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The money's going on a CON majority on Betfair GE2015 outcome marker
Was 20% chance 2 wks ago – now 24.4%
See table pic.twitter.com/eMfzD6NQ0x

Read the full story here

Anorak

First again? My last first comment vanished...

No surprise electoral calculus differs from the punters' views. One is the view *now*, and the other the prediction for 2015.

In much the same way financial indices only weakly reflect current economic conditions, but rather reflect investors' views on performance over the next several years.

dr_spyn

So tell me Luciana, did you discuss zero hours contracts at The Co-Op's Funeral Care?

http://www.lucianaberger.com/2013/07/meeting-chartered-institute-of-personnel-and-development-about-zero-hours-contracts/

POLABCO-0PWAS.

Ishmael_X

test2

Morris_Dancer

Good afternoon, everyone.

Just returned to the computer to discover there's some sort of temporal anomaly affecting pb.com. Has Mr. Smithson been posting from inside the event horizon of a black hole?

CarlottaVance

NOC 4%, Lab May 84%......yeeeeees, as Jeremy Paxman might say.....in any case as Mr Navabi observed on the previous thread, these are measurements of two different things - what voters say they would do tomorrow....and what punters think they will do in 20 months.....

'Are you ready for your Close Up, Mr Miliband?'

Morris_Dancer

Fry wants us to say "Nyet" to Russia:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-23603870

It's further off, but I wonder if his views are the same regarding Qatar hosting the World Cup...

RichardNabavi

As I pointed out on the previous thread, the Electoral Calculus and Betfair Con Maj probabilities relate to different things and can't be directly compared.

The Electoral Calculus 3% is an estimate of what Nate Silver would call a 'NowCast', i.e. the probability of Con Maj if the opinion polls were as they are today AND there really was an election scheduled for tomorrow.

The Betfair 24% is the implied probability of Con Maj for 20 months' time, quite correctly taking account of the fact that, at the very least, things tend to change in politics.

As Nick Sparrow, father of modern polling, puts it in his article on the previous thread: "Whatever the polls presently say, come the real election expect things to be rather different". You need to factor that it in to your betting.

Anorak

Morris_Dancer said:

Fry wants us to say "Nyet" to Russia:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-23603870

It's further off, but I wonder if his views are the same regarding Qatar hosting the World Cup...

If ever you needed proof that the World Cup selection process was is corrupt, you need look no further than Russia and Qatar winning 2018 and 2022.

AlastairMeeks

I'll place bets on NOMAJ at 24/1 with anyone who is prepared to lay at that price, to any stakes.

MikeSmithson

@RichardNabavi

There does seem to be rather a lot of wishful thinking on the blue side.

Where are the voters going to come from who'll give the Tories the 7/8% lead required for a majority?

Sure things can change and the big hope for the Tories is that 2010 LDs in the marginals will return to their allegiance. Maybe. Maybe not but a 24% chance is just too high based on what we know at the moment.

TGOHF

Con maj is the long shot of the 3 - are the odds interesting at present ?

Not so much - the least interesting of the 3 IMHO. Just like LD maj prices are uninteresting at present.

But more interestingly - NOM and Lab maj prices have changed - from Lab maj being favourite to NOM being favourite - going against electoral calculus - NOM now clear favourite.

The betfair most seats market has also veered about with Labour moving from 1.5 to 1.8.

Until Con most seats becomes the firm favourite the Con maj price is not going to move a lot.

MikeSmithson

Ever so generous antifrank!

antifrank said:

I'll place bets on NOMAJ at 24/1 with anyone who is prepared to lay at that price, to any stakes.

Grandiose

RichardNabavi said:

As I pointed out on the previous thread, the Electoral Calculus and Betfair Con Maj probabilities relate to different things and can't be directly compared.

The Electoral Calculus 3% is an estimate of what Nate Silver would call a 'NowCast', i.e. the probability of Con Maj if the opinion polls were as they are today AND there really was an election scheduled for tomorrow.

The Betfair 24% is the implied probability of Con Maj for 20 months' time, quite correctly taking account of the fact that, at the very least, things tend to change in politics.

As Nick Sparrow, father of modern polling, puts it in his article on the previous thread: "Whatever the polls presently say, come the real election expect things to be rather different". You need to factor that it in to your betting.

I was going to say this, only to find Richard had beaten me to it.

There's a world of difference.

Also "Nowcast" is a very useful word.

MarkSenior

MikeSmithson said:

Ever so generous antifrank!

antifrank said:

I'll place bets on NOMAJ at 24/1 with anyone who is prepared to lay at that price, to any stakes.

Perhaps he means 2.4/1

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Anorak, I find it hard to think of a country better suited to hosting the World Cup than Qatar. Footballers and fans are renowned for their teetotal preferences, their loathing of temperatures outside the 35-50C range, their desire to remain 100% covered up at all times, and their utter heterosexuality.

Of course, if any of them drank alcohol or disliked the sweltering temperatures of a desert summer or were homosexual that might be an issue, but we all know that isn't the case.

carl

Tory Majority eh? Let's try to put their task into perspective.

Generously assume their 2015 ceiling is 37% (no-one seriously expects them to exceed 2010, do they?)

For a majority, Labour would need about 38%, roughly where they are polling now.

To win most seats, Labour would need about 35%

To merely deprive the Tories of a majority, Labour would need about 30%, as we know.

And that's IF the Tories equal their 2010 share, when so much was going for them. Don't fancy their chances!

AlastairMeeks

MikeSmithson said:

Ever so generous antifrank!

antifrank said:

I'll place bets on NOMAJ at 24/1 with anyone who is prepared to lay at that price, to any stakes.

Ah, I misread the Electoral Calculus table. I shall have to settle for 13/2. That will do me too.

Ishmael_X

BBC: Godfrey Bloom says he 'sincerely regrets any genuine offence' caused by his use of term 'Bongo Bongo Land'.

That 'genuine' is masterly.

JackW

Of some interest to PBers but it's worthy of note that :

Ed Miliband will never be Prime Minister.

carl

Three things will decide 2015, I reckon.

1) How the anti-Tory dynamic plays out amongst 2010 Libs and Labs.

2) How much of the post-2010 boost in support Labour can hold on to.

3) How many votes UKIP can peel away from the Tories.

Not much there working in the Tories favour, even if GDP growth starts soaring towards 1.6% and unemployment is a mere 6%.

TGOHF

David Miliband writes for the Staggers

http://www.newstatesman.com/international-politics/2013/08/david-miliband-decade-disorder

CarlottaVance

“Labour Assembly Against Austerity” conference announced"

http://labourlist.org/2013/08/labour-assembly-against-austerity-conference-announced/

Curiously, the speaker list does not include our own dear 'there have been no cuts' tim.....

anotherDave

carl said:

Three things will decide 2015, I reckon.

1) How the anti-Tory dynamic plays out amongst 2010 Libs and Labs.

2) How much of the post-2010 boost in support Labour can hold on to.

3) How many votes UKIP can peel away from the Tories.

Not much there working in the Tories favour, even if GDP growth starts soaring towards 1.6% and unemployment is a mere 6%.

4) How many votes UKIP can peel away from Labour.

Bond_James_Bond

MarkSenior said:

With regard to Callaghan and Thatcher the decision was not so clear cut and my opinion differs with yours and was supported by the opinion polls of the time .

Eh? My opinion is that Thatcher was the better candidate and would win. She won.

The opinion polls suggested Callaghan would win, and he lost.

Hence the folly of crowds.

Take sport as a parallel application of what I shall call the Obvious Favourite Principle. If you asked a random sample of the UK public in 1990 if England were going to beat Germany in the World Cup semis; and if you asked a panel of veteran players, who'd played both, if England were going to win; - whose forecast would you trust more?

Likewise, if you asked Basil Brush in July 2013 who was going to win this year's Wimbledon final, and if you asked John McEnroe who was going to win this year's Wimbledon final, whose judgment would you back?

It's the same thing. The margin can be narrow, but in every case, it is and was plain who the lightweight was.

TGOHF

JackW said:

Of some interest to PBers but it's worthy of note that :

Ed Miliband will never be Prime Minister.

Betfair Next PM market

Ed Miliband 1.81

GIN1138

Who know's what will happen to the polls when Cameron declares war on Spain!!!!!! :O

Let's ask JackW what the effect may be. He was around for the Armada afterall....

RichardNabavi

MikeSmithson said:

@RichardNabavi

There does seem to be rather a lot of wishful thinking on the blue side.

Where are the voters going to come from who'll give the Tories the 7/8% lead required for a majority?

Sure things can change and the big hope for the Tories is that 2010 LDs in the marginals will return to their allegiance. Maybe. Maybe not but a 24% chance is just too high based on what we know at the moment.

Repeating myself for the second time:
----------
As a hypothetical example, you could construct a pretty big overall swingback out of the following changes (compared with what people are telling pollsters today):

Current Lab -> Con: 1%
Current Lab->LD: 4%
Current Lab->Won't vote: 2%
Current LD->Con: 0.5%
Current Don't Know/Won't vote -> Con: 2%
Current UKIP -> Con: 4%

i.e. it doesn't have to be the exact same people crossing over to give the overall effect of a significant swing.

On the current UKPR polling average (32/38/10/12) the above shifts would give:

Con 39.5
Lab 31
LD 13.5
UKIP 8
----------

Now, I'm not saying that, or anything like it, will necessarily happen, but it simply isn't the case that there is no answer to the question of where the voters might come from to give the Tories a majority. There are a wide range of scenarios to which one can attach different probability estimates. Some of those scenarios produce a Tory majority, some a Labour majority, and some another hung parliament.

To assess the net probability in order to judge the odds, you need to do four things:

1) Look at today's polling, and recent polling trends
2) Consider the historical record of the standard deviation of changes to the polling over 20+ months (i.e. how frequently do parties' poll shares shift by, say, 5 points over 20 months?)
3) Use your judgement on the parties' strategic position, and the likely change in the economy, to try to assess the likely direction of polling changes (for example, starting from here, which is more likely: a swing to Labour, or a swing to the Conservatives)?
4) Consider the probability of a 'black swan' disrupting things in an unexpected way (actually quite common - Falklands, expenses scandal, Cleggasm, financial crash)

Obviously this is to an extent subjective. My judgement is that the current Betfair odds over-estimate the probability of Lab Maj, slightly underestimate the probability of NOM, and are about right on Con Maj.

JackW

GIN1138 said:

Who know's what will happen to the polls when Cameron declares war on Spain!!!!!! :O

Let's ask JackW what the effect may be. He was around for the Armada afterall....

Back to PB's favourite English King - Philip of Spain ....

Titters ....

Morris_Dancer

Mr. W, Philip of Spain wasn't a patch on Philip II of Macedon.

bigjohnowls

Mug punters

Like taking candy from a baby



Eater

JackW

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. W, Philip of Spain wasn't a patch on Philip II of Macedon.

It's all Greek to me .....

Smashes plate stereotypically ....

Morris_Dancer

What?!

Mr. W, if you wreen't such an esteemed and elderly gentleman I'd say you should wash your mouth out with soap.

Macedon. Not Greece! [Pella, the capital, actually lies within modern Albania, I believe].

MikeSmithson

@RichardNabavi

You are forgetting with your example that levels of polling support are netted off so it is not the zero sum game that you suggest.

Some pollsters, notably ICM, ComRes and Survation, make an allowance for don't knows in their figures so your approach is double counting.

Your 4% going from current LAB to LD effectively means that two thirds of those LDs who've switched would go back. That is a massive assumption particuarly in the marginals.

DecrepitJohnL

TGOHF said:

David Miliband writes for the Staggers

http://www.newstatesman.com/international-politics/2013/08/david-miliband-decade-disorder

I've read it twice and have no idea what Miliband is saying, if he's saying anything at all, which I doubt.

MikeSmithson

How many aircraft carriers does the Spanish Navy have? The answer, I believe, is 3 which is 3 more than the Royal Navy.

Would GB win a war?

AlastairMeeks

@DecrepitJohnL He gets two digs in at his brother's Opposition:

"while fiscal stimulus may be a short-term remedy for low demand, fiscal prudence is a medium-term necessity. Keynesianism is after all a hard taskmaster."

" “Predistribution” does not fit on an electoral pledge card."

The rest is as good an illustration as any of how he is a hopeless communicator and an average political strategist.

taffys

Poll volatility explains the rise in the conservative price more than anything else.

Financial option prices always rise when markets become more uncertain and these bets are not unlike options in some respects.

RichardNabavi

MikeSmithson said:

Your 4% going from current LAB to LD effectively means that two thirds of those LDs who've switched would go back. That is a massive assumption particuarly in the marginals.

In my example (which, as I emphasised, is just an example), the LibDems get back up to 13.5%, which is not a massive assumption; in practice I'd expect them to do better than that, given their recent performance in local elections and by-elections.

Also, I'm not double-counting, because my assessments are based on what happens in published headline poll figures. Typically, those show a quite chunky movement (usually a swing back to the governing party) from this far out.

richardDodd

Why on earth would the Spanish need three Aircraft carriers..they live on the other side of a thin wire fence

RobD

MikeSmithson said:

How many aircraft carriers does the Spanish Navy have? The answer, I believe, is 3 which is 3 more than the Royal Navy.

Would GB win a war?

Wouldn't Spain face consequences in terms of NATO and EU membership if they decided to invade?

GIN1138 said:

Who know's what will happen to the polls when Cameron declares war on Spain!!!!!! :O

Let's ask JackW what the effect may be. He was around for the Armada afterall....

I'm anxiously awaiting Cam's speech to the troops at Tilsbury

Ishmael_X

MikeSmithson said:

How many aircraft carriers does the Spanish Navy have? The answer, I believe, is 3 which is 3 more than the Royal Navy.

Would GB win a war?

Gibraltar *is* an aircraft carrier in this context, that is rather the point. Plus we can comfortably bomb anywhere in Spain on round trips from Blighty.

"Royal Air Force Gibraltar is a unique station; situated in the shadow of the Rock adjacent to the border with Spain. The airfield was built at the start of the Second World War and is an integral part of Gibraltarian life as the only road into Spain crosses the runway.

Today there are no military aircraft permanently based at RAF Gibraltar however, the Station remains at extremely high readiness to support UK military operations."

http://www.raf.mod.uk/rafgibraltar/

TGOHF

DecrepitJohnL said:

TGOHF said:

David Miliband writes for the Staggers

http://www.newstatesman.com/international-politics/2013/08/david-miliband-decade-disorder

I've read it twice and have no idea what Miliband is saying, if he's saying anything at all, which I doubt.

Me neither - I think he's saying "I wouldn't start from here" - most helpful.

TGOHF

Seem to remember that Uk special forces acquitted themselves most satisfactorily the last time they went into action in Gibraltar..

Grandiose

Even Brown closed Cameron's Conservatives' lead by ten points in 12 months. Major closed it by 12. (Blair even managed to add a few points to his lead before 2005.)

carl

DecrepitJohnL said:

TGOHF said:

David Miliband writes for the Staggers

http://www.newstatesman.com/international-politics/2013/08/david-miliband-decade-disorder

I've read it twice and have no idea what Miliband is saying, if he's saying anything at all, which I doubt.

Miliband (D) always talks like that. Even on the telly.

Labour really did pick the right brother.

RichardNabavi

Very generous and helpful of David Miliband to leave the stage with an article so mind-numbingly dull and so stuffed full of inane pseudo-intellectual name-dropping (as Stan Greenberg has written... what Tony Judt called “defensive social democracy”... Francis Fukuyama has laid down the challenge..what the US columnist David Brooks has called... what Al Gore calls “robo-sourcing”... I was once told by a Swedish friend of mine – a successful politician in his own right.. ) that everyone in the Labour movement will inevitably conclude that, whatever his faults, Ed was the better choice of the two.

Alanbrooke

carl said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

TGOHF said:

David Miliband writes for the Staggers

http://www.newstatesman.com/international-politics/2013/08/david-miliband-decade-disorder

I've read it twice and have no idea what Miliband is saying, if he's saying anything at all, which I doubt.

Miliband (D) always talks like that. Even on the telly.

Labour really did pick the right brother.

But the wrong Ed.

CarlottaVance

MikeSmithson said:

How many aircraft carriers does the Spanish Navy have? The answer, I believe, is 3 which is 3 more than the Royal Navy.

One actually...

http://www.armada.mde.es/ArmadaPortal/page/Portal/ArmadaEspannola/buques_superficie/prefLang_en/02_lhd-juan-carlos-i--03_lhd-juan-carlos-i-l-61#armamento

And its used as a helicopter ship......their aircraft carrier was decommissioned in February....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_aircraft_carrier_Príncipe_de_Asturias

So far the Indonesians have decided not to buy her....

richardDodd

Don't the Spanish have tanks, soldiers and things, and some wire cutters

Grandiose

We wouldn't need an Aircraft Carrier, Spain's in range of mainland Britain. And certainly would be France. Or Portugal.

JosiasJessop

CarlottaVance said:

MikeSmithson said:

How many aircraft carriers does the Spanish Navy have? The answer, I believe, is 3 which is 3 more than the Royal Navy.

One actually...

http://www.armada.mde.es/ArmadaPortal/page/Portal/ArmadaEspannola/buques_superficie/prefLang_en/02_lhd-juan-carlos-i--03_lhd-juan-carlos-i-l-61#armamento

And its used as a helicopter ship......their aircraft carrier was decommissioned in February....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_aircraft_carrier_Príncipe_de_Asturias

So far the Indonesians have decided not to buy her....

So essentially the same as us, in the form of HMS Lusty (and Ocean once Lusty is retired). Then soon afterwards we'll have one (possibly two) nice and shiny 65,000 ton carriers to moor permanently at Portsmouth ...

I will leave it up to politicians to calculate the political effects of a Spanish land-grab of Gibraltar, and the military experts the military consequences. But I doubt they will be pleasant for any side.

CarlottaVance

Worth listening to Andrew Norfolk of the Times on R4 PM on prosecution of child sex offences:

https://audioboo.fm/boos/1538982-times-reporter-andrew-norfolk-on-prosecution-of-child-sex-offences

Sunil_Prasannan

I know I asked this before, but: Why aren't there are any probablities listed for LD majority?
I want to know!!

carl

So this morning PBTories found a new hero after some oh-so endearing casual racism from a UKIP idiot.

This evening we're fantasising about war with Spain.

Ho hum.

surbiton

In my opinion, the odds under-estimate NOM. Over-estimates LAB majority. Also over-estimates Tory majority.

I would put it as follows [ Today ]:

NOM 60% edited
LAB 25% edited
CON 15%

I think some people here truly under-estimates the statistical mountain the Tories have to climb. I think a further handicap since 2010 is UKIP. I believe UKIP will end up with 6% of the votes - mostly from the Tories. Therefore, the Tories have to improve by 3% just to keep still.

CarlottaVance

Paul Waugh complaining about No 10 midnight embargo breach by SKY - looks like ITV are too :


.@itvnews at 6:30pm We're in, with breaking news: an 'emergency' half a billion pounds for Accident & Emergency in NHS England. @carldinnen

anotherDave

surbiton said:

I believe UKIP will end up with 6% of the votes - mostly from the Tories.

The ex-tories seem the most likely UKIP supporters to revert. So the bulk of UKIP's increased share in 2015 must surely come from 2010 LD, and 2010 non-voters.

Sunil_Prasannan

carl said:

So this morning PBTories found a new hero after some oh-so endearing casual racism from a UKIP idiot.

This evening we're fantasising about war with Spain.

Ho hum.

The way I see it, we have a territorial claim against the whole of Spain, due to our lliberating her from Napoleon's forces during the late 1800s/early 1810s!

Sunil_Prasannan

surbiton said:

In my opinion, the odds under-estimate NOM. Over-estimates LAB majority. Also over-estimates Tory majority.

I would put it as follows [ Today ]:

NOM 60% edited
LAB 25% edited
CON 15%

What about LD Majority?

Alanbrooke

Sunil_Prasannan said:

carl said:

So this morning PBTories found a new hero after some oh-so endearing casual racism from a UKIP idiot.

This evening we're fantasising about war with Spain.

Ho hum.

The way I see it, we have a territorial claim against the whole of Spain, due to our lliberating her from Napoleon's forces during the late 1800s/early 1810s!

Quite so Sunil, and what with all those brits at spanish seaside resorts we should rename it Bingo Bingo land.

surbiton

CarlottaVance said:

Paul Waugh complaining about No 10 midnight embargo breach by SKY - looks like ITV are too :


.@itvnews at 6:30pm We're in, with breaking news: an 'emergency' half a billion pounds for Accident & Emergency in NHS England. @carldinnen

But wasn't everything hunky-dory in Tory A&E land ?

Now let's see how we can blame Labour for this one ? Oh, yes ! Labour founded the NHS.

surbiton

Sunil_Prasannan said:

surbiton said:

In my opinion, the odds under-estimate NOM. Over-estimates LAB majority. Also over-estimates Tory majority.

I would put it as follows [ Today ]:

NOM 60% edited
LAB 25% edited
CON 15%

What about LD Majority?

It got lost in the rounding. However, in a funny sort of way, the party most likely to be part of the next government are actually....the Liberal Democrats.

What are the odds on that ?

CarlottaVance

surbiton said:

In my opinion, the odds under-estimate NOM. Over-estimates LAB majority. Also over-estimates Tory majority.

I would put it as follows [ Today ]:

NOM 60% edited
LAB 25% edited
CON 15%

Sounds reasonable to me.

The only question is what happens between "today" and "20 months from today"....some think the Tory numbers will improve on the back of an improving economy. What is less clear is how Labour will improve their numbers since they've spent the last 40 months saying "things are going to get worse"....

anotherDave

Sunil_Prasannan said:

carl said:

So this morning PBTories found a new hero after some oh-so endearing casual racism from a UKIP idiot.

This evening we're fantasising about war with Spain.

Ho hum.

The way I see it, we have a territorial claim against the whole of Spain, due to our lliberating her from Napoleon's forces during the late 1800s/early 1810s!

Isn't there a huge number of expats living in Spain now? Perhaps they've already bought a big chuck of territory?

TCPoliticalBetting

Another LD MP to retire at GE.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-23603527
Is that just two with Doris from Dorset?

surbiton

anotherDave said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

carl said:

So this morning PBTories found a new hero after some oh-so endearing casual racism from a UKIP idiot.

This evening we're fantasising about war with Spain.

Ho hum.

The way I see it, we have a territorial claim against the whole of Spain, due to our lliberating her from Napoleon's forces during the late 1800s/early 1810s!

Isn't there a huge number of expats living in Spain now? Perhaps they've already bought a big chuck of territory?

Think about the extra strain on our NHS if these expats come back to the UK ? We will need a new hospital just for hip operations !

CarlottaVance

surbiton said:

CarlottaVance said:

Paul Waugh complaining about No 10 midnight embargo breach by SKY - looks like ITV are too :


.@itvnews at 6:30pm We're in, with breaking news: an 'emergency' half a billion pounds for Accident & Emergency in NHS England. @carldinnen

But wasn't everything hunky-dory in Tory A&E land ?

Now let's see how we can blame Labour for this one ? Oh, yes ! Labour founded the NHS.

There's a problem in the NHS - do you:

I) ignore it,
II) do something about it.

We know what Labour did...

richardDodd

It must be nice living in Carl land... is that near Cheshire..Is the water treated with something special there

MaxPB

anotherDave said:

surbiton said:

I believe UKIP will end up with 6% of the votes - mostly from the Tories.

The ex-tories seem the most likely UKIP supporters to revert. So the bulk of UKIP's increased share in 2015 must surely come from 2010 LD, and 2010 non-voters.

I would say almost all of UKIP's increase will come at the expense of NoTA. They are the classic NoTA protest party right now, especially for people of the "Britain isn't what it used to be" mindset.

surbiton

CarlottaVance said:

surbiton said:

In my opinion, the odds under-estimate NOM. Over-estimates LAB majority. Also over-estimates Tory majority.

I would put it as follows [ Today ]:

NOM 60% edited
LAB 25% edited
CON 15%

Sounds reasonable to me.

The only question is what happens between "today" and "20 months from today"....some think the Tory numbers will improve on the back of an improving economy. What is less clear is how Labour will improve their numbers since they've spent the last 40 months saying "things are going to get worse"....

The figures above are based on Today's perception of the GE2015 result, not today's opinion polls. On today's opinion polls, Labour majority > 50%. So, my projection is not an "improvement" for Labour. For the Tories, it is an improvement because on current polls, the implied chances of a Tory majority is less than 5%. Probably 3% or so.

FluffyThoughts

MikeSmithson said:

How many aircraft carriers does the Spanish Navy have? The answer, I believe, is 3 which is 3 more than the Royal Navy.

Would GB win a war?

None: PdA was decommed months ago and JCI is a LHD (which can pretend to be a carrier at-a-push; as long as it is not required to operate lengthy combat ops. [See the RAN thread at DefenceTalk.com for a lengthy explaination.]

The other vessel is (I take it that you are referring to) an LPD based on the Rotterdam class. So the RN can add to Lusty, Ocean (refit) the following: Albion Bulwark and the three Bays....

Would GB win a war: TacTomIV from the T-Boats would win the war. It is that simple.

:silly-boy:

Ishmael_X

carl said:

So this morning PBTories found a new hero after some oh-so endearing casual racism from a UKIP idiot.

This evening we're fantasising about war with Spain.

Ho hum.

1. No they didn't, Pork suggested they might but no one took him up on it. But if you want some material for faux outrage, I am happy to tell you that anyone who knows anything about sub Saharan Africa knows that what he said was trivially true and that countries you haven't heard of like Côte d'Ivoire and the CAR deserve to be called a lot worse than that.

2. The Spain issue was raised by Mr Smithson who I am sure is delighted to know your views on what he can talk about on his own website.

surbiton

CarlottaVance said:

surbiton said:

CarlottaVance said:

Paul Waugh complaining about No 10 midnight embargo breach by SKY - looks like ITV are too :


.@itvnews at 6:30pm We're in, with breaking news: an 'emergency' half a billion pounds for Accident & Emergency in NHS England. @carldinnen

But wasn't everything hunky-dory in Tory A&E land ?

Now let's see how we can blame Labour for this one ? Oh, yes ! Labour founded the NHS.

There's a problem in the NHS - do you:

I) ignore it,
II) do something about it.

We know what Labour did...

You certainly did not ignore it. Your re-organisation created this mess. Ambulance drivers spening more time inside their ambulances waiting to deliver patients into A&E.

Theuniondivvie

FluffyThoughts said:

MikeSmithson said:

How many aircraft carriers does the Spanish Navy have? The answer, I believe, is 3 which is 3 more than the Royal Navy.

Would GB win a war?

None: PdA was decommed months ago and JCI is a LHD (which can pretend to be a carrier at-a-push; as long as it is not required to operate lengthy combat ops. [See the RAN thread at DefenceTalk.com for a lengthy explaination.]

The other vessel is (I take it that you are referring to) an LPD based on the Rotterdam class. So the RN can add to Lusty, Ocean (refit) the following: Albion Bulwark and the three Bays....

Would GB win a war: TacTomIV from the T-Boats would win the war. It is that simple.

:silly-boy:

I always think 5 or more obscure TLAs per post is w@nker level.

Does PdA count?

Sunil_Prasannan

PdA = Principe de Asturias

anotherDave

surbiton said:

anotherDave said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

carl said:

So this morning PBTories found a new hero after some oh-so endearing casual racism from a UKIP idiot.

This evening we're fantasising about war with Spain.

Ho hum.

The way I see it, we have a territorial claim against the whole of Spain, due to our lliberating her from Napoleon's forces during the late 1800s/early 1810s!

Isn't there a huge number of expats living in Spain now? Perhaps they've already bought a big chuck of territory?

Think about the extra strain on our NHS if these expats come back to the UK ? We will need a new hospital just for hip operations !

Pish, they're just the advance guard. The long-term aim is to annex the nicer bits of Spain.

Andy_JS

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Another LD MP to retire at GE.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-23603527
Is that just two with Doris from Dorset?

Yes.

Retirements so far:

Con: 9
Lab: 7
LD: 2
Ind: 1

Total: 19

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dFkzTjFrRmJRN3F6ODBTTEs4NGFhcUE#gid=0

MarkSenior

anotherDave said:

surbiton said:

I believe UKIP will end up with 6% of the votes - mostly from the Tories.

The ex-tories seem the most likely UKIP supporters to revert. So the bulk of UKIP's increased share in 2015 must surely come from 2010 LD, and 2010 non-voters.

You should read the views of some of these Con to UKIP switchers on Conhome . The chances of them reverting are close to zero as long as Cameron stays as leader . What we do not know is what % of all Con to UKIP switchers they represent .

Andy_JS

The Australian general election has been confirmed as taking place on 7th September:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_federal_election,_2013

The German general election will take place on 22nd September:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_federal_election,_2013

MikeSmithson

Alan Beith has served continuously as an MP longer than anyone since Lloyd George, 40 years, and he's hung on to what should be a solid CON seat against all the odds.

New candidates defending LD seats traditionally struggle and that's likely to happen.

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Another LD MP to retire at GE.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-23603527
Is that just two with Doris from Dorset?

anotherDave

MarkSenior said:

anotherDave said:

surbiton said:

I believe UKIP will end up with 6% of the votes - mostly from the Tories.

The ex-tories seem the most likely UKIP supporters to revert. So the bulk of UKIP's increased share in 2015 must surely come from 2010 LD, and 2010 non-voters.

You should read the views of some of these Con to UKIP switchers on Conhome . The chances of them reverting are close to zero as long as Cameron stays as leader . What we do not know is what % of all Con to UKIP switchers they represent .

Surbition predicts the UKIP vote will fall to 6%. A fall that drastic requires Con/Lab sympathisers to revert. 2010 LDs and 2010 non-voters have already passed on the Lab/Con choice.

foxinsoxuk

Hang on. Patients waiting in ambulances is due to the four hour wait target introduced by Labour. The clock starts when the patient is registered as arriving. Therefore if you want to meet your targets while having an inadequate A/E you either do not unload patients, or you ship them off to wards without a proper treatment plan. This happened in Mid Staffs and is not a post 2010 phenomenon.

Indeed the increase in A and E breeches this year may be due to these abusive game plays stopping.

surbiton said:

CarlottaVance said:

surbiton said:

CarlottaVance said:

Paul Waugh complaining about No 10 midnight embargo breach by SKY - looks like ITV are too :


.@itvnews at 6:30pm We're in, with breaking news: an 'emergency' half a billion pounds for Accident & Emergency in NHS England. @carldinnen

But wasn't everything hunky-dory in Tory A&E land ?

Now let's see how we can blame Labour for this one ? Oh, yes ! Labour founded the NHS.

There's a problem in the NHS - do you:

I) ignore it,
II) do something about it.

We know what Labour did...

You certainly did not ignore it. Your re-organisation created this mess. Ambulance drivers spening more time inside their ambulances waiting to deliver patients into A&E.

Andy_JS

Of the 19 seats where the MP has announced their retirement, in 6 of them a replacement candidate for their party has already been selected:

1. Bristol South (Lab): Karin Smyth
2. Cardiff North (Con): Craig Williams
3. Dorset Mid & Poole North (LD): Vikki Slade
4. Hampstead & Kilburn (Lab): Tulip Siddiq
5. Lewisham Deptford (Lab): Vikki Foxcroft
6. Southampton Itchen (Lab): Rowenna Davis

dr_spyn

al beeb pick up on A and E story.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-23599926

MikeK

So OGH is getting excited over 24.4% for the Tories to win a majority, well he's had longer odds but not by much. I think I'll keep my money in my pocket.

JonathanD

Its not like there was no fiddling of the figures prior to 2010...

"Two Stafford Hospital nurses who falsified A&E discharge times have been struck off the nursing register.

The Nursing and Midwifery Council (NMC) panel found that Tracey-Ann White and Sharon Turner had brought their profession into serious disrepute.

The false recording took place between 2000 and 2010 and was done to avoid breaches of four-hour waiting targets."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-stoke-staffordshire-23450764

foxinsoxuk said:

Hang on. Patients waiting in ambulances is due to the four hour wait target introduced by Labour. The clock starts when the patient is registered as arriving. Therefore if you want to meet your targets while having an inadequate A/E you either do not unload patients, or you ship them off to wards without a proper treatment plan. This happened in Mid Staffs and is not a post 2010 phenomenon.

Indeed the increase in A and E breeches this year may be due to these abusive game plays stopping.

surbiton said:

CarlottaVance said:

surbiton said:

CarlottaVance said:

Paul Waugh complaining about No 10 midnight embargo breach by SKY - looks like ITV are too :


.@itvnews at 6:30pm We're in, with breaking news: an 'emergency' half a billion pounds for Accident & Emergency in NHS England. @carldinnen

But wasn't everything hunky-dory in Tory A&E land ?

Now let's see how we can blame Labour for this one ? Oh, yes ! Labour founded the NHS.

There's a problem in the NHS - do you:

I) ignore it,
II) do something about it.

We know what Labour did...

You certainly did not ignore it. Your re-organisation created this mess. Ambulance drivers spening more time inside their ambulances waiting to deliver patients into A&E.

foxinsoxuk

Quite where targets become gamed to falsify figures is a rather shady area. It is one reason that I am sceptical over them.

When money and promotions depend on these targets they start to get distorted, sometimes legitimately, sometimes not.

JonathanD said:

Its not like there was no fiddling of the figures prior to 2010...

"Two Stafford Hospital nurses who falsified A&E discharge times have been struck off the nursing register.

The Nursing and Midwifery Council (NMC) panel found that Tracey-Ann White and Sharon Turner had brought their profession into serious disrepute.

The false recording took place between 2000 and 2010 and was done to avoid breaches of four-hour waiting targets."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-stoke-staffordshire-23450764

foxinsoxuk said:

Hang on. Patients waiting in ambulances is due to the four hour wait target introduced by Labour. The clock starts when the patient is registered as arriving. Therefore if you want to meet your targets while having an inadequate A/E you either do not unload patients, or you ship them off to wards without a proper treatment plan. This happened in Mid Staffs and is not a post 2010 phenomenon.

Indeed the increase in A and E breeches this year may be due to these abusive game plays stopping.

surbiton said:

CarlottaVance said:

surbiton said:

CarlottaVance said:

Paul Waugh complaining about No 10 midnight embargo breach by SKY - looks like ITV are too :


.@itvnews at 6:30pm We're in, with breaking news: an 'emergency' half a billion pounds for Accident & Emergency in NHS England. @carldinnen

But wasn't everything hunky-dory in Tory A&E land ?

Now let's see how we can blame Labour for this one ? Oh, yes ! Labour founded the NHS.

There's a problem in the NHS - do you:

I) ignore it,
II) do something about it.

We know what Labour did...

You certainly did not ignore it. Your re-organisation created this mess. Ambulance drivers spening more time inside their ambulances waiting to deliver patients into A&E.

Theuniondivvie

Sunil_Prasannan said:

PdA = Principe de Asturias

Yeah, I guessed that. An abbreviation or a TLA though?

dr_spyn

after Panesar has another wild slash at a bouncer...

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/420372/England-bowler-Monty-Panesar-dropped-from-Ashes-squad-for-urinating-on-club-bouncers

JonathanD

Well that NMC finding suggests it goes back to 2000 and I doubt fiddling of the figures was confined to just two nurses in Stafford. One of the current suggested problems with A&E is the lack of doctors. Do you know if this this related to the EU Working Time directive limiting the amount of hours junior doctors can work on call?

foxinsoxuk said:

Quite where targets become gamed to falsify figures is a rather shady area. It is one reason that I am sceptical over them.

When money and promotions depend on these targets they start to get distorted, sometimes legitimately, sometimes not.

JonathanD said:

Its not like there was no fiddling of the figures prior to 2010...

"Two Stafford Hospital nurses who falsified A&E discharge times have been struck off the nursing register.

The Nursing and Midwifery Council (NMC) panel found that Tracey-Ann White and Sharon Turner had brought their profession into serious disrepute.

The false recording took place between 2000 and 2010 and was done to avoid breaches of four-hour waiting targets."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-stoke-staffordshire-23450764

MarkSenior

anotherDave said:

MarkSenior said:

anotherDave said:

surbiton said:

I believe UKIP will end up with 6% of the votes - mostly from the Tories.

The ex-tories seem the most likely UKIP supporters to revert. So the bulk of UKIP's increased share in 2015 must surely come from 2010 LD, and 2010 non-voters.

You should read the views of some of these Con to UKIP switchers on Conhome . The chances of them reverting are close to zero as long as Cameron stays as leader . What we do not know is what % of all Con to UKIP switchers they represent .

Surbition predicts the UKIP vote will fall to 6%. A fall that drastic requires Con/Lab sympathisers to revert. 2010 LDs and 2010 non-voters have already passed on the Lab/Con choice.

Nope it requires the bulk of Con/Lab to UKIP switchers to revert , the least likely to do so being those who vociferously day in day out post on Conhome . As I said though we do not know what % of switchers that will be .

MikeSmithson

That's the sort of comment that pisses me off.

MikeK said:

So OGH is getting excited over 24.4% for the Tories to win a majority, well he's had longer odds but not by much. I think I'll keep my money in my pocket.

HYUFD

UNH/WMUR New Hampshire 2016

Chris Christie 21% [11%] (14%)
Rand Paul 16% [15%] (8%)
Jeb Bush 10% [5%] (5%)
Paul Ryan 8% [11%] (11%)
Marco Rubio 6% [15%] (12%)
Ted Cruz 4% [2%] (1%)
Rick Santorum 4% [4%] (3%)
Rick Perry 4%
Scott Walker 2% [1%] (3%)
Bobby Jindal 0% [2%] (2%)
Rob Portman 0% [1%] (0%)
John Kasich 0%
Someone else 3% [0%] (2%)
Don’t know yet 20% [23%] (20%)

IOS

Dan Hodges as usual shoots his mouth off. He is very good at generating self publicity. I think anyone who predicts a Tory majority should be forced to say which group of voters Cameron couldn't win at the last election against Brown he will win this time. Then the specific Labour MPs he expects to see defeated.

He won't be able to. But that's because he doesn't really think. Labour has been working away in the background getting things ready. Good candidates like Nick P selected. And hard working on the ground campaigns in marginal seats. This will matter far more than a few headline grabbing stunts by the Tories.

Of course Hodges doesn't want to admit this matters because it renders him and other pundits pretty redundant in choosing the next government. Which of course they are.

JosiasJessop

foxinsoxuk said:

Quite where targets become gamed to falsify figures is a rather shady area. It is one reason that I am sceptical over them.

When money and promotions depend on these targets they start to get distorted, sometimes legitimately, sometimes not.

JonathanD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Hang on. Patients waiting in ambulances is due to the four hour wait target introduced by Labour. The clock starts when the patient is registered as arriving. Therefore if you want to meet your targets while having an inadequate A/E you either do not unload patients, or you ship them off to wards without a proper treatment plan. This happened in Mid Staffs and is not a post 2010 phenomenon.

Indeed the increase in A and E breeches this year may be due to these abusive game plays stopping.

surbiton said:

CarlottaVance said:

surbiton said:

CarlottaVance said:

Paul Waugh complaining about No 10 midnight embargo breach by SKY - looks like ITV are too :

.@itvnews at 6:30pm We're in, with breaking news: an 'emergency' half a billion pounds for Accident & Emergency in NHS England. @carldinnen

But wasn't everything hunky-dory in Tory A&E land ?

Now let's see how we can blame Labour for this one ? Oh, yes ! Labour founded the NHS.

There is something to be said for the AAIB and RAIB who investigate air and rail accidents. Their purpose is to investigate what happened to learn lessons, rather than necessarily apportion blame. This was well detailed on the BA5390 flight when a pilot got half-sucked out of the plane after a window blew out.

They realised that it was probably a maintenance error, and that if they went in with all guns blazing people would keep shtum. Instead they went in to discover what happened, which was a typical human-error situation.

Rarely (if ever) is there just one failure point when something goes wrong in a system.

Do hospitals and the NHS operate a near-miss policy as used in many industries?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Airways_Flight_5390

The final report is well worth a read at:
http://www.skybrary.aero/bookshelf/books/636.pdf

Perhaps targets should be treated in the same manner ...

Stuart_Dickson

PP have cut Con Maj to 3/1 from 4/1.

YouWin still 4/1

Stuart_Dickson

antifrank said:

I'll place bets on NOMAJ at 24/1 with anyone who is prepared to lay at that price, to any stakes.

Ho ho. Well, there is said to be one born every minute.

SMukesh

Targets definitely have their place in hospitals.The fact that one had to wait 18 months for routine surgery in 1996 that one gets in 6 weeks now shows that targets have reduced waiting times tremendously.Even in A&E,such targets have led to several innovations which are extremely useful to patients.In several hospitals,Clinical Decision Units staffed led by Acute medical consultants with adequately staffed nurses have led to reducing the waiting times to 3 hours for medical patients who are approximately half the intake in A&E.

Targets have their problems but on the whole they have benefitted patients tremendously.

Stuart_Dickson

GIN1138 said:

Who know's what will happen to the polls when Cameron declares war on Spain!!!!!! :O

Let's ask JackW what the effect may be. He was around for the Armada afterall....

The Jacobites were supporting the Armada.

fitalass

I know this link has already been posted today on PB, just adding the Keep Calm and Carry on Labour strategy.
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tom_watson ‏@tom_watson 7m
A refreshingly sensible analysis of recent polls. Please remain calm. http://blogs.nottingham.ac.uk/politics/2013/08/07/polling-observatory-27-labour-in-crisis-tories-resurgent-not-really/ …