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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Euro2014 betting moves see UKIP out to evens and CON in to 5/1
You can now get evens with Ladbrokes that UKIP will win most votes in Euro2014 http://t.co/5ytVwnI62K
CON now 5/1
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-23664210
Angry email off Argentina stating Solidarity with Spain ref Gibraltar. Told them I found some of their troops in my keyboard \o/ \o/ \o/ Lol
The system is weird...it should favour people with national profile...but apart from sitting MEPs, Arnatt, O'Flynn do any of the rest have a real national profile?
Membership in big regions can decide the outcome in smaller regions but if South East members don't put any West Midlands candidates on their ballot as they don't have a clue on who they are anyway, the regional breakdown could be not fully affected.
The system should favour candidates who can spend money on a national campaign. And candidates coming from another region (the SW organizer standing in West Midlands will get votes from SW members while the other WM candidates are unknown there)
So I guess the selection system will indeed screw the outcome for top spot but probably not much for remaining spots. As UKIP is now aiming for more than 1 seat in many regions, the pool of candidates in winnable positions won't change by much but their safeness will
"I only know that I'm NOT on the list and didn't put myself forward. At 79 years of age, I'm an observer, not a doer."
given the earlier posts on UKIP and dogging, you might have phrased that better. ;-)
» show previous quotes
Are any of them PB contributors?
I only know that I'm NOT on the list and didn't put myself forward. At 79 years of age, I'm an observer, not a doer.
Kellner article
Kellner is good at summarising past political arguments and their impact on public opinion.
He even manages to summarise in a single paragraph tim's entire output of 6,000 PB posts:
Labour's narrative is very different. It starts with some solid statistics about the course of the recession: that recovery started in 2009 and was well under way in the spring of 2010 – only to shudder to a halt when the coalition came to office. Since then we have seen almost three years of flatlining and a succession of mixed government targets – badly undershooting on growth and overshooting on government borrowing.
Where Kellner is weak is on interpreting the economy; distinguishing between cause and claim; using that knowledge to predict future economic trends and outcomes; and then predicting the impact on the political debate and public opinion.
Economists are no longer debating whether the UK has achieved sufficient growth velocity to escape recession. Barring external shocks, this is a taken. The debate has shifted to whether productivity, down 8% since the financial crisis, will recover over the short term, and, whether there is sufficient slack in the post-recessionary economy to move a further million unemployed back into work without causing inflation to take off. A further debate is on whether net investment will reverse its decline and start growing at rates similar to current GDP growth.
If productivity, investment and non-inflationary re-employment can be achieved in the short to medium term - and the consensus probability of this happening is marginally higher than 50% - then the economic effect will be an acceleration of both public and business confidence, and, most importantly, in real standards of living.
This will change the media, public and polling agenda in the next two years. The discussion will no longer be are we growing or are we more confident than before, but how will the rewards of austerity be distributed and what are the risks? Will the payback be in increased spend on public services; on a 'fairer' redistribution of wealth and income; or on gradual easing of the personal tax burden in return for continued, non-inflationary real income rises and high employment?
Or, put simply, the political agenda is changing to the questions of tax and spend, or, reward and relieve?
And Kellner, unsurprisingly as a psephologist rather than economiist, is behind the tide.
I still can't see the Conservatives winning this. UKIP are rightly favourites, and Labour could do well.
There are two key questions for me
1. will accelerating growth bring dividends to the treasury in the form of higher tax receipts and if so, how much?
2. Unemployment is a lagging indicator, at what point (if at all) will it start to fall?
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/resources/unemploymentratechart_tcm77-309700.png
As you can see, it has already fallen from its peak and is just below the level at the beginning of 2010.
This was an element that was overlooked in most of the commentary about the fall in real wages in Britain in the last three years. In the same period, EU unemployment has risen considerably:
http://s1.ibtimes.com/sites/www.ibtimes.com/files/styles/v2_article_large/public/2013/03/01/january-2013-euro-unemplyment-chart.jpg
Other EU countries have been better at protecting the wages of the in-work, but most of them have done so with rising unemployment.
I would not dispute that living standards for the many have fallen and fallen significantly in the last 3-years.
My question is whether the coalition can do anything about it before 2015.
The point remains, though.
OK, UKIP are a threat to that, but then so they were in 2009. On the other hand, Labour have consistently underperformed in European elections.
The bottom line IMO is that 5/1 looks quite a reasonable punt.
http://inagist.com/all/366829175979524096/
This is because of the annual phasing of tax receipts where July is a big payment month. Up to date the ONS/OBR were showing healthy tax receipts growth at around 4% against 1.8% expenses growth, but there is not enough evidence in yet to get a reliable full year prediction.
Curiously, the media narrative on the July figures may be negative as net borrowing is likely to show a monthly jump due some to the 'back of the sofa' BoE revenues no longer being included (accounting classification change). This will have a negative effective on PSNB ex (but not the cash or current account figures) but is still likely to 'muddy the waters'.
September will see a major debate on deficit prospects as it is when the OBR will release its next Economic and Fiscal Outlook (EFO). We should see some substantial changes to the official deficit reduction forecasts as the overly pessimistic March figures are replaced with the new reality.
With productivity 8% down on pre-recession levels, it is possible that enterprises will squeeze more output out of existing employees before increasing headcount.
Business investment has been slow to recover, unhelped by low bank supply of credit, and much government infrastructure investment has been deferred to the next parliamentary term. So this may cause additional lag. Bank lending and business investment should turn the corner in the second half of this year and if current growth in manufacturing, construction and production persists the prospects for 'new' employment growth seem positive.
Then there is a question about how skilled and ready for work the unemployed workforce really is. Those who became unemployed during the recession and who haven't since found jobs may have lost skills, confidence and motivation. It is known this makes them stickier to return to employment.
There is also the balance between the numbers of working age population who are non-participating in the economy (not looking for work or on unemployment register) and those who are actively seeking work. In the UK, in contrast to the US, the shifts in numbers from non-participation to job-seeking have often been higher than reductions in unemployment. Much of this is linked to in-work benefits system which incents 'partial employment'. So we might see continued increases in employment without a balancing reduction in unemployment.
Immigration levels are also a factor, as Chris Bryant has been clumsily trying to point out today. So too will be changes in the benefit rules and enforcement practice. So all eyes on IDS.
Given all the above variables,the rate of reduction in unemployment is very difficult to predict. It is quite possible we will see soaring total employment figures but a much slower reduction in unemployment. The ideal would be a combined and more gradualist increase in productivity and reduction in unemployment.
V. interesting thanks.
2. It's already falling, albeit slowly and in fits and starts. That will continue as long as wage increases remain subdued. And it's that metric which is one of the key political indicators.
The key question, as always, on the economy is about trust. As Mike's article this morning established, Labour still has a long way to go on winning back trust. People will accept austerity *if* they think it's both necessary and working. Consequently, in such circumstances, they'll back a party (or parties) which they believe can deliver it competently. On the other hand, if they think the policy misguided or mishandled, they won't - unless the alternatives on offer are even worse.
For me, the value at the moment lies with Labour. While I expect UKIP to poll strongly, the edge has gone off their GE poll ratings and while they'll surge back for the Euros, it's looking more like a recovery to their May levels or just beyond, rather than *another* step-change forward. I'd make Labour and UKIP pretty equal in the market to top the poll and hence Labour significantly overpriced.
I'm not saying the Conservatives should be favourites, of course; much depends on how much support leaks to UKIP. But last time round, the revisionist nonsense about the 'cast-iron-guarantee' was already in flow.
The voting system labour left us with is, quite honestly, a complete and utter disgrace.
At least postal votes will go to IVR for 2015. Labour even disputed that.
Mike - the above is from the blog plato linked
"For January to March 2010: the inactivity rate was 21.5 per cent and there were 8.17 million working age inactive people."
"For February to April 2013: The inactivity rate for those aged from 16 to 64 was 22.4%. There were 8.99 million economically inactive people aged from 16 to 64"
Just from these three extracts you get a sense that there are maybe 800,000 people who left as a result of pressure on employment and could return to unemployment as it picks up.
As things stand, neither @ChrisBryantMP nor anyone else from Labour front bench available to speak about a Labour speech. @labourpress ?
"An armed policeman who had sex on duty with another man’s wife kept his job because he was in full control of his firearm despite the fact that it was “around his ankles”.
PC Shaun Jenkins’s loaded gun was in his holster attached to his belt when he lowered his trousers to have sex with the woman. The Gwent Police officer also left an armed response vehicle waiting for him outside the property where the encounter took place, effectively taking a vital emergency vehicle out of action for half an hour.
An official report today revealed a series of secret disciplinary hearings at which PC Jenkins was initially given a written warning, then dismissed and finally reinstated by an appeal panel which said he had retained control of his gun and would have been back in the police car within minutes... " http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/crime/article3840866.ece
(1) Some of those people will have retired and have been replaced by youngsters who have never worked.
(2) Some have decided "Oh well, time to start a family", and might not return to work.
I don't know how to factor those in, but (1) could be quite significant over a six year period, as approximately 12% of the workforce were still at school in 2007.
Was someone else's wife's husband waiting in the van outside?
A man was having problems with premature ejaculation so he decided to go to the doctor. He asked the doctor what could he do to cure his problem ...
In response the doctor said, "When you feel like you are getting ready to ejaculate try startling yourself". That same day the man went to the store and bought himself a starter pistol. All excited to try this suggestion out he runs home to his wife.
At home his wife is in bed, naked and waiting on her husband. As the two begin, they find themselves in the '69' position. The man, moments later, feels the sudden urge to come and fires the starter pistol.
The next day, the man went back to the doctor. The doctor asked, "How did it go?". The man answered, "Not that well ... when I fired the pistol my wife shit on my face, bit 3 inches off my penis and my neighbour came out of the closet with his hands in the air!"
IIRC, only Mrs Thatcher's government in 1984 won a European election that wasn't held in a non general election year
Labour gearing up ahead of inflation figs tomorrow with latest stage of its "Wouldn't It Be Nice If Things Were A Bit Cheaper" campaign
I pointed out examples like "Kingdom of Spain", "Kingdom of the Netherlands" but she promptly shouted at me, insisting they don't call themselves as such "at the Olympics"!
http://www.radiotimes.com/episode/cmtgmw/dreaming-the-impossible-unbuilt-britain--series-1---1-glass-houses
Includes something about Joseph Paxton, one of my (many) engineering heroes.
That rule especially applies if it is your mother.
England finally getting wickets and the Aus 2nd innings finally having the look of a normal 4th innings about it !
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-23664210
"For 9 months, I've been chairman of City of Liverpool Conservative Future. I first became involved 3 yrs ago when I moved back to my hometown after university; I didn’t know anyone there anymore and the local CF branch was an opportunity to meet people. Thankfully, its members were all nice, smart, and laidback and I developed many strong friendships. When the opportunity came to give something back and help develop the branch, I took it, as I was emotionally invested in its success.
Unfortunately, a proportion of my time has been spent dealing with extremists. ‘Extremist’ is a better descriptor than, say, ‘Thatcherite’ or ‘right-wing’ because all Conservatives are, to a greater or lesser extent, Thatcherite and right-wing. Instead, these people hold an extreme point-of-view – typically a combination of hard, unfeeling libertarianism at home and chauvinism abroad – and who accuse anyone that disagrees with them of not being truly conservative. There is also only one way to show one’s commitment to the Tory Party: leafleting. If you aren’t willing to spend your evenings and weekends out leafleting, then you are pointless.
Though not exclusively Thatcherite, the ‘Iron Lady’ has a prominent place in their thinking – at least, their understanding of her. Rather than appreciating that Thatcher was a politician who, like any other, compromised, dissembled, and courted popular opinion in order to achieve her objectives, extremists think of her as a ‘conviction politician’ who did none of these things. Thus one of the lessons they draw is that in order to be like Thatcher, they should be intolerant of others’ views and be downright rude about them in the process.
Another lesson is that being isolated from the mainstream is a prerequisite for gaining power. Thatcher was an ‘outsider’, yet she won the leadership from Establishment ‘apostate’ Ted Heath.... No compromise; no dissembling; and no courting of popular opinion... http://toryreformgroup.tumblr.com/post/58060528440/if-the-party-wants-more-members-we-must-stamp-out
"The same intolerance is shown over leafleting. Given the membership crises affecting all the main parties, we need to be thankful that anyone is interested in us at all and must try to persuade them to care enough to actively campaign. Those who join who think they might be Tories and think they like David Cameron, but aren’t entirely sure, do not want to be press-ganged into leafleting in obscure council boroughs they’ve never heard of, let alone will never live in.
And in Liverpool our problem is not that activists aren’t pushing enough leaflets through letterboxes, it’s that we’re hated. I work in a bar on weekends; when one of the previously friendly customers found out I was a Conservative, he started referring to me as “Tory c**t”. Our party brand is toxic in cities like Liverpool; we could fell entire rainforests and turn them into leaflets and it would not impact this basic political fact.
Yet whenever I have tried to argue that there are many ways members can contribute to the Party and none more or less Conservative than the other, my commitment has been questioned.
For many extremists, their inspirational text is The Road to Serfdom or Atlas Shrugged; for me, it was The Conservative Party from Peel to Major. In it Lord Blake, the great historian of our party, wrote that ‘[s]tern, unbending [ideology] has never paid dividends’ to us. Conservatism is a diverse political ideology, like any other; we all pick different strands from within it, and even some from outside it, and weave them together to form our own personal ideology. That’s how our Party has evolved and survived for so long.
If we become both intolerant and doctrinaire, then we will die."
http://www.cbrd.co.uk/histories/ringways/
1) Is SeanT still alive?
2) Is SeanT's journalism career still alive?
3) Has Avery spontaneously combusted after recent economic data?
4) Has Avery and SamCam gone off to liberate Syria yet?
5) Has tim been shouting "British Workers For British Jobs"?
6) Has tim been shouting "On your bike doleite"?
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100230838/jacamerons-coalition-of-liars-trimmers-and-charlatans-are-destroying-britains-landscape
"Certainly, that phone call for me was the last time I'll ever trust anything one of Cameron's despicable bunch of wriggling, squirmy, morally bankrupt toe rags tells me again. I loathe them with every fibre of my being, for many reasons, but for one above all: thanks to their incompetence, cowardice, cynicism and ignorance they are destroying the greatest of all our magnificent country's assets – the matchless beauty of its countryside."
I really can't see the problem with the Lundy offshore development. (For the avoidance of doubt, I'm fairly happy about fracking too, by and large).
The fracking footprint is quite small. Southern Tories should beware dismissing it out of hand.
I assume that that is what JDelingpole is on about?
2) Just
3) No
4) No
5) tim has been very quiet
6) he will soon
Welcome back.
As regular readers will know, I have an affinity with our glorious coast. Despite this, I do not mind offshore windfarms that much, especially as the footprint will be small. I do not mind the new windfarm that's visible from my wife's study.
I am, however. against upland windfarms in the UK in wilderness areas. Not because of visual intrusion per se, but because of the damage the haul roads and infrastructure cause to a delicate landscape.
So I would be hypocritical to criticise him too much. But I do think that complaining about an offshore farm near Lundy, which few people get the opportunity to visit, is being a little precious (onshore would be a different matter)
Not to say we should therefore look at it as "in for a penny..." but fracking is not the enemy.
Windmills, meanwhile.....
"Harlow, is it me you're looking for"
and
"Help me Rhonnda" were stand-outs!
I am a) yes to offshore; and b) no to onshore. Primarily because of the externalities as you mention.
Exclusive: Libdems draw up plans for big jump in capital gains tax on high earners. Also conference vote on 50p tax. ft.com/cms/s/0/2e2a00…
GENERAL ELECTION
Hillary Clinton (D) 44%
Chris Christie (R) 42%
Hillary Clinton (D) 48%
Rand Paul (R) 45%
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
Hillary Clinton 59%
Joe Biden 14%
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Rand Paul 21%
Marco Rubio 17%
http://washingtonexaminer.com/sarah-palin-blasts-chris-christie-as-a-big-government-republican/article/2534126
“On Fox News Saturday morning, former Gov. Sarah Palin, R-Alaska, explained to host Eric Bolling that she would choose Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky. over Gov. Chris Christie, R-N.J.
“I am on Team Rand,” Palin said. “Rand Paul understands, he gets the whole notion of ‘don’t tread on me’ government, whereas Chris Christie is for big government, you know, and trying to go along and get along in so many respects.”
http://www.pylons.org/
Thirty-four of Bristol's biggest shops could be hit by a new tax of 8.5% of their rateable value. The large retail levy has been an option for councils since the Sustainable Communities Act of 2008. The Green Party supports the tax, saying the money raised - about £3.3m - would be pumped back into high streets. But Labour, the Conservatives and some Liberal Democrats are against the proposal, which is to be discussed by the council in September.
Have any other Councils proposed this tax and implemented it?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-23665137
George Eaton@georgeeaton1m
Ed lives! RT @Ed_Miliband: Congratulations to England on great Ashes victory. Brilliant effort and result.
Michael Deacon@MichaelPDeacon5m
The Kraken wakes RT @Ed_Miliband: Congratulations to England on great Ashes victory. Brilliant effort and result
(I also knew someone who collected old mechanical telephone exchange equipment, and made his own working exchange. I once raided the offices deep in the bowels of Derbyshire county council offices in Matlock with him - until the early 1990s, all councils had to have mechanical exchanges in case of nuclear war. He got loads of goodies from it).
British eccentrics are wonderful.
“@guardian: Public confidence in Tories' economic competence surges – ICM poll t.gu.com/nRofM” << last months ICM *was* an outlier
The proportion of people prepared to back the Tory team for economic competence has soared to 40% from 28% in June. The findings will make grim post-holiday reading for the Labour leader, Ed Miliband, who along with the shadow chancellor, Ed Balls, has seen a much smaller rise in credibility, with 24% of the public preferring them compared with 19% two months ago...
While the latest voting intentions have Labour ahead of the Tories by three points on 35%, the crucial economic "competence" figures will be a blow to Miliband, who has had a difficult summer following criticisms by backbenchers of the party's lack of direction and leadership..." 3pts http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/aug/12/guardian-icm-poll-tories-economic-confidence
I refer to Nick Palmer MP as he understands the local geography (apologies to anyone else who does I'm an occasional lurker on here) - what is puzzeling for me is if you take Nottingham the ethnic minority vote is mainly in the city of Nottingham, the greater Nottingham districts such as Broxtowe, Gedling and Rushcliffe are mainly white areas with small percentages of ethnic minorities (I accept that mass immigration may change this hopefully I'll be dead when the immigration time-bomb defuses) but we are where we are two years from a general election. There is no way, what so-ever that the ethnic vote would sway the outcome in Rushcliffe. There is no evidence to support the ethnic minority vote will sway your result in Broxtowe (I think you have to rub your eyes in disbelieve if you see an ethnic minority walking the streets of Awsworth) is not the case that if there was some millage in what the Guardian was saying would they not just pile votes in just safe Labour seats within the city like the Tories used to do under John Major in 1992 which is just useless under First Past the Post?
The other major cities/conurbations within the Midlands have similar demographic make-ups such as the West Midlands and Leicester and I cannot see how the Guardian's article holds water. Surely as I suspect the Guardian lives in it's own London bubble and thinks the rest of the country will vote the same way as London. The Guardian without really understanding the demographics of Britains regions compare the ethnic minority vote of Britian to that in America which is pointless. Most ethnic minorities I know within Nottingham plan not to vote in 2015. I suspect that that article was scaremongering by the Guardian in response to the "Go-Home illegal immigrants vans which have lefties completely wound up.
Lab 35 -1
Con 32 -4
LD 14 +1
UKIP 10 +3
Others 7 +1
Why is that an exclusive? The details of the policy paper can be read here:
http://www.libdems.org.uk/siteFiles/resources/docs/conference/2013 Autumn/Policy/111 - Fairer Taxes.pdf
As you posted the other day the fall in Labour support by 1% is within MofE therefore not significant , the fall in Conservative support of 4 points is outside MofE anfd therefore significant .
SeanT is right about Labour, though. If that number falls further it will be very significant, even if Labour retains its lead. When was the last time ICM had Labour below 35?
Morning - joining the rest of the commentariat on Labour's challenges on @bbc5live at 8.05. In summer 2008 Tories were 24 points ahead..
Individual polls are the lifeblood of PB; they are also the chip-paper, to be thrown away within a few days. Only the election day really matters, and even a trend in many polls can be proved wrong. Some people take them too seriously, but at least they give us something to witter on about, or feel good (or bad) about.
It is fun reading people getting over-excited at one poll (Wait until I orgasm over the first poll to show the public in favour of HS2, or one that shows engineers make the best, most considerate lovers)