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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » First post-budget poll sees CON up 2 and Ukip down 2 – but

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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,288
    Falklands stuff on Al Beeb.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-21884556
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    @tim

    Yes, they're just beginning to see it in all it's master strategic glory.
    Henry Pryor ‏@ HenryPryor

    #Help2Buy scheme not just eligible for some 2nd homes - also for existing home-owners to remortgage? http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/001482d2-9252-11e2-851f-00144feabdc0.html
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,783
    @Roger:

    "The rights and the circumstances of the people in the Falkland Islands must be uppermost in our minds. There is no question in the Falkland Islands of any colonial dependence or anything of the sort. It is a question of people who wish to be associated with this country and who have built their whole lives on the basis of association with this country. We have a moral duty, a political duty and every other kind of duty to ensure that that is sustained.

    The people of the Falkland Islands have the absolute right to look to us at this moment of their desperate plight, just as they have looked to us over the past 150 years. They are faced with an act of naked, unqualified aggression, carried out in the most shameful and disreputable circumstances. Any guarantee from this invading force is utterly worthless—as worthless as any of the guarantees that are given by this same Argentine junta to its own people.

    We can hardly forget that thousands of innocent people fighting for their political rights in Argentine are in prison and have been tortured and debased. We cannot forget that fact when our friends and fellow citizens in the Falkland Islands are suffering as they are at this moment."

    http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/commons/1982/apr/03/falkland-islands

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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,101
    "This is a desperate situation. 2 days??! That's no contingency at all"

    And of course the EU has just upset nice Mr Putin.

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    test
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    @another_richard - when Mr Putin's personal advisor stated that Russia ought to have control of Cyprus in return for bailing them out - it said it all.

    And Cyprus' Finance Min has been holed up in the Kremlin for most of this week - what a mess for an Ezone country to be cap in hand to gangsters and their ilk in preference to the ECB beggars belief.

    I didn't think it was possible to handle a bad situation this appallingly - and the EU manage it again. It's too far fetched for Yes, Minister.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,994
    Incidentally, thanks to the mod chap who very rapidly deleted the annoyingly swift spam on the pb2 article just now. It's much appreciated.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    LOL

    RT @aintreeinfo: So the forecaster got it right. The way Aintree is at the minute you'd be better off with Franz Klammer riding rather than Ruby Walsh
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,942
    edited March 2013
    Morning all from a very snowy North East Derbyshire !

    Who else has a tonne of the white stuff ?
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,783
    Ken Clarke ("one Tory MP" in the BBC version) was one of the Argentine appeasers:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/margaret-thatcher/9947164/Kenneth-Clarke-opposed-fighting-Argentina-over-Falklands-Thatcher-papers-show.html

    "Kenneth Clarke argued against fighting Argentina to win back the Falkland Islands, saying Britain should “blow up a few ships but nothing more”, newly-released files disclose today."
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,783
    edited March 2013
    On Cyprus the Telegraph reports the latest plan is to maintain the <€100 guarantee but implement a 40% haircut on everything above that....


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9947147/Cyprus-overhauls-two-biggest-banks-to-stave-off-collapse.html


    That should finish off their offshore banking business pdq.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I hope more move here myself.

    "The overall worth of the 101 people on the Asian Rich List has increased by 10 per cent, to £45 billion, while the number of Asian billionaires [resident in the UK] has risen from three to seven." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/9946994/Family-firms-key-to-rising-wealth-of-Britains-Asian-billionaires.html
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,218
    Hello

    Like the new format. Just one question: is it possible to reorder the comments i.e. newest / oldest first.

    Thanks and greetings from a freezing North London!
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,994
    Miss Cyclefree, is it snowy there?
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    Carlotta,

    The EU would love to crush the Cypriot offshore banking model. They hate anything not in line with their central control model. They hate Ireland's corporation tax rate. They hate the City.

    In my case the feeling is mutual.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,942
    @JosiasJessop Were they offered a British passport too ? Anyway Antifrank's offer sounds perfectly reasonable, they do build bloody good roads wherever they go too (See Rwanda in the Top Gear special) ;)
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    @cyclefree

    If you read on PB main site - its newest first, if on the message board bit [that's behind your user name] its newest last.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,942
    40% ?! They are going to piss off alot of 'well connected' Russians with that much, you'd be better off heading to Vegas to launder your cash with that sort of haircut. Wouldn't like to be a cypriot bank manager or politician if they do that...
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    For anyone who thinks they've got a lot of snow... try this from Russia - now that's what I call a drift...

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BF8sF3oCAAAjJyS.jpg:large
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,942
    edited March 2013
    Riiight so I back England and Lay the draw. 250-1 NZ at close. What a terrible move that was. Least its only a tenner. Not even going to look at Betfair current odds.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,711
    Well at least this system is better...but the password restrictions are silly!
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,054
    @Pulpstar : I'm going from memory, but I think the Argentinians made two offers: firstly one for the islanders to get the money and go back to Britain. When that was rejected, the offer was amended for the same amount, but with them being allowed to stay. That too was rejected.

    All from memory, so treat with a pinch of salt. I think it was sometime around 1979-80.

    An early morning quiz for PBers: can anyone tell where my profile picture shows? It's a fairly distinctive location.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,218
    @Morris Dancer: it's snowing a bit but I doubt it will stick. Bloody cold, though. Thank God I got all my insulation done and as my neighbour is completely refurbishing his house, there is lots of spare wood outside for the fire!

    Now I need to find how to change my avatar. I look like a demented child.

    On Cyprus, if they're sitting on all these gas reserves, why the hell don't we bail them out in return for first dibs on the gas.?
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,892
    edited March 2013
    @Carlotta. "On Cyprus the Telegraph reports the latest plan is to maintain the <€100 guarantee but implement a 40% haircut on everything above that....<br />"

    Good move. That should remind the Russian mobsters and their Cypriot patsies that a laundry is somewhere where you wash clothes
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    NoSpaceNameNoSpaceName Posts: 132
    @Josias - It is Tantallon castle, with Bass Rock in the background. A great place.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,218
    @Roger: except that some of the money above 100,000 euros will be legitimate savings, pension money etc. It's appropriation of other people's property. That sets an appalling precedent.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,994
    Miss Cyclefree, just click your username and you'll reach your profile. Hover the cursor over your avatar/picture and the option to change it will appear.

    It's snowy underfoot and snowing now. The hound will probably be pleased.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    @cyclefree - you can upload any pix you like under Edit Your Profile.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,218
    Thank you Plato and MorrisDancer. Let's see if this works - our hound - who whatever the weather is champing to go out in it.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,942
    edited March 2013
    @Cyclefree It would increase our national debt, also we'll need a bloody long pipeline going through alot of countries. Russia on the other hand actually has cash, also they'll only need to do a deal with Turkey (Or failing that, Bulgaria (Which won't be a problem) to pipe through to Russia. From there they can link it into their main infrastructure.

    The possibility of Russian battleships harbouring up in Nicosia is practically nil FOR THE MOMENT (Though no doubt they will reserve the option, just a warfleet would look a little too imperialist) but of pipes, oil tankers and oil wells being there.. very high.

    Anyway didn't they sell the rights or some such to Israel ? In which case they've probably stuffed themselves...
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,892
    @Jessop. "And where do you fall on the islanders' right of self-determination?"

    This is too big a question to get into here. If you believe that facts on the ground are the only determining factor then the Israeli's building on occupied land as fast as they can is clearly the way to go whatever the UN might say.

    Suffice to say that I was impressed that Argentina has got 100% support for their claim among the nations of South America. I suspect their perspective is less likely to be skewed than ours particularly as British chauvinism is involved.

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    Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,818
    Testing new comment system ....
    So far, I really like it. I was concerned about the "newest first" regime, but I've found that after reading the header, you can go in through politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com and see the conversation from top to bottom. Nice work, and thanks to Mike, Robert and Max.
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    SchardsSchards Posts: 210
    I think this opposition is the first to entirely give up the pretence that it wants what is best for the countryrather than what is best for the party. The desperate attacks on the budget for something, anything just amply demonstrate this vile trait of a vile party.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,218
    @Pulpstar: thanks. Maybe we could do a deal with the Russians though. We need gas; we also have an interest surely in Cyprus not going bust and it would show that there is an alternative to the ludicrous EU-enforced austerity where the survival of the euro is put above that of the people and countries it is meant to serve.
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    hughphughp Posts: 11
    Although the Lib Dems are still doing poorly, or very poorly, in Labour-held urban wards, last night's council by-election results do tend to confirm that they are now recovering in other types of ward, and particularly in those where the Conservatives represent the only serious opposition to them. As there will be many such Conservative - Lib Dem contests in the forthcoming County Council elections, particularly in the South and South-West, it may well be that the oxygen of favourable publicity for Lib Dem gains in these areas will give the party a much-needed boost - or so we Lib Dems hope !
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,994
    Miss Cyclefree, what sort of breed is (s)he? Border Collie?
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    volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Thumbs up for the new system.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,054
    @NoSpaceName : Yep, somewhere I've only visited once when I walked past, and want to visit it again. Indeed, I'd love to do all that stretch of coast between Edinburgh and Berwick again.

    On Cyprus, what evidence is there behind these claims of Russian mafia / mobster money in the banks being widespread? The way some people are speaking, you'd think that *all* of the Russian money in the bank is dodgy.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Interesting to see on the Vanilla stats how many Views this discussion has had - its 1.4k so far.

    Anyone know if this is from individual users or just page refreshes?
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @hughp

    Yes, the exception to the Lib Dem collapse in London are those areas where the Lib Dems hold GE seats. Precisely the kind of areas where it is important for them to retain support.
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    BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    Test
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    My solution to the password problem, incidentally, was to use one of my normal passwords and keep adding the numeral 1 until the system was satisfied.
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    FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Cyclefree

    Both us and the Germans have missed a trick re Cyprus bailout and have looked too short term.

    I do not know if Cyprus has reached any agreement with an oil major to exploit their gas, as presumably they could not afford to do it themselves. Seems a no-brainer for either UK or Germany.

    My new avatar is a pic from the county where \i was born and brought up.
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    BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    I may be being dumb, but how do I reply to someone on this system? I tried to reply to Plato but just got her profile.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,942
    edited March 2013
    @Roger What rot. The Falklands have only ever been inhabited by Falklanders. It is a very simple situation, they all wish (bar 3) to remain the Falkland Islands and a British Overseas Territory.

    The situation in Israel is completely different. The palestinians have been displaced there and a two state solution needed. Anyway here is the view of the 'other' population in the Falklands, the Chileans. http://en.mercopress.com/2012/02/13/chilean-community-in-falklands-plan-to-write-a-letter-to-president-pinera

    “we want the Chilean Government to remember that there is a piece of Chile here in the Islands….the problems Great Britain and Argentina have are issues between them, we are for the Falklands and Falkland Islanders and for what they want.”

    The Falkland Islanders haven't bulldozed any of their homes, there are not stones and bullets thrown between the populations. In fact I'd be willing to bet the racial harmony is better than many parts of the UK. They respect the Falklanders right to self determination, it is a nonsense to compare it to Israel - Palestine.
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Neil, I inform you that David Prescott lives in Greenwich...
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    JamesMJamesM Posts: 221
    Morning all. First, I thought Michael Gove was very impressive on Question Time last night. Clear and passionate in his contributions with a dose of self-deprecation thrown in.

    On the comments system, thanks to Robert et al. for the changes. A couple of things I have noticed: first, if I write a comment and then login it seems to not post my comment and I have to write it again. Second, on older threads it removes the post time if they were posted the previous day. Not a huge issue, but something I thought I would flag up.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,942
    @JamesM Why did he give up on the idea of a single exam board. I was fairly agnostic on the rest of his education plans but I thought his plans for a single exam board were sensible enough. OIr would it be bloody EU competition law or some such getting in his way ?
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,711
    Changed my picture to my old home town as well.. I'll be very impressed if anyone get it.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,054
    For those who didn't catch it before, question time's being repeated on BBC at ten this morning.

    I don't know how long they've been doing this for, but it's a useful repeat.
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @Andrea

    I look forward to the expose on Guido's site! "Shock as son of Labour politician is discovered to live in a Labour seat that is about to become vacant!"

    Wait for the cries of nepotism to rise up!
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    PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    Morning all. Nice to see the nesting season over before Spring even starts.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited March 2013
    @Neil

    For a random avatar - yours is perfect ;^ )
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    JamesMJamesM Posts: 221
    @Pulpstar I don't think he actually said the reasons last night, he just said he listened and decided it was a bridge too far. Someone else may know the reasons though.
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    @Neil

    We will discover that sons of Labour politician choose their living arrangements based on the age of sitting MPs.
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @Plato

    It's a little premature ... I'm not drunk yet!
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,027
    edited March 2013
    Not quite true, Pulpstar, re the Falklands population, but AFAIK the current population are all descendants of British immigrants, or British immigrants themselves.
    There was certainly no "aboriginal" population.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,942
    @Neil God help my people of Coventry. I've not looked but at a guess I'd say it is Euan Blair for Cov North-West. *Goes to check*
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,054
    @Financier : that's an easy one (I hope!) Glastonbury Tor.

    Another place I want to walk again.
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    FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    edited March 2013
    I'm not entirely happy with Vanilla, but am willing to wait for Junior to work on the templates.* What worries me is this; another popular web-site* has just lost it's hosting due to the fact that it received more than 3-million page-impressions per-annum. It has fewer - though more informed - contributors than this site!

    I fear that OGH cannot afford this system. Unfortunately the viable solutions - WordPress and vBulletin - require hosting systems (and we all remember why Junior dumped his servers)....

    * Vanilla does not have a "Developers Guide" that is open. I'm killing-time at the mo' and would have offered my services.

    ** Think Defence.
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    FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    JJ

    You are right. My favourite place is Ebor Rocks which is high on the south edge of the Mendips where you can park and gaze over the Somerset countryside below (Including Glastonbury) and it looks like a relief map.

    A good walk is from Bath Abbey to Wells Cathedral - you can start near Monkton Coombe to make it a bit shorter.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,711
    Financier: I lived in Wells for about 6 years. Wonderful place.
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Morning All

    @Slackbladder – Is your avatar a picky of the Southend pier railway, Southend-on-Sea ?
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    IcarusIcarus Posts: 907
    Slackbladder

    Barmouth?
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,711
    SimonStClare: Nope...South coast.
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    LucyJonesLucyJones Posts: 651
    I like the appearance of this "new lokk" pb.com. But how do you put an avatar up? I see everyone else appears to have figured this out already,
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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215
    @Plato,

    No, that's a photo of Neil sober.
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    @fluffythoughts Correct. The cost of Vanilla is a real worry. We can see from usage so far that we will be in the higher rate when the month's free trial is over.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,711
    Nope: Try Hampshire :)
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,054
    @Slackbladder : Hythe pier. The question is was it taken before or after a maniac captain piloted a boat through the middle...

    Another place I've walked, in this case many, many times. It's a pleasant place, and that part of Southampton Water is always busy with shipping.
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    IcarusIcarus Posts: 907
    We are taking a cottage in Cornwall (Landrake near Saltash ) in 2 weeks time- any ideas for things must do pubs/restaurants must go to round there. Apparently my wife will have been married for 40 years and wants to celebrate/drown her sorrows.
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @JohnO

    Ouch!

    I see ColinW's Mum missed her chance to say hello to us all when we briefly had the old style PB back last night.
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    I assume Roger is just trying to wind people up. Anyone that can't tell the difference between a situation involving a people displacing another people in the last few years, and a situation where one people have lived in a place for nine generations with no previous population, clearly is below creationist levels of intelligence.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,711
    JJ: got it!!, Yes, the oldest operating pier tram in the world :) One for Sunil there.
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    @JohnO

    Nice pic, John, but who's the shady looking geezer to your right?
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    LucyJonesLucyJones Posts: 651
    Oh... and I notice you can't go back and edit any typos away. Never mind - I will simply have to be more careful.

    (As an aside, I read "Fifty Shades" on my holidays last year. Complete and utter sh*te from start to finish. Anyway, having done so, I was expecting something completely different from "vanilla forums", if you catch my drift.)
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    @LucyJones - just roll your mouse over the top right of your post, and you can edit it!
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited March 2013
    @LucyJones - go to Edit Your Profile and hover over your avatar - it gives you an option to upload any pix you like.

    And you can edit - put your cursor in the top right corner of your comment and a wheel appears - click on it and its says Edit - click on it and you can.
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    Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,818
    @Life_ina_market_town
    http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/507/#Comment_507

    Easy answer - life isn't binary. On the measure of how high the deficit would be and how much debt we'd owe, the Coalition Government is still beating the plans of the former Government hands down. Darling would have failed all three measures of the Darling plan (according to the IFS analysis) and the deficit would be tens of billions higher.
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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215
    edited March 2013
    @PtP

    Look, I'll do ANYTHING for that peerage. I wonder if he's lurking this morning. Hi Dave!
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,942
    @OldKingCole And the Argentinian population is basically Spanish. But they do not hold a spanish flag over Buenos Aries..
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    @Slackbladder

    Chichester...or maybe Havant?
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    From Labour List: "Diane Abbott refuses to rule out London Mayoral bid"
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @MikeSmithson

    I knew it was too good to be true. Is there anything to be said for supplementing the ad revenue with a way for regular posters to set up a direct debit to contribute to costs monthly? It would be more reliable / predictable than the donate button (which often causes me trouble to operate because I can never remember what email / password combination I use for PayPal). Not sure if that would raise enough to meet the likely shortfall.
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    IcarusIcarus Posts: 907
    edited March 2013
    Think your picture of a blow up sex toy is very nice Lucy!

    .....and so are the cherubs that replaced it - Like the edit button!
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,994
    On cost, perhaps a suggested percentage (5% or maybe 10%) of profits from winning tips others offer could help. It'd also encourage more tips and those that pay out would have the added bonus of helping to fund the site.

    Could bookies also help with costs? I imagine the site helps drums up business both directly and through its media profile.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,994
    Oh, and Miss Jones, you *can* edit posts. When the cursor is over a post you wrote a cog appears on the top-right. Click it and (for an hour after posting) you can edit.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Pricing for Vanilla platform

    http://vanillaforums.com/plans
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,323
    edited March 2013
    @Pulpstar

    Erm...weren't there some Indian chappies there before the Spanish arrived, Pulpy?

    Test edit.

    Cool!
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Fantastic betting tip coming up

    I've just set up Henry G's piece which has a brilliant political betting tip at a very long price which won't last five minutes once I click publish.


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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    @Pulpstar. Like I said, I suspect Roger is just winding people up.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,942
    @PtP checked it on wiki, yes there were. It was very sparsely inhabited and the 'conquistadors' weren't all that nice to them. The admixture of Argentians as given on wikipedia indicates a certain amount of well quite frankly.. rape I suspect.
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
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    FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    @Pulpstar

    ...some 'solutions' here ?

    http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/634/#Comment_634

    It's not just the software. The move to disqUS was prompted by hosting issues. [Remember the dieing-days of www -> www7, not least during GE2010?]

    Junior cannot spend hours doing basic server admin. So disqUS offered a software solution that abstracted server-support and maintenance. Whatever package OGH goes for must minimise the support costs whilst supporting a suitable framework for this blog to operate within.
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    @Peter_the_Punter

    I believe there was an indigenous populations. The Indians were mainly in India.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,942
    @Socrates Very good idea.
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    OT: Good morning. Well Ukip won a council seat last night and Tories keep losing their's. I would rather trust that than YouGov which way the wind is blowing.

    And talk about wind, It's blowing cold and all that snow is heading London way. Brrrrr!
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    @Socrates

    Is that so, Socco?

    Guess that's why the Argies not very good at cricket.
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    @Andy_Cooke
    'Darling would have failed all three measures of the Darling plan'
    We simply don't know whether or not that would have been the case because the last administration didn't produce a comprehensive spending review which set out how Darling intended to meet his obligations. You might say, therefore, that the Darling Plan was empty rhetoric. But the correlative to that conclusion is that this government's fiscal policy was based on similarly empty rhetoric. It set out a fiscal mandate in June 2010 and turned out to be completely unprepared to do the heavy lifting required to meet it.
This discussion has been closed.