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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If stepping up the rhetoric on welfare was supposed to boos

SystemSystem Posts: 12,058
edited April 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If stepping up the rhetoric on welfare was supposed to boost CON poll ratings it has yet to work

3 out of 5 people in today’s YouGov believe that the majority of those receiving benefits are genuinely in need.See twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

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Comments

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,553
    FPT
    tim said:

    Dave and George were the only two people in the country not to see the treaty situation unfolding.
    Or maybe they did see it but decided that the Master Strategy would work anyway.

    The second one. The whole point of this exercise was to make a referendum promise that they could wriggle out of. In this case the ability to wriggle out of it comes from the fact that they're hooking the referendum onto a treaty that's always just around the corner, but never actually arrives.

    Merkel has been fairly helpful to them on this up until now. I'd want to hear a direct quote from her before concluding that the Germans have given up pretending to think there's going to be a treaty any time soon - it doesn't cost her anything to throw Cameron a bone.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,553
    edited April 2013
    On topic, I think the Tories are having a hard time adjusting to the reality of multi-party politics.

    The game used to be that the voters didn't have to think you were good, they just had to think you were better than the other lot. So if you discovered that a lot of voters were concerned about something - in this case they think a lot of people are taking the piss out of the welfare system - you could talk up the problem, and make a couple of gestures towards doing something about it, and get their votes.

    But that doesn't work if there are more parties. If you talk up a problem, you need to have a plan to actually solve it - otherwise people who believe you about the problem will vote for another party that sounds like they'll do more about it than you. It's particularly tricky for welfare, because as far as public perceptions go the problem is insoluble: Whatever the government does, the papers are still going to be telling the voters that people are taking the piss out of the system.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    As predicted

    @skynewsniall: According to Sunday People poll 66% agree with George Osborne that welfare system is broken. Do you?
  • There is an interesting piece in the Mail on Sunday on the consequences of Leveson LJ's Inquiry into the culture, practice and ethics of the press on the policy of police forces on naming those who have been arrested. Apparently, the Association of Chief Police Officers are consulting on a policy which would prohibit the naming, or confirmation of the name of an arrested person, save for the purposes of the prevention and detection of crime, or the preservation of the Queen's peace. The Law Commission appear to favour a more flexible and open approach. Needless to say, the Mail on Sunday are not at all content with the draft ACPO policy.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    For our Swedish PBers - this unfortunate camera angle is rather amusing. And a bow-tie on morning TV? Crikey.

    https://twitter.com/stevenjgibbons/status/320265274580422657/photo/1
  • RicardohosRicardohos Posts: 258
    Well done OGH for being brave, telling the truth and resisting the Tory cheerleaders on here about welfare reform. It's also a salutary less that what apparently works in the US does not transfer straight to these shores. I don't know how many times we need reminding of that, but the desperate Conservatives don't seem to have got it yet.

    In some ways linking this to the Philpott case is what's caused the problem. Everyone knows we're looking there are someone exceptionally wicked and that's not what welfare reform was supposed to be about. With that and Osborne's own goal car parking in a disabled spot the main point of the reforms has been lost in a tide of controversy. The Conservatives at the moment just look tawdry.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    edited April 2013
    FPT

    YouGov:

    Doing well/badly:
    DC:-23(0); EM:-30(-5); NC:-54(-4)

  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    FPT

    YouGov gets voters to split themselves by class:

    Working class; upper working class; lower middle class; middle class and upper middle class.

    UKIP supporters are; 15,12,10,10,9.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    edited April 2013
    That yougov poll edit:on the previous thread on welfare was pretty good at getting a clear picture of where public opinion is i thought.

    Philpott is more about the failings of the criminal justice system imo as he should have been put inside forever long ago.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    YouGov

    Thinking about the current benefits system,
    which of the following best reflects your view?:

    Works well and doesn't need any reform: 2
    Works well and doesn't need any major reform: 21
    Works fairly badly and needs significant reforms: 38
    Works very badly and needs major reforms: 32
    DK: 7
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    YouGov

    Thinking about the current benefits system...
    In determining who is eligible for benefits, do
    you think it is too strict, not strict enough or
    gets the balance about right?

    Is not strict enough and too open to abuse and fraud:63
    Is too strict and prevents some people who genuinely need help from receiving it. 22
    Gets the balance about right: 9
    DK 6
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Oh dear...

    Net "Fair"
    Benefit cap at £26 k: +68
    Benefit increase 1%: +31
    Bedroom tax :+7
    Kids share bedrooms:+17
    Child benefit for first 2 kids only: +32
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    From 5000 miles and 8 time zones away, Britain seems such an insignificant country.
    We have the soft power of TV dramas, but the 'patriots' want to dismantle that like our industry by destroying the BBC.

    Do not forget that Downton Abbey was ITV's response to the BBC winning the ratings' war.

    If there was no BBC, there would have been no Downton Abbey.

    Just my 10¢.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The public's general message in the polls is clear: the benefits aren't too generous. But the groups of people who are eligible for benefits are drawn too widely.

    The public's instincts look pretty sound to me.
  • Smithson in anti-Conservative thread interpretation of polling on welfare shocker!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited April 2013

    Oh dear...

    Net "Fair"
    Benefit cap at £26 k: +68
    Benefit increase 1%: +31
    Bedroom tax :+7
    Kids share bedrooms:+17
    Child benefit for first 2 kids only: +32

    Labour's blanket opposition to any and all benefit changes was masterful.

    @MSmithsonPB: If stepping up the rhetoric on welfare was supposed to boost CON poll ratings it has yet to work http://bit.ly/12uoYLx

    It's not about short term poll rating. It's about an election campaign where the Tories promise welfare changes and Labour remain the party of scroungers, shirkers (© Liam Byrne) and Philpott
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,557
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Smithson, those statements (in the poll) are awful.

    Take one that 42% apparently ticked:
    The majority of people who receive benefits are genuinely in need or deserving of help, but there is a minority if undeserving cases who take advantage of the system.

    A minority (NB not a very small minority at that's the category above) is anything from about 5% (still 1:20) to 49%. It doesn't matter if a majority receiving benefits deserve them if 49% don't, or even 10%. That's like saying "My body is 90% healthy, apart from my left arm which is infected with ebola".

    I have been vaguely pondering this matter. Given about half of benefits are pensions it seems there may be an immovable object and irresistible force clash coming between morality and economy reality.

    The elderly are becoming increasingly hard to afford. The problem is that life expectancy getting greater has not been matched by more years of productivity. Increasing the pension age is a must (if it's less than 73 by the time I get there I'll be amazed) but it would be better if we could keep more older people in work for longer.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    The National Governments of the 1930s were electorally successful at the time, but were damned by history for decades after.
    scampi said:

    Smithson in anti-Conservative thread interpretation of polling on welfare shocker!

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758


    If there was no BBC, there would have been no Downton Abbey.

    Just my 10¢.

    Glad to see you think the talent of the individual writers, actors, directors, et al. had nothing to do with it.

    (And, fyi, Merchant Ivory, the best - arguably the creator - of this genre is an Indian company)
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    @Charles
    The Brits do the work and the profits go abroad
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited April 2013
    After the story of the WPC who tripped/tried to sue the garage owner whilst investigating a crime - it looks like quite a lot of others have done the same.

    RT @ianpuddick: Breaking 8000 #police officers have claimed compensation of over £70,000,000.00 (£70m) in last 4 years
    http://t.co/ypsp8z8nBb
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,557
    Utter aside, but I just got an ad for Defiance. If I remember correctly that's a TV series which is working alongside a videogame of the same name, and the choices that players opt for will have an impact upon the TV show, and the plot of the TV show may alter the game as well.

    I think that's the first time such a thing has been attempted.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    @Charles
    The Brits do the work and the profits go abroad

    So release these talented people to set up their own production companies and allow them to take risks - and keep the profits.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,557
    MIss Plato, I read about a PC Dogsbody [not his real name] who hurt his ankle in a drain and sued the chap who'd called him for loss of overtime (he was off work, on full pay, for about 4 months).

    It's immensely impressive how they've managed to go downhill in terms of respect. There's Hillsborough, Plebgate, 'unkempt', sueing victims of crime when they hurt their ikkle selves, leaking to newspapers and, of course, ignoring the pleas of victims (and their families) of gang rape.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Plato said:

    After the story of the WPC who tripped/tried to sue the garage owner whilst investigating a crime - it looks like quite a lot of others have done the same.

    RT @ianpuddick: Breaking 8000 #police officers have claimed compensation of over £70,000,000.00 (£70m) in last 4 years
    http://t.co/ypsp8z8nBb

    YouGov:

    Police Oficer should be able to sue for compensation - net support: -38


  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The welfare debate may be behind the YouGov movement in leadership ratings. But that's a very tentative suggestion. The movements are fairly small.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,557
    Ah, here's Labour's piece on benefits. It actually has some policies in:
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/apr/06/liam-byrne-tory-benefit-cuts

    "First, people must be better off in work than living on benefits. We would make work pay by reintroducing a 10p tax rate and supporting employers who pay the living wage."

    Possible. The thing is, that's either a tax hike where there's currently a 0% rate, immensely expensive by making it from £10k to whatever the upper limit is, or could be neutral financially by straddling the top of the 0% and bottom of the 20% rate (although this would mean increasing taxation on low paid workers).

    "Second, we would match rights with responsibilities. Labour would ensure that no adult will be able to be live on the dole for over two years and no young person for over a year. They will be offered a real job with real training, real prospects and real responsibility. This would be paid for by taxing bankers' bonuses and restricting pension tax relief for the wealthiest. People would have to take this opportunity or lose benefits."

    Sounds good, but they've spent bankers' bonuses about twelve times already and pension tax relief has, I think, already been cut. The figures might be unexpected, but I'd be surprised if they actually added up. This is more of a PR message: "Evil bankers will pay for British jobs for British workers".

    "Third, we must do more to strengthen the old principle of contribution: there are lots of people right now who feel they pay an awful lot more in than they ever get back."

    This sounds very fair. No, really. Except, there's a problem. If this means being financially neutral then those at the bottom end would see their benefits cut, which flies in the face of everything Labour has said and done. If it means keeping the present rates as a kind of baseline, with extra payments for those who have paid in more (and is this across the board?) then it'll cost a bloody fortune, and there's no money left.

    The Coalition should hammer Labour over the logical inconsistencies (which are all the same: sounds good, but it'll cost a fortune, show us the figures). They probably won't, though.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Charles said:

    @Charles
    The Brits do the work and the profits go abroad

    So release these talented people to set up their own production companies and allow them to take risks - and keep the profits.
    @Charles
    The Brit way is to allow others to take the risks and allow the financial class to skim the profits at no risk to themselves. Heads they win, and tails someone else loses.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,076



    It's immensely impressive how they've managed to go downhill in terms of respect. There's Hillsborough, Plebgate, 'unkempt', sueing victims of crime when they hurt their ikkle selves, leaking to newspapers and, of course, ignoring the pleas of victims (and their families) of gang rape.

    It's more than impressive; it's a serious potential threat to law'n order. The Police were always suspect on the organised Left, being too often seen as the agents of the Establishment. If they are now seen as suspect by that Establishment and by the Right, what is going to happen?

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    @Morris_Dancer I just report the polling - I'm not responsible for the questions.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,557
    Mr. Smithson, I know that (that said, it would be interesting if you got to make the polling questions).

    Incidentally, could you confirm that the pb2 F1 threads are now monitored by a mod? I am sorry to keep banging on about this, but the last thread was cleaned up very quickly, which was a great help as there's been a significant increase in spam this year and it was ruining the comments. Either such monitoring or me being able to axe spam would be very welcome news.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,796
    edited April 2013
    @Carlotta

    Net "Fair"
    Benefit cap at £26 k: +68
    Benefit increase 1%: +31
    Bedroom tax :+7
    Kids share bedrooms:+17
    Child benefit for first 2 kids only: +32


    Very interesting. I suspect the figures reflect what people think is fair rather than there being any vindictiveness towards the feckless. Thus I suspect Osborne's rather creepy attempt to link them to Philpott has backfired which is why the Tories haven't gained from supporting reasonably popular changes



  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @DanHannanMEP: A bit much for Tories to call Philpott "a hammer blow against the conscience of the nation". Oh, sorry: that was Labour on the Bulger case.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    edited April 2013
    Charles said:

    @Charles
    The Brits do the work and the profits go abroad

    So release these talented people to set up their own production companies and allow them to take risks - and keep the profits.
    I think that that is exactly what has happened in British TV. Very little is made in house any more. The vast bulk of TV programmes are made by private companies who have to take risks.

    My brother spent the first part of his career as a staffer with the BBC and Granada. Now he's a very successful film maker running his own companies and getting Oscar nominations

  • hucks67hucks67 Posts: 758
    Point is that people in work feel vulnerable to the risk of losing their jobs and needing benefits for a short period. The Tories need to be careful with the language they use to make sure they talk about fairness, rather than appear to sometimes talk down people, who may occasionally have need of help. There are millions of people in work at the moment, who may be thinking that they could be one pay cheque away from the dole queue and they should not be made to feel bad if they had to claim benefits.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    antifrank said:

    The welfare debate may be behind the YouGov movement in leadership ratings. But that's a very tentative suggestion. The movements are fairly small.

    Not among Labour voters they're not:

    Net approval among VI: (change)

    Cameron: +80 (-2)
    Miliband:+30 (-10)
    Clegg: +33 (+5)
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,796
    @Mike. "I just report the polling - I'm not responsible for the questions."

    i remember in the early days of Yougov them asking 'Is Cherie Blair more likely to make you vote Labour or Sandra Howard more likely to make you vote Conservative?'. I think it appeared in the Mail. Fortunately they've cleaned up their act a little since then
  • hucks67hucks67 Posts: 758
    Plato said:

    After the story of the WPC who tripped/tried to sue the garage owner whilst investigating a crime - it looks like quite a lot of others have done the same.

    This has been going on for years. Over 20 years ago, a friend of mines partner, an off duty Police Officer was beaten up while off duty. Some argument in a taxi queue, which got out of hand. Anyway this Police officer received several thousand pounds of public money, as compensation for their facial injuries ( not that serious as not lasting), when a normal member of the public, would not I expect have been considered for such compensation.

  • davidthecondavidthecon Posts: 165
    edited April 2013
    Plato said:

    For our Swedish PBers - this unfortunate camera angle is rather amusing. And a bow-tie on morning TV? Crikey.

    https://twitter.com/stevenjgibbons/status/320265274580422657/photo/1


    That's Kim Il Sven, leader of the Swedish left party. It's a discussion about finding horsemeat in nuclear weapons. Or something.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    @Roger - surely the larger point is that Labour has been on the wrong side of this argument - which may be behind the slump in Ed's ratings among supporters. The government will not see its polling improve until the economy does - welfare is just one of those things (so far) they are "not screwing up" - unlike Labour.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,796
    @Charles. 'Glad to see you think the talent of the individual writers, actors, directors, et al. had nothing to do with it."

    All the talent on Downton is BBC trained and discovered. There is no chance Downton could have been made here had the BBC not existed.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,243
    Roger said:

    @Charles. 'Glad to see you think the talent of the individual writers, actors, directors, et al. had nothing to do with it."

    All the talent on Downton is BBC trained and discovered. There is no chance Downton could have been made here had the BBC not existed.

    rubbish Roger, it's just Upstairs Downstairs updated from LWT 40 years ago.
  • RicardohosRicardohos Posts: 258
    edited April 2013
    Those of you taking the occasional pop at OGH for chastising the Cons should perhaps remember that he was one of the lone voices from the outset criticising the choice of Gordon Brown as Labour leader and PM. As it turned out, how right Mike was.

    (One reason for this is that he studies the polling and trends.)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Polling versus PB Leftard anecdote...

    @GuidoFawkes: RT @PatJHennessy: Polling in papers today @telegraph and @TheSunNewspaper showing Britain has never been more out of love with the welfare system.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,380
    Labour's positioning on welfare reform has been terrible, incoherent and inconsistent. It is not surprising that Miliband's ratings have been hit.

    On the other hand tory positioning has, at times, looked cynical and vindictive so they are not getting much credit either.

    I suppose from a slightly optimistic point of view the fact that UKIP is at a new high without doing yet more damage to the tory ratings is something but that really is looking for silver linings. Despite their best efforts, it still seems likely to me that the tories will gain in the long run if the focus remains on welfare but I suspect the circus will move on fairly soon. In terms of narrative the Q1 figures later this month will be important.
  • davidthecondavidthecon Posts: 165
    I can't see a downside if Ed was to get hardcore in support of tough welfare reform. The left would moan but have nowhere else to go, his working class support would like it, and he'd pick up plenty of pee'd off middle ground Tories.

    But that would involve logical thinking, so er.......no chance.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,380

    Those of you taking the occasional pop at OGH for chastising the Cons should perhaps remember that he was one of the lone voices from the outset criticising the choice of Gordon Brown as Labour leader and PM. As it turned out, how right Mike was.

    (One reason for this is that he studies the polling and trends.)

    Without in any way challenging Mike's perspicacity that is a really peculiar example to choose. I, like a significant percentage of the population, looked on as Labour annointed Brown with a mixture of disbelief and dread. The man fully lived up to my expectations.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,037
    Whether it is a true assessment of the parties, I think the modern Conservatives problem when ratcheting up the rhetoric is that if people believe they are sincere and like what they hear, they are also likely to believe UKIP believe the same thing, only not as grudgingly and in fact even more intensely. The same issue that writers on the left sometimes write about where Lab cannot match the rhetoric of Con on welfare or imigration, as no-one will believe they believe it as much as Con.

    @AlanBrooke 'Vote Farage Get Miliband'

    Well, standard stuff I suppose. People would likely discount it as just a tactic from his opponents, just as both sides claimed voting LD would help the other side in 2010, and it would only start to impact UKIPs current numbers if it actually happened, because while they might claim to be attracting people from all sides of the spectrum, that's the whole point of a protest party I would guess, so once you have actually had an impact like that, that is when you would lose some of those people. Depends on how many.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Most of the "Talent" on Downton was freelance..not BBC trained at all
  • davidthecondavidthecon Posts: 165
    In reality, when was the last time a non right of centre leader won a general election? Blair was no socialist, not even close. What's the point in Ed even trying to appeal to the left? Who else will they vote for? He needs to solidify a centre ground/right of centre support to get a majority.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,037



    It's immensely impressive how they've managed to go downhill in terms of respect. There's Hillsborough, Plebgate, 'unkempt', sueing victims of crime when they hurt their ikkle selves, leaking to newspapers and, of course, ignoring the pleas of victims (and their families) of gang rape.

    It's more than impressive; it's a serious potential threat to law'n order. The Police were always suspect on the organised Left, being too often seen as the agents of the Establishment. If they are now seen as suspect by that Establishment and by the Right, what is going to happen?

    Hear hear. I'm not worried, yet, about a breakdown of law and order, but I am worried how little respect the police appear to get, but that lack of respect seems entirely of their own making, rather than merely being used as scapegoats by politicians over something.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724

    Those of you taking the occasional pop at OGH for chastising the Cons should perhaps remember that he was one of the lone voices from the outset criticising the choice of Gordon Brown as Labour leader and PM. As it turned out, how right Mike was.

    (One reason for this is that he studies the polling and trends.)

    What? Who apart from EiT ever thought Brown would be and remained a good choice as PM from the PB crowd?

    I can't recall any - I exempt NPEXMP because he was on the payroll at the time and therefore remained loyal to a fault.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,243
    kle4 said:

    Whether it is a true assessment of the parties, I think the modern Conservatives problem when ratcheting up the rhetoric is that if people believe they are sincere and like what they hear, they are also likely to believe UKIP believe the same thing, only not as grudgingly and in fact even more intensely. The same issue that writers on the left sometimes write about where Lab cannot match the rhetoric of Con on welfare or imigration, as no-one will believe they believe it as much as Con.

    @AlanBrooke 'Vote Farage Get Miliband'

    Well, standard stuff I suppose. People would likely discount it as just a tactic from his opponents, just as both sides claimed voting LD would help the other side in 2010, and it would only start to impact UKIPs current numbers if it actually happened, because while they might claim to be attracting people from all sides of the spectrum, that's the whole point of a protest party I would guess, so once you have actually had an impact like that, that is when you would lose some of those people. Depends on how many.

    It's going to be an interesting trade off. Can he pick up more votes in Northern labourite constituencies than he might lose in Southern blue ones ? Saying he'll do a deal with Labour might open up more areas of the electorate to him, however it depends if he upsets too many of his current supporters.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Labour and Welfare - among Labour VI:

    Benefit system works:
    Well/fairly well: 42
    Badly/Very Badly: 51

    Not strict enough: 47
    Too strict: 33
    About right: 16

    Net fair:
    £26k cap: +57
    1% increase : -4
    "bedroom tax" : -35
    Kids sharing: -15
    Child benefit first two only : 0

    So even among Labour supporters the only significant support Ed has got is on the housing front - everything else, Labour voters support govt policy - which may be behind the slump in his approval ratings.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @alexforrestitv: Harman is doing all she can to refuse to answer Mair's question on whether child benefit shld be limited to two children. #marr
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @afneil: H Harman in some difficulty answering Eddie Mair's specific questions on welfare #marr
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Bit early to judge - for a start everyone is too busy drinking/spending their income tax cut.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Telegraph suggesting FTT breaks Euro free trade rules - which would be nice.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,243
    Scott_P said:

    @afneil: H Harman in some difficulty answering Eddie Mair's specific questions on welfare #marr

    She's spouting 1980s agitprop. The woman has never grown up.

    Her claim that Labour are looking to make work pay will be interesting, since it will mean pain for some of her supporters. labour will baulk at the first fence imo.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Shows Farage is more interested in power than seeing his policies played out - he's just the same as the "Westminster" bubble he despises. He's like a thin Alex Salmond.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Polling versus PB Leftard anecdote...

    @tnewtondunn: YouGov/Sun poll: despite all the shouting, a small majority still in favour of 'the bedroom tax'; 49% v 44%. http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/4876917/Brits-say-benfits-are-too-generous.html
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,243
    TGOHF said:

    Telegraph suggesting FTT breaks Euro free trade rules - which would be nice.

    rules schmules; they'll just ignore the law when it suits them.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Oh dear. Labour's sudden conversion to the welfare reform cause is of course not actually a policy or anything, just a soundbite. That probably means the Unions have been on the phone already.

    @politicshomeuk: Harman on welfare contributory principle: “This is a discussion underway. It will come to fruition in what we put forward for our manifesto”
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    @Charles
    The Brits do the work and the profits go abroad

    So release these talented people to set up their own production companies and allow them to take risks - and keep the profits.
    @Charles
    The Brit way is to allow others to take the risks and allow the financial class to skim the profits at no risk to themselves. Heads they win, and tails someone else loses.

    And that's wrong, and should be fixed.

    But the fully socialised model that you are suggesting doesn't work either as it tends to stifle diversity (in the sense of variety).
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,243
    @TGOHF

    " He's like a thin Alex Salmond."

    A thin Salmond is beyond my ability to imagine.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758



    Charles said:

    @Charles
    The Brits do the work and the profits go abroad

    So release these talented people to set up their own production companies and allow them to take risks - and keep the profits.
    I think that that is exactly what has happened in British TV. Very little is made in house any more. The vast bulk of TV programmes are made by private companies who have to take risks.

    My brother spent the first part of his career as a staffer with the BBC and Granada. Now he's a very successful film maker running his own companies and getting Oscar nominations

    And the next step, then, is to create a variety of sources of finance. Having a monosonistic buyer doesn't help as it tends to develop pervasive group think
  • shipmate1shipmate1 Posts: 37
    Richardo - "a lone voice". What you been smoking this morning?? Mike's Bum Fluff!!!

    "Those of you taking the occasional pop at OGH for chastising the Cons should perhaps remember that he was one of the lone voices from the outset criticising the choice of Gordon Brown as Labour leader and PM. As it turned out, how right Mike was"
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Roger said:

    @Charles. 'Glad to see you think the talent of the individual writers, actors, directors, et al. had nothing to do with it."

    All the talent on Downton is BBC trained and discovered. There is no chance Downton could have been made here had the BBC not existed.

    I disagree - I am sure the BBC is good at identifying talent (at least that talent that fits to the BBC's definition), but it is not the only structure that is good at identifying talent. Smart, hard-working and talented people tend to success regardless of the employer structure
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Farewell then, David Miliband, and thanks for, well, whatever it was that you did for us all those years. Now only Ed remains; not even the best politician in his own family, he may yet be our next Prime Minister.
    http://www.thinkscotland.org/todays-thinking/articles.html?read_full=12067&article=www.thinkscotland.org
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Nigel Farage is taking his cue from Enoch Powell in 1974. I'm sceptical whether that's sensible: Enoch Powell led a strand of thought in 1970s Britain. Nigel Farage is only surfing off the back of a strand of thought in 2010s Britain. I doubt he can take the disaffected with him in the same way that Enoch Powell could.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @iainmartin1: Labour in real trouble on welfare. Floating plans without realising *everything* they do on this leads to question: "where's the money?"
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Interesting age and regional skews on the "spare room subsidy" withdrawal

    Net "fair"
    OA: +7
    18-24: +13
    25-39:+22
    40-59: +7
    60+ : -8

    London:+16
    ROSou:+17
    Md/Wales: +9
    North:-2
    Scot: -24
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523

    I can't see a downside if Ed was to get hardcore in support of tough welfare reform. The left would moan but have nowhere else to go, his working class support would like it, and he'd pick up plenty of pee'd off middle ground Tories.

    But that would involve logical thinking, so er.......no chance.

    The downside is being associated if/when the Tories overstep the mark - and what are the odds of that?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,796

    @Richard."Most of the "Talent" on Downton was freelance..not BBC trained at all"

    Of course they were freelance or they wouldn't have been able to work on an ITV drama but they learned their trade at the BBC. Their lead director was a commercials director who the BBC chose to shoot a four parter North and South. They put him with a well tried drama crew and an experienced producer and writer. They then gave him Shakespeare re-told where he won a Bafta. Then when he was approached by Julian Fellowes to work on Downton he took his BBC team of freelancers with him.

    Even Ridley Scott learnt his trade at the BBC.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Plato

    'What? Who apart from EiT ever thought Brown would be and remained a good choice as PM from the PB crowd?'

    Roger was a big fan.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,014
    TGOHF said:

    Shows Farage is more interested in power than seeing his policies played out - he's just the same as the "Westminster" bubble he despises. He's like a thin Alex Salmond.
    LOL, typical Tory, nothing to say other than insult an opponent who runs rings round the donkeys in your party. Have a pasty and calm down.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,796
    @Alanbrooke. "rubbish Roger, it's just Upstairs Downstairs updated from LWT 40 years ago."

    That part's true!
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Roger said:


    @Richard."Most of the "Talent" on Downton was freelance..not BBC trained at all"

    Of course they were freelance or they wouldn't have been able to work on an ITV drama but they learned their trade at the BBC. Their lead director was a commercials director who the BBC chose to shoot a four parter North and South. They put him with a well tried drama crew and an experienced producer and writer. They then gave him Shakespeare re-told where he won a Bafta. Then when he was approached by Julian Fellowes to work on Downton he took his BBC team of freelancers with him.

    Even Ridley Scott learnt his trade at the BBC.

    A number of my friends worked on it in varioua departments..none of them were trained at or by the BBC..I work on many productions for the BBC and they never trained me or any of my crews.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,380
    edited April 2013

    Interesting age and regional skews on the "spare room subsidy" withdrawal

    Net "fair"
    OA: +7
    18-24: +13
    25-39:+22
    40-59: +7
    60+ : -8

    London:+16
    ROSou:+17
    Md/Wales: +9
    North:-2
    Scot: -24

    That is consistent with what I have been saying on here. That those most affected by the spare room subsidy are empty nesters who were allocated their council houses on the basis of kids who have now grown up and left and still want to keep "their" house. And those most in favour are the next generation with young kids needing a family home and none being available.



  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    All those claiming Labour doesn't need policy this far out...

    @iainmartin1: Two years from an election. Welfare v hot topic. Labour needs a proper policy. It has, it seems, a discussion paper for "debate".
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    LOL and so true - I reckon he must have his own office and bedroom on the premises by now

    RT @chrisg0000: #OwenJones84 on tv again????...is he the Labour Minister for the BBC?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,796
    @Alanbrooke. Here's a thin Alex sitting on the Queen's right


    http://0.tqn.com/d/urbanlegends/1/0/A/7/queen_and_soldiers.jpg
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Re Downton, lets not forget it was two Americans, Baliban & Altman who got Julian Fellowes into writing with Gosford Park - another pre-cursor of Downton.

    Up to then the BBC had "nurtured Fellowes' talent" by getting him to act posh fops......
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Let the pb indignados remember this is a class war.The ruling class,such as the Torygraph and the bankers,are charging us for something we already own.Two-Jags is riding to Labour's rescue.
    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/john-prescott-wage-war-tories-1816307?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
  • IHWIHW Posts: 8
    edited April 2013
    The country is broke
    Welfare costs are out of control.
    All this talk of 'reform' and 'modernisation' and 'making work pay' (etc) completely misses the point: the welfare State is over, finished, kaput: too many people's votes were up to be bought by politicians who wanted power more than they wanted sane economics.

    [Random figures]
    If underlying growth is 3% and a raft of incompetent regulations and policies reduces that to 1.5%, then people will see their standard of living rise and people may not be easy to persuade that The Alternative Party can do better.

    When underlying growth is close to zero, those same rules and regulations (and there are ever-more of them, daily) mean growth is negative - at around -1.5%. Since that's political as well as economic suicide, the Treasury and BoE then throw the entire kitchen sink at the problem, from QE, to 0.5% interest rates to £120 billion pa of Keynsian stimulus - and all of those maintained for 5-6 years.

    The end result? The economy has not moved one iota, since the root cause of the problem - government itself - is not something that politicians are remotely interested in reviewing and looking at.

    The mirror shows an unforgiving image - and it's a deeply unflattering one. The almost complete absence of supply-side economic reforms lies at the heart of our economic (and social) woes: Farage has tapped into this underlying discontent and national understanding of the problem. No other politician seems prepared to grasp what nearly everyone else instinctively understands - we're massively over-regulated and in an attempt to eliminate risk and danger, we're also eliminated the incentives to take risks and seek rewards.

    @Antifrank:

    I had thought better of you than that. Powell was one of the most gifted and principled politicians of his, or any other, time and had a phenomenal brain and drive - he was the youngest Brigadier in the British army, having risen through the ranks in astonishingly short order.
    Farage has captured the public mood perfectly - but he was doing this not since 2010, but since 2001 or so, when anyone with eyes could see that spending and immigration were out of control and infrastructure spending woefully inadequate to cope with 50 million in the UK, let alone with 70 million plus.

    Your comment is thus both inaccurate and insulting to both men- each has powerful strengths and equally powerful shortcomings. Powell: 'the finest mind in British politics - until it's made up!' and Farage is both a smoker and has a market-trader's mind:@ quick to seize and opportunity, not so good at long-term strategy.

    Both, though, are genuine leaders, and both are far more in touch with the mood of the people than the metrosexual, metropolitan, middle-class mediocre men who have governed Britain for much of the last 45 years. Both are prepared to say what it is un-PC to say and both are prepared to speak 'to the people' rather than hide behind PR-speak sound-bites.

    The exact antithesis, in fact, to the empty-headed, vacuous imaged Wilson/Blair clones who lead the other three Parties.

    A better comparison, antifrank, IMO, would have been with Galloway (unkind) or Salmond (flattering): both are 'men of the people' in that they very succesfully articulate the aspirations of those they represent and are figureheads for A Political Movement - whether you like or agree with them or not!
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2013
    "If stepping up the rhetoric on welfare was supposed to boost CON poll ratings it has yet to work

    Of course it won't work. It just reinforces that the fops are flapping around desperately in the gutter because they are terrified of the kippers and trying anything. It just reverses all the detox and reinforces that the tories are the nasty party.

    "Ukip equal highest levels with both YouGov and Opinium "

    The incompetent fops banged on about the EU, they banged on about immigration and now they are banging on about welfare. None of it will work.

    Nor is Cammie's crumbling IN/OUT referendum on the EU going to help their cause one bit. FPT:
    Grant added: "Even if there was a move to amend one or two articles, the UK would not gain leverage: Britain's partners could bypass a veto as they did with last year's 'fiscal compact' treaty, which was negotiated outside the framework of the EU."

    Government sources said the prime minister still believed he could achieve a better deal for the UK whether or not there was a new treaty.
    Those poor gullible eurosceptics and tea party tories. Made to look like complete idiots after the flounce that wasn't and now Cammies cast iron referendum is falling to pieces. They just never learn.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    John Rentoul has written a very good article in the Independent today:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/david-cameron-restocks-his-emotive-arsenal-8563080.html
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    I guess the trick for the Tories will be to reform the system without showing too much relish. I'd ditch the 'losing more of lots v losing some of little' argument, for starters.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,796
    Someone wrote that there are only 180 families with 11 or more children claiming benefit. Surely all families with children get benefit whether they claim it or not?
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2013
    @ScottyP

    No sign of the scottish tory surge in the polling and the real world scotty_P.

    image

    Every sign of just how toxic omnishambles Osbrowne is as Cammie tries everything to avoid confronting the obvious fact that he is the tories single biggest problem.

    How soon do you expect your 'tory majority nailed' on now?

    LOL

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @IHW My point was simply that in 1974, Enoch Powell made his preference for Labour over the Conservatives clear:

    http://centrallobby.politicshome.com/latestnews/article-detail/newsarticle/enoch-powell-and-the-1974-election/

    Nigel Farage is looking to pull the same stunt in 2015, but he does not lead the UKIP cohort, he simply acts as the repository for the disaffected. Polling has made it very clear that much of the UKIP support dislikes David Cameron but utterly despises Labour.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Roger said:

    Someone wrote that there are only 180 families with 11 or more children claiming benefit. Surely all families with children get benefit whether they claim it or not?

    And 40,000 with 5 or more claiming benefit.

    There is strong support for capping benefit at 2:

    Net support: +32


  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,380
    edited April 2013
    Carola said:

    I guess the trick for the Tories will be to reform the system without showing too much relish. I'd ditch the 'losing more of lots v losing some of little' argument, for starters.

    Carola, I could not agree more. The softly, softly approach of IDS over this Parliament has at times frustrated with its slowness but it is the correct approach. Bashing the poor and the recipients of welfare is not just stupid and cynical, it is very bad politics too. As the changes come in over the next 2 years the tone is going to be very important if the tories are to convert the majority views shown in the polling into votes. Too aggressive and the majority in this country will recoil.

  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    DavidL said:

    Carola said:

    I guess the trick for the Tories will be to reform the system without showing too much relish. I'd ditch the 'losing more of lots v losing some of little' argument, for starters.

    Carola, I could not agree more. The softly, softly approach of IDS over this Parliament has at times frustrated with its slowness but it is the correct approach. Bashing the poor and the recipients of welfare is not just stupid and cynical, it is very bad politics too. As the changes come in over the next 2 years the tone is going to be very important if the tories are to reflect the majority views shown in the polling into votes. Too aggressive and the majority in this country will recoil.

    Yep - there's been some interesting comment/discussion elsewhere re the dynamic between IDS and Osborne on this.

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    IDS quiet man £53 wk update.

    Over 450,000 people have signed the petition now.

    https://www.change.org/en-GB/petitions/iain-duncan-smith-iain-duncan-smith-to-live-on-53-a-week

    A triumph for the fops! ;)
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    These Sun polls need to be taken with a very large pinch of salt after previous experience has not created trust.The impression my experience creates is very similar to this poll on the vile bedroom tax.
    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/poll-reveals-more-half-people-1815925
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,465

    Utter aside, but I just got an ad for Defiance. If I remember correctly that's a TV series which is working alongside a videogame of the same name, and the choices that players opt for will have an impact upon the TV show, and the plot of the TV show may alter the game as well.

    I think that's the first time such a thing has been attempted.

    Great idea. I always fancied seeing a play with alternative endings and the audience voting by secret ballot in the interval for what they wanted to see (good for repeat business too).

    On topic, I think the Tories are having a hard time adjusting to the reality of multi-party politics.

    The game used to be that the voters didn't have to think you were good, they just had to think you were better than the other lot. So if you discovered that a lot of voters were concerned about something - in this case they think a lot of people are taking the piss out of the welfare system - you could talk up the problem, and make a couple of gestures towards doing something about it, and get their votes.

    But that doesn't work if there are more parties. If you talk up a problem, you need to have a plan to actually solve it - otherwise people who believe you about the problem will vote for another party that sounds like they'll do more about it than you. It's particularly tricky for welfare, because as far as public perceptions go the problem is insoluble: Whatever the government does, the papers are still going to be telling the voters that people are taking the piss out of the system.

    Clever and perceptive. The poll suggests that people simultaneously think that most benefits recipients do deserve the help but that more needs to be done to squeeze the others out. Interestingly there isn't clear support for reducing benefits spending - people are more worried about abuse than generosity.

    But they're not really in a mood to change voting intention anyway, for reason we've discussed before. The Government parties keep thinking they've found a killer issue - Europe, income tax allowance, benefits. Sometimes the voters agree with them, sometimes not, but it doesn't change the underlying position that 40ish% of voters didn't want the coalition, think it's worse than Labour, and plan to vote it out.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    These Sun polls need to be taken with a very large pinch of salt after previous experience has not created trust.The impression my experience creates is very similar to this poll on the vile bedroom tax.
    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/poll-reveals-more-half-people-1815925

    Polls in the Sun are garbage but polls in the Mirror are Gospel?

    If you are going to try and troll like a PB Leftard, you need to up your game a little
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724

    These Sun polls need to be taken with a very large pinch of salt after previous experience has not created trust.The impression my experience creates is very similar to this poll on the vile bedroom tax.
    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/poll-reveals-more-half-people-1815925

    Are you casting aspersions on the integrity of YouGov or on ComRes? ComRes have a habit of using leading questions [which is why they acquired the nickname ComedyRes or those to which there really isn't much of an answer as they're Agree or Disagree only polls IIRC.

    Quoting from the Mirror for political opinion is akin to citing LHQ - they couldn't be more on message if they tried. Only Tony Parsons goes off piste - as an Old Labour stalwart. Even the Express is more independent of the Tories as they prefer Kippers.
This discussion has been closed.