facebook with people saying he is pro x or y when he definitely is not.

Benpointer

rpjs said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I hope the William Morris ward voters choose someone who they know to be useful or believe to be beautiful.

I used to live just the other side of the A12 from that ward and I can assure you that the ward itself is most certainly not beautiful. It does contain Lloyd Park, and WM's former house, now a museum of his life and work, so I suppose it is useful.

It doesn't have to be beautiful, you've only got to believe it to be so... anything can pass that test with someone.

FF43

Benpointer said:

FF43 said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Seriously - the Tories should now engineer another election and get Jezza as PM. He's going to get exactly what he wants anyway - ultra-hard Brexit with Britain ignominiously dumped into WTO rules - so it may as well be him who's given responsibility for it. As it stands, Theresa, Boris and DD are being set up to look like charlatans or fools. Why suffer that humiliation?

Ironically the Tories may win after tonight's vote.

Hahahaha - even GO's Britain On the Move (Britain Working ?!) is more likely than that!

Remainers, who make up two thirds of Labour voters will partly abstain or shift to the Lib Dems. That benefits the Conservatives.

OllyT

Danny565 said:

OllyT said:

Benpointer said:

Ave_it said:

Third!

Like LAB in #GE2022

Who's gonna come 2nd in 2022 then?

And who 1st, given the Tories will deffo be behind Labour :-)?

Of all the Labour MPs we had to choose a leader that is one of the handful of anti-EU MPs and at such a critical time.

As it dawns on people how pro-Brexit he really is I think a split in the Labour party will become highly likely and he will lose many of the new votes he gained a couple of weeks ago.

Except only 6% of Labour voters considered Brexit their #1 issue, according to Survation.

I thought it had been concluded that after controlling for other factors that Labour did better the more remain the seat. His voting demographic is certainly very pro-remain and he certainly soft-pedalled his views during the GE and pretended to be a remainer during the referendum - man of principle my arse. I've had it with him and I suspect I will not be the only one.

glw

FrancisUrquhart said:

This...I have seen loads of it on Facebook with people saying he is pro x or y when he definitely is not.

I don't do Facebook, but yeah most of what I've read about Corbyn from his new found fans is utter bollocks.

isam

FrancisUrquhart said:

Driver arrested after trying to drive into crowd of people outside Paris mosque

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/29/car-drives-crowd-people-outside-french-mosque/

The price we pay for the multicultural experiment is too high

rcs1000

I'm still struggling with the idea that anyone who loves music can hate Radiohead.

Listen to this
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LCJblaUkkfc

Benpointer

OllyT said:

Danny565 said:

OllyT said:

Benpointer said:

Ave_it said:

Third!

Like LAB in #GE2022

Who's gonna come 2nd in 2022 then?

And who 1st, given the Tories will deffo be behind Labour :-)?

Of all the Labour MPs we had to choose a leader that is one of the handful of anti-EU MPs and at such a critical time.

As it dawns on people how pro-Brexit he really is I think a split in the Labour party will become highly likely and he will lose many of the new votes he gained a couple of weeks ago.

Except only 6% of Labour voters considered Brexit their #1 issue, according to Survation.

I thought it had been concluded that after controlling for other factors that Labour did better the more remain the seat. His voting demographic is certainly very pro-remain and he certainly soft-pedalled his views during the GE and pretended to be a remainer during the referendum - man of principle my arse. I've had it with him and I suspect I will not be the only one.

Virtually everyone (even avid Remainers like myself) thinks Brexit inevitable, so Corbyn's line on Brexit is not a significant factor... public services and intergenerational inequality much more important.

glw

rcs1000 said:

I'm still struggling with the idea that anyone who loves music can hate Radiohead.

My favourite, but I think they could have called it a day after OK Computer, that would have been great.

FrancisUrquhart

rcs1000 said:

I'm still struggling with the idea that anyone who loves music can hate Radiohead.

Listen to this
youtube.com/watch?v=LCJblaUkkfc

It's a bit whiny and doesn't half go ;-)

tyson

rcs1000 said:

I'm still struggling with the idea that anyone who loves music can hate Radiohead.

Listen to this
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LCJblaUkkfc

I think that listening to Radiohead makes you a better person...they are quite simply the most mesmeric, eclectically brilliant popular musicians of my lifetime....

I commented to you Glasto night that Yorke's rendition of No Surprises was flat...I have now re-watchjed that stunningly brilliant show twice again and think that Yorke did that deliberately...

BTW....this record is sublime and beautiful....

AlastairMeeks

Radiohead are ok. With the benefit of hindsight, they were better than average.

Sean_F

Danny565 said:

OllyT said:

Benpointer said:

Ave_it said:

Third!

Like LAB in #GE2022

Who's gonna come 2nd in 2022 then?

And who 1st, given the Tories will deffo be behind Labour :-)?

Of all the Labour MPs we had to choose a leader that is one of the handful of anti-EU MPs and at such a critical time.

As it dawns on people how pro-Brexit he really is I think a split in the Labour party will become highly likely and he will lose many of the new votes he gained a couple of weeks ago.

Except only 6% of Labour voters considered Brexit their #1 issue, according to Survation.

The converts, who switched from the Conservatives to Labour over the EU, will probably not switch back. I'm not sure why they thought the Conservatives were a pro-EU party previously, but people deceive themselves. Two days after the EU vote, I was at a gathering of very rich people in Arkley who were all ranting and raving about it. I thought they'd get over it, but they didn't, and Theresa Villiers' majority was slashed.

TheScreamingEagles

Honestly can anyone name a decent Radiohead track after Karma Police?

I feel like I need to do a Radiohead themed thread in the next fortnight.

Thom Yorke, the Jeremy Corbyn of the musical world.

FrancisUrquhart

TheScreamingEagles said:

Honestly can anyone name a decent Radiohead track after Karma Police?

I feel like I need to do a Radiohead themed thread in the next fortnight.

Thom Yorke, the Jeremy Corbyn of the musical world.

I bloody hope he isn't still as popular 20 years after his greatest hit as radiohead are.

isam

AlastairMeeks said:

Radiohead are ok. With the benefit of hindsight, they were better than average.

Karma Police on Letterman is beautiful

tyson

isam said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Driver arrested after trying to drive into crowd of people outside Paris mosque

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/29/car-drives-crowd-people-outside-french-mosque/

The price we pay for the multicultural experiment is too high

And seeing that migration is as natural to human beings as procreating, eating or sleeping you tell me Isam what the hell we are supposed to do about migration? Ban it? Only allow whites to migrate to where they want? Only allow people with money to move to where they want? Only allow Christians to migrate?

AlastairMeeks

Sean_F said:

Danny565 said:

OllyT said:

Benpointer said:

Ave_it said:

Third!

Like LAB in #GE2022

Who's gonna come 2nd in 2022 then?

And who 1st, given the Tories will deffo be behind Labour :-)?

Of all the Labour MPs we had to choose a leader that is one of the handful of anti-EU MPs and at such a critical time.

As it dawns on people how pro-Brexit he really is I think a split in the Labour party will become highly likely and he will lose many of the new votes he gained a couple of weeks ago.

Except only 6% of Labour voters considered Brexit their #1 issue, according to Survation.

The converts, who switched from the Conservatives to Labour over the EU, will probably not switch back. I'm not sure why they thought the Conservatives were a pro-EU party previously, but people deceive themselves. Two days after the EU vote, I was at a gathering of very rich people in Arkley who were all ranting and raving about it. I thought they'd get over it, but they didn't, and Theresa Villiers' majority was slashed.

The Conservatives have killed their reputation for rationality with non-zealots by aiming to be the party of Brexit. Labour's trimming on the subject of Brexit won't improve the Conservatives' reputation on that front.

isam

tyson said:

isam said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Driver arrested after trying to drive into crowd of people outside Paris mosque

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/29/car-drives-crowd-people-outside-french-mosque/

The price we pay for the multicultural experiment is too high

And seeing that migration is as natural to human beings as procreating, eating or sleeping you tell me Isam what the hell we are supposed to do about migration? Ban it? Only allow whites to migrate to where they want? Only allow people with money to move to where they want? Only allow Christians to migrate?

Control it

RobD

tyson said:

isam said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Driver arrested after trying to drive into crowd of people outside Paris mosque

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/29/car-drives-crowd-people-outside-french-mosque/

The price we pay for the multicultural experiment is too high

And seeing that migration is as natural to human beings as procreating, eating or sleeping you tell me Isam what the hell we are supposed to do about migration? Ban it? Only allow whites to migrate to where they want? Only allow people with money to move to where they want? Only allow Christians to migrate?

I think the problem is the lack of integration (which is a two-way street).

Radiohead

rcs1000 said:

I'm still struggling with the idea that anyone who loves music can hate Radiohead.

Preach!!!

TheScreamingEagles

Ugh, what a muppet Simon Kelner is

https://twitter.com/theipaper/status/880536886426484737

tyson

TheScreamingEagles said:

Honestly can anyone name a decent Radiohead track after Karma Police?

I feel like I need to do a Radiohead themed thread in the next fortnight.

Thom Yorke, the Jeremy Corbyn of the musical world.

Everything they have done since OK Computer is elevated.

I'm thankful I was too old for Radiohead....my youth was misspent with New Order, the Cure and the Smiths and the like. If Radiohead had been around then I would have become completely obsessed.

Sean_F

tyson said:

isam said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Driver arrested after trying to drive into crowd of people outside Paris mosque

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/29/car-drives-crowd-people-outside-french-mosque/

The price we pay for the multicultural experiment is too high

And seeing that migration is as natural to human beings as procreating, eating or sleeping you tell me Isam what the hell we are supposed to do about migration? Ban it? Only allow whites to migrate to where they want? Only allow people with money to move to where they want? Only allow Christians to migrate?

Those are quite interesting suggestions.

RobD

Radiohead said:

rcs1000 said:

I'm still struggling with the idea that anyone who loves music can hate Radiohead.

Preach!!!

I hope this isn't a start of a trend of novelty accounts. Or is that rcs1000 in disguise?

Scott_P

TheScreamingEagles said:

Honestly can anyone name a decent Radiohead track

No. No they can't.

TheScreamingEagles

tyson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Honestly can anyone name a decent Radiohead track after Karma Police?

I feel like I need to do a Radiohead themed thread in the next fortnight.

Thom Yorke, the Jeremy Corbyn of the musical world.

Everything they have done since OK Computer is elevated.

I'm thankful I was too old for Radiohead....my youth was misspent with New Order, the Cure and the Smiths and the like. If Radiohead had been around then I would have become completely obsessed.

New Order, alongside Queen, and The Rolling Stones were the bands that made me fall in love with music.

Benpointer

tyson said:

isam said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Driver arrested after trying to drive into crowd of people outside Paris mosque

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/29/car-drives-crowd-people-outside-french-mosque/

The price we pay for the multicultural experiment is too high

And seeing that migration is as natural to human beings as procreating, eating or sleeping you tell me Isam what the hell we are supposed to do about migration? Ban it? Only allow whites to migrate to where they want? Only allow people with money to move to where they want? Only allow Christians to migrate?

+1

And in what sense is multiculturalism an 'experiment'? - it's just an inevitable consequence of technology allowing people to move and communicate across distances more easily/rapidly. No one said 'why don't we try this out and see if it works'. (And it's great and life-enriching btw)

tyson

isam said:

tyson said:

isam said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Driver arrested after trying to drive into crowd of people outside Paris mosque

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/29/car-drives-crowd-people-outside-french-mosque/

The price we pay for the multicultural experiment is too high

And seeing that migration is as natural to human beings as procreating, eating or sleeping you tell me Isam what the hell we are supposed to do about migration? Ban it? Only allow whites to migrate to where they want? Only allow people with money to move to where they want? Only allow Christians to migrate?

Control it

Control migration is simply a smokescreen to stopping people of colour moving from poorer to richer countries.

No-one gives a shit about tons of rich white folk living between countries.

UKIP attack the establishment elite. There is nothing more egalitarian than the poorest in the world trying to move to improve their lives.

isam

Benpointer said:

tyson said:

isam said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Driver arrested after trying to drive into crowd of people outside Paris mosque

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/29/car-drives-crowd-people-outside-french-mosque/

The price we pay for the multicultural experiment is too high

And seeing that migration is as natural to human beings as procreating, eating or sleeping you tell me Isam what the hell we are supposed to do about migration? Ban it? Only allow whites to migrate to where they want? Only allow people with money to move to where they want? Only allow Christians to migrate?

+1

And in what sense is multiculturalism an 'experiment'? - it's just an inevitable consequence of technology allowing people to move and communicate across distances more easily/rapidly. No one said 'why don't we try this out and see if it works'. (And it's great and life-enriching btw)

All those backward Islamic republics that don't allow it.. pfft how you must hate them

NickPalmer

Radiohead said:

rcs1000 said:

I'm still struggling with the idea that anyone who loves music can hate Radiohead.

Preach!!!

You mean the warm-up group for Jeremy Corbyn?

Sean_F

AlastairMeeks said:

Sean_F said:

Danny565 said:

OllyT said:

Benpointer said:

Ave_it said:

Third!

Like LAB in #GE2022

Who's gonna come 2nd in 2022 then?

And who 1st, given the Tories will deffo be behind Labour :-)?

Of all the Labour MPs we had to choose a leader that is one of the handful of anti-EU MPs and at such a critical time.

As it dawns on people how pro-Brexit he really is I think a split in the Labour party will become highly likely and he will lose many of the new votes he gained a couple of weeks ago.

Except only 6% of Labour voters considered Brexit their #1 issue, according to Survation.

The converts, who switched from the Conservatives to Labour over the EU, will probably not switch back. I'm not sure why they thought the Conservatives were a pro-EU party previously, but people deceive themselves. Two days after the EU vote, I was at a gathering of very rich people in Arkley who were all ranting and raving about it. I thought they'd get over it, but they didn't, and Theresa Villiers' majority was slashed.

The Conservatives have killed their reputation for rationality with non-zealots by aiming to be the party of Brexit. Labour's trimming on the subject of Brexit won't improve the Conservatives' reputation on that front.

But, such people ought to have got the hint that the Conservatives weren't exactly fond of the EU. Maybe they thought it was just posturing, and suddenly realised that it wasn't.

PClipp

OllyT said:

Of all the Labour MPs we had to choose a leader that is one of the handful of anti-EU MPs and at such a critical time.
As it dawns on people how pro-Brexit he really is I think a split in the Labour party will become highly likely and he will lose many of the new votes he gained a couple of weeks ago.

Anecdotal, but I think that has already started.

NickPalmer

Benpointer said:

Ave_it said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

There's a Survation phone poll out tomorrow.

I think CON will be 5% clear!

Dumb question re phone polls - do they use landline and mobile numbers?

Yes, they do.

Sean_F

tyson said:

isam said:

tyson said:

isam said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Driver arrested after trying to drive into crowd of people outside Paris mosque

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/29/car-drives-crowd-people-outside-french-mosque/

The price we pay for the multicultural experiment is too high

And seeing that migration is as natural to human beings as procreating, eating or sleeping you tell me Isam what the hell we are supposed to do about migration? Ban it? Only allow whites to migrate to where they want? Only allow people with money to move to where they want? Only allow Christians to migrate?

Control it

Control migration is simply a smokescreen to stopping people of colour moving from poorer to richer countries.

No-one gives a shit about tons of rich white folk living between countries.

UKIP attack the establishment elite. There is nothing more egalitarian than the poorest in the world trying to move to improve their lives.

Your point being?

AlastairMeeks

Sean_F said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Sean_F said:

Danny565 said:

OllyT said:

Benpointer said:

Ave_it said:

Third!

Like LAB in #GE2022

Who's gonna come 2nd in 2022 then?

And who 1st, given the Tories will deffo be behind Labour :-)?

Of all the Labour MPs we had to choose a leader that is one of the handful of anti-EU MPs and at such a critical time.

As it dawns on people how pro-Brexit he really is I think a split in the Labour party will become highly likely and he will lose many of the new votes he gained a couple of weeks ago.

Except only 6% of Labour voters considered Brexit their #1 issue, according to Survation.

The converts, who switched from the Conservatives to Labour over the EU, will probably not switch back. I'm not sure why they thought the Conservatives were a pro-EU party previously, but people deceive themselves. Two days after the EU vote, I was at a gathering of very rich people in Arkley who were all ranting and raving about it. I thought they'd get over it, but they didn't, and Theresa Villiers' majority was slashed.

The Conservatives have killed their reputation for rationality with non-zealots by aiming to be the party of Brexit. Labour's trimming on the subject of Brexit won't improve the Conservatives' reputation on that front.

But, such people ought to have got the hint that the Conservatives weren't exactly fond of the EU. Maybe they thought it was just posturing, and suddenly realised that it wasn't.

They understood how obsessed many Conservatives were on the subject. They trusted David Cameron. They don't trust the current motley crew. It's hard to imagine how any Conservative now could win back their trust to act rationally.

Benpointer

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ugh, what a muppet Simon Kelner is

https://twitter.com/theipaper/status/880536886426484737

Think he meant to write 'enablers of humanity' but his iPhone predictive text caught him out?

williamglenn

An interesting contrast with May's 'citizens of nowhere' divisiveness. I like the phrase 'asymmetric demobilisation' to describe Merkel's strategy.

https://twitter.com/theeconomist/status/880503796341907459

foxinsoxuk

rcs1000 said:

I'm still struggling with the idea that anyone who loves music can hate Radiohead.

Listen to this
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LCJblaUkkfc

Music to eat Hawaiian Pizza by...

isam

tyson said:

isam said:

tyson said:

isam said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Driver arrested after trying to drive into crowd of people outside Paris mosque

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/29/car-drives-crowd-people-outside-french-mosque/

The price we pay for the multicultural experiment is too high

And seeing that migration is as natural to human beings as procreating, eating or sleeping you tell me Isam what the hell we are supposed to do about migration? Ban it? Only allow whites to migrate to where they want? Only allow people with money to move to where they want? Only allow Christians to migrate?

Control it

Control migration is simply a smokescreen to stopping people of colour moving from poorer to richer countries.

No-one gives a shit about tons of rich white folk living between countries.

UKIP attack the establishment elite. There is nothing more egalitarian than the poorest in the world trying to move to improve their lives.

Having lots of different religions that don't integrate with each other arrive in a country too quickly is a recipe for disaster. If they happen to be of a different race it seems to make things more difficult. I am not saying, and have never said, that white Christianity is any better or worse than non white religion, just pointing out that when too many of each side are too close, too soon... KABOOM!

Benpointer

isam said:

Benpointer said:

tyson said:

isam said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Driver arrested after trying to drive into crowd of people outside Paris mosque

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/29/car-drives-crowd-people-outside-french-mosque/

The price we pay for the multicultural experiment is too high

And seeing that migration is as natural to human beings as procreating, eating or sleeping you tell me Isam what the hell we are supposed to do about migration? Ban it? Only allow whites to migrate to where they want? Only allow people with money to move to where they want? Only allow Christians to migrate?

+1

And in what sense is multiculturalism an 'experiment'? - it's just an inevitable consequence of technology allowing people to move and communicate across distances more easily/rapidly. No one said 'why don't we try this out and see if it works'. (And it's great and life-enriching btw)

All those backward Islamic republics that don't allow it.. pfft how you must hate them

Not hate - pity them.

tyson

TheScreamingEagles said:

tyson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Honestly can anyone name a decent Radiohead track after Karma Police?

I feel like I need to do a Radiohead themed thread in the next fortnight.

Thom Yorke, the Jeremy Corbyn of the musical world.

Everything they have done since OK Computer is elevated.

I'm thankful I was too old for Radiohead....my youth was misspent with New Order, the Cure and the Smiths and the like. If Radiohead had been around then I would have become completely obsessed.

New Order, alongside Queen, and The Rolling Stones were the bands that made me fall in love with music.

I'm seeing Hooky in Florence next week....he's doing the entire Substance (New Order and Joy Division) albums...a 3 hour feast.

I love New Order....but Radiohead are mesmerising and brilliant and inventive and innovative and quite simply one of the best bands the world has ever seen...the Beachboys, the Beatles and Radiohead....and then you have the rest.....

isam

Benpointer said:

isam said:

Benpointer said:

tyson said:

isam said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Driver arrested after trying to drive into crowd of people outside Paris mosque

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/29/car-drives-crowd-people-outside-french-mosque/

The price we pay for the multicultural experiment is too high

And seeing that migration is as natural to human beings as procreating, eating or sleeping you tell me Isam what the hell we are supposed to do about migration? Ban it? Only allow whites to migrate to where they want? Only allow people with money to move to where they want? Only allow Christians to migrate?

+1

And in what sense is multiculturalism an 'experiment'? - it's just an inevitable consequence of technology allowing people to move and communicate across distances more easily/rapidly. No one said 'why don't we try this out and see if it works'. (And it's great and life-enriching btw)

All those backward Islamic republics that don't allow it.. pfft how you must hate them

Not hate - pity them.

I am sure the feeling is mutual

Benpointer

Sean_F said:

tyson said:

isam said:

tyson said:

isam said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Driver arrested after trying to drive into crowd of people outside Paris mosque

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/29/car-drives-crowd-people-outside-french-mosque/

The price we pay for the multicultural experiment is too high

And seeing that migration is as natural to human beings as procreating, eating or sleeping you tell me Isam what the hell we are supposed to do about migration? Ban it? Only allow whites to migrate to where they want? Only allow people with money to move to where they want? Only allow Christians to migrate?

Control it

Control migration is simply a smokescreen to stopping people of colour moving from poorer to richer countries.

No-one gives a shit about tons of rich white folk living between countries.

UKIP attack the establishment elite. There is nothing more egalitarian than the poorest in the world trying to move to improve their lives.

Your point being?

... well made by your response, I would guess!

foxinsoxuk

isam said:

Benpointer said:

tyson said:

isam said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Driver arrested after trying to drive into crowd of people outside Paris mosque

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/29/car-drives-crowd-people-outside-french-mosque/

The price we pay for the multicultural experiment is too high

And seeing that migration is as natural to human beings as procreating, eating or sleeping you tell me Isam what the hell we are supposed to do about migration? Ban it? Only allow whites to migrate to where they want? Only allow people with money to move to where they want? Only allow Christians to migrate?

+1

And in what sense is multiculturalism an 'experiment'? - it's just an inevitable consequence of technology allowing people to move and communicate across distances more easily/rapidly. No one said 'why don't we try this out and see if it works'. (And it's great and life-enriching btw)

All those backward Islamic republics that don't allow it.. pfft how you must hate them

They are getting multiculturalism via the web, movies and TV. It is one of the major drivers of the Islamist backlash. A higher percentage of Saudis than Americans describe themselves as atheists, despite it being illegal in KSA.

tyson

NickPalmer said:

Radiohead said:

rcs1000 said:

I'm still struggling with the idea that anyone who loves music can hate Radiohead.

Preach!!!

You mean the warm-up group for Jeremy Corbyn?

Naughty

isam

foxinsoxuk said:

isam said:

Benpointer said:

tyson said:

isam said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Driver arrested after trying to drive into crowd of people outside Paris mosque

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/29/car-drives-crowd-people-outside-french-mosque/

The price we pay for the multicultural experiment is too high

And seeing that migration is as natural to human beings as procreating, eating or sleeping you tell me Isam what the hell we are supposed to do about migration? Ban it? Only allow whites to migrate to where they want? Only allow people with money to move to where they want? Only allow Christians to migrate?

+1

And in what sense is multiculturalism an 'experiment'? - it's just an inevitable consequence of technology allowing people to move and communicate across distances more easily/rapidly. No one said 'why don't we try this out and see if it works'. (And it's great and life-enriching btw)

All those backward Islamic republics that don't allow it.. pfft how you must hate them

They are getting multiculturalism via the web, movies and TV. It is one of the major drivers of the Islamist backlash. A higher percentage of Saudis than Americans describe themselves as atheists, despite it being illegal in KSA.

Probably a difference between religious apathy amongst citizens and a new firmly held religion by newcomers

tyson

I love @BenPointer....what a wonderful and compassionate addition to the pbCOM community.

Anyway, on that point of praise I am off for the night to listen to some more Radiohead....

RobD

tyson said:

I love @BenPointer....what a wonderful and compassionate addition to the pbCOM community.

Anyway, on that point of praise I am off for the night to listen to some more Radiohead....

Just wait until he starts using emojis.

Benpointer

RobD said:

tyson said:

I love @BenPointer....what a wonderful and compassionate addition to the pbCOM community.

Anyway, on that point of praise I am off for the night to listen to some more Radiohead....

Just wait until he starts using emojis.

@RobD - I wish I could work out how to! Any hints gratefully received

@tyson - you're too kind sir! Enjoy the music :-)

kle4

RobD said:

tyson said:

I love @BenPointer....what a wonderful and compassionate addition to the pbCOM community.

Anyway, on that point of praise I am off for the night to listen to some more Radiohead....

Just wait until he starts using emojis.

Happens to the best of us.

nunuone

isam said:

Jeremy wants Hard Brexit - where were the signs?

https://youtu.be/cZZcq25TTiQ

So after the euro crisis Jeremy changed his mind and campaigned for REMAIN??!!

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/880538686349246465

nunuone

foxinsoxuk said:

isam said:

Benpointer said:

tyson said:

isam said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Driver arrested after trying to drive into crowd of people outside Paris mosque

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/29/car-drives-crowd-people-outside-french-mosque/

The price we pay for the multicultural experiment is too high

And seeing that migration is as natural to human beings as procreating, eating or sleeping you tell me Isam what the hell we are supposed to do about migration? Ban it? Only allow whites to migrate to where they want? Only allow people with money to move to where they want? Only allow Christians to migrate?

+1

And in what sense is multiculturalism an 'experiment'? - it's just an inevitable consequence of technology allowing people to move and communicate across distances more easily/rapidly. No one said 'why don't we try this out and see if it works'. (And it's great and life-enriching btw)

All those backward Islamic republics that don't allow it.. pfft how you must hate them

They are getting multiculturalism via the web, movies and TV. It is one of the major drivers of the Islamist backlash. A higher percentage of Saudis than Americans describe themselves as atheists, despite it being illegal in KSA.

Really? Do you have a link please.

Although I remember a survey that said Americans would rather vote for Muslims and almost any other ideology than vote for an atheist! America intrigues.

nigel4england

tyson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tyson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Honestly can anyone name a decent Radiohead track after Karma Police?

I feel like I need to do a Radiohead themed thread in the next fortnight.

Thom Yorke, the Jeremy Corbyn of the musical world.

Everything they have done since OK Computer is elevated.

I'm thankful I was too old for Radiohead....my youth was misspent with New Order, the Cure and the Smiths and the like. If Radiohead had been around then I would have become completely obsessed.

New Order, alongside Queen, and The Rolling Stones were the bands that made me fall in love with music.

I'm seeing Hooky in Florence next week....he's doing the entire Substance (New Order and Joy Division) albums...a 3 hour feast.

I love New Order....but Radiohead are mesmerising and brilliant and inventive and innovative and quite simply one of the best bands the world has ever seen...the Beachboys, the Beatles and Radiohead....and then you have the rest.....

Queen are truly dreadful, with the obvious exception of Bohemian Rhapsody and a nod to Seven Seas of Rye the rest is utter dross. Radio Gaga, Fat Bottomed Girls, total rubbish.

Radiohead are classic music for the modern ages, in the same way Pink Floyd were and perhaps Elbow are too.

I do like the Smiths though, never been a great Bestles fan, (ironic that their best song was not written by Lennon & McCartney). Beach Boys are genius, same as Van Morrison and Dylan, best live act ever is Springsteen.

All in my humble opinion of course.

kle4

nunuone said:

isam said:

Jeremy wants Hard Brexit - where were the signs?

https://youtu.be/cZZcq25TTiQ

So after the euro crisis Jeremy changed his mind and campaigned for REMAIN??!!

The pull of partisan politics is strong all over.

Scott_P

@iankatz1000: .@nicholaswatt says many Labour remainers furious with @ChukaUmunna for tabling "vanity amendment" to Queen's Speech #Newsnight

Danny565

OllyT said:

Danny565 said:

OllyT said:

Benpointer said:

Ave_it said:

Third!

Like LAB in #GE2022

Who's gonna come 2nd in 2022 then?

And who 1st, given the Tories will deffo be behind Labour :-)?

Of all the Labour MPs we had to choose a leader that is one of the handful of anti-EU MPs and at such a critical time.

As it dawns on people how pro-Brexit he really is I think a split in the Labour party will become highly likely and he will lose many of the new votes he gained a couple of weeks ago.

Except only 6% of Labour voters considered Brexit their #1 issue, according to Survation.

I thought it had been concluded that after controlling for other factors that Labour did better the more remain the seat. His voting demographic is certainly very pro-remain and he certainly soft-pedalled his views during the GE and pretended to be a remainer during the referendum - man of principle my arse. I've had it with him and I suspect I will not be the only one.

Correlation does not equal causation. The characteristics of a lot of Remain voters (younger, more urban, more educated, etc.) are also the characteristics that increasingly make up the voter bases of centre-left parties all over the world, including places where the EU isn't an issue (most obviously the US).

Please feel free to find me one person who did a lot of canvassing for Labour this election who said Brexit was one of the main factors for pushing voters towards them, except for perhaps in a few London seats. As I said earlier, in my seat [which according to the Chris Hanretty estimates was more Remain than most of northern England], very few people said they were voting Labour on the basis of stopping or 'softening' Brexit, and just one person that I can remember even used the term "Single Market" at all.

nunuone

https://mobile.twitter.com/BBCNews/status/880544177217560577/photo/1

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/skynews/status/880545487291592704

Sunil_Prasannan

TheScreamingEagles said:

tyson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Honestly can anyone name a decent Radiohead track after Karma Police?

I feel like I need to do a Radiohead themed thread in the next fortnight.

Thom Yorke, the Jeremy Corbyn of the musical world.

Everything they have done since OK Computer is elevated.

I'm thankful I was too old for Radiohead....my youth was misspent with New Order, the Cure and the Smiths and the like. If Radiohead had been around then I would have become completely obsessed.

New Order, alongside Queen, and The Rolling Stones were the bands that made me fall in love with music.

Depeche Mode, Queen and New Order for me

kle4

nunuone said:

https://mobile.twitter.com/BBCNews/status/880544177217560577/photo/1

Given the heading above the the name of the paper is careful enough to include a question mark, I'm surprised the main headline does not have one.

Benpointer

kle4 said:

RobD said:

tyson said:

I love @BenPointer....what a wonderful and compassionate addition to the pbCOM community.

Anyway, on that point of praise I am off for the night to listen to some more Radiohead....

Just wait until he starts using emojis.

Happens to the best of us.

Got it!

nigel4england

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tyson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Honestly can anyone name a decent Radiohead track after Karma Police?

I feel like I need to do a Radiohead themed thread in the next fortnight.

Thom Yorke, the Jeremy Corbyn of the musical world.

Everything they have done since OK Computer is elevated.

I'm thankful I was too old for Radiohead....my youth was misspent with New Order, the Cure and the Smiths and the like. If Radiohead had been around then I would have become completely obsessed.

New Order, alongside Queen, and The Rolling Stones were the bands that made me fall in love with music.

Depeche Mode, Queen and New Order for me

Queen, ugh!

Anyone on here a Steely Dan fan?

Ishmael_Z

nigel4england said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tyson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Honestly can anyone name a decent Radiohead track after Karma Police?

I feel like I need to do a Radiohead themed thread in the next fortnight.

Thom Yorke, the Jeremy Corbyn of the musical world.

Everything they have done since OK Computer is elevated.

I'm thankful I was too old for Radiohead....my youth was misspent with New Order, the Cure and the Smiths and the like. If Radiohead had been around then I would have become completely obsessed.

New Order, alongside Queen, and The Rolling Stones were the bands that made me fall in love with music.

Depeche Mode, Queen and New Order for me

Queen, ugh!

Anyone on here a Steely Dan fan?

Yes.

But I struggle to see how you can like SD and not like Queen.

nunuone

https://mobile.twitter.com/rolandmcs/status/880468954820562944

foxinsoxuk

nunuone said:

foxinsoxuk said:

isam said:

Benpointer said:

tyson said:

isam said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Driver arrested after trying to drive into crowd of people outside Paris mosque

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/29/car-drives-crowd-people-outside-french-mosque/

The price we pay for the multicultural experiment is too high

And seeing that migration is as natural to human beings as procreating, eating or sleeping you tell me Isam what the hell we are supposed to do about migration? Ban it? Only allow whites to migrate to where they want? Only allow people with money to move to where they want? Only allow Christians to migrate?

+1

And in what sense is multiculturalism an 'experiment'? - it's just an inevitable consequence of technology allowing people to move and communicate across distances more easily/rapidly. No one said 'why don't we try this out and see if it works'. (And it's great and life-enriching btw)

All those backward Islamic republics that don't allow it.. pfft how you must hate them

They are getting multiculturalism via the web, movies and TV. It is one of the major drivers of the Islamist backlash. A higher percentage of Saudis than Americans describe themselves as atheists, despite it being illegal in KSA.

Really? Do you have a link please.

Although I remember a survey that said Americans would rather vote for Muslims and almost any other ideology than vote for an atheist! America intrigues.

http://nypost.com/2016/11/26/atheist-muslims-could-be-the-key-to-defeating-islamic-terror/

nunuone

kle4 said:

nunuone said:

https://mobile.twitter.com/BBCNews/status/880544177217560577/photo/1

Given the heading above the the name of the paper is careful enough to include a question mark, I'm surprised the main headline does not have one.

It is very striking nonetheless. Will help them sell, was the calculation.