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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Vince Cable looks set to become the first Strictly contestant

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  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    The PB Quiz is to guess the identity of the lady on the Times front page, with only her right arm in shot on that Tweet.

    Gina Miller
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I think Hammond is just muddying the waters to try and destabilize May even more...

    This is between Davis and Barnier and I'm confident they'll reach a sensible settlement if the like's of Hammond and Boris aren't allowed to stir things up too much.

    And of course lets not forget the extreme voices in the EU as well...
    But the Leavers assured us that wouldn't be a problem.

    BMW and Mercedes would force Frau Merkel to give us a good deal was the spin.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345

    Scott_P said:
    Yet again makes my point that the government haven't got a sodding clue what they are doing, and are just shambling around while Brussels runs rings around them, to the amusement of the rest of the world. How we ended up with Toxic Tess and the Killer Clowns Boris and Davis handling this, I have no idea. Where's Foxy? Has someone shot him?
    No, Liam's still alive:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/24/liam-fox-interview-country-made-views-clear-part-dont-people/

    He's beaming a lot surrounded by his art collection, but still seems to be fighting the EU referendum a little bit much to my mind. Come on, Liam - put that triumph behind you. You won. Now roll up your sleeves and start securing us those trade deals!
    Chortle. The most ineffective Secretary of State since Alan Clark?
    And what was Alan Clark Secretary of State for?
    He wasn't. He was junior minister at various departments.
    Indeed it was my cockup to posthumously promote him in the OP. Apologies. Although how he rose to the dizzy heights of minister remains something of a mystery.
    He was a fantastic Minister of State for Defence Procurement.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,854

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I think Hammond is just muddying the waters to try and destabilize May even more...

    This is between Davis and Barnier and I'm confident they'll reach a sensible settlement if the like's of Hammond and Boris aren't allowed to stir things up too much.

    And of course lets not forget the extreme voices in the EU as well...
    But the Leavers assured us that wouldn't be a problem.

    BMW and Mercedes would force Frau Merkel to give us a good deal was the spin.
    As soon as the German elections are out of the way she'll be on the first plane to London with a trade deal ready to sign...
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928

    Bob a job

    'In all fairness G, your wisdom about the Labour Party could be written on the back of one of Uncle Vince's cruelly privatised postage stamps '

    Believe me I have lived through all kinds of labour parties and remember Kinnock saving them from the hard left only for the hard left to arise through Corbyn. I remember the refuse in the streets and the dead lyjng unburied. I also voted for Tony twice - so do not patronise me

    I was only pulling your leg, it might have come across harsher than it was intended (which was not harsh at all). Sorry if so.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,838

    Hammond needs to be fired. Everyone else in Government is on the same page - he is just angling for the leadership by abandoning his so-called Eurosceptic principles to curry favour with the Soft Brexit crowd. His behaviour is entirely self-serving and May would look strong if she kicked him out - I doubt that many of his cabinet colleagues would come to his rescue. The reality is that the only people who support him as replacement PM are remainers who would never vote Conservative anyway.

    Scott_P said:
    Yeah, go ahead and fire him, and the Government will fall in no time at all. Hammond is working for British business's interests. Not arcane nostalgia and flag worship. Sacking him will send a disastrous message.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I think Hammond is just muddying the waters to try and destabilize May even more...

    This is between Davis and Barnier and I'm confident they'll reach a sensible settlement if the like's of Hammond and Boris aren't allowed to stir things up too much.

    And of course lets not forget the extreme voices in the EU as well...
    But the Leavers assured us that wouldn't be a problem.

    BMW and Mercedes would force Frau Merkel to give us a good deal was the spin.
    As soon as the German elections are out of the way she'll be on the first plane to London with a trade deal ready to sign...
    Here's a tweet that's not aged well.

    https://twitter.com/DavidDavisMP/status/735770073822961664
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682

    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    LOL at the idea that Vince Cable is a "leftie" or "Labour by another means". Are we talking about the person who even back in 2009 was talking up the necessity of "savage" spending cuts, who was the main face of the tuition fees rise, who privatised the Royal Mail, and who generally didn't raise much objection to being in government with the Tories? If anything, I would say the biggest argument against him being leader is precisely that he would be distrusted by the left-liberal voters in Cambridge and the like who are still very negative towards the Coalition.

    Even so, if I was a LibDem member I would still probably think him the best option -- with the situation the party is in, they really need someone who has something of a public profile to even get noticed, even when that profile isn't wholly positive. They can't afford to take a punt on some new MP who might theoretically have broader appeal to their pre-Coalition voters (if there are any MPs who meet that criteria), they need to go with someone who the public already know just to get back into the game.

    Cable was a Labour councillor and parliamentary candidate before he joined the SDP, he is also a staunch Europhile and social democrat (note not socialist)
    He was a Labour councillor in the 1970s, but I rather suspect voters may think his policies and actions in 2010-15 are rather more relevant.
    Don't forget Labour won about a third of 2015 LDs in 2017, Cable could win them back, after all they voted for Clegg even if they did not vote for Farron
    Cable would struggle to keep my vote, and I am a party member!
    Well there are always exceptions but those who would vote for Clegg and Farron but not Cable are a very small minority indeed
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    TSE wins the quiz. It's the lovely Miranda Kerr, who has become embroiled in some sort of stolen diamonds plot.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    edited June 2017

    Hammond needs to be fired. Everyone else in Government is on the same page - he is just angling for the leadership by abandoning his so-called Eurosceptic principles to curry favour with the Soft Brexit crowd. His behaviour is entirely self-serving and May would look strong if she kicked him out - I doubt that many of his cabinet colleagues would come to his rescue. The reality is that the only people who support him as replacement PM are remainers who would never vote Conservative anyway.

    Scott_P said:
    Yeah, go ahead and fire him, and the Government will fall in no time at all. Hammond is working for British business's interests. Not arcane nostalgia and flag worship. Sacking him will send a disastrous message.
    May could not now sack Hammond even if she wanted to, he is probably the most powerful man in government at the moment
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,838

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I think Hammond is just muddying the waters to try and destabilize May even more...

    This is between Davis and Barnier and I'm confident they'll reach a sensible settlement if the like's of Hammond and Boris aren't allowed to stir things up too much.

    And of course lets not forget the extreme voices in the EU as well...
    But the Leavers assured us that wouldn't be a problem.

    BMW and Mercedes would force Frau Merkel to give us a good deal was the spin.
    As soon as the German elections are out of the way she'll be on the first plane to London with a trade deal ready to sign...
    Here's a tweet that's not aged well.

    https://twitter.com/DavidDavisMP/status/735770073822961664
    The old ones are still the best.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,106

    Bob a job

    'In all fairness G, your wisdom about the Labour Party could be written on the back of one of Uncle Vince's cruelly privatised postage stamps '

    Believe me I have lived through all kinds of labour parties and remember Kinnock saving them from the hard left only for the hard left to arise through Corbyn. I remember the refuse in the streets and the dead lyjng unburied. I also voted for Tony twice - so do not patronise me
    I was only pulling your leg, it might have come across harsher than it was intended (which was not harsh at all). Sorry if so.

    That's fair enough - appreciated
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I think Hammond is just muddying the waters to try and destabilize May even more...

    This is between Davis and Barnier and I'm confident they'll reach a sensible settlement if the like's of Hammond and Boris aren't allowed to stir things up too much.

    And of course lets not forget the extreme voices in the EU as well...
    But the Leavers assured us that wouldn't be a problem.

    BMW and Mercedes would force Frau Merkel to give us a good deal was the spin.
    As soon as the German elections are out of the way she'll be on the first plane to London with a trade deal ready to sign...
    Here's a tweet that's not aged well.

    https://twitter.com/DavidDavisMP/status/735770073822961664
    The old ones are still the best.
    And with the suggestions that David Davis is set to introduce a de facto ID card, he's a bit of a hypocritical git
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,288

    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    LOL at the idea that Vince Cable is a "leftie" or "Labour by another means". Are we talking about the person who even back in 2009 was talking up the necessity of "savage" spending cuts, who was the main face of the tuition fees rise, who privatised the Royal Mail, and who generally didn't raise much objection to being in government with the Tories? If anything, I would say the biggest argument against him being leader is precisely that he would be distrusted by the left-liberal voters in Cambridge and the like who are still very negative towards the Coalition.

    Even so, if I was a LibDem member I would still probably think him the best option -- with the situation the party is in, they really need someone who has something of a public profile to even get noticed, even when that profile isn't wholly positive. They can't afford to take a punt on some new MP who might theoretically have broader appeal to their pre-Coalition voters (if there are any MPs who meet that criteria), they need to go with someone who the public already know just to get back into the game.

    Cable was a Labour councillor and parliamentary candidate before he joined the SDP, he is also a staunch Europhile and social democrat (note not socialist)
    He was a Labour councillor in the 1970s, but I rather suspect voters may think his policies and actions in 2010-15 are rather more relevant.
    Don't forget Labour won about a third of 2015 LDs in 2017, Cable could win them back, after all they voted for Clegg even if they did not vote for Farron
    Cable would struggle to keep my vote, and I am a party member!
    +1 on both counts.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I think Hammond is just muddying the waters to try and destabilize May even more...

    This is between Davis and Barnier and I'm confident they'll reach a sensible settlement if the like's of Hammond and Boris aren't allowed to stir things up too much.

    And of course lets not forget the extreme voices in the EU as well...
    But the Leavers assured us that wouldn't be a problem.

    BMW and Mercedes would force Frau Merkel to give us a good deal was the spin.
    As soon as the German elections are out of the way she'll be on the first plane to London with a trade deal ready to sign...
    Here's a tweet that's not aged well.

    https://twitter.com/DavidDavisMP/status/735770073822961664
    The old ones are still the best.
    And with the suggestions that David Davis is set to introduce a de facto ID card, he's a bit of a hypocritical git
    I don't think he was opposed to the government storing names of peoples with visas and work permits on a database though, was hie?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,854

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I think Hammond is just muddying the waters to try and destabilize May even more...

    This is between Davis and Barnier and I'm confident they'll reach a sensible settlement if the like's of Hammond and Boris aren't allowed to stir things up too much.

    And of course lets not forget the extreme voices in the EU as well...
    But the Leavers assured us that wouldn't be a problem.

    BMW and Mercedes would force Frau Merkel to give us a good deal was the spin.
    As soon as the German elections are out of the way she'll be on the first plane to London with a trade deal ready to sign...
    Here's a tweet that's not aged well.

    https://twitter.com/DavidDavisMP/status/735770073822961664
    The old ones are still the best.
    And with the suggestions that David Davis is set to introduce a de facto ID card, he's a bit of a hypocritical git
    Surely he should test the opinion of the people in Haltemprice and Howden on such an issue?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,106
    HYUFD said:

    Hammond needs to be fired. Everyone else in Government is on the same page - he is just angling for the leadership by abandoning his so-called Eurosceptic principles to curry favour with the Soft Brexit crowd. His behaviour is entirely self-serving and May would look strong if she kicked him out - I doubt that many of his cabinet colleagues would come to his rescue. The reality is that the only people who support him as replacement PM are remainers who would never vote Conservative anyway.

    Scott_P said:
    Yeah, go ahead and fire him, and the Government will fall in no time at all. Hammond is working for British business's interests. Not arcane nostalgia and flag worship. Sacking him will send a disastrous message.
    May could not now sack Hammond even if she wanted to, he is probably the most powerful man in government at the moment
    According to Tom Newton Dunn on Sky paper review the lobby brief today indicated that Theresa favours Hammond's approach. If true that seems significant
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345
    RobD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I think Hammond is just muddying the waters to try and destabilize May even more...

    This is between Davis and Barnier and I'm confident they'll reach a sensible settlement if the like's of Hammond and Boris aren't allowed to stir things up too much.

    And of course lets not forget the extreme voices in the EU as well...
    But the Leavers assured us that wouldn't be a problem.

    BMW and Mercedes would force Frau Merkel to give us a good deal was the spin.
    As soon as the German elections are out of the way she'll be on the first plane to London with a trade deal ready to sign...
    Here's a tweet that's not aged well.

    https://twitter.com/DavidDavisMP/status/735770073822961664
    The old ones are still the best.
    And with the suggestions that David Davis is set to introduce a de facto ID card, he's a bit of a hypocritical git
    I don't think he was opposed to the government storing names of peoples with visas and work permits on a database though, was hie?
    If looks like an ID card, walks like an ID card, and quacks like an ID card...
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    edited June 2017
    Scott_P said:
    People are naive if they think any leader of the SNP, a party for which Scottish independence is their raison d'etre, is going to come out and say "we're going to put off holding a referendum indefinitely". Of course not; she is going to to talk in some vague way about a time not 2 years but not as much as 5 years hence, to keep her base happy while committing to nothing.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,106

    Scott_P said:
    People are naive if they think any leader of the SNP, a party for which Scottish independence is their raison d'etre, is going to come out and say "we're going to put off holding a referendum indefinitely". Of course not; she is going to to talk in some vague way about a time not 2 years but not as much as 5 years hence, to keep her base happy while committing to nothing.
    And in 2021 lose her majority and the end of Independence for a generation
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142

    RobD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I think Hammond is just muddying the waters to try and destabilize May even more...

    This is between Davis and Barnier and I'm confident they'll reach a sensible settlement if the like's of Hammond and Boris aren't allowed to stir things up too much.

    And of course lets not forget the extreme voices in the EU as well...
    But the Leavers assured us that wouldn't be a problem.

    BMW and Mercedes would force Frau Merkel to give us a good deal was the spin.
    As soon as the German elections are out of the way she'll be on the first plane to London with a trade deal ready to sign...
    Here's a tweet that's not aged well.

    https://twitter.com/DavidDavisMP/status/735770073822961664
    The old ones are still the best.
    And with the suggestions that David Davis is set to introduce a de facto ID card, he's a bit of a hypocritical git
    I don't think he was opposed to the government storing names of peoples with visas and work permits on a database though, was hie?
    If looks like an ID card, walks like an ID card, and quacks like an ID card...
    I thought it would have been a sticker in a passport.
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928

    HYUFD said:

    Hammond needs to be fired. Everyone else in Government is on the same page - he is just angling for the leadership by abandoning his so-called Eurosceptic principles to curry favour with the Soft Brexit crowd. His behaviour is entirely self-serving and May would look strong if she kicked him out - I doubt that many of his cabinet colleagues would come to his rescue. The reality is that the only people who support him as replacement PM are remainers who would never vote Conservative anyway.

    Scott_P said:
    Yeah, go ahead and fire him, and the Government will fall in no time at all. Hammond is working for British business's interests. Not arcane nostalgia and flag worship. Sacking him will send a disastrous message.
    May could not now sack Hammond even if she wanted to, he is probably the most powerful man in government at the moment
    According to Tom Newton Dunn on Sky paper review the lobby brief today indicated that Theresa favours Hammond's approach. If true that seems significant
    That would be potentially a significant development. Good night.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345
    edited June 2017
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I think Hammond is just muddying the waters to try and destabilize May even more...

    This is between Davis and Barnier and I'm confident they'll reach a sensible settlement if the like's of Hammond and Boris aren't allowed to stir things up too much.

    And of course lets not forget the extreme voices in the EU as well...
    But the Leavers assured us that wouldn't be a problem.

    BMW and Mercedes would force Frau Merkel to give us a good deal was the spin.
    As soon as the German elections are out of the way she'll be on the first plane to London with a trade deal ready to sign...
    Here's a tweet that's not aged well.

    https://twitter.com/DavidDavisMP/status/735770073822961664
    The old ones are still the best.
    And with the suggestions that David Davis is set to introduce a de facto ID card, he's a bit of a hypocritical git
    I don't think he was opposed to the government storing names of peoples with visas and work permits on a database though, was hie?
    If looks like an ID card, walks like an ID card, and quacks like an ID card...
    I thought it would have been a sticker in a passport.
    We'll find out soon enough.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843

    HYUFD said:

    Hammond needs to be fired. Everyone else in Government is on the same page - he is just angling for the leadership by abandoning his so-called Eurosceptic principles to curry favour with the Soft Brexit crowd. His behaviour is entirely self-serving and May would look strong if she kicked him out - I doubt that many of his cabinet colleagues would come to his rescue. The reality is that the only people who support him as replacement PM are remainers who would never vote Conservative anyway.

    Scott_P said:
    Yeah, go ahead and fire him, and the Government will fall in no time at all. Hammond is working for British business's interests. Not arcane nostalgia and flag worship. Sacking him will send a disastrous message.
    May could not now sack Hammond even if she wanted to, he is probably the most powerful man in government at the moment
    According to Tom Newton Dunn on Sky paper review the lobby brief today indicated that Theresa favours Hammond's approach. If true that seems significant
    Well the whole diamond hard brexit approach always seemed more of a political calculation of where the public were at rather than born of convictions that it was the right approach - she was a remainer after all. Having seen that the public are not that way inclined, there's really no reason she would want to continue like that. She has also lost some of her inner circle now, and has no choice but to consult more with hammond, damien green etc - people who will be pushing a very different line than Timothy was.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345
    Perhaps we could house them in townships?

    Brexit Britain will be home to 3 million second-class European Union “settled citizens” who have been fingerprinted, registered and issued with a residence identity document and with no vote in general elections.

    That is the “between the lines” message of the British government’s offer on EU citizens’ rights after Brexit. The 3 million EU nationals will be joining the ranks of at least 1 million foreign nationals from outside the EU with “indefinite leave to remain” status who already form a largely invisible disenfranchised subclass in Britain.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/27/brexit-will-cement-disenfranchisement-of-millions-of-citizens
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    Who are the true believer hard brexiteers in cabinet?

    Boris will go where the wind is. My guess is Davis would prefer a hard brexit but is enough of a pragmatic to settle for a softer version, and especially as he is negotiating, will want a path of less resistance. Rudd and Hammond are softies. Fox is a diehard brexiteer right? but also quite unimportant it seems. Priti Patel the other hard brexiteer that springs to mind.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142
    edited June 2017

    Perhaps we could house them in townships?

    Brexit Britain will be home to 3 million second-class European Union “settled citizens” who have been fingerprinted, registered and issued with a residence identity document and with no vote in general elections.

    That is the “between the lines” message of the British government’s offer on EU citizens’ rights after Brexit. The 3 million EU nationals will be joining the ranks of at least 1 million foreign nationals from outside the EU with “indefinite leave to remain” status who already form a largely invisible disenfranchised subclass in Britain.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/27/brexit-will-cement-disenfranchisement-of-millions-of-citizens

    That's no difference from my experience in the US. I had to be fingerprinted at the embassy, I have a residency document that I have to keep, and I have no vote. Yet still tens/hundreds of thousands want to emigrate here every year.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682

    HYUFD said:

    Hammond needs to be fired. Everyone else in Government is on the same page - he is just angling for the leadership by abandoning his so-called Eurosceptic principles to curry favour with the Soft Brexit crowd. His behaviour is entirely self-serving and May would look strong if she kicked him out - I doubt that many of his cabinet colleagues would come to his rescue. The reality is that the only people who support him as replacement PM are remainers who would never vote Conservative anyway.

    Scott_P said:
    Yeah, go ahead and fire him, and the Government will fall in no time at all. Hammond is working for British business's interests. Not arcane nostalgia and flag worship. Sacking him will send a disastrous message.
    May could not now sack Hammond even if she wanted to, he is probably the most powerful man in government at the moment
    According to Tom Newton Dunn on Sky paper review the lobby brief today indicated that Theresa favours Hammond's approach. If true that seems significant
    Well the whole diamond hard brexit approach always seemed more of a political calculation of where the public were at rather than born of convictions that it was the right approach - she was a remainer after all. Having seen that the public are not that way inclined, there's really no reason she would want to continue like that. She has also lost some of her inner circle now, and has no choice but to consult more with hammond, damien green etc - people who will be pushing a very different line than Timothy was.
    Yes, if I were May I would say sod the northern working class Labour Leave voters who she tried so hard to appease, if they could not be bothered to vote for the hard Brexit she was proposing she may as well go for a softer Brexit which might win back some of the Remain voting Tories she lost in London and the south. Even if she does not lead the Tories at the next general election she could bow out having done a pragmatic and sane Brexit which protects the economy with some token free movement controls and then hand over to Hammond
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917

    Perhaps we could house them in townships?

    Brexit Britain will be home to 3 million second-class European Union “settled citizens” who have been fingerprinted, registered and issued with a residence identity document and with no vote in general elections.

    That is the “between the lines” message of the British government’s offer on EU citizens’ rights after Brexit. The 3 million EU nationals will be joining the ranks of at least 1 million foreign nationals from outside the EU with “indefinite leave to remain” status who already form a largely invisible disenfranchised subclass in Britain.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/27/brexit-will-cement-disenfranchisement-of-millions-of-citizens

    Guardian mewling.

    Could just send 'em home instead?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682

    Scott_P said:
    People are naive if they think any leader of the SNP, a party for which Scottish independence is their raison d'etre, is going to come out and say "we're going to put off holding a referendum indefinitely". Of course not; she is going to to talk in some vague way about a time not 2 years but not as much as 5 years hence, to keep her base happy while committing to nothing.
    And in 2021 lose her majority and the end of Independence for a generation
    Plus most of the remainder of her central belt seats to Corbyn
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345
    RobD said:

    Perhaps we could house them in townships?

    Brexit Britain will be home to 3 million second-class European Union “settled citizens” who have been fingerprinted, registered and issued with a residence identity document and with no vote in general elections.

    That is the “between the lines” message of the British government’s offer on EU citizens’ rights after Brexit. The 3 million EU nationals will be joining the ranks of at least 1 million foreign nationals from outside the EU with “indefinite leave to remain” status who already form a largely invisible disenfranchised subclass in Britain.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/27/brexit-will-cement-disenfranchisement-of-millions-of-citizens

    That's no difference from my experience in the US. I had to be fingerprinted at the embassy, I have a residency document that I have to keep, and I have no vote. Yet still tens/hundreds of thousands want to emigrate here every year.
    But you're planning on coming back to the UK in the short term, these are people who are planning to stay in the UK for the long term.

    So not strictly comparable?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    HYUFD said:

    Hammond needs to be fired. Everyone else in Government is on the same page - he is just angling for the leadership by abandoning his so-called Eurosceptic principles to curry favour with the Soft Brexit crowd. His behaviour is entirely self-serving and May would look strong if she kicked him out - I doubt that many of his cabinet colleagues would come to his rescue. The reality is that the only people who support him as replacement PM are remainers who would never vote Conservative anyway.

    Scott_P said:
    Yeah, go ahead and fire him, and the Government will fall in no time at all. Hammond is working for British business's interests. Not arcane nostalgia and flag worship. Sacking him will send a disastrous message.
    May could not now sack Hammond even if she wanted to, he is probably the most powerful man in government at the moment
    According to Tom Newton Dunn on Sky paper review the lobby brief today indicated that Theresa favours Hammond's approach. If true that seems significant
    Well the whole diamond hard brexit approach always seemed more of a political calculation of where the public were at rather than born of convictions that it was the right approach - she was a remainer after all. Having seen that the public are not that way inclined, there's really no reason she would want to continue like that. She has also lost some of her inner circle now, and has no choice but to consult more with hammond, damien green etc - people who will be pushing a very different line than Timothy was.
    The only way "no deal" could even be vaguely plausible would be if we were actively preparing for it, for example recruiting customs men, surveying areas for lorry parks near Dover, doing sums on tariffs etc. until then it is less credible than one of Baldricks cunning plans.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2017
    22 seats. That's the number of net gains Labour made from the Conservatives at the general election. In 1992, for example, the party made 39 net gains from the Conservatives. And in 1987, 17 net gains.

    http://www.election.demon.co.uk/changes.html
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142

    RobD said:

    Perhaps we could house them in townships?

    Brexit Britain will be home to 3 million second-class European Union “settled citizens” who have been fingerprinted, registered and issued with a residence identity document and with no vote in general elections.

    That is the “between the lines” message of the British government’s offer on EU citizens’ rights after Brexit. The 3 million EU nationals will be joining the ranks of at least 1 million foreign nationals from outside the EU with “indefinite leave to remain” status who already form a largely invisible disenfranchised subclass in Britain.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/27/brexit-will-cement-disenfranchisement-of-millions-of-citizens

    That's no difference from my experience in the US. I had to be fingerprinted at the embassy, I have a residency document that I have to keep, and I have no vote. Yet still tens/hundreds of thousands want to emigrate here every year.
    But you're planning on coming back to the UK in the short term, these are people who are planning to stay in the UK for the long term.

    So not strictly comparable?
    I'm on a dual-intent visa, I could apply for permanent residency if I wished. Even if I did that I would still have been fingerprinted, I'd have even more residency documents to carry around with me, and I still wouldn't get a vote.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited June 2017

    Perhaps we could house them in townships?

    Brexit Britain will be home to 3 million second-class European Union “settled citizens” who have been fingerprinted, registered and issued with a residence identity document and with no vote in general elections.

    That is the “between the lines” message of the British government’s offer on EU citizens’ rights after Brexit. The 3 million EU nationals will be joining the ranks of at least 1 million foreign nationals from outside the EU with “indefinite leave to remain” status who already form a largely invisible disenfranchised subclass in Britain.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/27/brexit-will-cement-disenfranchisement-of-millions-of-citizens

    Can they currently vote in General Elections then?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,106

    Who are the true believer hard brexiteers in cabinet?

    Boris will go where the wind is. My guess is Davis would prefer a hard brexit but is enough of a pragmatic to settle for a softer version, and especially as he is negotiating, will want a path of less resistance. Rudd and Hammond are softies. Fox is a diehard brexiteer right? but also quite unimportant it seems. Priti Patel the other hard brexiteer that springs to mind.

    The wider issue is that there must be a substantial majority of MP's seeking soft Brexit including the DUP and Scons and I see no prospect of the diehard's winning the argument. Even I am now between soft and even staying with some negotiation around immigration
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    AndyJS said:

    22 seats. That's the number of net gains Labour made from the Conservatives at the general election. In 1992, for example, the party made 39 net gains from the Conservatives. And in 1987, 17 net gains.

    http://www.election.demon.co.uk/changes.html

    Michael Howard made 24 net gains from Labour in 2005, so Corbyn actually did worse than Howard on a net gains basis
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142
    isam said:

    Perhaps we could house them in townships?

    Brexit Britain will be home to 3 million second-class European Union “settled citizens” who have been fingerprinted, registered and issued with a residence identity document and with no vote in general elections.

    That is the “between the lines” message of the British government’s offer on EU citizens’ rights after Brexit. The 3 million EU nationals will be joining the ranks of at least 1 million foreign nationals from outside the EU with “indefinite leave to remain” status who already form a largely invisible disenfranchised subclass in Britain.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/27/brexit-will-cement-disenfranchisement-of-millions-of-citizens

    Can they currently vote in General Elections then?
    No, lol.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited June 2017
    isam said:

    Perhaps we could house them in townships?

    Brexit Britain will be home to 3 million second-class European Union “settled citizens” who have been fingerprinted, registered and issued with a residence identity document and with no vote in general elections.

    That is the “between the lines” message of the British government’s offer on EU citizens’ rights after Brexit. The 3 million EU nationals will be joining the ranks of at least 1 million foreign nationals from outside the EU with “indefinite leave to remain” status who already form a largely invisible disenfranchised subclass in Britain.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/27/brexit-will-cement-disenfranchisement-of-millions-of-citizens

    Can they currently vote in General Elections then?
    local and European elections. Maltese, Irish and Cypriots can vote in GE, as can Indians and Pakistanis etc.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    22 seats. That's the number of net gains Labour made from the Conservatives at the general election. In 1992, for example, the party made 39 net gains from the Conservatives. And in 1987, 17 net gains.

    http://www.election.demon.co.uk/changes.html

    Michael Howard made 24 net gains from Labour in 2005, so Corbyn actually did worse than Howard on a net gains basis
    If net gains/losses are the metric of who does better or worse in elections, does that mean Corbyn did actually beat May after all?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    RobD said:

    isam said:

    Perhaps we could house them in townships?

    Brexit Britain will be home to 3 million second-class European Union “settled citizens” who have been fingerprinted, registered and issued with a residence identity document and with no vote in general elections.

    That is the “between the lines” message of the British government’s offer on EU citizens’ rights after Brexit. The 3 million EU nationals will be joining the ranks of at least 1 million foreign nationals from outside the EU with “indefinite leave to remain” status who already form a largely invisible disenfranchised subclass in Britain.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/27/brexit-will-cement-disenfranchisement-of-millions-of-citizens

    Can they currently vote in General Elections then?
    No, lol.
    We have become Apartheid era South Africa
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142

    isam said:

    Perhaps we could house them in townships?

    Brexit Britain will be home to 3 million second-class European Union “settled citizens” who have been fingerprinted, registered and issued with a residence identity document and with no vote in general elections.

    That is the “between the lines” message of the British government’s offer on EU citizens’ rights after Brexit. The 3 million EU nationals will be joining the ranks of at least 1 million foreign nationals from outside the EU with “indefinite leave to remain” status who already form a largely invisible disenfranchised subclass in Britain.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/27/brexit-will-cement-disenfranchisement-of-millions-of-citizens

    Can they currently vote in General Elections then?
    local and European elections. Maltese, Irish and Cypriots can vote in GE, as can Indians and Pakistanis etc.
    And I don't think that will change, apart from the lack of European elections - we'll all be spared the three day wait for them to count our votes.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Perhaps we could house them in townships?

    Brexit Britain will be home to 3 million second-class European Union “settled citizens” who have been fingerprinted, registered and issued with a residence identity document and with no vote in general elections.

    That is the “between the lines” message of the British government’s offer on EU citizens’ rights after Brexit. The 3 million EU nationals will be joining the ranks of at least 1 million foreign nationals from outside the EU with “indefinite leave to remain” status who already form a largely invisible disenfranchised subclass in Britain.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/27/brexit-will-cement-disenfranchisement-of-millions-of-citizens

    That's no difference from my experience in the US. I had to be fingerprinted at the embassy, I have a residency document that I have to keep, and I have no vote. Yet still tens/hundreds of thousands want to emigrate here every year.
    But you're planning on coming back to the UK in the short term, these are people who are planning to stay in the UK for the long term.

    So not strictly comparable?
    I'm on a dual-intent visa, I could apply for permanent residency if I wished. Even if I did that I would still have been fingerprinted, I'd have even more residency documents to carry around with me, and I still wouldn't get a vote.
    But there's a route for you to get the vote, unlike these poor EU souls, they'd be better off being Commonwealth citizens.

    No wonder one third of them are considering leaving the UK.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JohnJCrace: David Davis:'We're not going to introduce ID cards. We're going to introduce cards of identification'. Brilliant
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Who are the true believer hard brexiteers in cabinet?

    Boris will go where the wind is. My guess is Davis would prefer a hard brexit but is enough of a pragmatic to settle for a softer version, and especially as he is negotiating, will want a path of less resistance. Rudd and Hammond are softies. Fox is a diehard brexiteer right? but also quite unimportant it seems. Priti Patel the other hard brexiteer that springs to mind.

    The wider issue is that there must be a substantial majority of MP's seeking soft Brexit including the DUP and Scons and I see no prospect of the diehard's winning the argument. Even I am now between soft and even staying with some negotiation around immigration
    what parliament wants may well be beside the point. Will the EU agree a soft Brexit?

    This is not an ala carte menu.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142
    edited June 2017
    isam said:

    RobD said:

    isam said:

    Perhaps we could house them in townships?

    Brexit Britain will be home to 3 million second-class European Union “settled citizens” who have been fingerprinted, registered and issued with a residence identity document and with no vote in general elections.

    That is the “between the lines” message of the British government’s offer on EU citizens’ rights after Brexit. The 3 million EU nationals will be joining the ranks of at least 1 million foreign nationals from outside the EU with “indefinite leave to remain” status who already form a largely invisible disenfranchised subclass in Britain.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/27/brexit-will-cement-disenfranchisement-of-millions-of-citizens

    Can they currently vote in General Elections then?
    No, lol.
    We have become Apartheid era South Africa
    I don't think France or Germany allow non-nationals to vote in their general elections. I think the UK might be quite unusual in giving those rights to Commonwealth/Irish citizens.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Perhaps we could house them in townships?

    Brexit Britain will be home to 3 million second-class European Union “settled citizens” who have been fingerprinted, registered and issued with a residence identity document and with no vote in general elections.

    That is the “between the lines” message of the British government’s offer on EU citizens’ rights after Brexit. The 3 million EU nationals will be joining the ranks of at least 1 million foreign nationals from outside the EU with “indefinite leave to remain” status who already form a largely invisible disenfranchised subclass in Britain.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/27/brexit-will-cement-disenfranchisement-of-millions-of-citizens

    That's no difference from my experience in the US. I had to be fingerprinted at the embassy, I have a residency document that I have to keep, and I have no vote. Yet still tens/hundreds of thousands want to emigrate here every year.
    But you're planning on coming back to the UK in the short term, these are people who are planning to stay in the UK for the long term.

    So not strictly comparable?
    I'm on a dual-intent visa, I could apply for permanent residency if I wished. Even if I did that I would still have been fingerprinted, I'd have even more residency documents to carry around with me, and I still wouldn't get a vote.
    But there's a route for you to get the vote, unlike these poor EU souls, they'd be better off being Commonwealth citizens.

    No wonder one third of them are considering leaving the UK.
    The route for me to get a vote is to become a US citizen. There is no other mechanism. The EU citizens can become UK citizens if they wish. I don't think there is anything preventing them from doing that.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    RobD said:

    isam said:

    RobD said:

    isam said:

    Perhaps we could house them in townships?

    Brexit Britain will be home to 3 million second-class European Union “settled citizens” who have been fingerprinted, registered and issued with a residence identity document and with no vote in general elections.

    That is the “between the lines” message of the British government’s offer on EU citizens’ rights after Brexit. The 3 million EU nationals will be joining the ranks of at least 1 million foreign nationals from outside the EU with “indefinite leave to remain” status who already form a largely invisible disenfranchised subclass in Britain.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/27/brexit-will-cement-disenfranchisement-of-millions-of-citizens

    Can they currently vote in General Elections then?
    No, lol.
    We have become Apartheid era South Africa
    I don't think France or Germany allow non-nationals to vote in their general elections. I think the UK might be quite unusual in giving those rights to Commonwealth/Irish citizens.
    So what's the problem?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    22 seats. That's the number of net gains Labour made from the Conservatives at the general election. In 1992, for example, the party made 39 net gains from the Conservatives. And in 1987, 17 net gains.

    http://www.election.demon.co.uk/changes.html

    Michael Howard made 24 net gains from Labour in 2005, so Corbyn actually did worse than Howard on a net gains basis
    If net gains/losses are the metric of who does better or worse in elections, does that mean Corbyn did actually beat May after all?
    The main metric is 13.6 million votes vs 12.9 million. But net gains are interesting as well.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843

    Who are the true believer hard brexiteers in cabinet?

    Boris will go where the wind is. My guess is Davis would prefer a hard brexit but is enough of a pragmatic to settle for a softer version, and especially as he is negotiating, will want a path of less resistance. Rudd and Hammond are softies. Fox is a diehard brexiteer right? but also quite unimportant it seems. Priti Patel the other hard brexiteer that springs to mind.

    The wider issue is that there must be a substantial majority of MP's seeking soft Brexit including the DUP and Scons and I see no prospect of the diehard's winning the argument. Even I am now between soft and even staying with some negotiation around immigration
    Yes, as long as we get something on immigration (and we can do this within the single market, the FoM rules are not quite the same as in the EU proper), and leave the official structures of the EU, I think the public as a whole will largely be content to say "yes, this follows the instructions we gave in the referendum, and there is at least some change on immigration, even if I would personally want more" , and a deal would be approved. Leavers just want to leave and get it done, the vast majority of remainers just want a soft landing and to get it done - there is only a small minority on both sides that will go for the 'never surrender' approach.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142
    isam said:

    RobD said:

    isam said:

    RobD said:

    isam said:

    Perhaps we could house them in townships?

    Brexit Britain will be home to 3 million second-class European Union “settled citizens” who have been fingerprinted, registered and issued with a residence identity document and with no vote in general elections.

    That is the “between the lines” message of the British government’s offer on EU citizens’ rights after Brexit. The 3 million EU nationals will be joining the ranks of at least 1 million foreign nationals from outside the EU with “indefinite leave to remain” status who already form a largely invisible disenfranchised subclass in Britain.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/27/brexit-will-cement-disenfranchisement-of-millions-of-citizens

    Can they currently vote in General Elections then?
    No, lol.
    We have become Apartheid era South Africa
    I don't think France or Germany allow non-nationals to vote in their general elections. I think the UK might be quite unusual in giving those rights to Commonwealth/Irish citizens.
    So what's the problem?
    There is none, unless you have a problem with Guardian whining.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Perhaps we could house them in townships?

    Brexit Britain will be home to 3 million second-class European Union “settled citizens” who have been fingerprinted, registered and issued with a residence identity document and with no vote in general elections.

    That is the “between the lines” message of the British government’s offer on EU citizens’ rights after Brexit. The 3 million EU nationals will be joining the ranks of at least 1 million foreign nationals from outside the EU with “indefinite leave to remain” status who already form a largely invisible disenfranchised subclass in Britain.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/27/brexit-will-cement-disenfranchisement-of-millions-of-citizens

    That's no difference from my experience in the US. I had to be fingerprinted at the embassy, I have a residency document that I have to keep, and I have no vote. Yet still tens/hundreds of thousands want to emigrate here every year.
    But you're planning on coming back to the UK in the short term, these are people who are planning to stay in the UK for the long term.

    So not strictly comparable?
    I'm on a dual-intent visa, I could apply for permanent residency if I wished. Even if I did that I would still have been fingerprinted, I'd have even more residency documents to carry around with me, and I still wouldn't get a vote.
    But there's a route for you to get the vote, unlike these poor EU souls, they'd be better off being Commonwealth citizens.

    No wonder one third of them are considering leaving the UK.
    I was chatting to a Maltese friend earlier, who had never experienced hostility as an immigrant (she has been here over a decade) she has had quite a bit of it since over the last year.

    We have lost our Spanish nurses too. Shame.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,106

    Who are the true believer hard brexiteers in cabinet?

    Boris will go where the wind is. My guess is Davis would prefer a hard brexit but is enough of a pragmatic to settle for a softer version, and especially as he is negotiating, will want a path of less resistance. Rudd and Hammond are softies. Fox is a diehard brexiteer right? but also quite unimportant it seems. Priti Patel the other hard brexiteer that springs to mind.

    The wider issue is that there must be a substantial majority of MP's seeking soft Brexit including the DUP and Scons and I see no prospect of the diehard's winning the argument. Even I am now between soft and even staying with some negotiation around immigration
    what parliament wants may well be beside the point. Will the EU agree a soft Brexit?

    This is not an ala carte menu.
    Well if it does not the ball game changes to self harm for everyone. Notice German Manufactures issued a warning to Merkel over the weekend that they will not accept tariffs with the UK under any circumstances. And they won't be the only industry in the EU gathering together to demand free trade with the UK from Brussels. If the EU are seen to be threatening their jobs and prosperity over a political project they will not be able to contain the anger
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Perhaps we could house them in townships?

    Brexit Britain will be home to 3 million second-class European Union “settled citizens” who have been fingerprinted, registered and issued with a residence identity document and with no vote in general elections.

    That is the “between the lines” message of the British government’s offer on EU citizens’ rights after Brexit. The 3 million EU nationals will be joining the ranks of at least 1 million foreign nationals from outside the EU with “indefinite leave to remain” status who already form a largely invisible disenfranchised subclass in Britain.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/27/brexit-will-cement-disenfranchisement-of-millions-of-citizens

    That's no difference from my experience in the US. I had to be fingerprinted at the embassy, I have a residency document that I have to keep, and I have no vote. Yet still tens/hundreds of thousands want to emigrate here every year.
    But you're planning on coming back to the UK in the short term, these are people who are planning to stay in the UK for the long term.

    So not strictly comparable?
    I'm on a dual-intent visa, I could apply for permanent residency if I wished. Even if I did that I would still have been fingerprinted, I'd have even more residency documents to carry around with me, and I still wouldn't get a vote.
    But there's a route for you to get the vote, unlike these poor EU souls, they'd be better off being Commonwealth citizens.

    No wonder one third of them are considering leaving the UK.
    The route for me to get a vote is to become a US citizen. There is no other mechanism. The EU citizens can become UK citizens if they wish. I don't think there is anything preventing them from doing that.
    I'll pick this up with you tomorrow, I've really got to bed now, the joys of a meeting at 7.30am.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    AndyJS said:

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    22 seats. That's the number of net gains Labour made from the Conservatives at the general election. In 1992, for example, the party made 39 net gains from the Conservatives. And in 1987, 17 net gains.

    http://www.election.demon.co.uk/changes.html

    Michael Howard made 24 net gains from Labour in 2005, so Corbyn actually did worse than Howard on a net gains basis
    If net gains/losses are the metric of who does better or worse in elections, does that mean Corbyn did actually beat May after all?
    The main metric is 13.6 million votes vs 12.9 million. But net gains are interesting as well.
    Well, quite - and equally, on the same metric of votes, Corbyn did considerably better than Howard and Kinnock.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Scott_P said:

    @JohnJCrace: David Davis:'We're not going to introduce ID cards. We're going to introduce cards of identification'. Brilliant

    LOL that can't be real?!?
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843

    Who are the true believer hard brexiteers in cabinet?

    Boris will go where the wind is. My guess is Davis would prefer a hard brexit but is enough of a pragmatic to settle for a softer version, and especially as he is negotiating, will want a path of less resistance. Rudd and Hammond are softies. Fox is a diehard brexiteer right? but also quite unimportant it seems. Priti Patel the other hard brexiteer that springs to mind.

    The wider issue is that there must be a substantial majority of MP's seeking soft Brexit including the DUP and Scons and I see no prospect of the diehard's winning the argument. Even I am now between soft and even staying with some negotiation around immigration
    what parliament wants may well be beside the point. Will the EU agree a soft Brexit?

    This is not an ala carte menu.
    No, but we can make some changes on FoM within the single market while still keeping FoM largely intact. We can't cherry pick within the EU but we can make an off the shelf model work with at best a few tweaks. Now, the EU may well be so intent on punishing us that they go out of their way to sabotage even that, but I don't think so. The EU is more confident than it has been for a while - they are less worried about contagion from us than they were previously. They simply want us gone in the quietest way possible so they can forget about us and move on with the project.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited June 2017

    Who are the true believer hard brexiteers in cabinet?

    Boris will go where the wind is. My guess is Davis would prefer a hard brexit but is enough of a pragmatic to settle for a softer version, and especially as he is negotiating, will want a path of less resistance. Rudd and Hammond are softies. Fox is a diehard brexiteer right? but also quite unimportant it seems. Priti Patel the other hard brexiteer that springs to mind.

    The wider issue is that there must be a substantial majority of MP's seeking soft Brexit including the DUP and Scons and I see no prospect of the diehard's winning the argument. Even I am now between soft and even staying with some negotiation around immigration
    what parliament wants may well be beside the point. Will the EU agree a soft Brexit?

    This is not an ala carte menu.
    Well if it does not the ball game changes to self harm for everyone. Notice German Manufactures issued a warning to Merkel over the weekend that they will not accept tariffs with the UK under any circumstances. And they won't be the only industry in the EU gathering together to demand free trade with the UK from Brussels. If the EU are seen to be threatening their jobs and prosperity over a political project they will not be able to contain the anger
    They may not have the choice. It is not Merkels decision, but rather an EU one.

    Soft Brexit as a concept is a British construct. As Tusk said, there is either Brexit or no Brexit. No one on the other side discusses it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142
    Danny565 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @JohnJCrace: David Davis:'We're not going to introduce ID cards. We're going to introduce cards of identification'. Brilliant

    LOL that can't be real?!?
    I would have though it would have been a visa sticker as opposed to an ID card (there is no need for one, since every person applying should have a passport already).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    22 seats. That's the number of net gains Labour made from the Conservatives at the general election. In 1992, for example, the party made 39 net gains from the Conservatives. And in 1987, 17 net gains.

    http://www.election.demon.co.uk/changes.html

    Michael Howard made 24 net gains from Labour in 2005, so Corbyn actually did worse than Howard on a net gains basis
    If net gains/losses are the metric of who does better or worse in elections, does that mean Corbyn did actually beat May after all?
    No as May won over 60 more seats, I was just comparing Corbyn to Howard as losing opposition leaders who improved their party's performance but still lost. Indeed Blair beat Howard by 2.8%, May beat Corbyn by 2.35%, spot the difference? The difference being that Howard had the sense to stand down for someone more electable unlike Corbyn, who has instead done a Kinnock 1987 and decided to go for one more heave
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,106

    Who are the true believer hard brexiteers in cabinet?

    Boris will go where the wind is. My guess is Davis would prefer a hard brexit but is enough of a pragmatic to settle for a softer version, and especially as he is negotiating, will want a path of less resistance. Rudd and Hammond are softies. Fox is a diehard brexiteer right? but also quite unimportant it seems. Priti Patel the other hard brexiteer that springs to mind.

    The wider issue is that there must be a substantial majority of MP's seeking soft Brexit including the DUP and Scons and I see no prospect of the diehard's winning the argument. Even I am now between soft and even staying with some negotiation around immigration
    what parliament wants may well be beside the point. Will the EU agree a soft Brexit?

    This is not an ala carte menu.
    Well if it does not the ball game changes to self harm for everyone. Notice German Manufactures issued a warning to Merkel over the weekend that they will not accept tariffs with the UK under any circumstances. And they won't be the only industry in the EU gathering together to demand free trade with the UK from Brussels. If the EU are seen to be threatening their jobs and prosperity over a political project they will not be able to contain the anger
    They may not have the choice. It is not Merkels decision, but rather an EU one.

    Soft Brexit as a concept is a British construct. As Tusk said, there is either Brexit or no Brexit. No one on the other side discusses it.
    It will become a huge battle between EU trade organisations and Brussels. I would not dismiss Merkel so easily either. Lets see how she reacts after the German elections
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546

    Who are the true believer hard brexiteers in cabinet?

    Boris will go where the wind is. My guess is Davis would prefer a hard brexit but is enough of a pragmatic to settle for a softer version, and especially as he is negotiating, will want a path of less resistance. Rudd and Hammond are softies. Fox is a diehard brexiteer right? but also quite unimportant it seems. Priti Patel the other hard brexiteer that springs to mind.

    The wider issue is that there must be a substantial majority of MP's seeking soft Brexit including the DUP and Scons and I see no prospect of the diehard's winning the argument. Even I am now between soft and even staying with some negotiation around immigration
    what parliament wants may well be beside the point. Will the EU agree a soft Brexit?

    This is not an ala carte menu.
    Well if it does not the ball game changes to self harm for everyone. Notice German Manufactures issued a warning to Merkel over the weekend that they will not accept tariffs with the UK under any circumstances. And they won't be the only industry in the EU gathering together to demand free trade with the UK from Brussels. If the EU are seen to be threatening their jobs and prosperity over a political project they will not be able to contain the anger
    They may not have the choice. It is not Merkels decision, but rather an EU one.

    Soft Brexit as a concept is a British media construct. As Tusk said, there is either Brexit or no Brexit. No one on the other side discusses it.
    Fixed for you.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,405

    Who are the true believer hard brexiteers in cabinet?

    Boris will go where the wind is. My guess is Davis would prefer a hard brexit but is enough of a pragmatic to settle for a softer version, and especially as he is negotiating, will want a path of less resistance. Rudd and Hammond are softies. Fox is a diehard brexiteer right? but also quite unimportant it seems. Priti Patel the other hard brexiteer that springs to mind.

    The wider issue is that there must be a substantial majority of MP's seeking soft Brexit including the DUP and Scons and I see no prospect of the diehard's winning the argument. Even I am now between soft and even staying with some negotiation around immigration
    what parliament wants may well be beside the point. Will the EU agree a soft Brexit?

    This is not an ala carte menu.
    Well if it does not the ball game changes to self harm for everyone. Notice German Manufactures issued a warning to Merkel over the weekend that they will not accept tariffs with the UK under any circumstances. And they won't be the only industry in the EU gathering together to demand free trade with the UK from Brussels. If the EU are seen to be threatening their jobs and prosperity over a political project they will not be able to contain the anger
    They may not have the choice. It is not Merkels decision, but rather an EU one.

    Soft Brexit as a concept is a British construct. As Tusk said, there is either Brexit or no Brexit. No one on the other side discusses it.
    There is no reason to disbelieve them. For the EU it's a choice between the Single Market with full freedom of movement or what we call hard Brexit. If it's the former the present discussion about citizens' rights is moot because EU citizens would have automatic rights to be here.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    DUP to demand £460m in tax cuts to keep Theresa May in power after Brexit

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/27/dup-demand-460m-tax-cuts-keep-theresa-may-power-brexit/

    This is really positive. Why does it take a second party to remind the Conservatives that they should be the low tax choice?

    More of this!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @IainGrayMSP: So, it turns out FM statement was not in fact a response to scottish voters, but the launch of yet another SNP Indy campaign website.

    @dhothersall: No seriously, it's getting embarrassing now. https://twitter.com/ScotNational/status/879804346388631553
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Scott_P said:

    @JohnJCrace: David Davis:'We're not going to introduce ID cards. We're going to introduce cards of identification'. Brilliant

    Did he actually say that?

    I can't find a link.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    FF43 said:

    Who are the true believer hard brexiteers in cabinet?

    Boris will go where the wind is. My guess is Davis would prefer a hard brexit but is enough of a pragmatic to settle for a softer version, and especially as he is negotiating, will want a path of less resistance. Rudd and Hammond are softies. Fox is a diehard brexiteer right? but also quite unimportant it seems. Priti Patel the other hard brexiteer that springs to mind.

    The wider issue is that there must be a substantial majority of MP's seeking soft Brexit including the DUP and Scons and I see no prospect of the diehard's winning the argument. Even I am now between soft and even staying with some negotiation around immigration
    what parliament wants may well be beside the point. Will the EU agree a soft Brexit?

    This is not an ala carte menu.
    Well if it does not the ball game changes to self harm for everyone. Notice German Manufactures issued a warning to Merkel over the weekend that they will not accept tariffs with the UK under any circumstances. And they won't be the only industry in the EU gathering together to demand free trade with the UK from Brussels. If the EU are seen to be threatening their jobs and prosperity over a political project they will not be able to contain the anger
    They may not have the choice. It is not Merkels decision, but rather an EU one.

    Soft Brexit as a concept is a British construct. As Tusk said, there is either Brexit or no Brexit. No one on the other side discusses it.
    There is no reason to disbelieve them. For the EU it's a choice between the Single Market with full freedom of movement or what we call hard Brexit. If it's the former the present discussion about citizens' rights is moot because EU citizens would have automatic rights to be here.
    Yet the UK did not take up the transition controls most EU nations imposed on the accession countries in 2004 for 7 years, so some variant of that would not be incompatible with Single Market membership as it has already been done
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Who are the true believer hard brexiteers in cabinet?

    Boris will go where the wind is. My guess is Davis would prefer a hard brexit but is enough of a pragmatic to settle for a softer version, and especially as he is negotiating, will want a path of less resistance. Rudd and Hammond are softies. Fox is a diehard brexiteer right? but also quite unimportant it seems. Priti Patel the other hard brexiteer that springs to mind.

    The wider issue is that there must be a substantial majority of MP's seeking soft Brexit including the DUP and Scons and I see no prospect of the diehard's winning the argument. Even I am now between soft and even staying with some negotiation around immigration
    what parliament wants may well be beside the point. Will the EU agree a soft Brexit?

    This is not an ala carte menu.
    No, but we can make some changes on FoM within the single market while still keeping FoM largely intact. We can't cherry pick within the EU but we can make an off the shelf model work with at best a few tweaks. Now, the EU may well be so intent on punishing us that they go out of their way to sabotage even that, but I don't think so. The EU is more confident than it has been for a while - they are less worried about contagion from us than they were previously. They simply want us gone in the quietest way possible so they can forget about us and move on with the project.
    Good for them. That'll do nicely.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,854
    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Who are the true believer hard brexiteers in cabinet?

    Boris will go where the wind is. My guess is Davis would prefer a hard brexit but is enough of a pragmatic to settle for a softer version, and especially as he is negotiating, will want a path of less resistance. Rudd and Hammond are softies. Fox is a diehard brexiteer right? but also quite unimportant it seems. Priti Patel the other hard brexiteer that springs to mind.

    The wider issue is that there must be a substantial majority of MP's seeking soft Brexit including the DUP and Scons and I see no prospect of the diehard's winning the argument. Even I am now between soft and even staying with some negotiation around immigration
    what parliament wants may well be beside the point. Will the EU agree a soft Brexit?

    This is not an ala carte menu.
    Well if it does not the ball game changes to self harm for everyone. Notice German Manufactures issued a warning to Merkel over the weekend that they will not accept tariffs with the UK under any circumstances. And they won't be the only industry in the EU gathering together to demand free trade with the UK from Brussels. If the EU are seen to be threatening their jobs and prosperity over a political project they will not be able to contain the anger
    They may not have the choice. It is not Merkels decision, but rather an EU one.

    Soft Brexit as a concept is a British construct. As Tusk said, there is either Brexit or no Brexit. No one on the other side discusses it.
    There is no reason to disbelieve them. For the EU it's a choice between the Single Market with full freedom of movement or what we call hard Brexit. If it's the former the present discussion about citizens' rights is moot because EU citizens would have automatic rights to be here.
    Yet the UK did not take up the transition controls most EU nations imposed on the accession countries in 2004 for 7 years, so some variant of that would not be incompatible with Single Market membership as it has already been done
    A transition period cuts both ways and once it's over, it's over. The accession countries also had time to adjust before fully opening up their economies to competition from existing EU members.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Pong said:

    Scott_P said:

    @JohnJCrace: David Davis:'We're not going to introduce ID cards. We're going to introduce cards of identification'. Brilliant

    Did he actually say that?

    I can't find a link.
    Of course he didn't

    ""It is not an ID card," he said in the House of Commons.

    "We are talking about documentation to prove that people have the right to a job and the right to residence, but they will not have to carry that around all the time. It is not an ID card; it is rather like your birth certificate. It's not an ID card!"

    http://uk.businessinsider.com/eu-citizens-living-in-uk-will-need-identity-cards-after-brexit-2017-6
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    edited June 2017

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Who are the true believer hard brexiteers in cabinet?

    Boris will go where the wind is. My guess is Davis would prefer a hard brexit but is enough of a pragmatic to settle for a softer version, and especially as he is negotiating, will want a path of less resistance. Rudd and Hammond are softies. Fox is a diehard brexiteer right? but also quite unimportant it seems. Priti Patel the other hard brexiteer that springs to mind.

    The wider issue is that there must be a substantial majority of MP's seeking soft Brexit including the DUP and Scons and I see no prospect of the diehard's winning the argument. Even I am now between soft and even staying with some negotiation around immigration
    what parliament wants may well be beside the point. Will the EU agree a soft Brexit?

    This is not an ala carte menu.
    Well if it does not the ball game changes to self harm for everyone. Notice German Manufactures issued a warning to Merkel over the weekend tha
    They may not have the choice. It is not Merkels decision, but rather an EU one.

    Soft Brexit as a concept is a British construct. As Tusk said, there is either Brexit or no Brexit. No one on the other side discusses it.
    There .
    Yet the UK did not take up the transition controls most EU nations imposed on the accession countries in 2004 for 7 years, so some variant of that would not be incompatible with Single Market membership as it has already been done
    A transition period cuts both ways and once it's over, it's over. The accession countries also had time to adjust before fully opening up their economies to competition from existing EU members. .
    Well they may no longer be accession countries but legally it could be argued the UK has yet to 'cash in' the controls on Eastern European migration other EU nations have already imposed because of the decision of the last Labour government (against the wishes of the current incumbent Tory party), it would be difficult for Merkel and Macron etc to logically argue why the UK can not now impose for seven years similar controls to those their nations have already imposed. The controls could also only apply to free movement of people and workers which is the real concern in Britain, free movement of capital, goods and services to and from Eastern Europe could continue unchecked
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Pong said:

    Scott_P said:

    @JohnJCrace: David Davis:'We're not going to introduce ID cards. We're going to introduce cards of identification'. Brilliant

    Did he actually say that?

    I can't find a link.
    Indeed. All the 'net contains so far is a single tweet by a Guardian journalist and a smorgasbord of knobheads wading in underneath it.

    The quotes that Crace has put around the tweet seem to be completely made up. Coming from the Guardian this should not surprise us.

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,439
    GeoffM said:

    Pong said:

    Scott_P said:

    @JohnJCrace: David Davis:'We're not going to introduce ID cards. We're going to introduce cards of identification'. Brilliant

    Did he actually say that?

    I can't find a link.
    Indeed. All the 'net contains so far is a single tweet by a Guardian journalist and a smorgasbord of knobheads wading in underneath it.

    The quotes that Crace has put around the tweet seem to be completely made up. Coming from the Guardian this should not surprise us.

    #FakeNews #FakeTweets
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,229
    edited June 2017

    Perhaps we could house them in townships?

    Brexit Britain will be home to 3 million second-class European Union “settled citizens” who have been fingerprinted, registered and issued with a residence identity document and with no vote in general elections.

    That is the “between the lines” message of the British government’s offer on EU citizens’ rights after Brexit. The 3 million EU nationals will be joining the ranks of at least 1 million foreign nationals from outside the EU with “indefinite leave to remain” status who already form a largely invisible disenfranchised subclass in Britain.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/27/brexit-will-cement-disenfranchisement-of-millions-of-citizens

    That's true of most settled foreign citizens in most countries. In general, votes come with citizenship. If they want to enfranchise themselves they should become citizens.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,229

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Perhaps we could house them in townships?

    Brexit Britain will be home to 3 million second-class European Union “settled citizens” who have been fingerprinted, registered and issued with a residence identity document and with no vote in general elections.

    That is the “between the lines” message of the British government’s offer on EU citizens’ rights after Brexit. The 3 million EU nationals will be joining the ranks of at least 1 million foreign nationals from outside the EU with “indefinite leave to remain” status who already form a largely invisible disenfranchised subclass in Britain.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/27/brexit-will-cement-disenfranchisement-of-millions-of-citizens

    That's no difference from my experience in the US. I had to be fingerprinted at the embassy, I have a residency document that I have to keep, and I have no vote. Yet still tens/hundreds of thousands want to emigrate here every year.
    But you're planning on coming back to the UK in the short term, these are people who are planning to stay in the UK for the long term.

    So not strictly comparable?
    I'm on a dual-intent visa, I could apply for permanent residency if I wished. Even if I did that I would still have been fingerprinted, I'd have even more residency documents to carry around with me, and I still wouldn't get a vote.
    But there's a route for you to get the vote, unlike these poor EU souls
    Horlicks. After a year they can apply to become citizens - then they get the vote.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,229
    Settled status is not the same as citizenship – for example, holders of this status do not have a UK passport – but those with settled status and at least six years’ residence may apply for citizenship.

    The United Kingdom’s Exit from the European Union
    Safeguarding the Position of EU Citizens Living in the UK and UK Nationals Living in the EU
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,229
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/28/uk-support-is-rising-for-higher-taxes-to-fund-nhs-schools-and-police?CMP=twt_gu

    Up to a point, Lord Copper - I'd be interested to see if people thought higher taxes on them personally rather than in general (or on someone 'better off') were a good idea....
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,229
    The Swedish actor who played Mikael Blomkvist in The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo has died at 56:

    http://news.sky.com/story/the-girl-with-the-dragon-tattoo-actor-michael-nyqvist-dies-10929467
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    Why would it matter how old Cable is? 74 or 79? It matters not a jot, nor does it matter who, if anybody, may stand against him in the leadership election. The Lib Dems only have 12 MPs and are fanatically pro-EU (and therefore anti-democratic), and are a complete irrelevance.

    The only significant fact about the leadership of Tim Farron is that he was elected leader with the same number of votes as Michael Portillo got in 1997, and the enjoyable fun which I had once every few months over the last two years in asking my parents a quiz question of who the leader of the Liberal Democrats was - each time they had forgotten and didn't know.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,709

    Perhaps we could house them in townships?

    Brexit Britain will be home to 3 million second-class European Union “settled citizens” who have been fingerprinted, registered and issued with a residence identity document and with no vote in general elections.

    That is the “between the lines” message of the British government’s offer on EU citizens’ rights after Brexit. The 3 million EU nationals will be joining the ranks of at least 1 million foreign nationals from outside the EU with “indefinite leave to remain” status who already form a largely invisible disenfranchised subclass in Britain.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/27/brexit-will-cement-disenfranchisement-of-millions-of-citizens

    That's true of most settled foreign citizens in most countries. In general, votes come with citizenship. If they want to enfranchise themselves they should become citizens.
    I wonder what the electoral consequences of this will be. There must be a lot of people now getting citizenship who wouldn't have bothered if not for Brexit.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,229

    Perhaps we could house them in townships?

    Brexit Britain will be home to 3 million second-class European Union “settled citizens” who have been fingerprinted, registered and issued with a residence identity document and with no vote in general elections.

    That is the “between the lines” message of the British government’s offer on EU citizens’ rights after Brexit. The 3 million EU nationals will be joining the ranks of at least 1 million foreign nationals from outside the EU with “indefinite leave to remain” status who already form a largely invisible disenfranchised subclass in Britain.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/27/brexit-will-cement-disenfranchisement-of-millions-of-citizens

    That's true of most settled foreign citizens in most countries. In general, votes come with citizenship. If they want to enfranchise themselves they should become citizens.
    I wonder what the electoral consequences of this will be. There must be a lot of people now getting citizenship who wouldn't have bothered if not for Brexit.
    I suspect it will be Terrrrrrrible for the Tories......

    Except the citizens of Andorra, Austria, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Poland, Denmark, Latvia, Slovakia, Lithuania, Netherlands, Romania, Spain and Norway.....who will have to choose between citizenships, as their countries bar dual-citizenship and Germans who will have to get prior permission....

    http://dlgimmigration.com/united-states-citizenship/list-of-countries-that-allow-or-disallow-dual-citizenship/


  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,971
    This looks set to,be interesting,with the tight parliamentary arithmetic, and is probably not good for the Tories...
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40423052
    What might have looked an empty gesture pre-election takes on some political significance.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,766

    Perhaps we could house them in townships?

    Brexit Britain will be home to 3 million second-class European Union “settled citizens” who have been fingerprinted, registered and issued with a residence identity document and with no vote in general elections.

    That is the “between the lines” message of the British government’s offer on EU citizens’ rights after Brexit. The 3 million EU nationals will be joining the ranks of at least 1 million foreign nationals from outside the EU with “indefinite leave to remain” status who already form a largely invisible disenfranchised subclass in Britain.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/27/brexit-will-cement-disenfranchisement-of-millions-of-citizens

    That's true of most settled foreign citizens in most countries. In general, votes come with citizenship. If they want to enfranchise themselves they should become citizens.
    I wonder what the electoral consequences of this will be. There must be a lot of people now getting citizenship who wouldn't have bothered if not for Brexit.
    I suspect it will be Terrrrrrrible for the Tories......

    Except the citizens of Andorra, Austria, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Poland, Denmark, Latvia, Slovakia, Lithuania, Netherlands, Romania, Spain and Norway.....who will have to choose between citizenships, as their countries bar dual-citizenship and Germans who will have to get prior permission....

    http://dlgimmigration.com/united-states-citizenship/list-of-countries-that-allow-or-disallow-dual-citizenship/


    How would their home countries find out they have dual citizenship? I know several people with Spanish and UK passports.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,766
    edited June 2017
    The Times front page strongly suggests that David Davis continues to wing it. I wonder if he still believes we'll be signing a trade deal with Germany post-Brexit.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,229

    Perhaps we could house them in townships?

    Brexit Britain will be home to 3 million second-class European Union “settled citizens” who have been fingerprinted, registered and issued with a residence identity document and with no vote in general elections.

    That is the “between the lines” message of the British government’s offer on EU citizens’ rights after Brexit. The 3 million EU nationals will be joining the ranks of at least 1 million foreign nationals from outside the EU with “indefinite leave to remain” status who already form a largely invisible disenfranchised subclass in Britain.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/27/brexit-will-cement-disenfranchisement-of-millions-of-citizens

    That's true of most settled foreign citizens in most countries. In general, votes come with citizenship. If they want to enfranchise themselves they should become citizens.
    I wonder what the electoral consequences of this will be. There must be a lot of people now getting citizenship who wouldn't have bothered if not for Brexit.
    I suspect it will be Terrrrrrrible for the Tories......

    Except the citizens of Andorra, Austria, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Poland, Denmark, Latvia, Slovakia, Lithuania, Netherlands, Romania, Spain and Norway.....who will have to choose between citizenships, as their countries bar dual-citizenship and Germans who will have to get prior permission....

    http://dlgimmigration.com/united-states-citizenship/list-of-countries-that-allow-or-disallow-dual-citizenship/


    How would their home countries find out they have dual citizenship? I know several people with Spanish and UK passports.
    They wouldn't (unless the UK changes current practice of 'not telling' home countries) - but if their home countries do find out they risk being stripped of their citizenship....
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,229
    Nigelb said:

    This looks set to,be interesting,with the tight parliamentary arithmetic, and is probably not good for the Tories...
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40423052
    What might have looked an empty gesture pre-election takes on some political significance.


    Perhaps someone should table an amendment adding '1p to basic income tax to pay for it'?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,726

    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    LOL at the idea that Vince Cable is a "leftie" or "Labour by another means". Are we talking about the person who even back in 2009 was talking up the necessity of "savage" spending cuts, who was the main face of the tuition fees rise, who privatised the Royal Mail, and who generally didn't raise much objection to being in government with the Tories? If anything, I would say the biggest argument against him being leader is precisely that he would be distrusted by the left-liberal voters in Cambridge and the like who are still very negative towards the Coalition.

    Even so, if I was a LibDem member I would still probably think him the best option -- with the situation the party is in, they really need someone who has something of a public profile to even get noticed, even when that profile isn't wholly positive. They can't afford to take a punt on some new MP who might theoretically have broader appeal to their pre-Coalition voters (if there are any MPs who meet that criteria), they need to go with someone who the public already know just to get back into the game.

    Cable was a Labour councillor and parliamentary candidate before he joined the SDP, he is also a staunch Europhile and social democrat (note not socialist)
    He was a Labour councillor in the 1970s, but I rather suspect voters may think his policies and actions in 2010-15 are rather more relevant.
    Don't forget Labour won about a third of 2015 LDs in 2017, Cable could win them back, after all they voted for Clegg even if they did not vote for Farron
    Cable would struggle to keep my vote, and I am a party member!
    Cable's their best choice, IMHO.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,726

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Perhaps we could house them in townships?

    Brexit Britain will be home to 3 million second-class European Union “settled citizens” who have been fingerprinted, registered and issued with a residence identity document and with no vote in general elections.

    That is the “between the lines” message of the British government’s offer on EU citizens’ rights after Brexit. The 3 million EU nationals will be joining the ranks of at least 1 million foreign nationals from outside the EU with “indefinite leave to remain” status who already form a largely invisible disenfranchised subclass in Britain.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/27/brexit-will-cement-disenfranchisement-of-millions-of-citizens

    That's no difference from my experience in the US. I had to be fingerprinted at the embassy, I have a residency document that I have to keep, and I have no vote. Yet still tens/hundreds of thousands want to emigrate here every year.
    But you're planning on coming back to the UK in the short term, these are people who are planning to stay in the UK for the long term.

    So not strictly comparable?
    I'm on a dual-intent visa, I could apply for permanent residency if I wished. Even if I did that I would still have been fingerprinted, I'd have even more residency documents to carry around with me, and I still wouldn't get a vote.
    But there's a route for you to get the vote, unlike these poor EU souls, they'd be better off being Commonwealth citizens.

    No wonder one third of them are considering leaving the UK.
    Since foreign nationals have never had the vote in Parliamentary elections in this country, how are they being disenfranchised?

    It seems entirely right to me that voting is linked to citizenship.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited June 2017
    Sean_F said:

    Cable's their best choice, IMHO.

    +1

    The LibDems need to be highly pragmatic. They need to be noticed and not ignored and that means Cable. He's one of the few LibDem heavyweights in the HoC and is far more high profile and media friendly than any LibDem other than Clegg.

    That said the yellow peril should avoid a coronation for the same reason - media coverage. Even a token opponent would be better and also have the merit of introducing a new (female) MP to the country.

    It's Strictly Come On Vince.

  • kingbongokingbongo Posts: 393
    Sean_F said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Perhaps we could house them in townships?

    Brexit Britain will be home to 3 million second-class European Union “settled citizens” who have been fingerprinted, registered and issued with a residence identity document and with no vote in general elections.

    That is the “between the lines” message of the British government’s offer on EU citizens’ rights after Brexit. The 3 million EU nationals will be joining the ranks of at least 1 million foreign nationals from outside the EU with “indefinite leave to remain” status who already form a largely invisible disenfranchised subclass in Britain.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/27/brexit-will-cement-disenfranchisement-of-millions-of-citizens

    That's no difference from my experience in the US. I had to be fingerprinted at the embassy, I have a residency document that I have to keep, and I have no vote. Yet still tens/hundreds of thousands want to emigrate here every year.
    But you're planning on coming back to the UK in the short term, these are people who are planning to stay in the UK for the long term.

    So not strictly comparable?
    I'm on a dual-intent visa, I could apply for permanent residency if I wished. Even if I did that I would still have been fingerprinted, I'd have even more residency documents to carry around with me, and I still wouldn't get a vote.
    But there's a route for you to get the vote, unlike these poor EU souls, they'd be better off being Commonwealth citizens.

    No wonder one third of them are considering leaving the UK.
    Since foreign nationals have never had the vote in Parliamentary elections in this country, how are they being disenfranchised?

    It seems entirely right to me that voting is linked to citizenship.
    I have to have an ID card, have no vote and will never be entitled to a state pension but still choose to live in Denmark - EU citizens will make similar choices in the UK including becoming citizens if they wish - just as I may do (but even then I won't get a pension)
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    The world as I know it must be changing faster than I can keep up. A photo caption in OK news I just caught sight of says "Danielle Bux is pregnant with her new boyfriend".
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,766
    edited June 2017
    Sean_F said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Perhaps we could house them in townships?

    Brexit Britain will be home to 3 million second-class European Union “settled citizens” who have been fingerprinted, registered and issued with a residence identity document and with no vote in general elections.

    That is the “between the lines” message of the British government’s offer on EU citizens’ rights after Brexit. The 3 million EU nationals will be joining the ranks of at least 1 million foreign nationals from outside the EU with “indefinite leave to remain” status who already form a largely invisible disenfranchised subclass in Britain.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/27/brexit-will-cement-disenfranchisement-of-millions-of-citizens

    That's no difference from my experience in the US. I had to be fingerprinted at the embassy, I have a residency document that I have to keep, and I have no vote. Yet still tens/hundreds of thousands want to emigrate here every year.
    But you're planning on coming back to the UK in the short term, these are people who are planning to stay in the UK for the long term.

    So not strictly comparable?
    I'm on a dual-intent visa, I could apply for permanent residency if I wished. Even if I did that I would still have been fingerprinted, I'd have even more residency documents to carry around with me, and I still wouldn't get a vote.
    But there's a route for you to get the vote, unlike these poor EU souls, they'd be better off being Commonwealth citizens.

    No wonder one third of them are considering leaving the UK.
    Since foreign nationals have never had the vote in Parliamentary elections in this country, how are they being disenfranchised?

    It seems entirely right to me that voting is linked to citizenship.

    Can't EU nationals vote in local elections currently? Taking that right away is disenfranchising them.

    What we are making clear to EU27 citizens is that we believe they currently have too many rights and we are not really that bothered if removing some of them causes upset. This will make little difference lower down the scale, but it will make the UK a far less attractive place to locate or remain for those whose skillsets give them a choice.

    The damage the UK is currently doing to its international standing is immense. The flag-waving party is inflicting substantial harm on what it professes to care about most. But there is an upside: as the UK becomes ever-more irrelevant internationally, we can drop the pretence that we sre a major international player and save ourselves a lot of money on projects like Trident.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,288

    Sean_F said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Perhaps we could house them in townships?

    Brexit Britain will be home to 3 million second-class European Union “settled citizens” who have been fingerprinted, registered and issued with a residence identity document and with no vote

    That is the “between the lines” message of the British government’s offer on EU citizens’ rights after Brexit. The 3 million EU nationals will be joining the ranks of at least 1 million foreign nationals from outside the EU with “indefinite leave to remain” status who already form a largely invisible disenfranchised subclass in Britain.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/27/brexit-will-cement-disenfranchisement-of-millions-of-citizens

    That's no difference from my experience in the US. I had to be fingerprinted at the embassy, I have a residency document that I have to keep, and I have no vote. Yet still tens/hundreds of thousands want to emigrate here every year.
    But you're planning on coming back to the UK in the short term, these are people who are planning to stay in the UK for the long term.

    So not strictly comparable?
    I'm on a dual-intent visa, I could apply for permanent residency if I wished. Even if I did that I would still have been fingerprinted, I'd have even more residency documents to carry around with me, and I still wouldn't get a vote.
    But there's a route for you to get the vote, unlike these poor EU souls, they'd be better off being Commonwealth citizens.

    No wonder one third of them are considering leaving the UK.
    Since foreign nationals have never had the vote in Parliamentary elections in this country, how are they being disenfranchised?

    It seems entirely right to me that voting is linked to citizenship.

    Can't EU nationals vote in local elections currently? Taking that right away is disenfranchising them.

    What we are making clear to EU27 citizens is that we believe they currently have too many rights and we are not really that bothered if removing some of them causes upset. This will make little difference lower down the scale, but it will make the UK a far less attractive place to locate or remain for those whose skillsets give them a choice.

    The damage the UK is currently doing to its international standing is immense. The flag-waving party is inflicting substantial harm on what it professes to care about most. But there is an upside: as the UK becomes ever-more irrelevant internationally, we can drop the pretence that we sre a major international player and save ourselves a lot of money on projects like Trident.

    Yes
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,766
    kingbongo said:

    Sean_F said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Perhaps we could house them in townships?

    Brexit Britain will be home to 3 million second-class European Union “settled citizens” who have been fingerprinted, registered and issued with a residence identity document and with no vote in general elections.

    That is the “between the lines” message of the British government’s offer on EU citizens’ rights after Brexit. The 3 million EU nationals will be joining the ranks of at least 1 million foreign nationals from outside the EU with “indefinite leave to remain” status who already form a largely invisible disenfranchised subclass in Britain.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/27/brexit-will-cement-disenfranchisement-of-millions-of-citizens

    That's no difference from my experience in the US. I had to be fingerprinted at the embassy, I have a residency document that I have to keep, and I have no vote. Yet still tens/hundreds of thousands want to emigrate here every year.
    But you're planning on coming back to the UK in the short term, these are people who are planning to stay in the UK for the long term.

    So not strictly comparable?
    I'm on a dual-intent visa, I could apply for permanent residency if I wished. Even if I did that I would still have been fingerprinted, I'd have even more residency documents to carry around with me, and I still wouldn't get a vote.
    But there's a route for you to get the vote, unlike these poor EU souls, they'd be better off being Commonwealth citizens.

    No wonder one third of them are considering leaving the UK.
    Since foreign nationals have never had the vote in Parliamentary elections in this country, how are they being disenfranchised?

    It seems entirely right to me that voting is linked to citizenship.
    I have to have an ID card, have no vote and will never be entitled to a state pension but still choose to live in Denmark - EU citizens will make similar choices in the UK including becoming citizens if they wish - just as I may do (but even then I won't get a pension)

    EU citizens are already making those decisions and are leaving. We are making the UK a less attractive place to come or to stay for those whose skills we really need. And, of course, if the UK government gets its way you will have fewer rights in Denmark than you do at the moment.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,288
    Nigelb said:

    This looks set to,be interesting,with the tight parliamentary arithmetic, and is probably not good for the Tories...
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40423052
    What might have looked an empty gesture pre-election takes on some political significance.

    Clever, because Northern Ireland has the highest proportion of public sector workers in the Uk.
  • kingbongokingbongo Posts: 393
    Except the citizens of Andorra, Austria, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Poland, Denmark, Latvia, Slovakia, Lithuania, Netherlands, Romania, Spain and Norway.....who will have to choose between citizenships, as their countries bar dual-citizenship

    No longer true of Denmark - my daughter has dual UK-DK citizenship
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,726

    Sean_F said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Perhaps we could house them in townships?

    Brexit Britain will be home to 3 million second-class European Union “settled citizens” who have been fingerprinted, registered and issued with a residence identity document and with no vote in general elections.

    That is the “between the lines” message of the British government’s offer on EU citizens’ rights after Brexit. The 3 million EU nationals will be joining the ranks of at least 1 million foreign nationals from outside the EU with “indefinite leave to remain” status who already form a largely invisible disenfranchised subclass in Britain.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/27/brexit-will-cement-disenfranchisement-of-millions-of-citizens

    That's no difference from my experience in the US. I had to be fingerprinted at the embassy, I have a residency document that I have to keep, and I have no vote. Yet still tens/hundreds of thousands want to emigrate here every year.
    But

    So not strictly comparable?
    I'm on a dual-intent visa, I could apply for permanent residency if I wished. Even if I did that I would still have beenaround with me, and I still wouldn't get a vote.
    But there's a route for you to get the vote, unlike these poor EU souls, they'd be better off being Commonwealth citizens.

    No wonder one third of them are considering leaving the UK.
    Since foreign nationals have never had the vote in Parliamentary elections in this country, how are they being disenfranchised?

    It seems entirely right to me that voting is linked to citizenship.

    Can't EU nationals vote in local elections currently? Taking that right away is disenfranchising them.

    What we are making clear to EU27 citizens is that we believe they currently have too many rights and we are not really that bothered if removing some of them causes upset. This will make little difference lower down the scale, but it will make the UK a far less attractive place to locate or remain for those whose skillsets give them a choice.

    The damage the UK is currently doing to its international standing is immense. The flag-waving party is inflicting substantial harm on what it professes to care about most. But there is an upside: as the UK becomes ever-more irrelevant internationally, we can drop the pretence that we sre a major international player and save ourselves a lot of money on projects like Trident.

    The Guardian article does not suggest they will lose the right to vote in local elections.

This discussion has been closed.