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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Taking the 3/1 on no Brexit deal being reached before the 1st of April 2019
Paddy Power have some Brexit specials up, most of them look like contributions to the Paddy Power bonus fund, or a long term interest free loan to them. The one that attracted my attention was the 3/1 on there no Brexit deal being reached before the 1st of April 2019.
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which saw her lose David Cameron’s majority
Of course, if Cameron had actually thought he'd get a majority he'd have hedged his referendum promise - or did he think he'd simply "carry the country with him"?
Whose hubris was more destructive, Cameron's or May's? Discuss.
This looks like another bet where the small print of the rules will be critical, as with yesterday's thread on minority government. What if there is some sort of transitional agreement covering a few key issues and setting out a route for further talks. Is this a "deal", or not?
The weakness of the current Westminster administration (in office, but not in power, thanks to May's foolish act in calling an unnecessary GE) and the UK's dire financial condition (at least as bad as the "piggies" - some might consider it an honorary member of this group), makes this more likely.
Don't blame Cameron for the mess that faces the country. Blame the 'bastards' who have brought down several Conservative leaders - some of them good - in their one-eyed zealous obsession with the EU.
And each time let Labour in.
Spreading your towels across multiple deckchairs is the sort of poor show best left to the likes of RobD
1) Pretending the pile of poo he got from Brussels was a 'great deal'
2) Campaigning for the above when he could have 'stood above it' then
3) Cutting & running when he lost. A democrat would have said 'The people have decided, time to get on with implementing their decision' instead of retiring from the fray. He could have made clear that he would stand down once Brexit was agreed.
In comparison all May has done is hurt the Tory Party, which will recover, and herself, fatally.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/jun/24/social-housing-poverty-homeless-shelter-rent
Does the May government have either the energy or imagination to begin to address this ?
And does Corbyn have anything to offer other than utopianism ?
2) An in/out EU referendum inevitably forced everyone to take sides. Behaving like it was AV redux would have shattered his credibility as PM.
3) If he'd done that, half of the country would have yelled "stitch up" at whatever deal he did or didn't do. No. He was absolutely right to say to the leavers; you brexit it, you fix it.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4631762/DUP-hold-secret-talks-Labour-Lib-Dems.html
Along those lines, a very good article by Nick Cohen looks at the more general bind those who subscribe to centrists politics are in -
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/24/should-we-give-up-on-politics-brexit-britain
Another interesting story in the Mail (not my usual journal of choice...):
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4636086/Chuka-Umunna-holds-secret-talks-Tory-Remainers.html
On topic, not sure about this one, how do they define (or not) the deal?
Major must have been a negotiating ninja to have met the IRA for so long and kept it genuinely secret
CCCC - Day 17 - 0730
Following recent events the authorities are struggling to remove one resident from her central London home after an inspection revealed that the present occupant had impinged her tenancy agreement by losing the majority of the safety fabric around her. However it appears she is refusing to evacuate the building.
The resident, that the Jacobite News Network understands is being named locally as a Mrs Theresa May, is thought to be suffering from Attention to the Deficit Disorder and double incompetence. A next door neighbour who wished only to called "Philip" told us that the woman has recently completely ignored him until a few weeks ago and he regarded her as a bloody difficult woman who tended to dig her heels in.
A bystander, a man in his 50's, who called himself "BoJo" said he knew the lady concerned and had himself tried to get rid of her from her home but at the time the tenancy was let he was away conducting a safety test on a high wire operation over the River Thames near the House of Commons.
But hilarious!
The SNP backtrack on short-term push for independence and will now press for keeping the UK in single market and more powers for Scotland over farming and fishing.
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/indyref2-u-turn-nicola-sturgeon-10683726
No chance of an extended timetable?
F1: didn't put up the pre-race ramble yesterday because I couldn't decide what to bet on. Happily, the group and match bets I was hoping for have gone up on Ladbrokes, so I shall peruse those following a caffeine infusion and see if anything seems nice.
If Corbyn manages a coup of uniting all the opposition parties, even for the purpose of getting rid of May, and takes over briefly it is a winner. And Paddy Power and the rest of the UK economy would probably last long enough to pay out, albeit the winnings may be somewhat devalued.
Btw I laughed out lad at your Coalition of Chaos diary today. You really are developing a fine sense of humour as you mature.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-40395743
One thing worth bearing in mind is that it seems Ferrari, as they were using older engines, may not have had access to the special qualifying engine mode - which can only be used a limited number of times before lunching the engine. They should be a bit more on the pace during the racethough they also have a slightly higher risk of engine failure.
I don't think Vettel has much of a chance of winning, though.
I'm chary of betting on the race, as I can see podium positions being influenced by the almost inevitable crashes...
Got two potential bets in mind.
Edited extra bit: hedging now four stakes better than not hedging, for the season so far.
Thank you.
Mrs JackW says that as I enter late middle age ..
Oh er missus ...
3/1 on this is good but I seem to be on the PP radar after this years successes on Macron and GE, so limited to 6 quid. It's like they don't want my money
It isn't impossible Corbyn could suddenly find himself PM and simply propose an election. A small risk to this bet, depending on its rules.
It would be too dangerous for our democracy to ignore the referendum result though.
Betting PostF1: just the one tip for the race. But who have I backed to beat his team mate? Read on to have the mystery revealed!*:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/06/azerbaijan-pre-race-2017.html
*It's Vandoorne.
Some countries within the EU are doing well, others aren't - why do we need to pay to trade with countries such as Greece?
Free trade is always the best option.
The only value in these odds is Theresa still being PM when we leave - if leave means end of March 2019
The drunk-on-patriotism PBTories may go on about being the 5th or 6th largest economy in the world but the EU deals with and very successfully with the US and China.
Brexit will be the single most self destructive act on British influence since Suez.
Perhaps you could list the member states that you consider to be strong and stable with an increasingly strong economy.
"The EU is doing exactly what we are doing: it's acting in its own best interest."
Of course it is. They also have a big advantage at the moment - they don't have about 10 - 15% of their population (including the BBC) actively hoping they'll fail. Strange negotiations where you have a bunch of people demanding to be involved on your side, yet they support the other side.
"We demand a 'soft' Brexit." "What do you want?" "Either a complete failure, a reversal of the referendum, or a leave in name only."
Yup, that's a recipe for a resounding success.
Que sera sera. but I do fear for democracy.
Again, this mess is not Cameron's responsibility. It is the responsibility of the Europhobes that linger malignantly within the Conservative party.
It'd be good if they actually started to accept responsibility.
For example insisting on fire retardant building materials.
You see Project Fear lost, you now have to make a positive case to convince the majority.
You can't.
I'm afraid you're floundering mate - have you listed the member states with an increasingly strong economy yet?
Otherwise you have to hope their definition of a deal matches yours.
Why do you object to that?
I have said all along that hard Brexit is nailed on, and we should plan on that basis. Some major Kent lorry parks with massive customs recruitment for example.
The roles have reversed, Cameron, Obama, Blair all told us we were fools and we voted accordingly. Instead of continually telling us we're fools you now need to make a positive case.
We're all ears.
He (repeatedly) took the easy short term option that has caused massive long lasting pain.
100% his fault.
Also, although reliability's poorer this year it's worth noting only four cars failed to finish last time.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/motor-sport/event/28268342/market?marketId=1.132142915
I don't think we will rejoin for 20 years, but rejoining the EEA may well be on for the next election. The European vision of a diverse and federal Europe is an attractive one, economically, politically and socially.
If, and of course its an enormous if, there is another referendum, I really hope this strapline from @foxinsox becomes the Rejoiners motto.
It will guarantee 90% for the Outers.
No, Cameron was a Eurosceptic. It is just that the Europhobes think that anyone even countenancing remaining within even a reformed EU must be a fully invested member of the Eu project.
Euroscepticism != Europhobia.
The governing party just ran a campaign committing themselves to ignore the main recommendation of the last public inquiry. You couldn't make it up.
Give this new inquiry credibility.
Implement leveson2.
Still annoyed at Button for that needless Monaco safety car. Oaf.
Agree on Cameron, incidentally.
A free trade agreement would include a mutually agreed set of widget safety standards so there could be, er, free trade in widgets.
It is possible to be Eurosceptic and consider remaining was the most sensible decision economically.
Unfortunately we are where we are with two packs of deranged ideologists INA scramble to the bottom.
Perhaps Cameron was right all along?
I'm expecting Bernd Maylander to have a busy afternoon.