There was a lively debate on the previous thread about whether there was or was not a house price bubble in progress. During this debate various indices were banded about. The problem with this is that the indices capture the info at different times as follows
1) You look at houses online (Rightmove index) 2) You go into an estate agents and mooch around (RICS survey) 3) You see a house, arrange a mortgage and put an offer in (Halifax and Nationwide indices) 4) The offer is accepted, you exchange and get the keys (Bank of England mortgage figures) 5) The solicitor registers the sale (Land Registry)
From beginning to end this takes six to eight months. So if a house price boom started in May, you'd see it in the June Rightmove index and RICS survey, then in the July/August Halifax and Nationwide indices, then in the Sept/Oct BOE figures, then in the Nov/Dec/Jan Land Registry index
We can say that the data we have is consistent with a HPB starting in May, but we won't know for sure until Xmas and (because one swallow doesn't make a summer), not even then. For a definitive answer you'll have to wait until May 2014: at which point it'll be too late...:-)
The latest (Jun/Jul) reports are given below for your perusal
Groundwar fails to be assessed. Alert the NEC to send a inquiring team to Swindon as they were spotted canvassing a street in the wrong ward yesterday on local by-election day!!
Derek Laud..hmmm.. is he the one who sold those magazines in front of Kings Cross Station.. or the chap with the Ice Cream van on Westminster Bridge..that well known political guru.. Who the F**k is Derek Laud, and why would anyone regard his opinion.. Its like getting a quote from one of the Downing St cleaners..desperation time..
Maybe , we do separate one for 2010, 2011, 2012. Cumulatively, there still be close 10000 votes in each category, probably higher.
I accept purists will not agree but this is the second best thing. What does Rallings 7 Thrasher do when they extrapolate local by-elections to the national scene. More or less the same thing, I suppose.
Total votes is not we should be looking for but the overall swing.
Problem is if you collate over a period large enough to have a significant number of results then you run the danger of including variances in popularity that could occur in that period. Opinion can and sometimes does shift markedly in short(ish) spaces of time as well as the more gradual trends. Granted, you'll catch a shift if it is more permanent.
I can't see too many people seriously questioning that the overall picture is basically what we see here as it's pretty much backed up by the big tests like the locals in May.
and an increasing number of by elections will be swings from 2013 . The more you lok at the swings you see that there are wild variations from ward to ward . Littlemoor in Ribble Valley last week had a 15% swing from Con to LD . Oulton this week had UKIP going from 0 to 24.6% but in May they polled around 38% in the larger CC division . You are trying to quantify into a single exact figure something which is a combination of different patterns . It is possible to combine say 6 month's results and average the party's vote shares but even here you must be careful When the 6 month rule comes in in November then the following by elections will have a heavy Conservative bias in the number of seats fought .
Yeah, it's tricky! There must be some statistical trick we can use, surely.
What is this 6-month rule?
If a vacancy occurs 6 moths or less before the following May's local elections a by election will not be fought . I have in the past posted accumulative results for 6 or more month's by elections on a party % basis and will probably do so again at the end of the year . The sample will then be large enough to give a reasonable estimate of performance but because of the differing years last fought swings are not meannigful .
Wealden recorded the 30th highest Tory share at 56.56%.
Brilliant stuff, Andy! So only two lost deposits?
Only two lost deposits ? Therein lies the Tories' dilemma. Under their much beloved FPTP system, if they could have another 50 lost deposits but could miraculously transfer those votes where they finished second, they might have pulled off a majority.
OK, the Lib Dems also have their votes spread out but they are the third party.
How many seats did Labour end up third as opposed to the Tories ?
It wouldn't surprise me if Mr Lauder-Frost is one of those on the Right who express their dislike of Jews on rather too many occasions. He seems a bit confused about his Traditional Britishness, perhaps he dons his various identities like the Highland dress he's wearing.
“It’s ridiculous. She has made countless anti-English comments over the last 10 years. She’s no friend of the English people.”
"The Poles asked for it from 1919 onwards. It was Britain and France who made it a world war, not Hitler."
"The Nuremberg trials were a farce. They were show trials without an ounce of legitimacy."
"The Africans never had it so good as when Britain governed their colonies there… We owe Africa nothing whatsoever. It owes us eternal gratitude for lifting it out of barbarism."
The problem is that the swings are from different starting points , Merton from 2010 , Redcar and Waveney from 2011 and Swindon from 2012 so they cannot sensibly be combined .
Could you not incorporate the national 2010->2011 and 2010->2012 swing to project what the 2012 vote would have been in Merton and Redcar & Waveney, then produce a swing from that projected starting point?
and an increasing number of by elections will be swings from 2013 . The more you lok at the swings you see that there are wild variations from ward to ward . Littlemoor in Ribble Valley last week had a 15% swing from Con to LD . Oulton this week had UKIP going from 0 to 24.6% but in May they polled around 38% in the larger CC division . You are trying to quantify into a single exact figure something which is a combination of different patterns . It is possible to combine say 6 month's results and average the party's vote shares but even here you must be careful When the 6 month rule comes in in November then the following by elections will have a heavy Conservative bias in the number of seats fought .
An easier solution could be just totting up each week's votes. Take a rolling 5 week total/average and then just see the trend.
It would not matter when the previous elections took place.
Again, it would not satisfy the purists but who cares ? Andrea / Mark / Andy, is there a place where these results are given ?
I hadn't realised until today that the LDs hadn't lost any deposits in 2010 whereas both the Conservatives and Labour had. That's the first time that's happened in recent history (I think).
An easier solution could be just totting up each week's votes. Take a rolling 5 week total/average and then just see the trend.
It would not matter when the previous elections took place.
Again, it would not satisfy the purists but who cares ? Andrea / Mark / Andy, is there a place where these results are given ?
I've been sorely tempted to set up a database of local election results with an online portal, although I guess it would be of very (read: extremely) limited appeal. The only downside is the huge amount of data which needs to be entered up-front, and keeping track of defections (by-elections are easy thanks to PB).
It was not about politics. It was about occupational outcomes for women having a child. Something very boring even compared to local by-elections in Swindon.
The problem is that the swings are from different starting points , Merton from 2010 , Redcar and Waveney from 2011 and Swindon from 2012 so they cannot sensibly be combined .
Could you not incorporate the national 2010->2011 and 2010->2012 swing to project what the 2012 vote would have been in Merton and Redcar & Waveney, then produce a swing from that projected starting point?
and an increasing number of by elections will be swings from 2013 . The more you lok at the swings you see that there are wild variations from ward to ward . Littlemoor in Ribble Valley last week had a 15% swing from Con to LD . Oulton this week had UKIP going from 0 to 24.6% but in May they polled around 38% in the larger CC division . You are trying to quantify into a single exact figure something which is a combination of different patterns . It is possible to combine say 6 month's results and average the party's vote shares but even here you must be careful When the 6 month rule comes in in November then the following by elections will have a heavy Conservative bias in the number of seats fought .
An easier solution could be just totting up each week's votes. Take a rolling 5 week total/average and then just see the trend.
It would not matter when the previous elections took place.
Again, it would not satisfy the purists but who cares ? Andrea / Mark / Andy, is there a place where these results are given ?
ALDC and the Vote-2012 will both give you each weeks results but I don;t think there are enough every week to make 5 week moving averages meaningful .
Another clear sign of Ed Miliband's weak Leadership. A very clear ultimatum to Ed Miliband from a member of his own Shadow Cabinet? Andy Burnham in the Guardian - Labour must shout louder or risk election defeat, warns Andy Burnham 'Shadow health secretary says time is running out for coherent Labour challenge to the coalition'
"Labour's leadership must put its cards on the table before next spring and produce a set of policies which define the party or risk defeat at the next general election, the shadow health secretary, Andy Burnham, has warned.
In a candid interview with the Guardian, Burnham voiced concern that time is running out to mount a coherent challenge to the coalition. The party under Ed Miliband still had time to present a distinctive economic alternative, but he warned that waiting longer would mean that the window will be closed.
"I think there's definitely a need to shout louder, and speak in a way that captures how people are feeling and thinking. There's definitely a need to put our cards on the table," he said.
Asked how long that window was he replied not "much beyond next spring"."
It wouldn't surprise me if Mr Lauder-Frost is one of those on the Right who express their dislike of Jews on rather too many occasions. He seems a bit confused about his Traditional Britishness, perhaps he dons his various identities like the Highland dress he's wearing.
“It’s ridiculous. She has made countless anti-English comments over the last 10 years. She’s no friend of the English people.”
"The Poles asked for it from 1919 onwards. It was Britain and France who made it a world war, not Hitler."
"The Nuremberg trials were a farce. They were show trials without an ounce of legitimacy."
"The Africans never had it so good as when Britain governed their colonies there… We owe Africa nothing whatsoever. It owes us eternal gratitude for lifting it out of barbarism."
Lauder-Frost is a truly epic twit. The kind of out of touch twit other tory twits merely aspire to become. "swivel-eyed loon" doesn't even begin to cover it.
I hadn't realised until today that the LDs hadn't lost any deposits in 2010 whereas both the Conservatives and Labour had. That's the first time that's happened in recent history (I think).
It wouldn't surprise me if Mr Lauder-Frost is one of those on the Right who express their dislike of Jews on rather too many occasions. He seems a bit confused about his Traditional Britishness, perhaps he dons his various identities like the Highland dress he's wearing.
“It’s ridiculous. She has made countless anti-English comments over the last 10 years. She’s no friend of the English people.”
"The Poles asked for it from 1919 onwards. It was Britain and France who made it a world war, not Hitler."
"The Nuremberg trials were a farce. They were show trials without an ounce of legitimacy."
"The Africans never had it so good as when Britain governed their colonies there… We owe Africa nothing whatsoever. It owes us eternal gratitude for lifting it out of barbarism."
Lauder-Frost is a truly epic twit. The kind of out of touch twit other tory twits merely aspire to become. "swivel-eyed loon" doesn't even begin to cover it.
Mitcham & Morden recorded Labour's 5th highest share of the vote in the whole of the following regions: Greater London, South East, South West, Eastern, West Midlands, East Midlands. (The other four were, unsurprisingly, in London: Camberwell, Tottenham, West Ham, East Ham).
Another clear sign of Ed Miliband's weak Leadership. A very clear ultimatum to Ed Miliband from a member of his own Shadow Cabinet? Andy Burnham in the Guardian - Labour must shout louder or risk election defeat, warns Andy Burnham 'Shadow health secretary says time is running out for coherent Labour challenge to the coalition'
"Labour's leadership must put its cards on the table before next spring and produce a set of policies which define the party or risk defeat at the next general election, the shadow health secretary, Andy Burnham, has warned.
In a candid interview with the Guardian, Burnham voiced concern that time is running out to mount a coherent challenge to the coalition. The party under Ed Miliband still had time to present a distinctive economic alternative, but he warned that waiting longer would mean that the window will be closed.
"I think there's definitely a need to shout louder, and speak in a way that captures how people are feeling and thinking. There's definitely a need to put our cards on the table," he said.
Asked how long that window was he replied not "much beyond next spring"."
Assuming he will be in the shadow cabinet in a couple of months .
On the 1982 Mitcham & Morden by-election video that I posted yesterday you can see the current MP Siobhain McDonagh sitting on the platform next to Michael Foot for a brief moment.
Interesting no mention of Cams commitment to the aid budget being a certain percentage of GDP despite opponents in his own party. But I suppose that is other peoples money so it doesn't count.
Anyway, it's a bit hypocritical to say this about Cam unless the author herself has sold all her worldly possessions and given the proceeds to the poor. How many of us would really do that? Very few I'd imagine.
f I haven’t missed anyone (Andy can check), Conservatives have selected so far in 23 seats won by Labour in 2010…..if we look at smaller 2010 Lab majorities over Con, the list is pretty similar with some exceptions.
Seats in top 23 lowest Lab majorities over Con with no PPC yet:
Great Grimsby Birmingham Edgbaston Wakefield Plymouth Moor View Gedling Eltham Walsall South
Instead they have already selected in
Birmingham Erdington Birmingham Northfield Westminster North Gower Vale of Clywd Delyn Harrow West
So it seems it’s a sign of change of strategy in Birmingham.
I guess Walsall South and Wakefield being left behind is because they decided to concentrate on next door seat.
Gedling is moving away from them. So it can make sense
I guess they decided to include some Welsh seats but I am not sure on the logic behind Delyn and Vale of Clwyd before Clywd South. They all look pretty much the same (even if in 2011 Welsh Assembly VoC was the one with highest majority between the 3). So maybe it was a random choice.
I am not sure why they left Great Grimsby behind. I am sure AnotherRichard would disagree on this choice.
Why Harrow West before Eltham? HW even voted for Ken as mayor in 2012.
Useless fact: the result in Bournemouth West was delayed until the next day, most probably because Labour were so close to saving their deposit with 12.48%. (I can't imagine a returning officer these days delaying a result for so long for this reason).
"In Sherwood, with a Conservative majority of 214, the party does not reveal its membership. But it took £730 from members’ subscriptions last year – which at £25 a head works out at fewer than 30 members. The chairman wrote: “Expenditure over income during 2012 was significant and is clearly unsustainable in the long term.”
At this rate Cameron's legacy will be the man who blew the unloseable election and who killed the Tory Party on the ground. But he had some nice photoshoots
Where do you get the data, tim? I used to know but I can't see it on the Electoral Commission site. Does Broxtowe Conservatives have any members left? I know the local paper has been trying for weeks to find a local Tory willing to write an article.
Tom Watson seems to have the catalyst again for an outbreak of open discontent and criticism of a Labour Leader as the Union bosses start to rattle their sabres. He told us that Ed Miliband had wanted him to stay in his campaign post despite the Falkirk scandal, but headed back to the backbenches anyway after delivering a very mocking resignation to Ed Miliband. But now we hear he is off to Australia to offer his help to Rudd's campaign over the Summer Recess, yet further highlighting the snub he delivered to his party Leader.
Both discipline and party unity is fast breaking down within the Labour ranks in the run up the Labour Conference. Mudie was a backbencher, but Burnham is a member of the Shadow Cabinet, and he just delivered an ultimatum with a clear dead line to Ed Miliband to get a grip and set out some Labour policies. Miliband still hasn't replaced Watson and is nowhere to be seen.
Another clear sign of Ed Miliband's weak Leadership. A very clear ultimatum to Ed Miliband from a member of his own Shadow Cabinet? Andy Burnham in the Guardian - Labour must shout louder or risk election defeat, warns Andy Burnham 'Shadow health secretary says time is running out for coherent Labour challenge to the coalition'
"Labour's leadership must put its cards on the table before next spring and produce a set of policies which define the party or risk defeat at the next general election, the shadow health secretary, Andy Burnham, has warned.
In a candid interview with the Guardian, Burnham voiced concern that time is running out to mount a coherent challenge to the coalition. The party under Ed Miliband still had time to present a distinctive economic alternative, but he warned that waiting longer would mean that the window will be closed.
"I think there's definitely a need to shout louder, and speak in a way that captures how people are feeling and thinking. There's definitely a need to put our cards on the table," he said.
Asked how long that window was he replied not "much beyond next spring"."
Assuming he will be in the shadow cabinet in a couple of months .
Interesting no mention of Cams commitment to the aid budget being a certain percentage of GDP despite opponents in his own party. But I suppose that is other peoples money so it doesn't count.
You mean previous commitment? Cammie u-turned.
Queen's Speech: International Aid Law 'Cynically Dropped To Appease Tory MPs'
David Cameron has been accused of using international development as a "cynical weapon" to win over Tory backbenchers after a pledge to legally commit the government to spending on aid was dropped from the Queen's Speech.
Wednesday's speech, which set out the government's forthcoming legislative agenda, did not include a move to enshrine in law a promise to spend 0.7% of GNI (Gross National Income) on international aid.
The promise of a legal commitment was included in the Conservative Party 2010 manifesto as well as in the coalition agreement which stated: "We will honour our commitment to spend 0.7% of GNI on overseas aid from 2013, and to enshrine this commitment in law."
Anyway, it's a bit hypocritical to say this about Cam unless the author herself has sold all her worldly possessions and given the proceeds to the poor. How many of us would really do that? Very few I'd imagine.
While there is evidence that the poorer tend to give more to charity -
Poor more generous than rich in recession, study shows
Professor Yaojun Li, of the Institute for Social Change, University of Manchester, analysed survey data on over 100,000 adults in England and Wales, over ten years to 2011.
“An inverse relationship is found between giving and income,” said Professor Li. “While people in higher income positions are found to give more in absolute terms in terms of pounds given, they are found to give less as a proportion of their or their family incomes.
- it's still a bit much to claim that you can't possibly criticise or formulate policies that impact on the poorer in society unless you give everything to the poor.
On that basis why not throw all those in westminster out the door accepting their £10,000 10% pay rise, since they clearly have next to nothing in common with the overwhelming majority of the public.
Media Guido @MediaGuido Since Chris Smith - ex-Labour MP - became ASA chairman it has become a channel for perpetually outraged politically correct whiners.
"In Sherwood, with a Conservative majority of 214, the party does not reveal its membership. But it took £730 from members’ subscriptions last year – which at £25 a head works out at fewer than 30 members. The chairman wrote: “Expenditure over income during 2012 was significant and is clearly unsustainable in the long term.”
At this rate Cameron's legacy will be the man who blew the unloseable election and who killed the Tory Party on the ground. But he had some nice photoshoots
Where do you get the data, tim? I used to know but I can't see it on the Electoral Commission site. Does Broxtowe Conservatives have any members left? I know the local paper has been trying for weeks to find a local Tory willing to write an article.
Do you think you could possibly start off any BROXTOWE related post in future in CAPITAL LETTERS. That way everyone will know you are smearing either Anna Soubry or Broxtowe Conservatives as a whole.
It didn't take you long to start smearing post the nomination did it.
"In Sherwood, with a Conservative majority of 214, the party does not reveal its membership. But it took £730 from members’ subscriptions last year – which at £25 a head works out at fewer than 30 members. The chairman wrote: “Expenditure over income during 2012 was significant and is clearly unsustainable in the long term.”
At this rate Cameron's legacy will be the man who blew the unloseable election and who killed the Tory Party on the ground. But he had some nice photoshoots
Where do you get the data, tim? I used to know but I can't see it on the Electoral Commission site. Does Broxtowe Conservatives have any members left? I know the local paper has been trying for weeks to find a local Tory willing to write an article.
If Carswell is right and Tory membership is about 100,000 that means about 150 members per constituency on average. But most of them are in the south of England so the Broxtowe party may be struggling to reach 100, most of whom probably won't be active (I guess).
"In Sherwood, with a Conservative majority of 214, the party does not reveal its membership. But it took £730 from members’ subscriptions last year – which at £25 a head works out at fewer than 30 members. The chairman wrote: “Expenditure over income during 2012 was significant and is clearly unsustainable in the long term.”
At this rate Cameron's legacy will be the man who blew the unloseable election and who killed the Tory Party on the ground. But he had some nice photoshoots
Where do you get the data, tim? I used to know but I can't see it on the Electoral Commission site. Does Broxtowe Conservatives have any members left? I know the local paper has been trying for weeks to find a local Tory willing to write an article.
Do you think you could possibly start off any BROXTOWE related post in future in CAPITAL LETTERS. That way everyone will know you are smearing either Anna Soubry or Broxtowe Conservatives as a whole.
It didn't take you long to start smearing post the nomination did it.
Not a fan of hers as PBers know, but the *oh she's crap at responding to her constituents so I'm still here for them' schtick did irritate me enough to email her.
Thanks for putting me in my place ;-) I wasn't aware of this. I don't think it was dropped because he thought it should be 0%, but perhaps because he is politically weak, and couldn't force it past his backbenchers.
- it's still a bit much to claim that you can't possibly criticise or formulate policies that impact on the poorer in society unless you give everything to the poor.
True, but she can't criticise him for not giving all his worldly possessions away, which was raised at the top of the article (the inconvenient bits she was referring to was the passage raised in the radio interview).
On that basis why not throw all those in westminster out the door accepting their £10,000 10% pay rise, since they clearly have next to nothing in common with the overwhelming majority of the public.
I don't think MPs pay should rise by 10%.. it should be linked to workers wages. If you are suggesting throwing them out of office (wasn't too sure on your wording), I'd be up for that ;-)
Disloyal challenges to the leader don't come any clearer than that.
When Andy Burnham starts spouting nonsense about the NHS designed quite obviously as a naked appeal to activists, it's pretty clear something is going on:
It was a mistake, he also admitted, for the last Labour government to allow the private sector into the NHS.
"Once the market takes a hold on the system it will destroy what's precious about it. We had been building a policy that had been saying it doesn't matter who provides healthcare as long as it's free at the point of delivery. But I'm saying it does matter."
Porn filters should be Parents.. with some authority and responsibilty for their children..The State is not a parent..look after your own children
Child porn is another matter, I am in favour of that being filtered. But I do realise it is a slippery slope.
Child porn is already blocked by ISPs.
"Currently in the UK, all the major ISPs use the child pornography blocklist curated by the Internet Watch Foundation (IWF). A BT-developed system called Cleanfeed checks IP addresses against the list and blocks users from accessing their content."
I couldn't comment on how much Cam gives to charity.. maybe he does -- I hope so, to some deserving causes.
I guarantee you he does not only because his whole 'Big Society' PR made certain of it but because all political leaders and likely most of their front bench/shadow cabinet do so since they are very public figures.
The cynic in me thinks that MPs made that a PR necessity after the expenses scandal calamity, but there are also unquestionably those who are advocates for various charities and put their case forward whenever they can. That would include MPs from all parties lest you be in any doubt.
"Deserving" is very much in the eye of the beholder but you would have to be pretty far gone not to appreciate that most charities aims and giving selflessly to them is something to be applauded. Cammie tried to make it a centrepoint of his "Big Society" after all. It is not the fault of charities that his PR around it was so inept.
Whats the source for FTs story about the deficit? I'm super-cheap and don't have a subscription.
Never mind, I'm an idiot. They are talking about the trade deficit.
You can get about 10 free articles from the FT a month if you register - no credit card required. I never go over my limit and most of their blogs are free access anyway.
"Deserving" is very much in the eye of the beholder but you would have to be pretty far gone not to appreciate that most charities aims and giving selflessly to them is something to be applauded. Cammie tried to make it a centrepoint of his "Big Society" after all. It is not the fault of charities that his PR around it was so inept.
Some charities are more deserving than other... for example.
You can get about 10 free articles from the FT a month if you register - no credit card required. I never go over my limit and most of their blogs are free access anyway.
Whats the source for FTs story about the deficit? I'm super-cheap and don't have a subscription.
Never mind, I'm an idiot. They are talking about the trade deficit.
You can get about 10 free articles from the FT a month if you register - no credit card required. I never go over my limit and most of their blogs are free access anyway.
You can bypass the FT filter if you arrive via Google. Use the article title for the search term.
Whats the source for FTs story about the deficit? I'm super-cheap and don't have a subscription.
Never mind, I'm an idiot. They are talking about the trade deficit.
You can get about 10 free articles from the FT a month if you register - no credit card required. I never go over my limit and most of their blogs are free access anyway.
You can bypass the FT filter if you arrive via Google. Use the article title for the search term.
I do that in emergencies! Like resetting your cookies to get access to the DT. I'd pay for their blogs alone if they didn't trickle their main paper news during the day.
The Times needs to catch up here - they have a hard copy paper that lives online and its pretty much set at 10pm the day before. Their opinion section is pathetic in comparison to the Telegraph.
"Deserving" is very much in the eye of the beholder but you would have to be pretty far gone not to appreciate that most charities aims and giving selflessly to them is something to be applauded. Cammie tried to make it a centrepoint of his "Big Society" after all. It is not the fault of charities that his PR around it was so inept.
Some charities are more deserving than other... for example.
The bigger problem some charities have is that some can take in tens of millions so can hardly be run like an overgrown jumble sale. There is a regulator and a process that theoretically at least mitigates problems. Sadly we know all too well from recent history that regulators are sometimes found wanting if they aren't given teeth and appropriate sanctions.
Richard Conway @richard_conway Greg Dyke says fans and players should be spared summer heat of Qatar 2022. Fifa expected to make switch to winter in October.
Richard Conway @richard_conway Greg Dyke says fans and players should be spared summer heat of Qatar 2022. Fifa expected to make switch to winter in October.
I want to know why we never hold the world cup in a Northern European winter. Why pander to all those people from hot countries?
Richard Conway @richard_conway Greg Dyke says fans and players should be spared summer heat of Qatar 2022. Fifa expected to make switch to winter in October.
I want to know why we never hold the world cup in a Northern European winter. Why pander to all those people from hot countries?
You can cycle through most of the papers having free trials.
If everyone did it they wouldn't make any money.
Paywalls are no panacea regardless of how they are enforced. The Mail survives without one with it's celeb gossip angle so it will be intriguing to see if the Sun's move will make Dacre think again. I tend to think not, at least not for a while yet.
"In Sherwood, with a Conservative majority of 214, the party does not reveal its membership. But it took £730 from members’ subscriptions last year – which at £25 a head works out at fewer than 30 members. The chairman wrote: “Expenditure over income during 2012 was significant and is clearly unsustainable in the long term.”
At this rate Cameron's legacy will be the man who blew the unloseable election and who killed the Tory Party on the ground. But he had some nice photoshoots
Where do you get the data, tim? I used to know but I can't see it on the Electoral Commission site. Does Broxtowe Conservatives have any members left? I know the local paper has been trying for weeks to find a local Tory willing to write an article.
Do you think you could possibly start off any BROXTOWE related post in future in CAPITAL LETTERS. That way everyone will know you are smearing either Anna Soubry or Broxtowe Conservatives as a whole.
It didn't take you long to start smearing post the nomination did it.
How has he smeared anyone ? The Conservatives' haemorrhage of members is well known. Openly questioned by Lord Ashcroft and more or less confirmed by Carswell who was probably softening up the media before the official figures finally emerge.
Unless, you are saying Nick made up the local papers attempt to obtain an article.
Where was Anna Soubry mentioned ? You seem to be a bit touchy ! Is everything OK ?
I'm a bit old-fashioned with newspapers, I like reading the paper copies. But I'd be amazed if they last much longer, unfortunately.
Without using an RSS feed [I use the defunct Google sidebar] and Twitter - I'd miss 80% of the articles I'd read on paper. The newspapers have terrible navigation so unless I'm pointed to stuff, I'd never see it.
Richard Conway @richard_conway Greg Dyke says fans and players should be spared summer heat of Qatar 2022. Fifa expected to make switch to winter in October.
I want to know why we never hold the world cup in a Northern European winter. Why pander to all those people from hot countries?
Probably to do with domestic league schedules.
Surely it would be worth rearranging the schedules a bit to make the Brazilians play in manchester in November. Or Newcastle in February.
Disloyal challenges to the leader don't come any clearer than that.
Quite right. And Burnham's hubris is staggering:
"I'm saying to Ed [Miliband], I will give you an NHS policy that is one nation to its core, people will say that's what one nation means, all people covered for all of their care needs in a system that is based on the values of the NHS.
What better way for Labour to say it's relevant to the 21st century than to bring forward a policy as bold in this century of the ageing society as the NHS was in the last?
That's the way that Ed Miliband wins, by having policies that just knock the others off the pitch basically. And, that's what I want to give him."
Burnham is portraying himself as the next Atlee and suggesting that he can delivery health policies better than Ed can do leadership. Breathtaking arrogance! The man's clearly out of control. Ed should have sacked him last month when he had the perfect excuse. Although the timing now wouldn't be ideal, I'd be inclined to sack him anyway.
Richard Conway @richard_conway Greg Dyke says fans and players should be spared summer heat of Qatar 2022. Fifa expected to make switch to winter in October.
I want to know why we never hold the world cup in a Northern European winter. Why pander to all those people from hot countries?
So Stephen Fry doesn't notice whilst getting all upset about the Winter Olympics in Russia.
I've had a spirited twtter discussion with Mr Coxall passim and Hugo Rifkind.
Martin's parting shot was apparently sober. I've edited it for family blog reasons. I disagreed with Stephen Fry attempting to force a boycott of the Winter Olympics at zero personal cost to himself.
Leandro Kill @Grabcocque @PlatoSays@hugorifkind You know what, f^^k you. No really. Until you stop quacking like a nasty f^^king homophobe, f^^k you.
Disloyal challenges to the leader don't come any clearer than that.
Quite right. And Burnham's hubris is staggering:
"I'm saying to Ed [Miliband], I will give you an NHS policy that is one nation to its core, people will say that's what one nation means, all people covered for all of their care needs in a system that is based on the values of the NHS.
What better way for Labour to say it's relevant to the 21st century than to bring forward a policy as bold in this century of the ageing society as the NHS was in the last?
That's the way that Ed Miliband wins, by having policies that just knock the others off the pitch basically. And, that's what I want to give him."
Burnham is portraying himself as the next Atlee and suggesting that he can delivery health policies better than Ed can do leadership. Breathtaking arrogance! The man's clearly out of control. Ed should have sacked him last month when he had the perfect excuse. Although the timing now wouldn't be ideal, I'd be inclined to sack him anyway.
Golly - that's a quote?!
Wow. Gloves off from possibly the bloke with most baggage but aspirations.
For the first time since he acquired it, I'm starting to fear for Ed Miliband's leadership. Burnham clearly thinks he could do a far, far better job and has no compunction about saying so. Moreover, we've had various Labour pygmies popping up to give Ed 'advice' now that his poll leads are in retreat. Ed desperately needs shore up the support of his base. He needs to make that announcement about rail nationalization soon!
On topic: not that anyone is likely to care but as I've said before, I think the greater concentration of the Lib Dem vote makes it less likely they will press for (pure) PR in any future coalition negotiations.
Richard Conway @richard_conway Greg Dyke says fans and players should be spared summer heat of Qatar 2022. Fifa expected to make switch to winter in October.
Of course, if Qatar had said in the first place that they were going to hold it in winter, they would not have been awarded the WC at all.
Ed Miliband has created a growing Leadership and policy vacuum within his party. But this shouldn't be a surprise to anyone after the way he dithered over putting together the last Labour manifesto when put in charge of it by Gordon Brown.
For the first time since he acquired it, I'm starting to fear for Ed Miliband's leadership. Burnham clearly thinks he could do a far, far better job and has no compunction about saying so. Moreover, we've had various Labour pygmies popping up to give Ed 'advice' now that his poll leads are in retreat. Ed desperately needs shore up the support of his base. He needs to make that announcement about rail nationalization soon!
It'll probably become politically incorrect to read paper rags in the future in the same way that having more than one towel or shampoo bottle in a hotel is frowned upon.
Ed Miliband has created a growing Leadership and policy vacuum within his party.
It's actually Balls who who bears the biggest responsibility. Labour and Miliband were mesmerized by his voodoo prophecies. You remember the stuff - 'killed growth', 'return to 1930s-style depression' and so forth. It sounds laughable now, but the Left were taken in by this flim-flam and assumed all they needed to do was sit and wait. Now Osborne has been vindicated, Balls is a shrunken figure and Labour have nothing left to say. Sadly, that's what happens when you put your faith in hustlers and pseudo-intellectuals.
Well they have only themselves to blame. Even on here you have Tories who think a tweet by an excitable hack matters more than building a mass movement.
I really am looking forward to the general election. In a lot of marginals we are absolutely killing the Tories right now.
Ed Miliband appears to have completely disappeared of the political radar since the last PMQ's before Parliament went into summer recess, not seen even a holiday snap or a postcard to the media to remind us of him. But more importantly, Ed doesn't even appear to have left a note with some instructions for an organised summer media offensive for the rest of his Shadow Cabinet team to be getting on with before he left. More worryingly, this is not the behaviour of a politician who aspires to be a Prime Minister, more like one who already thinks he got the top job as Leader of his party, and now cannot be shifted unless he wants to go.
Ed Miliband has created a growing Leadership and policy vacuum within his party.
It's actually Balls who who bears the biggest responsibility. Labour and Miliband were mesmerized by his voodoo prophecies. You remember the stuff - 'killed growth', 'return to 1930s-style depression' and so forth. It sounds laughable now, but the Left were taken in by this flim-flam and assumed all they needed to do was sit and wait. Now Osborne has been vindicated, Balls is a shrunken figure and Labour have nothing left to say. Sadly, that's what happens when you put your faith in hustlers and pseudo-intellectuals.
On topic: not that anyone is likely to care but as I've said before, I think the greater concentration of the Lib Dem vote makes it less likely they will press for (pure) PR in any future coalition negotiations.
In the event of a hung parliament, I'd expect Labour/Conservatives to govern as minority rather than make an arrangement with the LDs.
Leadership's don't leave a vacuum even when they go away for their holidays, they leave someone in charge. Cameron had Hague and Osborne to fill that role if required, Ed Miliband has no one. But, the now official PM/Party Leader holiday snap posed for the media in return for being left alone on the rest of their holiday does indicate the the media are interested enough to turn up. What is worse, that Ed Miliband didn't bother, or that the media don't seem to even care.
On topic: not that anyone is likely to care but as I've said before, I think the greater concentration of the Lib Dem vote makes it less likely they will press for (pure) PR in any future coalition negotiations.
In the event of a hung parliament, I'd expect Labour/Conservatives to govern as minority rather than make an arrangement with the LDs.
Would the LDs make an informal agreement to guarantee supply for such a government?
On topic: not that anyone is likely to care but as I've said before, I think the greater concentration of the Lib Dem vote makes it less likely they will press for (pure) PR in any future coalition negotiations.
In the event of a hung parliament, I'd expect Labour/Conservatives to govern as minority rather than make an arrangement with the LDs.
Would the LDs make an informal agreement to guarantee supply for such a government?
They'd just want to avoid another election. No need for an agreement.
Yes, there are a few things like that (classic Jessica Mitford faux pas was to ask if she could help lay the table). There's an American email circular for angry pensioners denouncing the idea that pensions are an entitlement. The rest is standard stuff - why do we give millions to illegal immigrants instead of pensioners, etc. - but I've never understood why the "entitlement" description winds them up. It's sent on blithely by the usual green ink types over here without apparently studying it in detail. I've tried replying "Actually I do think pensions should be an entitlement - do you not agree?" but never had a reply that addresses it.
Comments
There was a lively debate on the previous thread about whether there was or was not a house price bubble in progress. During this debate various indices were banded about. The problem with this is that the indices capture the info at different times as follows
1) You look at houses online (Rightmove index)
2) You go into an estate agents and mooch around (RICS survey)
3) You see a house, arrange a mortgage and put an offer in (Halifax and Nationwide indices)
4) The offer is accepted, you exchange and get the keys (Bank of England mortgage figures)
5) The solicitor registers the sale (Land Registry)
From beginning to end this takes six to eight months. So if a house price boom started in May, you'd see it in the June Rightmove index and RICS survey, then in the July/August Halifax and Nationwide indices, then in the Sept/Oct BOE figures, then in the Nov/Dec/Jan Land Registry index
We can say that the data we have is consistent with a HPB starting in May, but we won't know for sure until Xmas and (because one swallow doesn't make a summer), not even then. For a definitive answer you'll have to wait until May 2014: at which point it'll be too late...:-)
The latest (Jun/Jul) reports are given below for your perusal
* Rightmove (http://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/files/2013/07/july-2013.pdf )
* RICS (http://www.rics.org/uk/knowledge/market-analysis/uk-residential-market-survey/rics-residential-market-survey-june-2013/ )
* Halifax (http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/pdfs/halifax/2013/060813_HPI.pdf )
* Nationwide (http://www.nationwide.co.uk/NR/rdonlyres/FBBFE94A-DA8F-44E9-9EF7-62103BDC9DB7/0/Jul_2013.pdf )
* Land Registry (http://www.landregistry.gov.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0011/49529/HPIReport20130723.pdf )
ONS and Academetrics also publish indices, but I've ignored them because they're not tied to a specific concept nor time.
Who the F**k is Derek Laud, and why would anyone regard his opinion.. Its like getting a quote from one of the Downing St cleaners..desperation time..
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dG5wTXROamNqeE1jWjY5TUxwVFdDMlE#gid=0
Gordon Brown's percentage in Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath was the 7th highest Labour share.
Problem is if you collate over a period large enough to have a significant number of results then you run the danger of including variances in popularity that could occur in that period. Opinion can and sometimes does shift markedly in short(ish) spaces of time as well as the more gradual trends. Granted, you'll catch a shift if it is more permanent.
I can't see too many people seriously questioning that the overall picture is basically what we see here as it's pretty much backed up by the big tests like the locals in May.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
I have in the past posted accumulative results for 6 or more month's by elections on a party % basis and will probably do so again at the end of the year . The sample will then be large enough to give a reasonable estimate of performance but because of the differing years last fought swings are not meannigful .
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dp6R1YSw_V0
OK, the Lib Dems also have their votes spread out but they are the third party.
How many seats did Labour end up third as opposed to the Tories ?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-23641710
“It’s ridiculous. She has made countless anti-English comments over the last 10 years. She’s no friend of the English people.”
"The Poles asked for it from 1919 onwards. It was Britain and France who made it a world war, not Hitler."
"The Nuremberg trials were a farce. They were show trials without an ounce of legitimacy."
"The Africans never had it so good as when Britain governed their colonies there… We owe Africa nothing whatsoever. It owes us eternal gratitude for lifting it out of barbarism."
It would not matter when the previous elections took place.
Again, it would not satisfy the purists but who cares ? Andrea / Mark / Andy, is there a place where these results are given ?
She was definitely qualified to be a Tory candidate. Or, a Republican one. Michele Bachmann, you do sound competent by comparison.
Andy Burnham in the Guardian - Labour must shout louder or risk election defeat, warns Andy Burnham
'Shadow health secretary says time is running out for coherent
Labour challenge to the coalition'
"Labour's leadership must put its cards on the table before next spring and produce a set of policies which define the party or risk defeat at the next general election, the shadow health secretary, Andy Burnham, has warned.
In a candid interview with the Guardian, Burnham voiced concern that time is running out to mount a coherent challenge to the coalition. The party under Ed Miliband still had time to present a distinctive economic alternative, but he warned that waiting longer would mean that the window will be closed.
"I think there's definitely a need to shout louder, and speak in a way that captures how people are feeling and thinking. There's definitely a need to put our cards on the table," he said.
Asked how long that window was he replied not "much beyond next spring"."
See for yourself at 22.20
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b038bsqn/Newsnight_08_08_2013/
http://www.regionaltopup.co.uk/2010/05/12/press-release-nearly-1million-in-lost-deposits/
The number of lost deposits in 2010 under that rule would have been as follows:
Lab: 105
LD: 63
Con: 47
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10231605/Grant-Shapps-made-Tory-party-co-chairman-to-revive-partys-grassroots.html
It has no business being in the top 50.
Interesting no mention of Cams commitment to the aid budget being a certain percentage of GDP despite opponents in his own party. But I suppose that is other peoples money so it doesn't count.
Anyway, it's a bit hypocritical to say this about Cam unless the author herself has sold all her worldly possessions and given the proceeds to the poor. How many of us would really do that? Very few I'd imagine.
Seats in top 23 lowest Lab majorities over Con with no PPC yet:
Great Grimsby
Birmingham Edgbaston
Wakefield
Plymouth Moor View
Gedling
Eltham
Walsall South
Instead they have already selected in
Birmingham Erdington
Birmingham Northfield
Westminster North
Gower
Vale of Clywd
Delyn
Harrow West
So it seems it’s a sign of change of strategy in Birmingham.
I guess Walsall South and Wakefield being left behind is because they decided to concentrate on next door seat.
Gedling is moving away from them. So it can make sense
I guess they decided to include some Welsh seats but I am not sure on the logic behind Delyn and Vale of Clwyd before Clywd South. They all look pretty much the same (even if in 2011 Welsh Assembly VoC was the one with highest majority between the 3). So maybe it was a random choice.
I am not sure why they left Great Grimsby behind. I am sure AnotherRichard would disagree on this choice.
Why Harrow West before Eltham? HW even voted for Ken as mayor in 2012.
Westminster North is an obvious inclusion.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dFQxMldxYWRwZHhtRHllUU43M3N0UGc#gid=0
It would have been only 6 under the present rule.
Useless fact: the result in Bournemouth West was delayed until the next day, most probably because Labour were so close to saving their deposit with 12.48%. (I can't imagine a returning officer these days delaying a result for so long for this reason).
Both discipline and party unity is fast breaking down within the Labour ranks in the run up the Labour Conference. Mudie was a backbencher, but Burnham is a member of the Shadow Cabinet, and he just delivered an ultimatum with a clear dead line to Ed Miliband to get a grip and set out some Labour policies. Miliband still hasn't replaced Watson and is nowhere to be seen.
I have 23 as well.
Not sure that's a very good way as what happens if people give more?
- it's still a bit much to claim that you can't possibly criticise or formulate policies that impact on the poorer in society unless you give everything to the poor.
On that basis why not throw all those in westminster out the door accepting their £10,000 10% pay rise, since they clearly have next to nothing in common with the overwhelming majority of the public.
1983:
Total votes: 29,907,450
Labour votes: 8,458,316
Labour share: 28.28%
2010:
Total votes: 29,017,559
Labour votes: 8,609,527
Labour share: 29.67%
Media Guido @MediaGuido
Since Chris Smith - ex-Labour MP - became ASA chairman it has become a channel for perpetually outraged politically correct whiners.
Do you think you could possibly start off any BROXTOWE related post in future in CAPITAL LETTERS. That way everyone will know you are smearing either Anna Soubry or Broxtowe Conservatives as a whole.
It didn't take you long to start smearing post the nomination did it.
http://tomorrowspaperstoday.com/
Can you explain your comment "Says it all really" about the Panda tweet feed as I have no idea what the hell you are talking about.
What does it say?
I know politics is a grubby business, but really.
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/environment/shitloads-of-pandas-everywhere-by-2084-2013080978277
Never mind, I'm an idiot. They are talking about the trade deficit.
When Andy Burnham starts spouting nonsense about the NHS designed quite obviously as a naked appeal to activists, it's pretty clear something is going on:
It was a mistake, he also admitted, for the last Labour government to allow the private sector into the NHS.
"Once the market takes a hold on the system it will destroy what's precious about it. We had been building a policy that had been saying it doesn't matter who provides healthcare as long as it's free at the point of delivery. But I'm saying it does matter."
"Currently in the UK, all the major ISPs use the child pornography blocklist curated by the Internet Watch Foundation (IWF). A BT-developed system called Cleanfeed checks IP addresses against the list and blocks users from accessing their content."
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/04/02/eu_filtering_framework/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cleanfeed_(content_blocking_system)#United_Kingdom
The cynic in me thinks that MPs made that a PR necessity after the expenses scandal calamity, but there are also unquestionably those who are advocates for various charities and put their case forward whenever they can. That would include MPs from all parties lest you be in any doubt.
"Deserving" is very much in the eye of the beholder but you would have to be pretty far gone not to appreciate that most charities aims and giving selflessly to them is something to be applauded. Cammie tried to make it a centrepoint of his "Big Society" after all. It is not the fault of charities that his PR around it was so inept.
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/lord-lawsons-climatechange-think-tank-risks-being-dismantled-after-complaint-it-persistently-misled-public-8659314.html
Surely you couldn't disagree with that ;-)
If everyone did it they wouldn't make any money.
The Times needs to catch up here - they have a hard copy paper that lives online and its pretty much set at 10pm the day before. Their opinion section is pathetic in comparison to the Telegraph.
The bigger problem some charities have is that some can take in tens of millions so can hardly be run like an overgrown jumble sale. There is a regulator and a process that theoretically at least mitigates problems. Sadly we know all too well from recent history that regulators are sometimes found wanting if they aren't given teeth and appropriate sanctions.
Richard Conway @richard_conway
Greg Dyke says fans and players should be spared summer heat of Qatar 2022. Fifa expected to make switch to winter in October.
@stephenpollard: Fantastic @TheSunNewspaper story on Harriet Harman's hypocrisy. http://t.co/lXWy8qhKCq
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2388384/EU-flag-set-replace-royal-crest-British-birth-certificates-despite-ministers-bid-block-move.html
As Doug Alexander reminds us " we got 1983 share of the votes and 1992 share of the seats"
Unless, you are saying Nick made up the local papers attempt to obtain an article.
Where was Anna Soubry mentioned ? You seem to be a bit touchy ! Is everything OK ?
"I'm saying to Ed [Miliband], I will give you an NHS policy that is one nation to its core, people will say that's what one nation means, all people covered for all of their care needs in a system that is based on the values of the NHS.
What better way for Labour to say it's relevant to the 21st century than to bring forward a policy as bold in this century of the ageing society as the NHS was in the last?
That's the way that Ed Miliband wins, by having policies that just knock the others off the pitch basically. And, that's what I want to give him."
Burnham is portraying himself as the next Atlee and suggesting that he can delivery health policies better than Ed can do leadership. Breathtaking arrogance! The man's clearly out of control. Ed should have sacked him last month when he had the perfect excuse. Although the timing now wouldn't be ideal, I'd be inclined to sack him anyway.
I've had a spirited twtter discussion with Mr Coxall passim and Hugo Rifkind.
Martin's parting shot was apparently sober. I've edited it for family blog reasons. I disagreed with Stephen Fry attempting to force a boycott of the Winter Olympics at zero personal cost to himself.
Leandro Kill @Grabcocque
@PlatoSays @hugorifkind You know what, f^^k you. No really. Until you stop quacking like a nasty f^^king homophobe, f^^k you.
Wow. Gloves off from possibly the bloke with most baggage but aspirations.
1) Average reader of a printed newspaper spends 46 minutes per day reading it.
2) Average web user clicking on a newspaper website spends 66 seconds per day on it.
3) 85% of newspaper industry advertising revenue still comes from adverts on paper.
Of course 1) and 2) explain 3) !!!!!!!!
@eljmayes
The Sun tomorrow brilliantly has the headline "HARRIBET HARMAN" to compliment their Harman hypocrisy story.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-sussex-23640623
If UKIP membership is more than 50% of Tory at next election Cameron's chances of winning would be very low indeed IMO.
It will after the general election. The Tories just don't seem to have the man power to fight the ground war.
It's difficult to tell but I reckon if the 2011 - 2013 membership changes were to continue UKIP would be bigger by around 2016/7?
Well they have only themselves to blame. Even on here you have Tories who think a tweet by an excitable hack matters more than building a mass movement.
I really am looking forward to the general election. In a lot of marginals we are absolutely killing the Tories right now.
http://www.roguetax.com/
Maybe it's a cultural thing...